Playoff primer: Several girls teams have shot at region tourney
The Wichita Falls area has been well represented in regional tournaments the past few years, particularly on the girls side.
Just last season, Rider and Windthorst qualified for their respective regional tournaments with the Lady Raiders playing for a bid to the state tournament.
Two seasons ago, Rider and Windthorst was joined by Bowie in a regional tournament setting.
The area should expect similar representation this season with multiple teams poised and positioned to make a run at the regional tournament. For the most part, it's the usual suspects, but some of the area schools in the smallest classification might be ready to break through that quarterfinals wall and into a regional tournament field.
The girls basketball playoffs begin Monday. Either these dreams of regional and state berths live on or they're extinguished abruptly.
Last year, I attempted to predict the final four teams from each region containing area teams with decent success. Obviously, I haven't seen every team in these regions play. I haven't even seen every team in our area play, although I am familiar with their coaches, players and results.
I base these projections on this season's results, rankings and the opinions of different coaches I have spoken with.
Don't like my projection? That's fine. These teams have every chance to prove me wrong. I dare them to do so.
REGION I-5A
Final four: Amarillo, Colleyville Heritage, Canyon, Boswell
Three of the four seem like locks with Amarillo, Canyon and Boswell. Heritage is the team Rider will draw in the second round, assuming the Lady Raiders beat Aledo in bi-district Monday.
In a matchup of two regional tournament qualifiers from last season, Aledo seems to be a favorable draw for Rider, but did just play No. 5 Boswell within two points to end the regular season. Not that they're unbeatable, but No. 11 Heritage seems like a challenge the Lady Raiders will struggle to overcome.
Fort Worth Trimble Tech is also in that portion of the bracket and would be awaiting the Lady Raiders in the regional quarterfinals should they upset Heritage. Trimble Tech enters the postseason ranked 20th.
Ultimately, the region favorites are No. 1 Amarillo and No. 3 Canyon. Those two split their season series in district play with Canyon accounting for Amarillo's lone loss.
Boswell hasn't lost a game since November, but played in a weak district that didn't offer much challenge.
This region belongs to the Canyon Lady Eagles until someone takes it away from them. That someone just might be the Amarillo Lady Sandies.
REGION I-4A
Final four: Midland Greenwood, Godley, Levelland, Stephenville
It was tempting to put Burkburnett in the final four. The Lady Bulldogs certainly have a chance, but they have to stay hot shooting the ball.
Burk opens with an easy game against Big Spring, then draws either Mineral Wells or Glen Rose, which is led by former Rider coach Ramsey Ghazal. Glen
Rose finished third in a tough district and would be a difficult matchup, particularly with Ghazal's familiarity with the Burk program.
Give Burk the slight advantage in that game, but the bigger challenge lies in the regional quarterfinals against No. 15 Brownwood or No. 10 Stephenville.
Amazingly, these two longtime rivals aren't in the same district, didn't play in the regular season and will likely meet in the second round of the playoffs. They met in the regional quarters last season. Stephenville has the better resume on paper, but is beatable.
This is where Burk has to pull an upset. The Lady Bulldogs have what it takes to beat Stephenville, but I'm trusting the rankings and results, giving Stephenville the nod.
No. 7 Levelland has the clearest path to the Region I-4A Tournament and would be Burk's likely opponent in the semifinals should the Lady Bulldogs upset Stephenville.
Greenwood is a Cinderella pick of sorts. The Rangerettes, who played in the regional finals last season, have been ranked this season, but aren't currently. They have a strong junior class and an impressive resume. No. 13 Denver City is the favorite in that portion of the bracket, but the Fillies seem ripe for the picking.
In truth, the real Region I-4A championship might be taking place in the quarterfinals when No. 4 Godley plays No. 2 Kennedale. It's a monster matchup and both teams are state tournament worthy.
Kennedale won 55-52 at a neutral site in November.
Godley wins the rematch and goes on to win the region.
REGION I-3A
Final four: Wall, Bowie, Canadian, Jim Ned
This region is top heavy with three of the current top four teams in TABC's Class 3A rankings. Of the four teams projected to reach the regional tournament, Bowie is the lowest seeded at No. 10.
The Lady Rabbits have a fairly clear path to region and will be the clear favorites in their portion of the bracket. A projected quarterfinals matchup with
Peaster, which opens against Holliday, is the biggest hurdle.
Bowie owns a 10-point win against Peaster this season, although the Lady Hounds did gain the No. 1 seed in District 7-3A ahead of perennial regional contender Brock.
Jacksboro has the unfortunate draw of running into Jim Ned in the second round. The Tigerettes lost the Jim Ned by 21 earlier this season. They're a young team that could be a regional contender next season.
If the Lady Rabbits do qualify for region, they're going to be an overwhelming underdog at Midland's Chaparral Center.
No. 1 Canadian will be the favorite, but No. 3 Wall and No. 4 Jim Ned have won their fair share of regional and state titles. Wall has won state in two of the last three seasons.
I always enjoyed covering this tournament during my time in Midland. It was always high-quality basketball with a great atmosphere featuring fan bases that traveled extremely well. The trip would be memorable for Bowie in that regard.
