After two weeks of dismal picks against the spread, Joe vs. the Pro is moving from the sidelines to the coaches’ box for Week 3. We just feel more comfortable there calling plays, and we don’t have to listen to people second guess our decisions.
We kid because we love, Auburn.
Gus Malzahn announced on Tuesday he was moving new offensive coordinator Chip Lindsey from the sidelines to the booth, and moving offensive line coach Herb Hand from the booth to the field. It’s actually pretty common for this type of in-season adjustment (Texas A&M is doing it as well this week), but that hasn’t stopped people from overreacting.
Auburn is out of Joe vs. the Pro for the week, but not because the Tigers are experimenting after their trip to Clemson. Joe vs. the Pro only picks games involving two FBS opponents. The Tigers will be back next week, but until then some proper perspective is needed. Auburn lost to the defending national champions on the road by eight points, and only gained 117 yards of offense. Based on Auburn’s offensive progression last season, there is still plenty of time for this team to challenge for the SEC championship.
We’re not writing off the Tigers, and neither are their opponents in the SEC West. As for Joe’s chance of breaking .500 against the spread this season, that might already be a decided.
Oklahoma quarterback Baker Mayfield plants a Sooners flag at Ohio Stadium.
LAST WEEK
Joe: 5-3 straight up, 3-5 against the spread
Pro: 4-4 straight up, 3-5 against the spread
Notes: Oklahoma quarterback Bayer Mayfield shouldn't have had to apologize for trying to plant OU's flag in the middle of Ohio Stadium after the Sooners' road victory against Ohio State. As for Joe, he owes everyone an apology for his dreadful picks last week. Except for this: Joe nailed Oklahoma's road upset against Ohio State! It made the weekend worthwhile despite missing on Auburn and Georgia.
OVERALL
Joe: 10-6 straight up, 5-10-1 against the spread
Pro: 10-6 straight up, 6-9-1 against the spread
Notes: Joe and the Pro are a combined 1-4 against the spread on games featuring Alabama and Auburn. Buyer beware!
SPORTSWRITER VS. HANDICAPPER
Joseph Goodman, a columnist for AL.com, and Lee Sterling, a professional college football handicapper, are back for the ninth consecutive season of Joe vs. the Pro. What happens when a sports journalist picks some of the toughest games of week and goes head-to-head against a veteran numbers man? So far, the Pro has beaten Joe every year except one. The Pro features his best picks on his website, ParamountSports.com, but he fearlessly picks the most difficult college games of week against Joe. Consider this a service to society, and a social experiment aimed at learning the truth, are handicappers really that good? Think you can match the Pro? Make your picks each week, and track your results throughout the season. The Pro studies film and visits campuses throughout the offseason to gain insight. Joe pretty much wings it. Onto the picks!
PICTURED: The most popular man in Columbia, S.C.
Kentucky (2-0) vs. South Carolina (2-0)
When: 6:30 p.m. CT, Saturday
Where: Williams-Brice Stadium, Columbia, S.C.
TV: SEC Network and WatchESPN
Series: South Carolina leads 17-10-1.
Spread: South Carolina by 6.5.
SUPER STAT OF THE WEEK: Until this season, South Carolina hadn't started 2-0 with a schedule featuring its first two games against Power 5 opponents since 1990.
Joe says: I'm really looking forward to this game, believe it or not. Kentucky has won the last three, but each game has been decided by seven or fewer points. This year, both teams feature quality quarterbacks, but Gamecocks passer Jake Bentley gets the edge. He has four touchdown throws so far and receiver Deebo Samuel is a weapon. In addition to his skills as a receiver, Samuel has been one of the SEC's most electrifying special-teamers, returning 97-yard kickoff returns in each of South Carolina's first two games. Gamecocks' defense has been bruised to begin the season, but that experience will prepare them well here.
