Drama, weirdness could headline Emmy Awards

Convicts or nerds? Meth dealers or philosophical detectives? Baroque witches or plainspoken Yankees?

"Orange Is the New Black," "The Big Bang Theory," "Breaking Bad," "True Detective" and more of the best in television will battle at the 66th-annual Primetime Emmy Awards, airing at 7 p.m. Monday on KAMR-TV, with Seth Meyers as host.

Yes, it's early and on an odd night: NBC didn't want to interfere with its Sunday night football schedule.

That's not the only weirdness associated with this year's Emmy Awards. Loose categorization rules have the eight-episode HBO show "True Detective" competing as a drama, while the 13-episode FX series "American Horror Story: Coven" and its 10-episode network sister "Fargo" are competing in the miniseries categories.

But no matter how they're classified, just about every category is packed with drama.

Here's your guide to the major categories of the night. You also can go online to see picks in all of the other competitive categories.

Drama

¦ Outstanding Drama Series

The nominees: "Breaking Bad" (AMC), "Downton Abbey" (PBS), "Game of Thrones" (HBO), "House of Cards" (Netflix), "Mad Men" (AMC), and "True Detective" (HBO).

One of the two most difficult races of the night to call, this one boils down to the final season of a hugely popular basic cable series and the first season of a critically acclaimed premium network series starring one of the most popular actors working today. "Breaking Bad" won last year and, up until this winter, was a lock for this year, especially after its stunning final few episodes aired last summer. But "True Detective" got tongues wagging immediately, artistically (directed by the brilliant Cary Joji Fukunaga) and for its stars, including recently minted Oscar winner Matthew McConaughey. Personally, "Detective" never completely clicked with me, though I do admire a lot about it. I just have to give this one to "Breaking Bad."

Will and should win: "Breaking Bad"

Dark horse: "True Detective"

¦ Outstanding Lead Actress in a Drama Series

The nominees: Lizzy Caplan, "Masters of Sex" (Showtime); Claire Danes, "Homeland" (Showtime); Michelle Dockery, "Downton Abbey" (PBS); Julianna Margulies, "The Good Wife" (CBS); Kerry Washington, "Scandal" (ABC); and Robin Wright, "House of Cards" (Netflix).

Danes, the winner of the last two races, can't be totally counted out, though the wind seems to be out of her show's sails. Wright does great work on her Netflix series, though she chose an oddly muted episode to submit. So did Margulies, though she'll benefit from good will for the series' best season yet and for picking an episode in which her character grieved Josh Charles' Will (though silently, as is her wont). But Washington would make history as the first black actress to win in this category, and her series is still red-hot.

Will win: Kerry Washington

Should win: Julianna Margulies

Dark horse: Robin Wright

¦ Outstanding Lead Actor in a Drama Series

The nominees: Bryan Cranston, "Breaking Bad" (AMC); Jeff Daniels, "The Newsroom" (HBO); Jon Hamm, "Mad Men" (AMC); Woody Harrelson, "True Detective" (HBO); Matthew McConaughey, "True Detective" (HBO); and Kevin Spacey, "House of Cards" (Netflix).

Hamm, shockingly, still hasn't won, but at least he has another shot. I'm still stunned that Daniels won last year, but I'm not worried about a repeat. As with the drama series category, this one comes down to Cranston and McConaughey. Cranston has been rewarded amply for his performance as Walter White, but he knocked it out of the park in the final few episodes. But the McConaissance buzz is still out there, even after McConaughey's Oscar win for "Dallas Buyers Club," so I bet it'll take him over the finish line here, too.

Will win: Matthew McConaughey

Should win and dark horse: Bryan Cranston

¦ Outstanding Supporting Actress in a Drama Series

The nominees: Christine Baranski, "The Good Wife" (CBS); Joanne Froggatt, "Downton Abbey" (PBS); Anna Gunn, "Breaking Bad" (AMC); Lena Headey, "Game of Thrones" (HBO); Christina Hendricks, "Mad Men" (AMC); and Dame Maggie Smith, "Downton Abbey" (PBS).

Baranski has a good shot here, again banking on the good will the show engendered this year. Well, she would have a good shot if it weren't for the spectacular work delivered by Gunn in the final "Breaking Bad" episodes (and for the fact that Gunn won last year, and Emmy voters like to reward folks over and over again). Headey also had a sensational season, but Gunn will triumph.

Will and should win: Anna Gunn

Dark horse: Christine Baranski

¦ Outstanding Supporting Actor in a Drama Series

The nominees: Jim Carter, "Downton Abbey" (PBS); Josh Charles, "The Good Wife" (CBS); Peter Dinklage, "Game of Thrones" (HBO); Mandy Patinkin, "Homeland" (Showtime); Aaron Paul, "Breaking Bad" (AMC); and Jon Voight, "Ray Donovan" (Showtime).

