26 July 2017
2017- n° 197In July 2017, households' confidence falters after a two-month rise Monthly consumer confidence survey - July 2017
In July 2017, households' confidence in the economic situation has declined markedly: the composite indicator has lost 4 points and reached 104, after gaining 8 points over the two previous months. However, it stays above its long-term average (100).
In July 2017, households' confidence in the economic situation has declined markedly: the composite indicator has lost 4 points and reached 104, after gaining 8 points over the two previous months. However, it stays above its long-term average (100).
graphiqueGraph1 – Consumer confidence synthetic index
- Source: INSEE
Personal situation
Personal financial situation: sharp downturn
In July, households' opinion on their past financial situation has been deteriorating: the corresponding balance has lost 3 points (after +5 points in June). It remains above its long-term average. Households' opinion on their future financial situation has receded sharply: the corresponding balance has lost 6 points (after +2 points in June) and has gone back below its long-term average.
The share of households considering it is a suitable time to make major purchases is stable in July, after a steep rise in June (+11 points). The balance stands way above its long-term average.
Expected saving capacity: decreasing
In July, households' balance of opinion on their current saving capacity has lost 2 points. The one on their expected saving capacity has lost 4 points. Both balances are back to their March 2017 level. They stay above their long-term average.
The share of households considering it is a suitable time to save has increased slightly (+2 points). The corresponding balance has hit its highest level since April 2015, but remains clearly below its long-term average.
graphiqueGraph2 – Balances on personal financial situation and standard of living in France
- Source: INSEE
Economic situation in France
Future standard of living in France: less optimism
In July 2017, households' balance of opinion on the future standard of living in France has fallen back strongly (−11 points), after soaring in May and June (+22 points cumulatively). Households' balance of opinion on the past standard of living in France is unchanged, after rising by +6 points in June. It stays at its highest level since February 2003. Both balances remain above their long-term average.
Unemployment: fears growing slightly
Households' fears concerning unemployment have gone up a little in July: the corresponding balance has increased by 2 points after a three-month decline. However, it remains far below its long-term average.
Expected inflation rising
In July, households are more numerous to expect prices to increase during the next twelve months: the corresponding balance has recovered by 9 points, and has returned above its long-term average.
Households are as numerous as in June to consider that prices were on the rise during the last twelve months: the corresponding balance is stable, well below its long-term average level.
graphiqueGraph3 – Households' unemployment expectations
- Source: INSEE
graphiqueGraph4 – Households' perception of prices
- Source: INSEE
tableauTable – CONSUMER OPINION: synthetic index and opinion balances
| Avg. (1) | April 17 | May 17 | June 17 | July 17 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Composite indicator (2) | 100 | 100 | 102 | 108 | 104 |
| Financial sit., past 12 m. | –21 | –20 | –19 | –14 | –17 |
| Financial sit., next 12 m. | –5 | –9 | –5 | –3 | –9 |
| Current saving capacity | 8 | 13 | 14 | 14 | 12 |
| Expected saving capacity | –9 | –2 | –2 | 1 | –3 |
| Savings intentions, next 12 m. | 18 | 6 | 6 | 7 | 9 |
| Major purchases intentions, next 12 m. | –14 | –3 | –12 | –1 | –1 |
| Standard of living, past 12 m. | –45 | –50 | –45 | –39 | –39 |
| Standard of living, next 12 m. | –25 | –21 | –15 | 1 | –10 |
| Unemployment, next 12 m. | 35 | 15 | 14 | 6 | 8 |
| Consumer prices, past 12 m. | –16 | –49 | –54 | –54 | –54 |
| Consumer prices, next 12 m. | –34 | –28 | –34 | –41 | –32 |
- (1) Average value between January 1987 and December 2016
- (2) This indicator is normalised in such a way that its average equals 100 and standard error equals 10 over the estimation period (1987-2016).
- Source: INSEE, monthly consumer confidence survey
Revisions
Compared to the previous estimation in June, the households' confidence index is slightly revised downward (−1 point) in April and May, due to updated seasonal adjustment coefficients.
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