초록 열기/닫기 버튼

1991년 이전의 인도 경제성장은 취약하고 불안정한 것이었다. 1980~1982년에 성장률 상승이 있었으나 1982~1988년에 힌두성장률로 회귀했고, 1988~1991년에 큰 도약이 있었으나 곧바로 1991년에는 외환위기를 맞게 되었다. 이것은 인도경제의 근본적인 취약성을 확인시켜주었다.반면에, 1991년 이후의 경제성장은 강건함을 보여주었다. 이것은 위기 이후의 경제정책이 근본적인 경제개혁에 초점을 맞추었기 때문이다. 1990년대의 개혁에 따라 인도경제는 그 내용면에서 커다란 변화를 보여주었다. 1980년대에는 대외채무가 경제호황의 원인인 동시에 위기의 원인이 되기도 했으나, 1990년대에는 경제상황에 큰 변수가 되지 않았다. 실제로 1991년 이후 GDP에 대한 외채의 비율이 크게 하락하였다.1990년대에는 인도의 IT산업이 핵심부문이 되었다. 전체 경제가 1991년 자유화정책의 실시 이후 연평균 약 6퍼센트의 성장을 보였던 반면, IT산업은 20퍼센트 이상의 비약적 성장을 기록하였다. IT부문은 인도의 국제수지 흑자와 외환보유고의 증대에 기여함으로써 경제의 성장과 안정에 크게 보탬이 되었다.인도경제는 향후에도 이전과는 다른 고도성장을 기록할 것으로 예측된다. 다만 이러한 성장세의 지속을 위해서는 여전히 남아 있는 규제의 장벽을 지속적으로 철폐해 나가야 할 것이다.


The Indian growth prior to 1991 was fragile and volatile. There was a jump in 1980-82, a return to Hindu rate during 1982-88, a big jump again in 1988-91 and crisis in 1991/92. This volatility in the growth pattern proposes doubts about the sustainability of a over 5 percent growth rate. The 1991 crisis confirmed the fundamental weakness of Indian economy. In contrast, the growth after the 1991 crisis has been proved to be more robust without volatility. This is because the economic policy after crisis has focused on the fundamental economic reforms. The substantial yet half-way reforms of the 1980s gave way to more systematic and deeper reforms in the 1990s. Until 1991 restrictions were the rule and reforms constituted their selective removal according to a positive list approach. But starting with the July 1991 package, the absence of restrictions became the rule with a negative list approach. Due to the 1990s' reforms, Indian economy has shown major changes in its contents. Whereas in 1980s foreign debts were the cause of both boom and crisis, in 1990s they were no longer the major variable in economic growth. After 1991 the ratio of foreign debts to GDP has lowered substantially. In 1990s India's IT industry has become the core sector. While the economy overall has grown since the onset of liberalization in 1991, averaging a real rate of growth of about 6%, the IT industry has grown spectacularly at well over 20%. The IT sector has contributed to India's recent balance of payments surplus and its burgeoning foreign exchange reserves. Indian economy is expected to grow fast in the next decade as in 1990s, but only with the continuation of economic reforms.


The Indian growth prior to 1991 was fragile and volatile. There was a jump in 1980-82, a return to Hindu rate during 1982-88, a big jump again in 1988-91 and crisis in 1991/92. This volatility in the growth pattern proposes doubts about the sustainability of a over 5 percent growth rate. The 1991 crisis confirmed the fundamental weakness of Indian economy. In contrast, the growth after the 1991 crisis has been proved to be more robust without volatility. This is because the economic policy after crisis has focused on the fundamental economic reforms. The substantial yet half-way reforms of the 1980s gave way to more systematic and deeper reforms in the 1990s. Until 1991 restrictions were the rule and reforms constituted their selective removal according to a positive list approach. But starting with the July 1991 package, the absence of restrictions became the rule with a negative list approach. Due to the 1990s' reforms, Indian economy has shown major changes in its contents. Whereas in 1980s foreign debts were the cause of both boom and crisis, in 1990s they were no longer the major variable in economic growth. After 1991 the ratio of foreign debts to GDP has lowered substantially. In 1990s India's IT industry has become the core sector. While the economy overall has grown since the onset of liberalization in 1991, averaging a real rate of growth of about 6%, the IT industry has grown spectacularly at well over 20%. The IT sector has contributed to India's recent balance of payments surplus and its burgeoning foreign exchange reserves. Indian economy is expected to grow fast in the next decade as in 1990s, but only with the continuation of economic reforms.