Augustin Friedel 🚲 🛴 🛵 🚘’s Post

🤑 Challenging market dynamics 🚨 lead to different types of partnerships in the automotive ecosystems 🚗! 🙋🏼♂️ Share your thoughts in the comments! 👉 Remember, these are my personal insights. ✍🏻 —— 1️⃣) Partnerships on all SDV layers to secure next generation of vehicles 🚗: 👉 Volkswagen Group China has a JV with XPENG to develop the next generation of EV 🔋 platform and E/E architecture. Speed 🚀 to deploy features, 30% reduction of ECUs, cost efficiencies 🤑 are the goals. 👉 Renault Group joined forces with Google to deliver the SDV Car.OS and set of customer functions 🤳🏻. Same narrative: Deliver CX solutions with higher speed & lower cost 🤑. —— 2️⃣ Partnerships for low volume projects: 👉 BMW Group just announced a partnership with Rimac Technology on the latest battery 🔋 technology - I would assume for upper end and performance models. 👉 Aston Martin Lagonda Ltd is partnering with Lucid Motors to get access to EV powertrain tech and battery 🔋. The project is already delayed to 2026 😬. —— 3️⃣ Protect or reach economy of scale: 👉 OEMs partner to reach economy of scale 📈 for their portfolio. To harvest investments as long and as profitable as possible is crucial to gain enough financial 💰 freedom for software & EVs 🔋🚗 projects. 👉 Renault Group built the HORSE JV with aramco and GEELY 🇨🇳 to maximize the ROI on the previous ICE investments. 👉 Stellantis is somehow comparable, just without external partners. The conglomerate of brands leverage the set of existing ICE platforms. How successful the approach is could be seen at every quarterly meeting 🤑.  —— 4️⃣) Reduce the complexity and enablement of partnerships: 👉 Partnership announcement of hyper scalers and OEMs could lead to the impression that reaching an SDV is as easy as building with LEGO. The reality is way more complex than that 😬. 👉 Tier 1 suppliers like Continental partner 🤝 with Google or Microsoft to help with the integration of new features. 👉 Tier 0.5 suppliers emerge for new challenges, e.g., ECARX is helping the GEELY Group to build and integrate hardware and software solutions. 👉 Service and development companies like TTTech or ETAS partner with BlackBerry QNX to handle the complexities of unique OEM environments. Seems like Blackberry is delivering the product, the partners do the messy integration 🔀. —— 5️⃣) Tap in to new ecosystems and revenues: 👉 OEMs follow the strategy to enhance the brand ecosystem with services beyond the vehicle 🚗, partnerships are needed to reach the target. 👉 We see partnerships related to smart charging ⚡️, as BMW Group is following through with E.ON. 👉 Mercedes-Benz AG and Mastercard partner to turn the vehicle into a payment device for stops at the gas ⛽️ station, or in car services. 👉 Have a look at the content partnerships that Amazon has with BMW Group, Ford Motor Company or Volvo and Polestar via Google Android Automotive. Exciting times ahead … #automotive #SDV #future #suppliers #OEMs

😬 The journey towards sustainable ♻️ and active urban mobility 🚶🏻🚲 is a complex blend of challenges and promising developments. Have you noticed any trends I've missed? Share your thoughts in the comments! 🙋🏼♂️ Remember, these are my personal insights—eager to hear yours. ✍🏻 2️⃣ Hypotheses on Automotive Transformation's 🚘 Impact: 1. EVs 🔋 & Software-Defined-Vehicles: The surge in EV ⚡️ and SDV 🤳🏻 supply 🚘 seems to slow the uptake of shared mobility and active transport in cities. With new (Tesla, NIO, XPENG) and traditional OEMs (Mercedes-Benz AG, Renault Group, BMW Group) introducing 'digital living rooms on wheels'—offering advanced driver-assistance systems 👾, entertainment 📺, and relaxation 💆🏻♀️ features at lower prices 💸 — customers are inclined towards cars over alternatives. Moreover, traditional OEMs are withdrawing from shared mobility services, and new players like BYD, Tesla, or MG Motor Europe aren't considering entering the shared mobility space. 2. Autonomous Driving (AD) 👾 as a bridge: AD could harmonize 🤝 the interests of the automotive 🚘 industry and urban 🌆 planners. Autonomous shuttles 🚌, if integrated into public transport systems 🚉 and operated as pooled rides, could reduce private vehicle use and support OEMs by opening business-to-government revenue streams. Challenges Ahead: 👉 Will OEMs commit long-term to this vision? ⏳ 👉 How can we prevent failures in smaller markets and ensure the financing of sustainable projects? 