Joe's pick: South Carolina 42, Kentucky 35
Pro says: Last four in this series have all been decided by a TD or less. Not discounting the improving Gamecocks, who are plus-four in turnover ratio and have two kickoff returns, but don't expect those variances to continue. Kentucky always seems to play at a different level as an underdog, and probably has the better running game and run defense. Upset alert!
Pro's pick: Kentucky 28, South Carolina 24
Everyone loves UCLA quarterback Josh Rosen.
No.25 UCLA (2-0) vs. Memphis (1-0)
When: 11 a.m. CT, Saturday
Where: Liberty Bowl Memorial Stadium, Memphis, Tenn.
TV: ABC and WatchESPN
Series: UCLA leads 1-0.
Spread: UCLA by 3.
SUPER STAT OF THE WEEK: UCLA has scored a touchdown on 12 of the past 14 drives Josh Rosen has started out under center.
Joe says: The last time UCLA played in Memphis was 1976 Liberty. Alabama defeated the Bruins 36-6 in 34-degree weather. The temperature shouldn't be a factor this time, but the time of kickoff could be a problem. Bruins shocked Texas A&M to begin the season with one of the greatest fourth-quarter comebacks in college football history. QB Josh Rosen didn't fall off last week against Hawai'i. He completed 22 of 25 attempts for 329 yards and FIVE touchdowns. Memphis coach Mike Norvell has nine starters returning on offense, and the Tigers will be looking for a statement game. They won't get it. Memphis allowed 13.3 yards per completion in Week One against Louisiana-Monroe during a rainstorm.
Joe's pick: UCLA 45, Memphis 28
Pro says: Bruins quarterback Josh "The Chosen" Rosen should have a field day against a Tigers defense that had trouble with the Louisiana-Monroe offense two weeks ago. I know that the Bruins are banged up on defense, and have a revenge game next week vs. Stanford. Different level of talent on the field, and the huge edge goes to the boys from Westwood.
Pro's pick: UCLA 48, Memphis 40
The toast of Troy, USC quarterback Sam Darnold.
Texas (1-1) vs. No.4 Southern Cal (2-0)
When: 7:30 p.m. CT, Saturday
Where: Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum, L.A.
TV: Fox
Series: USC leads 4-1.
Spread: USC by 16.5.
SUPER STAT OF THE WEEK: Of all the incredible stats USC put up against Stanford, this one stands out: Troy allowed just 25 rushing yards on 11 carries in the second half.
Joe says: Welcome back to the national stage, USC. It's been awhile. The Trojans have won 11-straight games after starting last season 1-3. What a difference a year has made for coach Clay Helton, especially considering USC's 52-6 loss to Alabama to begin 2016. USC quarterback Sam Darnold could be the No.1 pick in the 2018 draft. He's completing 75 percent of his passes, and his two talented running backs behind him. Meanwhile, Texas might either start a freshman at QB for its first road game, or injured quarterback Shane Buechele. If the Longhorns have to rely on the run, they'll be playing into USC's hands. Opponents are averaging 4.62 yards per rush against the Texas defense. This one could get out of hand.
Joe's pick: Southern Cal 42, Texas 25
Pro says: Joe Q Public will think because USC pounded Stanford, and Texas lost to Big 10 bottom feeder Maryland that laying a TD and a FG won't matter. It will, as new Horns head coach Tom Herman lives for these games. He's upset Florida State, Oklahoma and Louisville in the last 16 games and will find a way with a true freshman QB to keep it close.
Pro's pick: USC 42, Texas 35
Dan Mullen's latest star quarterback, Bulldogs quarterback Nick Fitzgerald, takes aim at LSU.
No.12 LSU (2-0) vs. Mississippi State (2-0)
When: 6 p.m. CT, Saturday
Where: Davis Wade Stadium, Starkville, Miss.
TV: ESPN and WatchESPN
Series: LSU leads 73-34-3.
Spread: LSU by 7.
