From: RobertOtto<robertotto25@gmail.

com>
Senttime: 01/04/201612:40:09PM
To: WayneLimberg<wplimberg@aol.com>
Subject: McFaul

http://cddrl.fsi.stanford.edu/publications/getting_russia_right

HistorianswillsomedaywritethatRussiare-enteredtheWesterncommunityofstatesasamarketdemocracyattheendofthe20th
century.Youwouldn'tthinkso,however,fromthevituperativeandpessimistictoneofmostcontemporarycommentaryintheUnitedStates
aboutRussiaandU.S.-Russianrelations.FocusingonluridaccountsofRussianmoneylaundering,cronyism,andwidespreadpolitical
andeconomicdisarray,politiciansandpunditshaveblastedtheClintonadministrationformishandlingacrucialstrategicrelationship
and"losing"Russia.

Youdthinkthatanyonewiththis,um,historywouldbealittlelesscategoricalandabitmorehumbleinhispublicstatements.
 From: RobertOtto<robertotto25@gmail.com>
Senttime: 01/09/201601:05:07AM
To: ChristopherBort<chrisbort@me.com>
Cc: Lindanemec<lindanemec@gmail.com>
Subject: Re:Abeercratefullofshit...Clinton-Blairtranscriptsreleased

Ithinknot

OnJan8,2016,at9:39PM,ChristopherBort<chrisbort@me.com>wrote:

DuncanAstle(@DuncanAstle)
1/8/16,8:16AM
ThisisthebestClinton-BlairexchangethatIhavereadsofar...youcouldnotmakeitup.
pic.twitter.com/qQX9Wq5FFF

DownloadtheTwitterapp

SentfrommyiPad
 From: DonaldJensen<donald.jensen8@gmail.com>
Senttime: 01/01/201605:38:55AM
To: RobertOtto<robertotto25@gmail.com>
Subject: Re:.....speakingofvillageidiots

:)))

AndthatUkraineisnotRussia.

OnFri,Jan1,2016at8:37AM,RobertOtto<robertotto25@gmail.com>wrote:
SomebodyneedstotellRojanskiythatBelarusisnotRussia.

OnJan1,2016,at8:36AM,DonaldJensen<donald.jensen8@gmail.com>wrote:

Thanks.Missedit.TillIreadyourcommentsIwasinsurewhetheryouwerereferringtoMikey,Rojansky,or
both.

OnFri,Jan1,2016at8:31AM,RobertOtto<robertotto25@gmail.com>wrote:
http://www.washingtonpost.com/news/powerpost/wp/2015/12/30/lack-of-russia-experts-has-the-u-s-playing-
catch-up/?postshare=1351451515733124&tid=ss_fb-bottom

Sotheproblem20yearsagowasnottheanalysisthatRussiawasonapathtowarddemocracy,theproblemwasthe
analysisthatRussia'sindecline.

a)somebodyneedstotellthismoronthatdeclineisnotsynonymouswithimmediatecollapse."

b)somebodywhowrotethisgemshouldbeatadmorehumbleinhispublicpronouncments

http://cddrl.fsi.stanford.edu/publications/getting_russia_right

HistorianswillsomedaywritethatRussiare-enteredtheWesterncommunityofstatesasamarketdemocracyattheendof
the20thcentury.Youwouldn'tthinkso,however,fromthevituperativeandpessimistictoneofmostcontemporary
commentaryintheUnitedStatesaboutRussiaandU.S.-Russianrelations.FocusingonluridaccountsofRussianmoney
laundering,cronyism,andwidespreadpoliticalandeconomicdisarray,politiciansandpunditshaveblastedtheClinton
administrationformishandlingacrucialstrategicrelationshipand"losing"Russia.

Ofcoursethisisthesameguywhowrote(UnfinishedRevolutionpp24-25)"ifhistorymatteredallthetime,therewould
neverbeanychange."
 From: RobertOtto<robertotto25@gmail.com>
Senttime: 01/18/201608:44:52AM
To: RobertOtto<robertotto25@gmail.com>
Subject: WRM:JacksonianTradition

http://denbeste.nu/external/Mead01.html

TheJacksonianTraditionbyWalterRussellMead

InthelastfivemonthsofWorldWarII,Americanbombingraidsclaimedthelivesofmorethan900,000Japanesecivilians
notcountingthecasualtiesfromtheatomicstrikesagainstHiroshimaandNagasaki.Thisismorethantwicethetotal
numberofcombatdeathsthattheUnitedStateshassufferedinallitsforeignwarscombined.

Ononenight,thatofMarch9-10,1945,234Superfortressesdropped1,167tonsofincendiarybombsoverdowntown
Tokyo83,793Japanesebodieswerefoundinthecharredremainsanumbergreaterthanthe80,942combatfatalitiesthat
theUnitedStatessustainedintheKoreanandVietnamWarscombined.

SincetheSecondWorldWar,theUnitedStateshascontinuedtoemploydevastatingforceagainstbothcivilianandmilitary
targets.Outofapre-warpopulationof9.49million,anestimated1millionNorthKoreanciviliansarebelievedtohavedied
asaresultofU.S.actionsduringthe1950-53conflict.Duringthesamewar,33,870Americansoldiersdiedincombat,
meaningthatU.S.forceskilledapproximatelythirtyNorthKoreanciviliansforeveryAmericansoldierwhodiedinaction.
TheUnitedStatesdroppedalmostthreetimesasmuchexplosivetonnageintheVietnamWaraswasusedintheSecond
WorldWar,andsomethingontheorderof365,000Vietnameseciviliansarebelievedtohavebeenkilledduringtheperiodof
Americaninvolvement.

RegardlessofClausewitzsadmonitionthat"casualtyreports...areneveraccurate,seldomtruthful,andinmostcases
deliberatelyfalsified",thesenumbersaretoostrikingtoignore.Theydonot,ofcourse,suggestamoralparallelbetweenthe
behaviorof,say,GermanandJapaneseaggressorsandAmericanforcesseekingtodefeatthoseaggressorsintheshortest
possibletime.GermanandJapaneseforcesusedtheindiscriminatemurderofciviliansasaroutinepolicetoolinoccupied
territory,andwholesalemassacresofciviliansoftenaccompaniedGermanandJapaneseadvancesintonewterritory.The
behavioroftheGermanEinsatzgruppenandoftheJapanesearmyduringtheRapeofNankinghasnosignificantparallelon
theAmericanside.

IntheColdWar,too,theevilstheAmericansfoughtwerefarworsethanthosetheyinflicted.Tensofmillionsmore
innocentciviliansincommunistnationsweremurderedbytheirowngovernmentsinpeacetimethaneverdiedastheresult
ofAmericanattemptstohaltcommunismsspread.War,evenbrutalwar,wasmoremercifulthancommunistrule.

Nevertheless,theAmericanwarrecordshouldmakeusthink.AnobserverwhothinksofAmericanforeignpolicyonlyin
termsofthecommercialrealismoftheHamiltonians,thecrusadingmoralismofWilsoniantranscendentalists,andthesupple
pacifismoftheprincipledbutslipperyJeffersonianswouldbeatalosstoaccountforAmericanruthlessnessatwar.

ThosewhoprefertobelievethatthepresentglobalhegemonyoftheUnitedStatesemergedthroughaprocessof
immaculateconceptionaverttheireyesfrommanydistressingmomentsintheAmericanascension.Yetstudentsof
AmericanpowercannotignoreoneofthechiefelementsinAmericansuccess.TheUnitedStatesoveritshistoryhas
consistentlysummonedthewillandthemeanstocompelitsenemiestoyieldtoitsdemands.

ThroughthelongsweepofAmericanhistory,therehavebeenmanyoccasionswhenpublicopinion,oratleastanimportant
partofit,gotaheadofpoliticiansindemandingwar.ManyoftheIndianwarswerecausedlessbyIndianaggressionthan
bymovementsoffrontierpopulationswillingtoprovokeandfightwarswithIndiantribesthatwerenominallyunder
Washingtonsprotectionandcontrarybothtothepolicyandthewishesofthenationalgovernment.TheWarof1812
cameaboutlargelybecauseofapopularmovementintheSouthandMidwest.AbrahamLincolnbarelysucceededin
preventingawarwithBritainovertheTrentAffairduringtheCivilWarpublicopinionmadeitdifficultforhimtofindan
acceptable,face-savingsolutiontotheproblem.Morerecently,JohnKennedy,LyndonJohnsonandRichardNixonwereall
hauntedbyfearsthatapulloutfromtheVietnamWarwouldtriggerapopularbacklash.

Oncewarsbegin,asignificantelementofAmericanpublicopinionsupportswagingthematthehighestpossiblelevelof
intensity.ThedevastatingtacticsofthewarsagainsttheIndians,GeneralShermanscampaignof1864-65,andthe
unprecedentedaerialbombardmentsofWorldWarIIwereallbroadlypopularintheUnitedStates.DuringboththeKorean
andVietnamWars,presidentscameunderintensepressure,notonlyfrommilitaryleadersbutalsofrompublicopinion,to
hittheenemywithallavailableforceinallavailableplaces.ThroughouttheColdWarthepathofleastresistancein
Americanpoliticswasgenerallythemorehawkishstance.Politicianswhoadvocatednegotiatedcompromiseswiththe
Sovietenemywerelabeledappeasersandpaidaheavypoliticalprice.TheKoreanandVietnamWarslostpublicsupportin
partbecauseofpoliticaldecisionsnottorisktheconsequencesofall-outwar,notnecessarilystoppingshortoftheuseof
nuclearweapons.ThemostcostlydecisionGeorgeBushtookintheGulfWarwasnottosendgroundforcesintoIraq,but
tostopshortoftheoccupationofBaghdadandthecaptureandtrialofSaddamHussein.

ItisoftenremarkedthattheAmericanpeoplearemorereligiousthantheiralliesinWesternEurope.Butitisequallytruethat
theyaremoremilitary-minded.Currently,theAmericanpeoplesupportwithoutcomplaintwhatiseasilythehighestmilitary
budgetintheworld.In1998theUnitedStatesspentasmuchondefenseasitsNATOallies,SouthKorea,Japan,thePersian
Gulfstates,RussiaandChinacombined.Inresponsetowidespreadpublicconcernaboutadeclineinmilitarypreparedness,
theClintonadministrationandtheRepublicanCongressareplanningsubstantialincreasesinmilitaryspendingintheyearsto
come.

Americansdonotmerelypayfortheseforces,theyusethem.SincetheendoftheVietnamWar,takenbysomeasopening
aneweraofreluctanceintheexerciseofAmericanpower,theUnitedStateshasdeployedcombatforcesin,oruseddeadly
forceover,Cambodia,Iran,Grenada,Panama,Lebanon,Libya,SaudiArabia,Kuwait,Iraq,Turkey,Somalia,Haiti,Bosnia,
Sudan,Afghanistan,theSouthChinaSea,Liberia,Macedonia,AlbaniaandYugoslavia.Thisisarecordthatnoothercountry
comesclosetomatching.

Itisalsogenerallyconcededthat,withtheexceptionofahandfulofeliteunitsinsuchforcesastheBritishArmy,American
troopshaveastronger"warriorculture"thandothearmiesofotherwealthycountries.Indeed,ofallthenatocountries
otherthanTurkeyandGreece,onlyGreatBritaintodayhasanythingliketheAmerican"warlobby"thatbecomesactivein
timesofnationalcrisisapoliticalforcethatundercertaincircumstancesdemandswar,supportsthedecisiveuseofforce,
andurgespoliticalleaderstostopwastingtimewithnegotiations,sanctionsandSecurityCouncilmeetingsinordertoattack
theenemywithallpossiblestrength.

WhyisitthatU.S.publicopinionisoftensoquickthoughsometimessoslowtosupportarmedinterventionabroad?
Whataretheprovocationsthatenergizepublicopinion(atleastsomeofit)forwarandhow,ifatall,isthis"warlobby"
relatedtotheotherelementsofthatopinion?Thekeytothiswarlikedisposition,andtootherimportantfeaturesof
Americanforeignpolicy,istobefoundinwhatIshallcallitsJacksoniantradition,inhonorofthesixthpresidentofthe
UnitedStates.

TheSchoolofAndrewJackson

ItisatributetothegeneralhistoricalamnesiaaboutAmericanpoliticsbetweentheWarof1812andtheCivilWarthat
AndrewJacksonisnotmorewidelycountedamongthegreatestofAmericanpresidents.VictorintheBattleofNew
OrleansperhapsthemostdecisivebattleintheshapingofthemodernworldbetweenTrafalgarandStalingradAndrew
JacksonlaidthefoundationofAmericanpoliticsformostofthenineteenthcentury,andhisinfluenceisstillfelttoday.With
theeverreadyhelpofthebrilliantMartinVanBuren,hetookAmericanpoliticsfromtheeraofsilkstockingsintothe
smoke-filledroom.Everypoliticalpartysincehispresidencyhasdrawnonthesymbolism,theinstitutionsandthe
instrumentsofpowerthatJacksonpioneered.

Morethanthat,hebroughttheAmericanpeopleintothepoliticalarena.Restrictedstatefranchiseswithhighproperty
qualificationsmeantthatin1820manyAmericanstateshadhigherpropertyqualificationsforvotersthandidboroughsfor
theBritishHouseofCommons.WithJacksonspresidency,universalmalesuffragebecamethebasisofAmericanpolitics
andpoliticalvalues.

Hispoliticalmovementor,moreaccurately,thecommunityofpoliticalfeelingthathewieldedintoaninstrumentofpower
remainsinmanywaysthemostimportantinAmericanpolitics.SolidlyDemocraticthroughtheTrumanadministration(a
traditioncommemoratedintheannualJefferson-JacksonDaydinnersthatarestillthehighpointsonDemocraticParty
calendarsinmanycitiesandstates),JacksonianAmericashiftedtowardtheRepublicanPartyunderRichardNixonthe
mostimportantpoliticalchangeinAmericanlifesincetheSecondWorldWar.ThefutureofJacksonianpoliticalallegiance
willbeoneofthekeystothepoliticsofthetwenty-firstcentury.

Suspiciousofuntrammeledfederalpower(Waco),skepticalabouttheprospectsfordomesticandforeigndo-gooding
(welfareathome,foreignaidabroad),opposedtofederaltaxesbutobstinatelyfondoffederalprogramsseenasprimarily
helpingthemiddleclass(SocialSecurityandMedicare,mortgageinterestsubsidies),Jacksoniansconstitutealargepolitical
interest.

InsomewaysJacksoniansresembletheJeffersonians,withwhomtheirpoliticalfortuneswerelinkedforsomanydecades.
LikeJeffersonians,Jacksoniansareprofoundlysuspiciousofelites.Theygenerallypreferaloosefederalstructurewithas
muchpoweraspossibleretainedbystatesandlocalgovernments.Butthedifferencesbetweenthetwomovementsrunvery
deepsodeepthatduringtheColdWartheywereondeadoppositesidesofmostimportantforeignpolicyquestions.To
usethelanguageoftheVietnamera,atimewhenJeffersoniansandJacksonianswerefightinginthestreetsoverforeign
policy,theformerwerethemostdovishcurrentinmainstreampoliticalthoughtduringtheColdWar,whilethelatterwere
themostconsistentlyhawkish.

OnewaytograspthedifferencebetweenthetwoschoolsistoseethatbothJeffersoniansandJacksoniansarecivil
libertarians,passionatelyattachedtotheConstitutionandespeciallytotheBillofRights,anddeeplyconcernedtopreserve
thelibertiesofordinaryAmericans.ButwhiletheJeffersoniansaremostprofoundlydevotedtotheFirstAmendment,
protectingthefreedomofspeechandprohibitingafederalestablishmentofreligion,JacksoniansseetheSecond
Amendment,therighttobeararms,asthecitadelofliberty.JeffersoniansjointheAmericanCivilLibertiesUnion
JacksoniansjointheNationalRifleAssociation.Insodoing,bothareconvincedthattheyarestandingatthebarricadesof
freedom.

ForforeignersandforsomeAmericans,theJacksoniantraditionistheleastimpressiveinAmericanpolitics.Itisthemost
deploredabroad,themostdenouncedathome.JacksonianchairsoftheSenateForeignRelationsCommitteearethedespair
ofhigh-mindedpeopleeverywhere,astheyholdupadhesiontotheKyotoProtocol,starvetheUNandtheIMF,cutforeign
aid,andbantheuseofU.S.fundsforpopulationcontrolprogramsabroad.Whenspokesmenforotherschoolsofthought
speakaboutthe"problems"ofAmericanforeignpolicy,thepersistenceandpoweroftheJacksonianschoolarehighon
theirlist.Whilesomeofthisfashionabledespairmaybeoverdone,andisperhapsareflectionofdifferentclassinterestsand
values,itistruethatJacksoniansoftenfigureasthemostobstructionistoftheschools,astheleastlikelytosupport
Wilsonianinitiativesforabetterworld,tounderstandJeffersoniancallsforpatientdiplomacyindifficultsituations,orto
acceptHamiltoniantradestrategies.YetwithoutJacksonians,theUnitedStateswouldbeamuchweakerpower.

AprincipalexplanationofwhyJacksonianpoliticsaresopoorlyunderstoodisthatJacksonianismislessanintellectualor
politicalmovementthananexpressionofthesocial,culturalandreligiousvaluesofalargeportionoftheAmericanpublic.
Anditisdoublyobscurebecauseithappenstoberootedinoneoftheportionsofthepublicleastrepresentedinthemedia
andtheprofessoriat.JacksonianAmericaisafolkcommunitywithastrongsenseofcommonvaluesandcommondestiny
thoughperiodicallyledbyintellectuallybrilliantmenlikeAndrewJacksonhimselfitisneitheranideologynoraself-
consciousmovementwithaclearhistoricaldirectionorpoliticaltableoforganization.Nevertheless,JacksonianAmericahas
producedandlookssettocontinuetoproduceonepoliticalleaderandmovementafteranother,anditislikelyto
continuetoenjoymajorinfluenceoverbothforeignanddomesticpolicyintheUnitedStatesfortheforeseeablefuture.

TheEvolutionofaCommunity

ItisnotfashionabletodaytothinkoftheAmericannationasafolkcommunityboundtogetherbydeepculturalandethnic
ties.BelieversinamulticulturalAmericaattackthisideafromonedirection,butconservativestoohaveatendencytotalk
abouttheUnitedStatesasanationbasedonideologyratherthanethnicity.FormerBritishPrimeMinisterMargaret
Thatcher,amongothers,hassaidthattheUnitedStatesisunlikeothernationsbecauseitisbasedonanidearatherthanona
communityofnationalexperience.ThecontinuingandgrowingvitalityoftheJacksoniantraditionis,forbetterorworse,
livingproofthatsheisatleastpartlywrong.

IfJeffersonianismisthebook-ideologyoftheUnitedStates,Jacksonianpopulismisitsfolk-ideology.Historically,American
populismhasbeenbasedlessontheideasoftheEnlightenmentthanonthecommunityvaluesandsenseofidentityamong
theBritishcolonizerswhofirstsettledthiscountry.Inparticular,asDavidHackettFischerhasshown,Jacksonianpopulism
canbeoriginallyidentifiedwithasubgroupamongthesesettlers,theso-called"Scots-Irish",whosettledthebackcountry
regionsoftheCarolinasandVirginia,andwhowentontosettlemuchoftheOldWestWestVirginia,Kentucky,partsof
IndianaandIllinoisandthesouthernandsouthcentralstatesofTennessee,Missouri,Alabama,MississippiandTexas.
Jacksonianpopulismtodayhasmovedbeyonditsoriginalethnicandgeographicallimits.Likecountrymusic,another
productofJacksonianculture,JacksonianpoliticsandfolkfeelinghasbecomeabasicelementinAmericanconsciousness
thatcanbefoundfromoneendofthecountrytotheother.

TheScots-Irishwereahardyandwarlikepeople,withacultureandoutlookformedbycenturiesofbitterwarfarebefore
theycametotheUnitedStates.Fischershowshow,trappedonthefrontiersbetweenEnglandandScotland,orplantedas
ProtestantcoloniesinthehostilesoilofIreland,thisculturewasshapedthroughcenturiesofconstant,bloodywar.The
RevolutionarystruggleandgenerationsofsavagefrontierconflictintheUnitedStatesreproducedtheseconditionsinthe
NewWorldtheCivilWarfoughtwithparticularferocityintheborderstatesrenewedtheculturalheritageofwar.

TheroleofwhatwearecallingJacksonianAmericainnineteenth-centuryAmericaisclear,butmanytwentieth-century
observersmadewhatonceseemedthereasonableassumptionthatJacksonianvaluesandpoliticsweredyingout.These
observerswerebothsurprisedanddiscomfitedwhenRonaldReaganspoliticalsuccessshowedthatJacksonianAmerica
haddonemorethansurviveitwas,andis,thriving.

WhathashappenedisthatJacksonianculture,valuesandself-identificationhavespreadbeyondtheiroriginalethniclimits.
Inthe1920sand1930sthehighland,bordertraditioninAmericanlifewaswidelythoughttobedyingout,ethnically,
culturallyandpolitically.PartofthiswastheeconomicanddemographiccollapseofthetraditionalhomeofJacksonian
America:thefamilyfarm.Atthesametime,massimmigrationfromsouthernandEasternEuropetiltedtheethnicbalanceof
theAmericanpopulationeverfartherfromitscolonialmix.NewEnglandYankeeswereavanishingspecies,limitedtothe
hillsofNewHampshireandVermont,whilethecitiesandplainsofConnecticut,MassachusettsandRhodeIslandfilledwith
Irishmen,Italians,PortugueseandGreeks.ThegreatcitiesoftheUnitedStateswereincreasinglyfilledwithCatholics,
membersoftheOrthodoxchurchesandJewsallprofessinginonewayoranothercommunitariansocialvaluesvery
muchatoddswiththeindividualismoftraditionalAnglo-SaxonandAnglo-Celticculture.

AsHiramW.Evans,thesurprisinglyarticulateImperialWizardoftheKuKluxKlan,wrotein1926,theoldstockAmerican
ofhistimehadbecome

astrangerinlargepartsofthelandhisfathersgavehim.Moreover,heisamostunwelcomestranger,onemuchspitupon,
andonetowhomeventherighttohavehisownopinionsandtoworkforhisowninterestsisnowdeniedwithjeersand
revilings.WemustAmericanizetheAmericans,adistinguishedimmigrantsaidrecently.

Protestantismitselfwaslosingitsedge.ThemodernistcritiqueoftraditionalBiblicalreadingsfoundacceptanceinone
mainlinedenominationafteranotherEpiscopal,Presbyterian,MethodistandLutheranseminariesacceptedcritical,post-
DarwinianreadingsofScriptureself-described"fundamentalists"foughtaslow,butapparentlylosing,rearguardaction
againstthemodernistforces.ThenewmainlineProtestantismwasatolerant,evenanamby-pamby,religion.

Theoldnativistspirit,anti-immigrant,anti-modernartandapparentlyanti-twentiethcentury,stillhadsomebiteKuKlux
crossesflamedacrosstheMidwestaswellastheSouthduringthe1920sbutitalllookedlikethedeaththroesofan
outdatedidea.Therewerentmanymourners:muchofH.L.Menckenscareerwasbasedonexposingthelimitationsand
mockingthedeathofwhatwearecallingJacksonianAmerica.

Mostprogressive,rightthinkingintellectualsinmid-centuryAmericabelievedthatthefutureofAmericanpopulismlayina
socialdemocraticmovementbasedonurbanimmigrants.SocialactivistslikeWoodyGuthrieandPeteSeegerconsciously
soughttouseculturalformslikefolksongstoeasethetransitionfromtheoldindividualisticfolkworldtothecollectivenew
onethattheybelievedwasthewaveofthefuturetheycelebratedunionsandotherstrange,Europeanideasindownhome
countrytwangssothat,inthebitterwordsofHiramEvans,"Thereisasteadyfloodofalienideasbeingspreadoverthe
country,alwayscarefullydisguisedasAmerican."

Whatcamenextsurprisedalmosteveryone.Thetablesturned,andEvansAmericans"americanized"theimmigrantsrather
thantheotherwayaround.Inwhatisstillalargelyunheraldedtriumphofthemeltingpot,Northernimmigrantsgradually
assimilatedthevaluesofJacksonianindividualism.EachgenerationofnewAmericanswasless"social"andmore
individualisticthantheprecedingone.AmericanCatholics,onceamongtheworldsmostorthodox,remainedCatholicin
religiousallegiancebutwereincreasinglyindividualisticintermsofpsychologyandbehavior("IrespectthePope,butIhave
tofollowmyownconscience").Tiestothecountriesofemigrationsteadilyweakened,andthetendencytomarryoutside
thegroupstrengthened.

Outwardly,mostimmigrantgroupscompletedanapparentassimilationtoAmericanmaterialculturewithinacoupleof
generationsoftheirarrival.Asecondtypeofassimilationaninwardassimilationtoandadaptationofthecoreculturaland
psychologicalstructureofthenativepopulationtooklonger,butasthird,fourthandfifth-generationimmigrantfamilies
wereexposedtotheeconomicandsocialrealitiesofAmericanlife,theywereincreasingly"americanized"ontheinsideas
wellaswithout.

Thisimmenseandcomplexprocesswasacceleratedbysocialchangesthattookplaceafter1945.Physically,theold
neighborhoodsbrokeup,andtheNorthernindustrialworkingclass,alongwiththerefugeesfromthedyingAmericanfamily
farm,movedintothesuburbstoformanewpopulistmix.Asincreasingnumbersofthedescendantsofimmigrantsmoved
intotheJacksonianSunbelt,thepaceofassimilationgrew.Thesuburbanhomeownerwithhisorherfederallysubsidized
mortgagereplacedthehomesteadingfarmer(onfreefederalland)asthecentralpillarofAmericanpopulism.RichardNixon,
withhistwo-prongedappealtowhiteSouthernersandthe"JoeSix-pack"votersoftheNorth,wasthefirstnational
politiciantorecognizethepowerofthisnewlyenergizedcurrentinAmericanlife.

Urban,immigrantAmericamayhavesoftenedsomeoftheroughedgesofJacksonianAmerica,butthedescendantsofthe
greatwaveofEuropeanimmigrationsoundmorelikeAndrewJacksonfromdecadetodecade.Ruggedfrontier
individualismhasproventobecontagiouseachsuccessivegenerationhasbeenmoreJacksonianthanitspredecessor.The
socialandeconomicsolidarityrootedinEuropeanpeasantcommunitieshasbeenovermasteredbytheindividualismofthe
frontier.ThedescendantsofEuropeanworking-classMarxistsnowquoteAdamSmithJoeSix-packthinksofthewelfare
stateasanexpensiveburden,notpartofthenaturalmoralorder.Intellectualshavemadethistransitionasthoroughlyas
anyoneelse.ThechildrenandgrandchildrenoftradeunionistsandTrotskyitesnowtalkabouttheimportanceofliberal
societyandfreemarketsintheintellectualpilgrimageofIrvingKristol,whatisusuallyamultigenerationalprocesshasbeen
compressedintoasingle,brilliantcareer.

ThenewJacksonianismisnolongerruralandexclusivelynativist.FrontierJacksonianismmayhavetakenthehomesteading
farmerandthelogcabinasitsemblems,buttodaysCrabgrassJacksonianismseesthehomeowneronhismodestsuburban
lawnastheherooftheAmericanstory.TheCrabgrassJacksonianmayweargreenonSt.PatricksDayheorshemight
gotoaCatholicChurchandneverlistentocountrymusic(though,increasingly,heorsheprobablydoes)butthe
CrabgrassJacksoniandoesntjustbelieve,sheknowsthatsheisasgoodanAmericanasanybodyelse,thatsheisentitled
toherrightsfromChurchandState,thatshepullsherownweightandexpectsotherstodothesame.Thathomeownerwill
beheardfrom:RonaldReaganowedmuchofhispopularityandsuccesstohisabilitytoconnectwithJacksonianvalues.
RossPerotandPatBuchananindifferentwayshavemanagedtotapintothepowerofthepopulistenergythatOldHickory
rodeintotheWhiteHouse.Inbothdomesticandforeignpolicy,thetwenty-firstcenturywillbeprofoundlyinfluencedby
thevaluesandconcernsofJacksonianAmerica.

TheJacksonianCode

TounderstandhowCrabgrassJacksonianismisshapingandwillcontinuetoshapeAmericanforeignpolicy,wemustbegin
withanotherunfashionableconcept:Honor.AlthoughfewAmericanstodayusethisanachronisticword,honorremainsa
corevaluefortensofmillionsofmiddle-classAmericans,womenaswellasmen.Theunacknowledgedcodeofhonorthat
shapessomuchofAmericanbehaviorandaspirationtodayisarecognizabledescendentofthefrontiercodesofhonorof
earlyJacksonianAmerica.TheappealofthiscodeisoneofthereasonsthatJacksonianvalueshavespreadtosomany
peopleoutsidetheoriginalethnicandsocialnexusinwhichJacksonianAmericawasformed.

Thefirstprincipleofthiscodeisself-reliance.RealAmericans,manyAmericansfeel,arepeoplewhomaketheirownway
intheworld.Theymaygetahelpinghandfromfriendsandfamily,buttheyholdtheirplacesintheworldthroughhonest
work.Theydontslidebyonwelfare,andtheydontrelyoninheritedwealthorconnections.Thosewhowontworkand
arethereforepoor,orthosewhodontneedtoworkduetofamilymoney,areviewedwithsuspicion.Thosewhomeetthe
economicandmoraltestsbelongtothebroadMiddleClass,thefolkcommunityofworkingpeoplethatJacksoniansbelieve
tobetheheart,soulandspineoftheAmericannation.Earningandkeepingaplaceinthiscommunityonthebasisofhonest
workisthefirstprincipleofJacksonianhonor,anditremainsaseriousinsulteventoimplythatamemberoftheAmerican
middleclassisnotpullinghisorherweightintheworld.

Jacksonianhonormustbeacknowledgedbytheoutsideworld.Oneisentitledto,anddemands,theappropriaterespect:
recognitionofrightsandjustclaims,acknowledgmentofonespersonaldignity.ManyAmericanswillstillfight,sometimes
withweapons,whentheyfeeltheyhavenotbeentreatedwiththeproperrespect.Butevenamongthelessviolent,
Americansstandontheirdignityandrights.Respectisalsodueage.ThosewhoknowJacksonianAmericaonlythroughits
veryinexactrepresentationsinthemediathinkoftheUnitedStatesasayouth-obsessed,age-neglectingsociety.Infact,
JacksonianAmericahonorsage.AndrewJacksonwassixty-onewhenhewaselectedpresidentforthefirsttimeRonald
Reaganwasseventy.Mostmoviestarslosetheirappealwithagethosewhoseappealstemsfromtheirabilitytoportrayand
embodyJacksonianvalueslikeJohnWayneonlybecomemorerevered.

Thesecondprincipleofthecodeisequality.Amongthosemembersofthefolkcommunitywhodopulltheirweight,there
isanabsoluteequalityofdignityandright.Noonehasarighttotelltheself-reliantJacksonianwhattosay,doorthink.Any
infringementonequalitywillbemetwithdefianceandresistance.Maleorfemale,theJacksonianis,andinsistson
remaining,independentofchurch,state,socialhierarchy,politicalpartiesandlaborunions.Jacksoniansmaychooseto
accepttheauthorityofaleaderormovementorfaith,butwillneveryieldtoanimposedauthority.Theyoungare
independentoftheold:"free,whiteandtwenty-one"isanoldJacksonianexpressionthecolorlinehassoftened,but
otherwisethesentimentisastrueasiteverwas.

Mrs.FannyTrollope(motherofnovelistAnthonyTrollope)hadthemisfortunetoleavehernativeBritaintospendtwoyears
intheUnitedStates.NexttoherrevulsionatthetwinAmericanhabitsofchewingtobaccoinpublicplacesandmissing
spittoonswiththefinishedproduct,shemostdespisedthepassionforequalityshefoundeverywhereshelooked."The
theoryofequality",Mrs.Trollopeobserved,

maybeverydaintilydiscussedbyEnglishgentlemeninaLondondining-room,whentheservant,havingplacedafresh
bottleofcoolwineonthetable,respectfullyshutsthedoor,andleavesthemtotheirwalnutsandtheirwisdombutitwillbe
foundlesspalatablewhenitpresentsitselfintheshapeofahard,greasypaw,andisclaimedinaccentsthatbreathelessof
freedomthanofonionsandwhiskey.Strong,indeed,mustbetheloveofequalityinanEnglishbreastifitcansurviveatour
throughtheUnion.

Thethirdprincipleisindividualism.TheJacksoniandoesnotjusthavetherighttoself-fulfillmentheorshehasadutyto
seekit.InJacksonianAmerica,everyonemustfindhisorherway:eachindividualmustchooseafaith,ornofaith,and
codeofconductbasedonconscienceandreason.TheJacksonianfeelsperfectlyfreetostrikeoffinanentirelynew
religiousdirection."Isincerelybelieve",wrotepoorMrs.Trollope,"thatifafire-worshiper,oranIndianBrahmin,wereto
cometotheUnitedStates,preparedtopreachandprayinEnglish,hewouldnotbelongwithoutaveryrespectable
congregation."Shedidntknowthehalfofit.

Despitethisindividualism,theJacksoniancodealsomandatesacceptanceofcertainsocialmoresandprinciples.Loyaltyto
family,raisingchildren"right",sexualdecency(heterosexualmonogamywhichcanbeserial)andhonestywithinthe
communityarevirtuesthatcommendthemselvestotheJacksonianspirit.Childrenofbothsexescanbewild,butboth
womenandmenmustbestrong.CorporalpunishmentiscustomaryandcommonJacksoniansfindobjectionstothistime-
honoredand(theyfeel)effectivemethodofdisciplineoutlandishandabsurd.Althoughwomenshouldbemorediscreet,
bothsexescansowwildoatsbeforemarriage.Afterit,toenjoytheesteemoftheircommunityacouplemustbeseentoput
theirchildrenswelfareaheadofpersonalgratification.
ThefourthpillarintheJacksonianhonorcodestruckMrs.Trollopeandothersasmoredishonorablethanhonorable,yetit
persistsnevertheless.Letuscallitfinancialesprit.WhiletheJacksonianbelievesinhardwork,heorshealsobelievesthat
creditisarightandthatmoney,especiallyborrowedmoney,islessasacredtrustthanameansforself-discoveryand
expression.AlthoughpreviousgenerationslackedthefacultiesforconsumercreditthatAmericansenjoyattheendofthe
twentiethcentury,manyAmericanshavealwaysassumedthattheyhavearighttospendmoneyontheirappearance,on
purchasesthataffirmtheirstatus.ThestrictJacksoniancodeofhonordoesnotenjoinwhatothersseeasfinancialprobity.
Whatitdemands,rather,isadaringandentrepreneurialspirit.Creditisseenlessasanobligationthanasanopportunity.
Jacksonianshavealwayssupportedloosemonetarypolicyandlooserbankruptcylaws.

Finally,courageisthecrowningandindispensablepartofthecode.Jacksoniansmustbereadytodefendtheirhonorin
greatthingsandsmall.Americansoughttostickupforwhattheybelieve.Inthenineteenthcentury,JacksonianAmericans
foughtduelslongafteraristocratsinEuropehadgiventhemup,andAmericanstodayremainfarmorelikelythanEuropeans
tosettlepersonalquarrelswithextremeandevendeadlyviolence.

JacksonianAmericasloveaffairwithweaponsis,ofcourse,thedespairoftherestofthecountry.Jacksonianculture
valuesfirearms,andthefreedomtoownandusethem.Therighttobeararmsisamarkofcivicandsocialequality,and
knowinghowtocareforfirearmsisanimportantpartoflife.Jacksoniansarearmedfordefense:ofthehomeandperson
againstrobbersagainstusurpationsofthefederalgovernmentandoftheUnitedStatesagainstitsenemies.Inonewarafter
another,Jacksonianshaveflockedtothecolors.Independentanddifficulttodiscipline,theyhaveneverthelessdemonstrated
magnificentfightingqualitiesineverycorneroftheworld.JacksonianAmericaviewsmilitaryserviceasasacredduty.
WhenHamiltonians,WilsoniansandJeffersoniansdodgedthedraftinVietnamorpurchasedexemptionsandsubstitutesin
earlierwars,Jacksonianssoldieredon,ifsometimesbitterlyandresentfully.Anhonorablepersonisreadytokillortodiefor
familyandflag.

Jacksoniansocietydrawsanimportantdistinctionbetweenthosewhobelongtothefolkcommunityandthosewhodonot.
Withinthatcommunity,amongthoseboundbythecodeandcapableofdischargingtheirresponsibilitiesunderit,
Jacksoniansareunitedinasocialcompact.Outsidethatcompactischaosanddarkness.Thecriminalwhocommitswhat,
intheJacksoniancode,constituteunforgivablesins(cold-bloodedmurder,rape,themurderorsexualabuseofachild,
murderorattemptedmurderofapeaceofficer)canjustlybekilledbythevictimsfamilies,colleaguesorbysocietyatlarge
withorwithouttheformalitiesoflaw.InmanypartsoftheUnitedStates,jurieswillnotconvictpoliceonalmostany
charge,norwilltheycondemnrevengekillersinparticularlyoutrageouscases.Therightofthecitizentodefendfamilyand
propertywithdeadlyforceisasacredoneaswell,alegacyfromcolonialandfrontiertimes.

Theabsoluteandevenbrutaldistinctiondrawnbetweenthemembersofthecommunityandoutsidershashadmassive
implicationsinAmericanlife.ThroughoutmostofAmericanhistorytheJacksoniancommunitywasonefromwhichmany
Americanswereautomaticallyandabsolutelyexcluded:Indians,Mexicans,Asians,AfricanAmericans,obvioussexual
deviantsandrecentimmigrantsofnon-Protestantheritagehaveallfeltthesting.Historically,thelawhasbeenhelplessto
protectsuchpeopleagainsteconomicoppression,socialdiscriminationandmobviolence,includingwidespreadlynchings.
Legislatorswouldnotenactlaws,andiftheydid,sheriffswouldnotarrest,prosecutorswouldnottry,jurieswouldnot
convict.

Thistellsussomethingveryimportant:throughoutmostofAmericanhistoryandtoalargeextenteventoday,equalrights
emergefromanddependonthispopularcultureofequalityandhonorratherthanflowoutofabstractprinciplesorwritten
documents.Themanysocialandlegaldisabilitiesstillsufferedinpracticebyunpopularminoritiesdemonstratethatthe
courtsandthestatutebooksstillenjoyonlyalimitedabilitytoprotectequalrightsintheteethofpopularfeelingandculture.

Evenso,JacksonianvaluesplayamajorroleinAfrican-Americanculture.Ifanything,thatrolehasincreasedwiththe
expandedpresenceofAfricanAmericansinallmilitaryranks.Theoftenblightedsociallandscapeoftheinnercityhasin
somecasesre-createdtheatmosphereandpracticesofAmericanfrontierlife.Inmanywaysthegangcultureofsomeinner
citiesresemblesthesocialatmosphereoftheJacksonianSouth,aswellastheharddrinking,womanizing,violentmale
cultureoftheMississippiinthedaysofDavyCrockettandMarkTwain.Braggingaboutonesphysicalandsexualprowess,
thewillingnesstoavengedisrespectwithdeadlyforce,atouchyinsistencethatoneisasgoodasanybodyelse:onceover
hisshockattheurbanlandscapeandtheracialissue,BillytheKidwouldfindhimselfsurprisinglyathomeinsuchan
environment.

ThedegreetowhichAfrican-AmericansocietyresemblesJacksoniancultureremainsoneofthecrucialandlargely
overlookedelementsinAmericanlife.Despitehistoricalexperiencesthatwouldhavecompletelyalienatedmanyethnic
minoritiesaroundtheworld,Americanblackpopularcultureremainsprofoundlyand,intimesofdanger,fiercely
patriotic.FromtheRevolutiononward,AfricanAmericanshavesoughtmoretoparticipateinAmericaswarsthanto
abstainfromthem,andthestrengthofpersonalandmilitaryhonorcodesinAfrican-Americanculturetodayremainsa
criticalfactorinassuringthecontinuedstrengthofAmericanmilitaryforcesintothetwenty-firstcentury.

TheunderlyingculturalunitybetweenAfricanAmericansandAnglo-JacksonianAmericashapedthecourseandensuredthe
successofthemoderncivilrightsmovement.MartinLutherKingandhisfollowersexhibitedexemplarypersonalcourage,
theirrhetoricwasdeeplyrootedinProtestantChristianity,andtherightstheyaskedforwerepreciselythosethatJacksonian
Americavaluesmostforitself.Further,theyscrupulouslyavoidedtheviolenttacticsthatwouldhavetriggeredan
unstoppableJacksonianresponse.
Althoughcultureschangeslowlyandmanyindividualslagbehind,thebulkofAmericanJacksonianopinionhasincreasingly
movedtorecognizetherightofcode-honoringmembersofminoritygroupstoreceivetherightsandprotectionsdueto
membersofthefolkcommunity.Thisnewand,onehopes,growingfeelingofrespectandtoleranceemphaticallydoesnot
extendtothose,minoritiesornot,whoarenotseenascode-honoringAmericans.Thosewhoviolateorrejectthecode
criminals,irresponsibleparents,drugaddictshavenotbenefitedfromthesofteningoftheJacksoniancolorline.

ThePoliticsoftheCulture

JacksonianforeignpolicyisrelatedtoJacksonianvaluesandgoalsindomesticpolicy.ForJacksonians,theprimegoalof
theAmericanpeopleisnotthecommercialandindustrialpolicysoughtbyHamiltonians,northeadministrativeexcellencein
supportofmoralvaluesthatWilsoniansseek,norJeffersonianliberty.Jacksoniansbelievethatthegovernmentshoulddo
everythinginitspowertopromotethewell-beingpolitical,moral,economicofthefolkcommunity.Anymeansare
permissibleintheserviceofthisend,aslongastheydonotviolatethemoralfeelingsorinfringeonthefreedomsthat
Jacksoniansbelieveareessentialintheirdailylives.

Jacksoniansareinstinctivelydemocraticandpopulist.HamiltoniansmistrustdemocracyWilsoniansdontapproveofthe
politicalroughandtumble.AndwhileJeffersonianssupportdemocracyinprinciple,theyremainconcernedthattyrannical
majoritiescanoverruleminorityrights.JacksoniansbelievethatthepoliticalandmoralinstinctsoftheAmericanpeopleare
soundandcanbetrusted,andthatthesimplerandmoredirecttheprocessofgovernmentis,thebetterwillbetheresults.
Ingeneral,whiletheotherschoolswelcometherepresentativecharacterofourdemocracy,Jacksonianstendtosee
representativeratherthandirectinstitutionsasnecessaryevils,andtobelievethatgovernmentsbreedcorruptionand
inefficiencythewaypicnicsbreedants.EveryadministrationwillbecorrupteveryCongressandlegislaturewillbe,to
someextent,theplaythingoflobbyists.Careerpoliticiansareinherentlyuntrustworthyifitspendsitslifebuzzingaround
theouthouse,itsprobablyafly.Jacksoniansseecorruptionashumannatureand,withincertainill-definedboundariesof
reasonandmoderation,aninevitableby-productofgovernment.

ItisperversionratherthancorruptionthatmosttroublesJacksonians:thepossibilitythatthepowersofgovernmentwillbe
turnedfromthenaturalandproperobjectofsupportingthewell-beingofthemajoritytowardoppressingthemajorityinthe
serviceofaneconomicorculturaleliteor,worsestill,intheinterestsofpowerfulforeigners.Insteadoftrying,however
ineptly,toservethepeople,havethepoliticiansturnedthegovernmentagainstthepeople?Aretheyservinglarge
commercialinterestswithmaliciousdesignsonthecommongood?Aretheyeitherbyineptitudeorwickednessserving
hostileforeigninterestsgivingallourindustrialmarketstotheJapanese,orallowingcommuniststostealoursecretsand
handthemtotheChinese?Aretheyfecklesslyfritteringawayhugesumsofmoneyonworthlessforeignaidprogramsthat
transferbillionstocorruptforeigndictators?

Jacksonianstolerateacertainamountofgovernmentperversion,butwhenitbecomesunbearable,theylooktoapopular
herotorestoregovernmenttoitsproperfunctions.ItwasinthiscapacitythatAndrewJacksonwaselectedtothe
presidency,andtherolehassincebeenreprisedbyanynumberofpoliticiansonboththelocalandthenationalstages.
RecentdecadeshaveseenRonaldReaganmastertherole,andGeorgeWallace,RossPerot,JesseVenturaandPatBuchanan
auditioningforit.TheJacksonianherodarestosaywhatthepeoplefeelanddefiestheentrenchedelites."Iwelcometheir
hatred",saidthearistocraticFranklinRoosevelt,inhisroleoftribuneofthepeople.Theheromaymakemistakes,buthe
willcommandtheunswervingloyaltyofJacksonianAmericasolongashisheartisperceivedtobeintherightplace.

WhenitcomestoBigGovernment,Jeffersoniansworrymoreaboutthemilitarythanaboutanythingelse.Butfor
Jacksonians,spendingmoneyonthemilitaryisoneofthebestthingsgovernmentcando.Yes,thePentagonisinefficient
andcontractorsarestealingthegovernmentblind.ButbydefinitiontheworkthattheDefenseDepartmentdoesdefending
thenationisaservicetotheJacksonianmiddleclass.Yes,thePentagonshouldspenditsmoneymorecarefully,butletus
notthrowthebabyoutwiththebathwater.Storiesaboutwelfareabusersinlimousinesandforeignaidswindlesgenerate
moreangeramongJacksoniansthandostoriesof$600hammersatthePentagon.

Theprofoundlypopulistworld-viewofJacksonianAmericanscontributestooneofthemostimportantelementsintheir
politics:thebeliefthatwhileproblemsarecomplicated,solutionsaresimple.FalseidolsaremanytheTrueGodisOne.
JacksoniansbelievethatGordianKnotsaretheretobecut.Inpubliccontroversies,thesidethatisalwaysgivingyou
reasonswhysomethingcantbedone,andisendlesslytellingyouthatthepopularviewisntsufficiently"sophisticated"or
"nuanced"thatisthesidethatdoesntwantyoutoknowwhatitisdoing,anditisnottobetrusted.Ifpoliticianshave
honestintentions,theywilltellyoustraightupwhattheyplantodo.Ifitsagoodidea,youwilllikeitassoonasthey
explainthewholepackage.Formostoftheotherschools,"complex"isapositivetermwhenappliedeithertopoliciesorto
situationsforJacksoniansitisanegative.RonaldReaganbrilliantlyexploitedthis.AsinthecaseofAndrewJackson
himself,ReagansownintuitiveapproachtotheworldledhimtobeliefsandpoliciesthatappealedtoJacksonianopinion
rightfromthestart.

Instinct,NotIdeology

ThosewholiketocastAmericanforeignpolicyasanunhealthymixofignorance,isolationismandtrigger-happycowboy
diplomacyareoftenthinkingabouttheJacksonianpopulisttradition.Thattraditionisstrongeramongthemassofordinary
peoplethanitisamongtheelite.Itismorestronglyentrenchedintheheartlandthanoneitherofthetwocoasts.Ithasbeen
historicallyassociatedwithwhiteProtestantmalesofthelowerandmiddleclassestodaytheleastfashionableelementin
theAmericanpoliticalmix.

AlthoughtherearemanylearnedandthoughtfulJacksonians,includingthosewhohavemadedistinguishedcareersinpublic
service,itiscertainlytruethattheJacksonianphilosophyisembracedbymanypeoplewhoknowverylittleaboutthewider
world.Withthemitisaninstinctratherthananideologyaculturallyshapedsetofbeliefsandemotionsratherthanasetof
ideas.ButideasandpolicyproposalsthatresonatewithJacksoniancorevaluesandinstinctsenjoywidesupportandcan
usuallyfindinfluentialsupportersinthepolicyprocess.

SoinfluentialisJacksonianopinionintheformationofAmericanforeignpolicythatanyonelackingafeelforitwillfind
muchofAmericanforeignpolicybafflingandopaque.Foreignersinparticularhavealternatelyoverestimatedand
underestimatedAmericandeterminationbecausetheyfailedtograspthestructureofJacksonianopinionandinfluence.Yet
Jacksonianviewsonforeignaffairsarerelativelystraightforward,andoncetheyareunderstood,Americanforeignpolicy
becomesmuchlessmysterious.

Tobeginwith,althoughtheotherschoolsoftencongratulatethemselvesontheirsuperiorsophisticationandappreciationfor
complexity,JacksonianismprovidesthebasisinAmericanlifeforwhatmanyscholarsandpractitionerswouldconsiderthe
mostsophisticatedofallapproachestoforeignaffairs:realism.InthisitstandswithJeffersonianism,whilebeingdeeply
suspiciousofthe"globalmeliorist"elementsfound,indifferentforms,inbothWilsonianandHamiltonianforeignpolicy
ideas.Often,JeffersoniansandJacksonianswillstandtogetherinoppositiontohumanitarianinterventions,orinterventions
madeinsupportofWilsonianorHamiltonianworldorderinitiatives.However,whileJeffersoniansespouseaminimalist
realismunderwhichtheUnitedStatesseekstodefineitsinterestsasnarrowlyaspossibleandtodefendthoseinterestswith
anabsoluteminimumofforce,Jacksoniansapproachforeignpolicyinaverydifferentspiritoneinwhichhonor,concern
forreputation,andfaithinmilitaryinstitutionsplayamuchgreaterrole.

Jacksonianrealismisbasedontheverysharpdistinctioninpopularfeelingbetweentheinsideofthefolkcommunityand
thedarkworldwithout.Jacksonianpatriotismisnotadoctrinebutanemotion,likeloveofonesfamily.Thenationisan
extensionofthefamily.MembersoftheAmericanfolkareboundtogetherbyhistory,cultureandacommonmorality.Ata
verybasiclevel,afeelingofkinshipexistsamongAmericans:wehaveonesetofrulesfordealingwitheachotheranda
verydifferentsetfortheoutsideworld.UnlikeWilsonians,whohopeultimatelytoconverttheHobbesianworldof
internationalrelationsintoaLockeanpoliticalcommunity,Jacksoniansbelievethatitisnaturalandinevitablethatnational
politicsandnationallifewillworkondifferentprinciplesfrominternationalaffairs.ForJacksonians,theworldcommunity
Wilsonianswanttobuildisnotmerelyamoralimpossibilitybutamonstrosity.AnAmericanforeignpolicythat,for
example,takestaxmoneyfrommiddle-classAmericanstogivetoacorruptandincompetentdictatorshipoverseasis
nonsenseithurtsAmericansanddoeslittleforBorrioboola-Gha.Countries,likefamilies,shouldtakecareoftheirownif
everybodydidthatwewouldallbebetteroff.Charity,meanwhile,shouldbelefttoprivateinitiativesandprivatefunds
JacksonianAmericaisnotungenerousbutitlacksallconfidenceinthegovernmentsabilitytoadministercharity,eitherat
homeorabroad.

Giventhemoralgapbetweenthefolkcommunityandtherestoftheworldandgiventhatothercountriesarebelievedto
havepatrioticandcommunalfeelingsoftheirown,feelingsthatsimilarlyhardenoncetheboundaryofthefolkcommunity
isreachedJacksoniansbelievethatinternationallifeisandwillremainbothanarchicandviolent.TheUnitedStatesmust
bevigilantandstronglyarmed.Ourdiplomacymustbecunning,forcefulandnomorescrupulousthananybodyelses.At
times,wemustfightpre-emptivewars.Thereisabsolutelynothingwrongwithsubvertingforeigngovernmentsor
assassinatingforeignleaderswhosebadintentionsareclear.Thus,Jacksoniansaremorelikelytotaxpoliticalleaderswitha
failuretoemployvigorousmeasuresthantoworryaboutthenicetiesofinternationallaw.

Indeed,ofallthemajorcurrentsinAmericansociety,Jacksonianshavetheleastregardforinternationallawand
internationalinstitutions.Theyprefertheruleofcustomtothewrittenlaw,andthatisastrueintheinternationalsphereasit
isinpersonalrelationsathome.Jacksoniansbelievethatthereisanhonorcodeininternationallifeastherewasinclan
warfareintheborderlandsofEnglandandthosewholivebythecodewillbetreatedunderit.Butthosewhoviolatethe
codewhocommitterroristactsinpeacetime,forexampleforfeititsprotectionanddeservenoconsideration.

ManystudentsofAmericanforeignpolicy,bothhereandabroad,dismissJacksoniansasignorantisolationistsandvulgar
patriots,but,again,therealityismorecomplex,andtheirapproachtotheworldandtowarismorecloselygroundedin
classicalrealismthanmanyrecognize.JacksoniansdonotbelievethattheUnitedStatesmusthaveanunambiguouslymoral
reasonforfighting.Infact,theytendtoseparatetheissuesofmoralityandwarmoreclearlythanmanymembersofthe
foreignpolicyestablishment.

TheGulfWarwasapopularwarinJacksoniancirclesbecausethedefenseofthenationsoilsupplystruckachordwith
Jacksonianopinion.Thatopinionwhichhasnotforgottentheoilshortagesandpricehikesofthe1970sclearly
considersstabilityoftheoilsupplyavitalnationalinterestandispreparedtofighttodefendit.Theatrocitypropaganda
aboutallegedIraqibarbarismsinKuwaitdidnotinspireJacksonianstowar,andneitherdidlegalisticargumentsaboutU.S.
obligationsundertheUNChartertodefendamemberstatefromaggression.Thoseareusefulargumentstoscrew
Wilsoniancouragetothestickingplace,buttheymeanlittleforJacksonians.HadtherebeennoUNCharterandhadKuwait
beenevenmorecorruptandrepressivethatitis,JacksonianopinionwouldstillhavesupportedtheGulfWar.Itwouldhave
supportedafull-scalewarwithIranoverthe1980hostagecrisis,anditwilltakeanequallyhawkishstancetowardany
futurethreattoperceivedU.S.interestsinthePersianGulfregion.

Intheabsenceofaclearlydefinedthreattothenationalinterest,Jacksonianopinionismuchlessaggressive.Ithasnot,for
example,beenenthusiasticabouttheU.S.interventioninthecaseofBosnia.Theretheevidenceofunspeakableatrocities
wasmuchgreaterthaninKuwait,andthelegalcaseforinterventionwasasstrong.YetJacksonianopinionsawnothreatto
theinterests,asitunderstoodthem,oftheUnitedStates,andWilsoniansweretheonlysegmentofthepopulationthatwas
activelyeagerforwar.

InWorldWarIittooktheZimmermannTelegramandtherepeatedsinkingofAmericanshipstoconvinceJacksonian
opinionthatwarwasnecessary.InWorldWarII,neithertheRapeofNankingnortheatrocitiesofNaziruleinEuropedrew
theUnitedStatesintothewar.TheattackonPearlHarbordid.

ToengageJacksoniansinsupportoftheColdWaritwasnecessarytoconvincethemthatMoscowwasengagedinafar-
reachingandsystematiccampaignforworlddomination,andthatthiscampaignwouldsucceedunlesstheUnitedStates
engagedinalong-termdefensiveeffortwiththehelpofalliesaroundtheworld.Thatinvolvedacertainoverstatementof
bothSovietintentionsandcapabilities,butthatisbesidethepresentpoint.OnceJacksonianopinionwasconvincedthatthe
SovietthreatwasrealandthattheColdWarwasnecessary,itstayedconvinced.PopulistAmericanopinionacceptedthe
burdensitimposedandworriedonlythatthegovernmentwouldfailtoprosecutetheColdWarwiththenecessaryvigor.No
oneshouldmistaketheimportanceofthisstrongandconstantsupport.Despitethefrequentcomplaintsbycommentators
andpolicymakersthattheAmericanpeopleare"isolationist"and"uninterestedinforeignaffairs",theyhavemadeandwill
makeenormousfinancialandpersonalsacrificesifconvincedthattheseareinthenationsvitalinterests.

Thismasspopularpatriotism,andthemartialspiritbehindit,givestheUnitedStatesimmenseadvantagesininternational
affairs.Aftertwoworldwars,noEuropeannationhasshownthesamewillingnesstopaythepriceinbloodandtreasure
foraglobalpresence.Mostofthe"developed"nationsfinditdifficulttomaintainlarge,high-qualityfightingforces.Notall
ofthemartialpatriotismintheUnitedStatescomesoutoftheworldofJacksonianpopulism,butwithoutthattradition,the
UnitedStateswouldbehardpressedtomaintainthekindofinternationalmilitarypresenceitnowhas.

Pessimism

WhileinmanyrespectsJacksonianAmericanshaveanoptimisticoutlook,thereisalargeandimportantsenseinwhichthey
arepessimistic.WhateverthetheologicalviewsofindividualJacksoniansmaybe,JacksonianculturebelievesinOriginalSin
anddoesnotaccepttheEnlightenmentsbeliefintheperfectibilityofhumannature.Asacorollary,Jacksoniansarepre-
millennialist:theydonotbelievethatutopiaisjustaroundthecorner.Infact,theytendtobelievethereversetheanti-
ChristwillgetherebeforeJesusdoes,andhumanhistorywillendincatastropheandflames,followedbytheDayof
Judgment.

Thisisnoidletheologicalconcept.Beliefintheapproachofthe"EndTimes"andthe"GreatTribulation"conceptsrooted
incertaininterpretationsofJewishandChristianprophetictextshasbeenapowerfulforceinAmericanlifefromcolonial
times.JacksoniansbelievethatneitherWilsoniansnorHamiltoniansnoranybodyelsewilleversucceedinbuildingapeaceful
worldorder,andthattheonlyworldorderwearelikelytogetwillbeabadone.Nomatterhowmuchmoneyweship
overseas,andnomatterhowcleverlythedevelopmentbureaucratsspendit,itwillnotcreatepeaceonearth.Plansfor
universaldisarmamentandworldcourtsofjusticefounderonthesamerockofhistoricalskepticism.Jacksoniansjusttend
nottobelievethatanyofthesethingswilldomuchgood.

Infact,theythinktheymaydoharm.Linkedtotheskepticismaboutman-madeimitationsoftheKingdomofGodisadeep
apprehensionabouttheriseofanevilworldorder.Intheologicalterms,thisisareferencetothefearoftheanti-Christ,
who,manycommentatorsaffirm,ispredictedinScripturetocomewiththeappearanceofanangeloflightacharismatic
politicalfigurewhoofferswhatlookslikeaplanforworldpeaceandorder,butwhichisactuallyaSatanicsnareintendedto
deceive.

Formostofitshistory,JacksonianAmericabelievedthattheRomanCatholicChurchwasthechiefemissaryofSatanon
earth,abeliefthathadaccompaniedthefirstAmericansontheirjourneyfromBritain.FearofCatholicismgradually
subsided,butduringtheColdWartheKremlinreplacedtheVaticanasthecenterforAmericanpopularfearsaboutthe
forcesofevilintheworld.TheinternationalcommunistconspiracycapturedtheoldstockAmericanpopularimagination
becauseitfitculturaltemplatesestablishedinthedaysoftheLongParliamentandtheEnglishCivilWar.Descendantsof
immigrantsfromEasternEuropehadtheirownculturaldispositionstowardconspiracythinking,plus,inmanycases,a
deephatredandfearofRussia.

Thefearofaruthless,formidableenemyabroadwhoenjoysapowerfulfifthcolumnintheUnitedStatesincludinghigh-
rankingofficialswhoserveiteitherforgreedoroutofmisguidedideologicalzealisolderthantheRepublic.Duringthe
ColdWar,this"paranoidtradition"inAmericanlifestayedmostlyfocusedontheKremlinthoughorganizationslikethe
JohnBirchSocietysawominouslinksbetweentheKremlinandtheAmericanEstablishment.Theparanoidstreakwas,if
anything,helpfulinsustainingpopularsupportforColdWarstrategy.AftertheColdWar,itisprovingmoredifficultto
integrateintoeffectiveAmericanpolicy.Tosomedegree,thechiefobjectofpopularconcerninpost-ColdWarAmericais
theHamiltoniandreamofafullyintegratedglobaleconomy,combinedwiththeWilsoniandreamofglobalpoliticalorderthat
endsthenightmareofwarringnation-states.GeorgeBushscallfora"NewWorldOrder"hadadistinctlyOrwellian
connotationtotheJacksonianear.ChristianCoalitionfounderPatRobertson,inhisbookTheNewWorldOrder(1991),
tracesthecallforthatOrdertoaSatanicconspiracyconsciouslyimplementedbythepillarsoftheAmericanEstablishment.

ThefearthattheEstablishment,linkedtoitscounterpartinBritainand,throughBritain,toallthecorruptmovementsand
elitesoftheOldWorld,isrelentlesslyplottingtodestroyAmericanlibertyisanoldbutstillpotentone.TheTrilateral
Commission,theCouncilonForeignRelations,theBilderbergers,theBavarianIlluminati,theRothschilds,theRockefellers:
thesenamesandothersechothroughalargeandshadowyworldofconspiracytheoriesandclassresentment.Should
seriouslybadeconomictimescome,thereisalwaysthepotentialthat,witheffectiveleadership,theparanoidelementinthe
Jacksonianworldcouldridepopularangerandpanicintopower.

Honor

AnotheraspectofJacksonianforeignpolicyistheaforementioneddeepsenseofnationalhonorandacorrespondingneedto
liveuptoinactualityandintheeyesofothersthedemandsofanhonorcode.Thepoliticalimportanceofthiscode
shouldnotbeunderestimatedAmericansarecapableofgoingtowaroverissuesofnationalhonor.TheWarof1812isan
exampleofJacksoniansentimentforcingawaroutofresentmentovercontinualnationalhumiliationsatthehandofBritain.
(ThosewhosuffereddirectlyfromBritishinterferencewithAmericanshipping,themerchants,weretotallyagainstthe
war.)Attheendofthetwentiethcentury,itisnationalhonor,morethananyvitalstrategicinterest,thatwouldrequirethe
UnitedStatestofulfillitspromisestoprotectTaiwanfrominvasion.

TheperceptionofnationalhonorasavitalinteresthasalwaysbeenawedgeissuedrivingJacksoniansandJeffersonians
apart.TheJeffersonianpeacepolicyintheNapoleonicWarsbecameimpossibleastheWarHawksgrewstronger.Thesame
patternrecurredintheCarteradministration,duringwhichgatheringJacksonianfuryandimpatienceatCarters
JeffersonianapproachestotheSovietUnion,Panama,IranandNicaraguaignitedareactionthatforcedthePresidentto
reversehisbasicpolicyorientationandendedbydrivinghimfromoffice.WhatJeffersoniandiplomacywelcomesas
measurestoheadoffwaroftenlooktoJacksonianslikepusillanimousweakness.

OncetheUnitedStatesextendsasecurityguaranteeormakesapromise,wearerequiredtohonorthatpromisecomewhat
may.Jacksonianopinion,whichinthenatureofthingshadlittlefaiththatSouthVietnamcouldbuilddemocracyorthat
therewasanythingconcretethereofinteresttotheaverageAmerican,wassteadfastinsupportofthewarthoughnotof
thestrategybecausewehadgivenourwordtodefendSouthVietnam.DuringthisyearswarinKosovo,Jacksonian
opinionwasresolutelyagainstittobeginwith.However,onceU.S.honorwasengaged,Jacksoniansbegantourgea
strongerwarfightingstrategyincludingtheuseofgroundtroops.Itisabadthingtofightanunnecessarywar,butitis
inexcusableanddishonorabletoloseoneonceithasbegun.

ReputationisasimportantininternationallifeasitistotheindividualhonorofJacksonians.HonorintheJacksonian
imaginationisnotsimplywhatonefeelsoneselftobeontheinsideitisalsoaquestionoftherespectanddignityone
commandsintheworldatlarge.Jacksonianopinionissympathetictotheideathatourreputationwhetherforfairdealing
orcheating,toughnessorweaknesswillshapethewaythatotherstreatus.Therefore,atstakeinagivencrisisisnot
simplywhetherwesatisfyourownideasofwhatisdueourhonor.Ourbehaviorandtheresolutionthatweobtainmust
enhanceourreputationourprestigeintheworldatlarge.

Warfighting

JacksonianAmericahasclearideasabouthowwarsshouldbefought,howenemiesshouldbetreated,andwhatshould
happenwhenthewarsareover.Itrecognizestwokindsofenemiesandtwokindsoffighting:honorableenemiesfighta
cleanfightandareentitledtobeopposedinthesamewaydishonorableenemiesfightdirtywarsandinthatcaseallrules
areoff.

Anhonorableenemyisonewhodeclareswarbeforebeginningcombatfightsaccordingtorecognizedrulesofwar,
honoringsuchtraditionsastheflagoftrucetreatsciviliansinoccupiedterritorywithdueconsiderationandacrucial
pointrefrainsfromthemistreatmentofprisonersofwar.Thosewhosurrendershouldbetreatedwithgenerosity.
Adversarieswhohonorthecodewillbenefitfromitsprotections,whilethosewhowantadirtyfightwillgetone.

ThispatternwasveryclearlyillustratedintheCivilWar.TheArmyofthePotomacandtheArmyofNorthernVirginiafaced
oneanotherthroughoutthewar,andfoughtsomeofthebloodiestbattlesofthenineteenthcentury,includinglongboutsof
trenchwarfare.YetRobertE.Leeandhismenwerepermittedanhonorablesurrenderandreturnedunmolestedtotheir
homeswiththeirhorsesandpersonalsidearms.OneConfederate,however,wasexecutedafterthewar:CaptainHenry
Wirz,whowasconvictedofmistreatingUnionprisonersofwaratCampSumter,Georgia.

AlthoughAmericanIndiansoftenwonrespectfortheirextraordinarypersonalcourage,Jacksonianopiniongenerally
consideredIndianstobedishonorableopponents.American-Indianwarriorcodes(alsohonorbased)permittedsurprise
attacksonciviliansandthetortureofprisonersofwar.Thiswasallpartofacomplexsystemoflimitedwarfareamongthe
tribalnations,butJacksonianfrontierdwellerswerenotstudentsofmulticulturaldiversity.Intheirview,Indianwartactics
werethesignofadishonorable,unscrupulousandcowardlyformofwar.AngeratsuchtacticsledJacksonianstoabandon
therestraintsimposedbytheirownwarcodes,andtheuglyskirmishesalongthefrontierspiraledintoaseriesofgenocidal
conflictsinwhicheachsidefelttheotherwasviolatingeverystandardofhumaneconduct.

TheJapanese,anotherpeoplewithahighlydevelopedwarcodebasedonpersonalhonor,hadthemisfortunetocreatethe
samekindofimpressiononAmericanJacksonians.ThesneakattackonPearlHarbor,thegrossmistreatmentofAmerican
pows(theBataanDeathMarch),andJapanesefightingtacticsallservedtoenrageAmericanJacksoniansandledthemto
seethePacificenemyasruthless,dishonorableandinhuman.Allcontributedtothevitriolicintensityofcombatinthe
Pacifictheater.Bythesummerof1945,Americanpopularopinionwasfullypreparedtocountenanceinvasionofthe
Japanesehomeislands,eveniftheyweredefendedwiththetenacity(andindifferencetocivilianlives)thatmarkedthe
fightingonOkinawa.

Giventhisbackground,theAmericanswhodecidedtousetheatomicbombmayhavebeencorrectthattheuseofthe
weaponsavedlives,andnotonlyofAmericansoldiers.Inanycase,Jacksonianshadnocompunctionaboutusingthe
bomb.GeneralCurtisLeMay(subsequentlythe1968runningmateofJacksonianpopulistthird-partycandidateGeorge
Wallace)succinctlysummedupthisattitudetowardfightingadishonorableopponent:"Illtellyouwhatwarisabout",said
Lemayinaninterview,"Youvegottokillpeople,andwhenyouvekilledenoughtheystopfighting."

Bycontrast,althoughtheGermanscommittedbestialcrimesagainstciviliansandpows(especiallySovietpows),their
behaviortowardthearmedforcesoftheUnitedStateswasmoreinaccordancewithAmericanideasaboutmilitaryhonor.
Indeed,GeneralErwinRommelisconsideredsomethingofamilitaryheroamongAmericanJacksonians:anhonorable
enemy.Still,iftheGermansavoidedexposuretotheutmostfuryofanarousedAmericanpeopleatwar,theywere
neverthelesssubjectedtothefull,ferociousscopeoftheviolencethatafullyarousedAmericanpublicopinionwillsustain
andeveninsistupon.

ForthefirstJacksonianruleofwaristhatwarsmustbefoughtwithallavailableforce.Theuseoflimitedforceisdeeply
repugnant.Jacksoniansseewarasaswitchthatiseither"on"or"off."Theydonotliketheideaofviolenceonadimmer
switch.Eitherthestakesareimportantenoughtofightforinwhichcaseyoushouldfightwitheverythingyouhaveor
theyarenot,inwhichcaseyoushouldmindyourownbusinessandstayhome.Toengageinalimitedwarisoneofthe
costliestpoliticaldecisionsanAmericanpresidentcanmakeneitherTrumannorJohnsonsurvivedit.

ThesecondkeyconceptinJacksonianthoughtaboutwaristhatthestrategicandtacticalobjectiveofAmericanforcesisto
imposeourwillontheenemywithasfewAmericancasualtiesaspossible.TheJacksoniancodeofmilitaryhonordoesnot
turnwarintosport.Itisadeadlyandearnestbusiness.Thisisnotthechivalryofamedievaljoust,oroftheorderly
battlefieldsofeighteenth-centuryEurope.Onedoesnottakeriskswithsoldierslivestogivea"fairfight."Somesectorsof
opinionintheUnitedStatesandabroadwerebothshockedandappalledduringtheGulfandKosovowarsoverthewayin
whichAmericanforcesattackedtheenemyfromtheairwithoutengaginginmuchgroundcombat.The"turkeyshoot"
qualityoftheclosingmomentsofthewaragainstIraqcreatedaparticularlypainfulimpression.Jacksoniansdismisssuch
thoughtsoutofhand.ItistheobviousdutyofAmericanleaderstocrushtheforcesarrayedagainstusasquickly,
thoroughlyandprofessionallyaspossible.

Jacksonianopiniontakesabroadviewofthepermissibletargetsinwar.Againreflectingaveryoldculturalheritage,
Jacksoniansbelievethattheenemyswilltofightisalegitimatetargetofwar,evenifthisinvolvesAmericanforcesin
attacksoncivilianlives,establishmentsandproperty.Thecolonialwars,theRevolutionandtheIndianwarsallgiveample
evidenceofthisview,andGeneralWilliamTecumsehShermansMarchtotheSeashowedthedegreetowhichthetargeting
ofcivilianmoralethroughsystematicviolenceanddestructioncould,towidespreadpopularapplause,becomean
acknowledgedwarfightingstrategy,evenwhenfightingonesownrebelliouskindred.

Probablyasaresultoffrontierwarfare,Jacksonianopinioncametobelievethatitwasbreakingthespiritoftheenemy
nation,ratherthanthefightingpoweroftheenemysarmies,thatwasthechiefobjectofwarfare.Itwasnotenoughto
defeatatribeinbattleonehadto"pacify"thetribe,toconvinceitutterlythatresistancewasandalwayswouldbefutileand
destructive.Forthistohappen,thewarhadtogototheenemyshome.Thevillageshadtobeburned,foodsupplies
destroyed,civilianshadtobekilled.Fromthetiniestchildtothemostreveredoftheelderlysages,everyoneintheenemy
nationhadtounderstandthatfurtherarmedresistancetothewilloftheAmericanpeoplewhateverthatmightbewas
simplynotanoption.

Withthedevelopmentofairpowerand,later,ofnuclearweapons,thislong-standingculturalacceptanceofciviliantargeting
assumednewimportance.WilsoniansandJeffersoniansprotestedevenatthetimeagainstthedeliberateterrorbombingof
civiliantargetsintheSecondWorldWar.Since1945therehasbeenmuchagonizedreviewoftheAmericandecisiontouse
atomicbombsagainstHiroshimaandNagasaki.Noneofthishandwringinghasmadetheslightestimpressiononthe
Jacksonianviewthatthebombingswereself-evidentlyjustifiedandright.DuringboththeVietnamandKoreanconflicts,
therewereseriousproposalsinJacksonianquarterstousenuclearweaponswhyelsehavethem?Theonlyreason
Jacksonianopinionhaseveracceptednottousenuclearweaponsistheprospectofretaliation.

Jacksoniansalsohavestrongideasabouthowwarsshouldend."Thereisnosubstituteforvictory",asGeneralMacArthur
said,andtheonlysuresignofvictoryisthe"unconditionalsurrender"ofenemyforces.JustasJacksonianopinionresents
limitsonAmericanweaponsandtactics,italsoresentsstoppingshortofvictory.Unconditionalsurrenderisnotalwaysa
literalandabsolutedemand.TheConfederatesurrendersin1865includedgenerousprovisionsforthelosingarmies.The
JapanesewereassuredafterthePotsdamDeclarationthat,whiletheUnitedStatesinsistedonunconditionalsurrenderand
acceptanceoftheterms,theycouldkeepthe"emperorsystem"afterthewar.However,thereisonlysomuchgiveinthe
idea:allresistancemustceaseU.S.forcesmustmakeanunopposedentryintoandoccupationofthesurrenderingcountry
thepoliticalobjectivesofthewarmustbeconcededintoto.

WheninthelaterstagesofWorldWarIItheJointChiefsofStaffdiscussedtheprospectofaninvasionofKyushu,the
southernmostofthemajorJapanesehomeislands,AdmiralWilliamLeahyprojected268,000Americanswouldbekilledor
woundedoutofaninvasionforceof766,000.TheinvasionofthechiefislandofHonshu,tentativelyplannedforthespring
of1946,wouldhavebeensignificantlyworse.WhileprojectedcasualtyfiguresliketheseledanumberofAmericanofficials
toargueformodificationoftheunconditionalsurrenderformula,SecretaryofStateJamesM.ByrnestoldTrumanthathe
wouldbe"crucified"ifheretreatedfromthisformulaonethatreceivedastandingovationwhenTrumanrepeateditto
Congressinhisfirstaddressaspresident.Trumanagreedwisely.HiseffortstowagelimitedwarinKoreacosthimre-
electionin1952.Similarly,LyndonJohnsonsinabilitytofightunlimitedwarforunconditionalsurrenderinVietnamcosthim
thepresidencyin1968JimmyCartersinabilitytoresolvetheIranianhostagecrisiswithaclear-cutvictorydestroyedany
hopehehadofwinningthe1980electionandGeorgeBushsrefusaltoinsistonanunconditionalsurrenderinIraqmay
havecontributedtohisdefeatinthe1992presidentialelection.ForAmericanpresidents,MacArthurisright:thereisno
substituteforvictory.

InVictory,Magnanimity

Oncetheenemyhasmadeanunconditionalsurrender,thehonorcodedemandsthathebetreatedmagnanimously.Grantfed
Leesmenfromhisarmysupplies,whileShermansinitialagreementwithGeneralJohnstonwassogenerousthatitwas
overruledinWashington.AmericanoccupationtroopsinbothGermanyandJapanveryquicklylosttheirrancoragainstthe
defeatedfoes.Notalwaysdisinterestedly,GIsinEuropewerepassingoutchocolatebars,cigarettesandnylonstockings
beforethegunsfellsilent.ThebitterracialantagonismthatcoloredthePacificWarrapidlyfadedafterit.NeitherinJapan
norinGermanydidAmericanoccupiersbehaveliketheSovietoccupationforcesineasternGermany,wherelooting,rape
andmurderwerestillwidespreadmonthsafterthesurrender.

InbothGermanyandJapan,theUnitedStateshadoriginallyenvisionedaharshoccupationstrategywithmassesofwar
crimestrialsandstricteconomiccontrolssomewhatakintotheoriginalRadicalRepublicanprograminthepost-CivilWar
South.Butinallthreecases,thevictoriousAmericansquicklylosttheappetiteforvengeanceagainstallbutthemost
egregiousoffendersagainstthecode.Whateverwassaidintheheatofbattle,eventhemostRadicalReconstructionists
envisionedtheSouthsultimatereturntoitsoldpoliticalstatusandrights.Inthesameway,soonaftertheshootingstopped
inWorldWarII,AmericanpublicopinionsimplyassumedthattheultimategoalwasforGermanyandJapantoresumetheir
placesinthecommunityofnations.

Noteverybodyqualifiesforsuchlenienttreatmentunderthecode.Inparticular,repeatoffenderswillsufferincreasingly
severepenalties.AlthoughmanyAmericanswererevoltedbytheharshandgreedypeaceforcedonMexico(Grantfeltthat
theCivilWarwasinpartGodspunishmentforAmericancrimesagainstMexico),SantaAnnaslongrecordofperfidyand
crueltybuiltpopularsupportbothfortheMexicanWarandthepeace.Thepatternoffrontierwarfare,inwhichfactionsina
particulartribemightrenewhostilitiesinviolationofanagreement,helpedsolidifytheJacksonianbeliefthattherewasno
pointinmakingorkeepingtreatieswith"savages."

Intheinternationalconflictsofthetwentiethcentury,itisnoteworthythattherehavebeennomajorpopulistbacklashes
callingforharshertreatmentofdefeatedenemies.Butwhenforeignenemieslackthegoodtastetosurrender,Jacksonian
opinioncarriesgrudgesthatlastfordecades.Someoftherootsofanti-ChinafeelingintheUnitedStatestodaydatebackto
mistreatmentofAmericanprisonersduringtheKoreanWar.U.S.foodandenergyaidtoNorthKorea,indeedany
engagementatallwiththatdefiantregime,remainsprofoundlyunpopularforthesamereason.ThemullahsofIran,the
assassinsofLibyaandFidelCastrohaveneverbeenforgivenbyJacksonianopinionfortheircrimesagainstanddefianceof
theUnitedStates.Neitherwilltheybe,untiltheyacknowledgetheirsins.

InthecaseoftheColdWar,thefailureoftheSovietUniontomakeaformalsurrender,orfortheconflicttoendinanyway
thatcouldbemarkedasV-USSRDay,hasgreatlycomplicatedAmericanpolicytowardpost-ColdWarRussia.TheSoviet
UnionlosttheColdWarabsolutelyandunconditionally,andRussiahassufferedeconomicandsocialdevastation
comparabletothatsustainedbyanylosingpowerinthegreatwarsofthecentury.Butbecauseitneversurrendered,
Jacksonianopinionneverquiteshiftedintomagnanimitymode.Wilsonians,HamiltoniansandJeffersoniansallfavored
reconstructionsupportandaidbutwithoutJacksonianconcurrencetheAmericaneffortwassharplylimited.Advicewas
doledoutwithafreeandgeneroushand,butaidwasextendedmoregrudgingly.

ThisisfarfromacompleteaccountofJacksonianvaluesandbeliefsastheyaffecttheUnitedStates.Ineconomicaswell
asdefensepolicy,forexample,Jacksonianideasarebothinfluentialandunique.Convincedthattheprimepurposeof
governmentistodefendthelivingstandardsofthemiddleclass,Jacksonianopinionisinstinctivelyprotectionist,seeking
tradeprivilegesforU.S.goodsabroadandhopingtowithholdthoseprivilegesfromforeignexports.Jacksonianswereonce
farmerstodaytheytendtobeserviceandindustrialworkers.TheyseethepreservationofAmericanjobs,evenatthecost
ofsomeunspecifieddegreeof"economicefficiency",asthenaturalandobvioustaskofthefederalgovernmentstrade
policy.JacksonianscanbeconvincedthataparticulartradeagreementoperatestothebenefitofAmericanworkers,but
theyneedtobeconvincedoverandoveragain.Theyarealsoskeptical,onbothculturalandeconomicgrounds,ofthe
benefitsofimmigration,whichisseenasendangeringthecohesionofthefolkcommunityandintroducingnew,low-wage
competitionforjobs.NeitherresultstrikesJacksonianopinionasasuitableoutcomeforadesirablegovernmentpolicy.

TheIndispensableElement

JacksonianinfluenceinAmericanhistoryhasbeenandremainsenormous.TheUnitedStatescannotwageamajor
internationalwarwithoutJacksoniansupportonceengaged,politicianscannotsafelyendthewarexceptonJacksonian
terms.Fromtheperspectiveofmembersofotherschoolsandmanyforeignobservers,whenJacksoniansentimentfavorsa
givencourseofaction,theUnitedStateswillmovetoofar,toofastandtoounilaterallyinpursuitofitsgoals.When
Jacksoniansentimentisstronglyopposed,theUnitedStateswillbeseentomovetooslowlyornotatall.Foranyone
wishingtoanticipatethecourseofAmericanpolicy,anunderstandingofthestructureofJacksonianbeliefsandvaluesis
essential.

ItwouldbeanunderstatementtosaythattheJacksonianapproachtoforeignpolicyiscontroversial.Itisanapproachthat
hascertainlycontributeditssharetotheheadachesofAmericanpolicymakersthroughouthistory.Ithasalsoplayedarolein
creatingaconstituencyabroadfortheideathattheUnitedStatesisaddictedtoacrudecowboydiplomacyanideathat,by
reducinginternationalfaithinthejudgmentandpredictabilityoftheUnitedStates,representsarealliabilityforAmerican
foreignpolicy.

Despiteitsundoubtedlimitationsandliabilities,however,Jacksonianpolicyandpoliticsareindispensableelementsof
Americanstrength.AlthoughWilsonians,JeffersoniansandthemoredelicatelyconstructedHamiltoniansdonotliketoadmit
it,everyAmericanschoolneedsJacksonianstogetwhatitwants.IftheAmericanpeoplehadexhibitedthefightingqualities
of,say,theFrenchinWorldWarII,neitherHamiltonians,norJeffersoniansnorWilsonianswouldhavehadtheopportunity
tohavemuchtodowithshapingthepostwarinternationalorder.

Moreover,asfolkculturesgo,JacksonianAmericaisactuallyopenandliberal.Non-Jacksoniansathomeandabroadare
fondofsneeringatwhatmustbeacknowledgedtobethedeeplyregrettableJacksonianrecordofracism,orits
commitmenttoformsofChristianbeliefthatstrikemanyasbothunorthodoxandbigoted.Certainly,JacksonianAmerica
hasnotbeenintheforefrontofthefightforminorityrights,norisitnecessarilytheplacetogosearchingforavantgarde
artisticstylesorcutting-edgephilosophicalreflectionsonthedeathofGod.

Butfolkculturalchangeismeasuredindecadesandgenerations,notelectoralcycles,andonthisclock,JacksonianAmerica
ismovingveryrapidly.Themilitaryinstitutionshavemovedfromstrictsegregationtoaconcertedattackonracisminfifty
years.Incivilianlife,thebeliefthatcolorisnobartomembershipintheJacksoniancommunityofhonorisrapidlyreplacing
earlierbeliefs.JustasSouthernerswhosegrandfathersburnedcrossesagainsttheCatholicChurchnowworkverywell
withCatholicsonallkindsofsocial,culturalandevenreligiousendeavors,soweareseeingasteadyerosionoftheracial
barriers.Evenonissuesofmodernistart,JacksonianAmericaismoving.TheVietnamMemorialinWashington,once
widelydenouncedbyJacksoniansforitsfailuretoincludefigurativesculptures,hasnowbecomeoneofthemostvisited
andreveredsitesinthecapital.OnMemorialDay,thousandsofleather-cladrepresentativesoftheJacksonianculturevisitit
ontheirHarley-Davidsons,manyofthemaccompaniedbytheirwivesridingpillion.

JacksonianAmericaperformsanadditionalservice:itmakesamajor,ifunheralded,contributiontoAmericasvaunted"soft
power."ItisnotsimplytheJeffersoniancommitmenttolibertyandequality,theWilsonianrecordofbenevolence,anti-
colonialismandsupportfordemocracy,oreventhecommercialsuccessresultingfromHamiltonianpoliciesthatattracts
peopletotheUnitedStates.Perhapsbeyondalltheseitisthespectacleofacountrythatisgoodforaveragepeopletolive
in:whereordinarypeoplecananddoexpressthemselvesculturally,economicallyandspirituallywithoutanyinhibition.The
consumerlifestyleoftheUnitedStatesandtheconsequencesoffederalpolicytoenrichthemiddleclassandmakeita
classofhomeownersandautomobiledriverswinsthecountrymanyadmirersabroad.Forthefirsttimeinhumanhistory,
millionsofordinarypeoplehaveenoughmoneyintheirpocketsandtimeontheirhandstosupportapopularculturethathas
moreresourcesthanthehighcultureofthearistocracyandelite.Thiscultureiswhathundredsofmillionsofforeigners
lovemostabouttheUnitedStates,anditsdisseminationmakesscoresofmillionsofforeignersfeelsomehowconnectedto
orevenpartoftheUnitedStates.Thecultural,socialandreligiousvibrancyandunorthodoxyofJacksonianAmericanot
excludingsuchpastimesasprofessionalwrestlingareamongthecountrysmostimportantforeignpolicyassets.

ItmayalsobeworthnotingthattheimagesofAmericanpropensitiestoviolence,andofthecapabilitiesofAmerican
militaryforcesandintelligenceoperatives,aresowidelydistributedinthemediathattheymayactuallyheighteninternational
respectforAmericanstrengthanddiscourageattemptstotestit.

Thisbasicallypositiveassessmentwouldbeincompletewithoutadescriptionofthetwomostseriousproblemsthatthe
JacksonianschoolperenniallyposesforAmericanpolicymakers.Bothofthemspringfromthewideideologicalandcultural
differencesthatdividetheJacksonianoutlookfromtheotherschools.

ThefirstproblemisthegapbetweenHamiltonianandWilsonianpromisesandJacksonianperformance.Theglobally
oriented,order-buildingschoolsofthoughtseeAmericanpowerasaresourcetobeexpendedinpursuitoftheirfar-
reachinggoals.Manyofthecommitmentstheywishtomake,theinstitutionstheywishtobuild,andthesocialand
economicpoliciestheywishtopromotedonotenjoyJacksoniansupportinsomecases,theyelicitviolentJacksonian
disagreement.ThisputsHamiltoniansandWilsoniansoverandoveragaininanawkwardposition.Atbesttheyaretryingto
pushtreaties,lawsandappropriationsthroughasulkyandreluctantCongress.Atworsttheyfindthemselvescommittedto
militaryconfrontationswithoutJacksoniansupport.Moreoftenthannot,themilitaryactivitiestheywishtopursueare
multilateral,limitedwarfareorpeacekeepingoperations.Theseareoftenunpopularbothinsidethemilitaryandinthe
countryatlarge.Caughtbetweentheircommitments(andthewell-organizedHamiltonianorWilsonianlobbiesandpressure
groupswhosepoliticalcloutisoftenatleastpartiallyresponsibleforthesecommitments)andthemanifestunpopularityof
theactionsrequiredtofulfillthem,Americanpolicymakersdither,tackfromsidetoside,andgenerallymakean
unimpressiveshow.ThisisoneofthestructuralproblemsofAmericanforeignpolicy,anditisexacerbatedbythedivided
structureoftheAmericangovernmentandSenatecustomsandrulesthatgiveadeterminedoppositionmanyopportunities
toblockactionofwhichitdisapproves.

Thesecondproblemhasasimilarorigin,butadifferentstructure.Jacksonianopinionisslowtofocusonaparticular
foreignpolicyissue,andslowerstilltomakeacommitmenttopursueanendvigorouslyandforthelongterm.Oncethat
commitmenthasbeenmade,itisevenhardertobuildJacksoniansentimentforachange.Thisisparticularlytruewhen
changeinvolvesovercomingoneoftheingrainedpreferencesinJacksoniancultureitis,forexample,muchhardertoshift
asettledhawkishconsensusinadovishdirectionthanviceversa.Thehardesttaskofallistomaintainsupportforapolicy
thateschewsoversimplificationinfavorofcomplexity.HavinggottenJacksonianopinionintoawarinVietnamorthe
PersianGulf,itwasveryhardtogetitoutagainwithoutachievingtotalvictory.OnceChinaorVietnamhasbeenestablished
asanenemynation,itisverydifficulttobuildsupportfornormalizingrelationsor,worsestill,extendingforeignaid.

Theseproblems,whichareresponsibleformanyoftherecurringsystemcrashesandunhappystalematesinAmerican
foreignpolicy,canneverbefullysolved.TheyreflectprofounddifferencesinoutlookandinterestinAmericansociety,and
itisthejobofourinstitutionstoadjudicatethesedisputesandforcecompromiseratherthantoeliminatethem.

Effortsbypolicymakerstofinessethesedisputesoftenexacerbatethebasicproblem,whichisthecultural,politicaland
classdistancebetweenJacksonianAmericaandtherepresentativesoftheotherschools.AttemptstomaskHamiltonianor
WilsonianpoliciesinJacksonianrhetoric,ortootherwisemisrepresentorhideunpopularpolicies,maysucceedintheshort
run,butultimatelytheycanleadtoacollapseofpopularconfidenceandthestiffeningofresistancetoanyandallpolicies
deemedsuspect.WhenmisguidedpoliticaladviserspersuadedthedistinctivelyunmilitaryMassachusettsGovernorMichael
Dukakistoputonahelmetandgetinatankforatelevisioncommercial,theyonlyadvertisedhowfaroutoftouchwith
JacksonianAmericatheywere.
 From: RobertOtto<robertotto25@gmail.com>
Senttime: 01/13/201611:26:53PM
To: kramer<david.j.kramer@asu.edu>
Subject: Mead-AssessingObama'sforeignpolicy|ISPI

http://www.ispionline.it/en/pubblicazione/assessing-obamas-foreign-policy-14441

AssessingObama'sforeignpolicy
PresidentObamasfinalStateoftheUnionaddresscomesatatimewhen,forthefirsttimeinhisadministration,the
publicbelievesthatthenationsmostseriousproblemsinvolveforeignpolicyratherthandomesticissues,themajority
disapprovesofthePresidentshandlingofforeignaffairs,and73percentsaytheywantthenextPresidenttotakea
differentapproachtoforeignpolicy.PresidentObama,forhispart,remainsdeeplycommittedtohisapproachtoforeign
affairs,isdeterminedtocontinueonhiscurrentcoursethroughtheendofhismandate,andwantsanewkindofforeign
policytobepartofthepoliticallegacyofhisadministration.

Thiswillbeanuphillbattle.EvenHillaryClinton,thePresidentsformerSecretaryofState,hasmovedtodistance
herselffromsomeofthePresidentssignaturepolicies.(ShewouldhavebeenmoreinterventionistinSyria,morepatient
withIsrael,lessforthcomingwithRussia.)AsfortheRepublicans,SenatorRandPaulwasthecandidatewhoseforeign
policyviewsmostresemblethoseofthePresident,andinlargepartbecauseofthechangesinpublicsentimentthatthe
Presidentisstrugglingwith,SenatorPaulhasnowbeenrelegatedtothesecond,insignificanttierofRepublicanhopefuls
anddroppedfromtheprincipaldebates.

PresidentObamaandSenatorPaulbothstandwithintheJeffersoniantraditionofAmericanforeignpolicy.Thisschool
ofthoughtbelievesthattheprinciplesoftheAmericanRevolutionfarebestwhenAmericanforeignpolicyisleastactive.To
activelyseekAmericasManifestDestinythroughtheexpansionofAmericasglobalrole,Jeffersoniansbelieve,exposesthe
UnitedStatestoforeignhostility,endangerscivillibertiesathome,andentanglestheUnitedStateswithuntrustworthy
powerswhoarefundamentallyhostiletoAmericanideals.Americacanbestchangetheworld,Jeffersoniansbelieve,by
cultivatingitsowngardenandsettinganexampleofdemocraticprosperitythatotherswillemulate.

PresidentObamasapproachtoIran,thelynchpinofhisMiddleEasternstrategy,isaclassicexampleofJeffersonian
statecraftthroughwhichObamahopestostabilizeandultimatelydemocratizetheMiddleEastwhilereducingAmericas
profileintheregion.ByachievinganuclearagreementandreopeningIranseconomytotheworld,Obamahopestoreduce
thechancesforwar(andtheneedforcloseAmericanallianceswithdifficultallieslikeIsraelandSaudiArabia)while
acceleratingthedemocratictransitionofamodernizingIranbyintegratingthatcountryintointernationalmarkets.

TheoriginalgranddesignoftheObamaglobalstrategywaslooselymodeledontheNixon/Kissingerforeignpolicy:a
mixofdtente,withdrawalandengagement.WhereNixonandKissingerpursueddtentewiththeSovietUnion,withdrawal
fromIndochinaandoutreachtoChina,ObamaproposeddtentewithRussia,SunniIslam,andIranwithdrawalfromIraq
andthepivottoAsiaasanewkindofAmericanengagementinAsia.

PartsoftheObamapolicyarelesscontroversialthanothers.Inparticular,thepursuitofclosertieswithAsiannations
concernedaboutarisingChinaislikelytoremainafeatureinAmericanforeignpolicynomatterwhooccupiestheWhite
HouseinJanuaryofnextyear.Otherelementsofhisforeignstrategyaregenerallyconsideredtohavefailed.ThenextWhite
House,DemocraticorRepublican,islikelytotakeaharderlinewithMoscowandtotakeahardandskepticallookatthe
Presidentscounterterrorismstrategy.

ThemostimportantopenquestionremainsthefateofPresidentObamasoutreachtoIran.Thenuclearagreement,
slatedtogointoeffectthesameweekastheStateoftheUnionaddress,wasthemostimportantdiplomaticagreement
reachedunderPresidentObamaandremainshighlycontroversialintheUnitedStates.Thecontroversyislessoverthe
specifictermsoftheagreementthanaboutwhetherdtentewithIrancanbeachievedontermsthatreduceratherthan
exacerbatethechaoticsituationintheMiddleEastasawhole.ThelogicofPresidentObamasIranandRussiapolicies,for
example,stronglysuggestsanultimateAmericanacquiescenceinthecontinuedpresenceoftheAssadgovernmentin
DamascusaspartofanoverallpoliticalsettlementinSyria.ForPresidentObama,acquiescinginadefactoIraniansphere
ofinfluenceextendingfromBasrainsouthernIraqtoBeirut,evenifIranandRussiaremainaligned,canpotentiallybeseen
asthefirststepinstabilizingtheMiddleEastwhilereducingAmericasprofilethere.Itisnotatallclearthatanyofthe
currentcontendersforthepresidency,HillaryClintonnotexcluded,wouldagreewiththatassessment.
Ultimately,thefutureofPresidentObamasIranpolicywillbedecidedbyeventsontheground.TraditionalAmerican
alliesintheregion,SaudiArabia,Egypt,IsraelandnowincreasinglyTurkeyarepushingagainsttheoutreachtoIranthe
PresidentremainscommittedtohispolicybutasPresidentObamaapproachestheendofhisterm,bothinIranand
elsewherepolicymakerswillincreasinglydiscounthimasafactorinfutureAmericanpolicyanditisimpossibletopredict
howtheregionalenvironmentwillevolve.

Jihadiviolenceisanotherwildcard.Sensationalattacks,liketheoneinParis,orlonewolfattacksliketheoneinSan
BernardinoaredeeplyunsettlingtoAmericanpublicopinion.ThePresidentiscommittedtotheargumentthatoverreaction
leadstocounterproductivepolicydecisionshehassofarfailedtobringthepublicwithhim.Ifthepaceand/ortheintensity
ofsuchattacksincreasesduring2016,theimpactonpublicopinionandevenontheelectioncouldbedecisive,withmajor
consequencesforthePresidentslegacy.

ManyobserversathomeandabroadmisunderstandPresidentObamasforeignpolicy,seeinghimasskepticalof
Americanclaimstoauniqueglobalrole.Onthecontrary,PresidentObamasJeffersionianminimalismisanimatedbyan
overwhelmingfaithintheunstoppablepowerofAmericanideals.Iraninparticular,thePresidentbelieves,ismoving
Americasway.Theyoung,educatedpopulationoftheIslamicRepublicwillpushthecountryirresistiblytowardsomekind
ofaccommodationwithwesternideasinwaysthatthelessadvancedGulfmonarchiescannothopetoemulate.The
Presidenthasrepeatedlydeclaredthatthetideofhistorywillcarryeveryonetoliberaldemocraticshores.Hedismisses
challengestoAmericanpowerasmereshort-termconcernsPutin,themullahsandtheterroristsareincapableofreversing
themarchofhistoryorofdestabilizingtheworldsystem.

ThenextPresidentisunlikelytobeasoptimisticwhatthatmeansforAmericanforeignpolicyremainstobeseen.

WalterRussellMeadistheDistinguishedScholarinAmericanStrategyandStatesmanshipattheHudsonInstitute,the
JamesClarkeChaceProfessorofForeignAffairsandHumanitiesatBardCollege,andEditor-at-LargeofTheAmerican
Interest.
 From: RobertOtto<robertotto25@gmail.com>
Senttime: 01/13/201611:26:53PM
To: kramer<david.j.kramer@asu.edu>
Subject: Mead-AssessingObama'sforeignpolicy|ISPI

http://www.ispionline.it/en/pubblicazione/assessing-obamas-foreign-policy-14441

AssessingObama'sforeignpolicy
PresidentObamasfinalStateoftheUnionaddresscomesatatimewhen,forthefirsttimeinhisadministration,the
publicbelievesthatthenationsmostseriousproblemsinvolveforeignpolicyratherthandomesticissues,themajority
disapprovesofthePresidentshandlingofforeignaffairs,and73percentsaytheywantthenextPresidenttotakea
differentapproachtoforeignpolicy.PresidentObama,forhispart,remainsdeeplycommittedtohisapproachtoforeign
affairs,isdeterminedtocontinueonhiscurrentcoursethroughtheendofhismandate,andwantsanewkindofforeign
policytobepartofthepoliticallegacyofhisadministration.

Thiswillbeanuphillbattle.EvenHillaryClinton,thePresidentsformerSecretaryofState,hasmovedtodistance
herselffromsomeofthePresidentssignaturepolicies.(ShewouldhavebeenmoreinterventionistinSyria,morepatient
withIsrael,lessforthcomingwithRussia.)AsfortheRepublicans,SenatorRandPaulwasthecandidatewhoseforeign
policyviewsmostresemblethoseofthePresident,andinlargepartbecauseofthechangesinpublicsentimentthatthe
Presidentisstrugglingwith,SenatorPaulhasnowbeenrelegatedtothesecond,insignificanttierofRepublicanhopefuls
anddroppedfromtheprincipaldebates.

PresidentObamaandSenatorPaulbothstandwithintheJeffersoniantraditionofAmericanforeignpolicy.Thisschool
ofthoughtbelievesthattheprinciplesoftheAmericanRevolutionfarebestwhenAmericanforeignpolicyisleastactive.To
activelyseekAmericasManifestDestinythroughtheexpansionofAmericasglobalrole,Jeffersoniansbelieve,exposesthe
UnitedStatestoforeignhostility,endangerscivillibertiesathome,andentanglestheUnitedStateswithuntrustworthy
powerswhoarefundamentallyhostiletoAmericanideals.Americacanbestchangetheworld,Jeffersoniansbelieve,by
cultivatingitsowngardenandsettinganexampleofdemocraticprosperitythatotherswillemulate.

PresidentObamasapproachtoIran,thelynchpinofhisMiddleEasternstrategy,isaclassicexampleofJeffersonian
statecraftthroughwhichObamahopestostabilizeandultimatelydemocratizetheMiddleEastwhilereducingAmericas
profileintheregion.ByachievinganuclearagreementandreopeningIranseconomytotheworld,Obamahopestoreduce
thechancesforwar(andtheneedforcloseAmericanallianceswithdifficultallieslikeIsraelandSaudiArabia)while
acceleratingthedemocratictransitionofamodernizingIranbyintegratingthatcountryintointernationalmarkets.

TheoriginalgranddesignoftheObamaglobalstrategywaslooselymodeledontheNixon/Kissingerforeignpolicy:a
mixofdtente,withdrawalandengagement.WhereNixonandKissingerpursueddtentewiththeSovietUnion,withdrawal
fromIndochinaandoutreachtoChina,ObamaproposeddtentewithRussia,SunniIslam,andIranwithdrawalfromIraq
andthepivottoAsiaasanewkindofAmericanengagementinAsia.

PartsoftheObamapolicyarelesscontroversialthanothers.Inparticular,thepursuitofclosertieswithAsiannations
concernedaboutarisingChinaislikelytoremainafeatureinAmericanforeignpolicynomatterwhooccupiestheWhite
HouseinJanuaryofnextyear.Otherelementsofhisforeignstrategyaregenerallyconsideredtohavefailed.ThenextWhite
House,DemocraticorRepublican,islikelytotakeaharderlinewithMoscowandtotakeahardandskepticallookatthe
Presidentscounterterrorismstrategy.

ThemostimportantopenquestionremainsthefateofPresidentObamasoutreachtoIran.Thenuclearagreement,
slatedtogointoeffectthesameweekastheStateoftheUnionaddress,wasthemostimportantdiplomaticagreement
reachedunderPresidentObamaandremainshighlycontroversialintheUnitedStates.Thecontroversyislessoverthe
specifictermsoftheagreementthanaboutwhetherdtentewithIrancanbeachievedontermsthatreduceratherthan
exacerbatethechaoticsituationintheMiddleEastasawhole.ThelogicofPresidentObamasIranandRussiapolicies,for
example,stronglysuggestsanultimateAmericanacquiescenceinthecontinuedpresenceoftheAssadgovernmentin
DamascusaspartofanoverallpoliticalsettlementinSyria.ForPresidentObama,acquiescinginadefactoIraniansphere
ofinfluenceextendingfromBasrainsouthernIraqtoBeirut,evenifIranandRussiaremainaligned,canpotentiallybeseen
asthefirststepinstabilizingtheMiddleEastwhilereducingAmericasprofilethere.Itisnotatallclearthatanyofthe
currentcontendersforthepresidency,HillaryClintonnotexcluded,wouldagreewiththatassessment.
Ultimately,thefutureofPresidentObamasIranpolicywillbedecidedbyeventsontheground.TraditionalAmerican
alliesintheregion,SaudiArabia,Egypt,IsraelandnowincreasinglyTurkeyarepushingagainsttheoutreachtoIranthe
PresidentremainscommittedtohispolicybutasPresidentObamaapproachestheendofhisterm,bothinIranand
elsewherepolicymakerswillincreasinglydiscounthimasafactorinfutureAmericanpolicyanditisimpossibletopredict
howtheregionalenvironmentwillevolve.

Jihadiviolenceisanotherwildcard.Sensationalattacks,liketheoneinParis,orlonewolfattacksliketheoneinSan
BernardinoaredeeplyunsettlingtoAmericanpublicopinion.ThePresidentiscommittedtotheargumentthatoverreaction
leadstocounterproductivepolicydecisionshehassofarfailedtobringthepublicwithhim.Ifthepaceand/ortheintensity
ofsuchattacksincreasesduring2016,theimpactonpublicopinionandevenontheelectioncouldbedecisive,withmajor
consequencesforthePresidentslegacy.

ManyobserversathomeandabroadmisunderstandPresidentObamasforeignpolicy,seeinghimasskepticalof
Americanclaimstoauniqueglobalrole.Onthecontrary,PresidentObamasJeffersionianminimalismisanimatedbyan
overwhelmingfaithintheunstoppablepowerofAmericanideals.Iraninparticular,thePresidentbelieves,ismoving
Americasway.Theyoung,educatedpopulationoftheIslamicRepublicwillpushthecountryirresistiblytowardsomekind
ofaccommodationwithwesternideasinwaysthatthelessadvancedGulfmonarchiescannothopetoemulate.The
Presidenthasrepeatedlydeclaredthatthetideofhistorywillcarryeveryonetoliberaldemocraticshores.Hedismisses
challengestoAmericanpowerasmereshort-termconcernsPutin,themullahsandtheterroristsareincapableofreversing
themarchofhistoryorofdestabilizingtheworldsystem.

ThenextPresidentisunlikelytobeasoptimisticwhatthatmeansforAmericanforeignpolicyremainstobeseen.

WalterRussellMeadistheDistinguishedScholarinAmericanStrategyandStatesmanshipattheHudsonInstitute,the
JamesClarkeChaceProfessorofForeignAffairsandHumanitiesatBardCollege,andEditor-at-LargeofTheAmerican
Interest.
 From: ChristopherBort<chrisbort@me.com>
Senttime: 01/08/201606:39:22PM
To: RobertOtto<robertotto25@gmail.com>Lindanemec<lindanemec@gmail.com>
Subject: Abeercratefullofshit...Clinton-Blairtranscriptsreleased

DuncanAstle(@DuncanAstle)
1/8/16,8:16AM
ThisisthebestClinton-BlairexchangethatIhavereadsofar...youcouldnotmakeitup.pic.twitter.com/qQX9Wq5FFF

DownloadtheTwitterapp

SentfrommyiPad
 From: FionaHill<fhill@brookings.edu>
Senttime: 01/04/201604:00:25PM
To: RobertOtto<robertotto25@gmail.com>
Subject: RE:FredKaplan:HowObamaMakesForeignPolicy|ForeignAffairs

ThanksforalltheitemsBobandgreattoseeyoutoday!

From:RobertOtto[mailto:robertotto25@gmail.com]
Sent:Monday,January04,20163:23PM
To:FionaHill
Subject:FredKaplan:HowObamaMakesForeignPolicy|ForeignAffairs

http://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/2015-12-07/obamas-way?cid=emc-Dec15_Remail_A-content-
123115&sp_mid=50368504&sp_rid=cm9iZXJ0b3R0bzI1QGdtYWlsLmNvbQS2&spMailingID=50368504&spUserID=OTQ5NTcwNTM2OTIS1&spJobID=824531828&spReportId=ODI0NTMxODI4S0

Obama'sWay
OnJanuary28,2009,barelyaweekintohispresidency,BarackObamametwiththeU.S.militarystopgeneralsandadmiralsontheirownturf,insidethetank,theJointChiefsofStaffsconferenceroom
onthesecondfloorofthePentagon.Aseniorofficialrecalledthenewpresidentasremarkablyconfidentcomposed,relaxed,butalsodeferential,nottryingtoacttoomuchthecommanderinchief.Obama
walkedaroundtheroom,introducinghimselftoeveryonehethankedthemandtheentirearmedforcesfortheirserviceandsacrificethenhesatdownforafreewheelingdiscussionoftheworldschallenges,
regionbyregion,crisisbycrisis.Hewasthemaninfull,theofficialsaid,fluentoneveryissue,butmorethanthatasurprisetotheofficers,whohadbeenleeryofthisyoung,inexperiencedDemocrathe
displayedadeepstreakofrealism.
Atonepoint,Obamaremarkedthathewasnotthesortofpersonwhodrivesdownastreetwishinghecouldparkwhereverhelikes.Ifhesawanopenspot,evenonethatrequiredsometrickyparallelparking,
hewouldbefinewithsqueezingintoit.Obamasmeaningwasclear:hehadbeendealtabadhand(twounpopularwars,alienatedallies,thedeepestrecessionindecades),buthewouldfindawaytodealwith
theworldasitwas.
Sevenyearslater,manyofficersanddefenseofficials,includingsomewhoweresoimpressedwithObamaatthestart,lookbackathispresidencyasfollowingadifferentstyleofgoverning.Theylaudthe
historicaccomplishmentstheIrannucleardeal,theopeningtoCuba,theTrans-PacificPartnership,theprevention(sofar)ofanotherterroristattackonAmericansoilandtheyacknowledgethathehas
oftentriedtomakethebestofbadchoices.Buttoooften,theysay,hehasavoidedtakingaction,waitingforconditionstogetbettercirclingtheblockand,inhisownmetaphor,waitingforabetterparking
spottoopenup.
ThisisacommoncritiqueofObamasforeignpolicy:thatheevadesharddecisions,thatheisallergictomilitaryforceifitrisksAmericancasualtiesorescalation,thatthereisoftenamismatchbetweenhis
wordsandhisdeeds.Thisisapattern,oneretiredfour-stargeneralsaid.Heissuessternwarnings,thendoesnothing.ItdamagesAmericancredibility.
Isthechargetrue?Andtotheextentthatithassomevalidity,howmuchcanbelaidatObamasfeet,andhowmuchshouldbeattributedtotheintractabilityoftheproblemshehasfaced?Wouldadifferent
sortofpresidenthavehandledthedecadeschallengesbetter,andifso,how?
ThefollowingexaminationofkeycrisesanddecisionsisbasedonconversationsIhavehadwithdozensofofficialsacrossthespanofObamaspresidencyandwith20mid-tosenior-levelofficials(pastand
present,almostallonabackgroundbasis)interviewedspecificallyforthisarticle.
THELESSONOFLIBYA
InDecember2009,ObamajourneyedtoOslotoreceivetheNobelPeacePrize.Theawardwaspremature,tosaytheleast,butheusedhisacceptancespeechtolaydowntheprinciplesofaforeignpolicyhe
hopedtofollowasophisticatedgrapplingwiththetensionsbetweenidealismandrealism.ItwasadaringspeechforaPeacePrizerecipient.Tosaythatforcemaysometimesbenecessaryisnotacallto
cynicism,hesaid.Itisarecognitionofhistory,theimperfectionofman,andthelimitsofreason.Nationsmustadheretostandardsthatgoverntheuseofforce,andajust,lastingpeacemustbebasedon
theinherentrightsanddignityofeveryindividual.Still,Americacannotactalone,exceptonmattersofvitalnationalinterest,andmereloftyrhetoricabouthumanrightsonlysustainsacripplingstatusquo.
Engagementwithrepressiveregimesmaylackthesatisfyingpurityofindignation,butnorepressiveregimecanmovedownanewpathunlessithasthechoiceofanopendoor.
BenjaminRhodes,Obamasdeputynationalsecurityadviserforstrategiccommunications,said,Whenpeopleaskmetosummarize[Obamas]foreignpolicy,Itellthemtotakeacloselookatthatspeech.
AnotherformertopWhiteHouseofficialcalleditatemplatetohowheapproachesproblems,aframeworkforhowhethinksaboutU.S.power.Whetherhefollowedthetemplatehowhegrappledin
actionwiththetensionsherecognizedintheorywouldbe,byhisownstandard,themeasureofhispresidency.
TheearlyyearsofObamastermweretakenupwithchallengesinheritedfromtheBushadministration,especiallythewarsinAfghanistanandIraq.Atthestartof2011,however,astringofnewproblems
emerged,asdomesticprotestsagainstauthoritarianleadersbrokeoutacrosstheMiddleEast.TheBenAliregimeinTunisiafellinJanuary,andtheMubarakregimeinEgyptfollowedinearlyFebruary.Bylate
February,rebelsopposedtotheLibyandictatorMuammaral-QaddafihadseizedcontrolincitiessuchasBenghazi,andthedictatorsdaysseemednumbered.Butthenthetideofwarreversed,andQaddafis
forcesmovedtocrushtheuprising.

ObamaattheNobelPeacePrizeawardceremonyinOslo,December2009.
Withtensofthousandsofcivilianlivesatrisk,theObamaadministration,whichhadcomeoutinsupportoftherebels,facedadifficultchoice.ThemembersoftheArabLeaguewereunanimouslyimploring
theUnitedStatestogetinvolved.NATOallieswerekeentointerveneinsupportofthearmedrebels,andaUNSecurityCouncilresolutionwasintheworks.AtaNationalSecurityCouncilmeetingcalledto
discussthecrisis,SecretaryofStateHillaryClinton,U.S.AmbassadortotheUNSusanRice,andsomeofObamasNSCstaffarguedforaction,citingmoralimperativesandtheprospectofatrulymultilateral
force.Butaccordingtoseveralpeoplepresentatthemeeting,Pentagonofficialsopposedintervening,pointingoutthattheUnitedStateshadnovitalinterestsinLibyaandthatanyseriouscommitmentwould
getWashingtonboggeddown,possiblyforyears.
Twooptionsweresetbeforethepresident:goinallthewayastheleaderofanalliance,ordontgoinatall.Obamasresponsewastocomeupwithathirdway,whichemergedashethoughtthroughthe
problemoutloud.Earlyon,hearticulatedtheprinciplesthatwouldunderliewhatevercoursehechose:noU.S.bootsontheground,nomilitaryactionatallunlessithadalegalbasisandadecentchanceof
succeeding,and,finally,anappropriatedivisionoflaborwithalliestheU.S.militarywouldprovideitsuniquecapabilities(amongthemprecisionbombingandintelligencesharing),butU.S.allies,whohada
fargreaterinterestintheconflictsoutcome,wouldassumethebruntofprotectingLibyanciviliansandrestoringorderafterthefighting.
InaninterviewatthetimewithTheNewYorker,anObamaadviser(whoseidentityremainsunknown)dubbedthisapproachleadingfrombehind,atermthatwouldcomeinformuchderision.Butincontext,
itmadesense,anditfitObamasoutlookontheroleandlimitsofmilitaryforce,thedistinctionbetweeninterestsandvitalinterests,andtheneedtoaligntheinstrumentsofpowerwiththeintensityofthose
interests.
Thefirstphaseoftheresultingoperationwasultimatelyasuccess.ThecombinationofU.S.airstrikesandintelligence,NATOairsupport,andrebelmovementsonthegroundledtothedefeatofQaddafis
forcesand(althoughthiswasnotanexplicitaimofthecampaign)thekillingoftheLibyanleaderhimself.Butthesecondphasewasafailure:anewgovernmentwasneverfullyformed,therebelfactions
squabblesdegeneratedintocivilwar,andthecountryssocialorder(suchasitwas)collapsed.
TheproblemwasthattheNATOalliesthathadpromisedtoleadthestabilizationphaseofapost-QaddafiLibyadidnotfollowthrough,inpartbecausethisphaseturnedouttobemuchmoreviolentthanthey
hadanticipated.Restoring(or,really,creating)orderwouldhaverequiredarmedinterventionandpossiblyseriouscombatontheground,amissionforwhichEuropeanstateshadlittlecapacityandless
appetite.
Obamarecognizedthefailure,acknowledginginhisSeptember2015speechtotheUNGeneralAssembly,EvenaswehelpedtheLibyanpeoplebringanendtothereignofatyrant,ourcoalitioncouldhave
andshouldhavedonemoretofillavacuumleftbehind.AndthelessonweighedonhimwhenconsideringhowtohandleasimilarcrisisinSyria.

ZohraBensemra/REUTERSLibyanrebelsattheairportinMisrata,May2011.
THESYRIANSINKHOLE
AstheArabSpringevolved,demonstrationsbrokeoutinDamascusagainstSyrianPresidentBasharal-Assad.Assadstruckbackwithextremeforce,killingprotestersfirstbythehundreds,thenbythe
thousands.Gradually,arebelforcearose,andthecountryplungedintocivilwar.WiththeUnitedStateshavingalreadyintervenedinLibyaundersimilarcircumstances,thequestionnaturallyarosewhetherit
wouldinterveneinSyriaaswell.
InanNSCmeeting,Obamaspelledoutthedifferencesbetweenthetwoconflicts.Libyasfightinghadtakenplaceonanopendesert,whichallowedforcleartargetingSyriawasenmeshedinurbanwarfare,
withcivilians,rebels,andsoldiersintermingled.TheLibyanrebelshadhadachanceatformingacohesivegovernmenttherewerenosuchpossibilitiesinSyria.Nootheroutsidepowerwascallingonthe
UnitedStatestointervenethistimearound.Finally,theconflictwascascadingintoaproxywarfortheregionwideSunni-Shiiteconfrontation.NotonlydidtheUnitedStateshavelittleatstakeinthisfight,butit
alsohadlittleabilitytoinfluenceitsdirectionoroutcome.Accordingtoseveralattendeesofthemeeting,nobodyreallydisagreedwiththesepoints.
Andyettheadministrationhadaligneditselfwiththeseasonspopularuprisings.InMay,inaspeechofuncharacteristicexuberance,Obamalikenedtheturmoiltopreviouserasofdemocraticrevolution.He
spokewithparticularurgencyaboutSyria,proclaimingthatAssadmuststopshootinghisownpeopleandallowhumanrightsmonitorstoenterthecountry.InAugust,Obamajoinedwiththeleadersof
France,Germany,andtheUnitedKingdomincallingonAssadtostepdown.Syriasrulerwasonthewrongsideofhistory,Obamasaid,declaringthatthetimehascomeforPresidentAssadtostepaside.

Forthemostpart,ObamahasstayedtruetothetemplateofhisNobeladdress,keepingsightofthebigpictureasothershavegottenlostintheshrubs.
Suchrhetoricwasdrivenbytwofactors.First,theaidesinObamasinnercirclefewofwhomknewanythingaboutMiddleEasternpoliticsreallydidthinkAssadsregimewasnearingcollapse.Second,
giventhatapparentfact,theyfeltitwasbesttoputtheadministrationpubliclyontherightsideofhistory,especiallysincealliednationswerecallingonObamatoshowleadership.
Therhetoricwasnotentirelyempty.Obamadidaskhismilitaryandintelligencechiefstocomeupwithplanstospeedhistoryalong,andinthesummerof2012,CIADirectorDavidPetraeuslaidoutascheme
toarmagroupofmoderateSyrianrebels.Theplan,whichPetraeushadformulatedwithSaudiPrinceBandarbinSultanandafewotherArabsecuritychiefs,calledforshippingsmallarms,mainlyrifles,toa
small,selectgroupoftheSyrianopposition.PetraeusdidnotpromisethemoonheexplicitlysaidthattheserebelscouldnotoustAssadrightawayandthatthegoalwastoputpressureonAssad.Ifyoure
sayingAssadmustgo,hewastellingthepresident,hereshowtheCIAcanhelp.TheplanhadthebackingofClinton,SecretaryofDefenseLeonPanetta,andtheJointChiefsofStaff.Butthepresident
rejectedit.

GORANTOMASEVIC/REUTERS
AFreeSyrianArmyfighterinAleppo,August2012.
ObamawasnotopposedtotakingactionhehadaskedPetraeusandPanettaforoptions.Buthewasopposedtodoingsomethingmerelyforthesakeofdoingsomething,andthePetraeusplanseemedtofall
intothatcategory.Whoweretheserebels,heasked?CouldtheUnitedStatesreallydistinguishthegoodonesfromthebadones?(Petraeusinsistedthathecould,butObamawasunconvinced.)Iftheserebels
didemergeasathreattotheregime,wouldIran,whichhadinvestedheavilyinAssad,simplystandby,orwoulditintervene(asObamathoughtmorelikely)?
InNSCmeetings,severalattendeesrecall,PetraeusacknowledgedthatitmighttakeyearsfortherebelstomountaneffectivechallengetoAssadsrule.Meanwhile,theCIAsplanmightthrowAssad
psychologicallyandgiveWashingtonskininthegame,apathtoinfluenceoverthelonghaul.ThiswasnotawinningargumentwithObama:hewaslookingforsomethingthathadachanceofsucceedingin
thenearterm,andhedidnotwantskininagameplayedinthequagmireofasectariancivilwar.WhilePetraeuswasworkinguptheplan,ObamaaskedtheCIAtoproduceapaperonhowofteninthepast
U.S.armshadsucceededinhelpingrebelsousthostilegovernments.Theanswer:notveryoften.Thatsealedthecase.
Althoughgroundedinlogicandhistory,therejectionofinterventioninSyriasetoffthefirstwavesofdiscontentoverObamasforeignpolicyingeneralthenotionthathedidnotwanttouseforce,thathe
wasalwaysonthelookoutforargumentsthatrationalizedthisdisinclination,thathetalkedboldbutfailedtofollowthrough,whichmadeallhiscommitmentsringhollow.
Lateron,astheself-proclaimedIslamicState(alsoknownasISIS)tookcontrolofvastswathsofIraqandSyria,ObamascriticsarguedthatifonlythepresidenthadacceptedPetraeusplan,ISISmightnot
havefoundafoothold.Buttheclaimseemsfar-fetchedeventhoughafewofObamascloseadvisersallow,inretrospect,thatitmighthavebeenworthgivingPetraeusoptionachance.Inanycase,two
yearslater,Obamaapprovedasimilarplan.However,whentheAmerican-backedrebelsstartedrackingupvictoriesonthebattlefieldandappearedtobeclosinginonAssad,Obamaspredictionofwhatwould
happennextcametrue:theIraniansredoubledtheirsupportforAssad,sendingQudsForcesoldierstofighttherebels.AndRussianPresidentVladimirPutin,fearingthelossofMoscowssoleoutpostoutside
theformerSovietUnion,senttanks,planes,andmissilestosupporttheSyrianarmy.
REDLINE,REDFACE
SyriaiswhereObamasforeignpolicymetitsmostbrutalchallenge,andwherehistoolsfordealingwithcriseswords,logic,persistentquestions,andsequentialproblemsolvingprovedinadequate.
Atleastfivetimesintheeight-monthspanbetweenAugust2012andApril2013,ObamaoradministrationofficialspubliclywarnedAssadthatusingchemicalweaponsagainstrebelsandprotesterswouldcross
aredline.Itwouldmarkagamechangerfromourperspective,Obamaelaboratedononeoccasion.Therewouldbeenormousconsequences,hesaidonanother.Itwouldbetotallyunacceptable,and
Assadwouldbeheldaccountable.Yetdespitesuchutterances,saycloseaidesandofficials,thepresidentneverorderedupaplanforwhattodoifAssadcrossedtheline.
Then,onAugust21,2013,rocketshellscontainingsaringasslammedrebel-controlledareasintheDamascussuburbs,killinganestimated1,500people.Theredlinehadbeencrossed.Obamaswiftlydecidedto
retaliate.Attackplansweredrawnup,mostofthemdesignedtodestroynotthechemicalstockpilesthemselves(explosionsofwhichmightspreadthegasfarandwide)butratherthemunitionsandfacilities
requiredtolaunchthemintobattle.Assadsregimewasnottheexplicittargetinanyoftheseplans,butsomeWhiteHouseaidesthought,orhoped,thathisstrengthmighterodeasasideeffect.

PeteSouza/WhiteHouse/HandoutviaReuters
ObamameetswithnationalsecuritystafftodiscussthesituationinSyriaintheWhiteHouseSituationRoom,August2013.
Obamaseemedtobeseriousaboutlaunchingthestrikes.HisaideswereinstructedtophonelegislatorsandjournaliststomakesuretheyhadreadanunclassifiedintelligencereportthattheWhiteHousehadjust
releasedprovingthatAssadwasbehindthechemicalattacks.AUNresolutionbackingtheuseofforceinSyriawasunlikelyRussiaandpossiblyChinawouldvetoit.SoObamaralliedArabandNATOnations
tojoinintheattack,oratleasttoendorseit.Hegotnosuchsupport,exceptfromFranceandtheUnitedKingdombutthenBritishPrimeMinisterDavidCameronrequestedauthorizationforanattackfrom
Parliament,whichvoteditdown.
OnAugust31,theNSCmetformorethantwohours.EveryonearoundthetableagreedthattheUnitedKingdomsbackpedaling,althoughregrettable,shouldnotaffectthepresidentsdecisionandthathe
shouldproceedwiththeairstrikes.Ateamoflawyersadvisedhimthathehadthelegalauthoritytodoso.Afterthemeeting,however,ObamafamouslytookawalkontheWhiteHousebacklawnwithhis
chiefofstaff,DenisMcDonough,andwhenhecamebacktotheSituationRoom,heannouncedthathehaddecidedtoletCongressvoteonthequestion.
Allofthepresidentsaidesandofficialsweresurprised,andnotinagoodway.ButObamaexplainedthatheneededsomeinstitutionalbackingforsuchadrastic,riskymove.Abombingcampaignmightkill
nearbycivilians,anditmighthavenoimpactonAssad.WhatifAssaddoubleddownandlaunchedmoreattacks,chemicalorotherwise?IftheUnitedStatesansweredwithstillmoreairstrikes,itwouldrisk
gettingsuckedintoacivilwar,andifitdidnothing,thatwouldbeworsestill:Washingtonwouldlookweaker,andAssadwouldemergestronger,thaniftheUnitedStateshaddonenothingtobeginwith.Some
WhiteHouseaideshadviewedairstrikesasaone-offproposition,butPentagonofficialshadarguedduringtheNSCmeetingsthatifObamawentaheadwithairstrikes(whichtheysupported),heshouldbe
preparedforescalation.ObamasuspectedthePentagonwasright.Whateverhedid,hisactions(orinaction)wouldsirecriticismanddisunitytheywouldreceivelittlesupportandcouldnotbesustained.
Tomanyaroundthetable,eachseparatepieceofObamasargumentmadesense,buttheoveralllogicdidnot.Maybeitwasabadideatoproceedwithairstrikes,butinthatcase,Obamashouldnothave
drawnthoseredlines:heshouldnothaverecitedtherationaleforairstrikestosomanydiplomats,journalists,andlegislatorsheshouldnothavetoldSecretaryofStateJohnKerrytomakeacaseforthe
bombings(inapowerfulspeechjusthoursbeforehechangedcourse)andaftermakingthisnewdecision,hecertainlyshouldnothavegoneaheadwithascheduledprime-timetelevisionaddressinwhichhe
detailedAssadsperfidy,laidoutthenationalsecurityconcerns,claimedhehadthelegalauthoritytorespondwithunilateralairstrikesandthenannouncedthathewassendingthemattertoCongress.

Attimes,Obamahastalkedmoreboldlythanhehasacted,creatinganeedlessgapbetweenwordsanddeeds.
OneNSCofficialwhowasrelievedthatthestrikesdidnottakeplaceneverthelesssaid,Wepaidapriceforpullingback.TheperceptionamongpeopleintheregionwasthattheycouldntrelyonObamato
pullthetrigger.AformertopWhiteHouseofficialsaid,WhenpeopleseriouspeoplesayObamaisindecisiveanduncertain,theyretalkingaboutthisepisodewithSyria.
TheWhiteHouselobbiedCongresstopassaresolutionauthorizingtheuseofforce,butthetaskwasclearlyfutile:mostRepublicansdidnotwanttodoanyfavorsforObama,andmanyDemocratswereleery
ofmilitaryaction.Intheend,Russiacametotherescue.AtapressconferenceonSeptember9,KerrywasaskedifAssadcoulddoanythingtoavoidairstrikes.Kerryreplied,Sure,hecouldturnoverevery
bitofhis[chemical]weaponstotheinternationalcommunitywithinthenextweek,withoutdelay,adding,butheisntaboutto.Toeveryonesastonishment,RussianForeignMinisterSergeyLavrovreplied
thathecouldmakethathappenandhedid.UnderRussianpressure,Assadsurrenderedverynearlyallofhischemicalweaponsfordestruction.
Obamaandhisaidesdeclaredvictory,notingthatthisdiplomaticsolutionwasmoreeffectivethanmilitarystrikeswouldhavebeenandthatthethreatofthosestrikeswaswhathaddrivenRussiatopressure
Assad.Thefirstclaimwasprobablytruethesecondprobablywasnot.ThefactisCongressseemedcertaintodefeatObamasmotionbeforeRussiasteppedin.ItispossiblethatPutinneverbelievedthat
ObamawouldfeelboundbyCongress,thathewouldfindsomewaytolaunchthestrikesanyway.Butmorepertinent,Russianleadershavealwaystakenpainstokeepweaponsofmassdestruction
biological,chemical,ornuclearoutoftheirallieshands:notsomuchbecausetheyabhorthoseweaponsasbecausetheyabhorthelossofcontrol.Moscowhaditsowninterestsinstrippingtheloosecannon
Assadoftheseghastlyweapons,andsincetheredlinecrisishadforcedObamatofocusonthechemicalsandnotonAssadsregime,thediplomaticsavewouldserveoneofRussiasvitalintereststhe
preservationofMoscowsonlyfootholdintheMiddleEast.
THEISISCRISIS
Theredlinefiascowasalowpointintheadministrationsforeignpolicy,butthetroublesinSyriawerehardlyover.Lessthanayearafterthechemicalweaponssettlement,ISISwhichObamahadrecently
dismissedasaJVversionofalQaedastormedMosul,thesecond-largestcityinIraq.TheU.S.-trainedIraqisoldiersfledatfirstcontact,andthearmedjihadistsbarreledontoRamadiandFallujahand,fora
while,cameperilouslyclosetoBaghdad.
ThejihadistshadstartedoutandwerelargelybasedinSyria,butObamafocusedhisanti-ISISstrategyonIraqbecausethatswhereitmighthavesomeeffecttheUnitedStates,afterall,hadresources,air
bases,andapartnershipofsortswithafunctioninggovernmentinthecountryandithadnoneofthosethingsinSyria,whereObamaremainedproperlywaryofdivingintoasectariancivilwar.Evenby
September2014,whenObamarealizedthatSyriacouldntbeignored(itwas,afterall,theheadquartersofISISoperations,andheknewverywellthattheIraqi-Syrianborderwasporoustothepointof
meaningless),hestucktowhathisaidescalledanIraqfirststrategy.Americanairstrikes,whichhadlongbegunagainstISISforcesinIraq,wouldbeextendedtoSyria,butonlyoverthepathsthatISIS
usedtotravelbetweenthetwocountries.ObamaalsoannouncedaprogramtotrainandequipmoderateSyrianrebelsonbasesinSaudiArabiabutnotedthattheywouldntbereadytofightISISformany
monthsclearly,Syriawasonthebackburner,atbest.
DaysafterObamasannouncement,ISISlaidsiegetoKobani,amainlyKurdishtownontheSyrian-Turkishborder.Thetownhadnostrategicsignificance,butamassacrewasinthemaking.Morethanthat,
ISISwassendingthousandsofjihadistsintothetownforminganeasyconcentratedtarget,whichneitherthePentagonnorObamacouldresist.Obamaorderedmassiveairstrikes,whichkilledanestimated
2,000to3,000ISISfighters.

AnexplosioncausedbyanairstrikeinKobani,Syria,November2014.
Inanotherunexpectedfeatureofthebattle,KurdishfightersgatheredtostaveoffISIS,foughtverycapably,andrecapturedthetown.ObamahadnotbeenopposedtogoingafterISISinsideSyriahejusthad
notseenasuitablepartnerthatcouldcarryoutthefightontheground.IntheSyrianKurds,hefoundone,andU.S.airstrikescontinued,oftenintandemwithKurdishgroundassaults.Atthesametime,the
CIAstartedcovertlyassistingagroupofrebelsinsouthernSyriawhosemainaimwastooverthrowAssad.Again,ObamahadopposedPetraeusplantoarmsomerebelsnotbecausehewasagainstarming
rebelsbutbecausehedidnotseehowthatparticularplanorthoseparticularrebelswouldsucceed.Thenewplanseemedmoreplausible,inpartbecausetheCIAandtheU.S.militaryhadgatheredalotmore
intelligenceandscopedoutreliableforcesoverthepreviousyear.(Aseparate$500millionPentagonprogramtotrainandequipasmallgroupofnorthernSyrianrebelstofightISISprovedpubliclydisastrous:
therebelsturnedouttobemoreinterestedinfightingAssadsarmythanISIS,takingthemoutofthefighttotraininSaudiArabiaonlydisorientedthem,andmoremilitantrebelskilledalmostallofthemon
theirreentryintoSyria.)
Viewedpiecebypiece,tacticalmovebytacticalmove,Obamasoperationsappearedtobemakingprogress.Butforeignfighterskeptfloodingtheregion,ISISwasbarelybudgedaside,andalthoughAssads
armyseemedimperiled,itwasstillquitelarge(ataround125,000troops)andrecoveredmuchofitsstrengthafterRussiasentintanksandjetfightersinSeptember2015.Russiasmoveraisedthehacklesof
someofObamascritics,whosawPutinastryingtorevivetheSovietempire.Obamadidntbite,andwiselyso.AtanNSCmeeting,hecautionedagainstviewingRussiasinterventionthroughaColdWar
prism.WearenotatwarwithRussiaoverSyria,hesaid,accordingtoofficialswhowereatthemeeting.Putinsvitalinterestinthishadmuchtodowithhisowndomesticpolitics,andanalarmedAmerican
responsewouldhaveplayedintohisgame.Finally,ObamadoubtedthattheRussianmilitarycampaignwouldhavemuchimpactonthebattle.
Nonetheless,Obamawasstillreceptivetoattractiveoptionsforhisownmilitaryposture.TheSyrianKurdswererackingupmoresuccesses(andrequiringmoreprotectionfromTurkey,whichwaspounding
themwithairstrikeswhileclaimingtobegoingafterISIS),andsoObamaapprovedplanstosendtheKurdsmoreammunitionandtodeployU.S.SpecialForcestojointheminraidsonISISstrongholds,
secretmissionsthatresultedinsixfatalitiesbeforeObamaannouncedtheactionspublicly.
Obamahasakeenlegalmind,whichserveshimandthecountrywellwhenhepokesholesinspeciousargumentsforriskypolicies.Butitalsoenableshimtorationalizehisownporouspositions:forinstance,
thatconductingjointraidsfallsinthecategoryofadviseandassist,notbootsontheground.Hecanalsomakefirmassurancesthathewillnotpushthesegroundforcesanyfurther,ignoringthathehas
laidthegroundworkandsetthelogicforhissuccessorintheWhiteHousetoescalatethefight,ifheorsheissoinclined.(Nottodrawpreciseparallels,butinasimilarvein,PresidentJohnF.Kennedyfirmly
resistedpressurefromtheJointChiefsofStafftodeploycombattroopstoVietnamyetexpandedthescopeandnumbersofadvisersthere,leavingPresidentLyndonJohnsontobelievehewasfollowingin
hispredecessorsfootstepswhenhepoured500,000U.S.troopsintothefight.)

SyriaiswhereObamastoolsfordealingwithcrisesprovedinadequate.
UmitBektas/REUTERSAblackflagbelongingtoISISnearKobani,October2014.
THESEARCHFORORDER
WhathasbeenmissinginObamasSyriapolicy,inallitsphases,isacoherentstrategy.HistwoaimsdefeatingISISandpressuringAssadtostepdownareinsomewayscontradictory.Assadscontinued
reignhasbeenamagnetforforeignSunnifighterstojoinISIS.Butintheshortrun,Assadsarmy,ifproperlydirected,couldbethemostpotentanti-ISISforcesecondperhapsonlytoIran,whichhasbeen
sendingmembersofitseliteQudsForcetoprotectAssadsregime.ObamahasbeenconstrainedfromforminganovertalliancewithAssadorIran,inpartbecausehehasneededSunnialliesEgypt,Turkey,
andtheGulfstatestodelegitimizeanddefeattheSunniradicalsofISISifhebondedwithShiiteIranoritsclientAssad,thosecountriesmightdropoutofthecoalition.
ThereinliestheheartoftheproblemnotonlywithObamasstrategyagainstISISbutwithanyU.S.presidentsstabatsuchastrategy.IfallthecountriesthatfearedandloathedISISwhichistosay,almost
allthecountriesintheregionjoinedforces,ISISwouldcrumbleinshortorder.Buteachofthosecountrieshasmorefearandloathingforatleastoneofitspotentialallies(TurkeyfortheKurdsandSaudi
ArabiaforIran,forexample).ForminganeffectivecoalitionhasthereforebeenallbutimpossibleafactthatISIScommandershaveshrewdlyexploited.
AsmanyofObamascriticscontend,acoherentregionalstrategynotjustaseriesofpiecemealresponsestocrisesisneededtosolvethisproblem.Butwhatisthisregionalstrategy?Whoshouldleadit?
Whatincentivesmightlurethepotentialcoalitionsplayerstosubordinatetheirindividualintereststothelargergoal?(InOctober,ObamadroppedhisreluctanceandinvitedIranandRussiatojointalksinVienna
todiscussapoliticalsolutiontotheSyriancrisisandajointfightagainstISIS.Theprospectsseemeddim,untilontheveryeveoftheconferenceISISagentsmountedcoordinatedterroristattacksinParis.
Althoughtheoddsremainlong,aplausiblepathtoasettlementopenedup.Obamaseemstohaverecognized,alongwithothers,thattranscendingthesectariandivideratherthanaccommodatingitand
formingallianceswithrivalsagainstlarger,commonthreatsistheonlywaytowardapeacefultransition.)
ThesecomplexitiesaresymptomaticofalargerphenomenonthataccountsforthesurgeofviolencethroughouttheMiddleEast:thebreakdownofthecolonialorderimposedattheendofWorldWarI.This
order,withitsartificialbordersdesignedtosplitorsuppresstribalidentities,wouldhavecollapsedafterWorldWarII(alongwiththeBritishandFrenchcolonies)butforthedeepfreezeimposedbytheCold
War.WhentheSovietUnionimploded,theColdWartoodissolved,alongwiththeinternationalsecuritysystemthatithadcreatedandsustainedfornearlyhalfacentury.Withthesubsequentdiffusionofglobal
powerandfragmentationofpowerblocs,thecollapseoftheMiddleEastsbordersandauthoritiesresumedaprocessacceleratedbyPresidentGeorgeW.Bushs2003invasionofIraq,whichdisruptedthe
balanceofpoweramongnations,sects,andtribesthathadkeptanuneasypeacebetweenShiitesandSunnis,notonlywithinIraqbutacrosstheregion,asthedisruptionsripplesspread.
SomeofObamascriticsclaimthatifhehadfoundawaytokeep10,000AmericantroopsinIraqinsteadofgoingthroughwithacompletewithdrawalin2011,therenewalofsectarianviolenceandtheriseof
ISIStofillthesubsequentpowervacuumwouldneverhavehappened.Butthisisextremelyunlikely,giventhatinanearliereraittookcloseto170,000U.S.combattroopsusingextraordinarymeasuresto
stemasimilartide,andeventhentheywereabletodosoonlytemporarily.Inanycase,Obamahadnochoiceinthematter.Thestatus-of-forcesagreement(SOFA)thatBushsignedin2008demanded,Allthe
UnitedStatesForcesshallwithdrawfromallIraqiterritorynolaterthanDecember31,2011.Obamawas,infact,amenabletokeeping5,000troopsinIraqforthelonghaulandsentemissariestoBaghdadto
seeifanextensioncouldbenegotiated,butrevisionstotheSOFAincludingaU.S.demandthatAmericantroopsenjoyimmunityfromIraqilaw,requiredparliamentaryapproval,andnofactionsintheIraqi
parliament,exceptperhapstheKurds,wouldvotefortheAmericanstostay.(ObamahasbeenabletosendmilitaryforcesbacktoIraqonlybecausetheSOFAexpiredafterthreeyears.)
AsforAfghanistan,theotherwarthatObamapromisedandtriedtoend,itkeepsragingaswell.InOctober2015,reversinganearlierpolicytowithdrawallU.S.troopsfromthecountrybytheendofhis
term,Obamaannouncedthat5,500wouldremaintheretocontinuetrainingandequippingAfghanforcesandtoconductcounterterroristoperations.

BAZRATNER/REUTERSU.S.soldiersfireahowitzerartillerypieceinKandaharProvince,Afghanistan,June2011.
ObamaannouncedthischangesoonafterTalibanfighterstookoverthenortherncityofKunduz,buthehadmadethedecisionafewmonthsearlier,accordingtoaseniorcounterterrorismofficial.Thenew
Afghanpresident,AshrafGhani,hadaskedObamanottowithdrawallU.S.troops,signedabilateralsecurityagreementgivingU.S.forceslegalprotections(anaccordthathispredecessor,HamidKarzai,had
refusedtoconsider),andpromisedreformstobroadeninclusivityandcrackdownoncorruption.Meanwhile,terroristgroupsstillflourishedacrosstheborderwithPakistan.NooneintheNSCopposed
sustainingacounterterroristforceonsomebaseintheregionherewasGhaniofferingthreeexistingbases.AninteragencystudyconductedbyGeneralMartinDempsey,thenthechairmanoftheJointChiefs
ofStaff,concludedthatthemissioncouldbesupportedwith5,500troops.Andsothedecisionwasmade.Kunduz(whichAfghansoldiersquicklyrecaptured)wasthenewspegthatpreemptedpolitical
objections.
ThetragedyofObamaspresidencyisthat,fromthebeginning,hehaswantedtoshiftawayfromthestagnantbattlefieldsinandaroundtheMiddleEastanddevotemoreattentiontotheAsia-Pacificregion,
withitsprospectsfordynamicgrowth,trade,and,intheformofChina,anexpansionistpowerthatneedstobeatoncecontainedmilitarilyandluredintotheglobaleconomy.ThisfocusonAsiacametobe
calledthepivot,orrebalancing,butObamahadrecognizeditsappealanddiscusseditasfarbackashis2008presidentialcampaign.Heunderstood,andstilldoes,thatthisiswheretheUnitedStatesfuture
interestsliebutthenever-endingcrisesoftheancientworldkeeppullinghimbackin.
LIMITEDINTERESTS,LIMITEDRISKS
AstheISISimbrogliowidened,yetanothercrisiserupted,thistimeinUkraine.AfterPutinbribedUkrainianPresidentViktorYanukovychwithanaidpackagetostophimfromsigninganassociationagreement
withtheEuropeanUnion,popularprotestsbrokeoutinKiev.WhenYanukovychcrackeddown,theprotestswidened,andhewasultimatelyforcedtoflee.PutinrespondedbysendingRussianforcestoseize
theCrimeanPeninsulaandsupportasecessionistrebellionineasternUkraine.
InNSCmeetingsheldtodecidehowtorespondtoRussiasmove,Obamaquicklyapprovedascriptofdenunciation,reinforcementsofU.S.militaryexercisesinandaroundeasternEuropesNATOallies
(especiallytheBalticstates),andastringofeconomicsanctions.
SomePentagonofficialswantedtogofurtherandsupplytheUkrainianarmywithlethaldefensiveweapons,especiallyTOWantitankmissiles.AccordingtoNSCofficials,VicePresidentJoeBidenstrongly
endorsedthisposition,sayingthattheUnitedStateshadamoralobligationtohelptheUkrainiansdefendthemselves,aswellasastrategicinterestinmakingPutinpayforhislandgrabandindeterringhimfrom
goingfurther.(NooneinanyNSCmeeting,however,advocatedsendingUkraineoffensiveweaponsordeployingU.S.troopstothecountry.)

CemOksuz/Pool/REUTERS
ObamatalkswithRussianPresidentVladimirPutinandU.S.NationalSecurityAdviserSusanRiceduringtheG20Leaders'SummitinAntalya,Turkey,November2015.
Intheend,Obamaapprovedtheprovisionofnonlethalmilitaryassistance,suchasnight-visionandradarequipment,andtrainingforUkrainesNationalGuard.Beyondthat,hewasopposed.TheUnitedStates
hadinterestsinUkraine,butnotvitalinterests.Therewerereasonstwopreviouspresidentshadconsidered,thendecidedagainst,invitingKievsleaderstojoinNATO.First,pollshadsuggestedthatlessthan
halfofUkrainianswantedmembership.Second,RussiasinterestsinUkraine,unliketheUnitedStates,werevital:RussiaandUkrainesharedaborderandalonghistoryoftrade,culturalexchange,andeven
commonstatehood.NoRussianleaderwouldstandbyasUkrainedriftedtoofarfromMoscowsorbit.
Obamalikestolookaheadtwoorthreesteps.(Hiscriticshaveseenthisasatechniqueforavoidingtheuseofforceothersseeitasamethodofrationaldecision-making.)Moscowcouldandwouldmatchor
surpassanylethalweaponsthattheWestsuppliedtoKiev.Thenwhat?IfWashingtonsentstillmorearms,itwouldriskgettingsuckedintoanarmsrace,andtheviolencewouldintensify.IftheUnitedStates
didnotrespondinkind,theWestwouldhavelostthecontestObamawouldlookweaker,andRussiastronger,thanifhehadnotsentanyarmsinthefirstplace.
ThiswasObamasfirstprincipleinalldiscussionsaboutthecrisis:hewasnotgoingtoriskawarwithRussiaforthesakeofUkraine.Atonemeeting,hesaid,IfIwantedtoinvadeCanadaorMexico,noone
coulddomuchaboutit.ThesamewastrueofPutinandUkraine.
Still,Obamaputahighvalueonenforcinginternationalnorms,oneofwhichwastheinviolabilityofborders.HefeltitnecessarytomakeRussiapayforitsviolationthequestionwashow.Militaryescalation,
 inthiscontext,wasagameRussiawouldwin,butescalationofsanctionswasonetheUnitedStatescouldwin,ifObamacouldkeepEuropeanstatesonboard.Thiswasachallenge,formanyEuropean
countriesweremorereliantonRussianenergysuppliesthantheUnitedStateswasandthereforemorevulnerabletoeconomicreprisalsfromRussia.TheywerealsodeadsetagainstriskingwaroverUkraine.If
Obamawentupthemilitaryladder,heknewtheywoulddropoutofthesanctionsregime.

Obamaskeenlegalmindallowshimtorationalizehisownporouspositions.
Atleastthroughthefallof2015,Obamaspolicyhasworked.DespitePutinseffortstosplitthetransatlanticalliance,itsmembershaveheldtightonthesanctions,andthecease-firenegotiatedinMinskin
Februaryhasheld,too.PutinslikelygoalinUkrainewastoweakenthecountryscentralgovernmentandkeepitfrommovingclosertotheWest.Atthat,hehassucceeded.IfObamaandthewestern
Europeannationshadwantedtostrikebackonthatfront,tensofbillionsofdollarsineconomicaidwouldhavemeantalotmorethanafewhundredantitankmissiles.ButbeyondarelativelypaltryInternational
MonetaryFundgrant,nooneseemedtowanttogodownthatroad.
PATIENCEANDPRAGMATISM
SohowdoesObamasrecordstackup?Thepresidenthasbeenbesiegedbyforeignpolicycrises,constrainedbydiminishedAmericanpower,andpressuredbyopponentsathomeandalliesabroadtotake
actionandshowleadership,evenwhendealingwithintractableproblems.Hehaslearnedonthejob,withhisinstinctsforcautionreinforcedbytheill-fatedLibyanintervention.Andhehas,attimes,talked
moreboldlythanhehasacted,creatinganeedlessgapbetweenwordsanddeeds.
Andyetforthemostpart,hehasstayedtruetothetemplateofhisNobeladdress,keepingsightofthebigpictureasothershavegottenlostintheshrubs.Hiscautionaboutembarkingonunnecessarymilitary
adventuresanddesiretoavoidescalatorymilitaryspiralsseemwise.Obamahasalsoprovedremarkablypatientwithdrawn-outdiplomaticnegotiations,eventhoseunlikelytobearfruit.Someofthese,suchas
theIsraeli-Palestinianpeacetalks,havepredictablygonenowhere,butothers,suchastheopeningtoCubaandthenucleardealwithIran,havebeenstrikinglysuccessful.
Thesuccessesandfailuresstem,inpart,fromthedoggedoptimismofObamassecond-termsecretaryofstate,Kerry.ItisdoubtfulthatKerrysmorecautiouspredecessor,Clinton,ormostotherpast
secretariesofstate,wouldhavestuckwiththenucleartalkswithIranforaslongasKerrydidbutneitherwouldshehavespentsomuchtimeandefforttryingtojump-startamoribundMiddleEastpeace
process.
OnedownsidetoKerrysvisionofhisjob,asspecialenvoytotheworldsmosthopelesslogjams,isthatitleavesmuchoftherestoftheworldabitanxious.ThishasbeenespeciallytrueoftheUnitedStates
alliesinAsiamostofallJapan,whoseleadersdemandconstanthandholding.DuringObamasfirstterm,KurtCampbell,theassistantsecretaryofstateforEastAsianandPacificaffairs,phonedhis
counterpartinTokyoeverydayandmetface-to-facewiththeJapaneseambassadorthreetimesaweek.OfficialswhodealwithAsianaffairssaythatafterCampbellleft,andKerryturnedtheState
Departmentsfocusalmostexclusivelytohigh-profilepeacemissions,Tokyofeltabandoned.
Still,thishardlyamountedtoacrisis.First,whenBeijingstartedflexingitsnavalmusclesintheSouthChinaSea,Japan(andAustraliaandSouthKorea)clungeverclosertoWashington,howeverfrustratedit
feltattimes.Second,anotherbigpartoftheUnitedStatesrelationswithAsiainvolvessimplyshowingupandalthoughtheassistantsecretarymaynotbecallingasoften,ObamaandKerryshowupatallthe
Asiansecurityandeconomicsummits.Anxietyaboutabandonmentremainsithasbeenafactorfordecades,atleastsincetheUnitedStatespulledoutofVietnamandsecretlyreachedouttoChinaduringthe
presidencyofRichardNixon.ButObamasmissteps,whichhavebotheredalliesintheMiddleEast,havenotweighedatallonthoseinEastAsia.DanielSneider,theassociatedirectorforresearchattheWalter
H.ShorensteinAsia-PacificResearchCenteratStanfordUniversity,hasmetprivatelywithdozensofpoliticalandmilitaryleadersfromJapanandSouthKorea.Hesays,Iveneverheardanyofthemsaya
wordabouttheredlineinSyria.
OnAugust5,2015,thepresidentdeliveredaspiritedspeechatAmericanUniversitydefendingthenucleardealthatheandfiveotherworldpowershadnegotiatedwithIran.Severaltimes,hequotedKennedys
famousAmericanUniversityspeechin1963callingforanendtotheColdWarmindsetandanewstrategybasedonapracticalandattainablepeace,onebasednotonasuddenrevolutioninhumannature
butonagradualevolutioninhumaninstitutionsonaseriesofconcreteactionsandeffectiveagreements.
Laterthatday,Obamaheldanon-the-recordroundtablediscussionwithtencolumnistsintheWhiteHouse.Whenmyturncametoaskaquestion,InotedthatKennedyhaddeliveredhisspeechafterseveral
crisesinwhichherealizedthathisadviserswereoftenwrongandthatheshouldplacemoretrustinhisowninstincts.Whatlessons,IaskedObama,hadhelearnedinhiscrises?Whatdecisionsmighthehave
madedifferently,hadheknownthenwhatheknowsnow?Heanswered:
IwouldsaythatIhavebeenconsistentinmybroadviewofhowAmericanpowershouldbedeployedandtheviewthatweunderestimateourpowerwhenwerestrictittojustourmilitarypower...
.Theresnodoubtthat,aftersixandahalfyears,IamthatmuchmoreconfidentintheassessmentsImakeandcanprobablyseearoundthecornersfasterthanIdidwhenIfirstcameintooffice.
Themapisntalwaystheterritory,andyouhavetokindofwalkthroughittogetafeelforit.
IntermsofdecisionsImake,IdothinkthatIhaveabettersenseofhowmilitaryactioncanresultinunintendedconsequences.AndIamconfirmedinmybeliefthatmuchofthetime,weare
makingjudgmentsbasedonpercentages,and...therearealwaysgoingtobesomecomplications.
AndsomaybeatthesametimeasImmoreconfidenttoday,Imalsomorehumble.Andthatspartofthereasonwhy,whenIseeasituationlikethisone[thepossibilityofanucleardealwith
Iran],wherewecanachieveanobjectivewithaunifiedworldbehindusandwepreserveourhedgeagainstitsnotworkingout,Ithinkitwouldbefoolisheventragicforustopassuponthat
opportunity.
ThisarticlehasbeenupdatedtocorrectthedatethatPresidentObamadeliveredaspeechabouttheIrannucleardealatAmericanUniversity.ItwasAugust5,2015,notApril5.

 From: FionaHill<fhill@brookings.edu>
Senttime: 01/04/201604:00:25PM
To: RobertOtto<robertotto25@gmail.com>
Subject: RE:FredKaplan:HowObamaMakesForeignPolicy|ForeignAffairs

ThanksforalltheitemsBobandgreattoseeyoutoday!

From:RobertOtto[mailto:robertotto25@gmail.com]
Sent:Monday,January04,20163:23PM
To:FionaHill
Subject:FredKaplan:HowObamaMakesForeignPolicy|ForeignAffairs

http://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/2015-12-07/obamas-way?cid=emc-Dec15_Remail_A-content-
123115&sp_mid=50368504&sp_rid=cm9iZXJ0b3R0bzI1QGdtYWlsLmNvbQS2&spMailingID=50368504&spUserID=OTQ5NTcwNTM2OTIS1&spJobID=824531828&spReportId=ODI0NTMxODI4S0

Obama'sWay
OnJanuary28,2009,barelyaweekintohispresidency,BarackObamametwiththeU.S.militarystopgeneralsandadmiralsontheirownturf,insidethetank,theJointChiefsofStaffsconferenceroom
onthesecondfloorofthePentagon.Aseniorofficialrecalledthenewpresidentasremarkablyconfidentcomposed,relaxed,butalsodeferential,nottryingtoacttoomuchthecommanderinchief.Obama
walkedaroundtheroom,introducinghimselftoeveryonehethankedthemandtheentirearmedforcesfortheirserviceandsacrificethenhesatdownforafreewheelingdiscussionoftheworldschallenges,
regionbyregion,crisisbycrisis.Hewasthemaninfull,theofficialsaid,fluentoneveryissue,butmorethanthatasurprisetotheofficers,whohadbeenleeryofthisyoung,inexperiencedDemocrathe
displayedadeepstreakofrealism.
Atonepoint,Obamaremarkedthathewasnotthesortofpersonwhodrivesdownastreetwishinghecouldparkwhereverhelikes.Ifhesawanopenspot,evenonethatrequiredsometrickyparallelparking,
hewouldbefinewithsqueezingintoit.Obamasmeaningwasclear:hehadbeendealtabadhand(twounpopularwars,alienatedallies,thedeepestrecessionindecades),buthewouldfindawaytodealwith
theworldasitwas.
Sevenyearslater,manyofficersanddefenseofficials,includingsomewhoweresoimpressedwithObamaatthestart,lookbackathispresidencyasfollowingadifferentstyleofgoverning.Theylaudthe
historicaccomplishmentstheIrannucleardeal,theopeningtoCuba,theTrans-PacificPartnership,theprevention(sofar)ofanotherterroristattackonAmericansoilandtheyacknowledgethathehas
oftentriedtomakethebestofbadchoices.Buttoooften,theysay,hehasavoidedtakingaction,waitingforconditionstogetbettercirclingtheblockand,inhisownmetaphor,waitingforabetterparking
spottoopenup.
ThisisacommoncritiqueofObamasforeignpolicy:thatheevadesharddecisions,thatheisallergictomilitaryforceifitrisksAmericancasualtiesorescalation,thatthereisoftenamismatchbetweenhis
wordsandhisdeeds.Thisisapattern,oneretiredfour-stargeneralsaid.Heissuessternwarnings,thendoesnothing.ItdamagesAmericancredibility.
Isthechargetrue?Andtotheextentthatithassomevalidity,howmuchcanbelaidatObamasfeet,andhowmuchshouldbeattributedtotheintractabilityoftheproblemshehasfaced?Wouldadifferent
sortofpresidenthavehandledthedecadeschallengesbetter,andifso,how?
ThefollowingexaminationofkeycrisesanddecisionsisbasedonconversationsIhavehadwithdozensofofficialsacrossthespanofObamaspresidencyandwith20mid-tosenior-levelofficials(pastand
present,almostallonabackgroundbasis)interviewedspecificallyforthisarticle.
THELESSONOFLIBYA
InDecember2009,ObamajourneyedtoOslotoreceivetheNobelPeacePrize.Theawardwaspremature,tosaytheleast,butheusedhisacceptancespeechtolaydowntheprinciplesofaforeignpolicyhe
hopedtofollowasophisticatedgrapplingwiththetensionsbetweenidealismandrealism.ItwasadaringspeechforaPeacePrizerecipient.Tosaythatforcemaysometimesbenecessaryisnotacallto
cynicism,hesaid.Itisarecognitionofhistory,theimperfectionofman,andthelimitsofreason.Nationsmustadheretostandardsthatgoverntheuseofforce,andajust,lastingpeacemustbebasedon
theinherentrightsanddignityofeveryindividual.Still,Americacannotactalone,exceptonmattersofvitalnationalinterest,andmereloftyrhetoricabouthumanrightsonlysustainsacripplingstatusquo.
Engagementwithrepressiveregimesmaylackthesatisfyingpurityofindignation,butnorepressiveregimecanmovedownanewpathunlessithasthechoiceofanopendoor.
BenjaminRhodes,Obamasdeputynationalsecurityadviserforstrategiccommunications,said,Whenpeopleaskmetosummarize[Obamas]foreignpolicy,Itellthemtotakeacloselookatthatspeech.
AnotherformertopWhiteHouseofficialcalleditatemplatetohowheapproachesproblems,aframeworkforhowhethinksaboutU.S.power.Whetherhefollowedthetemplatehowhegrappledin
actionwiththetensionsherecognizedintheorywouldbe,byhisownstandard,themeasureofhispresidency.
TheearlyyearsofObamastermweretakenupwithchallengesinheritedfromtheBushadministration,especiallythewarsinAfghanistanandIraq.Atthestartof2011,however,astringofnewproblems
emerged,asdomesticprotestsagainstauthoritarianleadersbrokeoutacrosstheMiddleEast.TheBenAliregimeinTunisiafellinJanuary,andtheMubarakregimeinEgyptfollowedinearlyFebruary.Bylate
February,rebelsopposedtotheLibyandictatorMuammaral-QaddafihadseizedcontrolincitiessuchasBenghazi,andthedictatorsdaysseemednumbered.Butthenthetideofwarreversed,andQaddafis
forcesmovedtocrushtheuprising.

ObamaattheNobelPeacePrizeawardceremonyinOslo,December2009.
Withtensofthousandsofcivilianlivesatrisk,theObamaadministration,whichhadcomeoutinsupportoftherebels,facedadifficultchoice.ThemembersoftheArabLeaguewereunanimouslyimploring
theUnitedStatestogetinvolved.NATOallieswerekeentointerveneinsupportofthearmedrebels,andaUNSecurityCouncilresolutionwasintheworks.AtaNationalSecurityCouncilmeetingcalledto
discussthecrisis,SecretaryofStateHillaryClinton,U.S.AmbassadortotheUNSusanRice,andsomeofObamasNSCstaffarguedforaction,citingmoralimperativesandtheprospectofatrulymultilateral
force.Butaccordingtoseveralpeoplepresentatthemeeting,Pentagonofficialsopposedintervening,pointingoutthattheUnitedStateshadnovitalinterestsinLibyaandthatanyseriouscommitmentwould
getWashingtonboggeddown,possiblyforyears.
Twooptionsweresetbeforethepresident:goinallthewayastheleaderofanalliance,ordontgoinatall.Obamasresponsewastocomeupwithathirdway,whichemergedashethoughtthroughthe
problemoutloud.Earlyon,hearticulatedtheprinciplesthatwouldunderliewhatevercoursehechose:noU.S.bootsontheground,nomilitaryactionatallunlessithadalegalbasisandadecentchanceof
succeeding,and,finally,anappropriatedivisionoflaborwithalliestheU.S.militarywouldprovideitsuniquecapabilities(amongthemprecisionbombingandintelligencesharing),butU.S.allies,whohada
fargreaterinterestintheconflictsoutcome,wouldassumethebruntofprotectingLibyanciviliansandrestoringorderafterthefighting.
InaninterviewatthetimewithTheNewYorker,anObamaadviser(whoseidentityremainsunknown)dubbedthisapproachleadingfrombehind,atermthatwouldcomeinformuchderision.Butincontext,
itmadesense,anditfitObamasoutlookontheroleandlimitsofmilitaryforce,thedistinctionbetweeninterestsandvitalinterests,andtheneedtoaligntheinstrumentsofpowerwiththeintensityofthose
interests.
Thefirstphaseoftheresultingoperationwasultimatelyasuccess.ThecombinationofU.S.airstrikesandintelligence,NATOairsupport,andrebelmovementsonthegroundledtothedefeatofQaddafis
forcesand(althoughthiswasnotanexplicitaimofthecampaign)thekillingoftheLibyanleaderhimself.Butthesecondphasewasafailure:anewgovernmentwasneverfullyformed,therebelfactions
squabblesdegeneratedintocivilwar,andthecountryssocialorder(suchasitwas)collapsed.
TheproblemwasthattheNATOalliesthathadpromisedtoleadthestabilizationphaseofapost-QaddafiLibyadidnotfollowthrough,inpartbecausethisphaseturnedouttobemuchmoreviolentthanthey
hadanticipated.Restoring(or,really,creating)orderwouldhaverequiredarmedinterventionandpossiblyseriouscombatontheground,amissionforwhichEuropeanstateshadlittlecapacityandless
appetite.
Obamarecognizedthefailure,acknowledginginhisSeptember2015speechtotheUNGeneralAssembly,EvenaswehelpedtheLibyanpeoplebringanendtothereignofatyrant,ourcoalitioncouldhave
andshouldhavedonemoretofillavacuumleftbehind.AndthelessonweighedonhimwhenconsideringhowtohandleasimilarcrisisinSyria.

ZohraBensemra/REUTERSLibyanrebelsattheairportinMisrata,May2011.
THESYRIANSINKHOLE
AstheArabSpringevolved,demonstrationsbrokeoutinDamascusagainstSyrianPresidentBasharal-Assad.Assadstruckbackwithextremeforce,killingprotestersfirstbythehundreds,thenbythe
thousands.Gradually,arebelforcearose,andthecountryplungedintocivilwar.WiththeUnitedStateshavingalreadyintervenedinLibyaundersimilarcircumstances,thequestionnaturallyarosewhetherit
wouldinterveneinSyriaaswell.
InanNSCmeeting,Obamaspelledoutthedifferencesbetweenthetwoconflicts.Libyasfightinghadtakenplaceonanopendesert,whichallowedforcleartargetingSyriawasenmeshedinurbanwarfare,
withcivilians,rebels,andsoldiersintermingled.TheLibyanrebelshadhadachanceatformingacohesivegovernmenttherewerenosuchpossibilitiesinSyria.Nootheroutsidepowerwascallingonthe
UnitedStatestointervenethistimearound.Finally,theconflictwascascadingintoaproxywarfortheregionwideSunni-Shiiteconfrontation.NotonlydidtheUnitedStateshavelittleatstakeinthisfight,butit
alsohadlittleabilitytoinfluenceitsdirectionoroutcome.Accordingtoseveralattendeesofthemeeting,nobodyreallydisagreedwiththesepoints.
Andyettheadministrationhadaligneditselfwiththeseasonspopularuprisings.InMay,inaspeechofuncharacteristicexuberance,Obamalikenedtheturmoiltopreviouserasofdemocraticrevolution.He
spokewithparticularurgencyaboutSyria,proclaimingthatAssadmuststopshootinghisownpeopleandallowhumanrightsmonitorstoenterthecountry.InAugust,Obamajoinedwiththeleadersof
France,Germany,andtheUnitedKingdomincallingonAssadtostepdown.Syriasrulerwasonthewrongsideofhistory,Obamasaid,declaringthatthetimehascomeforPresidentAssadtostepaside.

Forthemostpart,ObamahasstayedtruetothetemplateofhisNobeladdress,keepingsightofthebigpictureasothershavegottenlostintheshrubs.
Suchrhetoricwasdrivenbytwofactors.First,theaidesinObamasinnercirclefewofwhomknewanythingaboutMiddleEasternpoliticsreallydidthinkAssadsregimewasnearingcollapse.Second,
giventhatapparentfact,theyfeltitwasbesttoputtheadministrationpubliclyontherightsideofhistory,especiallysincealliednationswerecallingonObamatoshowleadership.
Therhetoricwasnotentirelyempty.Obamadidaskhismilitaryandintelligencechiefstocomeupwithplanstospeedhistoryalong,andinthesummerof2012,CIADirectorDavidPetraeuslaidoutascheme
toarmagroupofmoderateSyrianrebels.Theplan,whichPetraeushadformulatedwithSaudiPrinceBandarbinSultanandafewotherArabsecuritychiefs,calledforshippingsmallarms,mainlyrifles,toa
small,selectgroupoftheSyrianopposition.PetraeusdidnotpromisethemoonheexplicitlysaidthattheserebelscouldnotoustAssadrightawayandthatthegoalwastoputpressureonAssad.Ifyoure
sayingAssadmustgo,hewastellingthepresident,hereshowtheCIAcanhelp.TheplanhadthebackingofClinton,SecretaryofDefenseLeonPanetta,andtheJointChiefsofStaff.Butthepresident
rejectedit.

GORANTOMASEVIC/REUTERS
AFreeSyrianArmyfighterinAleppo,August2012.
ObamawasnotopposedtotakingactionhehadaskedPetraeusandPanettaforoptions.Buthewasopposedtodoingsomethingmerelyforthesakeofdoingsomething,andthePetraeusplanseemedtofall
intothatcategory.Whoweretheserebels,heasked?CouldtheUnitedStatesreallydistinguishthegoodonesfromthebadones?(Petraeusinsistedthathecould,butObamawasunconvinced.)Iftheserebels
didemergeasathreattotheregime,wouldIran,whichhadinvestedheavilyinAssad,simplystandby,orwoulditintervene(asObamathoughtmorelikely)?
InNSCmeetings,severalattendeesrecall,PetraeusacknowledgedthatitmighttakeyearsfortherebelstomountaneffectivechallengetoAssadsrule.Meanwhile,theCIAsplanmightthrowAssad
psychologicallyandgiveWashingtonskininthegame,apathtoinfluenceoverthelonghaul.ThiswasnotawinningargumentwithObama:hewaslookingforsomethingthathadachanceofsucceedingin
thenearterm,andhedidnotwantskininagameplayedinthequagmireofasectariancivilwar.WhilePetraeuswasworkinguptheplan,ObamaaskedtheCIAtoproduceapaperonhowofteninthepast
U.S.armshadsucceededinhelpingrebelsousthostilegovernments.Theanswer:notveryoften.Thatsealedthecase.
Althoughgroundedinlogicandhistory,therejectionofinterventioninSyriasetoffthefirstwavesofdiscontentoverObamasforeignpolicyingeneralthenotionthathedidnotwanttouseforce,thathe
wasalwaysonthelookoutforargumentsthatrationalizedthisdisinclination,thathetalkedboldbutfailedtofollowthrough,whichmadeallhiscommitmentsringhollow.
Lateron,astheself-proclaimedIslamicState(alsoknownasISIS)tookcontrolofvastswathsofIraqandSyria,ObamascriticsarguedthatifonlythepresidenthadacceptedPetraeusplan,ISISmightnot
havefoundafoothold.Buttheclaimseemsfar-fetchedeventhoughafewofObamascloseadvisersallow,inretrospect,thatitmighthavebeenworthgivingPetraeusoptionachance.Inanycase,two
yearslater,Obamaapprovedasimilarplan.However,whentheAmerican-backedrebelsstartedrackingupvictoriesonthebattlefieldandappearedtobeclosinginonAssad,Obamaspredictionofwhatwould
happennextcametrue:theIraniansredoubledtheirsupportforAssad,sendingQudsForcesoldierstofighttherebels.AndRussianPresidentVladimirPutin,fearingthelossofMoscowssoleoutpostoutside
theformerSovietUnion,senttanks,planes,andmissilestosupporttheSyrianarmy.
REDLINE,REDFACE
SyriaiswhereObamasforeignpolicymetitsmostbrutalchallenge,andwherehistoolsfordealingwithcriseswords,logic,persistentquestions,andsequentialproblemsolvingprovedinadequate.
Atleastfivetimesintheeight-monthspanbetweenAugust2012andApril2013,ObamaoradministrationofficialspubliclywarnedAssadthatusingchemicalweaponsagainstrebelsandprotesterswouldcross
aredline.Itwouldmarkagamechangerfromourperspective,Obamaelaboratedononeoccasion.Therewouldbeenormousconsequences,hesaidonanother.Itwouldbetotallyunacceptable,and
Assadwouldbeheldaccountable.Yetdespitesuchutterances,saycloseaidesandofficials,thepresidentneverorderedupaplanforwhattodoifAssadcrossedtheline.
Then,onAugust21,2013,rocketshellscontainingsaringasslammedrebel-controlledareasintheDamascussuburbs,killinganestimated1,500people.Theredlinehadbeencrossed.Obamaswiftlydecidedto
retaliate.Attackplansweredrawnup,mostofthemdesignedtodestroynotthechemicalstockpilesthemselves(explosionsofwhichmightspreadthegasfarandwide)butratherthemunitionsandfacilities
requiredtolaunchthemintobattle.Assadsregimewasnottheexplicittargetinanyoftheseplans,butsomeWhiteHouseaidesthought,orhoped,thathisstrengthmighterodeasasideeffect.

PeteSouza/WhiteHouse/HandoutviaReuters
ObamameetswithnationalsecuritystafftodiscussthesituationinSyriaintheWhiteHouseSituationRoom,August2013.
Obamaseemedtobeseriousaboutlaunchingthestrikes.HisaideswereinstructedtophonelegislatorsandjournaliststomakesuretheyhadreadanunclassifiedintelligencereportthattheWhiteHousehadjust
releasedprovingthatAssadwasbehindthechemicalattacks.AUNresolutionbackingtheuseofforceinSyriawasunlikelyRussiaandpossiblyChinawouldvetoit.SoObamaralliedArabandNATOnations
tojoinintheattack,oratleasttoendorseit.Hegotnosuchsupport,exceptfromFranceandtheUnitedKingdombutthenBritishPrimeMinisterDavidCameronrequestedauthorizationforanattackfrom
Parliament,whichvoteditdown.
OnAugust31,theNSCmetformorethantwohours.EveryonearoundthetableagreedthattheUnitedKingdomsbackpedaling,althoughregrettable,shouldnotaffectthepresidentsdecisionandthathe
shouldproceedwiththeairstrikes.Ateamoflawyersadvisedhimthathehadthelegalauthoritytodoso.Afterthemeeting,however,ObamafamouslytookawalkontheWhiteHousebacklawnwithhis
chiefofstaff,DenisMcDonough,andwhenhecamebacktotheSituationRoom,heannouncedthathehaddecidedtoletCongressvoteonthequestion.
Allofthepresidentsaidesandofficialsweresurprised,andnotinagoodway.ButObamaexplainedthatheneededsomeinstitutionalbackingforsuchadrastic,riskymove.Abombingcampaignmightkill
nearbycivilians,anditmighthavenoimpactonAssad.WhatifAssaddoubleddownandlaunchedmoreattacks,chemicalorotherwise?IftheUnitedStatesansweredwithstillmoreairstrikes,itwouldrisk
gettingsuckedintoacivilwar,andifitdidnothing,thatwouldbeworsestill:Washingtonwouldlookweaker,andAssadwouldemergestronger,thaniftheUnitedStateshaddonenothingtobeginwith.Some
WhiteHouseaideshadviewedairstrikesasaone-offproposition,butPentagonofficialshadarguedduringtheNSCmeetingsthatifObamawentaheadwithairstrikes(whichtheysupported),heshouldbe
preparedforescalation.ObamasuspectedthePentagonwasright.Whateverhedid,hisactions(orinaction)wouldsirecriticismanddisunitytheywouldreceivelittlesupportandcouldnotbesustained.
Tomanyaroundthetable,eachseparatepieceofObamasargumentmadesense,buttheoveralllogicdidnot.Maybeitwasabadideatoproceedwithairstrikes,butinthatcase,Obamashouldnothave
drawnthoseredlines:heshouldnothaverecitedtherationaleforairstrikestosomanydiplomats,journalists,andlegislatorsheshouldnothavetoldSecretaryofStateJohnKerrytomakeacaseforthe
bombings(inapowerfulspeechjusthoursbeforehechangedcourse)andaftermakingthisnewdecision,hecertainlyshouldnothavegoneaheadwithascheduledprime-timetelevisionaddressinwhichhe
detailedAssadsperfidy,laidoutthenationalsecurityconcerns,claimedhehadthelegalauthoritytorespondwithunilateralairstrikesandthenannouncedthathewassendingthemattertoCongress.

Attimes,Obamahastalkedmoreboldlythanhehasacted,creatinganeedlessgapbetweenwordsanddeeds.
OneNSCofficialwhowasrelievedthatthestrikesdidnottakeplaceneverthelesssaid,Wepaidapriceforpullingback.TheperceptionamongpeopleintheregionwasthattheycouldntrelyonObamato
pullthetrigger.AformertopWhiteHouseofficialsaid,WhenpeopleseriouspeoplesayObamaisindecisiveanduncertain,theyretalkingaboutthisepisodewithSyria.
TheWhiteHouselobbiedCongresstopassaresolutionauthorizingtheuseofforce,butthetaskwasclearlyfutile:mostRepublicansdidnotwanttodoanyfavorsforObama,andmanyDemocratswereleery
ofmilitaryaction.Intheend,Russiacametotherescue.AtapressconferenceonSeptember9,KerrywasaskedifAssadcoulddoanythingtoavoidairstrikes.Kerryreplied,Sure,hecouldturnoverevery
bitofhis[chemical]weaponstotheinternationalcommunitywithinthenextweek,withoutdelay,adding,butheisntaboutto.Toeveryonesastonishment,RussianForeignMinisterSergeyLavrovreplied
thathecouldmakethathappenandhedid.UnderRussianpressure,Assadsurrenderedverynearlyallofhischemicalweaponsfordestruction.
Obamaandhisaidesdeclaredvictory,notingthatthisdiplomaticsolutionwasmoreeffectivethanmilitarystrikeswouldhavebeenandthatthethreatofthosestrikeswaswhathaddrivenRussiatopressure
Assad.Thefirstclaimwasprobablytruethesecondprobablywasnot.ThefactisCongressseemedcertaintodefeatObamasmotionbeforeRussiasteppedin.ItispossiblethatPutinneverbelievedthat
ObamawouldfeelboundbyCongress,thathewouldfindsomewaytolaunchthestrikesanyway.Butmorepertinent,Russianleadershavealwaystakenpainstokeepweaponsofmassdestruction
biological,chemical,ornuclearoutoftheirallieshands:notsomuchbecausetheyabhorthoseweaponsasbecausetheyabhorthelossofcontrol.Moscowhaditsowninterestsinstrippingtheloosecannon
Assadoftheseghastlyweapons,andsincetheredlinecrisishadforcedObamatofocusonthechemicalsandnotonAssadsregime,thediplomaticsavewouldserveoneofRussiasvitalintereststhe
preservationofMoscowsonlyfootholdintheMiddleEast.
THEISISCRISIS
Theredlinefiascowasalowpointintheadministrationsforeignpolicy,butthetroublesinSyriawerehardlyover.Lessthanayearafterthechemicalweaponssettlement,ISISwhichObamahadrecently
dismissedasaJVversionofalQaedastormedMosul,thesecond-largestcityinIraq.TheU.S.-trainedIraqisoldiersfledatfirstcontact,andthearmedjihadistsbarreledontoRamadiandFallujahand,fora
while,cameperilouslyclosetoBaghdad.
ThejihadistshadstartedoutandwerelargelybasedinSyria,butObamafocusedhisanti-ISISstrategyonIraqbecausethatswhereitmighthavesomeeffecttheUnitedStates,afterall,hadresources,air
bases,andapartnershipofsortswithafunctioninggovernmentinthecountryandithadnoneofthosethingsinSyria,whereObamaremainedproperlywaryofdivingintoasectariancivilwar.Evenby
September2014,whenObamarealizedthatSyriacouldntbeignored(itwas,afterall,theheadquartersofISISoperations,andheknewverywellthattheIraqi-Syrianborderwasporoustothepointof
meaningless),hestucktowhathisaidescalledanIraqfirststrategy.Americanairstrikes,whichhadlongbegunagainstISISforcesinIraq,wouldbeextendedtoSyria,butonlyoverthepathsthatISIS
usedtotravelbetweenthetwocountries.ObamaalsoannouncedaprogramtotrainandequipmoderateSyrianrebelsonbasesinSaudiArabiabutnotedthattheywouldntbereadytofightISISformany
monthsclearly,Syriawasonthebackburner,atbest.
DaysafterObamasannouncement,ISISlaidsiegetoKobani,amainlyKurdishtownontheSyrian-Turkishborder.Thetownhadnostrategicsignificance,butamassacrewasinthemaking.Morethanthat,
ISISwassendingthousandsofjihadistsintothetownforminganeasyconcentratedtarget,whichneitherthePentagonnorObamacouldresist.Obamaorderedmassiveairstrikes,whichkilledanestimated
2,000to3,000ISISfighters.

AnexplosioncausedbyanairstrikeinKobani,Syria,November2014.
Inanotherunexpectedfeatureofthebattle,KurdishfightersgatheredtostaveoffISIS,foughtverycapably,andrecapturedthetown.ObamahadnotbeenopposedtogoingafterISISinsideSyriahejusthad
notseenasuitablepartnerthatcouldcarryoutthefightontheground.IntheSyrianKurds,hefoundone,andU.S.airstrikescontinued,oftenintandemwithKurdishgroundassaults.Atthesametime,the
CIAstartedcovertlyassistingagroupofrebelsinsouthernSyriawhosemainaimwastooverthrowAssad.Again,ObamahadopposedPetraeusplantoarmsomerebelsnotbecausehewasagainstarming
rebelsbutbecausehedidnotseehowthatparticularplanorthoseparticularrebelswouldsucceed.Thenewplanseemedmoreplausible,inpartbecausetheCIAandtheU.S.militaryhadgatheredalotmore
intelligenceandscopedoutreliableforcesoverthepreviousyear.(Aseparate$500millionPentagonprogramtotrainandequipasmallgroupofnorthernSyrianrebelstofightISISprovedpubliclydisastrous:
therebelsturnedouttobemoreinterestedinfightingAssadsarmythanISIS,takingthemoutofthefighttotraininSaudiArabiaonlydisorientedthem,andmoremilitantrebelskilledalmostallofthemon
theirreentryintoSyria.)
Viewedpiecebypiece,tacticalmovebytacticalmove,Obamasoperationsappearedtobemakingprogress.Butforeignfighterskeptfloodingtheregion,ISISwasbarelybudgedaside,andalthoughAssads
armyseemedimperiled,itwasstillquitelarge(ataround125,000troops)andrecoveredmuchofitsstrengthafterRussiasentintanksandjetfightersinSeptember2015.Russiasmoveraisedthehacklesof
someofObamascritics,whosawPutinastryingtorevivetheSovietempire.Obamadidntbite,andwiselyso.AtanNSCmeeting,hecautionedagainstviewingRussiasinterventionthroughaColdWar
prism.WearenotatwarwithRussiaoverSyria,hesaid,accordingtoofficialswhowereatthemeeting.Putinsvitalinterestinthishadmuchtodowithhisowndomesticpolitics,andanalarmedAmerican
responsewouldhaveplayedintohisgame.Finally,ObamadoubtedthattheRussianmilitarycampaignwouldhavemuchimpactonthebattle.
Nonetheless,Obamawasstillreceptivetoattractiveoptionsforhisownmilitaryposture.TheSyrianKurdswererackingupmoresuccesses(andrequiringmoreprotectionfromTurkey,whichwaspounding
themwithairstrikeswhileclaimingtobegoingafterISIS),andsoObamaapprovedplanstosendtheKurdsmoreammunitionandtodeployU.S.SpecialForcestojointheminraidsonISISstrongholds,
secretmissionsthatresultedinsixfatalitiesbeforeObamaannouncedtheactionspublicly.
Obamahasakeenlegalmind,whichserveshimandthecountrywellwhenhepokesholesinspeciousargumentsforriskypolicies.Butitalsoenableshimtorationalizehisownporouspositions:forinstance,
thatconductingjointraidsfallsinthecategoryofadviseandassist,notbootsontheground.Hecanalsomakefirmassurancesthathewillnotpushthesegroundforcesanyfurther,ignoringthathehas
laidthegroundworkandsetthelogicforhissuccessorintheWhiteHousetoescalatethefight,ifheorsheissoinclined.(Nottodrawpreciseparallels,butinasimilarvein,PresidentJohnF.Kennedyfirmly
resistedpressurefromtheJointChiefsofStafftodeploycombattroopstoVietnamyetexpandedthescopeandnumbersofadvisersthere,leavingPresidentLyndonJohnsontobelievehewasfollowingin
hispredecessorsfootstepswhenhepoured500,000U.S.troopsintothefight.)

SyriaiswhereObamastoolsfordealingwithcrisesprovedinadequate.
UmitBektas/REUTERSAblackflagbelongingtoISISnearKobani,October2014.
THESEARCHFORORDER
WhathasbeenmissinginObamasSyriapolicy,inallitsphases,isacoherentstrategy.HistwoaimsdefeatingISISandpressuringAssadtostepdownareinsomewayscontradictory.Assadscontinued
reignhasbeenamagnetforforeignSunnifighterstojoinISIS.Butintheshortrun,Assadsarmy,ifproperlydirected,couldbethemostpotentanti-ISISforcesecondperhapsonlytoIran,whichhasbeen
sendingmembersofitseliteQudsForcetoprotectAssadsregime.ObamahasbeenconstrainedfromforminganovertalliancewithAssadorIran,inpartbecausehehasneededSunnialliesEgypt,Turkey,
andtheGulfstatestodelegitimizeanddefeattheSunniradicalsofISISifhebondedwithShiiteIranoritsclientAssad,thosecountriesmightdropoutofthecoalition.
ThereinliestheheartoftheproblemnotonlywithObamasstrategyagainstISISbutwithanyU.S.presidentsstabatsuchastrategy.IfallthecountriesthatfearedandloathedISISwhichistosay,almost
allthecountriesintheregionjoinedforces,ISISwouldcrumbleinshortorder.Buteachofthosecountrieshasmorefearandloathingforatleastoneofitspotentialallies(TurkeyfortheKurdsandSaudi
ArabiaforIran,forexample).ForminganeffectivecoalitionhasthereforebeenallbutimpossibleafactthatISIScommandershaveshrewdlyexploited.
AsmanyofObamascriticscontend,acoherentregionalstrategynotjustaseriesofpiecemealresponsestocrisesisneededtosolvethisproblem.Butwhatisthisregionalstrategy?Whoshouldleadit?
Whatincentivesmightlurethepotentialcoalitionsplayerstosubordinatetheirindividualintereststothelargergoal?(InOctober,ObamadroppedhisreluctanceandinvitedIranandRussiatojointalksinVienna
todiscussapoliticalsolutiontotheSyriancrisisandajointfightagainstISIS.Theprospectsseemeddim,untilontheveryeveoftheconferenceISISagentsmountedcoordinatedterroristattacksinParis.
Althoughtheoddsremainlong,aplausiblepathtoasettlementopenedup.Obamaseemstohaverecognized,alongwithothers,thattranscendingthesectariandivideratherthanaccommodatingitand
formingallianceswithrivalsagainstlarger,commonthreatsistheonlywaytowardapeacefultransition.)
ThesecomplexitiesaresymptomaticofalargerphenomenonthataccountsforthesurgeofviolencethroughouttheMiddleEast:thebreakdownofthecolonialorderimposedattheendofWorldWarI.This
order,withitsartificialbordersdesignedtosplitorsuppresstribalidentities,wouldhavecollapsedafterWorldWarII(alongwiththeBritishandFrenchcolonies)butforthedeepfreezeimposedbytheCold
War.WhentheSovietUnionimploded,theColdWartoodissolved,alongwiththeinternationalsecuritysystemthatithadcreatedandsustainedfornearlyhalfacentury.Withthesubsequentdiffusionofglobal
powerandfragmentationofpowerblocs,thecollapseoftheMiddleEastsbordersandauthoritiesresumedaprocessacceleratedbyPresidentGeorgeW.Bushs2003invasionofIraq,whichdisruptedthe
balanceofpoweramongnations,sects,andtribesthathadkeptanuneasypeacebetweenShiitesandSunnis,notonlywithinIraqbutacrosstheregion,asthedisruptionsripplesspread.
SomeofObamascriticsclaimthatifhehadfoundawaytokeep10,000AmericantroopsinIraqinsteadofgoingthroughwithacompletewithdrawalin2011,therenewalofsectarianviolenceandtheriseof
ISIStofillthesubsequentpowervacuumwouldneverhavehappened.Butthisisextremelyunlikely,giventhatinanearliereraittookcloseto170,000U.S.combattroopsusingextraordinarymeasuresto
stemasimilartide,andeventhentheywereabletodosoonlytemporarily.Inanycase,Obamahadnochoiceinthematter.Thestatus-of-forcesagreement(SOFA)thatBushsignedin2008demanded,Allthe
UnitedStatesForcesshallwithdrawfromallIraqiterritorynolaterthanDecember31,2011.Obamawas,infact,amenabletokeeping5,000troopsinIraqforthelonghaulandsentemissariestoBaghdadto
seeifanextensioncouldbenegotiated,butrevisionstotheSOFAincludingaU.S.demandthatAmericantroopsenjoyimmunityfromIraqilaw,requiredparliamentaryapproval,andnofactionsintheIraqi
parliament,exceptperhapstheKurds,wouldvotefortheAmericanstostay.(ObamahasbeenabletosendmilitaryforcesbacktoIraqonlybecausetheSOFAexpiredafterthreeyears.)
AsforAfghanistan,theotherwarthatObamapromisedandtriedtoend,itkeepsragingaswell.InOctober2015,reversinganearlierpolicytowithdrawallU.S.troopsfromthecountrybytheendofhis
term,Obamaannouncedthat5,500wouldremaintheretocontinuetrainingandequippingAfghanforcesandtoconductcounterterroristoperations.

BAZRATNER/REUTERSU.S.soldiersfireahowitzerartillerypieceinKandaharProvince,Afghanistan,June2011.
ObamaannouncedthischangesoonafterTalibanfighterstookoverthenortherncityofKunduz,buthehadmadethedecisionafewmonthsearlier,accordingtoaseniorcounterterrorismofficial.Thenew
Afghanpresident,AshrafGhani,hadaskedObamanottowithdrawallU.S.troops,signedabilateralsecurityagreementgivingU.S.forceslegalprotections(anaccordthathispredecessor,HamidKarzai,had
refusedtoconsider),andpromisedreformstobroadeninclusivityandcrackdownoncorruption.Meanwhile,terroristgroupsstillflourishedacrosstheborderwithPakistan.NooneintheNSCopposed
sustainingacounterterroristforceonsomebaseintheregionherewasGhaniofferingthreeexistingbases.AninteragencystudyconductedbyGeneralMartinDempsey,thenthechairmanoftheJointChiefs
ofStaff,concludedthatthemissioncouldbesupportedwith5,500troops.Andsothedecisionwasmade.Kunduz(whichAfghansoldiersquicklyrecaptured)wasthenewspegthatpreemptedpolitical
objections.
ThetragedyofObamaspresidencyisthat,fromthebeginning,hehaswantedtoshiftawayfromthestagnantbattlefieldsinandaroundtheMiddleEastanddevotemoreattentiontotheAsia-Pacificregion,
withitsprospectsfordynamicgrowth,trade,and,intheformofChina,anexpansionistpowerthatneedstobeatoncecontainedmilitarilyandluredintotheglobaleconomy.ThisfocusonAsiacametobe
calledthepivot,orrebalancing,butObamahadrecognizeditsappealanddiscusseditasfarbackashis2008presidentialcampaign.Heunderstood,andstilldoes,thatthisiswheretheUnitedStatesfuture
interestsliebutthenever-endingcrisesoftheancientworldkeeppullinghimbackin.
LIMITEDINTERESTS,LIMITEDRISKS
AstheISISimbrogliowidened,yetanothercrisiserupted,thistimeinUkraine.AfterPutinbribedUkrainianPresidentViktorYanukovychwithanaidpackagetostophimfromsigninganassociationagreement
withtheEuropeanUnion,popularprotestsbrokeoutinKiev.WhenYanukovychcrackeddown,theprotestswidened,andhewasultimatelyforcedtoflee.PutinrespondedbysendingRussianforcestoseize
theCrimeanPeninsulaandsupportasecessionistrebellionineasternUkraine.
InNSCmeetingsheldtodecidehowtorespondtoRussiasmove,Obamaquicklyapprovedascriptofdenunciation,reinforcementsofU.S.militaryexercisesinandaroundeasternEuropesNATOallies
(especiallytheBalticstates),andastringofeconomicsanctions.
SomePentagonofficialswantedtogofurtherandsupplytheUkrainianarmywithlethaldefensiveweapons,especiallyTOWantitankmissiles.AccordingtoNSCofficials,VicePresidentJoeBidenstrongly
endorsedthisposition,sayingthattheUnitedStateshadamoralobligationtohelptheUkrainiansdefendthemselves,aswellasastrategicinterestinmakingPutinpayforhislandgrabandindeterringhimfrom
goingfurther.(NooneinanyNSCmeeting,however,advocatedsendingUkraineoffensiveweaponsordeployingU.S.troopstothecountry.)

CemOksuz/Pool/REUTERS
ObamatalkswithRussianPresidentVladimirPutinandU.S.NationalSecurityAdviserSusanRiceduringtheG20Leaders'SummitinAntalya,Turkey,November2015.
Intheend,Obamaapprovedtheprovisionofnonlethalmilitaryassistance,suchasnight-visionandradarequipment,andtrainingforUkrainesNationalGuard.Beyondthat,hewasopposed.TheUnitedStates
hadinterestsinUkraine,butnotvitalinterests.Therewerereasonstwopreviouspresidentshadconsidered,thendecidedagainst,invitingKievsleaderstojoinNATO.First,pollshadsuggestedthatlessthan
halfofUkrainianswantedmembership.Second,RussiasinterestsinUkraine,unliketheUnitedStates,werevital:RussiaandUkrainesharedaborderandalonghistoryoftrade,culturalexchange,andeven
commonstatehood.NoRussianleaderwouldstandbyasUkrainedriftedtoofarfromMoscowsorbit.
Obamalikestolookaheadtwoorthreesteps.(Hiscriticshaveseenthisasatechniqueforavoidingtheuseofforceothersseeitasamethodofrationaldecision-making.)Moscowcouldandwouldmatchor
surpassanylethalweaponsthattheWestsuppliedtoKiev.Thenwhat?IfWashingtonsentstillmorearms,itwouldriskgettingsuckedintoanarmsrace,andtheviolencewouldintensify.IftheUnitedStates
didnotrespondinkind,theWestwouldhavelostthecontestObamawouldlookweaker,andRussiastronger,thanifhehadnotsentanyarmsinthefirstplace.
ThiswasObamasfirstprincipleinalldiscussionsaboutthecrisis:hewasnotgoingtoriskawarwithRussiaforthesakeofUkraine.Atonemeeting,hesaid,IfIwantedtoinvadeCanadaorMexico,noone
coulddomuchaboutit.ThesamewastrueofPutinandUkraine.
Still,Obamaputahighvalueonenforcinginternationalnorms,oneofwhichwastheinviolabilityofborders.HefeltitnecessarytomakeRussiapayforitsviolationthequestionwashow.Militaryescalation,
 inthiscontext,wasagameRussiawouldwin,butescalationofsanctionswasonetheUnitedStatescouldwin,ifObamacouldkeepEuropeanstatesonboard.Thiswasachallenge,formanyEuropean
countriesweremorereliantonRussianenergysuppliesthantheUnitedStateswasandthereforemorevulnerabletoeconomicreprisalsfromRussia.TheywerealsodeadsetagainstriskingwaroverUkraine.If
Obamawentupthemilitaryladder,heknewtheywoulddropoutofthesanctionsregime.

Obamaskeenlegalmindallowshimtorationalizehisownporouspositions.
Atleastthroughthefallof2015,Obamaspolicyhasworked.DespitePutinseffortstosplitthetransatlanticalliance,itsmembershaveheldtightonthesanctions,andthecease-firenegotiatedinMinskin
Februaryhasheld,too.PutinslikelygoalinUkrainewastoweakenthecountryscentralgovernmentandkeepitfrommovingclosertotheWest.Atthat,hehassucceeded.IfObamaandthewestern
Europeannationshadwantedtostrikebackonthatfront,tensofbillionsofdollarsineconomicaidwouldhavemeantalotmorethanafewhundredantitankmissiles.ButbeyondarelativelypaltryInternational
MonetaryFundgrant,nooneseemedtowanttogodownthatroad.
PATIENCEANDPRAGMATISM
SohowdoesObamasrecordstackup?Thepresidenthasbeenbesiegedbyforeignpolicycrises,constrainedbydiminishedAmericanpower,andpressuredbyopponentsathomeandalliesabroadtotake
actionandshowleadership,evenwhendealingwithintractableproblems.Hehaslearnedonthejob,withhisinstinctsforcautionreinforcedbytheill-fatedLibyanintervention.Andhehas,attimes,talked
moreboldlythanhehasacted,creatinganeedlessgapbetweenwordsanddeeds.
Andyetforthemostpart,hehasstayedtruetothetemplateofhisNobeladdress,keepingsightofthebigpictureasothershavegottenlostintheshrubs.Hiscautionaboutembarkingonunnecessarymilitary
adventuresanddesiretoavoidescalatorymilitaryspiralsseemwise.Obamahasalsoprovedremarkablypatientwithdrawn-outdiplomaticnegotiations,eventhoseunlikelytobearfruit.Someofthese,suchas
theIsraeli-Palestinianpeacetalks,havepredictablygonenowhere,butothers,suchastheopeningtoCubaandthenucleardealwithIran,havebeenstrikinglysuccessful.
Thesuccessesandfailuresstem,inpart,fromthedoggedoptimismofObamassecond-termsecretaryofstate,Kerry.ItisdoubtfulthatKerrysmorecautiouspredecessor,Clinton,ormostotherpast
secretariesofstate,wouldhavestuckwiththenucleartalkswithIranforaslongasKerrydidbutneitherwouldshehavespentsomuchtimeandefforttryingtojump-startamoribundMiddleEastpeace
process.
OnedownsidetoKerrysvisionofhisjob,asspecialenvoytotheworldsmosthopelesslogjams,isthatitleavesmuchoftherestoftheworldabitanxious.ThishasbeenespeciallytrueoftheUnitedStates
alliesinAsiamostofallJapan,whoseleadersdemandconstanthandholding.DuringObamasfirstterm,KurtCampbell,theassistantsecretaryofstateforEastAsianandPacificaffairs,phonedhis
counterpartinTokyoeverydayandmetface-to-facewiththeJapaneseambassadorthreetimesaweek.OfficialswhodealwithAsianaffairssaythatafterCampbellleft,andKerryturnedtheState
Departmentsfocusalmostexclusivelytohigh-profilepeacemissions,Tokyofeltabandoned.
Still,thishardlyamountedtoacrisis.First,whenBeijingstartedflexingitsnavalmusclesintheSouthChinaSea,Japan(andAustraliaandSouthKorea)clungeverclosertoWashington,howeverfrustratedit
feltattimes.Second,anotherbigpartoftheUnitedStatesrelationswithAsiainvolvessimplyshowingupandalthoughtheassistantsecretarymaynotbecallingasoften,ObamaandKerryshowupatallthe
Asiansecurityandeconomicsummits.Anxietyaboutabandonmentremainsithasbeenafactorfordecades,atleastsincetheUnitedStatespulledoutofVietnamandsecretlyreachedouttoChinaduringthe
presidencyofRichardNixon.ButObamasmissteps,whichhavebotheredalliesintheMiddleEast,havenotweighedatallonthoseinEastAsia.DanielSneider,theassociatedirectorforresearchattheWalter
H.ShorensteinAsia-PacificResearchCenteratStanfordUniversity,hasmetprivatelywithdozensofpoliticalandmilitaryleadersfromJapanandSouthKorea.Hesays,Iveneverheardanyofthemsaya
wordabouttheredlineinSyria.
OnAugust5,2015,thepresidentdeliveredaspiritedspeechatAmericanUniversitydefendingthenucleardealthatheandfiveotherworldpowershadnegotiatedwithIran.Severaltimes,hequotedKennedys
famousAmericanUniversityspeechin1963callingforanendtotheColdWarmindsetandanewstrategybasedonapracticalandattainablepeace,onebasednotonasuddenrevolutioninhumannature
butonagradualevolutioninhumaninstitutionsonaseriesofconcreteactionsandeffectiveagreements.
Laterthatday,Obamaheldanon-the-recordroundtablediscussionwithtencolumnistsintheWhiteHouse.Whenmyturncametoaskaquestion,InotedthatKennedyhaddeliveredhisspeechafterseveral
crisesinwhichherealizedthathisadviserswereoftenwrongandthatheshouldplacemoretrustinhisowninstincts.Whatlessons,IaskedObama,hadhelearnedinhiscrises?Whatdecisionsmighthehave
madedifferently,hadheknownthenwhatheknowsnow?Heanswered:
IwouldsaythatIhavebeenconsistentinmybroadviewofhowAmericanpowershouldbedeployedandtheviewthatweunderestimateourpowerwhenwerestrictittojustourmilitarypower...
.Theresnodoubtthat,aftersixandahalfyears,IamthatmuchmoreconfidentintheassessmentsImakeandcanprobablyseearoundthecornersfasterthanIdidwhenIfirstcameintooffice.
Themapisntalwaystheterritory,andyouhavetokindofwalkthroughittogetafeelforit.
IntermsofdecisionsImake,IdothinkthatIhaveabettersenseofhowmilitaryactioncanresultinunintendedconsequences.AndIamconfirmedinmybeliefthatmuchofthetime,weare
makingjudgmentsbasedonpercentages,and...therearealwaysgoingtobesomecomplications.
AndsomaybeatthesametimeasImmoreconfidenttoday,Imalsomorehumble.Andthatspartofthereasonwhy,whenIseeasituationlikethisone[thepossibilityofanucleardealwith
Iran],wherewecanachieveanobjectivewithaunifiedworldbehindusandwepreserveourhedgeagainstitsnotworkingout,Ithinkitwouldbefoolisheventragicforustopassuponthat
opportunity.
ThisarticlehasbeenupdatedtocorrectthedatethatPresidentObamadeliveredaspeechabouttheIrannucleardealatAmericanUniversity.ItwasAugust5,2015,notApril5.

 From: MartinDewhirst<martin.dewhirst@googlemail.com>
Senttime: 01/04/201601:30:26PM
Bob<robertotto25@gmail.com>WayneandStacyAllensworth<swallen@1scom.net>JohnBDunlop<john.dunlop@stanford.edu>JohnB
To:
Dunlop<john.dunlop3@gmail.com>
Subject: Fwd:2016-#2-Johnson'sRussiaList

WhatPavlovskyissayinginitem5isveryreminiscentofwhathesaid
inLondonacoupleofmonthsago.I'msorryIwastoobusytowriteit
up.(BothheandBelkovsky[whowasdrunk]madeamostunpleasant
impression.)
M.

