News Crop News El Niño Coming Back With a Vengeance -- Forecasters The chance of an El Niño happening this summer has increased to 65%, up from 50% last month. Forecasters are now favoring an El Niño onset during the May-June-July time period, vs. the June-July-August favored in April’s outlook. By Dave Mowitz Dave Mowitz In 1982 Dave came to Successful Farming as a senior editor first covering agronomic topics and then machinery. He went on to serve the nation's farmers as executive editor of Successful Farming Magazine and editor of the Ageless Iron Almanac, a bimonthly publication covering the hobby of agricultural collectibles. Dave recently retired from the Successful Farming family but continues to serve the organization as a contributing editor. Successful Farming's Editorial Guidelines Published on May 20, 2014 Trending Videos Close this video player Circling far above the earth, NASA's Jason-2 satellite has been watching something brewing in the Pacific. And if climatologists are right, what the Jason-2 has been observing could be the beginning of the one of the most potent El Niño events in recent years . . . as big, if not bigger, than the El Niño of 1997. The chance of an El Niño happening this summer has increased to 65%, up from 50% last month. Forecasters are now favoring an El Niño onset during the May-June-July time period, vs. the June-July-August favored in April's outlook. "The forecasters are much more optimistic that this is going to develop," says NOAA's Climate Prediction Center meteorologist Michelle L'Heureux. The years 1997–98 made El Niño a household word. That was one of the strongest El Niño events ever seen, with extreme weather occurring on several continents. For example, North America experienced one of its warmest and wettest winters on record during 1997-98. Scientists at the Climate Prediction Center of the National Weather Service foresee a 65% chance of a transition to El Niño in the summer of 2014. The good news behind this development is that if El Niño returns, the American West and Southwest could "see major relief next winter from the long-lasting drought," says climatologist Bill Patzert, of NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory. "Further, the very frigid winter in the upper tier of the U.S this past winter could do a flip to mild next winter." This new El Niño does has a dark side for North America, however. It could establish 2014 or 2014 ars the warmest years on record as it is coupled to higher average global temperatures. The 1997-1998 El Niño caused 1998 to be one of the four warmest years on record, according to NOAA. Was this page helpful? Thanks for your feedback! Tell us why! Other Submit