This paper makes a strong case that global warming has not caused extreme weather events to become any more common.
"It is widely promulgated and believed that human-caused global warming comes with increases in both the intensity and frequency of extreme weather events. A survey of official weather sites and the scientific literature provides strong evidence that the first half of the 20th century had more extreme weather than the second half, when anthropogenic global warming is claimed to have been mainly responsible for observed climate change."
"It is widely promulgated and believed that human-caused global warming comes with increases in both the intensity and frequency of extreme weather events. A survey of official weather sites and the scientific literature provides strong evidence that the first half of the 20th century had more extreme weather than the second half, when anthropogenic global warming is claimed to have been mainly responsible for observed climate change."
The first step in understanding climate change is to recognize the importance of the increase of water vapor. It cools faster and farther on dry, cloudless desert nights than it does on clear nights where it is humid even when there is no dew or frost. This well-known observation demonstrates that water vapor is IR active at earth temperatures (i.e. a ghg), that there is a GHE and that WV is at least a substantial contributor to it.
ReplyDeleteAverage global WV (TPW) has been accurately measured by satellite and reported publicly by NASA/RSS since 1988. The numerical data for April, 2019 is at http://data.remss.com/vapor/monthly_1deg/tpw_v07r01_198801_201904.time_series.txt (last six digits are year-month). This is graphed as Figure 3 in the blog/analysis at http://globalclimatedrivers2.blogspot.com . It has been long enough to establish a trend and a rational approximate extrapolation back to 1700. Comparison of the WV trend with the CO2 trend reveals that, at low altitude, the atmosphere has gained about 6 molecules of WV for each molecule of CO2.
The ‘hash’ at WV wavenumbers in graphs of TOA radiation flux vs wavenumber results from the decline in population of WV molecules from about 10,000 ppmv average at surface to 32 ppmv at top of troposphere (about -50 C). As the population of WV molecules thins out with increasing altitude, more of the emission from WV molecules makes it all the way to space. The ‘hash’ indicates the range of altitudes (temperatures) over which the emission originated. Anything that posits that increased WV has not at least substantially contributed to warming is wrong.
Multiple compelling evidence demonstrates that CO2, in spite of being a ghg, has little if any effect on average global temperature. A likely explanation is that the comparatively small % increase in the number of absorbers at sea level (WV molecules, on average, outnumber CO2 molecules by about 24 to 1) is countered by the large % increase in emitters above the tropopause (where CO2 molecules outnumber WV molecules by about 13 to 1).
Because WV increase is self-limiting, warming of the planet is self-limiting. The increased WV should substantially mitigate if not outright prevent a temperature decline resulting from the quiet sun.
Combining the average global temperature increase from the added WV with a simple approximation of the influence of SST cycles and a solar influence quantified by a proxy which is the SSN anomaly results in a 98+% match with measured average global temperatures 1895-2018. As shown in the blog/analysis the WV increase accounts for about 70% of the average global temperature increase since 1909
The EXCEL file so constructed is fairly easily adapted to solve using data up to any year and projecting from that year. The code, adapted to project from 2005 using only data up to 2005 projected the measured, 5-year smoothed trend temperature in 2018 within 0.05 K.
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