--------ForwardedMessage--------
Subject:2016-#2-Johnson'sRussiaList
Date:Mon,4Jan201614:23:16-0500(EST)
From:DavidJohnson
Reply-To:davidjohnson@starpower.net
To:martin.dewhirst@gmail.com

Havingtroubleviewingthisemail?Clickhere

Johnson'sRussiaList
2016-#2
4January2016
davidjohnson@starpower.net
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http://archive.constantcontact.com/fs053/1102820649387/archive/1102911694293.html

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*"Wedon'tseethingsastheyare,butasweare"*

*"Don'tbelieveeverythingyouthink"

Youseewhatyouexpecttosee*

*/DJ:JRLwillbeoffthenextcoupledays./*

*Inthisissue*
TODAY<#LETTER.BLOCK4>
1.RFE/RL:HardTimes:FiveRussians'Hopes,FearsFor2016.
<#LETTER.BLOCK5>
2.WorldEconomicForum:Whichcountryhasthemostengineering
graduates?<#LETTER.BLOCK6>
3.Gazeta.ru:Russia's2015agendadominatedbyforeignpolicyover
internalissues.(editorial)<#LETTER.BLOCK7>
4.KomsomolskayaPravda:Russia'seconomicministercautiously
optimisticinyear-endinterview.(AlekseyUlyukayev)<#LETTER.BLOCK8>
5.Gazeta.ru:Russianpunditviewscurrentregime,likelyfuture
scenarios.(GlebPavlovskiy)<#LETTER.BLOCK9>
6.Sputnik:WeakRubletoHelpRussiaWithstandLowOilPrices.
<#LETTER.BLOCK10>
7.Sputnik:RussiaOilOutputRisestoNewRecordHighin2015.
<#LETTER.BLOCK11>
8.TheNationalInterest:NikolayPakhomov,TheTruthAboutSanctions
AgainstRussia.Westernsanctionshavefailedtodelivera'devastating
blow'buttheyalsoseemheretostay.<#LETTER.BLOCK12>
9.RussiaDirect:YuriBarmin,WhattoexpectfromRussia'sSyriapolicy
in2016.MoscowhasbeenrelyingonhardpowerinSyriaoverthelast
threemonthsandrisksfallingintoatrapofover-relianceonitnext
year.Whilethisstrategyhasyieldedsomeresults,suchasengagingthe
U.S.-ledcoalitionintomoredecisivetalks,in2016thesameapproach
islikelytoproveitsinefficiency.<#LETTER.BLOCK13>
10.TheUnzReview:TheSaker,WeekThirteenoftheRussianIntervention
inSyria:DebunkingtheLies.<#LETTER.BLOCK14>
11.TheNationalInterest:ThomasFedyszyn,WhatRussiaSaidAboutNATO
andWhyItMatters.<#LETTER.BLOCK15>
12.TheUnzReview:AnatolyKarlin,CollapseofUkraine'sEconomyin
FiveCharts.<#LETTER.BLOCK16>
13.Sputnik:Over400,000UkrainiansReadytoIntegrateIntoRussian
Society.<#LETTER.BLOCK17>
14.www.rt.com:Crimeansvotetogiveupelectricitycontractwith
Ukraineevenifitmeansmorepowercut-offs.<#LETTER.BLOCK18>
15.Forbes.com:KennethRapoza,RussiaGivesUkraineABreakOnFuel
Costs,ButPricesLikelyGoingLowerAnyway.<#LETTER.BLOCK19>
16.www.thedailybeast.com:AnnaNemtsova,Khodorkovsky:FromRussian
Multi-Billionaireto'Murderer'?Putinjusthatesthisguy.Jailedfor
morethanadecade,thenforcedintoexile,theformerheadofYukosoil
isnowchargedwithmurder.<#LETTER.BLOCK20>
17.TheKremlinStooge:MarkChapman,TheUnbearableUnseemlinessof
Partnership.(reJimHoagland)<#LETTER.BLOCK21>
18.Medium:DominicBasulto,WhatRussiawantsin2016:Anewworld
order.<#LETTER.BLOCK22>
19.TheAtlantic:JeffreyTaylor,TheWorldAccordingtoRussia.A
documentaryonstatetelevisiongivesaglimpseofVladimirPutin's
philosophy.<#LETTER.BLOCK23>
20.SicSemperTyrannis:DavidHabakkuk,Analternativeforeignpolicy.
<#LETTER.BLOCK24>
21.Consortiumnews.com:GilbertDoctorow,HearingtheRussian
Perspective.<#LETTER.BLOCK25>

#1
RFE/RL
January3,2016
HardTimes:FiveRussians'Hopes,FearsFor2016
byTomBalmforth

MOSCOW--2015hasbeenatoughyearformanyRussians.Theeconomyhas
beenmiredinrecession.Draggeddownbyoilprices,therublehas
languishednearrecordlows.Thecostofatypicaltripabroadhas
doubledinrubleterms,andU.S.andEUsanctionsoverMoscow's
interferenceinUkrainehaveincreasedRussia'sisolation.TheKremlin's
retaliatorybanhassweptmanyWesternfoodsofftheshelvesanddriven
inflationup,whilesalariesaredown.

RFE/RLspoketofiveMuscovitesfromdifferentwalksoflifeabouttheir
experiencesthisyear,andtheirhopesandfearsfor2016.Here'swhat
theysaid:

TatyanaZaugolnova,29
Ownsandrunsanonlinecosmeticsshop,MyGreenStyle,withastaffofsix

"Onaday-to-daylevel,I'venoticedofcoursethatgroceriesaremuch
moreexpensive,especiallyfish,whichnowcoststwotimesmorethanI
wasusedto.Travelinghasalsogottentwiceasexpensive.Ifayearago
IcouldtakemyrucksackandheadofftoEuropefortheweekend,
nowadaysIsitheretotingupthecostsandthendon'tgobecause
everythinghasbecomereallyexpensive.

"Businesshasgottenharder.ThecostofEuropeancosmeticshasdoubled
--andmorethandoubledinthecaseofsomeproducers.Demand,
correspondingly,hasfallen.It'sbeenabiteasierwithRussian
cosmetics,whichhavegotten20-30percentmoreexpensiveandtherefore
seemlikeabetterdealincomparisonwithEuropeanbrands.Ingeneral,
though,ofcourse,salesarefalling.

"I'vedecidedtotryandbringdownexpenses--torentlessoffice
spaceandhavestaffworkremotely.Let'sseewhathappens.Ihopethere
willbearesultandwe'llsurvivethiscrisis,aswedidtheothers.

"Ihavethefeelingthatwe'vepassedthepeakofthecrisisandthat
theeconomyhasbeenrestructuredwithanorientationtowarddomestic
producers.Russianproducershavereceivedgoodstimulusbecauseofthe
sanctionsandtherateofthedollar.Theexampleofcosmeticshasshown
methis--Russiancosmeticshaven'trisenincostasfastasforeign
ones,sotheyremainpopular.

"Ihope,ofcourse,thatthecomingyearwillbeeasierthanthisone
andthateverythingstabilizes.Attheveryleast,Iwouldlikethereto
bestability.Thesejumpsinthedollarandeuroreallyaffectprices.
It'sreallydifficulttopredicthowmuchIwillspendinthenextmonth.

"Whataremyfears?MybiggestfearisthatI'llhavetoclosemyshop.
Thesituationatthemomentisquitedifficult.Ireallyhopethatmy
strategyofloweringcostswillworkandIwon'thavetoclose.My
biggestfearisthatI'llhavetoclosetheshop."

VladimirSkiba,65
Pensioner,teachesmusic

"Ithinkanyonewhohasaprofessionofsomesortcanworkinaddition
totheirpension.Especiallypeoplewhoaremusiciansorworkinculture
andcandosomethinglikeplay,write,compose--thesepeoplecanfind
useforthemselves.

"Iwouldn'tsay[theeconomicdownturn]hashadabigeffectorbeen
verynoticeable.Ifindoutaboutitmorefromthemedia.Ihadn'tbeen
planninginthenearfuturetoimprovemylivingstandards,tobuyan
expensivecar.Asfordailylife,Ihaven'tnoticedabigimpacton
groceryprices.

"Irememberthe1990swell.Itwasmuchmoredifficultandmuchworse.I
rememberthedefaultandevenrememberwhenIwasreallysmall,under
[SovietleaderNikita]Khrushchev,whentherewereawfulqueuesfor
basicproductslikebreadandbutter.The1990swerealsoadifficulttime.

"Incontrast,Iamawareofthiscrisismorethroughthemedia,the
televisionandthenewspaper,andinconversations.Therearetimeswhen
peoplecomeuptoyouandaskformoney,butinthoseyears,itwasall
alotmoreevidentrightinfrontofyoureyes.

"Ithinkwe'vealreadypassed[thepeakofRussia'seconomictroubles]
andthatpriceshavestabilized.

"Myhopeisthateveryone'slifewillreallygetbetter--thatpeople
won'thavetocountthekopeksandthattheywillbeabletobuywhat
theywant.Notallpensionersareabletoworktosupplementtheirpension.

"It'snotlikeinsomeWesterncountries.Ihavealotoffriendsabroad
andI'veoftennoticedthatthingsarealotbetterthoughtoutfor
people[there],especiallypeopleofapensionage.Asforfears,there
isn'tanything--I'msurethateverythingwillbecomenormal."
SvyatKozlov,52
Formerfurniturerestorer,ondisabilitypension

"Theeconomiccrisishasreallyhadaneffectonmylifeasapensioner.
Oneortwoyearsago,mypensionwastheequivalentof$300or$400.
Now,becauseofthecrisisandallthis,ourpensionshavebecomea
hundredandsomethingdollars.That'slikeinChina.Itisveryhard,in
practice,toliveonahundredandsomethingdollars.Groceriesare
gettingmoreespensive.

"Thesanctionsweredeclaredagainst[RussianPresidentVladimir]Putin.
TheywerenotimposedagainstthepeopleofRussia,butagainstthe
friendsofPutin.Butsothatwecouldalllivehappily,Putinmadeit
sothatwecan'tbuyfoodfromothercountries.Wedon'thaveourown
productsinRussia.SonowwearerejectingTurkishproductsandsoonwe
willrejectsomeothercountries'products.Asaresult,we'llsoonbe
givenrationcardsforfood,likeatthebeginningofperestroika.

"Howcanwesaythatthepeakofthecrisisispastuswheninthelast
fewyears,smallbusinessinthiscountryhaspracticallybeentotally
destroyed?Inthelasttwoyears,smallenterpriseshavebeenclosingon
amassivescale.Around100,000or200,000smallbusinesseshaveclosed
inthepastyear.Onlybigoligarchscansurvive,thankstostealingour
gasandoil.It'senoughtodrive100kilometersoutsideMoscowandit's
evidentimmediatelythatthisisapoorcountry.Thiscrisiswill
continueforalong,longtime.

"MyhopeisthattheWesterncountrieswillremovetheir[sanctions].My
fearisthatwewillendupinanotherwar.Russiahasbeenfightingin
Ukraine.RussiaisfightinginSyria.Russiaineffectdeclaredwaron
theIslamicState--wedeclaredwaronthem,notthemonus.Sothere
isthefearthatthewarcouldcometoourterritory."

YekaterinaKondratyeva,28
TVjournalist

"I'vehadtotakeoutaloanwithanelevatedratetobuyacar.Before,
Icouldbuythecarwithaloanata15percentinterestrate,butnow
it'spractically20percent.There'stravel,aswell.IfIflytoEurope
andpayineurosanddollars,theneffectivelyIhavehalfasmuchmoney
asIdidbefore.Withgroceries,Ihaven'treallyfeltthiscrisismuch.
Yes,they'vegotabitmoreexpensive,butIdon'treallyfeelitthatmuch.

"Overall,I'vefeltthecrisishereandthere,butthisisthefirst
timeI'venoticedfinancialchangesinmylife.Maybethat'sbecause
thisisthefirsttimeI'vehadloanstopayoff.Inpastcrises,I've
neverfeltthembecauseIhaven'thadaloanbefore.Idon'tthinkwe've
reachedthepeakofthecrisis.Idon'tknowifit'sgoingtobebetter
orworse,butIdon'tthinkthecrisisisgoinganywhere.

"Idon'thaveanyfears[about2016].Idon'tthinkitwillbevery
scary.Somethingcouldhappeninbroadtermsinthecountry,butIdon't
worryaboutmyselfverymuch.IthinkI'llbejustfine.

"Myhopes--Ihopethingsgetbetter,ofcourse,thatthecrisiswill
endinthenextyearortwoandthateverythingwillbelikeitwas
before,orevenbetter.I'manoptimistinlife!"

DmitryKlimanov,29
Self-employedinsurancesalesman

"Theinsurancebusinessiscurrentlyinquiteadifficultsituation.I
workincarinsuranceandinsuranceforconstructionequipment.The
situationisthatcarsaleshavefallenandthecostofsparepartshas
risen.It'sgottenhardertofindclients.That'sthefirstthing.

"Thesecondisthatcompanieshavestartedtofeelbad.Asaresult
therehavebeensomeproblemswithsettlinginsuranceclaims.Ithasa
negativeimpact.Clientsarelosingtrustininsurersabit.Inshort,
thisisanegativeenvironment.Butthereisalsoanoppositetrend--
peoplehavestartedtofearlosingtheirproperty.Acarcrashwillcost
21/2tothreetimesmorethanbefore.Sparepartscostmore,andpeople
wanttoinsurethemselves.

"Idon'tworkinacompany.SinceIworkformyself,Idon'thavea
fixedsalary,sothereisacertainfearaboutwhat'sgoingtohappenin
thefuture.Anotherthingisthattravelhasbecomesignificantlymore
expensive.Beforethecrisis,IwasintheMaldives,butthistimeI
wenttotheDominicanRepublicbecauseit'scheaper.Nextyear,Idon't
evenknowwhereit'sworthgoingbecauseeverything'smoreexpensive.
Maybeitwouldbeeasiertobuildanother'banya'[bathhouse]atthe
dachaandtakeavacationoutthere.

"The[economicproblems]arestillgrowing.Iseethisatwork.That
companiesareclosingisafact,andtheywillcontinuetoclose.There
isnogrowth.Manyheldonuntiltheend.Manyofmycolleaguesare
leavingthemarkettoworkinanofficebecausetheywantstability.

"Thingsaresimplerforme.Inprofessionalterms,Ihavehope.My
friendshavefearsthattheircompanieswillcloseorcuttheirsalaries
andsoon.Myfearsstemfromthefactthatit'snotclearwhatwill
happeninthefuture.Therearefearsthattherewillbearisein
crime.Therehavebeencases,forinstance,ofcartheft,andof
headlightsorwingmirrorsgettingstolen.Thebiggestfear,Isuppose,
isthatsomeonewillhityouovertheheadtotakeyourphone."
[returntoContents]<#n0>

#2
WorldEconomicForum
http://agenda.weforum.org
September17,2015
Whichcountryhasthemostengineeringgraduates?
ByJoeMyers
[Charthere
http://agenda.weforum.org/2015/09/which-country-most-engineering-manufacturing-and-construction-gr
aduates/

Adiverseandhighlyskilledpooloftalentisakeydriverofeconomic
growth,allowingeconomiestomakethemostoftheirhumancapital.

TheWorldEconomicForum'sHumanCapitalReport2015providesdatafor
124economiesacrossarangeofindicators,includingthenumberof
graduatesinengineering,manufacturingandconstruction.

TheRussianFederationtopsthelistwithnearlyhalfamillion
graduatesayearinthefield.TheUnitedStatesfollowsinsecond,with
Irancompletingthetopthree.

Aminimumof100,000graduatesareneededannuallytomakethetop10,
highlightingthepopularityofthefield.

ThedataforthisrankingistakenfromtheUNESCOInstituteforStatistics.
[returntoContents]<#n0>

#3
Gazeta.ru
December29,2015
Russia's2015agendadominatedbyforeignpolicyoverinternalissues
Editorial,Russiawentabroad.Howwilltheoutgoingyeargodownin
history?

Itisobviousthat,fromthemomentoftheaccessionoftheCrimea,
Russiaenteredapivotalhistoricalperiod.Howhistorianswillassess
thisperiodincenturiestocomeisdifficulttopredict-aperiodis
pivotalpreciselyinthatitcanstillswingthecountryinone
directionorinanother.Theoutgoingyearof2015wasinthissensenot
ground-breaking-rather,itconsolidatedthenew,fluid,post-Crimean
realityinwhichmoreeventshappeninayearthaninthedecadeofthe
satedandtranquilnaughties.

Themaininstrumentofthepastyearwastherefusaltocompromise-
especiallywhenitcametointernalconsumption.WhatPutinandKerry
actuallyspendfivehoursdiscussing,whattalksLavrovholdsashe
wheelsabouttheworld,andwhatMedvedevreachesagreementon,orfails
toreachagreementon,inChinaisunimportant.Themainthingisthat
RussiancitizensshouldknowthatourproudVaryagisnotgivinginto
theenemy[allusiontothebest-knownlinefroma1904songdevotedto
heroismofthecrewoftheRussiancruiserVaryagdisplayedinthe
BattleofChemulpoBayintheRussian-Japanesewar].

Compromise,negotiations,mutualconcessions-inpublicperception,all
thishasbecomethelotoftheweak.

Whodareswins-thisisourdiplomacy,relayedfromthetopand
willinglyacceptedatthebottom.Itsapotheosiswasthethreat"you
won'tgetawaywith[justtheRussianbanontheimportationofyour]
tomatoes"addressedtoTurkeythatwasmadepublicbythepresidentin
hismessagetotheFederalAssembly.

Inthesameway,thestateonceandforallshookoffthedesiretocome
totermswithanyoneininternalpoliticsalso.Threeyears'
imprisonmentforasolitarypicket,newjailsentencesundertheold
"Bolotnayacase"[againstoppositionactivistsarrestedforprotesting
onBolotnayaPloshchadin2012],thearrestinabsentiaof
Khodorkovskiy,thehousearrestforthedirectoroftheUkrainian
library[NataliyaSharina,directoroftheLibraryofUkrainian
LiteratureinMoscow,whoisaccusedofincitingethnichatred],andat
thesametime,totaldisregardforpublicinvestigationsintocorruption
inpower,areanotherimportanthallmarkoftheoutgoingyear.

Debatinganddiscussingtopicalproblems-betheytheproblemsof
importreplacement,themanagementcrisisinCrimea,orthetruckers'
protests-arealsonolongerpartoftheinternalagenda.Discussions,
reflections,andthesearchforacompromisehavebeenreplacedwith
slogansandlabels.Hewhoisnotwithus,isagainstus.

Gonearesemitones,allowances,andtheanalysisofthesituationfrom
varioussides.Politicianshaveseeminglyforgottenthatacomplex
situationdoesnothaveasingleprimecause.Thereisalwaysarangeof
currentactions,inactions,andcircumstances.Accordingly,aproblem
mustalsobetackledbyarangeofmeasures,andnotinonefellswoop.
Butintheoutgoingyear,itwaspreciselythetacticofsimple
explanationsandsimplesolutions-whichareinfactnosolutionsat
all,butwhichlookvivaciousanddevil-may-care-thatprevailed.

"Thepeakofthecrisishaspassed,"thepresidentsays,andpromisesto
punish"speculators"iffoodpricescontinuetogrow."Theinternal
touristmarketisdevelopinginRussia,"theheadoftheFederalAgency
forTourismrejoices,asifnotnoticingthatarecordnumberofRussian
citizenswillthisyearspendtheNewYearholidaysathome-avacation
inRussia,unlikeclosed-offEgyptandTurkey,hasprovedtobebeyond
thereachofthepocketsofmanypeople.TheheadoftheMinistryof
Agriculturereportsthesuccessesofimportreplacement,butonsocial
networksfolkpostphotosofnoticeablyemptysupermarketshelves.

Themoodinsocietyconsequentlyfluctuatesinarangefromelationto
horror.Whereasayearago,atthepeakoftheCrimeaneuphoria,the
moodofthemajoritywasbelligerentlycheerfulandthatoftheminority
quietlystunned,intheoutgoingyearmoodstookonthecharacterofa
strangedichotomy.

Weare,asitwere,allmountedonhorsebackandwieldingasabre,but
atthesametime,wearefatalisticallyresignedtothefactthatweare
becomingvisiblypoorer.

ThebombingsofSyria,thethreatslevelledatTurkey,andthedigs
aimedatObamastillelicitspasmsofnationalpride,butinstoresand
pharmacies,facesareincreasinglygloomy-thereisnolongerthemoney
fortheformercustomaryconsumption.Andnoneisforeseen,judgingby
thefactthatnoconceptofastrategyfortheprogressivedevelopment
ofthecountryexists.Ifnoteachday,thendefinitelyeachmonthis
becomingabsolutelyunpredictable.

Noonecansayforsurewhatwillbecomeoftheroubleexchangerateand
prices,orofpayandcreditsitisnotknownwhatnewpaymentscould
beintroducedorincreased,whatsanctionscouldbeadoptedonwhat
rangeofgoods,ortowhatcountriesaccesswillbeopenedor,asis
morelikely,bebarred.

Thisisreturningthewholecountryonceagaintolivingonedayata
time,wherebyitisimpossibletoplanthechildren'svacationsoran
expensivepurchase,acourseoftreatmentinvolvingspecialmedicines,
ortheacquisitionofahomeoramotorvehicle,becauseitisnotknown
whetherallthiswillbeavailabletomorrow,oratwhatprice.

Thestabilitythatwehavebeenstrainingafterforyearshasvanished,
onceagaingivingplacetoday-to-daysurvivalinthehopeofabright
futureatsomelatertime.

Againstthisbackground,theresignationjustbeforethenewyearof
AlekseyChalyy,headoftheSevastopollegislativeassembly,alsolooks
symbolic.ThatsameChalyy,whoseinformalblacksweateratthehistoric
signingofthetreatyontheaccessionofCrimeatoRussiaonlyablind
manfailedtonotice.Butthejacketshaveneverthelessforcedoutthe
sweater-Chalyyexplainedhisresignationby"theimpossibilityof
remaininginthispost,becausein18monthsthecity'slegislativeand
executivebrancheshavenotgotanynearertorealizingablueprintfor
thecity'sdevelopmentthatissupportedbythepopulation."

Yes,thereissimplynotimeforRussia.Despitetheobviousproblems
insidethecountry,2015wastheyearofthefinaltriumphofforeign
policyoverinternalpolicy.Iftheeventsof2014,whichpassedunder
thesignofUkraine,wereneverthelesscloselyconnectedwithRussian
soil-refugeestravelledtoRussia,soldiersonleavetravelledas
volunteersfromRussia[theRussiangovernment'sofficialexplanation
forthepresenceofRussianservicemenineastUkraineisthattheyare
"onleave"],andCrimeawashookeduptonationalprogrammesandbudgets
-2015,withEgyptandTurkeyandwithSyriaandIran,wasayearof
exclusivelyinternationalsubjectmatter,whichfilledalltheairwaves
andeverydiscussion.Theinternalproblems,whicharegrowingwith
everypassingday,seeminglyceasedtoexist.

Onlytheoutsideworld,withoutaninternalworld,remains.Especially
sincethereislessandlessmoneyforthisinternalworld.

Butneithertheindividual,northecountrycanremainforlongwithout
aninternalworld.Thisisfreezinganddevastating.

Thereishopethatnextyearcouldallthesamebepartlyayearof
returningtoourselves.Andnotonlybecausetheaccumulatedinternal
problemswillbeginincreasinglytomakethemselvesfelt,andnoteven
becausefederalparliamentaryelectionsarelooming.Butsimplybecause
theindividualcannotremainforlongwithouthimselforherself,
withouthisorherownlife,hisorherownproblemsandjoys.Assoon
aspeoplerealizethatinternalproblemsaremoreimportantthan
externalproblems,theywillbeginnotonlytoimprovelifesomewhere
else,lookingatthetelevision,butalsotosetstraighttheirown
lives,thelifeoftheircityandcountry.Becauseunlessthishappens,
thereisaworldaroundus,butthereisnoworldinsideus.Andinthat
case,thereisnolifeeither.
[returntoContents]<#n0>

#4
KomsomolskayaPravda
December30,2015
Russia'seconomicministercautiouslyoptimisticinyear-endinterview
AleksandraKozlovainterviewwithEconomicDevelopmentMinisterAleksey
Ulyukayev:RussianFederationEconomyMinisterAlekseyUlyukayevgave
KomsomolskayaPravdaaforecastofhowlongroublewouldfallfor-He
answeredbasictopicalquestionsrelatingtotheRussianeconomyfrom
ourpublication'scorrespondent

EveryonehastheirownNewYeartraditions.Forathirdyearnowweare
summingupthesymbolicendofyearresultsontheeveof31December
withtheheadoftheEconomicDevelopmentMinistry.Andtherereallyis
somethingtotalkaboutnow:theroublehasagainreachedrecordlevels,
enterprisesaresuffocatingwithoutloans,andsanctionsarecontinuing
tomultiply.AlekseyUlyukayevexplainedwhatmeasuresthegovernmentis
takingtodealwiththesituation.Andhesharedhispredictions.

Businessmendemandchanges

[InterviewerAleksandraKozlova]Businesseshavemanycomplaintsabout
thegovernment'seconomicbloc.Peoplearemoaning,sayinglet'schange
something.AccordingtotheircalculationsenterprisesneedR1,500bnin
ordertobe"revitalized".Butnotjustbyprintingmoney-thisshould
bedonethroughloans(orbonds).Sothatmoneyreallyreachesthe
enterprisesandwillthenbepaidback.Isthispossible?

[Ulyukayev]Weunderstand-thesituationisserious.Andwearetrying
todrawuptheappropriatemechanismstoresolveit.Forexample,
developingabondmarket.Wehavecreatedatoolforprojectfinancing.
Itenablesmoneytobeattractedwithstate-fundedguarantees,weare
usingtheNationalWelfareFund.Ialwaystrytoconveyoneidea.
Everyoneknowsabouttherisksofinvesting.Buttherearealsothe
risksofnotinvesting.Andtheyarenoless.Ifyouhavenotinvested
todayyouhavenotcreatedataxbase.Thismeansthesourceof
replenishingthebudgetinfutureyearshasbeenundermined.Thismeans
importantsocialcommitmentswillremainunmet.Thereisavery
importantlogichere,Ithink.Unfortunately,thelawof"preferring
currentbenefitsoverfuturebenefits"operatesintheeconomy.The
preferenceforwhatwillhappeninthreedays'timeprevailsoverwhat
willoccurin30years'timeforallofus.Thatiswhymoreattention
muststillbedevotedtostrategicmatters.

[Kozlova]Doyouknow[StateDuma]deputyMarkov?

[Ulyukayev]ThechairmanoftheBudgetaryCommittee?OfcourseIknowhim.

[Kozlova]Herecentlycomparedyoutoadiverwhoperiodicallyputsona
suit,divestothebottomoftheeconomy,andtriestofumblearoundfor
itthere.Howappropriateisthecomparison?

[Ulyukayev]Appropriatenessandcorrectnessareamatterofupbringing
andeducation.Idonotwanttocallanyonetoorderhere.Weare
actuallylivinginafreecountry.Butasfarasthecomparisonis
concerned-Ithinkthatdivingisaveryhonourableprofession.It
flattersme.

[Kozlova]Soareweatthebottomornot?

[Ulyukayev]Theproblemisnotwhetherthedivergoesdowntothe
bottom.Butwhetherthebottomhasbecomeequaltothesurface?Howcan
weensurethatnoteveryoneendsupatthebottom?Thatiswhatis
important.Andinfactthetaskofthediveris-toseethereefs,
banks,anddangersthathindertheship.Andisitthebottomornot?I
thinkthatthepotentialfortheeconomytofallhasbeenexhausted.It
wasexhaustedbythemiddleof2015.Andnowvariationaroundthislow
barisoccurring.Whetheryoucallthisthe"bottom"orsomething
differentisnotthatimportant.

[Kozlova]Sowecanexpectarecoverynow?

[Ulyukayev]Thesharpdeclinehasendedbutunfortunatelythereisno
sharprise.Therearemajorfluctuationsinthetradeandfinancial
markets.Ourfiguresareeitherslightlypositiveorslightlynegative.
Thus,betweenJulyandOctobertherewasapparentlyapositivedynamic.
InNovemberthisagainchangedinanegativedirection.Onthewhole,a
processofadaptationofenterprisesandtheeconomytothenew
conditionsisstillunderway.

[Kozlova]Oh,thereisgoodnewsaswell...

[Ulyukayev]Yes,companies'profitshaveincreasedsubstantially.Onthe
whole,duringthefirst11monthsofthisyear-44percenthigherthan
lastyearbecausecostshavefallen.Thiscreatesabaseforfuture
investments.Andwearewinningonimportreplacement.The
competitivenessofenterprisesishigher-thefinancialresultis
higher.Andcompaniesareinvestingthisprofit.Sosomepositivetrends
areneverthelessbeingfelt.Sowhetherornotitisthebottomisa
goodsubjectforyourbrotherjournalisttoexercisehiswit.Butin
essence,thequestionismuchmoreserious.Thequestionis,arethere
seriousgroundsherefortheresumptionofsustainableeconomicgrowth?

[Kozlova]Andwhatisthesituationhere?

[Ulyukayev]Themostimportantthingistheadaptationoftheeconomyto
thenewconditions.Thelevelofadaptationishigh,wecanseethis.A
largenumberofsupporttools,andseveralelementsintheanti-crisis
planhaveprovedtobeunneeded.Theyturnedouttobeunnecessary,the
systemitselfrestructured.Ontheotherhand,thevulnerabilityand
excessivedependenceoftheeconomyoncommoditiesarestillpresent.So
worldshockshavehadamajoreffectonus.Thesecondimportantpoint
isthegradualnormalizationofthesituationwithinterestratesinthe
economyandwithcreditasawhole.Thethirdistheexpectationthatin
2016growthinthepopulation'srealincomeswillresume.Fourth-
investmentactivity.Alloftheaboveinspireshopethatwewillmove
intopositivefiguresnextyear.Initiallynothigh,countedintenths
ofpercents.Butwewilltrytoincreasethispace.

Fiftydollarsabarrel

[Kozlova]Sowhatwillhappenwithoilprices?Thefuturefateofthe
roublealsodependsonthis...

[Ulyukayev]Thecurrentsituationwithoilpricesistheresultofa
convergenceofseveralfactors,bothonthedemandsideandthesupply
side.Soseveralmoremonthswillbeneededformanufacturersand
consumerstofindanewbalance.Formanycountriesalevelof35-40
dollarsabarrelisunacceptable.Theirbudgetsarecalculatedona
priceof60-90dollars.Ours,incidentally,isoneofthemost
conservative,itassumes50dollars.OnlyNorwayandKazakhstanhavea
lowerprice.Butthingscannotcontinuelikethisforlong.Anew
balancemustbefound.Myfeelingisthatthisbalancewillbefound
duringthesecondhalfof2016.Itseemstomethatitwillbeata
levelofaround50dollarsabarrel.Forecastingoilpricesisavery
thanklesstask.Timewilltell.

Sanctionasablessing

[Kozlova]Wehavebeenlivingundersanctionsformorethanayearnow.
Canaconclusionbedrawn?

[Ulyukayev]Atfirstitwasverypainful.Painfulbecauseitwas
impossibletorefinance.Becausetheacquisitionoftechnologieswas
calledintoquestion.Painfulbecauseexchangeratecorrelations
immediatelychanged.Andthismeansthatdependenceonimports,imported
componentsinplaceswherethiswashigh,immediatelyresultedinan
increaseinprices.

Butitturnedoutthattherestrictedaccesstoglobalcapitalmarkets
isnotonlyamisfortunebutalsoablessing.Becausefollowingthe
devaluation,costsfell,andthismeansthatthefinancialpositionof
companiesimproved.Becausewegotusedtothecapitaloutflow,whichis
nowcharacteristicofallthedevelopingcountries,beforetheothersdid.

Onthewhole,theinfluenceofthesanctionsnowisclosetozero.It
cannotbeeternal.Inthisracebetweentheshieldandthesword,the
shieldisperhapsmorereliable.Oureconomyhasbecomemorediverse.We
nowhaveamuchbiggershareofdomesticproductioninthestructureof
retailandwholesaletrade.Andgreaterstabilityofcompaniesasawhole.

AboutUkraineandTurkey

[Kozlova]Letusmovetoanotherofourrealities,whichwillhappen
herefrom1January.SanctionsagainstUkraineenterintoforce...

[Ulyukayev]ThestorywithUkrainedidnotoccur"suddenly".Wehave
beenpreparingforitfortwoyears.Ukraineiscreatingafreetrade
zonewiththeEuropeanUnion-Godhelpit.ButUkraineislinkedto
Russiabyalargenumberofagreements.Veterinary,customs,andmany
others.Joininganothersystemofrelationsmeansthattheruleshaveto
bedifferentaswell.Otherwise,itwillbecomemuchmoredifficultfor
ourexporterstooperateinthismarket.Ukraineisnotmaintainingany
commitmentstowardsus,butitwantsustokeepourstoit.Thatdoes
nothappen.Sowearetakingmeasurestosupportoureconomy.Wehave
broughtourcommitmentsintolinewiththeircommitments.Thatis,we
havecancelledthepreferentialregime,andUkrainianproducerswillnow
paythesamedutyascountrieswithmostfavouredregimestatus-like
Germany,Sweden,orAmerica.

ItisanothermatterthatafoodembargoisbeingintroducedforUkraine
atthesametimeasthis.Buttime-wise,thisisjustacoincidence.It
isaresponsetothefactthatUkrainejoinedtheanti-Russiansanctions
inJulythisyear.ThatiswhythesameregimeasfortheEUcountries
wasintroduced.Ifthishadbeeneventwoyearsago,whenfoodimports
fromUkrainewereoftheorderof2bndollars,thiswouldhavebeen
perceptiblebuttheyhavenowfallen11-foldintwoyears.Nowtheyare
worthlessthan200mdollars.Sowearenotexpectinganyinflation
spikes...

[Kozlova]ButthenwearealsointroducingsanctionsagainstTurkey...

[Ulyukayev]Thisisaproblemthatsuddenlyfelluponus,thisis
aggression.Andthepresident'sdecreethatweallknowaboutwasthe
responsetothisaggression.ForTurkeythefoodembargoisnarrower.
Butseveralconsequencesarepossibleasaresultoftheradicaland
abruptnatureofthesechanges.Includinginflationaryones.For
example,ourdependenceontheTurkishmarketforvegetablesisquite
large-tomatoes,primarily.Thereisnothingparticularlycomplicated
aboutthis,becausetherearealargenumberofsuppliersthatareready
tooccupythisniche.Theonlythingisthattimewillbeneededto
concludenewcontractsanddevelopthelogistics.Timewillbeneeded,
duringwhichitispossiblethattherewillbesomedistortions,
includingwithregardtoprices.Ithinkthatthisisamatterofafew
weeksormonths,duringthecourseofwhichthesituationwillbe
stabilized.

Pensionsissueandtaxes

[Kozlova]RaisingtheretirementageinRussia.So,doesitneedtobe
raisedornot?

[Ulyukayev]Itisimpossibletomanagewithoutthis.BecausethePension
Funddeficitwillincrease,thecorrelationbetweenworkersand
pensionersisconstantlychanginginfavourofpensioners.The
demographicsindicatethatthetimespentinretirementisincreasing
andthetimespentatworkingageisdecreasing-thedemographic
pyramidwhosebasewasmuchwiderthanthetophasbeenoverturned.
Hypotheticallytherearetwooptions.Thefirst.Changingthe
demographiccorrelationsothatthenumberofworkersrelativetothe
numberofpensionersincreasesordoesnotfall.Raisingtheretirement
ageservespreciselythispurpose.Thesecondoption.Itispossiblenot
todothisbutthenyouwillhavetobepreparedfortheso-called
replacementratetostarttofall.Thatis,thecorrelationbetween
pensioners'incomes-pensions-andaveragesalarieswillsteadily
decline.Thequestioniswho,asitwere,willpaytheprice?Thesecond
option,wherecurrentpensionerspay,istheworst.Thepensioners'
risksarethegreatestbecausetheydependonmedicines,thepriceof
food,elderlypeoplemustbebetterprotected.Sothesecondmethodis
notsuitable,itisunjust,andcompletelyinhuman.Thefirstremains.

[Kozlova]Soitwilldefinitelyberaised!

[Ulyukayev]Iamalwayssurprised-whydopensionersworryaboutthe
retirementagerising?Thiswillnotaffectthem,theyareworrying
needlessly.Thereisnoneedforthemtobeconcerned.Itisyoung
peopleandmiddle-agedpeoplewhoneedtoworryaboutthis.ButIthink
thatthisactivegenerationshouldbepreparedforitbeforehand,they
shouldhavetimetotakethenecessarydecision.Toearnmore,change
qualifications,enterthevoluntarysavingssystem.Allofthisis
extremelyimportant.Soraisingtheretirementageisessentiallya
mandatorydecisioninthissense.Thesoonerwetakeit,theless
radicalitwillbe.

[Kozlova]Thisshould,evidently,beagradualtransition?

[Ulyukayev]Ofcourse,therewillbeagradualtransition.Itisplanned
thatfrom1January2018menwillretirenotattheageof60likenow,
butat60.6.From1January2019,at61.From1January2020,at61.6.
Andsoon.Andatsomepointwewillreachtheageof63-65-identical
formenandwomen.

[Kozlova]Andanotherinitiative,whichtheFinanceMinistryalso
periodicallysuggests-itsaystaxeswillhavetoberaised...

[Ulyukayev]Here,Iamcategoricallyagainst.Whataretaxes?Theyarea
sortofsocialcontract.Wepaytaxesforreceivingpublicservicesfrom
thestate.Security,environmentalprotection,healthcare,supportfor
culture.Therearecountrieswherepeoplearewillingtopaybigger
taxesbecausetheygetmoreservicesfromthestate.Therearecountries
thatgetrelativelyfewservicesbuttheyalsopaylittletax.But
havingtheideathatitispossibletotakemoretaxesfromthe
populationwhilenotprovidingthemwithhigh-qualitypublicservicesis
astrangeidea.Ifinadditiontothepolice,wheretherearemorethan
amillionpeople,youalsosupportprivatesecuritycompanies-another
millionpeople,thismeansbusinessespaytwice.Andthisunderminesthe
foundationsoftrustbetweenthetaxpayersandthestate.Inmyview,
thefiscalburdenisexcessivenow,andnottoolow.Weneedtothink
aboutreducingthetaxburdenandnotaboutincreasingit.

[Kozlova]Agoodidea.

[Ulyukayev]No,themostimportantthingisthatthisisanideathat
hasbeentested.Afterall,atthebeginningofthiscenturythatishow
weacted.Weabolishedturnovertaxes,introducedaflatscalefor
incometax,andasaresultwedidnotgetlessbutmoretax.Itworked.

Abitofpoetry

[Kozlova]Iknowthatyouseeminglysetthemuseasidewhenyoutookup
thispostbutperhapsyoucancomeupwithsomethingfortheNewYear?
Perhapsyoucanreadsomething?

[Ulyukayev]Oneshortpoeminspiredabitbythecurrentstrangewinter.

"Theicethins,sleepgetsdeeper.
Wetwistourfingersatourtemples
Eitherdespairfromtea,
Orcoffeeyearning.
Incomprehensiblethreats
Makeourdreamsthin.
EitherfromSantaClaus,
OrfromtheSpringMaiden."

IneverthelesshopethatifnotSantaClausthentheSpringMaidenwill
definitelybringusallwedeserve:aquietlife,comfort,prosperity,
andhappinessforus,andourchildren.
[returntoContents]<#n0>

#5
Gazeta.ru
December26,2015
Russianpunditviewscurrentregime,likelyfuturescenarios
NatalyaGalimovainterviewwithEffectivePolicyFoundationheadGleb
Pavlovskiy:'TheKremlinIsLivingWithoutSensingtheCountryBeneath
It'EffectivePolicyFoundationHeadGlebPavlovskiyontheRussian
SystemofManagement

Theyear2016willbethemomentoftruthforthecurrentmodelfor
treatingthestate.AtransformationisinevitableinRussia,andit
willbeprecededbyyetonemoreescalation,EffectivePolicyFoundation
headGlebPavlovskiybelieves.Butthroughitsescalationstheregimeis
creatingademandforextremalitywhichitcannotsatisfy.Someoneelse
couldenterthestatevacuum.Thatwashowin1917LeninandTrotskiy
filledthe"demandforgreatness"createdbytheProvisionalGovernment.

[Galimova]Inthebook"TheRussianFederationSystem.Sourcesof
RussianStrategicBehaviour,"youcharacterizePutin's2012-2015-model
styleofmanagementas"thestyleofindirectinterpretation."His
entouragetodayleavesthepresident"withanincompleteideaaboutwhat
hasbeendecidedandtryingtorememberthewordsPutinuttered."The
president"buildsrelationsinsuchawaythathecanalwayssay:Idid
notknowthatandIdidnotpromisethat."Hehas"constructedabovethe
regimeanunreachablefloorwherehealoneresides.Andalthoughhe
stillhascontactwithhisentourage,hedoesnotwanttobear
responsibilityfordecisions."

Pleaseciteexamplesofthemanifestationofthe"indirect
interpretationstyle."

[Pavlovskiy]Youcanseethemeverydayandheartheminanyspeech.
WhatdoesPutin'sfamousexpression"decideforyourselves"mean-isit
givingusafreehand?Ofcoursenot.Itistheimpossibilityof
managementbydirectivewhencontrolismaintainedthroughthetechnique
ofuncertainty.TheentiremanagementoftheUkrainecrisisafterCrimea
wasconductedinthatmanner.

Takethepresident'smessage-itcontainsphraseswhichcanbe
interpretedincontradictoryways.Eitherastherejectionofescalation
orasdefencealongtheperimeter.Thepresidentmetwiththecaptains
ofbusiness,andwhatdidhesaytothosecaptains?Heconducteda
politicalbriefingwiththembasedonthecurrentpress,andthe
captainsremainedcompletelysilent.

Andthisisnotaboutonemanbutaboutthefeaturesofthesystem.

Ifwehadbeforeusatrulybureaucraticpowervertical,itwouldaccept
directivesandcarrythemout.Butwearetalkingaboutasystemto
whichorderscannotbegiven.

Itisastatelesssystem,thatisanon-bureaucraticsystem.The
monstrousexecutiveapparatusisalwaysbusyandiswhollyengrossed
withdeals.Itisafunctioningbutundisciplinedsystemsimilarnotto
astatebuttotheGorbushka[software,music,andvideomarketin
Moscow],ortheYuzhnyyport[automobilemarket].Itissavedbya
spinelessreadiness,afterithasreceivedasignaltoitsadvantage,to
turntheotherway.Soordersareissuedintheformofanindirecthint
or,astheysay,a"signal,"andthatlaunchesanewseriesofdeals.

[Galimova]WhywasitduringPutin'scurrentpresidentialtermthatthis
styleofmanagementarose?

[Pavlovskiy]Itdidnotarise,itflowered.Thechoiceofdirectionwas
madeunderBorisYeltsin.ItwasachoiceinfavourofaPresidential
Stafftechnocracywiththesuper-sovereigntyoftheheadofstate.When,
forinstance,BorisNikolayevich[Yeltsin]inconversationwithEldar
Ryazanovcouldsay:"IwakeupandIthink,whoshallIgivethecountry
to?"Asthoughheweretalkingaboutagarage.Andhesincerelybelieved
heownedthecountry.

Thechoiceinfavourofthecountryasthepresident'sdomainandnotas
apoliticalnationoranideologicalgoalwasdefinitivelymadebetween
1993and1996.

Afterall,youconstantlyhearitsaid:"Thatisforthepresidentto
decide."Andatthesametimeeveryoneunderstandsthatthepresidentis
notengagedwith,forinstance,thehousingandmunicipalservices
problem.Hecannotdeterminethesizeofthefineforlong-haultruck
drivers.Buteverythingispresentedasallegedlyhispersonaldecision.
Alldecisionsareattributedtoonemanbecausetherearenoprocedures
forthepassageofmanagementsignals.Thesystemdoesnotdareto
abandonit.Herenothingcanbedictatedfromthetopexcept
prohibitionsforthepopulation.ThatwaswhenTurkishtomatoessuddenly
becamedisgustingwhileitseemedthat,conversely,therewasnothing
wrongwithGeorgianwines.

Butwhatdoesabanmean?Anewdemandforservices.Phoningroundyour
friendsandplacinganorderfortheproductionofincinerators(devices
forburningrubbishandotherwaste-Gazeta.Ru)forburningfood.But
thatisnotcorruption,butataxfarmingstate.Weareruledbytax
farmers.

ItisdangerousfortouriststoflytoEgypt,itisbanned.Why?Weare
notatwarwithEgypt,weviewitasafriendlycountry.Butwehave
treateditasthoughitwereahostilestate.

ByalsodestroyingtourismtoTurkeywehavetreatedoururbanmiddle
class-thesystem'smostloyalsupporters-asserfs.Wehavedeprived
themofthefreedomofconsumerchoice.Thelastremainingfreedom!

[Galimova]DoyounotthinkthatthebanonflightsfirsttoEgyptand
thenoncharterflightstoTurkeyisexplainedinteraliabythe
regime'splantoensureaninfluxofvacationerstoCrimea?Farfrom
everyonecantraveltoEurope-particularlywhenyouconsiderthe
currentexchangerates.

[Pavlovskiy]Explanationsofthatkindarechosenwhenthereisan
obviouslackofpurpose.Anyideaofoursofheroicallyconqueringhasa
subtext-liningourpockets.Wedestroycommunications.Wewant
simultaneouslytoprovideapicturefortheSundayTVprogrammesand
showtheTurkshowangryweareandatthesametimeallowtourismto
earnmoneyforCrimea,wheretheyhavealreadysaidtheywillnottake
everyone.Butambiguityofthatkindalwayscomesacropper.Thereis
nothingleftexceptpeoplebeingaccustomedtobosseswhoareincapable
ofmanagingorderingeveryoneabout.Andorderingthemtonopurpose.
Thechampionwordof2015is"absurdity"-itcanbeheardfromthe
Kremlincorridorstothemostfar-flungregions.

"ThememorandaonPutin'sdeskarereportsofattacksbyreptilians"

[Galimova]Athisannualpressconferencethepresidentconfused
GovernorTurchakwithhisfatherandshowedhewasunfamiliarwithhow
paidparkinglotsareintroducedinMoscow.Putinisobviouslybeing
misinformed.Inyourview,towhatdegreedotheRussianleadershipand
Putinpersonallyunderstand,know,andfeelwhatishappeninginthe
country?

[Pavlovskiy]InformationflowsintotheKremlinfromeverywhereandof
coursethereareplentyoflies.Butallpresidentsintheworldare
liedto,thequestionisthemaliceofthelies.Yourecallthe
"Agitprop"thatexistedintheUSSRandhowitfriedourbrainswith
"MalayaZemlya"[abookaboutBrezhnev'sallegedwartimeexploits]and
solidaritywiththebloodyEthiopiansonofabitchMengistuMariam?In
Russiathereis"neoprop"-themachineryofstultifyingtelevision
propaganda.Itpumpsupthepopulation'sloyaltybykeepingthemass
consciousnessinastateofhysteria.Russia'speoplearebeingmovedto
theworldofasinisterpoliticalserial,andthatiswheretheylive.

Butthiscausesthecountry'sleaderstolosetheabilitytomake
strategicdecisionsandtoassessrisks.Eveniftheythemselveswantto
shieldthemselvesfromtheirownpropaganda.Imagineforaminutethat
Putin,likemyself,doesnotwatchtelevision.Idon'tbelieveit,but
let'sassumeso.However,allaroundhimaretelevisionviewerswhohave
assimilatedthelanguageoflies.Anetworkoffalsestoriesinwhich
reptiliansareprowlingaroundtheKremlinhasbeenimposedontopof
reality.Therearerealthreats,butyoucannotseethembecauseyouare
toldtheyhavefoundfascistsfromtheMoonin"Memorial"[humanrights
organization].IamconvincedthatthememorandaonPutin'sdeskare
reportsofattacksbyreptiliansandofUFOsshotdownovertheweek.

"Neoprop"operatesasanall-Russianmultiplierofstupidity.Inthis
distortedpictureoftheworld,theMalaysianBoeingdownedthrough
stupiditycanbeportrayedasanaircraftcontainingdeadbodies
launchedbytheCIAinorderto"bringPutindown."Lookatitthrough
theeyesofthepoorKremlintelevisionviewer:Sincethereareenemies,
whoarealso"ourpartners,"whyforthesakeofaKremlincoupshould
theynotundertakeasimpleoperation-fillingaBoeingwithdead
bodiesanddroppingitovertheDonetsBasin?

Realityhasbeendissolvedinfantasyandtheydonotsensetherisks.

Afterall,itwassaidthatSyriawassimply"militaryexercises,"
right?OurbombersweresometimesedgingalongtheTurkish-Syrian
border,butthatdidnotseemtobeaproblemfortheKremlin.Itwas
justliketakingoffinKubinka[airbasenearMoscow]andcrossing
SmolenskayaOblastandaccidentlycuttingacorneracrossBelarus.Where
aretheytoacquireanunderstandingofhowtheworldliveswhentheTV
newshasalreadydescribedhowitisstructuredwithRothschildthere
andSoros,Browder,andtheCIAhere?

ApoliticiancannotwatchRussianpoliticaltelevisionandremainrational.

Ostankino's"neoprop"iscrackcocaine,youloseyoursenseofreality.

[Galimova]Whatisthedangerofthelossofreality?

[Pavlovskiy]Whateveryoulike,inparticularbeingpreparedto
sacrificeourselves.Emotionallywearealreadyripefortheroleof
Christmasturkeys.Weonlyeverwantedwhatwasgood,wehaverisenfrom
ourknees,wearethegreatRussia...Butwhentheshowendswesay:
"Ri..i..ght,wehavebeenwrongagain!"Anditcouldendanywayyou
like,giventhattheKremlinisnotsafeguardingnationalsecurityand
issaunteringaroundcriminalregionsliketheMiddleEast,provoking
itsneighboursovertrifles.

Wehavecreptintotheworldasignoramuses,rejectingtheconservative
diplomacycustomaryforRussia.TheForeignMinistryistalkingprison
slanglikeahoodlumandisoffendedthat"theydonotunderstandus"
andwaitingforeveryonetorushtoMoscowtonegotiate.Theclassesof
therealthreatshavenotbeenidentified.TheauthoritieswatchStar
Wars.TheyfighttheenvironmentalistVitishko,"OpenRussia,"andthe
pop-whistleblowerNavalnyyasthoughtheywerefightingtheDeathStar
(thecombatspacestationfromStarWars-Gazeta.ru).Thatisagiftto
Russia'srivals-intheircapitalsandcorporationheadquartersgroups
ofclevermenareselectingthemomentforputtingtheignoramus'snose
outofjoint.Itwillallendwithablackout:Afterfailingtoresolve
thelatestselectionoftasks,theSystemwillbeleftinlimboandwill
cometoastandstill.

Whatismostdangerousseemstometobethelossofthetiesbetween
thestateandthepopulationandallitsgroups.Televisionhasremained
theonlyformofconnection.

Butthisisnotastrongconnection,itneedstobefedfrombudget
revenue.ButtheKremlinisreckless.Whydoexcessivelyreckless
gamblerslose?Notbecausetheyareidiotsbutbecausetheydonotknow
howtostopgamblingattherighttime.Ourregimeisencouraging
protractedgamblinginordertokeepthemassesinaconstantstateof
excitement.

[Galimova]Butontheotherhand,whilepeopleareinthatstatethey
arelessinclinedtoblametheirmisfortunesontheregime,believing
economicproblemstohavebeeninspiredbyRussia'senemies.Youdonot
expectanythinguntowardfrompeopleinthatstate.Although,ofcourse,
therearealso"glitches"-aswiththelong-haultruckdrivers,for
instance.

[Pavlovskiy]Howtocreateinthe"ordinaryman"afalsesenseof
belongingtotheregime?IntheUSSRtheyhadgreatdifficultyseeking
todothis,theysetupmeetingsatalllevels-fromyardmeetingsto
meetingsatworkshopsandfactories.Thereisnothingofthekindnow.
Itisthemassofsupporters,the"overwhelmingmajority,"whichthey
useattimestofrightenthecountryandatotherstoinstructit,which
actsasthecontrollerofbehaviour.Itisonlyasenseofthe
situation'semergencynaturethatimposesdiscipline.

Whenapersonisvigilantandislookingroundhiminalarm,thatmeans
heisutterlyharmless.Butheisalsoeconomicallyuncompetitive.

Unrenewableresourceshavetobebroughtintoplay.Theregimecannot
stopthegame,andincaseslikethatpeoplealwayslose.Whenthegame
stops,everythingwillgrindtoahalt.

"Wehavesleepwalkersinfrontofus"

[Galimova]IsSyriaalsoagame?

[Pavlovskiy]Ofcourse.It'shuntingforanonexistentcatinthedark
roomwheretheevilTurkmenlive.

[Galimova]Whatwasthemainaim-divertingtheWest'sattentionfrom
Ukraine,thusbreakingoutofisolation,keepingAl-Asadinpower,or
demonstratingtocitizensthatwithoutRussiaitisimpossibleto
resolveasingleimportantprobleminthisworld?

[Pavlovskiy]Makingaspectacularentranceontotheworldstage,sitting
ontheglobalthrone,andoncetherethinkingwhattodonext.The
Kremlinhasnodesiretofocusonasinglemainaim,andthereisno
aim.IthadtoemergefromisolationfollowingtheUkrainestory.Andit
wasclearthattheUnitedStateswouldnothaveletuscrawlawayeasily
-wehadtohithard.Andwedidhithard!Butafterhitting,wehadto
recordarapidprofit,thewaytheydowithriskystockexchange
operations.Wehadtochangethegame.Butno,wehitoutagainand
again.SincetheTurkishscandalwehavebeengraduallyceasingto
understandwhatwearedoingandweareobviouslywaitingfora
promptingfromWashington.

NowIraqhasstartedtobeofinteresttous.Butitisalwayslikethat
intheMiddleEast-onceyouhavegottenthere,theyarehappytoplay
withyou.Theywillpiqueyourinterestandensnareyou.

Inourcountrytheythink:"Wewillnotletourselvesbemisled-there
willbenosecondAfghanistan."ButthisisnoAfghanistan.

HeretheywillpretendtobeafriendlikeAnwaral-Sadat(theformer
presidentofEgypt-Gazeta.Ru)andwaitforyoutoturnyourback...

[Galimova]Inyouropinion,doestheRussianleadershiphavean
understandingoftheconditionsunderwhichwecouldendtheoperation
inSyria?Putinsaiditwilllastaslongasthegovernmenttroops'
offensiveagainstthepositionsofISIL(bannedinRussia-Gazeta.Ru).
Butthatsoundstoooblique.

[Pavlovskiy]Wehaveenteredasituationwithoutanalysinghowwewill
getout.Whatarewecountingon?Ontheworldbeinginachaoticstate
andontwoorthreeeventsunexpectedlychangingthemilitaryand
politicalsituation.Whatevents-wedonotknow,butwhodoesknow?
LikethestoryoftherefugeesinEurope,whichhasoverturnedthe
Europeanagenda,creatingforusaSyriancorridorofintervention.In
2016therewillprobablybeacoupleofwindowsofthatkindthrough
whichwemayjump(outofSyria-Gazeta.Ru).Butwedonotknowwhether
wewanttojumpout!

Butyoushouldnotseethisasmerestupidity.Itisaprofound
disorientationlinkedtothelossof25yearsofcomfortfromthe
benefitsofglobalization.

TheKremlinislivingwithoutsensingthecountrybeneathit.The
situationistragic,becausewehavesleepwalkersinfrontofus.

[Galimova]AfterTurkeyshotdowntheRussianbomber,peoplestarted
saying,thatishowwarsstart:Noonewantedamilitaryconfrontation,
butthesituationbecameheatedandithappened.Attherecentmeeting
oftheNATOcountries'foreignministers,thediplomatsadmittedthat
theydidnotruleoutmirror-imagemeasuresfromMoscowwithrespectto
Ankara,buttheyhadnopreciseunderstandingofhowPutinwouldreact.
Fortunately,thereactioninresponsewasnotofamilitarynature.But
thequestionremains:IsadirectclashpossiblebetweenRussiaanda
countrythatisamemberofthealliance?

[Pavlovskiy]ThefactthattheNATOcountriesdonotunderstandhow
Putinwillreactisnotanadvantageforus,butanadditionalrisk.
Whenyoudonotknowwhatthreatstoexpectfromyourformerpartnerwho
hassuddenlydecidedtobecomeyouradversary,thenormalreflexthat
arisesistoplayitsafe.

Take2014.TheinteractionbetweenRussiaandtheWestcanbedescribed
asasuccessionofsituationsinvolvingtheexchangeofblows.TheWest
hurriedlymakesthefirstdecisionsthatcometohand,afterall,
somethinghadtobedecided!:Crimeahadbeentaken,wouldOdesa
[Odessa]betakentomorrow?AndfromOstankinotheywereshouting:"Yes,
wewilltakeit!WewilltakeOdesaandKyiv[Kiev]andwewillgetto
Lviv!"WhatwastheWestsupposedtothink?Thedegreeofescalationwas
climbingandatacertainmomentsomeonemighthavelosttheirnerve.

Themostseriousepicfailforourpseudo-bellicositywasthatwehadno
ideaoffightingtovictory.WhenBushwentintotheMiddleEast,hehad
theideaofbuilding"ademocraticGreaterMiddleEast."Helostawhole
pileofmoney,heplungedtheregionintoturmoilandbloodandachieved
nothing.Butheneverthelesshadavictoryplanandhehadhis15
minutesofglory:Baghdadwastaken.

Wearewagingawarwithoutanidea,withoutanultimategoal,and
withoutachanceofwinning.AndwhatmightvictoryinSyrialooklike?

Al-Asadwilltakecontrolofthecountry'sentireterritoryasKadyrov
seniordidwithChechnya?Thatisunrealistic.HewillcarveoffSyria's
Alawitechunkandreignthere?Inthatcasehewillbeoverthrownand
"eatenup"rightthereinthepalace.

[Galimova]Butathirdscenarioispossible-Al-Asadhandingoverpower
toanothercandidateacceptablealsotous.

[Pavlovskiy]Thepeoplewhodonotknowhowtosolvetheproblemof
supplyingMoscowwithtomatoeswillknowhowtostructureasystemfor
managingSyria?AndwillovercomeTurkeyatthesametime?Don'tmakeme
laugh.

"Someoneelsecouldfillthestatevacuum"

[Galimova]Youtalkalotaboutthesystem'sshortcomingsand
weaknesses.Wheredoesitsstrengthlie?

[Pavlovskiy]Thesystemissplendid.Ithasskilfullydodgedthe
threats.Onseveraloccasionsalreadywehaveavoideddefeatwithout
resolvingthequestionofbuildingthestate.
Theveryfactthatwestillexisttodayinthiscurrentstatelessform
isalreadyagreatsuccess.Unlessyoutakealookaheadto2016,ofcourse.

[Galimova]Whyisthesystemmanagingtododgeaway?Isthisluck,good
fortune?

[Pavlovskiy]Notatall.Itisahighdegreeofmobilityand"agility."
TheshortcomingsandmeritsoftheRussianFederationSystemlieinone
andthesamething-itisnotastate.Ifthepresentteamwereto
starthonestlysettingupstableandlawfulinstitutions,theresult
wouldbeaweakstatewithamediocreeconomy.Butwearenotbuilding
institutions,weconqueredGeorgia.WecanalsooccupytheArcticas
longastheicedoesnotmelt.WhenBushJuniorwasteachingtheKremlin
geopoliticshelikedtosay:"Youstudythefacts-wemakethem!"Now
byannexingCrimea,wetoohavecreatedourownfacts.Butpleasenote
thattheKremlinhaslessideathananyonewhattodowiththem.

TheRussianFederationsystemisunique.Tobehonest,Icannotfindany
closeanalogies.

Asacountrywedonotbelieveinanything,butweareableartificially
tocreateasituationofbeliefinourselves.Wedonotbelievein
principlesorinlong-termcoalitionsbasedonideologyorfriendship
andwearenottryingtocreatethem.TheRussianFederationaroseina
periodwhenithadnoalliesleftintheprecisesenseoftheword,even
theformerUSSRrepublicswantedtocutloose.Andthesystemlearnedto
survivealoneattheexpenseoftherestoftheworldbyanoriginalmethod.

[Galimova]InyourbookyoutalkamongotherthingsaboutthePutin
majority,believingthat"onedayitwillbecomeapocalypticfor
Russia":"Ithasalreadyproventhatforthesakeofpreservingits
positionandemotionalwell-beingitispreparedtocarryoutanyacts
oftyrannyinsideandoutsidethecountry.Anduponhearingthecallof
amorepowerfulextreme,itrespondstoiteagerly."Wheredoyousee
thePutinmajority'sapocalypticrole?

[Pavlovskiy]Itisallsimple:Thereisthepopulationlivingona
modestannuityfromtheregimeintheabsenceofapoliticalnation,
policy,orstate.Butthisisa"Praetorianmajority."Ithasgrown
accustomedtothemagicatmosphereofextremalityandmiracles-
miraclessimultaneouslydangerousandprofitable.Wehavean"almost
war,"butatthesametimeeveryoneknowsthatinactualfactthereis
nowar,yetitisbreathtaking.Escalationafterescalation.Todaythe
audiencehasbeenwarmedup,butwhereisthesoloist?

TheKremlinteamnolongerofferstheattractivelyprofitablepolicyit
promised.Ithasturnedoutthattheconcerthasbeenpostponedbutwe
havetopaytwiceoverforourseats.

Astatevacuumhasarisenwhichsomeoneelsecouldfill.Withaslightly
moreprofitableproposalforthePraetorianmass.

[Galimova]Someonetrulyradical?

[Pavlovskiy]Wehavelotsofradicalswhotalkthetalk.Theproblemis
notradicalismbutthefactthatthroughitsmilitaryescalationsthe
regimeiscreatingademandtowhichitwillbeunabletorespond.The
situationwasmoreorlessthesamein1917.Theprovisionalgovernment
appropriatedforitselftheprerogativesoftheoverthrownmonarchand
theStateDuma.

AndKerenskiy'sjabberingabouthowRussiahadrisenfromitskneesand
wouldbeanexampletothewholeworldfuelledanappetiteforsomething
ofindeterminategrandeur.LeninandTrotskiyquietlycameinviathis
backdoor.

[Galimova]Butin1917thesituationinRussiawascompletelydifferent.

[Pavlovskiy]Iamnotcomparingpeople.Iamsayingthatinpolitics
anyonewhobuildsupexpectationsofmiraclesbeyondhispowersto
deliverispreparinganinvitationforsomeoneelse.Theregimeis
rushingtobringthefuturecloserbutisnotthinkingaboutitandhas
bannedpoliticiansfromtalkingaboutit.Meanwhileresourcesare
runningoutandthefutureisevercloserandevermorepainful.

Isee2016asa"terminal"year-themomentoftruthforthismodelfor
treatingthestate.

[Galimova]Why2016inparticular?

[Pavlovskiy]IncantationsaboutagreatRussiawithdwindlingresources
andanobviousinabilitytomanagewhatisleftareacceleratingthe
crisis.Everythingiscavingin,thereislessmoney,yettheCentral
Bankchairmanisadvisingusnottolookatcurrencyexchangeratesand
atthehabitsofthemiddleclasses.Ithinksomekindoftransformation
isinevitableinthecountry-ofcourse,itistobedesiredthatit
willnotbeadestructiveone-butbeforethatyoucanexpectyet
anotherescalation.AndaccordingtothelawsofRussianescalations,
thenextoneshouldbebroaderandmoreriskythanthepastones.

[Galimova]If2016isthefinaletothepresentbehaviouralmodel,what
willcomenext?

[Pavlovskiy]Afinaleisnotadisaster.Thefantasymachineiscoming
toahaltanditisclearthatithasnothingmoretoplaywith:No
money,nomobility,nosupportersorcompetentcadres.Butwhen
resourcescollapse,adecisionhastobemaderapidly,youhavetomake
not"geopolitical"decisionsbutrealones.Whenitbecomesclearthat
thereisnostateandthecommandcontrolcentrehas"gonefora
Klinskoye"[referencetocommercialforKlinskoyebeer]peoplewill
startdoingsomething.

[Galimova]Isitpossiblethatthesituationwillchangeinpartthrough
theelectionstotheStateDumawhichwillinfacttakeplacein2016?

[Pavlovskiy]Anyrealagendafor2016willrequireanauditofthe
countryandofavailableresources.Whatdowestillhave?Whoisstill
doinghisjobratherthansafeguardinghisdacha?Whathastoberevoked
immediately?

Forinstance,aconsiderableproportionofthecurrentDuma'soutputcan
becategorizedasuseless.ThisisthemostingloriousofallDumasover
thepast100years.

Itwouldbegoodifaconsensusweretoforminsocietyaroundtheidea
thatthedeputiesofthisDumashouldnotenterthenextDuma-anyof
them.Thentheelectionsmightstillacquirestatevalue.Butinany
eventtheelectionswillbedifferentfromthewayoursagesare
planningthem.Andwhatexactlytheywillbelikeisaquestionfor
thosewhogotoplayonthisfieldandhowhaveastakethere.Ihaveno
stakeinit.
[returntoContents<#n0>]

#6
Sputnik
January4,2016
WeakRubletoHelpRussiaWithstandLowOilPrices

WASHINGTON(Sputnik)-Russianoilindustrywillendurelowcommodity
pricesduetoRussia'sweakenednationalcurrency,Moody'sInvestors
ServicesaidinapressreleaseonMonday.

"Russia'sweakrublewillhelpthecountry'snationaloilcompanies
withstandlowoilprices,buteconomicsanctionslimitaccessto
long-termexternalfinancingfromUSandEUfinancialandcapital
marketsfortheRussiangiantRosneft(Ba1stable),"thereleasestated.

InDecember2015,pricesforBrentoilfellbelow$37perbarrel,
reachingalevellastseeninDecember2008.Followingthedecline,the
valueofRussia'sruble,whichistraditionallydependentontheprice
ofoil,felltoa3.5-monthminimumagainstthedollar,exceeding71
rublesperdollar.

Moody'sarguedthattheglobaloilandgasindustrywillhavetoreduce
spendingin2016inthefaceofdecreasingoilprices.Theratingagency
addedthatexcesssupplywillcontinuetoinfluencetheoilsector,
whichwilllikelyseeariseindefaultsin2016.

Moody'salsonotedthatnationaloilcompaniesinLatinAmericawill
likelyfacehighrefinancingrisk,whileChina'sthreenationaloil
companies-ChinaNationalPetroleumCorporation,ChinaPetrochemical
CorporationandChinaNationalOffshoreOilCorporation-willhaveto
confrontdeterioratingcreditmetricsthrough2017.

ThestrengthoftheRussiancurrencyagainsttheUSdollarhasdeclined
twofoldsincethebeginningof2014amidtheWesterneconomicsanctions
imposedonRussiaoverMoscow'sallegedinvolvementintheUkraine
crisisaswellastheglobalcollapseinoilprices.Russiahas
repeatedlyrefutedanyinvolvementinUkraine'sinternalaffairs.

[returntoContents<#n0>]

#7
Sputnik
January3,2015
RussiaOilOutputRisestoNewRecordHighin2015

Russia'soilproductionreachedarecord534.081millionmetrictonsin
2015,mediareportssaid.

PeoplewalksinfrontoftheLukoilNeftochimHeadquartersinSofiaon
July27,2011

In2015,Russia'soiloutputamountedtoarecord534.081millionmetric
tons,40percenthigherthanin2014,accordingtomediareports.

Russia'soilexportstonon-CIScountriesincreasedby10.6percentand
reached220.267milliontons,sourcessaid.

Rosneftremainsthecountry'slargestoilcompanyitproducedmorethan
189millionmetrictonsofoillastyear.ComingonRosneft'sheelsare
LukoilandSurgutneftegas,withoiloutputstandingatover85million
metrictonsand61millionmetrictons,respectively.

InlateDecember,RussianEnergyMinisterAlexanderNovaklaidthedrop
inoilpricesatSaudiArabia'sfeet.AccordingtoNovak,SaudiArabia
increasedoilproductionby1.5millionbarrelsperdayin2015.

Attheendof2015,worldoilpricesdroppedtotheir2008level,andat
theDecember31tradingsessioncrudewasworth37.61dollarsperbarrel.

RussiaDeputyPrimeMinisterArkadyDvorkovich,forhispart,saidthat
hedoesnotbelieveoilpriceswillplummetto25dollarsperbarrel.At
thesametime,headdedthattheperiodofsuchlowprices"cannotlast
toolong."

Whenhammeredout,Russia'sbudgetfor2016stipulatedglobaloilprices
wouldbeabout50dollarsperbarrel.

[returntoContent<#n0>s]

#8
TheNationalInterest
January4,2016
TheTruthAboutSanctionsAgainstRussia
Westernsanctionshavefailedtodelivera'devastatingblow'butthey
alsoseemheretostay.
ByNikolayPakhomov
NikolayPakhomovisapoliticalanalystandconsultantinNewYorkCity.
HeisaRussianInternationalAffairsCouncilexpert.Youcanfollowhim
onTwitter@nik_pakhomov.

TheextensionofsanctionsagainstRussiabytheEUandtheirexpansion
bytheUnitedStatesdemonstratedthattherestrictivemeasureswill
remaininplacefortheforeseeablefuture.HoweverhardfortheRussian
economy,thesanctionshavenotdeliveredadevastatingblow,which
couldhaveledtoasignificantchangeinKremlinpolicy.Thesemeasures
werearguablynotcreatedtoruintheRussianeconomy,whichistoo
largeandimportantfortheworldtodowithout.Thesanctionswere
designedtowarnRussiaagainstforeignpolicyactionsthattheWest
doesnotagreewith.Instead,theybecameacrashcourseforRussian
policymakersandelites,remindingthemthatforRussiatotrulysecure
anindependentstandingininternationalrelationsitshouldbeready
andabletowithstandinternationalpressure,especiallyintheeconomic
sphere.

SincethestartofWesternsanctionsagainstRussiaithasbeenobvious
thatthemeasuresarenotassevereastheycouldhavebeen-andforgood
reason.ConsiderthesanctionsleveledagainsttheRussianenergy
sector:amongotherthings,theyhavebeenaimedatreducingfinancing
optionsforRussianenergycompaniesandpreventingthemfromdeveloping
complicatedoffshoreandArcticprojects.Bothspheresplayavery
importantroleinstrategicplanningforthesecompanies,butthe
restrictivemeasuresdidnotharmmuchoftheircurrentoperations.The
reasonissimple:Russiancompaniessupply,accordingtodifferent
estimates,uptoathirdoftheEU'snaturalgasandoildemand.Insuch
situation,anyimmediateordevastatingmeasuresagainstthesecompanies
canhardlybeexpected.

Atthesametime,withsinkingoilprices,itwouldbedifficultto
arguethatthesanctionsdonotharmthestrategicperspectivesof
Russianenergycompaniesand,assuch,putadrasticpressureonthe
Russianeconomyasawhole-whichisstillverydependentonenergy
exports,althoughlessthanbefore.Moreimportantly,afterthe
sanctionswereconfirmedbytheUnitedStatesandtheEuropeanUnionat
theendof2015itbecameclearthatthispressureisheretostay.

Onlyafewmonthsago,severalRussianandforeigninsidersthoughtthat
withthefragileceasefiremoreorlessholdingineasternUkraine,and
withmanyEuropeancompaniesdiscontentedbyprofitlossduetothe
sanctions,therestrictivemeasureswouldbelessened-atleastbythe
EU.OnecanrecalltheParistalksinthe"NormandyFour"formatin
October,whichdefactoconfirmedthecontinuationoftheMinskprocess
into2016.Atthesametime,theleadershipofLuganskandDonetsk
People'sRepublicspostponedtheirelections,openingthepossibilityof
holdingthemwithintheUkrainianlegalspace.Thelatterwouldbea
stepinthedirectionofreconciliation.But,whenextendingand
expandingthescopeofsanctions,theEUandtheUnitedStatesdidnot
takeintoconsiderationtheimprovementandstabilizationofthe
situationinEasternUkraine.

Itshouldcomeasnosurprise:thepoliticalelitesinEuropeandthe
UnitedStateshaveattachedsomuchpoliticalsignificancetothe
sanctionsthatthesanctionshavebecomeirreversible,atleastwithout
asignificantmoveonthepartofRussia.Sincetherearenosignsthat
Moscowwill,forexample,reverseitsdecisiononCrimea,onecannot
expectanendtoWesternsanctionsagainstRussiaanytimesoon.

ThismeansthatfortheKremlin,thesanctionshavebecomeapermanent
factorindecisionmaking,andmakeotherdomesticandinternational
problemsmoresevere.ThoseincludethequestionofwhetherRussiahas
loyalallieswhocanhelp.Ithasbecomeobviousthat,ontheonehand,
evenRussia'sbusinesspartnersinEuropecannotassistitindealing
withthesanctions.Inthelastmonthsof2015,theworldsawhow
Germanywantedtohaveitbothways,attemptingtocontinueimplementing
NorthStream2whilekeepingthesanctionsinplace.Italy,deprivedof
naturalgasfromtheSouthStreamafterthecrisisinrelationsbetween
RussiaandtheWeststartedin2014,becamefrustratedbyGerman
actions,buttonoavail.

Ontheotherhand,itisnotclearhowmuchsupportMoscowwillreceive
fromBeijingonvariousissues.Certainly,ChinamightneedRussian
naturalgasandoil,buthowfarcanthiscooperationgo?Eveninterms
ofexpandingbuyersforRussianenergyresources,Moscowneedsto
diversifyitspartnersinAsia-ifChinabecomesthechiefclientinthe
regionandcooperationwiththeEuropeansdecreases,willBeijingbe
abletodictatethetermsofcooperationtoMoscow?

InRussiandomesticpolicy,Westernsanctionsalsoincreasedpressureon
theKremlintoactonmanyfronts.Foryears,businessmen,officialsand
expertshavebeendiscussingtheinvestmentsneededtomodernize
Russia'senergysector.Butwithhighoilpricestherewasnomajor
incitementtomodernize:whybotherwhenprofitsareeasyandhigh?Now,
notonlyhasthepriceofoilgonedown,butWesternsanctions,
includingthebanonenergy-relatedservices,equipmentand
technologies,arenotgoinganywhere.OnlyinNovember2014,after
Westernsanctionswereimposed,didtheRussiangovernmentapprovea
planofmeasurestodecreasetheRussianenergysector'sdependencyon
imports.Thiswasdoneafteryearsofdiscussionandabroadconsensus
thatthemeasureswerelongoverdue.Wouldhavetheybeenimplemented
withoutthepresenceofsanctions?AsofDecemberof2015,subsequent
measures,necessarytosupportthedomesticproductionofequipmentfor
offshoreproduction,werestillbeingdiscussed.TheUnitedStatesand
theEuropeanUnionmayexpandthelistofsanctionedservices,equipment
andtechnologiesanytime.ThereforeRussiancompanies,withthesupport
oftheirgovernment,shouldactfasttogetthenecessarytechnologies
(maybethroughcooperationwithAsiancompanies)andusethemtomodernize.

Furthermore,themajorityofsectorsthatRussianeedstodevelopand
growitseconomycanfallpreytoWesternsanctions.Aretheyreadyto
withstandthiskindofpressure?DoRussiancompaniesinthosesectors
haveenoughpartnersinAsia,incasetheyneedaccesstointernational
know-howorservicesiftheybecomethetargetofWesternsanctions?

Thereisabroaderquestion:HowmatureistheRussianeconomyto
weatherfurtherWesternreactionstoamoreassertiveKremlinforeign
policy?Inthetwenty-firstcentury,itisimpossibletobuildastrong
economyprovidingdecentlivingconditionsforone'spopulationwhilein
internationalisolation.ThisfactisunderstoodintheKremlin-duringa
meetingwithbusinessleadersonDecember24,PresidentPutinsaid:"To
expandthecapabilitiesofnationalbusinesseswealsointendtodevelop
economictieswithothercountriesandtakepartinintegration
processes."Butthistaskwillbefarmoredifficulttoachieveagainst
thepressureofWesternsanctions,whichdonotseemtobegoinganywhere.

Thecuriousstudentofhistoryandinternationalrelationsmaystill
wonderwhatistherealreasonforthesesanctions:disagreementsover
Ukraine,orWesternconcernsoveramoreassertiveRussianforeign
policyandtheprospectofRussiabecomingafull-scalepowercenterin
internationalrelations?Inreality,suchalternativereasoningdoesnot
exist:Russia'sexpectationofhavingitspositiononUkraine
acknowledgedbytheWestshowsthatamoreassertiveRussiaisalreadyhere.

AfterRussiaclaimeditsrighttoamoreassertiveforeignpolicy,its
economyhasfounditselfinafarmorechallenginginternational
environment.Sofar,ithasnotbeencompletelybroken,andRussian
societyseemsreadytoendureharshereconomicconditionsforthe
benefitofamoreambitiousforeignpolicycourse:atleast59percent
ofRussianssupportthecountry'sforeignpolicy.Butthisendurance
challengeissettocontinueatleastforthecomingyear.TheKremlin
hasnochoicebuttofurtherimplementthemeasuresnecessarytobuild
aneconomyadequateforacountryaspiringtobeatruepowercenterin
currentinternationalrelations.
[returntoContents<#n0>]

#9
RussiaDirect
www.russia-direct.org
January4,2015
WhattoexpectfromRussia'sSyriapolicyin2016
MoscowhasbeenrelyingonhardpowerinSyriaoverthelastthree
monthsandrisksfallingintoatrapofover-relianceonitnextyear.
Whilethisstrategyhasyieldedsomeresults,suchasengagingthe
U.S.-ledcoalitionintomoredecisivetalks,in2016thesameapproach
islikelytoproveitsinefficiency.
ByYuriBarmin
YuryBarminisastrategicriskconsultantbasedinMoscow.Heholdsan
MPhilDegreeinInternationalRelationsfromtheUniversityof
Cambridge.HisinterestsincludeRussianforeignpolicyandthepolitics
oftheGulf.FollowhimonTwitterat@yurybarmin.

VladimirPutin'sdecisiontointerveneinSyriainlateSeptemberwas
undoubtedlyoneofthemostimportanteventsinglobalpoliticsthis
year.InvolvementinaconflictoutsidetheformerSovietUnionmeans
thattheRussiaistakingashotatregionalleadership,ifnotat
contestingtheglobalroleoftheU.S.altogether.NowinSyria,there
isnogoingbackforMoscow.Whileitisnotentirelyclearforhowlong
Russiacansustainitsmilitarycampaignatthepresentlevel,itwill
needtoactaccordinglytoitsnewlystatedgeopoliticalambitions.

Upuntillate2015RussiawasverycautiousinitsSyriapolicy.It
openlysupportedSyrianPresidentBasharAssadbutwasreluctanttomake
moreassertivemovesfearingthatitwouldputRussiaatoddswithother
regionalpowers,suchasSaudiArabiaandTurkey.

Thesecondhalfof2015broughtaboutadramaticchangeinRussia's
visionofSyria.ThedeploymentofRussianwarplanestothecountryand
theirmilitaryinvolvementintheconflictputMoscowintheheartof
theconflict.ItisremarkablehowtherhetoricaboutRussianPresident
VladimirPutin'sattemptstotakepartinthesettlementofthecrisis
haschangedsincelate2014.

Ayearago,powerslikeSaudiArabiaandQatarwerevoicingtheiranger
overRussia'ssupportofAssadsayingthatMoscowhasnoroletoplayin
thiscrisis.NowthattheSyrianwarhasbecomeRussia'swar,theyhave
acceptedMoscowasalegitimatestakeholderintheconflict,albeiton
theothersideofthebarricades.

BycementingitsmilitarypresenceinSyriain2015Russiahas
essentiallyguaranteeditselftheleadingroleintheSyriancrisisin
2016.Thisisespeciallyimportantgiventhefactthattherearehopes
nowthatstartinginJanuary,theSyriangovernmentandtheopposition
maystartnegotiationsonaceasefire.

WhilepreviouslyRussia'sparticipationindiplomaticeffortstobring
theSyrianwartoanendweren'tbackedbyanyinfluenceontheground,
thistimethereishardpowerthatMoscowmayemployatanytime,
meaningthatitsbargainingpowerinSyriahasincreasedmarkedlyin2015.

TheU.S.-Russiaresolutionthatcallsforaceasefireandpolitical
talksinSyriaislargelyaresultofthemilitarybuild-upinthe
countrythatMoscowcarriedoutinautumn.TheSyriancrisisisfarfrom
overandRussiawillneedtouseallofitsdiplomaticcloutto
guaranteeAssad'spresidencyforthetransitionalperiod.Asofnow
thereisadegreeofcertaintythatMoscowmayinfactachievethisgoal
sincesomeWesternpowershavebecomemoreflexibleontheissueofAssad.

However,itiswrongtoarguethat,withtheresolutiononSyriahaving
beenunanimouslyadoptedattheUNSecurityCouncil,violenceinthe
countrywillsubside.Someoppositiongroupshavealreadyvoicedtheir
pessimismabouttheplanthatRussiaandtheUnitedStatehaveproposed,
whiletheIslamicStateofIraqandtheGreaterSyria(ISIS)andJabhat
Al-Nusrahavenointentiontostopfightinginthefirstplace.

Moscowitselfisnotentirelysurewhetheradiplomaticsettlementof
thecrisisispossible,whichiswhyafurthermilitarybuild-upin
Syriaisstillpossible.Putinhashintedatthiswhenherecentlysaid
thatRussiaisusingfarfromeverythingitiscapableofandthatit
couldresorttoothermilitarymeansinSyriaifneeded.

ThisisprobablyakeyelementofRussia'sstrategyinSyriafor2016:
Moscowhaspreparedavarietyoftoolstobeemployedifnecessarybut
willprefernottoexpanditsmilitaryactivityinSyria.Thisiseasy
toexplaingiventhefactthatmilitarygainsinSyriahavesofarbeen
limitedandthereisnoclearexitstrategy.

SomeoftheseexistingoptionsthatareavailabletoRussiainSyriabut
havenotbeenusedyetlikelyincludetwonewairbases.Whilethe
RussianDefenseMinistrydeniesthatitneedsnewfacilitiesinthe
country,somereportsaswellassatelliteimagessuggestthatRussia
hasbeenconductingconstructionworkatoldSyrianbasesandthatits
helicoptershavebeenspottedattwosuchfacilities.

ItishardtoimaginethescopetowhichRussia'smilitarypresencemay
expandinSyriaduetothefactthatRussiahasaccesstovirtuallyany
militaryfacilityunderthecontroloftheSyrianArabArmy.

IntheeventthattheUNresolutiononSyriasucceedsandaceasefire
commencesitisstilllikelythatRussiawillcontinueitsmilitary
build-upinthecountry.AceasefirebetweenAssadandtheopposition
willmeanthatthesideswillhavetoconcentrateonthefightagainst
ISIS,JabhatAlNusraandotherextremistgroupsasopposedtofighting
eachother.

Russiawillhavetotakeoneoftheleadingroleswithinawider
coalitionagainstterroriststobackitsallyAssadbutalsotostay
relevantinthisconflicttoexertmorepoweronthediplomaticfront.

PreciselybecauseofthefearoflosingexistinginfluenceinSyria,
MoscowwillnotchangeitspositiononAssadandhisroleinthe
country.WhileWesternpowersseektoconvinceRussiathattheSyrian
Presidentisthecauseofthewar,PutinbelievesthatAssadistheonly
forcethatmaystopjihadists.

ButMoscowknowsitalltoowellthattheactofabandoningAssadwill
beinterpretedintheWestasitsweaknessandastrategicloss.Even
worse,itwillmeantheinabilityofRussianmilitaryprowesstoyield
meaningfulresults,whichwouldcastshadowontheentirestrategy
behindPutin'sforeignpolicy.

Allinall,itseemsthatMoscowwillfinditselfinadifficult
positioninSyriain2016.Whilereluctanttodoso,Russiawillneedto
maintainitsmilitaryforceinthecountryandwilllikelyevenincrease
itinanattempttosecureaspotofakeyplayerintheMiddleEast.
ConsequentlyapulloutfromSyrialooksmoreandmoreunrealistic
becauseitwillleaveRussiawithoutitsmainleveragainsttheWestin
thisconflict.

MoscowhasbeenrelyingonhardpowerinSyriainthelastthreemonths
andrisksfallingintoatrapofover-relianceonitnextyear.While
thisstrategyhasyieldedsomeresults,suchasengagingtheU.S.-led
coalitionintomoredecisivetalks,in2016thesameapproachislikely
toproveitsinefficiencyonceitbecomesclearthatrealterritorial
gainsofAssadforcesaren'tcommensuratewithresourcesthatRussia
investedinthecampaign.

[returntoContents]<#n0>

#10
TheUnzReview
www.unz.com
January2,2016
WeekThirteenoftheRussianInterventioninSyria:DebunkingtheLies
ByTheSaker

Eversincethefirstrumorsbegantocirculateaboutanimpending
RussianmilitaryinterventioninSyriatheInternetandthemediahave
beenfloodedwithallsortsofsillyrumors,mythsandoutrightlies
aboutwhatcould/wouldhappen.Theserumors,mythsandoutrightliesare
stillbeingspreadtoday,andnotonlybypro-USinterestgroups,but
evenbysupposedlypro-Russian"analysts".Allthisnonsensecompletely
obfuscatestherealityoftheRussianinterventioninSyria(butmaybe
thatwasthegoalallalong?)andtriestopainttheRussianoperation
asafailure.AfterthreemonthsofRussianairandmissilestrikesin
Syria,itisagoodtimetoaskthequestionofwhethertheRussians
haveachievedsometangibleresultsorwhether,assomearesuggesting,
thishasbasicallybeenabigPRoperation.

Thekeyissuehereiswhatcriteriatousetomeasure"success".And
that,inturns,begsthequestionofwhattheRussianshadhopedto
achievewiththeirinterventioninthefirstplace.Itturnsoutthat
PutinclearlyandofficiallyspelledoutwhatthepurposeoftheRussian
interventionwas.OnOctober11th,hedeclaredthefollowinginan
interviewwithVladimirSolovievontheTVchannelRussia1:

Ourobjectiveistostabilizethelegitimateauthorityandcreate
conditionsforapoliticalcompromise

That'sit.HedidnotsaythatRussiawouldsingle-handedlychangethe
courseofthewar,muchlesssowinthewar.Andwhilesomesawthe
Russianinterventionasatotal"gamechanger"whichwouldmarktheend
ofDaesh,Ineverbelievedthat.HereiswhatIwroteexactlyoneday
beforePutinmadethestatementabove:

Makenomistakehere,theRussianforceinSyriaisasmallone,at
leastforthetimebeing,anditdoesnotevenremotelyresemblewhat
therumorshadpredicted(...)Thereisnowaythattheverylimited
Russianinterventioncanreallychangethetideofthewar,atleastnot
byitself.Yes,IdoinsistthattheRussianinterventionisavery
limitedone.12SU-24M,12SU-25SM,6SU-34and4SU-30SMarenotabig
force,notevenbackedbyhelicoptersandcruisemissiles.Yes,the
Russianforcehasbeenveryeffectivetorelievethepressureonthe
northwesternfrontandtoallowforaSyrianArmycounter-offensive,but
thatwillnot,byitself,endthewar.

Iwasharshlycriticizedatthattimefor"minimizing"thescopeand
potentialoftheRussianoperation,butIchosetoignorethese
criticismssinceIknewthattimewouldprovemeright.

Whathappenedthenwasatypicalexerciseinhyperbole:manyputatively
pro-Russiancommentatorstookturnswritingeuphoric"analyses"which
dayafterdayspikedthepublic'shopesonlytothenlatercomecrushing
downindisappointment.Predictably,themorethegapbetween
expectationsandrealityonthegroundgrew,themorethecritiques
PutinandAssadcouldgloatabouttheRussian"failuretowin".That
kindofpseudo-analysisisbuiltonatypical"strawman"fallacy:the
ridiculousnotionthattheRussianintendedtosingle-handedlydefeat
Daesh.Sadly,"pro-Russian"commentatorsgreatlycontributedtothe
constructionofthat"strawman"bytheir(andnottheRussian
military's)completelyunrealisticexpectationsandpredictions.

FollowingthesecondweekoftheRussianinterventioninSyriaIwrote:

TheRussianforceissmallandvulnerable.Ofcourse,oneoptionforthe
RussianswouldbetoexpandtheairfieldnearLatakia,butthatwould
taketimeandmoreresourcesandmyunderstandingisthattheywantto
consolidatetheircurrentairfieldfirst.However,asastop-gap
measure,theRussianscoulduseRussian-basedbombers.IfIranallows
Russiatoconductin-airrefuelinginIranianairspaceorifIranallows
RussiatouseIranianairbases,thenmanymoreSU-34/SU-35SMor
SU-34/SU-30SM"airforcepackages"couldbeengagedinSyria.Intheory,
RussiacouldevenprovideherTu-22M3todelivergravitybombs,her
Tu-95MStodelivercruisemissilesandherTu-160todelivereitherone
orboth.Idon'tthinkthatthereisanymilitarynecessitytousethese
strategicbombersrightnow,butitmightbeagoodideatodosofor
politicalreasons-justtoflexsomemore'militarymuscle'andshow
theNeoconsthatRussiaisnottobemessedwith.Submarinelaunched
cruisemissileswouldalsowork,especiallyiflaunchedbyaRussiansub
intheMediterraneanwhichtheUSNdidnotdetect.

Andthisisexactlywhathappenednext:Russiabegantouseher
strategicaviationtoaugmenthercapabilitiesandtoshowtheWestthat
theKremlinmeantbusiness.Ithenconcludedbysaying:

Sofar,theKremlinhasdoneasuperbPRjobexplainingthatDaeshisa
directthreattoRussiaandthatitwasbetterforRussiato"fightthem
overtherethanoverhere".Thislogic,however,ispredicatedonthe
ideathataverylimitedRussianinterventioncantipthebalance.There
isaveryfineconceptuallinebetweentippingthebalanceandfighting
someoneelse'swarandthatissomethingtheKremlinisacutelyaware
of.Hopefully,thislinewillneverbecrossed.

TobefairtotheKremlin,sayingthatitisbetterto"fightthemover
therethanoverhere"isinnowayapromisethetipanybalance.But
thereweremanyRussiancommentatorswhodidsaythattheRussian
interventionwould,indeed,tipthebalanceandtheKremlindidnot
directlyrefutetheseclaims.SoIsuggestthefollowinggoalsettingby
theKremlin:

Primaryobjective:stabilizethelegitimateauthorityandcreate
conditionsforapoliticalcompromise
Secondaryobjective:tipthebalanceofthewarinfavoroftheSyrian
armedforces.
Havingdiscardedthesillystrawmanargumentsandwehaveestablished
therealRussiangoalswecannowevaluatewhetherRussiahasbeen
successfulornot.

FollowingonlythreeweeksofRussianairandmissileoperations,Assad
cametoMoscowandthefirstmultilateralnegotiations,whichbrought
togethertheforeignministersofRussia,theUS,TurkeyandSaudi
Arabia,tookplaceinVienna.Allthecountrieswhichhadunleashed
theiraggressionagainstSyriaunderthe"Assadmustgo"slogannowhad
toacceptthatAssadwasnotgoinganywhere.Thiswasacomplete
diplomatictriumphforRussia.Thisfirsttriumphwasfollowedby
anotherseriesoftriumphsattheUNSC.Inthemeantime,ontheground
inSyria,theSyrianmilitary,forthefirsttimeinmonths,actually
beganaseriesofcounter-offensivewhichslowly,butsystematically,
begantopushbackDaeshinmostsectorsofthefront.Soifthe
criteriais"stabilizingthelegitimateauthorityandcreating
conditionsforapoliticalcompromise",thentheRussianoperationis
nothingshortofatotalvictory,atruediplomatictriumphachievedin
averyshorttime.Inlessthanonemonth,theRussianssucceededin
makingAssad'spresenceattheheadofalegitimategovernmentin
DamascusanindisputablerealitywhichallAssad-hatershadtoaccept,
andtheconditionsforapoliticalcompromisewerecreated,atleastin
diplomaticterms.

Nowlet'stakeacloserlookatwhathasactuallyhappenedinmilitary
terms.Butbeforewedothat,letmerepeatonceagainthattippingthe
militarybalancehasneverbeentheprimaryRussianobjective,onlya
secondaryonewhichcouldbeachieved,orsotheRussianshope,inthe
processofachievingthefirst,main,one.Toprovemypoint,Iwill
havetorepeatagainandagainsomethingIhavebeenmantrically
repeatingforthepastthreemonths:the"operational-tacticalgroupof
theRussianAirSpaceForce(RASF)inSyria"(thatisitsofficialname)
isroughlyequivalenttojustoneaviationregiment.Withoutgoinginto
manydetails,youneedtoknowthatRussianmilitarytheoryhas
developedaverystrictsetofnormswhichoutlineingreatdetailthe
kindofforcesneededtosuccessfullyexecuteanyspecifictask.Whatis
absolutelycleartoanybodywithevenabasicunderstandingofwarfare
and,especially,airoperations,isthatonesingleaviationregiment
cannotbeusedtodefeataforcewithwellover100,000combatants
deployedacrossaterritoryofroughly150,000km2(justinSyria)
supportedbyanetworkofbasesandtrainingcampsinTurkeyandother
countriesoftheregionandwhichgetsaquasiinfinitesupplyof
weapons,combatantsandmoneyfromnumerouswealthystatesponsors.Ask
anybodywithevenasuperficialknowledgeofRussianmilitarytheoryand
he/shewilltellyouthatthisisnotthekindoftaskangiventoan
aviationregiment.Thosewhosayotherwisesimplydon'tknowwhatthey
aretalkingabout.

Whatistrulyremarkableisthattherangeofmissionsaccomplishedby
thisaviationregimentequivalentsizeforcehasbeenonewhichnormally
havebeengiventoanaviationdivision(aforceroughly3to5times
larger).Letmerepeatthat:thisregimentalsizeforcehas,forthree
monthsnonstop,successfullyexecutedtheamountofairstrikesnormally
giventoaforce3to5timesbigger.NowIdon'tknowaboutyou,but
formethissureisthesignofafantasticallysuccessfuloperation.
Askanymilitarycommanderhowhewouldfeeliftheforcehecommands
couldaccomplishnotjustthefullsetoftasksitissupposedto
accomplish,but3to5timesmore,andthisinrealcombatoperation.I
assureyouthatthiscommanderwouldbeelated.Thefactthatsomeare
stillcapableofspeakingofaRussianmilitaryfailureisasignof
eitherdishonestyorignorance(orboth).

Somepseudo-analystshavetriedtojustifytheirnegativeevaluationof
theRussianoperationbycountingthepercentagechangeintheterritory
controlledbythegovernmentforcesasopposedtoDaeshanditsallies.
Again,thisisacaseofeitherdishonestyorprofessionalincompetence.
ThefactthatDaeshcontrolsroughly80%oftheSyrianterritoryis
meaninglessnonsense.Notonlybecausethis80%oflandonlyincludes
20%ofthepopulationofSyria,butbecausetheverynotionof"control"
meansnothinginthecontextofthiswar.

Whatisreallyhappeningisthis:mostofthecombatoperationare
centeredaroundmajorurbanareas(cities)andspecificlinesof
communications(roads).Intermsofsmalltownsortherestofthe
countryside,itisnotreally"controlled"byanybody.Typically,when
thegovernmentforcestakevillage"A",theDaeshforcesgoto"B"and
whenthegovernmenttakes"B",Daeshgoesbackto"A".(Thoseinterested
inthesetacticalissuesshouldreadthisinterviewofaRussian
militaryspecialistwithagreatdealofexperienceofSyriatranslated
bymyfriendTatzhitMihailovich).Thegovernmentforcesarealready
overstretchedandarebarelycapableofmountinganoffensivewithout
havingtomovetheirforcesallocatedtothedefenseofkeycities.This
isalsowhytheSyriancounter-offensivehasbeensoslow:adirelack
ofmanpower.

Furthermore,sincetherealfightingcentersaroundurbanareasandkey
axesofcommunications,theveryuseofpercentagesofterritoryare
meaninglessinmeasuringthesuccessoffailureoftheseoperations.
TaketheexampleofAleppo:if/whentheSyriansfinallyfullyliberate
thecityfromDaesh,whichwouldbeamajorsuccess,thepercentage
shiftincontrolledterritorywillbeabsolutelyinsignificant.Yetit
wouldbeamajorsuccessforthegovernmentforces.

Noneoftheabove,however,reallyanswersthequestionofwhetherthe
RussianmilitaryinterventioninSyriahastippedthebalanceinfavor
oftheSyriangovernmentornot.Somesaythatithas,othersdenythat.
Mystrictlypersonalopinionisthatno,ithasnotor,Ishouldsay,
notyet.Buttherearesomesignsthatitmightinthenearfuture.What
arethesesigns?

First,thepressureonTurkeytostopactinglikearogue-stateledby
anirresponsiblemegalomaniachasbeenincreasingeversincethedowning
oftheRussianSU-24andthesubsequentRussianrevelationsaboutthe
Turkishregimeand,specifically,theErdoganfamily'sinvolvementin
theillegalpurchaseofDaeshoil.Sofartheregimeisholdingfast,
butitisclearlyhurtingpoliticallyandthetensionsarenowflaring
upinsideandallaroundTurkey.WhileIdon'texpectErdogantocavein
toexternalpressures,IdothinkthatthetensionsinTurkeywillend
uphurtingDaesh,probablyinaminorwayunlesstheconflictwiththe
Kurdstrulyblowsup,atwhichpointDaeshwillbeaffectedinamuch
moresignificantmanner.

Second,therearesomesignsthatDaeshisrunningintomilitary
difficultiesinIraqandpoliticaldifficultiesintherestoftheArab
world.ThefactthattheSaudishavenowfelttheneedtocreatewhatis
basicallyaSunnianti-Shiaterroristforce(akaofficiallyas"Islamic
anti-terroristforce")isaclearsignthatDaeshisnotlivingupto
theirexpectations.

Third,theRussiansarenowprovidingheavyartillerysystemsand
trainingtotheSyrianswhoarenowslowlybutsurelyacquiringthekind
offirepowerwhichtheRussianshaveusedwithdevastatingeffectiveness
againsttheWahabisinChechnia.

Fourth,whiletheRussianairoperationsare,bydefinition,incapable
ofdefeatingawell-duginanddispersedguerrillaforce,itcanplacea
greatdealofstressonitslogisticsandsupplylines.Italsoseverely
restrictsthemobilityofDaeshforces,especiallybynight.

Fifth,withthedirectsupportoftheRASF,theSyrians,backedby
Hezbollah,havebegunretakingcontrolofsomesegmentsoftheSyrian
borderwithLebanonandTurkey.Thatis,bytheway,oneofthemost
difficultyetcrucialtasksforthegovernmentforces:totakeasmuch
oftheSyrianborderwithTurkeyundercontrol(theIranianswilldo
thatwiththeIraqiborder).Thishasnothappenedsofar,anditwill
nothappeninthenearfuture,buttheeventsaremovingintheright
direction.

Butwhatwillreallydecideoftheoutcomeofthiswarisnotfirepower
butlogistics.Currently,theSyriansareatahugedisadvantage:not
onlyaretheshortonammunitionand,especially,spares,buttheir
entirearmamentisoutdatedandwaypastitstheoreticalservicelife.
TheSyriangovernmentforceshavealsosufferedterriblelossesin
manpowerbuttheSyrianscannotaffordafullmobilizationasthiswould
greatlyhurtanalreadysufferingeconomy.KeepinmindthattheSyrians
havebeenfightingthiswarforlonger(4yearsand9months)thanthe
SovietUnionfoughtWWII(3yearsand10months).Thefactthatcracks
areshowingeverywherearenormal.Infact,theonlythingwhichthe
Syriansseemtohaveaninfinitesupplyofiscourage.

Daesh(andwhenIspeakofDaeshImeanallofthem,the"good
terrorists"andthe"badones")is,sofar,enjoyingaquasilimitless
supplyofcombatants,equipment,suppliesand,mostimportantly,money.
WiththefullbackingoftheUSA,SaudiArabia,Qatar,Turkey,Israel
andmanyEuropeancountries,thisishardlysurprising.Daeshalso
enjoysahugegeographicaladvantagebecauseitcanuseTurkey,Jordan
andIraqasarearbaseandsafeheaven.

Makenomistakehere,theSyriansaretheunderdoghereandthereis
nothingtheRussianscandotochangethat,atleastnotalone.Thekey
issuehereiswhatIraniscapableandwillingtodointhissituation.
IranhasalreadydonealotandIbelievethattheIranianswilldomore
butonlyifthereisnootherway.ItisnotthattheIranianslack
courageormeans,butthefactthattheyarealreadytakingahugerisk
inbeingsodeeplyinvolvedinthiswar.Iampersonallysurprisedby
thefactthattheUSA,especially,Israelhavenotalreadystartedto
denouncean"IranianinvasionofSyria",especiallysincetheUSAdid
nothaveanyqualmsaboutdenouncingatotallyfictional"Russian
invasion"oftheDonbass.ButifthenumberofIranianbootsonthe
groundgoesupthiskindofpropagandawillbeused(evenifthe
IraniansarelegallypresentattherequestofthelegitimateSyrian
government).

Sadly,theAngloZionistshavesucceededincreatedanimmenseandtruly
toxicmesswiththeirinterventionsintheMaghrebandtheMiddle-East.
JustasintheUkraine,thereisnosimplesolutiontostoptheconflict
andreturntopeace.IntheUkraine,theEmpireunleashedanauseousmix
ofNazisandJews,whiletheMiddle-Eastisnowthreatenedbyamassive
Takfiriinfestation.NeitherRussianorIranwilleverbeabletosolve
thisconflictby"winning"it.Thingshavegonewaytoofarandjustas
peacewillreturntotheUkraineonlyafterafull-denazification,peace
willonlyreturntotheMiddle-Eastafterafullde-Takfirizationofthe
region,includinginSaudiArabiaandQatar.Tothosewhowillaccuseme
ofbeingnaveabouttherealisticprospectsofriddingtheUkraineof
NazisandtheMiddle-EastofWahabis,Iwillreplywithafewsimpleand
basicquestions:doyoureallyandsincerelybelievethatpeacecanbe
madewithNazisandTakfiris?Doyouthinkthateithergroupwillsimple
"giveup"theirdelusionalinsanityandbecomea"normal"political
force?OrdoyoureallybelievethatonlyliberatingtheDonbassand
Syriaoftheseshaitansandleavethemincontroloftherestofthe
Ukraine/Middle-EastwillreallybringpeacetotheDonbassorSyria?

ThetruthisthatthewarintheUkrainewillonlyendwhenallofthe
Ukraineisliberated,justasthewarintheMiddle-Eastwillonlyend
whenalloftheMiddle-Eastisliberated.Youmightnotlikethisnotion
-Isuredon't-butrealityhasneverbeendependentonourlikesor
dislikes.Thiswillbealongwar.

[returntoContents]<#n0>

#11
TheNationalInterest
January3,2015
WhatRussiaSaidAboutNATOandWhyItMatters
ByThomasFedyszyn
homasFedyszynhasbeenaprofessorofnationalsecurityaffairsatthe
NavalWarCollegesinceretiringfromtheNavyin2000.Theviewsvoiced
herearehisalone.

NationalSecurityStrategies(NSS)ofgreatpowershavemanyaudiences.
VladimirPutin'slatesteffort,"AbouttheStrategyofNationalSecurity
oftheRussianFederation"wasissuedonNewYear'sEve2015.Heshould
hopethatthisforty-pagepublicationwillbereadbyhislocal
citizenrybecausetheinternationalaudiencewillneitherbesurprised
norenlightenedbyit.OfficialRussiansourcesarguethatPutinis
embarkingona"proactive"foreignpolicyinordertopreventRussia
frombeing"closedofffromtherestoftheworld."Infactthetough
toneofthedocumenthidesaverycleardefensivenessalongwiththe
suggestionthatRussiawillnotbeabletocompetewithitsnewly
labeledadversariesinthelong-term.Thisalonecouldleadtotrouble.

What'sNew

TheWesternpressishighlightingthatthisassessmentnamestheUnited
StatesanditsNATOalliesasRussia'sprincipalsecuritythreat,with
relationsreachinganewlowafterRussia'sannexationofCrimea.
However,thisthemeismerelyareiterationofRussia'sMilitary
Doctrine(December2014)andMaritimeDoctrine(July2015).Itdoesup
theanteofObama'sNSS(2015),whichlabelsRussiajustasanaggressor
inUkraineandCrimea,withouthonoringMoscowasaprincipalthreat.
NATO'smostrecentSummitDeclaration(Wales2014)alsofallsshortof
'threat'terminologybutdoes'condemn'RussianactionsinUkraineand
Crimea.

ThenewNSS'sdiscussionofthesituationinUkraineandotherso-called
'color'revolutionsisinstructiveintheRussianbeliefthatnotonly
aretheintelligenceservicesoftheUnitedStatesbehindthem,butthat
radicalsocial,nationalistandreligiousgroupsarebeingjoinedby
internationalNGOsandprivatecitizens.Shouldthissweepingand
comprehensiveallianceexistinanymembersoftheformerSovietUnion,
thereprobablyisgoodreasonforRussiatoexpectmanymoresuch
'color'revolutions.

Russia'sViewofNATO

RussianproofofNATOaggressionisthedevelopmentofitsRapid
ReactionForce(RRF)andthefactthatadditionalWesterntroopsare
beingstationedonthealliance'seasternborders.Thereisnomention
thatNATObolstereditsRRFindirectresponsetoRussianrevanchismin
CrimeaandUkraine,severalmonthsaftertheaggressionsoccurred.
FurtherthetroopbuildupinPolandandtheBalticsiscomposedof
rotational-notpermanently-stationed-forcesandtheirnumbersare
dwarfedbyRussiancounterpartsacrosstheborder.Clearlythedocument
authorsciting"NATO'smilitarybuildup"paidlittleattentiontothe
pitifulresponsemadebyNATOmembersofincreasingeachmember's
defenseexpenditurestoatleast2percentofGDP.Russiaismorethan
doublethispercentage.

ANuclearOption?

WhilethereislipserviceofferedtocurbingRussiannuclearpotential
intheNSS,thequalificationsthatfollowmakeitclearthatthisis
emptyverbiageandnofundamentalchangefromtheGerasimovDoctrine.
ThedocumentoffersthatRussiawillcontinuetomaintainitsnuclear
arsenalasadeterrentandwouldresorttothenuclearoption"onlyif
allothernon-militaryoptionsfailed."Ofcourse,Russiaretainsthe
prerogativetomakethisdetermination.

Russia'sEconomy

Perhapsitisintherealmofnon-militaryaffairsthatRussiawatchers
shouldpayparticularnotice.ThedocumentacknowledgesthatRussian
economicstabilityisindangerduetoits"lowlevelofeconomic
competitivenessanditsresource-dependenteconomy."Itnotesa"lagin
thedevelopmentofadvancedtechnologies,thevulnerabilityofthe
financialsystem...theeconomygoingoffshore...thestrengthof
theshadoweconomy."ItindirectlyacknowledgestheeffectofWestern
sanctionsbylabeling"ensuringRussia'sfoodindependence"astrategic
taskandcallingforincreasedgovernmentsupportforagriculture.Even
lookingthroughrose-coloredglasses,oneseesafalteringsystem
refusingtoentertheglobaleconomy-asystemthathaslost
attractivenesstooutsideinvestorsandcannotkeeppacewitheven
middlingcompetitors.

PerhapsonenewsworthyentryistheRussianassertionoftheexistencea
U.S.Military-BiologicalLaboratoryNetworklocatedinnationsbordering
Russia.Astoitsactualexistence,timewilltell.

TheRussianConstitutionrequiresthepublicationofanNSSeverysix
yearsandthisonewasjustslightlyoverdue,replacingtheMay2009
version.VladimirPutin'spronouncementsandearlierstrategicdocuments
preparedtheworldofmostofitscontentsandtheyshouldcomeasno
surprise.ItsveracityiscomparabletomostofRussianrecentofficial
announcements,butshouldn'tbegreetedonlywithsmirks.Afterall,it
isworrisomeifonlyPutinbelievesitscontents.

[returntoContents]<#n0>

#12
TheUnzReview
www.unz.com
January3,2016
CollapseofUkraine'sEconomyinFiveCharts
ByAnatolyKarlin
[Textwithchartshere
http://www.unz.com/akarlin/ukraine-economic-collapse/
]

Andmakenodoubtaboutit-acollapseisexactlywhatitis,andit
afflictswaymoreofthecountrythanjustthewar-wrackedDonbass.
UkrainenowvieswithMoldovaforthecountrywiththelowestaverage
wagesinEurope.

Gabonwithsnow?Saakashviliishopelesslyoptimistic.Thatwould
actuallybeabigimprovement!

GDPisat60%ofits1990Level

Asofthisyear,thecountrywiththemostpro-Westernrevolutionsis
alsothepoorestperformingpost-Sovieteconomybarnone.Thisisanot
unimpressiveachievementconsideringoutcomesherehavetendedto
disappointratherthanelate.Russiaitself,currentGDPatabout110%
ofits1990level,hasnothingtowritehomeabout(though"statist"
Belarus,defyingneoliberalconventionalwisdom,ataveryrespectable
200%doeshavesomethingtoboastabout).

Backin2010,althoughbyfartheworstperformingheavily
industrializedSovieteconomy,Ukrainewasstillperformingbetter
relativetoitspositionin1990thanMoldova,Tajikistan,andGeorgia.
Intheintervening5years-witha7%GDPdeclinein2014whichhas
widenedtoaprojected9%in2015-Ukrainehasmanagedtosliptorock
bottom.

Howdoesthislooklikeonamorehumanlevel?

HousingConstructionisSimilartoThatof5MillionPopulationRussian
Provinces

Withaquarterofitspopulation,Belarusisconstructingasmuchnew
accomodationasisUkraine.16millionstrongKazakhstanisbuilding
more.Russia-morethantentimesasmuch,eventhoughithaslessthan
fourtimesasmanypeople.

TheseasideRussianprovinceofKrasnodarKrai,whichhostedtheSochi
WinterOlympics,withits5millioninhabitants,isstillconstructing
morethanhalfasmuchhousingasallofUkraine.NowondertheCrimeans
weresoeagertoleave.

NewVehicleSalesCollapseto1960sLevels

TheUSSRmighthavefamouslyconcentratedongunsoverbutter,yeteven
so,evenintermsofanitemasinfamouslydifficulttoacquireascars
undersocialism,Ukrainianconsumerswerebetteroffduringthe
1970-1990periodthantoday.NowUkrainiansarebuyingasfewnewcars
astheyweredoinginthecatastrophic1990s,andfewereventhanduring
thedepthofthe2009recession.

AndevensomanyMaidanistscontinuetogiggleat"sovoks"and
"vatniks."Well,atleasttheynowmakeupforhavingevenlessbutter
thanbeforewiththeAzovets"innovativetank."Armatasarequakingin
fearlookingatthatthing.

DebttoGDPRatioatCriticalLevels

Andthisfigurewouldhaverisenfurthertoaround100%thisyear.

Notethat60%isusuallyconsideredtobethecriticaldangerzonefor
emergingmarketeconomies.Thisistheapproximatelevelatwhichboth
RussiaandArgentinafellintotheirrespectivesovereigndebtcrises.

Tobefair,theIMFhasindicateditwillbepartialtofloutingitsown
rulestokeepUkraineafloat,whichisnottoosurprisingsinceitis
ultimatelyatoolofWesterngeopoliticalinfluence.Andifasprojected
theUkrainianeconomybeginstorecoverthisyear,thenthereisafair
chancethatcrisiswillultimatelybeaverted.

Butitwillbeacloseshave,andsolongasthe"meetthenewboss,
sameastheoldboss"oligarchswhoruleUkrainecontinuesiphoningoff
moneybythebillionstotheiroffshoreaccountswithimpunity,nothing
canberuledout.

ResumptionofDemographicCollapse

Muchliketherestofthepost-SovietSlavicworld,Russiahada
disastrous1990sindemographicterms,whenmortalityratessoaredand
birthratesplummeted.ButlikeRussia-iftoalesserextent-ithas
sincestagedamodestrecovery,incidentallywiththehelpofa
Russian-style"maternalcapital"program.In2008,itreachedaplateau
inbirthrates,whichwasnotsignificantlyuninterruptedbythe2009
recession.
Sincethen,however,theyhaveplummeted-exactlyninemonthsafterthe
February2014coup.Thediscretenesswithwhichthishappenedtogether
withthefactthattherevoltintheDonbasstookafurthercoupleof
monthstogetgoingafterthecoupproperimpliesthatthisfertility
declinewaslikelyadirectreactiontotheMaidanandwhatitportended
forthefuture.

Thiscollapseisverynoticeableevenafteryoucompletelyremoveall
tracesofCrimea,Donetsk,andLuganskoblastswhichmightotherwise
muddythewaters(naturally,thedemographiccrisisinallitsaspects
hasbeenmuchworseintheregionthatborethebruntofMaidanist
chiliasticfervor).HerearetheUkrstatfiguresforbirthsanddeaths
inthefirsttenmonthsof2013,2014,and2015:

BirthsDeaths
2013350658441331
2014354622445236

2015329308450763
Furthermore,thisperiodhasseenahugewaveofemigration.Figurescan
onlybeguesstimated,butitissafetosaytheyarewelloveramillion
tobothRussiaandtheEU.

Theeffectsofthiswillcontinuetobefeltlongafteranysemblanceof
normalcyreturnstoUkraine.
[returntoContents]<#n0>

#13
Sputnik
January2,2016
Over400,000UkrainiansReadytoIntegrateIntoRussianSociety

MOSCOW(Sputnik)-Morethan1.3milliondisplacedUkrainianshave
contactedFMSsincethestartofthearmedconflictinsoutheastern
UkraineinApril2014.Over419,000havefiledasylumclaims,according
totheagency.

"RussiahasdoneeverythinginitspowertotakeinUkrainiancitizens
whohavebeenforcedtofleeUkraine.Over400,000peopleare
potentiallyreadytointegrateintotheRussiansociety,"themigration
agencysaid.

FMSestimatesthatatotalof2.6millionUkrainiansarecurrently
livinginRussia,1.1millionofthemfromthewar-hitsoutheasternregions.

AccordingtotheUNRefugeeAgency,Russiaistheworld'ssecondbiggest
recipientofasylumclaimsafterGermany.
[returntoContents]<#n0>

#14
www.rt.com
January4,2015
CrimeansvotetogiveupelectricitycontractwithUkraineevenifit
meansmorepowercut-offs

AsurveyorderedbyVladimirPutinshowsCrimearesidentswouldrather
breakanelectricitycontractwithKiev,thansignonecallingthe
peninsulapartofUkraine-evenifitmeansfurtherblackoutsthat
beganwhenapylonbearingpowerlineswasblownup.

Over93percentofrespondentsvotedagainstsigninganewelectricity
supplycontractwithUkraineinthepollconductedbytheAll-Russian
PublicOpinionResearchCenter(VTsIOM)asthecurrentcontractexpired.
Theresultswereannouncedbythecenter'shead,ValeryFyodorov,onFriday.

ThewordingofthecontractsuggestedbyKiev,whichdescribesthe
peninsulaaspartofUkraine,wastheapparentreasonforthenegative
vote.CrimeavotedtowithdrawfromUkraineinMarch2014.

Inaddition,94percentsaidtheywerereadytoputupwithminor
disruptionsinelectricitywhileRussiaisworkingtoprovide100
percentpowersupplytoCrimeainthefollowingmonths.Beforethe
secessionandpowercutsthatfollowed,Ukrainehadsuppliedalmost
threequartersofCrimea'selectricity.

"Sixandahalfpercenthavevotedforthecontract,while92.6percent
didn'tsupportsigningthecontractthatsaysCrimeaandthecityof
SevastopolarepartsofUkraine,"Fyodorovsaid.

About2,500peopleinCrimeaand500inSevastopolparticipatedinthe
poll,meaningthestatisticalmarginforerrordoesn'texceed4.5
percent,accordingtoFyodorov.

Respondentshadtoanswertwoquestions.ThefirstwaswhetherCrimeans
supportedsigningacontractthatdescribesCrimeaandSevastopolas
integralpartsofUkraine.Iftheanswertothefirstquestionwas"no,"
thenthesecondquestionaskedwhetherCrimeanswerereadytosuffer
electricityshortagesinthefollowingthreetofourmonths.

IfUkrainedoesn'tchangethewordinginquestion,Russiaismostlikely
toabandonthecontract,DmitryPeskov,theRussianpresident'spress
secretary,said,uponlearningoftheoutcomeofthepoll.Putinhas
alreadybeeninformedoftheresultsofthesurvey,headded.

ThevotewasorderedbyPresidentPutin,whowantedtoknowiflocals
approvedoftherenewalofthecontractwiththeUkrainianUkrenergo
company.

Theorderfollowedyetanotherpowerlinedisruptionthatoccurredon
December30whenanelectricitypylonwasblownup.Ukrainian
ultranationalistsfromtheRightSectorgrouphadalreadydamageda
pyloninNovember,andthenpreventedrescueteamsfromrepairingit.
Sincethatactofsabotage,Crimeahasbeensufferingfromconstant
blackouts,promptingRussiatoboostitsownpowersuppliestothe
republicandflyinemergencygenerators.
[returntoContents]<#n0>

#15
Forbes.com
January2,2016
RussiaGivesUkraineABreakOnFuelCosts,ButPricesLikelyGoing
LowerAnyway
ByKennethRapoza

RussiasaidFridaythatitwasgivingUkrainea"discount"onnatural
gasprices,butfurtherdeclinesinenergypriceswilllikelymakethe
$17.8savingsamootpointanyway.BonusfortryingtobenicetoKyiv,
though,Gazprom.

Russia'smainsuppliertoUkraine,Gazprom,willcharge$230per1,000
cubicmetersofnaturalgasforfirstquarterdeliveries.Thepriceis
lockedinandwassignedbydecreebyPrimeMinisterDmitryMedvedevon
NewYear'sEve.RussiaandUkrainehavebeenlockinghornsongasprices
allyear.Europeanmoderatorshavebeenforcedtomediatethedispute,
whichhasoftenledGazpromtostopdeliveriesofgastoUkraine.

Thelowerpriceismostlyreflectedbyfallingnaturalgasfuturesin
themarketandnotMoscowsubsidies,asintheoldendayswhenthetwo
countrieswereonspeakingterms.Ukrainewilllikelyenduppayinga
bitmorethanmarketratebecauseenergypricesareseeingfallingto
thelow$30sinthefirsthalfofnextyearanyway.Loweroilprices
tendtotranslateintolowernaturalgaspricesaswell.

BPCEOBobDudleysaidinaBBCinterviewthisweekendthatoilfutures
willhittheir"lowpoint"inthefirstquarterof2016before
stabilizingbytheendoftheyear."Pricesaregoingtostaylowerfor
longer,wehavesaiditandIthinkweareinthisforacoupleof
years.Forsure,thereisaboom-and-bustcyclehere,"Dudleysaid.Oil
pricesfell34%in2015duetoprolongedglobaloversupplyand
lacklusterdemandfromChina.
Februaryoilfuturesare$37,havingfalleninDecembertotheirlowest
pointsincetheGreatRecession.TheRussianrublecontinuestotrack
oil.Thecurrencyweakenedto73tothedollar,itslowestlevelever.

Meanwhile,UkrainecontinuestodealwiththeRussiansinEastUkraine.
CrimeaisessentiallyfullysanctionedbytheU.S.government,and
UkraineisforcedwithpayingtheRussians-thebaneoftheirexistence
nowadays-some$3billioninoverduedebts.

Naftogazsaidlastweekthatit'sbeengettingalotofitsgasandoil
suppliesfromEurope,buttheoriginofthatfuelislikelytobeRussian.
[returntoContents]<#n0>

#16
www.thedailybeast.com
January4,2016
Khodorkovsky:FromRussianMulti-Billionaireto'Murderer'?
Putinjusthatesthisguy.Jailedformorethanadecade,thenforced
intoexile,theformerheadofYukosoilisnowchargedwithmurder.
ByAnnaNemtsova

MOSCOW-AlothasbeenhappeningtoformeroiltycoonMikhail
KhodorkovskyinRussiasinceheleftthatcountry.The52-year-old
oppositionleader,whonowlivesinexileinEurope,isonceagain
wantedbytheRussiancourts-andthistimeKhodorkovskyisaccusedof
murder.

Theonce-powerfulowneroftheYukosoilcompanyhasalreadyspentover
10yearsinRussianprisonsforallegedfraud,andclearlyhasno
intentionofgoingbacktobelockedupagain.ButdaysbeforeChristmas
theRussianInvestigativeCommitteeissuedaninternationalwarrantfor
hisarrestandthecourtinMoscowendorsedit.

TheallegedcrimeinvolvesthemurderofamayorinSiberiabackin
1998,andgivenhowlongKhodorkovskywasinprisonwithoutthese
chargesbeingbroughtagainsthim,onemightassumetherealcrime,in
theviewofRussianPresidentVladimirPutin,wasrathermorerecent.

Afewdaysbeforethedecision,Khodorkovskyspokeatapressconference
inLondon:"ArevolutioninRussiaisinevitable,"theformeroiltycoon
said.

ManyinMoscowwere,shallwesay,irritated?AndnotonlyPutin's
partisans.Evenifpeoplewouldlikelessofaheavyhandfromthe
Kremlinandmorefreedomtoexpressthemselves,they'rehopingfor
modernityandstability,notupheaval.

InthewakeofKhodorkovsky'sremarks,pressureonhissupporters
increasedbothinMoscowandSt.Petersburg.Severaldozenpolicemen
searchedforcriminalevidencearoundapartments,officesandevena
privatevehiclethatbelongedtoemployeesofOpenRussia,acommunity
ofactivistssupportedandfinancedbyKhodorkovsky.Themovement's
website,openrussia.org,haspostedinvestigativereportsandopinion
piecesexposinghumanrightsviolationsandlarge-scalecorruptionamong
topofficialsinRussia.

WhydidtheKremlingoafterKhodorkovskymorethantwoyearsafter
Putinpardonedhim?It'snotjustthepressconference,certainly.

TohearKhodorkovskytellthestory,Putin'safraidofhim."Putinsees
measathreat,economically,becauseofthepossibleseizureofRussian
assetsabroad,"Khodorkovskytoldthepress.TheKremlindeniedthat
Putinhadanythingtodowiththenewarrestwarrant.

ADumadeputy,DmitryGudkov,suggestedjusthowbigthemonetary
questionmightbe:"Authoritiesdonotwanttopayover$50billion
compensationtoYukos."

In2014,atribunalintheHagueruledtheRussianstatehadforced
bankruptcyonYukos,thebiggestprivateoilcompanyinthecountry,in
ordertoappropriateitsassetsandpreventKhodorkovskyfromentering
politics.

Thecourtimposed$50billionindamages,whichwasroughly2.5percent
ofRussia'sGDPatatimeitwasalreadyinrecession.

Sincethen,theDumahasbeenworkingtochangelegislationtohelp
avoidinternationalcourtdecisions,butbyputtingKhodorkovskyon
trialformurder,eveninhisabsentia,authoritiesshiftthefocusfrom
themtohim.

TohearKhodorkovskytellthestory,Putin'safraidofhim.
"TheyarepreparingtheworldforRussia'sdecisionnottopaythe
money,"GudkovtoldTheDailyBeastinarecentinterview.

ForKhodorkovsky,theexile'slifeinFrance,theU.K.,orin
SwitzerlandwasneverthesameasinMoscow,wherehehadateamof
youngactivistsworkingforhim.Hisformerpartner,andheadofthe
Yukos-Moscowmanagementcompany,AlekseiKondaurovtoldTheDailyBeast
thatthisthirdtrialagainstKhodorkovskyisMoscow'srevengefor
severalbigYukosvictoriesininternationalcourts,includingthe
StrasbourgCourtofHumanRightsaswellasTheHague.

"ThisisalsoarevengeforKhodorkovskyandhisOpenRussiasupporting
oppositioncandidatesatelections,"Kondaurovsaid.Lastweek,
KhodorkovskytoldBBCthathewasthinkingaboutaskingtheU.K.forasylum.

MeanwhileinMoscow,theoldpatternsfromSovietdissidentdaysdecades
agoarecomingback.FriendsintheOpenRussiacommunitycalledeach
otheronthephonewithaquestion:"Didtheycometoyou?"

ZoyaSvetova,ajournalistandhumanrightsdefenderatOpenRussia,
rememberedthearrestsofherdissidentparentsinthe1980s:"Whenthe
KGBcametoarrestmyfather,myhusbandhelpedtoburnsomefamily
papersnow,mycolleaguesdeletedocumentsfromtheircomputers.We
exchangeamemo,aninstructionforwhattodo,whentheycome:donot
openthedoor,immediatelycallyourlawyer,"SvetovatoldTheDailyBeast.

ManyRussianslookonKhodorkovskyfavorably-atleast33percentofthe
populationapprovedofhisreleasefromprisonin2013.Butseeingwhat
pressuretheoppositionmovementhassuffered,notmanyhavebeen
willingtojoin.

Lastyearonly2percentofRussianssaidtheywouldvotefor
Khodorkovskyinthenextpresidentialelections.

"Theideaistodiscredithimwiththemurdertrial,soRussian
politicianswouldnottakehismoney,peoplewouldbeafraidofworking
withhim,"KondaurovtoldTheDailyBeast.

Ofcourse,suchpressureisnothingnewfortheformertycoon.Vera
Chelysheva,theauthorofPrisoner#1,abookaboutKhodorkovsky,has
beencoveringhistrialsformanyyears."Icannotseehowthe
unbreakableKhodorkovskyIknowcouldbestoppedbymorefalsified
accusations,bymorepressure,afterwhathehassufferedthrough,"said
Chelysheva."Heisafreespirit,hewillnotstophisstruggle."
[returntoContents]<#n0>

#17
TheKremlinStooge
http://marknesop.wordpress.com
January3,2016
TheUnbearableUnseemlinessofPartnership
ByMarkChapman

Well,sometimesthefasteritgets
Thelessyouneedtoknow...

TheTragicallyHip,from"BlowatHighDough"
JimHoagland,atTheWashingtonPost,isupset.Notfurious,oranything
-itwouldneverdotogetangryatsuchasolid,reliableand
inspirationalallyasGermany.No,it'smore....miffed.Thekindof
vaguedisquietyoufeelwhenagoodfriendsuddenlyrevealsasideof
themselvesyoudidn'tknowexisted.It'skindoflikeGermanygotsloppy
drunkataninternationalpartyandthrewuponthecarpet,orinthe
punchbowl.Thekindofembarrassingperformancethatwillprobablyfade
withtime,butgoodfriendsshouldstepinimmediatelyandsetGermany
straight,incasethere'sadeeperproblemthatforeshadows,say,a
precipitousdescentintoalcoholism.That'skindofhowMr.Hoagland
viewsGermany'sunseemlyinsistencethatgoingintobusinessona
pipelinedealwithRussiaisjustastraightcommercialarrangement
(thanksforthetip,Warren).

PardonmewhileIseguesharplyawayfromthissubjectforjusta
moment,butIpromiseallwillbemadeclear.Inthesidebartothe
referencedarticle,fromtheverysamenewspaper,isapieceentitled,
"It'sTimetoCurbthisWidely-CommittedJournalisticSin".Thesin
referredtoisthecontemptinjournalismfortherequirementthat
disputableassertionsbebackedbyreasonedargumentorreferencetoa
reputablesource.Useofthepassivevoice,suchas"itiswidely
believed"isnotgoodenoughonitsownandisoftenacoverfor
somethingtheauthorwoulddevoutlylovetobetrue,butcannotproveis
true.Curiously,theauthorgoesontoassert,intheverynext
paragraph,thatastatementsuchas"itiswidelybelievedthatMH17was
shotdownbyasurface-to-airmissilefiredbyRussian-backed
separatists"isanexampleofareasonablestatement...becausealmost
everyonebelievesit.Theauthordoesnottouchuponthiswidely-held
beliefbeingthedirectresultofamassivecampaignofdeliberate
disinformation,andaninvestigationinwhichamajorsuspectwas
allowedunrestrictedaccesstoalloftheevidenceandaseatonthe
investigation.Butwecanonlydosomuchinonepost,andwesimply
can'ttakethatoneonrightnow.

Anyway,whereIwantedtogowiththatistoappointyouallmembersof
asortofjurypanel.We'regoingtolookatMr.Hoagland'spiece,andI
wantyoutowatchforexamplesofoccasionsinwhichMr.Hoaglandmakes
adisputableassertionthatisnotbackedupbyfacts-justan"ask
anyone"kindofsubstantiation.Ready?Let'sgo.

Ohjustabitofstage-settingfirst-Mr.Hoaglandispartofa
growinglobbygroupwhichisputtingpressureonGermanytobackoutof
itsdealwithRussia'sGazpromandothershareholderstotwintheNord
Streamgaspipeline,whichwoulddoubletheavailablesupplyofRussian
gastoGermany,makingGermanyasignificantlymore-importantgashub
forEurope.ItwouldalsoresultinRussiasendingonlydomesticsupply
throughUkraine'spipelinenetwork,forUkrainians'usesolongasthey
payinadvance,andnotsubjecttotransitfees.Everyarticleonthe
subjectmentionsthatUkrainereaps$2BillionannuallyfromRussiafor
transitfeesforbasicallydoingnothingexceptlettingRussiauseits
pipes,andWashingtonandBrusselsarebecomingincreasinglyworried
thatthispaymentmightbelosttotheUkrainianeconomy.Thisisatthe
heartoftheirobjectionstothenewpipelinecapabilityandthedeal
withGermany.TheAnglosphereknowsitisuselesstoappealtoGazprom,
andsoisconcentratingafull-courtpressonGermany.

Whileit'struethatGermanyhasearnedtheworld'srespectforits
overallperformancesinceWorldWarII,I'mgoingtodrawthelineat
"repeatedlytakingthemoralandpoliticalhighground".Isthatso?Was
theSiemensscandal,inwhichthecompany-whichwasGermanlasttimeI
looked-paid2.5billioninfinesforbriberyagoodexampleofthe
moralhighground?HowaboutDeutscheBank's840,000fineplus1.5
millionincompensationforfunnelingmortgageloansexclusivelythrough
mortgagebrokerstopeoplewithpoorcredithistory,andthenwiping
themoutwithmade-upfeeswhentheyfellintoarrears?I'msureeven
thoseofuswiththeshortestmemoriescanrecallVolkswagen's
deliberateinstallationoftest-cheatingsoftwareinover11million
carswhichwouldsensewhenatestwasbeingconductedandsupplybogus
emissionfigureswhichmadeitcompliantwithregulations,butotherwise
wouldallowtheenginetoemitasmuchas40timestheallowable
pollutants-whichhavebeenlinkedtorespiratoryillnessessuchas
bronchitisandemphysema-intheinterestsofachievingbettermileage.
Prettyhardtoseethatasanexampleofthemoralhighground,what?
NobodyisdumpingontheGermans,andeverycountryhasanelementwhich
ismoreinterestedinmakingmoneythanjustaboutanythingelseyoucan
name,butGermanynomorefitsthemoldofgildedsaintthananyoneelse.

SowhyisGermany'riskingitshard-earnedreputation'?Asanaside,
thatiskindofcomicalcomingfromthecountrywhichsystematically
blewthebasementoutofitsinternationalreputationinthepast5
yearswithitsdeliberateandopeninstigationofrebellionsin
countriesaroundtheworldasanexcusetosendinthewesternmilitary
tosackandruinthosecountries-UkraineandSyriaareonlythemost
recentexamples.Butlet'sleavethatforthemoment.Theimplication-
hell,it'sspelledout-isthatifGermanypersistswiththisdeal,it
willsacrificeitsinternationalreputationfordecency.That'snoteven
closetotrue,anditislaughableforHoaglandtosuggesttherestof
EuropeisgoingtolookdownitsnoseatGermanywhenitisGermanywho
underpinstheEuropeanCentralBank,whichbailsoutEuropean
spendthriftsandidiotswhocannotmanagetheirownmoney.Packyer
bagswe'regoin'onaguilttrip!No,we'renot.Don'teventhinkabout
it.Yes,Washingtonwillbepissedofftoseeitsowneffortstocontrol
theEuropeangasdistributionnetworkcometonaught,butisthat
somethingthatshouldkeepGermanyawakenights?Where'sthe
substantiationforhisstatementthat"thevastchangesintheglobal
energymarketsofthepastyearhavemadetheRussiandealobsolete,as
wellasdamagingtoEuropeanunity"?UkraineisnotpartoftheEuropean
Union,anditisUkrainewhichissquallingloudandlongforEuropeto
helpitbecauseRussiaisabouttotakeitoutofthegas-transit
business.Howisthe'Russian'deal(thepipelineisactuallyownedby
fivemajorinternationalshareholders,ofwhichGazpromisone,and
GazpromitselfisownedbytheRussianstatejusttoasufficientdegree
toconstituteamajority,50.002%)'obsolete'?IsEuropenowina
positiontodowithoutRussiangas?Itcertainlyisnot.Whatare
Hoagland'sgroundsforsaying"thepipelinedealwithVladimirPutinis
seeminglycorrupt"?WhatisPutin'sinvolvementinthepipeline?Zero.
Whatmakesit"seeminglycorrupt"?Askanyone.Everybodyknowsitis.
Lastly,whyshouldtheUnitedStatesgovernmentgetinvolved-atthe
Presidentiallevel,noless-inabusinessdealbetweenGermanyand
Russiatowhichitisitselfnotaparty?Letmeaskyouthis,Mr.
Hoagland-isthereanything,anythinginthewideworldthattheUnited
Statesconsidersnotitsbusiness?

WehaveaprettygoodideawhyWashingtonobjectstoanewpipelinedeal
whichwillbringgastoEurope,andnotevenmoreofit(twinningNord
StreamwillreplaceUkraine'stransit,notaugmentit),whichisthe
wholepoint-WashingtonandBrusselswantRussiatobeonthehookfor
subsidizingUkrainetothegreatestdegreepossible,becauseevery
dollarthatdoesn'tcomefromRussiahastocomefromtheIMForother
westerndonors.Similarly,forsolongasUkraineisRussia'sbuffer
transferzonebetweenitanditsEuropeangasmarkets,Russiahasto
caretosomeextentforUkraine'swell-being.Itcan'tletUkrainefail.
WhereasifUkraineisnolongernecessarytoRussia'sgasoperations,it
istotallyawesternresponsibilitytohealtheshatteredcountrywhose
civilwarthewestcheeredsoenthusiastically,andnoskinoffRussia's
noseifitcollapsesintocompleteruin.Alsojustbythebye,the
UnitedStatesgovernmentstillnurturesadreamwherebyitwillitself
becomeamajorsuppliertoEuropeofgasthroughLNGtankersand
terminals.I'mnotgoingtogointodetailagainonwhatastupididea
thatis,Ididsoheremorethanayearago.ForcingRussiatocontinue
supplyinggastoEuropethroughUkraineforcesRussiatotakean
interestandanactivehandinstabilizingandrebuildingUkraine,
althoughEuropemeanstokeepitforeverwithinitsownsphereofinfluence.

Anyway,let'sgetbacktoMr.HoaglandatTheWashingtonPost,before
thisturnsintoabook.Herewegoagain,with"Putin'sobjective".Is
thereanydetailabouttheconductofbusinessinRussiathatMr.Putin
doesnotrunpersonally?Granted,producingfar,farlessofthe
resourceyoudependontoheatandlightyourhomes,poweryour
industriesandathousandotherthingsmeansthatyouaregoingtohave
tocometotermswithwhoeverhasitforsale,andinEurope'scaseit
boilsdowntoeitherRussiaorthecreakingFrankenstein'smonsterthe
UnitedStatesistryingtocobbletogether,whichisacombinationof
ocean-transitLNGbytankerandapipelinefromdevotedtoadyallyQatar
throughSyriatoTurkey,whichthecurrentstubbornclingingtotheseat
towhichhewaselectedbyMr.Assadmakesmoot.

Andatthispoint,myfriends,Mr.Hoaglandsteppedofftheedgeof
reason.Indulgeme,forasecond.Journalistsregularlyconsultexperts,
itgivestheircopyauthenticity.Itseemsreasonabletheymusthave
lists,indescendingorderofreliability.Inthecaseofeconomists,
thefirstpageshouldbeheaded,"ReliableEconomists".AndersAslund
willnotbefoundonthislist.Page2couldbeheaded"LessReliable
Economists".AndersAslundwillnotbefoundonthislist.Thethird
pagecouldbetitled,"IdiotsWhoCanBarelyAdd,ButWhoAre
NonethelessConvincedThatTheyAreSmart".AndersAslundwillnotbe
foundonthislist.Thelastpagecouldbeheaded,"DisturbedWhiny
AttentionWhoresWhoAreToEconomicsWhatTheReverendJimJonesWasTo
OrganizedReligion".AndersAslundisonthislist.Morecorrectly,
AndersAslundisthislist.WhoistheeconomistMr.Hoaglandrelied
upontounderpinhiscase?Irestmine-AndersAslund.

AndersAslundtellsMr.HoaglandthattheNordStreampipelinedoesnot
makeeconomicsense.Whynot?Well,because"Consumptionofnaturalgas
intheEuropeanUnionhasfallenby21percentoverthepastdecade,and
theexistingGazprompipelineundertheBalticSeaisnowoperatingat
halfcapacity.AndGazpromisnoordinarystatecorporation.Itpursues
Russia'sgeopoliticalgoals,cuttingsuppliesorraisingpriceswhenthe
Kremlinwants."

IsometimeswishIwereKingHenry,sothatallIhadtodowasshout
"Whowillridmeofthistroublesomeeconomist???",andsomeknights
wouldrideofftoGeorgetownUniversityandhackoffhisheadwitha
sword(althoughinlightofitsdensewoodencomposition,abowsaw
mightbemorepractical).Thenhischowderheadedfoolishnesswouldbe
stilledforever.ItseemsthatthebiggeracoruscatingDayGloneon
megawattidiotyouare,themoreanxiousjournalistsaretodrawupon
andbroadcastyourelitistramblings,orperhapsheistheonlyonewho
willdoitforfree.

Yes,Anders,youbrightspark,you-EUconsumptionofnaturalgas
overalldecreasedin2014,by10.7%.DoesthatmeantheEUisimporting
lessgas?Well,no,actually,youeffinghammerhead,itdoesnot-in
fact,overthesameperiod,relianceonimportedgasincreased2.8%.How
canthosetworealitiescoexist?Why,becauseEUdomesticproduction
fellby10.6%in2014.Thedeclineinsomecountrieswasabruptand
dizzyinginFranceitdroppedby96.1%,inSpainthedeclinewas58.2%,
inBulgariaby35.3%,adropof18.7%inTheNetherlandsand14.3%in
Germany.OnlytheCzechRepublicandRomaniaincreasedproduction.The
'energyboom'inNorway-amajorproducerofEUsupplies-passedits
peakin2009andisinrapiddecline.EUoverallconsumptionmayhave
declined,butnotasrapidlyasdomesticproduction,whichmeanstheEU
ismorereliantonimportedenergythanever.Youcanrearrange
pipelinesanddeludeyourselfasmuchasyoulike,butyouwillnot
changethatfact.Ofcourse,itdoesn'timpactyourpontificatingone
bit,becauseyoudon'tseeit.Aslund,lestweforget,istheauthorof
"HowUkraineBecameaMarketEconomyandDemocracy".Hasbeensince
2009,apparently.Let'sskipoverafewhighlights,shallwe?"Ukraine
istodayanundisputedindependentstate.Itisademocracyandhas
transformedintoamarketeconomywithpredominantprivateownership."
I'llsay-70%ofitsGDPiscontrolledbyitsoligarchs."Ukraine's
postcommunisttransitionhasbeenoneofthemostprotractedand
sociallycostly,butithastakenthecountrytoadesirable
destination."Idon'tquiteknowwhattosaytothat.Notwithout
resortingtotheworstkindofprofanity.Infact,Aslund'svisionis
quiteabitlikeahypotheticalsituationinwhichthewestcaptureda
formerhardcorefascistcountry,didn'tchangeaGod-damnedthingexcept
theleader,andthenassuredthecitizenrythatitsformerpractices
wereactuallysignsofdemocraticprogressiveness.Abigfeature-in
termsofpublicationbyUkraine,notnumbersofattendees-ofthe
HolidaySeasoninUkrainethisyearwastorchlightparadescelebrating
thebirthdayofNazicollaboratorStepanBandera.Howmanyother
Europeanmarketdemocraciesheldsimilarcelebrations?Theideathat
Ukraineisclosertodaytoadesirabledestinationthanitwasin2009
stupefiescomment.

WhyisNordStreamoperatingathalfcapacity?AndersAslundandseveral
ofhisfellowdunderheadswouldhaveyoubelieveitisbecauseofa
decliningappetiteforRussiangas,andtheysayasmuch.Iguessthat
wouldbereflectedbyadeclineinGazprom'sexportstoEurope.Uh,oh-
Iseeaproblem.Gazprom'sexportstoEuropein2012were149.9BCm.In
2013theywere172.6BCm.Thatwasthehighestovera9-yearperiod-
almostthedecadethatAslunddescribes,inwhichtheEUisallegedly
consuminglessgas.Anditis:justnotlessRussiangas,andthe
relianceonthefigurewhichshowsdecliningconsumptionisaclassic
bait-and-switch.TheEUisusinglessgasbecauseithaslessgas.You
canalsoseewhytheUKisamongthecountriesattractinghysterical
westernpushbackforstonewallingontheNordStreamdealexportsby
GazpromtotheUKwentfrom3.8BCmin2005to16.6BCmin2013.

In2014,PutinaddressedalettertotheheadsofEurope,inwhichhe
highlightedthegrowingunreliabilityofUkraineasatransitcountry-
thisshouldhavebeenseenasadirectwarningthatRussiaintendedto
eliminatefurtherriskoftransitthroughUkraine,asGazpromhas
indicatedonpreviousoccasions.About50%ofRussia'sgasexportsto
EuropeasawholegothroughUkraine.WhenUkraineistakenoutofthe
equation,notonlywillNordStreamneedeverycubiccentimeterof
capacity,itwillneedmorethanthecurrentpipelinecanhandle.And
thenthereistheabsurdEuropeanThirdEnergyPackagerequirementthat
anycompanywhichownsthepipelinecannotalsoownthegasthatgoes
throughit,andmustreserve50%ofitscapacityfor"competitors"the
EUisokayforasinglecompanytobuildapipelineatitsownexpense,
butthenwantsthatcompanytogiveitscompetitorsafreeride.
Gazpromgotaroundthatbyforminganinternationalconsortium,which
willbuildandownthepipeline.Gazpromisashareholder.NordStream
IIshouldnotfallundertheThirdEnergyPackage,asitisasupplement
toanexistingandalready-approvedline,althoughDonaldTuskcontinues
toinsistthepipelinemustcomplywitheveryEuropeanregulationhecan
findpluswhateverhecanmakeup.ThePoles,forobviousreasons,are
verysupportiveofanindependentandprosperousUkraine-becausethey
willbepressuredtotakeasignificantshareoftheeconomicrefugees
ifitcollapses.ButthesignalfromMerkel-AKA"TheChancellorofthe
FreeWorld"-lookedprettyclearinherreplytoPutin'sletter,which
read(inpart),"Therearemanyreasonstoseriouslytakeintoaccount
thismessage[...]andforEuropetodeliverajointEuropeanresponse.
Whenwetakeallthesesteps,wecanbesurethatwehavereacheda
jointresponseforthecountriesthatfacethisproblembecausetheyare
gettinggasfromGazprom.Europeanstateswouldliketobegoodclients
butwewouldalsoliketobesureRussiangassuppliesarenotinterrupted."

Butthere'sanotherflyintheointment,onethatisnotmentionedin
politecircles:over50%ofUkraine'sdomesticgassupplycomesfrom
Russia,andUkraine'sownsupplypeakedyearsago.Ithasbeeninsteady
declineeversince.Therewasneveraquestionofwhowouldpayforthat
solongasEurope'ssupplywentthroughthesamepipes.Ukraine
regularlystalledonpayment,arguedoverthepriceafterithadalready
takenthegas,andwhenRussiasaid"nomoreforyouuntilyoupay",
justlaughedandsiphonedoffgasintendedforEuropeancustomersfor
itsownuse.SolongasEuropeangasgoesthroughUkraine,Ukrainehas
Russiaovertheproverbialbarrel,asalreadydiscussed.Butitis
importanttonotethatonceEurope'ssupplynolongergoesthrough
Ukraine,RussiahasnoincentivetokeepUkrainefromeconomiccollapse.
ThatmeansthatifUkrainecan'tpayforitsowndomesticsupply,up
front,thenit'sahardoldworld,Ukraine.Thelatestwesterndemocracy
projectwillbecaughtbetweenthelossofitstransitfees,lossofits
tax-freepreferred-trading-partnerstatuswithRussiaasapotential
memberoftheEurasianUnion(andwithit,itsRussianmarkets),a
crateringcurrency,lossofathirdofitstaxbase,andapartnership
withamultinationalentitythatinsistsonreformsandtheadoptionof
grindingausteritypoliciesinexchangeforlendingitanythingmore
thanemergencystarvationcash.

AndUkraine,indisputably,isanunreliablepartner.Partofthatisnot
itsfault,becauseitswesternsponsorsencourageittohateandcheat
Russiaateveryopportunitywhichpresentsitself,anditopenlygloats
overitsachievementswhenitripsoffRussians,rationalizingthatthey
areallthievesthemselvesandtoodrunktonotice.Kievproteststhat
itonlycheatsRussians,andisotherwiseashonestasthedayislong,
butitiseasytoseethatitconsidersanyonefairgamewhodoesnot
supporttheirvisionofUkraine.The"Soyuz"mainpipelinesupplying
naturalgastoHungaryandCroatiafromRussiaviaBelarusandUkraine
blewupacoupleofdaysago,insidewestUkraine,andthereisgood
reasontobelieveitwasadeliberateactofsabotagebyUkrainian
activists,whohavethreatenedbeforeonrepeatedoccasionstoattack
pipelinescarryingRussiangas.Iftheywereindeedresponsible,itwas
abitofanowngoal,sincethat'sthelinethatisusedtoreverse-flow
gastoUkrainefromHungary.Ukrainianactivistsrecentlyblewupsome
ofthepowerpylonscarryingnearlytheentireelectricalsupplyto
Crimea,apparentlyfrustratedbythecountry'sinabilitytoachievea
militaryvictoryinthecivilwaragainstitsowneasternregions.

FromBrusselsandWashington'spointofview,itisessentialthat
RussiaparticipateintherehabilitationofUkraineasaprosperous
monumenttoNATOexpansion.Becauseitfranklycannotbedonewithout
it.Russiaisunderstandablyunwillingtocooperateunderthose
circumstances,thescenariobeingwhatitis.Ukrainewillthereforebe
takenofftheboardasatransitcountry,anditsentirelivelihoodis
nowinperil.Thewestistryingtorectifyitsenormousblunderby
bullyingRussiaintocontinuingtosendEuropeangasthroughUkraine,
anditisnotworking.OneofUkraine'sgreatestfailingsisits
inabilitytoseewhoisleadingitintoruin,becauseitissomuchfun
tostickoutitstongueatRussiaandpullfaces.Havefun,Ukraine.

Anybodywanttosumthatupinacoupleoftrenchantlines?Oh,look:
JarodKintz,authorof"TheTitanicWouldNeverHaveSunkifitwere
MadeOutofaSink",wouldliketo.

"TheonlygiftIhavetogive,istheabilitytoreceive.Ifgivingisa
gift,anditsurelyis,thenmygifttoyouistoallowyoutogivetome."

[returntoContents]<#n0>

#18
Medium
http://medium.com
January1,2015
WhatRussiawantsin2016:Anewworldorder
ByDominicBasulto
DominicBasultowritesaboutinnovationforTheWashingtonPostand
foreignpolicyforRussiaDirect.Authorofthenewbook"Russophobia":
http://amzn.to/1NwjeU5

NowweknowwhatRussiawantsin2016.NotabiggerpieceofUkraine.
NottherighttopropuptheregimeinSyria.Nottherestorationofthe
oldSovietUnion.Nottherighttousenukesontheworldstage.No,
whatRussiawantsin2016isawholenewworldorder.

Rossiya1-thesameRussianTVnetworkthatgaveusthedocumentaryfilm
Crimea:TheWayHometoexplainRussia'sannexationofCrimea-isback
withabigger,bettertwo-hour"documentary"featuringanextended
interviewwithVladimirPutinthatgivesustheKremlin'sviewofthe
currentinternationalworldorder.

Itwouldbeeasytodismissthedocumentaryfilm,whichpremieredon
December20onRussiantelevision,asjustanotherbitofRussianstate
propaganda,exceptforthefactthatasurprisingnumberofhigh-powered
politicians,diplomatsandculturaltastemakersshowupinthe
film-JulianAssange,DominiqueStrauss-Kahn,JonStewart,LordDavid
Owen,ShimonPeres,PervezMusharraf,andyes,OliverStone(whoshows
upjust38secondsintothefilm).

Iprobablyshouldn'thavementionedOliverStonebecause,well,nowyou
knowthatthefilmmightjustbeagiantconspiracyflickstarring
VladimirPutinastheunreliablenarrator.Eversincethecollapseof
theSovietUnion25yearsago,suggestsPutin,theU.S.hasbecomea
hegemonicactorontheworldstage,turningEuropeintoavassalstate
andsystematicallyattemptingtosowrageandchaosaroundthe
world-especiallyintheMiddleEast-inordertostepintothevoidwith
its"illegal"attemptsatdemocracypromotion.

AsPutinsuggestsinaseriesofinterviewclips,theworldforever
changedwiththecollapseoftheSovietUnionin1991.(Coincidentally
thisisthesameyearthatformerPresidentGeorgeH.W.Bushfirst
mentionedthe"newworldorder"inaspeechaboutIraq.)Inthe1990s,
then,abipolarworldmorphedintoamultipolarworld,butallthe
participantsofthepost-Yaltasystemcontinuedtoplaybytheoldrules.

Well,kindof.Itdependsonhowyoudefine"playbytherules."

That'swherethe"WorldOrder"documentaryactuallybecomesinteresting.
Putinsuggeststhatalltheoldrulessetintoplacetopreventanew
globalwaraftertheendofWorldWarIIhavebeenignoredagainand
againbytheU.S.ThewholepointoftheUNSecurityCouncil,pointsout
Putin,istopreventonenationfromunilaterallyactingaloneonthe
worldstagetodestabilizetheglobalworldorder.

And,yet,that'sexactlywhat'shappenedeversincethe1990s.

Thefilmseekstolinkanumberofdisparateworldevents-the
disintegrationofYugoslavia,theAmericanmilitarycampaignsinIraq,
theArabSpringintheMiddleEast,theviolenceinUkraine,theMiddle
EastrefugeeflowstoEurope,andnowthemilitaryinterventionin
Syria-aspartofabroaderglobalconspiracybytheU.S.toremainthe
unchallengedglobalhegemon.Eventhenewtradeblocs-theTTIPandthe
TPP-areseenasawayfortheU.S.tospreaditspowerandinfluencein
newwaystoEuropeandAsia.

AllofthatwouldsoundlikesomebizarreJFKconspiracyhatchedby
OliverStone-theworldisouttogetRussia!-exceptforonethingthe
standardbitplayersinanyRussianpropagandafilmarenowheretobe
found.IntheCrimeadocumentary,youhadtheNightWolvesmotorcycle
gang,theCrimeanpartisans,andtherabidright-wingUkrainian
nationalistssettingschoolbusesonfire.Incontrast,anumberof
Russianactorsmaketheirwayontothestagein"WorldOrder"-notably,
ForeignMinisterSergeyLavrovandKremlinpressspokespersonDmitry
Peskov-butit'stheforeignactorswhodothebiggesttalking.

SerbianfilmmakerEmirKusturicaexplainswhyrefugeeflowsintoEurope
aresodangerous.ShimonPeresexplainshowheandalongtime
rival-YasserArafat-eventuallycametothenegotiatingtable,something
theU.S.hasrefusedtodowithRussia.DSKexplainshowthepowersthat
bewillstopatnothing-includingapotentialframe-upinNewYork-to
quashanyeffortstosupplanttheU.S.dollarastheunderpinningofthe
globalfinancialsystem.AssangeevensuggeststhattheU.S.drops
surveillancenetsovertheUNinNewYorkinordertomonitorand
preventdissentingopinions.

Inthefilm,Putinactuallycomesoffasoneofthemostrationalactors
ontheworldstage.(OK,OK,sothat'showthesepropagandafilmswork,
eh?)HillaryClintonisseencacklingattheideathattheU.S.finally
gotridofQaddafiinLibya("Wecame,wesaw,hedied").BarackObama
isseenclumsilyretreatingfromthemockeryofJonStewartaboutthe
failureoftheU.S.toenunciateanykindofpolicyfortheMiddleEast.

AsPutinnotesinthefilm,warisaninescapablerealityof
geopolitics.What'schangedoverthepast25years,though,ishowwe
wagethiswarandwhocontrolstheveryconceptofwar.War,saysPutin,
shouldbecivilized,transparent,understoodandcontrolled.Andthere
shouldalwaysbeadiplomaticoptiontoendanywar.Butaswe'reseeing
nowwithISIS,theverynotionof"war"seemstobeslippingawayfrom
us.Wenolongerknowwhowearefighting,orwhy.Andtheruleskeep
seemingtochange.

Putinalsooffershisviewof"interests"inthegeopoliticalcontext.
Everynationhas"interests,"hesuggests.Whatareneededaregeneral,
transparentrulesofthegamesothateachnationcanpursueitsown
interests.Iftherulesareroutinelybroken,orevenworse,ifdouble
standardsareappliedintheinterpretationoftheserules,that'swhen
theproblemsstart.

Cut,splice,cut,splice...Youcancomeupwithyourowninterpretation
ofthecurrentworldorder.Yet,it'shardtosetasidethenotionthat
theworldisonceagainonedgeandthattheworldneedsRussiatoplay
animportantroletokeepthingsinbalance.That'stheproblemwith
multipolarity-it'snotenoughjusttohaveoneglobalhegemon.

Inhindsight,italmostseemslikeRussiaactuallygotthingsright
afterthebreak-upoftheSovietUnion.NATOadvancingtoRussia's
bordersafterthecollapseoftheSovietUnionprobablywasn'tagood
thing.TheU.S.playingdivideandconquerintheMiddleEastwas
certainlynotagoodidea,giventheriseofISISandthemassive
refugeeflowsintoEurope.

There'saclipofPutinfromthe1990s,statinghisoppositiontothe
bombingofYugoslavia.ThereareclipsofPutinfromhisrecentUN
speechinNewYork,inwhichheoutlinedthescopeoftheproblems
facingtheworldtoday.Therearerepeatedouttakesfrompoliticians
acknowledgingthat,inhindsight,Russiahasbeenmoreprogressivethan
theU.S.inrecognizingthechangingcontoursofglobalaffairssince
thebreakupoftheSovietUnion.

Andthat'sreallythepoint:thattheworldhasforeverchangedsince
thebreak-upoftheSovietUnion,aneventthatPutinhasfamously
describedasthebiggestcatastropheofthe20thcentury.Overthelast
25years,thebipolarworldbecameamultipolarworld,buttheU.S.
continuestoignorethisfact.Itcontinuestodividetheworldinto
"good"and"evil,"withoutanyregardfortraditions,historyor
culture.Itcontinuestoportrayitselfasthe"moralleader"ofthe
freeworld,atermthatPutindismissesasaclichoftheColdWarera.

MassiverefugeeinflowsintoEuropeandtheriseofISISaretwoevents
thatprobablynobodypredicted25yearsago,butnowthey'rehere,and
Russiaisprovingthemorewillingandagileofthetwoformer
superpowerstocreateaNewWorldOrder.UntilsomeonetreatsRussiaas
anequal,itwillcontinuetorageagainstthemachine.Thatmightnot
soundsoterrible,exceptforoneveryterrifyingdetail:Russiastill
hasnukesandisn'tafraidtousethem.

[returntoContents]<#n0>

#19
TheAtlantic
December30,2015
TheWorldAccordingtoRussia
AdocumentaryonstatetelevisiongivesaglimpseofVladimirPutin's
philosophy.
ByJeffreyTayler
JEFFREYTAYLERisacontributingeditoratTheAtlanticandtheauthor
ofsevenbooks.

"Doyourealizewhatyouhavedone?"VladimirPutindemandedatthe
UnitedNationsinSeptember.Thequestionwasarebuketothe
American-ledblocofcountriesthatinitiallyviewedwithoptimismthe
ArabSpring,whichbeganfiveyearsagothismonth,buthassincegiven
waytochaosandIslamistviolenceacrossonce-stablepartsofthe
MiddleEastandNorthAfrica.Thoseevents,andmuchelse,look
differentwhenviewedfromRussiathantheydofromtheUnitedStates,
andadocumentarythatairedrecentlyonRussianstatetelevisionhelps
explaintheworldviewbehindPutin'squestion.

Thetwo-hour-plusfilm,Miroporyadok(WorldOrder),explores,inthe
wordsofitsnarratorVladimirSolovyov,"whatishappeningwithus
[Russians],whatsortofworldwehaveinheritedfromourparents,and
whatsortofworldwewillleavetoourchildren."Partlythrough
interviewswiththeRussianpresidenthimself,italsooffersawindow
onPutin'sownrealpolitikperspective,onethatI'vefoundtobewidely
sharedthroughoutRussiaovermanyyearsoflivinginthecountry-a
worldviewaccordingtowhichinternationalrelationsconsistof
competingblocsofnationspursuingtheirinterests,andtheviolation
ofsovereigntyisarecipeforinstability.Thisstandsincontrastto
Obama'sownposition,whichhestatedattheUNtwoyearsago,that
"sovereigntycannotbeashieldfortyrantstocommitwantonmurder,or
anexcusefortheinternationalcommunitytoturnablindeyetoslaughter."

"Ibelieve,"PutintellsSolovyov,"thatnooneshouldeverimposeany
sortofvaluesheconsiderscorrectonanyone.Wehaveourownvalues,
ourownconceptionsofjustice."Putindoesn'tnamenameshere,butthe
implicationisclearthroughout:WorldOrderendeavorstoincriminate
Americanforeignpolicyandplacetheblameforthecurrentchaosinthe
MiddleEastontheUnitedStates.Thefilm'santi-Americanismissubtle
butrelentless,andthespincomesmostlyfromomissionofrelevant
facts.AndthoughitoriginatedwithintheRussianstatepropaganda
machine,someofitscriticismsofwrongheadedU.S.policiesand
blunderinginterventionsintheMiddleEastsinceSeptember11,2001,
wouldgiveAmericanliberals,centrists,andevenafewconservatives
littlecausefordispute.Yetthedocumentarygoesfurther,leavingthe
strongimpressionthatgreedy,bungling,incorrigiblymyopic
conspirators"fromacrosstheocean"(aphrasePutinusesrepeatedlyin
thefilmtodescribetheU.S.leadership)bentonworlddominationare
toblameRussiacomesoffasunjustlydemonizedandRussiansthemselves
forcedtosuffereconomicallyasaresult.

Thelastpointisnotstated,butisimplied,andgivesanotherclue
abouthowtheworldlooksfromRussia.ForRussians,toadegree
unthinkableintheUnitedStates,foreignpolicyisalsodomestic
policy,notleastbecausetheirNearAbroadincludesUkraine,withwhich
theirtiesofblood,history,andcultureremainintimate.Andthanksto
multipleinvasionsofRussiaduringthe19thand20thcenturies,a
preoccupationwithnationalsecurityandnationalpridefigurestrongly
inRussianpolitics,withthepossibilityofwarnotatallremote.A
philosophyofrealpolitik-andnot,say,valuespromotion-wouldcome
naturallyunderthecircumstances.

Indeed,asthefilmtellsit,therootofallinternationalevilsisthe
Americanpenchantfordemocracy-spreading,bothsubtle(viaU.S.support
for"colorrevolutions"inthepost-Sovietsphere)andovert(asin
overthrowingSaddamHussein).RussianForeignMinisterSergeiLavrov
declaresthattheArabSpringwasfomentedfromabroad,disregardingthe
MiddleEasternregion'swidespreadpopulardiscontentwithofficial
corruption,politicalstasis,andlackofjobopportunities.TheUnited
Statesintervenesdespitebitterexperiencewithinlivingmemorythe
AmericandirectorOliverStoneappearsonscreentotellviewersthat
"Americadidn'tlearnthelessonofVietnam,whichisyoushouldn'tgo
aroundinvadingothercountries."

ButPutindenieschidingObamadirectlyattheUNfortheconsequences
oftheArabSpring."Iwasn'tsayingthis[toPresidentObama]"Putin
tellsSolovyov,buttotheconstellationofleaders,bothAmericanand
European,whohavebeenmeddlinginMuslimlandssince2001."Ihave
alwaysbeentelling[theseleaders]thattheyhavetoactcarefully.
It'swrongtoimposeone'sscheme...ofideasconcerninggoodandevil,
orinthiscase,goodanddemocracy,"oncountries"withdiffering
cultures,adifferentreligion,withothertraditions.Butfrankly,no
onelistens,becausetheyapparentlyconsiderthemselvesinfallibleand
great."Noone,headds,holdsthoseleadersaccountable,whateverthe
outcome.Whenan"operation"producesthewrongresults,Putinsays,the
(again,unnamed)leadersinquestionjustsay,"Ohwell.Next!"After
all,"They'regreatandsittingacrosstheocean,thedollaristhe
world'scurrency,theyhavethebiggesteconomyintheworld."

The"operations"towhichPutinrefersinclude,ofcourse,the2003Iraq
war,whichRussia,France,andGermanyopposed.Then-FrenchPresident
JacquesChiraq,Putinclaims,evenforesawthatterroristattacksin
Europe,resemblingthosethatoccurredinParisthisyear,couldgrow
outoftheanarchythatwouldresultfromSaddam'soverthrow.Anotheris
theimpositionofano-flyzoneoverLibyain2011(topreventthe
regimefromusingitsairforcetostageamassacre-afactthatgoes
unmentioned).Thefilmreplaysvideoofthen-SecretaryofStateHillary
Clinton'sremark,deliveredwithacallouslaugh,aboutLibyanstrongman
MuammarQaddafi'ssubsequentdeath-"Wecame,wesaw,hedied!"-followed
byfootageofthetyrant'sbrutalmurder,whichdriveshomethe
real-lifeconsequencesoftheinterventionanditsbloodyaftermath.
(Eerily,thefilmalsoshowsQaddafiaddressingArableadersata2011
ArabLeaguesummit,andasking,afterSaddamHussein'sexecution,"Who
amongyouisnext?")

TheWikileaksfounderJulianAssangealsomakesanappearance,citing
cablesrevealingU.S.effortstounderminetheregimeofSyrian
PresidentBasharal-Assad-thoughAmericanofficialscontinuetomaintain
thatAssadmustgoeventually,thecablesinquestionmostlikely
concernWikileaksrevelationsmadein2006.ThefilmshowsSyrians
lamentingthechaosthepresumablyAmerican-backedterroristshave
unleashed.NomentionismadeofAssad'smurderouscrackdownonthe
demonstrationsthatsetofftherevolt,orofthebarrelbombsdeployed
againstcivilianstothisdayatgreatcosttocivilianlife,orofthe
U.S.aircampaignagainstISIS.

ButthemessageofWorldOrder,asthetitleimplies,extends
geographicallywiderandhistoricallyfurtherbackthanAmerica's
post-September11policiesintheMiddleEast.Asthefilm,and
presumablyPutin,haveit,therealproblemtodayisnottheriseof
ISISbutthebreakdowninrelationsbetweenRussiaandtheWest.Akey
causeofthisconflicthasbeentheeastwardexpansionofNATOsincethe
BerlinWallfellin1989,whichhasbroughtwithitthestationingof
troopsonRussia'sborderwiththeBaltics,planstoonedayadmit
Ukraine(andGeorgia),and,asaneventualresult,Russia'sintervention
inUkraine.

"Whydid[theWest]supportthecoup?"Putinasks,usinghistermfor
theuprisingsthatbroughttheousterofthen-UkrainianPresidentViktor
Yanukovychin2014.HecitesWesternfearsthatRussiawastryingto
recreatetheSovietUnion."Ithinkmanyofourpartnersseetheymadea
mistake,butjustdon'twanttoadmitit.Theytookadvantageofpopular
discontentnotjustwithYanukovych,butgoingbacktoindependence....
Doesanyonethinkthingsarebettertherenow?"

FewwoulddisputePutin'sdamningdescriptionofUkraine'spost-Maidan
straits:"Thestandardoflivinghasfallencatastrophically....What
havetheygotteninreturn?Possibly[Ukrainians]willbeallowedto
traveltoEuropewithoutavisa.Andpossiblynot."

ButPutinemphasizesthathedoesnotblameEuropeansforthepolicies
oftheUnitedStates,since,inhisview,theyarenothingmorethan
"vassals"takingorders"fromacrosstheocean,"atleastasfaras
foreignpolicygoes.Hesurelyunderstandstherelationshiptobemore
complicatedthanthat,butsuchanapproachplacestheblameforthe
standoffbetweenRussiaandtheWestonAmerica,andletshimmakea
directoverturetoEurope."Wedon'texpectourEuropeanpartnersto
giveuptheirEuro-Atlanticorientation"buttheywoulddowellto
"unitewithRussia"toresolve"economic,political,security,and
economicproblems....Wearereadytoworkwiththemandaren'tabout
topoutaboutthesanctions,"hesays.

Significantly,thoughheneverrulesoutcooperation,Putinmakesno
suchoverturetotheUnitedStates.Rather,thefilmcloseswith
Solovyovaskinghimthequestionusedtoteaseviewersintheintro:
Willtherebewar-WorldWarIII,inparticular?
Probablynot,Putinresponds,aslongasnocrazyindividualdecidesto
usenuclearweaponsandstartit.Butjustincase,"Russiawill
continueperfectingits[nuclear]weapons.Thenucleartriadformsthe
basisofoursecuritypolicy.Wehaveneverbrandishedournuclear
bludgeon,andneverwill,butitretainsitsproperplaceandrolein
ourmilitarydoctrine."

Theupshot,accordingtoWorldOrder:Putinconsiderspossiblearenewed
relationshipwithEurope,butseesnosuchlikelihoodwiththeUnited
States.ThisisoneareawheretheviewsfromWashingtonandMoscow
aren'tsodifferent-andthatisbadnews.

[returntoContents]<#n0>

#20
SicSemperTyrannis
January2,2015
http://turcopolier.typepad.com/sic_semper_tyrannis
Analternativeforeignpolicy
ByDavidHabakkuk

Beforediscussingwhatkindofforeignandsecuritypolicyis
appropriatefortheUnitedStates-orthecountriesofWesternEurope,
orindeedanyoneelse-itisnecessarytobeclearabouthowtheworld
hasbeenchanging.

InanarticlelastOctoberentitled'TheUnipolarWorldIsEnding',a
verygoodRussia-watcher,GilbertDoctorow,arguedthatweareactually
movingtowardsanewbipolarworld.Centraltohiscaseisthe
contentionthattheemergingChinese-Russianallianceisbasednot
simplyuponasharedfearofU.S.'containment'strategiesdirected
againstthem,butonideologicalconsiderations.

Failuretograspthisfact,inmyview,leadspeopletoassumeeither
thattheemergenceofwhatmightbecalleda'Mackinderite
consolidation'inEurasiaiseithernotreallyhappening,orislikely
tobeephemeral.

KeyparagraphsfromDoctorow'sarticle:

'OnthesideoftheEUandtheUSA,democracy,preciselyaspracticedin
America,neo-liberaleconomics,andhumanrightsintheirlatestand
mostexpansiveeditionthathasbarelytakenrootamongUSandEuropean
progressives,arethedefiningelementsofwhatconstitutesagood
society.Bydefinition,onlysuchsocietiesarestableandpeace-loving.
Thosecountrieswhichdifferwiththegoldenstandardmustbebrought
intolinetoensureapeacefulworld.Thiscanbedoneanywhichway:by
subversionornon-militarycoerciontobringaboutregimechange,orby
puremilitaryforceifnon-militarymethodsfailtobringaboutthe
desiredresults.

'OnthesideofRussiaandChina,thereisthebeliefthatfor
nation-statestruefreedommeansfreedomtofollowtheirowndevelopment
courseandtoorganizetheirsocietiesinkeepingwithnational
traditions.Moreover,theystaunchlydefendtheprinciplesof
Westphalia,meaningtheequalityofsovereignstatesand
non-interventionintheinternalaffairsofotherstates.'

(Seehttp://russia-insider.com/en/essay/unipolar-world-ending/ri10595.)

Thepiece,Isuspect,reflectstheinfluenceofRichardSakwa'sanalysis
ofthe'newAtlanticism',publishedshortlybefore,andavailableat
http://eng.globalaffairs.ru/number/The-New-Atlanticism-17695.

Onecanformulatethisintermsofdifferentresponsestothepatent
failureofMarxist-Leninistsecularisationofuniversalisticmillenarian
strandsinChristianity.ThelessondrawnbylitesintheUnitedStates
andWesternEurope,andthe'liberals'whodominatedRussianpoliticsin
theimmediatepost-Sovietperiod,wasthattheAmericannationalist
secularisationofthesestrandshasbeenvindicated.

ThebasisoftheideologicalchallengewhichPutinhasbeenarticulating
withprogressivelygreaterforceoverthepastyearsisthatthe
appropriatelessonofthefailureofMarxism-Leninismisthatallforms
ofuniversalisticmillenarianismleadnaturallytodisaster.

Suchaperspectiveleadsnaturallytoaviewofearlytwentiethcentury
historyinwhichtheheroesareneithertherevolutionaryradicals,nor
theliberals.Instead,theyareTsariststatesmenlikeStolypinorPeter
Durnovo,andintellectualslikethosewhoproducedthe1909'Vekhi'
symposium-which,astheWikipediaentrywilltellyou,wasthe
brainchildoftheJewishliteraryhistorianMikhailGershenzohn.
(Seehttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vekhi.)

Thisseemstohavebeenanimmenselyseriousattemptfindawayoutof
variouskindsof'cargocult'thinkingtowhichintellectualsin
societiesattemptingto'modernise'areprone.Amongmanyvariantsof
these,aswellastheMarxistandromanticnationalist,weretheliberal.

AndGershenzohnputquitebluntlyapointthatremainsrelevanttoday,
thatinsocietieslackingtheculturalpreconditionsforliberalism,a
brutalauthoritarianregimemayactuallybeanindispensableprotector
of'Westernised'lites,andofsuchprospectsastheremaybefor
relativelycivilisedformsof'modernisation'.

Inasentencethatwastoproveprescient,Gershenzohnarguedthat'so
farfromdreamingofunionwiththepeopleweoughttofearthepeople
andblessthisgovernmentwhich,withitsprisonsandbayonets,still
protectsusfromthepeople'sfury.'

In1917,hisco-authorNikolaiBerdyaevwouldpointtotheprophetic
natureof'Vekhi',inanarticleentitled'TheRuinofRussian
Illusions'.Towardsitsconclusion,hewouldwritethat'theRussian
"BolshevikRevolution"isadreadfulworldwidereactionaryphenomenon,
justasreactionaryinitsspirit,asthe''Rasputinism'',astheBlack
Hundredkhlystyism.'

(Seehttp://www.berdyaev.com/berdiaev/berd_lib/1917_280.html.)

AmongratherfewattemptsinthemainstreamWesternmediatomakesome
senseoftheideologicalchallengePutinismaking,adiscussioninthe
'Atlantic'byJeffreyTaylerofarecenttwo-hourfilm'WorldOrder'
presentedbyVladimirSolovyevisofsomeinterest.

(See
http://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2015/12/russia-putin-miroporyadok/422196/

.)

Apparentlythereisasubtitledversionofthewholeat
http://www.liveleak.com/view?i=cf6_1451260176.

Ingeneral,however,onecanseefewsignsthatWesternliteshaveany
kindofgraspoftheideologicalchallengetheyface.

Anotherfeatureofthenewbipolarworldisthatweareseeinganew
nucleararmsrace,asindeedtheClinton-eraDefenseSecretary,William
J.Perry,notedrecently.

(See
http://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/the-new-nuclear-arms-race/2015/12/11/83445bc0-a021-11e5-bce
4-708fe33e3288_story.html

.)

However,onceagainWesternliteshaveverylittlegraspofwhathas
beenhappening.Ifonecannotgrasptheideologicaldimensionsofthe
'NewColdWar',youwillobviouslynotbeabletograspthemilitaryones.
AtthetimewhenitwasbecomingcleartothinkingpeopleintheSoviet
litethattheMarxist-LeninistsecularisationofChristianeschatology
deservedthecontemptwhichfigureslikeBerdyaevhadaccordedit,they
confrontedaquestionastowhattheColdWarwasabout.

Partofthe'cargocult'thinkingofthe'EightiesinRussiawasthat
theColdWarhadessentiallybeenaboutideology-inwhichcase,
Westernnotionsof'rollback'and'liberation'couldbeseenasboth
justifiedandintheinterestsofRussians.

AsWilliamJ.Perryappearstobebeginningtorealise,Westernpolicies
couldhardlyhavebeenbettercalculated,ifwehadactuallywantedto
convinceRussiansthiswas'cargocult'thinking.

Tocutaratherlongstoryshort,itisclearthatamainstreamRussian
officialperceptionisnowthatWesternstrategieshaveallalongbeen
aimedat'escalationdominance',withtheaimofdestroyingnotsimply
communismbutRussianpower,andindeedRussianindependence.

Itmaybe,as'bth'appearstothink,thatgettinginvolvedinbitter
intra-Ukrainiandisputes-whichAmericansingeneralseemincapableof
eventryingtounderstand-isaworthwhileobjectiveforyourcountry's
policy.Apparently,manyoftheBritishlitesseemtothinkthis.

Butyoumustappreciatetheconsequences.Clearly,theRussiansare
lookingfor'asymetric'responseswhichenablethemtorunrisksof
confrontationwiththeUnitedStatesalikeinUkraineandSyria.

Amongthem,astheKatrinavanHeuvelreporttowhichIhavelinked
failstograsp,isasimpleone.

Astheyplanforthe'DoctorStrangelove'scenarios,theRussian
militarywillwanttoensurethat,shouldtheextraordinary
technologicalcapabilitiesofAmericansgivethemthecapacityfora
largelysuccessful'firststrike',therewillstillbeafewsurviving
Russiansubmarines.

Andtheircaptainswillthensendthenucleartorpedoestowhichthe
reportrefersoff,programmed,say,totargettheoutletsofthe
Charles,Hudson,andPotomacrivers.Andafewofthemwillgetthrough.

Youdon'tneedmany.Oneforeachrivershoulddo.

Tocomefullcircle,areallyinterestingquestionthenbecomeshowfar
theemergingChinese-Russianalliancewillgoinco-operationon
military-technologicaldevelopment.

Inview,thisislikelytobepartlyaquestionofhowfartheChinese
havethestrategicsensethatitisnotintheirlong-termintereststo
indulgetheirenthusiasmfor'reverseengineering'toofar.

[returntoContents]<#n0>

#21
Consortiumnews.com
January2,2015
HearingtheRussianPerspective
ByGilbertDoctorow
GilbertDoctorowistheEuropeanCoordinator,AmericanCommitteefor
EastWestAccord,Ltd.HislatestbookDoesRussiaHaveaFuture?
(August2015)isavailableinpaperbackande-bookfromAmazon.comand
affiliatedwebsites.FordonationstosupporttheEuropeanactivitiesof
ACEWA,writetoeastwestaccord@gmail.com.GilbertDoctorow,2015

TheneoconsandliberalhawkswhodominatetheU.S.foreignpolicyand
mediaestablishmentarepushingtheworldtowardanuclearshowdownwith
Russiaasfewpeoplehearacomprehensiveresponsefromtheotherside,
animbalancethatanewRussiandocumentaryaddresses,writesGilbert
Doctorow.
Withoutmincingwords,thenewRussiandocumentaryWorldOrderisa
devastatingcritiqueofU.S.globalhegemonyjustifiedinthenameof
"democracypromotion"and"humanrights"eversincethefallofthe
SovietUnionin1992.

ItisdirectlyinlinewithRussianPresidentVladimirPutin'sfirst
repudiationoftheAmericanunipolarworldissuedinhisspeechtothe
MunichSecurityConferenceinFebruary2007andhisfurther,evermore
explicitexpossinasuccessionofspeechesthatchallengedspecific
manifestationsof"Americanexceptionalism."

WorldOrder,whichisnowpostedonYouTube(inRussian)
[http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZNhYzYUo42g
]

andatanothersite(withEnglishsubtitles)
[http://www.liveleak.com/view?i=cf6_1451260176
],

illustratesthroughgraphicfootageandthetestimonyofindependent
worldauthoritiesthetragicconsequences,thespreadofchaosand
misery,resultingfromU.S.-engineered"regimechange"and"color
revolutions,"ofwhichtheviolentoverthrowoftheYanukovichregimein
UkraineinFebruary2014isonlythelatestexample.(Someofthe
highlightsfromPutin'sinterviewaretranslatedintoEnglishhereand
here.)
http://www.rt.com/news/326666-putin-ukraine-soviet-union-turkey/

ThetitleofthefilmfollowsonPutin'saddresstothe70thanniversary
gatheringoftheUnitedNationsGeneralAssemblyinSeptember2015which
hadasitscentralmessagethatworldorderrestsoninternationallaw,
whichinturnhasasitsfoundationtheUNCharter.

ByfloutingtheCharterandwagingwarwithoutthesanctionoftheUN
SecurityCouncil,startingwiththeNATOattackonSerbiain1999and
continuingwiththeinvasionofIraqin2003uptoitsillegalbombings
inSyriatoday,theUnitedStatesanditsNATOallieshaveshakenthe
foundationsofinternationallaw.

AssetoutinWorldOrder,Putin'sidentificationoftherootcauseof
thefailuretobringtheU.S.backtoreasonliesnotingiven
individuals,likeBarackObamaorGeorgeW.Bush,butinthementality
ofWestern,andinparticularAmericanelitesformedbytheirimpunity,
theirabilitytowalkawayfromthecatastrophestheirpoliciescreate
withoutanyfeelingofresponsibility,withoutbeingheldtoaccount.
Theirevasionofresponsibilityandfailuretolearnfromerrorcome
frombeingtherichestandmilitarilymostpowerfulnationonearth.

WorldOrderpresentsdramaticevidenceofthebrutalitywhichflowsfrom
Americanpolicieswhenfunctioningifflawedstatesareconvertedinto
failedstatesthroughcolorrevolutions,ashashappenedacrossthe
MiddleEastandNorthAfricasincethenewmillennium.Weareshown
SaddamHussein'sfinalmomentsbeforeexecution,thenthedenunciation
ofthisjudicialmurderbyMuammarGaddafibeforealaughingaudienceof
ArabLeaguedeputies,thenthebarbaricmobmurderofGaddafihimself
followedbytheexultantfaceofHillaryClintonafterthistriumphof
U.S.foreignpolicy.

WealsolistentoGaddafi'sdetailedpredictionofthevastfloodof
refugeesandspreadofjihadistsinNorthAfricathatwouldfollow
shouldhisregimebetoppled.Andwearegivenvideofootagefromthe
2015refugeeflowsintoEuropewiththeirmobscenesatstateborders
thatbearoutthosewarnings.

DiversePointsofView

TheforeignintervieweesinWorldOrdercompriseanimpressiveand
diverseselectionofleadersinvariousdomains,includingAmericanfilm
directorOliverStoneThomasGraham,formerNationalSecurityCouncil
directorforRussiaunderGeorgeW.Bushandcurrentmanagingdirector
atKissingerAssociatesformerIMFDirectorDominiqueStrauss-Kahn
formerPakistanPresidentPerwezMusharrafformerFrenchForeign
MinisterDominiqueVillepinformerIsraeliPresidentShimonPeres
WikileaksfounderJulianAssangeanddeputyleaderoftheDieLinke
partyintheGermanBundestagSahraWagenknecht.Others,likeUN
SecretaryGeneralBanKiMoon,putincameoappearances.

Strauss-Kahn,MusharrafandotherschargethattheU.S.plotsagainst
anddestroysforeignleaderswhodaretoopposeAmerica'stotalcontrol
overglobalflowsofmoney,goodsandpeople.Wagenknechtaddressesthe
questionofGermany'ssubserviencetoAmericanDiktatsanditsdefacto
circumscribedsovereignty.ThestatementssupportPutin'slong-standing
argument,reiteratedinthefilm,thattheWesternEuropeanalliesof
theU.S.arenothingmorethanvassals.

VladimirPutin'sclosingremarksabouttheplaceofnucleararmsin
Russia'smilitarydoctrinemustnotbeplayeddown.Sayingaloudthat
Russiahasnotandwillnotbrandishitsnucleartruncheon,is,in
effect,doingjustthat.Allofthisisofonepiecewiththeway
Russia'saerospaceforceshaveconductedtheirattacksinSyriaonthe
IslamicStateandonthearmedoppositiontoSyrianPresidentBashar
al-Assadthesepasttwomonths.

Theuseofheavybombersflying15,000kilometersfromtheKola
Peninsula,innorthwestRussiaalongtheArcticCircle,withthehelpof
night-timein-flightrefuelingtheuseofcruisemissilesfiredfrom
frigatesintheCaspianSeaatdistancesof1,300kmtotargetsin
SyriaandtheuseofcruisemissileslaunchedfromRussiansubmarines
intheMediterraneanhaveallhadapoliticaldimensionfarexceeding
militarynecessityintheSyriantheater:theydemonstrateRussia's
capabilityofwagingglobalwar,includingglobalnuclearwar.These
actionsarealsodepictedinthefilm.

IsWorldOrderpropaganda?Itmostcertainlyis.Isitdirected
primarilyattheRussiandomesticaudience,astheTelegraphnewspaper
insists?No.LikeallofPutin'sforeignpolicyaddresses,whether
deliveredabroadorathome,asintheValdaiDiscussionClub,whether
issuedwithsubtitlesinEnglishornot,itsprimaryaudienceisin
Washington,D.C.withasecondaryaudienceinBrussels.

Onemaysupposethatthepurposeisnottotouchofforacceleratean
armsracebut,onthecontrary,tobringtheothersidetoitssenses
andpersuadeitof1)Russia'sseriousnessaboutdefendingmilitarily
whatitseesasvitalnationalinterestsand2)itsabilitytodeliver
massivedestructiontoanenemyeveninthefaceofapossiblefirst
nuclearstrike,andsotoreinstatetheMutuallyAssuredDestruction
deterrencethatAmerica'sglobalmissiledefensewassupposedtocancelout.

However,inWorldOrder,Putinlistsseveralareasofcommonconcern
overwhichRussiaispreparedtocooperatewiththeWest.Indeedthese
verysameprospectiveareasofcooperationcomeuprepeatedlyinthe
publicwritingsandspeechesoftherelativelyfew"fightersforpeace"
whoaretryingtodrawtheworldcommunitybackfromthebrinkintosome
kindofdtente.

DangerousClash

Yet,pullingthatraisinoutofcakeistoseriouslymisunderstandthe
veryclearmessagecomingoutofRussia:thatthedestructionofworld
orderbyU.S.-led"democracypromotion"anditsspreadof"universal
values"willnotbetoleratedandthatRussiahassetdowncertainred
lines,suchasagainstNATOexpansionintoUkraineorGeorgiaoverwhich
itwillfighttothedeathusingallitsresources.Weignorethese
messagesatourperil.

AsweentertheU.S.presidentialelectoralseasonandavastnumberof
foreignpolicyandmilitaryadvisersareemergingtogivecounseltothe
candidatesonrelationswithRussiaandothermajorpowersinthehope
ofsecuringhighpostsinthenextU.S.administration,itisworth
lookingagainatthelessonsofthesummerandautumnof2008,whenwhat
becamethe"reset"policywasformulated,throughApril2009whenits
implementationbegan.

ThatinitiativetookshapethelasttimethattheUnitedStatesand
Russiawereonacourseofconfrontationleadingstraighttoarmed
conflict.ThecontextwastheRussian-Georgianwarandthedeploymentof
U.S.navalforcesoffthecoastofAbkhazia,poisedtoattackthenearby
Russiangroundforces.

Theimminentthreatofwarandtheongoingcampaigningforpresidential
electionsinNovemberformedanexusofcircumstancesnotvery
dissimilarfromwherewearetodaywhenU.S.andalliedairforces
competeforspaceintheskiesaboveSyriawithasubstantialRussian
forcethatincludesfighters,bombersandthemostadvancedair-defense
systemintheRussianarsenal.

Ihavesetouttheoriginsoftheresetpolicyinthe15-pagechapter
entitled"ObamaChangesUS-RussianRelations"inmy2013bookStepping
OutofLinetowhichIreferthereaderforfulldetails.HereIwill
limitmyselftoseveralkeyfactsandconclusionsastheybearonour
presentsituation.

FirstamongthesekeyfactswasthemobilizationofAmerica'spolitical
andscientificelitestobringaboutachangeinU.S.foreignpolicy
thatwouldtakeusbackfromthebrinkofwar.Manyofthenameswhich
cameintoplaythenareonceagainbeingsummonedbythefightersfor
peacetoweighinonthesideoftheangels.

Theproblemisthatthosewhohadcreatedtheconventionalwisdomabout
theroleoftheU.S.intheworldwereill-preparedtogobeyond
tinkeringattheedgesofthatwisdom,resultinginthefailureofreset
togototheheartofthedisputewithRussiaandultimatelythisledto
manytearsofregretallaround.

AnIncompleteReset

Thestartingpointofwhatbecamethe"reset"wasthefoundingonAug.
1,2008,oftheCommissiononU.S.PolicyTowardRussiaundertheaegis
offormerSenatorsChuckHagel(Republican)andGaryHart(Democrat),
settingthebipartisancourseoftheinitiative.Ithadasitsbackers
theNixonCenterinWashington,athinktankwhoseHonoraryChairmanwas
formerSecretaryofStateHenryKissinger.Itwasalsosupportedbythe
BelferCenterforScienceandInternationalAffairs,aresearchcenter
withintheJohnF.KennedySchoolofGovernment,HarvardUniversity.

MembersincludedformerU.S.ambassadorstotheUSSRorRussiaJames
Collins,JackMatlockandThomasPickeringaswellasformerNational
SecurityCouncilorDefenseDepartmentofficialsandtopbusiness
leaders,suchastheformerchairmanoftheworld'slargestinsurance
company,MauriceGreenberg.Amongthosewhoworkedcloselywiththe
CommissioneitherinsideoroutsidewereformerSecretaryofState
GeorgeSchultz,formerDefenseSecretaryWilliamPerryandformer
SenatorSamNunn.

UltimatelytheCommissionissueda17-pagereportentitled"TheRight
DirectionforU.S.PolicytowardRussia"whichcontainedmanyofthe
pointstakenupinthepapersoutliningresetwhichPresidentObama's
delegationsignedoffwiththeRussianswhentheymetinLondononApril
1,2009,onthesidelinesofthefirstsummitmeetingbetweenObamaand
RussianPresidentDmitryMedvedev.

Thecenterpieceof"reset"-asdefinedinthestatepaperssignedin
London-wasrenewalofthe1994StrategicArmsLimitationTreaty
(START)thatwasscheduledtoexpireinDecember2009.Italsocalled
fororganizing"contactsbetweenourtwogovernmentsinamore
structuredandregularway."Anditwentontourgegreatercooperation
betweensocieties:moreculturalexchanges,studentexchanges,
scientificcooperation,andcooperationamongNGOs.
STARTrenewalwasestablishedasapriorityoftheObama
administration'soverallforeignpolicy,whichcalledforstoppingand
reversingdeploymentofnucleararmsandenforcingnon-proliferation.In
theend,thatobjectivewasachieved.Butintheend,thatachievement
didnothingtopreventtheoutbreakofanewarmsraceandevergreater
riskofnuclearwaramongthegreatpowersthatweseetoday.

Amajorreasonforthisfailurewasthetimidityofthosecallingfora
newpolicyonRussia.ThereportfromtheCommissionassumedcontinuing
U.S.hegemonyinworldaffairs.Itstoodbythepolicyofcontinuing
expansionofNATOmembership,includingtoUkraineandGeorgia,andthe
onlyconcessionwastoslowdownthetimetable.Itcalledforthe
continuedroll-outoftheglobalmissiledefenseshield.

WhiletheauthorsurgedendingU.S.restrictionsontradewithRussia
anditsadmissiontotheWorldTradeOrganization,theynonetheless
espousedtheconventionalwisdomonthedangersofRussia'sdominant
positionasenergysuppliertoEuropeandcameoutinfavorofbuilding
gaspipelinestoEuropeskirtingRussianterritoryandthereby
diversifyingEurope'senergysuppliesatRussia'sexpense.

ANewSecurityArchitecture

TheoverridingRussianconcernforanewsecurityarchitecturetobeput
inplaceinEuropethatwouldbringtheminfromthecoldreceiveda
sympatheticifnoncommittalresponsefromtheCommission.Theproposals
inthisregardputforwardbyPresidentMedvedevinApril2008shouldbe
formallyreviewed,theysaid,butwithoutanyspecificrecommendations.

Withrespectto"democracypromotion"inRussia,theCommissionmembers
calledforthevolumeofcriticismofRussiatobeturneddown.They
alsocalledforashowofdecencybyAmericansintheirdealingswith
Russia.

Asidefromthenewstrategicarmsreductiontreaty,Obama'sresetcame
tonaught.

Itbearsstressingthattoday'ssituationismorethreateningthanin
2008.AgainstabackgroundofshrillInformationWarfarebetweenRussia
andtheWest,thedenigrationoftheRussianleadershipandofthe
countryingeneralbytheoccupantoftheOvalOfficeandbyleading
membersofCongresshasadvancedtolevelsunequaledintheworstdays
oftheColdWar.

MeanwhileRussia'sstrategicmilitarycapabilitiesinbothnuclearand
conventionalwarfarehaveadvancedincrediblyfromthelevelsof2008
whenWesternmilitaryobserversexpressedtheirsatisfactionthatthe
performanceoftheRussianmilitarydidnotseemmuchimprovedoverthe
daysoftheill-fatedAfghanwarthatbroughtdowntheSovietUnion.
Today,ifwearetoescapefromthecycleof"resets"-frombitter
disappointmentoversouringofrelationsafterafewlandmarkfruitsof
cooperationandthentheonsetofnew,heightenedrisksofnuclearwar-
wemustseizethenettleandresolvetoaddresstheunderlyingproblems
ofinternationalrelationsthattheRussianleadershipcite,most
recentlyinthedocumentaryfilmWorldOrder.

Dtente,i.e.,relaxationoftensionsandimprovedatmospherics,isonly
agoodbeginning,nothingmore.

It'sworthnotingthatthefilm'sdirectorandco-authorisoneofthe
mostintelligentandfair-mindedpresentersonRussiantelevision,
VladimirSoloviev,whoisbestknowntodayforprime-timeevening
debatesonhotdomesticandinternationalissuesinwhichthe"other
side,"whetherUkrainianorAmericanortheRussianoppositionparties
intheDuma,isalwayspresentinwhatamountsattimestoastonishing
opennessofdiscussiononlivetelevision,whenitdoesnotdescendinto
shoutingmatches.

SolovievhasaPh.D.ineconomicsfromtheInstituteofWorldEconomics
andInternationalRelationsoftheUSSRAcademyofSciences.Hewasan
activeentrepreneurinthe1990sandspentsometimebacktheninthe
U.S.,wherehisactivitiesincludedteachingeconomicsattheUniversity
ofAlabama.Ifheistheauthorofpropaganda,onecanbecertainitis
sophisticatedandservescertainphilosophicalandethicalvalues,not
individualsorpowerforpower'ssake.

ThedocumentarywasreleasedbythestatebroadcasterPervyKanalon
Dec.20.

[returntoContents]<#n0>

Forwardemail

Thisemailwassenttomartin.dewhirst@gmail.comby
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Johnson'sRussiaList|6368CircleDrive|Chincoteague|VA|23336

 From: MartinDewhirst<martin.dewhirst@googlemail.com>
Senttime: 01/04/201601:30:26PM
Bob<robertotto25@gmail.com>WayneandStacyAllensworth<swallen@1scom.net>JohnBDunlop<john.dunlop@stanford.edu>JohnB
To:
Dunlop<john.dunlop3@gmail.com>
Subject: Fwd:2016-#2-Johnson'sRussiaList

WhatPavlovskyissayinginitem5isveryreminiscentofwhathesaid
inLondonacoupleofmonthsago.I'msorryIwastoobusytowriteit
up.(BothheandBelkovsky[whowasdrunk]madeamostunpleasant
impression.)
M.

--------ForwardedMessage--------
Subject:2016-#2-Johnson'sRussiaList
Date:Mon,4Jan201614:23:16-0500(EST)
From:DavidJohnson
Reply-To:davidjohnson@starpower.net
To:martin.dewhirst@gmail.com

Havingtroubleviewingthisemail?Clickhere

Johnson'sRussiaList
2016-#2
4January2016
davidjohnson@starpower.net
AprojectsponsoredthroughtheInstituteforEuropean,Russian,and
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SchoolofInternationalAffairs*
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http://archive.constantcontact.com/fs053/1102820649387/archive/1102911694293.html

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contentsdonotnecessarilyrepresenttheviewsofIERESortheGeorge
WashingtonUniversity.

*"Wedon'tseethingsastheyare,butasweare"*

*"Don'tbelieveeverythingyouthink"

Youseewhatyouexpecttosee*

*/DJ:JRLwillbeoffthenextcoupledays./*

*Inthisissue*
TODAY<#LETTER.BLOCK4>
1.RFE/RL:HardTimes:FiveRussians'Hopes,FearsFor2016.
<#LETTER.BLOCK5>
2.WorldEconomicForum:Whichcountryhasthemostengineering
graduates?<#LETTER.BLOCK6>
3.Gazeta.ru:Russia's2015agendadominatedbyforeignpolicyover
internalissues.(editorial)<#LETTER.BLOCK7>
4.KomsomolskayaPravda:Russia'seconomicministercautiously
optimisticinyear-endinterview.(AlekseyUlyukayev)<#LETTER.BLOCK8>
5.Gazeta.ru:Russianpunditviewscurrentregime,likelyfuture
scenarios.(GlebPavlovskiy)<#LETTER.BLOCK9>
6.Sputnik:WeakRubletoHelpRussiaWithstandLowOilPrices.
<#LETTER.BLOCK10>
7.Sputnik:RussiaOilOutputRisestoNewRecordHighin2015.
<#LETTER.BLOCK11>
8.TheNationalInterest:NikolayPakhomov,TheTruthAboutSanctions
AgainstRussia.Westernsanctionshavefailedtodelivera'devastating
blow'buttheyalsoseemheretostay.<#LETTER.BLOCK12>
9.RussiaDirect:YuriBarmin,WhattoexpectfromRussia'sSyriapolicy
in2016.MoscowhasbeenrelyingonhardpowerinSyriaoverthelast
threemonthsandrisksfallingintoatrapofover-relianceonitnext
year.Whilethisstrategyhasyieldedsomeresults,suchasengagingthe
U.S.-ledcoalitionintomoredecisivetalks,in2016thesameapproach
islikelytoproveitsinefficiency.<#LETTER.BLOCK13>
10.TheUnzReview:TheSaker,WeekThirteenoftheRussianIntervention
inSyria:DebunkingtheLies.<#LETTER.BLOCK14>
11.TheNationalInterest:ThomasFedyszyn,WhatRussiaSaidAboutNATO
andWhyItMatters.<#LETTER.BLOCK15>
12.TheUnzReview:AnatolyKarlin,CollapseofUkraine'sEconomyin
FiveCharts.<#LETTER.BLOCK16>
13.Sputnik:Over400,000UkrainiansReadytoIntegrateIntoRussian
Society.<#LETTER.BLOCK17>
14.www.rt.com:Crimeansvotetogiveupelectricitycontractwith
Ukraineevenifitmeansmorepowercut-offs.<#LETTER.BLOCK18>
15.Forbes.com:KennethRapoza,RussiaGivesUkraineABreakOnFuel
Costs,ButPricesLikelyGoingLowerAnyway.<#LETTER.BLOCK19>
16.www.thedailybeast.com:AnnaNemtsova,Khodorkovsky:FromRussian
Multi-Billionaireto'Murderer'?Putinjusthatesthisguy.Jailedfor
morethanadecade,thenforcedintoexile,theformerheadofYukosoil
isnowchargedwithmurder.<#LETTER.BLOCK20>
17.TheKremlinStooge:MarkChapman,TheUnbearableUnseemlinessof
Partnership.(reJimHoagland)<#LETTER.BLOCK21>
18.Medium:DominicBasulto,WhatRussiawantsin2016:Anewworld
order.<#LETTER.BLOCK22>
19.TheAtlantic:JeffreyTaylor,TheWorldAccordingtoRussia.A
documentaryonstatetelevisiongivesaglimpseofVladimirPutin's
philosophy.<#LETTER.BLOCK23>
20.SicSemperTyrannis:DavidHabakkuk,Analternativeforeignpolicy.
<#LETTER.BLOCK24>
21.Consortiumnews.com:GilbertDoctorow,HearingtheRussian
Perspective.<#LETTER.BLOCK25>

#1
RFE/RL
January3,2016
HardTimes:FiveRussians'Hopes,FearsFor2016
byTomBalmforth

MOSCOW--2015hasbeenatoughyearformanyRussians.Theeconomyhas
beenmiredinrecession.Draggeddownbyoilprices,therublehas
languishednearrecordlows.Thecostofatypicaltripabroadhas
doubledinrubleterms,andU.S.andEUsanctionsoverMoscow's
interferenceinUkrainehaveincreasedRussia'sisolation.TheKremlin's
retaliatorybanhassweptmanyWesternfoodsofftheshelvesanddriven
inflationup,whilesalariesaredown.

RFE/RLspoketofiveMuscovitesfromdifferentwalksoflifeabouttheir
experiencesthisyear,andtheirhopesandfearsfor2016.Here'swhat
theysaid:

TatyanaZaugolnova,29
Ownsandrunsanonlinecosmeticsshop,MyGreenStyle,withastaffofsix

"Onaday-to-daylevel,I'venoticedofcoursethatgroceriesaremuch
moreexpensive,especiallyfish,whichnowcoststwotimesmorethanI
wasusedto.Travelinghasalsogottentwiceasexpensive.Ifayearago
IcouldtakemyrucksackandheadofftoEuropefortheweekend,
nowadaysIsitheretotingupthecostsandthendon'tgobecause
everythinghasbecomereallyexpensive.