🤷🏼♂️ 👉 What steps are needed to standardize operations? 🚧 Recent Market Signals: ✅ Stockholm's 🇸🇪 Ban on Combustion Engines: A significant move by one of Europe's progressive cities, set to take effect by the end of 2024. https://lnkd.in/drZ2ehwT ✅ Paris's 🇫🇷 Cycling Milestone: Bike 🚲 trips have surpassed car rides in the city center, signaling a gradual shift in transportation habits. https://lnkd.in/duD_EFiX ✅ E-Bikes Reducing Car Usage: A study suggests that e-bike 🔋🚲 ownership can significantly cut down car 🚘 dependency. https://lnkd.in/dy8fdGax ➡️ Germany's 🇩🇪 E-Scooter Ban: A controversial decision by public transport operators to ban private e-scooters from busses and trains — hopefully, it's not set in stone. ➡️ NEOM's Scale-Back:Ambitious smart city projects are no guarantee of success, as seen with NEOM's downsizing. https://lnkd.in/dbsQQ6ks ➡️ Policy & Infrastructure Gaps 🚧: These remain significant barriers to promoting cycling and walking. https://lnkd.in/dwpv3a3G Let's continue the conversation on how we can collectively foster a more sustainable urban mobility ecosystem. #UrbanMobility #Sustainability #FutureCities

🤩 AI-enabled solutions are becoming more relevant in the automotive 🚘 value chain🤖. Let’s be clear, it’s just the beginning 🤑. More to be deployed by OEMs, suppliers or startups in the next months and years... 👉 As always, it’s my personal opinion. Please share your AI-ideas and comments ✍🏻 in the comments and klick the re-share button 🔄! ➡️ Based on a survey by Bosch, AI is the top 🔝 technology globally that will be most influential over the next 10 years, followed by 5G 📱 connectivity and AD 👾 tech: https://lnkd.in/d7kKrmdA ➡️ AI 🤖 solutions are applied from research 👩🏻🏫 and development to the usage phase 🤳🏻🚘. Every phase sees different applications but the underlying intentions are going in the same direction. Looking into the automotive and mobility ecosystem, I personally see three main drivers for applying AI👾: 👉 Enhancing the user experience 🌟 - with having different users in mind. In the usage phase it’s of course the driver or the mobility service user. In R&D or manufacturing, the users are the employees. Providers of AI solutions would like to boost their service revenues 💸. 👉 Increasing the efficiency 🚀 of processes and solutions, again with having different aspects in mind. In corporate 🧑🏻💻 context AI could be used to speed up software development and testing processes, or to drive material and design innovations and decisions. The aim is to reduce resources needed and costs 💰 in the value creation process 📉. 👉 Improve safety 🚧 and security 🚨 is the 3rd driver across the automotive value chain that should be fueled by AI. AI enabled solutions are used to improve cyber security aspects. In that ADAS and AD area, AI should increase driver and pedestrian safety. Here are some of the latest industry examples please add your favourites ‼️ 👉 Automotive OEMs like Tesla, Mercedes-Benz AG, BYD or BMW Group ramp up their activities to figure out how to apply humanoid robots 🤖 in production and logistics. 👉 Digital twins are a hot topic 🔥, too: The first challenge is to capture and combine the fragmented data pools to feed a LLM with the relevant data. Linked to digital twins, companies like Mercedes-Benz AG or BMW Group want to leverage an industrial 🏭 metaverse to improve production planning and efficiency. Renault Group seems to focus on a digital twin of the vehicles 🚘 and customers 🤳🏻 to drive UX and digital ecosystem sales. 👉 ADAS and AD 👾 solutions are the obvious ones: Sensor fusion, perception, decision making and motion control are more and more AI enabled. Companies like Wayve, XPENG, Nio or Huawei are at the forefront. 👉 The first customer facing solutions are getting rolled out, let’s see if it will be more than a hype 🤷🏼♂️. ChatGPT enabled voice and personal assistants are getting rolled out by Volkswagen Group and others. Mercedes-Benz AG launched an AI enabled DJ 🎶. Exciting times ahead … #automotive #ai #future