SUPER STAT OF THE WEEK: Since Oct. 29 of last season, Mississippi State quarterback Nick Fitzgerald leads the nation in TDs responsible (32).
Joe says: What a brutal stretch of games for the Bulldogs over the next three weeks. After hosting LSU, State goes on the road against Georgia and Auburn. Combined, those three teams currently are allowing an average of 2.12 yards per carry. LSU is ranked first nationally in rushing defense (31.5 yards per game), but Mississippi State quarterback Nick Fitzgerald has rushed for over 100 yards in seven of his last nine games. My bold prediction, LSU isn't going to shut down State's rushing attack, and the Bulldogs can pull the upset if its defense shows up. Playing at home in prime time, I'm thinking it does. The last three meetings between these two teams have come down to the final three minutes of each game.
Joe's pick: Mississippi State 24, LSU 21
Pro says: Tigers recipe for success starts with a smothering defense and an offense that uses the run to set up the pass. Bulldogs beat a La Tech team handily that no way resembles any of their last three bowl teams. Don't let the close 23-20 Tigers win scare you away from laying the TD. Former HC Les Miles took the foot off the gas in that game up 20-3 and Leonard Fournette fumbled twice in the 2nd half. Sometimes you gotta lay road chalk to collect.
Pro's pick: LSU 34, Mississippi State 17
It seems like even Butch Jones' defense at Tennessee can handle Florida's dismal offense.
No.23 Tennessee (2-0) vs. No.24 Florida (0-1)
When: 2:30 p.m. CT, Saturday
Where: Ben Hill Griffin Stadium, Gainesville, Fla.
TV: CBS
Series: Florida leads 26-20.
Spread: Florida by 5.
SUPER STAT OF THE WEEK: The Gators' offense is ranked 129th nationally in total offense (192.0 ypg). That's dead last.
Joe says: This line is baffling. The Gators' have only played one game so far this season due to Hurricane Irma, and things are just now getting back to normal for UF's campus. Throw in the fact that the Gators' offense was non-existent against Michigan, quarterbacks Malik Zaire and Feleipe Franks were both ineffective in that game AND, oh yeah, UF likely will still be without players suspended for misusing school funds, I'm not going anywhere near Florida with this pick. As long as Florida doesn't break out the option (actually, not a bad idea), Tennessee should be just fine and make it two in a row against their SEC East rivals.
Joe's pick: Tennessee 21, Florida 18
Pro says: Nothing wrong with the Gators' defense. Their offense might be fine with the return of running back Jordan Scarlett and wide receiver Antonio Callaway. Who knows when that will be, though. Gators are 6-2 ATS after a loss. Georgia Tech ran all over the Vols' defense for 535 rushing yards, and the team that runs for the most yards in this matchup has won 14 of the last 15 games. The Vols are a fad-only proposition for me going forward.
Pro's pick: Florida 27, Tennessee 17
Clemson quarterback Kelly Bryant should have more running room against Louisville, but that doesn't mean he can keep pace with Lamar Jackson.
No.3 Clemson (2-0) vs. No.14 Louisville (2-0)
When: 7 p.m. CT, Saturday
Where: Papa John's Stadium, Louisville, Ky.
TV: ABC and WatchESPN
Series: Clemson leads 3-0.
Spread: Clemson by 3.
SUPER STAT OF THE WEEK: Clemson has not allowed a touchdown so far this year. It is the first time since 1950 that Clemson has not allowed a touchdown in each of the first two games of the season.
Joe says: Reread the "super stat of the week" and now consider that Louisville quarterback Lamar Jackson, the reigning Heisman Trophy winner, has accounted for seven touchdowns in his first two games. After its astounding 11-sack performance against Auburn, Clemson's defense is allowing an average of 118.5 yards per game in total offense. Jackson, Louisville's quarterback, leads the nation in total offense with 505.0 yards per game. Last year's game was amazing, with Louisville leading 36-28 with 7:52 left. Clemson had Deshaun Watson to lead the comeback. Weighing heavily on the revenge factor here, and Lamar Jackson's experience.