"Businesshasgottenharder.ThecostofEuropeancosmeticshasdoubled
--andmorethandoubledinthecaseofsomeproducers.Demand,
correspondingly,hasfallen.It'sbeenabiteasierwithRussian
cosmetics,whichhavegotten20-30percentmoreexpensiveandtherefore
seemlikeabetterdealincomparisonwithEuropeanbrands.Ingeneral,
though,ofcourse,salesarefalling.

"I'vedecidedtotryandbringdownexpenses--torentlessoffice
spaceandhavestaffworkremotely.Let'sseewhathappens.Ihopethere
willbearesultandwe'llsurvivethiscrisis,aswedidtheothers.

"Ihavethefeelingthatwe'vepassedthepeakofthecrisisandthat
theeconomyhasbeenrestructuredwithanorientationtowarddomestic
producers.Russianproducershavereceivedgoodstimulusbecauseofthe
sanctionsandtherateofthedollar.Theexampleofcosmeticshasshown
methis--Russiancosmeticshaven'trisenincostasfastasforeign
ones,sotheyremainpopular.

"Ihope,ofcourse,thatthecomingyearwillbeeasierthanthisone
andthateverythingstabilizes.Attheveryleast,Iwouldlikethereto
bestability.Thesejumpsinthedollarandeuroreallyaffectprices.
It'sreallydifficulttopredicthowmuchIwillspendinthenextmonth.

"Whataremyfears?MybiggestfearisthatI'llhavetoclosemyshop.
Thesituationatthemomentisquitedifficult.Ireallyhopethatmy
strategyofloweringcostswillworkandIwon'thavetoclose.My
biggestfearisthatI'llhavetoclosetheshop."

VladimirSkiba,65
Pensioner,teachesmusic

"Ithinkanyonewhohasaprofessionofsomesortcanworkinaddition
totheirpension.Especiallypeoplewhoaremusiciansorworkinculture
andcandosomethinglikeplay,write,compose--thesepeoplecanfind
useforthemselves.

"Iwouldn'tsay[theeconomicdownturn]hashadabigeffectorbeen
verynoticeable.Ifindoutaboutitmorefromthemedia.Ihadn'tbeen
planninginthenearfuturetoimprovemylivingstandards,tobuyan
expensivecar.Asfordailylife,Ihaven'tnoticedabigimpacton
groceryprices.

"Irememberthe1990swell.Itwasmuchmoredifficultandmuchworse.I
rememberthedefaultandevenrememberwhenIwasreallysmall,under
[SovietleaderNikita]Khrushchev,whentherewereawfulqueuesfor
basicproductslikebreadandbutter.The1990swerealsoadifficulttime.

"Incontrast,Iamawareofthiscrisismorethroughthemedia,the
televisionandthenewspaper,andinconversations.Therearetimeswhen
peoplecomeuptoyouandaskformoney,butinthoseyears,itwasall
alotmoreevidentrightinfrontofyoureyes.

"Ithinkwe'vealreadypassed[thepeakofRussia'seconomictroubles]
andthatpriceshavestabilized.

"Myhopeisthateveryone'slifewillreallygetbetter--thatpeople
won'thavetocountthekopeksandthattheywillbeabletobuywhat
theywant.Notallpensionersareabletoworktosupplementtheirpension.

"It'snotlikeinsomeWesterncountries.Ihavealotoffriendsabroad
andI'veoftennoticedthatthingsarealotbetterthoughtoutfor
people[there],especiallypeopleofapensionage.Asforfears,there
isn'tanything--I'msurethateverythingwillbecomenormal."
SvyatKozlov,52
Formerfurniturerestorer,ondisabilitypension

"Theeconomiccrisishasreallyhadaneffectonmylifeasapensioner.
Oneortwoyearsago,mypensionwastheequivalentof$300or$400.
Now,becauseofthecrisisandallthis,ourpensionshavebecomea
hundredandsomethingdollars.That'slikeinChina.Itisveryhard,in
practice,toliveonahundredandsomethingdollars.Groceriesare
gettingmoreespensive.

"Thesanctionsweredeclaredagainst[RussianPresidentVladimir]Putin.
TheywerenotimposedagainstthepeopleofRussia,butagainstthe
friendsofPutin.Butsothatwecouldalllivehappily,Putinmadeit
sothatwecan'tbuyfoodfromothercountries.Wedon'thaveourown
productsinRussia.SonowwearerejectingTurkishproductsandsoonwe
willrejectsomeothercountries'products.Asaresult,we'llsoonbe
givenrationcardsforfood,likeatthebeginningofperestroika.

"Howcanwesaythatthepeakofthecrisisispastuswheninthelast
fewyears,smallbusinessinthiscountryhaspracticallybeentotally
destroyed?Inthelasttwoyears,smallenterpriseshavebeenclosingon
amassivescale.Around100,000or200,000smallbusinesseshaveclosed
inthepastyear.Onlybigoligarchscansurvive,thankstostealingour
gasandoil.It'senoughtodrive100kilometersoutsideMoscowandit's
evidentimmediatelythatthisisapoorcountry.Thiscrisiswill
continueforalong,longtime.

"MyhopeisthattheWesterncountrieswillremovetheir[sanctions].My
fearisthatwewillendupinanotherwar.Russiahasbeenfightingin
Ukraine.RussiaisfightinginSyria.Russiaineffectdeclaredwaron
theIslamicState--wedeclaredwaronthem,notthemonus.Sothere
isthefearthatthewarcouldcometoourterritory."

YekaterinaKondratyeva,28
TVjournalist

"I'vehadtotakeoutaloanwithanelevatedratetobuyacar.Before,
Icouldbuythecarwithaloanata15percentinterestrate,butnow
it'spractically20percent.There'stravel,aswell.IfIflytoEurope
andpayineurosanddollars,theneffectivelyIhavehalfasmuchmoney
asIdidbefore.Withgroceries,Ihaven'treallyfeltthiscrisismuch.
Yes,they'vegotabitmoreexpensive,butIdon'treallyfeelitthatmuch.

"Overall,I'vefeltthecrisishereandthere,butthisisthefirst
timeI'venoticedfinancialchangesinmylife.Maybethat'sbecause
thisisthefirsttimeI'vehadloanstopayoff.Inpastcrises,I've
neverfeltthembecauseIhaven'thadaloanbefore.Idon'tthinkwe've
reachedthepeakofthecrisis.Idon'tknowifit'sgoingtobebetter
orworse,butIdon'tthinkthecrisisisgoinganywhere.

"Idon'thaveanyfears[about2016].Idon'tthinkitwillbevery
scary.Somethingcouldhappeninbroadtermsinthecountry,butIdon't
worryaboutmyselfverymuch.IthinkI'llbejustfine.

"Myhopes--Ihopethingsgetbetter,ofcourse,thatthecrisiswill
endinthenextyearortwoandthateverythingwillbelikeitwas
before,orevenbetter.I'manoptimistinlife!"

DmitryKlimanov,29
Self-employedinsurancesalesman

"Theinsurancebusinessiscurrentlyinquiteadifficultsituation.I
workincarinsuranceandinsuranceforconstructionequipment.The
situationisthatcarsaleshavefallenandthecostofsparepartshas
risen.It'sgottenhardertofindclients.That'sthefirstthing.

"Thesecondisthatcompanieshavestartedtofeelbad.Asaresult
therehavebeensomeproblemswithsettlinginsuranceclaims.Ithasa
negativeimpact.Clientsarelosingtrustininsurersabit.Inshort,
thisisanegativeenvironment.Butthereisalsoanoppositetrend--
peoplehavestartedtofearlosingtheirproperty.Acarcrashwillcost
21/2tothreetimesmorethanbefore.Sparepartscostmore,andpeople
wanttoinsurethemselves.

"Idon'tworkinacompany.SinceIworkformyself,Idon'thavea
fixedsalary,sothereisacertainfearaboutwhat'sgoingtohappenin
thefuture.Anotherthingisthattravelhasbecomesignificantlymore
expensive.Beforethecrisis,IwasintheMaldives,butthistimeI
wenttotheDominicanRepublicbecauseit'scheaper.Nextyear,Idon't
evenknowwhereit'sworthgoingbecauseeverything'smoreexpensive.
Maybeitwouldbeeasiertobuildanother'banya'[bathhouse]atthe
dachaandtakeavacationoutthere.

"The[economicproblems]arestillgrowing.Iseethisatwork.That
companiesareclosingisafact,andtheywillcontinuetoclose.There
isnogrowth.Manyheldonuntiltheend.Manyofmycolleaguesare
leavingthemarkettoworkinanofficebecausetheywantstability.

"Thingsaresimplerforme.Inprofessionalterms,Ihavehope.My
friendshavefearsthattheircompanieswillcloseorcuttheirsalaries
andsoon.Myfearsstemfromthefactthatit'snotclearwhatwill
happeninthefuture.Therearefearsthattherewillbearisein
crime.Therehavebeencases,forinstance,ofcartheft,andof
headlightsorwingmirrorsgettingstolen.Thebiggestfear,Isuppose,
isthatsomeonewillhityouovertheheadtotakeyourphone."
[returntoContents]<#n0>

#2
WorldEconomicForum
http://agenda.weforum.org
September17,2015
Whichcountryhasthemostengineeringgraduates?
ByJoeMyers
[Charthere
http://agenda.weforum.org/2015/09/which-country-most-engineering-manufacturing-and-construction-gr
aduates/

Adiverseandhighlyskilledpooloftalentisakeydriverofeconomic
growth,allowingeconomiestomakethemostoftheirhumancapital.

TheWorldEconomicForum'sHumanCapitalReport2015providesdatafor
124economiesacrossarangeofindicators,includingthenumberof
graduatesinengineering,manufacturingandconstruction.

TheRussianFederationtopsthelistwithnearlyhalfamillion
graduatesayearinthefield.TheUnitedStatesfollowsinsecond,with
Irancompletingthetopthree.

Aminimumof100,000graduatesareneededannuallytomakethetop10,
highlightingthepopularityofthefield.

ThedataforthisrankingistakenfromtheUNESCOInstituteforStatistics.
[returntoContents]<#n0>

#3
Gazeta.ru
December29,2015
Russia's2015agendadominatedbyforeignpolicyoverinternalissues
Editorial,Russiawentabroad.Howwilltheoutgoingyeargodownin
history?

Itisobviousthat,fromthemomentoftheaccessionoftheCrimea,
Russiaenteredapivotalhistoricalperiod.Howhistorianswillassess
thisperiodincenturiestocomeisdifficulttopredict-aperiodis
pivotalpreciselyinthatitcanstillswingthecountryinone
directionorinanother.Theoutgoingyearof2015wasinthissensenot
ground-breaking-rather,itconsolidatedthenew,fluid,post-Crimean
realityinwhichmoreeventshappeninayearthaninthedecadeofthe
satedandtranquilnaughties.

Themaininstrumentofthepastyearwastherefusaltocompromise-
especiallywhenitcametointernalconsumption.WhatPutinandKerry
actuallyspendfivehoursdiscussing,whattalksLavrovholdsashe
wheelsabouttheworld,andwhatMedvedevreachesagreementon,orfails
toreachagreementon,inChinaisunimportant.Themainthingisthat
RussiancitizensshouldknowthatourproudVaryagisnotgivinginto
theenemy[allusiontothebest-knownlinefroma1904songdevotedto
heroismofthecrewoftheRussiancruiserVaryagdisplayedinthe
BattleofChemulpoBayintheRussian-Japanesewar].

Compromise,negotiations,mutualconcessions-inpublicperception,all
thishasbecomethelotoftheweak.

Whodareswins-thisisourdiplomacy,relayedfromthetopand
willinglyacceptedatthebottom.Itsapotheosiswasthethreat"you
won'tgetawaywith[justtheRussianbanontheimportationofyour]
tomatoes"addressedtoTurkeythatwasmadepublicbythepresidentin
hismessagetotheFederalAssembly.

Inthesameway,thestateonceandforallshookoffthedesiretocome
totermswithanyoneininternalpoliticsalso.Threeyears'
imprisonmentforasolitarypicket,newjailsentencesundertheold
"Bolotnayacase"[againstoppositionactivistsarrestedforprotesting
onBolotnayaPloshchadin2012],thearrestinabsentiaof
Khodorkovskiy,thehousearrestforthedirectoroftheUkrainian
library[NataliyaSharina,directoroftheLibraryofUkrainian
LiteratureinMoscow,whoisaccusedofincitingethnichatred],andat
thesametime,totaldisregardforpublicinvestigationsintocorruption
inpower,areanotherimportanthallmarkoftheoutgoingyear.

Debatinganddiscussingtopicalproblems-betheytheproblemsof
importreplacement,themanagementcrisisinCrimea,orthetruckers'
protests-arealsonolongerpartoftheinternalagenda.Discussions,
reflections,andthesearchforacompromisehavebeenreplacedwith
slogansandlabels.Hewhoisnotwithus,isagainstus.

Gonearesemitones,allowances,andtheanalysisofthesituationfrom
varioussides.Politicianshaveseeminglyforgottenthatacomplex
situationdoesnothaveasingleprimecause.Thereisalwaysarangeof
currentactions,inactions,andcircumstances.Accordingly,aproblem
mustalsobetackledbyarangeofmeasures,andnotinonefellswoop.
Butintheoutgoingyear,itwaspreciselythetacticofsimple
explanationsandsimplesolutions-whichareinfactnosolutionsat
all,butwhichlookvivaciousanddevil-may-care-thatprevailed.

"Thepeakofthecrisishaspassed,"thepresidentsays,andpromisesto
punish"speculators"iffoodpricescontinuetogrow."Theinternal
touristmarketisdevelopinginRussia,"theheadoftheFederalAgency
forTourismrejoices,asifnotnoticingthatarecordnumberofRussian
citizenswillthisyearspendtheNewYearholidaysathome-avacation
inRussia,unlikeclosed-offEgyptandTurkey,hasprovedtobebeyond
thereachofthepocketsofmanypeople.TheheadoftheMinistryof
Agriculturereportsthesuccessesofimportreplacement,butonsocial
networksfolkpostphotosofnoticeablyemptysupermarketshelves.

Themoodinsocietyconsequentlyfluctuatesinarangefromelationto
horror.Whereasayearago,atthepeakoftheCrimeaneuphoria,the
moodofthemajoritywasbelligerentlycheerfulandthatoftheminority
quietlystunned,intheoutgoingyearmoodstookonthecharacterofa
strangedichotomy.

Weare,asitwere,allmountedonhorsebackandwieldingasabre,but
atthesametime,wearefatalisticallyresignedtothefactthatweare
becomingvisiblypoorer.

ThebombingsofSyria,thethreatslevelledatTurkey,andthedigs
aimedatObamastillelicitspasmsofnationalpride,butinstoresand
pharmacies,facesareincreasinglygloomy-thereisnolongerthemoney
fortheformercustomaryconsumption.Andnoneisforeseen,judgingby
thefactthatnoconceptofastrategyfortheprogressivedevelopment
ofthecountryexists.Ifnoteachday,thendefinitelyeachmonthis
becomingabsolutelyunpredictable.

Noonecansayforsurewhatwillbecomeoftheroubleexchangerateand
prices,orofpayandcreditsitisnotknownwhatnewpaymentscould
beintroducedorincreased,whatsanctionscouldbeadoptedonwhat
rangeofgoods,ortowhatcountriesaccesswillbeopenedor,asis
morelikely,bebarred.

Thisisreturningthewholecountryonceagaintolivingonedayata
time,wherebyitisimpossibletoplanthechildren'svacationsoran
expensivepurchase,acourseoftreatmentinvolvingspecialmedicines,
ortheacquisitionofahomeoramotorvehicle,becauseitisnotknown
whetherallthiswillbeavailabletomorrow,oratwhatprice.

Thestabilitythatwehavebeenstrainingafterforyearshasvanished,
onceagaingivingplacetoday-to-daysurvivalinthehopeofabright
futureatsomelatertime.

Againstthisbackground,theresignationjustbeforethenewyearof
AlekseyChalyy,headoftheSevastopollegislativeassembly,alsolooks
symbolic.ThatsameChalyy,whoseinformalblacksweateratthehistoric
signingofthetreatyontheaccessionofCrimeatoRussiaonlyablind
manfailedtonotice.Butthejacketshaveneverthelessforcedoutthe
sweater-Chalyyexplainedhisresignationby"theimpossibilityof
remaininginthispost,becausein18monthsthecity'slegislativeand
executivebrancheshavenotgotanynearertorealizingablueprintfor
thecity'sdevelopmentthatissupportedbythepopulation."

Yes,thereissimplynotimeforRussia.Despitetheobviousproblems
insidethecountry,2015wastheyearofthefinaltriumphofforeign
policyoverinternalpolicy.Iftheeventsof2014,whichpassedunder
thesignofUkraine,wereneverthelesscloselyconnectedwithRussian
soil-refugeestravelledtoRussia,soldiersonleavetravelledas
volunteersfromRussia[theRussiangovernment'sofficialexplanation
forthepresenceofRussianservicemenineastUkraineisthattheyare
"onleave"],andCrimeawashookeduptonationalprogrammesandbudgets
-2015,withEgyptandTurkeyandwithSyriaandIran,wasayearof
exclusivelyinternationalsubjectmatter,whichfilledalltheairwaves
andeverydiscussion.Theinternalproblems,whicharegrowingwith
everypassingday,seeminglyceasedtoexist.

Onlytheoutsideworld,withoutaninternalworld,remains.Especially
sincethereislessandlessmoneyforthisinternalworld.

Butneithertheindividual,northecountrycanremainforlongwithout
aninternalworld.Thisisfreezinganddevastating.

Thereishopethatnextyearcouldallthesamebepartlyayearof
returningtoourselves.Andnotonlybecausetheaccumulatedinternal
problemswillbeginincreasinglytomakethemselvesfelt,andnoteven
becausefederalparliamentaryelectionsarelooming.Butsimplybecause
theindividualcannotremainforlongwithouthimselforherself,
withouthisorherownlife,hisorherownproblemsandjoys.Assoon
aspeoplerealizethatinternalproblemsaremoreimportantthan
externalproblems,theywillbeginnotonlytoimprovelifesomewhere
else,lookingatthetelevision,butalsotosetstraighttheirown
lives,thelifeoftheircityandcountry.Becauseunlessthishappens,
thereisaworldaroundus,butthereisnoworldinsideus.Andinthat
case,thereisnolifeeither.
[returntoContents]<#n0>

#4
KomsomolskayaPravda
December30,2015
Russia'seconomicministercautiouslyoptimisticinyear-endinterview
AleksandraKozlovainterviewwithEconomicDevelopmentMinisterAleksey
Ulyukayev:RussianFederationEconomyMinisterAlekseyUlyukayevgave
KomsomolskayaPravdaaforecastofhowlongroublewouldfallfor-He
answeredbasictopicalquestionsrelatingtotheRussianeconomyfrom
ourpublication'scorrespondent

EveryonehastheirownNewYeartraditions.Forathirdyearnowweare
summingupthesymbolicendofyearresultsontheeveof31December
withtheheadoftheEconomicDevelopmentMinistry.Andtherereallyis
somethingtotalkaboutnow:theroublehasagainreachedrecordlevels,
enterprisesaresuffocatingwithoutloans,andsanctionsarecontinuing
tomultiply.AlekseyUlyukayevexplainedwhatmeasuresthegovernmentis
takingtodealwiththesituation.Andhesharedhispredictions.

Businessmendemandchanges

[InterviewerAleksandraKozlova]Businesseshavemanycomplaintsabout
thegovernment'seconomicbloc.Peoplearemoaning,sayinglet'schange
something.AccordingtotheircalculationsenterprisesneedR1,500bnin
ordertobe"revitalized".Butnotjustbyprintingmoney-thisshould
bedonethroughloans(orbonds).Sothatmoneyreallyreachesthe
enterprisesandwillthenbepaidback.Isthispossible?

[Ulyukayev]Weunderstand-thesituationisserious.Andwearetrying
todrawuptheappropriatemechanismstoresolveit.Forexample,
developingabondmarket.Wehavecreatedatoolforprojectfinancing.
Itenablesmoneytobeattractedwithstate-fundedguarantees,weare
usingtheNationalWelfareFund.Ialwaystrytoconveyoneidea.
Everyoneknowsabouttherisksofinvesting.Buttherearealsothe
risksofnotinvesting.Andtheyarenoless.Ifyouhavenotinvested
todayyouhavenotcreatedataxbase.Thismeansthesourceof
replenishingthebudgetinfutureyearshasbeenundermined.Thismeans
importantsocialcommitmentswillremainunmet.Thereisavery
importantlogichere,Ithink.Unfortunately,thelawof"preferring
currentbenefitsoverfuturebenefits"operatesintheeconomy.The
preferenceforwhatwillhappeninthreedays'timeprevailsoverwhat
willoccurin30years'timeforallofus.Thatiswhymoreattention
muststillbedevotedtostrategicmatters.

[Kozlova]Doyouknow[StateDuma]deputyMarkov?

[Ulyukayev]ThechairmanoftheBudgetaryCommittee?OfcourseIknowhim.

[Kozlova]Herecentlycomparedyoutoadiverwhoperiodicallyputsona
suit,divestothebottomoftheeconomy,andtriestofumblearoundfor
itthere.Howappropriateisthecomparison?

[Ulyukayev]Appropriatenessandcorrectnessareamatterofupbringing
andeducation.Idonotwanttocallanyonetoorderhere.Weare
actuallylivinginafreecountry.Butasfarasthecomparisonis
concerned-Ithinkthatdivingisaveryhonourableprofession.It
flattersme.

[Kozlova]Soareweatthebottomornot?

[Ulyukayev]Theproblemisnotwhetherthedivergoesdowntothe
bottom.Butwhetherthebottomhasbecomeequaltothesurface?Howcan
weensurethatnoteveryoneendsupatthebottom?Thatiswhatis
important.Andinfactthetaskofthediveris-toseethereefs,
banks,anddangersthathindertheship.Andisitthebottomornot?I
thinkthatthepotentialfortheeconomytofallhasbeenexhausted.It
wasexhaustedbythemiddleof2015.Andnowvariationaroundthislow
barisoccurring.Whetheryoucallthisthe"bottom"orsomething
differentisnotthatimportant.

[Kozlova]Sowecanexpectarecoverynow?

[Ulyukayev]Thesharpdeclinehasendedbutunfortunatelythereisno
sharprise.Therearemajorfluctuationsinthetradeandfinancial
markets.Ourfiguresareeitherslightlypositiveorslightlynegative.
Thus,betweenJulyandOctobertherewasapparentlyapositivedynamic.
InNovemberthisagainchangedinanegativedirection.Onthewhole,a
processofadaptationofenterprisesandtheeconomytothenew
conditionsisstillunderway.

[Kozlova]Oh,thereisgoodnewsaswell...

[Ulyukayev]Yes,companies'profitshaveincreasedsubstantially.Onthe
whole,duringthefirst11monthsofthisyear-44percenthigherthan
lastyearbecausecostshavefallen.Thiscreatesabaseforfuture
investments.Andwearewinningonimportreplacement.The
competitivenessofenterprisesishigher-thefinancialresultis
higher.Andcompaniesareinvestingthisprofit.Sosomepositivetrends
areneverthelessbeingfelt.Sowhetherornotitisthebottomisa
goodsubjectforyourbrotherjournalisttoexercisehiswit.Butin
essence,thequestionismuchmoreserious.Thequestionis,arethere
seriousgroundsherefortheresumptionofsustainableeconomicgrowth?

[Kozlova]Andwhatisthesituationhere?

[Ulyukayev]Themostimportantthingistheadaptationoftheeconomyto
thenewconditions.Thelevelofadaptationishigh,wecanseethis.A
largenumberofsupporttools,andseveralelementsintheanti-crisis
planhaveprovedtobeunneeded.Theyturnedouttobeunnecessary,the
systemitselfrestructured.Ontheotherhand,thevulnerabilityand
excessivedependenceoftheeconomyoncommoditiesarestillpresent.So
worldshockshavehadamajoreffectonus.Thesecondimportantpoint
isthegradualnormalizationofthesituationwithinterestratesinthe
economyandwithcreditasawhole.Thethirdistheexpectationthatin
2016growthinthepopulation'srealincomeswillresume.Fourth-
investmentactivity.Alloftheaboveinspireshopethatwewillmove
intopositivefiguresnextyear.Initiallynothigh,countedintenths
ofpercents.Butwewilltrytoincreasethispace.

Fiftydollarsabarrel

[Kozlova]Sowhatwillhappenwithoilprices?Thefuturefateofthe
roublealsodependsonthis...

[Ulyukayev]Thecurrentsituationwithoilpricesistheresultofa
convergenceofseveralfactors,bothonthedemandsideandthesupply
side.Soseveralmoremonthswillbeneededformanufacturersand
consumerstofindanewbalance.Formanycountriesalevelof35-40
dollarsabarrelisunacceptable.Theirbudgetsarecalculatedona
priceof60-90dollars.Ours,incidentally,isoneofthemost
conservative,itassumes50dollars.OnlyNorwayandKazakhstanhavea
lowerprice.Butthingscannotcontinuelikethisforlong.Anew
balancemustbefound.Myfeelingisthatthisbalancewillbefound
duringthesecondhalfof2016.Itseemstomethatitwillbeata
levelofaround50dollarsabarrel.Forecastingoilpricesisavery
thanklesstask.Timewilltell.

Sanctionasablessing

[Kozlova]Wehavebeenlivingundersanctionsformorethanayearnow.
Canaconclusionbedrawn?

[Ulyukayev]Atfirstitwasverypainful.Painfulbecauseitwas
impossibletorefinance.Becausetheacquisitionoftechnologieswas
calledintoquestion.Painfulbecauseexchangeratecorrelations
immediatelychanged.Andthismeansthatdependenceonimports,imported
componentsinplaceswherethiswashigh,immediatelyresultedinan
increaseinprices.

Butitturnedoutthattherestrictedaccesstoglobalcapitalmarkets
isnotonlyamisfortunebutalsoablessing.Becausefollowingthe
devaluation,costsfell,andthismeansthatthefinancialpositionof
companiesimproved.Becausewegotusedtothecapitaloutflow,whichis
nowcharacteristicofallthedevelopingcountries,beforetheothersdid.

Onthewhole,theinfluenceofthesanctionsnowisclosetozero.It
cannotbeeternal.Inthisracebetweentheshieldandthesword,the
shieldisperhapsmorereliable.Oureconomyhasbecomemorediverse.We
nowhaveamuchbiggershareofdomesticproductioninthestructureof
retailandwholesaletrade.Andgreaterstabilityofcompaniesasawhole.

AboutUkraineandTurkey

[Kozlova]Letusmovetoanotherofourrealities,whichwillhappen
herefrom1January.SanctionsagainstUkraineenterintoforce...

[Ulyukayev]ThestorywithUkrainedidnotoccur"suddenly".Wehave
beenpreparingforitfortwoyears.Ukraineiscreatingafreetrade
zonewiththeEuropeanUnion-Godhelpit.ButUkraineislinkedto
Russiabyalargenumberofagreements.Veterinary,customs,andmany
others.Joininganothersystemofrelationsmeansthattheruleshaveto
bedifferentaswell.Otherwise,itwillbecomemuchmoredifficultfor
ourexporterstooperateinthismarket.Ukraineisnotmaintainingany
commitmentstowardsus,butitwantsustokeepourstoit.Thatdoes
nothappen.Sowearetakingmeasurestosupportoureconomy.Wehave
broughtourcommitmentsintolinewiththeircommitments.Thatis,we
havecancelledthepreferentialregime,andUkrainianproducerswillnow
paythesamedutyascountrieswithmostfavouredregimestatus-like
Germany,Sweden,orAmerica.

ItisanothermatterthatafoodembargoisbeingintroducedforUkraine
atthesametimeasthis.Buttime-wise,thisisjustacoincidence.It
isaresponsetothefactthatUkrainejoinedtheanti-Russiansanctions
inJulythisyear.ThatiswhythesameregimeasfortheEUcountries
wasintroduced.Ifthishadbeeneventwoyearsago,whenfoodimports
fromUkrainewereoftheorderof2bndollars,thiswouldhavebeen
perceptiblebuttheyhavenowfallen11-foldintwoyears.Nowtheyare
worthlessthan200mdollars.Sowearenotexpectinganyinflation
spikes...

[Kozlova]ButthenwearealsointroducingsanctionsagainstTurkey...

[Ulyukayev]Thisisaproblemthatsuddenlyfelluponus,thisis
aggression.Andthepresident'sdecreethatweallknowaboutwasthe
responsetothisaggression.ForTurkeythefoodembargoisnarrower.
Butseveralconsequencesarepossibleasaresultoftheradicaland
abruptnatureofthesechanges.Includinginflationaryones.For
example,ourdependenceontheTurkishmarketforvegetablesisquite
large-tomatoes,primarily.Thereisnothingparticularlycomplicated
aboutthis,becausetherearealargenumberofsuppliersthatareready
tooccupythisniche.Theonlythingisthattimewillbeneededto
concludenewcontractsanddevelopthelogistics.Timewillbeneeded,
duringwhichitispossiblethattherewillbesomedistortions,
includingwithregardtoprices.Ithinkthatthisisamatterofafew
weeksormonths,duringthecourseofwhichthesituationwillbe
stabilized.

Pensionsissueandtaxes

[Kozlova]RaisingtheretirementageinRussia.So,doesitneedtobe
raisedornot?

[Ulyukayev]Itisimpossibletomanagewithoutthis.BecausethePension
Funddeficitwillincrease,thecorrelationbetweenworkersand
pensionersisconstantlychanginginfavourofpensioners.The
demographicsindicatethatthetimespentinretirementisincreasing
andthetimespentatworkingageisdecreasing-thedemographic
pyramidwhosebasewasmuchwiderthanthetophasbeenoverturned.
Hypotheticallytherearetwooptions.Thefirst.Changingthe
demographiccorrelationsothatthenumberofworkersrelativetothe
numberofpensionersincreasesordoesnotfall.Raisingtheretirement
ageservespreciselythispurpose.Thesecondoption.Itispossiblenot
todothisbutthenyouwillhavetobepreparedfortheso-called
replacementratetostarttofall.Thatis,thecorrelationbetween
pensioners'incomes-pensions-andaveragesalarieswillsteadily
decline.Thequestioniswho,asitwere,willpaytheprice?Thesecond
option,wherecurrentpensionerspay,istheworst.Thepensioners'
risksarethegreatestbecausetheydependonmedicines,thepriceof
food,elderlypeoplemustbebetterprotected.Sothesecondmethodis
notsuitable,itisunjust,andcompletelyinhuman.Thefirstremains.

[Kozlova]Soitwilldefinitelyberaised!

[Ulyukayev]Iamalwayssurprised-whydopensionersworryaboutthe
retirementagerising?Thiswillnotaffectthem,theyareworrying
needlessly.Thereisnoneedforthemtobeconcerned.Itisyoung
peopleandmiddle-agedpeoplewhoneedtoworryaboutthis.ButIthink
thatthisactivegenerationshouldbepreparedforitbeforehand,they
shouldhavetimetotakethenecessarydecision.Toearnmore,change
qualifications,enterthevoluntarysavingssystem.Allofthisis
extremelyimportant.Soraisingtheretirementageisessentiallya
mandatorydecisioninthissense.Thesoonerwetakeit,theless
radicalitwillbe.

[Kozlova]Thisshould,evidently,beagradualtransition?

[Ulyukayev]Ofcourse,therewillbeagradualtransition.Itisplanned
thatfrom1January2018menwillretirenotattheageof60likenow,
butat60.6.From1January2019,at61.From1January2020,at61.6.
Andsoon.Andatsomepointwewillreachtheageof63-65-identical
formenandwomen.

[Kozlova]Andanotherinitiative,whichtheFinanceMinistryalso
periodicallysuggests-itsaystaxeswillhavetoberaised...

[Ulyukayev]Here,Iamcategoricallyagainst.Whataretaxes?Theyarea
sortofsocialcontract.Wepaytaxesforreceivingpublicservicesfrom
thestate.Security,environmentalprotection,healthcare,supportfor
culture.Therearecountrieswherepeoplearewillingtopaybigger
taxesbecausetheygetmoreservicesfromthestate.Therearecountries
thatgetrelativelyfewservicesbuttheyalsopaylittletax.But
havingtheideathatitispossibletotakemoretaxesfromthe
populationwhilenotprovidingthemwithhigh-qualitypublicservicesis
astrangeidea.Ifinadditiontothepolice,wheretherearemorethan
amillionpeople,youalsosupportprivatesecuritycompanies-another
millionpeople,thismeansbusinessespaytwice.Andthisunderminesthe
foundationsoftrustbetweenthetaxpayersandthestate.Inmyview,
thefiscalburdenisexcessivenow,andnottoolow.Weneedtothink
aboutreducingthetaxburdenandnotaboutincreasingit.

[Kozlova]Agoodidea.

[Ulyukayev]No,themostimportantthingisthatthisisanideathat
hasbeentested.Afterall,atthebeginningofthiscenturythatishow
weacted.Weabolishedturnovertaxes,introducedaflatscalefor
incometax,andasaresultwedidnotgetlessbutmoretax.Itworked.

Abitofpoetry

[Kozlova]Iknowthatyouseeminglysetthemuseasidewhenyoutookup
thispostbutperhapsyoucancomeupwithsomethingfortheNewYear?
Perhapsyoucanreadsomething?

[Ulyukayev]Oneshortpoeminspiredabitbythecurrentstrangewinter.

"Theicethins,sleepgetsdeeper.
Wetwistourfingersatourtemples
Eitherdespairfromtea,
Orcoffeeyearning.
Incomprehensiblethreats
Makeourdreamsthin.
EitherfromSantaClaus,
OrfromtheSpringMaiden."

IneverthelesshopethatifnotSantaClausthentheSpringMaidenwill
definitelybringusallwedeserve:aquietlife,comfort,prosperity,
andhappinessforus,andourchildren.
[returntoContents]<#n0>

#5
Gazeta.ru
December26,2015
Russianpunditviewscurrentregime,likelyfuturescenarios
NatalyaGalimovainterviewwithEffectivePolicyFoundationheadGleb
Pavlovskiy:'TheKremlinIsLivingWithoutSensingtheCountryBeneath
It'EffectivePolicyFoundationHeadGlebPavlovskiyontheRussian
SystemofManagement

Theyear2016willbethemomentoftruthforthecurrentmodelfor
treatingthestate.AtransformationisinevitableinRussia,andit
willbeprecededbyyetonemoreescalation,EffectivePolicyFoundation
headGlebPavlovskiybelieves.Butthroughitsescalationstheregimeis
creatingademandforextremalitywhichitcannotsatisfy.Someoneelse
couldenterthestatevacuum.Thatwashowin1917LeninandTrotskiy
filledthe"demandforgreatness"createdbytheProvisionalGovernment.

[Galimova]Inthebook"TheRussianFederationSystem.Sourcesof
RussianStrategicBehaviour,"youcharacterizePutin's2012-2015-model
styleofmanagementas"thestyleofindirectinterpretation."His
entouragetodayleavesthepresident"withanincompleteideaaboutwhat
hasbeendecidedandtryingtorememberthewordsPutinuttered."The
president"buildsrelationsinsuchawaythathecanalwayssay:Idid
notknowthatandIdidnotpromisethat."Hehas"constructedabovethe
regimeanunreachablefloorwherehealoneresides.Andalthoughhe
stillhascontactwithhisentourage,hedoesnotwanttobear
responsibilityfordecisions."

Pleaseciteexamplesofthemanifestationofthe"indirect
interpretationstyle."

[Pavlovskiy]Youcanseethemeverydayandheartheminanyspeech.
WhatdoesPutin'sfamousexpression"decideforyourselves"mean-isit
givingusafreehand?Ofcoursenot.Itistheimpossibilityof
managementbydirectivewhencontrolismaintainedthroughthetechnique
ofuncertainty.TheentiremanagementoftheUkrainecrisisafterCrimea
wasconductedinthatmanner.

Takethepresident'smessage-itcontainsphraseswhichcanbe
interpretedincontradictoryways.Eitherastherejectionofescalation
orasdefencealongtheperimeter.Thepresidentmetwiththecaptains
ofbusiness,andwhatdidhesaytothosecaptains?Heconducteda
politicalbriefingwiththembasedonthecurrentpress,andthe
captainsremainedcompletelysilent.

Andthisisnotaboutonemanbutaboutthefeaturesofthesystem.

Ifwehadbeforeusatrulybureaucraticpowervertical,itwouldaccept
directivesandcarrythemout.Butwearetalkingaboutasystemto
whichorderscannotbegiven.

Itisastatelesssystem,thatisanon-bureaucraticsystem.The
monstrousexecutiveapparatusisalwaysbusyandiswhollyengrossed
withdeals.Itisafunctioningbutundisciplinedsystemsimilarnotto
astatebuttotheGorbushka[software,music,andvideomarketin
Moscow],ortheYuzhnyyport[automobilemarket].Itissavedbya
spinelessreadiness,afterithasreceivedasignaltoitsadvantage,to
turntheotherway.Soordersareissuedintheformofanindirecthint
or,astheysay,a"signal,"andthatlaunchesanewseriesofdeals.

[Galimova]WhywasitduringPutin'scurrentpresidentialtermthatthis
styleofmanagementarose?

[Pavlovskiy]Itdidnotarise,itflowered.Thechoiceofdirectionwas
madeunderBorisYeltsin.ItwasachoiceinfavourofaPresidential
Stafftechnocracywiththesuper-sovereigntyoftheheadofstate.When,
forinstance,BorisNikolayevich[Yeltsin]inconversationwithEldar
Ryazanovcouldsay:"IwakeupandIthink,whoshallIgivethecountry
to?"Asthoughheweretalkingaboutagarage.Andhesincerelybelieved
heownedthecountry.

Thechoiceinfavourofthecountryasthepresident'sdomainandnotas
apoliticalnationoranideologicalgoalwasdefinitivelymadebetween
1993and1996.

Afterall,youconstantlyhearitsaid:"Thatisforthepresidentto
decide."Andatthesametimeeveryoneunderstandsthatthepresidentis
notengagedwith,forinstance,thehousingandmunicipalservices
problem.Hecannotdeterminethesizeofthefineforlong-haultruck
drivers.Buteverythingispresentedasallegedlyhispersonaldecision.
Alldecisionsareattributedtoonemanbecausetherearenoprocedures
forthepassageofmanagementsignals.Thesystemdoesnotdareto
abandonit.Herenothingcanbedictatedfromthetopexcept
prohibitionsforthepopulation.ThatwaswhenTurkishtomatoessuddenly
becamedisgustingwhileitseemedthat,conversely,therewasnothing
wrongwithGeorgianwines.

Butwhatdoesabanmean?Anewdemandforservices.Phoningroundyour
friendsandplacinganorderfortheproductionofincinerators(devices
forburningrubbishandotherwaste-Gazeta.Ru)forburningfood.But
thatisnotcorruption,butataxfarmingstate.Weareruledbytax
farmers.

ItisdangerousfortouriststoflytoEgypt,itisbanned.Why?Weare
notatwarwithEgypt,weviewitasafriendlycountry.Butwehave
treateditasthoughitwereahostilestate.

ByalsodestroyingtourismtoTurkeywehavetreatedoururbanmiddle
class-thesystem'smostloyalsupporters-asserfs.Wehavedeprived
themofthefreedomofconsumerchoice.Thelastremainingfreedom!

[Galimova]DoyounotthinkthatthebanonflightsfirsttoEgyptand
thenoncharterflightstoTurkeyisexplainedinteraliabythe
regime'splantoensureaninfluxofvacationerstoCrimea?Farfrom
everyonecantraveltoEurope-particularlywhenyouconsiderthe
currentexchangerates.

[Pavlovskiy]Explanationsofthatkindarechosenwhenthereisan
obviouslackofpurpose.Anyideaofoursofheroicallyconqueringhasa
subtext-liningourpockets.Wedestroycommunications.Wewant
simultaneouslytoprovideapicturefortheSundayTVprogrammesand
showtheTurkshowangryweareandatthesametimeallowtourismto
earnmoneyforCrimea,wheretheyhavealreadysaidtheywillnottake
everyone.Butambiguityofthatkindalwayscomesacropper.Thereis
nothingleftexceptpeoplebeingaccustomedtobosseswhoareincapable
ofmanagingorderingeveryoneabout.Andorderingthemtonopurpose.
Thechampionwordof2015is"absurdity"-itcanbeheardfromthe
Kremlincorridorstothemostfar-flungregions.

"ThememorandaonPutin'sdeskarereportsofattacksbyreptilians"

[Galimova]Athisannualpressconferencethepresidentconfused
GovernorTurchakwithhisfatherandshowedhewasunfamiliarwithhow
paidparkinglotsareintroducedinMoscow.Putinisobviouslybeing
misinformed.Inyourview,towhatdegreedotheRussianleadershipand
Putinpersonallyunderstand,know,andfeelwhatishappeninginthe
country?

[Pavlovskiy]InformationflowsintotheKremlinfromeverywhereandof
coursethereareplentyoflies.Butallpresidentsintheworldare
liedto,thequestionisthemaliceofthelies.Yourecallthe
"Agitprop"thatexistedintheUSSRandhowitfriedourbrainswith
"MalayaZemlya"[abookaboutBrezhnev'sallegedwartimeexploits]and
solidaritywiththebloodyEthiopiansonofabitchMengistuMariam?In
Russiathereis"neoprop"-themachineryofstultifyingtelevision
propaganda.Itpumpsupthepopulation'sloyaltybykeepingthemass
consciousnessinastateofhysteria.Russia'speoplearebeingmovedto
theworldofasinisterpoliticalserial,andthatiswheretheylive.

Butthiscausesthecountry'sleaderstolosetheabilitytomake
strategicdecisionsandtoassessrisks.Eveniftheythemselveswantto
shieldthemselvesfromtheirownpropaganda.Imagineforaminutethat
Putin,likemyself,doesnotwatchtelevision.Idon'tbelieveit,but
let'sassumeso.However,allaroundhimaretelevisionviewerswhohave
assimilatedthelanguageoflies.Anetworkoffalsestoriesinwhich
reptiliansareprowlingaroundtheKremlinhasbeenimposedontopof
reality.Therearerealthreats,butyoucannotseethembecauseyouare
toldtheyhavefoundfascistsfromtheMoonin"Memorial"[humanrights
organization].IamconvincedthatthememorandaonPutin'sdeskare
reportsofattacksbyreptiliansandofUFOsshotdownovertheweek.

"Neoprop"operatesasanall-Russianmultiplierofstupidity.Inthis
distortedpictureoftheworld,theMalaysianBoeingdownedthrough
stupiditycanbeportrayedasanaircraftcontainingdeadbodies
launchedbytheCIAinorderto"bringPutindown."Lookatitthrough
theeyesofthepoorKremlintelevisionviewer:Sincethereareenemies,
whoarealso"ourpartners,"whyforthesakeofaKremlincoupshould
theynotundertakeasimpleoperation-fillingaBoeingwithdead
bodiesanddroppingitovertheDonetsBasin?

Realityhasbeendissolvedinfantasyandtheydonotsensetherisks.

Afterall,itwassaidthatSyriawassimply"militaryexercises,"
right?OurbombersweresometimesedgingalongtheTurkish-Syrian
border,butthatdidnotseemtobeaproblemfortheKremlin.Itwas
justliketakingoffinKubinka[airbasenearMoscow]andcrossing
SmolenskayaOblastandaccidentlycuttingacorneracrossBelarus.Where
aretheytoacquireanunderstandingofhowtheworldliveswhentheTV
newshasalreadydescribedhowitisstructuredwithRothschildthere
andSoros,Browder,andtheCIAhere?

ApoliticiancannotwatchRussianpoliticaltelevisionandremainrational.

Ostankino's"neoprop"iscrackcocaine,youloseyoursenseofreality.

[Galimova]Whatisthedangerofthelossofreality?

[Pavlovskiy]Whateveryoulike,inparticularbeingpreparedto
sacrificeourselves.Emotionallywearealreadyripefortheroleof
Christmasturkeys.Weonlyeverwantedwhatwasgood,wehaverisenfrom
ourknees,wearethegreatRussia...Butwhentheshowendswesay:
"Ri..i..ght,wehavebeenwrongagain!"Anditcouldendanywayyou
like,giventhattheKremlinisnotsafeguardingnationalsecurityand
issaunteringaroundcriminalregionsliketheMiddleEast,provoking
itsneighboursovertrifles.

Wehavecreptintotheworldasignoramuses,rejectingtheconservative
diplomacycustomaryforRussia.TheForeignMinistryistalkingprison
slanglikeahoodlumandisoffendedthat"theydonotunderstandus"
andwaitingforeveryonetorushtoMoscowtonegotiate.Theclassesof
therealthreatshavenotbeenidentified.TheauthoritieswatchStar
Wars.TheyfighttheenvironmentalistVitishko,"OpenRussia,"andthe
pop-whistleblowerNavalnyyasthoughtheywerefightingtheDeathStar
(thecombatspacestationfromStarWars-Gazeta.ru).Thatisagiftto
Russia'srivals-intheircapitalsandcorporationheadquartersgroups
ofclevermenareselectingthemomentforputtingtheignoramus'snose
outofjoint.Itwillallendwithablackout:Afterfailingtoresolve
thelatestselectionoftasks,theSystemwillbeleftinlimboandwill
cometoastandstill.

Whatismostdangerousseemstometobethelossofthetiesbetween
thestateandthepopulationandallitsgroups.Televisionhasremained
theonlyformofconnection.

Butthisisnotastrongconnection,itneedstobefedfrombudget
revenue.ButtheKremlinisreckless.Whydoexcessivelyreckless
gamblerslose?Notbecausetheyareidiotsbutbecausetheydonotknow
howtostopgamblingattherighttime.Ourregimeisencouraging
protractedgamblinginordertokeepthemassesinaconstantstateof
excitement.

[Galimova]Butontheotherhand,whilepeopleareinthatstatethey
arelessinclinedtoblametheirmisfortunesontheregime,believing
economicproblemstohavebeeninspiredbyRussia'senemies.Youdonot
expectanythinguntowardfrompeopleinthatstate.Although,ofcourse,
therearealso"glitches"-aswiththelong-haultruckdrivers,for
instance.

[Pavlovskiy]Howtocreateinthe"ordinaryman"afalsesenseof
belongingtotheregime?IntheUSSRtheyhadgreatdifficultyseeking
todothis,theysetupmeetingsatalllevels-fromyardmeetingsto
meetingsatworkshopsandfactories.Thereisnothingofthekindnow.
Itisthemassofsupporters,the"overwhelmingmajority,"whichthey
useattimestofrightenthecountryandatotherstoinstructit,which
actsasthecontrollerofbehaviour.Itisonlyasenseofthe
situation'semergencynaturethatimposesdiscipline.

Whenapersonisvigilantandislookingroundhiminalarm,thatmeans
heisutterlyharmless.Butheisalsoeconomicallyuncompetitive.

Unrenewableresourceshavetobebroughtintoplay.Theregimecannot
stopthegame,andincaseslikethatpeoplealwayslose.Whenthegame
stops,everythingwillgrindtoahalt.

"Wehavesleepwalkersinfrontofus"

[Galimova]IsSyriaalsoagame?

[Pavlovskiy]Ofcourse.It'shuntingforanonexistentcatinthedark
roomwheretheevilTurkmenlive.

[Galimova]Whatwasthemainaim-divertingtheWest'sattentionfrom
Ukraine,thusbreakingoutofisolation,keepingAl-Asadinpower,or
demonstratingtocitizensthatwithoutRussiaitisimpossibleto
resolveasingleimportantprobleminthisworld?

[Pavlovskiy]Makingaspectacularentranceontotheworldstage,sitting
ontheglobalthrone,andoncetherethinkingwhattodonext.The
Kremlinhasnodesiretofocusonasinglemainaim,andthereisno
aim.IthadtoemergefromisolationfollowingtheUkrainestory.Andit
wasclearthattheUnitedStateswouldnothaveletuscrawlawayeasily
-wehadtohithard.Andwedidhithard!Butafterhitting,wehadto
recordarapidprofit,thewaytheydowithriskystockexchange
operations.Wehadtochangethegame.Butno,wehitoutagainand
again.SincetheTurkishscandalwehavebeengraduallyceasingto
understandwhatwearedoingandweareobviouslywaitingfora
promptingfromWashington.

NowIraqhasstartedtobeofinteresttous.Butitisalwayslikethat
intheMiddleEast-onceyouhavegottenthere,theyarehappytoplay
withyou.Theywillpiqueyourinterestandensnareyou.

Inourcountrytheythink:"Wewillnotletourselvesbemisled-there
willbenosecondAfghanistan."ButthisisnoAfghanistan.

HeretheywillpretendtobeafriendlikeAnwaral-Sadat(theformer
presidentofEgypt-Gazeta.Ru)andwaitforyoutoturnyourback...

[Galimova]Inyouropinion,doestheRussianleadershiphavean
understandingoftheconditionsunderwhichwecouldendtheoperation
inSyria?Putinsaiditwilllastaslongasthegovernmenttroops'
offensiveagainstthepositionsofISIL(bannedinRussia-Gazeta.Ru).
Butthatsoundstoooblique.

[Pavlovskiy]Wehaveenteredasituationwithoutanalysinghowwewill
getout.Whatarewecountingon?Ontheworldbeinginachaoticstate
andontwoorthreeeventsunexpectedlychangingthemilitaryand
politicalsituation.Whatevents-wedonotknow,butwhodoesknow?
LikethestoryoftherefugeesinEurope,whichhasoverturnedthe
Europeanagenda,creatingforusaSyriancorridorofintervention.In
2016therewillprobablybeacoupleofwindowsofthatkindthrough
whichwemayjump(outofSyria-Gazeta.Ru).Butwedonotknowwhether
wewanttojumpout!

Butyoushouldnotseethisasmerestupidity.Itisaprofound
disorientationlinkedtothelossof25yearsofcomfortfromthe
benefitsofglobalization.

TheKremlinislivingwithoutsensingthecountrybeneathit.The
situationistragic,becausewehavesleepwalkersinfrontofus.

[Galimova]AfterTurkeyshotdowntheRussianbomber,peoplestarted
saying,thatishowwarsstart:Noonewantedamilitaryconfrontation,
butthesituationbecameheatedandithappened.Attherecentmeeting
oftheNATOcountries'foreignministers,thediplomatsadmittedthat
theydidnotruleoutmirror-imagemeasuresfromMoscowwithrespectto
Ankara,buttheyhadnopreciseunderstandingofhowPutinwouldreact.
Fortunately,thereactioninresponsewasnotofamilitarynature.But
thequestionremains:IsadirectclashpossiblebetweenRussiaanda
countrythatisamemberofthealliance?

[Pavlovskiy]ThefactthattheNATOcountriesdonotunderstandhow
Putinwillreactisnotanadvantageforus,butanadditionalrisk.
Whenyoudonotknowwhatthreatstoexpectfromyourformerpartnerwho
hassuddenlydecidedtobecomeyouradversary,thenormalreflexthat
arisesistoplayitsafe.

Take2014.TheinteractionbetweenRussiaandtheWestcanbedescribed
asasuccessionofsituationsinvolvingtheexchangeofblows.TheWest
hurriedlymakesthefirstdecisionsthatcometohand,afterall,
somethinghadtobedecided!:Crimeahadbeentaken,wouldOdesa
[Odessa]betakentomorrow?AndfromOstankinotheywereshouting:"Yes,
wewilltakeit!WewilltakeOdesaandKyiv[Kiev]andwewillgetto
Lviv!"WhatwastheWestsupposedtothink?Thedegreeofescalationwas
climbingandatacertainmomentsomeonemighthavelosttheirnerve.

Themostseriousepicfailforourpseudo-bellicositywasthatwehadno
ideaoffightingtovictory.WhenBushwentintotheMiddleEast,hehad
theideaofbuilding"ademocraticGreaterMiddleEast."Helostawhole
pileofmoney,heplungedtheregionintoturmoilandbloodandachieved
nothing.Butheneverthelesshadavictoryplanandhehadhis15
minutesofglory:Baghdadwastaken.

Wearewagingawarwithoutanidea,withoutanultimategoal,and
withoutachanceofwinning.AndwhatmightvictoryinSyrialooklike?

Al-Asadwilltakecontrolofthecountry'sentireterritoryasKadyrov
seniordidwithChechnya?Thatisunrealistic.HewillcarveoffSyria's
Alawitechunkandreignthere?Inthatcasehewillbeoverthrownand
"eatenup"rightthereinthepalace.

[Galimova]Butathirdscenarioispossible-Al-Asadhandingoverpower
toanothercandidateacceptablealsotous.

[Pavlovskiy]Thepeoplewhodonotknowhowtosolvetheproblemof
supplyingMoscowwithtomatoeswillknowhowtostructureasystemfor
managingSyria?AndwillovercomeTurkeyatthesametime?Don'tmakeme
laugh.

"Someoneelsecouldfillthestatevacuum"

[Galimova]Youtalkalotaboutthesystem'sshortcomingsand
weaknesses.Wheredoesitsstrengthlie?

[Pavlovskiy]Thesystemissplendid.Ithasskilfullydodgedthe
threats.Onseveraloccasionsalreadywehaveavoideddefeatwithout
resolvingthequestionofbuildingthestate.
Theveryfactthatwestillexisttodayinthiscurrentstatelessform
isalreadyagreatsuccess.Unlessyoutakealookaheadto2016,ofcourse.

[Galimova]Whyisthesystemmanagingtododgeaway?Isthisluck,good
fortune?

[Pavlovskiy]Notatall.Itisahighdegreeofmobilityand"agility."
TheshortcomingsandmeritsoftheRussianFederationSystemlieinone
andthesamething-itisnotastate.Ifthepresentteamwereto
starthonestlysettingupstableandlawfulinstitutions,theresult
wouldbeaweakstatewithamediocreeconomy.Butwearenotbuilding
institutions,weconqueredGeorgia.WecanalsooccupytheArcticas
longastheicedoesnotmelt.WhenBushJuniorwasteachingtheKremlin
geopoliticshelikedtosay:"Youstudythefacts-wemakethem!"Now
byannexingCrimea,wetoohavecreatedourownfacts.Butpleasenote
thattheKremlinhaslessideathananyonewhattodowiththem.

TheRussianFederationsystemisunique.Tobehonest,Icannotfindany
closeanalogies.

Asacountrywedonotbelieveinanything,butweareableartificially
tocreateasituationofbeliefinourselves.Wedonotbelievein
principlesorinlong-termcoalitionsbasedonideologyorfriendship
andwearenottryingtocreatethem.TheRussianFederationaroseina
periodwhenithadnoalliesleftintheprecisesenseoftheword,even
theformerUSSRrepublicswantedtocutloose.Andthesystemlearnedto
survivealoneattheexpenseoftherestoftheworldbyanoriginalmethod.

[Galimova]InyourbookyoutalkamongotherthingsaboutthePutin
majority,believingthat"onedayitwillbecomeapocalypticfor
Russia":"Ithasalreadyproventhatforthesakeofpreservingits
positionandemotionalwell-beingitispreparedtocarryoutanyacts
oftyrannyinsideandoutsidethecountry.Anduponhearingthecallof
amorepowerfulextreme,itrespondstoiteagerly."Wheredoyousee
thePutinmajority'sapocalypticrole?

[Pavlovskiy]Itisallsimple:Thereisthepopulationlivingona
modestannuityfromtheregimeintheabsenceofapoliticalnation,
policy,orstate.Butthisisa"Praetorianmajority."Ithasgrown
accustomedtothemagicatmosphereofextremalityandmiracles-
miraclessimultaneouslydangerousandprofitable.Wehavean"almost
war,"butatthesametimeeveryoneknowsthatinactualfactthereis
nowar,yetitisbreathtaking.Escalationafterescalation.Todaythe
audiencehasbeenwarmedup,butwhereisthesoloist?

TheKremlinteamnolongerofferstheattractivelyprofitablepolicyit
promised.Ithasturnedoutthattheconcerthasbeenpostponedbutwe
havetopaytwiceoverforourseats.

Astatevacuumhasarisenwhichsomeoneelsecouldfill.Withaslightly
moreprofitableproposalforthePraetorianmass.

[Galimova]Someonetrulyradical?

[Pavlovskiy]Wehavelotsofradicalswhotalkthetalk.Theproblemis
notradicalismbutthefactthatthroughitsmilitaryescalationsthe
regimeiscreatingademandtowhichitwillbeunabletorespond.The
situationwasmoreorlessthesamein1917.Theprovisionalgovernment
appropriatedforitselftheprerogativesoftheoverthrownmonarchand
theStateDuma.

AndKerenskiy'sjabberingabouthowRussiahadrisenfromitskneesand
wouldbeanexampletothewholeworldfuelledanappetiteforsomething
ofindeterminategrandeur.LeninandTrotskiyquietlycameinviathis
backdoor.

[Galimova]Butin1917thesituationinRussiawascompletelydifferent.

[Pavlovskiy]Iamnotcomparingpeople.Iamsayingthatinpolitics
anyonewhobuildsupexpectationsofmiraclesbeyondhispowersto
deliverispreparinganinvitationforsomeoneelse.Theregimeis
rushingtobringthefuturecloserbutisnotthinkingaboutitandhas
bannedpoliticiansfromtalkingaboutit.Meanwhileresourcesare
runningoutandthefutureisevercloserandevermorepainful.

Isee2016asa"terminal"year-themomentoftruthforthismodelfor
treatingthestate.

[Galimova]Why2016inparticular?

[Pavlovskiy]IncantationsaboutagreatRussiawithdwindlingresources
andanobviousinabilitytomanagewhatisleftareacceleratingthe
crisis.Everythingiscavingin,thereislessmoney,yettheCentral
Bankchairmanisadvisingusnottolookatcurrencyexchangeratesand
atthehabitsofthemiddleclasses.Ithinksomekindoftransformation
isinevitableinthecountry-ofcourse,itistobedesiredthatit
willnotbeadestructiveone-butbeforethatyoucanexpectyet
anotherescalation.AndaccordingtothelawsofRussianescalations,
thenextoneshouldbebroaderandmoreriskythanthepastones.

[Galimova]If2016isthefinaletothepresentbehaviouralmodel,what
willcomenext?

[Pavlovskiy]Afinaleisnotadisaster.Thefantasymachineiscoming
toahaltanditisclearthatithasnothingmoretoplaywith:No
money,nomobility,nosupportersorcompetentcadres.Butwhen
resourcescollapse,adecisionhastobemaderapidly,youhavetomake
not"geopolitical"decisionsbutrealones.Whenitbecomesclearthat
thereisnostateandthecommandcontrolcentrehas"gonefora
Klinskoye"[referencetocommercialforKlinskoyebeer]peoplewill
startdoingsomething.

[Galimova]Isitpossiblethatthesituationwillchangeinpartthrough
theelectionstotheStateDumawhichwillinfacttakeplacein2016?

[Pavlovskiy]Anyrealagendafor2016willrequireanauditofthe
countryandofavailableresources.Whatdowestillhave?Whoisstill
doinghisjobratherthansafeguardinghisdacha?Whathastoberevoked
immediately?

Forinstance,aconsiderableproportionofthecurrentDuma'soutputcan
becategorizedasuseless.ThisisthemostingloriousofallDumasover
thepast100years.

Itwouldbegoodifaconsensusweretoforminsocietyaroundtheidea
thatthedeputiesofthisDumashouldnotenterthenextDuma-anyof
them.Thentheelectionsmightstillacquirestatevalue.Butinany
eventtheelectionswillbedifferentfromthewayoursagesare
planningthem.Andwhatexactlytheywillbelikeisaquestionfor
thosewhogotoplayonthisfieldandhowhaveastakethere.Ihaveno
stakeinit.
[returntoContents<#n0>]

#6
Sputnik
January4,2016
WeakRubletoHelpRussiaWithstandLowOilPrices

WASHINGTON(Sputnik)-Russianoilindustrywillendurelowcommodity
pricesduetoRussia'sweakenednationalcurrency,Moody'sInvestors
ServicesaidinapressreleaseonMonday.

"Russia'sweakrublewillhelpthecountry'snationaloilcompanies
withstandlowoilprices,buteconomicsanctionslimitaccessto
long-termexternalfinancingfromUSandEUfinancialandcapital
marketsfortheRussiangiantRosneft(Ba1stable),"thereleasestated.

InDecember2015,pricesforBrentoilfellbelow$37perbarrel,
reachingalevellastseeninDecember2008.Followingthedecline,the
valueofRussia'sruble,whichistraditionallydependentontheprice
ofoil,felltoa3.5-monthminimumagainstthedollar,exceeding71
rublesperdollar.

Moody'sarguedthattheglobaloilandgasindustrywillhavetoreduce
spendingin2016inthefaceofdecreasingoilprices.Theratingagency
addedthatexcesssupplywillcontinuetoinfluencetheoilsector,
whichwilllikelyseeariseindefaultsin2016.

Moody'salsonotedthatnationaloilcompaniesinLatinAmericawill
likelyfacehighrefinancingrisk,whileChina'sthreenationaloil
companies-ChinaNationalPetroleumCorporation,ChinaPetrochemical
CorporationandChinaNationalOffshoreOilCorporation-willhaveto
confrontdeterioratingcreditmetricsthrough2017.

ThestrengthoftheRussiancurrencyagainsttheUSdollarhasdeclined
twofoldsincethebeginningof2014amidtheWesterneconomicsanctions
imposedonRussiaoverMoscow'sallegedinvolvementintheUkraine
crisisaswellastheglobalcollapseinoilprices.Russiahas
repeatedlyrefutedanyinvolvementinUkraine'sinternalaffairs.

[returntoContents<#n0>]

#7
Sputnik
January3,2015
RussiaOilOutputRisestoNewRecordHighin2015

Russia'soilproductionreachedarecord534.081millionmetrictonsin
2015,mediareportssaid.

PeoplewalksinfrontoftheLukoilNeftochimHeadquartersinSofiaon
July27,2011

In2015,Russia'soiloutputamountedtoarecord534.081millionmetric
tons,40percenthigherthanin2014,accordingtomediareports.

Russia'soilexportstonon-CIScountriesincreasedby10.6percentand
reached220.267milliontons,sourcessaid.

Rosneftremainsthecountry'slargestoilcompanyitproducedmorethan
189millionmetrictonsofoillastyear.ComingonRosneft'sheelsare
LukoilandSurgutneftegas,withoiloutputstandingatover85million
metrictonsand61millionmetrictons,respectively.

InlateDecember,RussianEnergyMinisterAlexanderNovaklaidthedrop
inoilpricesatSaudiArabia'sfeet.AccordingtoNovak,SaudiArabia
increasedoilproductionby1.5millionbarrelsperdayin2015.

Attheendof2015,worldoilpricesdroppedtotheir2008level,andat
theDecember31tradingsessioncrudewasworth37.61dollarsperbarrel.

RussiaDeputyPrimeMinisterArkadyDvorkovich,forhispart,saidthat
hedoesnotbelieveoilpriceswillplummetto25dollarsperbarrel.At
thesametime,headdedthattheperiodofsuchlowprices"cannotlast
toolong."

Whenhammeredout,Russia'sbudgetfor2016stipulatedglobaloilprices
wouldbeabout50dollarsperbarrel.

[returntoContent<#n0>s]

#8
TheNationalInterest
January4,2016
TheTruthAboutSanctionsAgainstRussia
Westernsanctionshavefailedtodelivera'devastatingblow'butthey
alsoseemheretostay.
ByNikolayPakhomov
NikolayPakhomovisapoliticalanalystandconsultantinNewYorkCity.
HeisaRussianInternationalAffairsCouncilexpert.Youcanfollowhim
onTwitter@nik_pakhomov.

TheextensionofsanctionsagainstRussiabytheEUandtheirexpansion
bytheUnitedStatesdemonstratedthattherestrictivemeasureswill
remaininplacefortheforeseeablefuture.HoweverhardfortheRussian
economy,thesanctionshavenotdeliveredadevastatingblow,which
couldhaveledtoasignificantchangeinKremlinpolicy.Thesemeasures
werearguablynotcreatedtoruintheRussianeconomy,whichistoo
largeandimportantfortheworldtodowithout.Thesanctionswere
designedtowarnRussiaagainstforeignpolicyactionsthattheWest
doesnotagreewith.Instead,theybecameacrashcourseforRussian
policymakersandelites,remindingthemthatforRussiatotrulysecure
anindependentstandingininternationalrelationsitshouldbeready
andabletowithstandinternationalpressure,especiallyintheeconomic
sphere.

SincethestartofWesternsanctionsagainstRussiaithasbeenobvious
thatthemeasuresarenotassevereastheycouldhavebeen-andforgood
reason.ConsiderthesanctionsleveledagainsttheRussianenergy
sector:amongotherthings,theyhavebeenaimedatreducingfinancing
optionsforRussianenergycompaniesandpreventingthemfromdeveloping
complicatedoffshoreandArcticprojects.Bothspheresplayavery
importantroleinstrategicplanningforthesecompanies,butthe
restrictivemeasuresdidnotharmmuchoftheircurrentoperations.The
reasonissimple:Russiancompaniessupply,accordingtodifferent
estimates,uptoathirdoftheEU'snaturalgasandoildemand.Insuch
situation,anyimmediateordevastatingmeasuresagainstthesecompanies
canhardlybeexpected.

Atthesametime,withsinkingoilprices,itwouldbedifficultto
arguethatthesanctionsdonotharmthestrategicperspectivesof
Russianenergycompaniesand,assuch,putadrasticpressureonthe
Russianeconomyasawhole-whichisstillverydependentonenergy
exports,althoughlessthanbefore.Moreimportantly,afterthe
sanctionswereconfirmedbytheUnitedStatesandtheEuropeanUnionat
theendof2015itbecameclearthatthispressureisheretostay.

Onlyafewmonthsago,severalRussianandforeigninsidersthoughtthat
withthefragileceasefiremoreorlessholdingineasternUkraine,and
withmanyEuropeancompaniesdiscontentedbyprofitlossduetothe
sanctions,therestrictivemeasureswouldbelessened-atleastbythe
EU.OnecanrecalltheParistalksinthe"NormandyFour"formatin
October,whichdefactoconfirmedthecontinuationoftheMinskprocess
into2016.Atthesametime,theleadershipofLuganskandDonetsk
People'sRepublicspostponedtheirelections,openingthepossibilityof
holdingthemwithintheUkrainianlegalspace.Thelatterwouldbea
stepinthedirectionofreconciliation.But,whenextendingand
expandingthescopeofsanctions,theEUandtheUnitedStatesdidnot
takeintoconsiderationtheimprovementandstabilizationofthe
situationinEasternUkraine.

Itshouldcomeasnosurprise:thepoliticalelitesinEuropeandthe
UnitedStateshaveattachedsomuchpoliticalsignificancetothe
sanctionsthatthesanctionshavebecomeirreversible,atleastwithout
asignificantmoveonthepartofRussia.Sincetherearenosignsthat
Moscowwill,forexample,reverseitsdecisiononCrimea,onecannot
expectanendtoWesternsanctionsagainstRussiaanytimesoon.

ThismeansthatfortheKremlin,thesanctionshavebecomeapermanent
factorindecisionmaking,andmakeotherdomesticandinternational
problemsmoresevere.ThoseincludethequestionofwhetherRussiahas
loyalallieswhocanhelp.Ithasbecomeobviousthat,ontheonehand,
evenRussia'sbusinesspartnersinEuropecannotassistitindealing
withthesanctions.Inthelastmonthsof2015,theworldsawhow
Germanywantedtohaveitbothways,attemptingtocontinueimplementing
NorthStream2whilekeepingthesanctionsinplace.Italy,deprivedof
naturalgasfromtheSouthStreamafterthecrisisinrelationsbetween
RussiaandtheWeststartedin2014,becamefrustratedbyGerman
actions,buttonoavail.

Ontheotherhand,itisnotclearhowmuchsupportMoscowwillreceive
fromBeijingonvariousissues.Certainly,ChinamightneedRussian
naturalgasandoil,buthowfarcanthiscooperationgo?Eveninterms
ofexpandingbuyersforRussianenergyresources,Moscowneedsto
diversifyitspartnersinAsia-ifChinabecomesthechiefclientinthe
regionandcooperationwiththeEuropeansdecreases,willBeijingbe
abletodictatethetermsofcooperationtoMoscow?

InRussiandomesticpolicy,Westernsanctionsalsoincreasedpressureon
theKremlintoactonmanyfronts.Foryears,businessmen,officialsand
expertshavebeendiscussingtheinvestmentsneededtomodernize
Russia'senergysector.Butwithhighoilpricestherewasnomajor
incitementtomodernize:whybotherwhenprofitsareeasyandhigh?Now,
notonlyhasthepriceofoilgonedown,butWesternsanctions,
includingthebanonenergy-relatedservices,equipmentand
technologies,arenotgoinganywhere.OnlyinNovember2014,after
Westernsanctionswereimposed,didtheRussiangovernmentapprovea
planofmeasurestodecreasetheRussianenergysector'sdependencyon
imports.Thiswasdoneafteryearsofdiscussionandabroadconsensus
thatthemeasureswerelongoverdue.Wouldhavetheybeenimplemented
withoutthepresenceofsanctions?AsofDecemberof2015,subsequent
measures,necessarytosupportthedomesticproductionofequipmentfor
offshoreproduction,werestillbeingdiscussed.TheUnitedStatesand
theEuropeanUnionmayexpandthelistofsanctionedservices,equipment
andtechnologiesanytime.ThereforeRussiancompanies,withthesupport
oftheirgovernment,shouldactfasttogetthenecessarytechnologies
(maybethroughcooperationwithAsiancompanies)andusethemtomodernize.

Furthermore,themajorityofsectorsthatRussianeedstodevelopand
growitseconomycanfallpreytoWesternsanctions.Aretheyreadyto
withstandthiskindofpressure?DoRussiancompaniesinthosesectors
haveenoughpartnersinAsia,incasetheyneedaccesstointernational
know-howorservicesiftheybecomethetargetofWesternsanctions?

Thereisabroaderquestion:HowmatureistheRussianeconomyto
weatherfurtherWesternreactionstoamoreassertiveKremlinforeign
policy?Inthetwenty-firstcentury,itisimpossibletobuildastrong
economyprovidingdecentlivingconditionsforone'spopulationwhilein
internationalisolation.ThisfactisunderstoodintheKremlin-duringa
meetingwithbusinessleadersonDecember24,PresidentPutinsaid:"To
expandthecapabilitiesofnationalbusinesseswealsointendtodevelop
economictieswithothercountriesandtakepartinintegration
processes."Butthistaskwillbefarmoredifficulttoachieveagainst
thepressureofWesternsanctions,whichdonotseemtobegoinganywhere.

Thecuriousstudentofhistoryandinternationalrelationsmaystill
wonderwhatistherealreasonforthesesanctions:disagreementsover
Ukraine,orWesternconcernsoveramoreassertiveRussianforeign
policyandtheprospectofRussiabecomingafull-scalepowercenterin
internationalrelations?Inreality,suchalternativereasoningdoesnot
exist:Russia'sexpectationofhavingitspositiononUkraine
acknowledgedbytheWestshowsthatamoreassertiveRussiaisalreadyhere.

AfterRussiaclaimeditsrighttoamoreassertiveforeignpolicy,its
economyhasfounditselfinafarmorechallenginginternational
environment.Sofar,ithasnotbeencompletelybroken,andRussian
societyseemsreadytoendureharshereconomicconditionsforthe
benefitofamoreambitiousforeignpolicycourse:atleast59percent
ofRussianssupportthecountry'sforeignpolicy.Butthisendurance
challengeissettocontinueatleastforthecomingyear.TheKremlin
hasnochoicebuttofurtherimplementthemeasuresnecessarytobuild
aneconomyadequateforacountryaspiringtobeatruepowercenterin
currentinternationalrelations.
[returntoContents<#n0>]

#9
RussiaDirect
www.russia-direct.org
January4,2015
WhattoexpectfromRussia'sSyriapolicyin2016
MoscowhasbeenrelyingonhardpowerinSyriaoverthelastthree
monthsandrisksfallingintoatrapofover-relianceonitnextyear.
Whilethisstrategyhasyieldedsomeresults,suchasengagingthe
U.S.-ledcoalitionintomoredecisivetalks,in2016thesameapproach
islikelytoproveitsinefficiency.
ByYuriBarmin
YuryBarminisastrategicriskconsultantbasedinMoscow.Heholdsan
MPhilDegreeinInternationalRelationsfromtheUniversityof
Cambridge.HisinterestsincludeRussianforeignpolicyandthepolitics
oftheGulf.FollowhimonTwitterat@yurybarmin.

VladimirPutin'sdecisiontointerveneinSyriainlateSeptemberwas
undoubtedlyoneofthemostimportanteventsinglobalpoliticsthis
year.InvolvementinaconflictoutsidetheformerSovietUnionmeans
thattheRussiaistakingashotatregionalleadership,ifnotat
contestingtheglobalroleoftheU.S.altogether.NowinSyria,there
isnogoingbackforMoscow.Whileitisnotentirelyclearforhowlong
Russiacansustainitsmilitarycampaignatthepresentlevel,itwill
needtoactaccordinglytoitsnewlystatedgeopoliticalambitions.

Upuntillate2015RussiawasverycautiousinitsSyriapolicy.It
openlysupportedSyrianPresidentBasharAssadbutwasreluctanttomake
moreassertivemovesfearingthatitwouldputRussiaatoddswithother
regionalpowers,suchasSaudiArabiaandTurkey.

Thesecondhalfof2015broughtaboutadramaticchangeinRussia's
visionofSyria.ThedeploymentofRussianwarplanestothecountryand
theirmilitaryinvolvementintheconflictputMoscowintheheartof
theconflict.ItisremarkablehowtherhetoricaboutRussianPresident
VladimirPutin'sattemptstotakepartinthesettlementofthecrisis
haschangedsincelate2014.

Ayearago,powerslikeSaudiArabiaandQatarwerevoicingtheiranger
overRussia'ssupportofAssadsayingthatMoscowhasnoroletoplayin
thiscrisis.NowthattheSyrianwarhasbecomeRussia'swar,theyhave
acceptedMoscowasalegitimatestakeholderintheconflict,albeiton
theothersideofthebarricades.

BycementingitsmilitarypresenceinSyriain2015Russiahas
essentiallyguaranteeditselftheleadingroleintheSyriancrisisin
2016.Thisisespeciallyimportantgiventhefactthattherearehopes
nowthatstartinginJanuary,theSyriangovernmentandtheopposition
maystartnegotiationsonaceasefire.

WhilepreviouslyRussia'sparticipationindiplomaticeffortstobring
theSyrianwartoanendweren'tbackedbyanyinfluenceontheground,
thistimethereishardpowerthatMoscowmayemployatanytime,
meaningthatitsbargainingpowerinSyriahasincreasedmarkedlyin2015.

TheU.S.-Russiaresolutionthatcallsforaceasefireandpolitical
talksinSyriaislargelyaresultofthemilitarybuild-upinthe
countrythatMoscowcarriedoutinautumn.TheSyriancrisisisfarfrom
overandRussiawillneedtouseallofitsdiplomaticcloutto
guaranteeAssad'spresidencyforthetransitionalperiod.Asofnow
thereisadegreeofcertaintythatMoscowmayinfactachievethisgoal
sincesomeWesternpowershavebecomemoreflexibleontheissueofAssad.

However,itiswrongtoarguethat,withtheresolutiononSyriahaving
beenunanimouslyadoptedattheUNSecurityCouncil,violenceinthe
countrywillsubside.Someoppositiongroupshavealreadyvoicedtheir
pessimismabouttheplanthatRussiaandtheUnitedStatehaveproposed,
whiletheIslamicStateofIraqandtheGreaterSyria(ISIS)andJabhat
Al-Nusrahavenointentiontostopfightinginthefirstplace.

Moscowitselfisnotentirelysurewhetheradiplomaticsettlementof
thecrisisispossible,whichiswhyafurthermilitarybuild-upin
Syriaisstillpossible.Putinhashintedatthiswhenherecentlysaid
thatRussiaisusingfarfromeverythingitiscapableofandthatit
couldresorttoothermilitarymeansinSyriaifneeded.

ThisisprobablyakeyelementofRussia'sstrategyinSyriafor2016:
Moscowhaspreparedavarietyoftoolstobeemployedifnecessarybut
willprefernottoexpanditsmilitaryactivityinSyria.Thisiseasy
toexplaingiventhefactthatmilitarygainsinSyriahavesofarbeen
limitedandthereisnoclearexitstrategy.

SomeoftheseexistingoptionsthatareavailabletoRussiainSyriabut
havenotbeenusedyetlikelyincludetwonewairbases.Whilethe
RussianDefenseMinistrydeniesthatitneedsnewfacilitiesinthe
country,somereportsaswellassatelliteimagessuggestthatRussia
hasbeenconductingconstructionworkatoldSyrianbasesandthatits
helicoptershavebeenspottedattwosuchfacilities.

ItishardtoimaginethescopetowhichRussia'smilitarypresencemay
expandinSyriaduetothefactthatRussiahasaccesstovirtuallyany
militaryfacilityunderthecontroloftheSyrianArabArmy.

IntheeventthattheUNresolutiononSyriasucceedsandaceasefire
commencesitisstilllikelythatRussiawillcontinueitsmilitary
build-upinthecountry.AceasefirebetweenAssadandtheopposition
willmeanthatthesideswillhavetoconcentrateonthefightagainst
ISIS,JabhatAlNusraandotherextremistgroupsasopposedtofighting
eachother.

Russiawillhavetotakeoneoftheleadingroleswithinawider
coalitionagainstterroriststobackitsallyAssadbutalsotostay
relevantinthisconflicttoexertmorepoweronthediplomaticfront.

PreciselybecauseofthefearoflosingexistinginfluenceinSyria,
MoscowwillnotchangeitspositiononAssadandhisroleinthe
country.WhileWesternpowersseektoconvinceRussiathattheSyrian
Presidentisthecauseofthewar,PutinbelievesthatAssadistheonly
forcethatmaystopjihadists.

ButMoscowknowsitalltoowellthattheactofabandoningAssadwill
beinterpretedintheWestasitsweaknessandastrategicloss.Even
worse,itwillmeantheinabilityofRussianmilitaryprowesstoyield
meaningfulresults,whichwouldcastshadowontheentirestrategy
behindPutin'sforeignpolicy.

Allinall,itseemsthatMoscowwillfinditselfinadifficult
positioninSyriain2016.Whilereluctanttodoso,Russiawillneedto
maintainitsmilitaryforceinthecountryandwilllikelyevenincrease
itinanattempttosecureaspotofakeyplayerintheMiddleEast.
ConsequentlyapulloutfromSyrialooksmoreandmoreunrealistic
becauseitwillleaveRussiawithoutitsmainleveragainsttheWestin
thisconflict.

MoscowhasbeenrelyingonhardpowerinSyriainthelastthreemonths
andrisksfallingintoatrapofover-relianceonitnextyear.While
thisstrategyhasyieldedsomeresults,suchasengagingtheU.S.-led
coalitionintomoredecisivetalks,in2016thesameapproachislikely
toproveitsinefficiencyonceitbecomesclearthatrealterritorial
gainsofAssadforcesaren'tcommensuratewithresourcesthatRussia
investedinthecampaign.

[returntoContents]<#n0>

#10
TheUnzReview
www.unz.com
January2,2016
WeekThirteenoftheRussianInterventioninSyria:DebunkingtheLies
ByTheSaker

Eversincethefirstrumorsbegantocirculateaboutanimpending
RussianmilitaryinterventioninSyriatheInternetandthemediahave
beenfloodedwithallsortsofsillyrumors,mythsandoutrightlies
aboutwhatcould/wouldhappen.Theserumors,mythsandoutrightliesare
stillbeingspreadtoday,andnotonlybypro-USinterestgroups,but
evenbysupposedlypro-Russian"analysts".Allthisnonsensecompletely
obfuscatestherealityoftheRussianinterventioninSyria(butmaybe
thatwasthegoalallalong?)andtriestopainttheRussianoperation
asafailure.AfterthreemonthsofRussianairandmissilestrikesin
Syria,itisagoodtimetoaskthequestionofwhethertheRussians
haveachievedsometangibleresultsorwhether,assomearesuggesting,
thishasbasicallybeenabigPRoperation.

Thekeyissuehereiswhatcriteriatousetomeasure"success".And
that,inturns,begsthequestionofwhattheRussianshadhopedto
achievewiththeirinterventioninthefirstplace.Itturnsoutthat
PutinclearlyandofficiallyspelledoutwhatthepurposeoftheRussian
interventionwas.OnOctober11th,hedeclaredthefollowinginan
interviewwithVladimirSolovievontheTVchannelRussia1:

Ourobjectiveistostabilizethelegitimateauthorityandcreate
conditionsforapoliticalcompromise

That'sit.HedidnotsaythatRussiawouldsingle-handedlychangethe
courseofthewar,muchlesssowinthewar.Andwhilesomesawthe
Russianinterventionasatotal"gamechanger"whichwouldmarktheend
ofDaesh,Ineverbelievedthat.HereiswhatIwroteexactlyoneday
beforePutinmadethestatementabove:

Makenomistakehere,theRussianforceinSyriaisasmallone,at
leastforthetimebeing,anditdoesnotevenremotelyresemblewhat
therumorshadpredicted(...)Thereisnowaythattheverylimited
Russianinterventioncanreallychangethetideofthewar,atleastnot
byitself.Yes,IdoinsistthattheRussianinterventionisavery
limitedone.12SU-24M,12SU-25SM,6SU-34and4SU-30SMarenotabig
force,notevenbackedbyhelicoptersandcruisemissiles.Yes,the
Russianforcehasbeenveryeffectivetorelievethepressureonthe
northwesternfrontandtoallowforaSyrianArmycounter-offensive,but
thatwillnot,byitself,endthewar.

Iwasharshlycriticizedatthattimefor"minimizing"thescopeand
potentialoftheRussianoperation,butIchosetoignorethese
criticismssinceIknewthattimewouldprovemeright.

Whathappenedthenwasatypicalexerciseinhyperbole:manyputatively
pro-Russiancommentatorstookturnswritingeuphoric"analyses"which
dayafterdayspikedthepublic'shopesonlytothenlatercomecrushing
downindisappointment.Predictably,themorethegapbetween
expectationsandrealityonthegroundgrew,themorethecritiques
PutinandAssadcouldgloatabouttheRussian"failuretowin".That
kindofpseudo-analysisisbuiltonatypical"strawman"fallacy:the
ridiculousnotionthattheRussianintendedtosingle-handedlydefeat
Daesh.Sadly,"pro-Russian"commentatorsgreatlycontributedtothe
constructionofthat"strawman"bytheir(andnottheRussian
military's)completelyunrealisticexpectationsandpredictions.

FollowingthesecondweekoftheRussianinterventioninSyriaIwrote:

TheRussianforceissmallandvulnerable.Ofcourse,oneoptionforthe
RussianswouldbetoexpandtheairfieldnearLatakia,butthatwould
taketimeandmoreresourcesandmyunderstandingisthattheywantto
consolidatetheircurrentairfieldfirst.However,asastop-gap
measure,theRussianscoulduseRussian-basedbombers.IfIranallows
Russiatoconductin-airrefuelinginIranianairspaceorifIranallows
RussiatouseIranianairbases,thenmanymoreSU-34/SU-35SMor
SU-34/SU-30SM"airforcepackages"couldbeengagedinSyria.Intheory,
RussiacouldevenprovideherTu-22M3todelivergravitybombs,her
Tu-95MStodelivercruisemissilesandherTu-160todelivereitherone
orboth.Idon'tthinkthatthereisanymilitarynecessitytousethese
strategicbombersrightnow,butitmightbeagoodideatodosofor
politicalreasons-justtoflexsomemore'militarymuscle'andshow
theNeoconsthatRussiaisnottobemessedwith.Submarinelaunched
cruisemissileswouldalsowork,especiallyiflaunchedbyaRussiansub
intheMediterraneanwhichtheUSNdidnotdetect.

Andthisisexactlywhathappenednext:Russiabegantouseher
strategicaviationtoaugmenthercapabilitiesandtoshowtheWestthat
theKremlinmeantbusiness.Ithenconcludedbysaying:

Sofar,theKremlinhasdoneasuperbPRjobexplainingthatDaeshisa
directthreattoRussiaandthatitwasbetterforRussiato"fightthem
overtherethanoverhere".Thislogic,however,ispredicatedonthe
ideathataverylimitedRussianinterventioncantipthebalance.There
isaveryfineconceptuallinebetweentippingthebalanceandfighting
someoneelse'swarandthatissomethingtheKremlinisacutelyaware
of.Hopefully,thislinewillneverbecrossed.

TobefairtotheKremlin,sayingthatitisbetterto"fightthemover
therethanoverhere"isinnowayapromisethetipanybalance.But
thereweremanyRussiancommentatorswhodidsaythattheRussian
interventionwould,indeed,tipthebalanceandtheKremlindidnot
directlyrefutetheseclaims.SoIsuggestthefollowinggoalsettingby
theKremlin:

Primaryobjective:stabilizethelegitimateauthorityandcreate
conditionsforapoliticalcompromise
Secondaryobjective:tipthebalanceofthewarinfavoroftheSyrian
armedforces.
Havingdiscardedthesillystrawmanargumentsandwehaveestablished
therealRussiangoalswecannowevaluatewhetherRussiahasbeen
successfulornot.

FollowingonlythreeweeksofRussianairandmissileoperations,Assad
cametoMoscowandthefirstmultilateralnegotiations,whichbrought
togethertheforeignministersofRussia,theUS,TurkeyandSaudi
Arabia,tookplaceinVienna.Allthecountrieswhichhadunleashed
theiraggressionagainstSyriaunderthe"Assadmustgo"slogannowhad
toacceptthatAssadwasnotgoinganywhere.Thiswasacomplete
diplomatictriumphforRussia.Thisfirsttriumphwasfollowedby
anotherseriesoftriumphsattheUNSC.Inthemeantime,ontheground
inSyria,theSyrianmilitary,forthefirsttimeinmonths,actually
beganaseriesofcounter-offensivewhichslowly,butsystematically,
begantopushbackDaeshinmostsectorsofthefront.Soifthe
criteriais"stabilizingthelegitimateauthorityandcreating
conditionsforapoliticalcompromise",thentheRussianoperationis
nothingshortofatotalvictory,atruediplomatictriumphachievedin
averyshorttime.Inlessthanonemonth,theRussianssucceededin
makingAssad'spresenceattheheadofalegitimategovernmentin
DamascusanindisputablerealitywhichallAssad-hatershadtoaccept,
andtheconditionsforapoliticalcompromisewerecreated,atleastin
diplomaticterms.

Nowlet'stakeacloserlookatwhathasactuallyhappenedinmilitary
terms.Butbeforewedothat,letmerepeatonceagainthattippingthe
militarybalancehasneverbeentheprimaryRussianobjective,onlya
secondaryonewhichcouldbeachieved,orsotheRussianshope,inthe
processofachievingthefirst,main,one.Toprovemypoint,Iwill
havetorepeatagainandagainsomethingIhavebeenmantrically
repeatingforthepastthreemonths:the"operational-tacticalgroupof
theRussianAirSpaceForce(RASF)inSyria"(thatisitsofficialname)
isroughlyequivalenttojustoneaviationregiment.Withoutgoinginto
manydetails,youneedtoknowthatRussianmilitarytheoryhas
developedaverystrictsetofnormswhichoutlineingreatdetailthe
kindofforcesneededtosuccessfullyexecuteanyspecifictask.Whatis
absolutelycleartoanybodywithevenabasicunderstandingofwarfare
and,especially,airoperations,isthatonesingleaviationregiment
cannotbeusedtodefeataforcewithwellover100,000combatants
deployedacrossaterritoryofroughly150,000km2(justinSyria)
supportedbyanetworkofbasesandtrainingcampsinTurkeyandother
countriesoftheregionandwhichgetsaquasiinfinitesupplyof
weapons,combatantsandmoneyfromnumerouswealthystatesponsors.Ask
anybodywithevenasuperficialknowledgeofRussianmilitarytheoryand
he/shewilltellyouthatthisisnotthekindoftaskangiventoan
aviationregiment.Thosewhosayotherwisesimplydon'tknowwhatthey
aretalkingabout.

Whatistrulyremarkableisthattherangeofmissionsaccomplishedby
thisaviationregimentequivalentsizeforcehasbeenonewhichnormally
havebeengiventoanaviationdivision(aforceroughly3to5times
larger).Letmerepeatthat:thisregimentalsizeforcehas,forthree
monthsnonstop,successfullyexecutedtheamountofairstrikesnormally
giventoaforce3to5timesbigger.NowIdon'tknowaboutyou,but
formethissureisthesignofafantasticallysuccessfuloperation.
Askanymilitarycommanderhowhewouldfeeliftheforcehecommands
couldaccomplishnotjustthefullsetoftasksitissupposedto
accomplish,but3to5timesmore,andthisinrealcombatoperation.I
assureyouthatthiscommanderwouldbeelated.Thefactthatsomeare
stillcapableofspeakingofaRussianmilitaryfailureisasignof
eitherdishonestyorignorance(orboth).

Somepseudo-analystshavetriedtojustifytheirnegativeevaluationof
theRussianoperationbycountingthepercentagechangeintheterritory
controlledbythegovernmentforcesasopposedtoDaeshanditsallies.
Again,thisisacaseofeitherdishonestyorprofessionalincompetence.
ThefactthatDaeshcontrolsroughly80%oftheSyrianterritoryis
meaninglessnonsense.Notonlybecausethis80%oflandonlyincludes
20%ofthepopulationofSyria,butbecausetheverynotionof"control"
meansnothinginthecontextofthiswar.

Whatisreallyhappeningisthis:mostofthecombatoperationare
centeredaroundmajorurbanareas(cities)andspecificlinesof
communications(roads).Intermsofsmalltownsortherestofthe
countryside,itisnotreally"controlled"byanybody.Typically,when
thegovernmentforcestakevillage"A",theDaeshforcesgoto"B"and
whenthegovernmenttakes"B",Daeshgoesbackto"A".(Thoseinterested
inthesetacticalissuesshouldreadthisinterviewofaRussian
militaryspecialistwithagreatdealofexperienceofSyriatranslated
bymyfriendTatzhitMihailovich).Thegovernmentforcesarealready
overstretchedandarebarelycapableofmountinganoffensivewithout
havingtomovetheirforcesallocatedtothedefenseofkeycities.This
isalsowhytheSyriancounter-offensivehasbeensoslow:adirelack
ofmanpower.

Furthermore,sincetherealfightingcentersaroundurbanareasandkey
axesofcommunications,theveryuseofpercentagesofterritoryare
meaninglessinmeasuringthesuccessoffailureoftheseoperations.
TaketheexampleofAleppo:if/whentheSyriansfinallyfullyliberate
thecityfromDaesh,whichwouldbeamajorsuccess,thepercentage
shiftincontrolledterritorywillbeabsolutelyinsignificant.Yetit
wouldbeamajorsuccessforthegovernmentforces.

Noneoftheabove,however,reallyanswersthequestionofwhetherthe
RussianmilitaryinterventioninSyriahastippedthebalanceinfavor
oftheSyriangovernmentornot.Somesaythatithas,othersdenythat.
Mystrictlypersonalopinionisthatno,ithasnotor,Ishouldsay,
notyet.Buttherearesomesignsthatitmightinthenearfuture.What
arethesesigns?

First,thepressureonTurkeytostopactinglikearogue-stateledby
anirresponsiblemegalomaniachasbeenincreasingeversincethedowning
oftheRussianSU-24andthesubsequentRussianrevelationsaboutthe
Turkishregimeand,specifically,theErdoganfamily'sinvolvementin
theillegalpurchaseofDaeshoil.Sofartheregimeisholdingfast,
butitisclearlyhurtingpoliticallyandthetensionsarenowflaring
upinsideandallaroundTurkey.WhileIdon'texpectErdogantocavein
toexternalpressures,IdothinkthatthetensionsinTurkeywillend
uphurtingDaesh,probablyinaminorwayunlesstheconflictwiththe
Kurdstrulyblowsup,atwhichpointDaeshwillbeaffectedinamuch
moresignificantmanner.

Second,therearesomesignsthatDaeshisrunningintomilitary
difficultiesinIraqandpoliticaldifficultiesintherestoftheArab
world.ThefactthattheSaudishavenowfelttheneedtocreatewhatis
basicallyaSunnianti-Shiaterroristforce(akaofficiallyas"Islamic
anti-terroristforce")isaclearsignthatDaeshisnotlivingupto
theirexpectations.

Third,theRussiansarenowprovidingheavyartillerysystemsand
trainingtotheSyrianswhoarenowslowlybutsurelyacquiringthekind
offirepowerwhichtheRussianshaveusedwithdevastatingeffectiveness
againsttheWahabisinChechnia.

Fourth,whiletheRussianairoperationsare,bydefinition,incapable
ofdefeatingawell-duginanddispersedguerrillaforce,itcanplacea
greatdealofstressonitslogisticsandsupplylines.Italsoseverely
restrictsthemobilityofDaeshforces,especiallybynight.

Fifth,withthedirectsupportoftheRASF,theSyrians,backedby
Hezbollah,havebegunretakingcontrolofsomesegmentsoftheSyrian
borderwithLebanonandTurkey.Thatis,bytheway,oneofthemost
difficultyetcrucialtasksforthegovernmentforces:totakeasmuch
oftheSyrianborderwithTurkeyundercontrol(theIranianswilldo
thatwiththeIraqiborder).Thishasnothappenedsofar,anditwill
nothappeninthenearfuture,buttheeventsaremovingintheright
direction.

Butwhatwillreallydecideoftheoutcomeofthiswarisnotfirepower
butlogistics.Currently,theSyriansareatahugedisadvantage:not
onlyaretheshortonammunitionand,especially,spares,buttheir
entirearmamentisoutdatedandwaypastitstheoreticalservicelife.
TheSyriangovernmentforceshavealsosufferedterriblelossesin
manpowerbuttheSyrianscannotaffordafullmobilizationasthiswould
greatlyhurtanalreadysufferingeconomy.KeepinmindthattheSyrians
havebeenfightingthiswarforlonger(4yearsand9months)thanthe
SovietUnionfoughtWWII(3yearsand10months).Thefactthatcracks
areshowingeverywherearenormal.Infact,theonlythingwhichthe
Syriansseemtohaveaninfinitesupplyofiscourage.

Daesh(andwhenIspeakofDaeshImeanallofthem,the"good
terrorists"andthe"badones")is,sofar,enjoyingaquasilimitless
supplyofcombatants,equipment,suppliesand,mostimportantly,money.
WiththefullbackingoftheUSA,SaudiArabia,Qatar,Turkey,Israel
andmanyEuropeancountries,thisishardlysurprising.Daeshalso
enjoysahugegeographicaladvantagebecauseitcanuseTurkey,Jordan
andIraqasarearbaseandsafeheaven.

Makenomistakehere,theSyriansaretheunderdoghereandthereis
nothingtheRussianscandotochangethat,atleastnotalone.Thekey
issuehereiswhatIraniscapableandwillingtodointhissituation.
IranhasalreadydonealotandIbelievethattheIranianswilldomore
butonlyifthereisnootherway.ItisnotthattheIranianslack
courageormeans,butthefactthattheyarealreadytakingahugerisk
inbeingsodeeplyinvolvedinthiswar.Iampersonallysurprisedby
thefactthattheUSA,especially,Israelhavenotalreadystartedto
denouncean"IranianinvasionofSyria",especiallysincetheUSAdid
nothaveanyqualmsaboutdenouncingatotallyfictional"Russian
invasion"oftheDonbass.ButifthenumberofIranianbootsonthe
groundgoesupthiskindofpropagandawillbeused(evenifthe
IraniansarelegallypresentattherequestofthelegitimateSyrian
government).

Sadly,theAngloZionistshavesucceededincreatedanimmenseandtruly
toxicmesswiththeirinterventionsintheMaghrebandtheMiddle-East.
JustasintheUkraine,thereisnosimplesolutiontostoptheconflict
andreturntopeace.IntheUkraine,theEmpireunleashedanauseousmix
ofNazisandJews,whiletheMiddle-Eastisnowthreatenedbyamassive
Takfiriinfestation.NeitherRussianorIranwilleverbeabletosolve
thisconflictby"winning"it.Thingshavegonewaytoofarandjustas
peacewillreturntotheUkraineonlyafterafull-denazification,peace
willonlyreturntotheMiddle-Eastafterafullde-Takfirizationofthe
region,includinginSaudiArabiaandQatar.Tothosewhowillaccuseme
ofbeingnaveabouttherealisticprospectsofriddingtheUkraineof
NazisandtheMiddle-EastofWahabis,Iwillreplywithafewsimpleand
basicquestions:doyoureallyandsincerelybelievethatpeacecanbe
madewithNazisandTakfiris?Doyouthinkthateithergroupwillsimple
"giveup"theirdelusionalinsanityandbecomea"normal"political
force?OrdoyoureallybelievethatonlyliberatingtheDonbassand
Syriaoftheseshaitansandleavethemincontroloftherestofthe
Ukraine/Middle-EastwillreallybringpeacetotheDonbassorSyria?

ThetruthisthatthewarintheUkrainewillonlyendwhenallofthe
Ukraineisliberated,justasthewarintheMiddle-Eastwillonlyend
whenalloftheMiddle-Eastisliberated.Youmightnotlikethisnotion
-Isuredon't-butrealityhasneverbeendependentonourlikesor
dislikes.Thiswillbealongwar.

[returntoContents]<#n0>

#11
TheNationalInterest
January3,2015
WhatRussiaSaidAboutNATOandWhyItMatters
ByThomasFedyszyn
homasFedyszynhasbeenaprofessorofnationalsecurityaffairsatthe
NavalWarCollegesinceretiringfromtheNavyin2000.Theviewsvoiced
herearehisalone.

NationalSecurityStrategies(NSS)ofgreatpowershavemanyaudiences.
VladimirPutin'slatesteffort,"AbouttheStrategyofNationalSecurity
oftheRussianFederation"wasissuedonNewYear'sEve2015.Heshould
hopethatthisforty-pagepublicationwillbereadbyhislocal
citizenrybecausetheinternationalaudiencewillneitherbesurprised
norenlightenedbyit.OfficialRussiansourcesarguethatPutinis
embarkingona"proactive"foreignpolicyinordertopreventRussia
frombeing"closedofffromtherestoftheworld."Infactthetough
toneofthedocumenthidesaverycleardefensivenessalongwiththe
suggestionthatRussiawillnotbeabletocompetewithitsnewly
labeledadversariesinthelong-term.Thisalonecouldleadtotrouble.

What'sNew

TheWesternpressishighlightingthatthisassessmentnamestheUnited
StatesanditsNATOalliesasRussia'sprincipalsecuritythreat,with
relationsreachinganewlowafterRussia'sannexationofCrimea.
However,thisthemeismerelyareiterationofRussia'sMilitary
Doctrine(December2014)andMaritimeDoctrine(July2015).Itdoesup
theanteofObama'sNSS(2015),whichlabelsRussiajustasanaggressor
inUkraineandCrimea,withouthonoringMoscowasaprincipalthreat.
NATO'smostrecentSummitDeclaration(Wales2014)alsofallsshortof
'threat'terminologybutdoes'condemn'RussianactionsinUkraineand
Crimea.

ThenewNSS'sdiscussionofthesituationinUkraineandotherso-called
'color'revolutionsisinstructiveintheRussianbeliefthatnotonly
aretheintelligenceservicesoftheUnitedStatesbehindthem,butthat
radicalsocial,nationalistandreligiousgroupsarebeingjoinedby
internationalNGOsandprivatecitizens.Shouldthissweepingand
comprehensiveallianceexistinanymembersoftheformerSovietUnion,
thereprobablyisgoodreasonforRussiatoexpectmanymoresuch
'color'revolutions.

Russia'sViewofNATO

RussianproofofNATOaggressionisthedevelopmentofitsRapid
ReactionForce(RRF)andthefactthatadditionalWesterntroopsare
beingstationedonthealliance'seasternborders.Thereisnomention
thatNATObolstereditsRRFindirectresponsetoRussianrevanchismin
CrimeaandUkraine,severalmonthsaftertheaggressionsoccurred.
FurtherthetroopbuildupinPolandandtheBalticsiscomposedof
rotational-notpermanently-stationed-forcesandtheirnumbersare
dwarfedbyRussiancounterpartsacrosstheborder.Clearlythedocument
authorsciting"NATO'smilitarybuildup"paidlittleattentiontothe
pitifulresponsemadebyNATOmembersofincreasingeachmember's
defenseexpenditurestoatleast2percentofGDP.Russiaismorethan
doublethispercentage.

ANuclearOption?

WhilethereislipserviceofferedtocurbingRussiannuclearpotential
intheNSS,thequalificationsthatfollowmakeitclearthatthisis
emptyverbiageandnofundamentalchangefromtheGerasimovDoctrine.
ThedocumentoffersthatRussiawillcontinuetomaintainitsnuclear
arsenalasadeterrentandwouldresorttothenuclearoption"onlyif
allothernon-militaryoptionsfailed."Ofcourse,Russiaretainsthe
prerogativetomakethisdetermination.

Russia'sEconomy

Perhapsitisintherealmofnon-militaryaffairsthatRussiawatchers
shouldpayparticularnotice.ThedocumentacknowledgesthatRussian
economicstabilityisindangerduetoits"lowlevelofeconomic
competitivenessanditsresource-dependenteconomy."Itnotesa"lagin
thedevelopmentofadvancedtechnologies,thevulnerabilityofthe
financialsystem...theeconomygoingoffshore...thestrengthof
theshadoweconomy."ItindirectlyacknowledgestheeffectofWestern
sanctionsbylabeling"ensuringRussia'sfoodindependence"astrategic
taskandcallingforincreasedgovernmentsupportforagriculture.Even
lookingthroughrose-coloredglasses,oneseesafalteringsystem
refusingtoentertheglobaleconomy-asystemthathaslost
attractivenesstooutsideinvestorsandcannotkeeppacewitheven
middlingcompetitors.

PerhapsonenewsworthyentryistheRussianassertionoftheexistencea
U.S.Military-BiologicalLaboratoryNetworklocatedinnationsbordering
Russia.Astoitsactualexistence,timewilltell.

TheRussianConstitutionrequiresthepublicationofanNSSeverysix
yearsandthisonewasjustslightlyoverdue,replacingtheMay2009
version.VladimirPutin'spronouncementsandearlierstrategicdocuments
preparedtheworldofmostofitscontentsandtheyshouldcomeasno
surprise.ItsveracityiscomparabletomostofRussianrecentofficial
announcements,butshouldn'tbegreetedonlywithsmirks.Afterall,it
isworrisomeifonlyPutinbelievesitscontents.

[returntoContents]<#n0>

#12
TheUnzReview
www.unz.com
January3,2016
CollapseofUkraine'sEconomyinFiveCharts
ByAnatolyKarlin
[Textwithchartshere
http://www.unz.com/akarlin/ukraine-economic-collapse/
]

Andmakenodoubtaboutit-acollapseisexactlywhatitis,andit
afflictswaymoreofthecountrythanjustthewar-wrackedDonbass.
UkrainenowvieswithMoldovaforthecountrywiththelowestaverage
wagesinEurope.

Gabonwithsnow?Saakashviliishopelesslyoptimistic.Thatwould
actuallybeabigimprovement!

GDPisat60%ofits1990Level

Asofthisyear,thecountrywiththemostpro-Westernrevolutionsis
alsothepoorestperformingpost-Sovieteconomybarnone.Thisisanot
unimpressiveachievementconsideringoutcomesherehavetendedto
disappointratherthanelate.Russiaitself,currentGDPatabout110%
ofits1990level,hasnothingtowritehomeabout(though"statist"
Belarus,defyingneoliberalconventionalwisdom,ataveryrespectable
200%doeshavesomethingtoboastabout).

Backin2010,althoughbyfartheworstperformingheavily
industrializedSovieteconomy,Ukrainewasstillperformingbetter
relativetoitspositionin1990thanMoldova,Tajikistan,andGeorgia.
Intheintervening5years-witha7%GDPdeclinein2014whichhas
widenedtoaprojected9%in2015-Ukrainehasmanagedtosliptorock
bottom.

Howdoesthislooklikeonamorehumanlevel?

HousingConstructionisSimilartoThatof5MillionPopulationRussian
Provinces

Withaquarterofitspopulation,Belarusisconstructingasmuchnew
accomodationasisUkraine.16millionstrongKazakhstanisbuilding
more.Russia-morethantentimesasmuch,eventhoughithaslessthan
fourtimesasmanypeople.

TheseasideRussianprovinceofKrasnodarKrai,whichhostedtheSochi
WinterOlympics,withits5millioninhabitants,isstillconstructing
morethanhalfasmuchhousingasallofUkraine.NowondertheCrimeans
weresoeagertoleave.

NewVehicleSalesCollapseto1960sLevels

TheUSSRmighthavefamouslyconcentratedongunsoverbutter,yeteven
so,evenintermsofanitemasinfamouslydifficulttoacquireascars
undersocialism,Ukrainianconsumerswerebetteroffduringthe
1970-1990periodthantoday.NowUkrainiansarebuyingasfewnewcars
astheyweredoinginthecatastrophic1990s,andfewereventhanduring
thedepthofthe2009recession.

AndevensomanyMaidanistscontinuetogiggleat"sovoks"and
"vatniks."Well,atleasttheynowmakeupforhavingevenlessbutter
thanbeforewiththeAzovets"innovativetank."Armatasarequakingin
fearlookingatthatthing.

DebttoGDPRatioatCriticalLevels

Andthisfigurewouldhaverisenfurthertoaround100%thisyear.

Notethat60%isusuallyconsideredtobethecriticaldangerzonefor
emergingmarketeconomies.Thisistheapproximatelevelatwhichboth
RussiaandArgentinafellintotheirrespectivesovereigndebtcrises.

Tobefair,theIMFhasindicateditwillbepartialtofloutingitsown
rulestokeepUkraineafloat,whichisnottoosurprisingsinceitis
ultimatelyatoolofWesterngeopoliticalinfluence.Andifasprojected
theUkrainianeconomybeginstorecoverthisyear,thenthereisafair
chancethatcrisiswillultimatelybeaverted.

Butitwillbeacloseshave,andsolongasthe"meetthenewboss,
sameastheoldboss"oligarchswhoruleUkrainecontinuesiphoningoff
moneybythebillionstotheiroffshoreaccountswithimpunity,nothing
canberuledout.

ResumptionofDemographicCollapse

Muchliketherestofthepost-SovietSlavicworld,Russiahada
disastrous1990sindemographicterms,whenmortalityratessoaredand
birthratesplummeted.ButlikeRussia-iftoalesserextent-ithas
sincestagedamodestrecovery,incidentallywiththehelpofa
Russian-style"maternalcapital"program.In2008,itreachedaplateau
inbirthrates,whichwasnotsignificantlyuninterruptedbythe2009
recession.
Sincethen,however,theyhaveplummeted-exactlyninemonthsafterthe
February2014coup.Thediscretenesswithwhichthishappenedtogether
withthefactthattherevoltintheDonbasstookafurthercoupleof
monthstogetgoingafterthecoupproperimpliesthatthisfertility
declinewaslikelyadirectreactiontotheMaidanandwhatitportended
forthefuture.

Thiscollapseisverynoticeableevenafteryoucompletelyremoveall
tracesofCrimea,Donetsk,andLuganskoblastswhichmightotherwise
muddythewaters(naturally,thedemographiccrisisinallitsaspects
hasbeenmuchworseintheregionthatborethebruntofMaidanist
chiliasticfervor).HerearetheUkrstatfiguresforbirthsanddeaths
inthefirsttenmonthsof2013,2014,and2015:

BirthsDeaths
2013350658441331
2014354622445236

2015329308450763
Furthermore,thisperiodhasseenahugewaveofemigration.Figurescan
onlybeguesstimated,butitissafetosaytheyarewelloveramillion
tobothRussiaandtheEU.

Theeffectsofthiswillcontinuetobefeltlongafteranysemblanceof
normalcyreturnstoUkraine.
[returntoContents]<#n0>

#13
Sputnik
January2,2016
Over400,000UkrainiansReadytoIntegrateIntoRussianSociety

MOSCOW(Sputnik)-Morethan1.3milliondisplacedUkrainianshave
contactedFMSsincethestartofthearmedconflictinsoutheastern
UkraineinApril2014.Over419,000havefiledasylumclaims,according
totheagency.

"RussiahasdoneeverythinginitspowertotakeinUkrainiancitizens
whohavebeenforcedtofleeUkraine.Over400,000peopleare
potentiallyreadytointegrateintotheRussiansociety,"themigration
agencysaid.

FMSestimatesthatatotalof2.6millionUkrainiansarecurrently
livinginRussia,1.1millionofthemfromthewar-hitsoutheasternregions.

AccordingtotheUNRefugeeAgency,Russiaistheworld'ssecondbiggest
recipientofasylumclaimsafterGermany.
[returntoContents]<#n0>

#14
www.rt.com
January4,2015
CrimeansvotetogiveupelectricitycontractwithUkraineevenifit
meansmorepowercut-offs

AsurveyorderedbyVladimirPutinshowsCrimearesidentswouldrather
breakanelectricitycontractwithKiev,thansignonecallingthe
peninsulapartofUkraine-evenifitmeansfurtherblackoutsthat
beganwhenapylonbearingpowerlineswasblownup.

Over93percentofrespondentsvotedagainstsigninganewelectricity
supplycontractwithUkraineinthepollconductedbytheAll-Russian
PublicOpinionResearchCenter(VTsIOM)asthecurrentcontractexpired.
Theresultswereannouncedbythecenter'shead,ValeryFyodorov,onFriday.

ThewordingofthecontractsuggestedbyKiev,whichdescribesthe
peninsulaaspartofUkraine,wastheapparentreasonforthenegative
vote.CrimeavotedtowithdrawfromUkraineinMarch2014.

Inaddition,94percentsaidtheywerereadytoputupwithminor
disruptionsinelectricitywhileRussiaisworkingtoprovide100
percentpowersupplytoCrimeainthefollowingmonths.Beforethe
secessionandpowercutsthatfollowed,Ukrainehadsuppliedalmost
threequartersofCrimea'selectricity.

"Sixandahalfpercenthavevotedforthecontract,while92.6percent
didn'tsupportsigningthecontractthatsaysCrimeaandthecityof
SevastopolarepartsofUkraine,"Fyodorovsaid.

About2,500peopleinCrimeaand500inSevastopolparticipatedinthe
poll,meaningthestatisticalmarginforerrordoesn'texceed4.5
percent,accordingtoFyodorov.

Respondentshadtoanswertwoquestions.ThefirstwaswhetherCrimeans
supportedsigningacontractthatdescribesCrimeaandSevastopolas
integralpartsofUkraine.Iftheanswertothefirstquestionwas"no,"
thenthesecondquestionaskedwhetherCrimeanswerereadytosuffer
electricityshortagesinthefollowingthreetofourmonths.

IfUkrainedoesn'tchangethewordinginquestion,Russiaismostlikely
toabandonthecontract,DmitryPeskov,theRussianpresident'spress
secretary,said,uponlearningoftheoutcomeofthepoll.Putinhas
alreadybeeninformedoftheresultsofthesurvey,headded.

ThevotewasorderedbyPresidentPutin,whowantedtoknowiflocals
approvedoftherenewalofthecontractwiththeUkrainianUkrenergo
company.

Theorderfollowedyetanotherpowerlinedisruptionthatoccurredon
December30whenanelectricitypylonwasblownup.Ukrainian
ultranationalistsfromtheRightSectorgrouphadalreadydamageda
pyloninNovember,andthenpreventedrescueteamsfromrepairingit.
Sincethatactofsabotage,Crimeahasbeensufferingfromconstant
blackouts,promptingRussiatoboostitsownpowersuppliestothe
republicandflyinemergencygenerators.
[returntoContents]<#n0>

#15
Forbes.com
January2,2016
RussiaGivesUkraineABreakOnFuelCosts,ButPricesLikelyGoing
LowerAnyway
ByKennethRapoza

RussiasaidFridaythatitwasgivingUkrainea"discount"onnatural
gasprices,butfurtherdeclinesinenergypriceswilllikelymakethe
$17.8savingsamootpointanyway.BonusfortryingtobenicetoKyiv,
though,Gazprom.

Russia'smainsuppliertoUkraine,Gazprom,willcharge$230per1,000
cubicmetersofnaturalgasforfirstquarterdeliveries.Thepriceis
lockedinandwassignedbydecreebyPrimeMinisterDmitryMedvedevon
NewYear'sEve.RussiaandUkrainehavebeenlockinghornsongasprices
allyear.Europeanmoderatorshavebeenforcedtomediatethedispute,
whichhasoftenledGazpromtostopdeliveriesofgastoUkraine.

Thelowerpriceismostlyreflectedbyfallingnaturalgasfuturesin
themarketandnotMoscowsubsidies,asintheoldendayswhenthetwo
countrieswereonspeakingterms.Ukrainewilllikelyenduppayinga
bitmorethanmarketratebecauseenergypricesareseeingfallingto
thelow$30sinthefirsthalfofnextyearanyway.Loweroilprices
tendtotranslateintolowernaturalgaspricesaswell.

BPCEOBobDudleysaidinaBBCinterviewthisweekendthatoilfutures
willhittheir"lowpoint"inthefirstquarterof2016before
stabilizingbytheendoftheyear."Pricesaregoingtostaylowerfor
longer,wehavesaiditandIthinkweareinthisforacoupleof
years.Forsure,thereisaboom-and-bustcyclehere,"Dudleysaid.Oil
pricesfell34%in2015duetoprolongedglobaloversupplyand
lacklusterdemandfromChina.
Februaryoilfuturesare$37,havingfalleninDecembertotheirlowest
pointsincetheGreatRecession.TheRussianrublecontinuestotrack
oil.Thecurrencyweakenedto73tothedollar,itslowestlevelever.

Meanwhile,UkrainecontinuestodealwiththeRussiansinEastUkraine.
CrimeaisessentiallyfullysanctionedbytheU.S.government,and
UkraineisforcedwithpayingtheRussians-thebaneoftheirexistence
nowadays-some$3billioninoverduedebts.

Naftogazsaidlastweekthatit'sbeengettingalotofitsgasandoil
suppliesfromEurope,buttheoriginofthatfuelislikelytobeRussian.
[returntoContents]<#n0>

#16
www.thedailybeast.com
January4,2016
Khodorkovsky:FromRussianMulti-Billionaireto'Murderer'?
Putinjusthatesthisguy.Jailedformorethanadecade,thenforced
intoexile,theformerheadofYukosoilisnowchargedwithmurder.
ByAnnaNemtsova

MOSCOW-AlothasbeenhappeningtoformeroiltycoonMikhail
KhodorkovskyinRussiasinceheleftthatcountry.The52-year-old
oppositionleader,whonowlivesinexileinEurope,isonceagain
wantedbytheRussiancourts-andthistimeKhodorkovskyisaccusedof
murder.

Theonce-powerfulowneroftheYukosoilcompanyhasalreadyspentover
10yearsinRussianprisonsforallegedfraud,andclearlyhasno
intentionofgoingbacktobelockedupagain.ButdaysbeforeChristmas
theRussianInvestigativeCommitteeissuedaninternationalwarrantfor
hisarrestandthecourtinMoscowendorsedit.

TheallegedcrimeinvolvesthemurderofamayorinSiberiabackin
1998,andgivenhowlongKhodorkovskywasinprisonwithoutthese
chargesbeingbroughtagainsthim,onemightassumetherealcrime,in
theviewofRussianPresidentVladimirPutin,wasrathermorerecent.

Afewdaysbeforethedecision,Khodorkovskyspokeatapressconference
inLondon:"ArevolutioninRussiaisinevitable,"theformeroiltycoon
said.

ManyinMoscowwere,shallwesay,irritated?AndnotonlyPutin's
partisans.Evenifpeoplewouldlikelessofaheavyhandfromthe
Kremlinandmorefreedomtoexpressthemselves,they'rehopingfor
modernityandstability,notupheaval.

InthewakeofKhodorkovsky'sremarks,pressureonhissupporters
increasedbothinMoscowandSt.Petersburg.Severaldozenpolicemen
searchedforcriminalevidencearoundapartments,officesandevena
privatevehiclethatbelongedtoemployeesofOpenRussia,acommunity
ofactivistssupportedandfinancedbyKhodorkovsky.Themovement's
website,openrussia.org,haspostedinvestigativereportsandopinion
piecesexposinghumanrightsviolationsandlarge-scalecorruptionamong
topofficialsinRussia.

WhydidtheKremlingoafterKhodorkovskymorethantwoyearsafter
Putinpardonedhim?It'snotjustthepressconference,certainly.

TohearKhodorkovskytellthestory,Putin'safraidofhim."Putinsees
measathreat,economically,becauseofthepossibleseizureofRussian
assetsabroad,"Khodorkovskytoldthepress.TheKremlindeniedthat
Putinhadanythingtodowiththenewarrestwarrant.

ADumadeputy,DmitryGudkov,suggestedjusthowbigthemonetary
questionmightbe:"Authoritiesdonotwanttopayover$50billion
compensationtoYukos."

In2014,atribunalintheHagueruledtheRussianstatehadforced
bankruptcyonYukos,thebiggestprivateoilcompanyinthecountry,in
ordertoappropriateitsassetsandpreventKhodorkovskyfromentering
politics.

Thecourtimposed$50billionindamages,whichwasroughly2.5percent
ofRussia'sGDPatatimeitwasalreadyinrecession.

Sincethen,theDumahasbeenworkingtochangelegislationtohelp
avoidinternationalcourtdecisions,butbyputtingKhodorkovskyon
trialformurder,eveninhisabsentia,authoritiesshiftthefocusfrom
themtohim.

TohearKhodorkovskytellthestory,Putin'safraidofhim.
"TheyarepreparingtheworldforRussia'sdecisionnottopaythe
money,"GudkovtoldTheDailyBeastinarecentinterview.

ForKhodorkovsky,theexile'slifeinFrance,theU.K.,orin
SwitzerlandwasneverthesameasinMoscow,wherehehadateamof
youngactivistsworkingforhim.Hisformerpartner,andheadofthe
Yukos-Moscowmanagementcompany,AlekseiKondaurovtoldTheDailyBeast
thatthisthirdtrialagainstKhodorkovskyisMoscow'srevengefor
severalbigYukosvictoriesininternationalcourts,includingthe
StrasbourgCourtofHumanRightsaswellasTheHague.

"ThisisalsoarevengeforKhodorkovskyandhisOpenRussiasupporting
oppositioncandidatesatelections,"Kondaurovsaid.Lastweek,
KhodorkovskytoldBBCthathewasthinkingaboutaskingtheU.K.forasylum.

MeanwhileinMoscow,theoldpatternsfromSovietdissidentdaysdecades
agoarecomingback.FriendsintheOpenRussiacommunitycalledeach
otheronthephonewithaquestion:"Didtheycometoyou?"

ZoyaSvetova,ajournalistandhumanrightsdefenderatOpenRussia,
rememberedthearrestsofherdissidentparentsinthe1980s:"Whenthe
KGBcametoarrestmyfather,myhusbandhelpedtoburnsomefamily
papersnow,mycolleaguesdeletedocumentsfromtheircomputers.We
exchangeamemo,aninstructionforwhattodo,whentheycome:donot
openthedoor,immediatelycallyourlawyer,"SvetovatoldTheDailyBeast.

ManyRussianslookonKhodorkovskyfavorably-atleast33percentofthe
populationapprovedofhisreleasefromprisonin2013.Butseeingwhat
pressuretheoppositionmovementhassuffered,notmanyhavebeen
willingtojoin.

Lastyearonly2percentofRussianssaidtheywouldvotefor
Khodorkovskyinthenextpresidentialelections.

"Theideaistodiscredithimwiththemurdertrial,soRussian
politicianswouldnottakehismoney,peoplewouldbeafraidofworking
withhim,"KondaurovtoldTheDailyBeast.

Ofcourse,suchpressureisnothingnewfortheformertycoon.Vera
Chelysheva,theauthorofPrisoner#1,abookaboutKhodorkovsky,has
beencoveringhistrialsformanyyears."Icannotseehowthe
unbreakableKhodorkovskyIknowcouldbestoppedbymorefalsified
accusations,bymorepressure,afterwhathehassufferedthrough,"said
Chelysheva."Heisafreespirit,hewillnotstophisstruggle."
[returntoContents]<#n0>

#17
TheKremlinStooge
http://marknesop.wordpress.com
January3,2016
TheUnbearableUnseemlinessofPartnership
ByMarkChapman

Well,sometimesthefasteritgets
Thelessyouneedtoknow...

TheTragicallyHip,from"BlowatHighDough"
JimHoagland,atTheWashingtonPost,isupset.Notfurious,oranything
-itwouldneverdotogetangryatsuchasolid,reliableand
inspirationalallyasGermany.No,it'smore....miffed.Thekindof
vaguedisquietyoufeelwhenagoodfriendsuddenlyrevealsasideof
themselvesyoudidn'tknowexisted.It'skindoflikeGermanygotsloppy
drunkataninternationalpartyandthrewuponthecarpet,orinthe
punchbowl.Thekindofembarrassingperformancethatwillprobablyfade
withtime,butgoodfriendsshouldstepinimmediatelyandsetGermany
straight,incasethere'sadeeperproblemthatforeshadows,say,a
precipitousdescentintoalcoholism.That'skindofhowMr.Hoagland
viewsGermany'sunseemlyinsistencethatgoingintobusinessona
pipelinedealwithRussiaisjustastraightcommercialarrangement
(thanksforthetip,Warren).

PardonmewhileIseguesharplyawayfromthissubjectforjusta
moment,butIpromiseallwillbemadeclear.Inthesidebartothe
referencedarticle,fromtheverysamenewspaper,isapieceentitled,
"It'sTimetoCurbthisWidely-CommittedJournalisticSin".Thesin
referredtoisthecontemptinjournalismfortherequirementthat
disputableassertionsbebackedbyreasonedargumentorreferencetoa
reputablesource.Useofthepassivevoice,suchas"itiswidely
believed"isnotgoodenoughonitsownandisoftenacoverfor
somethingtheauthorwoulddevoutlylovetobetrue,butcannotproveis
true.Curiously,theauthorgoesontoassert,intheverynext
paragraph,thatastatementsuchas"itiswidelybelievedthatMH17was
shotdownbyasurface-to-airmissilefiredbyRussian-backed
separatists"isanexampleofareasonablestatement...becausealmost
everyonebelievesit.Theauthordoesnottouchuponthiswidely-held
beliefbeingthedirectresultofamassivecampaignofdeliberate
disinformation,andaninvestigationinwhichamajorsuspectwas
allowedunrestrictedaccesstoalloftheevidenceandaseatonthe
investigation.Butwecanonlydosomuchinonepost,andwesimply
can'ttakethatoneonrightnow.

Anyway,whereIwantedtogowiththatistoappointyouallmembersof
asortofjurypanel.We'regoingtolookatMr.Hoagland'spiece,andI
wantyoutowatchforexamplesofoccasionsinwhichMr.Hoaglandmakes
adisputableassertionthatisnotbackedupbyfacts-justan"ask
anyone"kindofsubstantiation.Ready?Let'sgo.

Ohjustabitofstage-settingfirst-Mr.Hoaglandispartofa
growinglobbygroupwhichisputtingpressureonGermanytobackoutof
itsdealwithRussia'sGazpromandothershareholderstotwintheNord
Streamgaspipeline,whichwoulddoubletheavailablesupplyofRussian
gastoGermany,makingGermanyasignificantlymore-importantgashub
forEurope.ItwouldalsoresultinRussiasendingonlydomesticsupply
throughUkraine'spipelinenetwork,forUkrainians'usesolongasthey
payinadvance,andnotsubjecttotransitfees.Everyarticleonthe
subjectmentionsthatUkrainereaps$2BillionannuallyfromRussiafor
transitfeesforbasicallydoingnothingexceptlettingRussiauseits
pipes,andWashingtonandBrusselsarebecomingincreasinglyworried
thatthispaymentmightbelosttotheUkrainianeconomy.Thisisatthe
heartoftheirobjectionstothenewpipelinecapabilityandthedeal
withGermany.TheAnglosphereknowsitisuselesstoappealtoGazprom,
andsoisconcentratingafull-courtpressonGermany.

Whileit'struethatGermanyhasearnedtheworld'srespectforits
overallperformancesinceWorldWarII,I'mgoingtodrawthelineat
"repeatedlytakingthemoralandpoliticalhighground".Isthatso?Was
theSiemensscandal,inwhichthecompany-whichwasGermanlasttimeI
looked-paid2.5billioninfinesforbriberyagoodexampleofthe
moralhighground?HowaboutDeutscheBank's840,000fineplus1.5
millionincompensationforfunnelingmortgageloansexclusivelythrough
mortgagebrokerstopeoplewithpoorcredithistory,andthenwiping
themoutwithmade-upfeeswhentheyfellintoarrears?I'msureeven
thoseofuswiththeshortestmemoriescanrecallVolkswagen's
deliberateinstallationoftest-cheatingsoftwareinover11million
carswhichwouldsensewhenatestwasbeingconductedandsupplybogus
emissionfigureswhichmadeitcompliantwithregulations,butotherwise
wouldallowtheenginetoemitasmuchas40timestheallowable
pollutants-whichhavebeenlinkedtorespiratoryillnessessuchas
bronchitisandemphysema-intheinterestsofachievingbettermileage.
Prettyhardtoseethatasanexampleofthemoralhighground,what?
NobodyisdumpingontheGermans,andeverycountryhasanelementwhich
ismoreinterestedinmakingmoneythanjustaboutanythingelseyoucan
name,butGermanynomorefitsthemoldofgildedsaintthananyoneelse.

SowhyisGermany'riskingitshard-earnedreputation'?Asanaside,
thatiskindofcomicalcomingfromthecountrywhichsystematically
blewthebasementoutofitsinternationalreputationinthepast5
yearswithitsdeliberateandopeninstigationofrebellionsin
countriesaroundtheworldasanexcusetosendinthewesternmilitary
tosackandruinthosecountries-UkraineandSyriaareonlythemost
recentexamples.Butlet'sleavethatforthemoment.Theimplication-
hell,it'sspelledout-isthatifGermanypersistswiththisdeal,it
willsacrificeitsinternationalreputationfordecency.That'snoteven
closetotrue,anditislaughableforHoaglandtosuggesttherestof
EuropeisgoingtolookdownitsnoseatGermanywhenitisGermanywho
underpinstheEuropeanCentralBank,whichbailsoutEuropean
spendthriftsandidiotswhocannotmanagetheirownmoney.Packyer
bagswe'regoin'onaguilttrip!No,we'renot.Don'teventhinkabout
it.Yes,Washingtonwillbepissedofftoseeitsowneffortstocontrol
theEuropeangasdistributionnetworkcometonaught,butisthat
somethingthatshouldkeepGermanyawakenights?Where'sthe
substantiationforhisstatementthat"thevastchangesintheglobal
energymarketsofthepastyearhavemadetheRussiandealobsolete,as
wellasdamagingtoEuropeanunity"?UkraineisnotpartoftheEuropean
Union,anditisUkrainewhichissquallingloudandlongforEuropeto
helpitbecauseRussiaisabouttotakeitoutofthegas-transit
business.Howisthe'Russian'deal(thepipelineisactuallyownedby
fivemajorinternationalshareholders,ofwhichGazpromisone,and
GazpromitselfisownedbytheRussianstatejusttoasufficientdegree
toconstituteamajority,50.002%)'obsolete'?IsEuropenowina
positiontodowithoutRussiangas?Itcertainlyisnot.Whatare
Hoagland'sgroundsforsaying"thepipelinedealwithVladimirPutinis
seeminglycorrupt"?WhatisPutin'sinvolvementinthepipeline?Zero.
Whatmakesit"seeminglycorrupt"?Askanyone.Everybodyknowsitis.
Lastly,whyshouldtheUnitedStatesgovernmentgetinvolved-atthe
Presidentiallevel,noless-inabusinessdealbetweenGermanyand
Russiatowhichitisitselfnotaparty?Letmeaskyouthis,Mr.
Hoagland-isthereanything,anythinginthewideworldthattheUnited
Statesconsidersnotitsbusiness?

WehaveaprettygoodideawhyWashingtonobjectstoanewpipelinedeal
whichwillbringgastoEurope,andnotevenmoreofit(twinningNord
StreamwillreplaceUkraine'stransit,notaugmentit),whichisthe
wholepoint-WashingtonandBrusselswantRussiatobeonthehookfor
subsidizingUkrainetothegreatestdegreepossible,becauseevery
dollarthatdoesn'tcomefromRussiahastocomefromtheIMForother
westerndonors.Similarly,forsolongasUkraineisRussia'sbuffer
transferzonebetweenitanditsEuropeangasmarkets,Russiahasto
caretosomeextentforUkraine'swell-being.Itcan'tletUkrainefail.
WhereasifUkraineisnolongernecessarytoRussia'sgasoperations,it
istotallyawesternresponsibilitytohealtheshatteredcountrywhose
civilwarthewestcheeredsoenthusiastically,andnoskinoffRussia's
noseifitcollapsesintocompleteruin.Alsojustbythebye,the
UnitedStatesgovernmentstillnurturesadreamwherebyitwillitself
becomeamajorsuppliertoEuropeofgasthroughLNGtankersand
terminals.I'mnotgoingtogointodetailagainonwhatastupididea
thatis,Ididsoheremorethanayearago.ForcingRussiatocontinue
supplyinggastoEuropethroughUkraineforcesRussiatotakean
interestandanactivehandinstabilizingandrebuildingUkraine,
althoughEuropemeanstokeepitforeverwithinitsownsphereofinfluence.

Anyway,let'sgetbacktoMr.HoaglandatTheWashingtonPost,before
thisturnsintoabook.Herewegoagain,with"Putin'sobjective".Is
thereanydetailabouttheconductofbusinessinRussiathatMr.Putin
doesnotrunpersonally?Granted,producingfar,farlessofthe
resourceyoudependontoheatandlightyourhomes,poweryour
industriesandathousandotherthingsmeansthatyouaregoingtohave
tocometotermswithwhoeverhasitforsale,andinEurope'scaseit
boilsdowntoeitherRussiaorthecreakingFrankenstein'smonsterthe
UnitedStatesistryingtocobbletogether,whichisacombinationof
ocean-transitLNGbytankerandapipelinefromdevotedtoadyallyQatar
throughSyriatoTurkey,whichthecurrentstubbornclingingtotheseat
towhichhewaselectedbyMr.Assadmakesmoot.

Andatthispoint,myfriends,Mr.Hoaglandsteppedofftheedgeof
reason.Indulgeme,forasecond.Journalistsregularlyconsultexperts,
itgivestheircopyauthenticity.Itseemsreasonabletheymusthave
lists,indescendingorderofreliability.Inthecaseofeconomists,
thefirstpageshouldbeheaded,"ReliableEconomists".AndersAslund
willnotbefoundonthislist.Page2couldbeheaded"LessReliable
Economists".AndersAslundwillnotbefoundonthislist.Thethird
pagecouldbetitled,"IdiotsWhoCanBarelyAdd,ButWhoAre
NonethelessConvincedThatTheyAreSmart".AndersAslundwillnotbe
foundonthislist.Thelastpagecouldbeheaded,"DisturbedWhiny
AttentionWhoresWhoAreToEconomicsWhatTheReverendJimJonesWasTo
OrganizedReligion".AndersAslundisonthislist.Morecorrectly,
AndersAslundisthislist.WhoistheeconomistMr.Hoaglandrelied
upontounderpinhiscase?Irestmine-AndersAslund.

AndersAslundtellsMr.HoaglandthattheNordStreampipelinedoesnot
makeeconomicsense.Whynot?Well,because"Consumptionofnaturalgas
intheEuropeanUnionhasfallenby21percentoverthepastdecade,and
theexistingGazprompipelineundertheBalticSeaisnowoperatingat
halfcapacity.AndGazpromisnoordinarystatecorporation.Itpursues
Russia'sgeopoliticalgoals,cuttingsuppliesorraisingpriceswhenthe
Kremlinwants."

IsometimeswishIwereKingHenry,sothatallIhadtodowasshout
"Whowillridmeofthistroublesomeeconomist???",andsomeknights
wouldrideofftoGeorgetownUniversityandhackoffhisheadwitha
sword(althoughinlightofitsdensewoodencomposition,abowsaw
mightbemorepractical).Thenhischowderheadedfoolishnesswouldbe
stilledforever.ItseemsthatthebiggeracoruscatingDayGloneon
megawattidiotyouare,themoreanxiousjournalistsaretodrawupon
andbroadcastyourelitistramblings,orperhapsheistheonlyonewho
willdoitforfree.

Yes,Anders,youbrightspark,you-EUconsumptionofnaturalgas
overalldecreasedin2014,by10.7%.DoesthatmeantheEUisimporting
lessgas?Well,no,actually,youeffinghammerhead,itdoesnot-in
fact,overthesameperiod,relianceonimportedgasincreased2.8%.How
canthosetworealitiescoexist?Why,becauseEUdomesticproduction
fellby10.6%in2014.Thedeclineinsomecountrieswasabruptand
dizzyinginFranceitdroppedby96.1%,inSpainthedeclinewas58.2%,
inBulgariaby35.3%,adropof18.7%inTheNetherlandsand14.3%in
Germany.OnlytheCzechRepublicandRomaniaincreasedproduction.The
'energyboom'inNorway-amajorproducerofEUsupplies-passedits
peakin2009andisinrapiddecline.EUoverallconsumptionmayhave
declined,butnotasrapidlyasdomesticproduction,whichmeanstheEU
ismorereliantonimportedenergythanever.Youcanrearrange
pipelinesanddeludeyourselfasmuchasyoulike,butyouwillnot
changethatfact.Ofcourse,itdoesn'timpactyourpontificatingone
bit,becauseyoudon'tseeit.Aslund,lestweforget,istheauthorof
"HowUkraineBecameaMarketEconomyandDemocracy".Hasbeensince
2009,apparently.Let'sskipoverafewhighlights,shallwe?"Ukraine
istodayanundisputedindependentstate.Itisademocracyandhas
transformedintoamarketeconomywithpredominantprivateownership."
I'llsay-70%ofitsGDPiscontrolledbyitsoligarchs."Ukraine's
postcommunisttransitionhasbeenoneofthemostprotractedand
sociallycostly,butithastakenthecountrytoadesirable
destination."Idon'tquiteknowwhattosaytothat.Notwithout
resortingtotheworstkindofprofanity.Infact,Aslund'svisionis
quiteabitlikeahypotheticalsituationinwhichthewestcaptureda
formerhardcorefascistcountry,didn'tchangeaGod-damnedthingexcept
theleader,andthenassuredthecitizenrythatitsformerpractices
wereactuallysignsofdemocraticprogressiveness.Abigfeature-in
termsofpublicationbyUkraine,notnumbersofattendees-ofthe
HolidaySeasoninUkrainethisyearwastorchlightparadescelebrating
thebirthdayofNazicollaboratorStepanBandera.Howmanyother
Europeanmarketdemocraciesheldsimilarcelebrations?Theideathat
Ukraineisclosertodaytoadesirabledestinationthanitwasin2009
stupefiescomment.

WhyisNordStreamoperatingathalfcapacity?AndersAslundandseveral
ofhisfellowdunderheadswouldhaveyoubelieveitisbecauseofa
decliningappetiteforRussiangas,andtheysayasmuch.Iguessthat
wouldbereflectedbyadeclineinGazprom'sexportstoEurope.Uh,oh-
Iseeaproblem.Gazprom'sexportstoEuropein2012were149.9BCm.In
2013theywere172.6BCm.Thatwasthehighestovera9-yearperiod-
almostthedecadethatAslunddescribes,inwhichtheEUisallegedly
consuminglessgas.Anditis:justnotlessRussiangas,andthe
relianceonthefigurewhichshowsdecliningconsumptionisaclassic
bait-and-switch.TheEUisusinglessgasbecauseithaslessgas.You
canalsoseewhytheUKisamongthecountriesattractinghysterical
westernpushbackforstonewallingontheNordStreamdealexportsby
GazpromtotheUKwentfrom3.8BCmin2005to16.6BCmin2013.

In2014,PutinaddressedalettertotheheadsofEurope,inwhichhe
highlightedthegrowingunreliabilityofUkraineasatransitcountry-
thisshouldhavebeenseenasadirectwarningthatRussiaintendedto
eliminatefurtherriskoftransitthroughUkraine,asGazpromhas
indicatedonpreviousoccasions.About50%ofRussia'sgasexportsto
EuropeasawholegothroughUkraine.WhenUkraineistakenoutofthe
equation,notonlywillNordStreamneedeverycubiccentimeterof
capacity,itwillneedmorethanthecurrentpipelinecanhandle.And
thenthereistheabsurdEuropeanThirdEnergyPackagerequirementthat
anycompanywhichownsthepipelinecannotalsoownthegasthatgoes
throughit,andmustreserve50%ofitscapacityfor"competitors"the
EUisokayforasinglecompanytobuildapipelineatitsownexpense,
butthenwantsthatcompanytogiveitscompetitorsafreeride.
Gazpromgotaroundthatbyforminganinternationalconsortium,which
willbuildandownthepipeline.Gazpromisashareholder.NordStream
IIshouldnotfallundertheThirdEnergyPackage,asitisasupplement
toanexistingandalready-approvedline,althoughDonaldTuskcontinues
toinsistthepipelinemustcomplywitheveryEuropeanregulationhecan
findpluswhateverhecanmakeup.ThePoles,forobviousreasons,are
verysupportiveofanindependentandprosperousUkraine-becausethey
willbepressuredtotakeasignificantshareoftheeconomicrefugees
ifitcollapses.ButthesignalfromMerkel-AKA"TheChancellorofthe
FreeWorld"-lookedprettyclearinherreplytoPutin'sletter,which
read(inpart),"Therearemanyreasonstoseriouslytakeintoaccount
thismessage[...]andforEuropetodeliverajointEuropeanresponse.
Whenwetakeallthesesteps,wecanbesurethatwehavereacheda
jointresponseforthecountriesthatfacethisproblembecausetheyare
gettinggasfromGazprom.Europeanstateswouldliketobegoodclients
butwewouldalsoliketobesureRussiangassuppliesarenotinterrupted."

Butthere'sanotherflyintheointment,onethatisnotmentionedin
politecircles:over50%ofUkraine'sdomesticgassupplycomesfrom
Russia,andUkraine'sownsupplypeakedyearsago.Ithasbeeninsteady
declineeversince.Therewasneveraquestionofwhowouldpayforthat
solongasEurope'ssupplywentthroughthesamepipes.Ukraine
regularlystalledonpayment,arguedoverthepriceafterithadalready
takenthegas,andwhenRussiasaid"nomoreforyouuntilyoupay",
justlaughedandsiphonedoffgasintendedforEuropeancustomersfor
itsownuse.SolongasEuropeangasgoesthroughUkraine,Ukrainehas
Russiaovertheproverbialbarrel,asalreadydiscussed.Butitis
importanttonotethatonceEurope'ssupplynolongergoesthrough
Ukraine,RussiahasnoincentivetokeepUkrainefromeconomiccollapse.
ThatmeansthatifUkrainecan'tpayforitsowndomesticsupply,up
front,thenit'sahardoldworld,Ukraine.Thelatestwesterndemocracy
projectwillbecaughtbetweenthelossofitstransitfees,lossofits
tax-freepreferred-trading-partnerstatuswithRussiaasapotential
memberoftheEurasianUnion(andwithit,itsRussianmarkets),a
crateringcurrency,lossofathirdofitstaxbase,andapartnership
withamultinationalentitythatinsistsonreformsandtheadoptionof
grindingausteritypoliciesinexchangeforlendingitanythingmore
thanemergencystarvationcash.

AndUkraine,indisputably,isanunreliablepartner.Partofthatisnot
itsfault,becauseitswesternsponsorsencourageittohateandcheat
Russiaateveryopportunitywhichpresentsitself,anditopenlygloats
overitsachievementswhenitripsoffRussians,rationalizingthatthey
areallthievesthemselvesandtoodrunktonotice.Kievproteststhat
itonlycheatsRussians,andisotherwiseashonestasthedayislong,
butitiseasytoseethatitconsidersanyonefairgamewhodoesnot
supporttheirvisionofUkraine.The"Soyuz"mainpipelinesupplying
naturalgastoHungaryandCroatiafromRussiaviaBelarusandUkraine
blewupacoupleofdaysago,insidewestUkraine,andthereisgood
reasontobelieveitwasadeliberateactofsabotagebyUkrainian
activists,whohavethreatenedbeforeonrepeatedoccasionstoattack
pipelinescarryingRussiangas.Iftheywereindeedresponsible,itwas
abitofanowngoal,sincethat'sthelinethatisusedtoreverse-flow
gastoUkrainefromHungary.Ukrainianactivistsrecentlyblewupsome
ofthepowerpylonscarryingnearlytheentireelectricalsupplyto
Crimea,apparentlyfrustratedbythecountry'sinabilitytoachievea
militaryvictoryinthecivilwaragainstitsowneasternregions.

FromBrusselsandWashington'spointofview,itisessentialthat
RussiaparticipateintherehabilitationofUkraineasaprosperous
monumenttoNATOexpansion.Becauseitfranklycannotbedonewithout
it.Russiaisunderstandablyunwillingtocooperateunderthose
circumstances,thescenariobeingwhatitis.Ukrainewillthereforebe
takenofftheboardasatransitcountry,anditsentirelivelihoodis
nowinperil.Thewestistryingtorectifyitsenormousblunderby
bullyingRussiaintocontinuingtosendEuropeangasthroughUkraine,
anditisnotworking.OneofUkraine'sgreatestfailingsisits
inabilitytoseewhoisleadingitintoruin,becauseitissomuchfun
tostickoutitstongueatRussiaandpullfaces.Havefun,Ukraine.

Anybodywanttosumthatupinacoupleoftrenchantlines?Oh,look:
JarodKintz,authorof"TheTitanicWouldNeverHaveSunkifitwere
MadeOutofaSink",wouldliketo.

"TheonlygiftIhavetogive,istheabilitytoreceive.Ifgivingisa
gift,anditsurelyis,thenmygifttoyouistoallowyoutogivetome."

[returntoContents]<#n0>

#18
Medium
http://medium.com
January1,2015
WhatRussiawantsin2016:Anewworldorder
ByDominicBasulto
DominicBasultowritesaboutinnovationforTheWashingtonPostand
foreignpolicyforRussiaDirect.Authorofthenewbook"Russophobia":
http://amzn.to/1NwjeU5

NowweknowwhatRussiawantsin2016.NotabiggerpieceofUkraine.
NottherighttopropuptheregimeinSyria.Nottherestorationofthe
oldSovietUnion.Nottherighttousenukesontheworldstage.No,
whatRussiawantsin2016isawholenewworldorder.

Rossiya1-thesameRussianTVnetworkthatgaveusthedocumentaryfilm
Crimea:TheWayHometoexplainRussia'sannexationofCrimea-isback
withabigger,bettertwo-hour"documentary"featuringanextended
interviewwithVladimirPutinthatgivesustheKremlin'sviewofthe
currentinternationalworldorder.

Itwouldbeeasytodismissthedocumentaryfilm,whichpremieredon
December20onRussiantelevision,asjustanotherbitofRussianstate
propaganda,exceptforthefactthatasurprisingnumberofhigh-powered
politicians,diplomatsandculturaltastemakersshowupinthe
film-JulianAssange,DominiqueStrauss-Kahn,JonStewart,LordDavid
Owen,ShimonPeres,PervezMusharraf,andyes,OliverStone(whoshows
upjust38secondsintothefilm).

Iprobablyshouldn'thavementionedOliverStonebecause,well,nowyou
knowthatthefilmmightjustbeagiantconspiracyflickstarring
VladimirPutinastheunreliablenarrator.Eversincethecollapseof
theSovietUnion25yearsago,suggestsPutin,theU.S.hasbecomea
hegemonicactorontheworldstage,turningEuropeintoavassalstate
andsystematicallyattemptingtosowrageandchaosaroundthe
world-especiallyintheMiddleEast-inordertostepintothevoidwith
its"illegal"attemptsatdemocracypromotion.

AsPutinsuggestsinaseriesofinterviewclips,theworldforever
changedwiththecollapseoftheSovietUnionin1991.(Coincidentally
thisisthesameyearthatformerPresidentGeorgeH.W.Bushfirst
mentionedthe"newworldorder"inaspeechaboutIraq.)Inthe1990s,
then,abipolarworldmorphedintoamultipolarworld,butallthe
participantsofthepost-Yaltasystemcontinuedtoplaybytheoldrules.

Well,kindof.Itdependsonhowyoudefine"playbytherules."

That'swherethe"WorldOrder"documentaryactuallybecomesinteresting.
Putinsuggeststhatalltheoldrulessetintoplacetopreventanew
globalwaraftertheendofWorldWarIIhavebeenignoredagainand
againbytheU.S.ThewholepointoftheUNSecurityCouncil,pointsout
Putin,istopreventonenationfromunilaterallyactingaloneonthe
worldstagetodestabilizetheglobalworldorder.

And,yet,that'sexactlywhat'shappenedeversincethe1990s.

Thefilmseekstolinkanumberofdisparateworldevents-the
disintegrationofYugoslavia,theAmericanmilitarycampaignsinIraq,
theArabSpringintheMiddleEast,theviolenceinUkraine,theMiddle
EastrefugeeflowstoEurope,andnowthemilitaryinterventionin
Syria-aspartofabroaderglobalconspiracybytheU.S.toremainthe
unchallengedglobalhegemon.Eventhenewtradeblocs-theTTIPandthe
TPP-areseenasawayfortheU.S.tospreaditspowerandinfluencein
newwaystoEuropeandAsia.

AllofthatwouldsoundlikesomebizarreJFKconspiracyhatchedby
OliverStone-theworldisouttogetRussia!-exceptforonethingthe
standardbitplayersinanyRussianpropagandafilmarenowheretobe
found.IntheCrimeadocumentary,youhadtheNightWolvesmotorcycle
gang,theCrimeanpartisans,andtherabidright-wingUkrainian
nationalistssettingschoolbusesonfire.Incontrast,anumberof
Russianactorsmaketheirwayontothestagein"WorldOrder"-notably,
ForeignMinisterSergeyLavrovandKremlinpressspokespersonDmitry
Peskov-butit'stheforeignactorswhodothebiggesttalking.

SerbianfilmmakerEmirKusturicaexplainswhyrefugeeflowsintoEurope
aresodangerous.ShimonPeresexplainshowheandalongtime
rival-YasserArafat-eventuallycametothenegotiatingtable,something
theU.S.hasrefusedtodowithRussia.DSKexplainshowthepowersthat
bewillstopatnothing-includingapotentialframe-upinNewYork-to
quashanyeffortstosupplanttheU.S.dollarastheunderpinningofthe
globalfinancialsystem.AssangeevensuggeststhattheU.S.drops
surveillancenetsovertheUNinNewYorkinordertomonitorand
preventdissentingopinions.

Inthefilm,Putinactuallycomesoffasoneofthemostrationalactors
ontheworldstage.(OK,OK,sothat'showthesepropagandafilmswork,
eh?)HillaryClintonisseencacklingattheideathattheU.S.finally
gotridofQaddafiinLibya("Wecame,wesaw,hedied").BarackObama
isseenclumsilyretreatingfromthemockeryofJonStewartaboutthe
failureoftheU.S.toenunciateanykindofpolicyfortheMiddleEast.

AsPutinnotesinthefilm,warisaninescapablerealityof
geopolitics.What'schangedoverthepast25years,though,ishowwe
wagethiswarandwhocontrolstheveryconceptofwar.War,saysPutin,
shouldbecivilized,transparent,understoodandcontrolled.Andthere
shouldalwaysbeadiplomaticoptiontoendanywar.Butaswe'reseeing
nowwithISIS,theverynotionof"war"seemstobeslippingawayfrom
us.Wenolongerknowwhowearefighting,orwhy.Andtheruleskeep
seemingtochange.

Putinalsooffershisviewof"interests"inthegeopoliticalcontext.
Everynationhas"interests,"hesuggests.Whatareneededaregeneral,
transparentrulesofthegamesothateachnationcanpursueitsown
interests.Iftherulesareroutinelybroken,orevenworse,ifdouble
standardsareappliedintheinterpretationoftheserules,that'swhen
theproblemsstart.

Cut,splice,cut,splice...Youcancomeupwithyourowninterpretation
ofthecurrentworldorder.Yet,it'shardtosetasidethenotionthat
theworldisonceagainonedgeandthattheworldneedsRussiatoplay
animportantroletokeepthingsinbalance.That'stheproblemwith
multipolarity-it'snotenoughjusttohaveoneglobalhegemon.

Inhindsight,italmostseemslikeRussiaactuallygotthingsright
afterthebreak-upoftheSovietUnion.NATOadvancingtoRussia's
bordersafterthecollapseoftheSovietUnionprobablywasn'tagood
thing.TheU.S.playingdivideandconquerintheMiddleEastwas
certainlynotagoodidea,giventheriseofISISandthemassive
refugeeflowsintoEurope.

There'saclipofPutinfromthe1990s,statinghisoppositiontothe
bombingofYugoslavia.ThereareclipsofPutinfromhisrecentUN
speechinNewYork,inwhichheoutlinedthescopeoftheproblems
facingtheworldtoday.Therearerepeatedouttakesfrompoliticians
acknowledgingthat,inhindsight,Russiahasbeenmoreprogressivethan
theU.S.inrecognizingthechangingcontoursofglobalaffairssince
thebreakupoftheSovietUnion.

Andthat'sreallythepoint:thattheworldhasforeverchangedsince
thebreak-upoftheSovietUnion,aneventthatPutinhasfamously
describedasthebiggestcatastropheofthe20thcentury.Overthelast
25years,thebipolarworldbecameamultipolarworld,buttheU.S.
continuestoignorethisfact.Itcontinuestodividetheworldinto
"good"and"evil,"withoutanyregardfortraditions,historyor
culture.Itcontinuestoportrayitselfasthe"moralleader"ofthe
freeworld,atermthatPutindismissesasaclichoftheColdWarera.

MassiverefugeeinflowsintoEuropeandtheriseofISISaretwoevents
thatprobablynobodypredicted25yearsago,butnowthey'rehere,and
Russiaisprovingthemorewillingandagileofthetwoformer
superpowerstocreateaNewWorldOrder.UntilsomeonetreatsRussiaas
anequal,itwillcontinuetorageagainstthemachine.Thatmightnot
soundsoterrible,exceptforoneveryterrifyingdetail:Russiastill
hasnukesandisn'tafraidtousethem.

[returntoContents]<#n0>

#19
TheAtlantic
December30,2015
TheWorldAccordingtoRussia
AdocumentaryonstatetelevisiongivesaglimpseofVladimirPutin's
philosophy.
ByJeffreyTayler
JEFFREYTAYLERisacontributingeditoratTheAtlanticandtheauthor
ofsevenbooks.

"Doyourealizewhatyouhavedone?"VladimirPutindemandedatthe
UnitedNationsinSeptember.Thequestionwasarebuketothe
American-ledblocofcountriesthatinitiallyviewedwithoptimismthe
ArabSpring,whichbeganfiveyearsagothismonth,buthassincegiven
waytochaosandIslamistviolenceacrossonce-stablepartsofthe
MiddleEastandNorthAfrica.Thoseevents,andmuchelse,look
differentwhenviewedfromRussiathantheydofromtheUnitedStates,
andadocumentarythatairedrecentlyonRussianstatetelevisionhelps
explaintheworldviewbehindPutin'squestion.

Thetwo-hour-plusfilm,Miroporyadok(WorldOrder),explores,inthe
wordsofitsnarratorVladimirSolovyov,"whatishappeningwithus
[Russians],whatsortofworldwehaveinheritedfromourparents,and
whatsortofworldwewillleavetoourchildren."Partlythrough
interviewswiththeRussianpresidenthimself,italsooffersawindow
onPutin'sownrealpolitikperspective,onethatI'vefoundtobewidely
sharedthroughoutRussiaovermanyyearsoflivinginthecountry-a
worldviewaccordingtowhichinternationalrelationsconsistof
competingblocsofnationspursuingtheirinterests,andtheviolation
ofsovereigntyisarecipeforinstability.Thisstandsincontrastto
Obama'sownposition,whichhestatedattheUNtwoyearsago,that
"sovereigntycannotbeashieldfortyrantstocommitwantonmurder,or
anexcusefortheinternationalcommunitytoturnablindeyetoslaughter."

"Ibelieve,"PutintellsSolovyov,"thatnooneshouldeverimposeany
sortofvaluesheconsiderscorrectonanyone.Wehaveourownvalues,
ourownconceptionsofjustice."Putindoesn'tnamenameshere,butthe
implicationisclearthroughout:WorldOrderendeavorstoincriminate
Americanforeignpolicyandplacetheblameforthecurrentchaosinthe
MiddleEastontheUnitedStates.Thefilm'santi-Americanismissubtle
butrelentless,andthespincomesmostlyfromomissionofrelevant
facts.AndthoughitoriginatedwithintheRussianstatepropaganda
machine,someofitscriticismsofwrongheadedU.S.policiesand
blunderinginterventionsintheMiddleEastsinceSeptember11,2001,
wouldgiveAmericanliberals,centrists,andevenafewconservatives
littlecausefordispute.Yetthedocumentarygoesfurther,leavingthe
strongimpressionthatgreedy,bungling,incorrigiblymyopic
conspirators"fromacrosstheocean"(aphrasePutinusesrepeatedlyin
thefilmtodescribetheU.S.leadership)bentonworlddominationare
toblameRussiacomesoffasunjustlydemonizedandRussiansthemselves
forcedtosuffereconomicallyasaresult.

Thelastpointisnotstated,butisimplied,andgivesanotherclue
abouthowtheworldlooksfromRussia.ForRussians,toadegree
unthinkableintheUnitedStates,foreignpolicyisalsodomestic
policy,notleastbecausetheirNearAbroadincludesUkraine,withwhich
theirtiesofblood,history,andcultureremainintimate.Andthanksto
multipleinvasionsofRussiaduringthe19thand20thcenturies,a
preoccupationwithnationalsecurityandnationalpridefigurestrongly
inRussianpolitics,withthepossibilityofwarnotatallremote.A
philosophyofrealpolitik-andnot,say,valuespromotion-wouldcome
naturallyunderthecircumstances.

Indeed,asthefilmtellsit,therootofallinternationalevilsisthe
Americanpenchantfordemocracy-spreading,bothsubtle(viaU.S.support
for"colorrevolutions"inthepost-Sovietsphere)andovert(asin
overthrowingSaddamHussein).RussianForeignMinisterSergeiLavrov
declaresthattheArabSpringwasfomentedfromabroad,disregardingthe
MiddleEasternregion'swidespreadpopulardiscontentwithofficial
corruption,politicalstasis,andlackofjobopportunities.TheUnited
Statesintervenesdespitebitterexperiencewithinlivingmemorythe
AmericandirectorOliverStoneappearsonscreentotellviewersthat
"Americadidn'tlearnthelessonofVietnam,whichisyoushouldn'tgo
aroundinvadingothercountries."

ButPutindenieschidingObamadirectlyattheUNfortheconsequences
oftheArabSpring."Iwasn'tsayingthis[toPresidentObama]"Putin
tellsSolovyov,buttotheconstellationofleaders,bothAmericanand
European,whohavebeenmeddlinginMuslimlandssince2001."Ihave
alwaysbeentelling[theseleaders]thattheyhavetoactcarefully.
It'swrongtoimposeone'sscheme...ofideasconcerninggoodandevil,
orinthiscase,goodanddemocracy,"oncountries"withdiffering
cultures,adifferentreligion,withothertraditions.Butfrankly,no
onelistens,becausetheyapparentlyconsiderthemselvesinfallibleand
great."Noone,headds,holdsthoseleadersaccountable,whateverthe
outcome.Whenan"operation"producesthewrongresults,Putinsays,the
(again,unnamed)leadersinquestionjustsay,"Ohwell.Next!"After
all,"They'regreatandsittingacrosstheocean,thedollaristhe
world'scurrency,theyhavethebiggesteconomyintheworld."

The"operations"towhichPutinrefersinclude,ofcourse,the2003Iraq
war,whichRussia,France,andGermanyopposed.Then-FrenchPresident
JacquesChiraq,Putinclaims,evenforesawthatterroristattacksin
Europe,resemblingthosethatoccurredinParisthisyear,couldgrow
outoftheanarchythatwouldresultfromSaddam'soverthrow.Anotheris
theimpositionofano-flyzoneoverLibyain2011(topreventthe
regimefromusingitsairforcetostageamassacre-afactthatgoes
unmentioned).Thefilmreplaysvideoofthen-SecretaryofStateHillary
Clinton'sremark,deliveredwithacallouslaugh,aboutLibyanstrongman
MuammarQaddafi'ssubsequentdeath-"Wecame,wesaw,hedied!"-followed
byfootageofthetyrant'sbrutalmurder,whichdriveshomethe
real-lifeconsequencesoftheinterventionanditsbloodyaftermath.
(Eerily,thefilmalsoshowsQaddafiaddressingArableadersata2011
ArabLeaguesummit,andasking,afterSaddamHussein'sexecution,"Who
amongyouisnext?")

TheWikileaksfounderJulianAssangealsomakesanappearance,citing
cablesrevealingU.S.effortstounderminetheregimeofSyrian
PresidentBasharal-Assad-thoughAmericanofficialscontinuetomaintain
thatAssadmustgoeventually,thecablesinquestionmostlikely
concernWikileaksrevelationsmadein2006.ThefilmshowsSyrians
lamentingthechaosthepresumablyAmerican-backedterroristshave
unleashed.NomentionismadeofAssad'smurderouscrackdownonthe
demonstrationsthatsetofftherevolt,orofthebarrelbombsdeployed
againstcivilianstothisdayatgreatcosttocivilianlife,orofthe
U.S.aircampaignagainstISIS.

ButthemessageofWorldOrder,asthetitleimplies,extends
geographicallywiderandhistoricallyfurtherbackthanAmerica's
post-September11policiesintheMiddleEast.Asthefilm,and
presumablyPutin,haveit,therealproblemtodayisnottheriseof
ISISbutthebreakdowninrelationsbetweenRussiaandtheWest.Akey
causeofthisconflicthasbeentheeastwardexpansionofNATOsincethe
BerlinWallfellin1989,whichhasbroughtwithitthestationingof
troopsonRussia'sborderwiththeBaltics,planstoonedayadmit
Ukraine(andGeorgia),and,asaneventualresult,Russia'sintervention
inUkraine.

"Whydid[theWest]supportthecoup?"Putinasks,usinghistermfor
theuprisingsthatbroughttheousterofthen-UkrainianPresidentViktor
Yanukovychin2014.HecitesWesternfearsthatRussiawastryingto
recreatetheSovietUnion."Ithinkmanyofourpartnersseetheymadea
mistake,butjustdon'twanttoadmitit.Theytookadvantageofpopular
discontentnotjustwithYanukovych,butgoingbacktoindependence....
Doesanyonethinkthingsarebettertherenow?"

FewwoulddisputePutin'sdamningdescriptionofUkraine'spost-Maidan
straits:"Thestandardoflivinghasfallencatastrophically....What
havetheygotteninreturn?Possibly[Ukrainians]willbeallowedto
traveltoEuropewithoutavisa.Andpossiblynot."

ButPutinemphasizesthathedoesnotblameEuropeansforthepolicies
oftheUnitedStates,since,inhisview,theyarenothingmorethan
"vassals"takingorders"fromacrosstheocean,"atleastasfaras
foreignpolicygoes.Hesurelyunderstandstherelationshiptobemore
complicatedthanthat,butsuchanapproachplacestheblameforthe
standoffbetweenRussiaandtheWestonAmerica,andletshimmakea
directoverturetoEurope."Wedon'texpectourEuropeanpartnersto
giveuptheirEuro-Atlanticorientation"buttheywoulddowellto
"unitewithRussia"toresolve"economic,political,security,and
economicproblems....Wearereadytoworkwiththemandaren'tabout
topoutaboutthesanctions,"hesays.

Significantly,thoughheneverrulesoutcooperation,Putinmakesno
suchoverturetotheUnitedStates.Rather,thefilmcloseswith
Solovyovaskinghimthequestionusedtoteaseviewersintheintro:
Willtherebewar-WorldWarIII,inparticular?
Probablynot,Putinresponds,aslongasnocrazyindividualdecidesto
usenuclearweaponsandstartit.Butjustincase,"Russiawill
continueperfectingits[nuclear]weapons.Thenucleartriadformsthe
basisofoursecuritypolicy.Wehaveneverbrandishedournuclear
bludgeon,andneverwill,butitretainsitsproperplaceandrolein
ourmilitarydoctrine."

Theupshot,accordingtoWorldOrder:Putinconsiderspossiblearenewed
relationshipwithEurope,butseesnosuchlikelihoodwiththeUnited
States.ThisisoneareawheretheviewsfromWashingtonandMoscow
aren'tsodifferent-andthatisbadnews.

[returntoContents]<#n0>

#20
SicSemperTyrannis
January2,2015
http://turcopolier.typepad.com/sic_semper_tyrannis
Analternativeforeignpolicy
ByDavidHabakkuk

Beforediscussingwhatkindofforeignandsecuritypolicyis
appropriatefortheUnitedStates-orthecountriesofWesternEurope,
orindeedanyoneelse-itisnecessarytobeclearabouthowtheworld
hasbeenchanging.

InanarticlelastOctoberentitled'TheUnipolarWorldIsEnding',a
verygoodRussia-watcher,GilbertDoctorow,arguedthatweareactually
movingtowardsanewbipolarworld.Centraltohiscaseisthe
contentionthattheemergingChinese-Russianallianceisbasednot
simplyuponasharedfearofU.S.'containment'strategiesdirected
againstthem,butonideologicalconsiderations.

Failuretograspthisfact,inmyview,leadspeopletoassumeeither
thattheemergenceofwhatmightbecalleda'Mackinderite
consolidation'inEurasiaiseithernotreallyhappening,orislikely
tobeephemeral.

KeyparagraphsfromDoctorow'sarticle:

'OnthesideoftheEUandtheUSA,democracy,preciselyaspracticedin
America,neo-liberaleconomics,andhumanrightsintheirlatestand
mostexpansiveeditionthathasbarelytakenrootamongUSandEuropean
progressives,arethedefiningelementsofwhatconstitutesagood
society.Bydefinition,onlysuchsocietiesarestableandpeace-loving.
Thosecountrieswhichdifferwiththegoldenstandardmustbebrought
intolinetoensureapeacefulworld.Thiscanbedoneanywhichway:by
subversionornon-militarycoerciontobringaboutregimechange,orby
puremilitaryforceifnon-militarymethodsfailtobringaboutthe
desiredresults.

'OnthesideofRussiaandChina,thereisthebeliefthatfor
nation-statestruefreedommeansfreedomtofollowtheirowndevelopment
courseandtoorganizetheirsocietiesinkeepingwithnational
traditions.Moreover,theystaunchlydefendtheprinciplesof
Westphalia,meaningtheequalityofsovereignstatesand
non-interventionintheinternalaffairsofotherstates.'

(Seehttp://russia-insider.com/en/essay/unipolar-world-ending/ri10595.)

Thepiece,Isuspect,reflectstheinfluenceofRichardSakwa'sanalysis
ofthe'newAtlanticism',publishedshortlybefore,andavailableat
http://eng.globalaffairs.ru/number/The-New-Atlanticism-17695.

Onecanformulatethisintermsofdifferentresponsestothepatent
failureofMarxist-Leninistsecularisationofuniversalisticmillenarian
strandsinChristianity.ThelessondrawnbylitesintheUnitedStates
andWesternEurope,andthe'liberals'whodominatedRussianpoliticsin
theimmediatepost-Sovietperiod,wasthattheAmericannationalist
secularisationofthesestrandshasbeenvindicated.

ThebasisoftheideologicalchallengewhichPutinhasbeenarticulating
withprogressivelygreaterforceoverthepastyearsisthatthe
appropriatelessonofthefailureofMarxism-Leninismisthatallforms
ofuniversalisticmillenarianismleadnaturallytodisaster.

Suchaperspectiveleadsnaturallytoaviewofearlytwentiethcentury
historyinwhichtheheroesareneithertherevolutionaryradicals,nor
theliberals.Instead,theyareTsariststatesmenlikeStolypinorPeter
Durnovo,andintellectualslikethosewhoproducedthe1909'Vekhi'
symposium-which,astheWikipediaentrywilltellyou,wasthe
brainchildoftheJewishliteraryhistorianMikhailGershenzohn.
(Seehttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vekhi.)

Thisseemstohavebeenanimmenselyseriousattemptfindawayoutof
variouskindsof'cargocult'thinkingtowhichintellectualsin
societiesattemptingto'modernise'areprone.Amongmanyvariantsof
these,aswellastheMarxistandromanticnationalist,weretheliberal.

AndGershenzohnputquitebluntlyapointthatremainsrelevanttoday,
thatinsocietieslackingtheculturalpreconditionsforliberalism,a
brutalauthoritarianregimemayactuallybeanindispensableprotector
of'Westernised'lites,andofsuchprospectsastheremaybefor
relativelycivilisedformsof'modernisation'.

Inasentencethatwastoproveprescient,Gershenzohnarguedthat'so
farfromdreamingofunionwiththepeopleweoughttofearthepeople
andblessthisgovernmentwhich,withitsprisonsandbayonets,still
protectsusfromthepeople'sfury.'

In1917,hisco-authorNikolaiBerdyaevwouldpointtotheprophetic
natureof'Vekhi',inanarticleentitled'TheRuinofRussian
Illusions'.Towardsitsconclusion,hewouldwritethat'theRussian
"BolshevikRevolution"isadreadfulworldwidereactionaryphenomenon,
justasreactionaryinitsspirit,asthe''Rasputinism'',astheBlack
Hundredkhlystyism.'

(Seehttp://www.berdyaev.com/berdiaev/berd_lib/1917_280.html.)

AmongratherfewattemptsinthemainstreamWesternmediatomakesome
senseoftheideologicalchallengePutinismaking,adiscussioninthe
'Atlantic'byJeffreyTaylerofarecenttwo-hourfilm'WorldOrder'
presentedbyVladimirSolovyevisofsomeinterest.

(See
http://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2015/12/russia-putin-miroporyadok/422196/

.)

Apparentlythereisasubtitledversionofthewholeat
http://www.liveleak.com/view?i=cf6_1451260176.

Ingeneral,however,onecanseefewsignsthatWesternliteshaveany
kindofgraspoftheideologicalchallengetheyface.

Anotherfeatureofthenewbipolarworldisthatweareseeinganew
nucleararmsrace,asindeedtheClinton-eraDefenseSecretary,William
J.Perry,notedrecently.

(See
http://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/the-new-nuclear-arms-race/2015/12/11/83445bc0-a021-11e5-bce
4-708fe33e3288_story.html

.)

However,onceagainWesternliteshaveverylittlegraspofwhathas
beenhappening.Ifonecannotgrasptheideologicaldimensionsofthe
'NewColdWar',youwillobviouslynotbeabletograspthemilitaryones.
AtthetimewhenitwasbecomingcleartothinkingpeopleintheSoviet
litethattheMarxist-LeninistsecularisationofChristianeschatology
deservedthecontemptwhichfigureslikeBerdyaevhadaccordedit,they
confrontedaquestionastowhattheColdWarwasabout.

Partofthe'cargocult'thinkingofthe'EightiesinRussiawasthat
theColdWarhadessentiallybeenaboutideology-inwhichcase,
Westernnotionsof'rollback'and'liberation'couldbeseenasboth
justifiedandintheinterestsofRussians.

AsWilliamJ.Perryappearstobebeginningtorealise,Westernpolicies
couldhardlyhavebeenbettercalculated,ifwehadactuallywantedto
convinceRussiansthiswas'cargocult'thinking.

Tocutaratherlongstoryshort,itisclearthatamainstreamRussian
officialperceptionisnowthatWesternstrategieshaveallalongbeen
aimedat'escalationdominance',withtheaimofdestroyingnotsimply
communismbutRussianpower,andindeedRussianindependence.

Itmaybe,as'bth'appearstothink,thatgettinginvolvedinbitter
intra-Ukrainiandisputes-whichAmericansingeneralseemincapableof
eventryingtounderstand-isaworthwhileobjectiveforyourcountry's
policy.Apparently,manyoftheBritishlitesseemtothinkthis.

Butyoumustappreciatetheconsequences.Clearly,theRussiansare
lookingfor'asymetric'responseswhichenablethemtorunrisksof
confrontationwiththeUnitedStatesalikeinUkraineandSyria.

Amongthem,astheKatrinavanHeuvelreporttowhichIhavelinked
failstograsp,isasimpleone.

Astheyplanforthe'DoctorStrangelove'scenarios,theRussian
militarywillwanttoensurethat,shouldtheextraordinary
technologicalcapabilitiesofAmericansgivethemthecapacityfora
largelysuccessful'firststrike',therewillstillbeafewsurviving
Russiansubmarines.

Andtheircaptainswillthensendthenucleartorpedoestowhichthe
reportrefersoff,programmed,say,totargettheoutletsofthe
Charles,Hudson,andPotomacrivers.Andafewofthemwillgetthrough.

Youdon'tneedmany.Oneforeachrivershoulddo.

Tocomefullcircle,areallyinterestingquestionthenbecomeshowfar
theemergingChinese-Russianalliancewillgoinco-operationon
military-technologicaldevelopment.

Inview,thisislikelytobepartlyaquestionofhowfartheChinese
havethestrategicsensethatitisnotintheirlong-termintereststo
indulgetheirenthusiasmfor'reverseengineering'toofar.

[returntoContents]<#n0>

#21
Consortiumnews.com
January2,2015
HearingtheRussianPerspective
ByGilbertDoctorow
GilbertDoctorowistheEuropeanCoordinator,AmericanCommitteefor
EastWestAccord,Ltd.HislatestbookDoesRussiaHaveaFuture?
(August2015)isavailableinpaperbackande-bookfromAmazon.comand
affiliatedwebsites.FordonationstosupporttheEuropeanactivitiesof
ACEWA,writetoeastwestaccord@gmail.com.GilbertDoctorow,2015

TheneoconsandliberalhawkswhodominatetheU.S.foreignpolicyand
mediaestablishmentarepushingtheworldtowardanuclearshowdownwith
Russiaasfewpeoplehearacomprehensiveresponsefromtheotherside,
animbalancethatanewRussiandocumentaryaddresses,writesGilbert
Doctorow.
Withoutmincingwords,thenewRussiandocumentaryWorldOrderisa
devastatingcritiqueofU.S.globalhegemonyjustifiedinthenameof
"democracypromotion"and"humanrights"eversincethefallofthe
SovietUnionin1992.

ItisdirectlyinlinewithRussianPresidentVladimirPutin'sfirst
repudiationoftheAmericanunipolarworldissuedinhisspeechtothe
MunichSecurityConferenceinFebruary2007andhisfurther,evermore
explicitexpossinasuccessionofspeechesthatchallengedspecific
manifestationsof"Americanexceptionalism."

WorldOrder,whichisnowpostedonYouTube(inRussian)
[http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZNhYzYUo42g
]

andatanothersite(withEnglishsubtitles)
[http://www.liveleak.com/view?i=cf6_1451260176
],

illustratesthroughgraphicfootageandthetestimonyofindependent
worldauthoritiesthetragicconsequences,thespreadofchaosand
misery,resultingfromU.S.-engineered"regimechange"and"color
revolutions,"ofwhichtheviolentoverthrowoftheYanukovichregimein
UkraineinFebruary2014isonlythelatestexample.(Someofthe
highlightsfromPutin'sinterviewaretranslatedintoEnglishhereand
here.)
http://www.rt.com/news/326666-putin-ukraine-soviet-union-turkey/

ThetitleofthefilmfollowsonPutin'saddresstothe70thanniversary
gatheringoftheUnitedNationsGeneralAssemblyinSeptember2015which
hadasitscentralmessagethatworldorderrestsoninternationallaw,
whichinturnhasasitsfoundationtheUNCharter.

ByfloutingtheCharterandwagingwarwithoutthesanctionoftheUN
SecurityCouncil,startingwiththeNATOattackonSerbiain1999and
continuingwiththeinvasionofIraqin2003uptoitsillegalbombings
inSyriatoday,theUnitedStatesanditsNATOallieshaveshakenthe
foundationsofinternationallaw.

AssetoutinWorldOrder,Putin'sidentificationoftherootcauseof
thefailuretobringtheU.S.backtoreasonliesnotingiven
individuals,likeBarackObamaorGeorgeW.Bush,butinthementality
ofWestern,andinparticularAmericanelitesformedbytheirimpunity,
theirabilitytowalkawayfromthecatastrophestheirpoliciescreate
withoutanyfeelingofresponsibility,withoutbeingheldtoaccount.
Theirevasionofresponsibilityandfailuretolearnfromerrorcome
frombeingtherichestandmilitarilymostpowerfulnationonearth.

WorldOrderpresentsdramaticevidenceofthebrutalitywhichflowsfrom
Americanpolicieswhenfunctioningifflawedstatesareconvertedinto
failedstatesthroughcolorrevolutions,ashashappenedacrossthe
MiddleEastandNorthAfricasincethenewmillennium.Weareshown
SaddamHussein'sfinalmomentsbeforeexecution,thenthedenunciation
ofthisjudicialmurderbyMuammarGaddafibeforealaughingaudienceof
ArabLeaguedeputies,thenthebarbaricmobmurderofGaddafihimself
followedbytheexultantfaceofHillaryClintonafterthistriumphof
U.S.foreignpolicy.

WealsolistentoGaddafi'sdetailedpredictionofthevastfloodof
refugeesandspreadofjihadistsinNorthAfricathatwouldfollow
shouldhisregimebetoppled.Andwearegivenvideofootagefromthe
2015refugeeflowsintoEuropewiththeirmobscenesatstateborders
thatbearoutthosewarnings.

DiversePointsofView

TheforeignintervieweesinWorldOrdercompriseanimpressiveand
diverseselectionofleadersinvariousdomains,includingAmericanfilm
directorOliverStoneThomasGraham,formerNationalSecurityCouncil
directorforRussiaunderGeorgeW.Bushandcurrentmanagingdirector
atKissingerAssociatesformerIMFDirectorDominiqueStrauss-Kahn
formerPakistanPresidentPerwezMusharrafformerFrenchForeign
MinisterDominiqueVillepinformerIsraeliPresidentShimonPeres
WikileaksfounderJulianAssangeanddeputyleaderoftheDieLinke
partyintheGermanBundestagSahraWagenknecht.Others,likeUN
SecretaryGeneralBanKiMoon,putincameoappearances.

Strauss-Kahn,MusharrafandotherschargethattheU.S.plotsagainst
anddestroysforeignleaderswhodaretoopposeAmerica'stotalcontrol
overglobalflowsofmoney,goodsandpeople.Wagenknechtaddressesthe
questionofGermany'ssubserviencetoAmericanDiktatsanditsdefacto
circumscribedsovereignty.ThestatementssupportPutin'slong-standing
argument,reiteratedinthefilm,thattheWesternEuropeanalliesof
theU.S.arenothingmorethanvassals.

VladimirPutin'sclosingremarksabouttheplaceofnucleararmsin
Russia'smilitarydoctrinemustnotbeplayeddown.Sayingaloudthat
Russiahasnotandwillnotbrandishitsnucleartruncheon,is,in
effect,doingjustthat.Allofthisisofonepiecewiththeway
Russia'saerospaceforceshaveconductedtheirattacksinSyriaonthe
IslamicStateandonthearmedoppositiontoSyrianPresidentBashar
al-Assadthesepasttwomonths.

Theuseofheavybombersflying15,000kilometersfromtheKola
Peninsula,innorthwestRussiaalongtheArcticCircle,withthehelpof
night-timein-flightrefuelingtheuseofcruisemissilesfiredfrom
frigatesintheCaspianSeaatdistancesof1,300kmtotargetsin
SyriaandtheuseofcruisemissileslaunchedfromRussiansubmarines
intheMediterraneanhaveallhadapoliticaldimensionfarexceeding
militarynecessityintheSyriantheater:theydemonstrateRussia's
capabilityofwagingglobalwar,includingglobalnuclearwar.These
actionsarealsodepictedinthefilm.

IsWorldOrderpropaganda?Itmostcertainlyis.Isitdirected
primarilyattheRussiandomesticaudience,astheTelegraphnewspaper
insists?No.LikeallofPutin'sforeignpolicyaddresses,whether
deliveredabroadorathome,asintheValdaiDiscussionClub,whether
issuedwithsubtitlesinEnglishornot,itsprimaryaudienceisin
Washington,D.C.withasecondaryaudienceinBrussels.

Onemaysupposethatthepurposeisnottotouchofforacceleratean
armsracebut,onthecontrary,tobringtheothersidetoitssenses
andpersuadeitof1)Russia'sseriousnessaboutdefendingmilitarily
whatitseesasvitalnationalinterestsand2)itsabilitytodeliver
massivedestructiontoanenemyeveninthefaceofapossiblefirst
nuclearstrike,andsotoreinstatetheMutuallyAssuredDestruction
deterrencethatAmerica'sglobalmissiledefensewassupposedtocancelout.

However,inWorldOrder,Putinlistsseveralareasofcommonconcern
overwhichRussiaispreparedtocooperatewiththeWest.Indeedthese
verysameprospectiveareasofcooperationcomeuprepeatedlyinthe
publicwritingsandspeechesoftherelativelyfew"fightersforpeace"
whoaretryingtodrawtheworldcommunitybackfromthebrinkintosome
kindofdtente.

DangerousClash

Yet,pullingthatraisinoutofcakeistoseriouslymisunderstandthe
veryclearmessagecomingoutofRussia:thatthedestructionofworld
orderbyU.S.-led"democracypromotion"anditsspreadof"universal
values"willnotbetoleratedandthatRussiahassetdowncertainred
lines,suchasagainstNATOexpansionintoUkraineorGeorgiaoverwhich
itwillfighttothedeathusingallitsresources.Weignorethese
messagesatourperil.

AsweentertheU.S.presidentialelectoralseasonandavastnumberof
foreignpolicyandmilitaryadvisersareemergingtogivecounseltothe
candidatesonrelationswithRussiaandothermajorpowersinthehope
ofsecuringhighpostsinthenextU.S.administration,itisworth
lookingagainatthelessonsofthesummerandautumnof2008,whenwhat
becamethe"reset"policywasformulated,throughApril2009whenits
implementationbegan.

ThatinitiativetookshapethelasttimethattheUnitedStatesand
Russiawereonacourseofconfrontationleadingstraighttoarmed
conflict.ThecontextwastheRussian-Georgianwarandthedeploymentof
U.S.navalforcesoffthecoastofAbkhazia,poisedtoattackthenearby
Russiangroundforces.

Theimminentthreatofwarandtheongoingcampaigningforpresidential
electionsinNovemberformedanexusofcircumstancesnotvery
dissimilarfromwherewearetodaywhenU.S.andalliedairforces
competeforspaceintheskiesaboveSyriawithasubstantialRussian
forcethatincludesfighters,bombersandthemostadvancedair-defense
systemintheRussianarsenal.

Ihavesetouttheoriginsoftheresetpolicyinthe15-pagechapter
entitled"ObamaChangesUS-RussianRelations"inmy2013bookStepping
OutofLinetowhichIreferthereaderforfulldetails.HereIwill
limitmyselftoseveralkeyfactsandconclusionsastheybearonour
presentsituation.

FirstamongthesekeyfactswasthemobilizationofAmerica'spolitical
andscientificelitestobringaboutachangeinU.S.foreignpolicy
thatwouldtakeusbackfromthebrinkofwar.Manyofthenameswhich
cameintoplaythenareonceagainbeingsummonedbythefightersfor
peacetoweighinonthesideoftheangels.

Theproblemisthatthosewhohadcreatedtheconventionalwisdomabout
theroleoftheU.S.intheworldwereill-preparedtogobeyond
tinkeringattheedgesofthatwisdom,resultinginthefailureofreset
togototheheartofthedisputewithRussiaandultimatelythisledto
manytearsofregretallaround.

AnIncompleteReset

Thestartingpointofwhatbecamethe"reset"wasthefoundingonAug.
1,2008,oftheCommissiononU.S.PolicyTowardRussiaundertheaegis
offormerSenatorsChuckHagel(Republican)andGaryHart(Democrat),
settingthebipartisancourseoftheinitiative.Ithadasitsbackers
theNixonCenterinWashington,athinktankwhoseHonoraryChairmanwas
formerSecretaryofStateHenryKissinger.Itwasalsosupportedbythe
BelferCenterforScienceandInternationalAffairs,aresearchcenter
withintheJohnF.KennedySchoolofGovernment,HarvardUniversity.

MembersincludedformerU.S.ambassadorstotheUSSRorRussiaJames
Collins,JackMatlockandThomasPickeringaswellasformerNational
SecurityCouncilorDefenseDepartmentofficialsandtopbusiness
leaders,suchastheformerchairmanoftheworld'slargestinsurance
company,MauriceGreenberg.Amongthosewhoworkedcloselywiththe
CommissioneitherinsideoroutsidewereformerSecretaryofState
GeorgeSchultz,formerDefenseSecretaryWilliamPerryandformer
SenatorSamNunn.

UltimatelytheCommissionissueda17-pagereportentitled"TheRight
DirectionforU.S.PolicytowardRussia"whichcontainedmanyofthe
pointstakenupinthepapersoutliningresetwhichPresidentObama's
delegationsignedoffwiththeRussianswhentheymetinLondononApril
1,2009,onthesidelinesofthefirstsummitmeetingbetweenObamaand
RussianPresidentDmitryMedvedev.

Thecenterpieceof"reset"-asdefinedinthestatepaperssignedin
London-wasrenewalofthe1994StrategicArmsLimitationTreaty
(START)thatwasscheduledtoexpireinDecember2009.Italsocalled
fororganizing"contactsbetweenourtwogovernmentsinamore
structuredandregularway."Anditwentontourgegreatercooperation
betweensocieties:moreculturalexchanges,studentexchanges,
scientificcooperation,andcooperationamongNGOs.
STARTrenewalwasestablishedasapriorityoftheObama
administration'soverallforeignpolicy,whichcalledforstoppingand
reversingdeploymentofnucleararmsandenforcingnon-proliferation.In
theend,thatobjectivewasachieved.Butintheend,thatachievement
didnothingtopreventtheoutbreakofanewarmsraceandevergreater
riskofnuclearwaramongthegreatpowersthatweseetoday.

Amajorreasonforthisfailurewasthetimidityofthosecallingfora
newpolicyonRussia.ThereportfromtheCommissionassumedcontinuing
U.S.hegemonyinworldaffairs.Itstoodbythepolicyofcontinuing
expansionofNATOmembership,includingtoUkraineandGeorgia,andthe
onlyconcessionwastoslowdownthetimetable.Itcalledforthe
continuedroll-outoftheglobalmissiledefenseshield.

WhiletheauthorsurgedendingU.S.restrictionsontradewithRussia
anditsadmissiontotheWorldTradeOrganization,theynonetheless
espousedtheconventionalwisdomonthedangersofRussia'sdominant
positionasenergysuppliertoEuropeandcameoutinfavorofbuilding
gaspipelinestoEuropeskirtingRussianterritoryandthereby
diversifyingEurope'senergysuppliesatRussia'sexpense.

ANewSecurityArchitecture

TheoverridingRussianconcernforanewsecurityarchitecturetobeput
inplaceinEuropethatwouldbringtheminfromthecoldreceiveda
sympatheticifnoncommittalresponsefromtheCommission.Theproposals
inthisregardputforwardbyPresidentMedvedevinApril2008shouldbe
formallyreviewed,theysaid,butwithoutanyspecificrecommendations.

Withrespectto"democracypromotion"inRussia,theCommissionmembers
calledforthevolumeofcriticismofRussiatobeturneddown.They
alsocalledforashowofdecencybyAmericansintheirdealingswith
Russia.

Asidefromthenewstrategicarmsreductiontreaty,Obama'sresetcame
tonaught.

Itbearsstressingthattoday'ssituationismorethreateningthanin
2008.AgainstabackgroundofshrillInformationWarfarebetweenRussia
andtheWest,thedenigrationoftheRussianleadershipandofthe
countryingeneralbytheoccupantoftheOvalOfficeandbyleading
membersofCongresshasadvancedtolevelsunequaledintheworstdays
oftheColdWar.

MeanwhileRussia'sstrategicmilitarycapabilitiesinbothnuclearand
conventionalwarfarehaveadvancedincrediblyfromthelevelsof2008
whenWesternmilitaryobserversexpressedtheirsatisfactionthatthe
performanceoftheRussianmilitarydidnotseemmuchimprovedoverthe
daysoftheill-fatedAfghanwarthatbroughtdowntheSovietUnion.
Today,ifwearetoescapefromthecycleof"resets"-frombitter
disappointmentoversouringofrelationsafterafewlandmarkfruitsof
cooperationandthentheonsetofnew,heightenedrisksofnuclearwar-
wemustseizethenettleandresolvetoaddresstheunderlyingproblems
ofinternationalrelationsthattheRussianleadershipcite,most
recentlyinthedocumentaryfilmWorldOrder.

Dtente,i.e.,relaxationoftensionsandimprovedatmospherics,isonly
agoodbeginning,nothingmore.

It'sworthnotingthatthefilm'sdirectorandco-authorisoneofthe
mostintelligentandfair-mindedpresentersonRussiantelevision,
VladimirSoloviev,whoisbestknowntodayforprime-timeevening
debatesonhotdomesticandinternationalissuesinwhichthe"other
side,"whetherUkrainianorAmericanortheRussianoppositionparties
intheDuma,isalwayspresentinwhatamountsattimestoastonishing
opennessofdiscussiononlivetelevision,whenitdoesnotdescendinto
shoutingmatches.

SolovievhasaPh.D.ineconomicsfromtheInstituteofWorldEconomics
andInternationalRelationsoftheUSSRAcademyofSciences.Hewasan
activeentrepreneurinthe1990sandspentsometimebacktheninthe
U.S.,wherehisactivitiesincludedteachingeconomicsattheUniversity
ofAlabama.Ifheistheauthorofpropaganda,onecanbecertainitis
sophisticatedandservescertainphilosophicalandethicalvalues,not
individualsorpowerforpower'ssake.

ThedocumentarywasreleasedbythestatebroadcasterPervyKanalon
Dec.20.

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 From: RobertOtto<robertotto25@gmail.com>
Senttime: 01/01/201605:37:17AM
To: DonaldJensen<donald.jensen8@gmail.com>
Subject: Re:.....speakingofvillageidiots

SomebodyneedstotellRojanskiythatBelarusisnotRussia.

OnJan1,2016,at8:36AM,DonaldJensen<donald.jensen8@gmail.com>wrote:

Thanks.Missedit.TillIreadyourcommentsIwasinsurewhetheryouwerereferringtoMikey,Rojansky,orboth.

OnFri,Jan1,2016at8:31AM,RobertOtto<robertotto25@gmail.com>wrote:
http://www.washingtonpost.com/news/powerpost/wp/2015/12/30/lack-of-russia-experts-has-the-u-s-playing-
catch-up/?postshare=1351451515733124&tid=ss_fb-bottom

Sotheproblem20yearsagowasnottheanalysisthatRussiawasonapathtowarddemocracy,theproblemwasthe
analysisthatRussia'sindecline.

a)somebodyneedstotellthismoronthatdeclineisnotsynonymouswithimmediatecollapse."

b)somebodywhowrotethisgemshouldbeatadmorehumbleinhispublicpronouncments

http://cddrl.fsi.stanford.edu/publications/getting_russia_right

HistorianswillsomedaywritethatRussiare-enteredtheWesterncommunityofstatesasamarketdemocracyattheendof
the20thcentury.Youwouldn'tthinkso,however,fromthevituperativeandpessimistictoneofmostcontemporary
commentaryintheUnitedStatesaboutRussiaandU.S.-Russianrelations.FocusingonluridaccountsofRussianmoney
laundering,cronyism,andwidespreadpoliticalandeconomicdisarray,politiciansandpunditshaveblastedtheClinton
administrationformishandlingacrucialstrategicrelationshipand"losing"Russia.

Ofcoursethisisthesameguywhowrote(UnfinishedRevolutionpp24-25)"ifhistorymatteredallthetime,therewould
neverbeanychange."
 From: RobertOtto<robertotto25@gmail.com>
Senttime: 01/04/201612:23:04PM
To: FionaHill<fhill@brookings.edu>
Subject: FredKaplan:HowObamaMakesForeignPolicy|ForeignAffairs

http://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/2015-12-07/obamas-way?cid=emc-Dec15_Remail_A-content-
123115&sp_mid=50368504&sp_rid=cm9iZXJ0b3R0bzI1QGdtYWlsLmNvbQS2&spMailingID=50368504&spUserID=
OTQ5NTcwNTM2OTIS1&spJobID=824531828&spReportId=ODI0NTMxODI4S0

Obama'sWay
OnJanuary28,2009,barelyaweekintohispresidency,BarackObamametwiththeU.S.militarystopgeneralsandadmiralson
theirownturf,insidethetank,theJointChiefsofStaffsconferenceroomonthesecondfloorofthePentagon.Aseniorofficial
recalledthenewpresidentasremarkablyconfidentcomposed,relaxed,butalsodeferential,nottryingtoacttoomuchthe
commanderinchief.Obamawalkedaroundtheroom,introducinghimselftoeveryonehethankedthemandtheentirearmed
forcesfortheirserviceandsacrificethenhesatdownforafreewheelingdiscussionoftheworldschallenges,regionbyregion,
crisisbycrisis.Hewasthemaninfull,theofficialsaid,fluentoneveryissue,butmorethanthatasurprisetotheofficers,who
hadbeenleeryofthisyoung,inexperiencedDemocrathedisplayedadeepstreakofrealism.

Atonepoint,Obamaremarkedthathewasnotthesortofpersonwhodrivesdownastreetwishinghecouldparkwhereverhe
likes.Ifhesawanopenspot,evenonethatrequiredsometrickyparallelparking,hewouldbefinewithsqueezingintoit.Obamas
meaningwasclear:hehadbeendealtabadhand(twounpopularwars,alienatedallies,thedeepestrecessionindecades),buthe
wouldfindawaytodealwiththeworldasitwas.

Sevenyearslater,manyofficersanddefenseofficials,includingsomewhoweresoimpressedwithObamaatthestart,lookbackat
hispresidencyasfollowingadifferentstyleofgoverning.TheylaudthehistoricaccomplishmentstheIrannucleardeal,the
openingtoCuba,theTrans-PacificPartnership,theprevention(sofar)ofanotherterroristattackonAmericansoilandthey
acknowledgethathehasoftentriedtomakethebestofbadchoices.Buttoooften,theysay,hehasavoidedtakingaction,waiting
forconditionstogetbettercirclingtheblockand,inhisownmetaphor,waitingforabetterparkingspottoopenup.

ThisisacommoncritiqueofObamasforeignpolicy:thatheevadesharddecisions,thatheisallergictomilitaryforceifitrisks
Americancasualtiesorescalation,thatthereisoftenamismatchbetweenhiswordsandhisdeeds.Thisisapattern,oneretired
four-stargeneralsaid.Heissuessternwarnings,thendoesnothing.ItdamagesAmericancredibility.

Isthechargetrue?Andtotheextentthatithassomevalidity,howmuchcanbelaidatObamasfeet,andhowmuchshouldbe
attributedtotheintractabilityoftheproblemshehasfaced?Wouldadifferentsortofpresidenthavehandledthedecadeschallenges
better,andifso,how?

ThefollowingexaminationofkeycrisesanddecisionsisbasedonconversationsIhavehadwithdozensofofficialsacrossthespan
ofObamaspresidencyandwith20mid-tosenior-levelofficials(pastandpresent,almostallonabackgroundbasis)interviewed
specificallyforthisarticle.

THELESSONOFLIBYA

InDecember2009,ObamajourneyedtoOslotoreceivetheNobelPeacePrize.Theawardwaspremature,tosaytheleast,buthe
usedhisacceptancespeechtolaydowntheprinciplesofaforeignpolicyhehopedtofollowasophisticatedgrapplingwiththe
tensionsbetweenidealismandrealism.ItwasadaringspeechforaPeacePrizerecipient.Tosaythatforcemaysometimesbe
necessaryisnotacalltocynicism,hesaid.Itisarecognitionofhistory,theimperfectionofman,andthelimitsofreason.
Nationsmustadheretostandardsthatgoverntheuseofforce,andajust,lastingpeacemustbebasedontheinherentrightsand
dignityofeveryindividual.Still,Americacannotactalone,exceptonmattersofvitalnationalinterest,andmereloftyrhetoric
abouthumanrightsonlysustainsacripplingstatusquo.Engagementwithrepressiveregimesmaylackthesatisfyingpurityof
indignation,butnorepressiveregimecanmovedownanewpathunlessithasthechoiceofanopendoor.

BenjaminRhodes,Obamasdeputynationalsecurityadviserforstrategiccommunications,said,Whenpeopleaskmetosummarize
[Obamas]foreignpolicy,Itellthemtotakeacloselookatthatspeech.AnotherformertopWhiteHouseofficialcalledita
templatetohowheapproachesproblems,aframeworkforhowhethinksaboutU.S.power.Whetherhefollowedthetemplate
howhegrappledinactionwiththetensionsherecognizedintheorywouldbe,byhisownstandard,themeasureofhispresidency.

TheearlyyearsofObamastermweretakenupwithchallengesinheritedfromtheBushadministration,especiallythewarsin
AfghanistanandIraq.Atthestartof2011,however,astringofnewproblemsemerged,asdomesticprotestsagainstauthoritarian
leadersbrokeoutacrosstheMiddleEast.TheBenAliregimeinTunisiafellinJanuary,andtheMubarakregimeinEgyptfollowedin
earlyFebruary.BylateFebruary,rebelsopposedtotheLibyandictatorMuammaral-Qaddafihadseizedcontrolincitiessuchas
Benghazi,andthedictatorsdaysseemednumbered.Butthenthetideofwarreversed,andQaddafisforcesmovedtocrushthe
uprising.
 ObamaattheNobelPeacePrizeawardceremonyinOslo,December2009.

Withtensofthousandsofcivilianlivesatrisk,theObamaadministration,whichhadcomeoutinsupportoftherebels,faceda
difficultchoice.ThemembersoftheArabLeaguewereunanimouslyimploringtheUnitedStatestogetinvolved.NATOallieswere
keentointerveneinsupportofthearmedrebels,andaUNSecurityCouncilresolutionwasintheworks.AtaNationalSecurity
Councilmeetingcalledtodiscussthecrisis,SecretaryofStateHillaryClinton,U.S.AmbassadortotheUNSusanRice,andsomeof
ObamasNSCstaffarguedforaction,citingmoralimperativesandtheprospectofatrulymultilateralforce.Butaccordingto
severalpeoplepresentatthemeeting,Pentagonofficialsopposedintervening,pointingoutthattheUnitedStateshadnovitalinterests
inLibyaandthatanyseriouscommitmentwouldgetWashingtonboggeddown,possiblyforyears.

Twooptionsweresetbeforethepresident:goinallthewayastheleaderofanalliance,ordontgoinatall.Obamasresponsewas
tocomeupwithathirdway,whichemergedashethoughtthroughtheproblemoutloud.Earlyon,hearticulatedtheprinciplesthat
wouldunderliewhatevercoursehechose:noU.S.bootsontheground,nomilitaryactionatallunlessithadalegalbasisanda
decentchanceofsucceeding,and,finally,anappropriatedivisionoflaborwithalliestheU.S.militarywouldprovideitsunique
capabilities(amongthemprecisionbombingandintelligencesharing),butU.S.allies,whohadafargreaterinterestintheconflicts
outcome,wouldassumethebruntofprotectingLibyanciviliansandrestoringorderafterthefighting.

InaninterviewatthetimewithTheNewYorker,anObamaadviser(whoseidentityremainsunknown)dubbedthisapproach
leadingfrombehind,atermthatwouldcomeinformuchderision.Butincontext,itmadesense,anditfitObamasoutlookonthe
roleandlimitsofmilitaryforce,thedistinctionbetweeninterestsandvitalinterests,andtheneedtoaligntheinstrumentsofpower
withtheintensityofthoseinterests.

Thefirstphaseoftheresultingoperationwasultimatelyasuccess.ThecombinationofU.S.airstrikesandintelligence,NATOair
support,andrebelmovementsonthegroundledtothedefeatofQaddafisforcesand(althoughthiswasnotanexplicitaimofthe
campaign)thekillingoftheLibyanleaderhimself.Butthesecondphasewasafailure:anewgovernmentwasneverfullyformed,
therebelfactionssquabblesdegeneratedintocivilwar,andthecountryssocialorder(suchasitwas)collapsed.

TheproblemwasthattheNATOalliesthathadpromisedtoleadthestabilizationphaseofapost-QaddafiLibyadidnotfollow
through,inpartbecausethisphaseturnedouttobemuchmoreviolentthantheyhadanticipated.Restoring(or,really,creating)
orderwouldhaverequiredarmedinterventionandpossiblyseriouscombatontheground,amissionforwhichEuropeanstates
hadlittlecapacityandlessappetite.

Obamarecognizedthefailure,acknowledginginhisSeptember2015speechtotheUNGeneralAssembly,Evenaswehelpedthe
Libyanpeoplebringanendtothereignofatyrant,ourcoalitioncouldhaveandshouldhavedonemoretofillavacuumleftbehind.
AndthelessonweighedonhimwhenconsideringhowtohandleasimilarcrisisinSyria.

ZohraBensemra/REUTERSLibyanrebelsattheairportinMisrata,May2011.
THESYRIANSINKHOLE

AstheArabSpringevolved,demonstrationsbrokeoutinDamascusagainstSyrianPresidentBasharal-Assad.Assadstruckback
withextremeforce,killingprotestersfirstbythehundreds,thenbythethousands.Gradually,arebelforcearose,andthecountry
plungedintocivilwar.WiththeUnitedStateshavingalreadyintervenedinLibyaundersimilarcircumstances,thequestionnaturally
arosewhetheritwouldinterveneinSyriaaswell.