🤑 Leading automotive 🚗 groups shared details about the hot 🔥 topics during their investor presentations and quarterly updates. Here is a short summary with details about Stellantis, Volkswagen Group, Ford Motor Company, Hyundai Motor Company (현대자동차) or Toyota Motor Corporation. As always, it’s my personal opinion. Please add your thoughts 💭 in the comment section below 👇. —— 🔀 Adjusting EV platforms and volumes: 👉 OEMs replanning their EV strategies, due to demand dynamics. The groups stay committed to EVs, timelines ⏳ and volumes are changing. 👉 OEMs like Ford Motor Company, General Motors or Volkswagen adjust their plans for battery production or sourcing. 👉 Low cost BEVs are on the radar: Ford has a skunkworks project, Tesla seems committed to a below $25k vehicle, Stellantis joined forces with Leapmotor to keep a foot on the ground in China 🇨🇳 and to secure access to a entry segment EV platform. —— 📀 Never ending dynamic in software units: 👉 Volkswagen Group is reshaping CARIAD - a SDV Hub should eventually deliver the next 2.0 E/E architecture and related software features. 👉 Hyundai is implementing a speed boat 🚤 approach: 42dot became the center of SDV, AI, ADAS. Challenge might be how to dock the speed boat with the legacy organization. 👉 Stellantis and Amazon should be ready to launch the STLA Digital Cockpit in 2024, one of their main pillars to provide the promised digital service revenues by 2030 💰. —— Adjusting ADAS and AD plans: 👉 Volkswagen is collaborating closer with Mobileye on L2+ to eventually L4 ADAS and AD projects. The collaboration with Bosch continues. The Bosch stream could enhance entry and volume models, Mobileye tech could be applied in premium ✨ models first. 👉 General Motors is dropping the Ultra Cruise project to focus on the Super Cruise ADAS system. This could be linked to LiDAR value chain challenges. Volvo Cars has apparently problems with the LiDAR, too. Let’s see if Mercedes-Benz AG can ship the next L3 pilot as intended. 👉 Stellantis is committed to the ADAS and AD partnerships with BMW Group and Waymo. The ADAS services might not be top notch, as the previous Gen 2021 system might be used. —— Other bets to protect or expand the business: 👉 Kia Worldwide is entering the light commercial space, with a PBV platform for mobility and transportation. All the hot 🔥 stuff from ADAS to AI and modularity should be implemented. Let’s see how much they can learn from semi successful challengers like brightdrop, Canoo or Arrival 🤷🏼♂️. 👉 Also Renault Group, Volvo Group and CMA CGM are betting on electric ⚡️ delivery vans with the new Flexis JV. The first SDV based on Google Automotive should be ready in 2026. 👉 AI and robotics 🤖 becoming top priorities. Hyundai is deep into the field with Boston Dynamics, BMW, NIO, Mercedes or BYD tipping their toes, Tesla is selling it as next growth narrative. Exciting times ahead … #cars #automotive #electricvehicles

🤑 Corporate mobility is the new growth narrative of battered B2C or B2G focused mobility 🚲🛴🚌 startups. Opportunity might be oversized, here is my narrative. ➡️ As always, please re-share 🔁 and comment. Views are my personal ones - add yours ✍🏻. 👉 We all know that B2C and B2G mobility services are not as profitable and fast growing as many of us believed in the last 10 years. 👉 So companies like 🚕 FREENOW, FINN, Dance 🚲 or Uber try to adjust their narrative towards the corporate mobility market. 👉 FreeNow is pushing a mobility budget 🤳 based on their so called super app. Uber has a dedicated team for corporate sales - but seems hard to crack based on the details from their investor days. 👉 Subscription startups, like Dance 🚲 or Finn 🚗 started with B2C offerings, shifting now to B2B sales as additional revenue stream 💰. The shift might be harder than expected, here is why: 1️⃣) They are not alone: The potential business opportunities inspired pure players in the different segments. 👉 Companies like MOBIKO or XXImo | Leads the way in mobility launched mobility budget solutions, with the aim to help corporates toward a more sustainable and inclusive mobility setup. 👉 fleetster, GiraVolta or Vulog wants to provide the rails for corporate car sharing services. 👉 Zeelo, GoFlux, Twogo and others try to digitize the ride together use case, either in private vehicles 🚗 or in dedicated shuttles 🚌. 