Claude Brodesser-Akner | NJ Advance Media for NJ.com
Feel the churn
Garden Staters are already voting with their feet, switching political parties in record numbers. But what does that really mean for the presidential primary?
Explaining the 'Trump Effect' on the N.J. electorate
In this short video, Statehouse reporter Claude Brodesser-Akner explains how the presidential campaigns of businessman Donald Trump and U.S. Sen. Bernie Sanders coincided with large amounts of party affiliation change in New Jersey, but did little to change the "blue" complexion of the Garden State.
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Big numbers of N.J. Democrats became Republicans...
Trump predicted he'd bring "millions and millions" of previously disengaged citizens to vote for him. In the last six months, New Jersey's seen enormous numbers of Democrats crossing party lines and registering as Republicans to vote in the 2016 primary.
... and an increasing number of N.J. Republicans became Democrats
Between the start of the year and the 2016 primary registration deadline, traditionally Republican counties like Morris and Sussex saw the largest percentage increases of Republicans becoming Democrats compared with 2012.
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Claude Brodesser-Akner | NJ Advance Media for NJ.com
But even more N.J. unaffiliated voters became Democrats
In Gov. Chris Christie's home county of Morris, unaffiliated voters became Democrats at more than twice the rate they became Republicans from January to June 2016. Across New Jersey, 30,781 unaffiliated voters became Democrats during the same time period. Compared with the run-up to the 2012 primary, when 9,734 unaffiliated voters became Democrats statewide, that marks a 216 percent increase. Likewise, unaffiliated voters became Republicans in somewhat smaller but substantial numbers: In the 2016 primary, some 16,267 unaffiliated voters joined the GOP since the first of the year, compared with 3,763 in the run up to the 2012 primary.
We don't know why New Jerseyans are switching parties, only that they are
"We're seeing record numbers of people change their affiliation," said Krista Jenkins, director of Fairleigh Dickinson University's PublicMind poll. "It mirrors the polarizing discourse." But whether people are changing parties in reaction to Trump, Sanders or Clinton, or in spite of them, is hard to say.
In heavily Republican counties, Democrats made gains over 2012 with new voters
The highest percentage increases of new voters registering as Democrats showed in Republican-leaning counties like Morris and Sussex, perhaps driven by "the belief that this may possibly be the year that New Jersey's primary would make a difference," according to Patrick Murray, director of the Monmouth University's Polling Institute.
But in Democratic leaning counties, Republican made big gains in signing up new voters
Republicans made some of their biggest gains in new voters in counties where Democrats heavily outnumber Republicans. In Union County, Dems outnumber Republicans almost 3 to 1, and in Salem, Dems have a 3 to 2 edge.
Neither parties added many voters during Trump and Sanders' runs
For all the voter rage that both Trump and Sanders seem to embody, neither has significantly expanded their party’s rolls in New Jersey. According to the state’s Division of Elections, the GOP increased in size by 3 percent and Democrats grew by 4 percent compared with the last election cycle. That's fewer than 30,000 new Republican voters and fewer than 75,000 new Democrats added since the 2012 presidential primary.
Photo by Aristide Economopoulos | NJ Advance Media, for NJ.com
Across N.J., bluer blues and redder reds left the state effectively the same
Despite Trump's promise to reshape the electorate in his favor, "if anything, it looks like that overall, New Jersey is looking more 'blue,' with pockets of increased polarization as a consequence of the Trump effect," according to Davis of FDU.
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