One of the tougher categories to call. Paul, a past winner, is the most easy character to like and feel sympathy for on "Breaking Bad," and a sweep for the show would most likely put him in the winner's circle as well. Dinklage has won before too, though, and he had a killer season again, despite being locked in a dungeon most of the time. And Charles has the benefit of his character dying, not to mention industry admiration for such a strong season. I think it's Paul for the win, but I feel shaky about it.

Will and should win: Aaron Paul

Dark horse: Josh Charles

¦ Outstanding Writing for a Drama Series

The nominees: "Breaking Bad" - "Ozymandias," Moira Walley-Beckett (FX); "Breaking Bad" - "Felina," Vince Gilligan; "Game of Thrones" - "The Children," David Benioff and D.B. Weiss (HBO); "House of Cards" - "Chapter 14," Beau Willimon (Netflix); and "True Detective" - "The Secret Fate of All Life," Nic Pizzolatto (HBO).

Again with the "Breaking Bad" / "True Detective" battle, but this time, "Bad" has the advantage, even though with two nominees, it could conceivably split votes. It's just that "Ozymandias" (in which Hank was killed, Walt kidnapped his baby and Walter Jr. held off his dad with a knife) was one of the most memorable episodes of any drama, any where, any time. It's truly one for the ages.

Will and should win: "Breaking Bad" - "Ozymandius," Moira Walley-Beckett

Dark horse: "True Detective" - "The Secret Fate of All Life," Nic Pizzolatto

¦ Outstanding Directing for a Drama Series

The nominees: "Boardwalk Empire" - "Farewell Daddy Blues," Tim Van Petten (HBO); "Breaking Bad" - "Felina," Vince Gilligan (AMC); "Game of Thrones" - "The Children," David Benioff and D.B. Weiss (HBO); "House of Cards" - "Chapter 14," Beau Willimon (Netflix); and "True Detective" - "The Secret Fate of All Life," Cary Joji Fukunaga (HBO).

"Felina," the series finale of "Breaking Bad," certainly had its showy moments, but nothing compares to the six-minute tracking shot in "True Detective." An instant classic.

Will and should win: "True Detective," Cary Joji Fukunaga

Dark horse: "Breaking Bad," Vince Gilligan

Comedy

¦ Outstanding Comedy Series

The nominees: "The Big Bang Theory" (CBS), "Louie" (FX), "Modern Family" (ABC), "Orange Is the New Black" (Netflix), "Silicon Valley" (HBO) and "Veep" (HBO).

"Modern Family" has won four years in a row, but it scored fewer nominations this year, which I bet signals some voter fatigue. "Orange" is the hip new kid on the block and it stands a strong chance, but I predict that "Veep," the show that's actually the funniest on the whole slate (which doesn't necessarily matter to voters), takes gold for its outstanding third season.

Will and should win: "Veep"

Dark horse: "Orange Is the New Black"

¦ Outstanding Lead Actress in a Comedy Series

The nominees: Lena Dunham, "Girls" (HBO); Edie Falco, "Nurse Jackie" (Showtime); Julia Louis-Dreyfus, "Veep" (HBO); Melissa McCarthy, "Mike & Molly" (CBS); Amy Poehler, "Parks and Recreation" (NBC); Taylor Schilling, "Orange Is the New Black" (Netflix).

It's a crying shame that Poehler has yet to win for her outstanding work as Leslie Knope on NBC's little sitcom that could, but I fear she won't win again this year. Instead, look for Louis-Dreyfus to take home her fifth Emmy. If "Orange" sweeps everything else, though, Schilling could sneak in here.

Will win: Julia Louis-Dreyfus

Should win: Amy Poehler

Dark horse: Taylor Schilling

¦ Outstanding Lead Actor in a Comedy Series

The nominees: Louis C.K., "Louie" (FX); Don Cheadle, "House of Cards" (Showtime); Ricky Gervais, "Derek" (Netflix); Matt LeBlanc, "Episodes"; William H. Macy, "Shameless" (Showtime); and Jim Parsons, "The Big Bang Theory" (CBS).

Most categories this year were packed with good surprises. This wasn't. What an uninspiring lineup. Parsons will most likely pick up his fourth award for TV's most popular sitcom. If I had my druthers, C.K. would win for his most ambitious season yet.

Will win: Jim Parsons

Should win: Louis C.K.

Dark horse: Ricky Gervais

¦ Outstanding Supporting Actress in a Comedy Series

The nominees: Mayim Bialik, "The Big Bang Theory" (CBS); Julie Bowen, "Modern Family" (ABC); Anna Chlumsky, "Veep" (HBO); Allison Janney, "Mom" (CBS); Kate Mulgrew, "Orange Is the New Black" (Netflix); and Kate McKinnon, "Saturday Night Live" (NBC).

