Joseph Goodman/jgoodman@al.com
Kirby Smart’s friends and family probably disagree, but the general consensus in the SEC before the season was that Mississippi State’s Dan Mullen was the second best coach in the league. Maybe so, but that belief can still serve to illustrate the overall dropoff in coaching throughout the league.
For example, Mullen was the second best coach in the SEC entering this season despite having a 7-33 record against Top 25 teams. That’s a pretty low bar. Mullen has done more with less than any other coach in the league during his tenure, but he hasn’t turned State into a national powerhouse. He’s 4-13 against Top 10 teams, but can earn his career-defining victory this Saturday with a home victory against Nick Saban and Alabama.
Joe vs. the Pro delivers career-defining picks all the time. Just look at last week!
LAST WEEK
Joe: 5-3 straight up, 4-2-2 against the spread
Pro: 7-1 straight up, 4-2-2 against the spread
Notes: Both Joe and the Pro hit big on Miami, and the Pro was spot on about the end of Iowa State's hot streak.
OVERALL
Joe: 52-28 straight up, 39-37-4 against the spread
Pro: 55-25 straight up, 39-37-4 against the spread
Notes: Joe is a stunning 7-1 against the spread this season on UAB.
SPORTSWRITER VS. HANDICAPPER
Joseph Goodman, a columnist for AL.com, and Lee Sterling, a professional college football handicapper, are back for the ninth consecutive season of Joe vs. the Pro. What happens when a sports journalist picks some of the toughest games of week and goes head-to-head against a veteran numbers man? So far, the Pro has beaten Joe every year except one. The Pro features his best picks on his website, ParamountSports.com, but he fearlessly picks the most difficult college games of the week against Joe. Consider this a service to society, and a social experiment aimed at learning the truth, are handicappers really that good? Think you can match the Pro? Make your picks each week, and track your results throughout the season. The Pro studies film and visits campuses throughout the offseason to gain insight. Joe has been covering college football for 18 years, and loves picking upsets. There's an old saying around these parts: fade Joe for dough. Onto the picks!
There's nothing overrated about Wisconsin running back Jonathan Taylor.
Iowa (6-3, 3-3 Big Ten) vs. No.9 Wisconsin (9-0, 6-0 Big Ten)
When: 2:30 p.m. CT, Saturday
Where: Camp Randall Stadium, Madison, Wis.
TV: ABC
Series: Wisconsin leads 45-43-2.
Spread: Wisconsin by 12.5.
SUPER STAT OF THE WEEK: Wisconsin's strength of schedule is ranked 68th by Sagarin, which is the second worst strength of schedule behind Central Florida (92) among teams rated by College Football Playoff committee.
Joe says: This will be a classic Big Ten mud-sicle game. The forecast calls for freezing rain in the morning, which will change to light rain later in the day with a high of 36-degrees. My bones ache just thinking about that kind of weather. As my mom used to say, that's "catch your death" weather. Wisconsin hasn't been tested this season, but Iowa, coming off its trouncing of Ohio State, should be a measuring stick. Leaving undefeated Wisconsin out of the playoff sounds like a worst-case scenario for the CFP committee until you think how bad it might be if Wisconsin actually makes it. Alabama-Michigan State Part II! Iowa was brilliant against Wisconsin, and if they play that way against Wisconsin this thing won't be close. We want close, though, because we want CFP chaos.
Joe's pick: Wisconsin 21, Iowa 18
Pro says: I don't think the Hawkeyes will have a letdown after dismantling Ohio State last week 55-24. They took the training wheels off quarterback Nathan Stanley, and he rewarded them with five touchdown passes. Wisconsin might be the most overrated Top-10 team I've ever seen, plus they have multiple injuries at the wide receiver and linebacker positions. Hawkeyes are a perfect 11-0 ATS as a 6-point or more underdog playing a plus-.750 team. To the wire!
Pro's pick: Wisconsin 26, Iowa 23
Not the best coach, according to the Pro.
Florida (3-5, 3-4 SEC) vs. South Carolina (6-3, 4-3 SEC)
When: 11 a.m.
Where: Williams-Brice Stadium, Columbia, S.C.
TV: CBS
Series: Florida leads 26-8-3.