InanNSCmeeting,Obamaspelledoutthedifferencesbetweenthetwoconflicts.Libyasfightinghadtakenplaceonanopen
desert,whichallowedforcleartargetingSyriawasenmeshedinurbanwarfare,withcivilians,rebels,andsoldiersintermingled.The
LibyanrebelshadhadachanceatformingacohesivegovernmenttherewerenosuchpossibilitiesinSyria.Nootheroutsidepower
wascallingontheUnitedStatestointervenethistimearound.Finally,theconflictwascascadingintoaproxywarforthe
regionwideSunni-Shiiteconfrontation.NotonlydidtheUnitedStateshavelittleatstakeinthisfight,butitalsohadlittleabilityto
influenceitsdirectionoroutcome.Accordingtoseveralattendeesofthemeeting,nobodyreallydisagreedwiththesepoints.

Andyettheadministrationhadaligneditselfwiththeseasonspopularuprisings.InMay,inaspeechofuncharacteristicexuberance,
Obamalikenedtheturmoiltopreviouserasofdemocraticrevolution.HespokewithparticularurgencyaboutSyria,proclaimingthat
Assadmuststopshootinghisownpeopleandallowhumanrightsmonitorstoenterthecountry.InAugust,Obamajoinedwiththe
leadersofFrance,Germany,andtheUnitedKingdomincallingonAssadtostepdown.Syriasrulerwasonthewrongsideof
history,Obamasaid,declaringthatthetimehascomeforPresidentAssadtostepaside.

Forthemostpart,ObamahasstayedtruetothetemplateofhisNobeladdress,keepingsightofthebigpictureas
othershavegottenlostintheshrubs.

Suchrhetoricwasdrivenbytwofactors.First,theaidesinObamasinnercirclefewofwhomknewanythingaboutMiddle
EasternpoliticsreallydidthinkAssadsregimewasnearingcollapse.Second,giventhatapparentfact,theyfeltitwasbesttoput
theadministrationpubliclyontherightsideofhistory,especiallysincealliednationswerecallingonObamatoshowleadership.

Therhetoricwasnotentirelyempty.Obamadidaskhismilitaryandintelligencechiefstocomeupwithplanstospeedhistoryalong,
andinthesummerof2012,CIADirectorDavidPetraeuslaidoutaschemetoarmagroupofmoderateSyrianrebels.Theplan,
whichPetraeushadformulatedwithSaudiPrinceBandarbinSultanandafewotherArabsecuritychiefs,calledforshippingsmall
arms,mainlyrifles,toasmall,selectgroupoftheSyrianopposition.Petraeusdidnotpromisethemoonheexplicitlysaidthatthese
rebelscouldnotoustAssadrightawayandthatthegoalwastoputpressureonAssad.IfyouresayingAssadmustgo,hewas
tellingthepresident,hereshowtheCIAcanhelp.TheplanhadthebackingofClinton,SecretaryofDefenseLeonPanetta,andthe
JointChiefsofStaff.Butthepresidentrejectedit.

GORANTOMASEVIC/REUTERS

AFreeSyrianArmyfighterinAleppo,August2012.

ObamawasnotopposedtotakingactionhehadaskedPetraeusandPanettaforoptions.Buthewasopposedtodoingsomething
merelyforthesakeofdoingsomething,andthePetraeusplanseemedtofallintothatcategory.Whoweretheserebels,heasked?
CouldtheUnitedStatesreallydistinguishthegoodonesfromthebadones?(Petraeusinsistedthathecould,butObamawas
unconvinced.)Iftheserebelsdidemergeasathreattotheregime,wouldIran,whichhadinvestedheavilyinAssad,simplystand
by,orwoulditintervene(asObamathoughtmorelikely)?

InNSCmeetings,severalattendeesrecall,Petraeusacknowledgedthatitmighttakeyearsfortherebelstomountaneffective
challengetoAssadsrule.Meanwhile,theCIAsplanmightthrowAssadpsychologicallyandgiveWashingtonskininthegame,a
pathtoinfluenceoverthelonghaul.ThiswasnotawinningargumentwithObama:hewaslookingforsomethingthathadachance
ofsucceedinginthenearterm,andhedidnotwantskininagameplayedinthequagmireofasectariancivilwar.WhilePetraeus
wasworkinguptheplan,ObamaaskedtheCIAtoproduceapaperonhowofteninthepastU.S.armshadsucceededinhelping
rebelsousthostilegovernments.Theanswer:notveryoften.Thatsealedthecase.

Althoughgroundedinlogicandhistory,therejectionofinterventioninSyriasetoffthefirstwavesofdiscontentoverObamas
foreignpolicyingeneralthenotionthathedidnotwanttouseforce,thathewasalwaysonthelookoutforargumentsthat
rationalizedthisdisinclination,thathetalkedboldbutfailedtofollowthrough,whichmadeallhiscommitmentsringhollow.

Lateron,astheself-proclaimedIslamicState(alsoknownasISIS)tookcontrolofvastswathsofIraqandSyria,Obamascritics
arguedthatifonlythepresidenthadacceptedPetraeusplan,ISISmightnothavefoundafoothold.Buttheclaimseemsfar-fetched
eventhoughafewofObamascloseadvisersallow,inretrospect,thatitmighthavebeenworthgivingPetraeusoptionachance.
Inanycase,twoyearslater,Obamaapprovedasimilarplan.However,whentheAmerican-backedrebelsstartedrackingup
victoriesonthebattlefieldandappearedtobeclosinginonAssad,Obamaspredictionofwhatwouldhappennextcametrue:the
IraniansredoubledtheirsupportforAssad,sendingQudsForcesoldierstofighttherebels.AndRussianPresidentVladimirPutin,
fearingthelossofMoscowssoleoutpostoutsidetheformerSovietUnion,senttanks,planes,andmissilestosupporttheSyrian
army.

REDLINE,REDFACE

SyriaiswhereObamasforeignpolicymetitsmostbrutalchallenge,andwherehistoolsfordealingwithcriseswords,logic,
persistentquestions,andsequentialproblemsolvingprovedinadequate.

Atleastfivetimesintheeight-monthspanbetweenAugust2012andApril2013,Obamaoradministrationofficialspubliclywarned
Assadthatusingchemicalweaponsagainstrebelsandprotesterswouldcrossaredline.Itwouldmarkagamechangerfromour
perspective,Obamaelaboratedononeoccasion.Therewouldbeenormousconsequences,hesaidonanother.Itwouldbe
totallyunacceptable,andAssadwouldbeheldaccountable.Yetdespitesuchutterances,saycloseaidesandofficials,the
presidentneverorderedupaplanforwhattodoifAssadcrossedtheline.

Then,onAugust21,2013,rocketshellscontainingsaringasslammedrebel-controlledareasintheDamascussuburbs,killingan
estimated1,500people.Theredlinehadbeencrossed.Obamaswiftlydecidedtoretaliate.Attackplansweredrawnup,mostof
themdesignedtodestroynotthechemicalstockpilesthemselves(explosionsofwhichmightspreadthegasfarandwide)butrather
themunitionsandfacilitiesrequiredtolaunchthemintobattle.Assadsregimewasnottheexplicittargetinanyoftheseplans,but
someWhiteHouseaidesthought,orhoped,thathisstrengthmighterodeasasideeffect.

PeteSouza/WhiteHouse/HandoutviaReuters
 ObamameetswithnationalsecuritystafftodiscussthesituationinSyriaintheWhiteHouseSituation
Room,August2013.

Obamaseemedtobeseriousaboutlaunchingthestrikes.Hisaideswereinstructedtophonelegislatorsandjournaliststomakesure
theyhadreadanunclassifiedintelligencereportthattheWhiteHousehadjustreleasedprovingthatAssadwasbehindthechemical
attacks.AUNresolutionbackingtheuseofforceinSyriawasunlikelyRussiaandpossiblyChinawouldvetoit.SoObamarallied
ArabandNATOnationstojoinintheattack,oratleasttoendorseit.Hegotnosuchsupport,exceptfromFranceandtheUnited
KingdombutthenBritishPrimeMinisterDavidCameronrequestedauthorizationforanattackfromParliament,whichvotedit
down.

OnAugust31,theNSCmetformorethantwohours.EveryonearoundthetableagreedthattheUnitedKingdomsbackpedaling,
althoughregrettable,shouldnotaffectthepresidentsdecisionandthatheshouldproceedwiththeairstrikes.Ateamoflawyers
advisedhimthathehadthelegalauthoritytodoso.Afterthemeeting,however,ObamafamouslytookawalkontheWhiteHouse
backlawnwithhischiefofstaff,DenisMcDonough,andwhenhecamebacktotheSituationRoom,heannouncedthathehad
decidedtoletCongressvoteonthequestion.

Allofthepresidentsaidesandofficialsweresurprised,andnotinagoodway.ButObamaexplainedthatheneededsome
institutionalbackingforsuchadrastic,riskymove.Abombingcampaignmightkillnearbycivilians,anditmighthavenoimpacton
Assad.WhatifAssaddoubleddownandlaunchedmoreattacks,chemicalorotherwise?IftheUnitedStatesansweredwithstill
moreairstrikes,itwouldriskgettingsuckedintoacivilwar,andifitdidnothing,thatwouldbeworsestill:Washingtonwouldlook
weaker,andAssadwouldemergestronger,thaniftheUnitedStateshaddonenothingtobeginwith.SomeWhiteHouseaideshad
viewedairstrikesasaone-offproposition,butPentagonofficialshadarguedduringtheNSCmeetingsthatifObamawentahead
withairstrikes(whichtheysupported),heshouldbepreparedforescalation.ObamasuspectedthePentagonwasright.Whatever
hedid,hisactions(orinaction)wouldsirecriticismanddisunitytheywouldreceivelittlesupportandcouldnotbesustained.

Tomanyaroundthetable,eachseparatepieceofObamasargumentmadesense,buttheoveralllogicdidnot.Maybeitwasabad
ideatoproceedwithairstrikes,butinthatcase,Obamashouldnothavedrawnthoseredlines:heshouldnothaverecitedthe
rationaleforairstrikestosomanydiplomats,journalists,andlegislatorsheshouldnothavetoldSecretaryofStateJohnKerryto
makeacaseforthebombings(inapowerfulspeechjusthoursbeforehechangedcourse)andaftermakingthisnewdecision,he
certainlyshouldnothavegoneaheadwithascheduledprime-timetelevisionaddressinwhichhedetailedAssadsperfidy,laidoutthe
nationalsecurityconcerns,claimedhehadthelegalauthoritytorespondwithunilateralairstrikesandthenannouncedthathewas
sendingthemattertoCongress.

Attimes,Obamahastalkedmoreboldlythanhehasacted,creatinganeedlessgapbetweenwordsanddeeds.

OneNSCofficialwhowasrelievedthatthestrikesdidnottakeplaceneverthelesssaid,Wepaidapriceforpullingback.The
perceptionamongpeopleintheregionwasthattheycouldntrelyonObamatopullthetrigger.AformertopWhiteHouseofficial
said,WhenpeopleseriouspeoplesayObamaisindecisiveanduncertain,theyretalkingaboutthisepisodewithSyria.

TheWhiteHouselobbiedCongresstopassaresolutionauthorizingtheuseofforce,butthetaskwasclearlyfutile:most
RepublicansdidnotwanttodoanyfavorsforObama,andmanyDemocratswereleeryofmilitaryaction.Intheend,Russiacame
totherescue.AtapressconferenceonSeptember9,KerrywasaskedifAssadcoulddoanythingtoavoidairstrikes.Kerryreplied,
Sure,hecouldturnovereverybitofhis[chemical]weaponstotheinternationalcommunitywithinthenextweek,withoutdelay,
adding,butheisntaboutto.Toeveryonesastonishment,RussianForeignMinisterSergeyLavrovrepliedthathecouldmakethat
happenandhedid.UnderRussianpressure,Assadsurrenderedverynearlyallofhischemicalweaponsfordestruction.

Obamaandhisaidesdeclaredvictory,notingthatthisdiplomaticsolutionwasmoreeffectivethanmilitarystrikeswouldhavebeen
andthatthethreatofthosestrikeswaswhathaddrivenRussiatopressureAssad.Thefirstclaimwasprobablytruethesecond
probablywasnot.ThefactisCongressseemedcertaintodefeatObamasmotionbeforeRussiasteppedin.ItispossiblethatPutin
neverbelievedthatObamawouldfeelboundbyCongress,thathewouldfindsomewaytolaunchthestrikesanyway.Butmore
pertinent,Russianleadershavealwaystakenpainstokeepweaponsofmassdestructionbiological,chemical,ornuclearoutof
theirallieshands:notsomuchbecausetheyabhorthoseweaponsasbecausetheyabhorthelossofcontrol.Moscowhaditsown
interestsinstrippingtheloosecannonAssadoftheseghastlyweapons,andsincetheredlinecrisishadforcedObamatofocuson
thechemicalsandnotonAssadsregime,thediplomaticsavewouldserveoneofRussiasvitalintereststhepreservationof
MoscowsonlyfootholdintheMiddleEast.

THEISISCRISIS

Theredlinefiascowasalowpointintheadministrationsforeignpolicy,butthetroublesinSyriawerehardlyover.Lessthanayear
afterthechemicalweaponssettlement,ISISwhichObamahadrecentlydismissedasaJVversionofalQaedastormedMosul,
thesecond-largestcityinIraq.TheU.S.-trainedIraqisoldiersfledatfirstcontact,andthearmedjihadistsbarreledontoRamadiand
Fallujahand,forawhile,cameperilouslyclosetoBaghdad.

ThejihadistshadstartedoutandwerelargelybasedinSyria,butObamafocusedhisanti-ISISstrategyonIraqbecausethatswhere
itmighthavesomeeffecttheUnitedStates,afterall,hadresources,airbases,andapartnershipofsortswithafunctioning
governmentinthecountryandithadnoneofthosethingsinSyria,whereObamaremainedproperlywaryofdivingintoa
sectariancivilwar.EvenbySeptember2014,whenObamarealizedthatSyriacouldntbeignored(itwas,afterall,theheadquarters
ofISISoperations,andheknewverywellthattheIraqi-Syrianborderwasporoustothepointofmeaningless),hestucktowhat
hisaidescalledanIraqfirststrategy.Americanairstrikes,whichhadlongbegunagainstISISforcesinIraq,wouldbeextendedto
Syria,butonlyoverthepathsthatISISusedtotravelbetweenthetwocountries.Obamaalsoannouncedaprogramtotrainand
equipmoderateSyrianrebelsonbasesinSaudiArabiabutnotedthattheywouldntbereadytofightISISformanymonths
clearly,Syriawasonthebackburner,atbest.

DaysafterObamasannouncement,ISISlaidsiegetoKobani,amainlyKurdishtownontheSyrian-Turkishborder.Thetownhad
nostrategicsignificance,butamassacrewasinthemaking.Morethanthat,ISISwassendingthousandsofjihadistsintothetown
forminganeasyconcentratedtarget,whichneitherthePentagonnorObamacouldresist.Obamaorderedmassiveairstrikes,
whichkilledanestimated2,000to3,000ISISfighters.

AnexplosioncausedbyanairstrikeinKobani,Syria,November2014.

Inanotherunexpectedfeatureofthebattle,KurdishfightersgatheredtostaveoffISIS,foughtverycapably,andrecapturedthe
town.ObamahadnotbeenopposedtogoingafterISISinsideSyriahejusthadnotseenasuitablepartnerthatcouldcarryoutthe
fightontheground.IntheSyrianKurds,hefoundone,andU.S.airstrikescontinued,oftenintandemwithKurdishground
assaults.Atthesametime,theCIAstartedcovertlyassistingagroupofrebelsinsouthernSyriawhosemainaimwastooverthrow
Assad.Again,ObamahadopposedPetraeusplantoarmsomerebelsnotbecausehewasagainstarmingrebelsbutbecausehedid
notseehowthatparticularplanorthoseparticularrebelswouldsucceed.Thenewplanseemedmoreplausible,inpartbecausethe
CIAandtheU.S.militaryhadgatheredalotmoreintelligenceandscopedoutreliableforcesoverthepreviousyear.(Aseparate$500
millionPentagonprogramtotrainandequipasmallgroupofnorthernSyrianrebelstofightISISprovedpubliclydisastrous:the
rebelsturnedouttobemoreinterestedinfightingAssadsarmythanISIS,takingthemoutofthefighttotraininSaudiArabiaonly
disorientedthem,andmoremilitantrebelskilledalmostallofthemontheirreentryintoSyria.)

Viewedpiecebypiece,tacticalmovebytacticalmove,Obamasoperationsappearedtobemakingprogress.Butforeignfighters
keptfloodingtheregion,ISISwasbarelybudgedaside,andalthoughAssadsarmyseemedimperiled,itwasstillquitelarge(at
around125,000troops)andrecoveredmuchofitsstrengthafterRussiasentintanksandjetfightersinSeptember2015.Russias
moveraisedthehacklesofsomeofObamascritics,whosawPutinastryingtorevivetheSovietempire.Obamadidntbite,and
wiselyso.AtanNSCmeeting,hecautionedagainstviewingRussiasinterventionthroughaColdWarprism.Wearenotatwarwith
RussiaoverSyria,hesaid,accordingtoofficialswhowereatthemeeting.Putinsvitalinterestinthishadmuchtodowithhisown
domesticpolitics,andanalarmedAmericanresponsewouldhaveplayedintohisgame.Finally,ObamadoubtedthattheRussian
militarycampaignwouldhavemuchimpactonthebattle.

Nonetheless,Obamawasstillreceptivetoattractiveoptionsforhisownmilitaryposture.TheSyrianKurdswererackingupmore
successes(andrequiringmoreprotectionfromTurkey,whichwaspoundingthemwithairstrikeswhileclaimingtobegoingafter
ISIS),andsoObamaapprovedplanstosendtheKurdsmoreammunitionandtodeployU.S.SpecialForcestojointheminraids
onISISstrongholds,secretmissionsthatresultedinsixfatalitiesbeforeObamaannouncedtheactionspublicly.

Obamahasakeenlegalmind,whichserveshimandthecountrywellwhenhepokesholesinspeciousargumentsforriskypolicies.
Butitalsoenableshimtorationalizehisownporouspositions:forinstance,thatconductingjointraidsfallsinthecategoryofadvise
andassist,notbootsontheground.Hecanalsomakefirmassurancesthathewillnotpushthesegroundforcesanyfurther,
ignoringthathehaslaidthegroundworkandsetthelogicforhissuccessorintheWhiteHousetoescalatethefight,ifheorsheis
soinclined.(Nottodrawpreciseparallels,butinasimilarvein,PresidentJohnF.KennedyfirmlyresistedpressurefromtheJoint
ChiefsofStafftodeploycombattroopstoVietnamyetexpandedthescopeandnumbersofadvisersthere,leavingPresident
LyndonJohnsontobelievehewasfollowinginhispredecessorsfootstepswhenhepoured500,000U.S.troopsintothefight.)

SyriaiswhereObamastoolsfordealingwithcrisesprovedinadequate.

UmitBektas/REUTERSAblackflagbelongingtoISISnearKobani,October2014.
THESEARCHFORORDER

WhathasbeenmissinginObamasSyriapolicy,inallitsphases,isacoherentstrategy.HistwoaimsdefeatingISISand
pressuringAssadtostepdownareinsomewayscontradictory.AssadscontinuedreignhasbeenamagnetforforeignSunni
fighterstojoinISIS.Butintheshortrun,Assadsarmy,ifproperlydirected,couldbethemostpotentanti-ISISforcesecond
perhapsonlytoIran,whichhasbeensendingmembersofitseliteQudsForcetoprotectAssadsregime.Obamahasbeen
constrainedfromforminganovertalliancewithAssadorIran,inpartbecausehehasneededSunnialliesEgypt,Turkey,andthe
GulfstatestodelegitimizeanddefeattheSunniradicalsofISISifhebondedwithShiiteIranoritsclientAssad,thosecountries
mightdropoutofthecoalition.

ThereinliestheheartoftheproblemnotonlywithObamasstrategyagainstISISbutwithanyU.S.presidentsstabatsucha
strategy.IfallthecountriesthatfearedandloathedISISwhichistosay,almostallthecountriesintheregionjoinedforces,ISIS
wouldcrumbleinshortorder.Buteachofthosecountrieshasmorefearandloathingforatleastoneofitspotentialallies(Turkey
fortheKurdsandSaudiArabiaforIran,forexample).Forminganeffectivecoalitionhasthereforebeenallbutimpossibleafact
thatISIScommandershaveshrewdlyexploited.

AsmanyofObamascriticscontend,acoherentregionalstrategynotjustaseriesofpiecemealresponsestocrisesisneededto
solvethisproblem.Butwhatisthisregionalstrategy?Whoshouldleadit?Whatincentivesmightlurethepotentialcoalitionsplayers
tosubordinatetheirindividualintereststothelargergoal?(InOctober,ObamadroppedhisreluctanceandinvitedIranandRussiato
jointalksinViennatodiscussapoliticalsolutiontotheSyriancrisisandajointfightagainstISIS.Theprospectsseemeddim,until
ontheveryeveoftheconferenceISISagentsmountedcoordinatedterroristattacksinParis.Althoughtheoddsremainlong,a
plausiblepathtoasettlementopenedup.Obamaseemstohaverecognized,alongwithothers,thattranscendingthesectariandivide
ratherthanaccommodatingitandformingallianceswithrivalsagainstlarger,commonthreatsistheonlywaytowardapeaceful
transition.)

ThesecomplexitiesaresymptomaticofalargerphenomenonthataccountsforthesurgeofviolencethroughouttheMiddleEast:the
breakdownofthecolonialorderimposedattheendofWorldWarI.Thisorder,withitsartificialbordersdesignedtosplitor
suppresstribalidentities,wouldhavecollapsedafterWorldWarII(alongwiththeBritishandFrenchcolonies)butforthedeep
freezeimposedbytheColdWar.WhentheSovietUnionimploded,theColdWartoodissolved,alongwiththeinternationalsecurity
systemthatithadcreatedandsustainedfornearlyhalfacentury.Withthesubsequentdiffusionofglobalpowerandfragmentation
ofpowerblocs,thecollapseoftheMiddleEastsbordersandauthoritiesresumedaprocessacceleratedbyPresidentGeorgeW.
Bushs2003invasionofIraq,whichdisruptedthebalanceofpoweramongnations,sects,andtribesthathadkeptanuneasypeace
betweenShiitesandSunnis,notonlywithinIraqbutacrosstheregion,asthedisruptionsripplesspread.

SomeofObamascriticsclaimthatifhehadfoundawaytokeep10,000AmericantroopsinIraqinsteadofgoingthroughwitha
completewithdrawalin2011,therenewalofsectarianviolenceandtheriseofISIStofillthesubsequentpowervacuumwould
neverhavehappened.Butthisisextremelyunlikely,giventhatinanearliereraittookcloseto170,000U.S.combattroopsusing
extraordinarymeasurestostemasimilartide,andeventhentheywereabletodosoonlytemporarily.Inanycase,Obamahadno
choiceinthematter.Thestatus-of-forcesagreement(SOFA)thatBushsignedin2008demanded,AlltheUnitedStatesForcesshall
withdrawfromallIraqiterritorynolaterthanDecember31,2011.Obamawas,infact,amenabletokeeping5,000troopsinIraq
forthelonghaulandsentemissariestoBaghdadtoseeifanextensioncouldbenegotiated,butrevisionstotheSOFAincludinga
U.S.demandthatAmericantroopsenjoyimmunityfromIraqilaw,requiredparliamentaryapproval,andnofactionsintheIraqi
parliament,exceptperhapstheKurds,wouldvotefortheAmericanstostay.(Obamahasbeenabletosendmilitaryforcesbackto
IraqonlybecausetheSOFAexpiredafterthreeyears.)

AsforAfghanistan,theotherwarthatObamapromisedandtriedtoend,itkeepsragingaswell.InOctober2015,reversingan
earlierpolicytowithdrawallU.S.troopsfromthecountrybytheendofhisterm,Obamaannouncedthat5,500wouldremainthere
tocontinuetrainingandequippingAfghanforcesandtoconductcounterterroristoperations.

BAZRATNER/REUTERSU.S.soldiersfireahowitzerartillerypieceinKandaharProvince,Afghanistan,June
2011.

ObamaannouncedthischangesoonafterTalibanfighterstookoverthenortherncityofKunduz,buthehadmadethedecisionafew
monthsearlier,accordingtoaseniorcounterterrorismofficial.ThenewAfghanpresident,AshrafGhani,hadaskedObamanotto
withdrawallU.S.troops,signedabilateralsecurityagreementgivingU.S.forceslegalprotections(anaccordthathispredecessor,
HamidKarzai,hadrefusedtoconsider),andpromisedreformstobroadeninclusivityandcrackdownoncorruption.Meanwhile,
terroristgroupsstillflourishedacrosstheborderwithPakistan.NooneintheNSCopposedsustainingacounterterroristforceon
somebaseintheregionherewasGhaniofferingthreeexistingbases.AninteragencystudyconductedbyGeneralMartinDempsey,
thenthechairmanoftheJointChiefsofStaff,concludedthatthemissioncouldbesupportedwith5,500troops.Andsothedecision
wasmade.Kunduz(whichAfghansoldiersquicklyrecaptured)wasthenewspegthatpreemptedpoliticalobjections.

ThetragedyofObamaspresidencyisthat,fromthebeginning,hehaswantedtoshiftawayfromthestagnantbattlefieldsinand
aroundtheMiddleEastanddevotemoreattentiontotheAsia-Pacificregion,withitsprospectsfordynamicgrowth,trade,and,in
theformofChina,anexpansionistpowerthatneedstobeatoncecontainedmilitarilyandluredintotheglobaleconomy.Thisfocus
onAsiacametobecalledthepivot,orrebalancing,butObamahadrecognizeditsappealanddiscusseditasfarbackashis
2008presidentialcampaign.Heunderstood,andstilldoes,thatthisiswheretheUnitedStatesfutureinterestsliebutthenever-
endingcrisesoftheancientworldkeeppullinghimbackin.

LIMITEDINTERESTS,LIMITEDRISKS

AstheISISimbrogliowidened,yetanothercrisiserupted,thistimeinUkraine.AfterPutinbribedUkrainianPresidentViktor
YanukovychwithanaidpackagetostophimfromsigninganassociationagreementwiththeEuropeanUnion,popularprotests
brokeoutinKiev.WhenYanukovychcrackeddown,theprotestswidened,andhewasultimatelyforcedtoflee.Putinrespondedby
sendingRussianforcestoseizetheCrimeanPeninsulaandsupportasecessionistrebellionineasternUkraine.
InNSCmeetingsheldtodecidehowtorespondtoRussiasmove,Obamaquicklyapprovedascriptofdenunciation,reinforcements
ofU.S.militaryexercisesinandaroundeasternEuropesNATOallies(especiallytheBalticstates),andastringofeconomic
sanctions.

SomePentagonofficialswantedtogofurtherandsupplytheUkrainianarmywithlethaldefensiveweapons,especiallyTOW
antitankmissiles.AccordingtoNSCofficials,VicePresidentJoeBidenstronglyendorsedthisposition,sayingthattheUnitedStates
hadamoralobligationtohelptheUkrainiansdefendthemselves,aswellasastrategicinterestinmakingPutinpayforhislandgrab
andindeterringhimfromgoingfurther.(NooneinanyNSCmeeting,however,advocatedsendingUkraineoffensiveweaponsor
deployingU.S.troopstothecountry.)

CemOksuz/Pool/REUTERS

ObamatalkswithRussianPresidentVladimirPutinandU.S.NationalSecurityAdviserSusanRice
duringtheG20Leaders'SummitinAntalya,Turkey,November2015.

Intheend,Obamaapprovedtheprovisionofnonlethalmilitaryassistance,suchasnight-visionandradarequipment,andtrainingfor
UkrainesNationalGuard.Beyondthat,hewasopposed.TheUnitedStateshadinterestsinUkraine,butnotvitalinterests.There
werereasonstwopreviouspresidentshadconsidered,thendecidedagainst,invitingKievsleaderstojoinNATO.First,pollshad
suggestedthatlessthanhalfofUkrainianswantedmembership.Second,RussiasinterestsinUkraine,unliketheUnitedStates,
werevital:RussiaandUkrainesharedaborderandalonghistoryoftrade,culturalexchange,andevencommonstatehood.No
RussianleaderwouldstandbyasUkrainedriftedtoofarfromMoscowsorbit.

Obamalikestolookaheadtwoorthreesteps.(Hiscriticshaveseenthisasatechniqueforavoidingtheuseofforceothersseeitas
amethodofrationaldecision-making.)MoscowcouldandwouldmatchorsurpassanylethalweaponsthattheWestsuppliedto
Kiev.Thenwhat?IfWashingtonsentstillmorearms,itwouldriskgettingsuckedintoanarmsrace,andtheviolencewould
intensify.IftheUnitedStatesdidnotrespondinkind,theWestwouldhavelostthecontestObamawouldlookweaker,andRussia
stronger,thanifhehadnotsentanyarmsinthefirstplace.

ThiswasObamasfirstprincipleinalldiscussionsaboutthecrisis:hewasnotgoingtoriskawarwithRussiaforthesakeof
Ukraine.Atonemeeting,hesaid,IfIwantedtoinvadeCanadaorMexico,noonecoulddomuchaboutit.Thesamewastrueof
PutinandUkraine.

Still,Obamaputahighvalueonenforcinginternationalnorms,oneofwhichwastheinviolabilityofborders.Hefeltitnecessaryto
makeRussiapayforitsviolationthequestionwashow.Militaryescalation,inthiscontext,wasagameRussiawouldwin,but
escalationofsanctionswasonetheUnitedStatescouldwin,ifObamacouldkeepEuropeanstatesonboard.Thiswasachallenge,
formanyEuropeancountriesweremorereliantonRussianenergysuppliesthantheUnitedStateswasandthereforemorevulnerable
toeconomicreprisalsfromRussia.TheywerealsodeadsetagainstriskingwaroverUkraine.IfObamawentupthemilitaryladder,
heknewtheywoulddropoutofthesanctionsregime.

Obamaskeenlegalmindallowshimtorationalizehisownporouspositions.

Atleastthroughthefallof2015,Obamaspolicyhasworked.DespitePutinseffortstosplitthetransatlanticalliance,itsmembers
haveheldtightonthesanctions,andthecease-firenegotiatedinMinskinFebruaryhasheld,too.PutinslikelygoalinUkrainewas
toweakenthecountryscentralgovernmentandkeepitfrommovingclosertotheWest.Atthat,hehassucceeded.IfObamaand
thewesternEuropeannationshadwantedtostrikebackonthatfront,tensofbillionsofdollarsineconomicaidwouldhavemeanta
lotmorethanafewhundredantitankmissiles.ButbeyondarelativelypaltryInternationalMonetaryFundgrant,nooneseemedto
wanttogodownthatroad.

PATIENCEANDPRAGMATISM

SohowdoesObamasrecordstackup?Thepresidenthasbeenbesiegedbyforeignpolicycrises,constrainedbydiminished
Americanpower,andpressuredbyopponentsathomeandalliesabroadtotakeactionandshowleadership,evenwhendealingwith
intractableproblems.Hehaslearnedonthejob,withhisinstinctsforcautionreinforcedbytheill-fatedLibyanintervention.Andhe
has,attimes,talkedmoreboldlythanhehasacted,creatinganeedlessgapbetweenwordsanddeeds.

Andyetforthemostpart,hehasstayedtruetothetemplateofhisNobeladdress,keepingsightofthebigpictureasothershave
gottenlostintheshrubs.Hiscautionaboutembarkingonunnecessarymilitaryadventuresanddesiretoavoidescalatorymilitary
spiralsseemwise.Obamahasalsoprovedremarkablypatientwithdrawn-outdiplomaticnegotiations,eventhoseunlikelytobear
fruit.Someofthese,suchastheIsraeli-Palestinianpeacetalks,havepredictablygonenowhere,butothers,suchastheopeningto
CubaandthenucleardealwithIran,havebeenstrikinglysuccessful.

Thesuccessesandfailuresstem,inpart,fromthedoggedoptimismofObamassecond-termsecretaryofstate,Kerry.Itisdoubtful
thatKerrysmorecautiouspredecessor,Clinton,ormostotherpastsecretariesofstate,wouldhavestuckwiththenucleartalks
withIranforaslongasKerrydidbutneitherwouldshehavespentsomuchtimeandefforttryingtojump-startamoribund
MiddleEastpeaceprocess.

OnedownsidetoKerrysvisionofhisjob,asspecialenvoytotheworldsmosthopelesslogjams,isthatitleavesmuchoftherest
oftheworldabitanxious.ThishasbeenespeciallytrueoftheUnitedStatesalliesinAsiamostofallJapan,whoseleaders
demandconstanthandholding.DuringObamasfirstterm,KurtCampbell,theassistantsecretaryofstateforEastAsianandPacific
affairs,phonedhiscounterpartinTokyoeverydayandmetface-to-facewiththeJapaneseambassadorthreetimesaweek.Officials
whodealwithAsianaffairssaythatafterCampbellleft,andKerryturnedtheStateDepartmentsfocusalmostexclusivelytohigh-
profilepeacemissions,Tokyofeltabandoned.

Still,thishardlyamountedtoacrisis.First,whenBeijingstartedflexingitsnavalmusclesintheSouthChinaSea,Japan(and
AustraliaandSouthKorea)clungeverclosertoWashington,howeverfrustrateditfeltattimes.Second,anotherbigpartofthe
UnitedStatesrelationswithAsiainvolvessimplyshowingupandalthoughtheassistantsecretarymaynotbecallingasoften,
ObamaandKerryshowupatalltheAsiansecurityandeconomicsummits.Anxietyaboutabandonmentremainsithasbeenafactor
fordecades,atleastsincetheUnitedStatespulledoutofVietnamandsecretlyreachedouttoChinaduringthepresidencyofRichard
Nixon.ButObamasmissteps,whichhavebotheredalliesintheMiddleEast,havenotweighedatallonthoseinEastAsia.Daniel
Sneider,theassociatedirectorforresearchattheWalterH.ShorensteinAsia-PacificResearchCenteratStanfordUniversity,hasmet
privatelywithdozensofpoliticalandmilitaryleadersfromJapanandSouthKorea.Hesays,Iveneverheardanyofthemsaya
wordabouttheredlineinSyria.

OnAugust5,2015,thepresidentdeliveredaspiritedspeechatAmericanUniversitydefendingthenucleardealthatheandfiveother
worldpowershadnegotiatedwithIran.Severaltimes,hequotedKennedysfamousAmericanUniversityspeechin1963callingfor
anendtotheColdWarmindsetandanewstrategybasedonapracticalandattainablepeace,onebasednotonasudden
revolutioninhumannaturebutonagradualevolutioninhumaninstitutionsonaseriesofconcreteactionsandeffective
agreements.

Laterthatday,Obamaheldanon-the-recordroundtablediscussionwithtencolumnistsintheWhiteHouse.Whenmyturncameto
askaquestion,InotedthatKennedyhaddeliveredhisspeechafterseveralcrisesinwhichherealizedthathisadviserswereoften
wrongandthatheshouldplacemoretrustinhisowninstincts.Whatlessons,IaskedObama,hadhelearnedinhiscrises?What
decisionsmighthehavemadedifferently,hadheknownthenwhatheknowsnow?Heanswered:

IwouldsaythatIhavebeenconsistentinmybroadviewofhowAmericanpowershouldbedeployedandtheview
thatweunderestimateourpowerwhenwerestrictittojustourmilitarypower....Theresnodoubtthat,aftersixand
ahalfyears,IamthatmuchmoreconfidentintheassessmentsImakeandcanprobablyseearoundthecornersfaster
thanIdidwhenIfirstcameintooffice.Themapisntalwaystheterritory,andyouhavetokindofwalkthroughitto
getafeelforit.

IntermsofdecisionsImake,IdothinkthatIhaveabettersenseofhowmilitaryactioncanresultinunintended
consequences.AndIamconfirmedinmybeliefthatmuchofthetime,wearemakingjudgmentsbasedonpercentages,
and...therearealwaysgoingtobesomecomplications.

AndsomaybeatthesametimeasImmoreconfidenttoday,Imalsomorehumble.Andthatspartofthereasonwhy,
whenIseeasituationlikethisone[thepossibilityofanucleardealwithIran],wherewecanachieveanobjective
withaunifiedworldbehindusandwepreserveourhedgeagainstitsnotworkingout,Ithinkitwouldbefoolish
eventragicforustopassuponthatopportunity.

ThisarticlehasbeenupdatedtocorrectthedatethatPresidentObamadeliveredaspeechabouttheIrannucleardealatAmerican
University.ItwasAugust5,2015,notApril5.
 From: RobertOtto<robertotto25@gmail.com>
Senttime: 01/04/201612:23:04PM
To: FionaHill<fhill@brookings.edu>
Subject: FredKaplan:HowObamaMakesForeignPolicy|ForeignAffairs

http://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/2015-12-07/obamas-way?cid=emc-Dec15_Remail_A-content-
123115&sp_mid=50368504&sp_rid=cm9iZXJ0b3R0bzI1QGdtYWlsLmNvbQS2&spMailingID=50368504&spUserID=
OTQ5NTcwNTM2OTIS1&spJobID=824531828&spReportId=ODI0NTMxODI4S0

Obama'sWay
OnJanuary28,2009,barelyaweekintohispresidency,BarackObamametwiththeU.S.militarystopgeneralsandadmiralson
theirownturf,insidethetank,theJointChiefsofStaffsconferenceroomonthesecondfloorofthePentagon.Aseniorofficial
recalledthenewpresidentasremarkablyconfidentcomposed,relaxed,butalsodeferential,nottryingtoacttoomuchthe
commanderinchief.Obamawalkedaroundtheroom,introducinghimselftoeveryonehethankedthemandtheentirearmed
forcesfortheirserviceandsacrificethenhesatdownforafreewheelingdiscussionoftheworldschallenges,regionbyregion,
crisisbycrisis.Hewasthemaninfull,theofficialsaid,fluentoneveryissue,butmorethanthatasurprisetotheofficers,who
hadbeenleeryofthisyoung,inexperiencedDemocrathedisplayedadeepstreakofrealism.

Atonepoint,Obamaremarkedthathewasnotthesortofpersonwhodrivesdownastreetwishinghecouldparkwhereverhe
likes.Ifhesawanopenspot,evenonethatrequiredsometrickyparallelparking,hewouldbefinewithsqueezingintoit.Obamas
meaningwasclear:hehadbeendealtabadhand(twounpopularwars,alienatedallies,thedeepestrecessionindecades),buthe
wouldfindawaytodealwiththeworldasitwas.

Sevenyearslater,manyofficersanddefenseofficials,includingsomewhoweresoimpressedwithObamaatthestart,lookbackat
hispresidencyasfollowingadifferentstyleofgoverning.TheylaudthehistoricaccomplishmentstheIrannucleardeal,the
openingtoCuba,theTrans-PacificPartnership,theprevention(sofar)ofanotherterroristattackonAmericansoilandthey
acknowledgethathehasoftentriedtomakethebestofbadchoices.Buttoooften,theysay,hehasavoidedtakingaction,waiting
forconditionstogetbettercirclingtheblockand,inhisownmetaphor,waitingforabetterparkingspottoopenup.

ThisisacommoncritiqueofObamasforeignpolicy:thatheevadesharddecisions,thatheisallergictomilitaryforceifitrisks
Americancasualtiesorescalation,thatthereisoftenamismatchbetweenhiswordsandhisdeeds.Thisisapattern,oneretired
four-stargeneralsaid.Heissuessternwarnings,thendoesnothing.ItdamagesAmericancredibility.

Isthechargetrue?Andtotheextentthatithassomevalidity,howmuchcanbelaidatObamasfeet,andhowmuchshouldbe
attributedtotheintractabilityoftheproblemshehasfaced?Wouldadifferentsortofpresidenthavehandledthedecadeschallenges
better,andifso,how?

ThefollowingexaminationofkeycrisesanddecisionsisbasedonconversationsIhavehadwithdozensofofficialsacrossthespan
ofObamaspresidencyandwith20mid-tosenior-levelofficials(pastandpresent,almostallonabackgroundbasis)interviewed
specificallyforthisarticle.

THELESSONOFLIBYA

InDecember2009,ObamajourneyedtoOslotoreceivetheNobelPeacePrize.Theawardwaspremature,tosaytheleast,buthe
usedhisacceptancespeechtolaydowntheprinciplesofaforeignpolicyhehopedtofollowasophisticatedgrapplingwiththe
tensionsbetweenidealismandrealism.ItwasadaringspeechforaPeacePrizerecipient.Tosaythatforcemaysometimesbe
necessaryisnotacalltocynicism,hesaid.Itisarecognitionofhistory,theimperfectionofman,andthelimitsofreason.
Nationsmustadheretostandardsthatgoverntheuseofforce,andajust,lastingpeacemustbebasedontheinherentrightsand
dignityofeveryindividual.Still,Americacannotactalone,exceptonmattersofvitalnationalinterest,andmereloftyrhetoric
abouthumanrightsonlysustainsacripplingstatusquo.Engagementwithrepressiveregimesmaylackthesatisfyingpurityof
indignation,butnorepressiveregimecanmovedownanewpathunlessithasthechoiceofanopendoor.

BenjaminRhodes,Obamasdeputynationalsecurityadviserforstrategiccommunications,said,Whenpeopleaskmetosummarize
[Obamas]foreignpolicy,Itellthemtotakeacloselookatthatspeech.AnotherformertopWhiteHouseofficialcalledita
templatetohowheapproachesproblems,aframeworkforhowhethinksaboutU.S.power.Whetherhefollowedthetemplate
howhegrappledinactionwiththetensionsherecognizedintheorywouldbe,byhisownstandard,themeasureofhispresidency.

TheearlyyearsofObamastermweretakenupwithchallengesinheritedfromtheBushadministration,especiallythewarsin
AfghanistanandIraq.Atthestartof2011,however,astringofnewproblemsemerged,asdomesticprotestsagainstauthoritarian
leadersbrokeoutacrosstheMiddleEast.TheBenAliregimeinTunisiafellinJanuary,andtheMubarakregimeinEgyptfollowedin
earlyFebruary.BylateFebruary,rebelsopposedtotheLibyandictatorMuammaral-Qaddafihadseizedcontrolincitiessuchas
Benghazi,andthedictatorsdaysseemednumbered.Butthenthetideofwarreversed,andQaddafisforcesmovedtocrushthe
uprising.
 ObamaattheNobelPeacePrizeawardceremonyinOslo,December2009.

Withtensofthousandsofcivilianlivesatrisk,theObamaadministration,whichhadcomeoutinsupportoftherebels,faceda
difficultchoice.ThemembersoftheArabLeaguewereunanimouslyimploringtheUnitedStatestogetinvolved.NATOallieswere
keentointerveneinsupportofthearmedrebels,andaUNSecurityCouncilresolutionwasintheworks.AtaNationalSecurity
Councilmeetingcalledtodiscussthecrisis,SecretaryofStateHillaryClinton,U.S.AmbassadortotheUNSusanRice,andsomeof
ObamasNSCstaffarguedforaction,citingmoralimperativesandtheprospectofatrulymultilateralforce.Butaccordingto
severalpeoplepresentatthemeeting,Pentagonofficialsopposedintervening,pointingoutthattheUnitedStateshadnovitalinterests
inLibyaandthatanyseriouscommitmentwouldgetWashingtonboggeddown,possiblyforyears.

Twooptionsweresetbeforethepresident:goinallthewayastheleaderofanalliance,ordontgoinatall.Obamasresponsewas
tocomeupwithathirdway,whichemergedashethoughtthroughtheproblemoutloud.Earlyon,hearticulatedtheprinciplesthat
wouldunderliewhatevercoursehechose:noU.S.bootsontheground,nomilitaryactionatallunlessithadalegalbasisanda
decentchanceofsucceeding,and,finally,anappropriatedivisionoflaborwithalliestheU.S.militarywouldprovideitsunique
capabilities(amongthemprecisionbombingandintelligencesharing),butU.S.allies,whohadafargreaterinterestintheconflicts
outcome,wouldassumethebruntofprotectingLibyanciviliansandrestoringorderafterthefighting.

InaninterviewatthetimewithTheNewYorker,anObamaadviser(whoseidentityremainsunknown)dubbedthisapproach
leadingfrombehind,atermthatwouldcomeinformuchderision.Butincontext,itmadesense,anditfitObamasoutlookonthe
roleandlimitsofmilitaryforce,thedistinctionbetweeninterestsandvitalinterests,andtheneedtoaligntheinstrumentsofpower
withtheintensityofthoseinterests.

Thefirstphaseoftheresultingoperationwasultimatelyasuccess.ThecombinationofU.S.airstrikesandintelligence,NATOair
support,andrebelmovementsonthegroundledtothedefeatofQaddafisforcesand(althoughthiswasnotanexplicitaimofthe
campaign)thekillingoftheLibyanleaderhimself.Butthesecondphasewasafailure:anewgovernmentwasneverfullyformed,
therebelfactionssquabblesdegeneratedintocivilwar,andthecountryssocialorder(suchasitwas)collapsed.

TheproblemwasthattheNATOalliesthathadpromisedtoleadthestabilizationphaseofapost-QaddafiLibyadidnotfollow
through,inpartbecausethisphaseturnedouttobemuchmoreviolentthantheyhadanticipated.Restoring(or,really,creating)
orderwouldhaverequiredarmedinterventionandpossiblyseriouscombatontheground,amissionforwhichEuropeanstates
hadlittlecapacityandlessappetite.

Obamarecognizedthefailure,acknowledginginhisSeptember2015speechtotheUNGeneralAssembly,Evenaswehelpedthe
Libyanpeoplebringanendtothereignofatyrant,ourcoalitioncouldhaveandshouldhavedonemoretofillavacuumleftbehind.
AndthelessonweighedonhimwhenconsideringhowtohandleasimilarcrisisinSyria.

ZohraBensemra/REUTERSLibyanrebelsattheairportinMisrata,May2011.
THESYRIANSINKHOLE

AstheArabSpringevolved,demonstrationsbrokeoutinDamascusagainstSyrianPresidentBasharal-Assad.Assadstruckback
withextremeforce,killingprotestersfirstbythehundreds,thenbythethousands.Gradually,arebelforcearose,andthecountry
plungedintocivilwar.WiththeUnitedStateshavingalreadyintervenedinLibyaundersimilarcircumstances,thequestionnaturally
arosewhetheritwouldinterveneinSyriaaswell.

InanNSCmeeting,Obamaspelledoutthedifferencesbetweenthetwoconflicts.Libyasfightinghadtakenplaceonanopen
desert,whichallowedforcleartargetingSyriawasenmeshedinurbanwarfare,withcivilians,rebels,andsoldiersintermingled.The
LibyanrebelshadhadachanceatformingacohesivegovernmenttherewerenosuchpossibilitiesinSyria.Nootheroutsidepower
wascallingontheUnitedStatestointervenethistimearound.Finally,theconflictwascascadingintoaproxywarforthe
regionwideSunni-Shiiteconfrontation.NotonlydidtheUnitedStateshavelittleatstakeinthisfight,butitalsohadlittleabilityto
influenceitsdirectionoroutcome.Accordingtoseveralattendeesofthemeeting,nobodyreallydisagreedwiththesepoints.

Andyettheadministrationhadaligneditselfwiththeseasonspopularuprisings.InMay,inaspeechofuncharacteristicexuberance,
Obamalikenedtheturmoiltopreviouserasofdemocraticrevolution.HespokewithparticularurgencyaboutSyria,proclaimingthat
Assadmuststopshootinghisownpeopleandallowhumanrightsmonitorstoenterthecountry.InAugust,Obamajoinedwiththe
leadersofFrance,Germany,andtheUnitedKingdomincallingonAssadtostepdown.Syriasrulerwasonthewrongsideof
history,Obamasaid,declaringthatthetimehascomeforPresidentAssadtostepaside.

Forthemostpart,ObamahasstayedtruetothetemplateofhisNobeladdress,keepingsightofthebigpictureas
othershavegottenlostintheshrubs.

Suchrhetoricwasdrivenbytwofactors.First,theaidesinObamasinnercirclefewofwhomknewanythingaboutMiddle
EasternpoliticsreallydidthinkAssadsregimewasnearingcollapse.Second,giventhatapparentfact,theyfeltitwasbesttoput
theadministrationpubliclyontherightsideofhistory,especiallysincealliednationswerecallingonObamatoshowleadership.

Therhetoricwasnotentirelyempty.Obamadidaskhismilitaryandintelligencechiefstocomeupwithplanstospeedhistoryalong,
andinthesummerof2012,CIADirectorDavidPetraeuslaidoutaschemetoarmagroupofmoderateSyrianrebels.Theplan,
whichPetraeushadformulatedwithSaudiPrinceBandarbinSultanandafewotherArabsecuritychiefs,calledforshippingsmall
arms,mainlyrifles,toasmall,selectgroupoftheSyrianopposition.Petraeusdidnotpromisethemoonheexplicitlysaidthatthese
rebelscouldnotoustAssadrightawayandthatthegoalwastoputpressureonAssad.IfyouresayingAssadmustgo,hewas
tellingthepresident,hereshowtheCIAcanhelp.TheplanhadthebackingofClinton,SecretaryofDefenseLeonPanetta,andthe
JointChiefsofStaff.Butthepresidentrejectedit.

GORANTOMASEVIC/REUTERS

AFreeSyrianArmyfighterinAleppo,August2012.

ObamawasnotopposedtotakingactionhehadaskedPetraeusandPanettaforoptions.Buthewasopposedtodoingsomething
merelyforthesakeofdoingsomething,andthePetraeusplanseemedtofallintothatcategory.Whoweretheserebels,heasked?
CouldtheUnitedStatesreallydistinguishthegoodonesfromthebadones?(Petraeusinsistedthathecould,butObamawas
unconvinced.)Iftheserebelsdidemergeasathreattotheregime,wouldIran,whichhadinvestedheavilyinAssad,simplystand
by,orwoulditintervene(asObamathoughtmorelikely)?

InNSCmeetings,severalattendeesrecall,Petraeusacknowledgedthatitmighttakeyearsfortherebelstomountaneffective
challengetoAssadsrule.Meanwhile,theCIAsplanmightthrowAssadpsychologicallyandgiveWashingtonskininthegame,a
pathtoinfluenceoverthelonghaul.ThiswasnotawinningargumentwithObama:hewaslookingforsomethingthathadachance
ofsucceedinginthenearterm,andhedidnotwantskininagameplayedinthequagmireofasectariancivilwar.WhilePetraeus
wasworkinguptheplan,ObamaaskedtheCIAtoproduceapaperonhowofteninthepastU.S.armshadsucceededinhelping
rebelsousthostilegovernments.Theanswer:notveryoften.Thatsealedthecase.

Althoughgroundedinlogicandhistory,therejectionofinterventioninSyriasetoffthefirstwavesofdiscontentoverObamas
foreignpolicyingeneralthenotionthathedidnotwanttouseforce,thathewasalwaysonthelookoutforargumentsthat
rationalizedthisdisinclination,thathetalkedboldbutfailedtofollowthrough,whichmadeallhiscommitmentsringhollow.

Lateron,astheself-proclaimedIslamicState(alsoknownasISIS)tookcontrolofvastswathsofIraqandSyria,Obamascritics
arguedthatifonlythepresidenthadacceptedPetraeusplan,ISISmightnothavefoundafoothold.Buttheclaimseemsfar-fetched
eventhoughafewofObamascloseadvisersallow,inretrospect,thatitmighthavebeenworthgivingPetraeusoptionachance.
Inanycase,twoyearslater,Obamaapprovedasimilarplan.However,whentheAmerican-backedrebelsstartedrackingup
victoriesonthebattlefieldandappearedtobeclosinginonAssad,Obamaspredictionofwhatwouldhappennextcametrue:the
IraniansredoubledtheirsupportforAssad,sendingQudsForcesoldierstofighttherebels.AndRussianPresidentVladimirPutin,
fearingthelossofMoscowssoleoutpostoutsidetheformerSovietUnion,senttanks,planes,andmissilestosupporttheSyrian
army.

REDLINE,REDFACE

SyriaiswhereObamasforeignpolicymetitsmostbrutalchallenge,andwherehistoolsfordealingwithcriseswords,logic,
persistentquestions,andsequentialproblemsolvingprovedinadequate.

Atleastfivetimesintheeight-monthspanbetweenAugust2012andApril2013,Obamaoradministrationofficialspubliclywarned
Assadthatusingchemicalweaponsagainstrebelsandprotesterswouldcrossaredline.Itwouldmarkagamechangerfromour
perspective,Obamaelaboratedononeoccasion.Therewouldbeenormousconsequences,hesaidonanother.Itwouldbe
totallyunacceptable,andAssadwouldbeheldaccountable.Yetdespitesuchutterances,saycloseaidesandofficials,the
presidentneverorderedupaplanforwhattodoifAssadcrossedtheline.

Then,onAugust21,2013,rocketshellscontainingsaringasslammedrebel-controlledareasintheDamascussuburbs,killingan
estimated1,500people.Theredlinehadbeencrossed.Obamaswiftlydecidedtoretaliate.Attackplansweredrawnup,mostof
themdesignedtodestroynotthechemicalstockpilesthemselves(explosionsofwhichmightspreadthegasfarandwide)butrather
themunitionsandfacilitiesrequiredtolaunchthemintobattle.Assadsregimewasnottheexplicittargetinanyoftheseplans,but
someWhiteHouseaidesthought,orhoped,thathisstrengthmighterodeasasideeffect.

PeteSouza/WhiteHouse/HandoutviaReuters
 ObamameetswithnationalsecuritystafftodiscussthesituationinSyriaintheWhiteHouseSituation
Room,August2013.

Obamaseemedtobeseriousaboutlaunchingthestrikes.Hisaideswereinstructedtophonelegislatorsandjournaliststomakesure
theyhadreadanunclassifiedintelligencereportthattheWhiteHousehadjustreleasedprovingthatAssadwasbehindthechemical
attacks.AUNresolutionbackingtheuseofforceinSyriawasunlikelyRussiaandpossiblyChinawouldvetoit.SoObamarallied
ArabandNATOnationstojoinintheattack,oratleasttoendorseit.Hegotnosuchsupport,exceptfromFranceandtheUnited
KingdombutthenBritishPrimeMinisterDavidCameronrequestedauthorizationforanattackfromParliament,whichvotedit
down.

OnAugust31,theNSCmetformorethantwohours.EveryonearoundthetableagreedthattheUnitedKingdomsbackpedaling,
althoughregrettable,shouldnotaffectthepresidentsdecisionandthatheshouldproceedwiththeairstrikes.Ateamoflawyers
advisedhimthathehadthelegalauthoritytodoso.Afterthemeeting,however,ObamafamouslytookawalkontheWhiteHouse
backlawnwithhischiefofstaff,DenisMcDonough,andwhenhecamebacktotheSituationRoom,heannouncedthathehad
decidedtoletCongressvoteonthequestion.

Allofthepresidentsaidesandofficialsweresurprised,andnotinagoodway.ButObamaexplainedthatheneededsome
institutionalbackingforsuchadrastic,riskymove.Abombingcampaignmightkillnearbycivilians,anditmighthavenoimpacton
Assad.WhatifAssaddoubleddownandlaunchedmoreattacks,chemicalorotherwise?IftheUnitedStatesansweredwithstill
moreairstrikes,itwouldriskgettingsuckedintoacivilwar,andifitdidnothing,thatwouldbeworsestill:Washingtonwouldlook
weaker,andAssadwouldemergestronger,thaniftheUnitedStateshaddonenothingtobeginwith.SomeWhiteHouseaideshad
viewedairstrikesasaone-offproposition,butPentagonofficialshadarguedduringtheNSCmeetingsthatifObamawentahead
withairstrikes(whichtheysupported),heshouldbepreparedforescalation.ObamasuspectedthePentagonwasright.Whatever
hedid,hisactions(orinaction)wouldsirecriticismanddisunitytheywouldreceivelittlesupportandcouldnotbesustained.

Tomanyaroundthetable,eachseparatepieceofObamasargumentmadesense,buttheoveralllogicdidnot.Maybeitwasabad
ideatoproceedwithairstrikes,butinthatcase,Obamashouldnothavedrawnthoseredlines:heshouldnothaverecitedthe
rationaleforairstrikestosomanydiplomats,journalists,andlegislatorsheshouldnothavetoldSecretaryofStateJohnKerryto
makeacaseforthebombings(inapowerfulspeechjusthoursbeforehechangedcourse)andaftermakingthisnewdecision,he
certainlyshouldnothavegoneaheadwithascheduledprime-timetelevisionaddressinwhichhedetailedAssadsperfidy,laidoutthe
nationalsecurityconcerns,claimedhehadthelegalauthoritytorespondwithunilateralairstrikesandthenannouncedthathewas
sendingthemattertoCongress.

Attimes,Obamahastalkedmoreboldlythanhehasacted,creatinganeedlessgapbetweenwordsanddeeds.

OneNSCofficialwhowasrelievedthatthestrikesdidnottakeplaceneverthelesssaid,Wepaidapriceforpullingback.The
perceptionamongpeopleintheregionwasthattheycouldntrelyonObamatopullthetrigger.AformertopWhiteHouseofficial
said,WhenpeopleseriouspeoplesayObamaisindecisiveanduncertain,theyretalkingaboutthisepisodewithSyria.

TheWhiteHouselobbiedCongresstopassaresolutionauthorizingtheuseofforce,butthetaskwasclearlyfutile:most
RepublicansdidnotwanttodoanyfavorsforObama,andmanyDemocratswereleeryofmilitaryaction.Intheend,Russiacame
totherescue.AtapressconferenceonSeptember9,KerrywasaskedifAssadcoulddoanythingtoavoidairstrikes.Kerryreplied,
Sure,hecouldturnovereverybitofhis[chemical]weaponstotheinternationalcommunitywithinthenextweek,withoutdelay,
adding,butheisntaboutto.Toeveryonesastonishment,RussianForeignMinisterSergeyLavrovrepliedthathecouldmakethat
happenandhedid.UnderRussianpressure,Assadsurrenderedverynearlyallofhischemicalweaponsfordestruction.

Obamaandhisaidesdeclaredvictory,notingthatthisdiplomaticsolutionwasmoreeffectivethanmilitarystrikeswouldhavebeen
andthatthethreatofthosestrikeswaswhathaddrivenRussiatopressureAssad.Thefirstclaimwasprobablytruethesecond
probablywasnot.ThefactisCongressseemedcertaintodefeatObamasmotionbeforeRussiasteppedin.ItispossiblethatPutin
neverbelievedthatObamawouldfeelboundbyCongress,thathewouldfindsomewaytolaunchthestrikesanyway.Butmore
pertinent,Russianleadershavealwaystakenpainstokeepweaponsofmassdestructionbiological,chemical,ornuclearoutof
theirallieshands:notsomuchbecausetheyabhorthoseweaponsasbecausetheyabhorthelossofcontrol.Moscowhaditsown
interestsinstrippingtheloosecannonAssadoftheseghastlyweapons,andsincetheredlinecrisishadforcedObamatofocuson
thechemicalsandnotonAssadsregime,thediplomaticsavewouldserveoneofRussiasvitalintereststhepreservationof
MoscowsonlyfootholdintheMiddleEast.

THEISISCRISIS

Theredlinefiascowasalowpointintheadministrationsforeignpolicy,butthetroublesinSyriawerehardlyover.Lessthanayear
afterthechemicalweaponssettlement,ISISwhichObamahadrecentlydismissedasaJVversionofalQaedastormedMosul,
thesecond-largestcityinIraq.TheU.S.-trainedIraqisoldiersfledatfirstcontact,andthearmedjihadistsbarreledontoRamadiand
Fallujahand,forawhile,cameperilouslyclosetoBaghdad.

ThejihadistshadstartedoutandwerelargelybasedinSyria,butObamafocusedhisanti-ISISstrategyonIraqbecausethatswhere
itmighthavesomeeffecttheUnitedStates,afterall,hadresources,airbases,andapartnershipofsortswithafunctioning
governmentinthecountryandithadnoneofthosethingsinSyria,whereObamaremainedproperlywaryofdivingintoa
sectariancivilwar.EvenbySeptember2014,whenObamarealizedthatSyriacouldntbeignored(itwas,afterall,theheadquarters
ofISISoperations,andheknewverywellthattheIraqi-Syrianborderwasporoustothepointofmeaningless),hestucktowhat
hisaidescalledanIraqfirststrategy.Americanairstrikes,whichhadlongbegunagainstISISforcesinIraq,wouldbeextendedto
Syria,butonlyoverthepathsthatISISusedtotravelbetweenthetwocountries.Obamaalsoannouncedaprogramtotrainand
equipmoderateSyrianrebelsonbasesinSaudiArabiabutnotedthattheywouldntbereadytofightISISformanymonths
clearly,Syriawasonthebackburner,atbest.

DaysafterObamasannouncement,ISISlaidsiegetoKobani,amainlyKurdishtownontheSyrian-Turkishborder.Thetownhad
nostrategicsignificance,butamassacrewasinthemaking.Morethanthat,ISISwassendingthousandsofjihadistsintothetown
forminganeasyconcentratedtarget,whichneitherthePentagonnorObamacouldresist.Obamaorderedmassiveairstrikes,
whichkilledanestimated2,000to3,000ISISfighters.

AnexplosioncausedbyanairstrikeinKobani,Syria,November2014.

Inanotherunexpectedfeatureofthebattle,KurdishfightersgatheredtostaveoffISIS,foughtverycapably,andrecapturedthe
town.ObamahadnotbeenopposedtogoingafterISISinsideSyriahejusthadnotseenasuitablepartnerthatcouldcarryoutthe
fightontheground.IntheSyrianKurds,hefoundone,andU.S.airstrikescontinued,oftenintandemwithKurdishground
assaults.Atthesametime,theCIAstartedcovertlyassistingagroupofrebelsinsouthernSyriawhosemainaimwastooverthrow
Assad.Again,ObamahadopposedPetraeusplantoarmsomerebelsnotbecausehewasagainstarmingrebelsbutbecausehedid
notseehowthatparticularplanorthoseparticularrebelswouldsucceed.Thenewplanseemedmoreplausible,inpartbecausethe
CIAandtheU.S.militaryhadgatheredalotmoreintelligenceandscopedoutreliableforcesoverthepreviousyear.(Aseparate$500
millionPentagonprogramtotrainandequipasmallgroupofnorthernSyrianrebelstofightISISprovedpubliclydisastrous:the
rebelsturnedouttobemoreinterestedinfightingAssadsarmythanISIS,takingthemoutofthefighttotraininSaudiArabiaonly
disorientedthem,andmoremilitantrebelskilledalmostallofthemontheirreentryintoSyria.)

Viewedpiecebypiece,tacticalmovebytacticalmove,Obamasoperationsappearedtobemakingprogress.Butforeignfighters
keptfloodingtheregion,ISISwasbarelybudgedaside,andalthoughAssadsarmyseemedimperiled,itwasstillquitelarge(at
around125,000troops)andrecoveredmuchofitsstrengthafterRussiasentintanksandjetfightersinSeptember2015.Russias
moveraisedthehacklesofsomeofObamascritics,whosawPutinastryingtorevivetheSovietempire.Obamadidntbite,and
wiselyso.AtanNSCmeeting,hecautionedagainstviewingRussiasinterventionthroughaColdWarprism.Wearenotatwarwith
RussiaoverSyria,hesaid,accordingtoofficialswhowereatthemeeting.Putinsvitalinterestinthishadmuchtodowithhisown
domesticpolitics,andanalarmedAmericanresponsewouldhaveplayedintohisgame.Finally,ObamadoubtedthattheRussian
militarycampaignwouldhavemuchimpactonthebattle.

Nonetheless,Obamawasstillreceptivetoattractiveoptionsforhisownmilitaryposture.TheSyrianKurdswererackingupmore
successes(andrequiringmoreprotectionfromTurkey,whichwaspoundingthemwithairstrikeswhileclaimingtobegoingafter
ISIS),andsoObamaapprovedplanstosendtheKurdsmoreammunitionandtodeployU.S.SpecialForcestojointheminraids
onISISstrongholds,secretmissionsthatresultedinsixfatalitiesbeforeObamaannouncedtheactionspublicly.

Obamahasakeenlegalmind,whichserveshimandthecountrywellwhenhepokesholesinspeciousargumentsforriskypolicies.
Butitalsoenableshimtorationalizehisownporouspositions:forinstance,thatconductingjointraidsfallsinthecategoryofadvise
andassist,notbootsontheground.Hecanalsomakefirmassurancesthathewillnotpushthesegroundforcesanyfurther,
ignoringthathehaslaidthegroundworkandsetthelogicforhissuccessorintheWhiteHousetoescalatethefight,ifheorsheis
soinclined.(Nottodrawpreciseparallels,butinasimilarvein,PresidentJohnF.KennedyfirmlyresistedpressurefromtheJoint
ChiefsofStafftodeploycombattroopstoVietnamyetexpandedthescopeandnumbersofadvisersthere,leavingPresident
LyndonJohnsontobelievehewasfollowinginhispredecessorsfootstepswhenhepoured500,000U.S.troopsintothefight.)

SyriaiswhereObamastoolsfordealingwithcrisesprovedinadequate.

UmitBektas/REUTERSAblackflagbelongingtoISISnearKobani,October2014.
THESEARCHFORORDER

WhathasbeenmissinginObamasSyriapolicy,inallitsphases,isacoherentstrategy.HistwoaimsdefeatingISISand
pressuringAssadtostepdownareinsomewayscontradictory.AssadscontinuedreignhasbeenamagnetforforeignSunni
fighterstojoinISIS.Butintheshortrun,Assadsarmy,ifproperlydirected,couldbethemostpotentanti-ISISforcesecond
perhapsonlytoIran,whichhasbeensendingmembersofitseliteQudsForcetoprotectAssadsregime.Obamahasbeen
constrainedfromforminganovertalliancewithAssadorIran,inpartbecausehehasneededSunnialliesEgypt,Turkey,andthe
GulfstatestodelegitimizeanddefeattheSunniradicalsofISISifhebondedwithShiiteIranoritsclientAssad,thosecountries
mightdropoutofthecoalition.

ThereinliestheheartoftheproblemnotonlywithObamasstrategyagainstISISbutwithanyU.S.presidentsstabatsucha
strategy.IfallthecountriesthatfearedandloathedISISwhichistosay,almostallthecountriesintheregionjoinedforces,ISIS
wouldcrumbleinshortorder.Buteachofthosecountrieshasmorefearandloathingforatleastoneofitspotentialallies(Turkey
fortheKurdsandSaudiArabiaforIran,forexample).Forminganeffectivecoalitionhasthereforebeenallbutimpossibleafact
thatISIScommandershaveshrewdlyexploited.

AsmanyofObamascriticscontend,acoherentregionalstrategynotjustaseriesofpiecemealresponsestocrisesisneededto
solvethisproblem.Butwhatisthisregionalstrategy?Whoshouldleadit?Whatincentivesmightlurethepotentialcoalitionsplayers
tosubordinatetheirindividualintereststothelargergoal?(InOctober,ObamadroppedhisreluctanceandinvitedIranandRussiato
jointalksinViennatodiscussapoliticalsolutiontotheSyriancrisisandajointfightagainstISIS.Theprospectsseemeddim,until
ontheveryeveoftheconferenceISISagentsmountedcoordinatedterroristattacksinParis.Althoughtheoddsremainlong,a
plausiblepathtoasettlementopenedup.Obamaseemstohaverecognized,alongwithothers,thattranscendingthesectariandivide
ratherthanaccommodatingitandformingallianceswithrivalsagainstlarger,commonthreatsistheonlywaytowardapeaceful
transition.)

ThesecomplexitiesaresymptomaticofalargerphenomenonthataccountsforthesurgeofviolencethroughouttheMiddleEast:the
breakdownofthecolonialorderimposedattheendofWorldWarI.Thisorder,withitsartificialbordersdesignedtosplitor
suppresstribalidentities,wouldhavecollapsedafterWorldWarII(alongwiththeBritishandFrenchcolonies)butforthedeep
freezeimposedbytheColdWar.WhentheSovietUnionimploded,theColdWartoodissolved,alongwiththeinternationalsecurity
systemthatithadcreatedandsustainedfornearlyhalfacentury.Withthesubsequentdiffusionofglobalpowerandfragmentation
ofpowerblocs,thecollapseoftheMiddleEastsbordersandauthoritiesresumedaprocessacceleratedbyPresidentGeorgeW.
Bushs2003invasionofIraq,whichdisruptedthebalanceofpoweramongnations,sects,andtribesthathadkeptanuneasypeace
betweenShiitesandSunnis,notonlywithinIraqbutacrosstheregion,asthedisruptionsripplesspread.

SomeofObamascriticsclaimthatifhehadfoundawaytokeep10,000AmericantroopsinIraqinsteadofgoingthroughwitha
completewithdrawalin2011,therenewalofsectarianviolenceandtheriseofISIStofillthesubsequentpowervacuumwould
neverhavehappened.Butthisisextremelyunlikely,giventhatinanearliereraittookcloseto170,000U.S.combattroopsusing
extraordinarymeasurestostemasimilartide,andeventhentheywereabletodosoonlytemporarily.Inanycase,Obamahadno
choiceinthematter.Thestatus-of-forcesagreement(SOFA)thatBushsignedin2008demanded,AlltheUnitedStatesForcesshall
withdrawfromallIraqiterritorynolaterthanDecember31,2011.Obamawas,infact,amenabletokeeping5,000troopsinIraq
forthelonghaulandsentemissariestoBaghdadtoseeifanextensioncouldbenegotiated,butrevisionstotheSOFAincludinga
U.S.demandthatAmericantroopsenjoyimmunityfromIraqilaw,requiredparliamentaryapproval,andnofactionsintheIraqi
parliament,exceptperhapstheKurds,wouldvotefortheAmericanstostay.(Obamahasbeenabletosendmilitaryforcesbackto
IraqonlybecausetheSOFAexpiredafterthreeyears.)

AsforAfghanistan,theotherwarthatObamapromisedandtriedtoend,itkeepsragingaswell.InOctober2015,reversingan
earlierpolicytowithdrawallU.S.troopsfromthecountrybytheendofhisterm,Obamaannouncedthat5,500wouldremainthere
tocontinuetrainingandequippingAfghanforcesandtoconductcounterterroristoperations.

BAZRATNER/REUTERSU.S.soldiersfireahowitzerartillerypieceinKandaharProvince,Afghanistan,June
2011.

ObamaannouncedthischangesoonafterTalibanfighterstookoverthenortherncityofKunduz,buthehadmadethedecisionafew
monthsearlier,accordingtoaseniorcounterterrorismofficial.ThenewAfghanpresident,AshrafGhani,hadaskedObamanotto
withdrawallU.S.troops,signedabilateralsecurityagreementgivingU.S.forceslegalprotections(anaccordthathispredecessor,
HamidKarzai,hadrefusedtoconsider),andpromisedreformstobroadeninclusivityandcrackdownoncorruption.Meanwhile,
terroristgroupsstillflourishedacrosstheborderwithPakistan.NooneintheNSCopposedsustainingacounterterroristforceon
somebaseintheregionherewasGhaniofferingthreeexistingbases.AninteragencystudyconductedbyGeneralMartinDempsey,
thenthechairmanoftheJointChiefsofStaff,concludedthatthemissioncouldbesupportedwith5,500troops.Andsothedecision
wasmade.Kunduz(whichAfghansoldiersquicklyrecaptured)wasthenewspegthatpreemptedpoliticalobjections.

ThetragedyofObamaspresidencyisthat,fromthebeginning,hehaswantedtoshiftawayfromthestagnantbattlefieldsinand
aroundtheMiddleEastanddevotemoreattentiontotheAsia-Pacificregion,withitsprospectsfordynamicgrowth,trade,and,in
theformofChina,anexpansionistpowerthatneedstobeatoncecontainedmilitarilyandluredintotheglobaleconomy.Thisfocus
onAsiacametobecalledthepivot,orrebalancing,butObamahadrecognizeditsappealanddiscusseditasfarbackashis
2008presidentialcampaign.Heunderstood,andstilldoes,thatthisiswheretheUnitedStatesfutureinterestsliebutthenever-
endingcrisesoftheancientworldkeeppullinghimbackin.

LIMITEDINTERESTS,LIMITEDRISKS

AstheISISimbrogliowidened,yetanothercrisiserupted,thistimeinUkraine.AfterPutinbribedUkrainianPresidentViktor
YanukovychwithanaidpackagetostophimfromsigninganassociationagreementwiththeEuropeanUnion,popularprotests
brokeoutinKiev.WhenYanukovychcrackeddown,theprotestswidened,andhewasultimatelyforcedtoflee.Putinrespondedby
sendingRussianforcestoseizetheCrimeanPeninsulaandsupportasecessionistrebellionineasternUkraine.
InNSCmeetingsheldtodecidehowtorespondtoRussiasmove,Obamaquicklyapprovedascriptofdenunciation,reinforcements
ofU.S.militaryexercisesinandaroundeasternEuropesNATOallies(especiallytheBalticstates),andastringofeconomic
sanctions.

SomePentagonofficialswantedtogofurtherandsupplytheUkrainianarmywithlethaldefensiveweapons,especiallyTOW
antitankmissiles.AccordingtoNSCofficials,VicePresidentJoeBidenstronglyendorsedthisposition,sayingthattheUnitedStates
hadamoralobligationtohelptheUkrainiansdefendthemselves,aswellasastrategicinterestinmakingPutinpayforhislandgrab
andindeterringhimfromgoingfurther.(NooneinanyNSCmeeting,however,advocatedsendingUkraineoffensiveweaponsor
deployingU.S.troopstothecountry.)

CemOksuz/Pool/REUTERS

ObamatalkswithRussianPresidentVladimirPutinandU.S.NationalSecurityAdviserSusanRice
duringtheG20Leaders'SummitinAntalya,Turkey,November2015.

Intheend,Obamaapprovedtheprovisionofnonlethalmilitaryassistance,suchasnight-visionandradarequipment,andtrainingfor
UkrainesNationalGuard.Beyondthat,hewasopposed.TheUnitedStateshadinterestsinUkraine,butnotvitalinterests.There
werereasonstwopreviouspresidentshadconsidered,thendecidedagainst,invitingKievsleaderstojoinNATO.First,pollshad
suggestedthatlessthanhalfofUkrainianswantedmembership.Second,RussiasinterestsinUkraine,unliketheUnitedStates,
werevital:RussiaandUkrainesharedaborderandalonghistoryoftrade,culturalexchange,andevencommonstatehood.No
RussianleaderwouldstandbyasUkrainedriftedtoofarfromMoscowsorbit.

Obamalikestolookaheadtwoorthreesteps.(Hiscriticshaveseenthisasatechniqueforavoidingtheuseofforceothersseeitas
amethodofrationaldecision-making.)MoscowcouldandwouldmatchorsurpassanylethalweaponsthattheWestsuppliedto
Kiev.Thenwhat?IfWashingtonsentstillmorearms,itwouldriskgettingsuckedintoanarmsrace,andtheviolencewould
intensify.IftheUnitedStatesdidnotrespondinkind,theWestwouldhavelostthecontestObamawouldlookweaker,andRussia
stronger,thanifhehadnotsentanyarmsinthefirstplace.

ThiswasObamasfirstprincipleinalldiscussionsaboutthecrisis:hewasnotgoingtoriskawarwithRussiaforthesakeof
Ukraine.Atonemeeting,hesaid,IfIwantedtoinvadeCanadaorMexico,noonecoulddomuchaboutit.Thesamewastrueof
PutinandUkraine.

Still,Obamaputahighvalueonenforcinginternationalnorms,oneofwhichwastheinviolabilityofborders.Hefeltitnecessaryto
makeRussiapayforitsviolationthequestionwashow.Militaryescalation,inthiscontext,wasagameRussiawouldwin,but
escalationofsanctionswasonetheUnitedStatescouldwin,ifObamacouldkeepEuropeanstatesonboard.Thiswasachallenge,
formanyEuropeancountriesweremorereliantonRussianenergysuppliesthantheUnitedStateswasandthereforemorevulnerable
toeconomicreprisalsfromRussia.TheywerealsodeadsetagainstriskingwaroverUkraine.IfObamawentupthemilitaryladder,
heknewtheywoulddropoutofthesanctionsregime.

Obamaskeenlegalmindallowshimtorationalizehisownporouspositions.

Atleastthroughthefallof2015,Obamaspolicyhasworked.DespitePutinseffortstosplitthetransatlanticalliance,itsmembers
haveheldtightonthesanctions,andthecease-firenegotiatedinMinskinFebruaryhasheld,too.PutinslikelygoalinUkrainewas
toweakenthecountryscentralgovernmentandkeepitfrommovingclosertotheWest.Atthat,hehassucceeded.IfObamaand
thewesternEuropeannationshadwantedtostrikebackonthatfront,tensofbillionsofdollarsineconomicaidwouldhavemeanta
lotmorethanafewhundredantitankmissiles.ButbeyondarelativelypaltryInternationalMonetaryFundgrant,nooneseemedto
wanttogodownthatroad.

PATIENCEANDPRAGMATISM

SohowdoesObamasrecordstackup?Thepresidenthasbeenbesiegedbyforeignpolicycrises,constrainedbydiminished
Americanpower,andpressuredbyopponentsathomeandalliesabroadtotakeactionandshowleadership,evenwhendealingwith
intractableproblems.Hehaslearnedonthejob,withhisinstinctsforcautionreinforcedbytheill-fatedLibyanintervention.Andhe
has,attimes,talkedmoreboldlythanhehasacted,creatinganeedlessgapbetweenwordsanddeeds.

Andyetforthemostpart,hehasstayedtruetothetemplateofhisNobeladdress,keepingsightofthebigpictureasothershave
gottenlostintheshrubs.Hiscautionaboutembarkingonunnecessarymilitaryadventuresanddesiretoavoidescalatorymilitary
spiralsseemwise.Obamahasalsoprovedremarkablypatientwithdrawn-outdiplomaticnegotiations,eventhoseunlikelytobear
fruit.Someofthese,suchastheIsraeli-Palestinianpeacetalks,havepredictablygonenowhere,butothers,suchastheopeningto
CubaandthenucleardealwithIran,havebeenstrikinglysuccessful.

Thesuccessesandfailuresstem,inpart,fromthedoggedoptimismofObamassecond-termsecretaryofstate,Kerry.Itisdoubtful
thatKerrysmorecautiouspredecessor,Clinton,ormostotherpastsecretariesofstate,wouldhavestuckwiththenucleartalks
withIranforaslongasKerrydidbutneitherwouldshehavespentsomuchtimeandefforttryingtojump-startamoribund
MiddleEastpeaceprocess.

OnedownsidetoKerrysvisionofhisjob,asspecialenvoytotheworldsmosthopelesslogjams,isthatitleavesmuchoftherest
oftheworldabitanxious.ThishasbeenespeciallytrueoftheUnitedStatesalliesinAsiamostofallJapan,whoseleaders
demandconstanthandholding.DuringObamasfirstterm,KurtCampbell,theassistantsecretaryofstateforEastAsianandPacific
affairs,phonedhiscounterpartinTokyoeverydayandmetface-to-facewiththeJapaneseambassadorthreetimesaweek.Officials
whodealwithAsianaffairssaythatafterCampbellleft,andKerryturnedtheStateDepartmentsfocusalmostexclusivelytohigh-
profilepeacemissions,Tokyofeltabandoned.

Still,thishardlyamountedtoacrisis.First,whenBeijingstartedflexingitsnavalmusclesintheSouthChinaSea,Japan(and
AustraliaandSouthKorea)clungeverclosertoWashington,howeverfrustrateditfeltattimes.Second,anotherbigpartofthe
UnitedStatesrelationswithAsiainvolvessimplyshowingupandalthoughtheassistantsecretarymaynotbecallingasoften,
ObamaandKerryshowupatalltheAsiansecurityandeconomicsummits.Anxietyaboutabandonmentremainsithasbeenafactor
fordecades,atleastsincetheUnitedStatespulledoutofVietnamandsecretlyreachedouttoChinaduringthepresidencyofRichard
Nixon.ButObamasmissteps,whichhavebotheredalliesintheMiddleEast,havenotweighedatallonthoseinEastAsia.Daniel
Sneider,theassociatedirectorforresearchattheWalterH.ShorensteinAsia-PacificResearchCenteratStanfordUniversity,hasmet
privatelywithdozensofpoliticalandmilitaryleadersfromJapanandSouthKorea.Hesays,Iveneverheardanyofthemsaya
wordabouttheredlineinSyria.

OnAugust5,2015,thepresidentdeliveredaspiritedspeechatAmericanUniversitydefendingthenucleardealthatheandfiveother
worldpowershadnegotiatedwithIran.Severaltimes,hequotedKennedysfamousAmericanUniversityspeechin1963callingfor
anendtotheColdWarmindsetandanewstrategybasedonapracticalandattainablepeace,onebasednotonasudden
revolutioninhumannaturebutonagradualevolutioninhumaninstitutionsonaseriesofconcreteactionsandeffective
agreements.

Laterthatday,Obamaheldanon-the-recordroundtablediscussionwithtencolumnistsintheWhiteHouse.Whenmyturncameto
askaquestion,InotedthatKennedyhaddeliveredhisspeechafterseveralcrisesinwhichherealizedthathisadviserswereoften
wrongandthatheshouldplacemoretrustinhisowninstincts.Whatlessons,IaskedObama,hadhelearnedinhiscrises?What
decisionsmighthehavemadedifferently,hadheknownthenwhatheknowsnow?Heanswered:

IwouldsaythatIhavebeenconsistentinmybroadviewofhowAmericanpowershouldbedeployedandtheview
thatweunderestimateourpowerwhenwerestrictittojustourmilitarypower....Theresnodoubtthat,aftersixand
ahalfyears,IamthatmuchmoreconfidentintheassessmentsImakeandcanprobablyseearoundthecornersfaster
thanIdidwhenIfirstcameintooffice.Themapisntalwaystheterritory,andyouhavetokindofwalkthroughitto
getafeelforit.

IntermsofdecisionsImake,IdothinkthatIhaveabettersenseofhowmilitaryactioncanresultinunintended
consequences.AndIamconfirmedinmybeliefthatmuchofthetime,wearemakingjudgmentsbasedonpercentages,
and...therearealwaysgoingtobesomecomplications.

AndsomaybeatthesametimeasImmoreconfidenttoday,Imalsomorehumble.Andthatspartofthereasonwhy,
whenIseeasituationlikethisone[thepossibilityofanucleardealwithIran],wherewecanachieveanobjective
withaunifiedworldbehindusandwepreserveourhedgeagainstitsnotworkingout,Ithinkitwouldbefoolish
eventragicforustopassuponthatopportunity.

ThisarticlehasbeenupdatedtocorrectthedatethatPresidentObamadeliveredaspeechabouttheIrannucleardealatAmerican
University.ItwasAugust5,2015,notApril5.
 From: DonaldJensen<donald.jensen8@gmail.com>
Senttime: 01/01/201605:36:16AM
To: RobertOtto<robertotto25@gmail.com>
Subject: Re:.....speakingofvillageidiots

Thanks.Missedit.TillIreadyourcommentsIwasinsurewhetheryouwerereferringtoMikey,Rojansky,orboth.

OnFri,Jan1,2016at8:31AM,RobertOtto<robertotto25@gmail.com>wrote:
http://www.washingtonpost.com/news/powerpost/wp/2015/12/30/lack-of-russia-experts-has-the-u-s-playing-catch-up/?
postshare=1351451515733124&tid=ss_fb-bottom

Sotheproblem20yearsagowasnottheanalysisthatRussiawasonapathtowarddemocracy,theproblemwastheanalysisthat
Russia'sindecline.

a)somebodyneedstotellthismoronthatdeclineisnotsynonymouswithimmediatecollapse."

b)somebodywhowrotethisgemshouldbeatadmorehumbleinhispublicpronouncments

http://cddrl.fsi.stanford.edu/publications/getting_russia_right

HistorianswillsomedaywritethatRussiare-enteredtheWesterncommunityofstatesasamarketdemocracyattheendofthe20th
century.Youwouldn'tthinkso,however,fromthevituperativeandpessimistictoneofmostcontemporarycommentaryintheUnited
StatesaboutRussiaandU.S.-Russianrelations.FocusingonluridaccountsofRussianmoneylaundering,cronyism,andwidespread
politicalandeconomicdisarray,politiciansandpunditshaveblastedtheClintonadministrationformishandlingacrucialstrategic
relationshipand"losing"Russia.

Ofcoursethisisthesameguywhowrote(UnfinishedRevolutionpp24-25)"ifhistorymatteredallthetime,therewouldneverbeany
change."
 From: RobertOtto<robertotto25@gmail.com>
Senttime: 01/01/201605:31:06AM
To: DonaldJensen<donald.jensen8@gmail.com>
Subject: .....speakingofvillageidiots

http://www.washingtonpost.com/news/powerpost/wp/2015/12/30/lack-of-russia-experts-has-the-u-s-playing-catch-up/?
postshare=1351451515733124&tid=ss_fb-bottom

Sotheproblem20yearsagowasnottheanalysisthatRussiawasonapathtowarddemocracy,theproblemwastheanalysisthat
Russia'sindecline.

a)somebodyneedstotellthismoronthatdeclineisnotsynonymouswithimmediatecollapse."

b)somebodywhowrotethisgemshouldbeatadmorehumbleinhispublicpronouncments

http://cddrl.fsi.stanford.edu/publications/getting_russia_right

HistorianswillsomedaywritethatRussiare-enteredtheWesterncommunityofstatesasamarketdemocracyattheendofthe20th
century.Youwouldn'tthinkso,however,fromthevituperativeandpessimistictoneofmostcontemporarycommentaryintheUnitedStates
aboutRussiaandU.S.-Russianrelations.FocusingonluridaccountsofRussianmoneylaundering,cronyism,andwidespreadpolitical
andeconomicdisarray,politiciansandpunditshaveblastedtheClintonadministrationformishandlingacrucialstrategicrelationship
and"losing"Russia.

Ofcoursethisisthesameguywhowrote(UnfinishedRevolutionpp24-25)"ifhistorymatteredallthetime,therewouldneverbeany
change."
 From: FionaHill<fhill@brookings.edu>
Senttime: 01/04/201604:00:25PM
To: RobertOtto<robertotto25@gmail.com>
Subject: RE:FredKaplan:HowObamaMakesForeignPolicy|ForeignAffairs

ThanksforalltheitemsBobandgreattoseeyoutoday!

From:RobertOtto[mailto:robertotto25@gmail.com]
Sent:Monday,January04,20163:23PM
To:FionaHill
Subject:FredKaplan:HowObamaMakesForeignPolicy|ForeignAffairs

http://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/2015-12-07/obamas-way?cid=emc-Dec15_Remail_A-content-
123115&sp_mid=50368504&sp_rid=cm9iZXJ0b3R0bzI1QGdtYWlsLmNvbQS2&spMailingID=50368504&spUserID=OTQ5NTcwNTM2OTIS1&spJobID=824531828&spReportId=ODI0NTMxODI4S0

Obama'sWay
OnJanuary28,2009,barelyaweekintohispresidency,BarackObamametwiththeU.S.militarystopgeneralsandadmiralsontheirownturf,insidethetank,theJointChiefsofStaffsconferenceroom
onthesecondfloorofthePentagon.Aseniorofficialrecalledthenewpresidentasremarkablyconfidentcomposed,relaxed,butalsodeferential,nottryingtoacttoomuchthecommanderinchief.Obama
walkedaroundtheroom,introducinghimselftoeveryonehethankedthemandtheentirearmedforcesfortheirserviceandsacrificethenhesatdownforafreewheelingdiscussionoftheworldschallenges,
regionbyregion,crisisbycrisis.Hewasthemaninfull,theofficialsaid,fluentoneveryissue,butmorethanthatasurprisetotheofficers,whohadbeenleeryofthisyoung,inexperiencedDemocrathe
displayedadeepstreakofrealism.
Atonepoint,Obamaremarkedthathewasnotthesortofpersonwhodrivesdownastreetwishinghecouldparkwhereverhelikes.Ifhesawanopenspot,evenonethatrequiredsometrickyparallelparking,
hewouldbefinewithsqueezingintoit.Obamasmeaningwasclear:hehadbeendealtabadhand(twounpopularwars,alienatedallies,thedeepestrecessionindecades),buthewouldfindawaytodealwith
theworldasitwas.
Sevenyearslater,manyofficersanddefenseofficials,includingsomewhoweresoimpressedwithObamaatthestart,lookbackathispresidencyasfollowingadifferentstyleofgoverning.Theylaudthe
historicaccomplishmentstheIrannucleardeal,theopeningtoCuba,theTrans-PacificPartnership,theprevention(sofar)ofanotherterroristattackonAmericansoilandtheyacknowledgethathehas
oftentriedtomakethebestofbadchoices.Buttoooften,theysay,hehasavoidedtakingaction,waitingforconditionstogetbettercirclingtheblockand,inhisownmetaphor,waitingforabetterparking
spottoopenup.
ThisisacommoncritiqueofObamasforeignpolicy:thatheevadesharddecisions,thatheisallergictomilitaryforceifitrisksAmericancasualtiesorescalation,thatthereisoftenamismatchbetweenhis
wordsandhisdeeds.Thisisapattern,oneretiredfour-stargeneralsaid.Heissuessternwarnings,thendoesnothing.ItdamagesAmericancredibility.
Isthechargetrue?Andtotheextentthatithassomevalidity,howmuchcanbelaidatObamasfeet,andhowmuchshouldbeattributedtotheintractabilityoftheproblemshehasfaced?Wouldadifferent
sortofpresidenthavehandledthedecadeschallengesbetter,andifso,how?
ThefollowingexaminationofkeycrisesanddecisionsisbasedonconversationsIhavehadwithdozensofofficialsacrossthespanofObamaspresidencyandwith20mid-tosenior-levelofficials(pastand
present,almostallonabackgroundbasis)interviewedspecificallyforthisarticle.
THELESSONOFLIBYA
InDecember2009,ObamajourneyedtoOslotoreceivetheNobelPeacePrize.Theawardwaspremature,tosaytheleast,butheusedhisacceptancespeechtolaydowntheprinciplesofaforeignpolicyhe
hopedtofollowasophisticatedgrapplingwiththetensionsbetweenidealismandrealism.ItwasadaringspeechforaPeacePrizerecipient.Tosaythatforcemaysometimesbenecessaryisnotacallto
cynicism,hesaid.Itisarecognitionofhistory,theimperfectionofman,andthelimitsofreason.Nationsmustadheretostandardsthatgoverntheuseofforce,andajust,lastingpeacemustbebasedon
theinherentrightsanddignityofeveryindividual.Still,Americacannotactalone,exceptonmattersofvitalnationalinterest,andmereloftyrhetoricabouthumanrightsonlysustainsacripplingstatusquo.
Engagementwithrepressiveregimesmaylackthesatisfyingpurityofindignation,butnorepressiveregimecanmovedownanewpathunlessithasthechoiceofanopendoor.
BenjaminRhodes,Obamasdeputynationalsecurityadviserforstrategiccommunications,said,Whenpeopleaskmetosummarize[Obamas]foreignpolicy,Itellthemtotakeacloselookatthatspeech.
AnotherformertopWhiteHouseofficialcalleditatemplatetohowheapproachesproblems,aframeworkforhowhethinksaboutU.S.power.Whetherhefollowedthetemplatehowhegrappledin
actionwiththetensionsherecognizedintheorywouldbe,byhisownstandard,themeasureofhispresidency.
TheearlyyearsofObamastermweretakenupwithchallengesinheritedfromtheBushadministration,especiallythewarsinAfghanistanandIraq.Atthestartof2011,however,astringofnewproblems
emerged,asdomesticprotestsagainstauthoritarianleadersbrokeoutacrosstheMiddleEast.TheBenAliregimeinTunisiafellinJanuary,andtheMubarakregimeinEgyptfollowedinearlyFebruary.Bylate
February,rebelsopposedtotheLibyandictatorMuammaral-QaddafihadseizedcontrolincitiessuchasBenghazi,andthedictatorsdaysseemednumbered.Butthenthetideofwarreversed,andQaddafis
forcesmovedtocrushtheuprising.

ObamaattheNobelPeacePrizeawardceremonyinOslo,December2009.
Withtensofthousandsofcivilianlivesatrisk,theObamaadministration,whichhadcomeoutinsupportoftherebels,facedadifficultchoice.ThemembersoftheArabLeaguewereunanimouslyimploring
theUnitedStatestogetinvolved.NATOallieswerekeentointerveneinsupportofthearmedrebels,andaUNSecurityCouncilresolutionwasintheworks.AtaNationalSecurityCouncilmeetingcalledto
discussthecrisis,SecretaryofStateHillaryClinton,U.S.AmbassadortotheUNSusanRice,andsomeofObamasNSCstaffarguedforaction,citingmoralimperativesandtheprospectofatrulymultilateral
force.Butaccordingtoseveralpeoplepresentatthemeeting,Pentagonofficialsopposedintervening,pointingoutthattheUnitedStateshadnovitalinterestsinLibyaandthatanyseriouscommitmentwould
getWashingtonboggeddown,possiblyforyears.
Twooptionsweresetbeforethepresident:goinallthewayastheleaderofanalliance,ordontgoinatall.Obamasresponsewastocomeupwithathirdway,whichemergedashethoughtthroughthe
problemoutloud.Earlyon,hearticulatedtheprinciplesthatwouldunderliewhatevercoursehechose:noU.S.bootsontheground,nomilitaryactionatallunlessithadalegalbasisandadecentchanceof
succeeding,and,finally,anappropriatedivisionoflaborwithalliestheU.S.militarywouldprovideitsuniquecapabilities(amongthemprecisionbombingandintelligencesharing),butU.S.allies,whohada
fargreaterinterestintheconflictsoutcome,wouldassumethebruntofprotectingLibyanciviliansandrestoringorderafterthefighting.
InaninterviewatthetimewithTheNewYorker,anObamaadviser(whoseidentityremainsunknown)dubbedthisapproachleadingfrombehind,atermthatwouldcomeinformuchderision.Butincontext,
itmadesense,anditfitObamasoutlookontheroleandlimitsofmilitaryforce,thedistinctionbetweeninterestsandvitalinterests,andtheneedtoaligntheinstrumentsofpowerwiththeintensityofthose
interests.
Thefirstphaseoftheresultingoperationwasultimatelyasuccess.ThecombinationofU.S.airstrikesandintelligence,NATOairsupport,andrebelmovementsonthegroundledtothedefeatofQaddafis
forcesand(althoughthiswasnotanexplicitaimofthecampaign)thekillingoftheLibyanleaderhimself.Butthesecondphasewasafailure:anewgovernmentwasneverfullyformed,therebelfactions
squabblesdegeneratedintocivilwar,andthecountryssocialorder(suchasitwas)collapsed.
TheproblemwasthattheNATOalliesthathadpromisedtoleadthestabilizationphaseofapost-QaddafiLibyadidnotfollowthrough,inpartbecausethisphaseturnedouttobemuchmoreviolentthanthey
hadanticipated.Restoring(or,really,creating)orderwouldhaverequiredarmedinterventionandpossiblyseriouscombatontheground,amissionforwhichEuropeanstateshadlittlecapacityandless
appetite.
Obamarecognizedthefailure,acknowledginginhisSeptember2015speechtotheUNGeneralAssembly,EvenaswehelpedtheLibyanpeoplebringanendtothereignofatyrant,ourcoalitioncouldhave
andshouldhavedonemoretofillavacuumleftbehind.AndthelessonweighedonhimwhenconsideringhowtohandleasimilarcrisisinSyria.

ZohraBensemra/REUTERSLibyanrebelsattheairportinMisrata,May2011.
THESYRIANSINKHOLE
AstheArabSpringevolved,demonstrationsbrokeoutinDamascusagainstSyrianPresidentBasharal-Assad.Assadstruckbackwithextremeforce,killingprotestersfirstbythehundreds,thenbythe
thousands.Gradually,arebelforcearose,andthecountryplungedintocivilwar.WiththeUnitedStateshavingalreadyintervenedinLibyaundersimilarcircumstances,thequestionnaturallyarosewhetherit
wouldinterveneinSyriaaswell.
InanNSCmeeting,Obamaspelledoutthedifferencesbetweenthetwoconflicts.Libyasfightinghadtakenplaceonanopendesert,whichallowedforcleartargetingSyriawasenmeshedinurbanwarfare,
withcivilians,rebels,andsoldiersintermingled.TheLibyanrebelshadhadachanceatformingacohesivegovernmenttherewerenosuchpossibilitiesinSyria.Nootheroutsidepowerwascallingonthe
UnitedStatestointervenethistimearound.Finally,theconflictwascascadingintoaproxywarfortheregionwideSunni-Shiiteconfrontation.NotonlydidtheUnitedStateshavelittleatstakeinthisfight,butit
alsohadlittleabilitytoinfluenceitsdirectionoroutcome.Accordingtoseveralattendeesofthemeeting,nobodyreallydisagreedwiththesepoints.
Andyettheadministrationhadaligneditselfwiththeseasonspopularuprisings.InMay,inaspeechofuncharacteristicexuberance,Obamalikenedtheturmoiltopreviouserasofdemocraticrevolution.He
spokewithparticularurgencyaboutSyria,proclaimingthatAssadmuststopshootinghisownpeopleandallowhumanrightsmonitorstoenterthecountry.InAugust,Obamajoinedwiththeleadersof
France,Germany,andtheUnitedKingdomincallingonAssadtostepdown.Syriasrulerwasonthewrongsideofhistory,Obamasaid,declaringthatthetimehascomeforPresidentAssadtostepaside.

Forthemostpart,ObamahasstayedtruetothetemplateofhisNobeladdress,keepingsightofthebigpictureasothershavegottenlostintheshrubs.
Suchrhetoricwasdrivenbytwofactors.First,theaidesinObamasinnercirclefewofwhomknewanythingaboutMiddleEasternpoliticsreallydidthinkAssadsregimewasnearingcollapse.Second,
giventhatapparentfact,theyfeltitwasbesttoputtheadministrationpubliclyontherightsideofhistory,especiallysincealliednationswerecallingonObamatoshowleadership.
Therhetoricwasnotentirelyempty.Obamadidaskhismilitaryandintelligencechiefstocomeupwithplanstospeedhistoryalong,andinthesummerof2012,CIADirectorDavidPetraeuslaidoutascheme
toarmagroupofmoderateSyrianrebels.Theplan,whichPetraeushadformulatedwithSaudiPrinceBandarbinSultanandafewotherArabsecuritychiefs,calledforshippingsmallarms,mainlyrifles,toa
small,selectgroupoftheSyrianopposition.PetraeusdidnotpromisethemoonheexplicitlysaidthattheserebelscouldnotoustAssadrightawayandthatthegoalwastoputpressureonAssad.Ifyoure
sayingAssadmustgo,hewastellingthepresident,hereshowtheCIAcanhelp.TheplanhadthebackingofClinton,SecretaryofDefenseLeonPanetta,andtheJointChiefsofStaff.Butthepresident
rejectedit.

GORANTOMASEVIC/REUTERS
AFreeSyrianArmyfighterinAleppo,August2012.
ObamawasnotopposedtotakingactionhehadaskedPetraeusandPanettaforoptions.Buthewasopposedtodoingsomethingmerelyforthesakeofdoingsomething,andthePetraeusplanseemedtofall
intothatcategory.Whoweretheserebels,heasked?CouldtheUnitedStatesreallydistinguishthegoodonesfromthebadones?(Petraeusinsistedthathecould,butObamawasunconvinced.)Iftheserebels
didemergeasathreattotheregime,wouldIran,whichhadinvestedheavilyinAssad,simplystandby,orwoulditintervene(asObamathoughtmorelikely)?
InNSCmeetings,severalattendeesrecall,PetraeusacknowledgedthatitmighttakeyearsfortherebelstomountaneffectivechallengetoAssadsrule.Meanwhile,theCIAsplanmightthrowAssad
psychologicallyandgiveWashingtonskininthegame,apathtoinfluenceoverthelonghaul.ThiswasnotawinningargumentwithObama:hewaslookingforsomethingthathadachanceofsucceedingin
thenearterm,andhedidnotwantskininagameplayedinthequagmireofasectariancivilwar.WhilePetraeuswasworkinguptheplan,ObamaaskedtheCIAtoproduceapaperonhowofteninthepast
U.S.armshadsucceededinhelpingrebelsousthostilegovernments.Theanswer:notveryoften.Thatsealedthecase.
Althoughgroundedinlogicandhistory,therejectionofinterventioninSyriasetoffthefirstwavesofdiscontentoverObamasforeignpolicyingeneralthenotionthathedidnotwanttouseforce,thathe
wasalwaysonthelookoutforargumentsthatrationalizedthisdisinclination,thathetalkedboldbutfailedtofollowthrough,whichmadeallhiscommitmentsringhollow.
Lateron,astheself-proclaimedIslamicState(alsoknownasISIS)tookcontrolofvastswathsofIraqandSyria,ObamascriticsarguedthatifonlythepresidenthadacceptedPetraeusplan,ISISmightnot
havefoundafoothold.Buttheclaimseemsfar-fetchedeventhoughafewofObamascloseadvisersallow,inretrospect,thatitmighthavebeenworthgivingPetraeusoptionachance.Inanycase,two
yearslater,Obamaapprovedasimilarplan.However,whentheAmerican-backedrebelsstartedrackingupvictoriesonthebattlefieldandappearedtobeclosinginonAssad,Obamaspredictionofwhatwould
happennextcametrue:theIraniansredoubledtheirsupportforAssad,sendingQudsForcesoldierstofighttherebels.AndRussianPresidentVladimirPutin,fearingthelossofMoscowssoleoutpostoutside
theformerSovietUnion,senttanks,planes,andmissilestosupporttheSyrianarmy.
REDLINE,REDFACE
SyriaiswhereObamasforeignpolicymetitsmostbrutalchallenge,andwherehistoolsfordealingwithcriseswords,logic,persistentquestions,andsequentialproblemsolvingprovedinadequate.
Atleastfivetimesintheeight-monthspanbetweenAugust2012andApril2013,ObamaoradministrationofficialspubliclywarnedAssadthatusingchemicalweaponsagainstrebelsandprotesterswouldcross
aredline.Itwouldmarkagamechangerfromourperspective,Obamaelaboratedononeoccasion.Therewouldbeenormousconsequences,hesaidonanother.Itwouldbetotallyunacceptable,and
Assadwouldbeheldaccountable.Yetdespitesuchutterances,saycloseaidesandofficials,thepresidentneverorderedupaplanforwhattodoifAssadcrossedtheline.
Then,onAugust21,2013,rocketshellscontainingsaringasslammedrebel-controlledareasintheDamascussuburbs,killinganestimated1,500people.Theredlinehadbeencrossed.Obamaswiftlydecidedto
retaliate.Attackplansweredrawnup,mostofthemdesignedtodestroynotthechemicalstockpilesthemselves(explosionsofwhichmightspreadthegasfarandwide)butratherthemunitionsandfacilities
requiredtolaunchthemintobattle.Assadsregimewasnottheexplicittargetinanyoftheseplans,butsomeWhiteHouseaidesthought,orhoped,thathisstrengthmighterodeasasideeffect.

PeteSouza/WhiteHouse/HandoutviaReuters
ObamameetswithnationalsecuritystafftodiscussthesituationinSyriaintheWhiteHouseSituationRoom,August2013.
Obamaseemedtobeseriousaboutlaunchingthestrikes.HisaideswereinstructedtophonelegislatorsandjournaliststomakesuretheyhadreadanunclassifiedintelligencereportthattheWhiteHousehadjust
releasedprovingthatAssadwasbehindthechemicalattacks.AUNresolutionbackingtheuseofforceinSyriawasunlikelyRussiaandpossiblyChinawouldvetoit.SoObamaralliedArabandNATOnations
tojoinintheattack,oratleasttoendorseit.Hegotnosuchsupport,exceptfromFranceandtheUnitedKingdombutthenBritishPrimeMinisterDavidCameronrequestedauthorizationforanattackfrom
Parliament,whichvoteditdown.
OnAugust31,theNSCmetformorethantwohours.EveryonearoundthetableagreedthattheUnitedKingdomsbackpedaling,althoughregrettable,shouldnotaffectthepresidentsdecisionandthathe
shouldproceedwiththeairstrikes.Ateamoflawyersadvisedhimthathehadthelegalauthoritytodoso.Afterthemeeting,however,ObamafamouslytookawalkontheWhiteHousebacklawnwithhis
chiefofstaff,DenisMcDonough,andwhenhecamebacktotheSituationRoom,heannouncedthathehaddecidedtoletCongressvoteonthequestion.
Allofthepresidentsaidesandofficialsweresurprised,andnotinagoodway.ButObamaexplainedthatheneededsomeinstitutionalbackingforsuchadrastic,riskymove.Abombingcampaignmightkill
nearbycivilians,anditmighthavenoimpactonAssad.WhatifAssaddoubleddownandlaunchedmoreattacks,chemicalorotherwise?IftheUnitedStatesansweredwithstillmoreairstrikes,itwouldrisk
gettingsuckedintoacivilwar,andifitdidnothing,thatwouldbeworsestill:Washingtonwouldlookweaker,andAssadwouldemergestronger,thaniftheUnitedStateshaddonenothingtobeginwith.Some
WhiteHouseaideshadviewedairstrikesasaone-offproposition,butPentagonofficialshadarguedduringtheNSCmeetingsthatifObamawentaheadwithairstrikes(whichtheysupported),heshouldbe
preparedforescalation.ObamasuspectedthePentagonwasright.Whateverhedid,hisactions(orinaction)wouldsirecriticismanddisunitytheywouldreceivelittlesupportandcouldnotbesustained.
Tomanyaroundthetable,eachseparatepieceofObamasargumentmadesense,buttheoveralllogicdidnot.Maybeitwasabadideatoproceedwithairstrikes,butinthatcase,Obamashouldnothave
drawnthoseredlines:heshouldnothaverecitedtherationaleforairstrikestosomanydiplomats,journalists,andlegislatorsheshouldnothavetoldSecretaryofStateJohnKerrytomakeacaseforthe
bombings(inapowerfulspeechjusthoursbeforehechangedcourse)andaftermakingthisnewdecision,hecertainlyshouldnothavegoneaheadwithascheduledprime-timetelevisionaddressinwhichhe
detailedAssadsperfidy,laidoutthenationalsecurityconcerns,claimedhehadthelegalauthoritytorespondwithunilateralairstrikesandthenannouncedthathewassendingthemattertoCongress.

Attimes,Obamahastalkedmoreboldlythanhehasacted,creatinganeedlessgapbetweenwordsanddeeds.
OneNSCofficialwhowasrelievedthatthestrikesdidnottakeplaceneverthelesssaid,Wepaidapriceforpullingback.TheperceptionamongpeopleintheregionwasthattheycouldntrelyonObamato
pullthetrigger.AformertopWhiteHouseofficialsaid,WhenpeopleseriouspeoplesayObamaisindecisiveanduncertain,theyretalkingaboutthisepisodewithSyria.
TheWhiteHouselobbiedCongresstopassaresolutionauthorizingtheuseofforce,butthetaskwasclearlyfutile:mostRepublicansdidnotwanttodoanyfavorsforObama,andmanyDemocratswereleery
ofmilitaryaction.Intheend,Russiacametotherescue.AtapressconferenceonSeptember9,KerrywasaskedifAssadcoulddoanythingtoavoidairstrikes.Kerryreplied,Sure,hecouldturnoverevery
bitofhis[chemical]weaponstotheinternationalcommunitywithinthenextweek,withoutdelay,adding,butheisntaboutto.Toeveryonesastonishment,RussianForeignMinisterSergeyLavrovreplied
thathecouldmakethathappenandhedid.UnderRussianpressure,Assadsurrenderedverynearlyallofhischemicalweaponsfordestruction.
Obamaandhisaidesdeclaredvictory,notingthatthisdiplomaticsolutionwasmoreeffectivethanmilitarystrikeswouldhavebeenandthatthethreatofthosestrikeswaswhathaddrivenRussiatopressure
Assad.Thefirstclaimwasprobablytruethesecondprobablywasnot.ThefactisCongressseemedcertaintodefeatObamasmotionbeforeRussiasteppedin.ItispossiblethatPutinneverbelievedthat
ObamawouldfeelboundbyCongress,thathewouldfindsomewaytolaunchthestrikesanyway.Butmorepertinent,Russianleadershavealwaystakenpainstokeepweaponsofmassdestruction
biological,chemical,ornuclearoutoftheirallieshands:notsomuchbecausetheyabhorthoseweaponsasbecausetheyabhorthelossofcontrol.Moscowhaditsowninterestsinstrippingtheloosecannon
Assadoftheseghastlyweapons,andsincetheredlinecrisishadforcedObamatofocusonthechemicalsandnotonAssadsregime,thediplomaticsavewouldserveoneofRussiasvitalintereststhe
preservationofMoscowsonlyfootholdintheMiddleEast.
THEISISCRISIS
Theredlinefiascowasalowpointintheadministrationsforeignpolicy,butthetroublesinSyriawerehardlyover.Lessthanayearafterthechemicalweaponssettlement,ISISwhichObamahadrecently
dismissedasaJVversionofalQaedastormedMosul,thesecond-largestcityinIraq.TheU.S.-trainedIraqisoldiersfledatfirstcontact,andthearmedjihadistsbarreledontoRamadiandFallujahand,fora
while,cameperilouslyclosetoBaghdad.
ThejihadistshadstartedoutandwerelargelybasedinSyria,butObamafocusedhisanti-ISISstrategyonIraqbecausethatswhereitmighthavesomeeffecttheUnitedStates,afterall,hadresources,air
bases,andapartnershipofsortswithafunctioninggovernmentinthecountryandithadnoneofthosethingsinSyria,whereObamaremainedproperlywaryofdivingintoasectariancivilwar.Evenby
September2014,whenObamarealizedthatSyriacouldntbeignored(itwas,afterall,theheadquartersofISISoperations,andheknewverywellthattheIraqi-Syrianborderwasporoustothepointof
meaningless),hestucktowhathisaidescalledanIraqfirststrategy.Americanairstrikes,whichhadlongbegunagainstISISforcesinIraq,wouldbeextendedtoSyria,butonlyoverthepathsthatISIS
usedtotravelbetweenthetwocountries.ObamaalsoannouncedaprogramtotrainandequipmoderateSyrianrebelsonbasesinSaudiArabiabutnotedthattheywouldntbereadytofightISISformany
monthsclearly,Syriawasonthebackburner,atbest.
DaysafterObamasannouncement,ISISlaidsiegetoKobani,amainlyKurdishtownontheSyrian-Turkishborder.Thetownhadnostrategicsignificance,butamassacrewasinthemaking.Morethanthat,
ISISwassendingthousandsofjihadistsintothetownforminganeasyconcentratedtarget,whichneitherthePentagonnorObamacouldresist.Obamaorderedmassiveairstrikes,whichkilledanestimated
2,000to3,000ISISfighters.

AnexplosioncausedbyanairstrikeinKobani,Syria,November2014.
Inanotherunexpectedfeatureofthebattle,KurdishfightersgatheredtostaveoffISIS,foughtverycapably,andrecapturedthetown.ObamahadnotbeenopposedtogoingafterISISinsideSyriahejusthad
notseenasuitablepartnerthatcouldcarryoutthefightontheground.IntheSyrianKurds,hefoundone,andU.S.airstrikescontinued,oftenintandemwithKurdishgroundassaults.Atthesametime,the
CIAstartedcovertlyassistingagroupofrebelsinsouthernSyriawhosemainaimwastooverthrowAssad.Again,ObamahadopposedPetraeusplantoarmsomerebelsnotbecausehewasagainstarming
rebelsbutbecausehedidnotseehowthatparticularplanorthoseparticularrebelswouldsucceed.Thenewplanseemedmoreplausible,inpartbecausetheCIAandtheU.S.militaryhadgatheredalotmore
intelligenceandscopedoutreliableforcesoverthepreviousyear.(Aseparate$500millionPentagonprogramtotrainandequipasmallgroupofnorthernSyrianrebelstofightISISprovedpubliclydisastrous:
therebelsturnedouttobemoreinterestedinfightingAssadsarmythanISIS,takingthemoutofthefighttotraininSaudiArabiaonlydisorientedthem,andmoremilitantrebelskilledalmostallofthemon
theirreentryintoSyria.)
Viewedpiecebypiece,tacticalmovebytacticalmove,Obamasoperationsappearedtobemakingprogress.Butforeignfighterskeptfloodingtheregion,ISISwasbarelybudgedaside,andalthoughAssads
armyseemedimperiled,itwasstillquitelarge(ataround125,000troops)andrecoveredmuchofitsstrengthafterRussiasentintanksandjetfightersinSeptember2015.Russiasmoveraisedthehacklesof
someofObamascritics,whosawPutinastryingtorevivetheSovietempire.Obamadidntbite,andwiselyso.AtanNSCmeeting,hecautionedagainstviewingRussiasinterventionthroughaColdWar
prism.WearenotatwarwithRussiaoverSyria,hesaid,accordingtoofficialswhowereatthemeeting.Putinsvitalinterestinthishadmuchtodowithhisowndomesticpolitics,andanalarmedAmerican
responsewouldhaveplayedintohisgame.Finally,ObamadoubtedthattheRussianmilitarycampaignwouldhavemuchimpactonthebattle.
Nonetheless,Obamawasstillreceptivetoattractiveoptionsforhisownmilitaryposture.TheSyrianKurdswererackingupmoresuccesses(andrequiringmoreprotectionfromTurkey,whichwaspounding
themwithairstrikeswhileclaimingtobegoingafterISIS),andsoObamaapprovedplanstosendtheKurdsmoreammunitionandtodeployU.S.SpecialForcestojointheminraidsonISISstrongholds,
secretmissionsthatresultedinsixfatalitiesbeforeObamaannouncedtheactionspublicly.
Obamahasakeenlegalmind,whichserveshimandthecountrywellwhenhepokesholesinspeciousargumentsforriskypolicies.Butitalsoenableshimtorationalizehisownporouspositions:forinstance,
thatconductingjointraidsfallsinthecategoryofadviseandassist,notbootsontheground.Hecanalsomakefirmassurancesthathewillnotpushthesegroundforcesanyfurther,ignoringthathehas
laidthegroundworkandsetthelogicforhissuccessorintheWhiteHousetoescalatethefight,ifheorsheissoinclined.(Nottodrawpreciseparallels,butinasimilarvein,PresidentJohnF.Kennedyfirmly
resistedpressurefromtheJointChiefsofStafftodeploycombattroopstoVietnamyetexpandedthescopeandnumbersofadvisersthere,leavingPresidentLyndonJohnsontobelievehewasfollowingin
hispredecessorsfootstepswhenhepoured500,000U.S.troopsintothefight.)

SyriaiswhereObamastoolsfordealingwithcrisesprovedinadequate.
UmitBektas/REUTERSAblackflagbelongingtoISISnearKobani,October2014.
THESEARCHFORORDER
WhathasbeenmissinginObamasSyriapolicy,inallitsphases,isacoherentstrategy.HistwoaimsdefeatingISISandpressuringAssadtostepdownareinsomewayscontradictory.Assadscontinued
reignhasbeenamagnetforforeignSunnifighterstojoinISIS.Butintheshortrun,Assadsarmy,ifproperlydirected,couldbethemostpotentanti-ISISforcesecondperhapsonlytoIran,whichhasbeen
sendingmembersofitseliteQudsForcetoprotectAssadsregime.ObamahasbeenconstrainedfromforminganovertalliancewithAssadorIran,inpartbecausehehasneededSunnialliesEgypt,Turkey,
andtheGulfstatestodelegitimizeanddefeattheSunniradicalsofISISifhebondedwithShiiteIranoritsclientAssad,thosecountriesmightdropoutofthecoalition.
ThereinliestheheartoftheproblemnotonlywithObamasstrategyagainstISISbutwithanyU.S.presidentsstabatsuchastrategy.IfallthecountriesthatfearedandloathedISISwhichistosay,almost
allthecountriesintheregionjoinedforces,ISISwouldcrumbleinshortorder.Buteachofthosecountrieshasmorefearandloathingforatleastoneofitspotentialallies(TurkeyfortheKurdsandSaudi
ArabiaforIran,forexample).ForminganeffectivecoalitionhasthereforebeenallbutimpossibleafactthatISIScommandershaveshrewdlyexploited.
AsmanyofObamascriticscontend,acoherentregionalstrategynotjustaseriesofpiecemealresponsestocrisesisneededtosolvethisproblem.Butwhatisthisregionalstrategy?Whoshouldleadit?
Whatincentivesmightlurethepotentialcoalitionsplayerstosubordinatetheirindividualintereststothelargergoal?(InOctober,ObamadroppedhisreluctanceandinvitedIranandRussiatojointalksinVienna
todiscussapoliticalsolutiontotheSyriancrisisandajointfightagainstISIS.Theprospectsseemeddim,untilontheveryeveoftheconferenceISISagentsmountedcoordinatedterroristattacksinParis.
Althoughtheoddsremainlong,aplausiblepathtoasettlementopenedup.Obamaseemstohaverecognized,alongwithothers,thattranscendingthesectariandivideratherthanaccommodatingitand
formingallianceswithrivalsagainstlarger,commonthreatsistheonlywaytowardapeacefultransition.)
ThesecomplexitiesaresymptomaticofalargerphenomenonthataccountsforthesurgeofviolencethroughouttheMiddleEast:thebreakdownofthecolonialorderimposedattheendofWorldWarI.This
order,withitsartificialbordersdesignedtosplitorsuppresstribalidentities,wouldhavecollapsedafterWorldWarII(alongwiththeBritishandFrenchcolonies)butforthedeepfreezeimposedbytheCold
War.WhentheSovietUnionimploded,theColdWartoodissolved,alongwiththeinternationalsecuritysystemthatithadcreatedandsustainedfornearlyhalfacentury.Withthesubsequentdiffusionofglobal
powerandfragmentationofpowerblocs,thecollapseoftheMiddleEastsbordersandauthoritiesresumedaprocessacceleratedbyPresidentGeorgeW.Bushs2003invasionofIraq,whichdisruptedthe
balanceofpoweramongnations,sects,andtribesthathadkeptanuneasypeacebetweenShiitesandSunnis,notonlywithinIraqbutacrosstheregion,asthedisruptionsripplesspread.
SomeofObamascriticsclaimthatifhehadfoundawaytokeep10,000AmericantroopsinIraqinsteadofgoingthroughwithacompletewithdrawalin2011,therenewalofsectarianviolenceandtheriseof
ISIStofillthesubsequentpowervacuumwouldneverhavehappened.Butthisisextremelyunlikely,giventhatinanearliereraittookcloseto170,000U.S.combattroopsusingextraordinarymeasuresto
stemasimilartide,andeventhentheywereabletodosoonlytemporarily.Inanycase,Obamahadnochoiceinthematter.Thestatus-of-forcesagreement(SOFA)thatBushsignedin2008demanded,Allthe
UnitedStatesForcesshallwithdrawfromallIraqiterritorynolaterthanDecember31,2011.Obamawas,infact,amenabletokeeping5,000troopsinIraqforthelonghaulandsentemissariestoBaghdadto
seeifanextensioncouldbenegotiated,butrevisionstotheSOFAincludingaU.S.demandthatAmericantroopsenjoyimmunityfromIraqilaw,requiredparliamentaryapproval,andnofactionsintheIraqi
parliament,exceptperhapstheKurds,wouldvotefortheAmericanstostay.(ObamahasbeenabletosendmilitaryforcesbacktoIraqonlybecausetheSOFAexpiredafterthreeyears.)
AsforAfghanistan,theotherwarthatObamapromisedandtriedtoend,itkeepsragingaswell.InOctober2015,reversinganearlierpolicytowithdrawallU.S.troopsfromthecountrybytheendofhis
term,Obamaannouncedthat5,500wouldremaintheretocontinuetrainingandequippingAfghanforcesandtoconductcounterterroristoperations.

BAZRATNER/REUTERSU.S.soldiersfireahowitzerartillerypieceinKandaharProvince,Afghanistan,June2011.
ObamaannouncedthischangesoonafterTalibanfighterstookoverthenortherncityofKunduz,buthehadmadethedecisionafewmonthsearlier,accordingtoaseniorcounterterrorismofficial.Thenew
Afghanpresident,AshrafGhani,hadaskedObamanottowithdrawallU.S.troops,signedabilateralsecurityagreementgivingU.S.forceslegalprotections(anaccordthathispredecessor,HamidKarzai,had
refusedtoconsider),andpromisedreformstobroadeninclusivityandcrackdownoncorruption.Meanwhile,terroristgroupsstillflourishedacrosstheborderwithPakistan.NooneintheNSCopposed
sustainingacounterterroristforceonsomebaseintheregionherewasGhaniofferingthreeexistingbases.AninteragencystudyconductedbyGeneralMartinDempsey,thenthechairmanoftheJointChiefs
ofStaff,concludedthatthemissioncouldbesupportedwith5,500troops.Andsothedecisionwasmade.Kunduz(whichAfghansoldiersquicklyrecaptured)wasthenewspegthatpreemptedpolitical
objections.
ThetragedyofObamaspresidencyisthat,fromthebeginning,hehaswantedtoshiftawayfromthestagnantbattlefieldsinandaroundtheMiddleEastanddevotemoreattentiontotheAsia-Pacificregion,
withitsprospectsfordynamicgrowth,trade,and,intheformofChina,anexpansionistpowerthatneedstobeatoncecontainedmilitarilyandluredintotheglobaleconomy.ThisfocusonAsiacametobe
calledthepivot,orrebalancing,butObamahadrecognizeditsappealanddiscusseditasfarbackashis2008presidentialcampaign.Heunderstood,andstilldoes,thatthisiswheretheUnitedStatesfuture
interestsliebutthenever-endingcrisesoftheancientworldkeeppullinghimbackin.
LIMITEDINTERESTS,LIMITEDRISKS
AstheISISimbrogliowidened,yetanothercrisiserupted,thistimeinUkraine.AfterPutinbribedUkrainianPresidentViktorYanukovychwithanaidpackagetostophimfromsigninganassociationagreement
withtheEuropeanUnion,popularprotestsbrokeoutinKiev.WhenYanukovychcrackeddown,theprotestswidened,andhewasultimatelyforcedtoflee.PutinrespondedbysendingRussianforcestoseize
theCrimeanPeninsulaandsupportasecessionistrebellionineasternUkraine.
InNSCmeetingsheldtodecidehowtorespondtoRussiasmove,Obamaquicklyapprovedascriptofdenunciation,reinforcementsofU.S.militaryexercisesinandaroundeasternEuropesNATOallies
(especiallytheBalticstates),andastringofeconomicsanctions.
SomePentagonofficialswantedtogofurtherandsupplytheUkrainianarmywithlethaldefensiveweapons,especiallyTOWantitankmissiles.AccordingtoNSCofficials,VicePresidentJoeBidenstrongly
endorsedthisposition,sayingthattheUnitedStateshadamoralobligationtohelptheUkrainiansdefendthemselves,aswellasastrategicinterestinmakingPutinpayforhislandgrabandindeterringhimfrom
goingfurther.(NooneinanyNSCmeeting,however,advocatedsendingUkraineoffensiveweaponsordeployingU.S.troopstothecountry.)

CemOksuz/Pool/REUTERS
ObamatalkswithRussianPresidentVladimirPutinandU.S.NationalSecurityAdviserSusanRiceduringtheG20Leaders'SummitinAntalya,Turkey,November2015.
Intheend,Obamaapprovedtheprovisionofnonlethalmilitaryassistance,suchasnight-visionandradarequipment,andtrainingforUkrainesNationalGuard.Beyondthat,hewasopposed.TheUnitedStates
hadinterestsinUkraine,butnotvitalinterests.Therewerereasonstwopreviouspresidentshadconsidered,thendecidedagainst,invitingKievsleaderstojoinNATO.First,pollshadsuggestedthatlessthan
halfofUkrainianswantedmembership.Second,RussiasinterestsinUkraine,unliketheUnitedStates,werevital:RussiaandUkrainesharedaborderandalonghistoryoftrade,culturalexchange,andeven
commonstatehood.NoRussianleaderwouldstandbyasUkrainedriftedtoofarfromMoscowsorbit.
Obamalikestolookaheadtwoorthreesteps.(Hiscriticshaveseenthisasatechniqueforavoidingtheuseofforceothersseeitasamethodofrationaldecision-making.)Moscowcouldandwouldmatchor
surpassanylethalweaponsthattheWestsuppliedtoKiev.Thenwhat?IfWashingtonsentstillmorearms,itwouldriskgettingsuckedintoanarmsrace,andtheviolencewouldintensify.IftheUnitedStates
didnotrespondinkind,theWestwouldhavelostthecontestObamawouldlookweaker,andRussiastronger,thanifhehadnotsentanyarmsinthefirstplace.
ThiswasObamasfirstprincipleinalldiscussionsaboutthecrisis:hewasnotgoingtoriskawarwithRussiaforthesakeofUkraine.Atonemeeting,hesaid,IfIwantedtoinvadeCanadaorMexico,noone
coulddomuchaboutit.ThesamewastrueofPutinandUkraine.
Still,Obamaputahighvalueonenforcinginternationalnorms,oneofwhichwastheinviolabilityofborders.HefeltitnecessarytomakeRussiapayforitsviolationthequestionwashow.Militaryescalation,
 inthiscontext,wasagameRussiawouldwin,butescalationofsanctionswasonetheUnitedStatescouldwin,ifObamacouldkeepEuropeanstatesonboard.Thiswasachallenge,formanyEuropean
countriesweremorereliantonRussianenergysuppliesthantheUnitedStateswasandthereforemorevulnerabletoeconomicreprisalsfromRussia.TheywerealsodeadsetagainstriskingwaroverUkraine.If
Obamawentupthemilitaryladder,heknewtheywoulddropoutofthesanctionsregime.

Obamaskeenlegalmindallowshimtorationalizehisownporouspositions.
Atleastthroughthefallof2015,Obamaspolicyhasworked.DespitePutinseffortstosplitthetransatlanticalliance,itsmembershaveheldtightonthesanctions,andthecease-firenegotiatedinMinskin
Februaryhasheld,too.PutinslikelygoalinUkrainewastoweakenthecountryscentralgovernmentandkeepitfrommovingclosertotheWest.Atthat,hehassucceeded.IfObamaandthewestern
Europeannationshadwantedtostrikebackonthatfront,tensofbillionsofdollarsineconomicaidwouldhavemeantalotmorethanafewhundredantitankmissiles.ButbeyondarelativelypaltryInternational
MonetaryFundgrant,nooneseemedtowanttogodownthatroad.
PATIENCEANDPRAGMATISM
SohowdoesObamasrecordstackup?Thepresidenthasbeenbesiegedbyforeignpolicycrises,constrainedbydiminishedAmericanpower,andpressuredbyopponentsathomeandalliesabroadtotake
actionandshowleadership,evenwhendealingwithintractableproblems.Hehaslearnedonthejob,withhisinstinctsforcautionreinforcedbytheill-fatedLibyanintervention.Andhehas,attimes,talked
moreboldlythanhehasacted,creatinganeedlessgapbetweenwordsanddeeds.
Andyetforthemostpart,hehasstayedtruetothetemplateofhisNobeladdress,keepingsightofthebigpictureasothershavegottenlostintheshrubs.Hiscautionaboutembarkingonunnecessarymilitary
adventuresanddesiretoavoidescalatorymilitaryspiralsseemwise.Obamahasalsoprovedremarkablypatientwithdrawn-outdiplomaticnegotiations,eventhoseunlikelytobearfruit.Someofthese,suchas
theIsraeli-Palestinianpeacetalks,havepredictablygonenowhere,butothers,suchastheopeningtoCubaandthenucleardealwithIran,havebeenstrikinglysuccessful.
Thesuccessesandfailuresstem,inpart,fromthedoggedoptimismofObamassecond-termsecretaryofstate,Kerry.ItisdoubtfulthatKerrysmorecautiouspredecessor,Clinton,ormostotherpast
secretariesofstate,wouldhavestuckwiththenucleartalkswithIranforaslongasKerrydidbutneitherwouldshehavespentsomuchtimeandefforttryingtojump-startamoribundMiddleEastpeace
process.
OnedownsidetoKerrysvisionofhisjob,asspecialenvoytotheworldsmosthopelesslogjams,isthatitleavesmuchoftherestoftheworldabitanxious.ThishasbeenespeciallytrueoftheUnitedStates
alliesinAsiamostofallJapan,whoseleadersdemandconstanthandholding.DuringObamasfirstterm,KurtCampbell,theassistantsecretaryofstateforEastAsianandPacificaffairs,phonedhis
counterpartinTokyoeverydayandmetface-to-facewiththeJapaneseambassadorthreetimesaweek.OfficialswhodealwithAsianaffairssaythatafterCampbellleft,andKerryturnedtheState
Departmentsfocusalmostexclusivelytohigh-profilepeacemissions,Tokyofeltabandoned.
Still,thishardlyamountedtoacrisis.First,whenBeijingstartedflexingitsnavalmusclesintheSouthChinaSea,Japan(andAustraliaandSouthKorea)clungeverclosertoWashington,howeverfrustratedit
feltattimes.Second,anotherbigpartoftheUnitedStatesrelationswithAsiainvolvessimplyshowingupandalthoughtheassistantsecretarymaynotbecallingasoften,ObamaandKerryshowupatallthe
Asiansecurityandeconomicsummits.Anxietyaboutabandonmentremainsithasbeenafactorfordecades,atleastsincetheUnitedStatespulledoutofVietnamandsecretlyreachedouttoChinaduringthe
presidencyofRichardNixon.ButObamasmissteps,whichhavebotheredalliesintheMiddleEast,havenotweighedatallonthoseinEastAsia.DanielSneider,theassociatedirectorforresearchattheWalter
H.ShorensteinAsia-PacificResearchCenteratStanfordUniversity,hasmetprivatelywithdozensofpoliticalandmilitaryleadersfromJapanandSouthKorea.Hesays,Iveneverheardanyofthemsaya
wordabouttheredlineinSyria.
OnAugust5,2015,thepresidentdeliveredaspiritedspeechatAmericanUniversitydefendingthenucleardealthatheandfiveotherworldpowershadnegotiatedwithIran.Severaltimes,hequotedKennedys
famousAmericanUniversityspeechin1963callingforanendtotheColdWarmindsetandanewstrategybasedonapracticalandattainablepeace,onebasednotonasuddenrevolutioninhumannature
butonagradualevolutioninhumaninstitutionsonaseriesofconcreteactionsandeffectiveagreements.
Laterthatday,Obamaheldanon-the-recordroundtablediscussionwithtencolumnistsintheWhiteHouse.Whenmyturncametoaskaquestion,InotedthatKennedyhaddeliveredhisspeechafterseveral
crisesinwhichherealizedthathisadviserswereoftenwrongandthatheshouldplacemoretrustinhisowninstincts.Whatlessons,IaskedObama,hadhelearnedinhiscrises?Whatdecisionsmighthehave
madedifferently,hadheknownthenwhatheknowsnow?Heanswered:
IwouldsaythatIhavebeenconsistentinmybroadviewofhowAmericanpowershouldbedeployedandtheviewthatweunderestimateourpowerwhenwerestrictittojustourmilitarypower...
.Theresnodoubtthat,aftersixandahalfyears,IamthatmuchmoreconfidentintheassessmentsImakeandcanprobablyseearoundthecornersfasterthanIdidwhenIfirstcameintooffice.
Themapisntalwaystheterritory,andyouhavetokindofwalkthroughittogetafeelforit.
IntermsofdecisionsImake,IdothinkthatIhaveabettersenseofhowmilitaryactioncanresultinunintendedconsequences.AndIamconfirmedinmybeliefthatmuchofthetime,weare
makingjudgmentsbasedonpercentages,and...therearealwaysgoingtobesomecomplications.
AndsomaybeatthesametimeasImmoreconfidenttoday,Imalsomorehumble.Andthatspartofthereasonwhy,whenIseeasituationlikethisone[thepossibilityofanucleardealwith
Iran],wherewecanachieveanobjectivewithaunifiedworldbehindusandwepreserveourhedgeagainstitsnotworkingout,Ithinkitwouldbefoolisheventragicforustopassuponthat
opportunity.
ThisarticlehasbeenupdatedtocorrectthedatethatPresidentObamadeliveredaspeechabouttheIrannucleardealatAmericanUniversity.ItwasAugust5,2015,notApril5.

 From: DavidKramer<David.J.Kramer@asu.edu>
Senttime: 01/01/201605:24:39AM
To: RobertOtto<robertotto25@gmail.com>
Subject: Re:LackofRussiaexpertshassomeinU.S.worried-TheWashingtonPost

Indeed!

SentfrommyiPhone

OnJan1,2016,at8:19AM,RobertOtto<robertotto25@gmail.com>wrote:

http://cddrl.fsi.stanford.edu/publications/getting_russia_right

HistorianswillsomedaywritethatRussiare-enteredtheWesterncommunityofstatesasamarketdemocracyattheendof
the20thcentury.Youwouldn'tthinkso,however,fromthevituperativeandpessimistictoneofmostcontemporary
commentaryintheUnitedStatesaboutRussiaandU.S.-Russianrelations.FocusingonluridaccountsofRussianmoney
laundering,cronyism,andwidespreadpoliticalandeconomicdisarray,politiciansandpunditshaveblastedtheClinton
administrationformishandlingacrucialstrategicrelationshipand"losing"Russia.

Youdthinkthatanyonewiththis,um,historywouldbealittlelesscategoricalandabitmorehumbleinhis
publicstatements.

OnDec31,2015,at5:27AM,DavidKramer<David.J.Kramer@asu.edu>wrote:

ToyouandAnne,too,Bob.

Yes,thewholeresetwasbasedonmisperceptionsandbadinformation--allofithis!

SentfrommyiPhone

OnDec31,2015,at5:25AM,RobertOtto<robertotto25@gmail.com>wrote:

Yes.HappyNewYear,David

Tryingtofigureoutdecision-makinginRussiaonforeignpolicyrequiresagreatdealof
qualitativedepthandthatrequiresnewinvestmentandknowledge,McFaulcontinued.
WeregoingtodisagreewiththeKremlinandwiththeRussiansoncertainissuesover
time,butwhatwecanthaveisdisagreementsbasedonmisperceptionandbad
information.

OnThu,Dec31,2015at5:20AM,DavidKramer<David.J.Kramer@asu.edu>wrote:
Saturdayat8:30,right?

SentfrommyiPhone

OnDec31,2015,at5:19AM,RobertOtto<robertotto25@gmail.com>wrote:

That'sapartofMike'songoingpolemicwithTom.

OnThu,Dec31,2015at5:09AM,DavidKramer
<David.J.Kramer@asu.edu>wrote:
TheRojanskyquoteispricelessforaguywhoneverworkedinUSG--
andsowhataboutBelarus.AndMcFaul'squoteneartheendabout
Russianotbeingadecliningpower.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/news/powerpost/wp/2015/12/30/lack-
of-russia-experts-has-the-u-s-playing-catch-up/?
postshare=1351451515733124&tid=ss_fb-bottom

SentfrommyiPhone
 From: RobertOtto<robertotto25@gmail.com>
Senttime: 01/04/201612:23:04PM
To: FionaHill<fhill@brookings.edu>
Subject: FredKaplan:HowObamaMakesForeignPolicy|ForeignAffairs

http://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/2015-12-07/obamas-way?cid=emc-Dec15_Remail_A-content-
123115&sp_mid=50368504&sp_rid=cm9iZXJ0b3R0bzI1QGdtYWlsLmNvbQS2&spMailingID=50368504&spUserID=
OTQ5NTcwNTM2OTIS1&spJobID=824531828&spReportId=ODI0NTMxODI4S0

Obama'sWay
OnJanuary28,2009,barelyaweekintohispresidency,BarackObamametwiththeU.S.militarystopgeneralsandadmiralson
theirownturf,insidethetank,theJointChiefsofStaffsconferenceroomonthesecondfloorofthePentagon.Aseniorofficial
recalledthenewpresidentasremarkablyconfidentcomposed,relaxed,butalsodeferential,nottryingtoacttoomuchthe
commanderinchief.Obamawalkedaroundtheroom,introducinghimselftoeveryonehethankedthemandtheentirearmed
forcesfortheirserviceandsacrificethenhesatdownforafreewheelingdiscussionoftheworldschallenges,regionbyregion,
crisisbycrisis.Hewasthemaninfull,theofficialsaid,fluentoneveryissue,butmorethanthatasurprisetotheofficers,who
hadbeenleeryofthisyoung,inexperiencedDemocrathedisplayedadeepstreakofrealism.

Atonepoint,Obamaremarkedthathewasnotthesortofpersonwhodrivesdownastreetwishinghecouldparkwhereverhe
likes.Ifhesawanopenspot,evenonethatrequiredsometrickyparallelparking,hewouldbefinewithsqueezingintoit.Obamas
meaningwasclear:hehadbeendealtabadhand(twounpopularwars,alienatedallies,thedeepestrecessionindecades),buthe
wouldfindawaytodealwiththeworldasitwas.

Sevenyearslater,manyofficersanddefenseofficials,includingsomewhoweresoimpressedwithObamaatthestart,lookbackat
hispresidencyasfollowingadifferentstyleofgoverning.TheylaudthehistoricaccomplishmentstheIrannucleardeal,the
openingtoCuba,theTrans-PacificPartnership,theprevention(sofar)ofanotherterroristattackonAmericansoilandthey
acknowledgethathehasoftentriedtomakethebestofbadchoices.Buttoooften,theysay,hehasavoidedtakingaction,waiting
forconditionstogetbettercirclingtheblockand,inhisownmetaphor,waitingforabetterparkingspottoopenup.

ThisisacommoncritiqueofObamasforeignpolicy:thatheevadesharddecisions,thatheisallergictomilitaryforceifitrisks
Americancasualtiesorescalation,thatthereisoftenamismatchbetweenhiswordsandhisdeeds.Thisisapattern,oneretired
four-stargeneralsaid.Heissuessternwarnings,thendoesnothing.ItdamagesAmericancredibility.

Isthechargetrue?Andtotheextentthatithassomevalidity,howmuchcanbelaidatObamasfeet,andhowmuchshouldbe
attributedtotheintractabilityoftheproblemshehasfaced?Wouldadifferentsortofpresidenthavehandledthedecadeschallenges
better,andifso,how?

ThefollowingexaminationofkeycrisesanddecisionsisbasedonconversationsIhavehadwithdozensofofficialsacrossthespan
ofObamaspresidencyandwith20mid-tosenior-levelofficials(pastandpresent,almostallonabackgroundbasis)interviewed
specificallyforthisarticle.

THELESSONOFLIBYA

InDecember2009,ObamajourneyedtoOslotoreceivetheNobelPeacePrize.Theawardwaspremature,tosaytheleast,buthe
usedhisacceptancespeechtolaydowntheprinciplesofaforeignpolicyhehopedtofollowasophisticatedgrapplingwiththe
tensionsbetweenidealismandrealism.ItwasadaringspeechforaPeacePrizerecipient.Tosaythatforcemaysometimesbe
necessaryisnotacalltocynicism,hesaid.Itisarecognitionofhistory,theimperfectionofman,andthelimitsofreason.
Nationsmustadheretostandardsthatgoverntheuseofforce,andajust,lastingpeacemustbebasedontheinherentrightsand
dignityofeveryindividual.Still,Americacannotactalone,exceptonmattersofvitalnationalinterest,andmereloftyrhetoric
abouthumanrightsonlysustainsacripplingstatusquo.Engagementwithrepressiveregimesmaylackthesatisfyingpurityof
indignation,butnorepressiveregimecanmovedownanewpathunlessithasthechoiceofanopendoor.

BenjaminRhodes,Obamasdeputynationalsecurityadviserforstrategiccommunications,said,Whenpeopleaskmetosummarize
[Obamas]foreignpolicy,Itellthemtotakeacloselookatthatspeech.AnotherformertopWhiteHouseofficialcalledita
templatetohowheapproachesproblems,aframeworkforhowhethinksaboutU.S.power.Whetherhefollowedthetemplate
howhegrappledinactionwiththetensionsherecognizedintheorywouldbe,byhisownstandard,themeasureofhispresidency.

TheearlyyearsofObamastermweretakenupwithchallengesinheritedfromtheBushadministration,especiallythewarsin
AfghanistanandIraq.Atthestartof2011,however,astringofnewproblemsemerged,asdomesticprotestsagainstauthoritarian
leadersbrokeoutacrosstheMiddleEast.TheBenAliregimeinTunisiafellinJanuary,andtheMubarakregimeinEgyptfollowedin
earlyFebruary.BylateFebruary,rebelsopposedtotheLibyandictatorMuammaral-Qaddafihadseizedcontrolincitiessuchas
Benghazi,andthedictatorsdaysseemednumbered.Butthenthetideofwarreversed,andQaddafisforcesmovedtocrushthe
uprising.
 ObamaattheNobelPeacePrizeawardceremonyinOslo,December2009.

Withtensofthousandsofcivilianlivesatrisk,theObamaadministration,whichhadcomeoutinsupportoftherebels,faceda
difficultchoice.ThemembersoftheArabLeaguewereunanimouslyimploringtheUnitedStatestogetinvolved.NATOallieswere
keentointerveneinsupportofthearmedrebels,andaUNSecurityCouncilresolutionwasintheworks.AtaNationalSecurity
Councilmeetingcalledtodiscussthecrisis,SecretaryofStateHillaryClinton,U.S.AmbassadortotheUNSusanRice,andsomeof
ObamasNSCstaffarguedforaction,citingmoralimperativesandtheprospectofatrulymultilateralforce.Butaccordingto
severalpeoplepresentatthemeeting,Pentagonofficialsopposedintervening,pointingoutthattheUnitedStateshadnovitalinterests
inLibyaandthatanyseriouscommitmentwouldgetWashingtonboggeddown,possiblyforyears.

Twooptionsweresetbeforethepresident:goinallthewayastheleaderofanalliance,ordontgoinatall.Obamasresponsewas
tocomeupwithathirdway,whichemergedashethoughtthroughtheproblemoutloud.Earlyon,hearticulatedtheprinciplesthat
wouldunderliewhatevercoursehechose:noU.S.bootsontheground,nomilitaryactionatallunlessithadalegalbasisanda
decentchanceofsucceeding,and,finally,anappropriatedivisionoflaborwithalliestheU.S.militarywouldprovideitsunique
capabilities(amongthemprecisionbombingandintelligencesharing),butU.S.allies,whohadafargreaterinterestintheconflicts
outcome,wouldassumethebruntofprotectingLibyanciviliansandrestoringorderafterthefighting.

InaninterviewatthetimewithTheNewYorker,anObamaadviser(whoseidentityremainsunknown)dubbedthisapproach
leadingfrombehind,atermthatwouldcomeinformuchderision.Butincontext,itmadesense,anditfitObamasoutlookonthe
roleandlimitsofmilitaryforce,thedistinctionbetweeninterestsandvitalinterests,andtheneedtoaligntheinstrumentsofpower
withtheintensityofthoseinterests.

Thefirstphaseoftheresultingoperationwasultimatelyasuccess.ThecombinationofU.S.airstrikesandintelligence,NATOair
support,andrebelmovementsonthegroundledtothedefeatofQaddafisforcesand(althoughthiswasnotanexplicitaimofthe
campaign)thekillingoftheLibyanleaderhimself.Butthesecondphasewasafailure:anewgovernmentwasneverfullyformed,
therebelfactionssquabblesdegeneratedintocivilwar,andthecountryssocialorder(suchasitwas)collapsed.

TheproblemwasthattheNATOalliesthathadpromisedtoleadthestabilizationphaseofapost-QaddafiLibyadidnotfollow
through,inpartbecausethisphaseturnedouttobemuchmoreviolentthantheyhadanticipated.Restoring(or,really,creating)
orderwouldhaverequiredarmedinterventionandpossiblyseriouscombatontheground,amissionforwhichEuropeanstates
hadlittlecapacityandlessappetite.

Obamarecognizedthefailure,acknowledginginhisSeptember2015speechtotheUNGeneralAssembly,Evenaswehelpedthe
Libyanpeoplebringanendtothereignofatyrant,ourcoalitioncouldhaveandshouldhavedonemoretofillavacuumleftbehind.
AndthelessonweighedonhimwhenconsideringhowtohandleasimilarcrisisinSyria.

ZohraBensemra/REUTERSLibyanrebelsattheairportinMisrata,May2011.
THESYRIANSINKHOLE

AstheArabSpringevolved,demonstrationsbrokeoutinDamascusagainstSyrianPresidentBasharal-Assad.Assadstruckback
withextremeforce,killingprotestersfirstbythehundreds,thenbythethousands.Gradually,arebelforcearose,andthecountry
plungedintocivilwar.WiththeUnitedStateshavingalreadyintervenedinLibyaundersimilarcircumstances,thequestionnaturally
arosewhetheritwouldinterveneinSyriaaswell.

InanNSCmeeting,Obamaspelledoutthedifferencesbetweenthetwoconflicts.Libyasfightinghadtakenplaceonanopen
desert,whichallowedforcleartargetingSyriawasenmeshedinurbanwarfare,withcivilians,rebels,andsoldiersintermingled.The
LibyanrebelshadhadachanceatformingacohesivegovernmenttherewerenosuchpossibilitiesinSyria.Nootheroutsidepower
wascallingontheUnitedStatestointervenethistimearound.Finally,theconflictwascascadingintoaproxywarforthe
regionwideSunni-Shiiteconfrontation.NotonlydidtheUnitedStateshavelittleatstakeinthisfight,butitalsohadlittleabilityto
influenceitsdirectionoroutcome.Accordingtoseveralattendeesofthemeeting,nobodyreallydisagreedwiththesepoints.

Andyettheadministrationhadaligneditselfwiththeseasonspopularuprisings.InMay,inaspeechofuncharacteristicexuberance,
Obamalikenedtheturmoiltopreviouserasofdemocraticrevolution.HespokewithparticularurgencyaboutSyria,proclaimingthat
Assadmuststopshootinghisownpeopleandallowhumanrightsmonitorstoenterthecountry.InAugust,Obamajoinedwiththe
leadersofFrance,Germany,andtheUnitedKingdomincallingonAssadtostepdown.Syriasrulerwasonthewrongsideof
history,Obamasaid,declaringthatthetimehascomeforPresidentAssadtostepaside.

Forthemostpart,ObamahasstayedtruetothetemplateofhisNobeladdress,keepingsightofthebigpictureas
othershavegottenlostintheshrubs.

Suchrhetoricwasdrivenbytwofactors.First,theaidesinObamasinnercirclefewofwhomknewanythingaboutMiddle
EasternpoliticsreallydidthinkAssadsregimewasnearingcollapse.Second,giventhatapparentfact,theyfeltitwasbesttoput
theadministrationpubliclyontherightsideofhistory,especiallysincealliednationswerecallingonObamatoshowleadership.

Therhetoricwasnotentirelyempty.Obamadidaskhismilitaryandintelligencechiefstocomeupwithplanstospeedhistoryalong,
andinthesummerof2012,CIADirectorDavidPetraeuslaidoutaschemetoarmagroupofmoderateSyrianrebels.Theplan,
whichPetraeushadformulatedwithSaudiPrinceBandarbinSultanandafewotherArabsecuritychiefs,calledforshippingsmall
arms,mainlyrifles,toasmall,selectgroupoftheSyrianopposition.Petraeusdidnotpromisethemoonheexplicitlysaidthatthese
rebelscouldnotoustAssadrightawayandthatthegoalwastoputpressureonAssad.IfyouresayingAssadmustgo,hewas
tellingthepresident,hereshowtheCIAcanhelp.TheplanhadthebackingofClinton,SecretaryofDefenseLeonPanetta,andthe
JointChiefsofStaff.Butthepresidentrejectedit.

GORANTOMASEVIC/REUTERS

AFreeSyrianArmyfighterinAleppo,August2012.

ObamawasnotopposedtotakingactionhehadaskedPetraeusandPanettaforoptions.Buthewasopposedtodoingsomething
merelyforthesakeofdoingsomething,andthePetraeusplanseemedtofallintothatcategory.Whoweretheserebels,heasked?
CouldtheUnitedStatesreallydistinguishthegoodonesfromthebadones?(Petraeusinsistedthathecould,butObamawas
unconvinced.)Iftheserebelsdidemergeasathreattotheregime,wouldIran,whichhadinvestedheavilyinAssad,simplystand
by,orwoulditintervene(asObamathoughtmorelikely)?

InNSCmeetings,severalattendeesrecall,Petraeusacknowledgedthatitmighttakeyearsfortherebelstomountaneffective
challengetoAssadsrule.Meanwhile,theCIAsplanmightthrowAssadpsychologicallyandgiveWashingtonskininthegame,a
pathtoinfluenceoverthelonghaul.ThiswasnotawinningargumentwithObama:hewaslookingforsomethingthathadachance
ofsucceedinginthenearterm,andhedidnotwantskininagameplayedinthequagmireofasectariancivilwar.WhilePetraeus
wasworkinguptheplan,ObamaaskedtheCIAtoproduceapaperonhowofteninthepastU.S.armshadsucceededinhelping
rebelsousthostilegovernments.Theanswer:notveryoften.Thatsealedthecase.

Althoughgroundedinlogicandhistory,therejectionofinterventioninSyriasetoffthefirstwavesofdiscontentoverObamas
foreignpolicyingeneralthenotionthathedidnotwanttouseforce,thathewasalwaysonthelookoutforargumentsthat
rationalizedthisdisinclination,thathetalkedboldbutfailedtofollowthrough,whichmadeallhiscommitmentsringhollow.

Lateron,astheself-proclaimedIslamicState(alsoknownasISIS)tookcontrolofvastswathsofIraqandSyria,Obamascritics
arguedthatifonlythepresidenthadacceptedPetraeusplan,ISISmightnothavefoundafoothold.Buttheclaimseemsfar-fetched
eventhoughafewofObamascloseadvisersallow,inretrospect,thatitmighthavebeenworthgivingPetraeusoptionachance.
Inanycase,twoyearslater,Obamaapprovedasimilarplan.However,whentheAmerican-backedrebelsstartedrackingup
victoriesonthebattlefieldandappearedtobeclosinginonAssad,Obamaspredictionofwhatwouldhappennextcametrue:the
IraniansredoubledtheirsupportforAssad,sendingQudsForcesoldierstofighttherebels.AndRussianPresidentVladimirPutin,
fearingthelossofMoscowssoleoutpostoutsidetheformerSovietUnion,senttanks,planes,andmissilestosupporttheSyrian
army.

REDLINE,REDFACE

SyriaiswhereObamasforeignpolicymetitsmostbrutalchallenge,andwherehistoolsfordealingwithcriseswords,logic,
persistentquestions,andsequentialproblemsolvingprovedinadequate.

Atleastfivetimesintheeight-monthspanbetweenAugust2012andApril2013,Obamaoradministrationofficialspubliclywarned
Assadthatusingchemicalweaponsagainstrebelsandprotesterswouldcrossaredline.Itwouldmarkagamechangerfromour
perspective,Obamaelaboratedononeoccasion.Therewouldbeenormousconsequences,hesaidonanother.Itwouldbe
totallyunacceptable,andAssadwouldbeheldaccountable.Yetdespitesuchutterances,saycloseaidesandofficials,the
presidentneverorderedupaplanforwhattodoifAssadcrossedtheline.

Then,onAugust21,2013,rocketshellscontainingsaringasslammedrebel-controlledareasintheDamascussuburbs,killingan
estimated1,500people.Theredlinehadbeencrossed.Obamaswiftlydecidedtoretaliate.Attackplansweredrawnup,mostof
themdesignedtodestroynotthechemicalstockpilesthemselves(explosionsofwhichmightspreadthegasfarandwide)butrather
themunitionsandfacilitiesrequiredtolaunchthemintobattle.Assadsregimewasnottheexplicittargetinanyoftheseplans,but
someWhiteHouseaidesthought,orhoped,thathisstrengthmighterodeasasideeffect.

PeteSouza/WhiteHouse/HandoutviaReuters
 ObamameetswithnationalsecuritystafftodiscussthesituationinSyriaintheWhiteHouseSituation
Room,August2013.

Obamaseemedtobeseriousaboutlaunchingthestrikes.Hisaideswereinstructedtophonelegislatorsandjournaliststomakesure
theyhadreadanunclassifiedintelligencereportthattheWhiteHousehadjustreleasedprovingthatAssadwasbehindthechemical
attacks.AUNresolutionbackingtheuseofforceinSyriawasunlikelyRussiaandpossiblyChinawouldvetoit.SoObamarallied
ArabandNATOnationstojoinintheattack,oratleasttoendorseit.Hegotnosuchsupport,exceptfromFranceandtheUnited
KingdombutthenBritishPrimeMinisterDavidCameronrequestedauthorizationforanattackfromParliament,whichvotedit
down.

OnAugust31,theNSCmetformorethantwohours.EveryonearoundthetableagreedthattheUnitedKingdomsbackpedaling,
althoughregrettable,shouldnotaffectthepresidentsdecisionandthatheshouldproceedwiththeairstrikes.Ateamoflawyers
advisedhimthathehadthelegalauthoritytodoso.Afterthemeeting,however,ObamafamouslytookawalkontheWhiteHouse
backlawnwithhischiefofstaff,DenisMcDonough,andwhenhecamebacktotheSituationRoom,heannouncedthathehad
decidedtoletCongressvoteonthequestion.

Allofthepresidentsaidesandofficialsweresurprised,andnotinagoodway.ButObamaexplainedthatheneededsome
institutionalbackingforsuchadrastic,riskymove.Abombingcampaignmightkillnearbycivilians,anditmighthavenoimpacton
Assad.WhatifAssaddoubleddownandlaunchedmoreattacks,chemicalorotherwise?IftheUnitedStatesansweredwithstill
moreairstrikes,itwouldriskgettingsuckedintoacivilwar,andifitdidnothing,thatwouldbeworsestill:Washingtonwouldlook
weaker,andAssadwouldemergestronger,thaniftheUnitedStateshaddonenothingtobeginwith.SomeWhiteHouseaideshad
viewedairstrikesasaone-offproposition,butPentagonofficialshadarguedduringtheNSCmeetingsthatifObamawentahead
withairstrikes(whichtheysupported),heshouldbepreparedforescalation.ObamasuspectedthePentagonwasright.Whatever
hedid,hisactions(orinaction)wouldsirecriticismanddisunitytheywouldreceivelittlesupportandcouldnotbesustained.

Tomanyaroundthetable,eachseparatepieceofObamasargumentmadesense,buttheoveralllogicdidnot.Maybeitwasabad
ideatoproceedwithairstrikes,butinthatcase,Obamashouldnothavedrawnthoseredlines:heshouldnothaverecitedthe
rationaleforairstrikestosomanydiplomats,journalists,andlegislatorsheshouldnothavetoldSecretaryofStateJohnKerryto
makeacaseforthebombings(inapowerfulspeechjusthoursbeforehechangedcourse)andaftermakingthisnewdecision,he
certainlyshouldnothavegoneaheadwithascheduledprime-timetelevisionaddressinwhichhedetailedAssadsperfidy,laidoutthe
nationalsecurityconcerns,claimedhehadthelegalauthoritytorespondwithunilateralairstrikesandthenannouncedthathewas
sendingthemattertoCongress.

Attimes,Obamahastalkedmoreboldlythanhehasacted,creatinganeedlessgapbetweenwordsanddeeds.

OneNSCofficialwhowasrelievedthatthestrikesdidnottakeplaceneverthelesssaid,Wepaidapriceforpullingback.The
perceptionamongpeopleintheregionwasthattheycouldntrelyonObamatopullthetrigger.AformertopWhiteHouseofficial
said,WhenpeopleseriouspeoplesayObamaisindecisiveanduncertain,theyretalkingaboutthisepisodewithSyria.

TheWhiteHouselobbiedCongresstopassaresolutionauthorizingtheuseofforce,butthetaskwasclearlyfutile:most
RepublicansdidnotwanttodoanyfavorsforObama,andmanyDemocratswereleeryofmilitaryaction.Intheend,Russiacame
totherescue.AtapressconferenceonSeptember9,KerrywasaskedifAssadcoulddoanythingtoavoidairstrikes.Kerryreplied,
Sure,hecouldturnovereverybitofhis[chemical]weaponstotheinternationalcommunitywithinthenextweek,withoutdelay,
adding,butheisntaboutto.Toeveryonesastonishment,RussianForeignMinisterSergeyLavrovrepliedthathecouldmakethat
happenandhedid.UnderRussianpressure,Assadsurrenderedverynearlyallofhischemicalweaponsfordestruction.

Obamaandhisaidesdeclaredvictory,notingthatthisdiplomaticsolutionwasmoreeffectivethanmilitarystrikeswouldhavebeen
andthatthethreatofthosestrikeswaswhathaddrivenRussiatopressureAssad.Thefirstclaimwasprobablytruethesecond
probablywasnot.ThefactisCongressseemedcertaintodefeatObamasmotionbeforeRussiasteppedin.ItispossiblethatPutin
neverbelievedthatObamawouldfeelboundbyCongress,thathewouldfindsomewaytolaunchthestrikesanyway.Butmore
pertinent,Russianleadershavealwaystakenpainstokeepweaponsofmassdestructionbiological,chemical,ornuclearoutof
theirallieshands:notsomuchbecausetheyabhorthoseweaponsasbecausetheyabhorthelossofcontrol.Moscowhaditsown
interestsinstrippingtheloosecannonAssadoftheseghastlyweapons,andsincetheredlinecrisishadforcedObamatofocuson
thechemicalsandnotonAssadsregime,thediplomaticsavewouldserveoneofRussiasvitalintereststhepreservationof
MoscowsonlyfootholdintheMiddleEast.

THEISISCRISIS

Theredlinefiascowasalowpointintheadministrationsforeignpolicy,butthetroublesinSyriawerehardlyover.Lessthanayear
afterthechemicalweaponssettlement,ISISwhichObamahadrecentlydismissedasaJVversionofalQaedastormedMosul,
thesecond-largestcityinIraq.TheU.S.-trainedIraqisoldiersfledatfirstcontact,andthearmedjihadistsbarreledontoRamadiand
Fallujahand,forawhile,cameperilouslyclosetoBaghdad.

ThejihadistshadstartedoutandwerelargelybasedinSyria,butObamafocusedhisanti-ISISstrategyonIraqbecausethatswhere
itmighthavesomeeffecttheUnitedStates,afterall,hadresources,airbases,andapartnershipofsortswithafunctioning
governmentinthecountryandithadnoneofthosethingsinSyria,whereObamaremainedproperlywaryofdivingintoa
sectariancivilwar.EvenbySeptember2014,whenObamarealizedthatSyriacouldntbeignored(itwas,afterall,theheadquarters
ofISISoperations,andheknewverywellthattheIraqi-Syrianborderwasporoustothepointofmeaningless),hestucktowhat
hisaidescalledanIraqfirststrategy.Americanairstrikes,whichhadlongbegunagainstISISforcesinIraq,wouldbeextendedto
Syria,butonlyoverthepathsthatISISusedtotravelbetweenthetwocountries.Obamaalsoannouncedaprogramtotrainand
equipmoderateSyrianrebelsonbasesinSaudiArabiabutnotedthattheywouldntbereadytofightISISformanymonths
clearly,Syriawasonthebackburner,atbest.

DaysafterObamasannouncement,ISISlaidsiegetoKobani,amainlyKurdishtownontheSyrian-Turkishborder.Thetownhad
nostrategicsignificance,butamassacrewasinthemaking.Morethanthat,ISISwassendingthousandsofjihadistsintothetown
forminganeasyconcentratedtarget,whichneitherthePentagonnorObamacouldresist.Obamaorderedmassiveairstrikes,
whichkilledanestimated2,000to3,000ISISfighters.

AnexplosioncausedbyanairstrikeinKobani,Syria,November2014.

Inanotherunexpectedfeatureofthebattle,KurdishfightersgatheredtostaveoffISIS,foughtverycapably,andrecapturedthe
town.ObamahadnotbeenopposedtogoingafterISISinsideSyriahejusthadnotseenasuitablepartnerthatcouldcarryoutthe
fightontheground.IntheSyrianKurds,hefoundone,andU.S.airstrikescontinued,oftenintandemwithKurdishground
assaults.Atthesametime,theCIAstartedcovertlyassistingagroupofrebelsinsouthernSyriawhosemainaimwastooverthrow
Assad.Again,ObamahadopposedPetraeusplantoarmsomerebelsnotbecausehewasagainstarmingrebelsbutbecausehedid
notseehowthatparticularplanorthoseparticularrebelswouldsucceed.Thenewplanseemedmoreplausible,inpartbecausethe
CIAandtheU.S.militaryhadgatheredalotmoreintelligenceandscopedoutreliableforcesoverthepreviousyear.(Aseparate$500
millionPentagonprogramtotrainandequipasmallgroupofnorthernSyrianrebelstofightISISprovedpubliclydisastrous:the
rebelsturnedouttobemoreinterestedinfightingAssadsarmythanISIS,takingthemoutofthefighttotraininSaudiArabiaonly
disorientedthem,andmoremilitantrebelskilledalmostallofthemontheirreentryintoSyria.)

Viewedpiecebypiece,tacticalmovebytacticalmove,Obamasoperationsappearedtobemakingprogress.Butforeignfighters
keptfloodingtheregion,ISISwasbarelybudgedaside,andalthoughAssadsarmyseemedimperiled,itwasstillquitelarge(at
around125,000troops)andrecoveredmuchofitsstrengthafterRussiasentintanksandjetfightersinSeptember2015.Russias
moveraisedthehacklesofsomeofObamascritics,whosawPutinastryingtorevivetheSovietempire.Obamadidntbite,and
wiselyso.AtanNSCmeeting,hecautionedagainstviewingRussiasinterventionthroughaColdWarprism.Wearenotatwarwith
RussiaoverSyria,hesaid,accordingtoofficialswhowereatthemeeting.Putinsvitalinterestinthishadmuchtodowithhisown
domesticpolitics,andanalarmedAmericanresponsewouldhaveplayedintohisgame.Finally,ObamadoubtedthattheRussian
militarycampaignwouldhavemuchimpactonthebattle.

Nonetheless,Obamawasstillreceptivetoattractiveoptionsforhisownmilitaryposture.TheSyrianKurdswererackingupmore
successes(andrequiringmoreprotectionfromTurkey,whichwaspoundingthemwithairstrikeswhileclaimingtobegoingafter
ISIS),andsoObamaapprovedplanstosendtheKurdsmoreammunitionandtodeployU.S.SpecialForcestojointheminraids
onISISstrongholds,secretmissionsthatresultedinsixfatalitiesbeforeObamaannouncedtheactionspublicly.

Obamahasakeenlegalmind,whichserveshimandthecountrywellwhenhepokesholesinspeciousargumentsforriskypolicies.
Butitalsoenableshimtorationalizehisownporouspositions:forinstance,thatconductingjointraidsfallsinthecategoryofadvise
andassist,notbootsontheground.Hecanalsomakefirmassurancesthathewillnotpushthesegroundforcesanyfurther,
ignoringthathehaslaidthegroundworkandsetthelogicforhissuccessorintheWhiteHousetoescalatethefight,ifheorsheis
soinclined.(Nottodrawpreciseparallels,butinasimilarvein,PresidentJohnF.KennedyfirmlyresistedpressurefromtheJoint
ChiefsofStafftodeploycombattroopstoVietnamyetexpandedthescopeandnumbersofadvisersthere,leavingPresident
LyndonJohnsontobelievehewasfollowinginhispredecessorsfootstepswhenhepoured500,000U.S.troopsintothefight.)

SyriaiswhereObamastoolsfordealingwithcrisesprovedinadequate.

UmitBektas/REUTERSAblackflagbelongingtoISISnearKobani,October2014.
THESEARCHFORORDER

WhathasbeenmissinginObamasSyriapolicy,inallitsphases,isacoherentstrategy.HistwoaimsdefeatingISISand
pressuringAssadtostepdownareinsomewayscontradictory.AssadscontinuedreignhasbeenamagnetforforeignSunni
fighterstojoinISIS.Butintheshortrun,Assadsarmy,ifproperlydirected,couldbethemostpotentanti-ISISforcesecond
perhapsonlytoIran,whichhasbeensendingmembersofitseliteQudsForcetoprotectAssadsregime.Obamahasbeen
constrainedfromforminganovertalliancewithAssadorIran,inpartbecausehehasneededSunnialliesEgypt,Turkey,andthe
GulfstatestodelegitimizeanddefeattheSunniradicalsofISISifhebondedwithShiiteIranoritsclientAssad,thosecountries
mightdropoutofthecoalition.

ThereinliestheheartoftheproblemnotonlywithObamasstrategyagainstISISbutwithanyU.S.presidentsstabatsucha
strategy.IfallthecountriesthatfearedandloathedISISwhichistosay,almostallthecountriesintheregionjoinedforces,ISIS
wouldcrumbleinshortorder.Buteachofthosecountrieshasmorefearandloathingforatleastoneofitspotentialallies(Turkey
fortheKurdsandSaudiArabiaforIran,forexample).Forminganeffectivecoalitionhasthereforebeenallbutimpossibleafact
thatISIScommandershaveshrewdlyexploited.

AsmanyofObamascriticscontend,acoherentregionalstrategynotjustaseriesofpiecemealresponsestocrisesisneededto
solvethisproblem.Butwhatisthisregionalstrategy?Whoshouldleadit?Whatincentivesmightlurethepotentialcoalitionsplayers
tosubordinatetheirindividualintereststothelargergoal?(InOctober,ObamadroppedhisreluctanceandinvitedIranandRussiato
jointalksinViennatodiscussapoliticalsolutiontotheSyriancrisisandajointfightagainstISIS.Theprospectsseemeddim,until
ontheveryeveoftheconferenceISISagentsmountedcoordinatedterroristattacksinParis.Althoughtheoddsremainlong,a
plausiblepathtoasettlementopenedup.Obamaseemstohaverecognized,alongwithothers,thattranscendingthesectariandivide
ratherthanaccommodatingitandformingallianceswithrivalsagainstlarger,commonthreatsistheonlywaytowardapeaceful
transition.)

ThesecomplexitiesaresymptomaticofalargerphenomenonthataccountsforthesurgeofviolencethroughouttheMiddleEast:the
breakdownofthecolonialorderimposedattheendofWorldWarI.Thisorder,withitsartificialbordersdesignedtosplitor
suppresstribalidentities,wouldhavecollapsedafterWorldWarII(alongwiththeBritishandFrenchcolonies)butforthedeep
freezeimposedbytheColdWar.WhentheSovietUnionimploded,theColdWartoodissolved,alongwiththeinternationalsecurity
systemthatithadcreatedandsustainedfornearlyhalfacentury.Withthesubsequentdiffusionofglobalpowerandfragmentation
ofpowerblocs,thecollapseoftheMiddleEastsbordersandauthoritiesresumedaprocessacceleratedbyPresidentGeorgeW.
Bushs2003invasionofIraq,whichdisruptedthebalanceofpoweramongnations,sects,andtribesthathadkeptanuneasypeace
betweenShiitesandSunnis,notonlywithinIraqbutacrosstheregion,asthedisruptionsripplesspread.

SomeofObamascriticsclaimthatifhehadfoundawaytokeep10,000AmericantroopsinIraqinsteadofgoingthroughwitha
completewithdrawalin2011,therenewalofsectarianviolenceandtheriseofISIStofillthesubsequentpowervacuumwould
neverhavehappened.Butthisisextremelyunlikely,giventhatinanearliereraittookcloseto170,000U.S.combattroopsusing
extraordinarymeasurestostemasimilartide,andeventhentheywereabletodosoonlytemporarily.Inanycase,Obamahadno
choiceinthematter.Thestatus-of-forcesagreement(SOFA)thatBushsignedin2008demanded,AlltheUnitedStatesForcesshall
withdrawfromallIraqiterritorynolaterthanDecember31,2011.Obamawas,infact,amenabletokeeping5,000troopsinIraq
forthelonghaulandsentemissariestoBaghdadtoseeifanextensioncouldbenegotiated,butrevisionstotheSOFAincludinga
U.S.demandthatAmericantroopsenjoyimmunityfromIraqilaw,requiredparliamentaryapproval,andnofactionsintheIraqi
parliament,exceptperhapstheKurds,wouldvotefortheAmericanstostay.(Obamahasbeenabletosendmilitaryforcesbackto
IraqonlybecausetheSOFAexpiredafterthreeyears.)

AsforAfghanistan,theotherwarthatObamapromisedandtriedtoend,itkeepsragingaswell.InOctober2015,reversingan
earlierpolicytowithdrawallU.S.troopsfromthecountrybytheendofhisterm,Obamaannouncedthat5,500wouldremainthere
tocontinuetrainingandequippingAfghanforcesandtoconductcounterterroristoperations.

BAZRATNER/REUTERSU.S.soldiersfireahowitzerartillerypieceinKandaharProvince,Afghanistan,June
2011.

ObamaannouncedthischangesoonafterTalibanfighterstookoverthenortherncityofKunduz,buthehadmadethedecisionafew
monthsearlier,accordingtoaseniorcounterterrorismofficial.ThenewAfghanpresident,AshrafGhani,hadaskedObamanotto
withdrawallU.S.troops,signedabilateralsecurityagreementgivingU.S.forceslegalprotections(anaccordthathispredecessor,
HamidKarzai,hadrefusedtoconsider),andpromisedreformstobroadeninclusivityandcrackdownoncorruption.Meanwhile,
terroristgroupsstillflourishedacrosstheborderwithPakistan.NooneintheNSCopposedsustainingacounterterroristforceon
somebaseintheregionherewasGhaniofferingthreeexistingbases.AninteragencystudyconductedbyGeneralMartinDempsey,
thenthechairmanoftheJointChiefsofStaff,concludedthatthemissioncouldbesupportedwith5,500troops.Andsothedecision
wasmade.Kunduz(whichAfghansoldiersquicklyrecaptured)wasthenewspegthatpreemptedpoliticalobjections.

ThetragedyofObamaspresidencyisthat,fromthebeginning,hehaswantedtoshiftawayfromthestagnantbattlefieldsinand
aroundtheMiddleEastanddevotemoreattentiontotheAsia-Pacificregion,withitsprospectsfordynamicgrowth,trade,and,in
theformofChina,anexpansionistpowerthatneedstobeatoncecontainedmilitarilyandluredintotheglobaleconomy.Thisfocus
onAsiacametobecalledthepivot,orrebalancing,butObamahadrecognizeditsappealanddiscusseditasfarbackashis
2008presidentialcampaign.Heunderstood,andstilldoes,thatthisiswheretheUnitedStatesfutureinterestsliebutthenever-
endingcrisesoftheancientworldkeeppullinghimbackin.

LIMITEDINTERESTS,LIMITEDRISKS

AstheISISimbrogliowidened,yetanothercrisiserupted,thistimeinUkraine.AfterPutinbribedUkrainianPresidentViktor
YanukovychwithanaidpackagetostophimfromsigninganassociationagreementwiththeEuropeanUnion,popularprotests
brokeoutinKiev.WhenYanukovychcrackeddown,theprotestswidened,andhewasultimatelyforcedtoflee.Putinrespondedby
sendingRussianforcestoseizetheCrimeanPeninsulaandsupportasecessionistrebellionineasternUkraine.
InNSCmeetingsheldtodecidehowtorespondtoRussiasmove,Obamaquicklyapprovedascriptofdenunciation,reinforcements
ofU.S.militaryexercisesinandaroundeasternEuropesNATOallies(especiallytheBalticstates),andastringofeconomic
sanctions.

SomePentagonofficialswantedtogofurtherandsupplytheUkrainianarmywithlethaldefensiveweapons,especiallyTOW
antitankmissiles.AccordingtoNSCofficials,VicePresidentJoeBidenstronglyendorsedthisposition,sayingthattheUnitedStates
hadamoralobligationtohelptheUkrainiansdefendthemselves,aswellasastrategicinterestinmakingPutinpayforhislandgrab
andindeterringhimfromgoingfurther.(NooneinanyNSCmeeting,however,advocatedsendingUkraineoffensiveweaponsor
deployingU.S.troopstothecountry.)

CemOksuz/Pool/REUTERS

ObamatalkswithRussianPresidentVladimirPutinandU.S.NationalSecurityAdviserSusanRice
duringtheG20Leaders'SummitinAntalya,Turkey,November2015.

Intheend,Obamaapprovedtheprovisionofnonlethalmilitaryassistance,suchasnight-visionandradarequipment,andtrainingfor
UkrainesNationalGuard.Beyondthat,hewasopposed.TheUnitedStateshadinterestsinUkraine,butnotvitalinterests.There
werereasonstwopreviouspresidentshadconsidered,thendecidedagainst,invitingKievsleaderstojoinNATO.First,pollshad
suggestedthatlessthanhalfofUkrainianswantedmembership.Second,RussiasinterestsinUkraine,unliketheUnitedStates,
werevital:RussiaandUkrainesharedaborderandalonghistoryoftrade,culturalexchange,andevencommonstatehood.No
RussianleaderwouldstandbyasUkrainedriftedtoofarfromMoscowsorbit.

Obamalikestolookaheadtwoorthreesteps.(Hiscriticshaveseenthisasatechniqueforavoidingtheuseofforceothersseeitas
amethodofrationaldecision-making.)MoscowcouldandwouldmatchorsurpassanylethalweaponsthattheWestsuppliedto
Kiev.Thenwhat?IfWashingtonsentstillmorearms,itwouldriskgettingsuckedintoanarmsrace,andtheviolencewould
intensify.IftheUnitedStatesdidnotrespondinkind,theWestwouldhavelostthecontestObamawouldlookweaker,andRussia
stronger,thanifhehadnotsentanyarmsinthefirstplace.

ThiswasObamasfirstprincipleinalldiscussionsaboutthecrisis:hewasnotgoingtoriskawarwithRussiaforthesakeof
Ukraine.Atonemeeting,hesaid,IfIwantedtoinvadeCanadaorMexico,noonecoulddomuchaboutit.Thesamewastrueof
PutinandUkraine.

Still,Obamaputahighvalueonenforcinginternationalnorms,oneofwhichwastheinviolabilityofborders.Hefeltitnecessaryto
makeRussiapayforitsviolationthequestionwashow.Militaryescalation,inthiscontext,wasagameRussiawouldwin,but
escalationofsanctionswasonetheUnitedStatescouldwin,ifObamacouldkeepEuropeanstatesonboard.Thiswasachallenge,
formanyEuropeancountriesweremorereliantonRussianenergysuppliesthantheUnitedStateswasandthereforemorevulnerable
toeconomicreprisalsfromRussia.TheywerealsodeadsetagainstriskingwaroverUkraine.IfObamawentupthemilitaryladder,
heknewtheywoulddropoutofthesanctionsregime.

Obamaskeenlegalmindallowshimtorationalizehisownporouspositions.

Atleastthroughthefallof2015,Obamaspolicyhasworked.DespitePutinseffortstosplitthetransatlanticalliance,itsmembers
haveheldtightonthesanctions,andthecease-firenegotiatedinMinskinFebruaryhasheld,too.PutinslikelygoalinUkrainewas
toweakenthecountryscentralgovernmentandkeepitfrommovingclosertotheWest.Atthat,hehassucceeded.IfObamaand
thewesternEuropeannationshadwantedtostrikebackonthatfront,tensofbillionsofdollarsineconomicaidwouldhavemeanta
lotmorethanafewhundredantitankmissiles.ButbeyondarelativelypaltryInternationalMonetaryFundgrant,nooneseemedto
wanttogodownthatroad.

PATIENCEANDPRAGMATISM

SohowdoesObamasrecordstackup?Thepresidenthasbeenbesiegedbyforeignpolicycrises,constrainedbydiminished
Americanpower,andpressuredbyopponentsathomeandalliesabroadtotakeactionandshowleadership,evenwhendealingwith
intractableproblems.Hehaslearnedonthejob,withhisinstinctsforcautionreinforcedbytheill-fatedLibyanintervention.Andhe
has,attimes,talkedmoreboldlythanhehasacted,creatinganeedlessgapbetweenwordsanddeeds.

Andyetforthemostpart,hehasstayedtruetothetemplateofhisNobeladdress,keepingsightofthebigpictureasothershave
gottenlostintheshrubs.Hiscautionaboutembarkingonunnecessarymilitaryadventuresanddesiretoavoidescalatorymilitary
spiralsseemwise.Obamahasalsoprovedremarkablypatientwithdrawn-outdiplomaticnegotiations,eventhoseunlikelytobear
fruit.Someofthese,suchastheIsraeli-Palestinianpeacetalks,havepredictablygonenowhere,butothers,suchastheopeningto
CubaandthenucleardealwithIran,havebeenstrikinglysuccessful.

Thesuccessesandfailuresstem,inpart,fromthedoggedoptimismofObamassecond-termsecretaryofstate,Kerry.Itisdoubtful
thatKerrysmorecautiouspredecessor,Clinton,ormostotherpastsecretariesofstate,wouldhavestuckwiththenucleartalks
withIranforaslongasKerrydidbutneitherwouldshehavespentsomuchtimeandefforttryingtojump-startamoribund
MiddleEastpeaceprocess.

OnedownsidetoKerrysvisionofhisjob,asspecialenvoytotheworldsmosthopelesslogjams,isthatitleavesmuchoftherest
oftheworldabitanxious.ThishasbeenespeciallytrueoftheUnitedStatesalliesinAsiamostofallJapan,whoseleaders
demandconstanthandholding.DuringObamasfirstterm,KurtCampbell,theassistantsecretaryofstateforEastAsianandPacific
affairs,phonedhiscounterpartinTokyoeverydayandmetface-to-facewiththeJapaneseambassadorthreetimesaweek.Officials
whodealwithAsianaffairssaythatafterCampbellleft,andKerryturnedtheStateDepartmentsfocusalmostexclusivelytohigh-
profilepeacemissions,Tokyofeltabandoned.

Still,thishardlyamountedtoacrisis.First,whenBeijingstartedflexingitsnavalmusclesintheSouthChinaSea,Japan(and
AustraliaandSouthKorea)clungeverclosertoWashington,howeverfrustrateditfeltattimes.Second,anotherbigpartofthe
UnitedStatesrelationswithAsiainvolvessimplyshowingupandalthoughtheassistantsecretarymaynotbecallingasoften,
ObamaandKerryshowupatalltheAsiansecurityandeconomicsummits.Anxietyaboutabandonmentremainsithasbeenafactor
fordecades,atleastsincetheUnitedStatespulledoutofVietnamandsecretlyreachedouttoChinaduringthepresidencyofRichard
Nixon.ButObamasmissteps,whichhavebotheredalliesintheMiddleEast,havenotweighedatallonthoseinEastAsia.Daniel
Sneider,theassociatedirectorforresearchattheWalterH.ShorensteinAsia-PacificResearchCenteratStanfordUniversity,hasmet
privatelywithdozensofpoliticalandmilitaryleadersfromJapanandSouthKorea.Hesays,Iveneverheardanyofthemsaya
wordabouttheredlineinSyria.

OnAugust5,2015,thepresidentdeliveredaspiritedspeechatAmericanUniversitydefendingthenucleardealthatheandfiveother
worldpowershadnegotiatedwithIran.Severaltimes,hequotedKennedysfamousAmericanUniversityspeechin1963callingfor
anendtotheColdWarmindsetandanewstrategybasedonapracticalandattainablepeace,onebasednotonasudden
revolutioninhumannaturebutonagradualevolutioninhumaninstitutionsonaseriesofconcreteactionsandeffective
agreements.

Laterthatday,Obamaheldanon-the-recordroundtablediscussionwithtencolumnistsintheWhiteHouse.Whenmyturncameto
askaquestion,InotedthatKennedyhaddeliveredhisspeechafterseveralcrisesinwhichherealizedthathisadviserswereoften
wrongandthatheshouldplacemoretrustinhisowninstincts.Whatlessons,IaskedObama,hadhelearnedinhiscrises?What
decisionsmighthehavemadedifferently,hadheknownthenwhatheknowsnow?Heanswered:

IwouldsaythatIhavebeenconsistentinmybroadviewofhowAmericanpowershouldbedeployedandtheview
thatweunderestimateourpowerwhenwerestrictittojustourmilitarypower....Theresnodoubtthat,aftersixand
ahalfyears,IamthatmuchmoreconfidentintheassessmentsImakeandcanprobablyseearoundthecornersfaster
thanIdidwhenIfirstcameintooffice.Themapisntalwaystheterritory,andyouhavetokindofwalkthroughitto
getafeelforit.

IntermsofdecisionsImake,IdothinkthatIhaveabettersenseofhowmilitaryactioncanresultinunintended
consequences.AndIamconfirmedinmybeliefthatmuchofthetime,wearemakingjudgmentsbasedonpercentages,
and...therearealwaysgoingtobesomecomplications.

AndsomaybeatthesametimeasImmoreconfidenttoday,Imalsomorehumble.Andthatspartofthereasonwhy,
whenIseeasituationlikethisone[thepossibilityofanucleardealwithIran],wherewecanachieveanobjective
withaunifiedworldbehindusandwepreserveourhedgeagainstitsnotworkingout,Ithinkitwouldbefoolish
eventragicforustopassuponthatopportunity.

ThisarticlehasbeenupdatedtocorrectthedatethatPresidentObamadeliveredaspeechabouttheIrannucleardealatAmerican
University.ItwasAugust5,2015,notApril5.
 From: RobertOtto<robertotto25@gmail.com>
Senttime: 01/01/201605:19:06AM
To: kramer<David.J.Kramer@asu.edu>
Subject: Re:LackofRussiaexpertshassomeinU.S.worried-TheWashingtonPost

http://cddrl.fsi.stanford.edu/publications/getting_russia_right

HistorianswillsomedaywritethatRussiare-enteredtheWesterncommunityofstatesasamarketdemocracyattheendofthe20th
century.Youwouldn'tthinkso,however,fromthevituperativeandpessimistictoneofmostcontemporarycommentaryintheUnitedStates
aboutRussiaandU.S.-Russianrelations.FocusingonluridaccountsofRussianmoneylaundering,cronyism,andwidespreadpolitical
andeconomicdisarray,politiciansandpunditshaveblastedtheClintonadministrationformishandlingacrucialstrategicrelationship
and"losing"Russia.

Youdthinkthatanyonewiththis,um,historywouldbealittlelesscategoricalandabitmorehumbleinhispublicstatements.

OnDec31,2015,at5:27AM,DavidKramer<David.J.Kramer@asu.edu>wrote:

ToyouandAnne,too,Bob.

Yes,thewholeresetwasbasedonmisperceptionsandbadinformation--allofithis!

SentfrommyiPhone

OnDec31,2015,at5:25AM,RobertOtto<robertotto25@gmail.com>wrote:

Yes.HappyNewYear,David

Tryingtofigureoutdecision-makinginRussiaonforeignpolicyrequiresagreatdealofqualitative
depthandthatrequiresnewinvestmentandknowledge,McFaulcontinued.Weregoingto
disagreewiththeKremlinandwiththeRussiansoncertainissuesovertime,butwhatwecanthaveis
disagreementsbasedonmisperceptionandbadinformation.

OnThu,Dec31,2015at5:20AM,DavidKramer<David.J.Kramer@asu.edu>wrote:
Saturdayat8:30,right?

SentfrommyiPhone

OnDec31,2015,at5:19AM,RobertOtto<robertotto25@gmail.com>wrote:

That'sapartofMike'songoingpolemicwithTom.

OnThu,Dec31,2015at5:09AM,DavidKramer<David.J.Kramer@asu.edu>wrote:
TheRojanskyquoteispricelessforaguywhoneverworkedinUSG--andsowhat
aboutBelarus.AndMcFaul'squoteneartheendaboutRussianotbeingadeclining
power.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/news/powerpost/wp/2015/12/30/lack-of-russia-
experts-has-the-u-s-playing-catch-up/?postshare=1351451515733124&tid=ss_fb-
bottom
SentfrommyiPhone
 From: obolon78@yahoo.com
Senttime: 12/31/201507:05:19PM
To: robertotto25@gmail.comWilliamsJP@state.gov
Subject: Re:Someofourfavorite"experts"onwhytherearenotmorelikethem...

It'spreciselywhyheismorecategoricalandlesshumbleinhispublicstatements,oramIgivinghimwaytoomuchcredit?

------Originalmessage------
From:RobertOtto
Date:Thu,Dec31,201514:02
To:JohnWillams(ofc)
Cc:GeneFishel
Subject:Re:Someofourfavorite"experts"onwhytherearenotmorelikethem...

http://cddrl.fsi.stanford.edu/publications/getting_russia_right1999/2000

HistorianswillsomedaywritethatRussiare-enteredtheWesterncommunityofstatesasamarketdemocracyattheendofthe20th
century.Youwouldn'tthinkso,however,fromthevituperativeandpessimistictoneofmostcontemporarycommentaryintheUnitedStates
aboutRussiaandU.S.-Russianrelations.FocusingonluridaccountsofRussianmoneylaundering,cronyism,andwidespreadpolitical
andeconomicdisarray,politiciansandpunditshaveblastedtheClintonadministrationformishandlingacrucialstrategicrelationship
and"losing"Russia.

Youdthinkthatanyonewiththis,um,history(*)wouldbealittlelesscategoricalandabitmorehumbleinhispublic
statements.

*NowweknowwhyhewroteinhisUnfinishedRevolution"ifhistorymatteredallthetime,therewouldneverbeanychange."(pp24-
25)?

OnDec31,2015,at1:53PM,Williams,JohnP<WilliamsJP@state.gov>wrote:

http://www.washingtonpost.com/news/powerpost/wp/2015/12/30/lackofrussiaexpertshastheusplaying
catchup/
 From: RobertOtto<robertotto25@gmail.com>
Senttime: 12/31/201511:01:59AM
To: JohnWillams(ofc)<WilliamsJP@state.gov>
Cc: GeneFishel<obolon78@yahoo.com>
Subject: Re:Someofourfavorite"experts"onwhytherearenotmorelikethem...

http://cddrl.fsi.stanford.edu/publications/getting_russia_right1999/2000

HistorianswillsomedaywritethatRussiare-enteredtheWesterncommunityofstatesasamarketdemocracyattheendofthe20th
century.Youwouldn'tthinkso,however,fromthevituperativeandpessimistictoneofmostcontemporarycommentaryintheUnitedStates
aboutRussiaandU.S.-Russianrelations.FocusingonluridaccountsofRussianmoneylaundering,cronyism,andwidespreadpolitical
andeconomicdisarray,politiciansandpunditshaveblastedtheClintonadministrationformishandlingacrucialstrategicrelationship
and"losing"Russia.

Youdthinkthatanyonewiththis,um,history(*)wouldbealittlelesscategoricalandabitmorehumbleinhispublic
statements.

*NowweknowwhyhewroteinhisUnfinishedRevolution"ifhistorymatteredallthetime,therewouldneverbeanychange."(pp24-
25)?

OnDec31,2015,at1:53PM,Williams,JohnP<WilliamsJP@state.gov>wrote:

http://www.washingtonpost.com/news/powerpost/wp/2015/12/30/lackofrussiaexpertshastheusplaying
catchup/
 From: RobertOtto<robertotto25@gmail.com>
Senttime: 12/31/201510:53:51AM
To: DavidKramer<djkmd1@aol.com>
Subject: HowObamaMakesForeignPolicy|ForeignAffairs

http://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/2015-12-07/obamas-way?cid=emc-Dec15_Remail_A-content-
123115&sp_mid=50368504&sp_rid=cm9iZXJ0b3R0bzI1QGdtYWlsLmNvbQS2&spMailingID=50368504&spUserID=OTQ5NTcwNTM2OTIS1&spJobID=824531828&spReportId=ODI0NTMxODI4S0

Obama'sWay
OnJanuary28,2009,barelyaweekintohispresidency,BarackObamametwiththeU.S.militarystopgeneralsandadmiralsontheirownturf,insidethetank,theJointChiefsofStaffsconferenceroomonthe
secondfloorofthePentagon.Aseniorofficialrecalledthenewpresidentasremarkablyconfidentcomposed,relaxed,butalsodeferential,nottryingtoacttoomuchthecommanderinchief.Obamawalked
aroundtheroom,introducinghimselftoeveryonehethankedthemandtheentirearmedforcesfortheirserviceandsacrificethenhesatdownforafreewheelingdiscussionoftheworldschallenges,regionby
region,crisisbycrisis.Hewasthemaninfull,theofficialsaid,fluentoneveryissue,butmorethanthatasurprisetotheofficers,whohadbeenleeryofthisyoung,inexperiencedDemocrathedisplayedadeep
streakofrealism.

Atonepoint,Obamaremarkedthathewasnotthesortofpersonwhodrivesdownastreetwishinghecouldparkwhereverhelikes.Ifhesawanopenspot,evenonethatrequiredsometrickyparallelparking,he
wouldbefinewithsqueezingintoit.Obamasmeaningwasclear:hehadbeendealtabadhand(twounpopularwars,alienatedallies,thedeepestrecessionindecades),buthewouldfindawaytodealwiththeworld
asitwas.

Sevenyearslater,manyofficersanddefenseofficials,includingsomewhoweresoimpressedwithObamaatthestart,lookbackathispresidencyasfollowingadifferentstyleofgoverning.Theylaudthehistoric
accomplishmentstheIrannucleardeal,theopeningtoCuba,theTrans-PacificPartnership,theprevention(sofar)ofanotherterroristattackonAmericansoilandtheyacknowledgethathehasoftentriedtomake
thebestofbadchoices.Buttoooften,theysay,hehasavoidedtakingaction,waitingforconditionstogetbettercirclingtheblockand,inhisownmetaphor,waitingforabetterparkingspottoopenup.

ThisisacommoncritiqueofObamasforeignpolicy:thatheevadesharddecisions,thatheisallergictomilitaryforceifitrisksAmericancasualtiesorescalation,thatthereisoftenamismatchbetweenhiswordsand
hisdeeds.Thisisapattern,oneretiredfour-stargeneralsaid.Heissuessternwarnings,thendoesnothing.ItdamagesAmericancredibility.

Isthechargetrue?Andtotheextentthatithassomevalidity,howmuchcanbelaidatObamasfeet,andhowmuchshouldbeattributedtotheintractabilityoftheproblemshehasfaced?Wouldadifferentsortof
presidenthavehandledthedecadeschallengesbetter,andifso,how?

ThefollowingexaminationofkeycrisesanddecisionsisbasedonconversationsIhavehadwithdozensofofficialsacrossthespanofObamaspresidencyandwith20mid-tosenior-levelofficials(pastandpresent,
almostallonabackgroundbasis)interviewedspecificallyforthisarticle.

THELESSONOFLIBYA

InDecember2009,ObamajourneyedtoOslotoreceivetheNobelPeacePrize.Theawardwaspremature,tosaytheleast,butheusedhisacceptancespeechtolaydowntheprinciplesofaforeignpolicyhehopedto
followasophisticatedgrapplingwiththetensionsbetweenidealismandrealism.ItwasadaringspeechforaPeacePrizerecipient.Tosaythatforcemaysometimesbenecessaryisnotacalltocynicism,hesaid.
Itisarecognitionofhistory,theimperfectionofman,andthelimitsofreason.Nationsmustadheretostandardsthatgoverntheuseofforce,andajust,lastingpeacemustbebasedontheinherentrightsand
dignityofeveryindividual.Still,Americacannotactalone,exceptonmattersofvitalnationalinterest,andmereloftyrhetoricabouthumanrightsonlysustainsacripplingstatusquo.Engagementwithrepressive
regimesmaylackthesatisfyingpurityofindignation,butnorepressiveregimecanmovedownanewpathunlessithasthechoiceofanopendoor.

BenjaminRhodes,Obamasdeputynationalsecurityadviserforstrategiccommunications,said,Whenpeopleaskmetosummarize[Obamas]foreignpolicy,Itellthemtotakeacloselookatthatspeech.Another
formertopWhiteHouseofficialcalleditatemplatetohowheapproachesproblems,aframeworkforhowhethinksaboutU.S.power.Whetherhefollowedthetemplatehowhegrappledinactionwiththe
tensionsherecognizedintheorywouldbe,byhisownstandard,themeasureofhispresidency.

TheearlyyearsofObamastermweretakenupwithchallengesinheritedfromtheBushadministration,especiallythewarsinAfghanistanandIraq.Atthestartof2011,however,astringofnewproblemsemerged,
asdomesticprotestsagainstauthoritarianleadersbrokeoutacrosstheMiddleEast.TheBenAliregimeinTunisiafellinJanuary,andtheMubarakregimeinEgyptfollowedinearlyFebruary.BylateFebruary,rebels
opposedtotheLibyandictatorMuammaral-QaddafihadseizedcontrolincitiessuchasBenghazi,andthedictatorsdaysseemednumbered.Butthenthetideofwarreversed,andQaddafisforcesmovedtocrushthe
uprising.

ObamaattheNobelPeacePrizeawardceremonyinOslo,December2009.

Withtensofthousandsofcivilianlivesatrisk,theObamaadministration,whichhadcomeoutinsupportoftherebels,facedadifficultchoice.ThemembersoftheArabLeaguewereunanimouslyimploringthe
UnitedStatestogetinvolved.NATOallieswerekeentointerveneinsupportofthearmedrebels,andaUNSecurityCouncilresolutionwasintheworks.AtaNationalSecurityCouncilmeetingcalledtodiscussthe
crisis,SecretaryofStateHillaryClinton,U.S.AmbassadortotheUNSusanRice,andsomeofObamasNSCstaffarguedforaction,citingmoralimperativesandtheprospectofatrulymultilateralforce.But
accordingtoseveralpeoplepresentatthemeeting,Pentagonofficialsopposedintervening,pointingoutthattheUnitedStateshadnovitalinterestsinLibyaandthatanyseriouscommitmentwouldgetWashington
boggeddown,possiblyforyears.

Twooptionsweresetbeforethepresident:goinallthewayastheleaderofanalliance,ordontgoinatall.Obamasresponsewastocomeupwithathirdway,whichemergedashethoughtthroughtheproblemout
loud.Earlyon,hearticulatedtheprinciplesthatwouldunderliewhatevercoursehechose:noU.S.bootsontheground,nomilitaryactionatallunlessithadalegalbasisandadecentchanceofsucceeding,and,
finally,anappropriatedivisionoflaborwithalliestheU.S.militarywouldprovideitsuniquecapabilities(amongthemprecisionbombingandintelligencesharing),butU.S.allies,whohadafargreaterinterestinthe
conflictsoutcome,wouldassumethebruntofprotectingLibyanciviliansandrestoringorderafterthefighting.
InaninterviewatthetimewithTheNewYorker,anObamaadviser(whoseidentityremainsunknown)dubbedthisapproachleadingfrombehind,atermthatwouldcomeinformuchderision.Butincontext,it
madesense,anditfitObamasoutlookontheroleandlimitsofmilitaryforce,thedistinctionbetweeninterestsandvitalinterests,andtheneedtoaligntheinstrumentsofpowerwiththeintensityofthoseinterests.

Thefirstphaseoftheresultingoperationwasultimatelyasuccess.ThecombinationofU.S.airstrikesandintelligence,NATOairsupport,andrebelmovementsonthegroundledtothedefeatofQaddafisforcesand
(althoughthiswasnotanexplicitaimofthecampaign)thekillingoftheLibyanleaderhimself.Butthesecondphasewasafailure:anewgovernmentwasneverfullyformed,therebelfactionssquabblesdegenerated
intocivilwar,andthecountryssocialorder(suchasitwas)collapsed.

TheproblemwasthattheNATOalliesthathadpromisedtoleadthestabilizationphaseofapost-QaddafiLibyadidnotfollowthrough,inpartbecausethisphaseturnedouttobemuchmoreviolentthantheyhad
anticipated.Restoring(or,really,creating)orderwouldhaverequiredarmedinterventionandpossiblyseriouscombatontheground,amissionforwhichEuropeanstateshadlittlecapacityandlessappetite.

Obamarecognizedthefailure,acknowledginginhisSeptember2015speechtotheUNGeneralAssembly,EvenaswehelpedtheLibyanpeoplebringanendtothereignofatyrant,ourcoalitioncouldhaveand
shouldhavedonemoretofillavacuumleftbehind.AndthelessonweighedonhimwhenconsideringhowtohandleasimilarcrisisinSyria.

ZohraBensemra/REUTERSLibyanrebelsattheairportinMisrata,May2011.

THESYRIANSINKHOLE

AstheArabSpringevolved,demonstrationsbrokeoutinDamascusagainstSyrianPresidentBasharal-Assad.Assadstruckbackwithextremeforce,killingprotestersfirstbythehundreds,thenbythethousands.
Gradually,arebelforcearose,andthecountryplungedintocivilwar.WiththeUnitedStateshavingalreadyintervenedinLibyaundersimilarcircumstances,thequestionnaturallyarosewhetheritwouldintervenein
Syriaaswell.

InanNSCmeeting,Obamaspelledoutthedifferencesbetweenthetwoconflicts.Libyasfightinghadtakenplaceonanopendesert,whichallowedforcleartargetingSyriawasenmeshedinurbanwarfare,with
civilians,rebels,andsoldiersintermingled.TheLibyanrebelshadhadachanceatformingacohesivegovernmenttherewerenosuchpossibilitiesinSyria.NootheroutsidepowerwascallingontheUnitedStatesto
intervenethistimearound.Finally,theconflictwascascadingintoaproxywarfortheregionwideSunni-Shiiteconfrontation.NotonlydidtheUnitedStateshavelittleatstakeinthisfight,butitalsohadlittleabilityto
influenceitsdirectionoroutcome.Accordingtoseveralattendeesofthemeeting,nobodyreallydisagreedwiththesepoints.

Andyettheadministrationhadaligneditselfwiththeseasonspopularuprisings.InMay,inaspeechofuncharacteristicexuberance,Obamalikenedtheturmoiltopreviouserasofdemocraticrevolution.Hespoke
withparticularurgencyaboutSyria,proclaimingthatAssadmuststopshootinghisownpeopleandallowhumanrightsmonitorstoenterthecountry.InAugust,ObamajoinedwiththeleadersofFrance,Germany,
andtheUnitedKingdomincallingonAssadtostepdown.Syriasrulerwasonthewrongsideofhistory,Obamasaid,declaringthatthetimehascomeforPresidentAssadtostepaside.

Forthemostpart,ObamahasstayedtruetothetemplateofhisNobeladdress,keepingsightofthebigpictureasothershavegottenlostintheshrubs.