Bowen typically wins here, but she's in for some major competition with Janney and Mulgrew. Janney already won an Emmy this year for her guest work in Showtime's "Masters of Sex," and I think voters will reward her for her ability to mix comedy and drama in her fairly underrated network sitcom. If not Janney, look for Mulgrew, whose character was the most fully formed early on in "Orange" (and remember, voters are only considering the show's first season).

Will and should win: Allison Janney

Dark horse: Kate Mulgrew

¦ Outstanding Supporting Actor in a Comedy Series

The nominees: Fred Armisen, "Portlandia" (IFC); Andre Braugher, "Brooklyn Nine-Nine" (FOX); Ty Burrell, "Modern Family" (ABC); Adam Driver, "Girls" (HBO); Jesse Tyler Ferguson, "Modern Family" (ABC); and Tony Hale, "Veep" (HBO).

Hale seems likely to score a second award in a row, especially since he submitted a particularly hilarious episode. But Driver has the cool factor (especially with his casting in the new "Star Wars" movie), and Braugher is a longtime Emmy favorite who has never won for a comedy (and one in which he's particularly uproarious in his own dry way).

Will and should win: Tony Hale

Dark horse: Andre Braugher

¦ Outstanding Writing for a Comedy Series

The nominees: "Episodes" - "Episode 305," David Crane (Showtime); "Louie" - "So Did the Fat Lady," Louis C.K. (FX); "Orange Is the New Black" - "I Wasn't Ready," Jenji Kohan and Liz Friedman (Netflix); "Silicon Valley" - "Optimal Tip-To-Tip Efficiency," Alec Berg (HBO); and "Veep" - "Special Relationship," Simon Blackwell, Tony Roche and Armando Iannucci (HBO).

Will and should win: "Orange Is the New Black," Jenji Kohan and Liz Friedman

Dark horse: "Silicon Valley"

¦Outstanding Directing for a Comedy Series

The nominees: "Episodes" - "Episode 309," Iain B. MacDonald (Showtime); "Glee" - "100," Paris Barclay (FOX); "Louie" - "Elevator, Part 6," Louis C.K. (FX); "Modern Family" - "Vegas," Gail Mancuso (ABC); "Orange Is the New Black" - "Lesbian Request Denied," Jodie Foster (Netflix); and "Silicon Valley" - "Minimum Viable Product," Mike Judge (HBO).

Will win: "Modern Family," Gail Mancuso

Should win: "Louie," Louis C.K.

Dark horse: "Orange Is the New Black," Jodie Foster

Movie/Miniseries

¦ Outstanding Miniseries

The nominees: "American Horror Story: Coven" (FX), "Bonnie & Clyde" (Lifetime), "Fargo" (FX), "Luther" (BBC America), "The White Queen" (Starz) and "Treme" (HBO).

"Fargo," which exists in the same universe as the beloved Coen Brothers movie yet was its own entity, should never have worked at all. But it was easily one of the best series of any genre of the season, without a doubt. "Fargo" will cruise to a victory here, largely because "True Detective" was entered as a drama.

Will and should win: "Fargo"

Dark horse: Umm, "Coven," I guess? Seriously, "Fargo" can't lose.

¦ Outstanding Television Movie

The nominees: "Killing Kennedy" (National Geographic Channel), "Muhammad Ali's Greatest Fight" (HBO), "The Normal Heart" (HBO), "Sherlock: His Last Vow" (PBS) and "The Trip to Bountiful" (Lifetime).

HBO's searing "Normal Heart," an adaptation of the historic, era-defining Larry Kramer play, is a sure bet, especially considering the love it got in other categories. "Sherlock," oddly placed here instead of as a miniseries or even a regular series, might have stood a chance any other year.

Will and should win: "The Normal Heart"

Dark horse: "Sherlock: His Last Vow"

¦ Outstanding Lead Actress in a Miniseries or Movie

The nominees: Helena Bonham Carter, "Burton and Taylor" (BBC America); Minnie Driver, "Return to Zero" (Lifetime); Jessica Lange, "American Horror Story: Coven" (FX); Sarah Paulson, "American Horror Story: Coven" (FX); Cicely Tyson, "The Trip to Bountiful" (Lifetime); and Kristen Wiig, "The Spoils of Babylon" (IFC).

Tyson should be a sentimental favorite here, bookending her 2013 Tony Award in the stage version of this beloved drama. (Confession: I didn't see Driver's movie or much of "Spoils.")

Will and should win: Cicely Tyson

Dark horse: Jessica Lange

¦ Outstanding Lead Actor in a Miniseries or Movie

The nominees: Benedict Cumberbatch, "Sherlock: His Last Vow" (PBS); Chiwetel Ejiofor, "Dancing on the Edge" (Starz); Idris Elba, "Luther" (BBC America); Martin Freeman, "Fargo" (FX); Mark Ruffalo, "The Normal Heart" (HBO); Billy Bob Thornton, "Fargo" (FX).

