For the first time in recent memory and perhaps history, the number of registered Democratic voters in Riverside County outnumbers the ranks of registered Republican voters.
Data released by the county Registrar of Voters Office last week showed there are 347,713 registered Democrats and 346,309 registered Republicans, a gap of 1,404 voters. The gap appears to be growing; in data released earlier this month, the parties were virtually tied, with Democrats holding a four-voter lead.
The change is a major victory for Democrats as they work to turn the once solidly red Inland Empire blue.
It’s the first time in at least 17 years that Democrats have held an edge in voter registration in the county, according to Registrar Rebecca Spencer. The state’s online voter registration records go back to 1999.
The shift is part of Democratic gains throughout parts of Southern California that were once GOP strongholds. Democrats surpassed Republicans in San Diego County in 2009 and while Republicans still prevail in Orange County, the margin has shrunken to 5.4 percentage points — a steady decline from the all-time high of 22 points in 1990.
The Riverside change came with a rise in the total number of registered voters. Roughly 921,000 county residents were registered to vote as of Aug. 1, up from almost 831,000 in September 2015.
Riverside County’s population was 2,361,026 in July 2015, according to the most recent numbers available from the U.S. Census Bureau.
Republicans outnumbered Democrats as recently as late April. It took 17 years to close a 10 percentage point GOP advantage, with Democrats adding 18,000 voters in the past three months, according to Doug Dye, who crunches voter registration numbers for the county Democratic Party.
Thirteen of the county’s 28 cities have a plurality of Democratic voters, up from 10 in May 2015. Banning, Jurupa Valley and Desert Hot Springs join Riverside, Moreno Valley, San Jacinto and Palm Springs and other cities where Democrats have an edge, although the margin in Banning is just one voter.
County Democratic Party Chairman Howard Katz said the party has worked hard to register Democratic voters.
“The Democratic base has been growing, and we’ve been delighted,” Katz said.
Wealthy liberal activist Tom Steyer gave the county party a grant to fund voter engagement and registration efforts, said Katz, who declined to provide the grant total.
County GOP Chairman Scott Mann saw the change as part of a long trend that began with the passage of Proposition 187 in 1994.
The ballot measure, which was eventually overturned by the courts, denied public education and other public assistance to undocumented immigrants and is seen as having turned Latino voter sentiment against Republicans in California. GOP Gov. Pete Wilson supported Prop. 187.
“The growth in population through immigration from other countries and migration from other states in the Latino and Asian communities has provided the surge in Democratic voter registration, even though those communities more typically align with Republican Party ideals on social issues,” Mann said.
“We continue to engage in voter registration activity in the county.”
Jack Pitney, a professor of politics at Claremont McKenna College, noted that Republican voter registration statewide is in decline. Thirty-five percent of California voters were Republicans in 2000, compared with 27 percent today, Pitney said.
“The California Republican Party has been working to help strengthen county Republican committees to rebuild the party from the ground up,” said state GOP spokeswoman Kaitlyn MacGregor. “Part of this rebuilding is recruiting candidates that reflect the growing diversity of the state. Another part of this rebuilding is taking responsibility for voter registration in local communities.
“The decline in Republican voter registration is two decades in the making, and it will take a lot of effort to stop and reverse it.”
RED TO PURPLE
The Inland Empire used to be a Republican bastion in deeply Democratic California, consistently voting for GOP presidential candidates and sending Republican lawmakers to Washington, D.C., and Sacramento.
Helping Inland Republicans was an influx of white suburban families from Orange and San Diego counties who brought their conservative views with them.
But political redistricting in 2011 created Inland legislative districts friendly to Democrats. In 2012, Democratic congressional candidates Mark Takano and Raul Ruiz won Riverside County seats – Ruiz by upsetting GOP incumbent Mary Bono – while Democrats Jose Medina and Richard Roth won competitive Riverside-area elections for the Assembly and the state Senate, respectively.
In addition, Barack Obama carried Riverside and San Bernardino counties in 2008 and 2012. Takano, Ruiz and Medina won re-election in 2014 and are favored along with Roth to win new terms in November.
Ruiz’s congressional district, which includes Hemet, San Jacinto, the Pass and the Coachella Valley, formerly had a slight plurality of registered Republicans. Now Democrats outnumber Republicans in that district by about 10,000 voters.
The Democratic voter surge puts the region more in step with the rest of the state. Democrats hold every statewide elected office, a majority in the Legislature, 39 of California’s 53 House seats and both of its U.S. Senate seats.
About 45 percent of California’s roughly 18 million voters are registered Democrats, the highest percentage of any qualified political party.
Pitney attributes the increase in Riverside County Democrats in part to a rise in the Latino population, which tends to vote Democratic. Forty-eight percent of the county’s residents identified as Latino in 2014, up from 36 percent in 2000, according to census figures.
“The circumstances of this year’s election won’t help,” Pitney said. “There is not even a Republican on the ballot in a major statewide race. Meanwhile, (Donald) Trump will energize Hispanic turnout and depress voting among moderate Republicans.”
Trump, the GOP presidential nominee, is expected to lose California in November, and his unpopularity could hurt Republicans running for legislative and congressional seats.
Katz said voter backlash against Trump “absolutely” is helping to register Democratic voters. And the Orange County Democratic Party chairman told The Orange County Register that Trump “has become our best marketing tool.”
The GOP voter registration advantage in traditionally conservative Orange County has been cut to less than 6 percentage points, the Register reported.
Bernie Sanders and a competitive state primary in June also may have helped Democratic voter registration. Sanders is credited with boosting enthusiasm among younger voters, and Sanders and eventual Democratic presidential nominee Hillary Clinton campaigned extensively in California before the June 7 primary as Sanders sought momentum for his long shot campaign.
Fifty-two percent of Riverside County’s registered Democrats cast a ballot in the primary, compared to 47 percent of Republicans.
It’s not all bad news for the GOP. Republicans hold 70 percent of the city council seats and countywide elected offices in Riverside County, Murrieta and Temecula, and Rep. Ken Calvert, R-Corona, is favored in November to continue his two-decade run on Capitol Hill.
Katz is hopeful the Democrats’ voter registration edge in the county won’t go away. “I think when people register in one direction, they don’t change much in their lifetime,” he said.
Staff writer Martin Wisckol contributed to this report.
Contact the writer: 951-368-9547 or jhorseman@pressenterprise.com
