Is $5 Million For The Honus Wagner Baseball Card In Auction A Good Deal?

In 1996 an avid collector named Michael Gidwitz shelled out $640,500 for the 1910 T206 Honus Wagner tobacco card once previously owned by hockey immortal, Wayne Gretzky, the most money ever spent on a baseball card at the time. FORBES gave him considerable grief “Right now the greater-fool theory is being put to its greatest test,” wrote the magazine’s skeptical reporter. “We wish Gidwitz lots of luck. For he may be the ultimate victim of the Honus Wagner myth.”

Four years later, Gidwitz sold the Wagner for $1.27 million, setting another record. The last time that the Gretzky changed hands, to Arizona Diamondback owner Ken Kendrick, the price set an all-time record for a baseball card., $2.7 million. An informed source in the auction world told me that Kendrick has turned down a standing offer of $10 million.

With one of the world’s finest Wagner’s now soaring past $2 million (including the “juice,” or buyer’s premium) in a current Goldin auction which ends October 1st, it’s seems like a good idea to measure the market.

Goldin estimates that the Jumbo Wagner— dubbed as such due to the 1/16^th inch at its bottom border—will bring $5 million, even more. At a major press event in midtown Manhattan (see “$2.3 Million Honus Wagner Baseball Card Packed In Small Gym Takes NYC By Storm”), Ken Goldin behaved like a bull on steroids. I asked him if $5 million would be a good deal. "I think it's the first item that would go for $10 million,” he told me. “I do not think it would be outrageous if two people want it."

I emailed him a couple of days later to make sure he didn’t mean the Gretzky. “I am referring to the Jumbo,” he replied. “I think it could potentially be a $10 million card.”  In a four-page glossy flyer he published just for the occasion Goldin elaborated: “Demand for the card is ever-increasing, and the available supply remains achingly limited.”

As Everett Dirksen, the great U.S. Senator from Illinois, famously said, “A billion here, a billion there. Pretty soon you’re talking about real money.” I reached out to three key hobby figures about the $5 million estimate.

Rich Mueller, the editor of Sports Collectors Daily, sides with Goldin. “Wagner cards have proven to be a very good investment for virtually everyone who has owned one,” he told me. “I honestly think that rare sports collectibles have lagged behind other areas and have now gained a bigger measure of respect from those with the means and desire to buy them as an investment.  Prices are now on an entirely new level and so while it's hard to know whether someone who pays $5 million for a baseball card will flip it for a profit one day, it's one of the few truly higher grade examples of the most recognizable baseball card ever made. Demand is always going to tower oversupply and that's usually a good indicator of future results.  The publicity these things get when they come up for sale doesn't hurt either.”

I expected Don Hontz, the owner of Donscards7 in Portland, Maine, to agree. After all, he is one off the biggest buyers at top card conventions in the Northeast such as the County Center in White Plains, New York where I saw him spend tens of thousands of dollars in cash on an early Lou Gehrig this past August. He continues to buy and sell high-grade Gehrigs and Babe Ruths. But he surprised me. “Five million is getting a bit too steep I think---I know anyone who ever bought a Wagner made money when they sold it---but at Five Big Ones, I just don’t know,” Hontz told me. “I think things have peaked, but time will only tell.”

As the founder of VintageCardPrices.com, Robert Binder has as firm a grasp of market fluctuations as anyone in the industry. “We all know it was confirmed in court that Mr. Mastro altered the Gretzky card. [See “’A Heinous Crime’ May Be Lifting the $1.8 Million Honus Wagner Now Up For Auction],” he told me. “This current Wagner on the auction block is considered by many to be the highest graded Wagner in the world. The exact same [Jumbo Wagner] card sold for $2, 105,770 in 2013 on 4/26/15. So, in a little more than three years do people think it has increased in value by 250%.? Me, I think the $5 million evaluation is on the high side and it will not make it that high. I am thinking that this card will max out around $3 million.”

Goldin talks up the 2000 percent jump in certain high-grade rookies over the past three years. (See the chart above.) I asked him if we could expect the same from the Jumbo. “No,” he replied. “That would be $40 million.” Now that’s real money, but I’m predicting that the card will sell for somewhere between $3 million to $4 million.