Confident Toth faces uphill battle in SD4 runoff

Underwhelming fundraising numbers and an unwillingness to directly attack his opponent would appear to have handicapped state Rep. Steve Toth in his bid to defeat fellow Republican state Rep. Brandon Creighton in an Aug. 5 special state senate election.

Since last July, Creighton, R-Conroe, has out-raised his statehouse colleague nearly six-to-one and spent more than $1.6 million on the campaign to replace state Sen. Tommy Williams, R-The Woodlands, who resigned last October after more than a decade representing Senate District 4.

Toth, R-The Woodlands, who placed a distant second against Creighton in a four-way race on May 10, spent just under $280,000 total on the election and raised even less in the last year.

Nonetheless, Toth, who toppled five-term incumbent state Rep. Rob Eissler in a 2012 Republican primary despite having a much smaller war chest, said he is confident history will repeat itself.

"Special interest groups in Austin have poured a ton of money into this campaign. They want politicians that want to maintain the hierarchy of the political establishment and I don't fall into that category," Toth said. "It wasn't an issue (two years ago). It won't be an issue this time, either."

Early voting for the Aug. 5 runoff begins Monday and runs through Friday.

The senate district, a rambling, Republican-leaning stronghold with nearly 816,000 residents, stretches from The Woodlands east down through Montgomery County to the Gulf Coast and spans portions of northern Harris County.

Creighton and Toth were the leading vote-getters in the four-candidate election, besting businessman Gordy Bunch and former District 4 Sen. Michael Galloway.

The huge gap between the candidates' campaign war chests is the main reason Creighton is the clear frontrunner going into the Aug. 5 runoff, said Rice University political scientist Mark Jones.

"You don't need an equal amount of money to be competitive, but being outspent by a factor of 20 is a problem," he said, referring to the July 15 campaign reports showing Creighton spent $673,528 between May and June while Toth spent just $30,787.

Creighton's fundraising edge is partly attributable to his previous plan to run for agriculture commissioner and the $860,000 he had raised before officially switching to the senate race in October.

Experts agree Toth's weaker financials do not guarantee his defeat. However, the 53-year-old businessman also is at a disadvantage because he has not come out swinging at Creighton with the vigor and intensity he could have, said University of Houston political scientist Brandon Rottinghaus.

"It had the makings of a fight where you saw a very conservative member going up against another conservative member and trying to out-duel them by being more to the right than the other," Rottinghaus said. "It hasn't really shaped up like that, exactly, at least in public."

He said Toth had the opportunity to paint himself as more conservative than Creighton, a 43-year-old lawyer, particularly on the recent surge of Central American children crossing the border into Texas. While Creighton primarily has characterized the crisis as an humanitarian issue, Toth also has called it an "invasion," a position that has won him support from right-wing anti-illegal immigration groups like Houston's Stop the Magnet.

"Toth definitely could have made that contrast clearer," Rottinghaus said. "He hasn't really taken the fight to Creighton, which is, in a competitive primary season, essential."

Toth said his job was to focus on the issues, not question his opponent's every policy stance: "I'm not going to do negative on Brandon. I'm not wired that up that way."

Still, asked what differentiated him from his opponent, Toth, who is wrapping up his first term, was quick to throw Creighton's high fundraising figures back in his face, saying his eight years at the Capitol inexorably ties him to lobbyists and the status quo.

"I spent a fraction of that amount of money," Toth said. "And, again, it's because they want someone who is going to respond and cater to their whims and wishes."

Prior to the May election, pundits said that characterization – Toth, the defiant tea party favorite versus Creighton, the perceived insider who serves as the house GOP majority leader – could give Toth an electoral edge despite the fundraising gap because low-turnout special elections tend to attract far right voters. Those voters, they speculated, may be turned off by Creighton's caucus leadership position, linking him to House Speaker Joe Straus, who frequently has had to defend himself against charges he is too moderate.

Jones questions that argument going into the runoff, noting the two men's positions on immigration and most other issues are nearly identical. An analysis shows they voted the same way 90 percent of the time during the last legislative session, he said.

"Tea party groups tend to like both of these candidates," Jones said. "I don't think any of the movement conservatives truly question Brandon Creighton's conservative credentials."

Rottinghaus said the Straus link is too weak and "inside baseball" for it to matter even to the most plugged-in voter and would have to be packaged with a stronger argument that Creighton is not conservative enough.

Creighton said his fundraising success is proof of his Republican bonafides, calling Toth's characterization of his insider ties "disingenuous." He said he won his party leadership position, even though his voting records skews to the right of many of his colleagues, because they knew "I could keep people in the room and find a solution."

"Voters know Steve and I are both more conservative members of the legislature, and now it's more about who is more effective," Creighton said. "I think I've always been able to maintain an unblemished conservative message. But that doesn't mean 'bomb-thrower' and that doesn't mean saying 'no' at every turn."

Creighton clenched 45 percent of the vote on May 10, short of the majority needed to win the race outright. Toth, on the other hand, took in less than 24 percent, only 2 percent ahead of Bunch.

Jones said Toth still could gain an edge if turnout in the runoff is low.

His "road to victory is a very low-turnout special election that is dominated by the most conservative tea party voters," he said.

The benefit of low-turnout special elections, Jones said, is that candidates have a very good idea of who the likely voters will be and Creighton has the resources to reach them.