Suchrhetoricwasdrivenbytwofactors.First,theaidesinObamasinnercirclefewofwhomknewanythingaboutMiddleEasternpoliticsreallydidthinkAssadsregimewasnearingcollapse.Second,giventhat
apparentfact,theyfeltitwasbesttoputtheadministrationpubliclyontherightsideofhistory,especiallysincealliednationswerecallingonObamatoshowleadership.

Therhetoricwasnotentirelyempty.Obamadidaskhismilitaryandintelligencechiefstocomeupwithplanstospeedhistoryalong,andinthesummerof2012,CIADirectorDavidPetraeuslaidoutaschemetoarm
agroupofmoderateSyrianrebels.Theplan,whichPetraeushadformulatedwithSaudiPrinceBandarbinSultanandafewotherArabsecuritychiefs,calledforshippingsmallarms,mainlyrifles,toasmall,select
groupoftheSyrianopposition.PetraeusdidnotpromisethemoonheexplicitlysaidthattheserebelscouldnotoustAssadrightawayandthatthegoalwastoputpressureonAssad.IfyouresayingAssadmust
go,hewastellingthepresident,hereshowtheCIAcanhelp.TheplanhadthebackingofClinton,SecretaryofDefenseLeonPanetta,andtheJointChiefsofStaff.Butthepresidentrejectedit.

GORANTOMASEVIC/REUTERS

AFreeSyrianArmyfighterinAleppo,August2012.

ObamawasnotopposedtotakingactionhehadaskedPetraeusandPanettaforoptions.Buthewasopposedtodoingsomethingmerelyforthesakeofdoingsomething,andthePetraeusplanseemedtofallintothat
category.Whoweretheserebels,heasked?CouldtheUnitedStatesreallydistinguishthegoodonesfromthebadones?(Petraeusinsistedthathecould,butObamawasunconvinced.)Iftheserebelsdidemergeasa
threattotheregime,wouldIran,whichhadinvestedheavilyinAssad,simplystandby,orwoulditintervene(asObamathoughtmorelikely)?

InNSCmeetings,severalattendeesrecall,PetraeusacknowledgedthatitmighttakeyearsfortherebelstomountaneffectivechallengetoAssadsrule.Meanwhile,theCIAsplanmightthrowAssadpsychologically
andgiveWashingtonskininthegame,apathtoinfluenceoverthelonghaul.ThiswasnotawinningargumentwithObama:hewaslookingforsomethingthathadachanceofsucceedinginthenearterm,andhe
didnotwantskininagameplayedinthequagmireofasectariancivilwar.WhilePetraeuswasworkinguptheplan,ObamaaskedtheCIAtoproduceapaperonhowofteninthepastU.S.armshadsucceededin
helpingrebelsousthostilegovernments.Theanswer:notveryoften.Thatsealedthecase.

Althoughgroundedinlogicandhistory,therejectionofinterventioninSyriasetoffthefirstwavesofdiscontentoverObamasforeignpolicyingeneralthenotionthathedidnotwanttouseforce,thathewas
alwaysonthelookoutforargumentsthatrationalizedthisdisinclination,thathetalkedboldbutfailedtofollowthrough,whichmadeallhiscommitmentsringhollow.

Lateron,astheself-proclaimedIslamicState(alsoknownasISIS)tookcontrolofvastswathsofIraqandSyria,ObamascriticsarguedthatifonlythepresidenthadacceptedPetraeusplan,ISISmightnothave
foundafoothold.Buttheclaimseemsfar-fetchedeventhoughafewofObamascloseadvisersallow,inretrospect,thatitmighthavebeenworthgivingPetraeusoptionachance.Inanycase,twoyearslater,
Obamaapprovedasimilarplan.However,whentheAmerican-backedrebelsstartedrackingupvictoriesonthebattlefieldandappearedtobeclosinginonAssad,Obamaspredictionofwhatwouldhappennextcame
true:theIraniansredoubledtheirsupportforAssad,sendingQudsForcesoldierstofighttherebels.AndRussianPresidentVladimirPutin,fearingthelossofMoscowssoleoutpostoutsidetheformerSovietUnion,
senttanks,planes,andmissilestosupporttheSyrianarmy.

REDLINE,REDFACE

SyriaiswhereObamasforeignpolicymetitsmostbrutalchallenge,andwherehistoolsfordealingwithcriseswords,logic,persistentquestions,andsequentialproblemsolvingprovedinadequate.

Atleastfivetimesintheeight-monthspanbetweenAugust2012andApril2013,ObamaoradministrationofficialspubliclywarnedAssadthatusingchemicalweaponsagainstrebelsandprotesterswouldcrossa
redline.Itwouldmarkagamechangerfromourperspective,Obamaelaboratedononeoccasion.Therewouldbeenormousconsequences,hesaidonanother.Itwouldbetotallyunacceptable,andAssad
wouldbeheldaccountable.Yetdespitesuchutterances,saycloseaidesandofficials,thepresidentneverorderedupaplanforwhattodoifAssadcrossedtheline.

Then,onAugust21,2013,rocketshellscontainingsaringasslammedrebel-controlledareasintheDamascussuburbs,killinganestimated1,500people.Theredlinehadbeencrossed.Obamaswiftlydecidedto
retaliate.Attackplansweredrawnup,mostofthemdesignedtodestroynotthechemicalstockpilesthemselves(explosionsofwhichmightspreadthegasfarandwide)butratherthemunitionsandfacilitiesrequired
tolaunchthemintobattle.Assadsregimewasnottheexplicittargetinanyoftheseplans,butsomeWhiteHouseaidesthought,orhoped,thathisstrengthmighterodeasasideeffect.

PeteSouza/WhiteHouse/HandoutviaReuters

ObamameetswithnationalsecuritystafftodiscussthesituationinSyriaintheWhiteHouseSituationRoom,August2013.

Obamaseemedtobeseriousaboutlaunchingthestrikes.HisaideswereinstructedtophonelegislatorsandjournaliststomakesuretheyhadreadanunclassifiedintelligencereportthattheWhiteHousehadjust
releasedprovingthatAssadwasbehindthechemicalattacks.AUNresolutionbackingtheuseofforceinSyriawasunlikelyRussiaandpossiblyChinawouldvetoit.SoObamaralliedArabandNATOnationstojoin
intheattack,oratleasttoendorseit.Hegotnosuchsupport,exceptfromFranceandtheUnitedKingdombutthenBritishPrimeMinisterDavidCameronrequestedauthorizationforanattackfromParliament,
whichvoteditdown.

OnAugust31,theNSCmetformorethantwohours.EveryonearoundthetableagreedthattheUnitedKingdomsbackpedaling,althoughregrettable,shouldnotaffectthepresidentsdecisionandthatheshould
proceedwiththeairstrikes.Ateamoflawyersadvisedhimthathehadthelegalauthoritytodoso.Afterthemeeting,however,ObamafamouslytookawalkontheWhiteHousebacklawnwithhischiefofstaff,
DenisMcDonough,andwhenhecamebacktotheSituationRoom,heannouncedthathehaddecidedtoletCongressvoteonthequestion.

Allofthepresidentsaidesandofficialsweresurprised,andnotinagoodway.ButObamaexplainedthatheneededsomeinstitutionalbackingforsuchadrastic,riskymove.Abombingcampaignmightkillnearby
civilians,anditmighthavenoimpactonAssad.WhatifAssaddoubleddownandlaunchedmoreattacks,chemicalorotherwise?IftheUnitedStatesansweredwithstillmoreairstrikes,itwouldriskgettingsucked
intoacivilwar,andifitdidnothing,thatwouldbeworsestill:Washingtonwouldlookweaker,andAssadwouldemergestronger,thaniftheUnitedStateshaddonenothingtobeginwith.SomeWhiteHouseaideshad
viewedairstrikesasaone-offproposition,butPentagonofficialshadarguedduringtheNSCmeetingsthatifObamawentaheadwithairstrikes(whichtheysupported),heshouldbepreparedforescalation.Obama
suspectedthePentagonwasright.Whateverhedid,hisactions(orinaction)wouldsirecriticismanddisunitytheywouldreceivelittlesupportandcouldnotbesustained.

Tomanyaroundthetable,eachseparatepieceofObamasargumentmadesense,buttheoveralllogicdidnot.Maybeitwasabadideatoproceedwithairstrikes,butinthatcase,Obamashouldnothavedrawnthose
redlines:heshouldnothaverecitedtherationaleforairstrikestosomanydiplomats,journalists,andlegislatorsheshouldnothavetoldSecretaryofStateJohnKerrytomakeacaseforthebombings(inapowerful
speechjusthoursbeforehechangedcourse)andaftermakingthisnewdecision,hecertainlyshouldnothavegoneaheadwithascheduledprime-timetelevisionaddressinwhichhedetailedAssadsperfidy,laidout
thenationalsecurityconcerns,claimedhehadthelegalauthoritytorespondwithunilateralairstrikesandthenannouncedthathewassendingthemattertoCongress.

Attimes,Obamahastalkedmoreboldlythanhehasacted,creatinganeedlessgapbetweenwordsanddeeds.

OneNSCofficialwhowasrelievedthatthestrikesdidnottakeplaceneverthelesssaid,Wepaidapriceforpullingback.TheperceptionamongpeopleintheregionwasthattheycouldntrelyonObamatopullthe
trigger.AformertopWhiteHouseofficialsaid,WhenpeopleseriouspeoplesayObamaisindecisiveanduncertain,theyretalkingaboutthisepisodewithSyria.

TheWhiteHouselobbiedCongresstopassaresolutionauthorizingtheuseofforce,butthetaskwasclearlyfutile:mostRepublicansdidnotwanttodoanyfavorsforObama,andmanyDemocratswereleeryof
militaryaction.Intheend,Russiacametotherescue.AtapressconferenceonSeptember9,KerrywasaskedifAssadcoulddoanythingtoavoidairstrikes.Kerryreplied,Sure,hecouldturnovereverybitofhis
[chemical]weaponstotheinternationalcommunitywithinthenextweek,withoutdelay,adding,butheisntaboutto.Toeveryonesastonishment,RussianForeignMinisterSergeyLavrovrepliedthathecould
makethathappenandhedid.UnderRussianpressure,Assadsurrenderedverynearlyallofhischemicalweaponsfordestruction.

Obamaandhisaidesdeclaredvictory,notingthatthisdiplomaticsolutionwasmoreeffectivethanmilitarystrikeswouldhavebeenandthatthethreatofthosestrikeswaswhathaddrivenRussiatopressureAssad.
Thefirstclaimwasprobablytruethesecondprobablywasnot.ThefactisCongressseemedcertaintodefeatObamasmotionbeforeRussiasteppedin.ItispossiblethatPutinneverbelievedthatObamawouldfeel
boundbyCongress,thathewouldfindsomewaytolaunchthestrikesanyway.Butmorepertinent,Russianleadershavealwaystakenpainstokeepweaponsofmassdestructionbiological,chemical,ornuclear
outoftheirallieshands:notsomuchbecausetheyabhorthoseweaponsasbecausetheyabhorthelossofcontrol.MoscowhaditsowninterestsinstrippingtheloosecannonAssadoftheseghastlyweapons,and
sincetheredlinecrisishadforcedObamatofocusonthechemicalsandnotonAssadsregime,thediplomaticsavewouldserveoneofRussiasvitalintereststhepreservationofMoscowsonlyfootholdinthe
MiddleEast.

THEISISCRISIS

Theredlinefiascowasalowpointintheadministrationsforeignpolicy,butthetroublesinSyriawerehardlyover.Lessthanayearafterthechemicalweaponssettlement,ISISwhichObamahadrecentlydismissed
asaJVversionofalQaedastormedMosul,thesecond-largestcityinIraq.TheU.S.-trainedIraqisoldiersfledatfirstcontact,andthearmedjihadistsbarreledontoRamadiandFallujahand,forawhile,came
perilouslyclosetoBaghdad.

ThejihadistshadstartedoutandwerelargelybasedinSyria,butObamafocusedhisanti-ISISstrategyonIraqbecausethatswhereitmighthavesomeeffecttheUnitedStates,afterall,hadresources,airbases,and
apartnershipofsortswithafunctioninggovernmentinthecountryandithadnoneofthosethingsinSyria,whereObamaremainedproperlywaryofdivingintoasectariancivilwar.EvenbySeptember2014,when
ObamarealizedthatSyriacouldntbeignored(itwas,afterall,theheadquartersofISISoperations,andheknewverywellthattheIraqi-Syrianborderwasporoustothepointofmeaningless),hestucktowhathis
aidescalledanIraqfirststrategy.Americanairstrikes,whichhadlongbegunagainstISISforcesinIraq,wouldbeextendedtoSyria,butonlyoverthepathsthatISISusedtotravelbetweenthetwocountries.
ObamaalsoannouncedaprogramtotrainandequipmoderateSyrianrebelsonbasesinSaudiArabiabutnotedthattheywouldntbereadytofightISISformanymonthsclearly,Syriawasonthebackburner,at
best.

DaysafterObamasannouncement,ISISlaidsiegetoKobani,amainlyKurdishtownontheSyrian-Turkishborder.Thetownhadnostrategicsignificance,butamassacrewasinthemaking.Morethanthat,ISIS
wassendingthousandsofjihadistsintothetownforminganeasyconcentratedtarget,whichneitherthePentagonnorObamacouldresist.Obamaorderedmassiveairstrikes,whichkilledanestimated2,000to
3,000ISISfighters.
 AnexplosioncausedbyanairstrikeinKobani,Syria,November2014.

Inanotherunexpectedfeatureofthebattle,KurdishfightersgatheredtostaveoffISIS,foughtverycapably,andrecapturedthetown.ObamahadnotbeenopposedtogoingafterISISinsideSyriahejusthadnot
seenasuitablepartnerthatcouldcarryoutthefightontheground.IntheSyrianKurds,hefoundone,andU.S.airstrikescontinued,oftenintandemwithKurdishgroundassaults.Atthesametime,theCIAstarted
covertlyassistingagroupofrebelsinsouthernSyriawhosemainaimwastooverthrowAssad.Again,ObamahadopposedPetraeusplantoarmsomerebelsnotbecausehewasagainstarmingrebelsbutbecausehe
didnotseehowthatparticularplanorthoseparticularrebelswouldsucceed.Thenewplanseemedmoreplausible,inpartbecausetheCIAandtheU.S.militaryhadgatheredalotmoreintelligenceandscopedout
reliableforcesoverthepreviousyear.(Aseparate$500millionPentagonprogramtotrainandequipasmallgroupofnorthernSyrianrebelstofightISISprovedpubliclydisastrous:therebelsturnedouttobemore
interestedinfightingAssadsarmythanISIS,takingthemoutofthefighttotraininSaudiArabiaonlydisorientedthem,andmoremilitantrebelskilledalmostallofthemontheirreentryintoSyria.)

Viewedpiecebypiece,tacticalmovebytacticalmove,Obamasoperationsappearedtobemakingprogress.Butforeignfighterskeptfloodingtheregion,ISISwasbarelybudgedaside,andalthoughAssadsarmy
seemedimperiled,itwasstillquitelarge(ataround125,000troops)andrecoveredmuchofitsstrengthafterRussiasentintanksandjetfightersinSeptember2015.Russiasmoveraisedthehacklesofsomeof
Obamascritics,whosawPutinastryingtorevivetheSovietempire.Obamadidntbite,andwiselyso.AtanNSCmeeting,hecautionedagainstviewingRussiasinterventionthroughaColdWarprism.Wearenotat
warwithRussiaoverSyria,hesaid,accordingtoofficialswhowereatthemeeting.Putinsvitalinterestinthishadmuchtodowithhisowndomesticpolitics,andanalarmedAmericanresponsewouldhaveplayed
intohisgame.Finally,ObamadoubtedthattheRussianmilitarycampaignwouldhavemuchimpactonthebattle.

Nonetheless,Obamawasstillreceptivetoattractiveoptionsforhisownmilitaryposture.TheSyrianKurdswererackingupmoresuccesses(andrequiringmoreprotectionfromTurkey,whichwaspoundingthem
withairstrikeswhileclaimingtobegoingafterISIS),andsoObamaapprovedplanstosendtheKurdsmoreammunitionandtodeployU.S.SpecialForcestojointheminraidsonISISstrongholds,secretmissions
thatresultedinsixfatalitiesbeforeObamaannouncedtheactionspublicly.

Obamahasakeenlegalmind,whichserveshimandthecountrywellwhenhepokesholesinspeciousargumentsforriskypolicies.Butitalsoenableshimtorationalizehisownporouspositions:forinstance,that
conductingjointraidsfallsinthecategoryofadviseandassist,notbootsontheground.Hecanalsomakefirmassurancesthathewillnotpushthesegroundforcesanyfurther,ignoringthathehaslaidthe
groundworkandsetthelogicforhissuccessorintheWhiteHousetoescalatethefight,ifheorsheissoinclined.(Nottodrawpreciseparallels,butinasimilarvein,PresidentJohnF.Kennedyfirmlyresisted
pressurefromtheJointChiefsofStafftodeploycombattroopstoVietnamyetexpandedthescopeandnumbersofadvisersthere,leavingPresidentLyndonJohnsontobelievehewasfollowinginhis
predecessorsfootstepswhenhepoured500,000U.S.troopsintothefight.)

SyriaiswhereObamastoolsfordealingwithcrisesprovedinadequate.

UmitBektas/REUTERSAblackflagbelongingtoISISnearKobani,October2014.

THESEARCHFORORDER

WhathasbeenmissinginObamasSyriapolicy,inallitsphases,isacoherentstrategy.HistwoaimsdefeatingISISandpressuringAssadtostepdownareinsomewayscontradictory.Assadscontinuedreignhas
beenamagnetforforeignSunnifighterstojoinISIS.Butintheshortrun,Assadsarmy,ifproperlydirected,couldbethemostpotentanti-ISISforcesecondperhapsonlytoIran,whichhasbeensendingmembers
ofitseliteQudsForcetoprotectAssadsregime.ObamahasbeenconstrainedfromforminganovertalliancewithAssadorIran,inpartbecausehehasneededSunnialliesEgypt,Turkey,andtheGulfstatesto
delegitimizeanddefeattheSunniradicalsofISISifhebondedwithShiiteIranoritsclientAssad,thosecountriesmightdropoutofthecoalition.

ThereinliestheheartoftheproblemnotonlywithObamasstrategyagainstISISbutwithanyU.S.presidentsstabatsuchastrategy.IfallthecountriesthatfearedandloathedISISwhichistosay,almostallthe
countriesintheregionjoinedforces,ISISwouldcrumbleinshortorder.Buteachofthosecountrieshasmorefearandloathingforatleastoneofitspotentialallies(TurkeyfortheKurdsandSaudiArabiaforIran,
forexample).ForminganeffectivecoalitionhasthereforebeenallbutimpossibleafactthatISIScommandershaveshrewdlyexploited.

AsmanyofObamascriticscontend,acoherentregionalstrategynotjustaseriesofpiecemealresponsestocrisesisneededtosolvethisproblem.Butwhatisthisregionalstrategy?Whoshouldleadit?What
incentivesmightlurethepotentialcoalitionsplayerstosubordinatetheirindividualintereststothelargergoal?(InOctober,ObamadroppedhisreluctanceandinvitedIranandRussiatojointalksinViennatodiscussa
politicalsolutiontotheSyriancrisisandajointfightagainstISIS.Theprospectsseemeddim,untilontheveryeveoftheconferenceISISagentsmountedcoordinatedterroristattacksinParis.Althoughtheodds
remainlong,aplausiblepathtoasettlementopenedup.Obamaseemstohaverecognized,alongwithothers,thattranscendingthesectariandivideratherthanaccommodatingitandformingallianceswithrivals
againstlarger,commonthreatsistheonlywaytowardapeacefultransition.)

ThesecomplexitiesaresymptomaticofalargerphenomenonthataccountsforthesurgeofviolencethroughouttheMiddleEast:thebreakdownofthecolonialorderimposedattheendofWorldWarI.Thisorder,
withitsartificialbordersdesignedtosplitorsuppresstribalidentities,wouldhavecollapsedafterWorldWarII(alongwiththeBritishandFrenchcolonies)butforthedeepfreezeimposedbytheColdWar.Whenthe
SovietUnionimploded,theColdWartoodissolved,alongwiththeinternationalsecuritysystemthatithadcreatedandsustainedfornearlyhalfacentury.Withthesubsequentdiffusionofglobalpowerand
fragmentationofpowerblocs,thecollapseoftheMiddleEastsbordersandauthoritiesresumedaprocessacceleratedbyPresidentGeorgeW.Bushs2003invasionofIraq,whichdisruptedthebalanceofpower
amongnations,sects,andtribesthathadkeptanuneasypeacebetweenShiitesandSunnis,notonlywithinIraqbutacrosstheregion,asthedisruptionsripplesspread.

SomeofObamascriticsclaimthatifhehadfoundawaytokeep10,000AmericantroopsinIraqinsteadofgoingthroughwithacompletewithdrawalin2011,therenewalofsectarianviolenceandtheriseofISISto
fillthesubsequentpowervacuumwouldneverhavehappened.Butthisisextremelyunlikely,giventhatinanearliereraittookcloseto170,000U.S.combattroopsusingextraordinarymeasurestostemasimilartide,
andeventhentheywereabletodosoonlytemporarily.Inanycase,Obamahadnochoiceinthematter.Thestatus-of-forcesagreement(SOFA)thatBushsignedin2008demanded,AlltheUnitedStatesForcesshall
withdrawfromallIraqiterritorynolaterthanDecember31,2011.Obamawas,infact,amenabletokeeping5,000troopsinIraqforthelonghaulandsentemissariestoBaghdadtoseeifanextensioncouldbe
negotiated,butrevisionstotheSOFAincludingaU.S.demandthatAmericantroopsenjoyimmunityfromIraqilaw,requiredparliamentaryapproval,andnofactionsintheIraqiparliament,exceptperhapstheKurds,
wouldvotefortheAmericanstostay.(ObamahasbeenabletosendmilitaryforcesbacktoIraqonlybecausetheSOFAexpiredafterthreeyears.)

AsforAfghanistan,theotherwarthatObamapromisedandtriedtoend,itkeepsragingaswell.InOctober2015,reversinganearlierpolicytowithdrawallU.S.troopsfromthecountrybytheendofhisterm,
Obamaannouncedthat5,500wouldremaintheretocontinuetrainingandequippingAfghanforcesandtoconductcounterterroristoperations.

BAZRATNER/REUTERSU.S.soldiersfireahowitzerartillerypieceinKandaharProvince,Afghanistan,June2011.

ObamaannouncedthischangesoonafterTalibanfighterstookoverthenortherncityofKunduz,buthehadmadethedecisionafewmonthsearlier,accordingtoaseniorcounterterrorismofficial.ThenewAfghan
president,AshrafGhani,hadaskedObamanottowithdrawallU.S.troops,signedabilateralsecurityagreementgivingU.S.forceslegalprotections(anaccordthathispredecessor,HamidKarzai,hadrefusedto
consider),andpromisedreformstobroadeninclusivityandcrackdownoncorruption.Meanwhile,terroristgroupsstillflourishedacrosstheborderwithPakistan.NooneintheNSCopposedsustaininga
counterterroristforceonsomebaseintheregionherewasGhaniofferingthreeexistingbases.AninteragencystudyconductedbyGeneralMartinDempsey,thenthechairmanoftheJointChiefsofStaff,concluded
thatthemissioncouldbesupportedwith5,500troops.Andsothedecisionwasmade.Kunduz(whichAfghansoldiersquicklyrecaptured)wasthenewspegthatpreemptedpoliticalobjections.

ThetragedyofObamaspresidencyisthat,fromthebeginning,hehaswantedtoshiftawayfromthestagnantbattlefieldsinandaroundtheMiddleEastanddevotemoreattentiontotheAsia-Pacificregion,withits
prospectsfordynamicgrowth,trade,and,intheformofChina,anexpansionistpowerthatneedstobeatoncecontainedmilitarilyandluredintotheglobaleconomy.ThisfocusonAsiacametobecalledthepivot,
orrebalancing,butObamahadrecognizeditsappealanddiscusseditasfarbackashis2008presidentialcampaign.Heunderstood,andstilldoes,thatthisiswheretheUnitedStatesfutureinterestsliebutthe
never-endingcrisesoftheancientworldkeeppullinghimbackin.
LIMITEDINTERESTS,LIMITEDRISKS

AstheISISimbrogliowidened,yetanothercrisiserupted,thistimeinUkraine.AfterPutinbribedUkrainianPresidentViktorYanukovychwithanaidpackagetostophimfromsigninganassociationagreementwith
theEuropeanUnion,popularprotestsbrokeoutinKiev.WhenYanukovychcrackeddown,theprotestswidened,andhewasultimatelyforcedtoflee.PutinrespondedbysendingRussianforcestoseizetheCrimean
PeninsulaandsupportasecessionistrebellionineasternUkraine.

InNSCmeetingsheldtodecidehowtorespondtoRussiasmove,Obamaquicklyapprovedascriptofdenunciation,reinforcementsofU.S.militaryexercisesinandaroundeasternEuropesNATOallies(especially
theBalticstates),andastringofeconomicsanctions.

SomePentagonofficialswantedtogofurtherandsupplytheUkrainianarmywithlethaldefensiveweapons,especiallyTOWantitankmissiles.AccordingtoNSCofficials,VicePresidentJoeBidenstronglyendorsed
thisposition,sayingthattheUnitedStateshadamoralobligationtohelptheUkrainiansdefendthemselves,aswellasastrategicinterestinmakingPutinpayforhislandgrabandindeterringhimfromgoingfurther.
(NooneinanyNSCmeeting,however,advocatedsendingUkraineoffensiveweaponsordeployingU.S.troopstothecountry.)

CemOksuz/Pool/REUTERS

ObamatalkswithRussianPresidentVladimirPutinandU.S.NationalSecurityAdviserSusanRiceduringtheG20Leaders'SummitinAntalya,Turkey,November2015.

Intheend,Obamaapprovedtheprovisionofnonlethalmilitaryassistance,suchasnight-visionandradarequipment,andtrainingforUkrainesNationalGuard.Beyondthat,hewasopposed.TheUnitedStateshad
interestsinUkraine,butnotvitalinterests.Therewerereasonstwopreviouspresidentshadconsidered,thendecidedagainst,invitingKievsleaderstojoinNATO.First,pollshadsuggestedthatlessthanhalfof
Ukrainianswantedmembership.Second,RussiasinterestsinUkraine,unliketheUnitedStates,werevital:RussiaandUkrainesharedaborderandalonghistoryoftrade,culturalexchange,andevencommon
statehood.NoRussianleaderwouldstandbyasUkrainedriftedtoofarfromMoscowsorbit.

Obamalikestolookaheadtwoorthreesteps.(Hiscriticshaveseenthisasatechniqueforavoidingtheuseofforceothersseeitasamethodofrationaldecision-making.)Moscowcouldandwouldmatchorsurpass
anylethalweaponsthattheWestsuppliedtoKiev.Thenwhat?IfWashingtonsentstillmorearms,itwouldriskgettingsuckedintoanarmsrace,andtheviolencewouldintensify.IftheUnitedStatesdidnotrespond
inkind,theWestwouldhavelostthecontestObamawouldlookweaker,andRussiastronger,thanifhehadnotsentanyarmsinthefirstplace.

ThiswasObamasfirstprincipleinalldiscussionsaboutthecrisis:hewasnotgoingtoriskawarwithRussiaforthesakeofUkraine.Atonemeeting,hesaid,IfIwantedtoinvadeCanadaorMexico,noonecould
domuchaboutit.ThesamewastrueofPutinandUkraine.

Still,Obamaputahighvalueonenforcinginternationalnorms,oneofwhichwastheinviolabilityofborders.HefeltitnecessarytomakeRussiapayforitsviolationthequestionwashow.Militaryescalation,inthis
context,wasagameRussiawouldwin,butescalationofsanctionswasonetheUnitedStatescouldwin,ifObamacouldkeepEuropeanstatesonboard.Thiswasachallenge,formanyEuropeancountriesweremore
reliantonRussianenergysuppliesthantheUnitedStateswasandthereforemorevulnerabletoeconomicreprisalsfromRussia.TheywerealsodeadsetagainstriskingwaroverUkraine.IfObamawentupthemilitary
ladder,heknewtheywoulddropoutofthesanctionsregime.

Obamaskeenlegalmindallowshimtorationalizehisownporouspositions.

Atleastthroughthefallof2015,Obamaspolicyhasworked.DespitePutinseffortstosplitthetransatlanticalliance,itsmembershaveheldtightonthesanctions,andthecease-firenegotiatedinMinskinFebruary
hasheld,too.PutinslikelygoalinUkrainewastoweakenthecountryscentralgovernmentandkeepitfrommovingclosertotheWest.Atthat,hehassucceeded.IfObamaandthewesternEuropeannationshad
wantedtostrikebackonthatfront,tensofbillionsofdollarsineconomicaidwouldhavemeantalotmorethanafewhundredantitankmissiles.ButbeyondarelativelypaltryInternationalMonetaryFundgrant,no
oneseemedtowanttogodownthatroad.

PATIENCEANDPRAGMATISM

SohowdoesObamasrecordstackup?Thepresidenthasbeenbesiegedbyforeignpolicycrises,constrainedbydiminishedAmericanpower,andpressuredbyopponentsathomeandalliesabroadtotakeactionand
showleadership,evenwhendealingwithintractableproblems.Hehaslearnedonthejob,withhisinstinctsforcautionreinforcedbytheill-fatedLibyanintervention.Andhehas,attimes,talkedmoreboldlythanhe
hasacted,creatinganeedlessgapbetweenwordsanddeeds.

Andyetforthemostpart,hehasstayedtruetothetemplateofhisNobeladdress,keepingsightofthebigpictureasothershavegottenlostintheshrubs.Hiscautionaboutembarkingonunnecessarymilitary
adventuresanddesiretoavoidescalatorymilitaryspiralsseemwise.Obamahasalsoprovedremarkablypatientwithdrawn-outdiplomaticnegotiations,eventhoseunlikelytobearfruit.Someofthese,suchasthe
Israeli-Palestinianpeacetalks,havepredictablygonenowhere,butothers,suchastheopeningtoCubaandthenucleardealwithIran,havebeenstrikinglysuccessful.

Thesuccessesandfailuresstem,inpart,fromthedoggedoptimismofObamassecond-termsecretaryofstate,Kerry.ItisdoubtfulthatKerrysmorecautiouspredecessor,Clinton,ormostotherpastsecretariesof
state,wouldhavestuckwiththenucleartalkswithIranforaslongasKerrydidbutneitherwouldshehavespentsomuchtimeandefforttryingtojump-startamoribundMiddleEastpeaceprocess.

OnedownsidetoKerrysvisionofhisjob,asspecialenvoytotheworldsmosthopelesslogjams,isthatitleavesmuchoftherestoftheworldabitanxious.ThishasbeenespeciallytrueoftheUnitedStatesalliesin
AsiamostofallJapan,whoseleadersdemandconstanthandholding.DuringObamasfirstterm,KurtCampbell,theassistantsecretaryofstateforEastAsianandPacificaffairs,phonedhiscounterpartinTokyo
everydayandmetface-to-facewiththeJapaneseambassadorthreetimesaweek.OfficialswhodealwithAsianaffairssaythatafterCampbellleft,andKerryturnedtheStateDepartmentsfocusalmostexclusively
tohigh-profilepeacemissions,Tokyofeltabandoned.

Still,thishardlyamountedtoacrisis.First,whenBeijingstartedflexingitsnavalmusclesintheSouthChinaSea,Japan(andAustraliaandSouthKorea)clungeverclosertoWashington,howeverfrustrateditfeltat
times.Second,anotherbigpartoftheUnitedStatesrelationswithAsiainvolvessimplyshowingupandalthoughtheassistantsecretarymaynotbecallingasoften,ObamaandKerryshowupatalltheAsian
securityandeconomicsummits.Anxietyaboutabandonmentremainsithasbeenafactorfordecades,atleastsincetheUnitedStatespulledoutofVietnamandsecretlyreachedouttoChinaduringthepresidencyof
RichardNixon.ButObamasmissteps,whichhavebotheredalliesintheMiddleEast,havenotweighedatallonthoseinEastAsia.DanielSneider,theassociatedirectorforresearchattheWalterH.ShorensteinAsia-
PacificResearchCenteratStanfordUniversity,hasmetprivatelywithdozensofpoliticalandmilitaryleadersfromJapanandSouthKorea.Hesays,Iveneverheardanyofthemsayawordabouttheredlinein
Syria.

OnAugust5,2015,thepresidentdeliveredaspiritedspeechatAmericanUniversitydefendingthenucleardealthatheandfiveotherworldpowershadnegotiatedwithIran.Severaltimes,hequotedKennedysfamous
AmericanUniversityspeechin1963callingforanendtotheColdWarmindsetandanewstrategybasedonapracticalandattainablepeace,onebasednotonasuddenrevolutioninhumannaturebutona
gradualevolutioninhumaninstitutionsonaseriesofconcreteactionsandeffectiveagreements.

Laterthatday,Obamaheldanon-the-recordroundtablediscussionwithtencolumnistsintheWhiteHouse.Whenmyturncametoaskaquestion,InotedthatKennedyhaddeliveredhisspeechafterseveralcrisesin
whichherealizedthathisadviserswereoftenwrongandthatheshouldplacemoretrustinhisowninstincts.Whatlessons,IaskedObama,hadhelearnedinhiscrises?Whatdecisionsmighthehavemade
differently,hadheknownthenwhatheknowsnow?Heanswered:

IwouldsaythatIhavebeenconsistentinmybroadviewofhowAmericanpowershouldbedeployedandtheviewthatweunderestimateourpowerwhenwerestrictittojustourmilitarypower....
 Theresnodoubtthat,aftersixandahalfyears,IamthatmuchmoreconfidentintheassessmentsImakeandcanprobablyseearoundthecornersfasterthanIdidwhenIfirstcameintooffice.The
mapisntalwaystheterritory,andyouhavetokindofwalkthroughittogetafeelforit.

IntermsofdecisionsImake,IdothinkthatIhaveabettersenseofhowmilitaryactioncanresultinunintendedconsequences.AndIamconfirmedinmybeliefthatmuchofthetime,wearemaking
judgmentsbasedonpercentages,and...therearealwaysgoingtobesomecomplications.

AndsomaybeatthesametimeasImmoreconfidenttoday,Imalsomorehumble.Andthatspartofthereasonwhy,whenIseeasituationlikethisone[thepossibilityofanucleardealwithIran],
wherewecanachieveanobjectivewithaunifiedworldbehindusandwepreserveourhedgeagainstitsnotworkingout,Ithinkitwouldbefoolisheventragicforustopassuponthatopportunity.

ThisarticlehasbeenupdatedtocorrectthedatethatPresidentObamadeliveredaspeechabouttheIrannucleardealatAmericanUniversity.ItwasAugust5,2015,notApril5.
 From: RobertOtto<robertotto25@gmail.com>
Senttime: 12/31/201510:53:51AM
To: DavidKramer<djkmd1@aol.com>
Subject: HowObamaMakesForeignPolicy|ForeignAffairs

http://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/2015-12-07/obamas-way?cid=emc-Dec15_Remail_A-content-
123115&sp_mid=50368504&sp_rid=cm9iZXJ0b3R0bzI1QGdtYWlsLmNvbQS2&spMailingID=50368504&spUserID=OTQ5NTcwNTM2OTIS1&spJobID=824531828&spReportId=ODI0NTMxODI4S0

Obama'sWay
OnJanuary28,2009,barelyaweekintohispresidency,BarackObamametwiththeU.S.militarystopgeneralsandadmiralsontheirownturf,insidethetank,theJointChiefsofStaffsconferenceroomonthe
secondfloorofthePentagon.Aseniorofficialrecalledthenewpresidentasremarkablyconfidentcomposed,relaxed,butalsodeferential,nottryingtoacttoomuchthecommanderinchief.Obamawalked
aroundtheroom,introducinghimselftoeveryonehethankedthemandtheentirearmedforcesfortheirserviceandsacrificethenhesatdownforafreewheelingdiscussionoftheworldschallenges,regionby
region,crisisbycrisis.Hewasthemaninfull,theofficialsaid,fluentoneveryissue,butmorethanthatasurprisetotheofficers,whohadbeenleeryofthisyoung,inexperiencedDemocrathedisplayedadeep
streakofrealism.

Atonepoint,Obamaremarkedthathewasnotthesortofpersonwhodrivesdownastreetwishinghecouldparkwhereverhelikes.Ifhesawanopenspot,evenonethatrequiredsometrickyparallelparking,he
wouldbefinewithsqueezingintoit.Obamasmeaningwasclear:hehadbeendealtabadhand(twounpopularwars,alienatedallies,thedeepestrecessionindecades),buthewouldfindawaytodealwiththeworld
asitwas.

Sevenyearslater,manyofficersanddefenseofficials,includingsomewhoweresoimpressedwithObamaatthestart,lookbackathispresidencyasfollowingadifferentstyleofgoverning.Theylaudthehistoric
accomplishmentstheIrannucleardeal,theopeningtoCuba,theTrans-PacificPartnership,theprevention(sofar)ofanotherterroristattackonAmericansoilandtheyacknowledgethathehasoftentriedtomake
thebestofbadchoices.Buttoooften,theysay,hehasavoidedtakingaction,waitingforconditionstogetbettercirclingtheblockand,inhisownmetaphor,waitingforabetterparkingspottoopenup.

ThisisacommoncritiqueofObamasforeignpolicy:thatheevadesharddecisions,thatheisallergictomilitaryforceifitrisksAmericancasualtiesorescalation,thatthereisoftenamismatchbetweenhiswordsand
hisdeeds.Thisisapattern,oneretiredfour-stargeneralsaid.Heissuessternwarnings,thendoesnothing.ItdamagesAmericancredibility.

Isthechargetrue?Andtotheextentthatithassomevalidity,howmuchcanbelaidatObamasfeet,andhowmuchshouldbeattributedtotheintractabilityoftheproblemshehasfaced?Wouldadifferentsortof
presidenthavehandledthedecadeschallengesbetter,andifso,how?

ThefollowingexaminationofkeycrisesanddecisionsisbasedonconversationsIhavehadwithdozensofofficialsacrossthespanofObamaspresidencyandwith20mid-tosenior-levelofficials(pastandpresent,
almostallonabackgroundbasis)interviewedspecificallyforthisarticle.

THELESSONOFLIBYA

InDecember2009,ObamajourneyedtoOslotoreceivetheNobelPeacePrize.Theawardwaspremature,tosaytheleast,butheusedhisacceptancespeechtolaydowntheprinciplesofaforeignpolicyhehopedto
followasophisticatedgrapplingwiththetensionsbetweenidealismandrealism.ItwasadaringspeechforaPeacePrizerecipient.Tosaythatforcemaysometimesbenecessaryisnotacalltocynicism,hesaid.
Itisarecognitionofhistory,theimperfectionofman,andthelimitsofreason.Nationsmustadheretostandardsthatgoverntheuseofforce,andajust,lastingpeacemustbebasedontheinherentrightsand
dignityofeveryindividual.Still,Americacannotactalone,exceptonmattersofvitalnationalinterest,andmereloftyrhetoricabouthumanrightsonlysustainsacripplingstatusquo.Engagementwithrepressive
regimesmaylackthesatisfyingpurityofindignation,butnorepressiveregimecanmovedownanewpathunlessithasthechoiceofanopendoor.

BenjaminRhodes,Obamasdeputynationalsecurityadviserforstrategiccommunications,said,Whenpeopleaskmetosummarize[Obamas]foreignpolicy,Itellthemtotakeacloselookatthatspeech.Another
formertopWhiteHouseofficialcalleditatemplatetohowheapproachesproblems,aframeworkforhowhethinksaboutU.S.power.Whetherhefollowedthetemplatehowhegrappledinactionwiththe
tensionsherecognizedintheorywouldbe,byhisownstandard,themeasureofhispresidency.

TheearlyyearsofObamastermweretakenupwithchallengesinheritedfromtheBushadministration,especiallythewarsinAfghanistanandIraq.Atthestartof2011,however,astringofnewproblemsemerged,
asdomesticprotestsagainstauthoritarianleadersbrokeoutacrosstheMiddleEast.TheBenAliregimeinTunisiafellinJanuary,andtheMubarakregimeinEgyptfollowedinearlyFebruary.BylateFebruary,rebels
opposedtotheLibyandictatorMuammaral-QaddafihadseizedcontrolincitiessuchasBenghazi,andthedictatorsdaysseemednumbered.Butthenthetideofwarreversed,andQaddafisforcesmovedtocrushthe
uprising.

ObamaattheNobelPeacePrizeawardceremonyinOslo,December2009.

Withtensofthousandsofcivilianlivesatrisk,theObamaadministration,whichhadcomeoutinsupportoftherebels,facedadifficultchoice.ThemembersoftheArabLeaguewereunanimouslyimploringthe
UnitedStatestogetinvolved.NATOallieswerekeentointerveneinsupportofthearmedrebels,andaUNSecurityCouncilresolutionwasintheworks.AtaNationalSecurityCouncilmeetingcalledtodiscussthe
crisis,SecretaryofStateHillaryClinton,U.S.AmbassadortotheUNSusanRice,andsomeofObamasNSCstaffarguedforaction,citingmoralimperativesandtheprospectofatrulymultilateralforce.But
accordingtoseveralpeoplepresentatthemeeting,Pentagonofficialsopposedintervening,pointingoutthattheUnitedStateshadnovitalinterestsinLibyaandthatanyseriouscommitmentwouldgetWashington
boggeddown,possiblyforyears.

Twooptionsweresetbeforethepresident:goinallthewayastheleaderofanalliance,ordontgoinatall.Obamasresponsewastocomeupwithathirdway,whichemergedashethoughtthroughtheproblemout
loud.Earlyon,hearticulatedtheprinciplesthatwouldunderliewhatevercoursehechose:noU.S.bootsontheground,nomilitaryactionatallunlessithadalegalbasisandadecentchanceofsucceeding,and,
finally,anappropriatedivisionoflaborwithalliestheU.S.militarywouldprovideitsuniquecapabilities(amongthemprecisionbombingandintelligencesharing),butU.S.allies,whohadafargreaterinterestinthe
conflictsoutcome,wouldassumethebruntofprotectingLibyanciviliansandrestoringorderafterthefighting.
InaninterviewatthetimewithTheNewYorker,anObamaadviser(whoseidentityremainsunknown)dubbedthisapproachleadingfrombehind,atermthatwouldcomeinformuchderision.Butincontext,it
madesense,anditfitObamasoutlookontheroleandlimitsofmilitaryforce,thedistinctionbetweeninterestsandvitalinterests,andtheneedtoaligntheinstrumentsofpowerwiththeintensityofthoseinterests.

Thefirstphaseoftheresultingoperationwasultimatelyasuccess.ThecombinationofU.S.airstrikesandintelligence,NATOairsupport,andrebelmovementsonthegroundledtothedefeatofQaddafisforcesand
(althoughthiswasnotanexplicitaimofthecampaign)thekillingoftheLibyanleaderhimself.Butthesecondphasewasafailure:anewgovernmentwasneverfullyformed,therebelfactionssquabblesdegenerated
intocivilwar,andthecountryssocialorder(suchasitwas)collapsed.

TheproblemwasthattheNATOalliesthathadpromisedtoleadthestabilizationphaseofapost-QaddafiLibyadidnotfollowthrough,inpartbecausethisphaseturnedouttobemuchmoreviolentthantheyhad
anticipated.Restoring(or,really,creating)orderwouldhaverequiredarmedinterventionandpossiblyseriouscombatontheground,amissionforwhichEuropeanstateshadlittlecapacityandlessappetite.

Obamarecognizedthefailure,acknowledginginhisSeptember2015speechtotheUNGeneralAssembly,EvenaswehelpedtheLibyanpeoplebringanendtothereignofatyrant,ourcoalitioncouldhaveand
shouldhavedonemoretofillavacuumleftbehind.AndthelessonweighedonhimwhenconsideringhowtohandleasimilarcrisisinSyria.

ZohraBensemra/REUTERSLibyanrebelsattheairportinMisrata,May2011.

THESYRIANSINKHOLE

AstheArabSpringevolved,demonstrationsbrokeoutinDamascusagainstSyrianPresidentBasharal-Assad.Assadstruckbackwithextremeforce,killingprotestersfirstbythehundreds,thenbythethousands.
Gradually,arebelforcearose,andthecountryplungedintocivilwar.WiththeUnitedStateshavingalreadyintervenedinLibyaundersimilarcircumstances,thequestionnaturallyarosewhetheritwouldintervenein
Syriaaswell.

InanNSCmeeting,Obamaspelledoutthedifferencesbetweenthetwoconflicts.Libyasfightinghadtakenplaceonanopendesert,whichallowedforcleartargetingSyriawasenmeshedinurbanwarfare,with
civilians,rebels,andsoldiersintermingled.TheLibyanrebelshadhadachanceatformingacohesivegovernmenttherewerenosuchpossibilitiesinSyria.NootheroutsidepowerwascallingontheUnitedStatesto
intervenethistimearound.Finally,theconflictwascascadingintoaproxywarfortheregionwideSunni-Shiiteconfrontation.NotonlydidtheUnitedStateshavelittleatstakeinthisfight,butitalsohadlittleabilityto
influenceitsdirectionoroutcome.Accordingtoseveralattendeesofthemeeting,nobodyreallydisagreedwiththesepoints.

Andyettheadministrationhadaligneditselfwiththeseasonspopularuprisings.InMay,inaspeechofuncharacteristicexuberance,Obamalikenedtheturmoiltopreviouserasofdemocraticrevolution.Hespoke
withparticularurgencyaboutSyria,proclaimingthatAssadmuststopshootinghisownpeopleandallowhumanrightsmonitorstoenterthecountry.InAugust,ObamajoinedwiththeleadersofFrance,Germany,
andtheUnitedKingdomincallingonAssadtostepdown.Syriasrulerwasonthewrongsideofhistory,Obamasaid,declaringthatthetimehascomeforPresidentAssadtostepaside.

Forthemostpart,ObamahasstayedtruetothetemplateofhisNobeladdress,keepingsightofthebigpictureasothershavegottenlostintheshrubs.

Suchrhetoricwasdrivenbytwofactors.First,theaidesinObamasinnercirclefewofwhomknewanythingaboutMiddleEasternpoliticsreallydidthinkAssadsregimewasnearingcollapse.Second,giventhat
apparentfact,theyfeltitwasbesttoputtheadministrationpubliclyontherightsideofhistory,especiallysincealliednationswerecallingonObamatoshowleadership.

Therhetoricwasnotentirelyempty.Obamadidaskhismilitaryandintelligencechiefstocomeupwithplanstospeedhistoryalong,andinthesummerof2012,CIADirectorDavidPetraeuslaidoutaschemetoarm
agroupofmoderateSyrianrebels.Theplan,whichPetraeushadformulatedwithSaudiPrinceBandarbinSultanandafewotherArabsecuritychiefs,calledforshippingsmallarms,mainlyrifles,toasmall,select
groupoftheSyrianopposition.PetraeusdidnotpromisethemoonheexplicitlysaidthattheserebelscouldnotoustAssadrightawayandthatthegoalwastoputpressureonAssad.IfyouresayingAssadmust
go,hewastellingthepresident,hereshowtheCIAcanhelp.TheplanhadthebackingofClinton,SecretaryofDefenseLeonPanetta,andtheJointChiefsofStaff.Butthepresidentrejectedit.

GORANTOMASEVIC/REUTERS

AFreeSyrianArmyfighterinAleppo,August2012.

ObamawasnotopposedtotakingactionhehadaskedPetraeusandPanettaforoptions.Buthewasopposedtodoingsomethingmerelyforthesakeofdoingsomething,andthePetraeusplanseemedtofallintothat
category.Whoweretheserebels,heasked?CouldtheUnitedStatesreallydistinguishthegoodonesfromthebadones?(Petraeusinsistedthathecould,butObamawasunconvinced.)Iftheserebelsdidemergeasa
threattotheregime,wouldIran,whichhadinvestedheavilyinAssad,simplystandby,orwoulditintervene(asObamathoughtmorelikely)?

InNSCmeetings,severalattendeesrecall,PetraeusacknowledgedthatitmighttakeyearsfortherebelstomountaneffectivechallengetoAssadsrule.Meanwhile,theCIAsplanmightthrowAssadpsychologically
andgiveWashingtonskininthegame,apathtoinfluenceoverthelonghaul.ThiswasnotawinningargumentwithObama:hewaslookingforsomethingthathadachanceofsucceedinginthenearterm,andhe
didnotwantskininagameplayedinthequagmireofasectariancivilwar.WhilePetraeuswasworkinguptheplan,ObamaaskedtheCIAtoproduceapaperonhowofteninthepastU.S.armshadsucceededin
helpingrebelsousthostilegovernments.Theanswer:notveryoften.Thatsealedthecase.

Althoughgroundedinlogicandhistory,therejectionofinterventioninSyriasetoffthefirstwavesofdiscontentoverObamasforeignpolicyingeneralthenotionthathedidnotwanttouseforce,thathewas
alwaysonthelookoutforargumentsthatrationalizedthisdisinclination,thathetalkedboldbutfailedtofollowthrough,whichmadeallhiscommitmentsringhollow.

Lateron,astheself-proclaimedIslamicState(alsoknownasISIS)tookcontrolofvastswathsofIraqandSyria,ObamascriticsarguedthatifonlythepresidenthadacceptedPetraeusplan,ISISmightnothave
foundafoothold.Buttheclaimseemsfar-fetchedeventhoughafewofObamascloseadvisersallow,inretrospect,thatitmighthavebeenworthgivingPetraeusoptionachance.Inanycase,twoyearslater,
Obamaapprovedasimilarplan.However,whentheAmerican-backedrebelsstartedrackingupvictoriesonthebattlefieldandappearedtobeclosinginonAssad,Obamaspredictionofwhatwouldhappennextcame
true:theIraniansredoubledtheirsupportforAssad,sendingQudsForcesoldierstofighttherebels.AndRussianPresidentVladimirPutin,fearingthelossofMoscowssoleoutpostoutsidetheformerSovietUnion,
senttanks,planes,andmissilestosupporttheSyrianarmy.

REDLINE,REDFACE

SyriaiswhereObamasforeignpolicymetitsmostbrutalchallenge,andwherehistoolsfordealingwithcriseswords,logic,persistentquestions,andsequentialproblemsolvingprovedinadequate.

Atleastfivetimesintheeight-monthspanbetweenAugust2012andApril2013,ObamaoradministrationofficialspubliclywarnedAssadthatusingchemicalweaponsagainstrebelsandprotesterswouldcrossa
redline.Itwouldmarkagamechangerfromourperspective,Obamaelaboratedononeoccasion.Therewouldbeenormousconsequences,hesaidonanother.Itwouldbetotallyunacceptable,andAssad
wouldbeheldaccountable.Yetdespitesuchutterances,saycloseaidesandofficials,thepresidentneverorderedupaplanforwhattodoifAssadcrossedtheline.

Then,onAugust21,2013,rocketshellscontainingsaringasslammedrebel-controlledareasintheDamascussuburbs,killinganestimated1,500people.Theredlinehadbeencrossed.Obamaswiftlydecidedto
retaliate.Attackplansweredrawnup,mostofthemdesignedtodestroynotthechemicalstockpilesthemselves(explosionsofwhichmightspreadthegasfarandwide)butratherthemunitionsandfacilitiesrequired
tolaunchthemintobattle.Assadsregimewasnottheexplicittargetinanyoftheseplans,butsomeWhiteHouseaidesthought,orhoped,thathisstrengthmighterodeasasideeffect.

PeteSouza/WhiteHouse/HandoutviaReuters

ObamameetswithnationalsecuritystafftodiscussthesituationinSyriaintheWhiteHouseSituationRoom,August2013.

Obamaseemedtobeseriousaboutlaunchingthestrikes.HisaideswereinstructedtophonelegislatorsandjournaliststomakesuretheyhadreadanunclassifiedintelligencereportthattheWhiteHousehadjust
releasedprovingthatAssadwasbehindthechemicalattacks.AUNresolutionbackingtheuseofforceinSyriawasunlikelyRussiaandpossiblyChinawouldvetoit.SoObamaralliedArabandNATOnationstojoin
intheattack,oratleasttoendorseit.Hegotnosuchsupport,exceptfromFranceandtheUnitedKingdombutthenBritishPrimeMinisterDavidCameronrequestedauthorizationforanattackfromParliament,
whichvoteditdown.

OnAugust31,theNSCmetformorethantwohours.EveryonearoundthetableagreedthattheUnitedKingdomsbackpedaling,althoughregrettable,shouldnotaffectthepresidentsdecisionandthatheshould
proceedwiththeairstrikes.Ateamoflawyersadvisedhimthathehadthelegalauthoritytodoso.Afterthemeeting,however,ObamafamouslytookawalkontheWhiteHousebacklawnwithhischiefofstaff,
DenisMcDonough,andwhenhecamebacktotheSituationRoom,heannouncedthathehaddecidedtoletCongressvoteonthequestion.

Allofthepresidentsaidesandofficialsweresurprised,andnotinagoodway.ButObamaexplainedthatheneededsomeinstitutionalbackingforsuchadrastic,riskymove.Abombingcampaignmightkillnearby
civilians,anditmighthavenoimpactonAssad.WhatifAssaddoubleddownandlaunchedmoreattacks,chemicalorotherwise?IftheUnitedStatesansweredwithstillmoreairstrikes,itwouldriskgettingsucked
intoacivilwar,andifitdidnothing,thatwouldbeworsestill:Washingtonwouldlookweaker,andAssadwouldemergestronger,thaniftheUnitedStateshaddonenothingtobeginwith.SomeWhiteHouseaideshad
viewedairstrikesasaone-offproposition,butPentagonofficialshadarguedduringtheNSCmeetingsthatifObamawentaheadwithairstrikes(whichtheysupported),heshouldbepreparedforescalation.Obama
suspectedthePentagonwasright.Whateverhedid,hisactions(orinaction)wouldsirecriticismanddisunitytheywouldreceivelittlesupportandcouldnotbesustained.

Tomanyaroundthetable,eachseparatepieceofObamasargumentmadesense,buttheoveralllogicdidnot.Maybeitwasabadideatoproceedwithairstrikes,butinthatcase,Obamashouldnothavedrawnthose
redlines:heshouldnothaverecitedtherationaleforairstrikestosomanydiplomats,journalists,andlegislatorsheshouldnothavetoldSecretaryofStateJohnKerrytomakeacaseforthebombings(inapowerful
speechjusthoursbeforehechangedcourse)andaftermakingthisnewdecision,hecertainlyshouldnothavegoneaheadwithascheduledprime-timetelevisionaddressinwhichhedetailedAssadsperfidy,laidout
thenationalsecurityconcerns,claimedhehadthelegalauthoritytorespondwithunilateralairstrikesandthenannouncedthathewassendingthemattertoCongress.

Attimes,Obamahastalkedmoreboldlythanhehasacted,creatinganeedlessgapbetweenwordsanddeeds.

OneNSCofficialwhowasrelievedthatthestrikesdidnottakeplaceneverthelesssaid,Wepaidapriceforpullingback.TheperceptionamongpeopleintheregionwasthattheycouldntrelyonObamatopullthe
trigger.AformertopWhiteHouseofficialsaid,WhenpeopleseriouspeoplesayObamaisindecisiveanduncertain,theyretalkingaboutthisepisodewithSyria.

TheWhiteHouselobbiedCongresstopassaresolutionauthorizingtheuseofforce,butthetaskwasclearlyfutile:mostRepublicansdidnotwanttodoanyfavorsforObama,andmanyDemocratswereleeryof
militaryaction.Intheend,Russiacametotherescue.AtapressconferenceonSeptember9,KerrywasaskedifAssadcoulddoanythingtoavoidairstrikes.Kerryreplied,Sure,hecouldturnovereverybitofhis
[chemical]weaponstotheinternationalcommunitywithinthenextweek,withoutdelay,adding,butheisntaboutto.Toeveryonesastonishment,RussianForeignMinisterSergeyLavrovrepliedthathecould
makethathappenandhedid.UnderRussianpressure,Assadsurrenderedverynearlyallofhischemicalweaponsfordestruction.

Obamaandhisaidesdeclaredvictory,notingthatthisdiplomaticsolutionwasmoreeffectivethanmilitarystrikeswouldhavebeenandthatthethreatofthosestrikeswaswhathaddrivenRussiatopressureAssad.
Thefirstclaimwasprobablytruethesecondprobablywasnot.ThefactisCongressseemedcertaintodefeatObamasmotionbeforeRussiasteppedin.ItispossiblethatPutinneverbelievedthatObamawouldfeel
boundbyCongress,thathewouldfindsomewaytolaunchthestrikesanyway.Butmorepertinent,Russianleadershavealwaystakenpainstokeepweaponsofmassdestructionbiological,chemical,ornuclear
outoftheirallieshands:notsomuchbecausetheyabhorthoseweaponsasbecausetheyabhorthelossofcontrol.MoscowhaditsowninterestsinstrippingtheloosecannonAssadoftheseghastlyweapons,and
sincetheredlinecrisishadforcedObamatofocusonthechemicalsandnotonAssadsregime,thediplomaticsavewouldserveoneofRussiasvitalintereststhepreservationofMoscowsonlyfootholdinthe
MiddleEast.

THEISISCRISIS

Theredlinefiascowasalowpointintheadministrationsforeignpolicy,butthetroublesinSyriawerehardlyover.Lessthanayearafterthechemicalweaponssettlement,ISISwhichObamahadrecentlydismissed
asaJVversionofalQaedastormedMosul,thesecond-largestcityinIraq.TheU.S.-trainedIraqisoldiersfledatfirstcontact,andthearmedjihadistsbarreledontoRamadiandFallujahand,forawhile,came
perilouslyclosetoBaghdad.

ThejihadistshadstartedoutandwerelargelybasedinSyria,butObamafocusedhisanti-ISISstrategyonIraqbecausethatswhereitmighthavesomeeffecttheUnitedStates,afterall,hadresources,airbases,and
apartnershipofsortswithafunctioninggovernmentinthecountryandithadnoneofthosethingsinSyria,whereObamaremainedproperlywaryofdivingintoasectariancivilwar.EvenbySeptember2014,when
ObamarealizedthatSyriacouldntbeignored(itwas,afterall,theheadquartersofISISoperations,andheknewverywellthattheIraqi-Syrianborderwasporoustothepointofmeaningless),hestucktowhathis
aidescalledanIraqfirststrategy.Americanairstrikes,whichhadlongbegunagainstISISforcesinIraq,wouldbeextendedtoSyria,butonlyoverthepathsthatISISusedtotravelbetweenthetwocountries.
ObamaalsoannouncedaprogramtotrainandequipmoderateSyrianrebelsonbasesinSaudiArabiabutnotedthattheywouldntbereadytofightISISformanymonthsclearly,Syriawasonthebackburner,at
best.

DaysafterObamasannouncement,ISISlaidsiegetoKobani,amainlyKurdishtownontheSyrian-Turkishborder.Thetownhadnostrategicsignificance,butamassacrewasinthemaking.Morethanthat,ISIS
wassendingthousandsofjihadistsintothetownforminganeasyconcentratedtarget,whichneitherthePentagonnorObamacouldresist.Obamaorderedmassiveairstrikes,whichkilledanestimated2,000to
3,000ISISfighters.
 AnexplosioncausedbyanairstrikeinKobani,Syria,November2014.

Inanotherunexpectedfeatureofthebattle,KurdishfightersgatheredtostaveoffISIS,foughtverycapably,andrecapturedthetown.ObamahadnotbeenopposedtogoingafterISISinsideSyriahejusthadnot
seenasuitablepartnerthatcouldcarryoutthefightontheground.IntheSyrianKurds,hefoundone,andU.S.airstrikescontinued,oftenintandemwithKurdishgroundassaults.Atthesametime,theCIAstarted
covertlyassistingagroupofrebelsinsouthernSyriawhosemainaimwastooverthrowAssad.Again,ObamahadopposedPetraeusplantoarmsomerebelsnotbecausehewasagainstarmingrebelsbutbecausehe
didnotseehowthatparticularplanorthoseparticularrebelswouldsucceed.Thenewplanseemedmoreplausible,inpartbecausetheCIAandtheU.S.militaryhadgatheredalotmoreintelligenceandscopedout
reliableforcesoverthepreviousyear.(Aseparate$500millionPentagonprogramtotrainandequipasmallgroupofnorthernSyrianrebelstofightISISprovedpubliclydisastrous:therebelsturnedouttobemore
interestedinfightingAssadsarmythanISIS,takingthemoutofthefighttotraininSaudiArabiaonlydisorientedthem,andmoremilitantrebelskilledalmostallofthemontheirreentryintoSyria.)

Viewedpiecebypiece,tacticalmovebytacticalmove,Obamasoperationsappearedtobemakingprogress.Butforeignfighterskeptfloodingtheregion,ISISwasbarelybudgedaside,andalthoughAssadsarmy
seemedimperiled,itwasstillquitelarge(ataround125,000troops)andrecoveredmuchofitsstrengthafterRussiasentintanksandjetfightersinSeptember2015.Russiasmoveraisedthehacklesofsomeof
Obamascritics,whosawPutinastryingtorevivetheSovietempire.Obamadidntbite,andwiselyso.AtanNSCmeeting,hecautionedagainstviewingRussiasinterventionthroughaColdWarprism.Wearenotat
warwithRussiaoverSyria,hesaid,accordingtoofficialswhowereatthemeeting.Putinsvitalinterestinthishadmuchtodowithhisowndomesticpolitics,andanalarmedAmericanresponsewouldhaveplayed
intohisgame.Finally,ObamadoubtedthattheRussianmilitarycampaignwouldhavemuchimpactonthebattle.

Nonetheless,Obamawasstillreceptivetoattractiveoptionsforhisownmilitaryposture.TheSyrianKurdswererackingupmoresuccesses(andrequiringmoreprotectionfromTurkey,whichwaspoundingthem
withairstrikeswhileclaimingtobegoingafterISIS),andsoObamaapprovedplanstosendtheKurdsmoreammunitionandtodeployU.S.SpecialForcestojointheminraidsonISISstrongholds,secretmissions
thatresultedinsixfatalitiesbeforeObamaannouncedtheactionspublicly.

Obamahasakeenlegalmind,whichserveshimandthecountrywellwhenhepokesholesinspeciousargumentsforriskypolicies.Butitalsoenableshimtorationalizehisownporouspositions:forinstance,that
conductingjointraidsfallsinthecategoryofadviseandassist,notbootsontheground.Hecanalsomakefirmassurancesthathewillnotpushthesegroundforcesanyfurther,ignoringthathehaslaidthe
groundworkandsetthelogicforhissuccessorintheWhiteHousetoescalatethefight,ifheorsheissoinclined.(Nottodrawpreciseparallels,butinasimilarvein,PresidentJohnF.Kennedyfirmlyresisted
pressurefromtheJointChiefsofStafftodeploycombattroopstoVietnamyetexpandedthescopeandnumbersofadvisersthere,leavingPresidentLyndonJohnsontobelievehewasfollowinginhis
predecessorsfootstepswhenhepoured500,000U.S.troopsintothefight.)

SyriaiswhereObamastoolsfordealingwithcrisesprovedinadequate.

UmitBektas/REUTERSAblackflagbelongingtoISISnearKobani,October2014.

THESEARCHFORORDER

WhathasbeenmissinginObamasSyriapolicy,inallitsphases,isacoherentstrategy.HistwoaimsdefeatingISISandpressuringAssadtostepdownareinsomewayscontradictory.Assadscontinuedreignhas
beenamagnetforforeignSunnifighterstojoinISIS.Butintheshortrun,Assadsarmy,ifproperlydirected,couldbethemostpotentanti-ISISforcesecondperhapsonlytoIran,whichhasbeensendingmembers
ofitseliteQudsForcetoprotectAssadsregime.ObamahasbeenconstrainedfromforminganovertalliancewithAssadorIran,inpartbecausehehasneededSunnialliesEgypt,Turkey,andtheGulfstatesto
delegitimizeanddefeattheSunniradicalsofISISifhebondedwithShiiteIranoritsclientAssad,thosecountriesmightdropoutofthecoalition.

ThereinliestheheartoftheproblemnotonlywithObamasstrategyagainstISISbutwithanyU.S.presidentsstabatsuchastrategy.IfallthecountriesthatfearedandloathedISISwhichistosay,almostallthe
countriesintheregionjoinedforces,ISISwouldcrumbleinshortorder.Buteachofthosecountrieshasmorefearandloathingforatleastoneofitspotentialallies(TurkeyfortheKurdsandSaudiArabiaforIran,
forexample).ForminganeffectivecoalitionhasthereforebeenallbutimpossibleafactthatISIScommandershaveshrewdlyexploited.

AsmanyofObamascriticscontend,acoherentregionalstrategynotjustaseriesofpiecemealresponsestocrisesisneededtosolvethisproblem.Butwhatisthisregionalstrategy?Whoshouldleadit?What
incentivesmightlurethepotentialcoalitionsplayerstosubordinatetheirindividualintereststothelargergoal?(InOctober,ObamadroppedhisreluctanceandinvitedIranandRussiatojointalksinViennatodiscussa
politicalsolutiontotheSyriancrisisandajointfightagainstISIS.Theprospectsseemeddim,untilontheveryeveoftheconferenceISISagentsmountedcoordinatedterroristattacksinParis.Althoughtheodds
remainlong,aplausiblepathtoasettlementopenedup.Obamaseemstohaverecognized,alongwithothers,thattranscendingthesectariandivideratherthanaccommodatingitandformingallianceswithrivals
againstlarger,commonthreatsistheonlywaytowardapeacefultransition.)

ThesecomplexitiesaresymptomaticofalargerphenomenonthataccountsforthesurgeofviolencethroughouttheMiddleEast:thebreakdownofthecolonialorderimposedattheendofWorldWarI.Thisorder,
withitsartificialbordersdesignedtosplitorsuppresstribalidentities,wouldhavecollapsedafterWorldWarII(alongwiththeBritishandFrenchcolonies)butforthedeepfreezeimposedbytheColdWar.Whenthe
SovietUnionimploded,theColdWartoodissolved,alongwiththeinternationalsecuritysystemthatithadcreatedandsustainedfornearlyhalfacentury.Withthesubsequentdiffusionofglobalpowerand
fragmentationofpowerblocs,thecollapseoftheMiddleEastsbordersandauthoritiesresumedaprocessacceleratedbyPresidentGeorgeW.Bushs2003invasionofIraq,whichdisruptedthebalanceofpower
amongnations,sects,andtribesthathadkeptanuneasypeacebetweenShiitesandSunnis,notonlywithinIraqbutacrosstheregion,asthedisruptionsripplesspread.

SomeofObamascriticsclaimthatifhehadfoundawaytokeep10,000AmericantroopsinIraqinsteadofgoingthroughwithacompletewithdrawalin2011,therenewalofsectarianviolenceandtheriseofISISto
fillthesubsequentpowervacuumwouldneverhavehappened.Butthisisextremelyunlikely,giventhatinanearliereraittookcloseto170,000U.S.combattroopsusingextraordinarymeasurestostemasimilartide,
andeventhentheywereabletodosoonlytemporarily.Inanycase,Obamahadnochoiceinthematter.Thestatus-of-forcesagreement(SOFA)thatBushsignedin2008demanded,AlltheUnitedStatesForcesshall
withdrawfromallIraqiterritorynolaterthanDecember31,2011.Obamawas,infact,amenabletokeeping5,000troopsinIraqforthelonghaulandsentemissariestoBaghdadtoseeifanextensioncouldbe
negotiated,butrevisionstotheSOFAincludingaU.S.demandthatAmericantroopsenjoyimmunityfromIraqilaw,requiredparliamentaryapproval,andnofactionsintheIraqiparliament,exceptperhapstheKurds,
wouldvotefortheAmericanstostay.(ObamahasbeenabletosendmilitaryforcesbacktoIraqonlybecausetheSOFAexpiredafterthreeyears.)

AsforAfghanistan,theotherwarthatObamapromisedandtriedtoend,itkeepsragingaswell.InOctober2015,reversinganearlierpolicytowithdrawallU.S.troopsfromthecountrybytheendofhisterm,
Obamaannouncedthat5,500wouldremaintheretocontinuetrainingandequippingAfghanforcesandtoconductcounterterroristoperations.

BAZRATNER/REUTERSU.S.soldiersfireahowitzerartillerypieceinKandaharProvince,Afghanistan,June2011.

ObamaannouncedthischangesoonafterTalibanfighterstookoverthenortherncityofKunduz,buthehadmadethedecisionafewmonthsearlier,accordingtoaseniorcounterterrorismofficial.ThenewAfghan
president,AshrafGhani,hadaskedObamanottowithdrawallU.S.troops,signedabilateralsecurityagreementgivingU.S.forceslegalprotections(anaccordthathispredecessor,HamidKarzai,hadrefusedto
consider),andpromisedreformstobroadeninclusivityandcrackdownoncorruption.Meanwhile,terroristgroupsstillflourishedacrosstheborderwithPakistan.NooneintheNSCopposedsustaininga
counterterroristforceonsomebaseintheregionherewasGhaniofferingthreeexistingbases.AninteragencystudyconductedbyGeneralMartinDempsey,thenthechairmanoftheJointChiefsofStaff,concluded
thatthemissioncouldbesupportedwith5,500troops.Andsothedecisionwasmade.Kunduz(whichAfghansoldiersquicklyrecaptured)wasthenewspegthatpreemptedpoliticalobjections.

ThetragedyofObamaspresidencyisthat,fromthebeginning,hehaswantedtoshiftawayfromthestagnantbattlefieldsinandaroundtheMiddleEastanddevotemoreattentiontotheAsia-Pacificregion,withits
prospectsfordynamicgrowth,trade,and,intheformofChina,anexpansionistpowerthatneedstobeatoncecontainedmilitarilyandluredintotheglobaleconomy.ThisfocusonAsiacametobecalledthepivot,
orrebalancing,butObamahadrecognizeditsappealanddiscusseditasfarbackashis2008presidentialcampaign.Heunderstood,andstilldoes,thatthisiswheretheUnitedStatesfutureinterestsliebutthe
never-endingcrisesoftheancientworldkeeppullinghimbackin.
LIMITEDINTERESTS,LIMITEDRISKS

AstheISISimbrogliowidened,yetanothercrisiserupted,thistimeinUkraine.AfterPutinbribedUkrainianPresidentViktorYanukovychwithanaidpackagetostophimfromsigninganassociationagreementwith
theEuropeanUnion,popularprotestsbrokeoutinKiev.WhenYanukovychcrackeddown,theprotestswidened,andhewasultimatelyforcedtoflee.PutinrespondedbysendingRussianforcestoseizetheCrimean
PeninsulaandsupportasecessionistrebellionineasternUkraine.

InNSCmeetingsheldtodecidehowtorespondtoRussiasmove,Obamaquicklyapprovedascriptofdenunciation,reinforcementsofU.S.militaryexercisesinandaroundeasternEuropesNATOallies(especially
theBalticstates),andastringofeconomicsanctions.

SomePentagonofficialswantedtogofurtherandsupplytheUkrainianarmywithlethaldefensiveweapons,especiallyTOWantitankmissiles.AccordingtoNSCofficials,VicePresidentJoeBidenstronglyendorsed
thisposition,sayingthattheUnitedStateshadamoralobligationtohelptheUkrainiansdefendthemselves,aswellasastrategicinterestinmakingPutinpayforhislandgrabandindeterringhimfromgoingfurther.
(NooneinanyNSCmeeting,however,advocatedsendingUkraineoffensiveweaponsordeployingU.S.troopstothecountry.)

CemOksuz/Pool/REUTERS

ObamatalkswithRussianPresidentVladimirPutinandU.S.NationalSecurityAdviserSusanRiceduringtheG20Leaders'SummitinAntalya,Turkey,November2015.

Intheend,Obamaapprovedtheprovisionofnonlethalmilitaryassistance,suchasnight-visionandradarequipment,andtrainingforUkrainesNationalGuard.Beyondthat,hewasopposed.TheUnitedStateshad
interestsinUkraine,butnotvitalinterests.Therewerereasonstwopreviouspresidentshadconsidered,thendecidedagainst,invitingKievsleaderstojoinNATO.First,pollshadsuggestedthatlessthanhalfof
Ukrainianswantedmembership.Second,RussiasinterestsinUkraine,unliketheUnitedStates,werevital:RussiaandUkrainesharedaborderandalonghistoryoftrade,culturalexchange,andevencommon
statehood.NoRussianleaderwouldstandbyasUkrainedriftedtoofarfromMoscowsorbit.

Obamalikestolookaheadtwoorthreesteps.(Hiscriticshaveseenthisasatechniqueforavoidingtheuseofforceothersseeitasamethodofrationaldecision-making.)Moscowcouldandwouldmatchorsurpass
anylethalweaponsthattheWestsuppliedtoKiev.Thenwhat?IfWashingtonsentstillmorearms,itwouldriskgettingsuckedintoanarmsrace,andtheviolencewouldintensify.IftheUnitedStatesdidnotrespond
inkind,theWestwouldhavelostthecontestObamawouldlookweaker,andRussiastronger,thanifhehadnotsentanyarmsinthefirstplace.

ThiswasObamasfirstprincipleinalldiscussionsaboutthecrisis:hewasnotgoingtoriskawarwithRussiaforthesakeofUkraine.Atonemeeting,hesaid,IfIwantedtoinvadeCanadaorMexico,noonecould
domuchaboutit.ThesamewastrueofPutinandUkraine.

Still,Obamaputahighvalueonenforcinginternationalnorms,oneofwhichwastheinviolabilityofborders.HefeltitnecessarytomakeRussiapayforitsviolationthequestionwashow.Militaryescalation,inthis
context,wasagameRussiawouldwin,butescalationofsanctionswasonetheUnitedStatescouldwin,ifObamacouldkeepEuropeanstatesonboard.Thiswasachallenge,formanyEuropeancountriesweremore
reliantonRussianenergysuppliesthantheUnitedStateswasandthereforemorevulnerabletoeconomicreprisalsfromRussia.TheywerealsodeadsetagainstriskingwaroverUkraine.IfObamawentupthemilitary
ladder,heknewtheywoulddropoutofthesanctionsregime.

Obamaskeenlegalmindallowshimtorationalizehisownporouspositions.

Atleastthroughthefallof2015,Obamaspolicyhasworked.DespitePutinseffortstosplitthetransatlanticalliance,itsmembershaveheldtightonthesanctions,andthecease-firenegotiatedinMinskinFebruary
hasheld,too.PutinslikelygoalinUkrainewastoweakenthecountryscentralgovernmentandkeepitfrommovingclosertotheWest.Atthat,hehassucceeded.IfObamaandthewesternEuropeannationshad
wantedtostrikebackonthatfront,tensofbillionsofdollarsineconomicaidwouldhavemeantalotmorethanafewhundredantitankmissiles.ButbeyondarelativelypaltryInternationalMonetaryFundgrant,no
oneseemedtowanttogodownthatroad.

PATIENCEANDPRAGMATISM

SohowdoesObamasrecordstackup?Thepresidenthasbeenbesiegedbyforeignpolicycrises,constrainedbydiminishedAmericanpower,andpressuredbyopponentsathomeandalliesabroadtotakeactionand
showleadership,evenwhendealingwithintractableproblems.Hehaslearnedonthejob,withhisinstinctsforcautionreinforcedbytheill-fatedLibyanintervention.Andhehas,attimes,talkedmoreboldlythanhe
hasacted,creatinganeedlessgapbetweenwordsanddeeds.

Andyetforthemostpart,hehasstayedtruetothetemplateofhisNobeladdress,keepingsightofthebigpictureasothershavegottenlostintheshrubs.Hiscautionaboutembarkingonunnecessarymilitary
adventuresanddesiretoavoidescalatorymilitaryspiralsseemwise.Obamahasalsoprovedremarkablypatientwithdrawn-outdiplomaticnegotiations,eventhoseunlikelytobearfruit.Someofthese,suchasthe
Israeli-Palestinianpeacetalks,havepredictablygonenowhere,butothers,suchastheopeningtoCubaandthenucleardealwithIran,havebeenstrikinglysuccessful.

Thesuccessesandfailuresstem,inpart,fromthedoggedoptimismofObamassecond-termsecretaryofstate,Kerry.ItisdoubtfulthatKerrysmorecautiouspredecessor,Clinton,ormostotherpastsecretariesof
state,wouldhavestuckwiththenucleartalkswithIranforaslongasKerrydidbutneitherwouldshehavespentsomuchtimeandefforttryingtojump-startamoribundMiddleEastpeaceprocess.

OnedownsidetoKerrysvisionofhisjob,asspecialenvoytotheworldsmosthopelesslogjams,isthatitleavesmuchoftherestoftheworldabitanxious.ThishasbeenespeciallytrueoftheUnitedStatesalliesin
AsiamostofallJapan,whoseleadersdemandconstanthandholding.DuringObamasfirstterm,KurtCampbell,theassistantsecretaryofstateforEastAsianandPacificaffairs,phonedhiscounterpartinTokyo
everydayandmetface-to-facewiththeJapaneseambassadorthreetimesaweek.OfficialswhodealwithAsianaffairssaythatafterCampbellleft,andKerryturnedtheStateDepartmentsfocusalmostexclusively
tohigh-profilepeacemissions,Tokyofeltabandoned.

Still,thishardlyamountedtoacrisis.First,whenBeijingstartedflexingitsnavalmusclesintheSouthChinaSea,Japan(andAustraliaandSouthKorea)clungeverclosertoWashington,howeverfrustrateditfeltat
times.Second,anotherbigpartoftheUnitedStatesrelationswithAsiainvolvessimplyshowingupandalthoughtheassistantsecretarymaynotbecallingasoften,ObamaandKerryshowupatalltheAsian
securityandeconomicsummits.Anxietyaboutabandonmentremainsithasbeenafactorfordecades,atleastsincetheUnitedStatespulledoutofVietnamandsecretlyreachedouttoChinaduringthepresidencyof
RichardNixon.ButObamasmissteps,whichhavebotheredalliesintheMiddleEast,havenotweighedatallonthoseinEastAsia.DanielSneider,theassociatedirectorforresearchattheWalterH.ShorensteinAsia-
PacificResearchCenteratStanfordUniversity,hasmetprivatelywithdozensofpoliticalandmilitaryleadersfromJapanandSouthKorea.Hesays,Iveneverheardanyofthemsayawordabouttheredlinein
Syria.

OnAugust5,2015,thepresidentdeliveredaspiritedspeechatAmericanUniversitydefendingthenucleardealthatheandfiveotherworldpowershadnegotiatedwithIran.Severaltimes,hequotedKennedysfamous
AmericanUniversityspeechin1963callingforanendtotheColdWarmindsetandanewstrategybasedonapracticalandattainablepeace,onebasednotonasuddenrevolutioninhumannaturebutona
gradualevolutioninhumaninstitutionsonaseriesofconcreteactionsandeffectiveagreements.

Laterthatday,Obamaheldanon-the-recordroundtablediscussionwithtencolumnistsintheWhiteHouse.Whenmyturncametoaskaquestion,InotedthatKennedyhaddeliveredhisspeechafterseveralcrisesin
whichherealizedthathisadviserswereoftenwrongandthatheshouldplacemoretrustinhisowninstincts.Whatlessons,IaskedObama,hadhelearnedinhiscrises?Whatdecisionsmighthehavemade
differently,hadheknownthenwhatheknowsnow?Heanswered:

IwouldsaythatIhavebeenconsistentinmybroadviewofhowAmericanpowershouldbedeployedandtheviewthatweunderestimateourpowerwhenwerestrictittojustourmilitarypower....
 Theresnodoubtthat,aftersixandahalfyears,IamthatmuchmoreconfidentintheassessmentsImakeandcanprobablyseearoundthecornersfasterthanIdidwhenIfirstcameintooffice.The
mapisntalwaystheterritory,andyouhavetokindofwalkthroughittogetafeelforit.

IntermsofdecisionsImake,IdothinkthatIhaveabettersenseofhowmilitaryactioncanresultinunintendedconsequences.AndIamconfirmedinmybeliefthatmuchofthetime,wearemaking
judgmentsbasedonpercentages,and...therearealwaysgoingtobesomecomplications.

AndsomaybeatthesametimeasImmoreconfidenttoday,Imalsomorehumble.Andthatspartofthereasonwhy,whenIseeasituationlikethisone[thepossibilityofanucleardealwithIran],
wherewecanachieveanobjectivewithaunifiedworldbehindusandwepreserveourhedgeagainstitsnotworkingout,Ithinkitwouldbefoolisheventragicforustopassuponthatopportunity.

ThisarticlehasbeenupdatedtocorrectthedatethatPresidentObamadeliveredaspeechabouttheIrannucleardealatAmericanUniversity.ItwasAugust5,2015,notApril5.
 From: RobertOtto<robertotto25@gmail.com>
Senttime: 12/31/201510:01:38AM
To: ThomasGraham<tom.graham83@gmail.com>
Subject: Re:HappyNewYear!

http://cddrl.fsi.stanford.edu/publications/getting_russia_right

HistorianswillsomedaywritethatRussiare-enteredtheWesterncommunityofstatesasamarketdemocracyattheendofthe20th
century.Youwouldn'tthinkso,however,fromthevituperativeandpessimistictoneofmostcontemporarycommentaryintheUnitedStates
aboutRussiaandU.S.-Russianrelations.FocusingonluridaccountsofRussianmoneylaundering,cronyism,andwidespreadpolitical
andeconomicdisarray,politiciansandpunditshaveblastedtheClintonadministrationformishandlingacrucialstrategicrelationship
and"losing"Russia.

Youdthinkthatanyonewiththis,um,historywouldbealittlelesscategoricalandabitmorehumbleinhispublicstatements.

Onamuchhappiernote,thanksforsharingthelecturesIwillreadthemovertheweekend.

regards

OnDec31,2015,at10:40AM,ThomasGraham<tom.graham83@gmail.com>wrote:

Heneverstudiedthehistorycloselyandthoughtitdidnotmatteratall.

OnDec31,2015,at9:50AM,RobertOtto<robertotto25@gmail.com>wrote:

ThepeoplewhostudiedRussiaexpresseddoubtsaboutthepathtodemocracyandMikeandhisilk
dubbedthem"pessimists."AshewroteinhisUnfinishedRevolution"ifhistorymatteredallthetime,
therewouldneverbeanychange."(pp24-25)

OnThu,Dec31,2015at9:36AM,ThomasGraham<tom.graham83@gmail.com>wrote:
Sametoyou.

IfwehasstudiedRussiaandnottransitologyperhapswewouldknowmoreaboutRussiatoday.

OnDec31,2015,at7:39AM,RobertOtto<robertotto25@gmail.com>wrote:

http://www.washingtonpost.com/news/powerpost/wp/2015/12/30/lack-of-russia-
experts-has-the-u-s-playing-catch-up/?postshare=1351451515733124&tid=ss_fb-
bottom

Sotheproblem20yearswasnottheanalysisthatRussiawasonapathtoward
democracy,theproblemwastheanalysisthatRussia'sindecline.
 From: JohnBDunlop<jbdunlop@stanford.edu>
Senttime: 12/27/201502:19:05PM
To: martin.dewhirst@gmail.com
Cc: robertotto25@gmail.com
Subject: FW:FSBDefectortoUKCLAIMSGRUINVOLVEDINDOWNINGOFRUSSIANAIRLINERINSINAI

From:WalterZaryckyj[mailto:waz2102@caa.columbia.edu]
Sent:Sunday,December27,20151:46AM
To:StephenBlank
Cc:KTMcFarlandTo:GlenHowardClintonSmullyanJrMatthewBryzaJonChickyWillemdeVogelRobSpringjacobkipp@cs.com
FrederickStarrSENDERSWIMBUSHEerikKrossVladimirSocorJohnBDunlopvvanwilgenburg@gmail.com
Subject:Re:FSBDefectortoUKCLAIMSGRUINVOLVEDINDOWNINGOFRUSSIANAIRLINERINSINAI

----------Forwardedmessage----------
From:WalterDerzko<wderzko@pathcom.com>
Date:Fri,Dec11,2015at10:10AM
Subject:<WesternPresspicksupFSBTerroristdefectorstoryfromUNIANandTCN>

Moscow'sConnectiontotheIslamicState[WashingtonFreeBeacon]
To:1WalterZarycky<waz2102@caa.columbia.edu>,1WolodymyrZarycky
<wzarcusur@gmail.com>,wderzko@pathcom.com,bohdan.rn@gmail.com,azglobal<azgre@azgre.ca>

MoscowsConnectiontotheIslamicState

WidebeliefontheRussianperipherythatMoscowsupportstheextremistgroup

http://freebeacon.com/national-security/moscows-connection-to-the-islamic-state

OnDec.6,aUkrainianTVnetworkairedaninterviewwithamanclaimingtobeaformerRussianFederalSecurityService
agentwhospecializedinterroristorganizationsandcounter-terrorismoperations.Intheinterview,Yevgeniymade
detailedclaimsabouthowtheFSB(asthesecurityserviceiswidelyknown)hasrecruitedforterroristnetworks,andsaid
thatMoscowhasbeendirectlyandindirectlycomplicitinterrorattacksagainstWesternnations.
WashingtonFreeBeacon

----------Forwardedmessage----------
From:WalterDerzko<wderzko@pathcom.com>
Date:Wed,Dec23,2015at12:00AM
Subject:MoreProof>ChechenseparatistleadersaysRussiacontrolsIslamicStateleadersBBCMonitoringFormerSovietUnion
[London]23Nov2015.
To:1WalterZarycky<waz2102@caa.columbia.edu>,1WolodymyrZarycky<wzarcusur@gmail.com>,WalterDerzko
<wderzko@pathcom.com>

ChechenseparatistleadersaysRussiacontrolsIslamicStateleaders

BBCMonitoringFormerSovietUnion[London]23Nov2015.

Theassociateof[formerChechenseparatistleader]DzhokharDudayevandtheformerfieldcommanderclaimsthattheKremlin
wasinvolvedinthecreationofIslamicStateand[RussianPresidentVladimir]Putiniscontrollingit.

ExcerptfromreportbyprivateUkrainianICTVtelevisionon22November

[Presenter]IthasbecomeknownthisweekthatChechensarefightingonthesideofIslamicState[IS].[Pro-MoscowChechen
leader]RamzanKadyrovconfirmedthatalmost500ofhisfightershadjoinedtheterrorists.Henaturallyconsidersthemtraitors.

However,anotherwell-knownChechen,AkhmedZakayev,toldanabsolutelydifferentversiontoFaktyTyzhnya[thisnews
programme].

Theassociateof[formerChechenseparatistleader]DzhokharDudayevandtheformerfieldcommanderclaimsthattheKremlin
wasinvolvedinthecreationofIslamicStateand[RussianPresidentVladimir]Putiniscontrollingit.

LetushearanexcerptfromtheinterviewthatwerecordedinLondon.

[Zakayev]Ihaveanabsolute,100percent,evidencebasethatISiscontrolledbyRussianspecialservicestoday.ThoseareIraqi
militarymenwhoworkedunderSaddam'srule[formerIraqiPresidentSaddamHussein].YouknowtheywerePutin'sandKGB's
allies.

AnothergroupcomesfromtheNorthernCaucasuswhichwassentthereassoonasit,theso-calledIS,startedtobeformed.
TheseparticularsecretagentsexerttheirinfluenceandarecontrolledbytheRussianspecialservices.

IammorethanconfidentthatPutinexpectedsomethingtohappeninParisorsomeotherplace.Thisactionbroughtpoliticalresults
orpoliticaldividendsonlytoonepersonintheworld,Putin,andPutin'sregime.

Ofcourse,itwouldbenaivetothinkthateverythinghappenedbyaccidentthereorwasacoincidence.Inanycase,Iamsurethat
ithappenedunderaplannedscenario.

[Passageomitted:correspondentrepeatstheseallegations]

Credit:ICTVtelevision,Kiev,inUkrainian164522Nov15

Wordcount:277

ICTVtelevision,Kiev,inUkrainian164522Nov15/BBCMonitoring/(c)BBC

----------Forwardedmessage----------
From:WalterDerzko<wderzko@pathcom.com>
Date:2015-12-2111:06GMT-05:00
Subject:Russia'sGoalisNOTtofightterrorism>Original:"
"
To:1WalterZarycky<waz2102@caa.columbia.edu>,1WolodymyrZarycky<wzarcusur@gmail.com>,azglobal
<azgre@azgre.ca>,bohdan.rn@gmail.com,WalterDerzko<wderzko@pathcom.com>

N.B.HattiptoAZTforlocatingthestory--WD

"Russiasgoalisnottofightterrorism"

Maj.AhmedKhalidBirri:"DAEoperatessynchronouslywiththeregime"
16.12.2015

KeremKocalarAnkaraWorld,theheadlinesoftheday

"WearecommittedtobuildingafreeSyria".ThiswasannouncedbytheAAcorrespondent,ChiefoftheSyrianarmyFree(SAS)
Maj.AhmedKhalidBirri.

Firstandforemost,itisnecessarytoestablishtheproposedTurkeysecurityzoneinnorthernSyria.Thisisreducingopportunitiesin
Russiaintheborderzone.Topreventthis,RussiaintensifiedattacksaspartofamilitaryoperationinSyria,"hesaid.

-"DAEoperatessynchronouslywiththeregime"

DespiteclaimsbyRussiathatitleadsthefightagainstDAE,infactallthecontrary,Birrisaid:

"ItisexpectedthatintheEastofHomsandotherpartsofthecountryarethesecond-largestgasdeposits.Thus,theRussianswant
toprotectthemintheirowninterests.Forus,thefactthatDAEisapartneroftheregimeandoperatessynchronouslywithit.

RecentdevelopmentsindicatethattheAssadregimeandRussiaacquireoilfromDAE.Recentlytalkswereinterceptedbetween
DAEandRussiancommanderswhomanageattacks."

"RussiaiscooperatingwithboththeregimeandDAE.Inotherwords,Russiaisnotintendedasaaimstocombatterrorism,"the
Generalstressed.

ORIGINAL

"
"
:""

---------Forwardedmessage----------
From:WalterDerzko<wderzko@pathcom.com>
Date:Fri,Dec11,2015at12:31PM
Subject:FSBDefector'sClaimsaboutMoscow'sTiestoISISConsistentwithOtherEvidence,KirillovaSaysByPaulGoble
To:1WalterZarycky<waz2102@caa.columbia.edu>,1WolodymyrZarycky<wzarcusur@gmail.com>,
wderzko@pathcom.com,bohdan.rn@gmail.com,azglobal<azgre@azgre.ca>
Friday,December11,2015

FSBDefectorsClaimsaboutMoscowsTiestoISISConsistentwithOtherEvidence,KirillovaSays

http://windowoneurasia2.blogspot.ca/2015/12/fsb-defectors-claims-about-moscows-ties.html

PaulGoble

Staunton,December11AnFSBdefectorsaysthatMoscowisverycloselytiedtoISISandhasbeeninvolvedwith
groupsthathavecarriedoutterroristactionsinEurope.Hehastwicepassedapolygraphexamination.Butmanyareskepticalof
hisclaimsbecauseoftheabsenceofsourcesthatdirectlyconfirmhisclaims.

InaNovyRegion-2commentarytoday,KseniyaKirillovaassessesthedefectorsclaimsagainstwhatisknownand
thusprovidesatemplatetoassesshisandothersstatementsaboutsomethingwherealltoooftenanalystsassumethatthe
beneficiariesofanyactionareresponsibleforit(nr2.com.ua/blogs/Ksenija_Kirillova/Rossiyaiterrorizmpodvodyaitogi
113203.html).

Sheexaminesfouraspectsofwhatthedefector,identifiedonlyasYegeny,hassaidandputstheminthecontextof
whatisknownfromothersources.Firstofall,asshepointsout,heisnottheonlyonetosaythattheterroristactionsinParis
workedtoMoscowsbenefit.AndshenotesthatRussianmediabehavioratthetimeprovidessomeevidenceforalink.

ButtheveryfactthatRussiaclearlybenefitedfromthoseattacksdoesnotbyitselfprovethatRussiawasbehindthem,
onlythatitwasskilledinexploitingthemwhentheyhappened.

Second,itisobvioustoalmosteveryonethatRussiaisnotinterestedinavictoryoverISIS.Moscowsforeignpolicy
atpresentisaboutconfrontationwiththeWestingeneralandtheUSinparticular,andbothVladimirPutinandmanyRussian
commentatorshavesuggestedthattheUSandNATOnotISISisRussiasmainenemy.

Ofcourse,Kirillovasays,itispossibletorespondthatRussianpropagandaisdirectedmoreatadomesticthana
foreignaudience,andthereforeitshouldnotbeputforwardasevidence.ButthosewhohaveexaminedRussiasactionsinSyria
showthattheyaredirectedinthefirstinstancenotatdefeatingISISbutratheratweakeningtheUS.

RussiasactionsinfactputitinthepositionofanallyoftheterroristsaspartoftheirstruggleagainsttheWestevenif
betweenthemtheredoesnotexistanydirectsetofagreements,theUS-basedRussiananalystsays.Butthatofcoursereflects
thefactthatthemainproblemsforPutinnowarebeingcreatedbytheWestandnotbyISIS.

Third,shecontinues,RussiareallyhasdefiniteleversofinfluenceonISIS,andtheyweresignaledalreadybeforethe
revelationsofthedefectorYevgeny.ManyISISfighterscomefromRussiaandthepost-Sovietspace.ManyISISleaderswere
trainedinRussiaortheSovietUnion.AndthustheRussianspecialforceshavelargedossiersonthemthatMoscowcanuse.

StanislavBelkovsky,aRussianoppositionpoliticalanalyst,saidthatPutinknewabouttheterroristactsinParisin
advancebecausehehasabroadnetworkofagentsinISIS,anetworkcreatedandexpandedbyformerKGBchiefandRussian
foreignministerYevgenyPrimakov.VladimirMilovofRussiasDemocraticChoicePartyhassaidthesame.


Andfourth,RussianandSovietarmshaveturnedupinISIS.RussianpropagandistssaytheycamefromUkraineor
somewhereelse,buttheleadersoftheLNRandDNRwouldnotbesendingarmstoanyoneelsewithoutthedirectapprovalof
Moscow.ThatrealityclearlysuggestsaMoscowconnection.

Thus,Kirillovaconcludes,ifonesumsuptheseconclusions,itturnsoutthattheycompletelycorrespondwithwhat
YevgenyhassaidregardingthetiesofRussiaandISIS.Indeed,exceptforhisremarksaboutRussianinvolvementintheLondon
terroristincident,Yevgenyhassaidnothingnew.

Thatdoesntmeanthathisclaimsarenecessarilytrueindeed,onemightarguethatheissimplypickinguponwhat
othershavesaidratherthanbeinganoriginalsourcebutattheveryleast,hiswordsandthoseofothersposesomedisturbing
questionswhichMoscowhasntansweredandwhichtheWesthasavestedinterestinfindingoutabout.

Postedbypaulgobleat7:09AM

----------Forwardedmessage----------
From:StephenBlank<traininblank@aol.com>
Date:Sat,Dec26,2015at8:01PM
Subject:Re:FSBDefectortoUKCLAIMSGRUINVOLVEDINDOWNINGOFRUSSIANAIRLINERINSINAI
To:kt@ktmcfarland.com,howard@jamestown.org
Cc:cis@mosbacherproperties.com,matthewbryza@gmail.com,jon.chicky@gmail.com,devogelwillem@gmail.com,
rspring@graciesquarecapital.com,jacobkipp@cs.com,sfstarr@jhu.edu,enderswimbush@mac.com,enkross@gmail.com,
socor@jamestown.org,john.dunlop@stanford.edu,vvanwilgenburg@gmail.com,waz2102@caa.columbia.edu

itwouldnotsurprisemebuthowcanyouverifythisandthiskindofstoryisalwayshighlysuspiciousbecausedefectorswhohave
beenherealongtimearenotalwaysthebestsources

StephenBlank
traininblank@aol.com

-----OriginalMessage-----
From:ktmcfarland<kt@ktmcfarland.com>
To:howardglen<howard@jamestown.org>
Cc:smullyanclint<cis@mosbacherproperties.com>BryzaMatt<matthewbryza@gmail.com>JonChicky<jon.chicky@gmail.com>
WillemdeVogel<devogelwillem@gmail.com>springrob<rspring@graciesquarecapital.com>StephenBlank
<traininblank@aol.com>JacobKipp<jacobkipp@cs.com>Prof.S.FredStarr<sfstarr@jhu.edu>WimbushS.Enders
<enderswimbush@mac.com>EerikKross<enkross@gmail.com>socor<socor@jamestown.org>JohnBDunlop
<john.dunlop@stanford.edu>WladimirvanWilgenburg<vvanwilgenburg@gmail.com>ZaryckyiWalter<waz2102@caa.columbia.edu>
Sent:Sat,Dec26,20157:41pm
Subject:Re:FSBDefectortoUKCLAIMSGRUINVOLVEDINDOWNINGOFRUSSIANAIRLINERINSINAI

iwouldntbesurprisedifPutindidthis,butwhatdotheexperts(i.e.youguys)think?anddoesitreallymatter?

OnDec26,2015,at6:03PM,GlenHoward<howard@jamestown.org>wrote:

 http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3374231/Did-Putin-plant-holiday-jet-bomb-killed-224-Russians-s-
outrageous-theory-ex-KGB-agent-claims-dossier-proves-Kremlin-orchestrated-atrocity-justify-waging-war-
Syria-decide-yourself.html

 From: JohnBDunlop<jbdunlop@stanford.edu>
Senttime: 12/27/201502:19:05PM
To: martin.dewhirst@gmail.com
Cc: robertotto25@gmail.com
Subject: FW:FSBDefectortoUKCLAIMSGRUINVOLVEDINDOWNINGOFRUSSIANAIRLINERINSINAI

From:WalterZaryckyj[mailto:waz2102@caa.columbia.edu]
Sent:Sunday,December27,20151:46AM
To:StephenBlank
Cc:KTMcFarlandTo:GlenHowardClintonSmullyanJrMatthewBryzaJonChickyWillemdeVogelRobSpringjacobkipp@cs.com
FrederickStarrSENDERSWIMBUSHEerikKrossVladimirSocorJohnBDunlopvvanwilgenburg@gmail.com
Subject:Re:FSBDefectortoUKCLAIMSGRUINVOLVEDINDOWNINGOFRUSSIANAIRLINERINSINAI

----------Forwardedmessage----------
From:WalterDerzko<wderzko@pathcom.com>
Date:Fri,Dec11,2015at10:10AM
Subject:<WesternPresspicksupFSBTerroristdefectorstoryfromUNIANandTCN>

Moscow'sConnectiontotheIslamicState[WashingtonFreeBeacon]
To:1WalterZarycky<waz2102@caa.columbia.edu>,1WolodymyrZarycky
<wzarcusur@gmail.com>,wderzko@pathcom.com,bohdan.rn@gmail.com,azglobal<azgre@azgre.ca>

MoscowsConnectiontotheIslamicState

WidebeliefontheRussianperipherythatMoscowsupportstheextremistgroup

http://freebeacon.com/national-security/moscows-connection-to-the-islamic-state

OnDec.6,aUkrainianTVnetworkairedaninterviewwithamanclaimingtobeaformerRussianFederalSecurityService
agentwhospecializedinterroristorganizationsandcounter-terrorismoperations.Intheinterview,Yevgeniymade
detailedclaimsabouthowtheFSB(asthesecurityserviceiswidelyknown)hasrecruitedforterroristnetworks,andsaid
thatMoscowhasbeendirectlyandindirectlycomplicitinterrorattacksagainstWesternnations.
WashingtonFreeBeacon

----------Forwardedmessage----------
From:WalterDerzko<wderzko@pathcom.com>
Date:Wed,Dec23,2015at12:00AM
Subject:MoreProof>ChechenseparatistleadersaysRussiacontrolsIslamicStateleadersBBCMonitoringFormerSovietUnion
[London]23Nov2015.
To:1WalterZarycky<waz2102@caa.columbia.edu>,1WolodymyrZarycky<wzarcusur@gmail.com>,WalterDerzko
<wderzko@pathcom.com>

ChechenseparatistleadersaysRussiacontrolsIslamicStateleaders

BBCMonitoringFormerSovietUnion[London]23Nov2015.

Theassociateof[formerChechenseparatistleader]DzhokharDudayevandtheformerfieldcommanderclaimsthattheKremlin
wasinvolvedinthecreationofIslamicStateand[RussianPresidentVladimir]Putiniscontrollingit.

ExcerptfromreportbyprivateUkrainianICTVtelevisionon22November

[Presenter]IthasbecomeknownthisweekthatChechensarefightingonthesideofIslamicState[IS].[Pro-MoscowChechen
leader]RamzanKadyrovconfirmedthatalmost500ofhisfightershadjoinedtheterrorists.Henaturallyconsidersthemtraitors.

However,anotherwell-knownChechen,AkhmedZakayev,toldanabsolutelydifferentversiontoFaktyTyzhnya[thisnews
programme].

Theassociateof[formerChechenseparatistleader]DzhokharDudayevandtheformerfieldcommanderclaimsthattheKremlin
wasinvolvedinthecreationofIslamicStateand[RussianPresidentVladimir]Putiniscontrollingit.

LetushearanexcerptfromtheinterviewthatwerecordedinLondon.

[Zakayev]Ihaveanabsolute,100percent,evidencebasethatISiscontrolledbyRussianspecialservicestoday.ThoseareIraqi
militarymenwhoworkedunderSaddam'srule[formerIraqiPresidentSaddamHussein].YouknowtheywerePutin'sandKGB's
allies.

AnothergroupcomesfromtheNorthernCaucasuswhichwassentthereassoonasit,theso-calledIS,startedtobeformed.
TheseparticularsecretagentsexerttheirinfluenceandarecontrolledbytheRussianspecialservices.

IammorethanconfidentthatPutinexpectedsomethingtohappeninParisorsomeotherplace.Thisactionbroughtpoliticalresults
orpoliticaldividendsonlytoonepersonintheworld,Putin,andPutin'sregime.

Ofcourse,itwouldbenaivetothinkthateverythinghappenedbyaccidentthereorwasacoincidence.Inanycase,Iamsurethat
ithappenedunderaplannedscenario.

[Passageomitted:correspondentrepeatstheseallegations]

Credit:ICTVtelevision,Kiev,inUkrainian164522Nov15

Wordcount:277

ICTVtelevision,Kiev,inUkrainian164522Nov15/BBCMonitoring/(c)BBC

----------Forwardedmessage----------
From:WalterDerzko<wderzko@pathcom.com>
Date:2015-12-2111:06GMT-05:00
Subject:Russia'sGoalisNOTtofightterrorism>Original:"
"
To:1WalterZarycky<waz2102@caa.columbia.edu>,1WolodymyrZarycky<wzarcusur@gmail.com>,azglobal
<azgre@azgre.ca>,bohdan.rn@gmail.com,WalterDerzko<wderzko@pathcom.com>

N.B.HattiptoAZTforlocatingthestory--WD

"Russiasgoalisnottofightterrorism"

Maj.AhmedKhalidBirri:"DAEoperatessynchronouslywiththeregime"
16.12.2015

KeremKocalarAnkaraWorld,theheadlinesoftheday

"WearecommittedtobuildingafreeSyria".ThiswasannouncedbytheAAcorrespondent,ChiefoftheSyrianarmyFree(SAS)
Maj.AhmedKhalidBirri.

Firstandforemost,itisnecessarytoestablishtheproposedTurkeysecurityzoneinnorthernSyria.Thisisreducingopportunitiesin
Russiaintheborderzone.Topreventthis,RussiaintensifiedattacksaspartofamilitaryoperationinSyria,"hesaid.

-"DAEoperatessynchronouslywiththeregime"

DespiteclaimsbyRussiathatitleadsthefightagainstDAE,infactallthecontrary,Birrisaid:

"ItisexpectedthatintheEastofHomsandotherpartsofthecountryarethesecond-largestgasdeposits.Thus,theRussianswant
toprotectthemintheirowninterests.Forus,thefactthatDAEisapartneroftheregimeandoperatessynchronouslywithit.

RecentdevelopmentsindicatethattheAssadregimeandRussiaacquireoilfromDAE.Recentlytalkswereinterceptedbetween
DAEandRussiancommanderswhomanageattacks."

"RussiaiscooperatingwithboththeregimeandDAE.Inotherwords,Russiaisnotintendedasaaimstocombatterrorism,"the
Generalstressed.

ORIGINAL

"
"
:""

---------Forwardedmessage----------
From:WalterDerzko<wderzko@pathcom.com>
Date:Fri,Dec11,2015at12:31PM
Subject:FSBDefector'sClaimsaboutMoscow'sTiestoISISConsistentwithOtherEvidence,KirillovaSaysByPaulGoble
To:1WalterZarycky<waz2102@caa.columbia.edu>,1WolodymyrZarycky<wzarcusur@gmail.com>,
wderzko@pathcom.com,bohdan.rn@gmail.com,azglobal<azgre@azgre.ca>
Friday,December11,2015

FSBDefectorsClaimsaboutMoscowsTiestoISISConsistentwithOtherEvidence,KirillovaSays

http://windowoneurasia2.blogspot.ca/2015/12/fsb-defectors-claims-about-moscows-ties.html

PaulGoble

Staunton,December11AnFSBdefectorsaysthatMoscowisverycloselytiedtoISISandhasbeeninvolvedwith
groupsthathavecarriedoutterroristactionsinEurope.Hehastwicepassedapolygraphexamination.Butmanyareskepticalof
hisclaimsbecauseoftheabsenceofsourcesthatdirectlyconfirmhisclaims.

InaNovyRegion-2commentarytoday,KseniyaKirillovaassessesthedefectorsclaimsagainstwhatisknownand
thusprovidesatemplatetoassesshisandothersstatementsaboutsomethingwherealltoooftenanalystsassumethatthe
beneficiariesofanyactionareresponsibleforit(nr2.com.ua/blogs/Ksenija_Kirillova/Rossiyaiterrorizmpodvodyaitogi
113203.html).

Sheexaminesfouraspectsofwhatthedefector,identifiedonlyasYegeny,hassaidandputstheminthecontextof
whatisknownfromothersources.Firstofall,asshepointsout,heisnottheonlyonetosaythattheterroristactionsinParis
workedtoMoscowsbenefit.AndshenotesthatRussianmediabehavioratthetimeprovidessomeevidenceforalink.

ButtheveryfactthatRussiaclearlybenefitedfromthoseattacksdoesnotbyitselfprovethatRussiawasbehindthem,
onlythatitwasskilledinexploitingthemwhentheyhappened.

Second,itisobvioustoalmosteveryonethatRussiaisnotinterestedinavictoryoverISIS.Moscowsforeignpolicy
atpresentisaboutconfrontationwiththeWestingeneralandtheUSinparticular,andbothVladimirPutinandmanyRussian
commentatorshavesuggestedthattheUSandNATOnotISISisRussiasmainenemy.

Ofcourse,Kirillovasays,itispossibletorespondthatRussianpropagandaisdirectedmoreatadomesticthana
foreignaudience,andthereforeitshouldnotbeputforwardasevidence.ButthosewhohaveexaminedRussiasactionsinSyria
showthattheyaredirectedinthefirstinstancenotatdefeatingISISbutratheratweakeningtheUS.

RussiasactionsinfactputitinthepositionofanallyoftheterroristsaspartoftheirstruggleagainsttheWestevenif
betweenthemtheredoesnotexistanydirectsetofagreements,theUS-basedRussiananalystsays.Butthatofcoursereflects
thefactthatthemainproblemsforPutinnowarebeingcreatedbytheWestandnotbyISIS.

Third,shecontinues,RussiareallyhasdefiniteleversofinfluenceonISIS,andtheyweresignaledalreadybeforethe
revelationsofthedefectorYevgeny.ManyISISfighterscomefromRussiaandthepost-Sovietspace.ManyISISleaderswere
trainedinRussiaortheSovietUnion.AndthustheRussianspecialforceshavelargedossiersonthemthatMoscowcanuse.

StanislavBelkovsky,aRussianoppositionpoliticalanalyst,saidthatPutinknewabouttheterroristactsinParisin
advancebecausehehasabroadnetworkofagentsinISIS,anetworkcreatedandexpandedbyformerKGBchiefandRussian
foreignministerYevgenyPrimakov.VladimirMilovofRussiasDemocraticChoicePartyhassaidthesame.


Andfourth,RussianandSovietarmshaveturnedupinISIS.RussianpropagandistssaytheycamefromUkraineor
somewhereelse,buttheleadersoftheLNRandDNRwouldnotbesendingarmstoanyoneelsewithoutthedirectapprovalof
Moscow.ThatrealityclearlysuggestsaMoscowconnection.

Thus,Kirillovaconcludes,ifonesumsuptheseconclusions,itturnsoutthattheycompletelycorrespondwithwhat
YevgenyhassaidregardingthetiesofRussiaandISIS.Indeed,exceptforhisremarksaboutRussianinvolvementintheLondon
terroristincident,Yevgenyhassaidnothingnew.

Thatdoesntmeanthathisclaimsarenecessarilytrueindeed,onemightarguethatheissimplypickinguponwhat
othershavesaidratherthanbeinganoriginalsourcebutattheveryleast,hiswordsandthoseofothersposesomedisturbing
questionswhichMoscowhasntansweredandwhichtheWesthasavestedinterestinfindingoutabout.

Postedbypaulgobleat7:09AM

----------Forwardedmessage----------
From:StephenBlank<traininblank@aol.com>
Date:Sat,Dec26,2015at8:01PM
Subject:Re:FSBDefectortoUKCLAIMSGRUINVOLVEDINDOWNINGOFRUSSIANAIRLINERINSINAI
To:kt@ktmcfarland.com,howard@jamestown.org
Cc:cis@mosbacherproperties.com,matthewbryza@gmail.com,jon.chicky@gmail.com,devogelwillem@gmail.com,
rspring@graciesquarecapital.com,jacobkipp@cs.com,sfstarr@jhu.edu,enderswimbush@mac.com,enkross@gmail.com,
socor@jamestown.org,john.dunlop@stanford.edu,vvanwilgenburg@gmail.com,waz2102@caa.columbia.edu

itwouldnotsurprisemebuthowcanyouverifythisandthiskindofstoryisalwayshighlysuspiciousbecausedefectorswhohave
beenherealongtimearenotalwaysthebestsources

StephenBlank
traininblank@aol.com

-----OriginalMessage-----
From:ktmcfarland<kt@ktmcfarland.com>
To:howardglen<howard@jamestown.org>
Cc:smullyanclint<cis@mosbacherproperties.com>BryzaMatt<matthewbryza@gmail.com>JonChicky<jon.chicky@gmail.com>
WillemdeVogel<devogelwillem@gmail.com>springrob<rspring@graciesquarecapital.com>StephenBlank
<traininblank@aol.com>JacobKipp<jacobkipp@cs.com>Prof.S.FredStarr<sfstarr@jhu.edu>WimbushS.Enders
<enderswimbush@mac.com>EerikKross<enkross@gmail.com>socor<socor@jamestown.org>JohnBDunlop
<john.dunlop@stanford.edu>WladimirvanWilgenburg<vvanwilgenburg@gmail.com>ZaryckyiWalter<waz2102@caa.columbia.edu>
Sent:Sat,Dec26,20157:41pm
Subject:Re:FSBDefectortoUKCLAIMSGRUINVOLVEDINDOWNINGOFRUSSIANAIRLINERINSINAI

iwouldntbesurprisedifPutindidthis,butwhatdotheexperts(i.e.youguys)think?anddoesitreallymatter?

OnDec26,2015,at6:03PM,GlenHoward<howard@jamestown.org>wrote:

 http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3374231/Did-Putin-plant-holiday-jet-bomb-killed-224-Russians-s-
outrageous-theory-ex-KGB-agent-claims-dossier-proves-Kremlin-orchestrated-atrocity-justify-waging-war-
Syria-decide-yourself.html

 From: DonaldJensen<donald.jensen8@gmail.com>
Senttime: 12/23/201511:14:00AM
To: RobertOtto<robertotto25@gmail.com>
Subject: Fwd:2015-#249-Johnson'sRussiaList

AsIrecallwehaveneverdiscussedKofman.(No3)

SentfrommyiPhone

Beginforwardedmessage:

From:DavidJohnson<davidjohnson@starpower.net>
Date:December23,2015at12:19:39PMEST
To:donald.jensen8@gmail.com
Subject:2015-#249-Johnson'sRussiaList
Reply-To:davidjohnson@starpower.net

Havingtroubleviewingthisemail?Clickhere

Johnson'sRussiaList
2015#249
23December2015
davidjohnson@starpower.net
AprojectsponsoredthroughtheInstituteforEuropean,Russian,andEurasianStudies(IERES)atThe
GeorgeWashingtonUniversity'sElliottSchoolofInternationalAffairs*
www.ieres.org
JRLhomepage:www.russialist.org
ConstantContactJRLarchive:
http://archive.constantcontact.com/fs053/1102820649387/archive/1102911694293.html
JRLonFacebook:www.facebook.com/russialist
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SupportJRL:http://russialist.org/funding.php
Yoursourcefornewsandanalysissince1996
*SupportforJRLisprovidedinpartbyagrantfromCarnegieCorporationofNewYorkandtheOpenSociety
FoundationstotheGeorgeWashingtonUniversityandbyvoluntarycontributionsfromreaders.Thecontents
donotnecessarilyrepresenttheviewsofIERESortheGeorgeWashingtonUniversity.

"Wedon'tseethingsastheyare,butasweare"

"Don'tbelieveeverythingyouthink"

Youseewhatyouexpecttosee

DJ:Somelightholidayreading.MerryChristmas!

Inthisissue
TODAY
1.AP:WINTERHEATWAVE,OFASORT,ENVELOPSUSUALLYFRIGIDMOSCOW.
.RussiaBeyondtheHeadlines:FyodorLukyanov,Theworldin2015:Anostalgiafor
balance.Theyear2015hasdemonstratedasevereimbalanceintheworldorderandthe
impossibilityofreturningtointeractiongovernedbyoldprinciples.Asglobalplayersstrive
forareturntotheirindividualperceptionofa"goldenage,"FyodorLukyanovconsiders
whichgeopoliticalmodelappearsthemostlikelyinthenearfuture.
3.http://warontherocks.com:MichaelKofman,TheSevenDeadlySinsofRussiaAnalysis.
4.TheUnzReview:IsraelShamir,PutinBlues.
5.Kremlin.ru:FirstRussianInternetEconomyForum.
6.www.rt.com:'14yearsofoccupationbyworld'srichestnation,Afghanistanremains
desperate'
7.TheNationalInterest:MichaelPeck,America'sColdWarMasterPlantoNukeRussia.
Nowforthefirsttime,weknowwhichRussiancitieswouldhavebeendestroyed,andwhy.
8.RussiaBeyondtheHeadlines/RossiyskayaGazeta:Fromliteraryjamtolivereadings:
RecappingtheYearofLiterature.
9.Reuters:Ukrainehealthsystemindangerofcollapseasreformsstall.

#1
AP
December22,2015
WINTERHEATWAVE,OFASORT,ENVELOPSUSUALLYFRIGIDMOSCOW
ByJIMHEINTZ

MOSCOW(AP)-It'susuallythecoldthat'sbitterinMoscowinDecember,butthisyearit's
thehumorthatbitesduringanunusualwarmspell.

Astemperaturesclimbedashighas7degreesCelsius(45degreesFahrenheit)inthe
Russiancapitalinrecentdays,ajokebegancirculatingontheInternet:Thiswasnature's
compensationforRussiansbeingunabletotakevacationsinEgyptandTurkeythisyear-
twotopdestinationsforRussianwinterholidays.

RussiabannedallitsairlinesfromflyingtoEgyptafteroneofitsairlinerswasbombedthere
inOctober,killingall224peopleonboard,andRussianchartertripstoTurkeywere
suspendedfollowingtheNov.24shootingdownofaRussianwarplane.

TheweatherisblamedoncyclonesintheAtlantic,spreadingwarmthandrainovermostof
westernRussia.

Although7Cisn'taheatwavebymoststandards,it'sanunsettlingchangeforacitywhere
temperaturesaverageminus6C(21F)inDecember-andithasbrokenrecordssetin
1936.

Worseyet,itjustseemssoun-Russian.

SomuchsothatatopRussianpoliticianfounditnecessarytopromisethatarealwinteris
ontheway.

"Therenecessarilywillbesnow,Iassureyou.Therewillbesnowonthe30th,"Sergei
Naryshkin,speakerofthelowerhouseoftheRussianparliament,declaredMonday.

"PeoplearetellingmethisisaEuropeanwinter,that'sgood,that'showit'ssupposedtobe.
AndItellthem'No,thisisnotaRussianwinter,'"complainedMariaArbuzova,aretiree
shoppingTuesdayataholidaymarketnearMoscow'sRedSquare.

Moscowisacitythatchoosestoembracewinterratherthanendureit.

Goodskitrailscanbereachedonthesubway,askijumpplungesdownahillattheedgeof
thecitycenterandoutdoorskatingrinksdotthecity.GorkyParkfloodsmanyofits
sidewalkstocreateamazeofskatingpathsandtheVDNKhcomplex,anextravaganzaof
SovietGothicbuildingsandfountains,hoststheworld'slargestrefrigeratedoutdoorrink,a
massive20,000squaremeters(aboutfiveacres).

Thoserinks,andothersinthecity,havebeenclosedsofarthisyear.A100-meter(320-
foot)iceslideerectedneartheKremlinisalsooutofbusiness,itsicelesswoodenstructure
asadreminderofthefunthat'sbeingmissed.

"Theweatherisnotmakingmeveryhappy,"saidamandressedasDedMoroz,the
RussiananalogueofSantaClaus,whogavehisnameonlyasAnton.
ButreliefmaycomebythetimeDedMorozmakeshisgift-givingroundsonNewYear's
Eve.
ForecastersexpecttemperaturesinMoscowtoreturntoaseasonablebelow-freezinglevel
onSaturdayorSunday.

[returntoContents]

#2
RussiaBeyondtheHeadlines
www.rbth.ru
December23,2015
Theworldin2015:Anostalgiaforbalance
Theyear2015hasdemonstratedasevereimbalanceintheworldorderandthe
impossibilityofreturningtointeractiongovernedbyoldprinciples.Asglobalplayersstrive
forareturntotheirindividualperceptionofa"goldenage,"FyodorLukyanovconsiders
whichgeopoliticalmodelappearsthemostlikelyinthenearfuture.
ByFyodorLukyanov
TheauthoristheeditorinchiefoftheRussiainGlobalPoliticsmagazineandheadof
researchattheValdaiInternationalDiscussionClub.

Theyear2015isthefirstinwhichno-oneiscontestingtheobviousanymore:thattheworld
systemisinasevereimbalance,onewhichkeepsgeneratingnewcrises.Manyrealized
thisalongtimeago,butwerereluctanttoadmitit,i.e.togiveupthecozyperceptiondating
backtothelate20thcenturythateverythingisgoingwellandinevitablerelapsescanbe
successfullycontained.

Forexample,Russia'sactionstoincorporateCrimeaandsupporttheanti-Maidan
movementsineasternUkrainewereviewedasonesuchrelapse.Theleadingpowers(in
termsoftheirimpactontheworldorder,i.e.theWest)tried-throughconsolidatedpolitical,
economicandpsychologicalpressure-tomaketheKremlinchangeitsbehaviorandreturn
"totherightsideofhistory."Inotherwords,theyproceededfromthepremisethatthenotion
of"asitshouldbe"exists.

ThepressureonRussiafailedtoproducethedesiredeffect,andthencamethefinal
turningpoint.InthecasewithSyria,no-oneknowsanymorewhatthis"asitshouldbe"is.
TheMiddleEastof2015hascometorepresentdespair:Themoreeffortismade,themore
obviousitisthat,first,sucheffortisineffective,andsecond,thatitisimpossibleinprinciple
torallytheparticipantsinthismulti-layeredconflictaroundasinglegoal.

ISIS:seekingtoresetthegame

Thetrendoftheyearisthehopelessdesiretoreturnto"thegoldenage,"witheachplayer
havingtheirownideaofthis.Themoststrikingexampleis,ofcourse,themain
troublemakeroftheMiddleEastregion,whichisnowcustomarilyreferredtoasDaesh
(knownintheWestasIslamicState,orISIS).Here,everythingisstraightforward:backto
thecaliphate,wheneverythingwasfairandsquaredownwiththeachievementsoftheso-
called"civilization"thatcolonizersforcedonthetruebelievers.

ThecertainpopularitythatradicalIslamistsfromwhatwasoncecalledMesopotamiaenjoy
intheWest,theinterestintheirideasandactionsisasignthatevenoutsideofthe
proposed"caliphate"peoplefeelanemptinessinsideandincreasinglylongforsomething
differentfromwhattheyhavenow.

Havingsaidthat,itisnotonlytheself-proclaimedcaliph,AbuBakral-Baghdadi,theleader
ofISIS,whohankersafteragoldenpast.Thosewhobelongtomainstreamglobalpolitics
lookbackintothepastforinspirationtoo-albeitanot-so-distantpast.

Ayearningforamorestableera

Thememorabledatesoftheyear2015areareminderofhistoricaleventslinkedtothe
establishmentofaparticularworldorder:the200thanniversaryoftheCongressofVienna,
the70thanniversaryoftheendofWorldWarIIandtheestablishmentoftheUN,the40th
anniversaryoftheHelsinkiFinalAct,the25thanniversaryoftheCharterofParisforaNew
Europe.

Uptotheendofthe20thcentury,thenotionofaworldorderwasalwaysaboutbalance.A
complexbalance,involvingnumerousplayers,aswasthecaseinthe19thcentury.Ora
relativelysimplebalance,asafterWorldWarII,whenthereemergedasystemofequal
dominanceoftwosuperpowers.Abalanceinevitablyenvisagedamutualrecognitionof
spheresofinfluenceinoneformoranother.ThatwasthefoundationfortheViennamodel,
theYaltasystem,theHelsinkiFinalAct.

Atfirstglance,itmayseemthatthe1990ParisCharter,whichdeclaredanendtospheres
ofinfluenceanddivisionlines,isbasedonadifferentprinciple.However,inpractice,ittoo
requiredabalance,notforconfrontationbutforrapprochement.Ineffect,thisiswhat
MikhailGorbachevdreamtof:Asfarashewasconcerned,theendoftheColdWarshould
havebeenbasedonaconvergence,anequalandmutualcomingtogetherofpreviously
competingblocs.Thebreak-upoftheSovietUnionshutthedooronthatoption:Russia
wasnotperceivedasasecondcenterinEurope.

Irrespectiveofwhatisbeingdeclaredofficially,anidealforRussiawouldbeareturnto
someformofagreedspheresofinfluence.HencethenostalgiaforViennaandYalta.The
idealfortheWestisthesituationofthe1990s,whenthespheresarenomoreandthe
influencehasbecomeuniversal.HencetheconstantreferencestoHelsinki(omitting,
however,tomentionthatcomponentoftheHelsinkiAccordsthatestablishedtheverysame
spheresofinterest)andParis,whichenvisagesacommonality.

Aproliferationofglobalactors

Neitherofthesenostalgia-inducingmodelscanbebroughtback.Whatmakestoday's
politicsdifferentfromtheeraof"worldorders"ishowuncommonlydemocraticitis.There
aretoomanyofthosewhoareinfluencingtheprocessesnow.

Nowthelistconsistsofnotjustthemajorpowers,asbefore,butalsoofnumerousmid-
rangecountriesseekingtomakeitintotheinternationalpremierleague,interstate
organizationswiththeirbureaucraticinertia,hugecorporations(withcommunications
giantsbeinginaleagueoftheirown),non-stateactors,likenon-governmental
organizations(ISIS,ineffectisoneofthem)andevensomeindividualswhopossess
intellectualpoweroverotherpeople.

Insidestatestoo,decision-makingismademorecomplicatedbythefactthatgovernments
areunabletofullycontrolwhatishappeningontheirterritory:Itisimpossibletofence
oneselfofffromthenumerousinfluencesofaglobalworld.

Clearlydefinedspheresofinterestareoutofthequestion.Thosewhousedtobelongto
theminthepastarenolongerpreparedtoacceptthistypeofrelations,whilethosewho
usedtocontrolthemdonothaveenoughleversofpowertoforceanyone.

Theoutgoingyearhasshownthatthedominanttrendisnottheuniversalityofapyramid-
likeworld,asitseemedinthe1990s,butthefragmentationoftheworldintomore
manageablesegments.Theyoperateaccordingtotheirownratherthanuniversalrules.
TheTrans-PacificPartnershipsetupinOctoberthisyearisaprototypeofthistypeofa
"bloc."AnothercomponentshouldbetheTransatlanticTradeandInvestmentPartnership,
whichU.S.PresidentBarackObamahopestoreachanagreementonbeforetheendofhis
presidentialterm.

Abalanceoftwooceans

Theyear2015hasnotonlybecomeaRubiconmarkingthestartofsomethingnew,ithas
alsoshownthatitisimpossibletobringbackthepast.TheauthorsoftheValdaiClub
annualreport,whichthisyeariscalled"WarandPeaceinthe21stCentury,"areconvinced
that"theriseinchaosandunmanageabilityininternationalrelationscannotlastforever...
mostlikely,wearewitnessingtheemergenceofanewstructureoftheworld,basedon
whatiseffectivelyabalance,albeitloose,oftwolargegroupsofstates."

"Now,aneworderwillnotberebornonthepost-warruinsofthepreviousorderbutwill
gradually'germinate'fromadialecticchaosofrivalryandinterdependence,"readsthe
report.Thisishappeningorganically,irrespectiveofthewillofthemainplayers,whoare
stillcaptivatedbythepast.

Aflexiblebalanceof"thetwooceans"withAmericainthecenterontheoneside,andthe
continentalmassofEurasiawithaclosepartnershipbetweenChinaandRussiaonthe
other,isatfirstglancesomewhatdisconcerting.Itlookstoomuchlikeyetanotherversion
oftheclassicgeopoliticsoftheMahanandMackindervarietyorlikethegrimpredictionsof
GeorgeOrwellwithhisEurasiaandOceania.

Infact,thesearetwocommunitiesthatareunitedbycommoninterestsfromwithinbutare
interdependentandnotconfrontationaltoeachother,atleastnotalways.Thisisthebest
optionthatonecanimaginetoday.Yetanotherversionofan"endofhistory"-inflected
"eternalpeace,"predictably,hasturnedouttobeautopia.

[returntoContents]

#3
http://warontherocks.com
December23,2015
TheSevenDeadlySinsofRussiaAnalysis
ByMichaelKofman
MichaelKofmanisanAnalystattheCNACorporationandaFellowattheWilsonCenter's
KennanInstitute.PreviouslyheservedasProgramManageratNationalDefenseUniversity.
Theviewsexpressedherearehisown.

Astheclockcountsdowntotheendofanothertumultuousanddifficultyearofdealingwith
Russia,thenaturalinstinctistolookbackonthebattlesandsurprisesof2015withaneye
tomakingpredictionsforthecomingyear.Thereismaterialaplenty:thebattleof
Debaltseve,Moscow'soperationsinSyria,acrisiswithTurkeythatstillburnsbright.Anew
yearoffersnewopportunitiesforprognostication:WherewillRussiastrikenext?Whatis
Putinthinking?Whatarethelikelyflashpointsof2016?Insteadofthistraditionalexercise,
Russiaexpertsshouldreflectonayearofdiscussions,briefings,roundtables,merciless
PowerPointdecksabouthybridwar,andoccasionalspatsinthevirtualpagesofoutletslike
WarontheRocks.Whatarethenaggingquestions,questionableassumptions,and
unknownsthatbesettheanalyticalandpolicymakingcommunity?

ExpertsandpolicymakerswhodealwithRussiaarelivinginahigh-tempoenvironment,
keepingpacewithmilitaryinterventions,crises,andthefrequenttwistsinbilateralrelations.
However,inanysuchendeavor,itispossibletolearnlessonsthatarenottrue.Thisismy
ownattemptatpresentingalistofquestionablebitsofanalysisandassumptionsthatexist
withinthecommunity.Indoingso,Ihopetopushpeopletocriticallyexaminehowtheylook
atRussia.Whydowesaysomeofthesethings,andmoreimportantlywhydowethink
them?

1.TheRussianGovernmentisBrittle.Orisit?

PresentingVladimirPutin'sregimeasbrittleisoftenanalyticalshorthandforarguingthathis
regimeisdangerousinthenearterm,butequallylikelytoimplodeinshortorder,with
Russiadescendingintoturmoilandinstability.Indeed,Moscowhasaccumulatedsomany
domesticandforeignpolicyproblemsthatitwouldmakethisalogicalassessmentwereit
notforthepoortrackrecordofsuchpredictions.Witheachnewoutbreakinwhathas
becomeanalmostroutineseriesofpolitical,economic,orforeignpolicycrises,asegment
oftheRussia-watchercommunityinvariablybeginstomakepredictionsofPutin'simminent
demise.Unfortunately,thescienceofpredictingregimechangeseemstolagsignificantly
behindastrology.WeshouldrememberthatfewpredictedtheSovietUnion'srapiddemise,
thestartoftheArabSpring,oranticipatedtherapidfallofVictorYanukovichinUkraine
followingthestartoftheMaidan.

Therearetwoongoingcasestudiesonthemeritofsuchpredictions.ThefirstisPakistan,
acountrythatbythesametheoryshouldhavecollapsedlongagoundertheweightofits
manyproblems.ThesecondisNorthKorea,whichsoldiersondespitedecadesof
predictionsandestimatesoftheregime'simminentimplosion.AsformerSecretaryof
DefenseRobertGatesremarkedonourabilitytopredictthenatureandlocationofthenext
conflict,"ourrecordhasbeenperfect"giventhat"we'veneveroncegottenitright."The
sameshouldbesaidofourabilitytojudgeregimebrittleness.Thepointisnotthatneo-
Kremlinologyorassessmentsofpoliticalstabilityareawasteoftime,butthatthisisa
singlelayerofanalysisthatshouldbetakenwithahealthydoseofskepticism.

UndoubtedlythosewhoregularlypredictPutin'sdownfallwillonedaybevindicated,butfor
planningandanalyticalpurposes,ourexpectationsshouldbetempered.Thenexttestof
politicalbrittlenesscomesin2018whenwewillseehowreadyandwillingtheRussian
publicistoacceptPutin'sautomaticre-election.Nobodyknowswhatthestateofthe
economy,currencyvaluation,foreignexchangereserves,oilprices,orinternationalposition
ofRussiawillbethatyear.

2.TheUnitedStateshasaPutinProblem,notaRussiaProblem.OrDoesit?

Theindividualsinpowermatter,andanotherRussianleadermaynothavechosentoannex
CrimeaorinvadeUkraineinresponsetotheMaidan'svictory.Thatbeingsaid,thelingering
debateonwhethertheUnitedStateshasaPutinproblemoraRussiaproblemisan
unsettledone.IfoneassumesthattherealproblemisPutin'sregime,howeverlongitmight
last,thenthenaturalcourseofactionistoavoidanybargainswithRussia,cauterizethe
damagetothebilateralrelationshipandwaitforanotherleader.Mypersonalviewisthat
whoeversucceedsVladimirPutinwillnotprovetobeallthatdifferent,andwilllikelyfollowa
similarpolicypath.

RussianhistorysuggeststhatPutinisanythingbutanaberrationinleadership,pursuing
securitydilemmasinthesamemannerofmanypreviousoccupantsoftheKremlin.Seeing
Russia'ssecurityspaceasazero-sumgameandsecuringitbylimitingthesovereigntyof
itsneighborsisalmostcanonforRussianforeignpolicy(asitwasforSovietpolicy).We
shouldaskifPutin'sforeignpolicyisfundamentallysodifferentfromthatofBorisYeltsin,
Russia'sfirstdemocraticleader,orifRussiawassimplytooweakduringYeltsin'sruleto
challengethepost-ColdWarsecurityarrangementsinEurope.Inearly2014,Henry
KissingerwarnedWashingtonnottofixateonPutinwhenhewrotethat"FortheWest,the
demonizationofVladimirPutinisnotapolicy,itisanalibifortheabsenceofone."

YeltsintoobelievedintheapplicationofforcetoachievedesiredpoliticalendsinRussiaand
onitsperiphery.ExamplesarefoundamongRussianinterventionsinTransnistriaand
Tajikistanin1992andAbkhaziain1993,theuseoftankstosuppressaconstitutionalcrisis
inMoscow,theFirstChechenWarin1994-96,andtheRussianparatrooperdeploymentto
seizePristinaInternationalAirportin1999aheadofNATO'sdeploymentinKosovo.In
retrospect,thatadministrationwasnotshortonmilitarygambits,complaintsaboutNATO
expansion,orgripeswithU.S.militaryinterventions.ThecharacterofYeltsin'sgovernment
wasquitedifferentfromPutin'sregime,butarguablyitwasunderhisleadershipinthe
1990sthatRussiabeganandendeditsbriefflirtationwithdemocracy.Intruth,wehave
Yeltsin'spresidencytothankforPutin.

Putin'sviewoftheworldmayhaveevolvedduringhisrule,butthereislittleevidencethat
weshouldexpecthissuccessortotraveladifferentpath.Thusfar,thereisnothingto
suggestthatthenextRussianleader,whenfacedwithasimilarinternationalandregional
environmentwillnotattempttoengagetheWest,leavedisappointedandreverttothe
ruthlesspursuitofRussiannationalinterest.Anotherquestionseldomraisediswhether
U.S.policytowardsRussiawouldtrulychangeifitstroublesomeleaderweretodisappear
tomorrow.

3.MoscowCannotKeepThisUp.OrCanit?

CurrentdiscourseonRussia'seconomicfrailtyfoldsintothebroaderdiscussionon
whetherornotMoscowcansustainthecurrentstateofconfrontation.Inotherwords,how
longcanMoscowkeepthisup?TheunderlyingquestioniswhetherRussiawillceasebeing
aprobleminthenear-tomid-termbysuccumbingtoitseconomicwoes.Thenarrativethat
RussiawillrunoutofmoneyisprevalentintheWest,eventhoughMoscow'sforeign
reserveshavebothstabilizedandshownamodestreboundinrecentmonths.Thebigger
questioniswhydowetalkaboutRussiaasthoughitwasabankoracompany?Did
Russiagooutofbusinessafterthe1998default?

WhatistheactualconnectionbetweenWesternsecurityconsiderationsvis-a-visRussia,
itsforeignandnationalsecuritypolicy,andtheamountofmoneyithasonhand?Putin
announcedambitiousmilitaryreformsin2009,whenthepriceofoilfellto$35perbarrel.
RussiainvadedUkraineandannexedCrimeain2014eventhoughtheRussianeconomy
wasclearlyenteringarecessioninlate2013.Lookingfurtherback,Russianspersevered
throughthefinancialdefaultandcurrencycrisisof1998,manygoingthebetterpartofa
yearwithoutsalaries.PutinwasanointedasYeltsin'ssuccessorfollowingthiseconomic
carnage,andintheaftermathlaunchedtheSecondChechenWarin1999,aprolonged
conventionalandcounterinsurgencycampaign.
Thisdiscussionbegsamoreessentialquestionastowhetherornottheeconomyhasever
beenafoundationofRussianpowerintheinternationalsystem.Inapreviousarticlefor
WarontheRocks,IarguedthatRussiahasoftenappearedtobethesickmanofEurope,
technologicallybackwards,withalacklustereconomy,andapoliticalsystemthat
consistentlylagsbehindtheneedsofitssociety.Thatbeingsaid,despiteWesternfearsto
thecontrary,theSovietUnionwasneverasuperpowerbyvirtueofbeingaserious
economiccompetitortotheUnitedStates,letalonetheWest,atbestattaining57percent
ofAmerica'sGNPinthelate1960sbeforefallingbehind.

Today,plentyofseniorU.S.officialsconsiderRussiatobeastrategicthreatandaserious
opponenttoNATOeventhoughitsGDPisbarelyatenthofAmerica's.Inarecentinterview
discussingRussia,DeputyDefenseSecretaryRobertWorkappliedMearsheimer's
definitionofagreatpowertoMoscow,highlightingthereturnofgreatpowerpoliticsinthe
internationalsystem.Granted,hesaidthiswasanarrowlens,butiftheUnitedStates
considersRussiatobeagreatpower(orregionalpowerwithabignucleararsenal)when
itseconomyrepresentsamere3.3percentofglobalGDP,thentheconnectionbetween
economicfundamentalsofpowerandRussia'spositionintheinternationalsystemmerits
furtherdiscussion.

4.RussiaCannotSustainMilitaryOperations.OrCanit?

FollowingcloselythediscussionofeconomicweaknessisageneralsentimentthatRussia
isunabletosustainmilitaryoperationsduetofinancialorforceconstraints.Goingbackto
early2015,thenotionthatRussia'sarmedforcesaretieddownor"stuck"inUkraine
seemstohavedissipated.Themeritofsuchestimateswascastintodoubtwhen,in
Septemberofthisyear,RussiawassimultaneouslysustainingitsdeploymentinUkraine,
conductingtheexpensivestrategicexerciseCenter2015,anddeployinganexpeditionary
operationtoSyria.Itoowaswronginarguingthatlogisticalandfinancialconstraintswould
limitMoscow'sinvolvementinSyriagivenitslackofassetstosustainexpeditionary
operations.

Muchtomyownsurprise,RussiasurgedsealiftbyreflaggingTurkishcommercialshipsto
supportitsincreasingtrooppresenceandbaseexpansions.ForMoscow,necessityisthe
motherofinvention,whereasfortheUnitedStatesitisusuallythemotherofprocurement.
Russiaalsofoundplentyoffundingtotestexpensivelandattackcruisemissilesofalmost
everyvariety.Inarecentpressconference,Putinshowednosignsthateconomic
constraintswouldimpactmilitaryoperations.Instead,itseemsRussiacansustainthisand
allotherlinesofeffortforatleastafewyears.At4.2percentofGDP,or3.3trillionrubles,
Russia'sdefensebudgetisthehighestithasbeensincethecollapseoftheSovietUnion.

Toooftenwetradeinouranalyticalexpertiseforanaccountant'sglasses,asthoughwe
couldcounttheRussianMinistryofDefense'smoneyoritsavailabletroopsbetterthanit
can.Ontheissueofsustainmentofmilitaryoperationsweneedadoseofanalytical
humility.

5.RussiaisStillaPowerinDecline.Orisit?

IfundamentallybelievethatRussiaisapowerinstructuraldecline,butincreasinglyI
wonderabouttherelevanceofthatassessment.Itseemswitheachyearwecaninferless
andlessfromsuchastatement.CelesteWallanderandEugeneRumer,twolongtime
RussiaexpertswhomIholdinthehighestregard,oncewrote:

"Despiteseveralyearsofeconomicgrowthandanewdynamicleader,Russiaremainsa
powerindecline.Neitheritsrecenteconomicsuccessnoritsvigorousleadershipis
sufficienttomakeupforthelong-termlossesthecountryhassufferedortocompensate
forthecontemporaryshortcomingsthatbeliekeyelementsofRussianpower."

TheonlyproblemwiththisremarkablepieceinTheWashingtonQuarterlyisthatitwas
publishedinlate2003.Roughlyadecadelater,PresidentObamasimilarlyopinedthat
Russiaisa"regionalpower"actingoutof"weakness."ManyofRussia'sunderlying
weaknesseswereastruethenastheyarenow,butifRussiaisdeclining,itisdoingsovery
slowly,anditsleadershipdoesnotacceptsuchapredestinedfate.Asimprobableasitmay
be,absentasuddenRussiancollapse,atsomepointwemaybeforcedtoadmitthat
Russiaisdecliningsoslowlythecountrymightjustbemuddlingthrough.
6.DemographyWillDetermineRussia'sFate.OrWillit?

Russia'sdemographicproblemsarecommonlyreferencedasoneofthedriversofits
supposedlyassuredstructuraldecline.Analystsoftenmentiondemographytoeitherblithely
supportthenotionthatRussiawillsimplyceasetobeaproblemfortheWestinthelong
term,orworriedlyspeculatethatthecountrywillbecomedangerouslyunstable.Butwhat
mightRussia'sdemographicstrulydetermine?WillRussiasomehowbelessofastrategic
threatoraconcernfortheUnitedStatesifithasasmallerpopulation?Itisalmostcertain
thatRussiawillhaveenoughmanpowertomaintain1,550strategicnuclearweapons,
alongwithaconventionalforcetoovermatchanyofitsneighbors,saveChina.Perhaps
counterintuitively,intheshortterm,Russia'sarmedforceshavesteadilyincreasedinsize
fromroughly667,000-700,000in2012to900,000today.

Whenconsideringlong-termalternativefuturesitisworthnotingthatRussia'seconomy
andnationalbudgetisinexorablydependentonenergyandresourceextraction.Theseare
industriesthatarenotlabor-intensive.Atthesametime,Russiaisthebeneficiaryofalarge
laborinfluxfromformerSovietRepublics,oftenmakingitthethird-orsecond-highest
recipientofmigrantsintheworld.CanRussianationalizesuchlaboratthecostofinternal
socialcohesion?Howmuchwillitsgovernmentbudgettrulysufferfollowingalaborforce
contraction?Isitevenfairtoassumethatwarfareorsimilarstatetaskswillremain
manpower-intensive30yearsfromnow?AreRussia'sdemographicproblems
fundamentallydifferentfromthoseofotherdevelopedstates,includingmanyU.S.allies?It
strikesmethatRussia'sdemographicdeclineismoreofanopen-endedquestionthana
definitivestatementonthefutureofthecountry.

7.ForPutin,It'sAllAboutRegimeSurvival.Orisit?

Moscow'sannexationofCrimea,invasionofUkraine,andlaunchofoperationsinSyriaare
sometimesexplainedasthethroesofafallingpoliticalsystemengagedina"survival
project."Theunderlyingtheoryunifyingtheseactionsisregimesurvival,brilliantly
advocatedbyLiliaShevtsovainanumberofarticlesandop-eds.Theproblemwiththis
approachisthatregimesurvivalcircularlyexplainseverythingandabsolutelynothingatthe
sametime:Thereisnopoliticalregimeonearththatisnotinterestedinitssurvival.Regime
survivalisaconstantmotivationformany,ifnotall,politicalsystemsandpoliticians.Itisso
fungibleananalyticalapproachthatitlendsitselfusefultoexplaininganyandallpolicy
choicesbyPutin.

Atitscore,thisargumentarbitrarilytakesthedomesticpoliticaloutcomesofMoscow's
actions,suchashighapprovalratingsathome,oraresurgentsenseofnationalism,and
movesthembackintimetobecometheprimaryobjectivesofforeignandnationalsecurity
policy.Thatcouldbetrue,butitseemsimpossibletoproveordisprove.Regimesurvival
maynotbeanincorrectexplanationofMoscow'smotives,butitiscertainlyincompleteas
ananalysisoftherealsourcesofRussiandecision-making.

RussiaAnalysisinPerspective

InmyownnarrowlaneofRussianmilitaryanalysis,thereisalwaysroomforamore
balanced,informed,andnuancedunderstandingofRussia.Perhapsthegreatestwoeof
discussionsonRussianmilitary,strategy,anddecision-making(otherthandebateson
hybridwarfare)istheconstantseesawbetweentwoextremes.Toooften,weareengaged
inanasininedebateastowhetherRussia'smilitaryisfivefeettallor12feettall.
Assessmentstendtotrackmorecloselywithwhereonesitsinthepolicymakingornational
securityestablishment,versuswheretheRussianmilitaryactuallyis,andwhatitcando.
HereIbelievethestartingpointshouldalwaysbeBismarck'sobservationthat"Russiais
neverasstrongasshelooksnorasweakasshelooks."Whenitcomestodecision-
makinganalysis,Putinisregularlycastinstarktermsaseitherabrilliantstrategist,
outfoxingtheWestateveryturn,orcompletelyincompetentwithoutanynotionofwhathe
willdonext.

PerchancethebroadestandmostvexingquestionforU.S.decision-makersandexperts
todayisthis:HowdowedeterRussia?Itisasvagueasitisrecurrent.Theshortansweris
thattheUnitedStatesdoesdeterRussia,whichiswhywe'reallstillhere70yearsafter
nuclearweaponswerefirstused.Amoreanalyticallyinteresting-andpoliticallyvaluable-
questionwouldbehowtheUnitedStatesshouldmanagegreat-powercompetitioninthe
internationalsystemandkeepconfrontationwithRussiafromescalatingintowar.Ifcrises
areinevitableamongthemajorplayers,anditseemstheyare,thenmanagingescalation
dynamicsisparamount.Whenfacedwithaproblem,bureaucracieshaveapredilectionfor
pursuingactivityandconfusingitforachievement,toparaphraseFareedZakaria.Tobetter
structureapolicyorastrategytowardsRussiaweshouldconfrontourownunderlying
assumptionsandthemeritsofprevailingnarratives,andmorerigorouslyseektofillexisting
gapsinanalysis.

[returntoContents]

#4
TheUnzReview
www.unz.com
December23,2015
PutinBlues
ByIsraelShamir

HeavydarknessbefallstheNorththesunrarelyemergesfrombetweentheclouds.This
year,Russiahasnoticeablylessstreetillumination,andthespiritsareanythingbutfestive.
OnlythewhitenessofthesnowandChristmastreesbreakthegloomandremindusofthe
forthcominglowpointofthecosmicwheel,Yuletide,whendaysstartstowaxandnightsto
wane.AsthisstellareventforetellstheNativityofourSavior,thisisaperiodofhopeaftera
verydifficultyear,allovertheworld.

Putinsupportersareunhappy

TheRussianskeepguessingwhatPresidentPutinwilltelltheminhistraditionaltelevised
addresstothenationatthebreakoftheNewYear.Heshouldsay,thisyearisover,andwe
shallallcheer,peoplepropose.Eventhemostoptimisticonesaredisappointedby
lacklustreeconomicperformance,andtheyblamethegovernmentofPrimeMinister
Medvedevandhisliberalmonetaristteam.MeanwhilePutinrisesabovetheblamegame,
butthegovernmentislessandlesspopular.

-AstheRoubledrops,eventheratherpro-Kremlinmass-circulationnewspaperKP(full
disclosure:IwriteanoccasionalcolumnfortheKP)publishedacallfortheeconomyand
financeministerstoresignortobefired.ThereisaverylittlechancethatMrPutinwilltake
thisadviceandcleanhisgovernmentstables.

-Hecouldbeefuphiscreditbydumpingsome(orall)ofhisministers,butPutinisstubborn
andunusuallyloyaltohiscolleagues.Noaccusationhaseverconvincedhimtodismissa
manofhisteam.HisformerdefenceministerMrSerdyukovhasallegedlybeeninvolvedin
someshadydealing,whileSerdyukov'sparamourandassistantamassedmillionsby
sellingprimeMODassetstohercronies.Still,Putindidnotdumphim,andsavedhimfrom
jail.(HehadtoresigntobecomeaCEO,whilesheservedafewweeksinprison,atmost).

-Lastweek,theoppositionleaderMrNavalnyairedsomeheavychargesagainstAttorney
GeneralChayka.Forhisdefence,Chaykasaidthatthemanbehindthecampaignisthe
notoriousMrBrowder.BrowderisanAmericancrookwhomanagedtoappropriatemany
high-qualityRussianassetsforpenniesduringYeltsin'sprivatisation.Eventuallyhewas
forcedtopartwithhislootandhehasbeensentencedtomanyyearsofjailinabsentia.
Browderisslime,nodoubt,butitisaweakdefenceforChayka.Still,Putinrefusedtodrop
Chaykaoreventoinitiateanindependentinvestigationofhisallegedcrimes.

-PutinstandsbythemosthatedpoliticianofYeltsin'sera,MrAnatolyChubays.The
FinancialTimescalledhimFathertotheOligarchs.Afterleavingthegovernment,Chubays
hasbeenappointedtoleadtheRUSNANO,astate-ownedcorporationnotoriousforits
embezzlementandwaste.Putinsavedhimmanytimesoverfromprosecution.

-Putinwent,hatinhand,toYekaterinburgforthegrandopeningofBorisYeltsin'sMemorial
Centre(pricetag-ninebillionroubles)andreferredkindlytotheloathedlatePresidentwho
appointedhimhissuccessor.Peoplewerefuriousseeingtheirpresidentenjoyinghimself
amongthecarpetbaggersofYeltsin'sregime.

-CanyouimagineFoxTVtransmittingRussianpropaganda?InRussia,amajorchunkof
Russianmedia,state-ownedorsubsidisedbythetaxpayer,transmitspro-Westernand
anti-Russianagenda,allegedtheeminentfilmdirectorNikitaMichalkov,astaunch
supporterofPutin,inhisvideoseenbyovertwomillionviewersinafewdays.Hecalled
uponPutintoasserthislineandbanishtheenemieswithin,butstateTVrefusedto
broadcastthevideo.

-Putin'srecentpress-conferenceprovidedachanceformorecriticism.Besidethepoints
mentionedabove,thejournalistsaskedwhystateenterpriseCEOsarepaidmillionsof
dollarsayear,whileeverybodyelseiscalledupontotightenthebelt.Theyaskedwhythe
RussianCentralBankkeepsbuyingUSbondsandsupportstheUSDollarattheexpense
oftheRouble.Theyaskedwhyimportsubstitutiondoesnotworketc.

Theseareprotestsfromthepro-Putincrowd,frompeoplewhosupportedhistakeoverof
CrimeaandhisentryintoSyrianwar.Theycouldbearsomedeprivation,buttheyareupset
byPutin'scondoningthieves,byhisapparentcronyism,byhisoligarchfriends.Untilnow,
thecriticsavoidedattackingPutin,butthesearetheearlyswallows.DrStepanSulakshin,
theheadofaMoscowthinktank,publiclyaccusedPutinofknowinglyleadingRussiainto
furtherdegradation.

ThisbubblingdissatisfactionofPutin'ssupportersmayyetturnmoredangerousforthe
presidentthanthe2011Frondeofhishipsterenemies.Meanwhile,head-strongMrPutin
doesnotwishtoyieldground,sacrificesomeofmorehatedministersandCEOs,orattune
internalpoliciestopublicexpectations.Perhapsheisright,andthingsarenotwhatthey
appear,butjusticemustbeseen,notonlydone.

TalkingTurkeywithIsrael

TheTurkishfrictioncausedbyErdogan'sdecisiontoshootdowntheRussianbomberis
anothersourceofPutin'sblues.HehadspentalotofeffortnurturingrelationswithTurkey.
Allthiseffortwentdownthedrain.Therearemultimillionprojects,fromagaspipelineto
tourism.Allthatwascutdownatonce.Putin'splanstodelivergastoEuropebypassingthe
hostileUkrainecollapsed.ThisisahugesetbackfortheRussianpresident.

Therhetoricbetweentheleadersbecameacrimonious.HotheadsinRussiaspeakof
seizingtheBosporusandDardanelles,ofturningIstanbulintoConstantinopleandplanting
thecrossontheancientStSophiachurch.TheTurkishpresidentthreatenedtooccupy
Russiawithinoneweek-withhelpofNATO.

Turkey'schoiceisaresultofitsover-involvementinSyria.Withsomuchinvestment,
ErdoganwasloathtoseeSyriagone.WhilehisdecisiontodowntheRussianjetwas
ratherextreme,therelationsalreadyweretense.

Putin'striptoErevanandhiscondemnationof"TurkishgenocideoftheArmeniansin1915"
wasanunnecessaryprovocation.Nootherworldleaderdidit,butFrancoisHollandeof
FrancewhoflewinfortwohoursandproceededtoBaku,thecapitalofAzeriTurksthus
levellingtheplayingfield.IactuallycalleduponPutintoavoidthisstep,butthestrong
Armenianlobbyinsistedonthistrip.

Afterwards,therewasasupposedleak(inreality:afake)ofaharshandinsulting
conversationbetweenPutinandtheTurkishambassador.IcheckedwiththeAmbassador
andothersides.Itwasafake,butthisfakehasbeenspreadinmillionsofsitesandposts.

However,the$64,000questionisaboutSyria:willitbecomeavassalstatetothe
reconstitutedOttomansorwillitremainasovereignstatewithstrongtiestoRussia.
RussiathoughtithasastrongerhandasaninviteeoftheSyrianlegitimategovernment
TurkeydeniedBashar'slegitimacy.

TheriftbetweenTurkeyandRussiabecameafact.ItsmainbeneficiariesweretheUS-
andIsrael.Forthelastfiveyears,therelationsbetweenIsraelandTurkeywerehostile,
sinceIsraelicommandosmassacredninepeaceactivistsonboardtheTurkishvesselNavi
Marmara.InfaceoftheRussianthreat,theTurksagreedtomakepeacewithIsrael.

Israelisinvolvedintheconflictmorethanitadmits.TheRussianshaspublishedtheir
evidenceofDaeshoilbeingsmuggledtoTurkeybyTurkishcompanies.Thiscausedalotof
indignationinRussiaandelsewhere.Howdotheydaretobuystolenoilandfinancethe
terrorists!

TheRussiansforgottomentionthatthesmuggledoilgoestoIsrael.Israelisthemain
buyerofoilproducedbytheKurdsandbyDaesh.Thiswasreportedandcorroboratedby
theFTandbyAlArabyalJadeed.TheRussianmediaavoidedthetopic,asPutincherishes
hisgoodrelationswithNetanyahu.

Lastweek,IsraelisattackedsuburbsofDamascusandkilledsomeRussianallies,
Hezbollahfighters.Again,Russianstookitquietly.Noneofindignationcausedbydowning
ofthebomberseepedintotheRussianmedia.

Israelsupportsal-Nusra,declaredaterroristorganisationbytheUN.Thisisnotasecret:
recentlytheDailyMailpublishedareportglorifyingIsraelisoldierssavinglivesofthe
Islamistfighters.ThousandsofwoundedguerrillasreceivedmedicalassistanceinIsraeli
hospitalsandwentbacktofightBashar.

IsraelhasagoodworkingrelationswithDaesh,too.IwastoldthatDaeshtroopsentered
thePalestiniancampalYarmukbeingequippedwithlonglistsofPalestinianactivists.They
wereassembledandpubliclyexecuted.ThePalestiniansthinkthatDaeshreceivedthe
namesfromIsraelisecretserviceandactedupontheirrequest.Moreover,Daeshnever
everattackedaZionisttarget.

Putin-andRussianmediadidnotsayawordonthat.PerhapsPutinisrightRussiadoes
notneedsuchastrongenemyasIsrael,sinceIsraelileaderscansay"Jump,UncleSam,"
andUncleSamwillask"Howhigh?"However,theycouldtonedowntheirindignation
regardingTurkishoilsmuggling,TurkishhelptotheguerrillasandotherTurkishmisdeeds.

Israelisobjectivelyanenemy:itisanenemyofRussia'salliesHezbollahandIranitwants
dismembermentofSyriainordertokeepGolanHeightsforgooditprefersaSomalised
Syriatoahealthyandstrongone.ButNetanyahuplayshishandcautiouslydespitehis
feelingofinvulnerability.

TheIsraeliattackontheDamascussuburbstookplacedespitetheRussianC-400
operatinginSyria.ExpertssaytheC-400hasbeenplacedinLatakiaanditcan'teffectively
protecttheskiesabovetheSyriancapital,whiletheC-300purchasedbytheSyriansand
locatedinDamascushasbeenhitbyIsraelis.Meanwhile,theIsraeliAirForceistrainingat
avoidingandcopingwithaC-300inCyprus,asthatcountryhasaC-300ofitsown,
recentlyboughtfromtheRussians.

PutinhasnothingtogainfromconfrontationwithIsraelIsraelpreferstohaveitsway
withoutfightingtheRussians.Perhaps,soonerorlater,theIsraeliandRussianAirForces
willjoustbutmeanwhilebothsidesprefertopostponethatmoment.

PutinhopesErdoganwillgiveuponSyria.Thisisnotaneasytask,butnotanimpossible
one,either.Forthat,PutinmustworkwithPresidentObama-orwiththenextAmerican
President.

PutinvsWesternLeaders

ItisoftensaidthatPresidentObamaisaweakleader.Idonotthinkso.Heisawilyand
sophisticatedplayer.HevoidseveryagreementhiscountrymadewithRussia.Therewere,
andareagreementsgalore:fromMinsktotherecentUNSCresolutions.Atfirst(and
second)sight,theagreementsfollowtheRussianline.Otherwise,theRussianswouldnot
signthem.However,afterawhileObamaoffersadifferentinterpretation.Iwouldnotliketo
argueagainsthiminacourtoflaw.Heisastrickyasanylawyer.

Didhegiveuponthe"Assadmustgo"mantra?Itisnotclear.He,andhisSecretaryof
StateJohnKerrysometimessaythathemaystay,butquicklycontradictthemselvesand
insistonhisdeparture.Theyintroducenewandpeculiarideasdaily.Forexample,theysay
"OnlySunnismaydealwiththeSyriancrisis".ThisstrangeideainspiredtheSaudisand
theyevenclaimedtheyorganisedahugecoalitionofSunnistatestofightDaesh.Needless
tosay,withinafewdaysthis"coalition"vanishedlikedewundersunrays.

However,atthebottomline,ObamaplaysbyaColdWarscriptagainstRussia.Likea
drunkardaccusesothersofheavydrinking,heaccusedMittRomneyof"ColdWar
thinking",andwarnedPutinofhis"ColdWarthinking",butasadiscipleofZbigniew
Brzezinskihehardlycanthinkofanythingelse.EvenPentagongeneralscomplainedabout
thismatrixofhismind,saysSeymourHersh.

ThereisnothingPutinwantslessthananewroundoftheColdWar.HeisnotanewSoviet
leader.PeoplewhodreamofanewStalinarebarkingupawrongtree.Onemayregretit,
andmanyRussiansdoregretit,butPutinhasnogreatplansofsocialrearrangement.His
ambitionismoremodest:hewantsRussiatobeindependent,prosperous,great,and
equaltoothergreatnationslikeitwasin19thcentury.

LastweekIwasattheStPetersburgCulturalForum,agatheringofartists,curators,and
artministersfrom40countries,anditwasclearthatPutin'sRussiaismuchmore
interestedinitspre-revolutionarypastandinthe19thcenturyingeneral,thanin20thor
21stcenturyart.TheyperformedalostplaybyPuccini,theyreconstructedPetipaballets,
theyreadTolstoy.Theyrebuiltpalaces,theyfixedoldtheatres,eventhepre-revolutionary
circushadbeenreturnedtoitsoldgloryinclusiveofitsoldwell-forgottennameandthe
royalcircle.SomanyrestaurantsbearnamesremindingeveryoneoftheTsartimes.

ThereisawindofnostalgiainRussia,anditisforRussiaofLeoTolstoyandTchaikovsky.
PutinhasorderedthattheremainsoftheWhitegenerals,philosophers,artistsbebrought
backforburialontheRussiansoil.SovietandCommunistmemoriesaresuppressed.
Recently,PrimeMinisterMedvedevcalledforanotherboutofcommemorationsforStalin's
victims.Iamnotsurethatthisisawisepolicyperhapsitwouldbebettertoletpasttotake
careofitself.Buthereweare:Putinandhiscrowdareold-styleliberals,notsocial
reformers.Theydonotwanttoraisethebannerofrevolt.Theywanttofitintotheworldasit
is,butasequals.

Theproblemis,therearepeoplewhoarehell-bentonhegemonyandfull-spectrum
dominance,andtheyarenotlikelytoallowRussiatogoitsownway.Theywanttoimpose
theirrules,andsetinplacetheirdocilerulers.That'swhytheverymodestintentionsof
PutinmeetsomuchresistanceinNATOandthePentagon,intheWhiteHouseandin
Westminster.What'sworse,thesepeoplealreadycontrolthemainstreampoliticsofmany
countries,fromtheUStoJapan,toFranceandSweden.Itdoesnotmatterwhichofthe
mainstreampoliticianswinelections,theresultisthesame.

Putin's(andRussia's)hopelaysinpoliticiansoutsidethecontrolledmainstream.Donald
Trumpisagoodexample.PutinisnotparticularlyinterestedinUSinternalpoliticsandinMr
Trump'sunusualproposals.ThisisaninternalmatteroftheUS,andPutinsteersclearofit,
likehewantstheUStosteerclearofRussia'sinternalmatters.Forhim,whatisimportant,
isthatTrump'sAmericawouldnottrytodominatetheworldandimposeitsagenda.The
moralquestionwhetherTrump'sideasaboutMuslimsorLatinosareloftyorbaseisa
questionfortheAmericanpeopletodecide.Putinandmanyotherforeignleaderswant
America'snon-interferenceintheirinternalaffairs.

TherudeMr.Trumpseemstobethecandidateleastlikelytopushthebuttonfornuclear
suicideofmankind.MuchlesslikelythanniceMrsClintonwhocouldnukeRussiabecause
Russiansdonotcelebrategaymarriages.Remember,hernicehusbandbombedBelgrade
becausethenastySerbsdidnotallowforthesecessionofCroats(orwasitAlbanians?)

Trump-oranystraightforwarddecentpoliticianwhodoesnottakeordersfromtheMasters
ofDiscourse-wouldbeabletoplayballwithMrPutin,byclassicalrulesofinternational
law.TrumpandPutincouldreturntheconceptofsovereigntytoitsprivilegedposition.This
wouldendmanywars.ThewarinSyriabeganwhenMrObamaandMrHollandesaid
"Assadmustgo".Bytheclassicalrules,nostatemayinterfereintheaffairsofanother
sovereignstate.FromtheRussianpointofview,thewarinSyriaisfirstofallawarfor
sovereigntyandagainstglobalImperialvassaldom.

TheRussianswanttolighttheirChristmastreesandwishMerryChristmasandgowith
theirwomenandchildrentoaChristianchurchwithoutbeingscoldedbytheObamasand
ClintonsofthisworldforinsufficientpoliticalcorrectnessandfailuretomentionKwanzaa.

That'swhyitisimportantforallofusifwemayhopetoreachpeace,thisChristmasorthe
nextone.

[returntoContents]

#5
Kremlin.ru
December22,2015
FirstRussianInternetEconomyForum

VladimirPutinattendedtheFirstRussianInternetEconomyForum.
TheFirstRussianInternetEconomyForumistakingplaceinMoscowonDecember21-22.
Theplenarysession,attendedbyrepresentativesofthenationalITindustryandrelevant
ministriesandagencies,isdedicatedtoinitiativesforthelong-termdevelopment
programmeoftheRussianInternetsegmentandbranchesoftheeconomyusinginternet
technologies.

Priortotheplenarysession,thePresidentattendedanexhibitionofinnovativeprojects,
wherewasshown,inparticular,developmentsinbanktechnologies,cyber-protectionfor
industrialfacilitiesandthosedirectedatenhancingtheaccessibilityofpublicservicesfor
thepublic.

VladimirPutinalsohadaconversationwithForumparticipants.

PresidentofRussiaVladimirPutin:Goodafternoon,friends.

Togetherwithyourboard,wehavejusthadadetaileddiscussionoftheissuesyou
consideredyesterdayregardingspecificbranchesoftheeconomy.Ifounditinteresting.I
hopewehavemanagedtoagreeoncertainmatters.IcanseemyaideIgorShchegolev
here,theformerMinisterandnowmyPresidentialAide.Weagreedthatifourcolleagues
decidetodoso,thenwewillbehappytohandovertheresponsibilityforeverythingyou
agreedonandproposedasnecessaryforjointeffortstopromoteyourinitiativestooneof
yourcolleagues,whomIinvitedtoworkatthePresidentialExecutiveOfficewithMr
Shchegolev.ThiswillallowustopromoteyourideaswithinthePresidentialExecutive
Officeaswell,andalsowithintheexecutivebodiesintheGovernmentandtheregionsof
theRussianFederation,whichisnolessimportant.

Generally,inthepastyearstheInternethascertainlybecomepartofourdailylives.
Moreover,ithasbecomeaseparateindustrypracticallyallovertheworld,andyouspoke
aboutthisyesterday.Russiaiskeepingabreastofthings,ofcourse.Imaybesayingvery
generalthingsnotintendedforthisaudience,maybeforthosewhoarestandingtherewith
thecameras,sothatpeopleinthiscountrywillfindoutmoreaboutthis:Russiahasthe
largestnumberofInternetusers-inexcessof80millionpeople,with62millionofthem
goingonlineonadailybasis.Asoneoftheboardmemberssaid,peoplelookattheir
phonesabout300timesadaytoseewhatisgoingonintheworld,orineverydaylife,
thingsthatinterestpeoplewhousetheInternet.

ThenumberofcommercialInternetusersisalsogrowingrapidly.TheInternetmarket
accountsfor16percentoftheGDP.Remoteaccesstechnologiesareextensivelyusedto
providepublicandmunicipalservices,whichIamveryhappytosay,becausejustrecently
wewereonlybeginninghere.Generally,therehasbeengoodprogress.Intheprevious
year,morethanathirdofallpublicandmunicipalservicesbecameavailableonline.

ThesignificanceandinfluenceoftheInternetareconstantlygrowing.Weneedtousethe
Internetasadriverofmodernisationfortheentirecountry(thisisanundisputedfactand
nobodyhasanydoubtaboutit,andwearereadytohelpandsupportyouinyour
endeavours)toraisethequalityoflife,tocreateanewtechnologicalbasisforthenational
economyand,ofcourse,forthesocialspheres-educationandhealthcare.

TheInternetInitiativesDevelopmentFundhasbecomeoneoftheinstrumentsavailablefor
resolvingthesetasks.Wesetituptwoyearsagoanditseemstobedoingwell.Italready
has6billionrublesatitsdisposal.Overthe2.5yearsofitswork,theFundhasaddedover
170projectstoitsportfoliodesignedtoresolvespecificissuesfacingbothindividualsand
businesses.

Wedefinitelyneedtodevelopastrategyforthelong-termdevelopmentoftheRussian
Internet,takingintoconsiderationtheoveralldevelopmenttendenciesoftheworldwide
web.Ifullyagreewithyouthat,bearinginmindtheoveralltendenciesandwithgreat
respectforourpartnersandcompetition,wemustcreatecommonlivingandworking
conditionsforallonthismarket.Nobody,primarilyournationalparticipants,shouldbeputin
asituationthatwouldmakeyoulesscompetitive.Ifullyagreewiththosewhoreferredtothe
decisionswearemakingintherealeconomy,inindustryandagriculture,saying:wedo
offercertainbenefitstoRussianmarketplayers,tonationalproducers,sowhynotdothe
samehere.Iagree:wearereadytoconsiderthisanddosomething,provided,ofcourse,
thatitdoesnotviolateourWTOcommitments.Iamcertainwecanfindappropriate
solutions.
Iwouldliketowishyousuccess.Thankyouverymuch.

[returntoContents]

#6
www.rt.com
December22,2015
'14yearsofoccupationbyworld'srichestnation,Afghanistanremainsdesperate'

Outsideforcescannotdictatewhatacountry'sgoverningsystemisgoingtolooklike,but
that'swhat'shappeninginAfghanistan,saysMedeaBenjamin,cofounderofleft-wingNGO
CodePinktoldRT.

TwoattackstookplaceinAfghanistanonMonday.Threerocketshitthediplomaticareain
Kabulsomewayfromthecenterofthecity.Thathappenedafteramotorbikesuicide
bombercarriedoutanattackontheBagramairbasekillingsixUStroops.

Meanwhile,theTalibanisaggressivelypushingbackintoHelmandprovince.Themilitants
aresaidtobeclosetooverrunningthekeycityofSangin.

USSecretaryofStateJohnKerryhasdescribeddevelopmentsinAfghanistanaspositive.
However,AmericanpoliticalactivistMedeaBenjamindoesn'tagreecallingitaridiculous
statement.

"TheUShasspentprobablyatrilliondollarsinAfghanistananditremainsoneofthe
poorestcountriesintheworldoneoftheworstplacesforwomentohavechildrenoneof
theworstratesofilliteracyamongwomen,"shetoldRT.

TheUSinvadedAfghanistanin2001afterthe9/11attackscarriedoutonUSsoil,and
accordingtoBenjamin,"itiscertainlynotacountrythatafter14yearsofbeingoccupiedby
therichestcountryintheworldhasmuchtospeakforitintermsofdevelopment."

IslamicState(IS,formerlyISIS/ISIL)isnowfightingtheTalibanwhichcouldmakethings
evenworsefortheAfghanpeople.

ActivistarguesthatitisterriblethatafteralloftheseyearsandthebillionsofdollarstheUS
hasputintotraininglocalAfghanforcestheyarestillnotabletocontroltheirowncountry.

"Ithinkitisareflectionofthefactthatoutsideforcescomingincannotdictatewhata
country'sgoverningsystemisgoingtolooklike,"saidBenjamin.

Shesuggeststherehasalwaysbeenaneedforapoliticalsolutiontotheproblemsin
AfghanistanandtheUSshouldputitsmoneyintodevelopingthecountryinsteadofthe
military.

Speculatingonpossiblesolutions,theactivistsaidtherehavebeenconstantattemptsat
talkwiththeTaliban.However,shebelievesthattheyneedtogetseriousaboutthat.

"JohnKerryshouldputsomeofhisdiplomaticenergiesintofindingapoliticalsolutionthatis
goingtounfortunatelyhavetoincludetheTalibanaspartofatransition.TheTalibanare
localpeopleandtheycan'tbewishedaway,"BenjamintoldRT.

"ButIthinktheremaining10,000UStroopsarenotgoingtobeenoughtodictatetothe
Afghangovernmentwhatitspolicyshouldbe,"shecontinued.

Benjaminsaidthatithastobeapoliticalsolutionandallenergyandresourcesshouldbe
putintothatgoal.

'ObamaadministrationwantstopushSEALabusesinAfghanistanundertherug'

Meanwhile,aNewYorkTimesreporthasaccusedtheUSNavyofcoveringuptheabuseof
AfghandetaineeswhichtookplaceinMay2012.
TheNavalCriminalInvestigativeServicelaunchedaninvestigationintoacasewhere
tortureresultedinthedeathofamandetainedbyUSNavySEALS.Despiteeyewitness
accountsagainsttheUSservicemen,thenavyprobedismissedthecharges,claimingthe
evidencedidn'tsupporttheallegedmisconduct.

CriminaldefenseattorneyandformerCIAofficerJackRicespeakingaboutdetaineeabuse
saidthatinacaselikethisthereshouldnothavebeenaminimalinvestigation.

"Thisshouldhavebeenafull-blowncriminalinvestigation,whichisfarmoreseriousonthe
militaryside,"hetoldRT.

Headdedthatiftheywantedtotakethistotheextreme,theycouldhavebeenchargedin
FederalCourt,whichisaciviliancourtintheUS.

"Baseduponthefactthattherewasadeathinthiscaseitshouldhavenotbeen
investigatedasitwas,"Ricesaid.

Ricearguesthattheinvestigationcouldbereopened"basedupontheseriousnessofthe
caseandthefactthatessentiallyitwasdismissed."

"Itisdisturbingthattheyseemtomakeadecisiontotreatthisasinconsequentiallyasthey
havereallybaseduponthedeathofoneofthedetainees,"hecontinued.

TheSEAL'scommandersaidtheevidenceprovidedinthereportwasinconsistent.

Ricesaiditwaspossiblethereareinconsistenciesinthereport."Butthatinitselfitdoesn't
meanthatyoushouldn'tgoforwardwithaninvestigation,"headded.

AccordingtoRice,heregularlyencountersreportsthathaveinconsistencieswithinthem.

"Thatdoesn'tstoptheinvestigation,thatdoesn'tstoptheprosecutionjustbecausesome
thingsdon'tcompletelyaddupdoesnotmeanyoushouldnotcontinuetodigitdoesn't
meanthatyoushouldnotpotentiallyevenchargesomebodywithseriouscriminal
offenses,"headded.

TheformerCIAofficerconsiderstheUSgovernmentistryingtoburytheinvestigationitself.

"Thefactthatwhattheydidwasdivertthistoaminimalinvestigationandtothekindof
investigationandprocessforinconsequentialevents,ratherthansomethingfarmore
seriousreallytellsmethattheyaresortoftryingtopushitaway,totrytoputitunderthe
rug."

In2009PresidentObamasaidhedidn'tthink2000picturesoftortureshouldbereleased
becausethiswouldendangerUStroopsabroad.RicearguesthatPresidentObama
decidedhewasnotgoingtoreleasetheAbuGhraibphotos.

"Whenhewasrunningforofficehepromisedhewantedtransparencyandhewantedthe
Americanpeopleandtheworldtoseethephotosthemselves,"hetoldRT.

Inconclusionhesaidthat"thelikelihoodofsuccessinreopeningthisisnotverycertainat
thispoint."

"Myexpectationisitwillnotbereopened,"Ricepredicted.

[returntoContents]

#7
TheNationalInterest
December23,2015
America'sColdWarMasterPlantoNukeRussia
Nowforthefirsttime,weknowwhichRussiancitieswouldhavebeendestroyed,andwhy.
ByMichaelPeck
MichaelPeck,afrequentcontributortotheNationalInterest,isadefenseandhistorical
writerbasedinOregon.HisworkhasappearedinForeignPolicy,WarIsBoringandmany
otherfinepublications.
IftheColdWarhadturnedthermonuclear,weknowthattheUnitedStatesandSovietUnion
wouldhavebeendevastated.

Butnowforthefirsttime,weknowwhichRussiancitieswouldhavebeendestroyed,and
why.TheU.S.governmenthasfinallydeclassifiedthe1950sStrategicAirCommandtarget
list,whichwouldhavedispatchedAmericanbombersandmissilesonnuclearstrikes
acrosstheCommunistworld.

"SAClistedover1200citiesintheSovietbloc,fromEastGermanytoChina,alsowith
prioritiesestablished,"accordingtotheNationalSecurityArchive,thenon-governmental
organizationwhichrequestedthedeclassifiedinformation."MoscowandLeningradwere
priorityoneandtworespectively.Moscowincluded179DesignatedGroundZeros(DGZs)
whileLeningradhad145,including'population'targets."
[http://nsarchive.gwu.edu/nukevault/ebb538-Cold-War-Nuclear-Target-List-Declassified-
First-Ever/]

Butatleastintheory,thiswouldnothavebeenwantondestructionorterrorbombing.There
wassupposedtobemethodbehindthenuclearmadness.SAC'sprioritywastodestroy
SovietairpowerbeforeSovietbombers-thiswasbeforeICBMsweredevelopedinthe
1960s-couldstrikeAmericanandWesternEuropeantargets.Some1,100airfieldswere
targetedandprioritized,withtheSovietTu-16BadgerbomberbasesinBykhovandOrsha
inByelorussiaatthetopofthelist.OnceSovietairwarcapabilityhadbeendestroyed,and
assumingbothsideswereinanystatetocontinuethewar,thenSovietindustrywouldhave
beenbombednext.

Andsowouldalotofinnocents.TheSACtargetlist,compiledin1956andpublishedas
partofa1959nuclearweaponsplanningstudy,deliberatelyincludedcivilianpopulations.

TheSACplanspecified"the'systematicdestruction'ofSovietblocurban-industrialtargets
thatspecificallyandexplicitlytargeted'population'inallcities,includingBeijing,Moscow,
Leningrad,EastBerlin,andWarsaw,"notedNationalSecurityArchiveresearchers.
"Purposefullytargetingcivilianpopulationsassuchdirectlyconflictedwiththeinternational
normsoftheday,whichprohibitedattacksonpeopleperse(asopposedtomilitary
installationswithciviliansnearby)."

Mostofthe800pagesofdocumentsconsistoflistsoftargetsandtheirassociated
alphanumerictargetnumbers.SACplannersassumedin1959theycouldstrikewith2,130
B-52andB-47bombers,RB-47reconnaissanceaircraft,andF-101fighterescorts.In
addition,therewouldbe376nuclear-tippedcruiseandbomber-launchedmissiles,aswell
asearlyintermediate-rangemissiles.The1959studyalsostatesthatmissiles-thiswas
beforeICBMsweredevelopedinthe1960s-hadsuchalowchanceofdestroyingtheir
targetsthatmannedbomberswouldbetheprimaryweapons.

BecauseSACwassofixedonquicklyknockingoutSovietairpower,H-bombswouldhave
beendroppedtoexplodeonthegroundratherthaninmid-air.Whileairburstswouldhave
producedmoreheatandradiation,thefocusonwasachievingmaximumblastdamageto
destroySovietaircraftandbases,despitesomeunintendedsideeffects."Whilethe
objectionstosurfaceburstandtheprobabilityofradioactivefalloutaffectingfriendlyforces
andpeoplehavebeenconsidered,therequirementtowintheAirPowerBattleis
paramounttoallotherconsiderations,"saidtheSACstudy.

However,SACdefinedtheSovietairpowerinfrastructurequitebroadly,toincludeany
commandandindustrialcentersthatcouldsupportaRussianaircampaign.ThusMoscow
waslistedashavingnumerousmilitarycommandcenters,aircraftandmissilefactories,
atomicweaponslaboratoriesandoilrefineries.

DespitebeingaNuclearAgeforce,SAC'sstrategymoreresembledtheU.S.bomber
offensiveagainstGermanyandJapaninWorldWarIIthantwenty-firstcenturywarfare.
ConcentratingontheSovietairforceanditsinfrastructurewouldhavebeenfamiliargoals
toB-17andB-29commanders(whichwereindeedthepeoplewhoranSACinthe1950s,
includingCurtisLemay).Thoughitalsoseemsaquaintlylong-warstrategy,asifthe
Sovietswerereallygoingtocapableofmass-producingbombersandnuclearweapons
aftertheinitialnuclearexchange.Thebeliefthatmissilesweretoounreliable,andonly
mannedbomberscouldbetrusted,soundsmuchlikethedronevs.mannedaircraftdebate
today.
DidSAC'stargetingstrategymakesense?Thebetterquestionis,whocares?Fortunately
forthehumanrace,weneverhadachancetofindout.

[returntoContents]

#8
RussiaBeyondtheHeadlines/RossiyskayaGazeta
www.rbth.ru
December23,2015
Fromliteraryjamtolivereadings:RecappingtheYearofLiterature
TheYearofLiteratureofferedmuchtoenjoyforwriters,bloggersandsweetloversalike.
RBTHhascollectedallthemostinterestingfactsandfiguresfromthisliterary
extravaganza.
ANASTASIASKORONDAEVA,ROSSIYSKAYAGAZETA

TheceremonyofpassingthebatonfromtheYearofLiteraturetotheYearofCinemawas
heldinSt.PetersburgonDec.14.Alltheattentiononliteraturethisyearhasthrownup
someinterestingstatistics.

1)Thewinnerofanarratingcompetitionheldduringthefestivalbookmarkettookhome55
poundsoffruitandvegetables.Duringthefirstweekendoffall,shelvesfilledwithbooks
wereinterspersedwiththeusualonesholdingproduceatMoscow'sDanilovskyfoodcourt
andmarket.Surprisedshopperswereabletotakehomegoodliteraturealongwiththeir
normalpurchases.

2)Continuingtheculinarytheme,120litersof"literaryjam"wascookedaroundRussia.
ThestaffofRossiyskayaGazetafoundoldrecipesandmadejamoutdoorsinwriters'
estatesfortheentiresummer.TheymadetheplumdessertfromAnnaKareninain
Tolstoy'sYasnayaPolyanaestateinTulaRegionandusedlocalapplesfromSergei
Yesenin'snativevillageofKonstantinovoinRyazanRegiontomakeajamcelebratinghis
birthday.Readmore>>>

3)InDecember,1300peopletook60hourstoreadLeoTolstoy'sWarandPeaceinalive
broadcast.ThreemonthsbeforeNatashaRostovaandAndreiBolkonskytookthestage,
anotherlivereadingproject,ChekhovAlivebyGoogle,sawthegreatplaywright's
charactersbroadcastovertheinternetfor24hoursstraight.

4)FromJune25-28,RedSquarehosteditsfirsteverbookfair,atwhichmorethan500,000
booksfrom300publishinghousesacross50regionsofRussiawerepresented.FromSt.
Basil'sCathedraltotheStateHistoricalMuseumthesquarehosteddiscussions,alibrary,a
writer'sofficeandevenachildren'splayground.Morethan200,000peopleattendedthe
writers'seminars,concertsandtheatricalperformancesthatformedpartoftheyear's
biggestliteraryevent.Readmore>>>

5)Literaturealsocaughtthepublicimaginationawayfromthebig-namefestivals,markets
andawards.SergeiNifashev,astreetcleanerandbloggerfromBlagoveshchensk,
collectedmorethan100rareeditionsinhisbasement,findingallofthemamongthecity's
trash!Whenhewentthroughthebookshefoundoldmoneyandphotos.Ararefindindeed,
andnotonewerecommendtryingtorepeat-therecouldbeallkindsofnastybugslurking
amongthetrash.

AnabridgedversionofthearticlefirstpublishedinRussianbyRossiyskayaGazeta:
http://www.rg.ru/2015/12/14/goda.html

[returntoContents]

#9
Reuters
December23,2015
Ukrainehealthsystemindangerofcollapseasreformsstall
STAIKY,UKRAINE|BYALESSANDRAPRENTICE

PaintisflakingonthedampwallsandcrackedceilingsofthesmallhospitalintheUkrainian
villageofStaikyandmuchoftheequipmentisover30yearsold.
Runninghotwaterisnotguaranteedandthehospital,servingabout2,800peopleinStaiky
andothervillages,hasnotbeenrefurbishedsinceSoviettimes.

Thereisalsolittlehopeofachangeforthebetteramongmedicalstaffwhorelyon
charitabledonations,oftenfromlocalbusinessmen,tobuyevenbasicmedicinesandthe
petrolneededtovisitpatientsinremoteareas.

AreformdrivelaunchedbytheWestern-leaninggovernmentinstalledafterapro-Moscow
president,ViktorYanukovich,wasoverthrowninapopularuprisinglastyearhasbecome
miredinbureaucraticinertia,argumentsandallegationsofcorruption.

"Idon'tknowwhoiswritingandcarryingoutreformsatthetoporiftheyhaveeverbeentoa
villageandseenhowpeopleliveandwithwhatmedicalservices,"saidfamilydoctorNadiya
MartynenkoinStaiky,aclusterofdilapidatedone-storyhousesontheRiverDnieper,an
hour'sdrivefromthecapitalKiev.

Shesaidstatefundscoveronlytheelectricityandmeagerstaffsalaries,andthatoverthe
pastdecade"they'vecuteverythingtheycouldandevenwhattheyshouldn't...it'svery
precarious."

Staikyisfarfromunique.Soviet-erahospitalsacrossthecountryof42millionare
crumbling,underpaymentofmedicalstaffcontinuestofosterasystemofbribe-takingand
Ukraine'spoorvaccinationratehasplaceditonablacklistalongsidesomeoftheworld's
poorestcountries,includingSouthSudan.

CorruptionhasplaguedUkrainesincethecountrygainedindependencefromtheSoviet
Unionin1991.ButunderYanukovich,itbecamemuchworse.

HealthMinisterAlexanderKvitashvili,oneofseveralforeignersappointedtoministerial
positionsinthehopethattheiroutsiderstatusandinternationalexperiencewouldhelp
Ukrainemakegoodonreformpromises,hopedtorecreatesuccessfulreformscarriedout
inhisnativeGeorgia.

Ayearafterhisappointment,thehealthbilloutliningreformsisstuckinparliament.

"It'sfrustrating.Therearevestedinterests-they'reeverywhere...Workingwiththe
parliamentwedifferonwhatabasicunderstandingofreformis,"KvitashvilitoldReuters.

Withoutacompletereboot,"financiallythesystemwillcollapseinaboutayear,ifnotfaster,
becausethereisnowayUkrainecanincreasespendingtoasustainablelevel,"hesaid.

DEMOCRACYSTRUGGLING

ThestalledhealthbillisoneofmanyexamplesoftheslowprogressUkraineismakingin
reformingitseconomy,promptingWesternbackerstoquestionKiev'scommitmentto
endingcrookedpracticesthatpushedthecountrytothebrinkofbankruptcy.

Squabblesinparliamenthaveheldupotherbills.Someofthesearerequiredforthe
disbursementoffundsundera$40-billioninternationalbailoutprogram,andKiev'sWestern
backerswarnthatitsattempttorebuilditselfontransparent,democraticlinesisunder
threat.

Ukraine'sprogresshasalsobeenhamperedbyaconflictintheeastofthecountrybetween
governmentforcesandpro-Russianseparatistsandadeteriorationinrelationswith
Russia,whichannexedtheCrimearegionin2014.

Thehealthministry'sreformswerefinalisedinAprilandbroughttoparliamentforapproval
inJulybutdiscussionshavedraggedon,Kvitashvilisaid.Ashedidso,heturnedoffhis
cellphone,itsringtonesettothethemetunefromTVseriesGameofThrones,inwhich
rivalclansbattleforinfluence.

Partoftheplanfocusesonseparatingtheprocurementanddeliveryofhealthservices,a
systemwhichuntilnowhasallowedmostcontractstobebrokeredinbackroomdealswith
littleexternaloversight.
AccordingtoareportbytheAnticorruptionActionCenter,aUkrainiancivilsociety
organization,onlysixoutof6,500authorizedpharmaceuticalcompaniestookpartinthe
procurementofHIVdrugsinUkrainein2013,sharingamongthemselvesamarketworth
$30.9million.

Thesalariesofdoctorsaretoolowtoeradicatetheuseofbribesbetweenpatientand
practitioner,whichmeansmanyofthehealthindustry'sfinancialdealingsaredoneinthe
shadows.

"YoucanseeheaddoctorsdrivingPorschesandhavingVertuphones,butthehospitalsare
inanabysmalcondition,"Kvitashvilisaid.

The"informal"partofthehealthcareeconomyamountstoabout$7billionperyear-more
thantriplethesizeofthestate'sannualexpenditureonhealth,heestimated.

FrustrationoverthelackofprogresspromptedKvitashvilitotenderhisresignationinthe
summer,onlytohaveitrejectedbyparliament.

Somecommentatorshavesaidhelackstheknow-howtonavigatethewebofallegiances
thatcontinuestobindUkraine'srulingclassdespiteavowedattemptstomoveonfromthe
politicalcronyismofthepast.

"Ibelievehewantsreforms,buthedoesn'ttotallyunderstandtherealityofUkraine-thatif
someonepromisestheirsupportitdoesn'tmeantheywon'ttryandtripyouup,"doctorand
healthcarecommentatorEvgenyKomarovskysaid

AlexandraUstinova,fromtheAnticorruptionActionCenter,alsosaidtherewasaconflictof
interestsinsomeoftheappointmentsattheministry,suchasbringinginalawyerwho
usedtoworkforapharmaceuticalcompanyownedbyamemberofparliamentfrom
PresidentPetroPoroshenko'sparty.

"CATASTROPHE"

GiovannaBarberis,theUkrainerepresentativeoftheUnitedNationsInternationalChildren's
EmergencyFund(UNICEF),said"theobstacles(toreforms)arehugeandsometimesit
looksprettygrimbecausethepaceisextremelyslow."

ThestartofanimmunizationcampaignfollowinganoutbreakofpolioonSept.1was
delayedbyseveralweeks,promptingEllynOgden,worldwidepoliocoordinatorforthe
UnitedStatesAgencyforInternationalDevelopment(USAID),tocriticizethe"highestlevels
ofgovernment"foraninadequateresponse.

Shesaid"noothercountryintheworldisinsuchadiresituationorshowssuchdisregard
forprotectingchildrenagainstchildhooddiseases."

TheGlobalPolioEradicationInitiative,whichisspearheadedbytheWorldHealth
Organization,said:"Forsometime,Ukrainehasbeenacatastrophewaitingtohappen."

Ukrainedidnotbuydrugs,medicinesorvaccinesformostofthisyearasthehealth
ministrysoughttoapproveatemporaryprocurementsystemviainternationalorganizations
tobypassthecompromisedsystemthatKvitashvilihopestoreform.

ThetemporarysystemwasfinalisedinlateOctober,andUkraineplanstobuyaround$100
millionofvaccinesandmedicines,butsevereshortagesremain.

"Therearenoanti-diphtheriavaccinesinthecountry,"healthcarecommentator
Komarovskysaid.

MeanwhilethemoredrasticreformbillislanguishinginparliamentandKvitashvilisayshis
resignationisstillonthetable.

"Wellmyletterisstillthere.Ididnotwithdrawit.WewillseehowtheParliamentwillact,"
hesaidbyemail.

[returntoContents]
Forwardemail

Thisemailwassenttodonald.jensen8@gmail.combydavidjohnson@starpower.net|
RapidremovalwithSafeUnsubscribe|Aboutourserviceprovider.

Johnson'sRussiaList|6368CircleDrive|Chincoteague|VA|23336
 From: DonaldJensen<donald.jensen8@gmail.com>
Senttime: 12/23/201511:14:00AM
To: RobertOtto<robertotto25@gmail.com>
Subject: Fwd:2015-#249-Johnson'sRussiaList

AsIrecallwehaveneverdiscussedKofman.(No3)

SentfrommyiPhone

Beginforwardedmessage:

From:DavidJohnson<davidjohnson@starpower.net>
Date:December23,2015at12:19:39PMEST
To:donald.jensen8@gmail.com
Subject:2015-#249-Johnson'sRussiaList
Reply-To:davidjohnson@starpower.net

Havingtroubleviewingthisemail?Clickhere

Johnson'sRussiaList
2015#249
23December2015
davidjohnson@starpower.net
AprojectsponsoredthroughtheInstituteforEuropean,Russian,andEurasianStudies(IERES)atThe
GeorgeWashingtonUniversity'sElliottSchoolofInternationalAffairs*
www.ieres.org
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http://archive.constantcontact.com/fs053/1102820649387/archive/1102911694293.html
JRLonFacebook:www.facebook.com/russialist
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SupportJRL:http://russialist.org/funding.php
Yoursourcefornewsandanalysissince1996
*SupportforJRLisprovidedinpartbyagrantfromCarnegieCorporationofNewYorkandtheOpenSociety
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donotnecessarilyrepresenttheviewsofIERESortheGeorgeWashingtonUniversity.

"Wedon'tseethingsastheyare,butasweare"

"Don'tbelieveeverythingyouthink"

Youseewhatyouexpecttosee

DJ:Somelightholidayreading.MerryChristmas!

Inthisissue
TODAY
1.AP:WINTERHEATWAVE,OFASORT,ENVELOPSUSUALLYFRIGIDMOSCOW.
.RussiaBeyondtheHeadlines:FyodorLukyanov,Theworldin2015:Anostalgiafor
balance.Theyear2015hasdemonstratedasevereimbalanceintheworldorderandthe
impossibilityofreturningtointeractiongovernedbyoldprinciples.Asglobalplayersstrive
forareturntotheirindividualperceptionofa"goldenage,"FyodorLukyanovconsiders
whichgeopoliticalmodelappearsthemostlikelyinthenearfuture.
3.http://warontherocks.com:MichaelKofman,TheSevenDeadlySinsofRussiaAnalysis.
4.TheUnzReview:IsraelShamir,PutinBlues.
5.Kremlin.ru:FirstRussianInternetEconomyForum.
6.www.rt.com:'14yearsofoccupationbyworld'srichestnation,Afghanistanremains
desperate'
7.TheNationalInterest:MichaelPeck,America'sColdWarMasterPlantoNukeRussia.
Nowforthefirsttime,weknowwhichRussiancitieswouldhavebeendestroyed,andwhy.
8.RussiaBeyondtheHeadlines/RossiyskayaGazeta:Fromliteraryjamtolivereadings:
RecappingtheYearofLiterature.
9.Reuters:Ukrainehealthsystemindangerofcollapseasreformsstall.

#1
AP
December22,2015
WINTERHEATWAVE,OFASORT,ENVELOPSUSUALLYFRIGIDMOSCOW
ByJIMHEINTZ

MOSCOW(AP)-It'susuallythecoldthat'sbitterinMoscowinDecember,butthisyearit's
thehumorthatbitesduringanunusualwarmspell.

Astemperaturesclimbedashighas7degreesCelsius(45degreesFahrenheit)inthe
Russiancapitalinrecentdays,ajokebegancirculatingontheInternet:Thiswasnature's
compensationforRussiansbeingunabletotakevacationsinEgyptandTurkeythisyear-
twotopdestinationsforRussianwinterholidays.

RussiabannedallitsairlinesfromflyingtoEgyptafteroneofitsairlinerswasbombedthere
inOctober,killingall224peopleonboard,andRussianchartertripstoTurkeywere
suspendedfollowingtheNov.24shootingdownofaRussianwarplane.

TheweatherisblamedoncyclonesintheAtlantic,spreadingwarmthandrainovermostof
westernRussia.

Although7Cisn'taheatwavebymoststandards,it'sanunsettlingchangeforacitywhere
temperaturesaverageminus6C(21F)inDecember-andithasbrokenrecordssetin
1936.

Worseyet,itjustseemssoun-Russian.

SomuchsothatatopRussianpoliticianfounditnecessarytopromisethatarealwinteris
ontheway.

"Therenecessarilywillbesnow,Iassureyou.Therewillbesnowonthe30th,"Sergei
Naryshkin,speakerofthelowerhouseoftheRussianparliament,declaredMonday.

"PeoplearetellingmethisisaEuropeanwinter,that'sgood,that'showit'ssupposedtobe.
AndItellthem'No,thisisnotaRussianwinter,'"complainedMariaArbuzova,aretiree
shoppingTuesdayataholidaymarketnearMoscow'sRedSquare.

Moscowisacitythatchoosestoembracewinterratherthanendureit.

Goodskitrailscanbereachedonthesubway,askijumpplungesdownahillattheedgeof
thecitycenterandoutdoorskatingrinksdotthecity.GorkyParkfloodsmanyofits
sidewalkstocreateamazeofskatingpathsandtheVDNKhcomplex,anextravaganzaof
SovietGothicbuildingsandfountains,hoststheworld'slargestrefrigeratedoutdoorrink,a
massive20,000squaremeters(aboutfiveacres).

Thoserinks,andothersinthecity,havebeenclosedsofarthisyear.A100-meter(320-
foot)iceslideerectedneartheKremlinisalsooutofbusiness,itsicelesswoodenstructure
asadreminderofthefunthat'sbeingmissed.

"Theweatherisnotmakingmeveryhappy,"saidamandressedasDedMoroz,the
RussiananalogueofSantaClaus,whogavehisnameonlyasAnton.
ButreliefmaycomebythetimeDedMorozmakeshisgift-givingroundsonNewYear's
Eve.
ForecastersexpecttemperaturesinMoscowtoreturntoaseasonablebelow-freezinglevel
onSaturdayorSunday.

[returntoContents]

#2
RussiaBeyondtheHeadlines
www.rbth.ru
December23,2015
Theworldin2015:Anostalgiaforbalance
Theyear2015hasdemonstratedasevereimbalanceintheworldorderandthe
impossibilityofreturningtointeractiongovernedbyoldprinciples.Asglobalplayersstrive
forareturntotheirindividualperceptionofa"goldenage,"FyodorLukyanovconsiders
whichgeopoliticalmodelappearsthemostlikelyinthenearfuture.
ByFyodorLukyanov
TheauthoristheeditorinchiefoftheRussiainGlobalPoliticsmagazineandheadof
researchattheValdaiInternationalDiscussionClub.

Theyear2015isthefirstinwhichno-oneiscontestingtheobviousanymore:thattheworld
systemisinasevereimbalance,onewhichkeepsgeneratingnewcrises.Manyrealized
thisalongtimeago,butwerereluctanttoadmitit,i.e.togiveupthecozyperceptiondating
backtothelate20thcenturythateverythingisgoingwellandinevitablerelapsescanbe
successfullycontained.

Forexample,Russia'sactionstoincorporateCrimeaandsupporttheanti-Maidan
movementsineasternUkrainewereviewedasonesuchrelapse.Theleadingpowers(in
termsoftheirimpactontheworldorder,i.e.theWest)tried-throughconsolidatedpolitical,
economicandpsychologicalpressure-tomaketheKremlinchangeitsbehaviorandreturn
"totherightsideofhistory."Inotherwords,theyproceededfromthepremisethatthenotion
of"asitshouldbe"exists.

ThepressureonRussiafailedtoproducethedesiredeffect,andthencamethefinal
turningpoint.InthecasewithSyria,no-oneknowsanymorewhatthis"asitshouldbe"is.
TheMiddleEastof2015hascometorepresentdespair:Themoreeffortismade,themore
obviousitisthat,first,sucheffortisineffective,andsecond,thatitisimpossibleinprinciple
torallytheparticipantsinthismulti-layeredconflictaroundasinglegoal.

ISIS:seekingtoresetthegame

Thetrendoftheyearisthehopelessdesiretoreturnto"thegoldenage,"witheachplayer
havingtheirownideaofthis.Themoststrikingexampleis,ofcourse,themain
troublemakeroftheMiddleEastregion,whichisnowcustomarilyreferredtoasDaesh
(knownintheWestasIslamicState,orISIS).Here,everythingisstraightforward:backto
thecaliphate,wheneverythingwasfairandsquaredownwiththeachievementsoftheso-
called"civilization"thatcolonizersforcedonthetruebelievers.

ThecertainpopularitythatradicalIslamistsfromwhatwasoncecalledMesopotamiaenjoy
intheWest,theinterestintheirideasandactionsisasignthatevenoutsideofthe
proposed"caliphate"peoplefeelanemptinessinsideandincreasinglylongforsomething
differentfromwhattheyhavenow.

Havingsaidthat,itisnotonlytheself-proclaimedcaliph,AbuBakral-Baghdadi,theleader
ofISIS,whohankersafteragoldenpast.Thosewhobelongtomainstreamglobalpolitics
lookbackintothepastforinspirationtoo-albeitanot-so-distantpast.

Ayearningforamorestableera

Thememorabledatesoftheyear2015areareminderofhistoricaleventslinkedtothe
establishmentofaparticularworldorder:the200thanniversaryoftheCongressofVienna,
the70thanniversaryoftheendofWorldWarIIandtheestablishmentoftheUN,the40th
anniversaryoftheHelsinkiFinalAct,the25thanniversaryoftheCharterofParisforaNew
Europe.

Uptotheendofthe20thcentury,thenotionofaworldorderwasalwaysaboutbalance.A
complexbalance,involvingnumerousplayers,aswasthecaseinthe19thcentury.Ora
relativelysimplebalance,asafterWorldWarII,whenthereemergedasystemofequal
dominanceoftwosuperpowers.Abalanceinevitablyenvisagedamutualrecognitionof
spheresofinfluenceinoneformoranother.ThatwasthefoundationfortheViennamodel,
theYaltasystem,theHelsinkiFinalAct.