2️⃣) The mobility revolution in corporates is happening at snail’s pace 🐌: 👉 Corporate Mobility is and might be dominated by 🚗 cars. Based on the latest Arval BNP Paribas Group Mobility Observatory report, the share of companies that want to top up the fleet increased. 93% of companies want to keep their fleet stable or increase the size. 👉 Mobility services linked to car rentals, private lease, car cash 💰 allowance have seen an increased YoY. 👉 One promising aspect for a more sustainable corporate mobility ecosystem is the growth of micro mobility 🚲🛴 related services. Providers for corporate bike leasing, like JobRad GmbH are growing rapidly and reaching ARRs north of $1 billion 💵. 👉 Innovative and more sustainable solutions, like mobility budgets, corporate MaaS apps or simple car sharing services stay flat or even see a decline 📉. 3️⃣) The opportunities are smaller than expected: 👉 Scaled mobility platforms like FREENOW need big projects to fuel the growth story. 👉 Based on my experience, innovative corporate mobility projects are often small & local PoCa. 👉 Lean startups might be more effective in capturing the needs of the corporate mobility pilots and projects than the big ones, where it’s just a side business. My personal conclusion: ➡️ Services beyond bike leasing will stay a niche. ➡️ Lean startups will continue to hassle, so will build a sustainable business case. ➡️ Big players will continue with window dressing, to win and keep the commitment of shareholders, customers, policymakers.

🤩 Here is an update on what’s happening along the automotive 🚗 value chains across different regions 🇨🇳🇺🇸🇪🇺. As always, it’s my personal view - please add your comments and re-share the post. China EV Inc. is not slowing down 🚀: 👉 Xiaomi Technology started the sales of the SU7 electric ⚡️ sedan. A compelling vehicle, staring below $30k 💰. 50.000 orders were placed in less than 30 minutes 🤯: https://lnkd.in/d8qMjR6r 👉 BYD is updating the different models, with improved performance specs and lower prices. Despite the updates, global EV 🔋 sales dropped by more than 40% Quarter to Quarter. Note: Chinese New Year 🧧 in February had an impact: https://lnkd.in/d7iZman4 Exports as leverage for new and traditional OEMs: 👉 BYD is building the “rail tracks” to stabilize the export routes to Europe. The first vessel 🚢 is already on duty (with a capacity of 7.000 vehicles). Additional 7 vessels should follow within the next 2 years. This could generate a yearly shipping capacity to Europe of around 175.000 vehicles 🚗. https://lnkd.in/dW8bAn7y 👉 International brands, like Tesla, CUPRA or Kia Worldwide bet on China 🇨🇳 build vehicles for international markets. The Kia EV6 is the latest model, let’s see when we will see it in Europe and the U.S.: https://lnkd.in/dZ9jsB-8 👉 XPENG is the latest brand that is launching in Germany 🇩🇪 with a premium first approach. The G9 SUV flagship and the P7 sedan will be available. https://lnkd.in/dcmZeWqX 👉 Stellantis wants to assemble the low cost Leapmotor EVs in Poland 🇵🇱 based on pre-produced kits from China. The T03 model could be priced at less than €20.000: https://lnkd.in/dd6BjnxP The efforts of western car brands: 👉 Rumors circulated that Tesla cancelled the $25.000 car 🚗 project, Elon denied that they stopped working on a $25k vehicle. My assumption 🤷🏼♂️: A Model 3 variant will become a sub $25k model over time. A new model is taking over the spot of Model 3 and Y. Your bets? https://lnkd.in/deQfxXHn 👉 Traditional brands moving ahead with their EV models that should give them leverage over the challengers from China 🇨🇳 and the U.S. 🇺🇸. AUDI AG finally launched the Q6 etron with the new E/E architecture. BMW Group teased the Vision X: https://lnkd.in/dStdvawG 👉 Leaders from Stellantis and Volkswagen Group confirm that the brands remain all in on electric vehicles ⚡️: https://lnkd.in/dZy9RQ_n Building blocks: 👉 The demand for high performance compute units is growing in China. The new Drive Thor generation from NVIDIA will be used by BYD, Li Auto or XPeng. Local players like Huawei, Horizon Robotics or Black Sesame align powerful partnerships. 👉 Battery performance is still important: Porsche delivers a new high performance battery system with the updated Taycan. NIO started the mass production of the 150kWh semi-solid battery 🔋 with a range of 1.000 km. The market stays very dynamic - exciting space to explore further!

