As partners in a firm that specializes in product launches, we regularly get calls from entrepreneurs and brand managers seeking help with their “revolutionary” products. After listening politely, we ask about the research supporting their claims. The classic response? “We haven’t done the research yet, but we know anecdotally that it works and is totally safe.” We’ve been fielding these calls for so long that we can often tell from one conversation whether the launch will succeed.

A version of this article appeared in the April 2011 issue of Harvard Business Review.