Atfirstglance,itmayseemthatthe1990ParisCharter,whichdeclaredanendtospheres
ofinfluenceanddivisionlines,isbasedonadifferentprinciple.However,inpractice,ittoo
requiredabalance,notforconfrontationbutforrapprochement.Ineffect,thisiswhat
MikhailGorbachevdreamtof:Asfarashewasconcerned,theendoftheColdWarshould
havebeenbasedonaconvergence,anequalandmutualcomingtogetherofpreviously
competingblocs.Thebreak-upoftheSovietUnionshutthedooronthatoption:Russia
wasnotperceivedasasecondcenterinEurope.

Irrespectiveofwhatisbeingdeclaredofficially,anidealforRussiawouldbeareturnto
someformofagreedspheresofinfluence.HencethenostalgiaforViennaandYalta.The
idealfortheWestisthesituationofthe1990s,whenthespheresarenomoreandthe
influencehasbecomeuniversal.HencetheconstantreferencestoHelsinki(omitting,
however,tomentionthatcomponentoftheHelsinkiAccordsthatestablishedtheverysame
spheresofinterest)andParis,whichenvisagesacommonality.

Aproliferationofglobalactors

Neitherofthesenostalgia-inducingmodelscanbebroughtback.Whatmakestoday's
politicsdifferentfromtheeraof"worldorders"ishowuncommonlydemocraticitis.There
aretoomanyofthosewhoareinfluencingtheprocessesnow.

Nowthelistconsistsofnotjustthemajorpowers,asbefore,butalsoofnumerousmid-
rangecountriesseekingtomakeitintotheinternationalpremierleague,interstate
organizationswiththeirbureaucraticinertia,hugecorporations(withcommunications
giantsbeinginaleagueoftheirown),non-stateactors,likenon-governmental
organizations(ISIS,ineffectisoneofthem)andevensomeindividualswhopossess
intellectualpoweroverotherpeople.

Insidestatestoo,decision-makingismademorecomplicatedbythefactthatgovernments
areunabletofullycontrolwhatishappeningontheirterritory:Itisimpossibletofence
oneselfofffromthenumerousinfluencesofaglobalworld.

Clearlydefinedspheresofinterestareoutofthequestion.Thosewhousedtobelongto
theminthepastarenolongerpreparedtoacceptthistypeofrelations,whilethosewho
usedtocontrolthemdonothaveenoughleversofpowertoforceanyone.

Theoutgoingyearhasshownthatthedominanttrendisnottheuniversalityofapyramid-
likeworld,asitseemedinthe1990s,butthefragmentationoftheworldintomore
manageablesegments.Theyoperateaccordingtotheirownratherthanuniversalrules.
TheTrans-PacificPartnershipsetupinOctoberthisyearisaprototypeofthistypeofa
"bloc."AnothercomponentshouldbetheTransatlanticTradeandInvestmentPartnership,
whichU.S.PresidentBarackObamahopestoreachanagreementonbeforetheendofhis
presidentialterm.

Abalanceoftwooceans

Theyear2015hasnotonlybecomeaRubiconmarkingthestartofsomethingnew,ithas
alsoshownthatitisimpossibletobringbackthepast.TheauthorsoftheValdaiClub
annualreport,whichthisyeariscalled"WarandPeaceinthe21stCentury,"areconvinced
that"theriseinchaosandunmanageabilityininternationalrelationscannotlastforever...
mostlikely,wearewitnessingtheemergenceofanewstructureoftheworld,basedon
whatiseffectivelyabalance,albeitloose,oftwolargegroupsofstates."

"Now,aneworderwillnotberebornonthepost-warruinsofthepreviousorderbutwill
gradually'germinate'fromadialecticchaosofrivalryandinterdependence,"readsthe
report.Thisishappeningorganically,irrespectiveofthewillofthemainplayers,whoare
stillcaptivatedbythepast.

Aflexiblebalanceof"thetwooceans"withAmericainthecenterontheoneside,andthe
continentalmassofEurasiawithaclosepartnershipbetweenChinaandRussiaonthe
other,isatfirstglancesomewhatdisconcerting.Itlookstoomuchlikeyetanotherversion
oftheclassicgeopoliticsoftheMahanandMackindervarietyorlikethegrimpredictionsof
GeorgeOrwellwithhisEurasiaandOceania.

Infact,thesearetwocommunitiesthatareunitedbycommoninterestsfromwithinbutare
interdependentandnotconfrontationaltoeachother,atleastnotalways.Thisisthebest
optionthatonecanimaginetoday.Yetanotherversionofan"endofhistory"-inflected
"eternalpeace,"predictably,hasturnedouttobeautopia.

[returntoContents]

#3
http://warontherocks.com
December23,2015
TheSevenDeadlySinsofRussiaAnalysis
ByMichaelKofman
MichaelKofmanisanAnalystattheCNACorporationandaFellowattheWilsonCenter's
KennanInstitute.PreviouslyheservedasProgramManageratNationalDefenseUniversity.
Theviewsexpressedherearehisown.

Astheclockcountsdowntotheendofanothertumultuousanddifficultyearofdealingwith
Russia,thenaturalinstinctistolookbackonthebattlesandsurprisesof2015withaneye
tomakingpredictionsforthecomingyear.Thereismaterialaplenty:thebattleof
Debaltseve,Moscow'soperationsinSyria,acrisiswithTurkeythatstillburnsbright.Anew
yearoffersnewopportunitiesforprognostication:WherewillRussiastrikenext?Whatis
Putinthinking?Whatarethelikelyflashpointsof2016?Insteadofthistraditionalexercise,
Russiaexpertsshouldreflectonayearofdiscussions,briefings,roundtables,merciless
PowerPointdecksabouthybridwar,andoccasionalspatsinthevirtualpagesofoutletslike
WarontheRocks.Whatarethenaggingquestions,questionableassumptions,and
unknownsthatbesettheanalyticalandpolicymakingcommunity?

ExpertsandpolicymakerswhodealwithRussiaarelivinginahigh-tempoenvironment,
keepingpacewithmilitaryinterventions,crises,andthefrequenttwistsinbilateralrelations.
However,inanysuchendeavor,itispossibletolearnlessonsthatarenottrue.Thisismy
ownattemptatpresentingalistofquestionablebitsofanalysisandassumptionsthatexist
withinthecommunity.Indoingso,Ihopetopushpeopletocriticallyexaminehowtheylook
atRussia.Whydowesaysomeofthesethings,andmoreimportantlywhydowethink
them?

1.TheRussianGovernmentisBrittle.Orisit?

PresentingVladimirPutin'sregimeasbrittleisoftenanalyticalshorthandforarguingthathis
regimeisdangerousinthenearterm,butequallylikelytoimplodeinshortorder,with
Russiadescendingintoturmoilandinstability.Indeed,Moscowhasaccumulatedsomany
domesticandforeignpolicyproblemsthatitwouldmakethisalogicalassessmentwereit
notforthepoortrackrecordofsuchpredictions.Witheachnewoutbreakinwhathas
becomeanalmostroutineseriesofpolitical,economic,orforeignpolicycrises,asegment
oftheRussia-watchercommunityinvariablybeginstomakepredictionsofPutin'simminent
demise.Unfortunately,thescienceofpredictingregimechangeseemstolagsignificantly
behindastrology.WeshouldrememberthatfewpredictedtheSovietUnion'srapiddemise,
thestartoftheArabSpring,oranticipatedtherapidfallofVictorYanukovichinUkraine
followingthestartoftheMaidan.

Therearetwoongoingcasestudiesonthemeritofsuchpredictions.ThefirstisPakistan,
acountrythatbythesametheoryshouldhavecollapsedlongagoundertheweightofits
manyproblems.ThesecondisNorthKorea,whichsoldiersondespitedecadesof
predictionsandestimatesoftheregime'simminentimplosion.AsformerSecretaryof
DefenseRobertGatesremarkedonourabilitytopredictthenatureandlocationofthenext
conflict,"ourrecordhasbeenperfect"giventhat"we'veneveroncegottenitright."The
sameshouldbesaidofourabilitytojudgeregimebrittleness.Thepointisnotthatneo-
Kremlinologyorassessmentsofpoliticalstabilityareawasteoftime,butthatthisisa
singlelayerofanalysisthatshouldbetakenwithahealthydoseofskepticism.

UndoubtedlythosewhoregularlypredictPutin'sdownfallwillonedaybevindicated,butfor
planningandanalyticalpurposes,ourexpectationsshouldbetempered.Thenexttestof
politicalbrittlenesscomesin2018whenwewillseehowreadyandwillingtheRussian
publicistoacceptPutin'sautomaticre-election.Nobodyknowswhatthestateofthe
economy,currencyvaluation,foreignexchangereserves,oilprices,orinternationalposition
ofRussiawillbethatyear.

2.TheUnitedStateshasaPutinProblem,notaRussiaProblem.OrDoesit?

Theindividualsinpowermatter,andanotherRussianleadermaynothavechosentoannex
CrimeaorinvadeUkraineinresponsetotheMaidan'svictory.Thatbeingsaid,thelingering
debateonwhethertheUnitedStateshasaPutinproblemoraRussiaproblemisan
unsettledone.IfoneassumesthattherealproblemisPutin'sregime,howeverlongitmight
last,thenthenaturalcourseofactionistoavoidanybargainswithRussia,cauterizethe
damagetothebilateralrelationshipandwaitforanotherleader.Mypersonalviewisthat
whoeversucceedsVladimirPutinwillnotprovetobeallthatdifferent,andwilllikelyfollowa
similarpolicypath.

RussianhistorysuggeststhatPutinisanythingbutanaberrationinleadership,pursuing
securitydilemmasinthesamemannerofmanypreviousoccupantsoftheKremlin.Seeing
Russia'ssecurityspaceasazero-sumgameandsecuringitbylimitingthesovereigntyof
itsneighborsisalmostcanonforRussianforeignpolicy(asitwasforSovietpolicy).We
shouldaskifPutin'sforeignpolicyisfundamentallysodifferentfromthatofBorisYeltsin,
Russia'sfirstdemocraticleader,orifRussiawassimplytooweakduringYeltsin'sruleto
challengethepost-ColdWarsecurityarrangementsinEurope.Inearly2014,Henry
KissingerwarnedWashingtonnottofixateonPutinwhenhewrotethat"FortheWest,the
demonizationofVladimirPutinisnotapolicy,itisanalibifortheabsenceofone."

YeltsintoobelievedintheapplicationofforcetoachievedesiredpoliticalendsinRussiaand
onitsperiphery.ExamplesarefoundamongRussianinterventionsinTransnistriaand
Tajikistanin1992andAbkhaziain1993,theuseoftankstosuppressaconstitutionalcrisis
inMoscow,theFirstChechenWarin1994-96,andtheRussianparatrooperdeploymentto
seizePristinaInternationalAirportin1999aheadofNATO'sdeploymentinKosovo.In
retrospect,thatadministrationwasnotshortonmilitarygambits,complaintsaboutNATO
expansion,orgripeswithU.S.militaryinterventions.ThecharacterofYeltsin'sgovernment
wasquitedifferentfromPutin'sregime,butarguablyitwasunderhisleadershipinthe
1990sthatRussiabeganandendeditsbriefflirtationwithdemocracy.Intruth,wehave
Yeltsin'spresidencytothankforPutin.

Putin'sviewoftheworldmayhaveevolvedduringhisrule,butthereislittleevidencethat
weshouldexpecthissuccessortotraveladifferentpath.Thusfar,thereisnothingto
suggestthatthenextRussianleader,whenfacedwithasimilarinternationalandregional
environmentwillnotattempttoengagetheWest,leavedisappointedandreverttothe
ruthlesspursuitofRussiannationalinterest.Anotherquestionseldomraisediswhether
U.S.policytowardsRussiawouldtrulychangeifitstroublesomeleaderweretodisappear
tomorrow.

3.MoscowCannotKeepThisUp.OrCanit?

CurrentdiscourseonRussia'seconomicfrailtyfoldsintothebroaderdiscussionon
whetherornotMoscowcansustainthecurrentstateofconfrontation.Inotherwords,how
longcanMoscowkeepthisup?TheunderlyingquestioniswhetherRussiawillceasebeing
aprobleminthenear-tomid-termbysuccumbingtoitseconomicwoes.Thenarrativethat
RussiawillrunoutofmoneyisprevalentintheWest,eventhoughMoscow'sforeign
reserveshavebothstabilizedandshownamodestreboundinrecentmonths.Thebigger
questioniswhydowetalkaboutRussiaasthoughitwasabankoracompany?Did
Russiagooutofbusinessafterthe1998default?

WhatistheactualconnectionbetweenWesternsecurityconsiderationsvis-a-visRussia,
itsforeignandnationalsecuritypolicy,andtheamountofmoneyithasonhand?Putin
announcedambitiousmilitaryreformsin2009,whenthepriceofoilfellto$35perbarrel.
RussiainvadedUkraineandannexedCrimeain2014eventhoughtheRussianeconomy
wasclearlyenteringarecessioninlate2013.Lookingfurtherback,Russianspersevered
throughthefinancialdefaultandcurrencycrisisof1998,manygoingthebetterpartofa
yearwithoutsalaries.PutinwasanointedasYeltsin'ssuccessorfollowingthiseconomic
carnage,andintheaftermathlaunchedtheSecondChechenWarin1999,aprolonged
conventionalandcounterinsurgencycampaign.
Thisdiscussionbegsamoreessentialquestionastowhetherornottheeconomyhasever
beenafoundationofRussianpowerintheinternationalsystem.Inapreviousarticlefor
WarontheRocks,IarguedthatRussiahasoftenappearedtobethesickmanofEurope,
technologicallybackwards,withalacklustereconomy,andapoliticalsystemthat
consistentlylagsbehindtheneedsofitssociety.Thatbeingsaid,despiteWesternfearsto
thecontrary,theSovietUnionwasneverasuperpowerbyvirtueofbeingaserious
economiccompetitortotheUnitedStates,letalonetheWest,atbestattaining57percent
ofAmerica'sGNPinthelate1960sbeforefallingbehind.

Today,plentyofseniorU.S.officialsconsiderRussiatobeastrategicthreatandaserious
opponenttoNATOeventhoughitsGDPisbarelyatenthofAmerica's.Inarecentinterview
discussingRussia,DeputyDefenseSecretaryRobertWorkappliedMearsheimer's
definitionofagreatpowertoMoscow,highlightingthereturnofgreatpowerpoliticsinthe
internationalsystem.Granted,hesaidthiswasanarrowlens,butiftheUnitedStates
considersRussiatobeagreatpower(orregionalpowerwithabignucleararsenal)when
itseconomyrepresentsamere3.3percentofglobalGDP,thentheconnectionbetween
economicfundamentalsofpowerandRussia'spositionintheinternationalsystemmerits
furtherdiscussion.

4.RussiaCannotSustainMilitaryOperations.OrCanit?

FollowingcloselythediscussionofeconomicweaknessisageneralsentimentthatRussia
isunabletosustainmilitaryoperationsduetofinancialorforceconstraints.Goingbackto
early2015,thenotionthatRussia'sarmedforcesaretieddownor"stuck"inUkraine
seemstohavedissipated.Themeritofsuchestimateswascastintodoubtwhen,in
Septemberofthisyear,RussiawassimultaneouslysustainingitsdeploymentinUkraine,
conductingtheexpensivestrategicexerciseCenter2015,anddeployinganexpeditionary
operationtoSyria.Itoowaswronginarguingthatlogisticalandfinancialconstraintswould
limitMoscow'sinvolvementinSyriagivenitslackofassetstosustainexpeditionary
operations.

Muchtomyownsurprise,RussiasurgedsealiftbyreflaggingTurkishcommercialshipsto
supportitsincreasingtrooppresenceandbaseexpansions.ForMoscow,necessityisthe
motherofinvention,whereasfortheUnitedStatesitisusuallythemotherofprocurement.
Russiaalsofoundplentyoffundingtotestexpensivelandattackcruisemissilesofalmost
everyvariety.Inarecentpressconference,Putinshowednosignsthateconomic
constraintswouldimpactmilitaryoperations.Instead,itseemsRussiacansustainthisand
allotherlinesofeffortforatleastafewyears.At4.2percentofGDP,or3.3trillionrubles,
Russia'sdefensebudgetisthehighestithasbeensincethecollapseoftheSovietUnion.

Toooftenwetradeinouranalyticalexpertiseforanaccountant'sglasses,asthoughwe
couldcounttheRussianMinistryofDefense'smoneyoritsavailabletroopsbetterthanit
can.Ontheissueofsustainmentofmilitaryoperationsweneedadoseofanalytical
humility.

5.RussiaisStillaPowerinDecline.Orisit?

IfundamentallybelievethatRussiaisapowerinstructuraldecline,butincreasinglyI
wonderabouttherelevanceofthatassessment.Itseemswitheachyearwecaninferless
andlessfromsuchastatement.CelesteWallanderandEugeneRumer,twolongtime
RussiaexpertswhomIholdinthehighestregard,oncewrote:

"Despiteseveralyearsofeconomicgrowthandanewdynamicleader,Russiaremainsa
powerindecline.Neitheritsrecenteconomicsuccessnoritsvigorousleadershipis
sufficienttomakeupforthelong-termlossesthecountryhassufferedortocompensate
forthecontemporaryshortcomingsthatbeliekeyelementsofRussianpower."

TheonlyproblemwiththisremarkablepieceinTheWashingtonQuarterlyisthatitwas
publishedinlate2003.Roughlyadecadelater,PresidentObamasimilarlyopinedthat
Russiaisa"regionalpower"actingoutof"weakness."ManyofRussia'sunderlying
weaknesseswereastruethenastheyarenow,butifRussiaisdeclining,itisdoingsovery
slowly,anditsleadershipdoesnotacceptsuchapredestinedfate.Asimprobableasitmay
be,absentasuddenRussiancollapse,atsomepointwemaybeforcedtoadmitthat
Russiaisdecliningsoslowlythecountrymightjustbemuddlingthrough.
6.DemographyWillDetermineRussia'sFate.OrWillit?

Russia'sdemographicproblemsarecommonlyreferencedasoneofthedriversofits
supposedlyassuredstructuraldecline.Analystsoftenmentiondemographytoeitherblithely
supportthenotionthatRussiawillsimplyceasetobeaproblemfortheWestinthelong
term,orworriedlyspeculatethatthecountrywillbecomedangerouslyunstable.Butwhat
mightRussia'sdemographicstrulydetermine?WillRussiasomehowbelessofastrategic
threatoraconcernfortheUnitedStatesifithasasmallerpopulation?Itisalmostcertain
thatRussiawillhaveenoughmanpowertomaintain1,550strategicnuclearweapons,
alongwithaconventionalforcetoovermatchanyofitsneighbors,saveChina.Perhaps
counterintuitively,intheshortterm,Russia'sarmedforceshavesteadilyincreasedinsize
fromroughly667,000-700,000in2012to900,000today.

Whenconsideringlong-termalternativefuturesitisworthnotingthatRussia'seconomy
andnationalbudgetisinexorablydependentonenergyandresourceextraction.Theseare
industriesthatarenotlabor-intensive.Atthesametime,Russiaisthebeneficiaryofalarge
laborinfluxfromformerSovietRepublics,oftenmakingitthethird-orsecond-highest
recipientofmigrantsintheworld.CanRussianationalizesuchlaboratthecostofinternal
socialcohesion?Howmuchwillitsgovernmentbudgettrulysufferfollowingalaborforce
contraction?Isitevenfairtoassumethatwarfareorsimilarstatetaskswillremain
manpower-intensive30yearsfromnow?AreRussia'sdemographicproblems
fundamentallydifferentfromthoseofotherdevelopedstates,includingmanyU.S.allies?It
strikesmethatRussia'sdemographicdeclineismoreofanopen-endedquestionthana
definitivestatementonthefutureofthecountry.

7.ForPutin,It'sAllAboutRegimeSurvival.Orisit?

Moscow'sannexationofCrimea,invasionofUkraine,andlaunchofoperationsinSyriaare
sometimesexplainedasthethroesofafallingpoliticalsystemengagedina"survival
project."Theunderlyingtheoryunifyingtheseactionsisregimesurvival,brilliantly
advocatedbyLiliaShevtsovainanumberofarticlesandop-eds.Theproblemwiththis
approachisthatregimesurvivalcircularlyexplainseverythingandabsolutelynothingatthe
sametime:Thereisnopoliticalregimeonearththatisnotinterestedinitssurvival.Regime
survivalisaconstantmotivationformany,ifnotall,politicalsystemsandpoliticians.Itisso
fungibleananalyticalapproachthatitlendsitselfusefultoexplaininganyandallpolicy
choicesbyPutin.

Atitscore,thisargumentarbitrarilytakesthedomesticpoliticaloutcomesofMoscow's
actions,suchashighapprovalratingsathome,oraresurgentsenseofnationalism,and
movesthembackintimetobecometheprimaryobjectivesofforeignandnationalsecurity
policy.Thatcouldbetrue,butitseemsimpossibletoproveordisprove.Regimesurvival
maynotbeanincorrectexplanationofMoscow'smotives,butitiscertainlyincompleteas
ananalysisoftherealsourcesofRussiandecision-making.

RussiaAnalysisinPerspective

InmyownnarrowlaneofRussianmilitaryanalysis,thereisalwaysroomforamore
balanced,informed,andnuancedunderstandingofRussia.Perhapsthegreatestwoeof
discussionsonRussianmilitary,strategy,anddecision-making(otherthandebateson
hybridwarfare)istheconstantseesawbetweentwoextremes.Toooften,weareengaged
inanasininedebateastowhetherRussia'smilitaryisfivefeettallor12feettall.
Assessmentstendtotrackmorecloselywithwhereonesitsinthepolicymakingornational
securityestablishment,versuswheretheRussianmilitaryactuallyis,andwhatitcando.
HereIbelievethestartingpointshouldalwaysbeBismarck'sobservationthat"Russiais
neverasstrongasshelooksnorasweakasshelooks."Whenitcomestodecision-
makinganalysis,Putinisregularlycastinstarktermsaseitherabrilliantstrategist,
outfoxingtheWestateveryturn,orcompletelyincompetentwithoutanynotionofwhathe
willdonext.

PerchancethebroadestandmostvexingquestionforU.S.decision-makersandexperts
todayisthis:HowdowedeterRussia?Itisasvagueasitisrecurrent.Theshortansweris
thattheUnitedStatesdoesdeterRussia,whichiswhywe'reallstillhere70yearsafter
nuclearweaponswerefirstused.Amoreanalyticallyinteresting-andpoliticallyvaluable-
questionwouldbehowtheUnitedStatesshouldmanagegreat-powercompetitioninthe
internationalsystemandkeepconfrontationwithRussiafromescalatingintowar.Ifcrises
areinevitableamongthemajorplayers,anditseemstheyare,thenmanagingescalation
dynamicsisparamount.Whenfacedwithaproblem,bureaucracieshaveapredilectionfor
pursuingactivityandconfusingitforachievement,toparaphraseFareedZakaria.Tobetter
structureapolicyorastrategytowardsRussiaweshouldconfrontourownunderlying
assumptionsandthemeritsofprevailingnarratives,andmorerigorouslyseektofillexisting
gapsinanalysis.

[returntoContents]

#4
TheUnzReview
www.unz.com
December23,2015
PutinBlues
ByIsraelShamir

HeavydarknessbefallstheNorththesunrarelyemergesfrombetweentheclouds.This
year,Russiahasnoticeablylessstreetillumination,andthespiritsareanythingbutfestive.
OnlythewhitenessofthesnowandChristmastreesbreakthegloomandremindusofthe
forthcominglowpointofthecosmicwheel,Yuletide,whendaysstartstowaxandnightsto
wane.AsthisstellareventforetellstheNativityofourSavior,thisisaperiodofhopeaftera
verydifficultyear,allovertheworld.

Putinsupportersareunhappy

TheRussianskeepguessingwhatPresidentPutinwilltelltheminhistraditionaltelevised
addresstothenationatthebreakoftheNewYear.Heshouldsay,thisyearisover,andwe
shallallcheer,peoplepropose.Eventhemostoptimisticonesaredisappointedby
lacklustreeconomicperformance,andtheyblamethegovernmentofPrimeMinister
Medvedevandhisliberalmonetaristteam.MeanwhilePutinrisesabovetheblamegame,
butthegovernmentislessandlesspopular.

-AstheRoubledrops,eventheratherpro-Kremlinmass-circulationnewspaperKP(full
disclosure:IwriteanoccasionalcolumnfortheKP)publishedacallfortheeconomyand
financeministerstoresignortobefired.ThereisaverylittlechancethatMrPutinwilltake
thisadviceandcleanhisgovernmentstables.

-Hecouldbeefuphiscreditbydumpingsome(orall)ofhisministers,butPutinisstubborn
andunusuallyloyaltohiscolleagues.Noaccusationhaseverconvincedhimtodismissa
manofhisteam.HisformerdefenceministerMrSerdyukovhasallegedlybeeninvolvedin
someshadydealing,whileSerdyukov'sparamourandassistantamassedmillionsby
sellingprimeMODassetstohercronies.Still,Putindidnotdumphim,andsavedhimfrom
jail.(HehadtoresigntobecomeaCEO,whilesheservedafewweeksinprison,atmost).

-Lastweek,theoppositionleaderMrNavalnyairedsomeheavychargesagainstAttorney
GeneralChayka.Forhisdefence,Chaykasaidthatthemanbehindthecampaignisthe
notoriousMrBrowder.BrowderisanAmericancrookwhomanagedtoappropriatemany
high-qualityRussianassetsforpenniesduringYeltsin'sprivatisation.Eventuallyhewas
forcedtopartwithhislootandhehasbeensentencedtomanyyearsofjailinabsentia.
Browderisslime,nodoubt,butitisaweakdefenceforChayka.Still,Putinrefusedtodrop
Chaykaoreventoinitiateanindependentinvestigationofhisallegedcrimes.

-PutinstandsbythemosthatedpoliticianofYeltsin'sera,MrAnatolyChubays.The
FinancialTimescalledhimFathertotheOligarchs.Afterleavingthegovernment,Chubays
hasbeenappointedtoleadtheRUSNANO,astate-ownedcorporationnotoriousforits
embezzlementandwaste.Putinsavedhimmanytimesoverfromprosecution.

-Putinwent,hatinhand,toYekaterinburgforthegrandopeningofBorisYeltsin'sMemorial
Centre(pricetag-ninebillionroubles)andreferredkindlytotheloathedlatePresidentwho
appointedhimhissuccessor.Peoplewerefuriousseeingtheirpresidentenjoyinghimself
amongthecarpetbaggersofYeltsin'sregime.

-CanyouimagineFoxTVtransmittingRussianpropaganda?InRussia,amajorchunkof
Russianmedia,state-ownedorsubsidisedbythetaxpayer,transmitspro-Westernand
anti-Russianagenda,allegedtheeminentfilmdirectorNikitaMichalkov,astaunch
supporterofPutin,inhisvideoseenbyovertwomillionviewersinafewdays.Hecalled
uponPutintoasserthislineandbanishtheenemieswithin,butstateTVrefusedto
broadcastthevideo.

-Putin'srecentpress-conferenceprovidedachanceformorecriticism.Besidethepoints
mentionedabove,thejournalistsaskedwhystateenterpriseCEOsarepaidmillionsof
dollarsayear,whileeverybodyelseiscalledupontotightenthebelt.Theyaskedwhythe
RussianCentralBankkeepsbuyingUSbondsandsupportstheUSDollarattheexpense
oftheRouble.Theyaskedwhyimportsubstitutiondoesnotworketc.

Theseareprotestsfromthepro-Putincrowd,frompeoplewhosupportedhistakeoverof
CrimeaandhisentryintoSyrianwar.Theycouldbearsomedeprivation,buttheyareupset
byPutin'scondoningthieves,byhisapparentcronyism,byhisoligarchfriends.Untilnow,
thecriticsavoidedattackingPutin,butthesearetheearlyswallows.DrStepanSulakshin,
theheadofaMoscowthinktank,publiclyaccusedPutinofknowinglyleadingRussiainto
furtherdegradation.

ThisbubblingdissatisfactionofPutin'ssupportersmayyetturnmoredangerousforthe
presidentthanthe2011Frondeofhishipsterenemies.Meanwhile,head-strongMrPutin
doesnotwishtoyieldground,sacrificesomeofmorehatedministersandCEOs,orattune
internalpoliciestopublicexpectations.Perhapsheisright,andthingsarenotwhatthey
appear,butjusticemustbeseen,notonlydone.

TalkingTurkeywithIsrael

TheTurkishfrictioncausedbyErdogan'sdecisiontoshootdowntheRussianbomberis
anothersourceofPutin'sblues.HehadspentalotofeffortnurturingrelationswithTurkey.
Allthiseffortwentdownthedrain.Therearemultimillionprojects,fromagaspipelineto
tourism.Allthatwascutdownatonce.Putin'splanstodelivergastoEuropebypassingthe
hostileUkrainecollapsed.ThisisahugesetbackfortheRussianpresident.

Therhetoricbetweentheleadersbecameacrimonious.HotheadsinRussiaspeakof
seizingtheBosporusandDardanelles,ofturningIstanbulintoConstantinopleandplanting
thecrossontheancientStSophiachurch.TheTurkishpresidentthreatenedtooccupy
Russiawithinoneweek-withhelpofNATO.

Turkey'schoiceisaresultofitsover-involvementinSyria.Withsomuchinvestment,
ErdoganwasloathtoseeSyriagone.WhilehisdecisiontodowntheRussianjetwas
ratherextreme,therelationsalreadyweretense.

Putin'striptoErevanandhiscondemnationof"TurkishgenocideoftheArmeniansin1915"
wasanunnecessaryprovocation.Nootherworldleaderdidit,butFrancoisHollandeof
FrancewhoflewinfortwohoursandproceededtoBaku,thecapitalofAzeriTurksthus
levellingtheplayingfield.IactuallycalleduponPutintoavoidthisstep,butthestrong
Armenianlobbyinsistedonthistrip.

Afterwards,therewasasupposedleak(inreality:afake)ofaharshandinsulting
conversationbetweenPutinandtheTurkishambassador.IcheckedwiththeAmbassador
andothersides.Itwasafake,butthisfakehasbeenspreadinmillionsofsitesandposts.

However,the$64,000questionisaboutSyria:willitbecomeavassalstatetothe
reconstitutedOttomansorwillitremainasovereignstatewithstrongtiestoRussia.
RussiathoughtithasastrongerhandasaninviteeoftheSyrianlegitimategovernment
TurkeydeniedBashar'slegitimacy.

TheriftbetweenTurkeyandRussiabecameafact.ItsmainbeneficiariesweretheUS-
andIsrael.Forthelastfiveyears,therelationsbetweenIsraelandTurkeywerehostile,
sinceIsraelicommandosmassacredninepeaceactivistsonboardtheTurkishvesselNavi
Marmara.InfaceoftheRussianthreat,theTurksagreedtomakepeacewithIsrael.

Israelisinvolvedintheconflictmorethanitadmits.TheRussianshaspublishedtheir
evidenceofDaeshoilbeingsmuggledtoTurkeybyTurkishcompanies.Thiscausedalotof
indignationinRussiaandelsewhere.Howdotheydaretobuystolenoilandfinancethe
terrorists!

TheRussiansforgottomentionthatthesmuggledoilgoestoIsrael.Israelisthemain
buyerofoilproducedbytheKurdsandbyDaesh.Thiswasreportedandcorroboratedby
theFTandbyAlArabyalJadeed.TheRussianmediaavoidedthetopic,asPutincherishes
hisgoodrelationswithNetanyahu.

Lastweek,IsraelisattackedsuburbsofDamascusandkilledsomeRussianallies,
Hezbollahfighters.Again,Russianstookitquietly.Noneofindignationcausedbydowning
ofthebomberseepedintotheRussianmedia.

Israelsupportsal-Nusra,declaredaterroristorganisationbytheUN.Thisisnotasecret:
recentlytheDailyMailpublishedareportglorifyingIsraelisoldierssavinglivesofthe
Islamistfighters.ThousandsofwoundedguerrillasreceivedmedicalassistanceinIsraeli
hospitalsandwentbacktofightBashar.

IsraelhasagoodworkingrelationswithDaesh,too.IwastoldthatDaeshtroopsentered
thePalestiniancampalYarmukbeingequippedwithlonglistsofPalestinianactivists.They
wereassembledandpubliclyexecuted.ThePalestiniansthinkthatDaeshreceivedthe
namesfromIsraelisecretserviceandactedupontheirrequest.Moreover,Daeshnever
everattackedaZionisttarget.

Putin-andRussianmediadidnotsayawordonthat.PerhapsPutinisrightRussiadoes
notneedsuchastrongenemyasIsrael,sinceIsraelileaderscansay"Jump,UncleSam,"
andUncleSamwillask"Howhigh?"However,theycouldtonedowntheirindignation
regardingTurkishoilsmuggling,TurkishhelptotheguerrillasandotherTurkishmisdeeds.

Israelisobjectivelyanenemy:itisanenemyofRussia'salliesHezbollahandIranitwants
dismembermentofSyriainordertokeepGolanHeightsforgooditprefersaSomalised
Syriatoahealthyandstrongone.ButNetanyahuplayshishandcautiouslydespitehis
feelingofinvulnerability.

TheIsraeliattackontheDamascussuburbstookplacedespitetheRussianC-400
operatinginSyria.ExpertssaytheC-400hasbeenplacedinLatakiaanditcan'teffectively
protecttheskiesabovetheSyriancapital,whiletheC-300purchasedbytheSyriansand
locatedinDamascushasbeenhitbyIsraelis.Meanwhile,theIsraeliAirForceistrainingat
avoidingandcopingwithaC-300inCyprus,asthatcountryhasaC-300ofitsown,
recentlyboughtfromtheRussians.

PutinhasnothingtogainfromconfrontationwithIsraelIsraelpreferstohaveitsway
withoutfightingtheRussians.Perhaps,soonerorlater,theIsraeliandRussianAirForces
willjoustbutmeanwhilebothsidesprefertopostponethatmoment.

PutinhopesErdoganwillgiveuponSyria.Thisisnotaneasytask,butnotanimpossible
one,either.Forthat,PutinmustworkwithPresidentObama-orwiththenextAmerican
President.

PutinvsWesternLeaders

ItisoftensaidthatPresidentObamaisaweakleader.Idonotthinkso.Heisawilyand
sophisticatedplayer.HevoidseveryagreementhiscountrymadewithRussia.Therewere,
andareagreementsgalore:fromMinsktotherecentUNSCresolutions.Atfirst(and
second)sight,theagreementsfollowtheRussianline.Otherwise,theRussianswouldnot
signthem.However,afterawhileObamaoffersadifferentinterpretation.Iwouldnotliketo
argueagainsthiminacourtoflaw.Heisastrickyasanylawyer.

Didhegiveuponthe"Assadmustgo"mantra?Itisnotclear.He,andhisSecretaryof
StateJohnKerrysometimessaythathemaystay,butquicklycontradictthemselvesand
insistonhisdeparture.Theyintroducenewandpeculiarideasdaily.Forexample,theysay
"OnlySunnismaydealwiththeSyriancrisis".ThisstrangeideainspiredtheSaudisand
theyevenclaimedtheyorganisedahugecoalitionofSunnistatestofightDaesh.Needless
tosay,withinafewdaysthis"coalition"vanishedlikedewundersunrays.

However,atthebottomline,ObamaplaysbyaColdWarscriptagainstRussia.Likea
drunkardaccusesothersofheavydrinking,heaccusedMittRomneyof"ColdWar
thinking",andwarnedPutinofhis"ColdWarthinking",butasadiscipleofZbigniew
Brzezinskihehardlycanthinkofanythingelse.EvenPentagongeneralscomplainedabout
thismatrixofhismind,saysSeymourHersh.

ThereisnothingPutinwantslessthananewroundoftheColdWar.HeisnotanewSoviet
leader.PeoplewhodreamofanewStalinarebarkingupawrongtree.Onemayregretit,
andmanyRussiansdoregretit,butPutinhasnogreatplansofsocialrearrangement.His
ambitionismoremodest:hewantsRussiatobeindependent,prosperous,great,and
equaltoothergreatnationslikeitwasin19thcentury.

LastweekIwasattheStPetersburgCulturalForum,agatheringofartists,curators,and
artministersfrom40countries,anditwasclearthatPutin'sRussiaismuchmore
interestedinitspre-revolutionarypastandinthe19thcenturyingeneral,thanin20thor
21stcenturyart.TheyperformedalostplaybyPuccini,theyreconstructedPetipaballets,
theyreadTolstoy.Theyrebuiltpalaces,theyfixedoldtheatres,eventhepre-revolutionary
circushadbeenreturnedtoitsoldgloryinclusiveofitsoldwell-forgottennameandthe
royalcircle.SomanyrestaurantsbearnamesremindingeveryoneoftheTsartimes.

ThereisawindofnostalgiainRussia,anditisforRussiaofLeoTolstoyandTchaikovsky.
PutinhasorderedthattheremainsoftheWhitegenerals,philosophers,artistsbebrought
backforburialontheRussiansoil.SovietandCommunistmemoriesaresuppressed.
Recently,PrimeMinisterMedvedevcalledforanotherboutofcommemorationsforStalin's
victims.Iamnotsurethatthisisawisepolicyperhapsitwouldbebettertoletpasttotake
careofitself.Buthereweare:Putinandhiscrowdareold-styleliberals,notsocial
reformers.Theydonotwanttoraisethebannerofrevolt.Theywanttofitintotheworldasit
is,butasequals.

Theproblemis,therearepeoplewhoarehell-bentonhegemonyandfull-spectrum
dominance,andtheyarenotlikelytoallowRussiatogoitsownway.Theywanttoimpose
theirrules,andsetinplacetheirdocilerulers.That'swhytheverymodestintentionsof
PutinmeetsomuchresistanceinNATOandthePentagon,intheWhiteHouseandin
Westminster.What'sworse,thesepeoplealreadycontrolthemainstreampoliticsofmany
countries,fromtheUStoJapan,toFranceandSweden.Itdoesnotmatterwhichofthe
mainstreampoliticianswinelections,theresultisthesame.

Putin's(andRussia's)hopelaysinpoliticiansoutsidethecontrolledmainstream.Donald
Trumpisagoodexample.PutinisnotparticularlyinterestedinUSinternalpoliticsandinMr
Trump'sunusualproposals.ThisisaninternalmatteroftheUS,andPutinsteersclearofit,
likehewantstheUStosteerclearofRussia'sinternalmatters.Forhim,whatisimportant,
isthatTrump'sAmericawouldnottrytodominatetheworldandimposeitsagenda.The
moralquestionwhetherTrump'sideasaboutMuslimsorLatinosareloftyorbaseisa
questionfortheAmericanpeopletodecide.Putinandmanyotherforeignleaderswant
America'snon-interferenceintheirinternalaffairs.

TherudeMr.Trumpseemstobethecandidateleastlikelytopushthebuttonfornuclear
suicideofmankind.MuchlesslikelythanniceMrsClintonwhocouldnukeRussiabecause
Russiansdonotcelebrategaymarriages.Remember,hernicehusbandbombedBelgrade
becausethenastySerbsdidnotallowforthesecessionofCroats(orwasitAlbanians?)

Trump-oranystraightforwarddecentpoliticianwhodoesnottakeordersfromtheMasters
ofDiscourse-wouldbeabletoplayballwithMrPutin,byclassicalrulesofinternational
law.TrumpandPutincouldreturntheconceptofsovereigntytoitsprivilegedposition.This
wouldendmanywars.ThewarinSyriabeganwhenMrObamaandMrHollandesaid
"Assadmustgo".Bytheclassicalrules,nostatemayinterfereintheaffairsofanother
sovereignstate.FromtheRussianpointofview,thewarinSyriaisfirstofallawarfor
sovereigntyandagainstglobalImperialvassaldom.

TheRussianswanttolighttheirChristmastreesandwishMerryChristmasandgowith
theirwomenandchildrentoaChristianchurchwithoutbeingscoldedbytheObamasand
ClintonsofthisworldforinsufficientpoliticalcorrectnessandfailuretomentionKwanzaa.

That'swhyitisimportantforallofusifwemayhopetoreachpeace,thisChristmasorthe
nextone.

[returntoContents]

#5
Kremlin.ru
December22,2015
FirstRussianInternetEconomyForum

VladimirPutinattendedtheFirstRussianInternetEconomyForum.
TheFirstRussianInternetEconomyForumistakingplaceinMoscowonDecember21-22.
Theplenarysession,attendedbyrepresentativesofthenationalITindustryandrelevant
ministriesandagencies,isdedicatedtoinitiativesforthelong-termdevelopment
programmeoftheRussianInternetsegmentandbranchesoftheeconomyusinginternet
technologies.

Priortotheplenarysession,thePresidentattendedanexhibitionofinnovativeprojects,
wherewasshown,inparticular,developmentsinbanktechnologies,cyber-protectionfor
industrialfacilitiesandthosedirectedatenhancingtheaccessibilityofpublicservicesfor
thepublic.

VladimirPutinalsohadaconversationwithForumparticipants.

PresidentofRussiaVladimirPutin:Goodafternoon,friends.

Togetherwithyourboard,wehavejusthadadetaileddiscussionoftheissuesyou
consideredyesterdayregardingspecificbranchesoftheeconomy.Ifounditinteresting.I
hopewehavemanagedtoagreeoncertainmatters.IcanseemyaideIgorShchegolev
here,theformerMinisterandnowmyPresidentialAide.Weagreedthatifourcolleagues
decidetodoso,thenwewillbehappytohandovertheresponsibilityforeverythingyou
agreedonandproposedasnecessaryforjointeffortstopromoteyourinitiativestooneof
yourcolleagues,whomIinvitedtoworkatthePresidentialExecutiveOfficewithMr
Shchegolev.ThiswillallowustopromoteyourideaswithinthePresidentialExecutive
Officeaswell,andalsowithintheexecutivebodiesintheGovernmentandtheregionsof
theRussianFederation,whichisnolessimportant.

Generally,inthepastyearstheInternethascertainlybecomepartofourdailylives.
Moreover,ithasbecomeaseparateindustrypracticallyallovertheworld,andyouspoke
aboutthisyesterday.Russiaiskeepingabreastofthings,ofcourse.Imaybesayingvery
generalthingsnotintendedforthisaudience,maybeforthosewhoarestandingtherewith
thecameras,sothatpeopleinthiscountrywillfindoutmoreaboutthis:Russiahasthe
largestnumberofInternetusers-inexcessof80millionpeople,with62millionofthem
goingonlineonadailybasis.Asoneoftheboardmemberssaid,peoplelookattheir
phonesabout300timesadaytoseewhatisgoingonintheworld,orineverydaylife,
thingsthatinterestpeoplewhousetheInternet.

ThenumberofcommercialInternetusersisalsogrowingrapidly.TheInternetmarket
accountsfor16percentoftheGDP.Remoteaccesstechnologiesareextensivelyusedto
providepublicandmunicipalservices,whichIamveryhappytosay,becausejustrecently
wewereonlybeginninghere.Generally,therehasbeengoodprogress.Intheprevious
year,morethanathirdofallpublicandmunicipalservicesbecameavailableonline.

ThesignificanceandinfluenceoftheInternetareconstantlygrowing.Weneedtousethe
Internetasadriverofmodernisationfortheentirecountry(thisisanundisputedfactand
nobodyhasanydoubtaboutit,andwearereadytohelpandsupportyouinyour
endeavours)toraisethequalityoflife,tocreateanewtechnologicalbasisforthenational
economyand,ofcourse,forthesocialspheres-educationandhealthcare.

TheInternetInitiativesDevelopmentFundhasbecomeoneoftheinstrumentsavailablefor
resolvingthesetasks.Wesetituptwoyearsagoanditseemstobedoingwell.Italready
has6billionrublesatitsdisposal.Overthe2.5yearsofitswork,theFundhasaddedover
170projectstoitsportfoliodesignedtoresolvespecificissuesfacingbothindividualsand
businesses.

Wedefinitelyneedtodevelopastrategyforthelong-termdevelopmentoftheRussian
Internet,takingintoconsiderationtheoveralldevelopmenttendenciesoftheworldwide
web.Ifullyagreewithyouthat,bearinginmindtheoveralltendenciesandwithgreat
respectforourpartnersandcompetition,wemustcreatecommonlivingandworking
conditionsforallonthismarket.Nobody,primarilyournationalparticipants,shouldbeputin
asituationthatwouldmakeyoulesscompetitive.Ifullyagreewiththosewhoreferredtothe
decisionswearemakingintherealeconomy,inindustryandagriculture,saying:wedo
offercertainbenefitstoRussianmarketplayers,tonationalproducers,sowhynotdothe
samehere.Iagree:wearereadytoconsiderthisanddosomething,provided,ofcourse,
thatitdoesnotviolateourWTOcommitments.Iamcertainwecanfindappropriate
solutions.
Iwouldliketowishyousuccess.Thankyouverymuch.

[returntoContents]

#6
www.rt.com
December22,2015
'14yearsofoccupationbyworld'srichestnation,Afghanistanremainsdesperate'

Outsideforcescannotdictatewhatacountry'sgoverningsystemisgoingtolooklike,but
that'swhat'shappeninginAfghanistan,saysMedeaBenjamin,cofounderofleft-wingNGO
CodePinktoldRT.

TwoattackstookplaceinAfghanistanonMonday.Threerocketshitthediplomaticareain
Kabulsomewayfromthecenterofthecity.Thathappenedafteramotorbikesuicide
bombercarriedoutanattackontheBagramairbasekillingsixUStroops.

Meanwhile,theTalibanisaggressivelypushingbackintoHelmandprovince.Themilitants
aresaidtobeclosetooverrunningthekeycityofSangin.

USSecretaryofStateJohnKerryhasdescribeddevelopmentsinAfghanistanaspositive.
However,AmericanpoliticalactivistMedeaBenjamindoesn'tagreecallingitaridiculous
statement.

"TheUShasspentprobablyatrilliondollarsinAfghanistananditremainsoneofthe
poorestcountriesintheworldoneoftheworstplacesforwomentohavechildrenoneof
theworstratesofilliteracyamongwomen,"shetoldRT.

TheUSinvadedAfghanistanin2001afterthe9/11attackscarriedoutonUSsoil,and
accordingtoBenjamin,"itiscertainlynotacountrythatafter14yearsofbeingoccupiedby
therichestcountryintheworldhasmuchtospeakforitintermsofdevelopment."

IslamicState(IS,formerlyISIS/ISIL)isnowfightingtheTalibanwhichcouldmakethings
evenworsefortheAfghanpeople.

ActivistarguesthatitisterriblethatafteralloftheseyearsandthebillionsofdollarstheUS
hasputintotraininglocalAfghanforcestheyarestillnotabletocontroltheirowncountry.

"Ithinkitisareflectionofthefactthatoutsideforcescomingincannotdictatewhata
country'sgoverningsystemisgoingtolooklike,"saidBenjamin.

Shesuggeststherehasalwaysbeenaneedforapoliticalsolutiontotheproblemsin
AfghanistanandtheUSshouldputitsmoneyintodevelopingthecountryinsteadofthe
military.

Speculatingonpossiblesolutions,theactivistsaidtherehavebeenconstantattemptsat
talkwiththeTaliban.However,shebelievesthattheyneedtogetseriousaboutthat.

"JohnKerryshouldputsomeofhisdiplomaticenergiesintofindingapoliticalsolutionthatis
goingtounfortunatelyhavetoincludetheTalibanaspartofatransition.TheTalibanare
localpeopleandtheycan'tbewishedaway,"BenjamintoldRT.

"ButIthinktheremaining10,000UStroopsarenotgoingtobeenoughtodictatetothe
Afghangovernmentwhatitspolicyshouldbe,"shecontinued.

Benjaminsaidthatithastobeapoliticalsolutionandallenergyandresourcesshouldbe
putintothatgoal.

'ObamaadministrationwantstopushSEALabusesinAfghanistanundertherug'

Meanwhile,aNewYorkTimesreporthasaccusedtheUSNavyofcoveringuptheabuseof
AfghandetaineeswhichtookplaceinMay2012.
TheNavalCriminalInvestigativeServicelaunchedaninvestigationintoacasewhere
tortureresultedinthedeathofamandetainedbyUSNavySEALS.Despiteeyewitness
accountsagainsttheUSservicemen,thenavyprobedismissedthecharges,claimingthe
evidencedidn'tsupporttheallegedmisconduct.

CriminaldefenseattorneyandformerCIAofficerJackRicespeakingaboutdetaineeabuse
saidthatinacaselikethisthereshouldnothavebeenaminimalinvestigation.

"Thisshouldhavebeenafull-blowncriminalinvestigation,whichisfarmoreseriousonthe
militaryside,"hetoldRT.

Headdedthatiftheywantedtotakethistotheextreme,theycouldhavebeenchargedin
FederalCourt,whichisaciviliancourtintheUS.

"Baseduponthefactthattherewasadeathinthiscaseitshouldhavenotbeen
investigatedasitwas,"Ricesaid.

Ricearguesthattheinvestigationcouldbereopened"basedupontheseriousnessofthe
caseandthefactthatessentiallyitwasdismissed."

"Itisdisturbingthattheyseemtomakeadecisiontotreatthisasinconsequentiallyasthey
havereallybaseduponthedeathofoneofthedetainees,"hecontinued.

TheSEAL'scommandersaidtheevidenceprovidedinthereportwasinconsistent.

Ricesaiditwaspossiblethereareinconsistenciesinthereport."Butthatinitselfitdoesn't
meanthatyoushouldn'tgoforwardwithaninvestigation,"headded.

AccordingtoRice,heregularlyencountersreportsthathaveinconsistencieswithinthem.

"Thatdoesn'tstoptheinvestigation,thatdoesn'tstoptheprosecutionjustbecausesome
thingsdon'tcompletelyaddupdoesnotmeanyoushouldnotcontinuetodigitdoesn't
meanthatyoushouldnotpotentiallyevenchargesomebodywithseriouscriminal
offenses,"headded.

TheformerCIAofficerconsiderstheUSgovernmentistryingtoburytheinvestigationitself.

"Thefactthatwhattheydidwasdivertthistoaminimalinvestigationandtothekindof
investigationandprocessforinconsequentialevents,ratherthansomethingfarmore
seriousreallytellsmethattheyaresortoftryingtopushitaway,totrytoputitunderthe
rug."

In2009PresidentObamasaidhedidn'tthink2000picturesoftortureshouldbereleased
becausethiswouldendangerUStroopsabroad.RicearguesthatPresidentObama
decidedhewasnotgoingtoreleasetheAbuGhraibphotos.

"Whenhewasrunningforofficehepromisedhewantedtransparencyandhewantedthe
Americanpeopleandtheworldtoseethephotosthemselves,"hetoldRT.

Inconclusionhesaidthat"thelikelihoodofsuccessinreopeningthisisnotverycertainat
thispoint."

"Myexpectationisitwillnotbereopened,"Ricepredicted.

[returntoContents]

#7
TheNationalInterest
December23,2015
America'sColdWarMasterPlantoNukeRussia
Nowforthefirsttime,weknowwhichRussiancitieswouldhavebeendestroyed,andwhy.
ByMichaelPeck
MichaelPeck,afrequentcontributortotheNationalInterest,isadefenseandhistorical
writerbasedinOregon.HisworkhasappearedinForeignPolicy,WarIsBoringandmany
otherfinepublications.
IftheColdWarhadturnedthermonuclear,weknowthattheUnitedStatesandSovietUnion
wouldhavebeendevastated.

Butnowforthefirsttime,weknowwhichRussiancitieswouldhavebeendestroyed,and
why.TheU.S.governmenthasfinallydeclassifiedthe1950sStrategicAirCommandtarget
list,whichwouldhavedispatchedAmericanbombersandmissilesonnuclearstrikes
acrosstheCommunistworld.

"SAClistedover1200citiesintheSovietbloc,fromEastGermanytoChina,alsowith
prioritiesestablished,"accordingtotheNationalSecurityArchive,thenon-governmental
organizationwhichrequestedthedeclassifiedinformation."MoscowandLeningradwere
priorityoneandtworespectively.Moscowincluded179DesignatedGroundZeros(DGZs)
whileLeningradhad145,including'population'targets."
[http://nsarchive.gwu.edu/nukevault/ebb538-Cold-War-Nuclear-Target-List-Declassified-
First-Ever/]

Butatleastintheory,thiswouldnothavebeenwantondestructionorterrorbombing.There
wassupposedtobemethodbehindthenuclearmadness.SAC'sprioritywastodestroy
SovietairpowerbeforeSovietbombers-thiswasbeforeICBMsweredevelopedinthe
1960s-couldstrikeAmericanandWesternEuropeantargets.Some1,100airfieldswere
targetedandprioritized,withtheSovietTu-16BadgerbomberbasesinBykhovandOrsha
inByelorussiaatthetopofthelist.OnceSovietairwarcapabilityhadbeendestroyed,and
assumingbothsideswereinanystatetocontinuethewar,thenSovietindustrywouldhave
beenbombednext.

Andsowouldalotofinnocents.TheSACtargetlist,compiledin1956andpublishedas
partofa1959nuclearweaponsplanningstudy,deliberatelyincludedcivilianpopulations.

TheSACplanspecified"the'systematicdestruction'ofSovietblocurban-industrialtargets
thatspecificallyandexplicitlytargeted'population'inallcities,includingBeijing,Moscow,
Leningrad,EastBerlin,andWarsaw,"notedNationalSecurityArchiveresearchers.
"Purposefullytargetingcivilianpopulationsassuchdirectlyconflictedwiththeinternational
normsoftheday,whichprohibitedattacksonpeopleperse(asopposedtomilitary
installationswithciviliansnearby)."

Mostofthe800pagesofdocumentsconsistoflistsoftargetsandtheirassociated
alphanumerictargetnumbers.SACplannersassumedin1959theycouldstrikewith2,130
B-52andB-47bombers,RB-47reconnaissanceaircraft,andF-101fighterescorts.In
addition,therewouldbe376nuclear-tippedcruiseandbomber-launchedmissiles,aswell
asearlyintermediate-rangemissiles.The1959studyalsostatesthatmissiles-thiswas
beforeICBMsweredevelopedinthe1960s-hadsuchalowchanceofdestroyingtheir
targetsthatmannedbomberswouldbetheprimaryweapons.

BecauseSACwassofixedonquicklyknockingoutSovietairpower,H-bombswouldhave
beendroppedtoexplodeonthegroundratherthaninmid-air.Whileairburstswouldhave
producedmoreheatandradiation,thefocusonwasachievingmaximumblastdamageto
destroySovietaircraftandbases,despitesomeunintendedsideeffects."Whilethe
objectionstosurfaceburstandtheprobabilityofradioactivefalloutaffectingfriendlyforces
andpeoplehavebeenconsidered,therequirementtowintheAirPowerBattleis
paramounttoallotherconsiderations,"saidtheSACstudy.

However,SACdefinedtheSovietairpowerinfrastructurequitebroadly,toincludeany
commandandindustrialcentersthatcouldsupportaRussianaircampaign.ThusMoscow
waslistedashavingnumerousmilitarycommandcenters,aircraftandmissilefactories,
atomicweaponslaboratoriesandoilrefineries.

DespitebeingaNuclearAgeforce,SAC'sstrategymoreresembledtheU.S.bomber
offensiveagainstGermanyandJapaninWorldWarIIthantwenty-firstcenturywarfare.
ConcentratingontheSovietairforceanditsinfrastructurewouldhavebeenfamiliargoals
toB-17andB-29commanders(whichwereindeedthepeoplewhoranSACinthe1950s,
includingCurtisLemay).Thoughitalsoseemsaquaintlylong-warstrategy,asifthe
Sovietswerereallygoingtocapableofmass-producingbombersandnuclearweapons
aftertheinitialnuclearexchange.Thebeliefthatmissilesweretoounreliable,andonly
mannedbomberscouldbetrusted,soundsmuchlikethedronevs.mannedaircraftdebate
today.
DidSAC'stargetingstrategymakesense?Thebetterquestionis,whocares?Fortunately
forthehumanrace,weneverhadachancetofindout.

[returntoContents]

#8
RussiaBeyondtheHeadlines/RossiyskayaGazeta
www.rbth.ru
December23,2015
Fromliteraryjamtolivereadings:RecappingtheYearofLiterature
TheYearofLiteratureofferedmuchtoenjoyforwriters,bloggersandsweetloversalike.
RBTHhascollectedallthemostinterestingfactsandfiguresfromthisliterary
extravaganza.
ANASTASIASKORONDAEVA,ROSSIYSKAYAGAZETA

TheceremonyofpassingthebatonfromtheYearofLiteraturetotheYearofCinemawas
heldinSt.PetersburgonDec.14.Alltheattentiononliteraturethisyearhasthrownup
someinterestingstatistics.

1)Thewinnerofanarratingcompetitionheldduringthefestivalbookmarkettookhome55
poundsoffruitandvegetables.Duringthefirstweekendoffall,shelvesfilledwithbooks
wereinterspersedwiththeusualonesholdingproduceatMoscow'sDanilovskyfoodcourt
andmarket.Surprisedshopperswereabletotakehomegoodliteraturealongwiththeir
normalpurchases.

2)Continuingtheculinarytheme,120litersof"literaryjam"wascookedaroundRussia.
ThestaffofRossiyskayaGazetafoundoldrecipesandmadejamoutdoorsinwriters'
estatesfortheentiresummer.TheymadetheplumdessertfromAnnaKareninain
Tolstoy'sYasnayaPolyanaestateinTulaRegionandusedlocalapplesfromSergei
Yesenin'snativevillageofKonstantinovoinRyazanRegiontomakeajamcelebratinghis
birthday.Readmore>>>

3)InDecember,1300peopletook60hourstoreadLeoTolstoy'sWarandPeaceinalive
broadcast.ThreemonthsbeforeNatashaRostovaandAndreiBolkonskytookthestage,
anotherlivereadingproject,ChekhovAlivebyGoogle,sawthegreatplaywright's
charactersbroadcastovertheinternetfor24hoursstraight.

4)FromJune25-28,RedSquarehosteditsfirsteverbookfair,atwhichmorethan500,000
booksfrom300publishinghousesacross50regionsofRussiawerepresented.FromSt.
Basil'sCathedraltotheStateHistoricalMuseumthesquarehosteddiscussions,alibrary,a
writer'sofficeandevenachildren'splayground.Morethan200,000peopleattendedthe
writers'seminars,concertsandtheatricalperformancesthatformedpartoftheyear's
biggestliteraryevent.Readmore>>>

5)Literaturealsocaughtthepublicimaginationawayfromthebig-namefestivals,markets
andawards.SergeiNifashev,astreetcleanerandbloggerfromBlagoveshchensk,
collectedmorethan100rareeditionsinhisbasement,findingallofthemamongthecity's
trash!Whenhewentthroughthebookshefoundoldmoneyandphotos.Ararefindindeed,
andnotonewerecommendtryingtorepeat-therecouldbeallkindsofnastybugslurking
amongthetrash.

AnabridgedversionofthearticlefirstpublishedinRussianbyRossiyskayaGazeta:
http://www.rg.ru/2015/12/14/goda.html

[returntoContents]

#9
Reuters
December23,2015
Ukrainehealthsystemindangerofcollapseasreformsstall
STAIKY,UKRAINE|BYALESSANDRAPRENTICE

PaintisflakingonthedampwallsandcrackedceilingsofthesmallhospitalintheUkrainian
villageofStaikyandmuchoftheequipmentisover30yearsold.
Runninghotwaterisnotguaranteedandthehospital,servingabout2,800peopleinStaiky
andothervillages,hasnotbeenrefurbishedsinceSoviettimes.

Thereisalsolittlehopeofachangeforthebetteramongmedicalstaffwhorelyon
charitabledonations,oftenfromlocalbusinessmen,tobuyevenbasicmedicinesandthe
petrolneededtovisitpatientsinremoteareas.

AreformdrivelaunchedbytheWestern-leaninggovernmentinstalledafterapro-Moscow
president,ViktorYanukovich,wasoverthrowninapopularuprisinglastyearhasbecome
miredinbureaucraticinertia,argumentsandallegationsofcorruption.

"Idon'tknowwhoiswritingandcarryingoutreformsatthetoporiftheyhaveeverbeentoa
villageandseenhowpeopleliveandwithwhatmedicalservices,"saidfamilydoctorNadiya
MartynenkoinStaiky,aclusterofdilapidatedone-storyhousesontheRiverDnieper,an
hour'sdrivefromthecapitalKiev.

Shesaidstatefundscoveronlytheelectricityandmeagerstaffsalaries,andthatoverthe
pastdecade"they'vecuteverythingtheycouldandevenwhattheyshouldn't...it'svery
precarious."

Staikyisfarfromunique.Soviet-erahospitalsacrossthecountryof42millionare
crumbling,underpaymentofmedicalstaffcontinuestofosterasystemofbribe-takingand
Ukraine'spoorvaccinationratehasplaceditonablacklistalongsidesomeoftheworld's
poorestcountries,includingSouthSudan.

CorruptionhasplaguedUkrainesincethecountrygainedindependencefromtheSoviet
Unionin1991.ButunderYanukovich,itbecamemuchworse.

HealthMinisterAlexanderKvitashvili,oneofseveralforeignersappointedtoministerial
positionsinthehopethattheiroutsiderstatusandinternationalexperiencewouldhelp
Ukrainemakegoodonreformpromises,hopedtorecreatesuccessfulreformscarriedout
inhisnativeGeorgia.

Ayearafterhisappointment,thehealthbilloutliningreformsisstuckinparliament.

"It'sfrustrating.Therearevestedinterests-they'reeverywhere...Workingwiththe
parliamentwedifferonwhatabasicunderstandingofreformis,"KvitashvilitoldReuters.

Withoutacompletereboot,"financiallythesystemwillcollapseinaboutayear,ifnotfaster,
becausethereisnowayUkrainecanincreasespendingtoasustainablelevel,"hesaid.

DEMOCRACYSTRUGGLING

ThestalledhealthbillisoneofmanyexamplesoftheslowprogressUkraineismakingin
reformingitseconomy,promptingWesternbackerstoquestionKiev'scommitmentto
endingcrookedpracticesthatpushedthecountrytothebrinkofbankruptcy.

Squabblesinparliamenthaveheldupotherbills.Someofthesearerequiredforthe
disbursementoffundsundera$40-billioninternationalbailoutprogram,andKiev'sWestern
backerswarnthatitsattempttorebuilditselfontransparent,democraticlinesisunder
threat.

Ukraine'sprogresshasalsobeenhamperedbyaconflictintheeastofthecountrybetween
governmentforcesandpro-Russianseparatistsandadeteriorationinrelationswith
Russia,whichannexedtheCrimearegionin2014.

Thehealthministry'sreformswerefinalisedinAprilandbroughttoparliamentforapproval
inJulybutdiscussionshavedraggedon,Kvitashvilisaid.Ashedidso,heturnedoffhis
cellphone,itsringtonesettothethemetunefromTVseriesGameofThrones,inwhich
rivalclansbattleforinfluence.

Partoftheplanfocusesonseparatingtheprocurementanddeliveryofhealthservices,a
systemwhichuntilnowhasallowedmostcontractstobebrokeredinbackroomdealswith
littleexternaloversight.
AccordingtoareportbytheAnticorruptionActionCenter,aUkrainiancivilsociety
organization,onlysixoutof6,500authorizedpharmaceuticalcompaniestookpartinthe
procurementofHIVdrugsinUkrainein2013,sharingamongthemselvesamarketworth
$30.9million.

Thesalariesofdoctorsaretoolowtoeradicatetheuseofbribesbetweenpatientand
practitioner,whichmeansmanyofthehealthindustry'sfinancialdealingsaredoneinthe
shadows.

"YoucanseeheaddoctorsdrivingPorschesandhavingVertuphones,butthehospitalsare
inanabysmalcondition,"Kvitashvilisaid.

The"informal"partofthehealthcareeconomyamountstoabout$7billionperyear-more
thantriplethesizeofthestate'sannualexpenditureonhealth,heestimated.

FrustrationoverthelackofprogresspromptedKvitashvilitotenderhisresignationinthe
summer,onlytohaveitrejectedbyparliament.

Somecommentatorshavesaidhelackstheknow-howtonavigatethewebofallegiances
thatcontinuestobindUkraine'srulingclassdespiteavowedattemptstomoveonfromthe
politicalcronyismofthepast.

"Ibelievehewantsreforms,buthedoesn'ttotallyunderstandtherealityofUkraine-thatif
someonepromisestheirsupportitdoesn'tmeantheywon'ttryandtripyouup,"doctorand
healthcarecommentatorEvgenyKomarovskysaid

AlexandraUstinova,fromtheAnticorruptionActionCenter,alsosaidtherewasaconflictof
interestsinsomeoftheappointmentsattheministry,suchasbringinginalawyerwho
usedtoworkforapharmaceuticalcompanyownedbyamemberofparliamentfrom
PresidentPetroPoroshenko'sparty.

"CATASTROPHE"

GiovannaBarberis,theUkrainerepresentativeoftheUnitedNationsInternationalChildren's
EmergencyFund(UNICEF),said"theobstacles(toreforms)arehugeandsometimesit
looksprettygrimbecausethepaceisextremelyslow."

ThestartofanimmunizationcampaignfollowinganoutbreakofpolioonSept.1was
delayedbyseveralweeks,promptingEllynOgden,worldwidepoliocoordinatorforthe
UnitedStatesAgencyforInternationalDevelopment(USAID),tocriticizethe"highestlevels
ofgovernment"foraninadequateresponse.

Shesaid"noothercountryintheworldisinsuchadiresituationorshowssuchdisregard
forprotectingchildrenagainstchildhooddiseases."

TheGlobalPolioEradicationInitiative,whichisspearheadedbytheWorldHealth
Organization,said:"Forsometime,Ukrainehasbeenacatastrophewaitingtohappen."

Ukrainedidnotbuydrugs,medicinesorvaccinesformostofthisyearasthehealth
ministrysoughttoapproveatemporaryprocurementsystemviainternationalorganizations
tobypassthecompromisedsystemthatKvitashvilihopestoreform.

ThetemporarysystemwasfinalisedinlateOctober,andUkraineplanstobuyaround$100
millionofvaccinesandmedicines,butsevereshortagesremain.

"Therearenoanti-diphtheriavaccinesinthecountry,"healthcarecommentator
Komarovskysaid.

MeanwhilethemoredrasticreformbillislanguishinginparliamentandKvitashvilisayshis
resignationisstillonthetable.

"Wellmyletterisstillthere.Ididnotwithdrawit.WewillseehowtheParliamentwillact,"
hesaidbyemail.

[returntoContents]
Forwardemail

Thisemailwassenttodonald.jensen8@gmail.combydavidjohnson@starpower.net|
RapidremovalwithSafeUnsubscribe|Aboutourserviceprovider.

Johnson'sRussiaList|6368CircleDrive|Chincoteague|VA|23336
 From: RobertNurick<nurickrc@yahoo.com>
Senttime: 12/22/201501:04:38PM
To: RobertOtto<robertotto25@gmail.com>
Subject: Re:FrumonTrump(someinterestingstuffinhere)

Bob:thisisaveryinterestingpiece--andarathersoberingone.Thanks.

Bestwishestoyouandyoursfortheholidays.Let'sgettogethersoonaftertheNewYear.

Bob

From:RobertOtto<robertotto25@gmail.com>
To:RobertNurick<nurickrc@yahoo.com>
Sent:Tuesday,December22,201512:27PM
Subject:FrumonTrump(someinterestingstuffinhere)

http://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2016/01/the-great-republican-revolt/419118/

TheGreatRepublicanRevolt

TheangriestandmostpessimisticpeopleinAmericaarentthehipsterprotesterswhoflittedinandoutof
OccupyWallStreet.Theyarentthehashtavistsof#BlackLivesMatter.TheyarenttheremnantsoftheAmerican
labormovementorthesavvyyoungdreamerswhoconfrontpoliticianswiththeirAmericanaccentsandun-
Americanlegalstatus.
TheangriestandmostpessimisticpeopleinAmericaarethepeopleweusedtocallMiddleAmericans.Middle-
classandmiddle-agednotrichandnotpoorpeoplewhoareirkedwhenaskedtopress1forEnglish,andwho
wonderhowwhitemalebecameanaccusationratherthanadescription.
Youcanmeasuretheirpessimisminpollsthataskabouttheirexpectationsfortheirlivesandforthoseoftheir
children.Onbothcounts,whiteswithoutacollegedegreeexpressthebleakestview.Youcanseetheeffectsof
theirdespairinthenewstatisticsdescribinghorrifyingratesofsuicideandsubstance-abusefatalityamongthis
samegroup,inmiddleage.
WhiteMiddleAmericansexpressheavymistrustofeveryinstitutioninAmericansociety:notonlygovernment,
butcorporations,unions,eventhepoliticalpartytheytypicallyvotefortheRepublicanPartyofRomney,Ryan,
andMcConnell,whichtheydespiseasasadcrewofweaklingsandsellouts.Theyarepissedoff.Andwhen
DonaldTrumpcamealong,theywerethepeoplewhotoldthepollsters,Thatsmyguy.
Theyarentnecessarilysuperconservative.Theyoftendontthinkinideologicaltermsatall.Buttheydo
stronglyfeelthatlifeinthiscountryusedtobebetterforpeoplelikethemandtheywantthatoldercountry
back.
Youhearfrompeopleliketheminmanyotherdemocraticcountriestoo.AcrossEurope,populistpartiesare
deliveringamessagethatcombinesdefenseofthewelfarestatewithskepticismaboutimmigrationthat
denouncesthecorruptionofparliamentarydemocracyandalsotherisksofglobalcapitalism.Someofthese
partieshavealeftishflavor,likeItalysFiveStarMovement.Somearerootedtotherightofcenter,liketheU.K.
IndependenceParty.Somedescendfromneofascists,likeFrancesNationalFront.OtherstracetheirDNAto
Communistparties,likeSlovakiasgoverningDirectionSocialDemocracy.
ThesepopulistsseektodefendwhattheFrenchcallacquiredrightshealthcare,pensions,andother
programsthatbenefitolderpeopleagainstbankersandtechnocratswhoendlesslydemandausterityagainst
migrantswhomakenewclaimsandchallengeaccustomedwaysagainstaglobalizedmarketthatdepresses
wagesandbenefits.IntheUnitedStates,theyleanRepublicanbecausetheyfeartheDemocratswanttotake
fromthemandredistributetoAmericanswhoarenewer,poorer,andintheirviewlessdeservingtospreadthe
wealtharound,incandidateBarackObamaswordstoJoethePlumberbackin2008.Yettheyhavecometo
fearmoreandmorestronglythattheirpartydoesnothavetheirbestinterestsatheart.
AmajorityofRepublicansworrythatcorporationsandthewealthyexerttoomuchpower.Theirpartyleaders
worktoensurethatthesesamegroupscanexertevenmore.MainstreamRepublicanswerequiteateasewith
taxincreasesonhouseholdsearningmorethan$250,000intheaftermathoftheGreatRecessionandthe
subsequentstimulus.Theircongressionalrepresentativeshadtheoppositepriorities.In2008,manyRepublican
primaryvotershadagreedwithformerArkansasGovernorMikeHuckabee,whowantedtheirnextpresidentto
remindthemoftheguytheyworkwith,nottheguywholaidthemoff.ButthoseRepublicansdidnotcountfor
muchoncetheprimariesended,andnormalpoliticsresumedbetweenthemulticulturalDemocratsanda
plutocraticGOP.
Thisyear,theyarecountingformore.Theirrebellionagainstthepoweroforganizedmoneyhasupended
Americanpoliticsinwaysthatmayreverberateforalongtime.Tounderstandwhatmaycomenext,wemustfirst
reviewtherecentpast.

BenCarsonatatown-hallmeetingattheUniversityofNewHampshire.Throughoutthisstory,GOPcandidates
areshownonthestumpintheGraniteStatelastsummerandfall,inphotographsshotforTheAtlanticandNew
Hampshiremagazine.(MarkOstow/NewHampshiremagazine/TheAtlantic)
Notsolongago,manyobserversworriedthatAmericanshadlostinterestinpolitics.InhisfamousbookBowling
Alone,publishedin2000,thesocialscientistRobertPutnambemoanedthecollapseinAmericanpolitical
participationduringthesecondhalfofthe20thcentury.Putnamsuggestedthatthistrendwouldcontinueasthe
WorldWarIIgenerationgavewaytodisengagedGenXers.
ButevenasPutnamsbookwentintopaperback,thatnotionwasfallingbehindthetimes.Inthe1996
presidentialelection,voterturnouthadtumbledtothelowestlevelsincethe1920s,lessthan52percent.
TurnoutroseslightlyinNovember2000.Then,suddenly:overdrive.Inthepresidentialelectionsof2004and
2008,voterturnoutspikedtolevelsnotseensincebeforethevotingagewasloweredto18,andin2012it
dippedonlyalittle.Voterswereexcitedbyahailstormofdivisiveevents:thedot-combust,theBush-versus-
Gorerecount,the9/11terroristattacks,theIraqWar,thefinancialcrisis,thebailoutsandstimulus,andthe
AffordableCareAct.
PutnamwasrightthatAmericanswereturningawayfromtraditionalsourcesofinformation.Butthatwas
becausetheywereturningtonewones:firstcablenewschannelsandpartisanpoliticaldocumentariesthen
blogsandnewsaggregatorsliketheDrudgeReportandTheHuffingtonPostafterthat,andmostdecisively,
socialmedia.

PoliticswasbecomingmorecentraltoAmericansidentitiesinthe21stcenturythaniteverwasinthe20th.
Wouldyoubeupsetifyourchildmarriedasupporterofadifferentpartyfromyourown?In1960,only5percent
ofAmericanssaidyes.In2010,athirdofDemocratsandhalfofRepublicansdid.Politicalidentityhasbecome
socentralbecauseithascometooverlapwithsomanyotheraspectsofidentity:race,religion,lifestyle.In
1960,Iwouldnthavelearnedmuchaboutyourpoliticsifyoutoldmethatyouhunted.Today,thathobby
stronglysuggestsRepublicanloyalty.Unmarried?In1960,thatindicatedlittle.Today,itpredictsthatyourea
Democrat,especiallyifyourealsoawoman.
Meanwhile,thedividinglinethatusedtobethemostcrucialofthemallclasshasincreasinglybecomea
divisionwithintheparties,notbetweenthem.Since1984,nearlyeveryDemocraticpresidential-primaryrace
hasendedasacontestbetweenawinetrackcandidatewhoappealedtoprofessionals(GaryHart,Michael
Dukakis,PaulTsongas,BillBradley,andBarackObama)andabeertrackcandidatewhomobilizedthe
remainsoftheoldindustrialworkingclass(WalterMondale,DickGephardt,BillClinton,AlGore,andHillary
Clinton).TheRepublicanshavetheirequivalentinthebattlesbetweenWallStreetandMainStreet
candidates.Untilthisdecade,however,bothpartiesandespeciallythehistoricallymorecohesiveRepublicans
managedtokeepsufficientclasspeacetopreservepartyunity.
Notanymore,atleastnotfortheRepublicans.
TheGreatRecessionendedinthesummerof2009.Sincethen,theU.S.economyhasbeengrowing,butmost
incomeshavenotgrowncomparably.In2014,realmedianhouseholdincomeremainedalmost$4,000below
thepre-recessionlevel,andwellbelowthelevelin1999.Thecountryhasrecoveredfromtheworsteconomic
disastersincetheGreatDepression.Mostofitspeoplehavenot.ManyRepublicanshaventsharedinthe
recoveryandcontinuedupwardflightoftheirmoreaffluentfellowpartisans.
ItwasthesepessimisticRepublicanswhopoweredtheTeaPartymovementof2009and2010.Theywerenot,
asarule,libertarianslookingforanultraminimalgovernment.ThecloseststudywehaveofthebeliefsofTea
Partysupporters,ledbyThedaSkocpol,aHarvardpoliticalscientist,foundthatTeaPartiersjudgeentitlement
programsnotintermsofabstractfree-marketorthodoxy,butaccordingtotheperceiveddeservingnessof
recipients.ThedistinctionbetweenworkersandpeoplewhodontworkisfundamentaltoTeaPartyideology.

MarcoRubioatatown-hallmeetingattheWolfeboroInninWolfeboroonOctober7.(MarkOstow/New
Hampshiremagazine/TheAtlantic)
ItsuncertainwhetheranyTeaPartiereverreallycarriedaplacardthatreadkeepyourgovernmenthandsoff
mymedicare.Butifso,thatpersonwasntspoutinggibberish.TheObamaadministrationhadlaidhandson
Medicare.Ithopedtosqueeze$500billionoutoftheprogramfrom2010to2020tofinancehealthinsurancefor
theuninsured.Youdidnthavetolookupthefigurestohaveasensethatmanyoftheuninsuredwere
noncitizens(20percent),orthatevenmorewereforeign-born(27percent).IntheTeaPartysangrytown-hall
meetings,thisissueresonatedperhapsmoreloudlythananyothertheultimateexampleofredistributionfrom
adeservingustoanundeservingthem.
YetevenastheRepublicanMainStreetprotestedObamacare,itrejectedthehardeningideologicalorthodoxy
ofRepublicandonorsandelectedofficials.AsubstantialminorityofRepublicansalmost30percentsaidthey
wouldwelcomeheavytaxesonthewealthy,accordingtoGallup.WithinthepartythatmadePaulRyans
entitlement-slashingbudgetplanacenterpieceofpolicy,only21percentfavoredcutsinMedicareandonly17
percentwantedtoseespendingonSocialSecurityreduced,accordingtoPew.Lessthanathirdofordinary
Republicanssupportedapathwaytocitizenshipforillegalimmigrants(againaccordingtoPew)amajority,by
contrast,favoredstepped-updeportation.
Asaclass,bigRepublicandonorscouldnotseeanyofthis,orwouldnot.Soneitherdidthepoliticianswho
dependuponthem.Againstallevidence,bothgroupsinterpretedtheTeaPartyasamassmovementinfavorof
theagendaoftheWallStreetJournaleditorialpage.Oneofthemoredangerouspleasuresofgreatwealthis
thatyouneverhavetohearanyonetellyouthatyouarecompletelywrong.

JebBushonhiscampaignbusinRyeonNovember3.(MarkOstow/NewHampshiremagazine/TheAtlantic)
ItwasmittromneywhogotthefirstpostTeaPartypresidentialnomination,andheranonaplatformof
ConservatismClassic:taxcuts,budgetcuts,deregulation,freetradealllightlyseasonedwithsome
concessionstothebaseregardingstricterimmigrationenforcement.Therankandfiledidnotlikeit.Butthey
couldnotstopit.ThebasekeptelevatingnotRomneysintofirstplace,andeachrapidlyfailedorfizzled
Romney,supportedbyacumulativetotalof$139millioninprimaryfundsbyMarch2012,trundledon.
Romneyultimatelylostthepresidentialelection,ofcourse,tothesurpriseanddismayofapartyeliteconfident
ofvictoryuntiltheveryend.Onemighthaveexpectedthisshocktoforcearethink.TheRepublicanshadnow
lostfouroutofthepastsixpresidentialelections.AnotherelectionhadbeenwononlyintheElectoralCollege,
despitethelossofthepopularvote.Eventheirbestshowing,50.7percentofthevotein2004,representedthe
closestescapeofanyincumbentpresidentwhowonreelectionsincethefirstrecordedpopularvote.
Andyet,withinhoursofRomneysdefeat,Republicandonors,talkers,andofficialsconvergedonthemaximally
self-exculpatingexplanation.TheproblemhadnotbeentheplantophaseoutMedicareforpeopleyounger
than55.Orthelackofideasabouthowtoraisewages.Orthecommitmenttoendinghealth-insurance
coverageformillionsofworking-ageAmericans.Ortheanthemstowealthcreationandentrepreneurshipina
countryincreasinglyskepticalofboth.No,theproblemwastheoneelementofRomneysmessagetheyhad
neverlikedanyway:immigrationenforcement.
Ownersofcapitalassets,employersoflow-skilllaborers,andhighlycompensatedprofessionalstendtobenefit
economicallyfromthearrivalofimmigrants.Theyarebetterpositionedtoenjoytheattractiveculturalandsocial
resultsofmigration(more-interestingfood!)andtoprotectthemselvesagainsttheburdensomeimpacts(surges
innon-English-proficientpupilsinpublicschools).Apro-immigrationpolicyshiftwasonemoreassertionofclass
interestinapartyprogramalreadybrimfulofthem.
NobodyexpressedthepartyelitesconsensusviewmoreassuredlythanCharlesKrauthammer.Ignorethe
trimmers,hewroteinhisfirstpostelectioncolumn.Theresnoneedforradicalchange.Theotherpartythinks
itownsthedemographicfuturecounterthatinonestrokebyfixingtheLatinoproblem.Donot,however,
abandonthepartysphilosophicalanchorNoreinventionwhennoneisneeded.
Wevegottagetridoftheimmigrationissuealtogether,SeanHannitytoldhisradioaudiencethedayafterthe
election.Itssimpleformetofixit.Ithinkyoucontroltheborderfirst,youcreateapathwayforthosepeople
thatarehere,youdontsay,Yougottagohome.AndthatisapositionthatIveevolvedon.
Aco-ownerofFoxNewsKrauthammerandHannitysTVnetworkagreed:Musthavesweeping,generous
immigrationreform,tweetedRupertMurdochonNovember7,2012.Itwouldbeinhumanetosendthose
peopleback,tosend12millionpeopleoutofthiscountry,thecasinomogulandRepublicandonorSheldon
AdelsontoldTheWallStreetJournalinDecemberofthatyear.Wevegottofindaway,findaroute,forthose
peopletogetlegalcitizenship.TheRepublicanNationalCommitteemadeitallofficialinaMarch2013
postelectionreportsignedbypartyeminences.Thereportgenerallyavoidedpolicyrecommendations,witha
notableexception:Wemustembraceandchampioncomprehensiveimmigrationreform.Toadvancethe
cause,PaulSinger,oneofthemostopen-pocketedGOPdonors,madeasix-figurecontributiontotheNational
ImmigrationForumthatspring.
IfallofthissoundslikeaprescriptionforaJebBushcandidacyforpresidentwell,perhapsthatwasnotan
entirelyunintendedconsequence.
AlmostassoonasthenewCongressconvenedin2013,SenateRepublicansworkedtostrikeadealover
immigrationissues.AbipartisanGangofEight,includingFloridasambitiousyoungMarcoRubio,agreedona
planthatwouldcreateapathtocitizenshipformillionsofillegalimmigrantsandsubstantiallyincreaselegal-
immigrationlimitsforbothhigh-andlow-skilledworkers.Otherwise,thepartyyieldedonnothinganddoubled
downoneverything.NoU-turns.Nocompromises.

TedCruzataPracticalFederalismforumatSouthernNewHampshireUniversity,inHooksett,onOctober3.
(MarkOstow/NewHampshiremagazine/TheAtlantic)
Thenewstrategysoonprovedatotalandutterfailure.GeorgeW.Bushstaxcutsforhighearnersexpiredin
2013,andRepublicanscouldnotrenewthem.Thedrivetocutthedeficitendedinbudgetsequestration,whose
harshesteffectfellonthemilitary.TheGangofEightdealnevercametoavoteintheHouse.Allthewhile,
Republicansapprovalratingsslippedandslid.InsteadofholdingontotheirbaseandaddingHispanics,
Republicansalienatedtheirbaseinreturnfornogainsatall.Bymid-2015,amajorityofself-identified
Republicansdisapprovedoftheirpartyscongressionalleadershipanintensityofdisapprovalneverseenby
theRepublicanmajorityofthe1990snorbyDemocratsduringtheirtimeinthemajorityafterthe2006midterm
elections.
Infact,disapprovalhadflaredintoanoutrightrevoltoftheRepublicanbaseinthesummerof2014.House
MajorityLeaderEricCantor,theNo.2manintheRepublicancaucus,hademergedasaleaderofthenewline
onimmigration.UpforreelectioninVirginiasSeventhDistrict,Cantorwaschallengedthatyearbya
conservativeChristianprofessorofeconomics,DaveBrat.DuringObamasfirstterm,TeaPartyinsurgentshad
toppledincumbentsanddefeatedpartyfavoritesinprimariesfromDelawaretoNevada.Thosechallengeshad
endedbadlyinthegeneralelection,forthemostpart:TeaPartyRepublicanslostatleastfiveSenateseatsthat
mightplausiblyhavebeenwon.Partyleadersbelievedthelessonhadbeenlearnedandexpectedtheirvoters
tobemoretractableinfutureelections.
CantorslosstoBratjoltedHouseleaders.Immigrationreformslippedofftheiragenda.MarcoRubiorepudiated
hisowndeal.ButRepublicanelitesoutsideCongressdidnotgetthemessage.TheyrationalizedCantors
defeatasafreakevent,thesadconsequenceofanationallymindedpoliticiansneglectofhisdistrict.They
continuedtofillthecoffersofJebBushand,toalesserextent,RubioandScottWalker,allreliablepurveyorsof
ConservatismClassic.LastFebruary,threeofthepartysmostimportantmoneymenthefast-foodexecutive
AndrewPuzder,thehealth-careinvestorMikeFernandez,andthenationalfinancechairofMittRomneys2012
campaign,SpencerZwickpubliclyurgedtheGOPtopushaheadtowardmore-openimmigration.America
shouldbeadestinationforhardworkingimmigrantsfromallovertheworld,saidPuzder,anadvocateof
importingmorelow-skilledlaborerstomeettheneedsofhishigh-turnoverindustry.Zwicksaidthatany
presidentialcandidatewhowantedtobetakenseriouslyhadbetterbeinasimilarplacetoJebBushonthe
immigrationissue.
MaybeitwasnotagoodideaforJebBushsalliestodescribehisfund-raisingstrategyasshockandawe.
PerhapstheIraqWarreferencestirredpainfulmemories,evenamongRepublicans.Still,Bushsfund-raising
genuinelyinspiredawe.Inhisfinancialdisclosureforthesecondquarterof2015,Bushreportedraising$11.4
millionforhisformalcampaignandanother$103millionforhissuperPAC.Thesefundswereprovidedbya
relativelysmallnumberofverywealthypeople.OfBushspresidential-campaigndollars,only3percentarrived
inamountsof$200orless.Almost82percentarrivedinthemaximumincrementof$2,700.Nearly80percentof
Bushssuper-PACtakearrivedinincrementsof$25,000ormoreaboutaquarterofthehaulwasmadeupof
donationsof$1millionormore.
Yetseldominthehistoryoffund-raisinghassomuchboughtsolittle,sofleetingly.BetweenDecember2014
andSeptember2015,JebBushplungedfromfirstplaceintheRepublicanfieldtofifth.BetweenlateSeptember
andmid-October,hepurchased60percentofallpoliticalspotsairedinNewHampshire.Thatadbarrage
pushedhispollnumbersinthestatefromabout9percenttoabout8percent.

ChrisChristieatthe2015NewHampshireEducationSummitinLondonerryonAugust19.(MarkOstow/New
Hampshiremagazine/TheAtlantic)
AsthegovernorofFlorida,Bushhadcuttaxesandbalancedbudgets.Hedchallengedunionsandchampioned
charterschools.Atthesametime,Bushpassionatelysupportedimmigrationliberalization.Thecentraleventin
hislifehistorywashisreinventionasanhonoraryLatinoAmericanwhenhemarriedaMexicanwoman,Columba
GarnicadeGallo.HespokeSpanishathome.HeconvertedtoCatholicism.HesoughthisfortunewithaCuban
Americanbusinesspartner.Inhismostquotablephrase,hedescribedillegalimmigrationasanactoflove.
BushsupdateofConservatismClassichadmadehimahitwiththepartysbigdonors.Hehadwonaccolades
fromKarlRove(thedeepestthinkeronourside)andArthurBrooks,thepresidentoftheAmericanEnterprise
Institute(atop-drawerintellect).YetwithinfiveweeksofhisformaldeclarationofcandidacyonJune15,Bushs
campaignhadbeenbrutallyrejectedbytheGOPrankandfile.
FromJupiterIsland,Florida,toGreenwich,ConnecticutfromDallassHighlandParktoSeaIsland,Georgia
fromFifthAvenueinManhattantoCaliforniasNewportBeach,thebaffledquestionresounded:Whatwent
wrong?
Big-dollarRepublicanfavoriteshaverunintotroublebefore,ofcourse.RudyGiulianiimplodedin200708Mitt
Romneys2012nominationwasknockedoffcourseasRepublicansworkedtheirwaythroughaseriesof
alternativefront-runners:RickPerry,HermanCain,NewtGingrich,andfinallyRickSantorum.ButGiulianilost
groundtotworivalsequallyacceptabletothedonorelite,ornearlyso:MittRomneyandJohnMcCain.In2011
12,thelongestanyofthenotRomneysremainedinfirstplacewassixweeks.Inbothcycles,resistancetothe
partyfavoritewasconcentratedamongsocialandreligiousconservatives.
Themutinyofthe2016electioncyclehasbeendifferent.Bythefallof2015,amajorityofRepublicansfavored
candidateswhohadneverbeenelectedtoanything:DonaldTrump,BenCarson,andCarlyFiorina.Fiorinas
campaignwasperhapsnotsounusual.AformerCEO,sheappealedtothesamebusiness-mindedRepublicans
whomighthavevotedforRomneyin2012.Carsonappealedtothesamereligiousconservativesthat
candidateslikeMikeHuckabeeandSantorumhadappealedtoinpriorpresidentialcycles.Whatwasnewand
astonishingwastheTrumpboom.Hejettisonedpartyorthodoxyonissuesrangingfromentitlementspendingto
foreignpolicy.Hescoffedattradeagreements.HesaidrudethingsaboutSheldonAdelsonandtheKoch
brothers.Hereviledthecampaigncontributionsofbigdonorshimselfincluded!asopenandblatantfavor-
buying.TrumpssurgewasadecisiverepudiationbymillionsofRepublicanvotersofthecollectivewisdomof
theirpartyelite.
WhenTrumpfirsteruptedintotheRepublicanraceinJune,hedidsowithamessageofgrimpessimism.We
got$18trillionindebt.WegotnothingbutproblemsWeredying.Weredying.WeneedmoneyWehave
losers.Wehavepeoplethatdonthaveit.Wehavepeoplethataremorallycorrupt.Wehavepeoplethatare
sellingthiscountrydownthedrainTheAmericandreamisdead.
ThatmessagedidnotresonatewiththosewhodriddentheS&P500fromlessthan900in2009tomorethan
2,000in2015.Butitfoundanaudienceallthesame.HalfofTrumpssupporterswithintheGOPhadstopped
theireducationatorbeforehigh-schoolgraduation,accordingtothepollingfirmYouGov.Only19percenthad
acollegeorpostcollegedegree.Thirty-eightpercentearnedlessthan$50,000.Only11percentearnedmore
than$100,000.
TrumpRepublicanswerenotideologicallymilitant.Just13percentsaidtheywereveryconservative19percent
describedthemselvesasmoderate.NorweretheyhighlyreligiousbyRepublicanstandards.

Left:CarlyFiorinaonafactorytouratRapidSheetMetalinNashuaonOctober5.Right:MikeHuckabeeat
formerMassachusettsSenatorScottBrownsBackyardNoBSBBQinRyeonOctober16.(MarkOstow/New
Hampshiremagazine/TheAtlantic)
WhatsetthemapartfromotherRepublicanswastheireconomicinsecurityandtheintensityoftheireconomic
nationalism.Sixty-threepercentofTrumpsupporterswishedtoendbirthrightcitizenshipforthechildrenof
illegalimmigrantsbornonU.S.soiladozenpointshigherthanthenormforallRepublicans.Morethanother
Republicans,TrumpsupportersdistrustedBarackObamaasalienanddangerous:Only21percent
acknowledgedthatthepresidentwasbornintheUnitedStates,accordingtoanAugustsurveybythe
Democratic-orientedpollingfirmPPP.Sixty-sixpercentbelievedthepresidentwasaMuslim.
Trumppromisedtoprotectthesevoterspensionsfromtheirownpartysausterity.WevegotSocialSecurity
thatsgoingtobedestroyedifsomebodylikemedoesntbringmoneyintothecountry.Alltheseotherpeople
wanttocutthehelloutofit.ImnotgoingtocutitatallImgoingtobringmoneyin,andweregoingtosaveit.
HepromisedtoprotecttheirchildrenfrombeingdrawnintoanotherwarintheMiddleEast,thistimeinSyria.If
weregoingtohaveWorldWarIII,hetoldTheWashingtonPostinOctober,itsnotgoingtobeoverSyria.As
forthepoliticiansthreateningtoshootdowntheRussianjetsflyingmissionsinSyria,Iwontevencallthem
hawks.Icallthemthefools.
HepromisedacampaignindependentoftheinfluencesofmoneythathadswayedsomanyRepublicanracesof
thepast.Iwilltellyouthatoursystemisbroken.Igavetomanypeople.Beforethis,beforetwomonthsago,I
wasabusinessman.Igivetoeverybody.Whentheycall,Igive.Andyouknowwhat?WhenIneedsomething
fromthem,twoyearslater,threeyearslater,Icallthem.Theyarethereforme.Andthatsabrokensystem.
HepromisedabovealltoprotecttheirwagesfrombeingundercutbyRepublicanimmigrationpolicy.

Left:RandPaulatameetandgreetatMaryAnnsDinerinWindhamonJuly26.Right:JohnKasichatatown-
hallmeetingintheVeteransofForeignWarsbuildinginDerryonAugust12.(MarkOstow/NewHampshire
magazine/TheAtlantic)
Itcannotlast,canit?Thecasinodoesnotalwayswin,StuartStevens,MittRomneysleadstrategistduringthe
2012campaign,quippedtomeinSeptember.Butthatsthewaytobet.Thecasinowonin2012,andwillvery
likelywinagainin2016.
Andyetalready,Trumphasdestroyedoneelite-favoredpresidentialcandidacy,ScottWalkers,andcrippledtwo
others,JebBushsandChrisChristies.Hehasthrownintodisarraythepartyspost-2012comebackstrategy,
andpulledintothecenterofnationaldiscussionissuesandconstituencieslongrelegatedtothemargins.
SomethinghaschangedinAmericanpoliticssincetheGreatRecession.Theoldslogansringhollow.The
insurgentcandidatesarelessabsurd,theorthodoxcandidatesmorevulnerable.TheGOPdonoreliteplanned
adynasticrestorationin2016.Instead,ittriggeredaninternalclasswar.
Thecontestforthepresidencyturnsonexternaleventsasmuchasormorethaninternalpartypolitics.
GeorgeW.Bushsteambelievedthatthelast-minuterevelationofa1976drunk-drivingarrestcosthimthe
popularvoteinthe2000election.JimmyCarterblamedhis1980defeatonthedebacleoftheattemptedrescue
ofAmericanhostagesinIran.Soanythingcanhappen.Butthatdoesnotmeananythingwillhappen.Barring
shocks,presidentialelectionsturnonthefundamentalsofeconomics,demography,andideology.
ThepuzzleforthemoniedleadersoftheRepublicanPartyis:Whatnow?Andwhatnextafterthat?Noneofthe
optionsfacingtheGOPeliteisentirelycongenial.Butthereappeartobefourpathstheelitecouldfollow,for
thiscampaignseasonandbeyond.Theyleadthepartyinverydifferentdirections.

Option1:DoubleDown
ThepremiseofthepastfewthousandwordsisthattheRepublicandonorelitefailedtoimposeitspreferred
candidateonanunwillingbasein2015forbigandimportantreasons.Butmaybethatpremiseiswrong.Maybe
JebBushhasjustbeenabadcandidatewitharadioactivelastname.Maybethesamemessageandplatform
wouldhaveworkedfineifespousedbyafresherandliveliercandidate.SuchisthetheoryofMarcoRubios
campaign.Orevenifthedonormessageandplatformhavetroublesmaybe$100millioninnegativeadscan
scorchanypotentialalternative,enablingthedonor-backedcandidatetowinbydefault.
AndifnotRubio,maybethecoredonormessagecouldstillworkifjoinedtoatrueoutsidercandidacy:Ben
Carsons,forexample.Carsonisoftenregardedasaprotestcandidate,butasTheWeeklyStandardsFred
BarnesenthusedbackinJanuary2015:OnethingnotindoubtisCarsonsconservatism.Hestherealdeal,an
economic,social,andforeignpolicyconservative.Carsonmaysaywackythings,buthedoesnotsay
heterodoxthings.
YeteveniftheRepublicandonorelitecankeepcontrolofthepartywhiledoublingdown,itsdoubtfulthatthe
tacticcanultimatelywinpresidentialelections.Thechangenothingbutimmigrationadvicewasaself-flattering
fantasyfromthestart.ImmigrationisnotthemainreasonRepublicanpresidentialcandidateslosesobadly
amongLatinoandAsianAmericanvoters,andneverwas:Latinovotersaremorelikelytolisteducationand
healthcareasissuesthatareextremelyimportanttothem.AmajorityofAsianAmericansarenon-Christianand
susceptibletoexclusionbysectarianreligiousthemes.
So

Option2:TacticalConcession
Perhapssomeconcessiontothedisgruntledbaseisneeded.ThatsthetheoryoftheCruzcampaignand
afteracoursecorrectionalsooftheChristiecampaign.Insteadof2013sConservatismClassicPlus
ImmigrationLiberalization,CruzandChristieareurgingConservatismClassicPlusImmigrationEnforcement.
True,Cruzscarefullyselectedwordsonimmigrationleaveopenthepossibilityofguest-workerprogramsor
otherpro-employerreformsafteraburstofborderenforcement.ButCruzandChristiehaveseenthereaction
toDonaldTrumpsmessage,andappeartoappreciatetheneedtoatleastseemtodosomethingtoredress
thegrievancesoftheRepublicanbase.
MuchofthedonorelitecouldlikelybeconvincedthatwhileJebBushsideaofimmigrationreformwouldbe
goodtohave,itisntamust-have.Justasthepartyelitereachedapactonabortionwithsocialconservativesin
the1980s,itcouldconcedetheimmigrationissuetoitsMainStreetbaseinthe2010s.
YetanarrowfocusonimmigrationpopulismaloneseemsinsufficienttoraiseRepublicanhopes.Trumpshrewdly
joinshisimmigrationpopulismtotradepopulism.OntheDemocraticside,BernieSanderssoppositiontoopen
bordersislogicallyconnectedtohishopesforaDemocraticSocialistfuture:HisadmiredDenmarkupholdshigh
laborstandardsalongwithsomeoftheworldstoughestimmigrationrules.Severedfromalargeragenda,
howeverasMittRomneytriedtosevertheissuein2012immigrationpopulismlooksatbestlikepandering,
andatworstlikeidentitypoliticsforwhitevoters.Inasocietythatisandalwayshasbeenmultiethnicand
polyglot,anynationalpartymustcompetemorebroadlythanthat.
Whichbringsusto

Option3:TrueReform
Admittedly,thismaybethemostuncongenialthoughtofthemall,butpartyelitescouldtrytoopenmore
ideologicalspacefortheeconomicinterestsofthemiddleclass.Makepeacewithuniversalhealth-insurance
coverage:MendObamacareratherthanendit.Cuttaxeslessatthetop,andusethemoneytodelivermore
benefitstoworkingfamiliesinthemiddle.Deviseimmigrationpolicytosupportwages,notundercutthem.Worry
moreaboutregulationsthatartificiallytransferwealthupward,andlessaboutregulationsthatconstrainfinancial
speculation.Takeseriouslyissuessuchasthelengthofcommutes,nursing-homecosts,andtheanticompetitive
practicesthatinflatecollegetuition.RememberthatRepublicanvoterscaremoreaboutaligninggovernment
withtheirvaluesofworkandfamilythantheycareaboutcuttingthesizeofgovernmentasanendinitself.
Recognizethatthegimmickofmobilizingthebasewithculture-waroutragesstoppedworkingatleastadecade
ago.

Left:RickSantorumatMurphysDinerinManchesteronJuly25.Center:LindseyGrahamattheMilfordLabor
DayparadeonSeptember7.Right:GeorgePatakiattheGraniteStateBrewersAssociationSummerfestat
ArmsPark,inManchester,onJuly25.(MarkOstow/NewHampshiremagazine/TheAtlantic)
Suchapartywouldcuthealth-carecostsbysqueezingproviders,notyoungbeneficiaries.Itwouldboost
productivitybyinvestinginhardinfrastructurebridges,airports,water-treatmentplants.ItwouldrestoreDwight
EisenhowertotheRepublicanpantheonalongsideRonaldReaganandemphasizethecenterincenter-right.
Toimaginethechangeistoseehowconvulsiveitwouldbeandhowunlikely.True,center-rightconservative
partiesbackedbybroadmultiethniccoalitionsofthemiddleclasshavegainedandexercisedpowerinother
English-speakingcountries,evenasRepublicanslostthepresidencyin2008and2012.Butthemost-influential
voicesinAmericanconservatismrejecttheexperienceoftheirforeigncounterpartsasweak,unprincipled,and
unnecessary.Inparliamentarydemocracy,winningorlosingisstarklybinary:Apartyeitherisinpoweroristhe
opposition.IntheAmericansystem,thatbinaryismuchblurrier.Republicanscan,ofcourse,exertsomecontrol
overgovernmentaslongastheyholdanyoneoftheHouse,Senate,orpresidency.
Whichbringsusfinallyto

Option4:ChangetheRulesoftheGame
Thefilibusterusedtobebad.Nowitsgood.SoFredThompson,thelateactorandformerRepublican
senator,jokinglytoldanaudienceonaNationalReviewcruiseshortlyafterBarackObamawonthepresidency
forthefirsttime.Howpartisansfeelaboutprocessissuesisnotoriouslyrelatedtowhatprocesswouldbenefit
thematanygivenmoment.LiberalslovedtheinterventionistSupremeCourtinthe1960sand70s,hateditin
the1990sand2000sandmayrotatetheiropinionagainifaPresidentHillaryClintoncantiltamajorityofthe
SupremeCourttheirway.ItsanoldstorythatmayfindanewtwistifandwhenRepublicansacknowledgethat
thepresidencymaybeattainableonlyaftertheymakepolicychangesthatareunacceptabletothepartyelite.
Therearemetrics,afterall,bywhichthepost-2009GOPappearstobeasupremelysuccessfulpoliticalparty.
Recently,RoryCooper,ofthecommunicationsfirmPurpleStrategies,talliedanetgaintotheRepublicansof69
seatsintheHouseofRepresentatives,13seatsintheSenate,900-plusseatsinstatelegislatures,and12
governorshipssinceObamatookoffice.Withthatkindofgriponstategovernment,inparticular,Republicans
arewellpositionedtowriteelectionandvotingrulesthatsustaintheirholdonthenationallegislature.The
presidentmaybeabletograntformerlyillegalimmigrantstherighttowork,buthecannotgrantthemtherightto
vote.Inthislight,insteadofrevisingRepublicanpoliciestostopfutureBarackObamasandHillaryClintons,
maybeitsnecessarytoreviseonlythepartyrulestostopfutureDonaldTrumpsfromconfrontingpartyelites
withtheirownunpopularity.
TheinauguralissueofTheWeeklyStandard,theconservativemagazinelaunchedin1995,depictedthen
SpeakeroftheHouseNewtGingrichswingingintoaction,asubmachinegunblazinginhislefthand,underthe
headlinePermanentOffense.Butthatwasthen.Maybethemorenaturalconditionofconservativepartiesis
permanentdefenseandwherebettertowagealong,grindingdefensivecampaignthaninCongressandthe
statehouses?Maybethepresidencyitselfshouldberegardedasoneofthosethingsthatisgoodtohavebut
notamust-have,especiallyifobtainingitrequiresuncomfortablechange.
Whathappenstoanelitewhosefollowerswithdrawtheirassent?Doesitself-examine?Ordoesittakerefugein
denial?Doesitchange?Ordoesittrytopreventchange?Doesitchallengeitselftobuildanewpolitical
majority?OrdoesitseizetheopportunitiestheAmericanpoliticalsystemofferstocompactandpurposeful
minorities?Whenitsoldanswersfail,willitthinkanew?Orwillitsimplyrepeatlouderthedogmasthatenthralled
supportersinthepast?Americanslovethecrushofcompetition,thehard-foughtstruggle,thelong-slogging
race.ButmuchmorethanthepunditsWhowillwin?,itisthesedeeperquestionsfromtheelectionof2016
thatwillshapethefutureofAmericanpolitics.
 From: RobertOtto<robertotto25@gmail.com>
Senttime: 12/22/201509:27:59AM
To: RobertNurick<nurickrc@yahoo.com>
Subject: FrumonTrump(someinterestingstuffinhere)

http://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2016/01/the-great-republican-revolt/419118/

TheGreatRepublicanRevolt

TheangriestandmostpessimisticpeopleinAmericaarentthehipsterprotesterswhoflittedinandoutofOccupyWall
Street.Theyarentthehashtavistsof#BlackLivesMatter.TheyarenttheremnantsoftheAmericanlabormovementorthe
savvyyoungdreamerswhoconfrontpoliticianswiththeirAmericanaccentsandun-Americanlegalstatus.

TheangriestandmostpessimisticpeopleinAmericaarethepeopleweusedtocallMiddleAmericans.Middle-classand
middle-agednotrichandnotpoorpeoplewhoareirkedwhenaskedtopress1forEnglish,andwhowonderhowwhite
malebecameanaccusationratherthanadescription.

Youcanmeasuretheirpessimisminpollsthataskabouttheirexpectationsfortheirlivesandforthoseoftheirchildren.
Onbothcounts,whiteswithoutacollegedegreeexpressthebleakestview.Youcanseetheeffectsoftheirdespairinthe
newstatisticsdescribinghorrifyingratesofsuicideandsubstance-abusefatalityamongthissamegroup,inmiddleage.

WhiteMiddleAmericansexpressheavymistrustofeveryinstitutioninAmericansociety:notonlygovernment,but
corporations,unions,eventhepoliticalpartytheytypicallyvotefortheRepublicanPartyofRomney,Ryan,and
McConnell,whichtheydespiseasasadcrewofweaklingsandsellouts.Theyarepissedoff.AndwhenDonaldTrump
camealong,theywerethepeoplewhotoldthepollsters,Thatsmyguy.

Theyarentnecessarilysuperconservative.Theyoftendontthinkinideologicaltermsatall.Buttheydostronglyfeelthat
lifeinthiscountryusedtobebetterforpeoplelikethemandtheywantthatoldercountryback.

Youhearfrompeopleliketheminmanyotherdemocraticcountriestoo.AcrossEurope,populistpartiesaredeliveringa
messagethatcombinesdefenseofthewelfarestatewithskepticismaboutimmigrationthatdenouncesthecorruptionof
parliamentarydemocracyandalsotherisksofglobalcapitalism.Someofthesepartieshavealeftishflavor,likeItalysFive
StarMovement.Somearerootedtotherightofcenter,liketheU.K.IndependenceParty.Somedescendfromneofascists,
likeFrancesNationalFront.OtherstracetheirDNAtoCommunistparties,likeSlovakiasgoverningDirectionSocial
Democracy.

ThesepopulistsseektodefendwhattheFrenchcallacquiredrightshealthcare,pensions,andotherprogramsthat
benefitolderpeopleagainstbankersandtechnocratswhoendlesslydemandausterityagainstmigrantswhomakenew
claimsandchallengeaccustomedwaysagainstaglobalizedmarketthatdepresseswagesandbenefits.IntheUnitedStates,
theyleanRepublicanbecausetheyfeartheDemocratswanttotakefromthemandredistributetoAmericanswhoare
newer,poorer,andintheirviewlessdeservingtospreadthewealtharound,incandidateBarackObamaswordstoJoe
thePlumberbackin2008.Yettheyhavecometofearmoreandmorestronglythattheirpartydoesnothavetheirbest
interestsatheart.

AmajorityofRepublicansworrythatcorporationsandthewealthyexerttoomuchpower.Theirpartyleadersworkto
ensurethatthesesamegroupscanexertevenmore.MainstreamRepublicanswerequiteateasewithtaxincreaseson
householdsearningmorethan$250,000intheaftermathoftheGreatRecessionandthesubsequentstimulus.Their
congressionalrepresentativeshadtheoppositepriorities.In2008,manyRepublicanprimaryvotershadagreedwithformer
ArkansasGovernorMikeHuckabee,whowantedtheirnextpresidenttoremindthemoftheguytheyworkwith,notthe
guywholaidthemoff.ButthoseRepublicansdidnotcountformuchoncetheprimariesended,andnormalpolitics
resumedbetweenthemulticulturalDemocratsandaplutocraticGOP.

Thisyear,theyarecountingformore.TheirrebellionagainstthepoweroforganizedmoneyhasupendedAmericanpolitics
inwaysthatmayreverberateforalongtime.Tounderstandwhatmaycomenext,wemustfirstreviewtherecentpast.

BenCarsonatatown-hallmeetingattheUniversityofNewHampshire.Throughoutthisstory,GOP
candidatesareshownonthestumpintheGraniteStatelastsummerandfall,inphotographsshotforThe
AtlanticandNewHampshiremagazine.(MarkOstow/NewHampshiremagazine/TheAtlantic)
Notsolongago,manyobserversworriedthatAmericanshadlostinterestinpolitics.InhisfamousbookBowlingAlone,
publishedin2000,thesocialscientistRobertPutnambemoanedthecollapseinAmericanpoliticalparticipationduringthe
secondhalfofthe20thcentury.PutnamsuggestedthatthistrendwouldcontinueastheWorldWarIIgenerationgaveway
todisengagedGenXers.

ButevenasPutnamsbookwentintopaperback,thatnotionwasfallingbehindthetimes.Inthe1996presidentialelection,
voterturnouthadtumbledtothelowestlevelsincethe1920s,lessthan52percent.TurnoutroseslightlyinNovember2000.
Then,suddenly:overdrive.Inthepresidentialelectionsof2004and2008,voterturnoutspikedtolevelsnotseensince
beforethevotingagewasloweredto18,andin2012itdippedonlyalittle.Voterswereexcitedbyahailstormofdivisive
events:thedot-combust,theBush-versus-Gorerecount,the9/11terroristattacks,theIraqWar,thefinancialcrisis,the
bailoutsandstimulus,andtheAffordableCareAct.

PutnamwasrightthatAmericanswereturningawayfromtraditionalsourcesofinformation.Butthatwasbecausethey
wereturningtonewones:firstcablenewschannelsandpartisanpoliticaldocumentariesthenblogsandnewsaggregators
liketheDrudgeReportandTheHuffingtonPostafterthat,andmostdecisively,socialmedia.

PoliticswasbecomingmorecentraltoAmericansidentitiesinthe21stcenturythaniteverwasinthe20th.Wouldyoube
upsetifyourchildmarriedasupporterofadifferentpartyfromyourown?In1960,only5percentofAmericanssaidyes.
In2010,athirdofDemocratsandhalfofRepublicansdid.Politicalidentityhasbecomesocentralbecauseithascometo
overlapwithsomanyotheraspectsofidentity:race,religion,lifestyle.In1960,Iwouldnthavelearnedmuchaboutyour
politicsifyoutoldmethatyouhunted.Today,thathobbystronglysuggestsRepublicanloyalty.Unmarried?In1960,that
indicatedlittle.Today,itpredictsthatyoureaDemocrat,especiallyifyourealsoawoman.

Meanwhile,thedividinglinethatusedtobethemostcrucialofthemallclasshasincreasinglybecomeadivisionwithin
theparties,notbetweenthem.Since1984,nearlyeveryDemocraticpresidential-primaryracehasendedasacontest
betweenawinetrackcandidatewhoappealedtoprofessionals(GaryHart,MichaelDukakis,PaulTsongas,BillBradley,
andBarackObama)andabeertrackcandidatewhomobilizedtheremainsoftheoldindustrialworkingclass(Walter
Mondale,DickGephardt,BillClinton,AlGore,andHillaryClinton).TheRepublicanshavetheirequivalentinthebattles
betweenWallStreetandMainStreetcandidates.Untilthisdecade,however,bothpartiesandespeciallythehistorically
morecohesiveRepublicansmanagedtokeepsufficientclasspeacetopreservepartyunity.

Notanymore,atleastnotfortheRepublicans.

TheGreatRecessionendedinthesummerof2009.Sincethen,theU.S.economyhasbeengrowing,butmostincomes
havenotgrowncomparably.In2014,realmedianhouseholdincomeremainedalmost$4,000belowthepre-recessionlevel,
andwellbelowthelevelin1999.ThecountryhasrecoveredfromtheworsteconomicdisastersincetheGreatDepression.
Mostofitspeoplehavenot.ManyRepublicanshaventsharedintherecoveryandcontinuedupwardflightoftheirmore
affluentfellowpartisans.

ItwasthesepessimisticRepublicanswhopoweredtheTeaPartymovementof2009and2010.Theywerenot,asarule,
libertarianslookingforanultraminimalgovernment.ThecloseststudywehaveofthebeliefsofTeaPartysupporters,ledby
ThedaSkocpol,aHarvardpoliticalscientist,foundthatTeaPartiersjudgeentitlementprogramsnotintermsofabstract
free-marketorthodoxy,butaccordingtotheperceiveddeservingnessofrecipients.Thedistinctionbetweenworkersand
peoplewhodontworkisfundamentaltoTeaPartyideology.

MarcoRubioatatown-hallmeetingattheWolfeboroInninWolfeboroonOctober7.(MarkOstow/New
Hampshiremagazine/TheAtlantic)

ItsuncertainwhetheranyTeaPartiereverreallycarriedaplacardthatreadkeepyourgovernmenthandsoffmymedicare.
Butifso,thatpersonwasntspoutinggibberish.TheObamaadministrationhadlaidhandsonMedicare.Ithopedtosqueeze
$500billionoutoftheprogramfrom2010to2020tofinancehealthinsurancefortheuninsured.Youdidnthavetolookup
thefigurestohaveasensethatmanyoftheuninsuredwerenoncitizens(20percent),orthatevenmorewereforeign-born
(27percent).IntheTeaPartysangrytown-hallmeetings,thisissueresonatedperhapsmoreloudlythananyotherthe
ultimateexampleofredistributionfromadeservingustoanundeservingthem.

YetevenastheRepublicanMainStreetprotestedObamacare,itrejectedthehardeningideologicalorthodoxyofRepublican
donorsandelectedofficials.AsubstantialminorityofRepublicansalmost30percentsaidtheywouldwelcomeheavy
taxesonthewealthy,accordingtoGallup.WithinthepartythatmadePaulRyansentitlement-slashingbudgetplana
centerpieceofpolicy,only21percentfavoredcutsinMedicareandonly17percentwantedtoseespendingonSocial
Securityreduced,accordingtoPew.LessthanathirdofordinaryRepublicanssupportedapathwaytocitizenshipforillegal
immigrants(againaccordingtoPew)amajority,bycontrast,favoredstepped-updeportation.

Asaclass,bigRepublicandonorscouldnotseeanyofthis,orwouldnot.Soneitherdidthepoliticianswhodependupon
them.Againstallevidence,bothgroupsinterpretedtheTeaPartyasamassmovementinfavoroftheagendaoftheWall
StreetJournaleditorialpage.Oneofthemoredangerouspleasuresofgreatwealthisthatyouneverhavetohearanyonetell
youthatyouarecompletelywrong.

JebBushonhiscampaignbusinRyeonNovember3.(MarkOstow/NewHampshiremagazine/The
Atlantic)

ItwasmittromneywhogotthefirstpostTeaPartypresidentialnomination,andheranonaplatformofConservatism
Classic:taxcuts,budgetcuts,deregulation,freetradealllightlyseasonedwithsomeconcessionstothebaseregarding
stricterimmigrationenforcement.Therankandfiledidnotlikeit.Buttheycouldnotstopit.Thebasekeptelevatingnot
Romneysintofirstplace,andeachrapidlyfailedorfizzledRomney,supportedbyacumulativetotalof$139millionin
primaryfundsbyMarch2012,trundledon.

Romneyultimatelylostthepresidentialelection,ofcourse,tothesurpriseanddismayofapartyeliteconfidentofvictory
untiltheveryend.Onemighthaveexpectedthisshocktoforcearethink.TheRepublicanshadnowlostfouroutofthe
pastsixpresidentialelections.AnotherelectionhadbeenwononlyintheElectoralCollege,despitethelossofthepopular
vote.Eventheirbestshowing,50.7percentofthevotein2004,representedtheclosestescapeofanyincumbentpresident
whowonreelectionsincethefirstrecordedpopularvote.

Andyet,withinhoursofRomneysdefeat,Republicandonors,talkers,andofficialsconvergedonthemaximallyself-
exculpatingexplanation.TheproblemhadnotbeentheplantophaseoutMedicareforpeopleyoungerthan55.Orthelack
ofideasabouthowtoraisewages.Orthecommitmenttoendinghealth-insurancecoverageformillionsofworking-age
Americans.Ortheanthemstowealthcreationandentrepreneurshipinacountryincreasinglyskepticalofboth.No,the
problemwastheoneelementofRomneysmessagetheyhadneverlikedanyway:immigrationenforcement.

Ownersofcapitalassets,employersoflow-skilllaborers,andhighlycompensatedprofessionalstendtobenefit
economicallyfromthearrivalofimmigrants.Theyarebetterpositionedtoenjoytheattractiveculturalandsocialresultsof
migration(more-interestingfood!)andtoprotectthemselvesagainsttheburdensomeimpacts(surgesinnon-English-
proficientpupilsinpublicschools).Apro-immigrationpolicyshiftwasonemoreassertionofclassinterestinaparty
programalreadybrimfulofthem.

NobodyexpressedthepartyelitesconsensusviewmoreassuredlythanCharlesKrauthammer.Ignorethetrimmers,he
wroteinhisfirstpostelectioncolumn.Theresnoneedforradicalchange.Theotherpartythinksitownsthedemographic
futurecounterthatinonestrokebyfixingtheLatinoproblem.Donot,however,abandonthepartysphilosophicalanchor
Noreinventionwhennoneisneeded.

Wevegottagetridoftheimmigrationissuealtogether,SeanHannitytoldhisradioaudiencethedayaftertheelection.
Itssimpleformetofixit.Ithinkyoucontroltheborderfirst,youcreateapathwayforthosepeoplethatarehere,you
dontsay,Yougottagohome.AndthatisapositionthatIveevolvedon.

Aco-ownerofFoxNewsKrauthammerandHannitysTVnetworkagreed:Musthavesweeping,generousimmigration
reform,tweetedRupertMurdochonNovember7,2012.Itwouldbeinhumanetosendthosepeopleback,tosend12
millionpeopleoutofthiscountry,thecasinomogulandRepublicandonorSheldonAdelsontoldTheWallStreetJournalin
Decemberofthatyear.Wevegottofindaway,findaroute,forthosepeopletogetlegalcitizenship.TheRepublican
NationalCommitteemadeitallofficialinaMarch2013postelectionreportsignedbypartyeminences.Thereportgenerally
avoidedpolicyrecommendations,withanotableexception:Wemustembraceandchampioncomprehensiveimmigration
reform.Toadvancethecause,PaulSinger,oneofthemostopen-pocketedGOPdonors,madeasix-figurecontributionto
theNationalImmigrationForumthatspring.

IfallofthissoundslikeaprescriptionforaJebBushcandidacyforpresidentwell,perhapsthatwasnotanentirely
unintendedconsequence.

AlmostassoonasthenewCongressconvenedin2013,SenateRepublicansworkedtostrikeadealoverimmigration
issues.AbipartisanGangofEight,includingFloridasambitiousyoungMarcoRubio,agreedonaplanthatwouldcreatea
pathtocitizenshipformillionsofillegalimmigrantsandsubstantiallyincreaselegal-immigrationlimitsforbothhigh-and
low-skilledworkers.Otherwise,thepartyyieldedonnothinganddoubleddownoneverything.NoU-turns.No
compromises.

TedCruzataPracticalFederalismforumatSouthernNewHampshireUniversity,inHooksett,onOctober3.
(MarkOstow/NewHampshiremagazine/TheAtlantic)

Thenewstrategysoonprovedatotalandutterfailure.GeorgeW.Bushstaxcutsforhighearnersexpiredin2013,and
Republicanscouldnotrenewthem.Thedrivetocutthedeficitendedinbudgetsequestration,whoseharshesteffectfellon
themilitary.TheGangofEightdealnevercametoavoteintheHouse.Allthewhile,Republicansapprovalratingsslipped
andslid.InsteadofholdingontotheirbaseandaddingHispanics,Republicansalienatedtheirbaseinreturnfornogainsat
all.Bymid-2015,amajorityofself-identifiedRepublicansdisapprovedoftheirpartyscongressionalleadershipanintensity
ofdisapprovalneverseenbytheRepublicanmajorityofthe1990snorbyDemocratsduringtheirtimeinthemajorityafter
the2006midtermelections.

Infact,disapprovalhadflaredintoanoutrightrevoltoftheRepublicanbaseinthesummerof2014.HouseMajorityLeader
EricCantor,theNo.2manintheRepublicancaucus,hademergedasaleaderofthenewlineonimmigration.Upfor
reelectioninVirginiasSeventhDistrict,CantorwaschallengedthatyearbyaconservativeChristianprofessorof
economics,DaveBrat.DuringObamasfirstterm,TeaPartyinsurgentshadtoppledincumbentsanddefeatedparty
favoritesinprimariesfromDelawaretoNevada.Thosechallengeshadendedbadlyinthegeneralelection,forthemostpart:
TeaPartyRepublicanslostatleastfiveSenateseatsthatmightplausiblyhavebeenwon.Partyleadersbelievedthelesson
hadbeenlearnedandexpectedtheirvoterstobemoretractableinfutureelections.

CantorslosstoBratjoltedHouseleaders.Immigrationreformslippedofftheiragenda.MarcoRubiorepudiatedhisown
deal.ButRepublicanelitesoutsideCongressdidnotgetthemessage.TheyrationalizedCantorsdefeatasafreakevent,the
sadconsequenceofanationallymindedpoliticiansneglectofhisdistrict.TheycontinuedtofillthecoffersofJebBush
and,toalesserextent,RubioandScottWalker,allreliablepurveyorsofConservatismClassic.LastFebruary,threeofthe
partysmostimportantmoneymenthefast-foodexecutiveAndrewPuzder,thehealth-careinvestorMikeFernandez,and
thenationalfinancechairofMittRomneys2012campaign,SpencerZwickpubliclyurgedtheGOPtopushaheadtoward
more-openimmigration.Americashouldbeadestinationforhardworkingimmigrantsfromallovertheworld,said
Puzder,anadvocateofimportingmorelow-skilledlaborerstomeettheneedsofhishigh-turnoverindustry.Zwicksaidthat
anypresidentialcandidatewhowantedtobetakenseriouslyhadbetterbeinasimilarplacetoJebBushonthe
immigrationissue.

MaybeitwasnotagoodideaforJebBushsalliestodescribehisfund-raisingstrategyasshockandawe.Perhapsthe
IraqWarreferencestirredpainfulmemories,evenamongRepublicans.Still,Bushsfund-raisinggenuinelyinspiredawe.In
hisfinancialdisclosureforthesecondquarterof2015,Bushreportedraising$11.4millionforhisformalcampaignand
another$103millionforhissuperPAC.Thesefundswereprovidedbyarelativelysmallnumberofverywealthypeople.Of
Bushspresidential-campaigndollars,only3percentarrivedinamountsof$200orless.Almost82percentarrivedinthe
maximumincrementof$2,700.Nearly80percentofBushssuper-PACtakearrivedinincrementsof$25,000ormore
aboutaquarterofthehaulwasmadeupofdonationsof$1millionormore.

Yetseldominthehistoryoffund-raisinghassomuchboughtsolittle,sofleetingly.BetweenDecember2014andSeptember
2015,JebBushplungedfromfirstplaceintheRepublicanfieldtofifth.BetweenlateSeptemberandmid-October,he
purchased60percentofallpoliticalspotsairedinNewHampshire.Thatadbarragepushedhispollnumbersinthestate
fromabout9percenttoabout8percent.

ChrisChristieatthe2015NewHampshireEducationSummitinLondonerryonAugust19.(MarkOstow/
NewHampshiremagazine/TheAtlantic)

AsthegovernorofFlorida,Bushhadcuttaxesandbalancedbudgets.Hedchallengedunionsandchampionedcharter
schools.Atthesametime,Bushpassionatelysupportedimmigrationliberalization.Thecentraleventinhislifehistorywas
hisreinventionasanhonoraryLatinoAmericanwhenhemarriedaMexicanwoman,ColumbaGarnicadeGallo.Hespoke
Spanishathome.HeconvertedtoCatholicism.HesoughthisfortunewithaCubanAmericanbusinesspartner.Inhismost
quotablephrase,hedescribedillegalimmigrationasanactoflove.

BushsupdateofConservatismClassichadmadehimahitwiththepartysbigdonors.HehadwonaccoladesfromKarl
Rove(thedeepestthinkeronourside)andArthurBrooks,thepresidentoftheAmericanEnterpriseInstitute(atop-
drawerintellect).YetwithinfiveweeksofhisformaldeclarationofcandidacyonJune15,Bushscampaignhadbeen
brutallyrejectedbytheGOPrankandfile.

FromJupiterIsland,Florida,toGreenwich,ConnecticutfromDallassHighlandParktoSeaIsland,GeorgiafromFifth
AvenueinManhattantoCaliforniasNewportBeach,thebaffledquestionresounded:Whatwentwrong?

Big-dollarRepublicanfavoriteshaverunintotroublebefore,ofcourse.RudyGiulianiimplodedin200708MittRomneys
2012nominationwasknockedoffcourseasRepublicansworkedtheirwaythroughaseriesofalternativefront-runners:
RickPerry,HermanCain,NewtGingrich,andfinallyRickSantorum.ButGiulianilostgroundtotworivalsequally
acceptabletothedonorelite,ornearlyso:MittRomneyandJohnMcCain.In201112,thelongestanyofthenot
Romneysremainedinfirstplacewassixweeks.Inbothcycles,resistancetothepartyfavoritewasconcentratedamong
socialandreligiousconservatives.

Themutinyofthe2016electioncyclehasbeendifferent.Bythefallof2015,amajorityofRepublicansfavoredcandidates
whohadneverbeenelectedtoanything:DonaldTrump,BenCarson,andCarlyFiorina.Fiorinascampaignwasperhapsnot
sounusual.AformerCEO,sheappealedtothesamebusiness-mindedRepublicanswhomighthavevotedforRomneyin
2012.CarsonappealedtothesamereligiousconservativesthatcandidateslikeMikeHuckabeeandSantorumhadappealed
toinpriorpresidentialcycles.WhatwasnewandastonishingwastheTrumpboom.Hejettisonedpartyorthodoxyonissues
rangingfromentitlementspendingtoforeignpolicy.Hescoffedattradeagreements.HesaidrudethingsaboutSheldon
AdelsonandtheKochbrothers.Hereviledthecampaigncontributionsofbigdonorshimselfincluded!asopenand
blatantfavor-buying.TrumpssurgewasadecisiverepudiationbymillionsofRepublicanvotersofthecollectivewisdomof
theirpartyelite.

WhenTrumpfirsteruptedintotheRepublicanraceinJune,hedidsowithamessageofgrimpessimism.Wegot$18
trillionindebt.WegotnothingbutproblemsWeredying.Weredying.WeneedmoneyWehavelosers.Wehave
peoplethatdonthaveit.Wehavepeoplethataremorallycorrupt.Wehavepeoplethataresellingthiscountrydownthe
drainTheAmericandreamisdead.

ThatmessagedidnotresonatewiththosewhodriddentheS&P500fromlessthan900in2009tomorethan2,000in
2015.Butitfoundanaudienceallthesame.HalfofTrumpssupporterswithintheGOPhadstoppedtheireducationator
beforehigh-schoolgraduation,accordingtothepollingfirmYouGov.Only19percenthadacollegeorpostcollegedegree.
Thirty-eightpercentearnedlessthan$50,000.Only11percentearnedmorethan$100,000.

TrumpRepublicanswerenotideologicallymilitant.Just13percentsaidtheywereveryconservative19percentdescribed
themselvesasmoderate.NorweretheyhighlyreligiousbyRepublicanstandards.

Left:CarlyFiorinaonafactorytouratRapidSheetMetalinNashuaonOctober5.Right:MikeHuckabeeat
formerMassachusettsSenatorScottBrownsBackyardNoBSBBQinRyeonOctober16.(MarkOstow/
NewHampshiremagazine/TheAtlantic)

WhatsetthemapartfromotherRepublicanswastheireconomicinsecurityandtheintensityoftheireconomicnationalism.
Sixty-threepercentofTrumpsupporterswishedtoendbirthrightcitizenshipforthechildrenofillegalimmigrantsbornon
U.S.soiladozenpointshigherthanthenormforallRepublicans.MorethanotherRepublicans,Trumpsupporters
distrustedBarackObamaasalienanddangerous:Only21percentacknowledgedthatthepresidentwasbornintheUnited
States,accordingtoanAugustsurveybytheDemocratic-orientedpollingfirmPPP.Sixty-sixpercentbelievedthepresident
wasaMuslim.

Trumppromisedtoprotectthesevoterspensionsfromtheirownpartysausterity.WevegotSocialSecuritythatsgoing
tobedestroyedifsomebodylikemedoesntbringmoneyintothecountry.Alltheseotherpeoplewanttocutthehelloutof
it.ImnotgoingtocutitatallImgoingtobringmoneyin,andweregoingtosaveit.

HepromisedtoprotecttheirchildrenfrombeingdrawnintoanotherwarintheMiddleEast,thistimeinSyria.Ifwere
goingtohaveWorldWarIII,hetoldTheWashingtonPostinOctober,itsnotgoingtobeoverSyria.Asforthe
politiciansthreateningtoshootdowntheRussianjetsflyingmissionsinSyria,Iwontevencallthemhawks.Icallthem
thefools.

HepromisedacampaignindependentoftheinfluencesofmoneythathadswayedsomanyRepublicanracesofthepast.I
willtellyouthatoursystemisbroken.Igavetomanypeople.Beforethis,beforetwomonthsago,Iwasabusinessman.I
givetoeverybody.Whentheycall,Igive.Andyouknowwhat?WhenIneedsomethingfromthem,twoyearslater,three
yearslater,Icallthem.Theyarethereforme.Andthatsabrokensystem.

HepromisedabovealltoprotecttheirwagesfrombeingundercutbyRepublicanimmigrationpolicy.

Left:RandPaulatameetandgreetatMaryAnnsDinerinWindhamonJuly26.Right:JohnKasichata
town-hallmeetingintheVeteransofForeignWarsbuildinginDerryonAugust12.(MarkOstow/New
Hampshiremagazine/TheAtlantic)

Itcannotlast,canit?Thecasinodoesnotalwayswin,StuartStevens,MittRomneysleadstrategistduringthe2012
campaign,quippedtomeinSeptember.Butthatsthewaytobet.Thecasinowonin2012,andwillverylikelywinagain
in2016.

Andyetalready,Trumphasdestroyedoneelite-favoredpresidentialcandidacy,ScottWalkers,andcrippledtwoothers,Jeb
BushsandChrisChristies.Hehasthrownintodisarraythepartyspost-2012comebackstrategy,andpulledintothecenter
ofnationaldiscussionissuesandconstituencieslongrelegatedtothemargins.

SomethinghaschangedinAmericanpoliticssincetheGreatRecession.Theoldslogansringhollow.Theinsurgent
candidatesarelessabsurd,theorthodoxcandidatesmorevulnerable.TheGOPdonoreliteplannedadynasticrestorationin
2016.Instead,ittriggeredaninternalclasswar.

Thecontestforthepresidencyturnsonexternaleventsasmuchasormorethaninternalpartypolitics.GeorgeW.
Bushsteambelievedthatthelast-minuterevelationofa1976drunk-drivingarrestcosthimthepopularvoteinthe2000
election.JimmyCarterblamedhis1980defeatonthedebacleoftheattemptedrescueofAmericanhostagesinIran.So
anythingcanhappen.Butthatdoesnotmeananythingwillhappen.Barringshocks,presidentialelectionsturnonthe
fundamentalsofeconomics,demography,andideology.

ThepuzzleforthemoniedleadersoftheRepublicanPartyis:Whatnow?Andwhatnextafterthat?Noneoftheoptions
facingtheGOPeliteisentirelycongenial.Butthereappeartobefourpathstheelitecouldfollow,forthiscampaignseason
andbeyond.Theyleadthepartyinverydifferentdirections.

Option1:DoubleDown
ThepremiseofthepastfewthousandwordsisthattheRepublicandonorelitefailedtoimposeitspreferredcandidateonan
unwillingbasein2015forbigandimportantreasons.Butmaybethatpremiseiswrong.MaybeJebBushhasjustbeenabad
candidatewitharadioactivelastname.Maybethesamemessageandplatformwouldhaveworkedfineifespousedbya
fresherandliveliercandidate.SuchisthetheoryofMarcoRubioscampaign.Orevenifthedonormessageandplatform
havetroublesmaybe$100millioninnegativeadscanscorchanypotentialalternative,enablingthedonor-backedcandidate
towinbydefault.

AndifnotRubio,maybethecoredonormessagecouldstillworkifjoinedtoatrueoutsidercandidacy:BenCarsons,for
example.Carsonisoftenregardedasaprotestcandidate,butasTheWeeklyStandardsFredBarnesenthusedbackin
January2015:OnethingnotindoubtisCarsonsconservatism.Hestherealdeal,aneconomic,social,andforeignpolicy
conservative.Carsonmaysaywackythings,buthedoesnotsayheterodoxthings.

YeteveniftheRepublicandonorelitecankeepcontrolofthepartywhiledoublingdown,itsdoubtfulthatthetacticcan
ultimatelywinpresidentialelections.Thechangenothingbutimmigrationadvicewasaself-flatteringfantasyfromthe
start.ImmigrationisnotthemainreasonRepublicanpresidentialcandidateslosesobadlyamongLatinoandAsianAmerican
voters,andneverwas:Latinovotersaremorelikelytolisteducationandhealthcareasissuesthatareextremelyimportant
tothem.AmajorityofAsianAmericansarenon-Christianandsusceptibletoexclusionbysectarianreligiousthemes.

So

Option2:TacticalConcession

Perhapssomeconcessiontothedisgruntledbaseisneeded.ThatsthetheoryoftheCruzcampaignandafteracourse
correctionalsooftheChristiecampaign.Insteadof2013sConservatismClassicPlusImmigrationLiberalization,Cruz
andChristieareurgingConservatismClassicPlusImmigrationEnforcement.True,Cruzscarefullyselectedwordson
immigrationleaveopenthepossibilityofguest-workerprogramsorotherpro-employerreformsafteraburstofborder
enforcement.ButCruzandChristiehaveseenthereactiontoDonaldTrumpsmessage,andappeartoappreciatetheneedto
atleastseemtodosomethingtoredressthegrievancesoftheRepublicanbase.

MuchofthedonorelitecouldlikelybeconvincedthatwhileJebBushsideaofimmigrationreformwouldbegoodtohave,
itisntamust-have.Justasthepartyelitereachedapactonabortionwithsocialconservativesinthe1980s,itcould
concedetheimmigrationissuetoitsMainStreetbaseinthe2010s.

YetanarrowfocusonimmigrationpopulismaloneseemsinsufficienttoraiseRepublicanhopes.Trumpshrewdlyjoinshis
immigrationpopulismtotradepopulism.OntheDemocraticside,BernieSanderssoppositiontoopenbordersislogically
connectedtohishopesforaDemocraticSocialistfuture:HisadmiredDenmarkupholdshighlaborstandardsalongwith
someoftheworldstoughestimmigrationrules.Severedfromalargeragenda,howeverasMittRomneytriedtoseverthe
issuein2012immigrationpopulismlooksatbestlikepandering,andatworstlikeidentitypoliticsforwhitevoters.Ina
societythatisandalwayshasbeenmultiethnicandpolyglot,anynationalpartymustcompetemorebroadlythanthat.

Whichbringsusto

Option3:TrueReform

Admittedly,thismaybethemostuncongenialthoughtofthemall,butpartyelitescouldtrytoopenmoreideologicalspace
fortheeconomicinterestsofthemiddleclass.Makepeacewithuniversalhealth-insurancecoverage:MendObamacare
ratherthanendit.Cuttaxeslessatthetop,andusethemoneytodelivermorebenefitstoworkingfamiliesinthemiddle.
Deviseimmigrationpolicytosupportwages,notundercutthem.Worrymoreaboutregulationsthatartificiallytransfer
wealthupward,andlessaboutregulationsthatconstrainfinancialspeculation.Takeseriouslyissuessuchasthelengthof
commutes,nursing-homecosts,andtheanticompetitivepracticesthatinflatecollegetuition.RememberthatRepublican
voterscaremoreaboutaligninggovernmentwiththeirvaluesofworkandfamilythantheycareaboutcuttingthesizeof
governmentasanendinitself.Recognizethatthegimmickofmobilizingthebasewithculture-waroutragesstopped
workingatleastadecadeago.

Left:RickSantorumatMurphysDinerinManchesteronJuly25.Center:LindseyGrahamattheMilford
LaborDayparadeonSeptember7.Right:GeorgePatakiattheGraniteStateBrewersAssociationSummerfest
 atArmsPark,inManchester,onJuly25.(MarkOstow/NewHampshiremagazine/TheAtlantic)

Suchapartywouldcuthealth-carecostsbysqueezingproviders,notyoungbeneficiaries.Itwouldboostproductivityby
investinginhardinfrastructurebridges,airports,water-treatmentplants.ItwouldrestoreDwightEisenhowertothe
RepublicanpantheonalongsideRonaldReaganandemphasizethecenterincenter-right.

Toimaginethechangeistoseehowconvulsiveitwouldbeandhowunlikely.True,center-rightconservativeparties
backedbybroadmultiethniccoalitionsofthemiddleclasshavegainedandexercisedpowerinotherEnglish-speaking
countries,evenasRepublicanslostthepresidencyin2008and2012.Butthemost-influentialvoicesinAmerican
conservatismrejecttheexperienceoftheirforeigncounterpartsasweak,unprincipled,andunnecessary.Inparliamentary
democracy,winningorlosingisstarklybinary:Apartyeitherisinpoweroristheopposition.IntheAmericansystem,that
binaryismuchblurrier.Republicanscan,ofcourse,exertsomecontrolovergovernmentaslongastheyholdanyoneof
theHouse,Senate,orpresidency.

Whichbringsusfinallyto

Option4:ChangetheRulesoftheGame

Thefilibusterusedtobebad.Nowitsgood.SoFredThompson,thelateactorandformerRepublicansenator,jokingly
toldanaudienceonaNationalReviewcruiseshortlyafterBarackObamawonthepresidencyforthefirsttime.How
partisansfeelaboutprocessissuesisnotoriouslyrelatedtowhatprocesswouldbenefitthematanygivenmoment.Liberals
lovedtheinterventionistSupremeCourtinthe1960sand70s,hateditinthe1990sand2000sandmayrotatetheir
opinionagainifaPresidentHillaryClintoncantiltamajorityoftheSupremeCourttheirway.Itsanoldstorythatmayfind
anewtwistifandwhenRepublicansacknowledgethatthepresidencymaybeattainableonlyaftertheymakepolicy
changesthatareunacceptabletothepartyelite.

Therearemetrics,afterall,bywhichthepost-2009GOPappearstobeasupremelysuccessfulpoliticalparty.Recently,
RoryCooper,ofthecommunicationsfirmPurpleStrategies,talliedanetgaintotheRepublicansof69seatsintheHouseof
Representatives,13seatsintheSenate,900-plusseatsinstatelegislatures,and12governorshipssinceObamatookoffice.
Withthatkindofgriponstategovernment,inparticular,Republicansarewellpositionedtowriteelectionandvotingrules
thatsustaintheirholdonthenationallegislature.Thepresidentmaybeabletograntformerlyillegalimmigrantstherightto
work,buthecannotgrantthemtherighttovote.Inthislight,insteadofrevisingRepublicanpoliciestostopfutureBarack
ObamasandHillaryClintons,maybeitsnecessarytoreviseonlythepartyrulestostopfutureDonaldTrumpsfrom
confrontingpartyeliteswiththeirownunpopularity.

TheinauguralissueofTheWeeklyStandard,theconservativemagazinelaunchedin1995,depictedthenSpeakerofthe
HouseNewtGingrichswingingintoaction,asubmachinegunblazinginhislefthand,undertheheadlinePermanent
Offense.Butthatwasthen.Maybethemorenaturalconditionofconservativepartiesispermanentdefenseandwhere
bettertowagealong,grindingdefensivecampaignthaninCongressandthestatehouses?Maybethepresidencyitself
shouldberegardedasoneofthosethingsthatisgoodtohavebutnotamust-have,especiallyifobtainingitrequires
uncomfortablechange.

Whathappenstoanelitewhosefollowerswithdrawtheirassent?Doesitself-examine?Ordoesittakerefugeindenial?
Doesitchange?Ordoesittrytopreventchange?Doesitchallengeitselftobuildanewpoliticalmajority?Ordoesitseize
theopportunitiestheAmericanpoliticalsystemofferstocompactandpurposefulminorities?Whenitsoldanswersfail,will
itthinkanew?Orwillitsimplyrepeatlouderthedogmasthatenthralledsupportersinthepast?Americanslovethecrushof
competition,thehard-foughtstruggle,thelong-sloggingrace.ButmuchmorethanthepunditsWhowillwin?,itisthese
deeperquestionsfromtheelectionof2016thatwillshapethefutureofAmericanpolitics.
 From: JohnBDunlop<jbdunlop@stanford.edu>
Senttime: 12/19/201501:00:32PM
To: martin.dewhirst@gmail.com
Cc: robertotto25@gmail.com
FW:[SATAFTERNOON/ESTITEMSTONOTE---RICHLODE][JohnD]Fwd:"RussianCONTRACTORSwerekilledinSyria,"WSJ,12/19-20,p.
Subject:
A8.....[MichaelG]TheRU-DE'Technolohiya'UsedtoCircumventSanctions........[BP]PolishreportonRussianwarcrimesinDo...

From:WalterZaryckyj[mailto:waz2102@caa.columbia.edu]
Sent:Saturday,December19,201512:03PM
Subject:Fwd:[SATAFTERNOON/ESTITEMSTONOTE---RICHLODE][JohnD]Fwd:"RussianCONTRACTORSwerekilledinSyria,"WSJ,
12/19-20,p.A8.....[MichaelG]TheRU-DE'Technolohiya'UsedtoCircumventSanctions........[BP]PolishreportonRussianwarcrimesinDo...

----------Forwardedmessage----------
From:WalterZaryckyj<waz2102@caa.columbia.edu>
Date:Sat,Dec19,2015at2:59PM
Subject:[SATAFTERNOON/ESTITEMSTONOTE---RICHLODE][JohnD]Fwd:"RussianCONTRACTORSwerekilledin
Syria,"WSJ,12/19-20,p.A8.....[MichaelG]TheRU-DE'Technolohiya'UsedtoCircumventSanctions........[BP]Polishreporton
RussianwarcrimesinDonbas......[AFU]HILARIOUS:"TRUMPNAMESPUTINASHISRUNNINGMATE"
[Enjoy/Disseminate]........[CliffK]TrumpSeekstoMakeRussiaGreatAgain.......[WD]Meduza:Putin'slies----6ofthemost
outrageousuntruthsfromyesterday'spressconference........
To:RomaHadzewycz<staff@ukrweekly.com>,rl<romashka1@aol.com>

OnSat,Dec19,2015at1:40PM,JohnBDunlopwrote:

"RussianCONTRACTORSwerekilledinSyria,"WSJ,12/19-20,p.A8

AsmanyasnineRussiancontractorsdiedinOctoberwhenamortarroundhittheir
homebaseinWesternSyriaTheRussiangovernmenthasntacknowledgedtheir
deaths.TheRussianskilledinSyriabelongedtoaprivategroupcalledOSMThe
groupisknowninformallyasWagner,afterthenomdeguerreofitsleader,aformer
militaryintelligenceofficer

----------Forwardedmessage----------
From:MichaelGonchar<mi.gor17@gmail.com>
Date:Sat,Dec19,2015at12:03PM
Subject:Itmightbeinteresting
To:WalterZaryckyj<waz2102@caa.columbia.edu>,MykolaHryckowian<mykcusur@gmail.com>,wolodymyrzarycky
<wzarcusur@gmail.com>

ED:ARussian-GermanTale(inUkrainian):The'Technolohiya'ofCircumventingtheSanctions

http://gazeta.dt.ua/international/rosiysko-nimeckiy-nur-gesch-ft-abo-tehnologiya-obhodu-sankciy-_.html

--

Sincerelyyours
MichaelM.Gonchar
PresidentoftheCentreforGlobalStudies
STRATEGYXXI(Kyiv)
HeadoftheKyivInternationalEnergyQ-Club
+380444254162(KyivOffice)
+380989827278(UAGSM)
Office26,Shchekavytskastr.51
Kyiv,04071,Ukraine
http://geostrategy.org.ua

----------Forwardedmessage----------
From:BorysPotapenko<boryspotapenko@gmail.com>
Date:Sat,Dec19,2015at2:42PM
Subject:Fwd:PolishreportonRussianwarcrimesinDonbas
To:WalterZaryckyj<waz2102@caa.columbia.edu>,MykolaHryckowian<mykcusur@gmail.com>

Vlodko

Iknowyouaredown-under,butcanyougetthisouttoyouremaillist.[ED:NotinOzzie-landyet!!]

Borys

----------Forwardedmessage----------
From:NykolaiBilaniuk<em826@ncf.ca>
Date:Sat,Dec19,2015at2:33PM
Subject:PolishreportonRussianwarcrimesinDonbas
To:

RussianwarcrimesineasternUkrainein2014
http://www.donbasswarcrimes.org/report/
2015-12-1019:07
155pages

ReportinPDFFormatisavailablehere
http://www.donbasswarcrimes.org/wp-content/uploads/2015/12/Russian_War_Crimes_in_Eastern_Ukraine_in_2014.pdf

Summary

ThisreportdescribeswarcrimesinthemeaningofinternationallawcommittedineasternandsouthernUkrainebysoldiersandofficialsoftheRussianFederationandby
thepro-Russianseparatistfighters.Thecrimesdocumentedhereinincludeunlawfuldeprivationoffreedom,physicalandmentaltortures,robberyandmurders.

Chapters1through3areofanintroductorynature.Theydescribethemethodologyusedbytheauthorsofthereportandpresentthecircumstancesinwhichthe
subsequentlydetailedcrimeswerecommitted.
Thelocationsandtypesofthecrimesthatwerecommittedaswellastheirperpetratorsaredescribedinchapter4.Theauthorsdiscussonlythosecrimestheyweretold
aboutbythevictimsthereofduringthefieldresearch.Morethan60interviewsweregatheredinthecourseofcollectingthematerialsforthisreport.Eachactiondescribed
inchapter4isconfirmedbyaquotefromthetestimonyofoneormorevictims.

Chapter4isdividedintosubchaptersthatcorrespondtoeachofthevenueswherewarcrimeshavebeencommitted,asidentifiedbytheauthorsofthereport.Mostof
thosevenuesareineasternUkraine,oneinCrimeaandoneintheterritoryoftheRussianFederation,wheretheRussianarmybroughtUkrainianprisonersofwar.

Chapter5isacatalogueofperpetratorsofthecrimeswhowerementionedinthetestimoniesofthevictims,includingashortoverviewandreferencestothedescription
ofthevenueswherethecrimeswerebeingcommitted,andpictures.

Thevictimsarenotmentionedbynamebutbyanassigned"C"(case)codenamesandnumbers.Anypersonaldatathatcouldbeusedtoidentifythevictimsindirectly
suchas,forexample,pictures,havebeenincludedonlyifaspecificvictimagreedtothedisclosureofhisorheridentityandspokefreelyinthemedia.

BasedonthedocumentaryevidencedescribedinthereportacommunicationwillbesubmittedtotheInternationalCriminalCourtinTheHague.

ThisreportistheresultofexaminationsconductedbyagroupofvolunteersvolunteerscommissionnedbyaMemberofthePolishParliament,MatgorzataGosiewska.

----------Forwardedmessage----------
From:AndrewJFutey<ajfutey@ameritech.net>
Date:Sat,Dec19,2015at11:50AM
Subject:TRUMPNAMESPUTINASHISRUNNINGMATE
To:ZaryckyjWalter<waz2102@caa.columbia.edu>,HryckowianMykola<mykcusur@gmail.com>,PotapenkoBorys
<boryspotapenko@gmail.com>

AndrewJ.Futey

SentfrommyiPhone

Beginforwardedmessage:

From:"TrumpPutin2016"<info@johnkasich.com>
Date:December19,2015at10:28:35AMEST
To:<ajfutey@ameritech.net>
Subject:TRUMPNAMESPUTINASHISRUNNINGMATE
Reply-To:info@johnkasich.com

FORIMMEDIATERELEASE
CONTACT:KatrinaPeskov

TRUMPNAMESVLADIMIRPUTINASHISRUNNING
MATE
DuoPledgetoMakeTyrannyGreatAgain

Inaboldandvisionarymovecharacteristicofeverythinghe
does,todayterrificbillionaireDonaldTrumpnamedRussian
PresidentVladimirPutinashisrunningmateinthe2016U.S.
presidentialcampaign.TrumppledgedthattogetherwithPutin
 hewouldMakeTyrannyGreatAgain.

TrumpsaidhepickedPutintobehisvicepresidentforhisstrong
approachtodealingwithdissent,flexibleapproachtodemocracy,
ruleoflawandtheConstitution,andhiswillingnesstoregularly
violateothercountriesterritorialintegrityinblatantviolationof
internationallawifitsuitedhisaims.

IthinkIwouldjustgetalongverywellwithVladimirPutin.I
justthinkso.Peoplesaywhatdoyoumean?Ijustthinkwe
would,saidTrump.

PutinreadilyacceptedTrumpsoffertoserveonhisticket,
saying,Hesareallybrilliantandtalentedperson,withouta
doubthestheabsoluteleaderinthepresidentialrace.

Trumpalsounveiledanewwebsiteforthedictatorial
duo:Trump-Putin2016.com,aswellastheTwitter
feed@TrumpPutin.

ConcernsthataPutinvicepresidencyis,well,illegalarejustsour
grapesfromdummiesnotsmartenoughtothinkofitfirst.

###

Pleaseclickhereifyouwishtounsubscribetotheseemails.

Paidforwithdollars,notrubles,byKasichforAmerica,www.JohnKasich.com

Thismessagewassenttoajfutey@ameritech.netfrom:

TrumpPutin2016|info@johnkasich.com|KasichforAmerica|CapitolSquare,Suite2100,65EastStateStreet|
EmailMarketingby
Columbus,OH43215-4260

Unsubscribe

----------Forwardedmessage----------
From:CliffKincaid<kincaid@comcast.net>
Date:Sat,Dec19,2015at2:28PM
Subject:TrumpSeekstoMakeRussiaGreatAgain
To:WalterZaryckyj<waz2102@caa.columbia.edu>

TrumpSeekstoMakeRussiaGreatAgain
ByCliffKincaid

http://www.aim.org/aim-column/trump-seeks-to-make-russia-great-again/

DonaldTrumphashiredanattractiveyoungwomantospinthenewsinhisfavor.Butitsadifficultjob,especiallywhenacold-blooded
killerendorsesyourcandidate.OnCNNonThursdaynight,KatrinaPiersonattemptedtosoftentheimpactoftheRussianpresidents
endorsementoforhighpraiseforTrumpforU.S.president.

Thiswasntanendorsement,shesaid.ThiswassimplyjustapowerfulmanrecognizingsomeoneintheUnitedStatesrunningfor
presidentwhoisalsoapowerfulman.Itwasnotanendorsement.

ThatpowerfulmaninRussiaisaformerKGBspywhoseregimeismurderinginnocentpeopleinUkraineandSyria.Itisthesame
regimewhoseterroristsinEasternUkraineshotdownaMalaysianairplaneandkilledalmost300people.

PutinsaidaboutTrump,Heisaveryflamboyantman,verytalented,nodoubtaboutthat...Heistheabsoluteleaderofthepresidential
race,asweseeittoday.Hesaysthathewantstomovetoanotherlevelofrelations,toadeeperlevelofrelationswithRussia.Howcan
wenotwelcomethat?Ofcoursewewelcomeit.

Itcertainlysoundedlikesomethingapproachinganendorsement.

TrumpprovidedastatementtoABCNewssaying,Itisalwaysagreathonortobesonicelycomplimentedbyamansohighly
respectedwithinhisowncountryandbeyond.Trumpwenton:IhavealwaysfeltthatRussiaandtheUnitedStatesshouldbeableto
workwellwitheachothertowardsdefeatingterrorismandrestoringworldpeace,nottomentiontradeandalloftheotherbenefits
derivedfrommutualrespect.

Highlyrespected?DoesTrumpnotunderstandhowtheKremlinmanipulatesthemediaandeliminatesoppositionpoliticalfiguresand
independentjournalists?

TrumpsreactionwasmoreembarrassingthanthenewsthatBolshevikBernieSanders,whoisrunningfortheDemocraticpresidential
nomination,hadhoneymoonedintheoldSovietUnion.BasedonhispraiseforPutin,whoranoneofthesuccessoragenciestothe
KGBbeforehebecameRussianpresident,Trumpmayturnouttobeanotherbillionairemorecomfortablewiththepoliciesofthe
DemocraticParty.

Duringthe2012campaign,inthefinalpresidentialdebate,RepublicanpresidentialcandidateMittRomneycalledRussiaageopolitical
foe.PresidentObamamockedhim,sayingRomneywasstuckinthepast.TheObama/HillaryClintonpolicywastheRussianre-set,
whichwassupposedtoincreasetradeandpoliticalcooperationwiththePutinregime.Instead,itsetthestageforPutinsinvasionof
Ukraine.Beforethat,in2008,RussiahadinvadeditsformerRepublicofGeorgia.

TrumpseemsnottounderstandhowtheObama/ClintonRussianpolicyfailed.

Inthecurrentcampaign,SenatorMarcoRubio(R-FL)hasbeenstronglycriticalofPutin,callinghimagangsterandanorganized
crimefigurewhocontrolsthegovernmentandalargeterritory.

Thatterritoryisgrowing.

Asabusinessmanhimself,TrumpshouldknowthatpropertyrightsarenotrespectedinRussiaandthatmostoftheimportantbusinessis
concentratedinthehandsofPutinsformerKGBassociatesandcronies.Thatmakeshiscommentsaboutdevelopingatrade
relationshipwithPutinevenmoreincomprehensible.

BusinessmanBillBrowder,whorananinvestmentfundinRussiacalledHermitageCapitalManagement,wasforcedtofleeRussiaafter
hisassetswerestolen.Hislawyer,SergeiMagnitsky,wastorturedandmurdered,andhisdeathhasbecomeaninternationalsymbolof
humanrightsviolationsinRussia.

TheevidenceshowsthatPutinandhisgroupofformerKGBofficersarelootingRussia,consolidatingtheirpower,andeliminating
throughtortureandmurderanyonewhogetsintheirway.Browdersbook,RedNotice,tellsthestoryindetail.Hiswebsite,Russian
Untouchables,namesthenamesoftheRussianofficialsinvolvedinthecase.

AfilmthatwasshownonDecember15attheNewseum,FromRussiawithCash,explainshowRussiangovernmentfiguresseekto
stealandlaundertheirmoneyabroadthroughrealestatetransactionsinvolvingshellcompanies.

PiersontoldCNNthatTrumpsacceptanceofthePutinendorsementwasmadeinthecontextoffightingterrorism,fightingISISinthe
MiddleEast.Shesaid,VladimirPutinhassteppedup.Manypeopledorespecthimforthat,includingAmericanswhomaynotlike
VladimirPutinbuttheylikethefactthathessteppingupandtakingactionagainstISIS.

PiersonisavictimoftheRussianpropagandaoperationsbeingwagedintheU.S.andothercountriesbysuchKremlinoutletsasRussia
Today(RT).

Putinhassteppeduptosavethelong-timeSoviet/RussianclientstateofSyria.Theotherguestontheshow,radiohostBenFerguson,
pointedout,PutinisproppingupAssad.Youshouldunderstandthat,soshouldDonaldTrump.ButTrumpapparentlydoesnot.

Whatsmore,theevidenceindicatesthatPutinsmilitaryhasbeentargetinganti-Assadpro-Westernrebelgroups,notISIS.Infact,
BritishForeignSecretaryPhilipHammondsayspro-AssadmilitarystrikeshaveallowedISIStoseekadvantageontheground.He
said,ThemajorityofRussianairstrikescontinuetotargetSyrianoppositionforces.

ISISitselfhasconfirmedinoneofitsownpublicationsthatRussiaismainlytargetingothergroups,declaringthatRussiaisbombingthe
alliesofAmericaandthatitsinterventioninSyriahasconfusedAmericananalysts,thinktanks,intelligence,andpolicy-makers.

Trumphastobeconsideredintheranksoftheconfused.

InthewakeofTrumpsgaffeduringtherecentdebate,whenhedemonstratedignoranceaboutthenucleartriad,hisacceptanceof
PutinsendorsementmayputthisbusinessmanintheranksofofficialRussiandupes.Ineffect,theleadingGOPpresidentialcandidate
hasbecomecaptivetoMoscowspropaganda.

OncethevotersunderstandhowTrumphasemergedasastoogeofPutininthepresidentialrace,hisdaysasaseriouscandidatewillbe
numbered.

Imlikeareallysmartperson,Trumphassaid.ThisisthecandidatewhoacceptspraisefromVladimirPutinandreturnsthe
compliment,butsayshedoesntwantJebBushsendorsementbecauseheisalowenergypersonandhedoesnotrepresentstrength,
powerandstamina,whicharequalitiesourcountrydesperatelyneeds.

Itmaybetoolate,consideringthedamagehiscommentshavecausedtohiscampaignandreputation,butTrumpoughttodevotesome
ofhisownenergytounderstandinghowtheKremliniswagingawarofpropagandaanddisinformationregardingsubjectslikethewars
inUkraineandSyria.HeshouldalsoreadbusinessmanBillBrowdersbookoncorruptioninRussia.
CliffKincaidistheDirectoroftheAIMCenterforInvestigativeJournalism,andcanbecontactedatcliff.kincaid@aim.org

---------Forwardedmessage----------
From:WalterDerzko<wderzko@pathcom.com>
Date:Sat,Dec19,2015at1:00PM
Subject:Putin'slies----6ofthemostoutrageousuntruthsfromyesterday'spressconference[Meduza]
To:1WalterZarycky<waz2102@caa.columbia.edu>,1WolodymyrZarycky<wzarcusur@gmail.com>,WalterDerzko
<wderzko@pathcom.com>

Putinslies

6ofthemostoutrageousuntruthsfromyesterdayspressconference

11:50,18DECEMBER2015MEDUZA

VladimirPutinspentthreehoursansweringjournalists'questionsyesterdayathisannualpress
conference.Severaltimesduringthatmarathon,heplayedfastandloosewithfactsand
statistics.Meduzahighlightssomeofthemostegregiousuntruths.

Cargotrucksandpassengervehiclespaythesamevehicletax.

InPutin'swords:Amotorvehicletaxisthesameforpassengercarsandtrucksweighing12tonnesor
more.[...]Expertssaythatduringaccelerationandbraking,12-tonnetrucksdomoredamagetotheroad
bedthancars.However,theypaythesameamount.Thisproposalseekstocreatealevelplayingfield
foralltypesoftransport.

Infact:Taxratesfortheownersoftrucksandcarsaredifferent.Bylaw,thefederalgovernmentonly
setstheframeworkforvehicletaxrates,butregionalofficialscanraiseordecreasetheserates.Ifyou
lookatthetaxratessetdownbyregionallaws,it'sclearthatpassengervehiclesandcargotruckspay
differenttaxes.Forexample,inSt.Petersburg,apassengercarbetween100and150horsepowerpays
35rubles,whiletrucksofthesamehorsepowerpay40rubles.Andsometimes,itsohappens,cargo
trucksactuallypaylowertaxesthanordinarycars.
Muscovitescanparkneartheirhomesforfreeandeveryoneissatisfied.

InPutin'swords:Andparkingisfreeforpeoplewholiveinthebuildingsnexttothesecarparks.I
canassureyouthatthecitizensconcerned,theMuscoviteswholivenearthesecarparks,aremorein
favorofthepolicythanagainstit.Thechargesapplytothosewhoarrivefromotherdistrictsorother
regions:fromtheMoscowsuburbsandsoon.
Infact:WillingMuscovitescanobtainaso-calledresidentialpermittoparkforfreeneartheirhomes.
Butthisbenefitappliesonlybetweenthehoursof8p.m.and8a.m.For24-hourparking,you'vegotto
pay3,000rubles($42)ayear.DespitePutin'sconfidencethatMuscovitesaremoreinfavorthan
againsttheparkingfees,arecentLevadaCentersurveyshowsthatonlyintheverycenterofMoscow
doesthepolicyenjoynarrowsupport(57percent),whereasresidentsinMoscow'soutskirtsopposethe
newfees76percentto15percent.Justthispastweek,moreover,roughly1,000demonstratorsgathered
indowntownMoscowtoprotesttheparkingfees,resultinginseveraldetentionsbypolice.
Tatarstancandecideforitselfwhattheheadofitslocalgovernmentiscalled"head"or"president."

InPutin'swords:AsforthepresidentofTatarstan,thereisasayinginRussia:Callmeapotbutheat
menot.ThisisTatarstansbusiness.Idonotthinkthatthisissuchasensitiveissueorthatitcouldhurt
nationalfeelings.YouknowthepeopleintheCaucasusalwaysreactvehementlytoallissuesrelatedto
theirnationalidentity.However,evenChechnyasaid:no,thecountryshouldhaveonlyonepresident,
andwewillnotcalltheheadoftherepublicthisway.ThiswasthechoiceoftheChechenpeople.We
willrespectthechoiceofthepeopleofTatarstan.Itisuptoyoutodecide,allright?
Infact:TheChechenpeopleplayednoroleindecidingwhattocallRamzanKadyrov.(Heusedtobe
therepublic'spresident,whereastodayheistherepublic'shead.)Therewasnoreferendum.The
ChechenparliamentmerelyrenamedKadyrov'spositionatKadyrov'sownrequest,whichwas
promptednotbythewillofthepeople,butKadyrov'sownwhim.(Hedecidedthatonlyonepersonin
Russiashouldbecalledpresident,inagestureofservilitytoPutin.)
TheTatarpeoplearealsounlikelytogetasayinwhattheirrepublic'sleaderiscalled.Thereisa
federallawcomingintoeffectonJanuary1,2016,thatdesignatestheleadersofRussianrepublicsas
headsandnothingmore.Atthispoint,onlythefederalgovernmentcanrollbackthisreform.
Russianofficialsdidn'tknowthatTurkeyopposesthebombingofSyrianTurkmen.

InPutin'swords:Yousee,IhadnotheardabouttheTurkomans(SyrianTurks)before.Iknewthat
TurkmenourTurkmenlivedinTurkmenistan,andsoIwasconfusedNobodytoldusaboutthem.
ButafterweindicatedourwillingnesstocooperateontheissuesthataresensitivetoTurkey,why
didn'ttheyphoneusviathecooperationchannelsbetweenourmilitariestosaythatduringour
discussionsweoverlookedacertainpartoftheborderwhereTurkeyhasvestedinterests.Theycould
haveexpressedtheirconcernsoraskedusnottohitcertainareas.Butnobodysaidanything.
Infact:There'snowaytheRussianauthoritiesdidn'tknowwhoSyrianTurkmenare.TheTurkmenare
anethnicgroupofTurkicheritage,andareconsideredtobethethirdlargestminorityinSyria.Turkey
hastraditionallysupportedtheTurkmen.SeveraldaysbeforeTurkeyshotdownaRussianbomber,
TurkishofficialssummonedtheRussianambassadorandformallyprotestedRussianairstrikesagainst
TurkmensettlementsinSyria.
Foreignersdon'twanttoadoptsickchildren.

InPutin'swords:HereshowwewillworkLetsstartfromthelastpartofyourquestion.Idlike
topointoutthataccordingtostatisticsthenumberofsickchildrenadoptedbyforeignersisfarbelow
thatofhealthyones.Noforeignerhaseverrushedtoadoptoursickchildren.Thisisstatistics.Solets
nothurrytochangethedecisionsthatwevealreadymade.Thisisthefirstthing.

Infact:Statistically,foreignersadoptmorehealthychildrenthansickordisabledchildren,butthisisa
misleadingwayoflookingatthephenomenon,giventhatadoptionsofhealthychildrenarealwaysmore
common,regardlessoffosterparents'origins.In2012,Russianandforeignparentsadopted9,169
children,ofwhomonly200weredisabled.Ofalladoptionsbyforeignparents,disabledchildrenwere
adopted6.6percentofthetime.AmongadoptionsbyRussianparents,however,thatfiguredropsto0.4
percent.Inrawnumbers,Russianfosterparentsadopted29childrenwithdisabilitiesin2012,while
foreignparentsadopted171suchchildren.OneineverytenchildrenadoptedbyAmericanparentsthat
yearwasdisabled.
Russiawon'tlevysanctionsagainstUkraine.

InPutin'swords:WearenotgoingtoimposeanysanctionsonUkraineIwantthistobeheard.We
arejustswitchingtoamost-favored-nationtreatmentintrade.WhichmeansconditionsforUkrainewill
notbeanyworsethanthoseforourotherforeignpartners.

Infact:BeginningonJanuary1,2016,RussiawilllevyagainstUkrainethesamesanctionsitcurrently
hasagainsttheEuropeanUnion,theUnitedStates,Canada,andothernationsthathaveplacedsanctions
onRussiaforitsinterventioninCrimea.TheRussiangovernmentdecidedonthesesanctionsagainst
UkrainebackinAugust2015.

http://meduza.io/en/feature/2015/12/18/putin-s-lies

 From: KyleWilson<wilsonkyle81@gmail.com>
Senttime: 01/01/201603:25:53AM
To: RobertOtto<robertotto25@gmail.com>
Subject: Fwd:2015-#254-Johnson'sRussiaList-TheBestof2015

MatthewDalSantohawkshisproductenergeticallyinAustralia.It'ssubtextisalwaystharRussiaismoresinnedagainstthan
sinning.

SentfrommyiPad

Beginforwardedmessage:

From:JohnBesemeres<john.besemeres@anu.edu.au>
Date:1January201616:45:43AEDT
To:"wilsonkyle81@gmail.com"<wilsonkyle81@gmail.com>,"Wall,David(David.Wall@ona.gov.au)"
<David.Wall@ona.gov.au>
Subject:Re:2015-#254-Johnson'sRussiaList-TheBestof2015

selfcaricaturalissueofDJL.

From:DavidJohnson<david@cdi.ccsend.com>onbehalfofDavidJohnson<davidjohnson@starpower.net>
Sent:Thursday,December31,20155:29PM
To:JohnBesemeres
Subject:2015#254Johnson'sRussiaListTheBestof2015

Havingtroubleviewingthisemail?Clickhere

Johnson'sRussiaList
2015-#254
31December2015
davidjohnson@starpower.net
AprojectsponsoredthroughtheInstituteforEuropean,Russian,andEurasianStudies(IERES)atThe
GeorgeWashingtonUniversity'sElliottSchoolofInternationalAffairs*
www.ieres.org
JRLhomepage:www.russialist.org
ConstantContactJRLarchive:
http://archive.constantcontact.com/fs053/1102820649387/archive/1102911694293.html
JRLonFacebook:www.facebook.com/russialist
JRLonTwitter:www.twitter.com/JohnsonRussiaLi
SupportJRL:http://russialist.org/funding.php
Yoursourcefornewsandanalysissince1996
*SupportforJRLisprovidedinpartbyagrantfromCarnegieCorporationofNewYorkandtheOpenSociety
FoundationstotheGeorgeWashingtonUniversityandbyvoluntarycontributionsfromreaders.Thecontents
donotnecessarilyrepresenttheviewsofIERESortheGeorgeWashingtonUniversity.

"Wedon'tseethingsastheyare,butasweare"

"Don'tbelieveeverythingyouthink"

Youseewhatyouexpecttosee

DJ:Ijustdecidedtodothisyesterday.Astherehavebeenmorethan10,000
itemsinJRLin2015thisisatbestaverycursorysurvey.Manyverygood
piecesareleftout.Themaincriteriaisthattheauthorsaretryingtohelpus
understand.Ararercommoditythanitshouldbe.AsIhavesaidbeforethe
mostimportantthingstopayattentiontoarethemajorstatementsofRussian
leaders.Therestofthearticlesarenotinanyparticularorder.

Inthisissue
THEBESTOF2015
1.Putin.
2.Medvedev.
3.Lavrov.
4.RussiaDirect:TheUkrainecrisishasbecomemoredangerousthanjustanewCold
War.RDExclusive:RussiaDirectsatdownwitheminentRussiascholarRichardSakwaof
theUniversityofKenttodiscusshisnewbookFrontlineUkraine:CrisisintheBorderlands
andtoanalyzethegeopoliticalchallengesaheadin2015.
5.MoscowTimes:FyodorLukyanov,PutinWantsPeacefulCoexistenceWiththeWest.
6.CarnegieCouncilforEthicsinInternationalAffairs:TheUnitedStates,Russia,and
Ukraine:ReportfromMoscow.InterviewwithDmitriTrenin.
7.RussiaDirect:LegvoldandTrenin:HowtofixtheUS-Russianrelationship.Atarecent
symposiumhostedbyTuftsUniversity,twoleadingRussiaexperts-RobertLegvoldand
DmitriTrenin-discussedthefutureoftheU.S.-Russiarelationshipandwhatitwilltaketo
solvetheUkrainiancrisis.
8.Irrussianality:PaulRobinson,THENEEDFORSTRATEGICEMPATHY.
9.KarenHewitt:WhatisgoingoninRussia?TheviewsandvaluesofordinaryRussians.
10.RussiaInsider:AlexanderMercouris,MyFirst-HandAccountofaProvincialRussian
City(It'sBustling!).TravellingalongtheTransSiberianRailwayfromMoscowtoPerm
revealsabustlingmoderncity-totallydifferentfromthedarkprovincialRussiaofwestern
fancy.
11.TheNationalInterest:NicolaiPetro,Russia'sMoralFrameworkandWhyItMatters.A
lookintoRussia'smoralframeworkandtherelationshipithaswithreligionandstatevalues
couldhelpusbetterunderstandwhatmakesMoscowtick.
12.http://gordonhahn.com:GordonHahn,Putin:ARussianNeo-Traditionalist,Nota
WesternConservative.
13.Forbes.com:MarkAdomanis,Russia'sEconomy:NotJustNaturalResources.
14.ChristianScienceMonitor:FredWeir,SpurredbyWesterncriticism,Russians
experiencesomethingnew:patriotism.Inthepast,Russiawasanempire,thena
communistcolossus,thena'defeated'powerexpectedtoadoptWesternways.Butcurrent
tensionswiththeWestarefosteringwhatmaybethebirthofadistinctRussian
nationalism.
15.http://warontherocks.com:MichaelKofman,TheSevenDeadlySinsofRussiaAnalysis.
16.TheNationalInterest:MatthewDalSanto,Putin'sPopularity,Explained.
17.FinancialTimes:ThomasGraham,Europe'sproblemiswithRussia,notPutin.Moscow
isnotarisingrevolutionaryforcebutoneseekingtorestorepower.
18.TheIndependent(UK):MaryDejevsky,Onceagain,theWestfailstounderstand
Russia.Westernleadersarestayingawayfromthisyear'sVictoryDay,whichmournsthe
lossof20millionRussianswhodiedtodefeatNaziGermany.
19.RussiaInsider:Shellback,TwoCenturiesofRussianSurprises--WhyAreWe
Surprised?UnderestimatingRussiawillsurpriseyou.
20.Counterpunch.org:HalynaMokrushyna,PerpetratorsHonoringTheirVictims,orAn
IncomprehensibleLogicConcerningDonbas"Terrorists"
21.FairObserver:OlenaLennonandBrianMilakovsky,IsEurope'sBufferZoneinUkraine
KeepingitSafe?
22.www.rt.com""KievgovtresistsonlysolutiontoUkrainecrisis-fullautonomyof
Donbass."(interviewwithAnatolLieven)
23.RossiiskayaGazeta:SergeyKaraganov,BiddingFarewelltotheCivilWar.Anationthat
hasnotburieditsperishedfellowcitizenscannotrespectitselfandmoveforward.
24.SarahLindemann-Komarova:RunningforOfficeinSiberia:Andthewinneris...Lastina
seriescoveringtheDistrict#35NovosibirskCityCouncilelection.
25.www.belgraviadispatch.com:GregoryDjerejian,REALISTICAPPRAISALOFRUSSIA'S
POLICYISN'TTANTAMOUNTTOAPUTINAPOLOGIA.
26.TheUnzReview:AnatolyKarlin,RussiaandtheDepressionThatWasn't.
27.ValdaiDiscussionClub:DavidLane,IstheRussianFederationaThreattothe
InternationalOrder?
28.RussiaBeyondtheHeadlines:BryanMacDonald,Russiaavoidsrevolutionagain.
NaysayersarekeentopredictRussia'sdemise,butdespiteadifficultyearpoliticallyand
economically,thecountryhasfailedtofallapart.
29.MoscowTimes:MarkGaleotti,WestHasLosttheRighttoLecturePutin.
30.Journalitico:DanielleRyan,TheProblemWithPropaganda.

#1
Putin

http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/transcripts/press_conferences/49261
DirectLinewithVladimirPutin
DirectLinewithVladimirPutinwasbroadcastliveonChannelOne,Rossiya-1andRossiya-
24TVchannels,andMayak,VestiFMandRadioRossiiradiostations.
April16,2015

http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/50380
InterviewtoAmericanTVchannelCBSandPBS
VladimirPutingaveaninterviewtoAmericanjournalistCharlieRoseintherun-uptohis
addressattheUNGeneralAssembly's70thsession.
September29,2015

http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/50548
MeetingoftheValdaiInternationalDiscussionClub
VladimirPutintookpartinthefinalplenarysessionofthe12thannualmeetingoftheValdai
InternationalDiscussionClub.
October22,2015

http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/transcripts/messages/50864
PresidentialAddresstotheFederalAssembly
VladimirPutindeliveredtheAnnualPresidentialAddresstotheFederalAssembly.The
AddresswastraditionallydeliveredattheKremlin'sStGeorgeHallbeforeanaudienceof
morethan1,000people.
December3,2015
http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/50971
VladimirPutin'sannualnewsconference
ThePresident'snewsconferencewasbroadcastlivebyRossiya-1,Rossiya-24and
ChannelOne,aswellasMayak,VestiFMandRadioRossiiradiostations.
December17,2015

[returntoContents]

#2
Medvedev

http://government.ru/en/news/16508/
The6thGaidarForum
14January201512:30RANEPA,Moscow
TheGaidarForumisaninstitutionalplatformfordiscussingthekeychallengesfacingthe
worldtoday.Thecentralthemeofthe2015forumisRussiaandtheWorld:New
Dimensions.
http://government.ru/en/news/17768/
Governmentreportonitsperformancein2014
21April201512:00TheStateDumaoftheRussianFederation,Moscow
"TheGovernmentoftheRussianFederation(...)shallsubmittotheStateDumaannual
reportsontheGovernment'sperformance,includingonissuesformulatedbytheState
Duma."(ConstitutionoftheRussianFederation,Article114,Clause1,Subclause"a")

http://government.ru/en/news/18220/
DmitryMedvedev'sinterviewwithRossiya1TVnetwork
23May201512:30Moscowregion
PrimeMinistergaveaninterviewtoSergeiBrilev'sprogrammeVestivSubbotu.

http://government.ru/en/news/19772/
Thenewreality:Russiaandglobalchallenges
23September201520:00
ArticlebyDmitryMedvedev.

http://government.ru/en/news/20488/
DmitryMedvedevisinterviewedbyRossiiskayaGazetaonthepaper's25thanniversary
11November201500:00
DmitryMedvedevhaspresentedanHonoraryCertificateoftheRussianGovernmentand
respondedtoquestionsfromRGGeneralDirectorPavelNegoitsa,Editor-in-ChiefVladislav
FroninandcorrespondentVladimirKuzmin.

http://government.ru/en/news/20945/
InConversationwithDmitryMedvedev:Interviewwithfivetelevisionchannels
9December201512:00Moscow
PrimeMinisteransweredquestionsfromTVanchorsIradaZeinalova(ChannelOne),Sergei
Brilyov(Rossiya),KirillPozdnyakov(NTV),YelizavetaOsetinskaya(RBCTV)andMikhail
Fishman(TVRain).

[returntoContents]

#3
Lavrov

http://www.mid.ru/en/web/guest/foreign_policy/news/-
/asset_publisher/cKNonkJE02Bw/content/id/1475621
3June2015
RussianForeignMinisterSergeiLavrov'sExclusiveInterviewwithBloombergTelevision's
RyanChilcote,Moscow,June2,2015

[returntoContents]

#4
RussiaDirect
January5,2015
TheUkrainecrisishasbecomemoredangerousthanjustanewColdWar
RDExclusive:RussiaDirectsatdownwitheminentRussiascholarRichardSakwaofthe
UniversityofKenttodiscusshisnewbookFrontlineUkraine:CrisisintheBorderlandsand
toanalyzethegeopoliticalchallengesaheadin2015.
ByPavelKoshkin

WithnoendinsightfortheUkrainiancrisisin2015,leadingacademicsarebeginningto
offertheirinsightsonhowtoaddressthisgeopoliticalstandoff.AmongthemisRichard
Sakwa,professorofRussianandEuropeanpoliticsattheUniversityofKent.Hisnewbook
FrontlineUkraine:CrisisintheBorderlandsprovidesanexplanationoftheoriginsofthe
crisisinUkraineandtracksdownthecircumstancesthatprovokedtheintense
confrontationbetweenRussiaandtheWest,whichhasbeendescribedbysomeexperts
asanewColdWar.

"TheasymmetricalendoftheColdWareffectivelyshutRussiaoutfromtheEuropean
alliancesystem,"Sakwasaid."Thefailuretoestablishagenuinelyinclusiveandequal
EuropeansecuritysystemimbuedEuropeaninternationalpoliticswithpowerfulstress
points,whichin2014producedtheinternationalearthquakethatwecalltheUkrainecrisis."

Heseesthiscrisisas"theworstinternationalcrisisinEuropesincetheendoftheCold
War."AsSakwaseesit,thecurrentcrisishascalledintoquestiontheideaofaGreater
Europe,orawayofbringingtogetherallendsoftheEuropeancontinentintoanewgrouping
thatSovietPresidentMikhailGorbachevoncecalledtheCommonEuropeanHome.
AccordingtoSakwa,thecrisisisamajorchallengetoamultipolarandpluralisticconceptof
Europe.

RussiaDirectconductedaSkypeinterviewwithSakwatofindoutaboutthemajorideasof
hisbookandhowtheycanbeappliedtominimizethecurrenttensionsinrelationsbetween
Russia,Europeand-morebroadly-withtheWest.Inaddition,Sakwatalkedaboutthe
U.S.-Russiageopoliticalface-off,thecurrenteconomiccrisisinRussiaanditsimplications
fortherestoftheworld.

RussiaDirect:Yousaythatyournewbookis"anattempttoexplainhowEuropegotintothis
mess."So,howdidBrusselsandMoscowgetintothismess?

RichardSakwa:Thereareseverallevelstothis,andthefirstlevelistheoverallgeopolitical
one,thefailureoftheEuropeanUniontoachievewhatmanypeoplenowadayscallthe
GreaterEuropeanvisionofunitingthecontinentaftertheendoftheColdWar.Andthereis
thefailureofallsidesthatIcalltheasymmetricalendoftheColdWar.Thetwocame
togethertocreatethecrisis.

Andso,insteadofaGreaterEuropeanvisionthatisbuiltonGorbachev'sideaofaCommon
EuropeanHome,wehadanextensionofwhatIcalltheWiderEuropeanagenda,a
Brussels-centricviewoftheworld,accordingtowhichtheEuropeanUnionisthemainform
ofEuropeanunity.And,ofcourse,thisbydefinitionexcludesRussia.So,therewasan
exclusivedynamic.AndthefinalelementofthatisthatEuropeitselfbecamemoredeeply
embeddedinwhatIcallthe"newAtlanticism"-theeffectivemergeroftheEuropeanUnion
withNATO[andtheU.S.]Andthisisawholenewconstellationofpowerthatsystematically
excludesRussia.

Therewasanotherlevel:theinternalcrisisinUkraine.WehadtwovisionsofUkrainian
statehoodthathavebeencontested.Basically,thestrugglehasbeenbetweenthemonist
vision-thatis,anUkrainianizingversion-andamorepluralisticvision.Andtoday'sbattleis
notoverindividualforcesbutthestruggleoverwhowilldecidewhatitmeanstobe
Ukrainian.So,thesetwocrisescametogetherwithdevastatingconsequences.

ThemonistvisionappealstothetraditionofUkrainianstatehoodthatstressesseparation
fromothereastSlaviccountries,aboveallRussiaandBelarus.ItstressesUkraine's
distinctivedevelopment.Onthehand,thepluralisttraditiondrawsontheideaof
MalorussianismtosuggestthatUkraineisamulticivilizationalcommunityofdifferent
nations,althoughallcanbeequallyloyaltotheideaofanindependentsovereignstate.

RD:TowhatextentdotheseideashelptofindtherootsofthecurrentcrisisinUkraineand
understandit?

R.S.:WeneedtoadoptamorepluralisticvisioninunderstandingtheinternalUkrainian
issues,butalsoamorepluralisticvisionofEuropeaswell.WhatIamsayinginthebook
contradictsthosewhoseeAtlanticismandNATOenlargementastheonlygameintown.I
amsayingthattherearemoreoptionsavailable,abovealltheideaofamultipolarand
pluralistEurope.

Thiswouldhelptranscendthenegativelogicof"Russiavs.theWest"andoffertheideaofa
morepluralisticEurope.YoucanbegintomovetowhatIwouldargueforistheneedofa
Helsinki2Meeting,apeaceconferencedidn'ttakeplaceattheendoftheColdWar.This
wouldbeameetingofequalswithinUkraineandEuropewithequallydifferentviews-
Russia,Hungary,Turkey,Ukraine-aboutthechallengesfacingthecontinent.

RD:Onecouldarguethatmultipolarityisasortofbuzzword,usedbytheKremlininits
publicitycampaigntoaccountforitsrecentforeignpolicyinitiativestounderminetheUnited
States'globalinfluenceandpoliticalheft.Infact,itcanbeseenasatoolofRussia's
propagandatojustifyitscontroversialpolicyinUkraine.

R.S.:Ofcourse,multipolarityisusedinstrumentallybysomeRussiansonsome
occasions.Butthedebatetodayisn'tsomuchaboutsubstantiveissues,it'saboutwhohas
therighttohavedifferentviews.Thereisnotsomuchageopoliticaldebate:Discussions
todayareaboveall"geoideological,"atypeofcontestationinwhicheverybodytriestode-
legitimatetheviewsofothers-nottodefeatthemintermsoflogic(asitwere),buttode-
legitimatetheveryexistenceofanalternativeview.Thatisafundamentaldangerthatthe
worldfaces.Inanutshell,itishegemonismvs.apluralistreality.

RD:Yes,butagainthewaragainsthegemonismisusedbytheKremlintopointfingersat
Washingtonandblameitspolicy,whileU.S.attemptstoexertitsinfluencecanbejustseen
asanattempttomaintainitsleadershipthatitachievedthankstoitseconomicand
geopoliticalclout.

R.S.:Leadershipisacodeword.Otherswouldcallithegemony.And,ofcourse,theUnited
Statestriestomaintainitshegemonyintheformofaclaimtoworldleadership.Ontheone
side,theUnitedStatesconsidersitsleadershipasaguaranteeofarangeofliberal
universalpublicgoods.

ButthereisanothersideoftheU.S.hegemonywhichisfardarker,farmoreimperialistic.
ThereisaconstantbattlegoingonwithintheUnitedStatesbetweenitsliberaluniversalism
andmilitaristichegemonism.MyfinalpointisthattheworldischangingandtheU.S.hasto
learntoshareleadershipwithothers.Andthisisthebiggestchallengeforit.

RD:Doyouagreethatnowwearewitnessinganew(full-fledged)ColdWarbetween
RussiaandtheWest,orisitjustacyclicalconfrontation,provokedbytheCrimeatussle?

R.S.:ItisnotaColdWar,butisnotcyclicaleitheritismoresubstantivethanjustnormal
upsanddowns,farmoresubstantive,thisisthemomentoftruth.So,weareintoanewball
gameentirelyreflectingsomefundamentaleconomicandpoliticalshiftsinworldpower.
However,Iwouldn'tcallthisa"ColdWar"becausetheterm"ColdWar"focusesattentionon
thepast,whereastoday'sconflictissomethingfundamentallynew.

RD:So,howshouldwecallit?

R.S.:Youcancallitanintensificationofthecoldpeacehowever,Iamaverseaboutthe
term"ColdWar"becauseifyouusethetermmeansthatyoulosetheintellectualspecificity
ofthepresentsituation,theconstructionalframeworkofwhatmakesthisconflictepochal.
Thistermismisleading.Again,weareintoanewballgame.Whatisthenewballgame
called?Idon'tknow,butIamworkingonit.

RD:Previously,youmentionedtwooriginsoftheUkrainiancrisis-geopolitical(thefailureof
theGreaterEuropeproject,NATOexpansion)andinternalones(thefailureofagreementon
thenatureofUkrainianstatehood).Givenallthis,whatshouldwedotominimizethe
implicationsofthecrisisinUkraine?

R.S.:Everybodyhastomakecompromises.Ontheoneside,Russiahastomake
unequivocalcommitmenttoUkrainianintegritywithoutCrimea.Ofcourse,thereshouldbe
compromisesfromtheWesternsideaswell.However,atthemoment,thereisno
intellectualframeworkintheWesttounderstandwhatisgoingoninRussia'sforeignpolicy
and,morebroadly,tothestructureofinternationalpower.Thepointisthatifthecrisishad
notbeenprovokedbythesituationinUkraine,thennodoubtsomethingelsewouldhave
actedasthecatalyst.AswesawbeforetheSochiOlympics,therewasanextraordinarily
tenseenvironmentforatleasttwoyearsbeforeEuromaidanandCrimea'sannexation.

AndAtlanticistsareinstrumentallyusingthiscrisisthisnow.Ithastobeaverypatient
intellectualworkexplainingthatthesituationismorecomplexthantheAtlanticists-
includingneo-consinLithuania,UK,theU.S.andelsewhere-wouldpresentit.Itisavery
dangerousconstellationofpowerdominatingatthemomentinWesternthinking,andthere
isadisturbingabsenceofcritique-thelackofintellectualchallenge.

RD:GiventheRepublicans'dominationintheU.S.Congress,theirhawkishattitudetothe
KremlinandPutin'shawkishintransigence,willMoscowandWashingtonbeabletofind
commonground?

R.S.:Idon'tthinkthingsaregoingtobebetterforthenextfewyears.Itisacomplete
stalemate.Ontheonehand,themajorgoalistounderstandthedynamicsofthestandoff.
Andbyunderstandingthedynamics,youcandevelopalternatives.WithRussia'srelations
withtheUnitedStatesgoingtobebadformanyyears,theEuropeanUnionandsome
leadingEuropeanstatescouldactasintermediariestobegintode-escalatethecurrent
conflict.

RD:Previously,GermanyhasbeenasortoftheintermediarystatethatcouldhelpRussia
andtheWestfindcommonground.Butnow,Berlinseemstohavebeendisappointedby
Russia'sreluctancetocomeupwithacompromise,asindicatedbyarecentinterviewof
GermanyChancellorAngelaMerkel.So,whowillhelptheKremlininthiscase,ifevenits
traditionalandreliablepartnersseemtobegivingup?

R.S.:IthinkthatGermanyisstillabletoactasaninterlocutorinageopoliticalsenseto
regulatetheUkrainiancrisis.However,GermanyunderMerkelhastotakebigdecisions:
NowitismoreimportantforBerlintomaintainitsallianceandallegianceswithintheAtlantic
community,toensuretheconsolidationofitsinfluencewithintheEuropeanUnion.

ThespecialrelationsbetweenRussiaandGermanyforthetimebeingareover,but
GermanyisstillanimportantactorinregulatingboththeUkrainianandthebroader
Europeancrisis.Yet,itdoesn'tmeanthattodayRussiahasalmostnoonetoworkwith
withintheEuropeanUnion.

RD:WhataboutFrance?Doesithavethepotentialtobeaninterlocutorbetweenthe
KremlinandtheWest,giventheDecembervisitofFrenchPresidentFrancoisHollandeto
MoscowtofindcommontheUkrainiancrisis?

R.S.:Previously,FranceinvitedRussianPresidentVladimirPutinandhisUkrainian
counterpartPetroPoroshenkotoNormandyinJune,whichwasquiteuseful.So,thereis
thepotentialforFrance.Butontheotherhand,PresidentHollande'spositionis
exceptionallyweakinternally.So,hewon'tbeabletodomuch.

RD:So,whatotherEuropeancountriescanbeseenasintermediariesinthiscase?

R.S.:Equally,Italycouldbealsoagoodpartner,withstrongeconomiclinkstoRussiaand
anindependentpositioninEuropeanpolitics.Therearefewcountriesthatmaybeableto
findawayoutfromtheimmediateconflictand,mostimportantly,animmediatesolutionof
theUkrainiancrisis,becauseitisapermanentsourceofcrisisintheEuropeanbodypolitic.

TherearenoothercountriesthatcaneffectivelyacttoregulatetheEuropeancrisisindeed,
theUK,LithuaniaandothershavebeenabletoturntheEuropeanUnionfromapeace
projecttoonethatcontinuestheColdWarbyothermeans.

RD:HowdoyouseeResolution758adoptedbyU.S.HouseofRepresentativesandthe
UkraineFreedomSupportAct,bothaimedatcondemningRussiaforitspolicyinUkraine?
DoyouagreethatthesedocumentscouldfuelfurtherU.S.-Russiaconfrontationandleadto
awar,assomepredict?

R.S.:Oneandtheotherresolutionobviouslyonlyexacerbatethesituation.Theyreflecta
verynarrowvisionoftheworld.Thesedocumentsarenothelpfulatall.Theyarebasically
declarationswhichcouldleadtorenewalofconflictinUkraine.Weareinasituationof
extraordinarydangerforhumanityweareinapre-warsituationnowandweneedtofind
argumentsforpoliticianstocalmthemdown.Theseresolutionsmightbringusclosertothe
abyss.Weshouldn'tunderestimatethedangerthathumanityfindsitselfin.

RD:DoyouagreethatRussia'scurrenteconomicturbulence(fallingruble,shrinkingGDP,
gloomyforecastsfor2015)istheresultoftheWestern-ledsanctionsand"thepricefor
Crimea,"astheKremlin'spoliticalopponentsargue?

R.S.:Absolutely.Russia'sweakeconomybecomesweakeraftersanctions:Ithasbeen
punishedforitsactionsandthetensionsofalargergeopoliticalandEuropeansituation.

RD:Ifafull-fledgedcrisishitsRussiain2015-2016,willRussia'scurrentpoliticalregime
survive?

R.S.:Thecrisiscouldgetfarworse.Nevertheless,theregimehasenormouspopular
support,asindicatedfrompublicopinionpolls.Butthissupportisbuiltondeliveringpublic
goods-security,risingstandardsoflivingandsoon.Theregimewillsurvive,althoughit
maybeforcedtochangesomeofitscharacteristics.Thesystemisverycomplex,with
manydarksidesaswellaspositivesaspects.ThedangeristhatMoscowwilloverreact
andprovokeachainreaction.Inthissituation,Russiashouldadoptacalmpositionand
reactwithoutexcesses.

RD:SomearguethattheeconomicandpoliticalcrisisinRussiamightbackfireandhave
negativeimplicationsfortherestoftheworld.Isitreallythecase?

R.S.:Itcould.EventhoughRussiaisnottheworld'sbiggesteconomy,itisoneofthe
biggest:Itrepresents4percentoftheworld'sGDPandwasthe8thlargesteconomyinthe
world(beforetherublecollapse).In1997,eventherelativelysmalleconomyofThailand
wasenoughtocauseaneconomicmeltdowninSoutheastAsiaand,then,aglobalcrisis
soamajoreconomiccrisisinRussiacouldhaveadevastatingeffectontheEuropeanand
worldeconomy,whiledestabilizingworldeconomicandglobalgovernance.

[returntoContents]

#5
MoscowTimes
April20,2015
PutinWantsPeacefulCoexistenceWiththeWest
ByFyodorLukyanov
FyodorLukyanoviseditorofRussiainGlobalAffairs.

Thelatestlivecall-inshowinwhichPresidentVladimirPutinansweredquestionsfrom
ordinaryRussiansdidnothaveanysensationalhighpoints,butitwasanimportant
indicatoroftheleader'smood.

Putinrepeatedallofhisstandardphrasesandideas,butwithoutthepassionandtension
seeninmanyofhispublicappearancesinrecentyears.Hiscommentsrevealednodesire
foranescalationofthecurrentconflict.Ifanything,theyconveyedacertaincalmfatalism,
thoughnothopelessness.

Putinconcededthat,yes,acertainsituationhadarisenduetosanctionsandworsening
relationswiththeWest,butthatRussiamustlookfornewopportunitiesandusethecurrent
circumstancestoitsadvantage.

Putinalmostcompletelyrefrainedfromhisusualaccusationsandrecriminationsagainst
theUnitedStates,notbecausehehadachangeofheart,butbecausehispositionisso
clearthatitrequiresnofurtherexplanationorrepetition.Andjudgingfromthecomments
fromviewersthatappearedinacontinuousrollingtextonthescreen,nobodyneededany
convincingwithregardtotheUnitedStates.

AtypicalexchangeconcernedthefateoftheMistralwarships.Putinsaidthatthefaileddeal
wasnotaproblem,thatRussiadidnotreallyneedtheshipsanywayandhadonlyordered
themtostrengthenrelationswithFrance.HeaddedthatRussiadoesnotneedFranceto
payapenaltyforbreachofcontract,thatParisshouldsimplyreturnthemoneyMoscowhas
alreadypaidfortheships.

AmoreinterestingmomentcamewithaquestionaboutrecentattemptstoequateStalinism
withNazism.Putininitiallygaveatraditionalexplanationofwhy"theuglynatureoftheStalin
regime"wasincomparabletothecrimesoftheNazis.

Andthenhemadethisunexpectedremark:"Intruth,we,orratherourpredecessors,gave
causeforthis.Why?BecauseafterWorldWarII,wetriedtoimposeourowndevelopment
modelonmanyEasternEuropeancountries,andwedidsobyforce.Thishastobe
admitted.Thereisnothinggoodaboutthisandwearefeelingtheconsequencesnow.
Incidentally,thisismoreorlesswhattheAmericansaredoingtoday,astheytrytoimpose
theirmodelonpracticallytheentireworld,andtheywillfailaswell."

Thatputaninterestingtwistonthegovernment'smassivecampaigntoforbidany
denigrationofthepast-inotherwords,toprohibitcastingdoubtontheactionsoftheSoviet
Union.ItwouldnormallybeunacceptabletocomparethepastactionsoftheSovietUnion
withwhattheUnitedStatesisdoingtoday,butthatisexactlywhatPutindid.

Anditsendsawake-upcalltothosewhohadbeenhopingtobuildRussia'sfutureoutofits
Sovietpast.
Andalthoughtheshowlackedanyremarkablehighlights,itofferedplentyoffoodforthought
andmarkedaconclusionofaperiodpackedwithemotionsandevents.Fortheauthorities
tomaintainthestronganti-Westernsentimenttheyhavemanufactured,theymustnowtake
theconflicttothenextlevel,andthatisdangerousandextremelyexpensive.

Turningbackisimpossible.TheCrimeandecisionisirreversible,withoutputtingtheentire
politicalmodelatrisk.AnybacktrackingonsupportforeasternUkrainewouldleadto
seriouspoliticalrepercussionsathomeandwouldgenerallybeperceivedasacleardefeat
fortheKremlin.

MoscowcannotrestoreitsformerrelationswiththeWest.Regardlessofwhethersanctions
arelifted,thebasisforcooperationthatwasrootedinthebalanceofpowersofthe1990s
hasbeenlost.AndRussiahasnoanalogousrelationsleftwithotherpartners.Itsonly
choicenowistolookforsuchopportunitieselsewhere,withnoguaranteeitwillfindthem.

ThatiswhyMoscowprefersthestatusquothatdevelopedbetweenRussiaandtheWest
followingtheacutephaseofthewarinUkraine.Touseatermthatisonceagaininvogue,
Russiaisenteringintoa"frozenconflict"withEuropeandtheUnitedStatesthatnoneofthe
partieslike,butthattheyallprefertoopenconflict.

ItisnocoincidencethatPutindevotedagreatmanyofhiscommentstomacroeconomic
indicatorsinRussia.Heseemedtobepleasantlysurprisedthatthesituationisunder
control,andthatthingsareactuallyimprovinginsomeareas-especiallybecausethe
economicoutlookattheendoflastyearwasbleak,tosaytheleast.Thepresident
mentionedseveraltimesthatRussia'seconomyhadwithstoodtheheavyblowitreceived,
andheapparentlyconcludedthatitcouldthereforecontinueoninitscurrentconditionfor
quitesometime.

TheKremlindoesnotwanttoprovoketheWestintoapplyinggreaterpressure,butitwill
refrainfromdoinganythingtoreducethecurrentpressure.Thatisafatalisticapproachthat
essentiallysays:"Whateverwillhappen,willhappen,buttheworstisbehindus."

IntheColdWarterminologythatisagaingainingcurrency,theconfrontationismovingintoa
phaseof"peacefulcoexistence."Thatisnotarapprochement,butrecognitionofthefact
thatneithersidecanfullygaintheupperhand.Andthatmeansbothmustcooperate
whereverpossibletominimizetherisks,evenifthatinteractionislimitedtocertain,specific
areas.

Ratchetingdowntheconflictdoesnotnecessarilymeanthatthetwosideswanttoendit,
butratherthatittheywanttocontainitwithinamanageableframework.Thisisespecially
importantnowbecausethenumberofprovocativeincidentsinvolvingwarshipsandmilitary
aircraftflyingwiththeirtranspondersoffhasincreasedmarkedlyinrecentmonths,
indicatingthatbothsideshavelargelyforgottenandmustquicklyrelearnthe"safety
measures"thatwereinplaceduringthefirstColdWar.