😬 Watch out for Horizon Robotics, Black Sesame Technologies Inc or Huawei 🇨🇳 - The race to win the next ADAS / AD compute partnership is in full swing. Most of us have NVIDIA, Mobileye and also Qualcomm on the radar. Let’s have a look at the broader landscape. 👇 Please re-share and comment below. As always, just my personal thoughts 💭. Let me know if you want the PDF 📊 chart. ➡️ Everyone with everyone 🔀: As you can see in the chart, there are nearly no exclusive relationships between OEMs 🚗 and compute providers 👾. Different models often mean different HPC partnerships and SoCs. ➡️ TOPs, TOPs, TOPs: The performance 🚀 differs by suppliers, and off course chip generations. The EyeQ5 from Mobileye (ZEEKR极氪 01, Volvo Cars, Smart, BMW Group iX) is at the lower end of the performance spectrum. The MDC 810 from Huawei 🇨🇳 is currently leading. The Journey 6 🇨🇳 from Horizon Robotics and the Drive Thor from NVIDIA will define the new benchmark ➡️ Central 📍: Going forward, we might see more centralized computers (a combined unit for ADAS and the digital cockpit), as Qualcomm and Bosch 🤝, Leapmotor or ECARX teased. ➡️ We don’t see an European 🇪🇺 SoC provider on the radar. Tier 1 suppliers 🚘 like Continental, ZF Group or Bosch collaborate with Horizon Robotics, NVIDIA or Qualcomm to not miss the boat 🛥️. ➡️ When will we see 🤷🏼♂️ the first partnership of a western OEM with a Chinese SoC provider for a European or U.S. 🇺🇸 model 🚗? ➡️ Real AD volume will stay at a low 📊 level, the focus is clearly on ADAS 🚧. I personally have my question marks, if all of the announced L4 collaborations will end up in real commercial agreements. As Holon, Schaeffler, Plus or Nuro, I would follow a double souring strategy to limit the risk. The obvious: 👉 Mobileye raised awareness as the preferred supplier of Volkswagen Group ADAS and AD 🚐 projects. The collaboration with the GEELY brands is also obvious. I’m personally undecided about the success of the other AD 👾 projects with Schaeffler, HOLON or P3. 👉 Qualcomm surprised with the design win to provide the HPC for the next gen L2/L3 ADAS at BMW Group. Still, their Digital Chassis 🤳🏻 platform for digital cockpits seems to see more demand. 👉 NVIDIA is all over the place, with the highest count of L4 collaborations. The ADAS stack is filling the appetite of Chinese 🇨🇳 challenger OEMs and Mercedes Benz. The upper left corner and the internal projects at NIO or BYD could be a threat. 👉 The upper left is powerful 💥: Huawei, Horizon Robotics or Black Sesame Technologies Inc building a local presence and western OEMs don’t really see it. 👉 The Huawei MDC is the performance leader, used by Arcfox, Changan Automobile and the own Aito brand. BYD, Saic Motor Co., Ltd. (MG) or Li Auto and Volkswagen Group China joined forces with Horizon Robotics. Black Sesame is in the new Lynk SUV and Hongqi (FAW) models. It is just at the beginning… exciting times 🤩. #mobility #automotive #cars

🤑 Boom or bust? 🤷🏼♂️ Around 3-4 years ago, many mobility and automotive 🚗 related companies decided to merge with a SPAC 💰 to become a publicly traded company. A short hype - here is a snapshot about what happened since the hype. Please comment ✍🏻 and reshare 🔄! As always, I share my personal 💭 opinion. Let me know if you would like to get the PDF version of the chart. 📊 ✅ One positive point first: there is less than a handful of startups that managed to increase their market capitalization, e.g., Xos Trucks or ADS-TEC Energy. 🔥 The other 70+ SPACs are heavily under 😱 pressure, delisted, collapsed 🛑 or already merged 🤝 due to funding / valuation challenges. ➡️ SPACs could be seen as an adverse selection of companies brought to the public market 📊. Other funding sources (e.g., no VC money during the ZIRP phase 🚨) might not have been available. Revenue structures and cost structures did not align with the long term plan of analysts. All packed into a sloppy due diligence 🤦. ➡️ Companies like Plus or EO Charging cancelled their SPAC plans. They might not regret their decisions 😀. 