The best thing about focusing on movement and velocity is that they are meaningful in small samples and they can offer you the opportunity to pick up a hot starting pitcher, identify a flaw before the league does, and then trade them for value early on. It could have worked with Logan Allen (who has a straight fastball with below average velo), and it could work right now for Alex Young (poor fastball velocity, bad four-seamer).
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On the major league level, did the Marlins just pull that trick with Zac Gallen? On the way up, Gallen didn’t head prospect lists because none of his pitches rated above a 55, so he was seen as a kitchen sink guy with decent command and a good floor — but not much ceiling. I myself have traded him recently (along with Dwight Smith, Jr, Carter Kieboom, and Taylor Trammel for Didi Gregorius and Brandon Belt in a keep-25 18-teamer where I’m either first or second), so I don’t blame anyone for following the Marlins’ lead.
But is it the right move this time? Gallen’s in-season numbers are good — his strikeout minus walk rate is currently sandwiched between Mike Minor and Aaron Nola — and he doesn’t have the same obvious problems as Allen and Young. Seems like a good time to take a look at each of his pitches, find comps, and then try to identify an overall ceiling (and strategy) for the young man now in Arizona.
Fastball comp: Shane Bieber
This is both good and bad news. The good news is that Shane Bieber is really good. But what makes Bieber good is not his singing voice or his fastball, it’s his command — and breaking ball command, in particular. Bieber has been throwing his fastball less and less over the years.
That’s because though the fastball has some ride, it doesn’t pack a ton of oomph. 23rd out of 191 in ride, it’s 113th out of 191 in velo. Bieber has top-shelf command of his fastball (111 Command+) and Gallen has good command of his fastball (103 Command+).
Gallen’s fastball is not as bad as Young’s or Allen’s. It isn’t, however, his best pitch.
Slider comp: Vince Velasquez
Don’t groan too hard at this comp, Velasquez has a fine slider. It’s the command and stamina that’s been a tougher thing on the Phillies pitcher. Look up and down at similar sliders, and you get the same feeling: this is at least an average slider, if not a little better.
There’s a little more here, too, some upside. If Gallen can add a little horizontal movement to his slider, his comp list improves: suddenly he’ll be nearing Walker Buehler, Marcus Stroman, and Dinelson Lamet territory. Lamet’s fastball is a near match for Gallen’s in terms of movement, too, so this is something the D-backs could focus on: get a little more sideways action on this thing to differentiate it from the curve.
Curve comp: Brad Peacock
Peacock came up throwing a curveball but he broke out by adding a (more horizontal) slider recently. But both Peacock and Gallen have above-average movement and velocity on their curveballs, and, therefore, we can probably believe that Gallen (like Peacock) will continue to get above-average whiffs on the curveball going forward.
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It’s not an elite pitch, but it’ll do.
So far we’re following the scouting report. Three average to above-average pitches, no feature pitch yet. The changeup will be a big one, then, for Gallen’s future.
Changeup comp: Kyle Gibson
Gallen has a below-average velocity gap, so for him it’s all about movement. I learned recently from an industry source that it’s an either/or proposition on these things — either you have a great power change with big movement differences, or you want a straight change with a big velocity gap — so we can leave movement out of it if that’s not his strength. Gallen’s changeup will live or die on movement relative to his fastball.
I took all the changeups that have been thrown more than 50 times and then defined their movement off the pitcher’s fastball. Here are the top 15 changeups by movement alone.
| Player | Number | Horizontal Z | Vertical Z | Z-Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zack Greinke | 447 | 1.6 | 1.4 | 3.1 |
| Daniel Norris | 258 | 0.1 | 2.8 | 2.9 |
| Jacob deGrom | 290 | 1.1 | 1.6 | 2.7 |
| Mike Fiers | 263 | 0.5 | 1.4 | 2.0 |
| Anibal Sanchez | 444 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 1.9 |
| Dylan Bundy | 342 | 0.7 | 1.2 | 1.9 |
| Nick Kingham | 57 | 2.0 | -0.1 | 1.9 |
| Dan Straily | 189 | -0.3 | 2.2 | 1.9 |
| Daniel Mengden | 95 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 1.8 |
| Kyle Gibson | 279 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 1.8 |
| Shane Bieber | 164 | 0.7 | 1.1 | 1.8 |
| Alex Young | 66 | -0.1 | 1.8 | 1.7 |
| Stephen Strasburg | 433 | 0.3 | 1.4 | 1.7 |
| Zac Gallen | 85 | 0.0 | 1.6 | 1.6 |
| Aaron Brooks | 151 | -0.7 | 2.3 | 1.6 |
It’s fitting that Zack Greinke is atop this list because he’s got the prototypical power changeup. Everyone on this list should be watching how he uses his and try to make theirs more like his.
But it’s also great news for Gallen when you look at the top of this list as a whole: Jacob deGrom, Mike Fiers, Aníbal Sánchez, Dan Straily, Kyle Gibson, Stephen Strasburg. These are all top, top changeups; say what you will about varying degrees of quality when it comes to these pitchers’ other pitches. The average whiff rate on this list is 15% better than league average, so at the very least Gallen has another above-average pitch.
Right now, though, only Luis Castillo, Cole Hamels, Blake Snell, and Strasburg are getting more whiffs from their changeup than Gallen. It could be a plus pitch.
Zoom back out on all of this and it’s clear that Gallen is at least worth holding on to if you need pitching this year. He’s a top 50 type pitcher who you can feel safe about throwing into most matchups, given his collection of at least average to above-average pitches. There’s no huge flaw like with Young and Allen. It’s a good mix, and he should be owned in all leagues. His best overall comp is Kyle Gibson: a bunch of good pitches and good velo and command.
But the asterisk? It’s a good one! He might be really good, depending on how good his power change really is. That’s the kind of upside worth keeping around (oops).
(Top photo: Quinn Harris/Getty Images)