Joe's pick: Louisville 35, Clemson 31
Pro says: If you think Cards' Heisman Trophy winner Lamar Jackson is going to run and pass all over this Tigers' defense, then you might want to invest in some swamp land in the Florida Everglades. Clemson had 11 sacks against an Auburn team with a top tier offensive line plus a mobile quarterback last week. Due to graduation, the Cards defense lacks quality cornerbacks and poor tackling. National champion Clemson stays unbeaten and beats Louisville yet again. This could be another instant classic.
Pro's pick: Clemson 31, Louisville 23
The Blazers' next big-time running back could be freshman Spencer Brown.
Coastal Carolina (1-0) vs. UAB (1-1)
When: noon CT, Saturday
Where: Legion Field, Birmingham
TV: WBRC
Series: First meeting.
Spread: Coastal Carolina by 1.
SUPER STAT OF THE WEEK: UAB running back Spencer Brown is third nationally among freshmen with 96.5 rushing yards per game (41st overall). He trails only Jonathan Taylor of Wisconsin (155.0 ypg) and J.K. Dobbins of Ohio State (126.5 ypg).
Joe says: The Blazers' loss to Ball State was understandable considering the emotional return of the team in Week One, playing on the road for the first time and Ball State's underrated offense. This week, things should be different. Coastal Carolina is competing in its first season in the FBS, and this is the Chanticleers' first road game. The Blazers' offense is beginning to form an identity around freshman running back Spencer Brown. He is averaging 8.04 yards per carry, which ranks 18th nationally. Coastal is a run-first team and UAB's defense is allowing 2.66 yards per carry.
Joe's pick: UAB 28, Coastal Carolina 25
Pro says: Eager to see how many Blazer fans attend home game #2 after an enthusiastic crowd of 45,212 showed up for the opener. An extra week to prepare certainly helps the Chants. They also seem to perform at their best as a traveler going 13-3 SU in the last 16 away from friendly Myrtle Beach.
Pro's pick: Coastal Carolina, 30 UAB 27
Alabama linebacker Shaun Dion Hamilton leads the Tide with 3.5 tackles for loss.
Colorado State (2-1) vs. No.1 Alabama (2-0)
When: 6 p.m. CT, Saturday
Where: Bryant-Denny Stadium, Tuscaloosa
TV: ESPN2 and WatchESPN
Series: Alabama 1-0.
Spread: Alabama by 28.5
SUPER STAT OF THE WEEK: Nick Saban is 30-1 against non-conference opponents at Bryant-Denny. That record's only blemish was the infamous loss to La.-Monroe in 2007. Alabama's average score against non-conference opponents at home during the Saban Era is 37.5 ppg to 11.8 ppg.
Joe says: The Rams averaged 47.8 points per game and 533.8 yards per game over the final six games of the 2016 season. Third-year coach Mike Bobo (a former UGA quarterback) lost some of that shine after a 17-3 loss to Colorado in Week 2. Redshirt senior quarterback Nick Stevens is an excellent passer, and this is one of the biggest games of his career. He leads the country in passing yards (985), so he'll keep the Tide's secondary busy. Rams averaged 2.7 yards rushing against Colorado, and the Tide's defense is allowing 2.0 rushing yards per game. Colorado State is well coached, so they'll keep it respectable.
Joe's pick: Alabama 38, Colorado State 14
Pro says: Bama could use seven defensive linemen and no linebackers this week because of all the injuries to that position and still be fine. They have held 25 of the last 32 opponents to 16 points or less. If Jim McElwain was still coaching CSU there might be better storylines for this game. I expect Nick Saban to lay it on former UGA OC Mike Bobo. Tide should only play two quarterbacks instead of three and cover easily. Romper Room Special!
Pro's pick: Alabama 54, Colorado State 13
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