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On Noah Hanifin and his next contract

August 1, 2018, 11:28 AM ET [57 Comments]
Todd Cordell
Calgary Flames Blogger • RSSArchiveCONTACT
Follow me on Twitter @ToddCordell

Undoubtedly the biggest item remaining on Brad Treliving's off-season to-do list is re-signing Noah Hanifin.

Around the draft, it was rumored Hanifin's camp was looking for something in the ballpark of $30 million over six years ($5 million per).

The contract Brady Skjei just signed (six years, $5.25 million per) will likely only reinforce those demands.

They might not be perfect comparables – Skjei is a little older and had arbitration rights this summer – but there are a lot of similarities.

At 5v5, Skjei averaged .92 points and 9.49 shot attempts per 60 over the last two seasons. Hanifin averaged .88 points and 10.75 shot attempts per 60. Both players also positively impacted the team's Corsi For%, although not by a ton.

Using micro stats tracked by @ShutdownLine, we see their strengths lie in the same areas of the game.



Both players – more so Hanifin – were really good at breaking out and driving play into the offensive zone; not so good at creating opportunities from the blue line in and defending entries.

The sample size for Hanifin isn't nearly as large as it is for Skjei (48 games compared to 113) but there is enough evidence to put some value in the data.

Given their similar offensive output, underlying numbers, and micro stats, it makes sense that they'd get a similar contract.

The one hiccup is the Flames currently don't have the cap space to give Hanifin something in the $5 million range. They have just $4.53M available to them. I very much doubt they'd be able to convince Hanifin, who is repped by the powerhouse that is CAA Sports, to sign long-term at that price.

That means the Flames need to get some money off the books (a 2nd buyout window open tomorrow – Troy Brouwer, anyone?) or give Hanifin a bridge deal and do this over again in a couple years.

It'll be interesting to see what they elect to do.

Recent posts:

On Mark Jankowski's bridge deal with the Flames

There were positives in Sam Bennett's disappointing campaign

Flames sign Elias Lindholm to a six-year extension

A closer look at the Derek Ryan and Austin Czarnik signings

James Neal a necessary signing for the Flames

Dynamite U21 seasons from Andersson + Kylington put them in good company
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