Spread: South Carolina by 7.5.
SUPER STAT OF THE WEEK: The Gators have lost four games in a row. They haven't lost five in a row since Will Muschamp lost seven straight in 2013. So, not that long ago, really.
Joe says: Why is Joe vs. the Pro including this SEC undercard? Because it has huge Birmingham Bowl implications, of course. But, seriously, we couldn't resist the temptation to include a game that features the team that fired Will Muschamp two coaches ago (Florida), and Muschamp's new team (South Carolina), which, oh, by the way, also has a very strong Steve Spurrier connection. And, let's not forget, Florida hosts upstart UAB in two weeks. Muschamp is going to try and run it up against his old Gators, who lost to Missouri 45-16. Florida couldn't get a stop in the red zone (Mizzou had five touchdowns on six trips inside the 20), and that's a clear sign of a team that just doesn't care anymore. South Carolina couldn't run the ball last week against Georgia, but the Gamecocks should have better luck against Florida, which allowed 227 yards rushing and three scores against Mizzou.
Joe's pick: South Carolina 35, Florida 21
Pro says: Leaks are coming out of Gainesville that the practices and preparations by players are beyond awful. Florida's defense was equally bad last week allowing 227 rushing yards and 228 passing yards in no-show loss at Missouri. Inserting Malik Zaire as the starting quarterback was an unmitigated disaster. So, what does clueless interim head coach Randy Shannon do this week? He starts him again. If you ever wondered why he got the axe at Miami, then now you get it. No desire, no defense and an awful coach spells another humiliating loss for the Gators.
Pro's pick: South Carolina 30, Florida 9
Washington's defense could be Bryce Love's biggest test of the season.
No.12 Washington (8-1, 5-1 Pac-12) vs. No.21 Stanford (6-3, 5-2 Pac-12)
When: 9:30 p.m CT
Where: Stanford Stadium, Stanford, Cali.
TV: FS1
Series: Washington leads 42-41-4.
Spread: Washington by 5.5.
SUPER STAT OF THE WEEK: This is a great note from Stanford's sports information department: Of the 44,473 applicants who applied to Stanford (the most in school history) last year, only 2,085 were admitted. I'd like to add that two of those applicants were fullbacks.
Joe says: #Pac12AfterDark presents Washington's final road game of the season. The Huskies get Utah and rival Washington State at home to finish. Even if the Huskies win out, I'm not sure they can wedge their way into the College Football Playoff discussion. Style points will be needed. Last year, Washington was ranked No.10 in the AP poll entering its game against No.7 Stanford. A 44-6 blowout of the Cardinal helped move Washington up to No.5 nationally. Washington is ranked No.1 nationally in total defense (240.9 yards per game), and and No.6 in rushing defense (91.1 yards per game). Washington State held Stanford running back Bryce Love to 69 yards last week. With some style points needed, all signs favor Washington's second straight blowout of Stanford.
Joe's pick: Washington 42, Stanford 18
Pro says: Quarterback problems persist at Stanford. Making a quarterback switch more than halfway through the season isn't a good thing. The Cards' defense can't seem to stop good offenses, allowing 307 rushing yards and 316 passing yards to USC, and getting blitzed for 480 passing yards against UCLA. Huskies on the other hand rank No.6, No.2 and No.1 in run defense, scoring defense and total defense, respectively. In six Pac-12 games this season, they have allowed a grand total of 63 points. If Washington comes to play, they should win by double digits.
Pro's pick: Washington 31, Stanford 17
TCU quarterback Kenny Hill is ready to plant a flag in Norman.
No.8 TCU (8-1, 5-1 Big 12) vs. No.5 Oklahoma (8-1, 5-1 Big 12)
When: 7 p.m. CT, Saturday
Where: Memorial Stadium, Norman, Okla.
TV: Fox
Series: Oklahoma leads 11-5.
Spread: Oklahoma by 7.
SUPER STAT OF THE WEEK: The Big 12's best offense (Oklahoma, 608.2 yards per game, ranked No.1 nationally) against the conference's best defense (TCU, 284.1 yards per game, No.6 nationally).
