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Five takeaways from New Jersey vs Anaheim:
1. The Devils were out-classed
Lately the Devils have been getting out-chanced at a somewhat alarming frequency. The difference hasn't always been huge but it's been consistent – in eight of the last nine games their opponent has had more looks at 5v5.
With the Devils in the latter half of a back-to-back against a desperate Ducks team, it seemed like a good bet the trend of being out-chanced would continue. And it did.
The Ducks came out firing and completely overwhelmed the Devils. They generated quality looks with ease while the Devils struggled to even get a shot in the early going.
They did push back a little bit – particularly in the 2nd period. It never felt like they could grab control of the game from the Ducks, though. Any time they asked questions, the Ducks came up with an answer in short order.
Anaheim was the better team for the vast majority of the game and they walked away with the result they deserved.
2. Kinkaid shouldn't have started
I didn't agree with the decision to give Keith Kinkaid the net again. I understand riding the hot hand in the midst of a heated playoff push but I thought Cory Schneider was the better option for a few reasons.
Despite Kinkaid's last 10 starts being maybe the best of his career, and Cory Schneider's last 10 perhaps the worst, Schneider *still* owns better numbers on the season.
It's one thing to start Kinkaid on a level playing field. It's another to start him over Schneider in a back-to-back situation.
There's been plenty of studies done –
such as this one – that suggest you should almost never start the same goaltender back-to-back nights.
If the alternative is Joe from the corner store, that makes some sense. If the alternative is a guy with better career numbers, season numbers, and a $6 million salary, it doesn't.
I think the Devils likely would have lost regardless. They did not play well at all. Starting Kinkaid was still a -EV move, though.
3. A defensive disaster
That was one of the worst defensive performances we've seen from the Devils in a while. From start to finish it was ugly. They gave up way too many odd-man rushes and breakaways to a team not exactly known for its speed. There were too many breakdowns in the defensive zone while defending the cycle. The outlet passes weren't crisp. There were a bunch of failed clears. It was just a disaster out there.
Analytically, things looked as bad as they did on the ice. Every player on the roster had a negative on-ice shot attempt differential and Ben Lovejoy(!) led Devils defenders with a 37.5 Corsi For%, which is horrendous.
4. Anaheim's 3rd line killed it
Despite (somehow) not finding the scoresheet, they were absolutely dominant.
Every time they were out there, the Ducks generated sustained pressure in the offensive zone. That, of course, led to a lot of shots and some of the most one-sided possession numbers you will ever come across.
5. Kyle Palmieri was great
By my count, there were two (2) positives from last night's game: Sami Vatanen's pass on the Patrick Maroon goal, and Kyle Palmieri's play.
He was the lone Devil on the ice for more 5v5 chances for than against and he was a one-man shooting gallery leading the game in shots on goal (5), scoring chances (8) and shot attempts (10).
It seemed like he had a little extra for his former team.
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