Optimists slightly outnumber pessimists among California consumers, according to a quarterly survey by Chapman University.
Improvement in the job market, higher home prices, and a stock market spike likely outweighed the impact of higher payroll taxes and gasoline prices, according to the university’s Anderson Center for Economic Research.
It was the first time in nearly six years that those surveyed showed more positive than negative sentiment.
Despite the uptick, however, fewer of those surveyed this quarter, as compared to three months ago, said they plan to spend money on big-ticket items, including cars, refrigerators and dishwashers.
“It’s kind of a wash,” said Anderson Center Director Esmael Adibi. The consumer sentiment index was pegged at 100.4, but “to really show confidence it has to be way over 100,” he added. The highest it has been since the survey began a decade ago was 110 in the third quarter of 2004.
The current spending plan index, one of the survey’s indicators, dipped from 105 to 97.6 this quarter, meaning that more than half of people plan to spend about the same or less than they did before. Adibi said high gas and payroll taxes may have curbed consumers’ immediate spending plans.
Nonetheless, it was a marked improvement over a year ago, when the current spending plan index was at 72.7. This translates to about 8 in 10 of those surveyed saying they plan to spend the same or less than before.
The university sends out 5,000 postcards with five questions to random California consumers and gets about 500 responses. The questions cover respondents’ personal finances, views of the economy overall and planned spending.
The survey, the only one specific to California, is based on different methods than national surveys, but the upward trend in long-term confidence is consistent with what economists are seeing across the country, Adibi said.
Contact the writer: mroosevelt@ocregister.com or Twitter: @margotroosevelt