Joe says: This is the first matchup between Oklahoma and TCU when both teams are ranked in the Top 10. In 2015, Oklahoma was ranked No.7 and TCU was ranked No.11. Oklahoma won that game 30-29, and went on to lose to Clemson in the semifinal of the College Football Playoff. OU quarterback Baker Mayfield put himself near the top of the Heisman Trophy conversation after last week's stellar performance against rival Oklahoma State. Mayfield relishes playing on the road, and he lit up Stillwater with 598 yards passing and five touchdowns. It will be difficult to prevent an emotional letdown after such a dramatic victory against Oklahoma State. TCU has been doing it with defense, allowing opponents seven points or less in five of its last nine games. With a balanced offensive attack, the Horned Frogs can keep it close.
Joe's pick: Oklahoma 35, TCU 31
Pro says: The last five games between these two teams have been decided by seven points or less. People think of OU as a passing team, but the run usually sets up the pass as they have rushed for more than 174 yards in each of the last seven games. TCU's run defense has been putting teams on lockdown the last three weeks, allowing just 12.3 yards per game. Frogs are 10-4 ATS as an underdog, and double revenge could tilt the scales.
Pro's pick: TCU 34, Oklahoma 30
No.3 Notre Dame (8-1) vs. No.10 Miami (8-0)
When: 7 p.m. CT, Saturday
Where: Hard Rock Stadium, Miami Gardens, Fla.
TV: ABC
Series: Notre Dame leads 17-7-1.
Spread: Notre Dame by 3.
SUPER STAT OF THE WEEK: Miami is 8-0 for the first time since 2002. The Canes went undefeated that season before losing to Ohio State in the Fiesta Bowl.
Joe says: Miracle Miami keeps winning close games, but this week could be their most difficult of the season. With two more interceptions against Virginia Tech, the Canes' defense has 11 picks in its last five games. This game against Notre Dame most likely will be determined on the ground, though. Irish running back Josh Adams entered last week's game against Wake Forest sixth nationally in rushing yards (146.1 yards per game), but then only played in the first quarter. Coach Brian Kelly vehemently rebuffed a report that Adams was held out due to Notre Dame's concussion protocol. Kelly said Adams just wasn't feeling himself. Can Miami stop Notre Dame's rushing attack? Let's take a look at last week. The Canes held Virginia Tech running back Travon McMillian to 52 rushing yards after he went for 131 rushing yards last season against Miami. This one is going to be close. I'm picking Miami because the Turnover Chain might be the best thing in college football right now.
Joe's pick: Miami 27, Notre Dame 24
Pro says: Notre Dame's offensive line is huge! The smallest offensive lineman is 305 pounds and they have been able to impose their will on almost everyone, running for plus-318 yards each of the last five games and had plus-400- and plus-500-yard efforts in games one and three. Miami's run defense is just ordinary at No.67 out of 130 schools. Unless Miami can put the Fighting Irish in long down-and-distance situations on third down, or they block a punt for a touchdown, it would appear that the Canes magical season is about to strike midnight.
Pro's pick: Notre Dame 24, Miami 17
UAB quarterback Spencer Brown is nation's second leading freshman runner behind Wisconsin Jonathan Taylor. Brown has 10 touchdowns this season.
UAB (6-3, 4-2 CUSA) vs. UTSA (5-3, 2-3 CUSA)
When: 6 p.m. CT, Saturday
Where: Alamodome, San Antonio, Texas
TV: Locally WTTO CW21
Series: UTSA leads 1-0.
Spread: UTSA by 7.5.
SUPER STAT OF THE WEEK: UAB freshman running back Spencer Brown is ranked 17th nationally (and second among freshmen) in rushing yards per game (116.6).
Joe says: UTSA scored just seven points last week in its loss to FIU, and the two teams combined for one of the most dreadful halves of football in the sport's history. OK, that's a gross overstatement, but it was bad … really, really bad. The two teams combined for eight punts, two fumbles, a missed field goal and no points. So, how is UTSA favored by more than seven points against the surging Blazers? UAB got off to a fast start last week against Rice and led 42-7 at halftime, but let's look beyond the points. Despite the lopsided score, UAB was outgained by Rice 463-439. The Blazers gave up huge chunks of yards, and a few shoestring tackles saved long touchdown plays. UTSA will have better team speed, and the Roadrunners still need a win to become bowl eligible. Who can blame the Blazers for an emotional letdown this week after last week's big victory and post-game celebration? UAB hasn't won three games in a row this season, and they won't here.