The Lady Rabbits have already had an incredible season under first-year coach Chuck Hall, but it could get even more magical.
REGION II-2A
Final four: Bells, Union Grove, Muenster, Martin's Mill
Windthorst is certainly in the mix to advance to a third straight Region II-2A Tournament, but the Trojanettes appear to have a tougher path to get there.
The fact Muenster could be waiting for the Trojanettes in the quarterfinals might be problematic. Typically, Muenster wins its district, but lost three games in 11-2A this season and finished second behind No. 17 Era.
But Muenster also owns wins over the seventh-ranked Trojanettes and No. 10 Hico, which faces the Lady Hornets in the second round. That means if the Trojanettes, who open with Hamilton and then likely Alvord, don't draw Muenster they get Hico.
Hico presents its own challenges for Windthorst, including bigger athletic guards who will try to trap and take the ball out of Tatum Veitenheimer's hands. The Trojanettes overcame Hico last season, winning 56-45.
No one in Class 2A is going to stop Veitenheimer, but Muenster or Hico might have enough to slow her down. I'm picking Muenster, but it feels like a tossup between any of these three teams.
Martin's Mill is the No. 1 team in Class 2A and the opponent Windthorst would draw in the regional semifinals.
Bells, ranked seventh, is probably the second best team in the region, but will get a challenge from Era in the quarterfinals.
This is Martin's Mill's region to lose and it will be surprising if anyone can steal it away.
REGION I-A
Final four: Nazareth, Knox City, Silverton, Spur
Knox City is playing as well as any Class A team in the area in the past month. The Houndettes dominated their district, but this would be a big leap for a program that's never advanced past the area round of the playoffs.
This team is better than past playoff qualifiers, though, having won their first district title in around 15 years.
They'll likely draw a solid Whitharral squad in area after a first-round bye. It's a winnable game. No. 14 Ropes is the favorite in this portion of the bracket. The Lady Eagles have only lost three games with a fairly young roster. They haven't advanced past area since winning state in 1957.
So it's two teams lacking deep playoff experience. The Knox City roster is strong, headlined by Myca Flowers and Brooke Jones, and that's why I'm picking them to pull an upset over Ropes or Paducah, which owns a win over Knox City in November and could best Ropes.
Crowell is another area team to watch in the region, but while the Lady Cats don't face a ranked team in their first two games, Valley and Lorenzo have strong resumes. Valley is the bi-district opponent and was third in its district behind No. 5 Spur and typically tough Paducah.
Even if the Lady Cats get past Valley and Lorenzo, Spur is waiting in the quarters.
As far as the region as a whole, it belongs to Nazareth. It feels like it always has.
REGION III-A
Final four: Huckabay, Dodd City, Lipan, Slidell
There are three area teams that should be able to knock on the door of the regional tournament, but entering it will be a challenge.
Newcastle, Bellevue and Forestburg each have favorable forecasts in the first two rounds of the playoffs. Newcastle won District 17-A for the fourth straight time and gets a bi-district bye. The Lady Bobcats will be the favorite against either Priddy or Iredell in area.
But as with Bellevue and Forestburg, it's the regional quarterfinals where things get tricky.
Newcastle is likely to draw No. 15 Lipan, which finished second in District 18-A behind third-ranked Huckabay. Lipan is the defending Class A state champion and regularly plays up in classification during non-district. It would be considered a huge upset for Newcastle to knock off the Lady Indians.
The same is true of Bellevue should it get past Tioga and Fruitvale in the first rounds, which is an achievable feat. The Lady Eagles would draw No. 2 Dodd City in the regional quarters. Dodd City is the biggest threat to keeping Nazareth from winning its 21st state championship.
Forestburg might have the easiest path to the third round of the three area teams. The Lady Horns should be better than Ector to open the playoffs, but probably face an easier matchup with Saltillo in area. That sets them up for a rematch with district foe Slidell in the regional quarters.
The Lady Horns led District 21-A champion Slidell heading into the fourth quarter of their last meeting Jan. 20. It's not going to be surprising if standout junior Alexia Brittain can get Forestburg past Slidell and into the regional tournament where Lipan will await in the semifinals.
The real regional championship probably happens in the other projected regional semifinal, though. Huckabay had its season ended by Dodd City in last year's regional semifinals. This game is worthy of being for the regional title, but Dodd City is still a strong favorite despite the Lady Indians being ranked just a spot below.
TAPPS A
The full bracket for TAPPS's lowest classification hasn't been posted online, yet. That makes it difficult to project.
But one has to figure Notre Dame and Christ Academy will figure into the later rounds of the playoffs with both having a shot at making the state tournament. Notre Dame has the clearer path to state and only needs to win one game to advance to the regional round. That one game will be at home.
Granbury NCTA could be an obstacle both teams have to overcome at some point in region or state. DeSoto Canterbury and Edinburg Harvest are threats at the state tournament. Regardless, it won't be shocking to see one or both of Notre Dame or Christ Academy making a push for the state tournament.
But there's no room for a bad game this time of year. A slow start or one bad quarter could spell the end of a playoff run.
That's the beauty, and horror, that is the high school basketball playoffs.