After a mild late winter with almost no precipitation since late January, the weather through the next couple of weeks seems to be taking a turn for the cooler and wetter. National Weather Service Warning Coordinator Meteorologist Greg Gust said in a March 12 spring flood outlook that with a delayed thaw and run-off cycle, spring flooding likely won't begin until later in the season.
"If we were to talk about this last week, I'd have been optimistic," Gust said. "I would have said, 'Gee, things are warming up, things are starting to move, maybe we'll see big water starting to flow through the latter part of March.' This week I'd say, no."
Much of the water that thawed over the last week has refrozen, Gust said, and overall, the spring flood outlook has seen little change from previous weeks. The region has only seen about .14 of an inch of precipitation since Jan. 20.
That's expected to change this weekend, with snow expected to move into the northern Red River Valley Friday. The Grand Forks area is expected to see impacts through Sunday, which will include less than an inch of snow accumulation.
National Weather Service Lead Meteorologist Jim Kaiser said the storm likely will have little wind associated with it, and it is not expected to reach blizzard conditions.
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And even with the relative precipitation slowdown in recent weeks, the Red River Basin is still expected to see a Top 10 or possibly a Top 5 flood in 2020.
Snow depths in the Grand Forks area were at about 11 inches on March 12, with a water equivalent of 1 to 2.5 inches, according to the National Weather Service. Winter snowpack is now near or above normal, with a high snow water content and a below-normal frost depth.
Gust said that this time last year, there was significantly more snow on the ground. But flood potential is not necessarily about just snow on the ground -- moisture levels in the soil have a great impact, too. After a record-breaking wet fall 2019, the soils underneath the snow this year are considerably wetter than last year.
According to the National Weather Service, there is a 50% chance the Red River flood in Grand Forks will reach levels higher than 48.4 feet, and a 25% chance they will be higher than 50.6 feet. Last year, the flood crest was 46.99 feet, and the record-setting crest in 1997 was 54.37 feet. Major flooding is considered to start at 46 feet.
In Grafton, minor flooding of Park River is possible. There is now a 50% chance the flood will crest at 11.2 feet, and a 25% chance the flood will crest at 12.7 feet. Minor flooding is considered to start at 12 feet. Last year, the flood crested at 11.28 feet.
Pembina is almost guaranteed to see major flooding from the Red River, with a 50% chance the flood will crest at 52.8 feet and a 25% chance it will crest at 53.7 feet. In 2019, the flood reached water levels of 49.38 feet, and the record set in 1997 sits at 54.94 feet.
Hallock is expected to see moderate flooding from the Two Rivers, with a 50% chance water elevation will reach 807.9 feet and a 25% chance of reaching 808.9 feet. The 2019 season saw a maximum elevation of 808.61 feet. Major flooding is considered to begin at 810 feet. Measurements at Hallock are in overall elevation above sea level, and not from the bottom of the river.
Gust said one of the only significant changes made to the flood outlook in the region is in Roseau, where minor flooding from the Roseau River is more likely than previously thought. There is a 50% chance the flood will crest at 16.5 feet, and minor flooding is considered to begin at 16 feet.