What an outstanding category. I wouldn't be dismayed to see anyone win here, but I can't imagine that Ruffalo won't for being the angry, galvanizing center of "Normal Heart."

Will and should win: Mark Ruffalo

Dark horse: Billy Bob Thornton

¦ Outstanding Supporting Actress in a Miniseries or Movie

The nominees: Frances Conroy, "American Horror Story: Coven" (FX); Kathy Bates, "American Horror Story: Coven" (FX); Angela Basset, "American Horror Story: Coven" (FX); Allison Tolman, "Fargo" (FX); Ellen Burstyn, "Flowers in the Attic" (Lifetime); and Julia Roberts, "The Normal Heart" (HBO).

Roberts has a great speech in "Normal Heart" and, naturally, all the movie star power in the world, but I think the previously unknown Tolman, who stole the show over high-power co-stars like Martin Freeman and Billy Bob Thornton, takes it.

Will and should win: Allison Tolman

Dark horse: Julia Roberts

¦ Outstanding Supporting Actor in a Miniseries or Movie

The nominees: Matt Bomer, "The Normal Heart" (HBO); Martin Freeman, "Sherlock: His Last Vow" (PBS); Colin Hanks, "Fargo" (FX); Jim Parsons, "The Normal Heart" (HBO); Joe Mantello, "The Normal Heart" (HBO); and Alfred Molina, "The Normal Heart" (HBO).

"Normal Heart" obviously boasted some meaty parts for its actors, reflected in the multiple nominees here. But Bomer stands out for his heart-rending performance, and not just because he shed 40 pounds to portray his dying character.

Will and should win: Matt Bomer

¦ Outstanding Writing for a Miniseries, Movie or Dramatic Special

The nominees: "American Horror Story: Coven" - "Bitchcraft," Ryan Murphy and Brad Falchuk (FX); "Fargo" - "The Crocodile's Dilemma," Noah Hawley (FX); "Luther," Neil Cross (BBC America); "The Normal Heart," Larry Kramer (HBO); "Sherlock: His Last Vow," Steven Moffat (PBS); and "Treme" - "... To Miss New Orleans," Eric Overmyer and David Simon (HBO).

Kramer, who's in poor health now, remains a firebrand and perhaps could be too controversial for Emmy voters. I hope not. "Normal Heart" is a masterpiece of modern American theater, and the long-delayed film adaptation captured its spirit well.

Will and should win: "The Normal Heart"

Dark horse: "Fargo"

¦ Outstanding Directing for a Miniseries, Movie or Dramatic Special

The nominees: "American Horror Story: Coven" - "Bitchcraft," Alfonso Gomez-Rejon (FX); "Fargo" - The Crocodile's Dilemma," Adam Bernstein (FX); "Fargo" - "Buridan's Ass," Colin Bucksey (FX); "Muhammad Ali's Greatest Fight," Stephen Frears (HBO); "The Normal Heart," Ryan Murphy (HBO); and "Sherlock: His Last Vow," Nick Hurran (PBS).

Murphy can certainly run hot and cold, but "Normal Heart" was a passion project, and he gave it his all.

Will and should win: "The Normal Heart"

Dark horse: "Sherlock: His Last Vow"

Variety

¦ Outstanding Variety Series

The nominees: "The Colbert Report" (Comedy Central), "The Daily Show with Jon Stewart" (Comedy Central), "Jimmy Kimmel Live" (ABC), "Real Time with Bill Maher" (HBO), "Saturday Night Live" (NBC) and "The Tonight Show Starring Jimmy Fallon" (NBC).

Fallon is getting all the buzz these days, so he well may wrest this one away from the dominating Comedy Central duo of Colbert and Stewart. In fact, I'll bet he does, and voters will save their chance to reward Colbert next year for the final season of his parodic show before taking over for David Letterman.

Will win: "The Tonight Show Starring Jimmy Fallon"

Should win and dark horse: "The Colbert Report"

Reality

¦ Outstanding Reality-Competition Program

The nominees: "The Amazing Race" (CBS), "Dancing with the Stars" (ABC), "Project Runway" (Lifetime), "So You Think You Can Dance" (FOX), "Top Chef" (Bravo) and "The Voice" (NBC).

"Amazing Race" has won most of the awards in this category, so it's not too unlikely that it'll win again, even though "Top Chef" and "Voice" have won the last two years, respectively. "SYTYCD" is the best of this lot, but I rue that "RuPaul's Drag Race" was overlooked again.

Will win: "The Voice"

Should win: "So You Think You Can Dance"

Dark horse: "Top Chef"