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Avoiding the cold? You may as well binge. Streaming video is only going to grow in 2019

Mike Snider
USA TODAY

Streaming video blasted beyond any tipping point in 2018 and will command even more attention this year, but challenges lie ahead in the fight for viewers' eyeballs and pocketbooks.

There's no question consumers love watching – and binging – TV and movies via subscription streaming services. Consumers' embrace of Netflix and other services continued to rise in 2018, as about 7 in 10 U.S. households (69 percent) now access a subscription to Netflix, Amazon Prime or Hulu, according to Leichtman Research Group. That is up from 52 percent in 2015, the research firm says.

And many homes are watching more than one service. Overall, 43 percent of U.S. households now have more than one streaming video service, up from 20 percent in 2015, Leichtman Research found in its survey conducted in June and July.

The shunning, shaving and cutting of the traditional pay TV cord and the ascendance of content via broadband – admittedly another cord that comes into the home – is supported in another survey released in March by consulting firm Deloitte, which found more than half (55 percent) of U.S. households subscribe to at least one video streaming service. The average subscriber in the survey paid for three services, Deloitte found.

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The next symbolic milestone – U.S. homes with streaming services surpassing the more than three-fourths (78 percent) that subscribe to traditional pay TV services – could come close to happening in 2019. However, as streaming video spreads, the trend lines have blurred. That's because not all the homes that have access to Netflix and other streaming services are paying for them, says Bruce Leichtman, president and principal analyst for Leichtman Research Group.

"There's a lot of sharing going on," he said. "And we have to keep in mind, these are not 'either or' (because) the majority of all households in America (homes) have both (subscription streaming and pay-TV)."

Streaming video services already outpace pay TV in U.S. homes with broadband (about 80 percent of all U.S. homes, or about 102 million of the 128 million U.S. homes). More than three-fourths of those homes (76.4 percent) use a streaming service like Netflix, Amazon Prime or Hulu, according to research from The Diffusion Group.

Slightly fewer broadband homes, 74 percent, have a traditional pay TV service from a cable, satellite or fiber provider. Another 8 percent use a net-distributed service (or "virtual" pay TV service) such as DirecTV Now or Sling TV, The Diffusion Group found in its survey of 2,000 U.S. adults with broadband service. "Despite subscriber growth for virtual pay TV services, they will not be enough to overcome declines in legacy services," said Michael Greeson, The Diffusion Group's president and co-founder. "We see the entire pay TV sector slowly declining in the next five years."

Streaming leads to more disruption

The next 12 months will bring more streaming options and continued disruption across the media and entertainment landscape. The need for content to compete with Netflix and other streaming video services has already led to AT&T's $85 billion acquisition of Time Warner, which a federal judge approved in June but the Justice Department is currently appealing, and Disney's $71-billion purchase in July of the Fox movie and TV studios and other assets including Fox's 30 percent stake in streaming service Hulu.

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AT&T and Disney both plan to launch new services later this year. And each has already brought new offerings to market: AT&T's WatchTV, with 30-plus channels including A+E, AMC, CNN and TNT, is free to some wireless subscribers or available for $15 monthly to even non-AT&T customers; Disney delivered ESPN+, a $4.99 monthly sports service with MLB, NHL and college games not currently available on the ESPN television channels. Starting in January, ESPN+ will also begin broadcasting UFC events.

Disney's ESPN+ streaming on a television, laptop, tablet, and smartphone.

Disney's expanded streaming subscription play "will impact other streaming video providers that previously licensed Disney-owned content – content that will be redeployed exclusively on the new Disney over-the-top (OTT) media services offerings," wrote John Harrison, global media and entertainment sector leader for advisory firm EY in its recently released report. "This could become an even more important industry-wide theme as (media and entertainment) companies look to own the customer relationship directly."

Another move to watch in 2019, Harrison says, is the bidding for the 22 regional sports networks Disney acquired in the Fox deal. The Justice Department says Disney must sell those to gain its approval of the remainder of the merger.

Ownership of those networks, which include YES (New York Yankees), Fox Sports West/Prime Ticket (UCLA, USC, Los Angeles Chargers, Los Angeles Clippers) and Fox Sports Ohio/SportsTime Ohio (Cleveland Cavaliers, Cincinnati Reds, Ohio State University) could potentially swing some sports streaming clout to the winner.

But traditional media companies such as Disney will face challenges as they attempt to go direct to consumers, says Rich Greenfield, a media and technology analyst with financial services firm BTIG. That's because they are afraid streaming efforts will "disrupt their theatrical, DVD/home video, broadcast/cable network revenue streams," he said in a recent blog post. "Every piece of the video ecosystem has been over-earning for decades, which makes it obvious why nobody really wants change to happen."

Streaming options continue to evolve

In 2018, other new streaming entrants continued to add programming to bolster audiences. Philo, launched by major investors A+E, AMC, Discovery, Scripps and Viacom in November 2017, added to its $16 monthly tier of 40 channels (A&E, AMC, Comedy Central, Discovery Channel, Food Network, HGTV, Nickelodeon, OWN and Viceland among them) with a $20 tier adding another dozen channels including BET Her, Cooking Channel, Discovery Family, MTV Live, Nicktoons and Revolt.

YouTube TV added Turner networks, Sling TV obtained several channels from Discovery, PlayStation Vue gained Smithsonian Channel, and DirecTV Now landed the NFL Network and Cheddar TV.

Meanwhile, fuboTV, which like other live streaming services expanded its lineup of local stations available to subscribers, also began broadcasting of some sports in upgraded quality 4K video.

To compete, new streaming pay TV providers "felt they had to add more and more channels," Greeson said. "Their bundles have gotten fatter, which is antithetical to the original value proposition of a skinny bundle."

Consumers are savvy and sensitive to price and value, he says, noting The Diffusion Group's survey found about 21 percent of broadband homes with a pay TV service (traditional or broadband) were at least considering canceling their service in the next six months. The main reason? The service was too expensive for what they got, 56 percent said.

Watch for the arrival of new skinnier bundles and changes in subscription programming packages "because consumers will demand increasing flexibility to use the video services that they want," he said. 

FuboTV is among the broadband-delivered subscription live TV offerings that are luring some consumers from traditional pay TV services.

But higher prices and ads likely follow

As services added more programming and features, most also hiked prices. DirecTV Now, fuboTV, PlayStation Vue, Sling TV and YouTube TV all announced price increases in 2018.

Consumers can expect additional price increases as the live streaming services adapt to what subscribers want and will pay for. Other services may turn to advertising, even though the Internet rebelled recently when Netflix did a limited test of what it called promotional videos.

But Hulu already has a lower-priced tier for its on-demand video service – not to be confused with Hulu's live TV service, which launched last year and now has 60-plus live channels. Its on-demand library of TV series includes current shows such as "Empire," "Saturday Night Live" and "Grey's Anatomy," as well as others such as "Seinfeld." To watch those without commercials, subscribers pay $7.99 monthly or $11.99 for no commercials.

While the streaming providers "step lightly" into advertising, "there will be more advertising from (them) in the future," said Myra Moore, founder and chief analyst at Digital Tech Consulting.

"This is pretty likely as there have been statements made by Hulu and AT&T about plans to add advertising to streaming services because they are not profitable," she said. "At some point, prices either have to continue to increase or advertising and other promotional efforts be implemented to be profitable."

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Follow USA TODAY reporter Mike Snider on Twitter: @MikeSnider.

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