Thehistoryofthesecondhalfofthe20thcenturysuggeststhat,inevitably,relations
alternately"warm"and"cool"inaglobal"frozenconflict.""Peacefulcoexistence"always
followsheatedconfrontationwheneveroneorbothsidesfeelsithasgatheredenough
strengthtogainalittleground.

Ontheotherhand,duringthatColdWar,abalanceofpowersexistedthatguaranteed
neithersidecouldachievecompletevictoryovertheother.Thatmechanismismissingnow,
butthereisa"largerworld,"aninternationalcommunitypursuingitsownambitionsand
copingwithitsownproblemsquiteindependentlyofRussia'sconfrontationwiththeWest.

Thatfactexertsamoderatinginfluenceonthecontendingsidesbecausetheinterestsof
that"largerworld"mightormightnotcoincidewiththeirs.Thatcounterbalancedidnotexist
duringthefirstColdWarbecauseglobalpoliticswerecompletelytiedupintheU.S.-Soviet
confrontation.

Thedownsideofthecurrentphaseof"peacefulcoexistence"isitslackofinnerreflection
anddebate.Duringthecall-inshow,PutincategoricallyrejectedtheveryideathatRussia's
policytowardUkrainehadfailed.Hismessagewasessentially:"Russiaisnottoblame.It
didwhatithadtodo."
Westernleaderstakeasimilarapproach,heapingalloftheblameonRussiaandclaiming
thattheyonlywantedthebestforUkraine.Apparentlythetwosideswillbeginformulatinga
newpolicyonlywhenthesituationintheworldbecomessobadthattheyfinallyunderstand
thatoldColdWar-eraapproachesareinadequatetothecurrentsituation.

China'srisinginfluence,thewideninghavocthattheIslamicStateiswreakingandthe
greaterpotentialforbothprogressanddestructionthatnewtechnologieshaveunleashed-
alongwithnumerousotherfactors-arehasteningtheadventofthatterribleday.

[returntoContents]

#6
CarnegieCouncilforEthicsinInternationalAffairs
www.carnegiecouncil.org
February27,2015
TheUnitedStates,Russia,andUkraine:ReportfromMoscow
InterviewwithDmitriTrenin

DAVIDSPEEDIE:I'mDavidSpeedie,directoroftheprogramonU.S.GlobalEngagement
hereattheCarnegieCouncil.It'saveryspecialpleasuretowelcometodaysomeonewho
hasbeenagoodandtrustedfriendfortwodecades,Iwouldthink,DmitriTrenin.

LetmejustbrieflysaythatDmitriTreninservedintheSovietandRussianarmedforcesfor
twodecades,from1972to1993.HethentaughtattheWarStudiesDepartmentofthe
MilitaryInstitutefrom1986to1993.HeretiredfromtheRussianarmyin1993andthenheld
apostasaseniorresearchfellowattheInstituteofEuropeinMoscow.In1993,hewas
alsoaseniorresearchfellowattheNATODefenseCollegeinRome.Then,ofcourse,he
joinedtheCarnegieEndowmentforInternationalPeace,wherehenowdirectstheCarnegie
MoscowCenter.

SowithDmitriTrenin,wehavetrulyaseasonedperspective,bothfromthepointofviewof
militarypolicyandintellectualanalysisofthedevelopmentsinRussiaatthemoment.

Dmitri,awarmwelcometotheCarnegieCouncil.

DMITRITRENIN:It'sagreatpleasuretobewithyouhereattheCouncil.

DAVIDSPEEDIE:Wespokeafewmonthsago,Dmitri.Atthattimeyousaidsomethingthat
wasverystriking,andthatisthatwewouldlookbackontheperiodof1992to2014,barely
morethan20years,astheinter-ColdWarperiod.Iwouldassumethatnotmuchhas
happenedintheinterveningweeksandmonthstochangethatanalysis.

DMITRITRENIN:Unfortunately,IthinkwehavemoreevidencethatthisiswhatIthoughtit
wasandstillthink-aperiodbetweentwoconfrontationsbetweenMoscow,ontheonehand,
andtheUnitedStates,ontheotherhand.Ofcourse,youcannothavetheColdWarrepeat
itself,buttheconfrontationthatoneexperiencestodaycouldbeeverybitascoldand
potentiallycouldevenbemoredangerousthantheColdWarofthe1940sthroughthe
1980s.

DAVIDSPEEDIE:Whathasbeenlostatthismomentintime,itseemstome,istheability
thathasbeenattimeshaltingandincomplete,buteven,startingtowardstheendofthe
ColdWar-theabilitytofindsomekindofaccommodationbetweenthetwosides,asitwere.
TheRussianspecialistRobertLegvoldspokerecentlyofthelossofwhathecalled"useful
ambiguityintherelationship."Instead,wearekindofinwhatmightbeseenastheColdWar
atitsheight,placingallblameforallthatiswrongintherelationshipontheotherside,rather
thanrecognizingshortcomingsonboth.

Isthatprettymuchontarget?

DMITRITRENIN:Ithinkit'safairanalysis.IthinkwhathaschangedisalsotheideathatI
thinkbothsidessharedverymuchattheendoftheColdWarthatnoonewasperfect,that
mistakesweremadebybothsides,thatbothsides,ifyoulike,lostthebenefitofajointly
foughtandjointlygainedvictoryintheSecondWorldWar,thattheystumbledintotheCold
Warthattheydidn'tneed,andthattheycouldonlygetoutofthatpredicamentthroughjoint
efforts,recognizingagainone'sownmistakes.
Ithinkwenowhaveasituationinwhicheachsidebelievesithasamonopolyontruth,a
monopolyonwhat'sright,andtheothersideisbasicallydoingthingsallwrong.Thatis
potentially,asIsaid,adangeroussituation.

DAVIDSPEEDIE:Wearenothere,obviously,toassessblame.Itwouldbewrongtofallinto
thattrapofsayingthatonesideisallinthewrongandtheotherisintheright.However,
therearesomecommentatorsherewhofeelthattherehavebeenmeasurestakencertainly
inwhatyounowcalltheinter-ColdWarperiodthatweredesigned,ifnottohumiliate
Russia,atleasttogetthemessageacrossthattheColdWarisoverandwewon.There
areotherseriousthinkers,likeAmbassadorJackMatlock,forexample,whoservedunder
RonaldReagan,whobridleandareindignantatthatnotion.Hehaswrittenveryeloquently
astotheshortcomingsofthatview.

Ontheotherhand,PresidentPutinatonepointproposedanewpost-ColdWarsecurity
architecture.Ithink"fromLisbontoVladivostok"wasthesortofcatchphrasethere.Ithink
I'mrightinsayingthathe,andindeedYeltsinbeforehim,eveninquiredaboutNATO
membershipforRussiaandwerefairlysingularlyrebuffed.Putinhasbeenoneofthemost-
oneofthefavoritethingsattributedtoPutinishisdescriptionofthetragedyofthefallofthe
SovietUnion,buthealsosaysthattheSovietUnioncanneverbereconstructed.

What'sgoingoninthatwholeblame-gamescenariofromtheRussianpointofview?

DMITRITRENIN:Idon'tthinkoneshouldfocusverymuchontheapportionmentofblame.
Let'strytotakethesituationmoreorlessobjectively.

Russia,atthetimeofthedisintegrationoftheSovietUnion,wasintenselyinterestedin
beingdrawnintotheWesterncommunity.Therewasaveryclear,verybroadlysupported
notionthatRussiabelongedintheWest,thatRussiawasaEuropeancountrycoming
home.PresidentYeltsintalkedaboutNATOmembershipforRussia.Hisprimeminister
talkedaboutEUmembershipforRussia.PresidentYeltsinalsoaskedthen-president
GeorgeH.W.BushforabilateralU.S.-Russiamilitaryalliance.

SoRussiawasinterestedintwothings-actually,inonething:integratingitselfintothe
Westernsystem.ItalsowasreadytoacceptU.S.primacyinthatsystem,whichwas
extraordinary,ifyoulike,givenRussia'sattitudetoitssovereignty,independence,andstuff
likethat.

ButthiswasnotreallyappreciatedintheWest,intheUnitedStates,foravarietyof
reasons.Someofthesereasonsareprettyserious.Onewas,"Well,wedon'thavetodo
thatnow,becausewearenotpressedintoit."NATOdidnotcomeaboutassomeone's
intelligentdesign,butratherasaresponsetotheperceivedthreatofacommunisttakeover
inWesternEuropeandtheaggressivenessorwhateverofStalin'sSovietUnion.Thatwas
aresponse,ratherthanapolicythattheUnitedStateshadatthetimeoftheendoftheCold
War.

ThesituationwasabsolutelydissimilarattheendoftheColdWar.TheUnitedStateswas
notthreatenedbyanyone.Russia'sassistancewasnotneededinordertorepelthatthreat.

Secondly,Ithinkpeoplerealized,eventhoughnoteveryonetalkedaboutit,thatRussiamay
beweaktoday,RussiamayacceptU.S.primacyforthetimebeing,butlook20yearsdown
theroad.Russiawillbestronger.Itwillchallenge,onewayoranother,U.S.leadership.If
Russiaiscomingtotheclub,itwillnotbecomingthewayGermanyandJapanwere
coming-overtly,obviouslydefeatedpowers,theU.S.occupation.Russiawasgoingto
positionitselfessentiallyasaco-leaderalongsidetheUnitedStates.Thatwasaclearthreat
toU.SleadershipinNATOandotherWesterncouncils.PeoplethoughtRussiawithin
WesterncouncilswasnotgoingtodomuchgoodtotheUnitedStates.Potentiallyitcould
beaverydisruptiveforce.

DAVIDSPEEDIE:NATO,ofcourse,isinterestinginanumberofways.Irememberinthe
earlytomid-1990s,therewasawholeself-analysisofNATOanditsfuture.Infact,itmay
havebeenSenatorLugarwhosaid,"Outofareaoroutofbusiness."Inotherwords,NATO
hadto-and,ofcourse,withAfghanistanandelsewhere,towhateverextentonewantstosay
successfully,ithastriedtoreconfigure,tosomeextent.

Iwanttocomebacktotheperceptionquestionalittlebit,onbothsides,inaminute,but
clearlyweoughttotalkaboutUkraine,becausethat'swherethemutualangstcomesinto
sharpestfocus,currentlywhat'sgoingoninUkraine.Letmejustthrowoutacoupleof
thoughts.

Firstofall,inourlastconversation,youtalkedaboutmovementsintoUkraineasa
humanitarianinterventiononRussia'spart.Isthatanopinionyoustillshare?

DMITRITRENIN:TherearemanyelementstoRussia'sinvolvementinUkraine.Thereisan
elementofhumanitarianintervention.Thereisanelementofgeopoliticalstruggle.Thereis
anelementofallthecivilwarinwhichRussiaissupportingonesidewithinUkraine.So
therearemanyelementshere.

"Humanitarianintervention"-IthinkishowthisispresentedtotheRussianpeople.Russiais
therebecausetheUkrainianmilitary,throughitsindiscriminateuseofforce,isthreatening
thelivelihoodsandlivesofsomanypeopleinEasternUkraine,andRussiahastosupport
thosepeople.

Again,thisisonlypartofthestory,butthisisthepartofthestorythatgetsthemosttraction
intheRussianmediathesedays.

DAVIDSPEEDIE:Ofcourse,itgetsnotractionintheWesternmedia.Whathappensinthe
WestisthatPoroshenko,asIrememberwhenhewaselected,pledgedtoengagethe
peopleofDonbass,ofEasternUkraine.Ofcourse,theengagementturnedouttobemilitary
engagement.

Again,whatwetendtoreadintheWesternmediaishowRussia,forexample,didnotlive
uptotheMinskagreementfromSeptemberoflastyear,willprobablynotliveuptotheMinsk
agreementjustconcluded,thesecondround.Yetthereareallsortsofwaysinwhich
PoroshenkoandtheKievregimehavealsonotliveduptotheMinskagreementsintermsof
lookingtowardfederalarrangements,humanitarianassistance,somedegreeoffederal
accommodationofvariousthingsthatwereinMinsk,andIthinkweretakenout,butnow
ratifiedbytheRadaorwhateverhaveyou.Soagain,wegettheblamegamecominginto
play.

Inadditiontojustwhat'snotreportedintheWesternmedia,obviouslythereareotherthings
thatseemtoberelevant.Therearewhatarecalledthe"IronHorse"armedcavalryunitsin
theBaltics,theWesternmilitaryunits.ThereareU.S.warshipsandaircraftintheBlack
SeasupportingGeorgia.Arethesenotjustelementsofcontroversialbehavioronourpart
thatstokethefireevenmore?

DMITRITRENIN:IthinkwearewitnessingareturnofaColdWarmilitarystandoff"lite."
Thatisverysad,ofcourse.Butmorethansad,thiscouldleadtomilitarymiscalculation.
Thiscouldleadtotoocloseengagements,toomuchprovocationthatcouldamplifythe
movesoftheotherside.Youhaveadynamicwhichisnotonlyunhelpful,butwhichis
actuallydangerous.

Iwilladdtowhatyouhavejustsaid.TheRussianmovesofincreasingthenumberofflights
bytheRussianAirForce-sometimesthoseflightscomeclosetoWesternaircraft,and
WesternaircraftcomeclosetoRussianbombers.Peoplescrambletodefendtheir
airspaceagainstanintruder.Sometimesthatmayleadtoacollision.Itmayleadtoan
emergencysituation.It'sonethingtodealwiththatsituationwhenthegeneralenvironment
iscalmandsortofpeaceful.

Ofcourse,militarypeopleneedtotrain,noquestion.Theyneedtoexercise,noquestion.
Butundertheconditionsofaquasi-permanentcrisisintherelationship,accidentsofthat
kindcouldleadtoseriousbreachesofpeace.

DAVIDSPEEDIE:Againwearebacktothefuture,backtotheColdWar,inthesensethat,
yes,theyhavetotrain.Butwhenrelationshipsarebetter,shallwesay,whenthereis
dialogue,whenthereisback-channel,whenpeopleknowwhattheotherisdoing,thereisa
wayofsharing,"We'regoingtobedoingthis.We'regoingtobecarryingoutthese
exercises."Inatimelikethis,thesharingofwhatyouaredoingintermsofmilitary
exercisesmaybelost.Isthattrue?

DMITRITRENIN:Ithinkit'strue.Ithinkit'sverytrue.Ithinkwhatyousaidisalsoverytrue-
backtothefuture.Wearerevisitingsomeoftheelementsofalandscapethatwethought
waslonggone.Wethoughtthatitallbelongedinhistory.Weseethathistoryishauntingus.
Historyiscomingback.Thatisprettydepressing.

DAVIDSPEEDIE:Theotherthingis,weare,afterall,theCarnegieCouncilforEthicsin
InternationalAffairs,andoneoftheethicaldocumentsthatweliketorefertowithsome
frequencyareMorgenthau'sprinciplesofrealism.Therearevariousexcellentprinciples
containedtherein:avoidingthecrusadingspiritinforeignpolicy,beingabletoseethings
fromtheotherside'spointofview-notcapitulatingorautomaticallygivingin,but
understandingwheretheothersideiscomingfrom-anddon'tgetyourselfintoaposition
fromwhichthereisnoturningback.

TheseareallsortofethicalaswellasstrategicquestionsthatIthinkwefailtotakeinto
accountwhenitcomestoRussia,andparticularlythequestionofunderstandingtheother
pointofview.Iwrotesomethingrecentlyandreallyfocusedonthis.Thatis,thereisno
countryontheplanetwithwhichtheUnitedStateshasarelationshipthatcomparesto
Russia'srelationship-historical,cultural,ethnic,strategic-withUkraine.

YousaidsomethinginourlastdiscussionthatIreallywouldliketorepeat,becauseitwas
fascinating.Youpointedtoasituation100yearsagointhecivilwarinRussiainvolvingunits
intheeasternpartofUkrainethatwereonthesideofthecommunistsatthattime.Itwasan
interestingsliceofhistorythatshowshowfarthisgoes-well,itgoesbackfurtherthan100
years.Canyoujustrestatethat?

DMITRITRENIN:ThecivilwarthatfollowedtheBolshevikRevolutionin1917perhapswas
foughtmostintenselyinUkraine.Ukrainehadawholerangeofgroupswhofoughtfor
power.SomeofthemwerebonafideUkrainiannationalists,let'ssayofaWesternUkrainian
school.That'sthehotbedofUkrainiannationalism,intheformerconfinesoftheAustro-
HungarianEmpire,inLemberg,whichwasthenthenameforwhatisnowLviv.

ButUkrainealsohaditsfairshareofcommunists,allsortsofsocialists,andalsoallsorts
ofprettyanarchisticelements,someofthemsimplybandits.Allthiswentforthreeyears,
moreorless,theterritoryofUkraine,withitsvariousgovernmentssucceedingoneanother
inplaceslikeKiev,andsometimespeoplealigningnotsomuchwithsomebody,butagainst
somebody.Thereweresomefiguresthatreallyinspiredaweinlaw-abidingcitizensthat
remained,peoplelikeSymonPetliura,becauseoftheclearlyanti-Semiticelementinhis
group.

DAVIDSPEEDIE:And,ofcourse,LembergwasalsoalargeJewishpopulation.

DMITRITRENIN:Yes,butLemberginthosedayswasoutsideoftheRussianempire.Itwas
giventoPolandasaresultoftheFirstWorldWar.

Soitwasahodgepodgeofdifferentgroups.It'sinterestingthatinthosedaysUkrainehad
severalcompetinggovernments.What'snowDonbasswasknownin1918-1919asthe
Donetsk-KrivoyRogPeople'sRepublic.TheDonetskPeople'sRepublicdidexist.It'snota
newname.It'sveryinteresting.Wearenowdiscussingitasifit'sjustarecent
phenomenon.Itisarecentphenomenon,butithassomehistorybehindit.

TherewasanotherrepublicinLviv.ItwascalledWesternUkrainianPeople'sRepublic.
BeforetheareawasattachedtoPoland,theyusedtohavetheirowngovernment-very
briefly,ofcourse.

ThereweresomeRussiangenerals,UkrainianHetmans,Bolsheviks,whoever,whoruled
thevariouspartsofUkraineandviedforpower.And,asIsaid,therewasaverystrong
anarchisticelement.

I'msayingallthatbecausenotallofthatishistory.IfyouthinkthatDonetskandLuganskare
simplyproxiesoftheKremlin,youwillbedeludingyourself.Thereismuchmoretoitthan
justbeingKremlin-friendlyor"pro-Russian."Therearemanyotherthings.Ibelievethat
historymatters,anditmattersalotinUkraine.

DAVIDSPEEDIE:Exactly,andit'snotjustthatthatpartofitisnotnew,ishistory,butinthe
currentsituation,clearlyinWesternUkraineandinKievyouhaveafairlymotleyassembly
ofgenuinereformersofsomerathernastyforces.Someofthemarerepresentedinthe
post-Maidangovernment-Svoboda,whichhasbeencondemnedbytheEuropeanUnionas
racist,xenophobic,andanti-Semiticasrecentlyas2012.Sothereisthishodgepodgeof
characters,inwhatisnow,asitwasthen,asyoudescribed,aprofoundlydividedcountry.

DMITRITRENIN:Right.Thissituation,tosomeextent,continues.We'resittingherein
March2015.Wedon'tknowwhatwillhappeninUkraineoverthenext12months,towhat
extentUkrainewillremaininonepiece,whatthecombinedresultwillbeofheightening
economichardships,mountingsocialtensions,intensifyingpoliticalinfighting.

EvenifyouleavethewarintheEasttoonesideandfocusontherestofUkraine,thingsare
notgoingtobeveryeasy.Thingsarenotgoingtobeveryquiet.AsUkrainiansaddress
thoseverydifficultandseriousissues,quiteafewofthemmaybeledbythisorthatversion
ofanideologythatseekssimplesolutionstothings.

DAVIDSPEEDIE:Backjustforamomenttothequestionofperceptions,amilitary
presenceintheBlackSea,thelackofrecognitionoftheimportance-clearly,somehave
writtenthatUkraineisfarmoreimportantforRussiathanitisfortheWest.That'sseenin
someoftheindecisiveattitudeamongsomeEuropeans,forexample,onthequestionof
armingUkraine.Thereisafairlyhealthydebategoingoninthiscountryaboutwhetherwe
shouldbesendingheavyarmstoUkraine.

Again,howistheWesternperceptionseeninRussia?Clearlytherearesomenotable
exceptionstotheaveragecommentatorinthemainstreampress.JohnMearsheimer,
StephenWaltatHarvardwroteapiecelastweek."WhyArmingKievIsaReally,ReallyBad
Idea,"wasthefairlyevocativetitle.ImentionedJackMatlockbefore.

ButthereisalsoafairlyprevalentviewthatRussiashouldjustgetoverallthissenseof
post-ColdWarangst,NATOexpansion,thebombingofSerbia,missiledefense-"It'sallover
anddonewithjustgetoverwithit."

Mydistinctsenseisthatit'snotthateasyforRussianstotakeupthatpointofview,
particularlyinthecurrentsituationwithUkraine.Again,mysenseisthatthecondemnation
ofRussiaonallsortsoffronts,fromhumanrightstoconductinUkraine,thesanctions,of
course,andthethreats-thisisasortofcocktailthatonlyplaysintothehandsofanti-
Westernfeeling.

DMITRITRENIN:Ithinkthatithasalreadydonethatjob.Anti-Westernfeelinghasnever
beenasstronginthepost-ColdWaryearsasitisnow.Ithinkthatforavastnumberof
Russians,theUnitedStateshasreemergedastheprincipaladversary,whichisavery,very
sadfact.

Insomeways,thisisajudgmentthat-letmeputitthisway.Itwouldbewrongtoascribe
everythingtotheKremlinpropaganda.Alotofprettywell-educatedRussians,peoplewith
enoughtimeandenoughresourcestostudyinternationalrelationsthemselves,havecome
totheconclusionthatRussiaisessentiallyseenasthecountrythatlosttheColdWar,the
countrythathadtopaythepriceofdefeat,thecountrythathadbasicallynorighttoprotect
itsgeopoliticalinterestsoutsideofitsbordersthattherewerenolimitstohowfarNATO
expansionshouldgo.Russiawasnottobeconsultedonthatissue.Russiawasnottobe
consultedontheissueoftheenlargementoftheEuropeanUnion.

Again,thesovereigntyofallstatesbetweenRussiaandtheWestmatteredalot.But
Russia'suneaseorsuspicionsorwhathaveyouwithregardtotheWestcomingcloser
andclosertoitsownborderswasseenasessentiallyevidencethatRussiahasnotbeen
abletoreformitself.IfacountrylikeRussiaseestheUnitedStatesanditsalliesas
potentiallyanadversary,thenthereissomethingwrongwithRussia.IftheRussiansmilitate
againstNATOenlargement,itmeansthattheyhavesomenewimperialistdesigns
themselves.

Soyouhavethat.

DAVIDSPEEDIE:That'sanoddsortofswitchingofroles,isn'tit?Onesideisexpandingto
Russia'sborders,butwhenRussiaprotests,theyaretheoneswhoarethenew
imperialists.Thereisalogicalfallacytheresomewhere.

DMITRITRENIN:Thiswholeargumentisbuilton,Ithink,averyimportantstatement,avery
importantfoundation,andthatstatementrunslikethis:Therecanbenomoralequivalence
betweenRussiaandtheWest.That,Ithink,iskeytothenewnarrative.Ifthereisnomoral
equivalence,itmeansthattheWestcandoanythingbecausewhateveritdoes,itiseither
goodorwillbecorrectedbytheWestitself.Russiahasabsolutelynoright,nomoralrightat
all,toquestionanything,becauseit'sstillacountryonprobation.Itusedtobeacountryon
probation.Nowit'sthecriminalagain.Theoldcriminalhascomeback,theoldconvict.

That,Ithink,iskey.ItdoesnotonlypertaintoRussiaandtheWestitpertainstoRussia
andanyoneelse-RussiaandUkraine.Therecanbenomoralequivalence.Ukraineis
alwayshigher.Georgiaisalwayshigher.YounameanycountrywithwhichRussiamay
haveaproblemitwouldstandonahighermoralgroundintheeyesofthepeoplewho
adoptthatvisionthanRussiaitself.

DAVIDSPEEDIE:IntheStateoftheUnionaddressinJanuary,PresidentObamawaspretty
muchdismissive,bothintermsofsubstanceandtimeallottedtoRussia.Hesaidtwo
things.ThefirstwasthatbasicallyRussiawaschronicallyisolatedfromtherestofthe
world,andthesecondwasthatRussiawasaneconomicbasketcaseRussiawasin
economicfreefall.Ican'tremembertheexactwording.

Justtotakealookattheseinorder,itseemstomethat-well,what'sinterestingisthatabout
30yearsago,IrememberitbeingclaimedthatwewerepushingChinaintotheSoviet
camp.Nowitseemsit'stheotherwayaroundwe'repushingRussiaintotheChinacamp.
IthasalwaysbeenarguedthatRussia-Chinatogetherisnotalogicalpartnership,butitwas
onethatwasbeingrenderedinevitableorboundtohappen.

Obviouslyyouhadthebigoildealafewmonthsago,the$400billionoildeal,andthenthe
jointnavalexercisesthatwereannounced,Iguess,lastmonthorearlierintheyear,where
theChineseofficialwasquoted"resultedfromconcernwithU.S.attemptstoreinforceits
militaryandpoliticalinfluenceintheAsia-PacificRegion."

SonotjustChina,butitseemsthatwithRussiareachingouttoVietnam,toIndia,evento
Japan-isRussiareallysoisolatedatthispoint?

DMITRITRENIN:Russiaisnotisolated,Idon'tthink.Idon'tthinkit'spossibletoisolatea
countryofRussia'ssizeinternationally.EvenintheWest,it'snotisolated.Therearevery
clearproblemsinRussia'srelationswithWesterncountries,butIthink,asthechancellorof
Germanysaidmanytimes,youcannothavesecurityinEuropewithoutRussia,oreven
againstRussia,youcannothavesecurityinEurope.WhenthegoinggottoughinUkraine,
thechancellorofGermanyandthepresidentofFranceflewtoMoscowtodiscussthings
withVladimirPutin.

Laterthisyear,VladimirPutinwillbehostingtwoforumsinthecityofUfa,whichisjustwest
oftheUrals.OneforumwillbethatoftheShanghaiCooperationOrganizationthatunites
China,Russia,thecountriesofCentralAsia,andtowhichtwomajorcountriesare
accedingthissummer.OneisIndia.TheotheroneisPakistan.TheShanghaiCooperation
Organization,withRussiainthechair,ismovingtobecometheprincipalforumfor
continentalAsia.Itwillhaveinthesecondhalfofthisyearallthemajorpowersof
continentalAsiaasmembers:China,India,Russia.WecanaddPakistan.Wecanadda
fewothercountries.TurkeyandIranareveryinterestedingettingclosertothatorganization.

DAVIDSPEEDIE:Hasn'tIranhadanobserverstatusatsomepoint?

DMITRITRENIN:Iranhasanobserverstatus.Iranhasdesiredforalongtimetojoin.There
isaformalobstacleofUNsanctionsimposedonIranthatpreventsIranfrombeing
accepted.Butatsomepoint,thisthingmaygiveandIranmaybewelcomedasamember.

TheothergroupthatPutinwillbefetinginUfaisBRICS,ofcourse-Brazil,Russia,India,
China,andSouthAfrica.That'stheclubofthenon-Westernemergingeconomies.

RussiaisalsoreachingouttoseveralU.S.friendsandallies.Mr.Putin'svisittoJapanison.
Justlastmonth,aJapanesedeputyforeignministerwasinMoscowpreparinggroundfor
thattrip.RussiaisactivelypursuingrelationswithSouthKorea,anotherU.S.ally,aswellas
NorthKorea.RussiahassignedmajoreconomicdealswithTurkey,anotherU.S.ally,which
isanimportanteconomicpartnertoRussia,alsoapartnerinenergytrade.Egypthasseen
itsrelationshipwithRussiaimproveoverthelastyearorso.Iranian-Russianrelationshave
rarelybeensoactivelypursuedbythetwogovernments.

Apartfromthat,RussiahasbeentryingtowinnewfriendsinplaceslikeLatinAmerica,
SoutheastAsia,andelsewhere.EvenwithinEurope,Mr.Putinhasmadeararevisitthese
daystoHungarytotalkenergy.HehasreceivedthepresidentofCyprusinMoscow,who
basicallyofferedRussiabasingrightsfortheRussiannavyonhisisland.Russia'srelations
withIsraelaresolid,andtheyhavenotbeenaffectedsofarbytherapidandmassive
deteriorationinU.S.-Russianrelations.

SothepictureisverydifferentfromRussiabeingaroguestate,inisolation,reelinginits
owncageandunabletomoveanywhere.Thesituationisquite,quitedifferentthanthat.

DAVIDSPEEDIE:That'sterrific.Thankyou.

Brieflyontheeconomy,theideathatRussia'seconomyiscollapsing-itwasreportednottoo
longagothatMoody's,therespectedevaluation-typefirm,hassaidthatRussia'sreserves
areenoughtocoverexternaldebt,andthemovetothefloatingcurrencywilltosomeextent
mitigate,obviously,thespiralingdownofoilprices,thefluctuationsinoilprices.Clearlyoilis
stabilizingabit.It'snotjustRussiathatissufferingfromthis.

Again,itwouldseemtomethatit'sUkraineandthecollapseofthehyrvniathatperhaps
oughttoberegardedastheeconomicbasketcase,notnecessarilyRussiaatthispoint.

DMITRITRENIN:Well,RussiaandUkraineareinverydifferenteconomicsituations.
There'snoquestionthatRussiaisfacingthemostsevereeconomictestin15yearsright
now.ThekindofresponsethattheRussiangovernmentwillultimatelygivetothatcrisiswill
determinethefutureoftheRussianeconomy,andmaybemorethanjustthefutureofthe
Russianeconomyintheyearstocome.SoIwouldn'twanttominimizethechallengesthat
Russiaisfacing.

Ontheotherhand,thiscrisiscouldbeasalutaryone,ifproperlyused.Ifyouwanttoreform
youreconomy,diversifyit,makeitmodern,oilat$100isnotyourfriend,notevenoilat$80.
Ifoilhits$60,$50,or$40,thisiswhenyouhavenochoicebuttodiversify,buttoinnovate
anddootherthings.WhetherRussiawilldoitornotwilldependverymuchontheRussian
governmentandontheRussianpeople.

WhatI'msayingisthatthecrisisforthefirsttimeisgivingRussiaanopportunitytoweanoff
thisoverlybigrelianceonoilandgasandhydrocarbonsmorebroadly.

Ithink,asaRussian,youfeelthatyouhavenotdoneagreatjobwithyoureconomywhen
theeconomicsituationwasgood.TheRussianeconomytodayisnotwhatitcanbe.Ifyou
usethecrisistochangetheeconomy,tostartproducingmore,todevelopyourown
domesticmarketmore,todevelopyourparticularlymedium-andsmall-sizeenterprisesif
youmanagetode-monopolizeyoureconomysothatit'snottotallycontrolledbyafew
monopolieshereandthere,thenIthinkthiscrisiswillgodowninhistoryasagoodcrisisfor
Russia.

Ithinkpeoplearepreparedtosuffer,buttheywillnotsuffersimplytopleasethefatcats.If
theyseethatsomethinggoodiscomingoutofthegovernment'spolicies,thentheywould
acceptatemporarylossinlivingstandards,andtheywillbecompensatedbyadifferent
kindofaneconomyandadifferentkindofafutureforthemselvesandtheirchildren.

DAVIDSPEEDIE:It'sanexcellentprescription,Dmitri.Isitgoingtobefilled,especially
whenyoutalkaboutmonopolies?

DMITRITRENIN:Ihaveaproblemwiththat.Russiaisruledbythesamepeopletodayasit
hasbeenruledforthepast15years.Thepeoplewhomissedtheprevious15years,inmy
view,shouldnotnecessarilybetrustedtoreformnow.

ButI'mkeepinganopenmind.Thingsarechanging.Peoplemaychange.Peoplemaybe
rotatedoutofpower.Russiamayfinditselfinasituationinwhichitwillhaverunoutofall
badoptions.Whenyouhaveyourbacktothewallandallthebadoptionsthatyouhad
exercisedtotrytobuyyourselfmoretimesothatthingsremainedthesame,allthese
optionshavebeenexercised,thenyouhaveonlythegoodoptions.Butthegoodoptions
alwaystendtobethehardestandthemostdifficultones.

Idon'tknow.AsIsaid,IhavenoillusionsaboutthepeopleinpowerinRussiatoday,notthe
peoplewhowouldbeabletodo-Ithinkthereiscapacityforreform,noquestion.Russiahas
abodyofveryprofessional,veryexperiencedpeople.I'mtalkingmoreaboutthepolitical
masters.Thepoliticalmastershavelittleinterest,frankly,inreform,becauseitgoesagainst
thegrain.Itgoesagainsttheirowninterestsoften.We'llsee.

DAVIDSPEEDIE:Twofinalquestions,oneofwhichdealswithinRussiaitself.Youhave
indicatedthattherearevarioussortoflevelsor,shallwesay,differentkindsofforceswho
arepullingstringsorhavetheearoftheKremlinandsoon.

IthinkyouknowthatwehereattheCouncilforthelasttwoyearshavebeenembarkedona
majorprojectthatlooksatthenewEurasianisminRussiaandthewaythathasspreadinto
someoftheextremerightmovementsinEurope,basicallyacrossEuropeasfarasFrance,
theNetherlands,andsoonandsoforth.It'salittlecomplicatedinaplacelikeGreece,
wherethereseemstobesomedialoguewithboththeextremerightandthenewleftist
government,Syriza.It'scleartheyhaveaverycomplicatedsituation.

Canyousayalittlebitaboutthismovementthatclearlyis"anti-Atlanticist,"which,of
course,meanstheUKandtheU.S.basically?Howconnectedisitinthecorridorsof
power?Towhatextentdoitschiefproponents-andhere,obviously,thenameAleksandr
Duginhascomeupwithsomefrequency-whatsortofroledothesepeopleplay?How
influentialarethey?

DMITRITRENIN:Ithinkthattheyhavebeenabletorisefrombeingmarginal,underdogs,
almostirrelevantinthe1990s,tobeingverymuchpartofthemainstream,tobeingvery
closetoPresidentPutinandhisentourage.Thepeoplewhosharethoseviews-many
peoplewhosharethoseviews-formpartofwhatisknownastheIzborskClub,whichis
namedafterafortressontheRussianwesternborderintheBaltics,amedievalfortress.I
thinkthesepeoplehaveseentheirtheoriesvindicatedbywhathappenedinthelast25
years.Theyarehavingaballtoday.

Again,thisismoreofanintellectualmovement.Itfeedsintothegeneralphilosophical
environmentthatinformstheleadershipofRussia.Iwouldn'texaggeratethespecific
influenceofindividualmembersonthedecision-makingprocess.TheymaybeamongMr.
Putin'sfavoriteintellectualstoday,butMr.Putinhasremained,aboveall,apragmatist.

Eurasianismalsohasagoodanswer,atleastfromthestandpointofEurasianismitself,
abouttheWest.TheWestisnottobetrusted.YouneedtostanduptotheWest.Theywill
onlyrespectforceandtheyonlyrespectstrength.Soyouhavetobestrong,notonly
militarily,butalsoineconomicandotherways.

Idon'tthinktheyhaveagoodanswertotheriseofChina,anothergreatpowerthatmeritsa
lotofattention.Russiatraditionallyinsistsonbeingindependentandsovereign.Itdoesn't
mattersovereigntowardwhom,sovereigntowardthemostpowerfulnationofthetime.
Todayit'stheUnitedStatesofAmerica,sosovereigntyvis--vistheUnitedStatesisatop
goal.

ButinEurasia,itisChinathat'srising.It'sChinathatisbecomingthehegemonofEurasia.
YoumentionedPutin'sideasof"LisbontoVladivostok"asGreaterEurope.Therealitytoday
istheemergence,inmyview,ofwhatIwouldcallGreaterAsia,fromShanghaitoSt.
Petersburg,withChinaverymuchdrivingtheprocess.Eurasianistsareyettogivean
answertotheChinaissue.

DAVIDSPEEDIE:Abigquestion.

DMITRITRENIN:Itis,andaseriousone.

DAVIDSPEEDIE:Finally,backtotheBobLegvold's"thelossofourusefulambiguity"and
thefinger-pointingandsoon,andwhatthathasmeant.Clearlytherearenumerousmissed
opportunitiesintermsofglobalissuesinwhichtheUnitedStatesandRussiareallyhaveto
engageeachother,everythingfromclimatechangetocatastrophicterrorism-Russia,I
think,hashadmoreincidentsofterroristattackthananyothercountrysincetheendofthe
ColdWar-and,ofcourse,veryobviously,anissuethatyouthinkaboutalot,thearms
control,theIntermediate-RangeNuclearForcesTreatyandothersthatmaybeunraveling.
Istherenoback-channelcommunicationatthispoint?

Lookintoyourcrystalballandtrytogiveussomehope.

DMITRITRENIN:Ithinkit'sverysadthatwedon'thavethisback-channel.It'sverysadthat
theonlychannelthatseemstobeworking,atleastvisibly,istheonebetweenSecretary
KerryandMinisterLavrov.Thepresidentstalkoverthephone,butveryinfrequently,andI
don'tthinktheconversationpleaseseitherparty.

Ithinkthatinorderfortherelationshiptobestabilized-beforeitgetsimproved,Ithinkwe
needtohaveitstabilizedandhaveitfollowsomemutuallyagreedupontemporaryrules.
Forthat,Ithinkweneedsomelegworkandweneedsomebrainwork.Thiscanhardlybe
donebypeoplewhoareformallyongovernment'sduty,eitherinWashingtonorinMoscow.

Ithinkthat,ratherthanthat,trustedrepresentativesofthetwocountries'political
establishmentsneedtobeencouragedtoengageinseriousdiscussionsofvariousissues,
totallyopen-eyed,withoutanyillusionwhatsoever,butwithaclearaimofestablishingareas
whereU.S.-Russianinteractionisactuallyfeasible,wherethereisenoughofcommon
interestthatwouldmakethetwocountriescooperateinabonafidefashion.It'simportant
thatthepeoplewhoareleadingthatchargehaveeasyaccesstotheirpresidents.

Ihavesomethoughtsandideasaboutwhomightfulfillthatrole.Iknowthatafewattempts,
earlyattempts,havealreadybeenmadeinthatdirection.Muchofthat,Ithink,willhaveto
remain,forthetimebeingatleast,offtherecord,andpeoplewillnotbegivingmany
interviews.Butunlesswemanagethismechanism,installitandmanageit,we'regoingto
havearelationshipthatwillbesubjectedtosurprisesandthatcanbesuddenlywreckedby
astraybullet.Andthengodhelpus.

DAVIDSPEEDIE:Iwillresistthetemptationtoaskyoufornamesoftheseconstructive
individuals,since,asyousay,ithastobeofftherecord.

OurguesthasbeenDmitriTrenin,directoroftheCarnegieMoscowCenteroftheCarnegie
EndowmentforInternationalPeace.

Dmitri,thankyousomuchforyourtime,foryourinsightsonsomanyelementsofthisvery
complexsituationthatprevails,andforyourwisdom.

DMITRITRENIN:David,it'sapleasure.Thankyousomuch,

[returntoContents]

#7
RussiaDirect
www.russia-direct.org
March7,2015
LegvoldandTrenin:HowtofixtheUS-Russianrelationship
AtarecentsymposiumhostedbyTuftsUniversity,twoleadingRussiaexperts-Robert
LegvoldandDmitriTrenin-discussedthefutureoftheU.S.-Russiarelationshipandwhatit
willtaketosolvetheUkrainiancrisis.
EkaterinaZabrovskaya

ThereislittlechanceformovingU.S.-Russiarelationsforwardoutofthecurrentcrisisdue
tofundamentaldifferencesinhowbothnationsviewtheworld,sayRobertLegvoldof
ColumbiaUniversityandDmitriTreninofCarnegieMoscow.Theonlywayoutistostart
expertdialoguebetweenthetwocountriestohelpdecisionmakersfromMoscowand
Washingtoncomeupwithamutuallyagreeablesolution.

ThediscussionbetweenLegvoldandTreninwasacenterpieceofthefour-dayEPIIC
(EducationforPublicInquiryandInternationalCitizenship)Symposium"Russiainthe21
century"lastweek.OrganizedbytheInstituteforGlobalLeadershipatTuftsUniversity,with
thesupportoftheCarnegieCorporationofNewYork,theconferenceattractedleading
RussiaexpertstodiscusstopicsrelatedtoMoscow'sroleinthemodernworldorderand
thefutureofRussia-U.S.relations.

HereisanabridgedversionoftheLegvold-TrenindialogueattheEPIICSymposium.

IsthisanewColdWar?

RobertLegvold:Iamsomebodywho'sarguing-nottotheentirepleasureofmy
professionalcolleagues,peopleingovernmentwhetherinMoscoworhere-thatweare
indeedinanewColdWar.

Therearefeaturesofwhatishappeningnowintherelationshipthatdoeshaveclose
resemblancetotheearlyphasesoftheoriginalColdWar.

WhyIhavestartedthinkinginthesetermswasbecauseDmitriTrenininMarchof2014
wroteapiecethatwascalled"WelcometoColdWarII."

Withinafewmonthshechangedhismind.HesaidtheColdWarwasnottheright
comparison.WhiletheoriginalColdWarforthemostpartremainedcold,it'snotentirely
clearthatthisonewill.

So,Dmitri,wheredoyoustandtoday?

DmitriTrenin:Istandbywhatyou'vejustdescribed.Ibelievethathistoricalanalogiescould
beusefulbutonlytoanextent.

ItwasimportantlastMarchtosoundalarmbellsthatCrimeaandUkrainewerenotjust
temporarytransientphenomena,thattherewassomethingveryserioushappeningjustin
frontofoureyes.

TheColdWaranalogyinthosedayswasanappropriateone.Butthedeeperyoulookinto
that,themorethisanalogybecomesunhelpful.

Weareinconfrontation.Thebadthingaboutthisconfrontationisthatit'sheldverymuchon
theRussianside.Idon'tthinkthattheU.S.believesthatthisisaconfrontationwithRussia.
Foralotofpeople,Russiaisathreatbutnotabigone.As[U.S.PresidentBarack]Obama
said,somethingbetweenEbolaandISIS[IslamicStateofIraqandtheGreaterSyria].

ThestakesareverydifferentforWashingtonandMoscow.Thisinjectsaveryimportant
aspectofasymmetryintothesituation.

So,Iamdeeplyworriedandconcerned.Ithinkthisconfrontationcouldbemoredangerous
itcouldgetoutofhand.Itcouldpushusinadirectionthatpeopledonotanticipate.
BecauseduringtheColdWartherewasafeelingsharedbyeveryonethatitwasdead
serious.

Ifit'snotanewColdWar,thenwhatisit?

R.L.:Frommypointofview,therelationshiphasgoneoverthecliff.

Thereissomethingthathaschangedinthelastyear.

Throughoutmuchofthepost-ColdWarperiod,therewasatendencyonbothsidesto
operatewitha"usefulambiguity."Thatis,wedidn'tknowwhethertheothersidewasfriend
orfoe.

Nowthereisasymmetry,Dmitri.Eachcountryhasdefinedtheothersideasanadversary.
Thisisdeterminingourpoliciesmorethananythingelseinthepastandwillaffectthewayin
whichweredesignNATOtodealwithRussiaasathreat.

ThereasonwhyIusethephrase"ColdWar"isbecauseonlywiththatnotioncanyoubegin
toconveytheconsequencesofwhat'shappening.

ThetendencyintheU.S.istostartwithanassumptionthatthisisutterlyunequal:Russia
doesn'tmattertousinthewaywemaymattertothem.

Buttheconsequencesofhavinggottentothispointarenotmerelythedangersaround
UkrainebutaroundinstabilityinCentralEuropeasawhole.Itistheunpredictableregion
suddenlyagain.

D.T.:OneotherdistinctionbetweenthesituationtodayandtheColdWaristhat,asseen
fromthispartoftheworld,nocompromiseispossible.

IntheColdWaryoucouldcompromisewith[SovietleadersJoseph]Stalin,[Leonid]
Brezhnev,and[Nikita]Khrushchev.Compromisingwith[RussiaPresidentVladimir]Putinis
somehownotacceptable.

So,Iamprettypessimisticonwhereweare.

ThisisclearlymorethanjustaboutUkraine.It'sabouttwofundamentalthings.

ThethingfundamentalfortheU.S.isthatRussiaischallengingU.S.leadership,essentially
theworldorderthattheU.S.leads.Nomajorthingscangounpunishediftheygoagainst
thegrainofthepeoplehere.ThefundamentalthingforRussiaistheabilitytomovearound
withoutanyconstraintsanddowhattheRussianleadershipthinksisimportantforthe
Russiannationalinterest.

HowdidRussiaandtheUSgettothecurrentcrisis?

D.T.:We'vebeenbadlyservedbytheidea-averypopularoneinbothcountries-thatthe
U.S.,asseenfromRussia,isinadeepdeclineandthatRussia,asseenfromtheU.S.,has
beenindeclineforthepast25yearsandwillcontinuetobeindecline.

Thismisinformsusandpushesusalongaprettynarrowanddangerousroad.

R.L.:Frankly,itdoesn'tmakeanysensethattheU.S.-Russianrelationshipiswhereitis
today.

Iwasatameetingandoneoftheparticipantssaidtome:"So,areyougoingtogoandtryto
makesenseoutofsenseless?"Andthat'sessentiallywhat'sinvolved.

Howdidwegooverthecliffinourrelationship?Iampreparedtoplaceprimary
responsibilityforthefinalpushovertheclifftothedecisiontoannexCrimeafortwo
reasons.

It'sthefirsttimeamajorpowerhasliterallyseizedtheterritoryofasovereigncountrysince
WorldWarII.Secondly,in1994whenUkrainegaveupitsnuclearweaponsandsignedthe
Budapestmemorandum,thecommitmentintheU.S.,GreatBritain,andRussiawasto
guaranteeUkrainiansovereignty.AndnowwearetryingtocontroltheIraniannuclear
programandpartofthedealissecurityassurance.

Butwedidn'tgethereonlybecauseofwhathappenedbetweenNovember-Decemberof
2014andFebruaryof2015inUkraine.

WhateverthenatureoftheregimeinRussia,whateveryouthinkofitsmotivations,wegot
herebythethingswedidandwedidn'tdofor20years.Becausewedidn'tunderstandwhat
thestakesare.

D.T.:IwouldagreewithyouthattheconflictinUkraineisaresultof20plusyearsoffailures.

Thebestwaytomakesurethatthethereisnolongeraconfrontationbetweentwopowers
istointegratethepowerthatfounditselfadifficultsituationintoawidersystemthatitwould
feelcomfortablewith.

ThiswasdonetoFranceacoupleofyearsaftertheNapoleonicwarsandtoWestGermany
aftertheSecondWorldWar.ThatwasnotdonetoGermanyaftertheFirstWorldWar.

Foranumberofreasonspeopledidn'tthinkthatRussiawasworthspendingtoomuch
money,capital,energytomakeitasolidpartnerwithinanintegratedsystem.

TheintegratedsystemthattheRussianswantedwassupposedtobeasecuritysystem.

OnegoodreasonwasthatpeoplewerenotsurethatRussiawouldplaybytherulesif
integratedintothissystem.

WhateverwecansayaboutalliancesthattheU.S.leads,whateveryouthinkaboutRussia
ithasneversofarrecognizedaleadertoitselfintheoutsideworld.

That'swhereIseeafundamentalproblem.

IthoughtthatwegotherebecausewefailedtointegrateRussia.ButthenI'maskingthis
question:"WasitpossibletointegrateRussiaonthetermsthatwouldhavebeen
acceptablefortheU.S.?"AndtheanswerthatIhaveis:"Unlikely."

Howcanwegetoutofthecurrentcrisis?

D.T.:Idon'tknowwhetherwecaneventalkaboutawayforwardnow.

Ithinkthebestwecanhopeforisthatthemoredangerouspathwillnotbetaken.

Wehavetomakeeveryefforttomakesurethattheprettyshakycease-fireineastern
Ukrainetodaystays,thatit'ssolidifiesovertime,thattheconflictdoesn'tescalate,enlarge
orbecomeareallarge-scalewar.

R.L.:IntermsofDmitri'spessimism,Ithinkintheneartermthelikelihoodofeitherside
backingdownfromitscurrentpositionandtakingsignificantstepstomoveofftheroadwe
areonisveryunlikely.

NottheleastbecauseintheU.S.thepressureinthemediaandCongressisintheother
directioneveniftheadministrationwaswillingtogoinamoreconstructivedirection.

Iamnotoptimisticatthemomenteither.ButIdothinkitistimeinthesecircumstances
whenuniversitiesandresearchorganizationsneedtobegindoingsomething.

Howdowegoinanotherdirection?Youcan'tbegindoingitunlesswethinkthatit'surgent.
Unlesswethinkthatthestakesarehigh.

It'snotjustabouttheRussia-U.S.relationship.Itisgoingtoaffectothers.
[returntoContents]

#8
Irrussianality
http://irrussianality.wordpress.com
December31,2014
THENEEDFORSTRATEGICEMPATHY
ByPaulRobinson
PaulRobinsonisaprofessorintheGraduateSchoolofPublicandInternationalAffairsat
theUniversityofOttawa.PaulRobinsonholdsanMAinRussianandEasternEuropean
StudiesfromtheUniversityofTorontoandaD.Phil.inModernHistoryfromtheUniversityof
Oxford.Priortohisgraduatestudies,heservedasaregularofficerintheBritishArmy
IntelligenceCorpsfrom1989to1994,andasareserveofficerintheCanadianForcesfrom
1994to1996.HealsoworkedasamediaresearchexecutiveinMoscowin1995.

AmongthebookswaitingtobereadonmybookshelfisASenseoftheEnemy:TheHigh-
StakesHistoryofReadingYourRival'sMind,byZacharyShore.Thiscaughtmyattention
becausefifteenyearsagoShorelivedonthesamecorridorasmeatStAntony'sCollege,
Oxford,whilewewerebothwritingourdoctoraltheses.Also,thesubjectmatterfitswellinto
myforthcomingcourseonIrrationalityandForeignPolicyDecisionMaking.Thebookisa
studyindecisionmaking,andjudgingfromwhatIhaveskimmedsofar,itadvancesafairly
simplethesis:successfulforeignpolicydependsuponwhatShorecalls'strategicempathy',
thatistosayanabilitytounderstandwhatmotivatesyourenemy.Thisdoesnotmean
imaginingwhatyouwoulddoifyouwereinyourenemy'splace.Ratheritmeansreally
understandingthem,theirdesires,theconstraintsunderwhichtheyoperate,andsoon.

Iwouldtakethisfurtherandsaythatstrategicempathyisimportantnotjustwhendealing
with'enemies'butinpoliticsmoregenerally,andthatitispreciselythelackofsuch
empathywhichhaspulledRussia-Westrelationsintothemesswhichtheyaretoday.

TheresponseofbothRussiaandWesternstatestothecrisisinUkrainehasbeentothrow
insultsatoneanotherandtoresorttoconspiracytheories.TomanyintheWest,Russian
behaviourinUkraineistheproductofadeliberateplanofimperialexpansiontomany
Russians,thecivilwarinUkraineistheresultofalong-termAmericanstrategyto
destabilizeandweakenanypotentialrivals.WithinUkraine,thecurrentgovernmentviews
thewarassolelytheconsequenceofRussianaggression,whereastherebelsview
themselvesasvictimsofgovernmentbarbarity.Nomatterwhoyouare,somebodyelseis
entirelytoblame.Noeffortismadetounderstand,letaloneempathizewiththeotherside's
pointofview.
Underlyingallthisisasenseonbothsidesofmoralrighteousness.Thedivisionoftheworld
intogoodguys-us-andbadguys-them-discouragesanyefforttopromotestrategic
empathy,forthelattercomestoberegardedasappeasingevil.Butstrategicempathydoes
notrequirethatoneconcedethattheothersideisright.Rather,throughabetter
understandingofothers'actions,oneincreasesone'schancesofpursuingsuccessful
policies.

So,forinstance,thegovernmentwhichcametopowerinUkraineinFebruary2014
arrogantlyignoredtheconcernsofthoseprotestingagainstitonthegroundsthattheywere
simplystoogesofMoscowanddidnotrepresentgenuinepublicopinion.Theresultwascivil
war.Thegovernmentwouldhavedonebettertounderstandthatsomeofitscitizensdid
rejectitandneededreassurance.

Meanwhile,WesternstatesfailedtounderstandhowimportantUkraineistoRussia,and
thusfailedtounderstandhowRussiawaslikelytoreacttotheforcibleoverthrowofthe
Ukrainiangovernment.Fixatedon'Russianaggression',Westernleadersmadenoeffortto
understandtheopinionsofthosefightingagainstKiev.Consequently,Westernleaders
reinforcedtheinflexibilityoftheUkrainiangovernment,andsomadeabadsituationeven
worse.

Russianleadershavealsomademistakes.TheannexationofCrimeaincitedthe
governmentsinKievandtheWesttoseetheeventsinEasternUkraineasarepetitionof
thoseinCrimea,andsotoviewtheprotestsagainstKievasbeingnotanexpressionof
legitimateopinionbutratheraprecursortoRussianinvasion.Russianactionsinstilledfear
andencouragedintransigence.Moscowdoesnotseemtounderstandthis.

IfIhaveabloggingwishfor2015,then,itisforbothRussiaandtheWesttotryharderto
understandhowtheworldlooksfromtheother'spointofview.Moralcertitudemaybe
emotionallysatisfying,butstrategicempathyisfarmorelikelytoleadtopeace.

[returntoContents]

#9
Subject:WhatisgoingoninRussia?TheviewsandvaluesofordinaryRussians
Date:Thu,17Dec2015
From:KarenHewitt<karen.hewitt@conted.ox.ac.uk>

IamattachingthetalkwhichIhavegiven(withadaptations)tovariousgroupsofnon-
professionalswhoareinterestedinRussia.Someprofessionalsintheaudience,
sometimes,butitwasnotintendedforthem.

---

WhatisgoingoninRussia?
TheviewsandvaluesofordinaryRussians(2ndJuly2015)
ByKarenHewitt
Lecturer,OxfordUniversityDepartmentofContinuingEducation

Ihavespentthelast26yearstryingtoexplainBritaintotheRussiansand-toamore
hesitantextent-RussiatotheBritish.SinceIspenduptotwomonthsayearincitiesall
overRussia,livingandtalkingwithRussians,andnotseeingorspeakingtoother
westerners,Imaymisunderstandalot,butIamnotlikeajournalistlookingforastoryand
listeningtootherjournalists.

WhatwehearinBritain-andinWesternmediagenerally-aboutwhatisgoingoninRussia
issodifferentfromwhatIobserveinallthosecitiesandtowns,intheuniversitiesand
schoolsandpublicoffices,intheshopsandmarketsthatIfeelanobligationtochallenge
ourmedia.ThesituationhasbeenhugelyexacerbatedbytheUkrainecrisis-inwhich
outrageousthingshavebeensaidonbothsides-butwithfarlessevidenceandfarmore
falsificationonthe'Westernside'.Thattherearesignificantliesinthemassmediaofboth
countriesisclear.Thatthereisdisturbingignoranceonoursideisclear.SoIdecidedtobe
moresystematicthanusualinexploringwhatordinarythoughtfulRussiansbelievedwas
goingon.Toasklotsofquestionsandtotakelotsofnotes.
AbriefhistoryofRussiaasseenbyRussianssincethe1970s.

Manygenerationsamongmycorrespondentsbutthisbackgroundshouldhelp

AnyonebornintheSovietUnioninthe1960sand1970swouldhavespenttheirchildhoodin
apredictableworld.Theyhadahome,albeitoftenacommunalhome,food,electricityand
(usually)runningwater,paidemployment,seriouseducation,anationalhealthservice,
cheaptravelwithinthecountry,longholidaysinthesummer,andanethoswhich
encouraged'joining'thingsanddoingthingstogether.Lotsofsummercamps,lotsofsport,
lotsofgroup'voluntarywork',lotsofjointprojectsinwhichgrown-upsandchildrenjoined
(suchasbuildingcommunitycentres.)

Thislifewasreassuringinmanyways.Itdidnotencourageindividualdecisions,work
basedonenterpriseandpersonalinitiative.Itdidnotencouragedissent.ByEuropean
standards(thoughnotbythestandardsofmostoftheworld)whatwasavailableinhomes
anddomesticproductswaslimitedandshoddysteppingoutoflinecouldbeandoftenwas
punishedthoughwithnothinglikethewidespreadferocityoftheStalinyears.Formost
grown-upsitwasamatteroflookingoveryourshoulderandteachingyourchildrentobe
discreet.Butformostchildrenthemselves,thevirtuesoftheSovietsystem-stability,lotsof
attentiontochildrenasagroup,andafirmideologyorbeliefcouchedinoptimisticand
cheerfulterms-gavethemahappychildhood.

InmyearlyyearsinRussia(Iwentfirstin1984)andthenannuallyormoreoftenfrom1988)
Iwasatfirstsuspiciousofthesewidelyprevalentaccountsofhappychildhoods.What
aboutthosewhowereoftenunhappyortraumatised-byfamilies,byindividuals,bysocial
expectations?.TheSovietUnionmusthavehadnumbersofunhappychildren,especially
thosetrappedbyillnessorthealcoholismoftheirparents.Butthesystemwaschild-friendly
initsvaluesandpractices.Thedifficultiesandrestraintsbecomemuchmoreobviousas
thosechildrengrewup-ifyouweresomebodywhowantedtoargue,whowantedtogo
yourownway,whowantedtotakeinitiativesorwholoathedcommittees.

Mostadultswereprobablyreasonablycontentwithinworkgroups-andtherewasworkfor
everyone,evenifitwasnotverystrenuousandinvolvedlongholidaysgoingonholidayin
groupswasalsonormal.Morepeoplewereabletomoveoutofcommunalflatswherethey
hadjustoneroomoftheirownintotheirownflats.Intermsofgettingholdofthings-the
systemworkedlikeablackmarket-adeficitmarket-peoplelearnthowtousethesystem.
ProsperityseemedtobegentlyincreasingevenasBrezhnevslept.

ButBrezhnevdiedin1982bywhichtimetheeconomicproblemsoftheSovietsystemwere
becomingalltooobvious,atleasttothoseinpower.HewasfollowedbyAndropovwhodied
in1984andChernenkowhodiedin1985,leavingthewayclearforMikhailGorbachevto
becomeGeneralSecretaryandhenceleaderoftheSovietUnion.Russians-andtheother
Sovietpeoples-wereabouttoenteryearsandyearsofchaosafterdecadesofstabilityand
stagnation.

Gorbachevhadtodealwiththeconsequencesofeconomicstagnationandthecollapsing
priceofoil.Therewerenoresourcesleft.Hetriedtoliberalisemarkets-andpolitics.
Politicalliberalisationwasmoreexciting,especiallyforeducatedpeople,andwentfar
fartherthananyonehadenvisaged,veryquickly.That'swhatmostWesternersremember.

Buthowdoesanyoneturnablackmarketintoacapitalmarket?Ifwhatyoucanbuyis
regulatedbyalackofgoodsratherthanalackofmoney,howdoyoufreeupanddoubleor
trebleyourdomesticproduction-andkeepsomekindofcontrolofmoneysothatpeople
learnwhatyoucanspendandwhatyouhavetosave.How,infact,tochangetotallythe
relationshipbetweenwork,productivityandmoney,ifthepeoplegoverningthecountryand
tryingtodothishavehadnoexperienceofourkindofeconomyandsocialstructures?

Andjustasimportant-howdoyouteachpeopleaboutmoneywhohavelivedalltheirlives
withrationing?Rationingisfair-andalsoget-roundable.Gettingrounditdependsonwhat
youcanbarter.Moneyisnotsosignificant.

TheSovietperestroikareformsmeantthatpeoplestartedlosingtheirjobs.Peoplewere
paidless.Inflationtookhold.Butatthesametimetherewasnothingintheshops,because
ifyouwerecontrollingsuppliesanditseemedlikelythattheypricewouldgoup,youheld
backthegoodsinthewarehouses.Peoplewereworriedabouttheincreasinglackofcontrol
andresponsibilityasotherpeoplestartedshowinginitiative.
ForatleasttwoyearsbeforetheSovietUnionwasbrokenup-deliberatelybySoviet
leaders-inDecember1991-peopleweregettingmoreandmoreconfusedbydifferent
economicandvaluesystemsthatwereco-existing,thoughtheymadenosenseoperating
together.

On2ndJanuary1992,Yeltsin,nowPresidentoftheRussianFederation,divorcednowfrom
allthoseothercountrieswhichhadmadeuptheSovietUnion,declaredthatpriceswere
liberalised.Sellerscouldchargewhattheywanted.Withafewexceptionspriceswouldnot
becontrolledbythestate.(Rathertoolate,herealisedthatinfactstateassetstechnically
belongedtothepeople.)Bythetimehisadvisershaddevisedvouchersforthepopulation
sothattheycouldrealisesomeoftheirassets,thevastwealthofthecountrywasinthe
handsofreallycleverruthlessentrepreneurs-thepeoplewhomwecall'oligarchs'andtheir
slightlylesserranksoftheveryrich,called'NewRussians'.Naturallythesepeoplewere
helpedbytheadviserswhofloodedinfromWesterncountriesandwhowereeagertoturn
Russiaintoa'Western-style'countrywhichwouldbehelped/controlledbyexperienced
'democracies'.(LotsofmoneywasputintoRussiatohelpwithdevelopingcivilsociety,but
itwasatinyfractionofthemoneyputintoRussiainordertoexploitaneconomicsituation
whichwasdevastatingthepopulation.)AndsobeganwhattheRussianrefertoas'the
nineties'.

Thecountrysufferedhyperinflationandthereforethepeoplelostalltheirsavingstheylost
theirjobsindustrycollapsedasdidtheagriculturalfarms.Onedisasterfuelledanother:for
exampletheSovietwelfaresystemvanishedsinceitmadenosenseinanew
entrepreneurialworld.Thecreakybutuniversalnationalhealthservicewas-Russianswere
told-notthewaytosolvehealthproblems.EveryoneexcepttheBritishexplainedyou
shouldprivatisethehealthsystem-whichmeantthatmostpeoplecouldnotafforddoctors
exceptthosebravedoctorswhowentonworkingwithoutpay.Nobodycouldpaytheschool
teacherseither,butteacherswereoldladieswhowentonworkinganyway,andwhowere
officiallydespisedforit.

Mostofthepopulationlivedonorganicvegetablesgrownontheirowndachaplots.Butthey
couldbuyMarsbarsandSnickersbarsandincreasinglycheapcomputerswhichthe
childrendemanded.Meanwhiletheshopsbegantofillwithposhforeigngoodsboughtwith
dollarsbythose(mostlyinMoscow)whohadmanagedtolandjobswithforeignfirms.So
thissocietywhichhadinSoviettimesbeenbasedonprettyequaldistributionofwealth
becamethemostunequalofsocieties-thefabulouslyrichtheveryrich,andthevast
majorityofthestrugglingpoorwhowonderedeverymonthwhethertheywouldgetpaid.And
thenthehomeless.

Thedeathrateshotup-themajorityofmenweredyingbeforetheyreached60-ofillness,
alcohol,joblessness,andessentiallyofbrokenhearts.Thebirthratewentrightdown:why
havebabiesinthischaos?Andtherewasnocheerfulideologytokeeppeopletogether.In
facttherewasnocoherentsystemofvaluesatallwhich,evenwhenmostpeopleare
essentiallydecent,isdeeplytraumatising.

By1997,withYeltsin,analcoholicinthralltothesquabblingcourtiersaroundhim,the
economylookedbrieflyasifitwasslowlynormalising.Inflationhadcomedownto,say,25%
-andpeoplewerefindingwaystowork.Butthentherewereworldeconomicconvulsions,
andRussia(bynowhugelyindebttothemoneyinstitutionsoftheworld)defaultedonits
debtsin1998.Onceagaintherewasseriousinflationandthistime-becauseforeign
investorswereaffected-theworldtooknotice.ButtheRussianpopulationmostlylaughed.
Theyhadlostalltheirsavings,theirassets,theirrighttopublicassetsandtheirsecuritysix
yearsearlier.Theyhadlittleornothinglefttolose.AndsoRussiastaggeredinto1999,with
thepeople,onthewhole,disillusioned,confused,ashamedandexhausted.Attheveryend
of1999,Yeltsinannouncedthathewasresigning,andthat,untilproperelectionsshould
takeplace,hewasappointingsomeoneelsetotakeover-someonevirtuallyunknownto
thepeople-VladimirPutin.

PutinhasbeeninpowerasPresidentfor11years,andintandemwithPresidentMedvedev
for4yearsfrom2008-2012.FromtheWesternpointofview-forreasonswhichare,Ithink,
deepinUSgeopolitics,Putinwasratherquicklydemonised.

FromthepointofviewofordinaryRussianshebroughtstability,coherentpoliciesanda
doubling,trebling,oftheirpersonalincomesandthewealthofRussia.Hemadethe
oligarchspaytaxes,hebrokeupsomeoftheillegalempiresofenergywealthand
nationalisedthem,HedealtwithlocalwarlordsindistantpartsoftheRussianfederationand
insistedthatgovernorsshouldbeappointedfromMoscow,sothathecouldkeepaneyeon
them.Withtheoilmoneyhisgovernmentbuiltupahugeemergencyreservesothatit
wouldneveragainbethebasket-caseofworldeconomies,andheandhisministers
devisedandlargelycarriedoutfederal-wideimprovementprojectsinEducation,Health,
AgricultureandInfrastructure.Peoplearehugelybetteroffthantheywere,andalthoughof
coursethereareplentyofpoorpeople,theytooarebetteroffthantheywere.(The
homelesshavegonefromthestreetsofPerm,where-aswitheverywhereelseinRussia)
theywereobviousandpitifulandshamefultotheirfellow-citizensinthe1990s.)Notallof
thisisattributabletothepoliciesoftheGovernment,stilllesstoPresidentPutin-oilprices
areimportant-butfromtheordinaryRussian'spointofview,theyhavemuchtobethankful
forunderPutin.

ThereismorecensorshipthantherewasinYeltsin'syearswhentherewasnocensorship
atall-aboutanything.Thereareoppositionwebsitesandsomenewspapersbutother
oppositionnewspapershavetheireditorsreplacedbytheauthorities.Therearestate
televisionchannelswhichfollowthegovernmentlinewithdailyfocusonthePresidentand
thekindof'analysis'bywhichthedecisionsofthegovernmentarealwaysshowntobe
correctontheotherhand,thesenewsprogrammesshow-onthewhole-moreofwhatis
goingonintheworldthanournationalBBCprogrammes,forexample.

[Asforotherdomesticproblems:IhaveyettohearateacherinhighereducationinRussia
whodoesnotcomplainabouttheMinisterofHigherEducation,theloweringofstandards,
thelackofattentiontothehumanities,thechasingaftermoneyratherthanscholarship,etc
etc.(WhenItelltheseindignantpeoplethatyoucanhearexactlythesamecomplaintsin
Britain,theyareastounded.SurelyBritainisacivilisedcountry?!.)

Corruptionisalsoacomplaint:whyhaven'tPutinandMedvedevdonemoretocombatit?In
facttheyaredoingsomething.Russiaisslowly-buttooslowly-climbingupthelistwhere
theleastcorruptnationsareatthetop.136outof175countries.Butthereareinteresting
observationsbyordinaryRussiansaboutthiscorruption.]

Sowherearewenow:orratherwherewereweinlateFebruary2014whenthecrisisin
Ukraineerupted.?

WhatcanIsayaboutthiswhichwon'tbeshouteddownbyonesideortheother?

Ukraineisanunhappycountry,puttogetheroutofseverallargeareaswithdifferent
histories,cultures,faithsandloyalties.In23yearsitsleaders,mostlyquarrellingoligarchs
fromallsides,havefailedtothinkaboutUkraineasapluralistcountrythatcandevelopits
ownpluralistsenseofpride.Theeconomyhasdroppedmorethanthatofanyotherpost-
Sovietcountryandmanypeopleliveinrealdesperatepoverty.

UkraineisrelatedtoRussia.Ifyouaskhow-myanalogyistosay:takeWales,Scotland,
NorthernIrelandandtheRepublicofIreland,rollthemintooneandsaythisisanationwhich
hasalong,longrelationshipwithEngland.Imaginewhatyouwouldsayaboutthat.Itwould
notbeeasy.Ukraine'srelationshipwithRussiaisintimate,historical,fullofloveand
solidarity,butdamagedbybitternessandasenseofoppression.Lotsandlotsoffamilyand
friendsonbothsides.AndthreemillionUkrainiansworkinginRussia.

NowforthequestionswhichIhaveaskedRussians-hundredsofRussiansfromtheArctic
totheCaucasus,fromSmolenskacrossEuropeanRussia,acrosstheUrals,toSiberiaand
ontothefareast,toVladivostok.IhavebeentoalltheseplacesandIhavetalked.Ihave
extensivenotes.ButIknowthatIcanbebiasedasweallcan,inwhatIwanttohear.SoI
circulatedabout300universityteachersofEnglishwith8questions,andaskedthem-
entirelyoptionally-fortheiranswersandthoseoftheirfriendsandrelations.LaterIturned
thequestionsintoRussianandaskedespeciallyfortheopinionsofmen.AsaresultIhave
about70detailedanswersfromteachers,lawyers,engineers,ITspecialists,business
people,journalists,students,pensioners.Educatedpeople-sonotsociologicallyaccurate
BUTtypical,itseemstome,intherangeofanswersandthekindofanswersthattheygive.

Somepeoplewouldsaythatintheiranswers,theseordinarythoughtfulRussianswere
undulyinfluencedbymass-mediapropaganda.TothatIwouldsaytwothings:astartlingly
highproportionofRussiansusetheinternetandwatchforeignTVchannels.Theyhave
accesstomanysourcesofinformationandmisinformation-morethantheirBritish
equivalents.Andevenmoreimportant,millionsandmillionsofRussiansincludingprobably
morethan50%ofthissamplehavefriendsandrelationsinUkrainewhomtheyphoneor
writetoorskypewith,oftendaily.Theyarelivinginacomplicatedconnectedworld.Of
coursetheirviewsarenotjustparroted.

(1)AreyoumoreorlesssatisfiedwiththeannexationofCrimea?Thevastmajority,about9
outof10approvedofCrimeasecedingfromUkraine.Theyobjectedtomyword,
'annexation'.TheCrimeausedtobelongtoRussia,itsinhabitantshadlongwantedtoreturn
toRussia,theyheldareferendumandtheyvotedtoleaveUkraineandthen-toaskRussia
toaccepttheautonomousrepublicaspartoftheRussianFederation.

AlthoughRussianspecialforcespoppedupallovertheplace,noviolencetookplaceand
no-onewaskilled.(Iwassurprisedthatmyrespondentsdidnotmakemuchmoreofthe
peacefulchangeofpower)

TheRussianssaid'Itwasrighttoletthemdecide:theyhavedecided.'

Anumbercomplainedthattheirownhard-earnedsalarieswerebeingtaxedtopayfor
economicaidtoCrimea.ThiswasnotidealforRussiaandsomeofmyrespondentsshould
beputdownas'againsttheinclusionofCrimea'.Buttheydidnotdoubtthatitwasavery
goodmoveforthepeopleofCrimea.

OneortwopointedoutthatprobablythemainaimoftheRussiangovernmentwhichwas
certainlyactiveintheprocess,wastoensuretheintegrityofSevatopol.

Asforthesmallminorityofthosewhodisapproved,theydidnotexplainWhy-exceptone
whosaidthatitwasagainstinternationallaw.Perhapstheothersfeltthesameobjection,
buttheyansweredwithavigorous'No',andleftcommentsandexplanationstothosewho
supportedwhathappened.

IspokeatlengthtoathoughtfullysardonicCrimeanteacherwhosaid'Mostofusvotedto
leaveUkraineandthentojoinRussiabecausewewereterrifiedofbecomingvictimsof
violencelikethewretchedeasternUkrainians.Eveninthoseearlydayswecouldseewhat
washappeningastheKievgovernmentturnedagainstthepeopleinDonbass.Andwesaid,
Noway!Wemustescapethat.SothankyouEastUkrainiansforshowinguswhatwould
havebeenourfate!

ShesaidtheCrimeanTartarswereworriedatfirst,butafterayearmostofthemhave
stoppedbeingworried.

(2)WouldtheAnnexationofeasternUkrainebeagoodidea.Alargemajoritysaid,'Certainly
not!Whatfor?RussiahasneversoughttograbeasternUkrainewhichbelongstoanother
country-utterlyunlikeCrimea.'Thisbigmajorityinsistedthatthiswasaninternalproblem
whichUkrainemustsortoutforitself.Butofcoursethisopinion,pureasitmightbeis
difficult-remembermyanalogywithScotland/Wales/NorthernIreland/Ireland.Many
Russiansfrequentlyexpressedpityforthevictims.Andmanyknewrelationsandfriendsin
theDonetskandLuganskseparatistregionswhowerehopingforsomekindofsupport.

Ayearago,answerssuchas'Itisnothingtodowithus.''Itisunimaginablethatwewould
invadeUkraine'wereevenmorecommon.InAprillastyear(2014)Imetno-onewho
thoughtthatRussiawouldorshouldinvadeeasternUkraine.Butmymostrecent
responseshaveincludedsomelongandthoughtfulruminationsontheproblem.Onlyone
saidfirmly,'InvadeUkraineandbringthecivilwartheretoaquickhalt!'andonesaid'so
manypeoplearesuffering,somanycivilians.Perhapsweoughttodosomethingtoavoid
genocide.'Buttherewasmoreof'Iftheseparatiststhinktheycannolongerlivewithin
Ukraine,afterayearoffighting,whatshouldRussiadothen?Ifthereisnohopeforpeace?'

Hereisonesuchresponse.

'Ihonestlydonotknow.TheUkrainiangovernmentissetonnotgrantinganydegreeof
autonomytotheregion,andtheRussianlanguagehasbeendeniedthestatusofthe
secondofficiallanguageconsistently,despitethefactthatalargeproportion(morethanhalf
accordingtosomesources,bothRussianandforeign)ofthepopulationtherespeaks
Russianastheirfirstlanguage.However,tomethatdoesnotmeanthatRussiashouldtake
overbymilitaryforce,asthiswouldbeaninvasionofanothercountry'sterritory,whichis
completelyinacceptable.Atthesametime,Iamappalledatthedouble-standardtheEU
hasshowninthismatter:whileupholdingtherightsofethnicminoritiesinEuropean
countries,theEUopenlysupportsagovernmentthatdiscriminatesagainsttheirown
people.IbelievethattheRussiangovernmentisrighttoapplypoliticalandeconomic
leverageinordertosupportthelargeRussiancommunityinEasternUkraine.'

TwopeopletookwhatIwouldcallaUkrainianline.TheyexplainedthattheeastUkrainian
separatistsare'terrorists'.

AndvariouspeopleinRostovwhoaregoingbackwardsandforwardsacrossthefrontier
pointedoutthatafterayearoffighting,themilitiasfightingforDonetskandtheseparatists
werealmostasbadastheUkrainianNazimilitias.

SeveralrespondentshadexperienceoftherefugeeswhocametoRussia.Onesaidthat19
membersofherhusbandsfamilyhadnowmovedacrossthebordertoRussiawherethey
hadrelatives.Maybetheywerenotexactlyrefugees-buttheyhadlefttheirhomesandjobs
andordinarylifetoescapetoRussia.[Ihavepersonallyinterviewedatlengthashy20-year-
oldrefugeefromUkraine,livingnowinPerm.Hisownstoryshowedthatmilitias(probably
onbothsides)loseallsenseafteratime.]

(3)DoyoubelieveyourgovernmentwhenitsaystheRussianarmyisnotfightingin
Ukraine?

Thiswasatrickyquestion.Fewpeoplesimplysaid,'Ibelievethem'or'theyareliars'.They
allknowthat'theWest'accusesRussiaofusingitsmilitarytodestabiliseUkraine.Theyall
knowthatPutinandhisministerssaythisisnottrue.Sowhoisright?
Somepeoplesaid'Iknowlotsofpeopleinthearmyandtheydonotknowanyonewhois
fightinginUkraine.Rumoursareboundtobeflyingabout,soiftheysaytheyknownothing,
thentherearen'tanysoldiersthere.'

Anotherargumentwasasfollows:

'Theclaimistrue.I'mnotapersontotakeontrustwhatevertheauthoritiesandmass
mediasay.I'vewitnessedbittermomentsofblindingmynation(Afghanistan,Chechnya),
butthoselieswereevident:mothersburiedtheirsonsinSiberia,NizhnyNovgorod,
Volgograd,Rostov,Ekaterinburg...andwiththat,youunderstand,thearmypresenceinan
ariawasimpossibletoconceal.I'm45nowandbelongtothegenerationofmotherswhose
sonsaredraftage.Since2014I'veheardofnotasinglecaseofamotherlosinghersonin
militaryoperationsinDonbass.'
[Infactmothershaveprotested,buttherehavebeensmallnumbers,andgovernment
effortstosuppresscomment.Sothatisn'tquitetrue.]

Otherssaid,'OfcoursetheRussianarmyisn'tthere.IftheyweretheycoulddefeatUkraine
inaweek.ORWhydoesn'ttheKievgovernmentpresentproof-photos,satelliteevidence,
capturedprisoners.Notjusttwoprisonersandfivepassports,-asifsoldierswouldhave
theirpassportsanyway.TheAmericanskeeptalkingaboutthishugeRussianarmy,butthey
havenotseenit,andtheycannotidentifyit.

Alotofpeoplesaid,'Idon'tknow'.

Manysaid-'weknowthatthereareRussianvolunteers.Iknowofpeoplewhohave
volunteeredtohelptheeastUkrainians.'

Andwhoarethesevolunteers?Welltheymaybeenthusiasticidealisticstudentsfriends
havetalkedtomeofseveralsuchstudentsandhavedescribedtheiraccounts.Other
comments:Iftherearerealarmypeoplethere,Ibettheyhavebeensentbyexasperated
officerswhowantustoDOsomething.Notchiefcommand,butlowerdownwheretheyfeel
Russiaisnotrespondingtoadisasterasitshoulddo.

Someonesaid:IknowthoseboyswhodrivethelorriesfullofhumanitarianaidtoDonetsk.
Theyarenotagainsttheaidbuttheyaresofrustrated.'WhylettheUkrainianmilitias
destroyallthesecivilianswithoutresponding.'Andsomebodyelsesaid'Veteranscan'tlive
withoutwar.IftheywereprofessionalsoldiersoncetheywillgettoUkrainesomehow.'

ButistheRussiangovernmentlying?

Oneinspiredpersonsaid-'Ithinkwhattheysayis80%true.
Andhereisaprovincialjournalistwhoseemstoknowwhatheistalkingabout:

'ItwasahabitintheUSSRtoconcealthepresenceofitsmilitaryinwarzones.[Hegives
examples]PeoplelivinginRussiawellunderstandtheirrecenthistory.Theyknowthatifour
weaponsarefiredinUkraine,thereareRussiansoldiersfiringthem.Notthearmy,not
thousandsofcompanies,notwholedivisions.Nottheairforce,notballisticmissiles.But
specialforces,signallers,reconnaissancetroops,tankdrivers.Theyarethere.Notinthe
statistics.ButthecoffinsarrivebackinRussia.

Isuspectthatrespondentsaying'it's80%true'wouldagreewithhim.Smallnumbersof
specialforces.TheRussiangovernmentis20%lying.Others,intheiranswerssuggest
somethingsimilar.

'Ithinkit'snotcompletelytrue.Itwouldbealietosay,thattherearelargegroupsofRussian
soldiersfightingforDonbass,butitwouldalsobealietodenyRussianarmy'sparticipation.
Idonotknowtowhichextendourarmyisinvolvedandit'shardtofindoutamongstallthis
propagandafrombothsides.ButstillIbelieve,thatmostofrebelsfightingforDonbassare
Donbasspeople.'

Andthencomesthetroubledjustification.

'Itishardformetojudgeas,obviously,wearebrainwashed(aswellasalltheothers).I
thinktheremightbesomeonefromRussiafightinginDonbassbutIalsothinkpeoplefrom
Donbassneedsomeonetohelpthem.WhatweseeistheUkrainiangovernment
oppressingtheRussianpopulationintheirhistoricallymulticulturalcountry.Formeit'slike
oppressingpeoplewhospeakFrenchinCanada.EuropeisnotwillingtohelpDonbassand
whenIsee(onTV)thecivilianpopulationofDonbass(theold,womenandchildren)being
killedbytheUkrainiangovernmentIcan'tbutjustifythepresenceofRussiansinDonbass
helpingtheir"brothers".'

(4)WhatmoreofpracticalactioncanRussiataketohelpsolvethecrisisinUkraine?

Tothisquestiontherewaswidespreadgloom-'Thereisnothingmorethatwecando.''This
isaquestionsfortheUkrainians,itisnothingtodowithusandtheydonotwanttosolveit.'

TheminoritywhothoughtthatRussiawasactivelymeddlinginDonbasssaid'Withdrawall
ourmilitary,andtheUkrainianswilldefeattheseparatists,sothewarwillstop.'Or'Russia
wantsadestablisedUkraineunderitscontrol.Soitdoesnotwantthewartostop.'Ihad
perhaps3answerslikethat.Iwrotetooneoftherespondentsaskingifhecouldexplain
howadestablisedUkrainecouldbeintheinterestsofRussia:expensive,messy,very
unpopularwiththemajorityofRussians,invitingthewrathofwesterncountries,andruining
evenfurthertheUkrainianeconomysothatitcannotpayitdebtstoRussia.Myrespondent
repliedthattherewereseveraltheories-helisted7-allofthemingenious,far-fetched,and
milesfromreal-politikwhichiswhatPutinisusuallyaccusedof.

Manypeoplementionedcontinuinghumanitarianaid-whichisgettingmoreurgent,not
lessdecenttreatmentofrefugees,long-termvisitorsandimmigrantsfromUkraine.

ThegloomincludedassumptionsaboutAmericanintentions.'Thewarwillnotstopbecause
theUSdoesnotwantittostop.ProbablytheEUwouldlikeittostop,buttheEUis-and
hasbeenforalongtime-America'spoodle."

Thisthoughtfulanswer-fromanothersceptic-sumsupmanyresponses:

'IthinkthatRussiahasdonemorethanenough.In1995Russiamanagednottofullystop,
butatleastkickstartthepeaceprocessinChechnyaattheverybrinkofobviousmilitary
victoryovertheIslamists.Stillourgovernmentwaswiseenoughtoseefurtherthan
immediatepoliticalgain.SoPoroshenko'steamaswellasothernegotiatorshavealotto
learnfromRussiawho,unlikemanycountriesinEuropeknowshowtodealwithsuch
problems.IthinkthatPoroshenkohadbetterchancesinthebeginningwhenDonbass
claimedmoreautonomyforlocalauthoritiesandespeciallytaxfreedoms.Thesituationis
worsenow.Itwouldbebestforbothpartiestostopfightingandstartnegotiating.Jaw-jawis
alwaysbetterthanwar-war.Butnobodycares.'

Onepersonwasblunt:'Idon'tknowwhatRussiacando.ButI'msurethattostopartillery
firingintheeastUkrainetherewillbeenoughonetelephonecalltoUkrainefromtheUS.'
(5)Whataboutthesanctions.Shouldtheybelifted?

ThreemonthsagoIwasinacarwithalawyeragedabout60.Theconversationhadturned
tosanctions.Thelawyerwasrapidlybecomingapoplectic,notsomuchwithrageaswith
theextremefrustrationoftheintelligenthavingtodealwiththestupid.Hekepttakinghis
handsoffthewheel,andIfearedthatwemightbeseriousvictimsofthisinternational
devicetomakeRussia'behave'.

'Sanctions!'saidmyfriend.'Whatonearthhavesanctionstodowithus!Wedidn'tstartthe
war!Wearenotprosecutingthewar!ThewarisbeingfoughtonUkrainianterritoryby
UkrainiansagainstotherUkrainians.BywhatlogicshouldtheUSimposesanctionson
RussiawhichhasnothingtodowiththetroublethatAmericaitselfstirredup.Howareweto
blame?'

Ifinlessvigorousterms,thatviewisalmostuniversal.Eventhestronganti-Russian-
Governmentrespondentsthinkthatthesanctionsareillogical,ineffective,andcausing
unnecessarytroubletobusinesstryingtodevelopinternationally.Thepaintoordinary
peoplehasbeentheRussiangovernment'sreversesanctionsinwhichfoodfromtheEUis
barredfromenteringRussia.Interestinglyno-oneobjectedtothisinthesenseofsayingthat
theRussianresponseshouldbeabolished.Sanctionsandcounter-sanctionswerepartof
thepackage.

AlmostnobodyexpectedthemtobeliftedpeopleregularlypointedoutthattheUSisnot
hurtbythem,andwishestogoonhurtingRussia,whiletheEUishurtbythem,andmany
Europeancountries,letalonetheirbusinessesandproducerswouldliketoseethemlifted,
buttheEUisAmerica'spoodle.(ThisviewiscertainlydrawnlargelyfromRussianmedia
andpropaganda.Italsohappenstobetrue.)

Giventhattheyareheretostay,howhavesanctionsaffectedordinaryRussians.Therewas
adistinctdividebetweentheresponsesofpeoplefromMoscowandStPetersburgand
thoseoftherestofthecountry.Thepeopleinthecapitalsmisstheforeigncheeses,and
chocolateandthedoublingofthecostofforeigntravel.Mostoftherestofthecountryis
lesstroubled:Icouldn'taffordthoseforeigngoodsanyway.IalwaysbuyRussianfoodand
thereisplentyofitanditisgood.

Also,manypeoplearguedthatthesanctionshavethrowntheRussianeconomybackonits
ownresourcesandproductions.Sotherearemorelocalbusinesses,moreinitiative,less
dependenceonimportsgenerally.Sothesanctionsareactuallyimprovingtheeconomy.

Nowthatlastpointiscertainlypartofwhatthegovernmenttellsthepeople.Idon'tknow
howfaritistrue.Probablythegovernmentdoesn'tknoweither,becauseRussiaisahuge
country.Butoneortwopeoplementionedspecificnewactivitiesintheirareas.

Everyonesaidthatpriceshadgoneup-partlybecauseofsanctions,partlybecauseoflow
oilprices.Butthiswaspartoflife.Nofinancialdifficultieswerelikethedisastersof15years
ago.Anuisance,atighteningofbelts,apulling-together.

It'sstrangebutthefactisthatsanctionsimposedonRussiahaveunitedourcountry.

Orfromsomeonemoresceptical,andinotheranswerscriticalofthegovernment:

'IfyouhatePutin,punishhim,butifyouhatealltheRussians,wewillalsohateyou.The
mostseveresanctionswereimposedaftertheMH-17tragedy.[TheMalaysianairliner
crash]TheWestwasnotright.Wedon'tknowwhowasreallytoblame!Theother
sanctionshavenotmuchangeredmeandmyfriends.Ihopethesanctionswillbelifted.'

NOWFORFOURMOREGENERALQUESTIONS.

Question6.IsadrawingtogetheroftheRussianOrthodoxChurchandStateagoodidea?

Igotawiderangeofanswerstothis,butratherlittleanalysis.IfIdividethemintothree,the
smallestgroup-butstillareasonablenumber-said'Surelythisisagoodthing'.'Whatis
theproblem?"'Russianshavealwaysbeenspiritual'.

Thenextgroup-athird,say-saidthattheydidnotunderstandmyquestionbecausethey
didnotrecognizethesituation.TheRussianConstitutioninsistsonaseparationofChurch
andStatedifferentreligionsarerecognizedwithintheconstitutionthepoliticalelite
sometimesmakeofficialvisitstoMosquesandBuddhisttemplesandSynagoguesaswell
astheOrthodoxChurchwithwhichabigmajorityoftheethnicRussianpopulationidentify.
Thepaperspublishphotosofpoliticalleaderswithlotsofleadersofdifferentfaiths:thatis
partofacknowledgingthevariedculturesthatmakeuptheRussianFederation.Russiais-
andisrecognized-asamulti-faithandno-faithculture.

ManypointedoutthattheythoughtofthemselvesasRussianOrthodox,butthiswasfor
themaculturalidentificationratherthanaspiritualone.Theydidn'texpecttogotoChurch,
butitwasusefulforthesoultotakethefastseriously.[FastinginLenthasrecentlybecome
almostanobsessionIaminRussiaduringAprileachyear,andsoIarriveattheheightof
theFastingSeason.Fastingmeanscuttingoutmeat,butteranddairyproduce,sometimes
fishbutrarelyalcohol.Sointhebakerytheywillwarnyouthatsuchandsuchaloafisnot
goodforLentFastingbecauseitcontainsmilkinrestaurantsandincanteensthereare
specialLentmenus.Withamixtureofmoaningandenthusiasmmuchofthepopulation
joinsin,atleastduringtheweekbeforeOrthodoxEaster.Thentheyhavehugefeastswith
eggsandspecialdecoratedcakesandagloriouscreamcheesedishflavouredwithmany
goodthings.AtsuchmomentsmanyRussianswilllookatyousolemnlyandsaytheyare
Orthodoxatheart-butinthenextbreaththeycanbegintomockfatcorruptpriests.]

Anyway,thisgroupcan'tunderstandmyquestionbecausetheydon'treallythinkitis
happening.

Andthenaslightlylargergroupadmitthattheyareworried.Mostofthemarenotworried
verymuch.WhenIhaveaskedfriendswhoarereligiousthemselves,theyhaveshaken
theirheadsslowlyandsaid,'Idon'tlikeit.Ithinkreligionisaprivatethinganditisnopartof
myreligiontobereflectedinwhatourgovernmentdoes.'

Others-non-believers-weremorescathing.TheOrthodoxChurchisaninstitutionwhich
isalwaystryingtogetmorepower.That'satendencyinallcountriesbutitshouldbe
resisted.

SeveralsaidthattheOrthodoxChurchisnowdefactoanarmofgovernment-'AndwhatI
hatemostaboutitisthattheseelitesusedtobeatheistsandnowtheyadorethechurch.'
and
'It'saveryworryinginfluence,mostlyduetotheRussianOrthodoxChurch'slong
connectionstotheFSB(formerKGB).'

TheactualviewsthattheChurchseekstoimposeonthepeople-oratleastitdeclaresits
positionwithseemingKremlincomplicity-includestrongdisapprovalofgaypeople,strong
disapprovalof'westernmoralstandards',andabeliefthatRussiamusttakeitsown
spiritualpath.Whichtendstoproudisolationism.

Sosomeoftheobjectionsbythisgroupareto'Mediaevalopinions-butwhatcanyou
expectoftheChurch?'resentmentthatanyinstitutionistellingyouwhattodowiththatkind
ofauthorityattacksontheassumptionthatthereisaconnectionbetweentheChurchand
the144millionRussians-whoarediversewithdiverseopinions.Still,thismoderate
answerwasmosttypical.

'Idon'tthinkit'sagoodidea.Butrightnow(asIseeit)Russianpeopledonotseeanythreat
inthat.AlotofpeoplefromRussiadonotbelieveinsaintlinessofclergy.Wehaveseena
lotofphotographsinourpressandblogosphereshowingpriestsinluxuriouscarsand
wearinghugelyexpensivecloaks.Wemaygotochurch,wemayskipchurch.It'snotabig
deal.That'swhymostofusdonotcareabouttheproblem.'

ThatwascertainlytheviewofstudentsinclasseswhereIaskedthequestion.'Nobigdeal.'

FinallyIhadseveralrespondentswhoretorted,reasonablyenough-Whataboutyour
QueeninWestminsterAbbey?WhataboutyourArchbishopinCanterbury?Our
constitutionissecularyoursisnot.

Questions7and8OnActivestudentsandontheImmortalLegion.

ThesewerealternativeQuestionsIwaswantingtofindoutiftherewasanincreaseofcivic
activityinRussiarecently,and3peoplefrom3differentcitiesspontaneouslymentionedthe
increasedenthusiasmoftheirstudents.Butthequestionwasobviouslyirrelevantfornon-
universityrespondentssoIreplaceditbyoneabouttheImmortalLegionwalksonVictory
Day.Neitherturnedouttobeanidealquestionbuttheyraisedsomeinterestingpoints.

Plentyofuniversityteacherssaidthatstudentsarestudents,theyvary,someyearsare
moreactivethanotherstheyareignorantandimmatureexceptforafew....'Averydulllot
thisyear...'Etc.

Butasignificantnumbersaidthatmoreandmoreoftheirstudents(atleastinthe
humanities)weretakingupvoluntaryworksuchashelpinginorphanages,visitingelderly
people,donatingblood.Thestudentsorganizesuchactivitiesthemselves,butclearlythere
isanationalmoodgoingroundthecountry.Itiscertainlyhelpedbygovernment-approved
media.Butthatdoesn'tmeanthatitislessreal.Twoyearsagotherewerereally
devastatingfloodsintheRussianFarEastThousandsofhomesdestroyed,tensof
thousandshomeless.ThroughTVchannelstherewereappealsformoneyandhelp,and
thousandsofstudentsvolunteered.Normaldecentresponses.Butmanyteachersthought
thattheresponsewasmorevigorousthanitwouldhavebeeninearlieryears.Also,
followingtheexampleofBritain,muchwasmadeofstudentvolunteersattheSochi
OlympicGames.Ispoketolotsofstudentswhowentthereasvolunteersandtheywereas
excitedastheirBritishcounterparts.Asaresultithasbecomefashionabletobehelpfuland
tovolunteerforRussianactivities.(AndIdonotuse'fashionable'cynicallybutasawayof
tracingatrend.)

Moreoverseveralrespondentsnotedthatstudentsaremorepoliticallyactive.Ofcourse
theyareasmallminority,butbiggerandnoisierthantheywere.Hereisanenthusiastic
commentfromoneteacherinherthirties.

'Mystudentsareveryinquiring,I'vebeenteachingfor11yearsalreadyanddothinkthatthe
youngpeoplearemoreopen,sensitiveandwhatisreallyamazing-patriotic!About10
yearsago90%ofstudentsofForeignLanguagesDepartmentwantedtoleavethecountry
andnowtheyallwanttostay,theybroadentheirhorizon,getinvolvedintomanyvoluntary
projects,theyhelpsomanypeople!'

NowIwanttolookattheotherquestion.WhatdoyouthinkoftheImmortalLegion.InSoviet
timesthereweretwoimportantnationalholidays-1stMayand9thMay.1stMay-workers'
day-wassolinkedwiththeSovietUnionthatitcouldnotbecelebratedexceptasa
communistfestival.Soitisstillapublicholiday,butmostofthepopulationwhocandoso
rushofftotheirdachastobeginplantingforthesummerseason.It'saspringbreakof
severaldays.

9thMaywascelebratedinSoviettimesasthegreatVictoryOverFascismDay.Military
hardwarewasbroughtoutontoRedSquare,andincitiesandtownsupanddownthe
countrythearmyparadedandpeoplebothrejoicedintherepellingofinvadersfromtheir
homelandandmournedthemillionswhohaddied.Ithasalwaysbeenapublicholidaybutin
the1990snotsomuchwasmadeofthedisplay.TheRussianFederationwasnotatwar,
theGreatPatrioticWaroftheSovietUnionwasaboutadifferentworldinadifferentcountry,
andRussianshadotherthingstoworryabout.

InPutin'stime,notimmediatelybutslowly,VictoryDayhasbeenbroughtbackasapatriotic
holiday,withtheideaofunitingallthepeople.With27milliondead,everySovietfamily
suffereddeaths,letalonethewoundedandtraumatizedwhodidreturn.And'Sovietpeople'
includedofcoursethepeopleslivinginwhatisnowtheRussianFederation.Sothis
seemedtobeadaytobringthemalltogether.

Isitadayforshowingoffthemilitary?Notnearlysomuchasitusedtobe-untilthisyear
whenPutinmadeitclearthatthedisplayofmilitaryequipmentdidhaveapoliticalagenda.

Thisyeartherewasahugeofficialbuild-uptothe70thAnniversary.Everywherewere
posters,declamations,exhibitions,people-participationineventsbeforethegreatday.But
alsoinresponsetoaggressiveandhostileactionsbythewest,therewasalsoalotof
militarystuffondisplay.

Severaltimes,ascarefullyasIcould,Iraisedthequestionofwhetherthiswasan
appropriatepublicholiday70yearsaftertheevent.'Younolongercelebratethrowing
NapoleonoutofRussia.WhenareyougoingtostopcelebratingthrowingtheNazisoutof
Russia?'
AndalmostalwaystheanswerwasasifIhadseriouslyhurtthepersonIasked.

'Karen,surelyyouunderstand-somanypeopledied.Andtheydiedforus,andwemustnot
forgetthat.Childrenforgetsomuchthesedayssoitisveryimportanttotellthemabout
theirgreat-grandfathers.'

'ButwhyVictory?Isn'tthisabittoolateforCelebratingVictory?'

'Itdoesn'tmeanthatwearethinkingofotherpeoplesasenemies.Itmeansthatweare
proudofourselves.'

NowtotheImmortalLegionortheImmortalRegiment.Aboutfouryearsagoinsome
Siberiancity,agroupofpeopledecidedtowalkbehindtheusualmarchingsoldiersand
youthfulcadets,holdinghome-madeposterswithaphotographofsomeoneintheirfamily
whohadbeenkilledinthewar.Itwasalocalinitiativewhichcaughtonveryquicklyand
spreadacrossthecountry.By8thMay2015(whenIwasinPermaspartofanofficial
Oxfordcitydelegation)thousandsofPermiansspenttheeveningmakingpostersreadyfor
awalkinaprocessionthenextday.AndsoinPermonMay9th,outinthebigparadearea
wehadballetandsoldiers,children,andaPerm-madetankthatwentallthewaytoBerlin,
mountedonalorry-thatgotbigapplause-andlargishcrowds.Butafterthesedisplays
therecame,walkingdownKomsomolskyProspect30,000Permcitizens,carryingposters.
[Population-onemillion.]
Itwasentirelypeople-leditwasentirelycivic,anditwasverymoving.

Whatdidmyrespondentssay.Almostallofthemsaidthatthiswasawonderfulideathat
camefromthepeople,representedthepeople,andgaveprideandlovetoeveryone.Even
themostextremescepticsaid'OnthismatterIhavenotyetmadeupmymind'whichwas
somekindofgrudgingapproval.Butoneyoungpacifist-humanistcouldnotquiteapprove.

'Again,adifficultquestion.Ontheonehand-ImmortalLegionisagoodideafornational
rejoicingandpreservingthenationalhistoricalmemory.Itcaughtpublic'sattentionandwas
widelyshownonTV.Butontheotherhand-isn'titbettertoshownationalrejoicinginsome
moresociallyusefularrangements?Helpingthepoor,orphansorevenjustplantingtrees.
Tomyminditwasbetter,whensomeyearsagowehadacelebrationofVictorydayplanting
apinetreeandplacingasignwithanameofrelative,whodiedduringthewar.Ithink,our
ancestorswouldhaveapproveditmore.'

OneofthewordsthatappearedinanswerstothesetwoquestionsaboutCivicSocietywas
'patriotic'.Itoccurredquiteoften.Anditraisesthequestionofwhen'patriotism'isagood
thingandwhenitisnot.

OneoftheaccusationslevelledagainstPutinby'theWest'isthathehasencouragednasty
kindsofnationalismthatinordertobolsterupRussiahehasgivenquietsupporttovarious
neo-NaziRussiangroups.

Iwanttosaysomethingaboutthisimmediately.Idonotdoubtthatthereareunpleasant
Russian'nationalists',justasthereareunpleasantBritish'nationalists'quiteanumberof
whomexpecttoseeincreasingattentiontotheirviewsinthiscountry.Russianneo-nazis
havetheirwebsites,theiranti-Muslim,anti-Semite,anti-Caucasian,anti-Ukrainianviews.
Theyhavedrunkenfracasandtheycanbemurderous.ButIhaveneverseenorheardany
Russianapprovingofsuchgroups-includingthemostfiercelypatrioticandenthusiastic
followersofofficialRussianpropaganda.OfcourseImeetaselectednumberofpeople
bothinRussiaandinBritain.Idon'tmeetextremenationalistsinBritain.Butinbothcases
thesepeopleseemtobefringegroups,notwelcomedatallbygovernmentsorofficials.

OnVictoryDayinMoscow,asIsaid,thegovernmentbroughtoutmissilesandadvanced
armaments-thebiggestdisplayever.InthatsenseRussiannationalismwastothefore.In
ashortspeechPutinthankedtheAmericans,theBritishandotheralliesforhelpingto
defeatNazismin1945-andquietlyindicatedthattheyhadchosennottocomeonthis70th
anniversary.HetalkedaboutthefightforhumanitytowhichalltheseRussiancitizens'
ancestorshadcontributed,AndheshowedoffRussianstrengthtotheforeigndignitaries.

Then-advancingonRedSquarecameamassofordinarypeople.Andtotheconfusionof
theChinesePresident,Putingotdownoffthetribunalandwenttojointhewalkers,carrying
apictureofhisownfatherwhofoughtinthewar.Inthiscrowdhewasoneofhalf-a-million.
Isthisanexampleofgrotesquegovernmentpropaganda?IsitanexampleofthePresident
takingoverthelocalcivicdemonstrationsofthepeople?OrisitawayforthePresidentto
bepartofthepeople.(Hewasafterall,walkinginthemidstofthousandssomeofwhom
probablydidnotfeeltotallyenthusiasticabouthim.)

WouldObamadothis?WouldCameron?Doesitmatter?

IaskthesequestionsasIcomeontothelastquestionwhichIsentouttomyreaders.

(8)HasRussiachangedrecently.Andifso,forthebetterortheworse.

Somepeoplesaidnothingmuchhadchangedexceptpriceshadgoneup.Usuallythe
implicationseemedtobe-lifeisgenerallydullorgloomyandwehavetoputupwithit.

Asmallishminoritysaidithaddefinitelychangedfortheworse:norespectforhumanrights,
toomuchChurch-propaganda,terriblemass-media,agenerallybrain-washedpopulation.

"Russiahaschangedfortheworsebecauseoftheactivegovernmentalpropaganda:all
thosetalksabout'externalenemiesofRussia','Russianspiritualbonds',and'greatnessof
Russia'makemesick."

Themajorityhoweversaid,'Yes,somethinghaschanged.Acomingtogetherofpeople,a
senseofbeingRussianwithpride.'Sowhatmakesonerespondentsickisobviously
relatedtothepridefeltbyothers.Isit,though,morethangrandwordsfromtoppeople
transmittedthroughthepopulation?

Hereisacommentbyaverythoughtfulcorrespondent.

'Russiahaschangedalotforthelasttwelveyears(notmanychangessince2013,asIcan
see).Thereareverygoodthings-forexample,inbiggercitiesrathersuccessfulwork
againstcorruptionisbeingheldpeoplehavebecome"sated"withfood,goodsand
pleasuresandarelookingforsomethingelse.Andstill,therearethingsthatseemtome
sadandsavage-thementioned"closeness"ofStateandChurch,sometypesof
discrimination,censorshipinmedia,forexample.'

Andnow,fromaprovincialcity-andIcouldhavepickedupmanyothercomments:

'IthinkRussiahaschangedandischangingforthebetter.Peoplearebecomingmore
patriotic,theyaremoreconfidentintheirfuture(youcanseethatbythenumberofbabies
beingborn)-ourbirthrateisdefinitelygoingup!Morepeoplearewillingtoworkforthe
benefitofthecountry.Notonlyfortheirpersonalsurvival.

'AnotherthingthatInotice,sinceIamintouchwiththissphere,isthattheyareclosing
downalotoforphanages,becausetherearejusttoofewchildreninthem.Theyare
mergingseveralorphanagesintoone,becausewedon'tneedthatmanyanymore.One
reasonisthatlessandlessbabiesandchildrenareabandonedandtheotherthingisthata
lotarebeingadopted.Thereisawholeboomofadoptions,Iknowseveralfamilies,who
haveadoptedchildrenevenhavingtheirownones.Thatisanotherpositivetendencythat
saysthatpeoplearebecomingmoreempathictoothers,theyarenotonlycenteredaround
theirpersonallives,butlookingoutward,tryingtohelptheir"neighbours".

'Anationalideaisbeingformedagain,whichhasbeensadlylackingafterthefallofthe
USSR.'

Orassomeoneelseputit:

"Thisdidnothappenovernightbutgradually.Thepeoplearestraighteningtheirshoulders..."

IcouldgoonbutIwillleaveitthereandwaitforquestions.

Answerscamefrom:Arkhangelsk,Barnaul,Belgorod,Blagoveshensk,Chelyabinsk,Chita,
Khabarovsk,Kolomna,Krasnodar,Kurgan,Kursk,Magnitogorsk,Moscow,Naberezhny
Chelny,Novgorod,Omsk,Perm,Piatigorsk,Rostov-on-Don,Samara,StPetersburg,
Tomsk,Tula,Tver,Ulan-Ude,VladivostokandYekaterinburg.

Extracontributionswhichareofinterest:
AreyoumoreorlesssatisfiedwiththeannexationofCrimea?

'Yes.In2010(!!!)IhadabackpackingsummertravelintheCrimeaandstayedovernights
atdozensofordinaryhomesIhadneverknownbefore.IreturnedtoRussiaratherstartled
withthepovertyanddespairthosepeoplelivedin,aswellaswiththeirstrongresolutionto
startmilitaryactionsagainstKiev,incasetheUkrainiangovernmentproceededwiththe
pro-NATOpolicyandturnedtheirbackonRussia.Lotsofpeoplewerekeepingarmsinthe
cellars(Isawthat!!)andmenspokeabouttheirreadinesstodefend"Crimea,theRussian
land"(asoneCossack,aged30said,"WeareRussian,andifKievevertrenchesonour
righttobeRussian,weareorganized,armedandreadytocombat,we'lldefendourland").
TheatmosphereofhatredbetweenvariouspartsofUkrainewasshockingandreally
frightening.Itwasevident,itcouldn'tlastlong.'

'So,whatIwanttosayis:1)theconflictinUkraineisaresultoflong-timedomestic
tensions2)anyforcesthathavebeenfuelingtheconflictaremerelyusingthegroundthat
becamebadlyillbecauseofunwiseactionsoftheUkrainianleadersinthe00s3)theother
scenarioinMarch2014wouldhaveprobablymeantseverestcivilwarinUkraine,withmuch
moredrasticconsequencesforUkrainiansthantheyarehavingnow.'

(4)TheRussiangovernmenthasrepeatedlycalledforanegotiatedpeacesettlementin
EasternUkraine,andworkedattheMinsk1andthentheMinsk2agreements.Isthere
anythingmore-anythingpractical-thattheRussiangovernmentcandotobringabout
peace?

'Ithinkno,becauseit'snotourproblems,reallyIdon'tunderstandwhywholeWorldasks
Russiatomakesomethingforpeace.TheproblemfirstconsideredUkraine,theirpolitic,
economicandsocialhabits,theymakeitbyowncauses.ManyofUkrainepeoplewantsto
liveinRussia,ECandothercountries,becausetheycan'tliveinUkraine.Whatandwhy
shouldwedoelse.Russiahelpsrefugees,butECandUSAdon't,sowhy?'

HasRussiachangedforbetterorworse?

(Anextremeview,butonewhichissupported(orseemstobesupported)byofficial
governmentpropaganda.)'IdonotwantmychildrentoliveaccordingtoEuropean
stereotypesandstandards-andthey,toputitmildly,havedegradedrecently,iftorecall
onlythegaypolicy!!!ThisisDEGRADATIONofthemoralvaluesandthisisdiseasedmind
whichisbeingimposedonRussia,astrongandindependentnation.Idonotwanttolive
amonggaysandlesbians.Theseareabnormalcaseswhicharepopularizedbymighty
EuropeansandAmericans,whowanttocontroltheworld,butareactuallylosingthegame,
becauseit'simpossibletooppresspeoplewhohavetheirownidentities(Russians,
Muslims,Jews...).'

[returntoContents]

#10
RussiaInsider
www.russia-insider.com
September21,2015
MyFirst-HandAccountofaProvincialRussianCity(It'sBustling!)
TravellingalongtheTransSiberianRailwayfromMoscowtoPermrevealsabustling
moderncity-totallydifferentfromthedarkprovincialRussiaofwesternfancy
ByAlexanderMercouris
AlexanderMercourisisawriteroninternationalaffairswithaspecialinterestinRussiaand
law.HehaswrittenextensivelyonthelegalaspectsofNSAspyingandeventsinUkrainein
termsofhumanrights,constitutionalityandinternationallaw.Heworkedfor12yearsinthe
RoyalCourtsofJusticeinLondonasalawyer,specializinginhumanrightsand
constitutionallaw.HisfamilyhasbeenprominentinGreekpoliticsforseveralgenerations.
Heisafrequentcommentatorontelevisionandspeakeratconferences.Heresidesin
London.

AsIreportedforRussiaInsiderafewweeksago,IhaverecentlyvisitedPerm,animportant
industrialcityintheUrals.

ThisismyfirstvisittoaRussiancityotherthanMoscoworSt.Petersburg.
ThetripwasmadepossiblebytheOxfordRussiaProject.Thisis-amongstmuchelse-an
academicexchangebringingtogetherheadsofEnglishDepartmentsfromacrossRussia
andBelarusforseminarsandmeetingswithmajorfiguresintheliterarysceneinEngland.

IamnotawriterandIdonotteachEnglishliterature,butthroughthekindnessofKaren
Hewitt-theextraordinarilygiftedcoordinatoroftheproject-Iwasabletoaccompanymy
wife,whoheadsanEnglishliteraturedepartmentataUniversityinEngland,andwhoisa
regularparticipantintheproject.

ThoughIdidnottakepartinanyoftheseminars,throughthekindnessofthestaffofPerm
StateUniversity(Iwouldspeciallymention-andthank-myoutstandinghostessSvetlana
Polyakova,togetherwiththedeanofhistory,IgorKirianovandhisdaughterOlgaKirianova)I
hadanexceptionallyfullseriesofmeetings,meetinganextraordinaryvarietyofpeoplewho
werekindenoughtogivemetheirtimeandtoanswermymanyquestions.

Theresultwasanexcitingandstimulatingvisit,whichansweredmanyquestions,and
posednewones.

OverthenextfewweeksIintendtowriteaseriesofpiecessettingoutmyimpressions.

BeforehoweverIdosohoweverthereisonegeneralpointIwanttomake.

TheoverwhelmingimpressiontheWesternandRussianliberalmediaconveyoflifein
RussiaoutsideMoscowandSt.Petersburgisoneofgrindingpovertyandharshness.

ArecentarticleinTheEconomist,withtheominoustitle"Russia'sEconomy:ThePathto
Penury",isacaseinpoint.Thearticlestartswithatypicallygloomyopeningparagraph:

"Almost500km(310miles)separateMoscow,Russia'sglitteringcapital,fromitslesser-
knownnamesake,adyingvillagedeepintheforestsoftheTverskayaOblast.

TheroadthatconnectsthembeginsassmoothasphaltbesidetheredwallsoftheKremlin
andendsasarutteddirttrackamidabandonedwoodenhomes.

Thecharactersthatpopulatethetownsandcitiesalongthewayoftenliveverydifferent
lives.

ButasRussia'srecessiondeepens(thecountry'sGDPshrankby4.6%inthesecond
quartermeasuredyear-on-year),theeffectsresonateacrosseverystratumofsociety."
Itproceedstopaintapictureofmiseryandhopelessness,withtheclearimplicationthatthis
ishowlifeislivedbeyond"Russia'sglitteringcapital"-Moscow.

HavingnowactuallyseenPermandmetwithpeoplefromacrossRussiawhowere
attendingthevariousseminars,andhavingalsoseenoneofthesmallsettlementsonthe
railwaylinkingMoscowtoPerm,Icansaythisiscompletenonsense.

ThereispovertyinRussia,ruraldepopulationdoesoccur,andtherearepoorvillagesand
regions.TosupposethatthewholecountryoutsideMoscowandSt.Petersburgislikethat
ishoweversowrongastobegrotesque.

TherealityofPermisofabustlingmoderncity,withpowerfulindustries,adynamic
university,andahighlydevelopedculturallife.Basedonwhatpeoplefromotherregionstold
me,itisbynomeansuntypical.

ThatisnottosaythatPerm-likethecountryasawhole-isfreeofproblems.Overthe
courseoftheseriesofarticlesIintendtowriteIshalltouchonsomeofthem.

Howeveraproperunderstandingofthecountryandofitsproblemsisonlypossibleonce
themythsarebanishedaway.Giventheimmensetractionthesemythshave-andthe
interestsomehaveinperpetuatingthem-banishingthemisnoteasy.Howevertheeffort
hastobemade,andPermisasgoodaplacetostartasany.

[returntoContents]

#11
TheNationalInterest
September24,2015
Russia'sMoralFrameworkandWhyItMatters
AlookintoRussia'smoralframeworkandtherelationshipithaswithreligionandstate
valuescouldhelpusbetterunderstandwhatmakesMoscowtick.
ByNicolaiN.Petro
NicolaiN.PetroisaprofessorUniversityofRhodeIsland.

Russia'smoralframework,particularlyasitappliestocontemporaryRussianforeignpolicy,
differsmarkedlyfromthatoftheWest.

Whilepost-SovietRussiahasnoguidingideology,itdoesarguethatcertainvalues,if
adoptedassharedprinciplesofbehavior,aremorecongenialtointernationalorderthan
others.Russiawouldliketoseesuchprinciplesofbehaviorbemorewidelyadopted,but,
recognizingthateachnation'sculturaldevelopmentisunique,itverymuchopposesefforts
topromoteanyonesetofethicalvaluesbeyonditsborders.Hence,theonlytimethatthe
internationalcommunitymaylegitimatelyappealtotransnationalethicalnorms,iswhen
sucharesanctionedbytheUnitedNations.Thisisahighbar,but,Russiaargues,ithas
beensethighonpurpose,toavoidabuse.

ThespecificvaluesthatRussiaseesasmorecongenialtointernationalorderarethose
sharedbyRussia'sfourtraditionalreligiouscommunities-Judaism,Christianity,Islamand
Buddhism.Theircomfortableinteractionwitheachotherandwiththestate,Russiaargues,
demonstratesthatreligionneednotbeasourceofconflictinthemodernworld.Indeed,
RussianspokesmenhaveoftenarguedthatWesternnationscouldlearnalotfromthe
Russianmodel.

ThismoralframeworkhasledtofourareasoffrictionwiththeWest.

Thefirstinvolvesthenatureoftheinternationalorder.Sincetheriseofhumanrightsand
democracyasexplicitU.S.foreign-policyobjectivesinthe1970s,Westernpoliticalleaders
havearguedthat,inthebestofallpossibleworlds,foreignpolicyisareflectionofdomestic
politics.Thetheorybuiltaroundthisassumption-"democraticpeacetheory"-initsmost
popularformistakentosuggestthatdemocraciesdonotgotowarwitheachother.States
thatpromotedemocracyarethereforepromotingamorallydesirableinternationalorder,
whereasstatesthatobjecttosucheffortsaredeemedimmoral.

AsWesternconcernfordemocracyandhumanrightshasoutpacedthatofinternational
institutions,theUnitedStatesanditsallieshavesoughtwaysaroundtheseinstitutions,by
assertingthatWesternvaluesarethedefacto,ifnotdejure,internationalstandard.When
severalWesternnationsactinconcert,therefore,theydonotrequireanyexplicitmandate
fromtheUnitedNations.ThishasbeenasourceofconsiderablefrictionbetweenRussia
andtheWest.

Athirdsourceoftensionstemsfromtheerosionoftraditionalreligionsasthearbitersof
moralityintheWest.ForsomeintheWest,itfollowsthatinternationalsocietymustnow
findsomealternativenormativeframework.Sincethevaluesofindividualism,secularism
andmodernizationledtotheriseoftheWest,accordingtothislineofthinking,theyserve
asappropriatebenchmarksfortherestofhumanity.

Finally,intoday'sRussianOrthodoxChurchiscloselypartneredwiththestate.Itprovides
bothintellectualandmoralsupporttomanystatepolicies,notbecauseithasto,but
becauseitwantsto.ThecurrentmoralframeworkofRussianforeignpolicyis,indeed,its
view,whichtheChurchpromotesbecauseitisconvincedthatcreatinga"congenial
internationalorder"willassistitinitsthreefoldsalvificmission-tosaveindividualsouls,to
saveallnationalculturesthathavebeenbaptizedintoChrist,andtosaveallmankind.
Needlesstosay,thisisasfarfromthedoctrineofseparationofChurchandStateasEast
isfromWest.

ThemoralcontoursofthepresentEast-Westconflictshouldnowbereadilyapparent.
Russiaopposestheadoptionofanysinglesetofculturalvaluesasthestandardfor
internationalbehavior.ManyintheWestcounterthatWesternvaluesarenotjustalone
culturalstandard,butthedefactouniversalstandard.Russialabelsthisunilateralismand
advocatesamultipolarworldorderbasedonpluriculturalismasabetteralternative.

Pluriculturalismarguesthatthereisaninherent("God-given,"accordingtoVladimirPutin)
valuetodiversityamongnations.Thisisdistinctfrommulticulturalismwhichvalues
diversitywithinnations.Russiaassignsdiversitywithinnationsalowerprioritythanitdoes
diversityamongnations.Bycontrast,Westernstatesmoretypicallyprizediversitywithin
nations(therightsoftheindividual),whereasamongnationstheyseektosubordinate
nationalculturaldifferencestostandards,suchashumanrights,thatexpressmodern
Westernvalues.

Thepotentialforinternationalconflictisobvious,butitishardlyinevitable.Foronething,if
welookatthisdebateinhistoricalandreligiouscontext,weseethatithasdeeprootsinthe
West.

Thus,Russia'spluriculturalism,whicharguesthatnationalculturaldistinctionsimpose
certainmorallimitsontheconductofforeignpolicy,usedtobecalled"American
exceptionalism"inthiscountryandwastypicallycitedasthereasonAmericadoesNOTgo
abroad,asJohnQuincyAdamsputit,"insearchofmonsterstodestroy."Contrastthisto
presidentObama'sassertionlastyearatWestPointthat"Americamustalwaysleadonthe
worldstage.Ifwedon't,nooneelsewill,"whichtakesitforgrantedthatsubjectingall
nationstoAmericanleadershipisamoralgood.

Justhowmuchourmoralframeworkhasshiftedovertimecanbegleanedfromthefact
thattodaythebestknownarticulatorofAdams'concernthat,shouldAmericabecome"the
dictatressoftheworld:shewouldbenolongerbetherulerofherownspirit,"isnoteven
American.ItisVladimirPutin.

NoristheOrthodoxChurch'smoralframeworkas"anti-modern"or"anti-liberal"asit
appearstobeatfirstblush.ThewritingsofseniorRussianclergyonthesesubjectsquite
nuanced,arguingthatboththeEnlightenmentandliberalismwerebothvaluableand
progressivesocialidealsintheirday,butthathavingabandonedthemoralframework
providedbytheChurch,theyhavedeformedandbecomemonstrous.

WhattheOrthodoxChurchdoesreject,andthiswholeheartedly,issecularism.Andthefact
thatcontemporaryWesternsocietiestendtoregardsecularism,alongwithmodernityand
liberalism,asformingthequintessentialWesterntrinityofvalues,issomethingthatthe
RussianOrthodoxChurchiskeentoreverse.

Thisis,ofcourse,aconflictofvisions,andsomepoliticalfalloutfromitisinevitable.Itis
alsounderstandablethat,inseculardiscourse,theRussianOrthodoxChurchisoften
treatedasapoliticalactor,becauseitclearlyis.Itisalsoaneconomicactor,alegalactor,a
culturalactor,aneducationalactor,insumitisactiveinliterallyeverysphereofpubliclife.
Thequestionweoughttoponder,however,ishowbesttopreventthisconflictofidealsfrom
spillingoverintooutrighthostility.Onewaytomitigatethepoliticalrepercussionsthatderive
fromourconflictingeschatologiesmightbetorecognizejusthowlittlethissecularactivity
meanstotheOrthodoxChurch.

WeshouldneverlosesightofthefactthattheChurchseesitself,firstandforemost,asa
supernaturalactor-themanifestationoftheHolySpiritinhistory.Whatdopoliticalbattles
matterwhenoneiscompetingforeveryindividualsoul,fortheverysoulofmankind?This
latteristheonlystrugglethathasmeaningfortheChurch,thatisitsraisond'etre,andits
outcomewillnotbedecidedbypolitics.

Moreover,inthisall-definingbattle,theChurchhasanalmostinsurmountableadvantage
overallpoliticalactors,governments,andevennations.Itstimeframeforsuccessis
eternity,whichisawfullyhardtobeat.

ButhowsuccessfulcanRussiabeinitseffortstopropagateitsmoralframework?How
attractiveisit?Theanswerdependsonwhichregionoftheworldoneistalkingabout.

Ifsoftpoweristhoughtofastheuseofreligiousand/orculturalaffinitytoachieveforeign
policyobjectives,thenitisnotsurprisingthatmostofRussia'sneighborsremainquite
receptivetoRussiansoftpower.Sometimes,asinUkraineandGeorgia,thismutual
dependencyismanifestedina"love-hate"relationshipthatkeepsRussiaatthecenterof
publicattention,evenasnationalelitesdesperatelyseektodistancetheircountryfrom
Russianculturalinfluence.

CultureandreligionthereforeremainpowerfulassetsinRussia'seffortstoestablisha
EurasianUnionandtoimpedealternatives,sinceitisalwayseasiertoforgepoliticaland
economicallyattractiveoptionsfromacommonculturalfoundation,thantoattemptthe
reverse.

ButtherealtestforRussiansoftpowerwillbewhetheritcanshapepreferencesinareasof
theglobethathavetraditionallybeenoutsideitsculturalinfluence.Toexpanditsreach,
Russiaispromotingtwosimplemessagesthatarelikelytoresonatedeeplywithmanynon-
Westernstates.

Thefirst,isthatitisalrightfornon-Westernnationstobetruetothemselves.Tosucceedin
theworld,onedoesnothavetomoveinlockstepwiththeWesternmodelofdevelopment.
TheriseoftheBRICS,Russiaargues,hasproventhatdiverseapproachestodevelopment
cancompeteverysuccessfullywith"theWashingtonConsensus,"andthatlocaltraditions
canprovideareservoirofsocialresourcesthatcanbeusedtoenhanceglobal
competitiveness.

ThesecondmessageisthatitisalrighttochallengeprevailingWesternnotionsconcerning
theadvantagesofaconsumerorientedsociety.Inmanynon-Westernsocieties,
consumerismisblamednotonlyforleadingdirectlytospiritualcrisis,butalsotoresource,
demographic,andecologicalcrises.Thecommonresponsehasbeentoseeka
sustainable,autochthonousspiritualdevelopment,uponwhichtobuildasustainable,
autochthonouseconomicdevelopment.

Inhisbook,TheRighteousMind,professorJonathanHaidthighlightsthevastvaluesgap
thatexistsbetweenthe"Western,Educated,Industrialized,Rich,andDemocratic"nations
(WEIRD),andnationsthatpreferan"ethicofcommunity"oran"ethicofdivinity."Inthese
latter,Haidtwrites,"thepersonallibertyofsecularwesternnations"-includingthe
unrestrainedfreedomofexpression-"lookslikelibertinism,hedonism,andacelebrationof
humanity'sbaserinstincts."

Whathastransformedthisratheramorphousvaluesconsensusintoadiscernibleglobal
agendaforanewworldorderisthegrowingsensethattheWest,thoughstilldominantin
power,wealth,andresources,lackstheculturalandspiritualcapacitytodealwithmany
emergingglobalcrises.Traditionalreligionsalsotypicallyreinforcetheideathatthereisa
limittohumanity'sabilitytotransformitselfanditsenvironment,andthattoassertthe
contrary,as"WEIRD"valuesdo,isdangeroushubris.

MostWesternanalysts,however,cannotfathomwhythiswouldleadtoaconfluenceof
interestsamongcountriesasdiverseasBrazil,Russia,India,ChinaandSouthAfrica.[1]
Perhapsabetterwaytothinkofitisthis-thesoftpoweroftheBRICSisanexpressionnot
ofanyonesetofnationalvalues,butofthecommonvaluesthat,accordingtothesestates,
oughttounderlieanewinternationalorder.

Russia'smoralframeworkfitsthisagendalikeaglove,magnifyingtheimpactofRussian
softpower.Russianowbelievesthatitcanrelyonacoreconstituencyofstatestoassistit
inthefaceofintensewesternhostility,sinceitseffortsbenefitnotonlyRussia,butindirectly
allnationsthatsharethedesireforanewinternationalorder.

Thisisanextendedversionoftheauthor'spresentationon"Russia'sSoftPower:AMatter
forChurchandState"attheCarnegieCouncilforEthicsinInternationalAffairsinNewYork
City,September10,2015.

[1]AnotableexceptionisprofessorGilbertRozmanwhoselatestbook,TheSino-Russian
ChallengetotheWorldOrder,arguesthatadeepculturalaffinityhasemergedbetween
ChinaandRussiathatisbasedonthecommongoalofreshapingthepresentWestphalian
internationalsystem.

[returntoContents]

#12
http://gordonhahn.com
December8,2015
Putin:ARussianNeo-Traditionalist,NotaWesternConservative
ByGordonM.Hahn

ManyinthatsmallbutnotinsignificantminorityofWestern,includingAmerican
conservativeswhotoonedegreeoranothersupportmanyofRussianPresidentVladimir
Putin'sactionsdosooftenundertheillusionthatheisaconservative.Towhatextentdo
Putin'spositionscorrelatewithWesternconservatismandtowhatextentdotheydiffer?

PutinisnotaconservativeintheWesternorAmericansenseoftheterm.(Neitherishea
StalinistorrestoreroftheSovietorevenRussianemoireofold.Indeed,Putinhasjust
approvedanewmonumentandmuseumtobebuiltindowntownMoscowdedicatedthe
victimsofStalinismandcommunism.)

RussianNeo-Traditionalism,NotConservatism

AlthoughsomeofthepositionsPutinstakesoutinbuildingapost-SovietRussian
traditionalismoverlapwithviewsheldbysomeWesternconservatives,PutinisaRussian
traditionalistandstatistratherthanaWestern-styleconservative.

Putin'snewRussiantraditionalismorneo-traditionalismisbasedonseveralprinciples:(1)
statism,(2)stability,(3)freedomof,notfreedomfromreligion,and(4)culturalandsocial
conservatismortraditionalism.

Putin'sStatism

Putinisastatistinpolitics,economics,andsocioculturalmatters.Inpolitics,thestateand
politicalstabilityarealmostalwaystobegivenpreferenceoverindividuallibertyand
freedomwhentheseprinciplesclash.Forexample,ifmasspublicdemonstrationsrunthe
riskofdevolvingintoviolenceorattemptstooverthrowtheauthorities,thenthose
demonstrationswillbebannedorotherwiserestricted.

ThisisnottosaythereisnofreedomofassociationandspeechinRussia.Thereare
politicalprotestsheldsomewhereinRussiaeveryday,andallpointsofviewcanbeheard
onthestateandprivateairwaves,printmedia,andInternet.Anotherexampleisthestate's
willingnesstoblocktheparticipationofsomepoliticalpartiesinelectionsforfeartheymay
destabilizethelegislativeandpoliticalprocess.Anotheristhestate'scompletecontrolof
nationaltelevisionbroadcastingor'airwaves'(excludingsatelliteandInternettelevision),
thoughownershipinradio,printandInternetisdecentralizedandincludesprivatevendors.

Insimpleterms,PutinandmanyRussiansarewillingtorestrictpoliticalandcivilrightsin
ordertoensurethereisnoriskofpoliticalinstabilitywhatsoever.Thisisanapproachalmost
allAmericanconservativesabhor.Russianliberalsandleftists,ontheotherhand,arequite
eagertoputcontrolsonmedia,especiallyconservative-dominatedtalkradioshows,to
enforcepoliticalcorrectness(conformity)inthemedia,schools,universities,andthe
workplaceinordertoensure'balance,'andtoenforcereversediscriminationagainstwhite
males,callingitaffirmativeactionandbreakingtheglassceiling.Onthislastcategory,Putin
wouldmostcertainlynotaver.

Thesameistruewith'Putinomics'.SincePutin'sarrivalintheKremlinin2000,thestate's
roleintheeconomyhassteadilyexpanded.Putinnationalizedlargechunksofmajor
industries,creatingnationalgiants,andincreasedthestate'sshareintheeconomyfrom
minority-ownershiptomajority-ownership.Therehasbeennomajorrestructuringthrough
privatizationorsignificantsectoraldiversification.Exportsofenergy(mostlyoilandgas),
naturalresources(gold,diamonds,coal)andunfinishedproducts(steelandothermetals)
comprisemostofRussia'stradeexportsandbudgetrevenues.Exceptionsarethenuclear
energyindustry(state-owned)andtheprivatebuthighlysubsidized(asintheWest)
agriculturalproductionandfoodmanufacturingindustries,whererealreformshave
producedgloballycompetitiveindustries.Regardless,fullyorpartlystate-ownedcompanies
accountforsome60percentofRussianstockmarketvaluation,comparedto80percentin
China.State-ownedbankscontroloverhalfofRussia'sbankingoperations.

In2011,theRussianbusinessweeklyBiznesivlast'(BusinessandPower)examinedthe
state'sshareincompanies'totalshareholdervalueinordertodeterminethelevelofstate
participationinkeyeconomicsectors.Theresearchshowedthatstateparticipationwas
greatestintransportation(railways,oilandnaturalgaspipelines)withthestateholding75
percentofassets.Othersectorsregisteredasfollows:aerospaceandshipbuilding-57
percent,electricity-50percentormore,naturalgasproduction-50percent,productionof
electronichardware-27percent,machine-building-15percent,telecommunications-14
percent,construction-9percent,oilindustry-23percent,oilrefining-8percent,andnon-
ferrousmetalsproduction-3percent.Thesteelindustry'sassetsarecompletelyunder
privateownership
(http://rbth.com/articles/2012/03/23/what_kind_of_capitalism_has_russia_built_15160.html).
However,muchoftheprivatizationinthesespheresoccurredinthe1990snotunderPutin.
Indeed,in2004theKremlinnationalizedoneofRussia'slargestoilcompanies'Yukos',and
in2011Putinreversedmosttheprivatizationofelectricityproductionandsupply,whichwas
atestcaseofprivatizationformajorsectorsintheeconomy.

Beyondsectoralownershipanalysis,therearesomeareaswheretheeconomyhasseen
liberalizationinthePutinera,butithasbeenachievedbywayofastate-driven
modernizationthatseekstokeepanyeconomicliberalizationfromaffectingthepolitical
economyandpoliticsproper.Thiscanbeseenfromthesphereswhereliberalizationhas
occurred:businessfreedom,tradefreedom,fiscalfreedom,laborfreedom,andfreedom
fromcorruption(www.heritage.org/index/country/russia).Anothercaveathereisthatalmost
allthesesuccessesaretheresultsofreformscarriedoutduringDmitriiMedvedev's
presidency.Thus,itdependsonhowmuchfreereinonethinksMedvedevhadinorderto
determinehowmuchcreditthenPrimeMinisterPutindeserves.Medvedevbilledhimselfas
aReaganite/Thatcheriteconservativeineconomicsattheoutsetofhispresidency,butthe
promisedrobustprivatizationprogramnevermaterialized,leavingtheeconomylargely
state-runandstate-owned.

ItisreallyonlyinthesocialandculturalrealmsthatmanyofPutin'sviewsapproximate
Westernconservatism.HedefendsreligiousfreedomagainstattemptsbyRussianliberals
torestrictreligiousfreedom.Forexample,ratherthanbanningreligiouseducationinpublic
schools,Putin'sEducationMinistryimplementedaprogramofchoice,wherebyparents
couldchoosefromcoursesonRussianOrthodoxChristianity,Judaism,Islam,Buddhism,
andethicsfortheirchildren.Officialstatefunctionsandchaplainsforthemilitaryincludethe
clergyofRussia'sothertraditionalreligions-theROC,Judaism,Islam,andBuddhism.
Statefundshelpfinancethebuildingofchurches,synagogues,mosques,anddatsans.To
besure,PutinhasgivenprideofplacetotheRussianOrthodoxChurch(ROC)butonly
slightly,and80percentofbelieversinRussiaidentifythemselvesasRussianOrthodox.

Inconsistentwithhispro-religioussocio-culturalpositionisPutin'stoleranceoffree,state-
fundedabortions,whichremainsanon-issueinRussianpolitics-aholdoverfromthe
SovieterathatWesternliberalsdonotchallenge.

Consistentwithhisreligiousstance,Putinhasputmodestlimitsonhomosexuality,
specificallythebanningofpropagandizinghomosexualityandtransgenderismtochildren.
Asanaside:clearly,anysanegaypersonwouldmuchprefertoliveinRussiathaninthe
manyrepressiveIslamiccountrieswithwhichtheU.S.hashadcloseties.Asanother
aside:IdonotrecallU.S.PresidentBarackObamalecturingtheSaudiKingabouttheneed
toobservegayrights,includinggaymarriage,thestuffoffun,prosepctiveSaturdayNight
Livesketch.

Oneareawheresomeconservativesseemtosufferfrommilitaryenvyistheirsometimes
supportorunderstandingforPutin'srobustforeignpolicyandmilitaryadventures.
Conservativestendtobemorehawkishthanliberalsandleftists,puttingasidethefactthat
someliberalsarebecomingrathergunghowhenitcomestohumanitarianinterventions
thatoftendonotinvolveavitalAmericaninterest.Mostconservatives,excludinglibertarians
andsomeothers,respectaleaderwillingtostandupforthecountry'snationalinterestsand
security.TheconservativecritiqueofPresidentObama'sforeignpolicyissometimes
couchedintermssuchas:'AtleastPutindefendshiscountry.'

Conclusion

PutinisaRussiantraditionalistandstatistratherthanaWestern-styleconservative.His
views,whileclosertothoseofAmericanconservativesonsocialissues,aremuchcloser
toAmericanliberalandleftistpositionsregardingstateinterferenceintheeconomy.Putin
hasachievedintheRussianeconomywhatPresidentObamaandotherAmericanand
evenEuropeanleftistscanonlydreamof,fornow.Eveninpolitics,Putinisclosertothe
increasinglyintolerantleftthantheright.

Sowhichisgreater-theextenttowhichPutin'spositionscorrespondwithconservatismor
differfromconservatism?Itappearsthelatterandbyaconsiderable,notconservative
margin.

GordonM.HahnisanAnalystandAdvisoryBoardMemberoftheGeostrategicForecasting
Corporation,Chicago,IllinoisaSeniorResearcher,CenterforTerrorismandIntelligence
Studies(CETIS),AkribisGroup,SanJose,CaliforniaandanAnalyst/Consultant,Russia
OtherPointsofView-RussiaMediaWatch,http://www.russiaotherpointsofview.com.

[returntoContents]

#13
Forbes.com
April25,2015
Russia'sEconomy:NotJustNaturalResources
ByMarkAdomanis
[Chartsherehttp://www.forbes.com/sites/markadomanis/2015/04/25/russias-economy-not-
just-natural-resources/]

Russia'seconomydoesn'tgetalotoflove.It's"Nigeriawithsnow,""BurkinaFasowith
rockets,"or,inJohnMcCain'soft-repeatedquip,"agasstationmasqueradingasacountry."

Tobesure,naturalresourcesgenuinelyplayalargerole.Itwouldbefoolish(and
inaccurate!)totrytototallydiscountthehugeinfluenceofcompanieslikeGazprom,
Rosneft,andseveralotherstate-runresourceextractors.TheRussianstate'sfinances
reallyarebasedontheheavytaxationofenergyproducers,andtheKremlinwouldbeina
worldoftroubleiftheoil/gasspigotevertrulyrandry.

ButRussia,despitewhatyouoftenhear,ismorethanjustagasstation.It'smanufacturing
andservicesectorsaren'tparticularlycompetitivebyworldstandards(veryfewpeoplein
NorthAmericaarebuyingRussiancars)buttheydoexist.

UsingWorldBankdataonnaturalresourcerents,officiallydefinedas"thedifference
betweenthevalueofcommodityproductionatworldpricesandtotalcostsofproduction,"
it'sinstructivetocompareRussia'sleveltothoseinthemembersofOPEC,theprototypical
petrostates.

Asisclearfromthechart,naturalresourcerentsareanon-negligiblepercentageof
Russianoutput.Buttheserentsarenowherenearashighasinmanyoftheworld'slargest
oilproducers.Russianresourcerentsaren'tevenparticularlylargecomparedtootherpost-
Sovietstates:Azerbaijan(36%),Kazakhstan(29%),andUzbekistan(20.1%)allhad
proportionallylargerrents.

It'salsointerestingtocompareRussia'sactualGDPpercapitawithwhatitwouldhave
beenifallnaturalresourcerentswereeliminated.Here,again,Russiajustdoesn'tappear
tobeparticularlyexceptionalwhencomparedtoOPECmembers.

Indeedafteradjustingforresourcerents,Russia'sGDPpercapitawouldberoughly
$19,000,alevelthatisbroadlysimilartopost-communistcountrieslikeBulgaria($15,600),
Poland($22,800),andRomania($18,000).Russia'sadjustedGDPpercapitaalso
comparesreasonablywellwithadjustedpercapitaincomesinotherresource-dependent
post-SovietstateslikeAzerbaijan($10,500)andKazakhstan($15,500)ormajoroil
producerstowhichitisoftencomparedlikeLibya($12,000),Venezuela($13,500),orIran
($9,000).

Sowhatisthetakeaway?IsitthatRussia'seconomyissomekindofbuddinghegemon?
No.Theimportantthingtorememberisthat,whenyoucompareittothoseofotherpost-
SovietstatesorOPECmembers,Russia'seconomyisnotuniquelyprimitiveorresource
dependent.WeneedtokeepthisinmindnottobolsterRussians'tenderfeelingsbut
becauseifyouformulatepolicybasedontheassumptionthatRussiaisa"gasstation
masqueradingasacountry"thatpolicywon'tworkverywellbecauseRussiaismuchmore
thanjustagasstation.

Indeed,asshownabove,Russiaminusallofitsincomefromoil,gas,timber,andminerals
isbasicallyamuchlargerversionofRomania.Romania,ofcourse,isn'texactlyan
economicmiracle,butitisademocraticmemberingoodstandingoftheEuropeanUnion
andNATO.

[returntoContents]
#14
ChristianScienceMonitor
May18,2015
SpurredbyWesterncriticism,Russiansexperiencesomethingnew:patriotism
Inthepast,Russiawasanempire,thenacommunistcolossus,thena'defeated'power
expectedtoadoptWesternways.ButcurrenttensionswiththeWestarefosteringwhat
maybethebirthofadistinctRussiannationalism.
ByFredWeir,Correspondent

MOSCOW-ThesnappingpointcameforPavelMelikhov,hesays,whenheheard
PresidentObamacompareRussiatoadisease.

InaspeechtotheUNlastSeptember,thepresidentlistedthetopthreatstoglobalsecurity,
withEbolacomingfirst,"RussianaggressioninEurope"second,andtheIslamicState
groupinthirdplace.Mr.Melikhov,amiddle-agedMoscow-areabusinessman,saysthat
momentcrystallizedhiswayofthinkingabouthiscountryanditsplaceintheworld.

HehadfeltsupportivewhenMoscowannexedCrimealastyear-asdidahugemajorityof
Russians-andsayshebelievedthatPresidentVladimirPutinwasdefendingRussia's
naturalinterestsbybackingRussian-speakingrebelsineasternUkraineagainsta
revolutionary,anti-MoscowgovernmentthattookpowerinKievlastyear.ButMr.Obama's
remarkjoltedhimbyrevealingagapingchasmbetweenwhatseemedobvioustohim,asa
Russian,andthewaypeopleintheWestseemtoperceivethesameevents.

Recommended:Sochi,Soviets,andtsars:HowmuchdoyouknowaboutRussia?
"Itwasn'tjustme.Allmyco-workerswerestunned,"hesays."TheleaderoftheUSputour
countryonablacklistwithavirusandaterroristorganization.Thatsaysitall.Themasks
areoff.TheUSisnotafriendit's'us'and'them'now.Ihavefinallyandcompletely
understoodthat."

Melikhovisnotanoutlierintoday'sRussiaindeed,heappearstobepartofthenew
normal.Overthepastyearsomethinghashappenedinthebroadpublicmind,whichlooks
tosomeexpertslikethebirthofadistinctRussiannationalismforthefirsttimeinhistory.

Inthepast,Russiawasanempire,thenacommunistcolossus,thena"defeated"power
thatwasexpected-evenbyitsleaders-toadoptWesternways.Tobea"Russian"always
meantbeingpartofastatewithgrandambitionsandanideologythatdidnotaddress,or
evenadmit,aseparateRussianexistence.

ButamidaglobalgeopoliticalcrisisoverUkraine,itspro-Europeanrevolution,andthecivil
warittriggered,"weseeRussiansgropingforanidentitymoreintenselythaneverbeforein
thepastquartercentury,"saysMashaLipman,anindependentpoliticalexpert.

"There'saclearnationalistdrive,yetstillnoclarityonwhatthenewidentityis.Russiaisno
longeranempire,butnotyetanationstate,"shesays.

Patriotism,awakened

It'snotthatMelikhovwasunpatrioticbefore.Whenhewasaboy,hewasaregularat
Desantnik,aprivatedowntownMoscowmilitary-patrioticclubstartedinthe1980sandrun
byformerspecialservicesofficers.There,youngpeoplearetaughtparamilitaryskillslike
hand-to-handcombat,flying,parachuting,andmarksmanship.

Theclub'spresidentisYuryShaparin,aveteranoftheSovietUnion'swarinAfghanistan,
whosayshefoundedtheclubtofosterpatrioticvaluesamongyoungpeopleinpractical
ways,mainlythroughphysicaltraining.Hekeptitgoingthroughthebitteryearsfollowingthe
USSR'scollapse,whentheeconomyimplodedandthen-PresidentBorisYeltsinledRussia
downapaththatseemedtoacceptnotonlytheWest'shegemony,butalsoitspolitical,
economic,andculturalvalues.

"ThereseemedlikenoroomforbeingaRussian.ItwashardtofeelpatrioticunderYeltsin,"
Mr.Shaparinsays,standinginDesantnik'sgym,whereaboutadozenyoungpeopleare
learningtokickbox.NearbythereisarackofKalashnikovrifles,forshootingpractice.

Thepastdecade-and-a-halfunderMr.Putinhavebeenyearsofrelativeprosperity,when
peoplegotonwiththeirprivatelivesandpaidlittleattentiontopolitics.But,accordingto
Shaparin,theeventsofthepastyearhaveawakenedasenseamongRussiansthatthey
arenotlikepeopleintheWest,theircountryhasitsowninterests,andtheyhavenooneto
relyonbutthemselves.

"Wedon'twishforwar,andwedon'tfeeltheWestisanenemy,butmanypeoplenowsee
thattheyaretryingtoforceusintoabox,surrounduswithmilitarybases,makeusgiveup
Ukraine,andbreakupwhat'sleftofourcountry,"hesays.

"WhatweteachhereisthatRussiacanbesaved,andallthesesanctionsandNATO
threatscanbedefeated,ifRussiansgrowmoreaware,learntobestrongandfit,andbe
willingtoworktogethertobuildabettercountry.Nothinggoodwillcomefromgivinginto
outsidepressure."

Anti-Americanism

Publicopinionsurveysoffersnapshotsofthisemergingmood.

MostfrequentlycitedaretheapprovalratingsofPutin,whichhaveremainedata
stratospheric80-pluspercentoverayear-aspanthatstartedwithanti-Moscowrevolution
inKiev.Thatwasfollowedbyfalloutofallkinds:thehastyannexationofthemainlyRussian-
populatedCrimeanpeninsulacovertKremlinsupportforpro-Russianseparatistsin
Ukraine'sbittercivilwarincreasingWesternsanctionsonRussia'seconomyalongwith
effortstoisolateMoscowontheworldstageaharsheconomiccrisisandanear-
catastrophicplungeinthevalueofthenationalcurrency,theruble.

AyearaftertheannexationofCrimea,apollbythestate-runVTsIOMagencyfoundthattwo-
thirdsofrespondentsapprovedoftheaction,and89percentbelievedtheterritoryshouldn't
bereturnedtoUkraineunderanycircumstances.AMarchsurveybytheindependent
LevadaCenterfoundthat68percentbelievethatRussiaisa"greatpower,"upfrom30
percentinanidenticalpolltaken10yearsago.

AnotherrecentVTsIOMpollfoundonlyaslightmajorityofRussianswereevenawareof
Westernsanctionsagainstthecountry,butofthose,wellover80percentbelievedthe
sanctionswereimposedwithillintenttowardRussia.Lessthan1percentthoughttheWest
had"goodintentions."

Mostalarmingly,anti-Americansentimentisatitshighestpeaksincereliablepollingof
Russiansbeganinthemid-1980s.AccordingtoaMarchLevadasurvey,73percentof
respondentshada"negative"attitudetowardtheUS,upfrom56percentayearearlier.

'Aprocess,notanaccident'

Thesedatapointsconnecttomakeacoherentpicture,sayexperts.TheUkrainiancrisis
wasjustatriggerforaprocessthatwaswaitingtohappen,saysOlgaKamenchuk,an
expertwithVTsIOM."Suchchangesinpopularviewsdonotcomeoutoftheblue."

RussianshavebeenmentallydistancingthemselvesfromtheWesternmodeloflifefor
sometime.ButtheUkrainiancrisisbroughtforthaflurryofreactions,includingsolidarity
withRussian-speaking"compatriots"suchasCrimeansandeasternUkrainians,thesense
thatahostileWestisworkingtosurroundRussiaandthwartitsregionalinterests,and
vagueryearningsforadeepersenseofnationalpurpose.

"WhateverishappeninginmodernRussiaisaprocess,notanaccident,anditcanbe
expectedtounfoldfurther,"saysMs.Kamenchuk.

TheKremlinhasworkedhardtoshapetheseperceptionsandharnessthemtoensureits
ownpoliticalsurvival.Somebasicconceptsofthenewpatriotismhavebeeninitially
expressedbyPutin,thenamplifiedbythevaststatepropagandamachine,whichdominates
whatmostRussiansseeandhear.

Theyincludethenotionofthe"RussianWorld,"whosegeographyextendsbeyondRussia's
borderstoembracepeoplewhoselanguage,culture,andmindset-thoughnotnecessarily
ethnicity-areRussian,suchasCrimeans,Abkhazians,Transdnistrians,andquiteafew
otherfar-flunggroups.

TheassertionthatRussiahasaresponsibilitytoprotectsuchpopulations,andperhaps
gatherthembacktotheMotherland,hassetnervesjanglingaroundEasternEurope.
Another,alsooriginatingwithPutin,istheclaimthatliberals,gays,andother"Westernized"
Russiansrepresenta"fifthcolumn"thatthreatenstosubvertRussiansocietyfromwithin.

"ForRussianmassopinion,theappealtoforceisverypopular.Forceincreasesrespect,"
saysAlexeiGrazhdankin,deputydirectoroftheLevadaCenter."Russianseasilyaccept
thattheWest'santagonismtowardourcountryisbasedonpurehostility.Evenifliving
standardsareworsening,theydon'tdoubttheofficialexplanationthatit'sdueto'enemy
action'andnotourownpolicies.Basically,Russianshavealwayswantedtoliveinastrong
country,andtheyarepreparedtopayapriceforthat."

Thelimitsofpatrioticsentiments

ButwhileRussiansmaybemorepatrioticthaneverintheirhearts,mosthaveyetto
expressthatpatriotismthroughaction.AttemptstoconvinceRussianstoactuallyjoin
patrioticorganizationsandstagehuge,Soviet-stylepro-Kremlinstreetdemonstrations,
havenotproventobesosuccessful.

NikolaiStarikovisawriterandorganizeroftheapparentlyindependentAnti-Maidan
movement,whichseekstoraisepatrioticconsciousnessandactivelyopposeanysignof
Ukrainian-style,pro-democracyrevolutioninRussia.

HepresidedoverasmalldemonstrationofhissupportersoutsidetheUSembassy,ona
blusteryAprilafternooninMoscow.About50protesters,mainlyuniversitystudents,heldup
bannersdecryingNATOexpansionand"USinterference"inUkraine.

"OurAmericanpartnershaveunleashedawarinsidetheRussianWorldandatRussia's
frontiers.TheydonotconcealtheirplanstochangetheregimeinRussia,"hesays.

ButmostMuscovites,hurryingbyinthelatewintersnowstorm,seemedcompletely
oblivious.Itwasatinyturnout-thoughtheAnti-MaidanmovementdebutedinFebruarywith
amarchofabout35,000supportersthroughdowntownMoscow-andtheentiregroup
foldedtheirbannersandhurriedawayafterabout15minutes.

"It'sdifficulttoorganizepeople,sothattheygettogether"Mr.Starikovlaments."Public
opinionischangeable."

Infact,theKremlindirectlysponsoredseveralyouthmovementstoopposeanydomestic
pro-democracyrevoltfollowingthe2004"OrangeRevolution"inUkraine,includingNashi
andtheYoungGuard,butdespitetheinfusionofconsiderableofficialresources,those
attemptspeteredoutafterafewyearsleavinglittletracebehind.

AmassiveRedSquarerallyinMarchtocommemoratetheannexationofCrimea,ledby
Putinpersonallyandthemed"WeAreTogether!",wasslightlymarredbysocialmedia
postingsshowinghundredsofparticipants,mainlyyoungpeople,lininguplatertoreceive
theirpayouts.

'Atimeofgreatopportunity'?

"Ofthetwopillarsofthecurrentnationalistconsensus,oneistransient.Thatisthe
extremelybroadsupportforPutin,butPutinwillnotbeforever,right?"saysMs.Lipman.
"Theotheristoonegative.Anti-Westernsentimentmaybedeepandgenuine,butbeing
anti-Westerndoesnothingtohelpshapeasenseofwhoweare."

Melikhov,thebusinessman,hasatentativeanswertothat.

"Weshouldusethissituation,andallthisenergy,"hesays."I'veneverseenatimewhen
peoplefeltsoconsolidatedandreadytobeconstructive.Forme,patriotismmeanstogo
outandbuildsomething,improvemybusiness,helpotherstostartsomething.Thiscould
beatimeofgreatopportunityforourcountry,andourselves."

[returntoContents]

#15
http://warontherocks.com
December23,2015
TheSevenDeadlySinsofRussiaAnalysis
ByMichaelKofman
MichaelKofmanisanAnalystattheCNACorporationandaFellowattheWilsonCenter's
KennanInstitute.PreviouslyheservedasProgramManageratNationalDefenseUniversity.
Theviewsexpressedherearehisown.

Astheclockcountsdowntotheendofanothertumultuousanddifficultyearofdealingwith
Russia,thenaturalinstinctistolookbackonthebattlesandsurprisesof2015withaneye
tomakingpredictionsforthecomingyear.Thereismaterialaplenty:thebattleof
Debaltseve,Moscow'soperationsinSyria,acrisiswithTurkeythatstillburnsbright.Anew
yearoffersnewopportunitiesforprognostication:WherewillRussiastrikenext?Whatis
Putinthinking?Whatarethelikelyflashpointsof2016?Insteadofthistraditionalexercise,
Russiaexpertsshouldreflectonayearofdiscussions,briefings,roundtables,merciless
PowerPointdecksabouthybridwar,andoccasionalspatsinthevirtualpagesofoutletslike
WarontheRocks.Whatarethenaggingquestions,questionableassumptions,and
unknownsthatbesettheanalyticalandpolicymakingcommunity?

ExpertsandpolicymakerswhodealwithRussiaarelivinginahigh-tempoenvironment,
keepingpacewithmilitaryinterventions,crises,andthefrequenttwistsinbilateralrelations.
However,inanysuchendeavor,itispossibletolearnlessonsthatarenottrue.Thisismy
ownattemptatpresentingalistofquestionablebitsofanalysisandassumptionsthatexist
withinthecommunity.Indoingso,Ihopetopushpeopletocriticallyexaminehowtheylook
atRussia.Whydowesaysomeofthesethings,andmoreimportantlywhydowethink
them?

1.TheRussianGovernmentisBrittle.Orisit?

PresentingVladimirPutin'sregimeasbrittleisoftenanalyticalshorthandforarguingthathis
regimeisdangerousinthenearterm,butequallylikelytoimplodeinshortorder,with
Russiadescendingintoturmoilandinstability.Indeed,Moscowhasaccumulatedsomany
domesticandforeignpolicyproblemsthatitwouldmakethisalogicalassessmentwereit
notforthepoortrackrecordofsuchpredictions.Witheachnewoutbreakinwhathas
becomeanalmostroutineseriesofpolitical,economic,orforeignpolicycrises,asegment
oftheRussia-watchercommunityinvariablybeginstomakepredictionsofPutin'simminent
demise.Unfortunately,thescienceofpredictingregimechangeseemstolagsignificantly
behindastrology.WeshouldrememberthatfewpredictedtheSovietUnion'srapiddemise,
thestartoftheArabSpring,oranticipatedtherapidfallofVictorYanukovichinUkraine
followingthestartoftheMaidan.

Therearetwoongoingcasestudiesonthemeritofsuchpredictions.ThefirstisPakistan,a
countrythatbythesametheoryshouldhavecollapsedlongagoundertheweightofits
manyproblems.ThesecondisNorthKorea,whichsoldiersondespitedecadesof
predictionsandestimatesoftheregime'simminentimplosion.AsformerSecretaryof
DefenseRobertGatesremarkedonourabilitytopredictthenatureandlocationofthenext
conflict,"ourrecordhasbeenperfect"giventhat"we'veneveroncegottenitright."The
sameshouldbesaidofourabilitytojudgeregimebrittleness.Thepointisnotthatneo-
Kremlinologyorassessmentsofpoliticalstabilityareawasteoftime,butthatthisisa
singlelayerofanalysisthatshouldbetakenwithahealthydoseofskepticism.

UndoubtedlythosewhoregularlypredictPutin'sdownfallwillonedaybevindicated,butfor
planningandanalyticalpurposes,ourexpectationsshouldbetempered.Thenexttestof
politicalbrittlenesscomesin2018whenwewillseehowreadyandwillingtheRussian
publicistoacceptPutin'sautomaticre-election.Nobodyknowswhatthestateofthe
economy,currencyvaluation,foreignexchangereserves,oilprices,orinternationalposition
ofRussiawillbethatyear.

2.TheUnitedStateshasaPutinProblem,notaRussiaProblem.OrDoesit?

Theindividualsinpowermatter,andanotherRussianleadermaynothavechosentoannex
CrimeaorinvadeUkraineinresponsetotheMaidan'svictory.Thatbeingsaid,thelingering
debateonwhethertheUnitedStateshasaPutinproblemoraRussiaproblemisan
unsettledone.IfoneassumesthattherealproblemisPutin'sregime,howeverlongitmight
last,thenthenaturalcourseofactionistoavoidanybargainswithRussia,cauterizethe
damagetothebilateralrelationshipandwaitforanotherleader.Mypersonalviewisthat
whoeversucceedsVladimirPutinwillnotprovetobeallthatdifferent,andwilllikelyfollowa
similarpolicypath.
RussianhistorysuggeststhatPutinisanythingbutanaberrationinleadership,pursuing
securitydilemmasinthesamemannerofmanypreviousoccupantsoftheKremlin.Seeing
Russia'ssecurityspaceasazero-sumgameandsecuringitbylimitingthesovereigntyof
itsneighborsisalmostcanonforRussianforeignpolicy(asitwasforSovietpolicy).We
shouldaskifPutin'sforeignpolicyisfundamentallysodifferentfromthatofBorisYeltsin,
Russia'sfirstdemocraticleader,orifRussiawassimplytooweakduringYeltsin'sruleto
challengethepost-ColdWarsecurityarrangementsinEurope.Inearly2014,Henry
KissingerwarnedWashingtonnottofixateonPutinwhenhewrotethat"FortheWest,the
demonizationofVladimirPutinisnotapolicy,itisanalibifortheabsenceofone."

YeltsintoobelievedintheapplicationofforcetoachievedesiredpoliticalendsinRussiaand
onitsperiphery.ExamplesarefoundamongRussianinterventionsinTransnistriaand
Tajikistanin1992andAbkhaziain1993,theuseoftankstosuppressaconstitutionalcrisis
inMoscow,theFirstChechenWarin1994-96,andtheRussianparatrooperdeploymentto
seizePristinaInternationalAirportin1999aheadofNATO'sdeploymentinKosovo.In
retrospect,thatadministrationwasnotshortonmilitarygambits,complaintsaboutNATO
expansion,orgripeswithU.S.militaryinterventions.ThecharacterofYeltsin'sgovernment
wasquitedifferentfromPutin'sregime,butarguablyitwasunderhisleadershipinthe
1990sthatRussiabeganandendeditsbriefflirtationwithdemocracy.Intruth,wehave
Yeltsin'spresidencytothankforPutin.

Putin'sviewoftheworldmayhaveevolvedduringhisrule,butthereislittleevidencethat
weshouldexpecthissuccessortotraveladifferentpath.Thusfar,thereisnothingto
suggestthatthenextRussianleader,whenfacedwithasimilarinternationalandregional
environmentwillnotattempttoengagetheWest,leavedisappointedandreverttothe
ruthlesspursuitofRussiannationalinterest.Anotherquestionseldomraisediswhether
U.S.policytowardsRussiawouldtrulychangeifitstroublesomeleaderweretodisappear
tomorrow.

3.MoscowCannotKeepThisUp.OrCanit?

CurrentdiscourseonRussia'seconomicfrailtyfoldsintothebroaderdiscussionon
whetherornotMoscowcansustainthecurrentstateofconfrontation.Inotherwords,how
longcanMoscowkeepthisup?TheunderlyingquestioniswhetherRussiawillceasebeing
aprobleminthenear-tomid-termbysuccumbingtoitseconomicwoes.Thenarrativethat
RussiawillrunoutofmoneyisprevalentintheWest,eventhoughMoscow'sforeign
reserveshavebothstabilizedandshownamodestreboundinrecentmonths.Thebigger
questioniswhydowetalkaboutRussiaasthoughitwasabankoracompany?Did
Russiagooutofbusinessafterthe1998default?

WhatistheactualconnectionbetweenWesternsecurityconsiderationsvis-a-visRussia,
itsforeignandnationalsecuritypolicy,andtheamountofmoneyithasonhand?Putin
announcedambitiousmilitaryreformsin2009,whenthepriceofoilfellto$35perbarrel.
RussiainvadedUkraineandannexedCrimeain2014eventhoughtheRussianeconomy
wasclearlyenteringarecessioninlate2013.Lookingfurtherback,Russianspersevered
throughthefinancialdefaultandcurrencycrisisof1998,manygoingthebetterpartofa
yearwithoutsalaries.PutinwasanointedasYeltsin'ssuccessorfollowingthiseconomic
carnage,andintheaftermathlaunchedtheSecondChechenWarin1999,aprolonged
conventionalandcounterinsurgencycampaign.

Thisdiscussionbegsamoreessentialquestionastowhetherornottheeconomyhasever
beenafoundationofRussianpowerintheinternationalsystem.InapreviousarticleforWar
ontheRocks,IarguedthatRussiahasoftenappearedtobethesickmanofEurope,
technologicallybackwards,withalacklustereconomy,andapoliticalsystemthat
consistentlylagsbehindtheneedsofitssociety.Thatbeingsaid,despiteWesternfearsto
thecontrary,theSovietUnionwasneverasuperpowerbyvirtueofbeingaserious
economiccompetitortotheUnitedStates,letalonetheWest,atbestattaining57percentof
America'sGNPinthelate1960sbeforefallingbehind.

Today,plentyofseniorU.S.officialsconsiderRussiatobeastrategicthreatandaserious
opponenttoNATOeventhoughitsGDPisbarelyatenthofAmerica's.Inarecentinterview
discussingRussia,DeputyDefenseSecretaryRobertWorkappliedMearsheimer's
definitionofagreatpowertoMoscow,highlightingthereturnofgreatpowerpoliticsinthe
internationalsystem.Granted,hesaidthiswasanarrowlens,butiftheUnitedStates
considersRussiatobeagreatpower(orregionalpowerwithabignucleararsenal)when
itseconomyrepresentsamere3.3percentofglobalGDP,thentheconnectionbetween
economicfundamentalsofpowerandRussia'spositionintheinternationalsystemmerits
furtherdiscussion.

4.RussiaCannotSustainMilitaryOperations.OrCanit?

FollowingcloselythediscussionofeconomicweaknessisageneralsentimentthatRussia
isunabletosustainmilitaryoperationsduetofinancialorforceconstraints.Goingbackto
early2015,thenotionthatRussia'sarmedforcesaretieddownor"stuck"inUkraineseems
tohavedissipated.Themeritofsuchestimateswascastintodoubtwhen,inSeptemberof
thisyear,RussiawassimultaneouslysustainingitsdeploymentinUkraine,conductingthe
expensivestrategicexerciseCenter2015,anddeployinganexpeditionaryoperationto
Syria.Itoowaswronginarguingthatlogisticalandfinancialconstraintswouldlimit
Moscow'sinvolvementinSyriagivenitslackofassetstosustainexpeditionaryoperations.

Muchtomyownsurprise,RussiasurgedsealiftbyreflaggingTurkishcommercialshipsto
supportitsincreasingtrooppresenceandbaseexpansions.ForMoscow,necessityisthe
motherofinvention,whereasfortheUnitedStatesitisusuallythemotherofprocurement.
Russiaalsofoundplentyoffundingtotestexpensivelandattackcruisemissilesofalmost
everyvariety.Inarecentpressconference,Putinshowednosignsthateconomic
constraintswouldimpactmilitaryoperations.Instead,itseemsRussiacansustainthisand
allotherlinesofeffortforatleastafewyears.At4.2percentofGDP,or3.3trillionrubles,
Russia'sdefensebudgetisthehighestithasbeensincethecollapseoftheSovietUnion.

Toooftenwetradeinouranalyticalexpertiseforanaccountant'sglasses,asthoughwe
couldcounttheRussianMinistryofDefense'smoneyoritsavailabletroopsbetterthanit
can.Ontheissueofsustainmentofmilitaryoperationsweneedadoseofanalytical
humility.

5.RussiaisStillaPowerinDecline.Orisit?

IfundamentallybelievethatRussiaisapowerinstructuraldecline,butincreasinglyI
wonderabouttherelevanceofthatassessment.Itseemswitheachyearwecaninferless
andlessfromsuchastatement.CelesteWallanderandEugeneRumer,twolongtime
RussiaexpertswhomIholdinthehighestregard,oncewrote:

"Despiteseveralyearsofeconomicgrowthandanewdynamicleader,Russiaremainsa
powerindecline.Neitheritsrecenteconomicsuccessnoritsvigorousleadershipis
sufficienttomakeupforthelong-termlossesthecountryhassufferedortocompensatefor
thecontemporaryshortcomingsthatbeliekeyelementsofRussianpower."

TheonlyproblemwiththisremarkablepieceinTheWashingtonQuarterlyisthatitwas
publishedinlate2003.Roughlyadecadelater,PresidentObamasimilarlyopinedthat
Russiaisa"regionalpower"actingoutof"weakness."ManyofRussia'sunderlying
weaknesseswereastruethenastheyarenow,butifRussiaisdeclining,itisdoingsovery
slowly,anditsleadershipdoesnotacceptsuchapredestinedfate.Asimprobableasitmay
be,absentasuddenRussiancollapse,atsomepointwemaybeforcedtoadmitthat
Russiaisdecliningsoslowlythecountrymightjustbemuddlingthrough.

6.DemographyWillDetermineRussia'sFate.OrWillit?

Russia'sdemographicproblemsarecommonlyreferencedasoneofthedriversofits
supposedlyassuredstructuraldecline.Analystsoftenmentiondemographytoeitherblithely
supportthenotionthatRussiawillsimplyceasetobeaproblemfortheWestinthelong
term,orworriedlyspeculatethatthecountrywillbecomedangerouslyunstable.Butwhat
mightRussia'sdemographicstrulydetermine?WillRussiasomehowbelessofastrategic
threatoraconcernfortheUnitedStatesifithasasmallerpopulation?Itisalmostcertain
thatRussiawillhaveenoughmanpowertomaintain1,550strategicnuclearweapons,along
withaconventionalforcetoovermatchanyofitsneighbors,saveChina.Perhaps
counterintuitively,intheshortterm,Russia'sarmedforceshavesteadilyincreasedinsize
fromroughly667,000-700,000in2012to900,000today.

Whenconsideringlong-termalternativefuturesitisworthnotingthatRussia'seconomy
andnationalbudgetisinexorablydependentonenergyandresourceextraction.Theseare
industriesthatarenotlabor-intensive.Atthesametime,Russiaisthebeneficiaryofalarge
laborinfluxfromformerSovietRepublics,oftenmakingitthethird-orsecond-highest
recipientofmigrantsintheworld.CanRussianationalizesuchlaboratthecostofinternal
socialcohesion?Howmuchwillitsgovernmentbudgettrulysufferfollowingalaborforce
contraction?Isitevenfairtoassumethatwarfareorsimilarstatetaskswillremain
manpower-intensive30yearsfromnow?AreRussia'sdemographicproblems
fundamentallydifferentfromthoseofotherdevelopedstates,includingmanyU.S.allies?It
strikesmethatRussia'sdemographicdeclineismoreofanopen-endedquestionthana
definitivestatementonthefutureofthecountry.

7.ForPutin,It'sAllAboutRegimeSurvival.Orisit?

Moscow'sannexationofCrimea,invasionofUkraine,andlaunchofoperationsinSyriaare
sometimesexplainedasthethroesofafallingpoliticalsystemengagedina"survival
project."Theunderlyingtheoryunifyingtheseactionsisregimesurvival,brilliantlyadvocated
byLiliaShevtsovainanumberofarticlesandop-eds.Theproblemwiththisapproachis
thatregimesurvivalcircularlyexplainseverythingandabsolutelynothingatthesametime:
Thereisnopoliticalregimeonearththatisnotinterestedinitssurvival.Regimesurvivalisa
constantmotivationformany,ifnotall,politicalsystemsandpoliticians.Itissofungiblean
analyticalapproachthatitlendsitselfusefultoexplaininganyandallpolicychoicesby
Putin.

Atitscore,thisargumentarbitrarilytakesthedomesticpoliticaloutcomesofMoscow's
actions,suchashighapprovalratingsathome,oraresurgentsenseofnationalism,and
movesthembackintimetobecometheprimaryobjectivesofforeignandnationalsecurity
policy.Thatcouldbetrue,butitseemsimpossibletoproveordisprove.Regimesurvival
maynotbeanincorrectexplanationofMoscow'smotives,butitiscertainlyincompleteas
ananalysisoftherealsourcesofRussiandecision-making.

RussiaAnalysisinPerspective

InmyownnarrowlaneofRussianmilitaryanalysis,thereisalwaysroomforamore
balanced,informed,andnuancedunderstandingofRussia.Perhapsthegreatestwoeof
discussionsonRussianmilitary,strategy,anddecision-making(otherthandebateson
hybridwarfare)istheconstantseesawbetweentwoextremes.Toooften,weareengaged
inanasininedebateastowhetherRussia'smilitaryisfivefeettallor12feettall.
Assessmentstendtotrackmorecloselywithwhereonesitsinthepolicymakingornational
securityestablishment,versuswheretheRussianmilitaryactuallyis,andwhatitcando.
HereIbelievethestartingpointshouldalwaysbeBismarck'sobservationthat"Russiais
neverasstrongasshelooksnorasweakasshelooks."Whenitcomestodecision-
makinganalysis,Putinisregularlycastinstarktermsaseitherabrilliantstrategist,
outfoxingtheWestateveryturn,orcompletelyincompetentwithoutanynotionofwhathe
willdonext.

PerchancethebroadestandmostvexingquestionforU.S.decision-makersandexperts
todayisthis:HowdowedeterRussia?Itisasvagueasitisrecurrent.Theshortansweris
thattheUnitedStatesdoesdeterRussia,whichiswhywe'reallstillhere70yearsafter
nuclearweaponswerefirstused.Amoreanalyticallyinteresting-andpoliticallyvaluable-
questionwouldbehowtheUnitedStatesshouldmanagegreat-powercompetitioninthe
internationalsystemandkeepconfrontationwithRussiafromescalatingintowar.Ifcrises
areinevitableamongthemajorplayers,anditseemstheyare,thenmanagingescalation
dynamicsisparamount.Whenfacedwithaproblem,bureaucracieshaveapredilectionfor
pursuingactivityandconfusingitforachievement,toparaphraseFareedZakaria.Tobetter
structureapolicyorastrategytowardsRussiaweshouldconfrontourownunderlying
assumptionsandthemeritsofprevailingnarratives,andmorerigorouslyseektofillexisting
gapsinanalysis.

[returntoContents]

#16
TheNationalInterest
December14,2015
Putin'sPopularity,Explained
ByMatthewDalSanto
MatthewDalSantoisaDanishResearchCouncilpost-doctoralfellowattheSaxoInstitute,
UniversityofCopenhagen,whereheisleadingaprojectonhistoryandidentityinmodern
Russia.ThisarticlewasoriginallypublishedontheInterpreter.
Ifnothingelse,VladimirPutinisagreatpoliticalsurvivor.Whenprotestsbrokeoutin
Moscowfouryearsagoagainsthisreturntothepresidency,manyintheWestwrotehimoff
(awidelycitedworkproposedtotellHowRussiaFellinandOutofLovewithVladimir
Putin).However,onDecember3Putindeliveredyetanotherannual'StateoftheNation'
addressasPresidentofRussia.Rarelyhashebeensopopular.

Eventoday,Westerncommentatorsoftengivetheimpressionthatthey've'seenthefuture
andthefutureisnotPutin.'ButsurveysbyRussia'sindependentLevadaCentreprovide
littleevidenceofabrewingpeople'srebellion.Onthecontrary,theKremlinisoneofonly
threeinstitutionsthatmoreRussianstrustthandistrust(thearmyisat64percent,andthe
Churchandotherreligiousorganizationsareat53percent).Fully80percentof
respondentssaidthey'completelytrust'Putin.
Howshouldthisbeunderstood?

MainstreamWesternmediausuallycastPutin'spopularityastheresultofRussians'heavy
relianceongovernment-controlledtelevision,i.e.'brain-washing.'Butsuchaone-sidedview
maymisrepresenttherelationshipbetweenpowerandpublicopinion.Tellingly,only34
percentofRussianssaytheytrustthemedia.

The'brain-washing'theoryalsomisseswhatispossiblythemostsignificantfeatureof
modernRussia:forthefirsttimesincethe1991collapseoftheSovietUnion(ifnotthe1917
revolution)governmentpoliciesreflecttheattitudesandopinionsoftheconservative
majorityofRussiansratherthanaWesternizing,neo-liberal(orMarxist)elite.

Since1996,theLevadaCentrehasbeenaskingRussianswhattheywantoftheir
presidents.Theirexpectationshavechangedlittle.In2012(thatis,evenbeforetheoutbreak
oftheUkrainecrisis),Russians'topfourprioritieswere:restoringRussia'sgreat-power
status(57percentversus54percentin1996)lawandorder(52percentversus58
percent)afairerdistributionofthenationalwealth(49percentversus37percent)and
increasingthestate'sroleintheeconomy(37percent,unchanged).

SuchattitudesreflectcontinuingnostalgiaforelementsoftheSovietsystemand
dissatisfactionwiththeWesternizingpathfollowedaftertheUSSR'scollapse.In2012,only
aminority(16percent,upfrom13percentin1996)believedRussiashouldcontinueto
pursuetheliberalreformsoftheYeltsineraandevenfewer(5percentdownfrom6percent)
thoughtconvergencewiththeWestsomethingtobedesired.

Today,however,70percentofRussianssaythey'reproudoftheircountry,whereasless
thanhalfdidsoadecadeago.Significantly,since2014,68percentofRussiansbelieve
theircountrytohaveregainedgreatpowerstatus.

Overwhelmingsupportfor'buyingRussian'-aboveall,whenitcomestogroceries(91
percent)-confirmsconsensusaroundimportsubstitution(aself-imposedresponseto
Westernsanctions)asalongoverduehelpinghandtoRussianindustryand,especially,
farms.

Ofcourse,thiscoincidenceofgovernmentpoliciesandpublicopiniondoesn'tmakeRussia
ademocracy.Butsuchpollsfrequentlyfunctionasdemocracy'sproxyintheWest,sowhy
notinRussia?

Themainpointis,however,thatRussia's'conservativeturn'sincePutin'sreturntothe
KremlininMarch2012-widelydeploredintheWestasacreepingauthoritarianismwith
rootsonlyinthewilesofPutin'smind-maybeclosertotheworldviewofRussia's
conservativeandpatrioticmajoritythanmostWesterngovernmentswouldcaretoadmit.

Inforeignandeconomicpolicy,Russia'spost-Sovietgovernmentmayneverhavecleaved
asclosetotheviewsofthemajorityasitdoesnow.That'stheviewofIgorOkunev,avice-
deanattheMoscowStateInstituteofInternationalRelations,whomIspokewithrecentlyin
Moscow.

"Historically,theRussiangovernmenthasalwaysbeenmoreliberalthantheRussian
population.UnlikeGorbachevandYeltsin,whatIthinkPutinhasdecidedtodoisacceptthis
anduseitasthebasisforhissupport.That'sbeenhisstrategysincetheprotestsof2011.
Thatwaswhenhedecidedtoabandontheliberalminorityandembracetheconservative
majority."
MikhailRemizov,directorofRussia'sInstituteofNationalStrategy,sharesthisview,saying
inarecentinterview:"Russiandemocracymustbydefinitionbeconservative,populist,
nationalistandprotectionist."Until2012,hesaid,theconservatives"whoreallyenjoythe
sympathiesofthemajorityofthenationoccupiedtheplaceofanopposition.Realpower
remainedinthehandsoftheneo-liberalelitethathadrunthecountrysincethe1990."

Thishasnowchanged."Putinisfalselypresentedasanationalist,"saidRemizov."Ina
Russiancontext,he'sasovereigntist.Butingeneral,theagendaoftheKremlintodayis
formedbytheoppositionofthe2000s:theconservative,patrioticmajority."

YetWesterngovernmentsoftentreatRussia'sminorityliberaloppositionastheavant-garde
ofahiddenliberalmajority.ToDmitriTrenin,directoroftheCarnegieMoscowCentre,
however,thisisbettingonthewronghorse."Thisisn'tjustaboutPutin,"hetoldagroupI
waswithinMoscow."It'saboutthenatureofsocietyasawhole.Putinhasbeenabletorule
thiscountryinanauthoritarianwaywiththeconsentofthegoverned."Theimaginedliberal
majoritylookingtotheWestforemancipationdoesn'texist.Russianliberals,hesaid,"have
thesameproblemtherevolutionarieshavealwayshadinRussia:theylookdownonthe
restofthecountryasdupes."

ButTreninisjustaspessimisticabouttheabilityofRussia'spresentrulerstoaddressthe
country'sunderlyingproblems."Wewillhavetoexpectsomesortofupheaval.Thedams
willhavetobebrokensomehow."

Forallhispopularity,then,hasPutinreturnedRussiatoitspre-revolutionaryimpasse?

Intsaristtimes,abourgeois,liberaleliteeagertoimitateWesternEuropesocially,politically
andeconomicallyclashedwiththeconservativeandcollectivistworldviewofanOrthodox
peasantry(andtheireducatedSlavophilepatrons,mostfamouslyDostoyevsky)unwillingto
seeRussiarenounceitsdistinctiveways.

Betweenthem,theImperialgovernmentarbitratedham-fistedlyuntil,in1917,theFirst
WorldWarsweptitaway,andadisciplinedbandofrevolutionariesseizedpowerinthe
nameofadifferentWesternideology,Marxism.

SomethinkrevolutionwillbeRussia'sfateagain.Others(notablyChathamHouseexpert
RichardSakwa)believeRussia'spathtodemocracyliesinmodifyingthesystemthatPutin
hascreated.Indeed,thecountry'sveryconsensusbehinditspresidentcouldmeanthatthe
nextstepinsucha'democraticevolution'iscloserthanwethink."Thiscouldbeanideal
momentforPutintoexperimentwithpoliticalcompetition,"saysRemizov,"precisely
becauseofthestrengthofhisposition."

Allthesame,Westerngovernmentsshouldn'thavetoomanyillusions.IfRussians'present
sentimentsareanythingtogoby,thecatch-22ofRussiandemocracy,whenitarrives,may
bethatitlooksratherlikePutin'sRussia.

[returntoContents]

#17
FinancialTimes
June1,2015
Europe'sproblemiswithRussia,notPutin
Moscowisnotarisingrevolutionaryforcebutoneseekingtorestorepower
ByThomasGraham
ThewriterisaformerseniordirectorforRussiaontheUSNationalSecurityCouncilstaff

ThewestactsasifithadaVladimirPutinproblem.InfactithasaRussiaproblem.The
RussianpresidentstandswithinalongtraditionofRussianthinking.Hisdeparturewouldfix
nothing.Anyplausiblesuccessorwouldpursueasimilarcourse,ifperhapswithalittleless
machismo.

TheRussiaproblemisnotnew.Itemerged200yearsago,attheendoftheNapoleonic
period,withtheopeningupofwhatwewouldtodaycallavaluesgap.Inthe19thcentury
RussiamaintainedanautocraticregimeasEuropemovedtowardsliberaldemocracy.

YetRussiaremainedagreatpower,essentialtoEuropeansecurity.HowtoprotectEurope
inthepresenceofapowerfulstatethatisalieninworldview?Thatwastheproblemthen,as
now.

EuropeanstatesseeksecurityinbalanceRussiaseeksitinstrategicdepth.Thatview
growsoutofitslocationonthevast,nearlyfeaturelessgreatEurasianplain,acrosswhich
armieshavemovedwithease.

Historically,Russiahaspusheditsbordersoutward,asfarawayaspossiblefromits
heartland.Itdidnotstopwhenitreacheddefensiblephysicalborders,butonlywhenitran
intopowerfulcountervailingstates.Wherethewestsawimperialism,Moscowsawthe
erectionofdefences.

Overtime,resistancefromtheGermanicpowersinthewest,GreatBritainandthentheUS
inthesouth,andChinaandJapanintheeast,cametodefineRussia'szoneofsecurityas
northcentralEurasia,theformerSovietspace.

ForMoscow,statestherefaceachoicenotbetweenindependenceandRussian
domination,butbetweendominationbyRussiaorarival.Thatstruggle,
Moscowbelieves,isplayingoutinUkraine.

Alsooutofsecurityconcerns,RussiahasopposedthedominationofEuropebyasingle
powerandremainsuncomfortablewithgreaterEuropeanunity.Thereasoniseasyto
grasp:RussiacanbetheequalofGreatBritain,France,orGermany,butitcanneverbethe
equalofaunitedEurope,whichinpopulation,wealth,andpowerwoulddwarfitastheUS
doestoday.DrivingwedgesbetweenEuropeanstates,andbetweenEuropeandtheUS,
mightforestalltheemergenceofaseriousthreat.

Russia'sfearsareamplifiedbyasenseofvulnerability.Itseconomyisstagnating,its
technologyisnolongercutting-edge,andoutsideforces-China,thewestandradicalIslam
-arechallengingitintheformerSovietspace.Thetemptationistoacttoughtocoverupthe
doubtsby,forexample,flauntingnuclearcapabilities.

Aftermorethan20yearsofhopethatRussiacouldbebroughtintothewest-led
internationalorder,there-emergenceoftheRussiaproblemhasshockedthewest.Butthe
threatislimited.Thisisnotarisingrevolutionaryforcebutadecliningstateseekingto
restoreitspower.

Itcanbemanaged.OnewayistorevitalisetheEuropeanproject.Thatmeansdealing
vigorouslywiththeissuesfuellinganti-EUforces-thedemocraticdeficit,immigrationand
inequality.

Tobesure,stepssuchasaNatopresenceintheBalticsandrobustplanningforhybrid-war
contingenciesarenecessary,butthewestneedstoavoidover-militarisingitsresponseto
whatislargelyapoliticalchallenge.

Atthesametime,moreshouldbedonetohelpUkrainerepairitseconomyandbuilda
competentstateasabarriertoRussia'sassaultonEuropeannormsandunity.

Yetcontainmentwillnotworkinourglobalised,increasinglymultipolarworld,asitdidduring
thecoldwar.Thewestcannotcontainoneoftheworld'slargesteconomies,anditis
geopoliticalmalfeasancetoweakenundulyapowercriticaltotheequilibriumwehopeto
createoutoftoday'sturbulence,particularlyinAsia.

ThehardtruthisthatUkrainecannotberebuiltwithoutRussia.Itissimplytoorelianton
Russiaeconomically,andRussiahastoomanyleversofinfluenceinsideUkraine,foritto
beotherwise.Containmenthastobeleavenedwithaccommodation.Findingtheright
balanceisthechallenge.

[returntoContents]

#18
TheIndependent(UK)
May4,2015
Onceagain,theWestfailstounderstandRussia
Westernleadersarestayingawayfromthisyear'sVictoryDay,whichmournsthelossof
20millionRussianswhodiedtodefeatNaziGermany
ByMaryDejevsky
Oneofthecountry'smostrespectedcommentatorsonRussia,theEUandtheUS,Mary
Dejevskyhasworkedasaforeigncorrespondentallovertheworld,includingWashington,
ParisandMoscow.SheisnowthechiefeditorialwriterandacolumnistatTheIndependent
andregularlyappearsonradioandtelevision.SheisanHonoraryResearchFellowatthe
UniversityofBuckingham.

WhyareWesterncountriesbyandlargesoindulgentoftheanniversariesthatcontributeto
theirownnationhood,andsoinsensitivetowardsthoseofothers?
OnSaturday,PresidentVladimirPutinwilltakethesaluteatagrandmilitaryparadein
Moscow'sRedSquare.VictoryDay-9MayiswhenRussiacommemoratesitspartinthe
AlliedvictoryoverNaziGermany-isatoncethemostsolemnandovertlypatriotic
occasion.ItisoneofthefewpublicholidaystohavemadethetransitionfromtheSovietto
thepost-Sovietcalendarintact.

VictoryDaywasahighlightoftheyearIspentasanexchangestudentinVoronezh-acity
rarelymentionedwithouttheaccompanyingphrase"thelastfrontbeforeStalingrad".
Preparationstookweeks:placardswerepaintedbuntingandflagsadornedthestreets.It
wasahugehonourtobeartheuniversitystandard.Foodstocksintheshopsmiraculously
improved.

ReportingfromMoscowoveradecadelater,IrecallthebarrierspileduparoundRed
Square,theovernightarrivalofthetanksand,aboveall,thesuffocatingstenchoftheirfuel,
astheironmonsterswaitedtojointhetriumphalformation.TheVictoryDayparadewas
somethingtoclingto,evenastheSovietUnionnearedcollapse.

Thisyear'scommemorationwillbesecondtonone.Asthe70th,itisaround-number
anniversary.AswiththeplethoraofSecondWorldWaranniversariesbeingcommemorated
thisyear,thisisprobablythelasttimethattherewillbeanythinglikeaquorumofthosewho
actuallyparticipatedinorwitnessedtheseeventsabletoattend.

Then,ofcourse,thereisthetrickier,mostcontemporaryandspecificallyRussian,aspect.
ThisyearisanopportunityfortheKremlintodemonstratethatRussia,asagreatpower,is
back.TheadvanceofthedecadentWesthasbeenhaltedinUkraineandthesacred
territoryofCrimeahasbeenreturnedtothemotherland.

AllthisiswhyWesternleaders-whowenttoMoscowenmasseforVictoryDay's60th
anniversary-arestayingaway.TheydonotwishtoassociatewithPutin-certainlynotwhile
Ukraine'sveryexistenceasasovereignstateisunderthreat.Theyespeciallydonotwantto
appearataRussianmilitaryoccasion,whichcouldbeseenassignallingacceptanceofthe
eventsofthepast18months.

StrictlyspeakingthereisnoWesternboycott,andtherearedegreesofabsence.The
CzechpresidentwillgotoMoscow,butnotattendtheparade.AngelaMerkelwillarrivea
daylaterandlayawreath-anactthatmightanywayseemmoreappropriateforaGerman
Chancelloratawartimeanniversary.AsfortheUK,whoknowswhotheprimeministerwill
bebySaturday?Decliningtheinvitationwasexcusable,regardlessofUkraine.

Somemayseetheattendancelist,headedbytheChineseandIndianleaders-butnotby
NorthKorea'sKimJong-un,whohasjustcriedoff-followedbytheautocratsofCentral
Asia,asevidenceofwhereRussia'sforeignpolicyisnowheading.Maybe.Butthe
Kremlin'sresponsetotheWesternstay-awaysuggestsotherwise.Ithasbeenpeevish,but
alsoshotthroughwithincomprehension.ForRussians,whatishappeninginUkraineand
Russia'spartinthevictoryof1945arequalitativelyandquantitativelyquitedifferentthings.

Each9May,RussiadoesnotjustcelebratevictoryoverNaziGermanyitmournstheloss
ofmorethan20millionwardead,anditreconsecratestheideaofRussiansufferingtosave
Europe.InconversationwithRussiansinrecentweeks,Ihavehadtofieldastreamof
injuredquestionsalongthelinesof"hastheWesteverunderstoodRussia'ssacrifice?"
and:"WilltheWesteverappreciateit?"ThenotionthatUkraineisarealstumblingblock
hereisbeyondcomprehensionthestay-awayisratherseenasfurtherproofthatRussia
willnever,ever,beconsidered"oneofus".

Countrieskeepmemoriesalive,oftenunrealisticallyflatteringones,formanyreasons.Last
June,inarecognitionofthewartimealliance,Putinwascontroversiallyinvitedtojointhe
AlliedcommemorationoftheNormandylandings,atatimewhenRussia'sseizureof
Crimeawasevenfresherinthememorythanitisnow.Butthisofferedanopportunityfor
WesternleadersandforPutintospeaktheirminds,whilepreservingdignityoneitherside.
OneresultwasthefirstformalmeetingbetweenPutinandUkraine'snewlyelected
president-withoutwhichUkraine'ssituationmightbeevenworsethanitistoday.

TojoinPutinonthepodiumforSaturday'sparadewouldnotbepoliticbuttodineinthe
Kremlinortakepartinawreath-layingwouldsurelynotbeoutofplace.MostWesterners
mightnotfearanyresurgenceoffascisminUkraine,butdiscussionwithPutinandothers-
whosefathersfoughtonthatfrontandothers-couldaffordanunderstandingofwhymany
Russiansmight.Inrecentyears,theWesthasmissedoneopportunityafteranotherto
understandhowRussia'spastinfluencesitspresent.Andhereisanothergone.

[returntoContents]

#19
RussiaInsider
www.russia-insider.com
November2,2015
TwoCenturiesofRussianSurprises--WhyAreWeSurprised?
UnderestimatingRussiawillsurpriseyou
ByShellback
ShellbackisthepseudonymofsomeonewhostartedworkingforaNATOmilitarystructure
intheBrezhnevyears.

TheUSA/NATOhasbeensurprised-orisstunnedabetterword?-bytheRussian
operationinSyria.Thefactthatitintervenedthespeedwithwhichitdiditthesecrecywith
whichitdiditthenumbersofsortiesbeingflowntheaccuracyandeffectivenessofthe
strikes.ButespeciallybythediscoverythatinsignificantboatsintheCaspianSea-ofall
places-haveasurprisinglylongreach.McCain'sgasstationorObama'snegligibleRussia
couldn'tpossiblybeexpectedtodosuchthings.And,ifhalftherumorsaboutRussia's
"A2/ADbubble"aretrue,there'sanotherhugesurpriseaswell.

Russia,overitsmillenniumofhistory,hasbeenusuallysuccessfulinwar,andespeciallyso
whendefeatinginvaders.TheMongolswereeventuallyseenoff,theTeutonicKnightssent
home,thePolish-Lithuanianinvadersdrivenout,theSwedesdefeatedandNapoleonand
Hitlerwerefollowedhomebyavengingarmies.TheWestisonlyfaintlyawareofthisrecord:
ittendstorememberRussia'sraredefeatsliketheJapanesewarorWorldWarIand,when
Russia(ortheUSSR)wins,thecommonopinionintheWestisthatvictorywasreallyowed
tofactorslike"GeneralWinter"orendlessmanpower.Inshort,theWesternmemeisthat
doesn'treallywin,theothersideloses.

Thisis,toputitmildly,incorrect.DominicLieven'sbook"RussiaAgainstNapoleon"
destroysthememe.TheauthorestablishesthecasethattheEmperorAlexanderandhis
governmentforesawthatwarwithNapoleonwasinevitable,studiedhowNapoleonfought
andmadethenecessarypreparationstodefeathim.Anddefeathimtheydid.Fightingan
armyasbigastheonethatinvadedin1812ledbyasbrilliantacommanderasNapoleonis
nevergoingtobeeasyandAlexanderprobablydidn'tenvisageabattleasbloodyas
Borodino,soclosetoMoscow,tobeindecisive.I'msurenobodyplannedforMoscowtobe
occupiedandburned.But,evenso,Alexanderheldtohispurpose.HeknewthatNapoleon's
typicalcampaignwasaswiftbattlefieldvictory,followedbynegotiations,perhapsthelossof
afewbitsofterritory,arelativeortwobeingmadeintoaprince,andthenthegatheringof
thedefeatedpowerintotheFrenchcamp.Inshort,Napoleon'sexpectedheandAlexander
wouldmeetagainwhenAlexanderhadbeentaughtalesson:Russiawouldthenrejointhe
"continentalsystem"anditsnavywouldkeeptheRoyalNavyoutoftheBaltic.Something
limitedlikethat.ButAlexanderwasfightingadifferentwarandnevercametohim.Moscow
burnedandNapoleongaveupwaitingandwenthome.Certainly,"GeneralWinter"played
hispart,buttheFrenchretreatturnedintoaroutastheyweredrivenfasterandfasterbythe
menacingproximityoftherebuiltRussianArmy,harriedbywarmlydressedCossack
raiderswithendlessremountsandenragedpartisansrousedintothefirstGreatPatriotic
War.Thisfamousgraphtellsthestory:fourhundredthousandwentin,tenthousandcame
outandtheRussianarmyfollowedNapoleonallthewaybacktoParis.Lievenexplainsthe
planningandtheenormouslogisticsoperationwhichsustainedalargearmyallthe1500
milesfromMoscowtoParis.VeryfarindeedfromtheWesternstoryofmassesofmen
hurledatafreezingenemy.
Inshort:AlexanderunderstoodhowNapoleondidthingsandsurprisedhimwithproper
preparationandafullstrategy.This,Ibelieve,istheessenceofthe"Russianwayin
warfare".Knowandunderstandtheenemyandsurprisehim.Wehavejustseenthisagain
inSyria.And,forthatmatter,overandoveragainintheUkrainecrisiswherenothinghas
gonethewayNuland&Cointended.AndinOssetiain2008.

WhiletheFirstWorldWarwasadisasterforRussia,surpriseandintelligencewaspresent.
Germany'splantodealwithenemiesbotheastandwestassumedRussiawouldtakeso
longtomobilizethatthebulkoftheGermanArmycouldbesentwesttoknockFranceout-
asithaddonein1870-andreturnintimetomeettheRussians.TheRussians,who
perhapsknewthis,attackedearlyandthrewtheGermansintoconsternation.Theirattack,
however,wentwrong:theRussiancommanderswereincompetent,theGerman
commandersweren'tandtheGermansweresaved.Intelligenceandsurprisewerethere,
buttheexecutionwasbungled.Asecondintelligence/surprisewastheBrusilovOffensivein
1916(againsomethingnotmuchknownintheWest).Theattackwasnotablefortwo
innovationslateradoptedintheWesternfront:ashort,intense,accurateartillery
bombardmentimmediatelyfollowedupbyattacksofsmallspeciallytrainedshocktroops.
VerydifferentindeedfromthesynchronousSommeoffensiveonthewithitsprolonged
bombardmentandtheslowadvanceofthousandsofheavilyburdenedsoldiers.But,inthe
end,Russiawasoverwhelmedbythestrainsofthefirstindustrialwarandunderminedby
GermanandAustriansubterfugesandcollapsed.Intelligenceandsurpriseweren'tenough.

IntelligenceandsurprisereturnedintheSovietperiod.IntheFarEastwesawtheperfect
combinationofsurprisein1939withtheannihilationofaJapanesearmyatthebattleof
Khalkin-Golandintelligencein1941withRichardSorge'sdiscoverythatJapanwasturning
south.ThisintelligenceallowedStavkatotransferdivisions,thattheGermanshadnoidea
existed,toMoscowandsurprisethemwiththefirstSovietvictoryattheBattleofMoscow.
CertainlyHitlersurprisedStalinwithhisattack(althoughheshouldn'thavebecauseSoviet
intelligencepickedupmanywarningsigns)butthatappearstohavebeenthelastGerman
surpriseofthewar.FromthenonitwastheSovietswhoforesawGermanplansand
surprisedthemtimeandtimeagain-thecounterattackatStalingradandtheentireBattleof
KurskbeingtwoofthemostdramaticexamplesoftheSovietspreparingforwhattheir
intelligencetoldthemwascomingandachievingcompletesurprisewiththeircounter-
attack.Again,surpriseandintelligence,almostallofitontheSovietside.(Whichshould
makeonewonderwhatReinhardGehlen,headoftheGermanArmy'sSovietintelligence
sectionhadtoselltheAmericansin1945,shouldn'tit?)

Sothen,SyriaisjustthelatestexampleofsomethingthathasbeenpresentinRussianand
Sovietwar-fightingdoctrineforatleasttwocenturies.

Agoodpieceofadvice,then:ifyouarecontemplatingawar(evenanon-shootingwar)
againstRussiayou'dbetterassumethattheyhaveaprettygoodideaofwhatyouaredoing
butthatyouhaveverylittleideaofwhattheyaredoing.

It'smuchmorelikelythatyouwillbesurprisedthanyouwillsurprisethem.

LotsofpeopleinlotsofplacesoverlotsofyearshaveunderestimatedRussia.Mostof
themhaveregrettedit.

IsthereanythinginthelastcoupleofyearsintheWest'santi-Russiacampaignthatwould
causeanyonetothinkotherwise?

[returntoContents]

#20
Counterpunch.org
November13,2015
PerpetratorsHonoringTheirVictims,orAnIncomprehensibleLogicConcerningDonbas
"Terrorists"
ByHALYNAMOKRUSHYNA
HalynaMokrushynaiscurrentlyenrolledinthePhDprograminSociologyattheUniversityof
Ottawaandapart-timeprofessor.SheholdsadoctorateinlinguisticsandMAdegreein
communication.Heracademicinterestsinclude:transitionaljusticecollectivememory
ethnicstudiesdissentmovementinUkrainehistoryofUkrainesociologicalthought.Her
doctoralprojectdealswiththememoryofStalinistpurgesinUkraine.Inthesummerof
2013shetravelledtoLviv,Kyiv,KharkivandDonetsktoconductherfieldresearch.Sheis
currentlyworkingoncompletingherthesis.Shecanbereachedathalouwins@gmail.com.

AmonumenttotheinsurgentsandcivilianswhodiedinthewarwiththeUkrainianarmyin
2014-15wassolemnlyopenedonNovember4,2015inDebaltsevo,asmallcityonthe
territoryoftheDonetskPeople'sRepublic.Theceremonywaspresidedbytheleadersof
theDPR,theheadoftheDebaltsevocityadministrationanddeputiestotheDPR
legislature.Manyhundredsoflocalcitizenstookpart.

AlexanderZakharchenko,theheadoftheDPR,gaveanaddresstotheceremonyinwhich
hestatedthattheDonetskPeople'sRepublicshouldhonourthosewhodefendedwitharms
theircityandtheirchildren.AsolemnliturgywasservedbytheprovostoftheAlexander
NevskiOrthodoxChurchofDebaltsevo.Hestated,"Wearegatheredhere,ontheDayof
OurLadyofKazan,foraprayertohonourourdeadwarriorswhosacrificedtheirlivesfor
ourland."

Theplaqueonthemonumentreads:"Eternalmemorytothebrothersandsisterswhogave
theirlivesfortheliberationofDebaltsevofromUkrainianaggressors,2014-2015".Thenews
isreportedbytheDonetskNewsAgency(DAN).ItreferstoDebaltsevoasa"herocity"for
havingresistedan"occupation"byUkrainianaggressors,atitlereminiscentoftheSoviet
traditionofbestowingthetitleoncitiesthatbecamecentresofactivefightingagainstNazi
invadersduringWWII.

Thepro-UkraineinformationagencyOstroV,whichpublishesanalysisofeventsinDonetsk
andLuganskinRussianlanguage,publishedashortitemontheNovember4ceremony
whichwastakenfromDAN.OstroVcallsDANa"separatist"agency.TheitemonOstroV's
websitehasatellingtitle:"Theheightofcynicism!Ringleadersofthe"DPR"openedin
Debaltsevoamonumenttociviliansthattheythemselveskilledbrutally".Thentheagency
proceedstoexplainthatwhile"liberating"(itsownquotationmarks)Debaltsevofromthe
Ukrainianarmy,therebelsshelledthecitywithheavyweaponry,killingalargenumberof
civilians.

QuotingU.S.AmbassadortotheUnitedNationsSamanthaPower,theOstroVagency
explainsthatabout500corpsesofcivilianswerefoundinbasementsofDebaltsevo.The
victimsweresaidtobeseekingcoverfromtheshellingoftheir"liberators"(quotationmarks
bytheagency),thatisDPRforces.OstroVdoesnotsaywhenPowermadethisclaim,nor
onwhatoccasion.Italsoquotesherassayingthatcivilianswereriskingtheirlivesbyeither
hidinginbasementsorfleeingthecitybecauseroadswerealsoshelledbythe"terrorists"of
theDPR.OnewonderswhyOstroVdoesnotquoteUkrainiansourcesandinsteadrelieson
theUSrepresentativeforfindingoutwhatishappeninginUkraine.

