One startling element of new maps that predict future flooding in Stonington, as the result of rising sea levels and storm surge, is how vulnerable downtown Mystic will become.

Indeed, one single map predicting the probability of flooding by 2050 indicates that the chance of annual flooding will by then be as high as 50 percent in much of downtown Mystic.

The probability of frequent flooding in Mystic is also true, to a lesser degree, even on predictive maps for 2030.

Browsing these maps, to look at the future of Stonington in the world of global warming, is alarming.

It also is somewhat reassuring to know the maps have been prepared, as part of a larger study to help the town plan for its wet future.

The maps are part of a Community Coastal Resiliency Plan wisely ordered by the town using a $150,000 state grant, some of $54 million in federal storm resiliency money announced early this year by Gov. Dannel Malloy and the state's congressional delegation.

Much of it was earmarked for actual mitigation in western coastal areas.

To interject some politics here, it is curious that the government already is paying for global warming solutions, even while one major political party tries to elect as president a global-warming denier.

And as you peruse these flood prediction maps — they are expected to be posted next week on the Stonington town website — remember it's important who you vote for next month. I would skip anyone who supports the global-warming denier.

A first glimpse of the maps came Thursday night at Mystic Aquarium, where the company doing the study, global consulting engineers ARUP, hosted a public forum to explain how the study will unfold and to solicit community input.

The development of the maps, explained project manager Lisa Dickson, is part of a strategy to form a resilience plan for low-lying areas that will help the town develop a strategy for either hardening or moving important assets threatened by future flooding.

The information also can be used to build in resilience in new development.

Among the objectives is to identify cultural resources and vital infrastructure, such as health care facilities and firehouses.

Among the especially vulnerable assets already identified in Stonington include sewer plants and pumping stations, the town dock and the causeway leading to Masons Island.

I suspect the maps soon are going to be a resource for anyone buying or selling real estate, since flood vulnerability already has become a factor in property values.

The most valuable real estate in Stonington, broadly speaking, is also apparently some of its most vulnerable.

In addition to the high probability of flooding in Mystic, parts of Stonington Borough and other waterfront communities are especially vulnerable.

The maps show the eastern shore of Stonington Borough, along Stonington Harbor, to be among the most vulnerable areas. But the northern part of the borough and parts of the western shore, along Little Narragansett Bay, also have high probabilities of flooding in the future.

In addition to other shoreline neighborhoods like Wamphassuc Point, Masons Island and Lord's Point, there are also pockets of high probability in downtown Pawcatuck and up the Pawcatuck River.

Mystic, Stonington Borough and Pawcatuck seem to be the most densely populated areas at high risk.

The consultants explained Thursday that their predictive maps are built on dynamic modeling formulas that take into account rising sea levels, ocean temperatures and landscape.

They are meant to be forward looking, the consultants explained, rather than traditional Federal Emergency Management Agency flood maps, which look back at the flood levels of storms that already have occurred.

That's an important distinction.

More frequent and more severe flooding seems destined to eclipse all the serious flooding that already has occurred in the long history of this coastal community.

This is the opinion of David Collins.

d.collins@theday.com