T.F. Green set for growth in passengers, destinations

WARWICK — Is T.F. Green Airport poised to take off again in 2016?

After a decade of declining or stagnant passenger traffic, Rhode Island's main airport may see growth ahead, according to the airport's chief executive and an airline industry expert.

The airport is positioned, when final numbers are in sometime this month, to break even or show a slim increase in the number of passengers flying in or out  in 2015. This comes after a 6-percent loss in 2014 completely wiped out a 4-percent gain in 2013, the first year since 2005 that the airport had posted positive numbers.

"I think that the industry is starting to level off and pick up again," airport chief executive Kelly J. Fredericks told The Providence Journal. "2016 is going to be a grinding year again. Nothing sexy. Every seat's a victory."

"Seats" are the currency that airports and airlines deal in. When an airline puts more seats into a market, either by adding flights or by increasing the size of the planes on existing flights, travelers can buy more tickets and airports can count more passengers passing through their gates.

Already, American Airlines has announced it will begin flying between Green and Chicago's O'Hare International Airport in April, adding 90,000 seats this year. With most planes flying out of Green near their passenger capacity, Fredericks expects most of those 90,000 seats to show up as passengers in 2016's year-end tally.

Aviation industry analyst Mike Boyd, president of Boyd Group International, predicted a 7-percent increase in the number of seats flying in or out of  Green in 2016.

"Southwest is going to grow its seats in PVD," Boyd told The Providence Journal. "They're putting their resources where they can make the most money. Apparently, one of those places is Providence."

Compared with other airports in the region, what will make Green attractive to airlines this year? Good road access from Rhode Island and nearby parts of Massachusetts and Connecticut, and a strong business market in those areas, Boyd said.

"Airlines do not chase passenger volume," Boyd said. "Where can I make the most money, not where can I carry the most passengers." A complex array of factors can make one airport more profitable than another, including ticket prices and landing fees. 

That means 2016 may be a departure from recent years, when the place that airlines could make the most money was at large hub airports, such as Boston's Logan International. That reduced service to smaller airports, including Green and Manchester-Boston Regional Airport, in New Hampshire.

Green fell from a high of 5.7 million passengers in 2005 to 3.7 million in 2012 and has settled near that number since. Manchester also hit its high in 2005, serving 4.3 million passengers. It fell to 2.5 million in 2012, and then 2.1 million in 2014. It will struggle to equal that number in 2015, based on numbers for the first 11 months of the year.

Logan's trajectory has been different. It suffered after the 9/11 terrorist attacks in 2001, which included two jets that took off from Logan and were crashed into the Twin Towers of the World Trade Center in New York. By 2006, Logan had climbed back to its pre-9/11 level of 27.7 million passengers, and grew again the next year, to 28.1 million. Passenger traffic then declined for two years, reaching 25.5 million in 2009. Ever since, it has grown every year, reaching 31.6 million in 2014 and on pace to approach 33 million when 2015 numbers are counted.

Logan's growth has been fueled by the competition of two low-fare carriers: Southwest Airlines and JetBlue Airways.

It is that competition that may bring good news to Green in 2016, pushing Southwest to seek growth in Rhode Island, according to Boyd.

He predicted that the 7-percent increase in seats among all airlines will translate into a 6.5-percent boost in Green's passenger traffic by the end of the year. "Most of that 7 percent in seats they're adding, they're gone. They're full," he said. "You've got a strong year ahead."

Fredericks's predictions were more modest.

"I'd love to see 3- to 4-percent growth," he said.

While not divulging conversations between airport officials and  airline executives, Fredericks said he expects growth both through increased travel on existing routes and the addition of new nonstop destinations.

In addition to Southwest Airlines, Fredericks is hopeful of increased service from JetBlue, which began flying out of Green in November 2012 but has not augmented service since.

Boyd disagreed: "They're focused on Boston. You are where you are with JetBlue."

Fredericks and Boyd cautioned against expecting new carriers to announce service at Green in the coming 12 months.

"You've got what you can get in terms of airlines," said Boyd. 

"We've got everybody on our wish list. We want to see our incumbents grow," said Fredericks, adding that he expects that that growth would come through domestic, not international, service.

Boyd concurred. "I don't see any growth in long-haul international stuff."

It's hard to say whether a thriving airport helps the state's economy grow or whether a thriving economy helps the airport grow, but few dispute they are intertwined.

"The strength of a local economy and the competitiveness of a local airport are linked," Laurie White, president of the Greater Providence Chamber of Commerce, told The Journal.

"T.F. Green is part of our marketing pitch to businesses," the state's commerce secretary, Stefan Pryor, said.

White concurred. "It's a really important element in recruiting industry," she said. "The ease and convenience — that's a major selling point."

White said the airport gives Rhode Island businesses the means of traveling for meetings as well as delivering their products.

Said Pryor: "T.F. Green Airport connects Rhode Island with the nation and with the world."

More passengers at the airport means more business for Rhode Island companies.

Growth in passenger traffic,  if it materializes, won't be the only progress at Green in 2016.

In 2015, the airport finished work on $44 million in safety improvements to its secondary runway, completed a $33.2-million facility to recover propylene glycol deicing fluid before it runs into nearby wetlands, and, at a cost of $7.5 million, moved youth sports fields that stand in the way of the extension of the main runway.

In 2016, attention will turn to the $87-million extension of that runway. Adding about 1,500 feet to the main runway, bringing it to about 8,700 feet, will allow longer nonstop flights  and improve reliability on shorter flights, where weather conditions sometimes force airlines to reduce the number of passengers on a flight.

Main Avenue, which runs past the end of the runway, will be realigned into a curve to make room for the extension. The roadwork is expected to be done in the spring.

Soon after that, work should begin on the extension of the main runway. It will remain open during the construction, much of which will happen at night, during hours when flights are not scheduled. The extended runway is planned to open Dec. 7, 2017. 

"There's a sense of optimism, and, I think, rightfully so," Fredericks said. "The industry is bouncing back. We're well positioned to be the recipient of some of those increased seats in the market. I'm looking forward to 2016."

Analyst Boyd said Fredericks's optimism is justified.

"Everything is healthy in Providence," he said. "You're not going in the wrong direction."

—pparker@proviencejournal.com

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On Twitter: @pparker