Nicola Sturgeon has again insisted she is not bluffing about her threat to hold a second referendum on Scottish independence in the event of a hard Brexit.
The UK government “would be making a very big mistake if they think I’m in any way bluffing” about holding a second independence vote just as the UK quit the EU, the Scottish first minister told BBC1’s Andrew Marr Show.
“I’m not going to sit back while Scotland is driven off a hard Brexit cliff edge with all the implications for jobs and the type of country we are that that would have,” she added.
Sturgeon’s language echoed the language she and other leaders of Britain’s devolved governments used after a meeting with Theresa May at Downing Street in October. Then she said: “There is nothing I’m doing just now which is bluffing or game-playing; it’s not a game of chicken, it’s not a game at all. [I] don’t want to see Scotland driven off a hard Brexit cliff edge.”
Since then, Sturgeon has published a detailed paper asserting that Scotland would be able to maintain membership of the single market and see freedom of movement even if the rest of the UK were to leave the EU.
The first minister told BBC Radio Scotland on Friday that if the prime minister struck a soft Brexit deal with the EU, which kept the UK or Scotland within the single market, then she would put a second independence referendum “to one side” for the foreseeable future. Sturgeon said she was genuinely seeking a compromise deal.
She insisted on the Marr show on Sunday that this proposition would allow May to honour her promise to English voters to quit the EU while allowing Scotland to keep the far closer ties to the bloc it voted for in the June referendum. It would mirror the deal being discussed to ensure open borders between the UK and Ireland post-Brexit, she added.
Sturgeon hinted she envisaged staging that snap independence vote within the two year deadline set by the EU once the UK triggers article 50 in March, but refused to set out a clear timetable or deadline on a decision to stage a new vote.
Constitutional experts and some within her own party, the SNP, believe Sturgeon’s options for a snap vote could be very limited because a final Brexit deal may not be clear until well into 2018 or even 2019.
With Scotland’s economy now far weaker than before the 2014 independence referendum, Sturgeon’s opponents believe she is using the threat of a second vote to press for far greater powers for the Scottish parliament as well as to placate her supporters.
All the opinion polls since October show Scottish voters are increasingly reluctant about a second poll being held before the UK leaves the EU, while overall support for independence has fallen back from a high of 53% immediately after the EU referendum to 45%.
With about a third of SNP voters opposed to EU membership, Sturgeon’s opponents say she faces a significant challenge to win a second independence vote.
But her strategists argue that level of support puts them in a strong position since they have not yet started a referendum campaign. The public consultation on a new draft bill empowering Holyrood to stage a fresh vote ends this week.
They doubt many anti-EU SNP voters would reject independence even if it meant EU membership. With 45% still in favour of independence, it suggests they only need to persuade another 210,000 Scots among the 4.1 million-strong electorate to vote yes to win.
Patrick Harvie, the Scottish Green party leader, told the Sunday Times his party would press Sturgeon to stage that second vote if there was a hard Brexit. His party now has six MSPs, giving Sturgeon the necessary Holyrood majority to pass a referendum bill.
SNP strategists believe their opponents are in a far weaker position than in 2014, since the catastrophic collapse in Labour party support and the still substantial dislike for the Tories in Scotland makes it far harder to find a natural leader for the no campaign.
Sturgeon indicated on the Andrew Marr show that the SNP’s core message during a referendum would be the divisive prospect of Scotland’s fate being determined by rightwing Tories ruling from London for the next 20 years.
“If we’re in a position where we’ve a UK prime minister saying no compromise Scotland just has to shut up and like it or lump it, then the question for Scotland – and it’s a much more fundamental question than just the EU or Brexit – is are we happy with that?” she said.
“Are we happy to have no voice in the UK we simply have to accept the direction of travel that an increasingly rightwing UK government wants to impose upon us?”
Kezia Dugdale, the Scottish Labour leader, said the binary choice being offered by Sturgeon was far too rigid. Winning support from the shadow chancellor, John McDonnell, she said Labour’s counter-offer to reorganise the UK on a far more federal structure and give Holyrood far more autonomy would preserve the UK.
“With power returning from Brussels, it is now clear that we need a people’s constitutional convention and a new act of union to reform where power lies across the whole of our country,” Dugdale said.
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