👉 The columns on the left are shocking 😮: ➡️ Hyped mobility services like Bird 🛴 or Getaround crashed town to earth. Even Grab 🚕🍕, a region-dominating platform could not grew into the initial valuation. ➡️ Well known and promising EV ⚡️ brands like Fisker, Polestar or Faraday Future 🔋 are really struggling to stay alive. ➡️ The electrification of commercial fleets completely failed 🪫 so far, from hydrogen trucking to last mile delivery 🚚. Even Proterra Inc, a 2004 founded bus 🚌 and battery 🔋 supplier for public transportation collapsed. 👉 Close to 30% of the still publicly listed companies lost 90% or more of their initial SPAC value. Poor retail investors that put their money 💰 into the stocks. 👉 The graveyard 🪦 of unsuccessful SPACs is filling up - around 15 companies completely collapsed, filed for bankruptcy or already merged. Arrival is the latest addition. 👉 All different layers of the industry shift left ⬅️, there is not really a business vertical that stands out related to its market cap development. 👉 Charging networks and enabling hardware and software lump together at -75% and more. ChargePoint, Tritium®, Allego, as well as future V2G tech Nuvve Holding Corp. are in challenging times. 👉 Similar story but with -70% to -89% market caps for the LiDAR prospects, e.g., Luminar Technologies, Innoviz Technologies or Cepton. It’s a red ocean 🔴, oversupply is fighting for limited demand from OEMs like Volvo Cars, Mercedes-Benz AG or NIO. No surprise that Bosch decided to leave the space. Let’s see how this will continue… 🤯 P.S.: No investment advice. I just share a fraction of details. Everyone is responsible for their decisions. #mobility #automotive #cars

🤩 I know it's a bit late but I finally found time to reflect my professional year 2023 - what a ride! ✅ Ambitious sales target: Nearly 2️⃣x reached 🚀 ✅ New customer target: 4️⃣x more than planned 🤝 ✅ Utilisation: Exceeded ⏳ ✅ Team: Strengthened with mobility transformation 🚘🛴🚌 knowledge and experts 💪 ✅ Publications: Released 2️⃣ white papers, one on Autonomous Driving and one on China Brands and Software-Defined-Vehicles 🚘 with the partners in crime Marcus and Nils! 🙏 This would not have been possible without the trust and support of Jan, Thilo and Thomas and the superb performance of our great team 🙏. 🤩 Might be surprising for you that I do more than building the community on LinkedIn but here is more context. What you might think I do 🤷🏼♂️: 🪧 Sharing visuals 📊 and content 🌟 on LinkedIn 🎤 Panels and keynotes at top conferences  🎧 Appearing on mobility podcasts … all above is part of my passion, here is what I do in my daily job. Way more than you thought? ➡️ Describe the implications of the shift 🔀 towards Software-Defined-Vehicles 🚘: Deriving opportunities 📈, challenges 🚨 and future strategies for OEM customers and suppliers. ➡️ Development of authentic business models and cases 📊 for current and future new mobility topics, like mobility services, smart charging or topics that might become relevant in 2030 and beyond 🤑. ➡️ Creating B2B and B2C mobility 🚖 and digital ⚡️ service strategies that fit to the brand image, user groups, growth ambitions 📈. ➡️ Assessment of business potential / market reports 📖 of future mobility & automotive topics, like autonomous driving 👾, merging of mobility and energy 🔋 or smart city 🌆. 💡 Might be surprising, but we work with international customers in the automotive and manufacturing industry - not only Porsche. Reach out if you would like to work with me as well 😉 #sharedmobility #mobility #transformation #automotive #softwaredefinedvehicle