Anti-austerity unpopular with voters, finds inquiry into Labour's election loss

Polling undertaken for an independent review being led by Jon Cruddas, the Labour MP and former coordinator of the party’s 2015 manifesto, shows Britain’s voters do not back an anti-austerity message but instead believe the country must live within its means and make cutting the deficit its top priority.

The findings, given to the Guardian, are likely to make difficult reading for those that say Labour’s path to electoral recovery lies in the party adopting a stronger anti-austerity stance than in the run-up to this year’s election.

The polling was commissioned before Jeremy Corbyn made his surprise surge to frontrunner in the race for Labour’s leadership, partly due to his anti-austerity policies. Its findings will fuel the debate between prospective party leaders about how to construct an economic policy with popular public appeal. There is common agreement on the fact that Labour’s plan for the economy failed to convince voters, but not on the reasons behind that failure.

Commenting on the findings, Cruddas, who is respected across the party, stressed the need to get voters back onside. “Labour is in the death zone,” he said. “We are currently fighting for our life. We need a no-ifs-and-no-buts explanation of why we lost and how we reconnect with voters.

“On the basis of this data, the public appear to think anti-austerity is a vote loser. We cannot ignore that. We can seek to change the views of the public, but it’s best not to ignore them.”

The independent inquiry involves a wide range of groups inside the party, including Compass, Progress, the Fabian Society, the Co-operative party, and the Labour group of the Local Government Association.

The polling shows that 56% of those surveyed agree, and just 16% disagree, with the statement: “We must live within our means, so cutting the deficit is the top priority.”Of those surveyed who voted for the Conservatives at the 2015 election, 84% agreed with the statement and virtually none disagreed. Amongst Labour voters 32% agreed while 34% disagreed. Ukip and Liberal Democrat voters agreed in proportions of 63% and 58% respectively.

The finding has led Campaign Company, the polling firm undertaking the research for Cruddas, to conclude that, “the unpalatable truth for the left is that the Tories did not win despite austerity, but because of it”. Amongst working-class voters (NRS social grade C2 DE) 54% agree with the need to contain the deficit and 15% disagree.

Cruddas said: “Our task is to help Labour to reconnect with the electorate to win in 2020. It will mean accepting some difficult truths. The majority of voters in England and Wales supported the Tories’ austerity measures. Voters did not reject Labour because they saw it as austerity-lite. Voters rejected Labour because they perceived the party as anti-austerity lite.”

Cruddas continued: “We also asked people to agree or disagree with a number of other statements relating to the economy. 43% agree that: ‘I am most likely to vote for the political party that redistributes wealth from rich to poor’, against 22% who do not. And 44% agree – 37% amongst Labour voters – that: ‘ I am most likely to vote for the political party that puts my financial interests first’, against 17% – 27% amongst Labour voters – who do not.”“The electorate in England and Wales is economically radical and financially conservative. But financial responsibility comes first,” Cruddas said.

The polling also confirms that English voters were put off by the suggestion that Labour would be dependent on the SNP, or of the possibility of an anti-austerity SNP-Labour alliance.

Of English and Welsh voters, 60% agree that they “would be very concerned if the SNP were ever in government”, compared with 15% who disagree. A majority of Conservative, Lib Dem and Ukip voters agree, as do a plurality of Labour voters.

The equivalent number amongst Tory voters is 86%. This presents a dilemma for Labour since it badly needs to win Conservative voters back to form a majority government, but unless it is performing so well that there is no risk of a Labour-SNP coalition, many voters will be wary of backing Labour. The continued strong presence of SNP MPs in Scotland could give the Conservatives the chance to play the SNP card at a second Westminster election in 2020.

Cruddas says: “The Tories won because voters believed they would cut the deficit, even though a majority understand that the economic system is unfair. The Tories’ message on the deficit was clear, Labour’s was not. The Tories were trusted to manage the country’s finances, Labour was not.”

“The response to the SNP amongst Welsh and English voters reflects the increasingly federal nature of the UK, and the growing salience of a politics of identity and belonging. 63% of voters say that their English or Welsh identity is important to them.”

Amongst all voters, 44% agreed that “Labour is a mess and needs a serious overhaul” and 31% believed that, with right leader, the party will be back in power relatively soon, suggesting that a new Labour leader emphasising continuity is less likely to be effective than someone who represents radical change. Of the party’s own voters, 24% believe Labour is “a mess”, although 71% believe the party can succeed under a new leader.

As part of the exercise, the polling firm asked voters to state their main reason they voted for their chosen party. The Campaign Company say the results show the extent to which the issue of the country’s economic deficit emerged unprompted. Responses included:

• “I trust them [the Conservatives] more in terms of dealing with the economy and the deficit”
  
• “The economy and the deficit – I think that if we changed whilst progress was being made then it could set it all back again. I think the Conservatives needed more time to get the debt and economy back to its original ways. I didn’t trust Labour to get us out of it”
  
• “To prevent Labour from forming an alliance with the SNP if Labour won the election”
  

The polling also asked participants what they perceived to be the main message of each political party. With regard to Labour, some voters suggested:

• “[Labour] had no real message except ‘spend, spend, spend’, as they had done when last in power”
  
• “Free stuff! We’ll give you free stuff and somebody else will pay!”
  
• “Chaos, more public spending, more borrowing, more tax! Strong anti-business rhetoric”
  
• “We will bankrupt the UK again if we get back in”
  
• “Lots of schemes dreamed up on the back of a fag packet. Hit the people earning money and give it to people to spend on Sky TV packages”
  

The polling is based on a survey of 3,000 English and Welsh people, representative of age, gender and socio-economic status, using the YouGov panel. It was conducted in early July.