Joe's pick: UTSA 24, UAB 21
Pro says: Most people thought the Blazers would be wearing down this late in the season, but that's not the case. They are actually getting better by the week. Quarterback AJ Erdely was almost perfect last week, completing 20 of 21 passes in dismantling the Rice cakes. If UAB keeps improving they might just shock Florida next week. UTSA had red-zone offense woes in Miami against FIU as conference championship dreams might have been dashed.
Pro's pick: UTSA 29, UAB 24
Auburn's Gus Malzahn can build his reputation as a "big-game coach" this weekend.
No.1 Georgia (9-0, 6-0 SEC) vs. No.14 Auburn (7-2, 5-1 SEC)
When: 2:30 p.m. CT, Saturday
Where: Jordan-Hare Stadium, Auburn, Ala.
TV: CBS
Series: Georgia leads 57-55-8.
Spread: Georgia by 2.5.
SUPER STAT OF THE WEEK: Auburn is averaging nine points per game against Georgia over the last three seasons.
Joe says: Auburn's two main rivals are the two top-ranked teams in the country, and the Tigers play Georgia this week and Alabama in the season finale. It seems like a daunting task to win both games, but Auburn thinks it has the personnel to do it. Looking back at Auburn's season, the Tigers have only played two bad halves of football. Auburn has had a tendency to go into an offensive shell when it has the lead against good teams. It happened against Clemson and then again against LSU. If Gus Malzahn allows it to happen again, Auburn fans might completely lose their minds. "Malzahn plays scared in big games" is the reputation the Tigers' coach is cultivating for himself. Jarrett Stidham is going to be a great quarterback, but he has been flustered against elite defenses this season. Malzahn really needs this one, but I don't think he gets it.
Joe's pick: Georgia 21, Auburn 14
Pro says: Everything Auburn can do on offense, defense and special teams, Georgia can do better. Looks like the Bulldogs were just going through the motions last week against South Carolina. For Auburn to win quarterback Jarrett Stidham will have to be as good as advertised. Series favorite is 6-2 ATS and I'll keep riding them at least until they face off with Alabama.
Pro's pick: Georgia 28, Auburn 20
No.2 Alabama (9-0, 6-0 SEC) vs. No.16 Mississippi State (7-2, 3-2 SEC)
When: 6 p.m. CT, Saturday
Where: Davis Wade Stadium, Starkville, Miss.
TV: ESPN
Series: Alabama leads 79-18-3.
Spread: Alabama by 13.5.
SUPER STAT OF THE WEEK: In nine seasons at Mississippi State, coach Dan Mullen has nine victories against Top 25. That's tied with former State coach Jackie Sherrill, who needed 13 seasons to reach that win total.
Joe says: At first glance, I was tempted to consider Alabama vulnerable this week against Mississippi State. Shaun Dion Hamilton and Mack Wilson are both out for the season, and Minkah Fitzpatrick isn't 100 percent healthy. Then I remembered, oh, yeah, after a difficult test last season against LSU, Alabama blew out Mississippi State 51-3. Jalen Hurts had 447 total yards in that game, and accounted for five touchdowns (four passing). Alabama's injuries might be a problem come the Iron Bowl, but this week it will only serve to keep the defense on edge during practice. State has been inconsistent this season, and last week the Bulldogs needed a pick-six and a punt return for a touchdown to defeat UMass 34-23. Nationally, State might be a sexy pick to cover the spread this week, but look a little closer and there are signs that this could be a big day for the Tide.
Joe's pick: Alabama 38, Mississippi State 21
Pro says: If the game plays out like last year the Bulldogs are in trouble. They ran the ball 35 times for only 94 yards in a 51-3 beat down. In the only two tests so far this season, quarterback Nick Fitzgerald failed miserably. Bama is 9-2 against the spread (ATS) as an SEC visitor and I don't think Mississippi State has the speed, depth or playmakers on defense to slow down either the running or passing games of Alabama. It might be tight for awhile then expect them to stretch their legs by the fourth quarter.
Pro's pick: Alabama 41, Mississippi State 17
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