TheshortOstroVshortarticlestatesthattheleaderswhospokeatthesolemnopeningof
theDebaltsevomonumentonNovember4"traditionallyshiftedtheresponsibilityfortheir
crimesontoUkraine".

"Themonument...islocatedinapublicpromenadeadjacenttotheoccupation'city
administration'ofDebaltsevo",informsOstroV.Again,quotesaroundthe"city
administration"andthequalification"occupation"clearlyshowtheagency'sinterpretationof
theDPRas"terrorists"whotookDebaltsevobyforceandholdnowallthecitizensas
hostages.NotonlydotheterroristsblametheUkrainianarmyfortheircrimes,they
purportedlyshelltheirownpositionsbecausetheydonotgiveadamnforthelivesof
civilians!Theseterroristsaresowickedandcynicalintheirperfiditythattheyevenerecta
monumenttotheirownvictims!

TheauthorsoftheOstroVwebsitereportdidnotbothertoexplainwhytheDPR
"ringleaders"wouldengageinsuchanactofcommemoration.Indeed,whydidtheystagea
commemoration?

Whenandwhereinhumanhistoryhaveperpetratorserectedmonumentstotheirvictims?
Thereareinnumerableinstancesofcommemorationofvictimsbytheirrelatives,social
groupsrepresentingthevictimizedstrataofthepopulation,orthestateclaimingto
representthem.ButIhaveneverheardofaninstancewhereanexecutionerwoulderecta
monumenttohisownvictims,goingsofarastocallthem"brothersandsisters"!Butthese
Russia-backedterroristsfromtheDPRaresoevilthattheircrueltyisinhumaneand
transcendsourcommonunderstandingofhumanmotivation.Orsoweareexpectedto
believe.
ThatistheonlyplausibleexplanationoftheDPRleaders'actfromtheOstroVpointofview.
Thepublicationdoesnotspellthisout,butitiseasilydiscerniblefromthewayinwhichit
presentedthenews.

TheaforementionedtitleoftheOstroVreportstrikesmeasyetanotherexampleofthe
dehumanizationofDonbasresidentsbytheUkrainiangovernmentandmuchofthe
country'smedia.Ianalyzedthisphenomenoninsomedetailinmypresentationatthe2015
annualconferenceoftheCanadianAssociationofSlavicStudiesandattheinaugural
conferenceinWinnipeginSeptember2015oftheGeopoliticalEconomyResearchGroup
(GERG)attheUniversityofManitobainWinnipeginSeptember2015.Youcanreadmy
presentationhereattheGERGconferencewebsite.

Pro-Western,"civilized"UkrainiansdenytheDPRinsurgentstheirhumanity.Itismade
crystalclearinUkrainianmediainterpretationswhoisthegoodandwhoisthebad.Pro-
WesternUkrainianswhoclaimtorespecthumanlifeandfreedomofopinioncannotaccept
anysuggestionthattheDPRleadersandthepopulationoftheDPRsincerelymourntheir
fellowcombatantsandcitizenswhodiedinthecivilwarinDonbas.Peopleonallsidesdied
fromtheshellingoftheUkrainianarmyand,yes,alsofromshellsfiredbyDPRforces.This
wasawarinwhichcasualtieswereunavoidable,tragicasthatwas.Butitisexceedingly
raretofindreportedinUkrainianmediathatthiscivilwarwasunleashedbyKyiv
governmentandbroughttotheDonbashomelandpreciselybecauseEuromaidanKyiv
couldnottoleratedissentingopinionthere.

OstroV'scoverageoftheopeningofamonumentinDebaltsevoisanexampleofsuch
blindnessandnon-respectoftheOther.ItcannotseethattheDPRisalegitimate
expressionofpoliticalself-determination,nota"terrorist"projectimposedonthepopulation
by"Russia-backedrebels".OstroVdoesnotmentionthatsome500peoplewerepresentat
theNovember4ceremonyinDebaltsevo,andthataftertheopeningofthenewmonument,
theprocessionthenwenttotheMemorialofEternalGloryconsecratedtothosewhodiedin
theGreatPatrioticWar.Onthatday,forthefirsttimeinmanyyears,theEternalFlamewas
relitthankstotheeffortsofthelocalauthorities.TheheadoftheDPR,Alexander
Zakharchenko,spokeandgavethankstotheveteransstillaliveandthosewhodiedfor
passingtothegenerationsthatfollowthemthespiritandstrengthwithwhichtheyfoughtin
theGreatPatrioticWar.

ThespeechbyZakharchenkoisbutoneofnumerousofficialproclamationsoftheDPR
whichtraceacontinuitybetweenthepresent-daycombatantsofDonbasandtheir
grandfathersandgreatgrandfatherswhodefeatedNaziGermanyintheGreatPatrioticWar.
AstheSovietarmyfought70yearsago,todaytheDPRarmyisfightingagainstUkrainian
extremenationalistswhowereNazialliesinthepastandwhonowwanttoinvadeDonbas
andtodestroyitshistoricmemory.Present-dayciviliansandinsurgentstowhosememory
themonumentinDebaltsevoisdedicateddiedforvictoryinthisfight.

Intoday'sMaidanUkraine,celebrationsoftheSovietvictoryinWWIIarefadingaway.Inthe
memorypoliticsofthenewEuromaidanUkraine,thenotionoftheGreatPatrioticWaris
increasinglycalledamyth.Andyet,this"myth"remainsafundamentalbuildingblockofthe
collectiveidentityofmillionsofUkrainiancitizens.TheheroismandpatriotismofSoviet
Ukrainiansoldiers,praisedinhistorymanualsandglorifiedinsong,isnowdissolvedintoan
interpretationofUkraineashavingbeencaughtbetweentwinevils-NaziGermanyandthe
Stalin-ledSovietUnion(readpresent-dayRussia).Newcommemorationritualshavebeing
createdinUkrainewhicharecopiedfromEuropeanhabitswithlittleornobearanceon
Ukrainianhistory.Thisyear,inadditiontomarkingMay9,traditionalVictoryDayinUkraine,
May8wasofficiallymarkedforthefirsttimeinUkraine'shistoryasadayofWW2memory
andreconciliation.

Idoubtverymuchthatthisnewcommemorationdatecanassistreconciliationforacountry
thatisdividednotonlybythememoryofthepastbutalsobydivergentvisionsofthefuture.
DonbasdoesnotwanttointegrateintoEurope,asmanyintherestofUkraineseemingly
want.Andforthatdissentingopinion,pro-EuropeanUkraineisdehumanizingDonbas.As
longastheUkrainianpoliticalandintellectualeliterefusetorecognizeDonetskandLugansk
residentsashumanbeingswithviewsandvaluesdifferentfromtheirownbutnoless
authentic,therewillbenopeaceinUkraine.

Notes:
(1)Debaltsevoisasmallcity,population25,000,intheeastoftheDonetskoblastof
Ukraine,neartheborderwiththeLuhanskoblast.Itisastrategicallyvitalroadandrailway
junction.ThecitybecamethelocationofveryheavyfightingbetweenUkrainianarmed
forcesandmilitiasandtheDPRinsurgencyinthesummerof2014.Ukrainesucceededin
capturingitforatime.InJanuaryof2015,afterUkrainehadrenewedamilitaryoffensive
againstDonetskandLugansk,itsforcesbecamevulnerableaftertheyhadoverextended
themselvesinandaroundDebaltsevo.AcounteroffensivebyDPRforcessucceededin
recapturingthecityonFebruary18,2015,destroyingtheoccupyingUkrainianforceswho
sufferedhundredsofcasualties.ThisfightbecameknownastheBattleofDebaltsevo.

(2).ItisstatedontheOstroVwebsitethatitisfundedbytheNationalEndowmentfor
Democracy,theMediaDevelopmentFundoftheUSEmbassytoUkraine,andthe
InternationalRenaissanceFoundation,whosefounderandsponsorisGeorgeSoros.Itis
partofthePolish-CanadianProgramofsupportfordemocracy,co-financedbythe
DepartmentofForeignAffairsofthePolishRepublicandtheDepartmentofForeignAffairs,
TradeandDevelopmentofCanada.

[returntoContents]

#21
FairObserver
www.fairobserver.com
December4,2015
IsEurope'sBufferZoneinUkraineKeepingitSafe?
BYOLENALENNONANDBRIANMILAKOVSKY
OlenaLennonisanadjunctprofessorofForeignPolicyandConflictResolutionatthe
UniversityofNewHaven.BrianMilakovskyworksonhumanitarianissuesineastern
Ukraine.HehasbeenlivingandworkinginRussiaandUkrainesince2009

UkrainemustprotectcivilianpopulationsintheDonbasregionandseekapoliticalsolution
totheconflict.

EuropeanandAmericanforeignpolicyeliteshavecometoregardthebrutalwarineastern
Ukrainealmostentirelythroughthelensofgeopolitics.Theterriblehumansufferingofthe
warremainsanunfocusedforegroundthattheygazethroughata"resurgentRussia,"
"Europeinthebalance,""challengestoworldorder."

Thedistortingeffectofthisdistancebecamevisibletotheauthorsofthisarticle,oneof
whomspentSeptember25rubbingelbowswithpolicymakersatthecongressionalforum,
andtheotherastheguestofayoungUkrainianfamilyonthefrontlinesofthisconflict.

MAINTAININGTHEILLUSION

TheforumbroughttogetherprominentUkrainian,EuropeanandAmericanpoliticiansand
activiststoadvocateforhumanitarian,economicand"yes,militaryaid"asUkrainegradually
recedesfromtheheadlines.Buttheywerematchedbynumerousspeakerswhocalledfor
areignitionoftheveryconflictthathasbroughtthatcrisison.TheystatedthatUkrainians
mustbearmedforthepreservationofEuropeanorder,because-asformerGeorgian
AmbassadorTemuriYakobashviliputitduringadiscussionattheforum-"theyaretheonly
oneswhoknowhowtofightRussians."

Lestanyonethinkthatareturntoarmedhostilitiesmightcomeattoohighacostforthe
alreadytraumatizedcountry,Ukrainewasremindedoverandoverthatthestakesarepan-
European,ifnotglobal.

"AsuccessfuldemocraticstruggleinUkrainewillhelprevivethedemocraticspiritinEurope
andtheUnitedStates,"saidCarlGershman,presidentoftheNationalEndowmentfor
Democracy."Ukrainecansucceed,andifitdoes,itwillnotjustbeatriumphforthe
Ukrainianpeople.ItwillalsomakepossibleaEuropethatiswholeandfree."Similarly,
GeneralWesleyClarkemphaticallystatedinhiskeynoteaddressthat"muchofmankind's
futureisbeingdecidedinUkraine"and"ifUkrainecompletesthistransitiontoWestern
democracy...there'snomorewarinEurope.Ever.Ever!"Nopressure.

Astonishingly,bellicosestatementslikethoseofYakobashviliandClarkreceivedcheersand
applausefromtheaudience.Whilethesestatementsmaysoundlikeacomplimenttothe
Ukrainianpeople,thispositionreducestheircountrytoabufferzone-aperpetualfrontline.
NeitherAmericannorEuropeanpoliticianscanaffordtotelltheirdomesticaudiencesthat
theyarenotdoingenoughtostoptheRussianaggression(especiallygivenitsrecent
involvementinSyria).Andsotoagreatextent,Ukraineisexpectedtobemoreaggressive
initsfightagainstRussiainordertomaintaintheillusionthatthereisstillprogressin
containingMoscow.

Andbehindthecold,pragmaticconceptofa"bufferzone"hidesitstruemeaning:"buffer
people."ItisUkrainianswhoaretoengagetheRussianarmedforceswiththelong-
promisedadvancedweaponry,andUkrainianswhowillcomprisetheentiretyofthe
collateraldamage.

WhileUSPresidentBarackObamavetoedthenationaldefensebudget,whichincluded$50
milliontowarddefensiveweaponsforUkraine,heannouncedthatWashingtonwouldstill
supplyUkrainewithcounter-batteryradarsystems.AndifUSofficialsdon'tseeprovisionof
radarsaspotentiallyescalatingtheconflict,Russiacertainlydoes-anditalreadythreatened
retaliation.

Obamaiswisetoavoidthemoreescalatorymove.Thecostofareturntofull-onwarfor
Ukrainewouldbeuntenable.AttheUnitedNations'conservativeestimate,thewarhaskilled
8,000peopleanddisplacedapproximately1.4million.Thelife-givingminingandindustrial
sectorsofDonbasareravaged,andtheeconomiccrisisinducedbythewarisspreading
thateffectfarintogovernment-controlledterritory.

ONTHEGROUNDINDONBAS

Figurescannotexpressthefullcostofsufferingandstrife,andthedeepalienationinthe
easternUkraine.OneoftheseauthorsspentthelovelyautumndayofSeptember25far
fromWashingtonatayoungfamily'shalf-finishedhomeontheDonbasfrontline.Denisand
Yuliasurvivedtheshellinginsummer2014,whentheUkrainianarmydrovetheseparatists
outoftheircity.Butthatwinter,theirhomewasdestroyedbyadirecthitfromseparatist
artillery,killingbothofYulia'sparents.

Theyreturned,andformonthsclearedtherubbleandplantedtheirgardenunder
intermittentshelling.Theirchildrenlearnedtoidentifythesoundofdifferentshellsasthey
passedoverheadinbothdirections.Withthehelpofaidorganizationsandvolunteers,they
beganrebuildingtheirshatteredhome.GazingatthecinderblockwallsoftheirhouseYulia
sighs:"Formeandthekids,thisisalreadyhappiness.Justgiveuspeacesowecanenjoy
it!"

Justgiveuspeace.

ThisisthephraseonehearsfromsomanyrefugeesandfrontlineciviliansinDonbas.From
peoplelikeNatasha,whofledtheSyrianconflictthreeyearsago(shewasmarriedtoa
Kiev-educatedArab)fortherefugeofherparent'shomeinLuhansk.Whenthecitycame
underfirebytheUkrainianarmylastspring,sheandherchildrenbecamerefugeesagain,
movingtoagovernment-heldtownacrosstheriver,whichitselfwasunderconstantfire
untilthegunswentsilenttwomonthsago.

Andnow,inthemidstofitsunaccustomedandfragilesilenceNatasha,Yulia,Denisand
thousandslikethemarecautiouslyallowingthemselvestohopethatthisisnomerelullin
thefighting,buttheendofthewarthathasoverturnedtheirlives.Thisisreflectedinthe
fallingnumbersofinternallydisplacedpersons(IDP).InOctober,theUNRefugeeAgency
(UNHCR)reportedroughly1.5millionIDPsinUkraineamonthlater,thenumberdroppedto
under975,000-astaggering35%decrease.Encouragedbythereducedfighting,peopleare
returningtotheirhomes.

Iftheirhopeisrewarded,andtheyarenotforcedtospendanotherwinterhidingfromthe
bombsinfreezingbasementsandrootcellars,thenitcouldbecomeapotentforcefor
reconciliationandstabilizationinUkraine.

PEACEISVICTORY

TreatingUkraineasashieldagainstRussia,asa"bufferzone,"couldmeankeepingthat
countryinanearperpetualstateofarmedconflictandeverythingthatEuropehopesto
reduceonitsperimeters-instability,povertyandmassrefugeeflows.
TheUSshouldincreasediplomaticsupporttoresolvetheMinskAgreement'scentral
quandary:Iftheso-calledpeople'srepublicsaretoremaininUkraine,howwilltheytakepart
inthepoliticsofacountrytheyhaverecentlybeeninarmedconflictwith?

Anysustainableresolutionislikelyproveasmessyasthepoliticalresolutionthatendedthe
fightinginBosnia20yearsago.Thehorse-tradingandgerrymanderingofthatdealwere
repugnant,butunquestionablypreferabletothefratricidethatprecededit.

StabilizingDonbaswillalsorequireUkrainetorethinkitseconomicblockadeofthe
breakawayregions.IftheartificialinternalborderbetweenthetwohalvesofDonbas
remainsapersistentbarriertotrade,thenbothsidesaredoomedtoeconomicdecline.Itis
onlyaquestionofwhichsponsorcanpropupitsDonbaslonger.

Evenifeconomicrelationsintheeastarerestored,hugeinjectionsofforeignaidwillstillbe
necessarytopropuptheeconomyofUkraineproper.InMarch,theInternationalMonetary
Fund(IMF)approvedUkraine'srequestfor$17.5billion.Forgoodmeasure,theUShas
committed$2billioninloanguarantees.Howeverlaudable,thisleveloffinancialsupportis
nothingcomparedtothehundredsofbillionstheEuropeanUnionhaspouredintoGreece
andinthewordsofDavidR.Cameron,directorofYale'sPrograminEuropeanUnion
Studies,WesternassistancetoUkrainehasbeen"quiteliterally,nothingbutcheaptalk."

WesternleadersshouldfocusonhelpingUkrainestaveoffeconomiccollapseintheeast,
capitalizeonthisrenewedsenseofhopeandcontinuetosearchnonmilitarysolutions.With
thereturnofcivilianpopulationstoDonbas'conflictzones,thestakesareonlygetting
higher.Noweapon,howeverprecise,willeliminateUkraine'senemies,deterRussiaor
makeEuropesaferwithoutthepoliticalwilloftheconflictingsidestoagreetoapeaceful
coexistence.

Yakobashviliisrightinsayingthat"asuccessfulUkrainewillbeacrucialpartofthe
EuropeanandEuro-Atlanticeconomicandsecurityarchitecture,andastimulusfortherest
ofthepost-Sovietregion,especiallytoRussia,toreformanddragthemselvesoutofthe
swampofcorruptionandforcedideologies."Ukrainianscanberolemodelsforhumanism
anddemocracy,andtheplacetostartisinthevolatileperipheralzoneoftheeast.

IfUkraineistobecomeamodelandnotacautionarytale,thentheWestmusthelpitto
protectcivilianpopulationsinDonbasandseekapoliticalsolutiontothisconflict.

[returntoContents]

#22
www.rt.com
February19,2015
"KievgovtresistsonlysolutiontoUkrainecrisis-fullautonomyofDonbass"

TheKievleadership,atleastPMArsenyYatsenyuk,isresistingtheonlysolutionwhichcan
endtheUkraineconflict-fullautonomyfortheDonbassregion,AnatolLieven,of
GeorgetownUniversitySchoolofForeignService,toldRT'sIntheNow.

RT:LastyearWesterngovernmentsclaimedtheywouldbeabletobringprosperityand
democracytoUkraine.CouldUkrainianleadersandtheirforeignsupporterspredictwarand
disorderaftermassprotestinthecountryayearago?

AnatolLieven:No,Idon'tthinktheypredictedit.ClearlytheAmericangovernmentwastrying
tobringaboutthefallof[Viktor]YanukovichbutIdon'tthinkthattheypredictedwhatwould
follow.Onecouldsaythattheyshouldhavepredictedit,butthatisadifferentmatter.Oneof
thestrikingthingsisthatthereweresomanyso-calledexpertsintheWestwhowere
completelyrecklessandirresponsibleinthisregard.

RT:WhatdoyouthinkwastheinitialplanorhopesforUkraine?

AL:Thethingisthatdifferentpeoplehaddifferentplans.WhenitallstartedAmericawasnot
reallyinvolved.ThiswassomethingthattheEUpushed,aboveallbyPoland,andtosome
extentbytheEUpoliticianslikeCarlBildt,initiatedthisEuropeanassociationagreement
whichwasintendedtoblockpossibleUkrainianmembershipoftheEurasianUnion.This
wasanewthing.TheUSessentiallygotonboardlater,asthecrisisdeveloped.Butasthe
crisisdevelopedclearlytheUS,oratleasttheUSdiplomatsontheground,likeVictoria
Nulandfollowedtheiroldplaybookoftryingtopromotewhattheysawwasfreedom,tryingto
createananti-RussianregimeinUkraine.Eventuallytheintentionwasclearlytotake
UkraineintoNATO.

RT:HowdoyouevaluatethejobthatPetroPoroshenkoandArsenyYatsenyukaredoing
consideringhowandwhathasevolvedintheEastofUkraine?

AL:Ofcoursenotabrilliantjobatall,butthentheyareinaverydifficultpositionaboveall
economically.TheUkrainianeconomyiscollapsingWesternaidisonlyenoughtokeepit
tickingalong.UkraineisstillmuchmoredependentonRussiaandofcourserelationswith
Russiahavedeterioratedbadly.Fromthatpointofviewtheyareinaverydifficultsituation.
TherearealsostrongdifferencesbetweenYatsenyukandPoroshenko.Itappearsthat
Poroshenkoisconsiderablymoremoderateandpragmatic.Yatsenyuk,possiblywiththe
encouragementoftheAmericanhardliners,isagreatdealmorenationalistic.Theproblem
isthattheyarestronglyresistingtheonlykindofdeal,atleastYatsenyukis,whichcan
actuallybringanendtothisconflict...thefullautonomyfortheDonbass.They'vedragged
theheelsandtriedtoblockthat.Onecouldsaythattheseparatists'leadersaredoingthe
samething.Butclearlywithoutanagreementonautonomytherecan'tbeevenahalfway
successfulendtothiswarfromtheUkrainianpointofview.Yatsenyukseemstobe
fantasizingaboutthepossibilityofamilitaryvictory.

RT:WhataboutWednesday'sretreatofUkrainianforcesfromDebaltsevo?Doesitmean
thatwe'relookingattheendofthewar?

AL:Ithinkthatispossible.Whathasnowbeenestablishedisamuchmoreviablefrontline.
ClearlyaslongastheUkrainiansheldDebaltsevotherewasgoingtobeendlesstrouble.
Hopefully,thepro-Russiansidenowhaswhattheycouldseeasadefensibleborder.
Therefore,perhaps,willbewillingtoaccepttheceasefireandgoforwardalongthelinesof
autonomy.ButofcoursethatalsodependsontheUkrainiangovernmentbeingwillingto
acceptthepresentsituation.

[returntoContents]

#23
RossiiskayaGazeta
August27,2015
BiddingFarewelltotheCivilWar
Anationthathasnotburieditsperishedfellowcitizenscannotrespectitselfandmove
forward
BySergeiKaraganov,DoctorofHistory,headoftheworkinggrouponhistoricalmemoryat
thepresidentialCouncilontheDevelopmentofCivilSocietyandHumanRights

ManyencouragingchangesaretakingplaceinRussia'shistoricalmemorypolicy,withallits
contradictions,sensationsandfalsesensations.Effortsarebeingmadetorestorethe
memoryofthe"forgottenwar"(WWI),whichformanyyearswasreferredtoas
"imperialistic."AmonumenthasbeenunveiledinMoscow,tobefollowedbymanymore,
andlocalmuseumsaresettinguprelevantexhibitions.

AnothermajorstepinrecreatingacomprehensivepictureofRussianhistorywastakenin
August2015whenthefederalgovernment,onordersfromthePresident,adopteda
conceptofstatepolicyforperpetuatingthememoryofthevictimsofpoliticalrepressions.
Thedocumentwasdraftedbygovernmentagenciesandpublicorganizations,aboveall,by
thepresidentialCouncilontheDevelopmentofCivilSocietyandHumanRights(SPCh).

Asisoftenthecaseinourcountry,thedocumentdidnotcomeeasy.Almostfiveyearsago
agroupofenthusiastsassociatedwiththeSPChinitiatedandpresentedaprogramfor
commemoratingthevictimsandrestoringhistoricalmemory.Weweredrivenbyseveral
principalconvictions.

First,anationthathasnotburieditsperishedfellowcitizenscannotrespectitself,standtall
andgoforward.Likewise,apersonwhohasnotburiedhisbelovedonesdoesnotdeserve
eitherself-respectorrespectofotherpeople.
Second.Forallitsachievements,the20thcenturywasoneofthemostterribleperiodsin
thehistoryofRussia.WorldWarI,thefratricidalCivilWar,andtheGreatPatrioticWar
claimeddozensofmillionsoflives.Plusrepressionsthatkillednotjustmanymillionsof
people,butthebestmenandwomenofthecountry,membersofthegentry,theclergyand
intelligentsia-thekeepersofhistoricalmemoryandnationalidentity-aswellaspeasants
whowerethebackboneofthenation.Theywerefollowedbymanyintellectuals,
administrativecadresandmembersofthemilitary.Entirepeoplesweredeported.
Traditionalvalues,faithandmoralsweredestroyed.Inpointoffact,thebestcitizensandthe
bestincountry`ssoulweresystematicallyeliminatedforseveraldecades.Russiamust
partwiththatperiod.

Third,aconsiderablepartofnationalhistory,thebasisofthepeople'sidentity,waseither
expurgatedordistortedintheirminds.Restoringthememoryofthevictimsispartofthe
worktobedonetorecreatehistoryinitsentirety.

Ourdocumentatfirstdrewstrongoppositionfrompartofsocietyandwasattackedinmass
mediawhichforsomereasoncalleditaprogramofde-StalinizationeventhoughIandmy
colleaguesmadeitclearthatitwasaprogramtorestoreidentitythroughrespectforthe
memoryofthefallen.Besides,wedidnotthinkitrighttoholdonlyStalinresponsiblefor
manyfellowcitizenswhohadplungedthecountryintotherevolutionandrepressions.

Buttheattack,obviouslysupportedbysomeoneinfluential,judgingfromitsintensity,helped
ratherthanharmedbymakingtheideamorepopular.Itwassadthoughthatyoungpeople,
anewcreativeclass,didnotsupporttheprogramfouryearsago.Apparently,itdidnot
excitethem.Butthousandsofpeopleandaboutadozenofpublicorganizationsfamiliar
withtheproject,abovealltheInternationalMemorial,workedwithunprecedented
selflessnessandenergy.About800localmonumentshavebeenerectedacrossthe
country,anddozensofbooksandarticleswerepublished.Theworkofourgrouphelpedto
unitemanyseparatehistoricalmemorymovements.IstillcannothelpsmilingwhenIrecall
thefirstmeetingwehelpedtoorganizebetweentheheadsofMemorialandtheButovo
ShootingRange,whoalsorepresentedtheOrthodoxChurch.Untilthenbothsideshad
commemoratedtheirvictimsseparately.Nowtheydoittogether.Philanthropists'donations
allowedustolaunchandoperatethewebsitewww.istpamyat.ru,whichhasconsolidated
manysourcesofinformationconcerningvictimsofrepressions.Wealsodrafteda
commemorationprogramwhichthenservedasthebasisforthepresentconcept.We
thoughtthecountryneededasignofstatesupportforthegoalsandobjectivesdeclaredin
theprogramthatwouldsendasignaltobothbureaucratsandsociety.

Theconceptsendssuchasignaltoallofus.Thereisnoneedtodescribeithere,foritcan
easilybefoundontheInternet.Iwillonlymentionitsunderlyingprinciples:recognizingthe
continuityofthehistoricaldevelopmentofthecountryacknowledgingthetragic
consequencesofthesocietalsplitthattriggeredtheturmoilof1917,theCivilWar,and
masspoliticalrepressionsadmittingtheneedforanobjectiveanalysisoftheSoviet
period'sachievementsandtragicchapters,includingmassrepressionscondemningthe
ideologyofpoliticalterror.

AtoneofthemeetingswiththePresidentin2013wesuggestedbuildinganational
monumenttothevictimsofpoliticalrepressionsinMoscow.ThePresidentsupportedthe
ideathathadbeentoolongincoming.Acontestofdesignswasorganized,andabout300
projectsweresubmitted.Thewinnerwillbeannouncedsoon,andtheconstructionwillstart
atthesiteselectedbytheMoscowcityauthoritiesattheintersectionofSakharovAvenue
andtheGardenRingroad.Thefederalgovernmentwillmeetpartofthecosts,forourstate
isthelegalsuccessoroftheonethatprosecutedandkilledpeople.Therestwillcomefrom
people'sdonationsasasignofpersonalgriefforthefallenandrecognitionofthe
responsibilitybornbyourfathersandgrandfathersfortherepressionstheycarriedout.

ThebigandmodernGULAGMuseumwillopeninMoscowonOctober30designatedas
DayofRemembranceoftheVictimsofPoliticalRepressions.Theprojectwasinitiatedby
theMoscowcitygovernment.TheGardenofMemoryhasbeensetupattheButovo
ShootingRange,anditsmuseumwillgetanewbuildingtoexpanditsexhibitions.Workon
abillfullyrehabilitatingthevictimsofpoliticalrepressionsisinitsfinalstage.

Inanotherencouragingdevelopment,peopleunitedinthe"LastAddress"publicmovement
haveinstalledmemorialplaquesonseveraldozenhousesinMoscowandSt.Petersburgto
commemoratethosewhohadlivedthereandbeenkilledduringrepressions.
ButtherearestillmanydangerousvoidsinRussianhistoricalmemory.Oneofthemishow
societyandthestateperceivetheCivilWarprecipitatedbythesplitofsocietyanditselite,
itsincapabilityandlossofresponsibilityforthecountry,withallthetragicconsequences
thatfollowed.Aquarterofacenturyago,themajorityofpeopleinthecountrysupportedthe
Reds,thentheWhites.It'stimetounderstandthatbothwerewrongbyallowingthesplit
andstartingafratricidalwar.Nowsocietyisdividedagain,eventhoughdifferently,and
needstoberemindedofthedramaticresultsofthepreviousspiltandirresponsibilityof
elites.Butmostimportantly,thatthecountryandMotherlandareabovepersonalconvictions
andindividualfates.

Spainisanexampleofhowtobidadignifiedfarewelltoacivilwar,whichwasalsotragic
butnotasdisastrousasours.Itbuiltalargememorialcomplexwherepeoplefromboth
warringsideswerelaidtorest.Ontopofthememorialareacrossandanepitaphreading
"TheylovedSpain."

It'stimeweputanend,atleastasymbolicone,toourownCivilWarthatstartedalmosta
hundredyearsago,in1917.Ithinkthereshouldbeamonumenttoo.Ivisualizeitquite
clearly:MotherMotherlandisbestowingforgivenessonthekneltWhiteofficerandtheRed
commissarwearingabudyonnovka.OneofthemhadfailedtodefendtheoldRussiaand
diedignominiouslyabroadtheotheronehadwontoperishinrepressions.Thisisahard
issuefornationalconscience.ButitistimetobidfarewelltotheCivilWarthrough
discussion,atleastdeepwithinus,andfillthisvoidinhistory.

[returntoContents]

#24
RunningforOfficeinSiberia:Andthewinneris.....
LastinaseriescoveringtheDistrict#35NovosibirskCityCouncilelection.
September17,2015
BySarahLindemann-Komarova
[Founder,SiberianCivicInitiativesSupportCenter1995-2014.Helpedtoestablishthisas
thehubforthefirstcivilsocietydevelopmentsupportnetworkintheformerSovietUnion.]

Articlewithpictures:
http://medium.com/@ECHOSiberia/running-for-office-in-siberia-and-the-winner-is-
980b2b069ccb

Earlierepisodes:
http://medium.com/@ECHOSiberia

ElectionDay:Thegloriousdaysof30degreeSiberianIndianSummersunshinewereover.
Itwassixdegreesandraining,theweatheryoudonotwantifyourchancesofwinning
dependonalargeturnout.ThiswasthecasewithNataliaPinusinDistrict#35.Nikita
Galitarov,hermajoropponent,aggressivelytargetedpensioners,thecertainvotersin
Russia.Shewascountingoninspiringanewgrouptobecomeactive.Thebigdare.A
chancetoprovethepotentialofgrassrootsdemocracyinRussiaandbuildonthelegacyof
thiscommunity.Akademgorodok,theplacewhereperestroikawasbornattheInstituteof
EconomicsacrossthestreetfromthecoffeeshopthatwouldserveasElectionDay
headquartersforNatalia'scampaign.Twopostersstuckonthewallweretheonlyindication
thiswasnotyourordinarycaf.Onewasasign,"HeadquartersforNataliaPinus
supporters".Theother,achart,listedpollingplacesandtimeintervals.Nataliawasthere
alongwithAlla,hergoodfriend,whowasinchargeofregisteringthevotercountreportedby
observersevery2hoursfromeachofthe15stations.Anothermanwashunkereddownin
thecorner.Galitarov'sguy,helookedexactlylikeathugsentbyaconstructioncompanyto
intimidateyoushouldlook.AtleastinRussiabecausehewasdrinkingteaandplayingwith
afancyphoneandcomputer.WorldswerecollidingatHeadquartershighlightingthestakes.
Wasitpossiblea29yearoldcandidate,whodidnotliveorworkhere,whoseonly
distinguishingcharacteristicswereapileofmoneyandmasterfuldirtytrickskills,couldend
uprepresentingthiscommunityintheCityCouncil?Theonlycertaintywastheweatherand
itwasraining.Foranelectionthathadmorphedfromaneight-personracetoamythical
battlebetweengoodandevil,thiswasnotgood.

Initially,thepollingstationshadmoreofficialpersonnelthanvoters(electioncommission
members,observers,policeanddoctors).Ifanythingwasreallyoff,itwouldbenoticedby
allotofpeople.By10AM,theGalitarovpeoplehadplasteredanewbatchofpostersonmy
building,aclearviolationoftherules.Igotacallfromafriendjustasitstartedtohail.She
wasemphaticseveraldaysago,"neverforNatalia".Now,shewasoutraged,"Whatisgoing
on?Whatugliness!ANIGHTMAREishappening!"ShewasgoingouttovoteforNatalia.
Maybetheyhadtakenthesteptoofar,notinthiscommunity,theAkademgorodokwagons
werecircling.

Hypothetically,anythingovertheofficial24%turnoutestimatewouldbeinNatalia'sfavor.
The2PMcountwasgoodwith18.99%.BetshadbeenplacedandDanil,asupportive
presencethroughoutthecampaign,tookthehigh-endpositionwith31%.Nataliawas
talkingtothenochance,butniceguy,candidatefromthedemocraticsocialistAJust
Russiaparty.Theycomparednotesaboutthecellphoneterrorismtheirteamsexperienced
thismorning.Supporterswereplayingabuildingblocktowergame.Theobjectivewasto
removeawoodenpiecewithoutcausingthestructuretocollapse.Theperfectwaytokill
time,practicingthestrategyanddisciplinethatkeptNatalia'scampaignfromcollapsing
whenshesaid"no"toUnitedRussiaafterwinningtheprimary.TheGalitarovthugwasgone
whenthetowerfell.Thisremindedmeofaquotebytherecentlyelected,firstfemaleMayor
inBarcelona."Inthestoryofhumanity,everythingisimpossibleuntilitbecomespossible".
Justlikethebuildinggame,youwillnotknowifyougotthebalancerightuntiltheblockis
completelyremoved.

By6PMturnoutwas27.3%.Nataliawasoutvotinganddeliveringdinnerstovolunteers
throughoutthedistrict.Leonid,campaigncoordinator,isinchargetalkingtovolunteersin
thefieldandscanningtheInternetfornews.A30yearoldphysicistattheNuclearPhysics
Institute,politicsishishobby.Meanwhile,amanIneversawbeforewasholdingcourt.He
describedhowaProfessorinTomsksoldhisvoteandthenoutsmartedthebuyer.He
organizedtwopiecesofblackthreadtolooklikeacheckmarkontheballot,tookthe
confirmationpictureandthenremovedthem.Sincethismanseemedtoknoweverything
aboutelectionsIasked,"What'sthedealwithGalitarov?Whyisthismansointenton
representingAkademgorodok?"AccordingtoAkadem'sversionofDeepThroat,United
RussiawasreallyinterestedinNatalia'sprimaryperformance.Nobodyvotesinprimaries
sotheywereimpressedwiththetinynumberofvotessheturnedout(204),andevenmore
withthegapbetweenherandsecondplace(65).Then,Nataliapolitelydeclined.Inher
account,thePartyrepresentativetookthenewscalmlyandwishedherwell.InDeep
Throat'saccount,thatwasitforher.TheytoldGalitarovtotakethe18millionrubleshewas
planningtospendinanotherdistrictanduseittodefeatNatalia.HeestimatesthatNatalia's
surprisingstayingpowerforcedthefinalcostofhiscampaignto20million.

PollsclosedateightbutCityCouncilvotesarethelastoffourracescounted.Sometime
aftermidnighttheofficialwinnerwouldbedeclared.Headquarterswasstayingopen
trackingresultsuntilthecafclosedatmidnight.Nataliawasbusyonthephonegetting
updates.Allaoccupiedthecornerseatformerlyheldbythethug.Shefilledinchartsdrawn
onXeroxpaperusingamagnifyingglasstosee.Thefirstresultwasfromaschoollocated
inNatalia'sbaseterritory.Thenewswaspromising,thesizeofthewinsignificant.Itgave
hera40votecushiontomakeupforlosseselsewhere.Iaskedoneofhersupporterswhat
hethoughtwasgoingtohappen.Hesaidanyattempttoinfluencethevotewouldhappen
beforetheballotsarecountedbecauseNovosibirskdoesn'thavea"system".Hedefineda
"system"asnoacceptedhierarchywithpowertointervene.Breakinganelectionlaw
procedureisacriminaloffense.Ifthereisn'ta"system",noonewillriskdoingit.Iasked
howyouknowifthereisa"system"?Afriendofhiswasanobserverinaneighboring
region.Apoliceofficerorderedhimtostandthreemetersawayinacornerwhilethey
countedthevotes.Theywouldarresthimifheignoredthepoliceorder.Thatisa"system".
Itwaspossibletomakesmalladjustmentsduringthecount.Legallythecommissionis
requiredtoholdupeachballotandannouncethenamebeforeplacingitonapile(think
chadsin2000).Sometimes,experiencedcommissionmembersspeeduptheprocess.
Theymakepilesfirstandthencounttheballotsbutheexpectedanhonestcounttonight.

At11:30PMAllawasperchedoverhersheets,magnifyingglassinhand,counting.Results
fromGalitarovterritoryweresurprisinglygoodforNatalia.Losseswereonlybyafewvotes.
Inothernews,CommunistPartywinsinterritoriesNataliacarriedasDeputydemonstrated
theconfusednatureofRussianpolitics.Andre,theDirectorofAcadem.infoandAkademTV,
wasthere.Hepledgedtoshavehisbeardandsharewhatlookedlikewaterinabeautiful
corkedglassbottleifshewon.Closingtime,Andregrabbedthemysteriousbottleand
invitedeveryonetocontinuethevigilathisoffice.Nataliawentshoppingforsnacks.There
wasnosenseofexcitement,justtimetomoveon.OutonthestreetAndrerevealedthe
bottlewashispersonalrecipesamogon(Russianmoonshine),50proof."Youneverhad
anythinglikeit,noheadache".
Thereisauniqueatmospherecreatedwhenyouswitchonofficelightsinthemiddleofthe
night.Thatflorescentintensityappliestowhateverisgoingonbecauseotherwiseyouwould
behomesleepinglikeeveryoneelse.Allawasthefirsttosettleinspreadinghercharts
acrossthebestdeskandclaimingthebestchair.Nataliaarrivedandlaidoutaspreadof
delicaciesthatconstitutethesecrettoRussianscapacitytosopupalcohol(fishandmeat,
picklesandeggplantrolls,almondsandpistachios).Theyarealsodisciplineddrinkers.
Thereisaritualtoit.Nothinggetsuncorkeduntilthereissomethingtotoast,victoryor
defeat.Theresultsalreadyinshouldhavebeengoodenoughtoinspiregiddyconfidence
amongthecampaignstaff.Therewasnone.IwassuretheyallknewwhatIlearnedtonight,
20millionrublesspenttodefeather.Someonemusthaveatrickuptheirsleeve.Natalia
workedthephones,Allacountedandrecounted,thecoordinatorcollectedsignedofficial
talliesfromobserverswhiletherestmadesmalltalk.Iwondered,ifnotthecount,whatwill
bethesignalitisoktostartdrinking?

Natalia'sphonerang.Whoeverwasontheothersidewasdoingmostofthetalking.Natalia
utteredshort,somberrepliesendingwith"Thankyou"beforeclickingoff.Thegangstaredat
herwaitinguntilsomeonefinallyasked,"whowasthat?"Nataliaanswered"Galitarov",again
silenceuntilsheadded,"hecongratulatedme".Noonewhooped,itwassoanti-climaticI
forgottocapturethemomentonfilm.Andrestartedtouncorkthechampagne,theonlyone
withasmile,asAllasaidsomethingaboutamissingsignatureandNataliastartedtoeat
pistachiosbeforereturningtolookatwhatshewasworkingon.Thiswasactuallyit.Iturned
onthecameraandgotabusinessasusualscenewhileAndreworkedonthecorksoI
decidedtoprompt.

Me:Natalia,whowasjustonthephone?
Natalia:Myopponent.
Andre(laughing):MAINopponent.
Natalia(slightsmileonherfaceasshecontinuestopickatthepistachios):Yes,main
opponent,Galitarov.
Me:Andwhatdidhesay?
Natalia:HesaidIcongratulateyouforthehonestwinandthensomekindofthoughtsabout
thingsIhadchargedhimwith...

SheshiftedfocusbacktoAllamumbling,"Idon'trememberaccusinghimofanything".
Andreemptiedtheentirebottlefillingsevenwaterglasses.Nataliaturnedaroundandasked,
"Whydidyoudothat?"Iassumedshedisapprovedoftheportionsbecauseshewantedto
pacethedrinking.Itturnedoutshewantedjustasipofchampagneforthetraditionalfirst
toast.Then,moveontothesamagonwithoutriskinga50proofheadache.Icontinuedto
waitforbehaviorIassociatedwithanelectoralfairytaleending.Wasitexhaustion,shock,
Russianpessimismevertriumphingovervictory?No,nooneknewhowtoreact.There
wasnoprecedentforthis.Theresponsetothisvictoryshouldbedifferent.Barbra
Streisand'sversionofFDRsrousingup-tempovictorysong."HappyDaysareHereAgain"
asacontemplative,defiantballadthatacknowledgesthefightisnotoveryet.Thethirdtoast
andIgetthetriumphantsoundbite.Asynchronizedclinkingofglasses,"TotheFIRST
victory!"andeveryonelaughs.

Epilogue

Intheend,afterallthepromises,Galitarov's"Idoitnow",Heating/KGBMan's"Warmthin
yourhome",Scienceman's"ContinuetheworkofLavrentevthetownsfounder",itwas
Natalia'ssimple,"IloveGorodok",thattookthepoliticsoutofitandwon.Anothermajor
factor,theGalitarovcampaignstrategistsmisjudgedthiscommunity.Ofthe31%ofeligible
voterswhoparticipatedinAkademgorodok,26.13%supportedNatalia.Galitarovsqueaked
outsecondplacewith16.77%toScienceman's16.27%.TheAJustRussianiceguycame
infourthandtheinvisibleUnitedRussiacandidatefifth.

EmotionalFacebookmessagesmadeclearthemeaningofhervictory.Theyalso
appreciateditssource,anhonestcampaign,manydescribingitasbeautiful.The
techniquessheusedarewellknown,easytounderstand,canbetaughtandreplicated.
Moreproblematic,thequalitiesNataliadisplayedasacandidate.Theyarerare,hardto
understandandimpossibletoteach.Liketryingtocatchlightninginabottle,butthatiswhat
makesthemsopowerfulwhentheyappear.Shewillneedallofthem,andthensome,asa
Deputyifsheisgoingtoachieveanythingatall.Thenew50memberNovosibirskCity
Councilmetforthefirsttimethreedaysaftertheelection.ThePartycountis:32United
Russia,12CommunistParty,2right-wingultranationalistLDPR,1socialdemocraticA
JustRussia,1neo-liberal(butwhoreallyknows)CivicPlatformPartyandtwoindependents
(includingNatalia).Iamconfidentofonlythreethings.Nataliawilltryherhardesttogetthe
resultsshecampaignedfor,itwillbeinterestingtoseewhathappensandfor,itwillbe
interestingtoseewhathappensandtheshorelineofcynicismhasreceded....atleastin
Akademgorodok.

[returntoContents]

#25
www.belgraviadispatch.com
March14,2015
REALISTICAPPRAISALOFRUSSIA'SPOLICYISN'TTANTAMOUNTTOAPUTIN
APOLOGIA
ByGregoryDjerejian
GregoryDjerejianisManagingDirectorandHeadofAsia-Pacificforaglobalasset
managementfirm,particularlyactiveincommercialrealestate,hotel&resortdevelopment,
companyacquisitions/disposalsandalternativeinvestments.

GideonRachmanisperhapsthemostperceptiveforeignaffairscolumnistwritingtoday,but
hegetsitbadlywronginhiscolumn("VladimirPutin'ssurvivalstrategyisliesandviolence",
March2),succumbingtospeculationinthewakeofBorisNemtsov'stragicmurder.

Mr.RachmanseekstotarasPutin"apologist"anyonewhobelievestheRussianPresident
isdrivenbylegitimatenationalinterests.Instead,Putinissolelyoutto"savehisownskin"
withthisthe"redthread"drivingallhisactions(includingMr.Nemtsov'smurder,itisallbut
pronounced).AswiththeSovietUnion,wemustnowadoptacontainmentpolicywith
Russia,hisargumentgoes.

Thiswouldbeahistorictragedy,butonefromwhichwecanstillstepback.Toavoid
Pavlovianrecoursetoneo-containmentwemustceasespillingendlessinkcastigatinga
noxiousMr.Putin(asHenryKissingerhaswritten,"demonizationofVladimirPutinisnota
policyitisanalibifortheabsenceofone.").Insteadweshouldadoptabroaderpurviewthat
elevatespolicy-makingawayfromserialrecrimination,perhapswithsomeofthebelow
threeobservationstoinformus.

First,realismadvisesoneavoidingprotractedcogitationsaroundthepotentialmotivations
ofstatesman.Behindthenicetiesofmyriadcommuniques&pronouncements,international
politicsremainrootedininterestsdefinedbypower,andinprecinctswellbeyondthewalls
ofTheKremlin.Policyshouldbeguidedbythisreality,ratherthanheatedspeculations
aroundtheprecisemotivationsofindividualstatesman.

Second,weshouldberemindedthatPutin,asaWestern-facingSaintPetersburgian,
profferedhishandtotheWestinthepast(indeed,evenMr.Nemtsovpreviouslysupported
Putin).Wesawthisopennessafter9/11whenPutinassistedtheU.S.initsanti-terror
campaign,notablywithrespecttoAfghanistan.Alas,ratherthanbuildonsuchmomentum,
PutinwaspaidbackwithroundsofNATOexpansion,apull-outfromtheAnti-Ballistic
MissileTreaty,theoversteppingofU.N.authorizationsinbothIraqandLibya,andcookie
dispensationsinMaidan.

Third,ashakycease-firewilllikelyultimatelyfail-toUkraine'sgravedetriment-unlessworld
powersmovefromtacticalcrisismanagementtomorestrategicconflictresolution.This
mustinvolveUkraineforsakingNATOmembershipinreturnforrestorationofitsborders
(ex-Crimea),aswellasprovisionofbonafidelanguageandminorityrightsina
decentralizedDonbass.NotleastgiventheparamountNATOissue,onesuspectstheU.S.
cannotcontinuetogetawaywithlargelysubcontractingitsUkrainepolicytoAngelaMerkel.

TodaytherhetoricfromWashingtonandLondon(thankfullynotyetfromtheWhiteHouse)
resoundswiththedogsofwar:armingUkraine,"frontlinestates"withNATO"command&
controlcenters",essentiallyarenewedmilitarytrip-wirebestridingMoscow's(shrunken)
frontiers.Howdoweexpectadeclining,humiliatedpowertorespondinthecircumstances?
VladimirPutin'sapprovalratingsareveryhighforareasonbeyondablepropaganda.
Deeperhistoriccurrentsandrealitiesareafootthatweignoreatourownperil.

[returntoContents]
#26
TheUnzReview
www.unz.com
August21,2015
RussiaandtheDepressionThatWasn't
ByAnatolyKarlin
[Chartsandlinksherehttp://www.unz.com/akarlin/russia-not-in-depression/]

NearlyeveryotherdaybringsanotherscaryheadlineaboutRussia'seconomicapocalypse.
InflationisrobbingRussiansofbuyingpowerandPutinpropagandistsaredenyingit.The
"wheelsarecomingoff"theregimeaccordingtoourfriendsattheRFERL,theendofthe
regimeisnighaccordingtoBillBrowder,andPutin'sdaysarenumbered,atleastinthe
creativeimaginationofUkrainiannationalistacademicAlexanderMotyl.

MashaGessen'sfriendscannolongergettheirlittleGruyres,the"legendary"(primarilyfor
losinghisclients'money)MoscowinvestorSlavaRabinovichispredictingfoodshortages,
andthingsareonlyabouttogetworsewithoilfallingto$25perbarrelandtherubleto
125/$1,atleastaccordingtotheKhodorkovsky-fundedInterpretMag'sPaulGoble,whohas
madesomethingofaprofessionalcareerforecastingRussia'stakeoverbyMuslimsandthe
Chinese.

AmbroseEvans-Pritchard,theguywhohaspredictedalltwelveofChina'spastzero
recessionsamongstotherforecastingaccomplishments,saysthatRussiais"inafull-
blowndepression."

OnewouldthinkfromallthenoisethatwearelookingatsomesortofGreece-like
depression,oranimminentrerunofthecollapseofthepost-Sovieteconomyinthe1990s.

Nowfortheratherbanalreality.RealGDPisexpectedtocontractbyaround2.7%thisyear
accordingtotheWorldBank,butthenrecoverto0.7%in2016and2.5%in2017.

Thereasonsbehindthisarelikewiseprettybanal.Theydon'thaveagreatdealtodowith
Westernsanctions,whichhurttheabilityofRussiancompaniestoraisecapitalbut
otherwisehavehadlittlebite,andtheyhaveevenlesstodowithanyparticularfeatureof
Russia'spoliticalsystem/kleptocracy/lackofeconomicfreedomsthatbothanti-Russian
establishmentpunditslikeArielCohenandpro-WesternliberalsinRussialikeformer
FinanceMinisterAlexeyKudrinliketoclaimasdoomingittoeconomicstagnation.Ifthey
wereright,thenEast-CentralEurope-mostofwhichisratedasaloteconomicallyfreer
andlesscorruptthanRussiaonthevariousindicesthatproclaimtomeasuresuch-would
notalsohavebeenstuckinarelativeeconomicrutsincearound2007.

No,thereasonforRussia'srecessionisquitesimpleandboilsdowntothesharpcollapse
inoilpricesfrom~$100in2014to~$50thisyear.

ThoughtheRussianeconomyisaboutfarmorethanjustoil-naturalresourcerentsare
18%ofGDP-itistruethatoilisthekeycomponentofRussia'sexportbasket.Sowhenoil
pricescollapse,intheabsenceofmassiveandunsustainableinterventions,theruble
devalues.Thisisindeedwhathappened.Importswentdown,goodsbecamemore
expensive,andinflationrose.TheCentralBankjackedupinterestratesinordertoprevent
runawayinflation,butatthepriceofadeclineinaggregatedemandandconsequentlya
short-rundecreaseintheGDP.Ifoneisreallysearchingforacomparison,thecorrectone
wouldbenottoGreece(whichislockedinamonetarystraitjacketbytheECB)nortothe
lateSovietUnion(whollyirrelevant)buttotheVolckerrecessionintheearly1980sUS.

Thereisnowaverysubstantialoutputgap.DependenceonWesterncreditisnowmuch
reducedrelativeto2013,tosaynothingof2007.Meanwhile,thereareactiveandserious
effortstodevelopRussia'sownfinancialsystem,whichremainswoefullyunderdeveloped
foraneconomyofitssizeandscope.

Finally,evenifoilpricesdroppermanentlyto$50-whichisentirelypossible,giventhe
removaloftheIransanctions,thiswouldnotmeantheRussianeconomywouldbe
necessarilydoomedtoyearsofstagnation.Tothecontrary,econometricmodelingby
RussianeconomistSergeyZhuravlevindicatesthatitwouldresultina~1.5yearrecession
(whichbeganinmid-2013,versus2012inhismodelbutotherwiseitremainsveryrelevant)
followedbyacceleratedGDPgrowththankstoexports.
Otherwise,macroeconomicindicatorsremainunremarkable.Corporatedebtrepayments
scheduledforthesecondhalfoftheyeararetwicelowerthaninthefirsthalf.Thebudget
deficitisforecasttobe3-4%ofGDPfortheyearandoverallstatedebtlevelscontinuetobe
verylow.(Incidentally,thisfigureis20%forSaudiArabia.Whichshouldputthenailinthe
coffinoftheidioticconspiracytheorythatthefallinoilpriceshasbeenorchestratedbythem
andtheUStoundermineRussia).
.
Unemploymenthasbarelybudged,notevenreaching6%atitspeak.Incomparison,itwas
at10%throughoutmuchofthe1990s.Thisisalmostentirelyanoutputrecession.

Nowinevitablywhenrecessionsoccur,livingstandardstendtofall,andpeoplehavetolive
morefrugally.ReadingtheWesternmedia,onewouldthinkthattherecessionhasledtoa
tsunamiinworkerprotests,criminality,andeliteintriguesagainstPutin.

Butinstatisticalterms,therealimpactsofthedownturnhavebeenmodest.Accordingto
Levadaopinionpolls,thepercentageofpeoplehavingdifficultybuyingfoodandclothing
increasedto32%thisyearfrom21%in2014,butthisisstilllowerthanthefigurefor(pre-
crisis)2012,whenitwasat33%,tosaynothingoftheearly2000s(higherthan50%)orthe
1990s(around80%).ThepercentageofRussianswhospendeither"almostall"or"two
thirds"oftheirincomesonfood,anothermeasureofpoverty,is26%thisyear,completely
unchangedfrom2014,andactuallylowerthanin2013(33%)orthe2000singeneral
(40%-50%),toagainsaynothingofthe1990s(consistentlyaround80%).Thesenumbers
havebeenconfirmedcrediblebyobserverssuchasRussiaInsider'sGilbertDoctorowand
AlexanderMercouris,whohavepersonallyassessedthesituationontheground,instark
contrasttotheNewYorkTimes'MashaGessen'srelianceonher"Jesuisfromage"liberal
Russianfriend.

ItisdeeplyunfashionabletosaythisbutRussianlivingstandardshaveimproved
astronomicallyinthe15yearsofPutin'srule-moresothantheheadlineGDPfigures.As
such,evenarecessionlikethecurrentoneonlykickslivingstandardsbackbyoneortwo
years.

Assuch,itisnotsurprising-ifdeeplydisappointingtotheWesterneliteswhowanttostir
upacolorrevolutioninRussia-thatRussia'slevelof"protestpotential"(thepercentageof
Russianssayingtheywouldbewillingtoparticipateinprotests,orratingthelikelihoodof
protestsasbeinghigh)iscurrentlynearrecordlows.

Naturally,anysuchattemptstoputtheeffectsofanultimatelymodest~3%dropinGDP
intostatisticalperspectivewillbemetwithaccusationsofcallousindifferenttotheplightof
theRussianpeople,andtheworkofOlginotrollstoboot.Ihaveseenthisreplayed
numeroustimesontheInternet,evenwhenthepeoplemakingsuchargumentswere
RussianslivinginRussians,whoseonlysinwastorecounttheirown(generallymodest)
experiencesandimpressionsoftherecession.

Makenomistake-thereisawellcoordinatedmediaeffortintheWesttoleverageany
RussianeconomicproblemstodestabilizetheKremlin.Notethechorusofcondemnation
aroundthedestructionoffoodillegallyimportedfromtheEUincontraventionofRussian
sanctions,eventhoughthedestructionofexcessfoodisroutineundertheEU'sCommon
AgriculturalPolicy.

Naturally,thisisdrivenbytheiraltruisticandheartfeltcommitmenttothewellbeingofthe
Russianpeople.Thoughisn'titjustaweebitstrangethatthosejournalistsand"activists"
whotendtoshoutloudestabouttheburningofEuropeanfoodalsotendedtobetheones
whomaintainedthethickestsilenceabouttheburningofRussianpeopleinOdessainthe
newEuropeanUkraine.

[returntoContents]

#27
ValdaiDiscussionClub
http://valdaiclub.com
June9,2015
IstheRussianFederationaThreattotheInternationalOrder?
ByDavidLane
DavidLaneisEmeritusFellowofEmmanuelCollege,UniversityofCambridge,aFellowof
theAcademyofSocialSciencesandaVice-PresidentoftheEuropeanSociological
Association
[Chartsandfootnotesherehttp://valdaiclub.com/russia_and_the_world/78040.html]

PresidentPutiniswidelyportrayedasathreattopeaceandtheinternationalorder.One
mightdistinguishbetweentwowaysofanalysingathreatposedbyastateinitsconductof
foreignaffairs.First,therearepositivedriversintheformofaggressiveactions.These
stemfromtheactionsofstateleaderswhoaremotivatedtoattackotherstatesfor
purposesoftheirownortheircountries'economicorpoliticaladvantage.Suchpoliciesmay
bedrivenbynationaloruniversalisticideologiesorbytheambitionsofleaders.Hitler's
DrangnachOstenandBritain'scolonialconquestofIndiamaybecitedasexamplesan
activepolicy[1].Second,thereareactionswhicharereactivetothepoliciesofotherstates.
Theseactionsaredrivenbyanxietyorfearderivedfromabeliefthatotherstatesare
behaving,orlikelytobehave,maliciously.Stateswithsuchperceptionsmayreact
aggressivelytodefendtheirinterests.Anexamplehereistheplacingofintercontinental
missilesonCubabytheUSSR.ThoughCubaclaimedthatthemissileswerepurelyfor
defensivepurposes,theUSAperceivedthemasathreatandretaliatoryaggressiveaction
todefenditsinterestsfollowed.

Thedebateabout'Russiaasathreat'totheinternationalorderhingesonwhichofthese
twoapproachesonebelievesdeterminesRussia'sbehaviour.

The'PositiveDrivers'Interpretation

Thecaseforanactive'threat'hasbeenputbyacademics,politicalleadersaswellas
journalistswritinginthequalitynewsjournals.Jean-ClaudeJuncker,thepresidentofthe
EuropeanCommission,inMarch2015calledfortheformationofa'Europeanarmytoface
uptotheMoscowthreat'[2].Theobjectiveisto'defendthevaluesoftheEuropeanUnion'.
TimothyGartenAsh,inTheGuardian(1February2015)revealedtheevilsofVladimirPutin
whomhedescribedas'theSlobodanMilosevicoftheformerSovietUnion:[whois]asbad,
butbigger.Behindasmokescreenoflieshehasrenewedhisdrivetocarveoutapuppet
para-stateineasternUkraine'[3].

Intheacademicsphere,MichaelMcFaulcontendsthatRussianforeignpolicychanged
underPutinasaconsequenceof'Russianinternalpoliticaldynamics'[4].ForMcFaul,the
motivatingfactoristhepublic'sdisapproval(expressedinvoting,demonstrationsandthe
fearthatPutinwouldbeconfrontedwithapopular'colouredrevolution')whichledhimto
adoptpoliciesthatwould'mobilisehiselectoralbaseanddiscredittheopposition'(p.170).
TheUSAwasrecastasanenemy,a'sinisterforceinworldaffairs'(ibid).

AprominentthemeexplainingRussianactioninforeignaffairsisthedrivetofulfilitsgeo-
politicalgoals.Russiaisregardedasacountryinterveningmilitarily'tomaintainitsinfluence
acrossthedomainsoftheformerSovietUnion'[5].InHillaryClinton'sview:'Weknowwhat
thegoal[oftheEurasianUnion]isandwearetryingtofigureoutwaystoslowdownor
preventit'[6].Theobjectivehereistohaltthespreadof(supposed)Sovietnormswhich
contaminatethevaluesofliberaldemocracyandamarketsociety.

Thepopularmediamessageisoneofpersonalityand'motive'.Russia'sPresidentisa
demoncombiningtheworstcharacteristicsofJosephStalin,AdolphHitlerandSlobodan
Milosevich(occasionallyreachingbacktoIvantheTerrible).'Putin'sRussia'isexpansionist,
nationalist,imperialist,dictatorial,andhypocriticallyanti-Western.Itthrivesonstrategiesto
destabiliseneighbouringcountries,aswellasNATOandtheEU.Theideologyof
EurasianismandtheformationoftheEurasianUnionareindicationsofthedesireto
reinventtheSovietUnion.Consequently,'Putin'sRussia'isthecauseofthecivilwarin
UkrainewhichisaprecursortotheactivedestabilisationoftheBalticnewmemberstates
oftheEUandNATO.Thisisascenarioofactiveaggressivepolitics.

TheantidoteprescribedbyPresidentPutin'scriticsistoescalateeconomic,politicaland
militarysanctions.FollowingtheeconomicrestrictionsagainstRussianfirmsandpersons,
inMarch2015theadvancedpartiesoftheAmericanandBritishmilitaryarrivedinUkraine.

ThroughtherhetoriconemightidentifyfourmajorissuesunderlyingRussianpolicy.Firstly,I
considerwhetheritsleadersaremotivatedtopromotetheirowninterestsbyde-stabilising
theinternationalordersecondly,whetheritsideologyentailsanythreattootherstates,
nationsorgroupsthirdly,whetherinitsactions,ithaspromotedamilitarybuildupand
finally,whethertheRussianFederationortheEurasianUnionpossessthemilitarycapacity
toposeaseriousdangertotheinternationalorder.

A'Reactive'Interpretation

AfterthedismantlingoftheSovietUnion,Russiainforeignaffairswasfacedbytwomajor
challenges.WhereasRussiawasindeclineanditsregionalbloc(TheCommonwealthof
IndependentStates)wasmoribund,theformeradversariesoftheSovietUnionwerebeing
considerablystrengthened.NATOandtheEuropeanUnionwereenlarged.Moreover,both
organisationshadmovedsignificantlytotheeast.Ironicallyperhaps,noneofthereasons
putforwardfortheexpansionofNATOtotheareasoftheformerUSSR,wereframedinthe
contextofapossible(letalonelikely)Russianmovetoseizeformerterritories.NATO's
expansiontotheeaststartedin1999withtheentryoftheVisegradcountries,followedin
2004byBulgaria,Estonia,Latvia,Lithuania,Romania,SlovakiaandSlovenia.Albaniaand
CroatiajoinedNATOin2009.Economically,politicallyandmilitary,'theWest'hadarrivedat
Russia'sborders.AttheurgingoftheUSA,inApril2008NATOconsideredtheadditionof
UkraineandGeorgia.FollowingoppositionfromGermanyandFrance,theywerenot
admitted.Butthealliancedidissueastatementthat'Thesecountrieswillbecome
membersofNATO'.Ifso,theencirclementofRussiawouldbecomplete.NATO's
enlargementwasjustifiedintermsofthecreationofazoneofpeace.TheRussian'threat'
surfacedlater.

FromRussia'sposition,theexpansionofNATOposesaseriousthreattoitssecurity.The
enhancedsecurityoftheNewMemberStatesisatthecostoflesssecuritytoRussia.
Russiahasbeenreactiveanddefensiveratherthanactivelyaggressive.Thepolicyofthe
RussianFederationunderPutinandMedvedeventailedamajorchangetowardstheWest
whichinfringedsomeestablishedWesternassumptions.InitsForeignPolicyConcept
(2000),Russia'sobjectivesweretopreservethesovereigntyandterritorialintegrityofthe
country.Itnotedcritically'agrowingtrendtowardstheestablishmentofaunipolarstructure
oftheworldwiththeeconomicandpoliticaldominationoftheUnitedStates.'

PolicydidnotseektooverturnthehegemonyoftheUSAortheneo-liberalframeworkin
whichitoperated.Itdoesnotentaileconomicautarchyorpoliticalisolation.Russiasought
analliancewiththeUSAinitswar'onterror'-withhisownconcernsaboutChechniain
mind-andallowedUSplanestouseRussianairspacetoflytoAfghanistan.Russiavoted
tosupporttheUNSecuritycouncil'ssanctionsagainstIran.Evenin2002,Russiawas
pragmaticabouttheadmissionoftheBalticstatesintoNATO.Russiaalsoabstainedfrom
votingontheUNSecurityCouncilresolutionauthorisingtheuseofforceagainstthe
QaddafiregimeinLibyain2011.

TheEuropeanUnion

ThesecondmajorchallengefacingthestatesoftheformerUSSRwastheenlargementof
theEuropeanUniontoincludethepost-SovietcountriesofcentralEurope.Itsinitial
objective(bearinginmindthehistoryoftwoworldwars)wastopreservepeaceinEurope
bycontainingpossibleaggressionbyenvelopingnationstateswithinacommoneconomic
unit,theEuropeanEconomicCommunity.TheleadershipoftheEUjustifiedenlargementas
bringingnotonlyeconomicwealthbutalsodemocraticEuropeanvalues.Thedevelopment
ofasupra-nationalstate,theEuropeanUnion,hasoutgrowntheoriginalconceptionand
hasimperialpretentions.Itisnoweffectivelyafederalstatecomposedof28'member
states',includingelevenpostcommuniststates[7].Itsmembershipmakesitaneconomic
counterparttoNATO.

AstheEuropeanCommissioner,JoseManuelBarrosoon10July2007putit:'Wearea
veryspecialconstructionuniqueinthehistoryofmankind.SometimesIliketocomparethe
EUasacreationtotheorganisationofempire.Wehavethedimensionofempire.Whatwe
haveisthefirstnon-imperialempire.Wehave27countriesthatfullydecidedtowork
togetherandtopooltheirsovereignty.Ibelieveitisagreatconstructionandweshouldbe
proudofit'[8].Here,inperhapsanunguardedmoment,heraisesthespectreofthe
EuropeanUnionasanempire,andthisviewhasledmanytodefineitintermsofcultural
andeconomicimperialism.

Membershiprequiresthesubordinationofsovereigntyofmemberstatestoacommon
economic,politicalandsocialpolicyframedintermsofneo-liberalismandcompetitive
electoralpolyarchy.Insuchaunion,formalwarsbetweenmemberstatescannottake
place.InkeepingwiththeinstitutionalarrangementsoftheEU,newstateshadtoconform
to31chapters(35since2013)oftheAcquiswhichrangeoverthewholeareaofeconomic
andpoliticallife.ForeignanddefencepolicymustalsobeinkeepingwithEUnormsand
policy.Asacustomsunion,theEUhascommontariffswithoutsiders.Thedrivingforces
forexpansionareeconomicinterestsseekingmarkets(forproductsandlabour)aswellas
geo-politicalconcerns.

TheCaseofUkraine

AfterthedismantlingoftheUSSR,Ukrainefounditselfpositionedbetweentwoblocs-the
stronglyentrenchedEUandtheweakassociationformedbytheCommonwealthof
IndependentStates.Asshowninthetwofollowingdiagrams,commercewasgreater
betweenRussiathantheEuropeanUnion.

UkrainiangovernmentshavesoughtagreementswiththeEUwhichwouldnotprejudice
relationswithitsmajortradingpartner,Russia.ThingsbegantochangeaftertheOrange
RevolutionwhichbroughttopowerPresidentYushchenko.Theleadersoftheproposed
EurasianUnionsoughttomaintainandenhancelinkswithUkrainewhichwouldhave
precludedUkrainefromjoiningtheEU.Intheautumnof2013theEU,tocounterEurasian
influence,offeredUkraineanassociationagreement(DeepandComprehensiveFreeTrade
Area(DCFTA)).TobeeffectivetheagreementwouldhaveextendedtheEU'stariffsto
Ukraine'sbordersandconsequentlywouldhavegreatlyrestrictedtradewiththeCIS.

TheDCFTApresentedUkrainewithachoice.ItwascontendedbytheEUthattwosetsof
rulescouldnotoperateintheEUeconomicspace[9].Russianpolicy,basingtheargument
oncommonmembershipoftheWTO,contendedthatboththeEUandtheEurasianUnion
wouldbeableforgeawiderpan-Europeanassociation.SergeiLavrov,theRussianForeign
Ministersuggestedthatbothblocscouldworktogether.'Wemustworkforaunionof
unions,anallianceoftheEUandtheEurasianUnion'[10].

TheEU'sobjectivewastoprepareUkraineforfullmembership(atsomeunspecifiedfuture
date).Moreover,evenwithoutbecomingamemberoftheEU,agreementsbetweenitand
otherstateswereincreasinglyembeddedinconditionswhichsoughttomaketheir
institutionsandprocessescompatiblewithEUnorms.Theseconditionsweredefinedin
termsofWashingtonConsensusideology-freemarkets,privateproperty,theruleoflaw
(particularlyconcerningproperty),multi-partypoliticsandelectoralcompetition.EUstrategy
istoweakengraduallythesovereigntyofstatesandtopromotethepoweroftheUnionover
its'memberstates'.TheEasternPartnershipwasadevicetoextendthepoweroftheEU
overthirdparties,thistimedrivenbythegeo-politicalinterestsoftheEUandconsistentwith
AmericanpowerwieldedthroughNATO.Theobjectivesweretobeachievedthrough
enlargement.

NegotiationsbetweenPresidentYanukovichandtheEuropeanUnionwereconductedon
thebasisoftheDCFTA.WhileYanukovichdidnotruleoutsigningtheagreementatsome
futuredate,on29November2013,heexpressedawishtoachieveanagreementwhich
wouldmaintainrelationswithRussia.FutureanticipateddamagetoUkrainianproducers
(supportingYanukovich),insufficientEUfinancialbackingforeconomicreforms,aswellas
promisedRussianfinancialsupportunderlayhisdecisiontowithdrawfromtheEU
proposal.

ThisbecamethefusefortheMaidandemonstrationsinfavourofEUmembership
supportedonthestreetsinpersonbysomeprominentUSandEuropeanpoliticians.EU
madeUkrainechoose,whenYanukovichdidnottaketherightdecision,theEUsupported
theoppositionoftheMaidantomakethedecision.Thedemonstrationturnedtoviolence
andthePresident'sandParliament'sbuildingswereoccupiedbythearmedopposition.The
EUsupportedthethenopposition(whichhadrefusedtoparticipateinagovernmentwhen
offeredpostsinit).Theirgoalwastoinstallthepro-EUoppositionforces.President
YanukovichfledforhislifefromKievon22February2014.Thecontextofarmeduprising,of
intimidationofpro-YanukovichdeputiesintheRadaandaswellastheillegalseizureof
powerleadsonetodefinethechangeofpoliticalpowerasacoupd'tatlegitimatedby
massdemonstrations.

FollowingtheflightofPresidentYanukovich,anewpro-EUnationalistgovernmentwas
installed.OntheonesideitsignedagreementswiththeEU,ontheotheritwasconfronted
bythesecessionofCrimeaandcivilwarintheeasternterritories.

WesternmediaexplaintheunderlyingcausesofUkraine'sbreak-upasaconsequenceof
Putin'spolicies.Suchaninterpretationofevents,derivedmainlyfromstatementsoriginating
intheKievproEuropeanUnionlobbiesandgovernment,canbedismissedorqualifiedin
manyrespects.

ThereisnoevidencebeforetheputschreplacingtheYanukovichgovernmentinUkraine
thatthepolicyoftheRussianFederationwastodestabilisethecountry.Duringthistimethe
Russianminoritysufferedlanguagediscrimination.IntheperiodfollowingtheOrange
Revolutionof2004,inwhichtheadministrationofYushchenkomovedclosertotheEU,as
wellastheperiodinwhichtheYanukovichadministrationintendedtosignanassociation
agreementwiththeEU,therewerenoactionsfromRussiadestabilisingUkraine.The
economicconsequences,however,mighthavehadadestabilisingeffect.Indeed,therewas
nodesignationbythemediaofa'corrupt'PresidentYanukovichwhenhewaspredisposed
tosigntheassociationagreement.

TheUkrainiancivilwarwasprecipitatedbytheillegalremovalofYanukovichandhis
governmentfollowingtheputschofFebruarywhichinstalledagovernmenthostileto
Yanukovich'ssupportersconcentratedintheindustrialRussianspeakingeastofthe
country.Theirinitialactions,particularlyrescindingthelanguagelaws,whichhadgiventhe
righttoregionsundercertainconditionstousetheRussianlanguage,strengthenedthe
separatistswhoassertedtheirownpowerinCrimeaandledtoarevoltinDonbassand
Lugansk.

These'anti-Kiev'movementsweresupportedbytheRussianFederationbuttheywerenot
partofaplannedpolicyto'destabilise'Ukraine.Ukrainebecamedestabilisedbytheactions
ofthepro-EUinsurgentswhohadillegallyreplacedtheelectedPresidentwithActing
PresidentAlexTurchinov.DespiteWesterninsistenceonRussianmilitaryinvolvement,
thereisnofirmevidenceoftheinvolvementoftheRussianarmy(thoughtherecertainly
were,andare,volunteers)ineastUkraineinarmedcombatroles.OnJan292015,the
headoftheGeneralStaffoftheUkrainianArmy,GeneralViktorMuzhenko,statedthat"only
individualRussianmilitarypersonnelandcitizensoftheRussianFederation"are
participatinginmilitaryactivities."Wearenotcurrentlyconductinganymilitaryoperations
againstunitsoftheregularRussianarmy."[11]SuchunofficialRussianinvolvementis
considerableandhasbeendecisiveinmaintainingtheseparatists.Itisnothoweverpartof
apreconceivedRussian'plan'todestabiliseUkraineandNATO.

TheofficiallineofnewlyelectedPresidentPoroshenkowastopursuewarbyallmeans.As
heputitinhisstatementof14November2014:"We[inUkraine]willhaveworkthey-[in
Donbas]won't.Wewillhavepensions-theywon't.Wewillcareforourchildrenand
pensioners-theywon't.Ourchildrenwillgotoschool,tokindergartens-theirchildrenwill
sitincellars.Theydon'tknowhowtoorganizeordoanything.This,ultimately,ishowwe
willwinthiswar."[12]Herepeatedhisobdurateprincipleson22January2015:'Ukraine
mustremainaunitarystatetherewillbe"nodiscussion"ofUkraine'sEuropeanchoiceand
theonlystatelanguageisandwillbeUkrainian'.[13]

AMilitaryThreat?

NATO'sexpansiontotheeastwaslegitimatedinthefirstinstanceasameanstosecurean
areaofpeaceinEurope,notasanecessarydefencemechanismagainstanaggressive
Russia.However,followingtheUkrainecrisis,viewschanged.AndersRasmussen,NATO's
previoussecretary-general,saidinJanuary2015thattherewasa'highprobability'thatMr
PutinwouldtestNATO'sarticle5,whichregardsanattackonanymemberasanattackon
all.On20February2015,NATO'sdeputycommanderopinedthatRussia'sexpansionist
ambitionscouldbecome'anobviousexistentialthreattoourwholebeing'.(ReportedinThe
Guardian21Feb.15).

Thegeo-politicalgoalsofstrengtheningthehegemonyofNATOunderpinthispolicy.The
Russianmilitary'threat'isanassertionabout'motives'andisnotbasedempiricallyonany
assessmentofmilitarycapacity.Russiaasamilitarythreatisillustratedbycommentators
bythefactthatitsdefencespendinghasrisenby190percentbetween2007and2014,
whereasNATO'shasfallenbysome20percent(TheEconomist,14Feb2015,p.20).

Russia'sdefenceexpenditurehasincreasedinrecentyears.Buttheincreasewasfroma
lowbase.Giventhesizeofpopulationandtheeconomiclevelofthecountry,comparatively
itsdefenceexpenditurepercapitaisnotexcessivelylarge.Intotaloutlays,Russiais
outmatchedineveryareaofdefencespendingbyNATO.In2014,accordingtostatistics
providedintheTheMilitaryBalance[14],defencebudgetsforRussiawasjustover10per
centmorethanthatoftheUK.ItsdefenceeffortsarecomparabletoWesternEuropean
NATOcountries.Plannedexpenditure(2015)forUSAis581billionUSdollarsChina129.4
Russia70UK61.8France53.1Germany43.9.Asaproportionofstatebudgets(datafor
2014),theUSAaccountedfor36.1percent,Russia4.4percent,UK3.8percent,France
3.3percent,Germany2.7percent,otherNATOcountries7.6percent.China8percent
andJapan3percent.

NATO'sweaponryisalsogreaterinallareasthanRussiaandEurasia,onlyChinahas
morebattletanksthanNATO.Atellingcomparativeindicatoristheamountspentexpressed
asaproportionofworlddefenceandsecurityspendingwhichisshowninFigure3.If
armaments'spendingisthecriterion,thenexpenditureisverymuchweightedtowardsthe
WestwithNATOgreatlyoutspendingitsrivals.Ofcourse,Russiaisanuclearpowerand
certainlymorethanamatchforitsimmediateneighboursbutnotforNATO.

Itispurespeculation(probablymotivatedtojustifyNATO'smilitaryrole)tosuggestthat
PutinisplanningtotestNATO'sresolve.Despitethedenialofcitizenshiprightstoa
significantpartofRussianspeakingpeoplebornandlivinginLatviaandEstonia,Russia
sincetheBalticsgainedindependence,hasshownnointentionorwillingnesstosupportthe
Russianminoritiesbytheuseofforce.

TheenlargementoftheEUandNATOaredangerousiftheythreatenwarbetweenRussia
andUkraine.AfundamentalvalueoftheEUistosecurepeaceandtherearewaysofdoing
thiswithoutexpandingtheUnion.Itisunjustifiablehypocrisytoadvocatepeaceand
knowinglytopursuepolicieswhichthreatentoleadtowar.Clearlyalternativestrategies
wereavailabletotheEU.ButtheywereignoredastheentrapmentofUkraineintheEUwas
amajorobjectiveofEUpolicy.EUenlargementandNATOexpansionaregreaterthreatsto
peacethantheRussianFederation.

ThisarticleisbasedontwopubliclecturesgiveninLeidenUniversityandalsoinGreenwich
University.

[returntoContents]

#28
RussiaBeyondtheHeadlines
www.rbth.ru
December22,2015
Russiaavoidsrevolutionagain
NaysayersarekeentopredictRussia'sdemise,butdespiteadifficultyearpoliticallyand
economically,thecountryhasfailedtofallapart.
ByBryanMacDonald
BryanMacDonaldisaMoscow-basedcommentator.

Foratleastthepastdecade,everyyearsomeexpertinsideoroutsideofRussiahas
predictedthatthecountrywilleruptinrevolution,oratleastthatitisripefor"regime
change."Numerousbooksandarticlesarepublishedannuallyspecializinginforecastsof
imminentdoomfortheKremlin.

Startingin2014analystsbegantolookforsignsofthisrevolutioninthecountry'seconomic
troubles.Lastyear,BritishPrimeMinister,DavidCameron,spokeof"turn(ing)theratchet"
onVladimirPutinandsuggestedthatWesternsanctionswould"permanently"damage
Russia'sfinancialhealth.

Thistrendonlycontinuedin2015.InJanuary,U.S.PresidentBarackObamadeclaredthe
Russianeconomy"intatters"andinSeptember,CNNreportedthatRussia'seconomywas
"failing."Justthismonth,oppositionfigureMikhailKhodorkovskywarnedthatarevolutionis
"inevitable"inRussia.

However,despitethewarnings,thecountrysomehowmanagestogoon.

Whatrevolution?

In2015,therewerenumerouspotentialtriggersforapoliticalbreakdown.Themurderof
prominentoppositionvoiceBorisNemtsovincentralMoscowinFebruarywasone.It
producedprevailingsadnessatthehorribleendofthispublicfigure,butlittleelse.
Anotherflashpointcouldhavebeenthiswinter'sprotestsbylong-haultruckers,whichhave
threatenedtoblockmajorroadsacrossthecountry.Butsofartheirdispleasurehas
remainedconfinedtoasmalldisruptionoftrafficonMoscow'sringroadandaverycalm
meetingwithpolice.

TheblackoutofCrimeamighthavesparkedrestlessnessonthepeninsula,whichRussia
absorbedlastyear,buttherewashardlyapeepofvitriolagainstMoscow.

ThepublicationofdocumentsbynewspaperNovayaGazetaandoppositionactivistAlexei
NavalnyaccusingProsecutorGeneralYuriChaika'sfamilyofbeinginvolvedindeep-seated
corruptioncouldhavecausedsomerage.Chaika'ssonhasbeenlinkedtothemafiaand
reportedlyownsexpensivehomesinSwitzerlandandGreece.Thegeneralpublic,however,
seemstoacceptofficialreassurancesthatChaikahimselfisnotinvolvedinanyillegalacts
andtheinvestigationistheproductofdirtypoliticalintrigues.

Thenthereisthecurrencycrisis.Lastyear,adollarwaswortharound35rublesnowit's
around70.ManyRussianshavelostmuchoftheirsavings.Opportunitiestotravelabroad
havebeensnatchedawayandimportedgoodshavemoreorlessdoubledinprice.Inflation
standsataround19percentand6millionpeopleareexpectedtofalloutofthemiddle
class,whichhasbeenthemainstayofPutin'spersonalpopularitythenumberofRussians
livingbelowthepovertylinehasrisento14percent.

Adifferentreality

Andyetnoneoftheseissueshasprovokedcomprehensiveprotestsorpopularresistance
tothegovernment.Instead,recentopinonpolldatafromtheanalyticalLevadaCenter
showsthat,ratherthanhurtlingintodisarray,Russiaisactuallyprettystable.Morethan80
percentofRussiansbelievethatRussiancitizenshipispreferabletoanyother,andtwo-
thirdsconsiderthemselves"free'."Fifty-sevenpercenthopetoseePutinre-electedto
anotherpresidentialtermin2018.

Thereasonsforsuchcalmareprettyelementary.Firstly,themixedresultsofUkraine's
revolutionandthedramaticcollapseinlivingstandardstherehasspookedRussians.They
genuinelyfearthatviolentupheavalcouldleadtoarepeatofthechaosofthe1990s.

Anotherproblemistheweaknessoftheliberalopposition.Sure,theKremlinmakeslife
toughforitsopponents.StateTVdoesn'tacknowledgethemtoagreatextentandofficial
newspaperslargelyignorethem.However,theInternetisopen,andliberalDozhdTVand
EkhoMoskvyradioallowsoppositionfigurestoexpresstheirviews.Butthemainobstacle
istheirlackofunityandthedeepfracturesintheliberalmovement,inadditiontoalackofa
clearleaderandaspecificpolicyplatform.

Instead,theoppositionoffershopesanddreamswithnotangibleexplanationsofhowthey
mightactuallyworkandwhowoulddirectthepolicies.Furthermore,leadingpersonalities,
withtheexceptionofNavalnyandafewothers,seemtospendmoretimecourtingforeign
attentionthandomesticaudiences.

ThenthereisPutin'sgenuinepersonalpopularityandabeliefthat,nomatterhowbadthings
arepresently,Russiahasimprovedimmenselyduringthe15yearsthathehasbeenin
power.

ManyRussianswhospendtimeabroadspeakofalmostenteringaparalleluniversewhen
theycompareWesternmediacoverageofRussiaandtheirownpracticalexperiencesat
home.MostRussianswouldneverclaimtheircountryisperfectbyanymeasure,butthey
dolargelybelievethatforeignimpressionsofRussiaarefartoonegative.Withoutquestion,
thesearechallengingtimesinRussia,butthepeoplearealreadyaccustomedtoupheaval
anddon'tseemtobepanicing.Therevolutionhasbeenpostponed.Again.

[returntoContents]

#29
MoscowTimes
October21,2015
WestHasLosttheRighttoLecturePutin
ByMarkGaleotti
MarkGaleottiisprofessorofglobalaffairsatNewYorkUniversity.

Whileathome,PresidentVladimirPutinistheworld-bestridingcolossus,wisetsarand
benevolentfatherofthenation,abroadheisonceagainfacingafamiliarvilification,as
warmonger,kleptocratandtyrant.Yes,corruptionisdeeplyembeddedinRussia's
economicandpoliticalsystems,andtheKremlinregardsmilitaryforceasaninstrumentof
nationalinterest.ButtheWestneedstoavoidsimpleandmisleadingstereotypesifitisto
constructeffectivepoliciestodealwithRussia,especiallywhenitcomestoitsSyrian
gambit.

Ofcourse,Russia'sinvolvementinSyriaembarrassedaboveallWashington.Sofar
Russia'sairstrikeshaveestablishedMoscow'sclaimstobetakenseriouslyasaglobal
power,anddonesoinawaydemonstratingnotjustmilitarypowerbutalsoruthlesswill.

ButWesterncomplaintsaboutRussianactions-aboveallPutin's-alsorevealadangerous
hypocrisy.

"RussiahasnomandatetobeinSyria."Howeverunpleasant,BasharAssad'sisstillthe
internationallyrecognizedgovernmentofSyria-withanembassyinWashington-andthey
invitedRussianassistance.IfanythingitisTurkey,theU.S.andtheotherbelligerentswho
actuallyhavenomandate,anditwouldbeastretchtoportraytheiractionsasdirectly
humanitarian.

Tobesure,iftheAssadregimefellitmightbereplacedbyonelessbrutalandmore
legitimate.Butthenagain,experiencesofothermilitaryregimechangesinNorthAfricaand
theMiddleEastsuggestthattheresultcouldjustaseasilybechaosandextremistterror.

"TheRussiansarebombingthe'wrong'rebels."Apartfromthefactthatmanyofthe
"moderaterebels"toutedasSyria'sgreathopearenotthatmoderate,Moscowmakesno
bonesaboutthefactthatitistryingtopreservetheAssadregime,oneofitsfewallies.
IslamicStateforcesaremoreheavilyconcentratedinthenortheastofthecountry,the
regimeinthewestandthesouth.Nowondermostoftheairstrikestargettherebelsposing
adirectandimmediatethreattoDamascus.

"Moscowisacting'dangerously,'potentiallybringingRussianandWesternjetsintoclose
proximity."Yes,thereisafaintrisk,especiallyastheRussiansaremoreaggressivethan
Syrianpilots.Forexample,eveniftheirincursionsintoTurkishairspacewereindeed
accidental,astheyclaimed,thentheycertainlymusthavebeenprettycloseforsucha
mistaketohappen.ButgiventhatU.S.andalliedaircrafthavelesslegalrighttobeinSyrian
airspace,istheonusnotonthemto"deconflict"?

OfcoursetheRussiansareinSyriaforthemostself-interestedofreasons,nottoprotect
Syriancivilians,norprimarilyanally,buttodistractadomesticaudiencefromstalematein
theDonbassandforcetheWesttodealwiththem.TheSyrianregimeisbrutaltothepoint
ofevil,andjustbecausetheIslamicStatemaybeworse,Putinhasnoseriousmoral
justification.

Butsincewhenhasself-interestbeenanoveltyingeopolitics?

HowdoesfuelingalengthyandviciousproxywaragainstbothAssadandtheIslamicState
helpordinarySyrians,though,especiallywhensomanyoftheWest'salliesinthis
campaign,fromTurkeytoSaudiArabia,haveserioushumanrightsproblemsoftheirown?

Thisisnotsimple"whataboutism,"thatclassictrickofdeflectingcriticismthroughraising
theotherside'srealorallegedflaws.RatheritistonotethatWashingtoniscurrently
seekingtohaveitscakeandeatit.Itcanchoosetobaseitsforeignpolicyonstrictmoral
principlesorgeopoliticalpragmatism.

Atpresent,itseemshappytoactpragmaticallybutthinkmorally.Thusitgenuinely
considersPutinnotsimplyanantagonist,butanimmoralone.

Thisisdangerousandfoolish.JustasPutin'sRussiacannotsimplybewrittenoffasa
kleptocracy-roadsarestillbeingbuilt,universitiesfunded,andsoforth,evenwhilesome
plunder-sotooitisnotsomeuniquelyaggressive"roguestate."Castigatingitonmoral
grounds,withoutbehavinginanunimpeachablymoralway,issimplygoingtoalienate
Moscow,undermineWesterncredibility,andcreateawhollyfalseseriesofassumptionson
whichtobasepolicy.

TheuncomfortabletruthisthatinSyria,asinsomanyotherways,Putinissimplyruthlessly
exploitingandexpandingprecedentsalreadysetbytheWest.

[returntoContents]

#30
Journalitico
http://journalitico.com
March8,2015
TheProblemWithPropaganda
ByDanielleRyan
Reporter,TheSundayBusinessPost(Ireland).DanielleisanIrishjournalistandblogger.
ShehasadegreeinBusinessandGermanfromTrinityCollegeDublinandstudiedpolitical
reportingattheWashingtonCenterforPoliticsandJournalisminWashington,DC.

Whatispropaganda?

Isitthedeliberateexclusionofcrucialinformationinanattempttomislead?Isitthe
deliberateinclusionofinformationinanattempttoconfuse?Isitadeliberateattemptnot
necessarilytomislead,buttoputforthaperspectivewhichdiffersfromthemainstream?Is
itsimplyoutrightlying?

Orisitalloftheabove?

IsitheretryingtoidentifyonemainstreamnewspaperorbroadcasterthatIcould
legitimatelyandconfidentlyarguedoesnotengageinthiselusivephenomenonwecall
'propaganda'-byanyoftheabovedefinitions.

Icallit'elusive'becausenooneseemstohavesettledthedebateonitsmeaning-orat
least,iftheyhave,it'snotthemeaningtheyareusinginpractice.

Inthisso-called'informationwar'between'theWest'andRussiaoverthecrisisinUkraine,
asimple,butdangerousdefinitionseemstohavedeveloped:Propagandaisthe
disseminationofinformationthatprovidesanylegitimacytotheargumentsoftheenemy.

Thatappearstobetheacceptedmeaningofthewordintoday'sgeopoliticalclimate.The
interestingthingaboutthisdefinitionisthatthetruenessorfalsenessoftheinformationin
questionisirrelevant.Ifitlegitimizestheothersideinanyway,itispropaganda.

Neithersidewilladmitthatthisisthedefinitiontheyareusing,ofcourse.Thatwould
undoubtedlydamagetheircredibility.Instead,bothsideswillsticktothemantrathat
propagandasimplymeansthedeliberatedistributionof'lies'andwillclaimthattheyare
fightingagainstthoseliarswiththeirincontrovertible'truth'.

Thatmakesbothsidesfeelbetter,andmorejustified.Peoplewanttobelievetheycan
'know'thingsintheirentirety.Tonotbeabletograspthecomplexitiesoftheworldmakesus
feeloutofcontrol.

Butinusingthisdefinitionofpropagandaas'anythingtheenemysays'weareleftin
somewhatofaconundrumwhenitcomestounravelingthe'truth'.

WhenRussiaputsforwarditsargumentsandtheyareechoedbyjournalistsoranalysts
whoaresympathetictothosearguments,forwhateverreason,thosewritersare
immediatelybrandedas'Kremlintrolls'orpropagandistsforVladimirPutin.

Similarly,whentheWestputsforthitsarguments,theyaredismissedbyRussianpressas
'anti-Russianpropaganda'.

So,whoisright?Whichinformationis'propaganda'andwhichisn't?Isitsimplyall
propaganda?Dobothsideshavelegitimatearguments?Isonesidemore'right'thanthe
other?Andhowcanweknow,ifeverypieceofinformationthatconflictsfromthe
mainstreamgetslabeledaspropaganda,regardlessifitsoriginoritsfactualaccuracy?

Toansweranyofthosequestions,wewouldneedanaccepteddefinitionfortheword,with
whichwecouldevaluateeveryscrapofinformationpresentedbybothsidesandcomeup
withanobjective'truth'.

Whatareouroptions?

TheOxfordEnglishDictionarydefinespropagandaas:"information,especiallyofabiased
ormisleadingnature,usedtopromoteapoliticalcauseorpointofview".

CateHaste,inTheMachineryofPropaganda,definesitas"thetaskofcreatingand
directingpublicopinion".

TheRandomHousedictionarydefinesitas"information,ideas,orrumorsdeliberately
spreadwidelytohelporharmaperson,group,movement,institution,nation,etc."

Intheirbook,AgeofPropaganda,AnthonyPratkanisandElliotAronsonwritethat
propagandawas"originallydefinedasthedisseminationofbiasedideasandopinions,often
throughtheuseofliesanddeception"...butcontinuetosaythatthewordhassinceevolved
tomeanmass"suggestion"or"influence"throughthemanipulationofsymbolsandthe
psychologyoftheindividual.

Noneofthatisparticularlyhelpful,isit?

Thosedefinitionsdon'tansweranyoftheabovequestions.Alltheyrevealisthatbothsides
engageinserious,no-holds-barredpropagandaefforts,whichwealreadyknew.

Atthispoint,ifwehavenoaccepteddefinition-andifdefinitionsareuselessanyway-it
comesdowntodecidingwhatourgoalisinusingtheterm.

Ifourgoalistodiscredittheothersideinadebate,wewillhappilyuseanyoftheabove
definitions,failingtorecognizewhentheycanbeappliedtoourselves.

Ifthegoalhowever,istocometoanuancedunderstandingofwhatishappeninginUkraine,
wewouldbelessinclinedtousethewordatall,atleastnotsoflippantly.

Wewouldrecognizethatdefiningeverythingthatgoesagainstourownperceivedbest
interestsas'propaganda'isitselfaformofpropaganda-onethatwon'tresultinany
progresswhatsoever.

Itwillsimplyleavebothsidesinstalemate.

Inotherwords,propagandaworks,butaccusingsomeoneofusingittomaskyourownbias
isgenerallyuseless,ifyourintentionistomakeanyrealprogress.It'sourstaggering
propensitytodojustthatwhichhasbeenoneof,ifnotthebiggesthindrancetodiplomatic
progressonUkraine.

Atthispoint,Ican'tconcealthefactthatIbelievetheWesternsidehasbeentheworse
offenderinthis.

WhentheUSStateDepartmentflingsthe'propaganda'grenadeattheKremlineverytimeit
hearsacounter-argument,theyareeffectivelyrelievingthemselvesoftheresponsibilityto
think.Theyaredemonstratinghowentrenchedtheyhavebecomeintheirpositionsand
showingusthattheyhavenointentionofbudging.

Theyareentirelyunreceptivetothelegitimateconcernsofthosewithadifferent
perspective.Theyhavedemonstratedthattheywilldonothingtoalleviatethefearsofa
nationthatfeelsunderthreat-andhaveengagedinamassiveinformationcampaignto
discreditthosefearsasnonsense.

GiventhehistoryofthelastfifteenyearsandthenumerousUSforeignpolicymistakes
legitimizedthroughgroupthink,thatentrenchmentshouldbeworrying.

Battlingcognitivedissonance

Ifwe,asconsumersofnewsandasjournalists,failtoproperlyscrutinizethat,werunthe
riskofsimilarlybarricadingourselvesbehindourin-builtbiasesbecauseitmakesusfeel
stronger-andlook,somanypeopleagree,wemustberight.
Humanstendtobelievethattheargumentstheyhavechosen-basedontheirownself-
interest,astheybestunderstandit-arealsothebestthingfortheworldatlarge.Tobelieve
anythingelse,formostpeople,wouldseemillogical.

Ashumans,wealsogenerallydon'tenjoytheunpleasantnessofcognitivedissonance,so
wetrytoavoidit.Wedon'twanttohavetodealwithtoomuchconflictinginformation.We've
pickedasideinanargumentandthat'stheendofit.

Thisleadstowhatpsychologistscall'motivatedreasoning',wherebywewillcherry-pick
informationandsubconsciouslyeliminateanythingthatchallengesourargumenttoodeeply.

So,whatcanwedoaboutit?

Firstofall,thisnodoubt,isthepointatwhichyouwillaccusemeofbeingahypocrite.But
restassured,Iagreewithyou.Weallusemotivatedreasoning,andtotellourselveswe
don'tissimplyself-delusion.Theproblemis,someofuscanbetterrecognizewhenwe're
doingitandsomeofuscan't.

Forinstance,IcantellyouthatI'mdoingitrightnow.I'maskingyoutoreconsideryour
opinionandadoptsomethingsimilartomyown.That'stotallyhypocritical,isn'tit?Itis,butit
doesn'tmeanyoustillshouldn'tconsiderit.AndIshoulddothesame.

DrDavidRobertGrimes,asciencewriterandphysicistatOxfordUniversitywroteina
piecefortheIrishTimeslastyear,thatratherthanviewingconflictingconceptswith
apprehensionandcontempt,weshouldregardthemwiththe"exhilarationofdiscovery".

Admittedly,it'shighlydoubtfulthatanyonereadingthisisgoingtobe"exhilarated"atthe
prospectofchangingtheirmindonUkraine-aconflictwhichelicitssuchstrongemotion
fromsomany.Ihavealreadyoncechangedmymindonit-fromanentrenchedWestern
perspectivetodevelopingadeeperunderstandingandsympathytotheRussian
perspective.I'msureothershavegoneintheoppositedirection.

Itwasnotanexhilaratingprocess.

AnaerialviewshowsIndependenceSquareduringclashesbetweenanti-government
protestersandInteriorMinistrymembersandriotpoliceincentralKiev

Grimesalsowroteinhispiece:

"Thereisnothingwrongwithbeingwrong,providedwearewillingtoadaptourviewsinthe
lightofevidenceandconstantlyrevisethem.Black-and-whitethinkingcanbechallengedby
noticingthattherearemorethanjustbinarypositionsonissuesorpeople,andaspectrum
liesbetweenthoseextrema.

"Thebladeofcorrectionshouldcutbothwaysweshouldaimtospotreasoningflawsnot
onlyintheargumentsofothersbutalsoinourownlogic,evenwhenthisjarsus."

Theinabilityofourleaders-andmoredisappointingly,ourjournalists,todothis,isexactly
whynotmuchprogresshasbeenmadeinUkraine.

Journalists,bytheirverynature,strivetounderstandtheworld.It'swhattheydo.Theyare
interestedandcurious.Theylivebyaskingquestionsinthehopethatthey'llfindanswers.
Individualjournalistsareveryrarelytryingtobe'propagandists'orliarsforanyone.

Unfortunately,theyarealsohuman-andthat'swhereitgetscomplicated.Theworldistoo
complextounderstandinitsentirety,sotheyhavetofocusonlittlenuggetshereandthere.
Andifthe'otherside'islyingoutright-asbothsometimesdo-weshout'Look,theother
sideislying!'becauseitmakesusfeelgood.

Itvalidatesusandallowsustofeeljustifiedinnotadmittingthatmaybewehavedoneit,too.
Thatmaybewehavenotalwaysbeenasrightandnobleaswedesperatelywanttobelieve
wehave.Thatmaybeifwecanfocusonthe'lies'oftheotherside,wecanstaymore
dedicatedtothe'truth'andthattoomakesusfeelgood.

WeareroutinelybombardedwithstoriesaboutUkraineandRussiathatdon'tgiveusthefull
picture.Eachauthorwillomitinformationtheyfeelisnotrelevantorcrucial.Butwhatis
crucialtoonesidemayseeminconsequentialtotheother.It'salljournalism,andbythe
definitionsusedearlier,yes,it'sall'propaganda'.

Buttherehastobearightandwrong,doesn'tthere?

Rightandwrongoftenexistonlyinsofaraspeople'sperceptionsofasituationallowthem
tounderstandit-andlikeitornot,thisisalotaboutperception.

Bothsidesmustbechallengedrelentlessly-withevidence,incontrovertiblefactand
perhapsmostimportantly,adecent,honestattempttounderstandotherhuman
perspectives.

Bothsideshavefailedatthis,butIbelievetheWesternsidehasfailedworse,astheysay.

Itdoesn'thelptolabelRussiansasblinddogs,theentireRussianmediaaspropagandists
andVladimirPutinasanevildictatorthatwouldgiveAdolfHitlerarunforhismoney.That's
acop-outandquitefrankly,it'slazy.

Themainstreamviewisfrequentlytheviewthatneedsmostrigorouschallenging,because
ithasoftenachievedthatprevalencethroughgroupthinkandaformofWesternpropaganda
thatismoreinsidioussimplybecauseitisoftennotrecognizedassuch.

TheprevailingmainstreamviewisthatRussiaiswrong,isaprovocateurandhas'invaded'
Ukraineundertheleadershipofan'expansionist'anddangerouspresident.Theminority
view-andtheoneIshare-isthatinfactNATOhasbeentheprovocateurandthattheUS
isleadingEuropetowardsinstabilitytosuititsownpurposes.

Thereisamisconceptionthattheprevailingviewisthecorrectview,simplybecauseso
manypeopleholdit.Thesecondmisconceptionisthatonesideisentirelyrightandone
sideisentirelywrong-andwithinthat,thethe'enemy's'sidehasonlybadintentions.

Ourleaderswoulddowelltoridthemselvesofbothmisconceptionsifanyprogressistobe
madeforthepeopleofEasternUkraine.

Fairytaleorreality?

InafascinatingpieceaboutthebordercityofNarva,Estonia-aplacewhichIjustrecently
passedthroughmyself-journalistMarkMacKinnonintroducesustoElviraNyman.

The77-year-oldgazesacrosstheNarvaRiver,whichseparatestheEstoniancityfrom
Russia,the"strongcountry".

Elviralivesinaworldthathasbeen"createdforher"byKremlin-controlledtelevision,
MacKinnonwrites.Inhermind,theWestholdstheblameforthecrisisinUkraine,Crimea
wasalwaysRussiaandPutinisaleadertoberespected.

Exceptthatthisisnotjustinhermind-it'saviewheldbyplentywhoaren't'underthe
influence'ofRussianTV-andit'saninsulttoputtheentirelifeexperienceofethnic
RussiansintheformerSovietRepublicsdowntosomefairytalewhichhasbeen
manufacturedfortheminMoscow.

TheRussianworldexists.ItisnotacreationofPutin'sRussiaasapreludetoan
expansionistadventure.Theirnarrativehasbeencreatedforthembyhistory-andTallinn-
controlledTVcoulddonomoretochangethatthanKremlin-controlledTVcouldtocreateit.

Inaround-aboutway,MacKinnonadmitsthislaterinthepiece.Hequotesarepresentative
ofNarva'smunicipalgovernment,whosaysit's"toosimple"toblameRussianTVforwhy
somanyinthecityfeelalienatedbytheEstonianstate.

"TheywonderwhythestreetsignsintheircityareonlyinEstonianwhenjust4percentof
residentscallittheirfirstlanguage,"hesays."Andtheyhatethesanctionsthatare
destroyingbusinesstieswiththeRussianFederationacrosstheriver."

Thesolutionisnottoapproachthesepeoplewithblindself-righteousnessandbatterthem
overtheheadwiththe"right"worldviewuntiltheyseesense.
 WesternpropagandaisnottheantidotetoRussianpropaganda.

Grimes,theOxfordphysicist,endedhispiecewiththisline:

"Weshouldfeelzeroshameinrevisingourpositionsinthelightofnewevidenceor
understanding.Thisishowprogressismade."

Ican'thelpbutthinkweallmightbebetteroffifwetrieditmoreoften.

[returntoContents]

Forwardemail

Thisemailwassenttojohn.besemeres@anu.edu.aubydavidjohnson@starpower.net|
RapidremovalwithSafeUnsubscribe|Aboutourserviceprovider.

Johnson'sRussiaList|6368CircleDrive|Chincoteague|VA|23336
 From: JohnBDunlop<jbdunlop@stanford.edu>
Senttime: 12/19/201501:00:32PM
To: martin.dewhirst@gmail.com
Cc: robertotto25@gmail.com
FW:[SATAFTERNOON/ESTITEMSTONOTE---RICHLODE][JohnD]Fwd:"RussianCONTRACTORSwerekilledinSyria,"WSJ,12/19-20,p.
Subject:
A8.....[MichaelG]TheRU-DE'Technolohiya'UsedtoCircumventSanctions........[BP]PolishreportonRussianwarcrimesinDo...

From:WalterZaryckyj[mailto:waz2102@caa.columbia.edu]
Sent:Saturday,December19,201512:03PM
Subject:Fwd:[SATAFTERNOON/ESTITEMSTONOTE---RICHLODE][JohnD]Fwd:"RussianCONTRACTORSwerekilledinSyria,"WSJ,
12/19-20,p.A8.....[MichaelG]TheRU-DE'Technolohiya'UsedtoCircumventSanctions........[BP]PolishreportonRussianwarcrimesinDo...

----------Forwardedmessage----------
From:WalterZaryckyj<waz2102@caa.columbia.edu>
Date:Sat,Dec19,2015at2:59PM
Subject:[SATAFTERNOON/ESTITEMSTONOTE---RICHLODE][JohnD]Fwd:"RussianCONTRACTORSwerekilledin
Syria,"WSJ,12/19-20,p.A8.....[MichaelG]TheRU-DE'Technolohiya'UsedtoCircumventSanctions........[BP]Polishreporton
RussianwarcrimesinDonbas......[AFU]HILARIOUS:"TRUMPNAMESPUTINASHISRUNNINGMATE"
[Enjoy/Disseminate]........[CliffK]TrumpSeekstoMakeRussiaGreatAgain.......[WD]Meduza:Putin'slies----6ofthemost
outrageousuntruthsfromyesterday'spressconference........
To:RomaHadzewycz<staff@ukrweekly.com>,rl<romashka1@aol.com>

OnSat,Dec19,2015at1:40PM,JohnBDunlopwrote:

"RussianCONTRACTORSwerekilledinSyria,"WSJ,12/19-20,p.A8

AsmanyasnineRussiancontractorsdiedinOctoberwhenamortarroundhittheir
homebaseinWesternSyriaTheRussiangovernmenthasntacknowledgedtheir
deaths.TheRussianskilledinSyriabelongedtoaprivategroupcalledOSMThe
groupisknowninformallyasWagner,afterthenomdeguerreofitsleader,aformer
militaryintelligenceofficer

----------Forwardedmessage----------
From:MichaelGonchar<mi.gor17@gmail.com>
Date:Sat,Dec19,2015at12:03PM
Subject:Itmightbeinteresting
To:WalterZaryckyj<waz2102@caa.columbia.edu>,MykolaHryckowian<mykcusur@gmail.com>,wolodymyrzarycky
<wzarcusur@gmail.com>

ED:ARussian-GermanTale(inUkrainian):The'Technolohiya'ofCircumventingtheSanctions

http://gazeta.dt.ua/international/rosiysko-nimeckiy-nur-gesch-ft-abo-tehnologiya-obhodu-sankciy-_.html

--

Sincerelyyours
MichaelM.Gonchar
PresidentoftheCentreforGlobalStudies
STRATEGYXXI(Kyiv)
HeadoftheKyivInternationalEnergyQ-Club
+380444254162(KyivOffice)
+380989827278(UAGSM)
Office26,Shchekavytskastr.51
Kyiv,04071,Ukraine
http://geostrategy.org.ua

----------Forwardedmessage----------
From:BorysPotapenko<boryspotapenko@gmail.com>
Date:Sat,Dec19,2015at2:42PM
Subject:Fwd:PolishreportonRussianwarcrimesinDonbas
To:WalterZaryckyj<waz2102@caa.columbia.edu>,MykolaHryckowian<mykcusur@gmail.com>

Vlodko

Iknowyouaredown-under,butcanyougetthisouttoyouremaillist.[ED:NotinOzzie-landyet!!]

Borys

----------Forwardedmessage----------
From:NykolaiBilaniuk<em826@ncf.ca>
Date:Sat,Dec19,2015at2:33PM
Subject:PolishreportonRussianwarcrimesinDonbas
To:

RussianwarcrimesineasternUkrainein2014
http://www.donbasswarcrimes.org/report/
2015-12-1019:07
155pages

ReportinPDFFormatisavailablehere
http://www.donbasswarcrimes.org/wp-content/uploads/2015/12/Russian_War_Crimes_in_Eastern_Ukraine_in_2014.pdf

Summary

ThisreportdescribeswarcrimesinthemeaningofinternationallawcommittedineasternandsouthernUkrainebysoldiersandofficialsoftheRussianFederationandby
thepro-Russianseparatistfighters.Thecrimesdocumentedhereinincludeunlawfuldeprivationoffreedom,physicalandmentaltortures,robberyandmurders.

Chapters1through3areofanintroductorynature.Theydescribethemethodologyusedbytheauthorsofthereportandpresentthecircumstancesinwhichthe
subsequentlydetailedcrimeswerecommitted.
Thelocationsandtypesofthecrimesthatwerecommittedaswellastheirperpetratorsaredescribedinchapter4.Theauthorsdiscussonlythosecrimestheyweretold
aboutbythevictimsthereofduringthefieldresearch.Morethan60interviewsweregatheredinthecourseofcollectingthematerialsforthisreport.Eachactiondescribed
inchapter4isconfirmedbyaquotefromthetestimonyofoneormorevictims.

Chapter4isdividedintosubchaptersthatcorrespondtoeachofthevenueswherewarcrimeshavebeencommitted,asidentifiedbytheauthorsofthereport.Mostof
thosevenuesareineasternUkraine,oneinCrimeaandoneintheterritoryoftheRussianFederation,wheretheRussianarmybroughtUkrainianprisonersofwar.

Chapter5isacatalogueofperpetratorsofthecrimeswhowerementionedinthetestimoniesofthevictims,includingashortoverviewandreferencestothedescription
ofthevenueswherethecrimeswerebeingcommitted,andpictures.

Thevictimsarenotmentionedbynamebutbyanassigned"C"(case)codenamesandnumbers.Anypersonaldatathatcouldbeusedtoidentifythevictimsindirectly
suchas,forexample,pictures,havebeenincludedonlyifaspecificvictimagreedtothedisclosureofhisorheridentityandspokefreelyinthemedia.

BasedonthedocumentaryevidencedescribedinthereportacommunicationwillbesubmittedtotheInternationalCriminalCourtinTheHague.

ThisreportistheresultofexaminationsconductedbyagroupofvolunteersvolunteerscommissionnedbyaMemberofthePolishParliament,MatgorzataGosiewska.

----------Forwardedmessage----------
From:AndrewJFutey<ajfutey@ameritech.net>
Date:Sat,Dec19,2015at11:50AM
Subject:TRUMPNAMESPUTINASHISRUNNINGMATE
To:ZaryckyjWalter<waz2102@caa.columbia.edu>,HryckowianMykola<mykcusur@gmail.com>,PotapenkoBorys
<boryspotapenko@gmail.com>

AndrewJ.Futey

SentfrommyiPhone

Beginforwardedmessage:

From:"TrumpPutin2016"<info@johnkasich.com>
Date:December19,2015at10:28:35AMEST
To:<ajfutey@ameritech.net>
Subject:TRUMPNAMESPUTINASHISRUNNINGMATE
Reply-To:info@johnkasich.com

FORIMMEDIATERELEASE
CONTACT:KatrinaPeskov

TRUMPNAMESVLADIMIRPUTINASHISRUNNING
MATE
DuoPledgetoMakeTyrannyGreatAgain

Inaboldandvisionarymovecharacteristicofeverythinghe
does,todayterrificbillionaireDonaldTrumpnamedRussian
PresidentVladimirPutinashisrunningmateinthe2016U.S.
presidentialcampaign.TrumppledgedthattogetherwithPutin
 hewouldMakeTyrannyGreatAgain.

TrumpsaidhepickedPutintobehisvicepresidentforhisstrong
approachtodealingwithdissent,flexibleapproachtodemocracy,
ruleoflawandtheConstitution,andhiswillingnesstoregularly
violateothercountriesterritorialintegrityinblatantviolationof
internationallawifitsuitedhisaims.

IthinkIwouldjustgetalongverywellwithVladimirPutin.I
justthinkso.Peoplesaywhatdoyoumean?Ijustthinkwe
would,saidTrump.

PutinreadilyacceptedTrumpsoffertoserveonhisticket,
saying,Hesareallybrilliantandtalentedperson,withouta
doubthestheabsoluteleaderinthepresidentialrace.

Trumpalsounveiledanewwebsiteforthedictatorial
duo:Trump-Putin2016.com,aswellastheTwitter
feed@TrumpPutin.

ConcernsthataPutinvicepresidencyis,well,illegalarejustsour
grapesfromdummiesnotsmartenoughtothinkofitfirst.

###

Pleaseclickhereifyouwishtounsubscribetotheseemails.

Paidforwithdollars,notrubles,byKasichforAmerica,www.JohnKasich.com

Thismessagewassenttoajfutey@ameritech.netfrom:

TrumpPutin2016|info@johnkasich.com|KasichforAmerica|CapitolSquare,Suite2100,65EastStateStreet|
EmailMarketingby
Columbus,OH43215-4260

Unsubscribe

----------Forwardedmessage----------
From:CliffKincaid<kincaid@comcast.net>
Date:Sat,Dec19,2015at2:28PM
Subject:TrumpSeekstoMakeRussiaGreatAgain
To:WalterZaryckyj<waz2102@caa.columbia.edu>

TrumpSeekstoMakeRussiaGreatAgain
ByCliffKincaid

http://www.aim.org/aim-column/trump-seeks-to-make-russia-great-again/

DonaldTrumphashiredanattractiveyoungwomantospinthenewsinhisfavor.Butitsadifficultjob,especiallywhenacold-blooded
killerendorsesyourcandidate.OnCNNonThursdaynight,KatrinaPiersonattemptedtosoftentheimpactoftheRussianpresidents
endorsementoforhighpraiseforTrumpforU.S.president.

Thiswasntanendorsement,shesaid.ThiswassimplyjustapowerfulmanrecognizingsomeoneintheUnitedStatesrunningfor
presidentwhoisalsoapowerfulman.Itwasnotanendorsement.

ThatpowerfulmaninRussiaisaformerKGBspywhoseregimeismurderinginnocentpeopleinUkraineandSyria.Itisthesame
regimewhoseterroristsinEasternUkraineshotdownaMalaysianairplaneandkilledalmost300people.

PutinsaidaboutTrump,Heisaveryflamboyantman,verytalented,nodoubtaboutthat...Heistheabsoluteleaderofthepresidential
race,asweseeittoday.Hesaysthathewantstomovetoanotherlevelofrelations,toadeeperlevelofrelationswithRussia.Howcan
wenotwelcomethat?Ofcoursewewelcomeit.

Itcertainlysoundedlikesomethingapproachinganendorsement.

TrumpprovidedastatementtoABCNewssaying,Itisalwaysagreathonortobesonicelycomplimentedbyamansohighly
respectedwithinhisowncountryandbeyond.Trumpwenton:IhavealwaysfeltthatRussiaandtheUnitedStatesshouldbeableto
workwellwitheachothertowardsdefeatingterrorismandrestoringworldpeace,nottomentiontradeandalloftheotherbenefits
derivedfrommutualrespect.

Highlyrespected?DoesTrumpnotunderstandhowtheKremlinmanipulatesthemediaandeliminatesoppositionpoliticalfiguresand
independentjournalists?

TrumpsreactionwasmoreembarrassingthanthenewsthatBolshevikBernieSanders,whoisrunningfortheDemocraticpresidential
nomination,hadhoneymoonedintheoldSovietUnion.BasedonhispraiseforPutin,whoranoneofthesuccessoragenciestothe
KGBbeforehebecameRussianpresident,Trumpmayturnouttobeanotherbillionairemorecomfortablewiththepoliciesofthe
DemocraticParty.

Duringthe2012campaign,inthefinalpresidentialdebate,RepublicanpresidentialcandidateMittRomneycalledRussiaageopolitical
foe.PresidentObamamockedhim,sayingRomneywasstuckinthepast.TheObama/HillaryClintonpolicywastheRussianre-set,
whichwassupposedtoincreasetradeandpoliticalcooperationwiththePutinregime.Instead,itsetthestageforPutinsinvasionof
Ukraine.Beforethat,in2008,RussiahadinvadeditsformerRepublicofGeorgia.

TrumpseemsnottounderstandhowtheObama/ClintonRussianpolicyfailed.

Inthecurrentcampaign,SenatorMarcoRubio(R-FL)hasbeenstronglycriticalofPutin,callinghimagangsterandanorganized
crimefigurewhocontrolsthegovernmentandalargeterritory.

Thatterritoryisgrowing.

Asabusinessmanhimself,TrumpshouldknowthatpropertyrightsarenotrespectedinRussiaandthatmostoftheimportantbusinessis
concentratedinthehandsofPutinsformerKGBassociatesandcronies.Thatmakeshiscommentsaboutdevelopingatrade
relationshipwithPutinevenmoreincomprehensible.

BusinessmanBillBrowder,whorananinvestmentfundinRussiacalledHermitageCapitalManagement,wasforcedtofleeRussiaafter
hisassetswerestolen.Hislawyer,SergeiMagnitsky,wastorturedandmurdered,andhisdeathhasbecomeaninternationalsymbolof
humanrightsviolationsinRussia.

TheevidenceshowsthatPutinandhisgroupofformerKGBofficersarelootingRussia,consolidatingtheirpower,andeliminating
throughtortureandmurderanyonewhogetsintheirway.Browdersbook,RedNotice,tellsthestoryindetail.Hiswebsite,Russian
Untouchables,namesthenamesoftheRussianofficialsinvolvedinthecase.

AfilmthatwasshownonDecember15attheNewseum,FromRussiawithCash,explainshowRussiangovernmentfiguresseekto
stealandlaundertheirmoneyabroadthroughrealestatetransactionsinvolvingshellcompanies.

PiersontoldCNNthatTrumpsacceptanceofthePutinendorsementwasmadeinthecontextoffightingterrorism,fightingISISinthe
MiddleEast.Shesaid,VladimirPutinhassteppedup.Manypeopledorespecthimforthat,includingAmericanswhomaynotlike
VladimirPutinbuttheylikethefactthathessteppingupandtakingactionagainstISIS.

PiersonisavictimoftheRussianpropagandaoperationsbeingwagedintheU.S.andothercountriesbysuchKremlinoutletsasRussia
Today(RT).

Putinhassteppeduptosavethelong-timeSoviet/RussianclientstateofSyria.Theotherguestontheshow,radiohostBenFerguson,
pointedout,PutinisproppingupAssad.Youshouldunderstandthat,soshouldDonaldTrump.ButTrumpapparentlydoesnot.

Whatsmore,theevidenceindicatesthatPutinsmilitaryhasbeentargetinganti-Assadpro-Westernrebelgroups,notISIS.Infact,
BritishForeignSecretaryPhilipHammondsayspro-AssadmilitarystrikeshaveallowedISIStoseekadvantageontheground.He
said,ThemajorityofRussianairstrikescontinuetotargetSyrianoppositionforces.

ISISitselfhasconfirmedinoneofitsownpublicationsthatRussiaismainlytargetingothergroups,declaringthatRussiaisbombingthe
alliesofAmericaandthatitsinterventioninSyriahasconfusedAmericananalysts,thinktanks,intelligence,andpolicy-makers.

Trumphastobeconsideredintheranksoftheconfused.

InthewakeofTrumpsgaffeduringtherecentdebate,whenhedemonstratedignoranceaboutthenucleartriad,hisacceptanceof
PutinsendorsementmayputthisbusinessmanintheranksofofficialRussiandupes.Ineffect,theleadingGOPpresidentialcandidate
hasbecomecaptivetoMoscowspropaganda.

OncethevotersunderstandhowTrumphasemergedasastoogeofPutininthepresidentialrace,hisdaysasaseriouscandidatewillbe
numbered.

Imlikeareallysmartperson,Trumphassaid.ThisisthecandidatewhoacceptspraisefromVladimirPutinandreturnsthe
compliment,butsayshedoesntwantJebBushsendorsementbecauseheisalowenergypersonandhedoesnotrepresentstrength,
powerandstamina,whicharequalitiesourcountrydesperatelyneeds.

Itmaybetoolate,consideringthedamagehiscommentshavecausedtohiscampaignandreputation,butTrumpoughttodevotesome
ofhisownenergytounderstandinghowtheKremliniswagingawarofpropagandaanddisinformationregardingsubjectslikethewars
inUkraineandSyria.HeshouldalsoreadbusinessmanBillBrowdersbookoncorruptioninRussia.
CliffKincaidistheDirectoroftheAIMCenterforInvestigativeJournalism,andcanbecontactedatcliff.kincaid@aim.org

---------Forwardedmessage----------
From:WalterDerzko<wderzko@pathcom.com>
Date:Sat,Dec19,2015at1:00PM
Subject:Putin'slies----6ofthemostoutrageousuntruthsfromyesterday'spressconference[Meduza]
To:1WalterZarycky<waz2102@caa.columbia.edu>,1WolodymyrZarycky<wzarcusur@gmail.com>,WalterDerzko
<wderzko@pathcom.com>

Putinslies

6ofthemostoutrageousuntruthsfromyesterdayspressconference

11:50,18DECEMBER2015MEDUZA

VladimirPutinspentthreehoursansweringjournalists'questionsyesterdayathisannualpress
conference.Severaltimesduringthatmarathon,heplayedfastandloosewithfactsand
statistics.Meduzahighlightssomeofthemostegregiousuntruths.

Cargotrucksandpassengervehiclespaythesamevehicletax.

InPutin'swords:Amotorvehicletaxisthesameforpassengercarsandtrucksweighing12tonnesor
more.[...]Expertssaythatduringaccelerationandbraking,12-tonnetrucksdomoredamagetotheroad
bedthancars.However,theypaythesameamount.Thisproposalseekstocreatealevelplayingfield
foralltypesoftransport.

Infact:Taxratesfortheownersoftrucksandcarsaredifferent.Bylaw,thefederalgovernmentonly
setstheframeworkforvehicletaxrates,butregionalofficialscanraiseordecreasetheserates.Ifyou
lookatthetaxratessetdownbyregionallaws,it'sclearthatpassengervehiclesandcargotruckspay
differenttaxes.Forexample,inSt.Petersburg,apassengercarbetween100and150horsepowerpays
35rubles,whiletrucksofthesamehorsepowerpay40rubles.Andsometimes,itsohappens,cargo
trucksactuallypaylowertaxesthanordinarycars.
Muscovitescanparkneartheirhomesforfreeandeveryoneissatisfied.

InPutin'swords:Andparkingisfreeforpeoplewholiveinthebuildingsnexttothesecarparks.I
canassureyouthatthecitizensconcerned,theMuscoviteswholivenearthesecarparks,aremorein
favorofthepolicythanagainstit.Thechargesapplytothosewhoarrivefromotherdistrictsorother
regions:fromtheMoscowsuburbsandsoon.
Infact:WillingMuscovitescanobtainaso-calledresidentialpermittoparkforfreeneartheirhomes.
Butthisbenefitappliesonlybetweenthehoursof8p.m.and8a.m.For24-hourparking,you'vegotto
pay3,000rubles($42)ayear.DespitePutin'sconfidencethatMuscovitesaremoreinfavorthan
againsttheparkingfees,arecentLevadaCentersurveyshowsthatonlyintheverycenterofMoscow
doesthepolicyenjoynarrowsupport(57percent),whereasresidentsinMoscow'soutskirtsopposethe
newfees76percentto15percent.Justthispastweek,moreover,roughly1,000demonstratorsgathered
indowntownMoscowtoprotesttheparkingfees,resultinginseveraldetentionsbypolice.
Tatarstancandecideforitselfwhattheheadofitslocalgovernmentiscalled"head"or"president."

InPutin'swords:AsforthepresidentofTatarstan,thereisasayinginRussia:Callmeapotbutheat
menot.ThisisTatarstansbusiness.Idonotthinkthatthisissuchasensitiveissueorthatitcouldhurt
nationalfeelings.YouknowthepeopleintheCaucasusalwaysreactvehementlytoallissuesrelatedto
theirnationalidentity.However,evenChechnyasaid:no,thecountryshouldhaveonlyonepresident,
andwewillnotcalltheheadoftherepublicthisway.ThiswasthechoiceoftheChechenpeople.We
willrespectthechoiceofthepeopleofTatarstan.Itisuptoyoutodecide,allright?
Infact:TheChechenpeopleplayednoroleindecidingwhattocallRamzanKadyrov.(Heusedtobe
therepublic'spresident,whereastodayheistherepublic'shead.)Therewasnoreferendum.The
ChechenparliamentmerelyrenamedKadyrov'spositionatKadyrov'sownrequest,whichwas
promptednotbythewillofthepeople,butKadyrov'sownwhim.(Hedecidedthatonlyonepersonin
Russiashouldbecalledpresident,inagestureofservilitytoPutin.)
TheTatarpeoplearealsounlikelytogetasayinwhattheirrepublic'sleaderiscalled.Thereisa
federallawcomingintoeffectonJanuary1,2016,thatdesignatestheleadersofRussianrepublicsas
headsandnothingmore.Atthispoint,onlythefederalgovernmentcanrollbackthisreform.
Russianofficialsdidn'tknowthatTurkeyopposesthebombingofSyrianTurkmen.

InPutin'swords:Yousee,IhadnotheardabouttheTurkomans(SyrianTurks)before.Iknewthat
TurkmenourTurkmenlivedinTurkmenistan,andsoIwasconfusedNobodytoldusaboutthem.
ButafterweindicatedourwillingnesstocooperateontheissuesthataresensitivetoTurkey,why
didn'ttheyphoneusviathecooperationchannelsbetweenourmilitariestosaythatduringour
discussionsweoverlookedacertainpartoftheborderwhereTurkeyhasvestedinterests.Theycould
haveexpressedtheirconcernsoraskedusnottohitcertainareas.Butnobodysaidanything.
Infact:There'snowaytheRussianauthoritiesdidn'tknowwhoSyrianTurkmenare.TheTurkmenare
anethnicgroupofTurkicheritage,andareconsideredtobethethirdlargestminorityinSyria.Turkey
hastraditionallysupportedtheTurkmen.SeveraldaysbeforeTurkeyshotdownaRussianbomber,
TurkishofficialssummonedtheRussianambassadorandformallyprotestedRussianairstrikesagainst
TurkmensettlementsinSyria.
Foreignersdon'twanttoadoptsickchildren.

InPutin'swords:HereshowwewillworkLetsstartfromthelastpartofyourquestion.Idlike
topointoutthataccordingtostatisticsthenumberofsickchildrenadoptedbyforeignersisfarbelow
thatofhealthyones.Noforeignerhaseverrushedtoadoptoursickchildren.Thisisstatistics.Solets
nothurrytochangethedecisionsthatwevealreadymade.Thisisthefirstthing.

Infact:Statistically,foreignersadoptmorehealthychildrenthansickordisabledchildren,butthisisa
misleadingwayoflookingatthephenomenon,giventhatadoptionsofhealthychildrenarealwaysmore
common,regardlessoffosterparents'origins.In2012,Russianandforeignparentsadopted9,169
children,ofwhomonly200weredisabled.Ofalladoptionsbyforeignparents,disabledchildrenwere
adopted6.6percentofthetime.AmongadoptionsbyRussianparents,however,thatfiguredropsto0.4
percent.Inrawnumbers,Russianfosterparentsadopted29childrenwithdisabilitiesin2012,while
foreignparentsadopted171suchchildren.OneineverytenchildrenadoptedbyAmericanparentsthat
yearwasdisabled.
Russiawon'tlevysanctionsagainstUkraine.

InPutin'swords:WearenotgoingtoimposeanysanctionsonUkraineIwantthistobeheard.We
arejustswitchingtoamost-favored-nationtreatmentintrade.WhichmeansconditionsforUkrainewill
notbeanyworsethanthoseforourotherforeignpartners.

Infact:BeginningonJanuary1,2016,RussiawilllevyagainstUkrainethesamesanctionsitcurrently
hasagainsttheEuropeanUnion,theUnitedStates,Canada,andothernationsthathaveplacedsanctions
onRussiaforitsinterventioninCrimea.TheRussiangovernmentdecidedonthesesanctionsagainst
UkrainebackinAugust2015.

http://meduza.io/en/feature/2015/12/18/putin-s-lies

 From: KyleWilson<wilsonkyle81@gmail.com>
Senttime: 01/01/201603:25:53AM
To: RobertOtto<robertotto25@gmail.com>
Subject: Fwd:2015-#254-Johnson'sRussiaList-TheBestof2015

MatthewDalSantohawkshisproductenergeticallyinAustralia.It'ssubtextisalwaystharRussiaismoresinnedagainstthan
sinning.

SentfrommyiPad

Beginforwardedmessage:

From:JohnBesemeres<john.besemeres@anu.edu.au>
Date:1January201616:45:43AEDT
To:"wilsonkyle81@gmail.com"<wilsonkyle81@gmail.com>,"Wall,David(David.Wall@ona.gov.au)"
<David.Wall@ona.gov.au>
Subject:Re:2015-#254-Johnson'sRussiaList-TheBestof2015

selfcaricaturalissueofDJL.

From:DavidJohnson<david@cdi.ccsend.com>onbehalfofDavidJohnson<davidjohnson@starpower.net>
Sent:Thursday,December31,20155:29PM
To:JohnBesemeres
Subject:2015#254Johnson'sRussiaListTheBestof2015

Havingtroubleviewingthisemail?Clickhere

Johnson'sRussiaList
2015-#254
31December2015
davidjohnson@starpower.net
AprojectsponsoredthroughtheInstituteforEuropean,Russian,andEurasianStudies(IERES)atThe
GeorgeWashingtonUniversity'sElliottSchoolofInternationalAffairs*
www.ieres.org
JRLhomepage:www.russialist.org
ConstantContactJRLarchive:
http://archive.constantcontact.com/fs053/1102820649387/archive/1102911694293.html
JRLonFacebook:www.facebook.com/russialist
JRLonTwitter:www.twitter.com/JohnsonRussiaLi
SupportJRL:http://russialist.org/funding.php
Yoursourcefornewsandanalysissince1996
*SupportforJRLisprovidedinpartbyagrantfromCarnegieCorporationofNewYorkandtheOpenSociety
FoundationstotheGeorgeWashingtonUniversityandbyvoluntarycontributionsfromreaders.Thecontents
donotnecessarilyrepresenttheviewsofIERESortheGeorgeWashingtonUniversity.

"Wedon'tseethingsastheyare,butasweare"

"Don'tbelieveeverythingyouthink"

Youseewhatyouexpecttosee

DJ:Ijustdecidedtodothisyesterday.Astherehavebeenmorethan10,000
itemsinJRLin2015thisisatbestaverycursorysurvey.Manyverygood
piecesareleftout.Themaincriteriaisthattheauthorsaretryingtohelpus
understand.Ararercommoditythanitshouldbe.AsIhavesaidbeforethe
mostimportantthingstopayattentiontoarethemajorstatementsofRussian
leaders.Therestofthearticlesarenotinanyparticularorder.

Inthisissue
THEBESTOF2015
1.Putin.
2.Medvedev.
3.Lavrov.
4.RussiaDirect:TheUkrainecrisishasbecomemoredangerousthanjustanewCold
War.RDExclusive:RussiaDirectsatdownwitheminentRussiascholarRichardSakwaof
theUniversityofKenttodiscusshisnewbookFrontlineUkraine:CrisisintheBorderlands
andtoanalyzethegeopoliticalchallengesaheadin2015.
5.MoscowTimes:FyodorLukyanov,PutinWantsPeacefulCoexistenceWiththeWest.
6.CarnegieCouncilforEthicsinInternationalAffairs:TheUnitedStates,Russia,and
Ukraine:ReportfromMoscow.InterviewwithDmitriTrenin.
7.RussiaDirect:LegvoldandTrenin:HowtofixtheUS-Russianrelationship.Atarecent
symposiumhostedbyTuftsUniversity,twoleadingRussiaexperts-RobertLegvoldand
DmitriTrenin-discussedthefutureoftheU.S.-Russiarelationshipandwhatitwilltaketo
solvetheUkrainiancrisis.
8.Irrussianality:PaulRobinson,THENEEDFORSTRATEGICEMPATHY.
9.KarenHewitt:WhatisgoingoninRussia?TheviewsandvaluesofordinaryRussians.
10.RussiaInsider:AlexanderMercouris,MyFirst-HandAccountofaProvincialRussian
City(It'sBustling!).TravellingalongtheTransSiberianRailwayfromMoscowtoPerm
revealsabustlingmoderncity-totallydifferentfromthedarkprovincialRussiaofwestern
fancy.
11.TheNationalInterest:NicolaiPetro,Russia'sMoralFrameworkandWhyItMatters.A
lookintoRussia'smoralframeworkandtherelationshipithaswithreligionandstatevalues
couldhelpusbetterunderstandwhatmakesMoscowtick.
12.http://gordonhahn.com:GordonHahn,Putin:ARussianNeo-Traditionalist,Nota
WesternConservative.
13.Forbes.com:MarkAdomanis,Russia'sEconomy:NotJustNaturalResources.
14.ChristianScienceMonitor:FredWeir,SpurredbyWesterncriticism,Russians
experiencesomethingnew:patriotism.Inthepast,Russiawasanempire,thena
communistcolossus,thena'defeated'powerexpectedtoadoptWesternways.Butcurrent
tensionswiththeWestarefosteringwhatmaybethebirthofadistinctRussian
nationalism.
15.http://warontherocks.com:MichaelKofman,TheSevenDeadlySinsofRussiaAnalysis.
16.TheNationalInterest:MatthewDalSanto,Putin'sPopularity,Explained.
17.FinancialTimes:ThomasGraham,Europe'sproblemiswithRussia,notPutin.Moscow
isnotarisingrevolutionaryforcebutoneseekingtorestorepower.
18.TheIndependent(UK):MaryDejevsky,Onceagain,theWestfailstounderstand
Russia.Westernleadersarestayingawayfromthisyear'sVictoryDay,whichmournsthe
lossof20millionRussianswhodiedtodefeatNaziGermany.
19.RussiaInsider:Shellback,TwoCenturiesofRussianSurprises--WhyAreWe
Surprised?UnderestimatingRussiawillsurpriseyou.
20.Counterpunch.org:HalynaMokrushyna,PerpetratorsHonoringTheirVictims,orAn
IncomprehensibleLogicConcerningDonbas"Terrorists"
21.FairObserver:OlenaLennonandBrianMilakovsky,IsEurope'sBufferZoneinUkraine
KeepingitSafe?
22.www.rt.com""KievgovtresistsonlysolutiontoUkrainecrisis-fullautonomyof
Donbass."(interviewwithAnatolLieven)
23.RossiiskayaGazeta:SergeyKaraganov,BiddingFarewelltotheCivilWar.Anationthat
hasnotburieditsperishedfellowcitizenscannotrespectitselfandmoveforward.
24.SarahLindemann-Komarova:RunningforOfficeinSiberia:Andthewinneris...Lastina
seriescoveringtheDistrict#35NovosibirskCityCouncilelection.
25.www.belgraviadispatch.com:GregoryDjerejian,REALISTICAPPRAISALOFRUSSIA'S
POLICYISN'TTANTAMOUNTTOAPUTINAPOLOGIA.
26.TheUnzReview:AnatolyKarlin,RussiaandtheDepressionThatWasn't.
27.ValdaiDiscussionClub:DavidLane,IstheRussianFederationaThreattothe
InternationalOrder?
28.RussiaBeyondtheHeadlines:BryanMacDonald,Russiaavoidsrevolutionagain.
NaysayersarekeentopredictRussia'sdemise,butdespiteadifficultyearpoliticallyand
economically,thecountryhasfailedtofallapart.
29.MoscowTimes:MarkGaleotti,WestHasLosttheRighttoLecturePutin.
30.Journalitico:DanielleRyan,TheProblemWithPropaganda.

#1
Putin

http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/transcripts/press_conferences/49261
DirectLinewithVladimirPutin
DirectLinewithVladimirPutinwasbroadcastliveonChannelOne,Rossiya-1andRossiya-
24TVchannels,andMayak,VestiFMandRadioRossiiradiostations.
April16,2015

http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/50380
InterviewtoAmericanTVchannelCBSandPBS
VladimirPutingaveaninterviewtoAmericanjournalistCharlieRoseintherun-uptohis
addressattheUNGeneralAssembly's70thsession.
September29,2015

http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/50548
MeetingoftheValdaiInternationalDiscussionClub
VladimirPutintookpartinthefinalplenarysessionofthe12thannualmeetingoftheValdai
InternationalDiscussionClub.
October22,2015

http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/transcripts/messages/50864
PresidentialAddresstotheFederalAssembly
VladimirPutindeliveredtheAnnualPresidentialAddresstotheFederalAssembly.The
AddresswastraditionallydeliveredattheKremlin'sStGeorgeHallbeforeanaudienceof
morethan1,000people.
December3,2015
http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/50971
VladimirPutin'sannualnewsconference
ThePresident'snewsconferencewasbroadcastlivebyRossiya-1,Rossiya-24and
ChannelOne,aswellasMayak,VestiFMandRadioRossiiradiostations.
December17,2015

[returntoContents]

#2
Medvedev

http://government.ru/en/news/16508/
The6thGaidarForum
14January201512:30RANEPA,Moscow
TheGaidarForumisaninstitutionalplatformfordiscussingthekeychallengesfacingthe
worldtoday.Thecentralthemeofthe2015forumisRussiaandtheWorld:New
Dimensions.
http://government.ru/en/news/17768/
Governmentreportonitsperformancein2014
21April201512:00TheStateDumaoftheRussianFederation,Moscow
"TheGovernmentoftheRussianFederation(...)shallsubmittotheStateDumaannual
reportsontheGovernment'sperformance,includingonissuesformulatedbytheState
Duma."(ConstitutionoftheRussianFederation,Article114,Clause1,Subclause"a")

http://government.ru/en/news/18220/
DmitryMedvedev'sinterviewwithRossiya1TVnetwork
23May201512:30Moscowregion
PrimeMinistergaveaninterviewtoSergeiBrilev'sprogrammeVestivSubbotu.

http://government.ru/en/news/19772/
Thenewreality:Russiaandglobalchallenges
23September201520:00
ArticlebyDmitryMedvedev.

http://government.ru/en/news/20488/
DmitryMedvedevisinterviewedbyRossiiskayaGazetaonthepaper's25thanniversary
11November201500:00
DmitryMedvedevhaspresentedanHonoraryCertificateoftheRussianGovernmentand
respondedtoquestionsfromRGGeneralDirectorPavelNegoitsa,Editor-in-ChiefVladislav
FroninandcorrespondentVladimirKuzmin.

http://government.ru/en/news/20945/
InConversationwithDmitryMedvedev:Interviewwithfivetelevisionchannels
9December201512:00Moscow
PrimeMinisteransweredquestionsfromTVanchorsIradaZeinalova(ChannelOne),Sergei
Brilyov(Rossiya),KirillPozdnyakov(NTV),YelizavetaOsetinskaya(RBCTV)andMikhail
Fishman(TVRain).

[returntoContents]

#3
Lavrov

http://www.mid.ru/en/web/guest/foreign_policy/news/-
/asset_publisher/cKNonkJE02Bw/content/id/1475621
3June2015
RussianForeignMinisterSergeiLavrov'sExclusiveInterviewwithBloombergTelevision's
RyanChilcote,Moscow,June2,2015

[returntoContents]

#4
RussiaDirect
January5,2015
TheUkrainecrisishasbecomemoredangerousthanjustanewColdWar
RDExclusive:RussiaDirectsatdownwitheminentRussiascholarRichardSakwaofthe
UniversityofKenttodiscusshisnewbookFrontlineUkraine:CrisisintheBorderlandsand
toanalyzethegeopoliticalchallengesaheadin2015.
ByPavelKoshkin

WithnoendinsightfortheUkrainiancrisisin2015,leadingacademicsarebeginningto
offertheirinsightsonhowtoaddressthisgeopoliticalstandoff.AmongthemisRichard
Sakwa,professorofRussianandEuropeanpoliticsattheUniversityofKent.Hisnewbook
FrontlineUkraine:CrisisintheBorderlandsprovidesanexplanationoftheoriginsofthe
crisisinUkraineandtracksdownthecircumstancesthatprovokedtheintense
confrontationbetweenRussiaandtheWest,whichhasbeendescribedbysomeexperts
asanewColdWar.

"TheasymmetricalendoftheColdWareffectivelyshutRussiaoutfromtheEuropean
alliancesystem,"Sakwasaid."Thefailuretoestablishagenuinelyinclusiveandequal
EuropeansecuritysystemimbuedEuropeaninternationalpoliticswithpowerfulstress
points,whichin2014producedtheinternationalearthquakethatwecalltheUkrainecrisis."

Heseesthiscrisisas"theworstinternationalcrisisinEuropesincetheendoftheCold
War."AsSakwaseesit,thecurrentcrisishascalledintoquestiontheideaofaGreater
Europe,orawayofbringingtogetherallendsoftheEuropeancontinentintoanewgrouping
thatSovietPresidentMikhailGorbachevoncecalledtheCommonEuropeanHome.
AccordingtoSakwa,thecrisisisamajorchallengetoamultipolarandpluralisticconceptof
Europe.

RussiaDirectconductedaSkypeinterviewwithSakwatofindoutaboutthemajorideasof
hisbookandhowtheycanbeappliedtominimizethecurrenttensionsinrelationsbetween
Russia,Europeand-morebroadly-withtheWest.Inaddition,Sakwatalkedaboutthe
U.S.-Russiageopoliticalface-off,thecurrenteconomiccrisisinRussiaanditsimplications
fortherestoftheworld.

RussiaDirect:Yousaythatyournewbookis"anattempttoexplainhowEuropegotintothis
mess."So,howdidBrusselsandMoscowgetintothismess?

RichardSakwa:Thereareseverallevelstothis,andthefirstlevelistheoverallgeopolitical
one,thefailureoftheEuropeanUniontoachievewhatmanypeoplenowadayscallthe
GreaterEuropeanvisionofunitingthecontinentaftertheendoftheColdWar.Andthereis
thefailureofallsidesthatIcalltheasymmetricalendoftheColdWar.Thetwocame
togethertocreatethecrisis.

Andso,insteadofaGreaterEuropeanvisionthatisbuiltonGorbachev'sideaofaCommon
EuropeanHome,wehadanextensionofwhatIcalltheWiderEuropeanagenda,a
Brussels-centricviewoftheworld,accordingtowhichtheEuropeanUnionisthemainform
ofEuropeanunity.And,ofcourse,thisbydefinitionexcludesRussia.So,therewasan
exclusivedynamic.AndthefinalelementofthatisthatEuropeitselfbecamemoredeeply
embeddedinwhatIcallthe"newAtlanticism"-theeffectivemergeroftheEuropeanUnion
withNATO[andtheU.S.]Andthisisawholenewconstellationofpowerthatsystematically
excludesRussia.

Therewasanotherlevel:theinternalcrisisinUkraine.WehadtwovisionsofUkrainian
statehoodthathavebeencontested.Basically,thestrugglehasbeenbetweenthemonist
vision-thatis,anUkrainianizingversion-andamorepluralisticvision.Andtoday'sbattleis
notoverindividualforcesbutthestruggleoverwhowilldecidewhatitmeanstobe
Ukrainian.So,thesetwocrisescametogetherwithdevastatingconsequences.

ThemonistvisionappealstothetraditionofUkrainianstatehoodthatstressesseparation
fromothereastSlaviccountries,aboveallRussiaandBelarus.ItstressesUkraine's
distinctivedevelopment.Onthehand,thepluralisttraditiondrawsontheideaof
MalorussianismtosuggestthatUkraineisamulticivilizationalcommunityofdifferent
nations,althoughallcanbeequallyloyaltotheideaofanindependentsovereignstate.

RD:TowhatextentdotheseideashelptofindtherootsofthecurrentcrisisinUkraineand
understandit?

R.S.:WeneedtoadoptamorepluralisticvisioninunderstandingtheinternalUkrainian
issues,butalsoamorepluralisticvisionofEuropeaswell.WhatIamsayinginthebook
contradictsthosewhoseeAtlanticismandNATOenlargementastheonlygameintown.I
amsayingthattherearemoreoptionsavailable,abovealltheideaofamultipolarand
pluralistEurope.

Thiswouldhelptranscendthenegativelogicof"Russiavs.theWest"andoffertheideaofa
morepluralisticEurope.YoucanbegintomovetowhatIwouldargueforistheneedofa
Helsinki2Meeting,apeaceconferencedidn'ttakeplaceattheendoftheColdWar.This
wouldbeameetingofequalswithinUkraineandEuropewithequallydifferentviews-
Russia,Hungary,Turkey,Ukraine-aboutthechallengesfacingthecontinent.

RD:Onecouldarguethatmultipolarityisasortofbuzzword,usedbytheKremlininits
publicitycampaigntoaccountforitsrecentforeignpolicyinitiativestounderminetheUnited
States'globalinfluenceandpoliticalheft.Infact,itcanbeseenasatoolofRussia's
propagandatojustifyitscontroversialpolicyinUkraine.

R.S.:Ofcourse,multipolarityisusedinstrumentallybysomeRussiansonsome
occasions.Butthedebatetodayisn'tsomuchaboutsubstantiveissues,it'saboutwhohas
therighttohavedifferentviews.Thereisnotsomuchageopoliticaldebate:Discussions
todayareaboveall"geoideological,"atypeofcontestationinwhicheverybodytriestode-
legitimatetheviewsofothers-nottodefeatthemintermsoflogic(asitwere),buttode-
legitimatetheveryexistenceofanalternativeview.Thatisafundamentaldangerthatthe
worldfaces.Inanutshell,itishegemonismvs.apluralistreality.

RD:Yes,butagainthewaragainsthegemonismisusedbytheKremlintopointfingersat
Washingtonandblameitspolicy,whileU.S.attemptstoexertitsinfluencecanbejustseen
asanattempttomaintainitsleadershipthatitachievedthankstoitseconomicand
geopoliticalclout.

R.S.:Leadershipisacodeword.Otherswouldcallithegemony.And,ofcourse,theUnited
Statestriestomaintainitshegemonyintheformofaclaimtoworldleadership.Ontheone
side,theUnitedStatesconsidersitsleadershipasaguaranteeofarangeofliberal
universalpublicgoods.

ButthereisanothersideoftheU.S.hegemonywhichisfardarker,farmoreimperialistic.
ThereisaconstantbattlegoingonwithintheUnitedStatesbetweenitsliberaluniversalism
andmilitaristichegemonism.MyfinalpointisthattheworldischangingandtheU.S.hasto
learntoshareleadershipwithothers.Andthisisthebiggestchallengeforit.

RD:Doyouagreethatnowwearewitnessinganew(full-fledged)ColdWarbetween
RussiaandtheWest,orisitjustacyclicalconfrontation,provokedbytheCrimeatussle?

R.S.:ItisnotaColdWar,butisnotcyclicaleitheritismoresubstantivethanjustnormal
upsanddowns,farmoresubstantive,thisisthemomentoftruth.So,weareintoanewball
gameentirelyreflectingsomefundamentaleconomicandpoliticalshiftsinworldpower.
However,Iwouldn'tcallthisa"ColdWar"becausetheterm"ColdWar"focusesattentionon
thepast,whereastoday'sconflictissomethingfundamentallynew.

RD:So,howshouldwecallit?

R.S.:Youcancallitanintensificationofthecoldpeacehowever,Iamaverseaboutthe
term"ColdWar"becauseifyouusethetermmeansthatyoulosetheintellectualspecificity
ofthepresentsituation,theconstructionalframeworkofwhatmakesthisconflictepochal.
Thistermismisleading.Again,weareintoanewballgame.Whatisthenewballgame
called?Idon'tknow,butIamworkingonit.

RD:Previously,youmentionedtwooriginsoftheUkrainiancrisis-geopolitical(thefailureof
theGreaterEuropeproject,NATOexpansion)andinternalones(thefailureofagreementon
thenatureofUkrainianstatehood).Givenallthis,whatshouldwedotominimizethe
implicationsofthecrisisinUkraine?

R.S.:Everybodyhastomakecompromises.Ontheoneside,Russiahastomake
unequivocalcommitmenttoUkrainianintegritywithoutCrimea.Ofcourse,thereshouldbe
compromisesfromtheWesternsideaswell.However,atthemoment,thereisno
intellectualframeworkintheWesttounderstandwhatisgoingoninRussia'sforeignpolicy
and,morebroadly,tothestructureofinternationalpower.Thepointisthatifthecrisishad
notbeenprovokedbythesituationinUkraine,thennodoubtsomethingelsewouldhave
actedasthecatalyst.AswesawbeforetheSochiOlympics,therewasanextraordinarily
tenseenvironmentforatleasttwoyearsbeforeEuromaidanandCrimea'sannexation.

AndAtlanticistsareinstrumentallyusingthiscrisisthisnow.Ithastobeaverypatient
intellectualworkexplainingthatthesituationismorecomplexthantheAtlanticists-
includingneo-consinLithuania,UK,theU.S.andelsewhere-wouldpresentit.Itisavery
dangerousconstellationofpowerdominatingatthemomentinWesternthinking,andthere
isadisturbingabsenceofcritique-thelackofintellectualchallenge.

RD:GiventheRepublicans'dominationintheU.S.Congress,theirhawkishattitudetothe
KremlinandPutin'shawkishintransigence,willMoscowandWashingtonbeabletofind
commonground?

R.S.:Idon'tthinkthingsaregoingtobebetterforthenextfewyears.Itisacomplete
stalemate.Ontheonehand,themajorgoalistounderstandthedynamicsofthestandoff.
Andbyunderstandingthedynamics,youcandevelopalternatives.WithRussia'srelations
withtheUnitedStatesgoingtobebadformanyyears,theEuropeanUnionandsome
leadingEuropeanstatescouldactasintermediariestobegintode-escalatethecurrent
conflict.

RD:Previously,GermanyhasbeenasortoftheintermediarystatethatcouldhelpRussia
andtheWestfindcommonground.Butnow,Berlinseemstohavebeendisappointedby
Russia'sreluctancetocomeupwithacompromise,asindicatedbyarecentinterviewof
GermanyChancellorAngelaMerkel.So,whowillhelptheKremlininthiscase,ifevenits
traditionalandreliablepartnersseemtobegivingup?

R.S.:IthinkthatGermanyisstillabletoactasaninterlocutorinageopoliticalsenseto
regulatetheUkrainiancrisis.However,GermanyunderMerkelhastotakebigdecisions:
NowitismoreimportantforBerlintomaintainitsallianceandallegianceswithintheAtlantic
community,toensuretheconsolidationofitsinfluencewithintheEuropeanUnion.

ThespecialrelationsbetweenRussiaandGermanyforthetimebeingareover,but
GermanyisstillanimportantactorinregulatingboththeUkrainianandthebroader
Europeancrisis.Yet,itdoesn'tmeanthattodayRussiahasalmostnoonetoworkwith
withintheEuropeanUnion.

RD:WhataboutFrance?Doesithavethepotentialtobeaninterlocutorbetweenthe
KremlinandtheWest,giventheDecembervisitofFrenchPresidentFrancoisHollandeto
MoscowtofindcommontheUkrainiancrisis?

R.S.:Previously,FranceinvitedRussianPresidentVladimirPutinandhisUkrainian
counterpartPetroPoroshenkotoNormandyinJune,whichwasquiteuseful.So,thereis
thepotentialforFrance.Butontheotherhand,PresidentHollande'spositionis
exceptionallyweakinternally.So,hewon'tbeabletodomuch.

RD:So,whatotherEuropeancountriescanbeseenasintermediariesinthiscase?

R.S.:Equally,Italycouldbealsoagoodpartner,withstrongeconomiclinkstoRussiaand
anindependentpositioninEuropeanpolitics.Therearefewcountriesthatmaybeableto
findawayoutfromtheimmediateconflictand,mostimportantly,animmediatesolutionof
theUkrainiancrisis,becauseitisapermanentsourceofcrisisintheEuropeanbodypolitic.

TherearenoothercountriesthatcaneffectivelyacttoregulatetheEuropeancrisisindeed,
theUK,LithuaniaandothershavebeenabletoturntheEuropeanUnionfromapeace
projecttoonethatcontinuestheColdWarbyothermeans.

RD:HowdoyouseeResolution758adoptedbyU.S.HouseofRepresentativesandthe
UkraineFreedomSupportAct,bothaimedatcondemningRussiaforitspolicyinUkraine?
DoyouagreethatthesedocumentscouldfuelfurtherU.S.-Russiaconfrontationandleadto
awar,assomepredict?

R.S.:Oneandtheotherresolutionobviouslyonlyexacerbatethesituation.Theyreflecta
verynarrowvisionoftheworld.Thesedocumentsarenothelpfulatall.Theyarebasically
declarationswhichcouldleadtorenewalofconflictinUkraine.Weareinasituationof
extraordinarydangerforhumanityweareinapre-warsituationnowandweneedtofind
argumentsforpoliticianstocalmthemdown.Theseresolutionsmightbringusclosertothe
abyss.Weshouldn'tunderestimatethedangerthathumanityfindsitselfin.

RD:DoyouagreethatRussia'scurrenteconomicturbulence(fallingruble,shrinkingGDP,
gloomyforecastsfor2015)istheresultoftheWestern-ledsanctionsand"thepricefor
Crimea,"astheKremlin'spoliticalopponentsargue?

R.S.:Absolutely.Russia'sweakeconomybecomesweakeraftersanctions:Ithasbeen
punishedforitsactionsandthetensionsofalargergeopoliticalandEuropeansituation.

RD:Ifafull-fledgedcrisishitsRussiain2015-2016,willRussia'scurrentpoliticalregime
survive?

R.S.:Thecrisiscouldgetfarworse.Nevertheless,theregimehasenormouspopular
support,asindicatedfrompublicopinionpolls.Butthissupportisbuiltondeliveringpublic
goods-security,risingstandardsoflivingandsoon.Theregimewillsurvive,althoughit
maybeforcedtochangesomeofitscharacteristics.Thesystemisverycomplex,with
manydarksidesaswellaspositivesaspects.ThedangeristhatMoscowwilloverreact
andprovokeachainreaction.Inthissituation,Russiashouldadoptacalmpositionand
reactwithoutexcesses.

RD:SomearguethattheeconomicandpoliticalcrisisinRussiamightbackfireandhave
negativeimplicationsfortherestoftheworld.Isitreallythecase?

R.S.:Itcould.EventhoughRussiaisnottheworld'sbiggesteconomy,itisoneofthe
biggest:Itrepresents4percentoftheworld'sGDPandwasthe8thlargesteconomyinthe
world(beforetherublecollapse).In1997,eventherelativelysmalleconomyofThailand
wasenoughtocauseaneconomicmeltdowninSoutheastAsiaand,then,aglobalcrisis
soamajoreconomiccrisisinRussiacouldhaveadevastatingeffectontheEuropeanand
worldeconomy,whiledestabilizingworldeconomicandglobalgovernance.

[returntoContents]

#5
MoscowTimes
April20,2015
PutinWantsPeacefulCoexistenceWiththeWest
ByFyodorLukyanov
FyodorLukyanoviseditorofRussiainGlobalAffairs.

Thelatestlivecall-inshowinwhichPresidentVladimirPutinansweredquestionsfrom
ordinaryRussiansdidnothaveanysensationalhighpoints,butitwasanimportant
indicatoroftheleader'smood.

Putinrepeatedallofhisstandardphrasesandideas,butwithoutthepassionandtension
seeninmanyofhispublicappearancesinrecentyears.Hiscommentsrevealednodesire
foranescalationofthecurrentconflict.Ifanything,theyconveyedacertaincalmfatalism,
thoughnothopelessness.

Putinconcededthat,yes,acertainsituationhadarisenduetosanctionsandworsening
relationswiththeWest,butthatRussiamustlookfornewopportunitiesandusethecurrent
circumstancestoitsadvantage.

Putinalmostcompletelyrefrainedfromhisusualaccusationsandrecriminationsagainst
theUnitedStates,notbecausehehadachangeofheart,butbecausehispositionisso
clearthatitrequiresnofurtherexplanationorrepetition.Andjudgingfromthecomments
fromviewersthatappearedinacontinuousrollingtextonthescreen,nobodyneededany
convincingwithregardtotheUnitedStates.

AtypicalexchangeconcernedthefateoftheMistralwarships.Putinsaidthatthefaileddeal
wasnotaproblem,thatRussiadidnotreallyneedtheshipsanywayandhadonlyordered
themtostrengthenrelationswithFrance.HeaddedthatRussiadoesnotneedFranceto
payapenaltyforbreachofcontract,thatParisshouldsimplyreturnthemoneyMoscowhas
alreadypaidfortheships.

AmoreinterestingmomentcamewithaquestionaboutrecentattemptstoequateStalinism
withNazism.Putininitiallygaveatraditionalexplanationofwhy"theuglynatureoftheStalin
regime"wasincomparabletothecrimesoftheNazis.

Andthenhemadethisunexpectedremark:"Intruth,we,orratherourpredecessors,gave
causeforthis.Why?BecauseafterWorldWarII,wetriedtoimposeourowndevelopment
modelonmanyEasternEuropeancountries,andwedidsobyforce.Thishastobe
admitted.Thereisnothinggoodaboutthisandwearefeelingtheconsequencesnow.
Incidentally,thisismoreorlesswhattheAmericansaredoingtoday,astheytrytoimpose
theirmodelonpracticallytheentireworld,andtheywillfailaswell."

Thatputaninterestingtwistonthegovernment'smassivecampaigntoforbidany
denigrationofthepast-inotherwords,toprohibitcastingdoubtontheactionsoftheSoviet
Union.ItwouldnormallybeunacceptabletocomparethepastactionsoftheSovietUnion
withwhattheUnitedStatesisdoingtoday,butthatisexactlywhatPutindid.

Anditsendsawake-upcalltothosewhohadbeenhopingtobuildRussia'sfutureoutofits
Sovietpast.
Andalthoughtheshowlackedanyremarkablehighlights,itofferedplentyoffoodforthought
andmarkedaconclusionofaperiodpackedwithemotionsandevents.Fortheauthorities
tomaintainthestronganti-Westernsentimenttheyhavemanufactured,theymustnowtake
theconflicttothenextlevel,andthatisdangerousandextremelyexpensive.

Turningbackisimpossible.TheCrimeandecisionisirreversible,withoutputtingtheentire
politicalmodelatrisk.AnybacktrackingonsupportforeasternUkrainewouldleadto
seriouspoliticalrepercussionsathomeandwouldgenerallybeperceivedasacleardefeat
fortheKremlin.

MoscowcannotrestoreitsformerrelationswiththeWest.Regardlessofwhethersanctions
arelifted,thebasisforcooperationthatwasrootedinthebalanceofpowersofthe1990s
hasbeenlost.AndRussiahasnoanalogousrelationsleftwithotherpartners.Itsonly
choicenowistolookforsuchopportunitieselsewhere,withnoguaranteeitwillfindthem.

ThatiswhyMoscowprefersthestatusquothatdevelopedbetweenRussiaandtheWest
followingtheacutephaseofthewarinUkraine.Touseatermthatisonceagaininvogue,
Russiaisenteringintoa"frozenconflict"withEuropeandtheUnitedStatesthatnoneofthe
partieslike,butthattheyallprefertoopenconflict.

ItisnocoincidencethatPutindevotedagreatmanyofhiscommentstomacroeconomic
indicatorsinRussia.Heseemedtobepleasantlysurprisedthatthesituationisunder
control,andthatthingsareactuallyimprovinginsomeareas-especiallybecausethe
economicoutlookattheendoflastyearwasbleak,tosaytheleast.Thepresident
mentionedseveraltimesthatRussia'seconomyhadwithstoodtheheavyblowitreceived,
andheapparentlyconcludedthatitcouldthereforecontinueoninitscurrentconditionfor
quitesometime.

TheKremlindoesnotwanttoprovoketheWestintoapplyinggreaterpressure,butitwill
refrainfromdoinganythingtoreducethecurrentpressure.Thatisafatalisticapproachthat
essentiallysays:"Whateverwillhappen,willhappen,buttheworstisbehindus."

IntheColdWarterminologythatisagaingainingcurrency,theconfrontationismovingintoa
phaseof"peacefulcoexistence."Thatisnotarapprochement,butrecognitionofthefact
thatneithersidecanfullygaintheupperhand.Andthatmeansbothmustcooperate
whereverpossibletominimizetherisks,evenifthatinteractionislimitedtocertain,specific
areas.

Ratchetingdowntheconflictdoesnotnecessarilymeanthatthetwosideswanttoendit,
butratherthatittheywanttocontainitwithinamanageableframework.Thisisespecially
importantnowbecausethenumberofprovocativeincidentsinvolvingwarshipsandmilitary
aircraftflyingwiththeirtranspondersoffhasincreasedmarkedlyinrecentmonths,
indicatingthatbothsideshavelargelyforgottenandmustquicklyrelearnthe"safety
measures"thatwereinplaceduringthefirstColdWar.

Thehistoryofthesecondhalfofthe20thcenturysuggeststhat,inevitably,relations
alternately"warm"and"cool"inaglobal"frozenconflict.""Peacefulcoexistence"always
followsheatedconfrontationwheneveroneorbothsidesfeelsithasgatheredenough
strengthtogainalittleground.

Ontheotherhand,duringthatColdWar,abalanceofpowersexistedthatguaranteed
neithersidecouldachievecompletevictoryovertheother.Thatmechanismismissingnow,
butthereisa"largerworld,"aninternationalcommunitypursuingitsownambitionsand
copingwithitsownproblemsquiteindependentlyofRussia'sconfrontationwiththeWest.

Thatfactexertsamoderatinginfluenceonthecontendingsidesbecausetheinterestsof
that"largerworld"mightormightnotcoincidewiththeirs.Thatcounterbalancedidnotexist
duringthefirstColdWarbecauseglobalpoliticswerecompletelytiedupintheU.S.-Soviet
confrontation.

Thedownsideofthecurrentphaseof"peacefulcoexistence"isitslackofinnerreflection
anddebate.Duringthecall-inshow,PutincategoricallyrejectedtheveryideathatRussia's
policytowardUkrainehadfailed.Hismessagewasessentially:"Russiaisnottoblame.It
didwhatithadtodo."
Westernleaderstakeasimilarapproach,heapingalloftheblameonRussiaandclaiming
thattheyonlywantedthebestforUkraine.Apparentlythetwosideswillbeginformulatinga
newpolicyonlywhenthesituationintheworldbecomessobadthattheyfinallyunderstand
thatoldColdWar-eraapproachesareinadequatetothecurrentsituation.

China'srisinginfluence,thewideninghavocthattheIslamicStateiswreakingandthe
greaterpotentialforbothprogressanddestructionthatnewtechnologieshaveunleashed-
alongwithnumerousotherfactors-arehasteningtheadventofthatterribleday.

[returntoContents]

#6
CarnegieCouncilforEthicsinInternationalAffairs
www.carnegiecouncil.org
February27,2015
TheUnitedStates,Russia,andUkraine:ReportfromMoscow
InterviewwithDmitriTrenin

DAVIDSPEEDIE:I'mDavidSpeedie,directoroftheprogramonU.S.GlobalEngagement
hereattheCarnegieCouncil.It'saveryspecialpleasuretowelcometodaysomeonewho
hasbeenagoodandtrustedfriendfortwodecades,Iwouldthink,DmitriTrenin.

LetmejustbrieflysaythatDmitriTreninservedintheSovietandRussianarmedforcesfor
twodecades,from1972to1993.HethentaughtattheWarStudiesDepartmentofthe
MilitaryInstitutefrom1986to1993.HeretiredfromtheRussianarmyin1993andthenheld
apostasaseniorresearchfellowattheInstituteofEuropeinMoscow.In1993,hewas
alsoaseniorresearchfellowattheNATODefenseCollegeinRome.Then,ofcourse,he
joinedtheCarnegieEndowmentforInternationalPeace,wherehenowdirectstheCarnegie
MoscowCenter.

SowithDmitriTrenin,wehavetrulyaseasonedperspective,bothfromthepointofviewof
militarypolicyandintellectualanalysisofthedevelopmentsinRussiaatthemoment.

Dmitri,awarmwelcometotheCarnegieCouncil.

DMITRITRENIN:It'sagreatpleasuretobewithyouhereattheCouncil.

DAVIDSPEEDIE:Wespokeafewmonthsago,Dmitri.Atthattimeyousaidsomethingthat
wasverystriking,andthatisthatwewouldlookbackontheperiodof1992to2014,barely
morethan20years,astheinter-ColdWarperiod.Iwouldassumethatnotmuchhas
happenedintheinterveningweeksandmonthstochangethatanalysis.

DMITRITRENIN:Unfortunately,IthinkwehavemoreevidencethatthisiswhatIthoughtit
wasandstillthink-aperiodbetweentwoconfrontationsbetweenMoscow,ontheonehand,
andtheUnitedStates,ontheotherhand.Ofcourse,youcannothavetheColdWarrepeat
itself,buttheconfrontationthatoneexperiencestodaycouldbeeverybitascoldand
potentiallycouldevenbemoredangerousthantheColdWarofthe1940sthroughthe
1980s.

DAVIDSPEEDIE:Whathasbeenlostatthismomentintime,itseemstome,istheability
thathasbeenattimeshaltingandincomplete,buteven,startingtowardstheendofthe
ColdWar-theabilitytofindsomekindofaccommodationbetweenthetwosides,asitwere.
TheRussianspecialistRobertLegvoldspokerecentlyofthelossofwhathecalled"useful
ambiguityintherelationship."Instead,wearekindofinwhatmightbeseenastheColdWar
atitsheight,placingallblameforallthatiswrongintherelationshipontheotherside,rather
thanrecognizingshortcomingsonboth.

Isthatprettymuchontarget?

DMITRITRENIN:Ithinkit'safairanalysis.IthinkwhathaschangedisalsotheideathatI
thinkbothsidessharedverymuchattheendoftheColdWarthatnoonewasperfect,that
mistakesweremadebybothsides,thatbothsides,ifyoulike,lostthebenefitofajointly
foughtandjointlygainedvictoryintheSecondWorldWar,thattheystumbledintotheCold
Warthattheydidn'tneed,andthattheycouldonlygetoutofthatpredicamentthroughjoint
efforts,recognizingagainone'sownmistakes.
Ithinkwenowhaveasituationinwhicheachsidebelievesithasamonopolyontruth,a
monopolyonwhat'sright,andtheothersideisbasicallydoingthingsallwrong.Thatis
potentially,asIsaid,adangeroussituation.

DAVIDSPEEDIE:Wearenothere,obviously,toassessblame.Itwouldbewrongtofallinto
thattrapofsayingthatonesideisallinthewrongandtheotherisintheright.However,
therearesomecommentatorsherewhofeelthattherehavebeenmeasurestakencertainly
inwhatyounowcalltheinter-ColdWarperiodthatweredesigned,ifnottohumiliate
Russia,atleasttogetthemessageacrossthattheColdWarisoverandwewon.There
areotherseriousthinkers,likeAmbassadorJackMatlock,forexample,whoservedunder
RonaldReagan,whobridleandareindignantatthatnotion.Hehaswrittenveryeloquently
astotheshortcomingsofthatview.

Ontheotherhand,PresidentPutinatonepointproposedanewpost-ColdWarsecurity
architecture.Ithink"fromLisbontoVladivostok"wasthesortofcatchphrasethere.Ithink
I'mrightinsayingthathe,andindeedYeltsinbeforehim,eveninquiredaboutNATO
membershipforRussiaandwerefairlysingularlyrebuffed.Putinhasbeenoneofthemost-
oneofthefavoritethingsattributedtoPutinishisdescriptionofthetragedyofthefallofthe
SovietUnion,buthealsosaysthattheSovietUnioncanneverbereconstructed.

What'sgoingoninthatwholeblame-gamescenariofromtheRussianpointofview?

DMITRITRENIN:Idon'tthinkoneshouldfocusverymuchontheapportionmentofblame.
Let'strytotakethesituationmoreorlessobjectively.

Russia,atthetimeofthedisintegrationoftheSovietUnion,wasintenselyinterestedin
beingdrawnintotheWesterncommunity.Therewasaveryclear,verybroadlysupported
notionthatRussiabelongedintheWest,thatRussiawasaEuropeancountrycoming
home.PresidentYeltsintalkedaboutNATOmembershipforRussia.Hisprimeminister
talkedaboutEUmembershipforRussia.PresidentYeltsinalsoaskedthen-president
GeorgeH.W.BushforabilateralU.S.-Russiamilitaryalliance.

SoRussiawasinterestedintwothings-actually,inonething:integratingitselfintothe
Westernsystem.ItalsowasreadytoacceptU.S.primacyinthatsystem,whichwas
extraordinary,ifyoulike,givenRussia'sattitudetoitssovereignty,independence,andstuff
likethat.

ButthiswasnotreallyappreciatedintheWest,intheUnitedStates,foravarietyof
reasons.Someofthesereasonsareprettyserious.Onewas,"Well,wedon'thavetodo
thatnow,becausewearenotpressedintoit."NATOdidnotcomeaboutassomeone's
intelligentdesign,butratherasaresponsetotheperceivedthreatofacommunisttakeover
inWesternEuropeandtheaggressivenessorwhateverofStalin'sSovietUnion.Thatwas
aresponse,ratherthanapolicythattheUnitedStateshadatthetimeoftheendoftheCold
War.

ThesituationwasabsolutelydissimilarattheendoftheColdWar.TheUnitedStateswas
notthreatenedbyanyone.Russia'sassistancewasnotneededinordertorepelthatthreat.

Secondly,Ithinkpeoplerealized,eventhoughnoteveryonetalkedaboutit,thatRussiamay
beweaktoday,RussiamayacceptU.S.primacyforthetimebeing,butlook20yearsdown
theroad.Russiawillbestronger.Itwillchallenge,onewayoranother,U.S.leadership.If
Russiaiscomingtotheclub,itwillnotbecomingthewayGermanyandJapanwere
coming-overtly,obviouslydefeatedpowers,theU.S.occupation.Russiawasgoingto
positionitselfessentiallyasaco-leaderalongsidetheUnitedStates.Thatwasaclearthreat
toU.SleadershipinNATOandotherWesterncouncils.PeoplethoughtRussiawithin
WesterncouncilswasnotgoingtodomuchgoodtotheUnitedStates.Potentiallyitcould
beaverydisruptiveforce.

DAVIDSPEEDIE:NATO,ofcourse,isinterestinginanumberofways.Irememberinthe
earlytomid-1990s,therewasawholeself-analysisofNATOanditsfuture.Infact,itmay
havebeenSenatorLugarwhosaid,"Outofareaoroutofbusiness."Inotherwords,NATO
hadto-and,ofcourse,withAfghanistanandelsewhere,towhateverextentonewantstosay
successfully,ithastriedtoreconfigure,tosomeextent.

Iwanttocomebacktotheperceptionquestionalittlebit,onbothsides,inaminute,but
clearlyweoughttotalkaboutUkraine,becausethat'swherethemutualangstcomesinto
sharpestfocus,currentlywhat'sgoingoninUkraine.Letmejustthrowoutacoupleof
thoughts.

Firstofall,inourlastconversation,youtalkedaboutmovementsintoUkraineasa
humanitarianinterventiononRussia'spart.Isthatanopinionyoustillshare?

DMITRITRENIN:TherearemanyelementstoRussia'sinvolvementinUkraine.Thereisan
elementofhumanitarianintervention.Thereisanelementofgeopoliticalstruggle.Thereis
anelementofallthecivilwarinwhichRussiaissupportingonesidewithinUkraine.So
therearemanyelementshere.

"Humanitarianintervention"-IthinkishowthisispresentedtotheRussianpeople.Russiais
therebecausetheUkrainianmilitary,throughitsindiscriminateuseofforce,isthreatening
thelivelihoodsandlivesofsomanypeopleinEasternUkraine,andRussiahastosupport
thosepeople.

Again,thisisonlypartofthestory,butthisisthepartofthestorythatgetsthemosttraction
intheRussianmediathesedays.

DAVIDSPEEDIE:Ofcourse,itgetsnotractionintheWesternmedia.Whathappensinthe
WestisthatPoroshenko,asIrememberwhenhewaselected,pledgedtoengagethe
peopleofDonbass,ofEasternUkraine.Ofcourse,theengagementturnedouttobemilitary
engagement.

Again,whatwetendtoreadintheWesternmediaishowRussia,forexample,didnotlive
uptotheMinskagreementfromSeptemberoflastyear,willprobablynotliveuptotheMinsk
agreementjustconcluded,thesecondround.Yetthereareallsortsofwaysinwhich
PoroshenkoandtheKievregimehavealsonotliveduptotheMinskagreementsintermsof
lookingtowardfederalarrangements,humanitarianassistance,somedegreeoffederal
accommodationofvariousthingsthatwereinMinsk,andIthinkweretakenout,butnow
ratifiedbytheRadaorwhateverhaveyou.Soagain,wegettheblamegamecominginto
play.

Inadditiontojustwhat'snotreportedintheWesternmedia,obviouslythereareotherthings
thatseemtoberelevant.Therearewhatarecalledthe"IronHorse"armedcavalryunitsin
theBaltics,theWesternmilitaryunits.ThereareU.S.warshipsandaircraftintheBlack
SeasupportingGeorgia.Arethesenotjustelementsofcontroversialbehavioronourpart
thatstokethefireevenmore?

DMITRITRENIN:IthinkwearewitnessingareturnofaColdWarmilitarystandoff"lite."
Thatisverysad,ofcourse.Butmorethansad,thiscouldleadtomilitarymiscalculation.
Thiscouldleadtotoocloseengagements,toomuchprovocationthatcouldamplifythe
movesoftheotherside.Youhaveadynamicwhichisnotonlyunhelpful,butwhichis
actuallydangerous.

Iwilladdtowhatyouhavejustsaid.TheRussianmovesofincreasingthenumberofflights
bytheRussianAirForce-sometimesthoseflightscomeclosetoWesternaircraft,and
WesternaircraftcomeclosetoRussianbombers.Peoplescrambletodefendtheir
airspaceagainstanintruder.Sometimesthatmayleadtoacollision.Itmayleadtoan
emergencysituation.It'sonethingtodealwiththatsituationwhenthegeneralenvironment
iscalmandsortofpeaceful.

Ofcourse,militarypeopleneedtotrain,noquestion.Theyneedtoexercise,noquestion.
Butundertheconditionsofaquasi-permanentcrisisintherelationship,accidentsofthat
kindcouldleadtoseriousbreachesofpeace.

DAVIDSPEEDIE:Againwearebacktothefuture,backtotheColdWar,inthesensethat,
yes,theyhavetotrain.Butwhenrelationshipsarebetter,shallwesay,whenthereis
dialogue,whenthereisback-channel,whenpeopleknowwhattheotherisdoing,thereisa
wayofsharing,"We'regoingtobedoingthis.We'regoingtobecarryingoutthese
exercises."Inatimelikethis,thesharingofwhatyouaredoingintermsofmilitary
exercisesmaybelost.Isthattrue?

DMITRITRENIN:Ithinkit'strue.Ithinkit'sverytrue.Ithinkwhatyousaidisalsoverytrue-
backtothefuture.Wearerevisitingsomeoftheelementsofalandscapethatwethought
waslonggone.Wethoughtthatitallbelongedinhistory.Weseethathistoryishauntingus.
Historyiscomingback.Thatisprettydepressing.

DAVIDSPEEDIE:Theotherthingis,weare,afterall,theCarnegieCouncilforEthicsin
InternationalAffairs,andoneoftheethicaldocumentsthatweliketorefertowithsome
frequencyareMorgenthau'sprinciplesofrealism.Therearevariousexcellentprinciples
containedtherein:avoidingthecrusadingspiritinforeignpolicy,beingabletoseethings
fromtheotherside'spointofview-notcapitulatingorautomaticallygivingin,but
understandingwheretheothersideiscomingfrom-anddon'tgetyourselfintoaposition
fromwhichthereisnoturningback.

TheseareallsortofethicalaswellasstrategicquestionsthatIthinkwefailtotakeinto
accountwhenitcomestoRussia,andparticularlythequestionofunderstandingtheother
pointofview.Iwrotesomethingrecentlyandreallyfocusedonthis.Thatis,thereisno
countryontheplanetwithwhichtheUnitedStateshasarelationshipthatcomparesto
Russia'srelationship-historical,cultural,ethnic,strategic-withUkraine.

YousaidsomethinginourlastdiscussionthatIreallywouldliketorepeat,becauseitwas
fascinating.Youpointedtoasituation100yearsagointhecivilwarinRussiainvolvingunits
intheeasternpartofUkrainethatwereonthesideofthecommunistsatthattime.Itwasan
interestingsliceofhistorythatshowshowfarthisgoes-well,itgoesbackfurtherthan100
years.Canyoujustrestatethat?

DMITRITRENIN:ThecivilwarthatfollowedtheBolshevikRevolutionin1917perhapswas
foughtmostintenselyinUkraine.Ukrainehadawholerangeofgroupswhofoughtfor
power.SomeofthemwerebonafideUkrainiannationalists,let'ssayofaWesternUkrainian
school.That'sthehotbedofUkrainiannationalism,intheformerconfinesoftheAustro-
HungarianEmpire,inLemberg,whichwasthenthenameforwhatisnowLviv.

ButUkrainealsohaditsfairshareofcommunists,allsortsofsocialists,andalsoallsorts
ofprettyanarchisticelements,someofthemsimplybandits.Allthiswentforthreeyears,
moreorless,theterritoryofUkraine,withitsvariousgovernmentssucceedingoneanother
inplaceslikeKiev,andsometimespeoplealigningnotsomuchwithsomebody,butagainst
somebody.Thereweresomefiguresthatreallyinspiredaweinlaw-abidingcitizensthat
remained,peoplelikeSymonPetliura,becauseoftheclearlyanti-Semiticelementinhis
group.

DAVIDSPEEDIE:And,ofcourse,LembergwasalsoalargeJewishpopulation.

DMITRITRENIN:Yes,butLemberginthosedayswasoutsideoftheRussianempire.Itwas
giventoPolandasaresultoftheFirstWorldWar.

Soitwasahodgepodgeofdifferentgroups.It'sinterestingthatinthosedaysUkrainehad
severalcompetinggovernments.What'snowDonbasswasknownin1918-1919asthe
Donetsk-KrivoyRogPeople'sRepublic.TheDonetskPeople'sRepublicdidexist.It'snota
newname.It'sveryinteresting.Wearenowdiscussingitasifit'sjustarecent
phenomenon.Itisarecentphenomenon,butithassomehistorybehindit.

TherewasanotherrepublicinLviv.ItwascalledWesternUkrainianPeople'sRepublic.
BeforetheareawasattachedtoPoland,theyusedtohavetheirowngovernment-very
briefly,ofcourse.

ThereweresomeRussiangenerals,UkrainianHetmans,Bolsheviks,whoever,whoruled
thevariouspartsofUkraineandviedforpower.And,asIsaid,therewasaverystrong
anarchisticelement.

I'msayingallthatbecausenotallofthatishistory.IfyouthinkthatDonetskandLuganskare
simplyproxiesoftheKremlin,youwillbedeludingyourself.Thereismuchmoretoitthan
justbeingKremlin-friendlyor"pro-Russian."Therearemanyotherthings.Ibelievethat
historymatters,anditmattersalotinUkraine.

DAVIDSPEEDIE:Exactly,andit'snotjustthatthatpartofitisnotnew,ishistory,butinthe
currentsituation,clearlyinWesternUkraineandinKievyouhaveafairlymotleyassembly
ofgenuinereformersofsomerathernastyforces.Someofthemarerepresentedinthe
post-Maidangovernment-Svoboda,whichhasbeencondemnedbytheEuropeanUnionas
racist,xenophobic,andanti-Semiticasrecentlyas2012.Sothereisthishodgepodgeof
characters,inwhatisnow,asitwasthen,asyoudescribed,aprofoundlydividedcountry.

DMITRITRENIN:Right.Thissituation,tosomeextent,continues.We'resittingherein
March2015.Wedon'tknowwhatwillhappeninUkraineoverthenext12months,towhat
extentUkrainewillremaininonepiece,whatthecombinedresultwillbeofheightening
economichardships,mountingsocialtensions,intensifyingpoliticalinfighting.

EvenifyouleavethewarintheEasttoonesideandfocusontherestofUkraine,thingsare
notgoingtobeveryeasy.Thingsarenotgoingtobeveryquiet.AsUkrainiansaddress
thoseverydifficultandseriousissues,quiteafewofthemmaybeledbythisorthatversion
ofanideologythatseekssimplesolutionstothings.

DAVIDSPEEDIE:Backjustforamomenttothequestionofperceptions,amilitary
presenceintheBlackSea,thelackofrecognitionoftheimportance-clearly,somehave
writtenthatUkraineisfarmoreimportantforRussiathanitisfortheWest.That'sseenin
someoftheindecisiveattitudeamongsomeEuropeans,forexample,onthequestionof
armingUkraine.Thereisafairlyhealthydebategoingoninthiscountryaboutwhetherwe
shouldbesendingheavyarmstoUkraine.

Again,howistheWesternperceptionseeninRussia?Clearlytherearesomenotable
exceptionstotheaveragecommentatorinthemainstreampress.JohnMearsheimer,
StephenWaltatHarvardwroteapiecelastweek."WhyArmingKievIsaReally,ReallyBad
Idea,"wasthefairlyevocativetitle.ImentionedJackMatlockbefore.

ButthereisalsoafairlyprevalentviewthatRussiashouldjustgetoverallthissenseof
post-ColdWarangst,NATOexpansion,thebombingofSerbia,missiledefense-"It'sallover
anddonewithjustgetoverwithit."

Mydistinctsenseisthatit'snotthateasyforRussianstotakeupthatpointofview,
particularlyinthecurrentsituationwithUkraine.Again,mysenseisthatthecondemnation
ofRussiaonallsortsoffronts,fromhumanrightstoconductinUkraine,thesanctions,of
course,andthethreats-thisisasortofcocktailthatonlyplaysintothehandsofanti-
Westernfeeling.

DMITRITRENIN:Ithinkthatithasalreadydonethatjob.Anti-Westernfeelinghasnever
beenasstronginthepost-ColdWaryearsasitisnow.Ithinkthatforavastnumberof
Russians,theUnitedStateshasreemergedastheprincipaladversary,whichisavery,very
sadfact.

Insomeways,thisisajudgmentthat-letmeputitthisway.Itwouldbewrongtoascribe
everythingtotheKremlinpropaganda.Alotofprettywell-educatedRussians,peoplewith
enoughtimeandenoughresourcestostudyinternationalrelationsthemselves,havecome
totheconclusionthatRussiaisessentiallyseenasthecountrythatlosttheColdWar,the
countrythathadtopaythepriceofdefeat,thecountrythathadbasicallynorighttoprotect
itsgeopoliticalinterestsoutsideofitsbordersthattherewerenolimitstohowfarNATO
expansionshouldgo.Russiawasnottobeconsultedonthatissue.Russiawasnottobe
consultedontheissueoftheenlargementoftheEuropeanUnion.

Again,thesovereigntyofallstatesbetweenRussiaandtheWestmatteredalot.But
Russia'suneaseorsuspicionsorwhathaveyouwithregardtotheWestcomingcloser
andclosertoitsownborderswasseenasessentiallyevidencethatRussiahasnotbeen
abletoreformitself.IfacountrylikeRussiaseestheUnitedStatesanditsalliesas
potentiallyanadversary,thenthereissomethingwrongwithRussia.IftheRussiansmilitate
againstNATOenlargement,itmeansthattheyhavesomenewimperialistdesigns
themselves.

Soyouhavethat.

DAVIDSPEEDIE:That'sanoddsortofswitchingofroles,isn'tit?Onesideisexpandingto
Russia'sborders,butwhenRussiaprotests,theyaretheoneswhoarethenew
imperialists.Thereisalogicalfallacytheresomewhere.

DMITRITRENIN:Thiswholeargumentisbuilton,Ithink,averyimportantstatement,avery
importantfoundation,andthatstatementrunslikethis:Therecanbenomoralequivalence
betweenRussiaandtheWest.That,Ithink,iskeytothenewnarrative.Ifthereisnomoral
equivalence,itmeansthattheWestcandoanythingbecausewhateveritdoes,itiseither
goodorwillbecorrectedbytheWestitself.Russiahasabsolutelynoright,nomoralrightat
all,toquestionanything,becauseit'sstillacountryonprobation.Itusedtobeacountryon
probation.Nowit'sthecriminalagain.Theoldcriminalhascomeback,theoldconvict.

That,Ithink,iskey.ItdoesnotonlypertaintoRussiaandtheWestitpertainstoRussia
andanyoneelse-RussiaandUkraine.Therecanbenomoralequivalence.Ukraineis
alwayshigher.Georgiaisalwayshigher.YounameanycountrywithwhichRussiamay
haveaproblemitwouldstandonahighermoralgroundintheeyesofthepeoplewho
adoptthatvisionthanRussiaitself.

DAVIDSPEEDIE:IntheStateoftheUnionaddressinJanuary,PresidentObamawaspretty
muchdismissive,bothintermsofsubstanceandtimeallottedtoRussia.Hesaidtwo
things.ThefirstwasthatbasicallyRussiawaschronicallyisolatedfromtherestofthe
world,andthesecondwasthatRussiawasaneconomicbasketcaseRussiawasin
economicfreefall.Ican'tremembertheexactwording.

Justtotakealookattheseinorder,itseemstomethat-well,what'sinterestingisthatabout
30yearsago,IrememberitbeingclaimedthatwewerepushingChinaintotheSoviet
camp.Nowitseemsit'stheotherwayaroundwe'repushingRussiaintotheChinacamp.
IthasalwaysbeenarguedthatRussia-Chinatogetherisnotalogicalpartnership,butitwas
onethatwasbeingrenderedinevitableorboundtohappen.

Obviouslyyouhadthebigoildealafewmonthsago,the$400billionoildeal,andthenthe
jointnavalexercisesthatwereannounced,Iguess,lastmonthorearlierintheyear,where
theChineseofficialwasquoted"resultedfromconcernwithU.S.attemptstoreinforceits
militaryandpoliticalinfluenceintheAsia-PacificRegion."

SonotjustChina,butitseemsthatwithRussiareachingouttoVietnam,toIndia,evento
Japan-isRussiareallysoisolatedatthispoint?

DMITRITRENIN:Russiaisnotisolated,Idon'tthink.Idon'tthinkit'spossibletoisolatea
countryofRussia'ssizeinternationally.EvenintheWest,it'snotisolated.Therearevery
clearproblemsinRussia'srelationswithWesterncountries,butIthink,asthechancellorof
Germanysaidmanytimes,youcannothavesecurityinEuropewithoutRussia,oreven
againstRussia,youcannothavesecurityinEurope.WhenthegoinggottoughinUkraine,
thechancellorofGermanyandthepresidentofFranceflewtoMoscowtodiscussthings
withVladimirPutin.

Laterthisyear,VladimirPutinwillbehostingtwoforumsinthecityofUfa,whichisjustwest
oftheUrals.OneforumwillbethatoftheShanghaiCooperationOrganizationthatunites
China,Russia,thecountriesofCentralAsia,andtowhichtwomajorcountriesare
accedingthissummer.OneisIndia.TheotheroneisPakistan.TheShanghaiCooperation
Organization,withRussiainthechair,ismovingtobecometheprincipalforumfor
continentalAsia.Itwillhaveinthesecondhalfofthisyearallthemajorpowersof
continentalAsiaasmembers:China,India,Russia.WecanaddPakistan.Wecanadda
fewothercountries.TurkeyandIranareveryinterestedingettingclosertothatorganization.

DAVIDSPEEDIE:Hasn'tIranhadanobserverstatusatsomepoint?

DMITRITRENIN:Iranhasanobserverstatus.Iranhasdesiredforalongtimetojoin.There
isaformalobstacleofUNsanctionsimposedonIranthatpreventsIranfrombeing
accepted.Butatsomepoint,thisthingmaygiveandIranmaybewelcomedasamember.

TheothergroupthatPutinwillbefetinginUfaisBRICS,ofcourse-Brazil,Russia,India,
China,andSouthAfrica.That'stheclubofthenon-Westernemergingeconomies.

RussiaisalsoreachingouttoseveralU.S.friendsandallies.Mr.Putin'svisittoJapanison.
Justlastmonth,aJapanesedeputyforeignministerwasinMoscowpreparinggroundfor
thattrip.RussiaisactivelypursuingrelationswithSouthKorea,anotherU.S.ally,aswellas
NorthKorea.RussiahassignedmajoreconomicdealswithTurkey,anotherU.S.ally,which
isanimportanteconomicpartnertoRussia,alsoapartnerinenergytrade.Egypthasseen
itsrelationshipwithRussiaimproveoverthelastyearorso.Iranian-Russianrelationshave
rarelybeensoactivelypursuedbythetwogovernments.

Apartfromthat,RussiahasbeentryingtowinnewfriendsinplaceslikeLatinAmerica,
SoutheastAsia,andelsewhere.EvenwithinEurope,Mr.Putinhasmadeararevisitthese
daystoHungarytotalkenergy.HehasreceivedthepresidentofCyprusinMoscow,who
basicallyofferedRussiabasingrightsfortheRussiannavyonhisisland.Russia'srelations
withIsraelaresolid,andtheyhavenotbeenaffectedsofarbytherapidandmassive
deteriorationinU.S.-Russianrelations.

SothepictureisverydifferentfromRussiabeingaroguestate,inisolation,reelinginits
owncageandunabletomoveanywhere.Thesituationisquite,quitedifferentthanthat.

DAVIDSPEEDIE:That'sterrific.Thankyou.

Brieflyontheeconomy,theideathatRussia'seconomyiscollapsing-itwasreportednottoo
longagothatMoody's,therespectedevaluation-typefirm,hassaidthatRussia'sreserves
areenoughtocoverexternaldebt,andthemovetothefloatingcurrencywilltosomeextent
mitigate,obviously,thespiralingdownofoilprices,thefluctuationsinoilprices.Clearlyoilis
stabilizingabit.It'snotjustRussiathatissufferingfromthis.

Again,itwouldseemtomethatit'sUkraineandthecollapseofthehyrvniathatperhaps
oughttoberegardedastheeconomicbasketcase,notnecessarilyRussiaatthispoint.

DMITRITRENIN:Well,RussiaandUkraineareinverydifferenteconomicsituations.
There'snoquestionthatRussiaisfacingthemostsevereeconomictestin15yearsright
now.ThekindofresponsethattheRussiangovernmentwillultimatelygivetothatcrisiswill
determinethefutureoftheRussianeconomy,andmaybemorethanjustthefutureofthe
Russianeconomyintheyearstocome.SoIwouldn'twanttominimizethechallengesthat
Russiaisfacing.

Ontheotherhand,thiscrisiscouldbeasalutaryone,ifproperlyused.Ifyouwanttoreform
youreconomy,diversifyit,makeitmodern,oilat$100isnotyourfriend,notevenoilat$80.
Ifoilhits$60,$50,or$40,thisiswhenyouhavenochoicebuttodiversify,buttoinnovate
anddootherthings.WhetherRussiawilldoitornotwilldependverymuchontheRussian
governmentandontheRussianpeople.

WhatI'msayingisthatthecrisisforthefirsttimeisgivingRussiaanopportunitytoweanoff
thisoverlybigrelianceonoilandgasandhydrocarbonsmorebroadly.

Ithink,asaRussian,youfeelthatyouhavenotdoneagreatjobwithyoureconomywhen
theeconomicsituationwasgood.TheRussianeconomytodayisnotwhatitcanbe.Ifyou
usethecrisistochangetheeconomy,tostartproducingmore,todevelopyourown
domesticmarketmore,todevelopyourparticularlymedium-andsmall-sizeenterprisesif
youmanagetode-monopolizeyoureconomysothatit'snottotallycontrolledbyafew
monopolieshereandthere,thenIthinkthiscrisiswillgodowninhistoryasagoodcrisisfor
Russia.

Ithinkpeoplearepreparedtosuffer,buttheywillnotsuffersimplytopleasethefatcats.If
theyseethatsomethinggoodiscomingoutofthegovernment'spolicies,thentheywould
acceptatemporarylossinlivingstandards,andtheywillbecompensatedbyadifferent
kindofaneconomyandadifferentkindofafutureforthemselvesandtheirchildren.

DAVIDSPEEDIE:It'sanexcellentprescription,Dmitri.Isitgoingtobefilled,especially
whenyoutalkaboutmonopolies?

DMITRITRENIN:Ihaveaproblemwiththat.Russiaisruledbythesamepeopletodayasit
hasbeenruledforthepast15years.Thepeoplewhomissedtheprevious15years,inmy
view,shouldnotnecessarilybetrustedtoreformnow.

ButI'mkeepinganopenmind.Thingsarechanging.Peoplemaychange.Peoplemaybe
rotatedoutofpower.Russiamayfinditselfinasituationinwhichitwillhaverunoutofall
badoptions.Whenyouhaveyourbacktothewallandallthebadoptionsthatyouhad
exercisedtotrytobuyyourselfmoretimesothatthingsremainedthesame,allthese
optionshavebeenexercised,thenyouhaveonlythegoodoptions.Butthegoodoptions
alwaystendtobethehardestandthemostdifficultones.

Idon'tknow.AsIsaid,IhavenoillusionsaboutthepeopleinpowerinRussiatoday,notthe
peoplewhowouldbeabletodo-Ithinkthereiscapacityforreform,noquestion.Russiahas
abodyofveryprofessional,veryexperiencedpeople.I'mtalkingmoreaboutthepolitical
masters.Thepoliticalmastershavelittleinterest,frankly,inreform,becauseitgoesagainst
thegrain.Itgoesagainsttheirowninterestsoften.We'llsee.

DAVIDSPEEDIE:Twofinalquestions,oneofwhichdealswithinRussiaitself.Youhave
indicatedthattherearevarioussortoflevelsor,shallwesay,differentkindsofforceswho
arepullingstringsorhavetheearoftheKremlinandsoon.

IthinkyouknowthatwehereattheCouncilforthelasttwoyearshavebeenembarkedona
majorprojectthatlooksatthenewEurasianisminRussiaandthewaythathasspreadinto
someoftheextremerightmovementsinEurope,basicallyacrossEuropeasfarasFrance,
theNetherlands,andsoonandsoforth.It'salittlecomplicatedinaplacelikeGreece,
wherethereseemstobesomedialoguewithboththeextremerightandthenewleftist
government,Syriza.It'scleartheyhaveaverycomplicatedsituation.

Canyousayalittlebitaboutthismovementthatclearlyis"anti-Atlanticist,"which,of
course,meanstheUKandtheU.S.basically?Howconnectedisitinthecorridorsof
power?Towhatextentdoitschiefproponents-andhere,obviously,thenameAleksandr
Duginhascomeupwithsomefrequency-whatsortofroledothesepeopleplay?How
influentialarethey?

DMITRITRENIN:Ithinkthattheyhavebeenabletorisefrombeingmarginal,underdogs,
almostirrelevantinthe1990s,tobeingverymuchpartofthemainstream,tobeingvery
closetoPresidentPutinandhisentourage.Thepeoplewhosharethoseviews-many
peoplewhosharethoseviews-formpartofwhatisknownastheIzborskClub,whichis
namedafterafortressontheRussianwesternborderintheBaltics,amedievalfortress.I
thinkthesepeoplehaveseentheirtheoriesvindicatedbywhathappenedinthelast25
years.Theyarehavingaballtoday.

Again,thisismoreofanintellectualmovement.Itfeedsintothegeneralphilosophical
environmentthatinformstheleadershipofRussia.Iwouldn'texaggeratethespecific
influenceofindividualmembersonthedecision-makingprocess.TheymaybeamongMr.
Putin'sfavoriteintellectualstoday,butMr.Putinhasremained,aboveall,apragmatist.

Eurasianismalsohasagoodanswer,atleastfromthestandpointofEurasianismitself,
abouttheWest.TheWestisnottobetrusted.YouneedtostanduptotheWest.Theywill
onlyrespectforceandtheyonlyrespectstrength.Soyouhavetobestrong,notonly
militarily,butalsoineconomicandotherways.

Idon'tthinktheyhaveagoodanswertotheriseofChina,anothergreatpowerthatmeritsa
lotofattention.Russiatraditionallyinsistsonbeingindependentandsovereign.Itdoesn't
mattersovereigntowardwhom,sovereigntowardthemostpowerfulnationofthetime.
Todayit'stheUnitedStatesofAmerica,sosovereigntyvis--vistheUnitedStatesisatop
goal.

ButinEurasia,itisChinathat'srising.It'sChinathatisbecomingthehegemonofEurasia.
YoumentionedPutin'sideasof"LisbontoVladivostok"asGreaterEurope.Therealitytoday
istheemergence,inmyview,ofwhatIwouldcallGreaterAsia,fromShanghaitoSt.
Petersburg,withChinaverymuchdrivingtheprocess.Eurasianistsareyettogivean
answertotheChinaissue.

DAVIDSPEEDIE:Abigquestion.

DMITRITRENIN:Itis,andaseriousone.

DAVIDSPEEDIE:Finally,backtotheBobLegvold's"thelossofourusefulambiguity"and
thefinger-pointingandsoon,andwhatthathasmeant.Clearlytherearenumerousmissed
opportunitiesintermsofglobalissuesinwhichtheUnitedStatesandRussiareallyhaveto
engageeachother,everythingfromclimatechangetocatastrophicterrorism-Russia,I
think,hashadmoreincidentsofterroristattackthananyothercountrysincetheendofthe
ColdWar-and,ofcourse,veryobviously,anissuethatyouthinkaboutalot,thearms
control,theIntermediate-RangeNuclearForcesTreatyandothersthatmaybeunraveling.
Istherenoback-channelcommunicationatthispoint?

Lookintoyourcrystalballandtrytogiveussomehope.

DMITRITRENIN:Ithinkit'sverysadthatwedon'thavethisback-channel.It'sverysadthat
theonlychannelthatseemstobeworking,atleastvisibly,istheonebetweenSecretary
KerryandMinisterLavrov.Thepresidentstalkoverthephone,butveryinfrequently,andI
don'tthinktheconversationpleaseseitherparty.

Ithinkthatinorderfortherelationshiptobestabilized-beforeitgetsimproved,Ithinkwe
needtohaveitstabilizedandhaveitfollowsomemutuallyagreedupontemporaryrules.
Forthat,Ithinkweneedsomelegworkandweneedsomebrainwork.Thiscanhardlybe
donebypeoplewhoareformallyongovernment'sduty,eitherinWashingtonorinMoscow.

Ithinkthat,ratherthanthat,trustedrepresentativesofthetwocountries'political
establishmentsneedtobeencouragedtoengageinseriousdiscussionsofvariousissues,
totallyopen-eyed,withoutanyillusionwhatsoever,butwithaclearaimofestablishingareas
whereU.S.-Russianinteractionisactuallyfeasible,wherethereisenoughofcommon
interestthatwouldmakethetwocountriescooperateinabonafidefashion.It'simportant
thatthepeoplewhoareleadingthatchargehaveeasyaccesstotheirpresidents.

Ihavesomethoughtsandideasaboutwhomightfulfillthatrole.Iknowthatafewattempts,
earlyattempts,havealreadybeenmadeinthatdirection.Muchofthat,Ithink,willhaveto
remain,forthetimebeingatleast,offtherecord,andpeoplewillnotbegivingmany
interviews.Butunlesswemanagethismechanism,installitandmanageit,we'regoingto
havearelationshipthatwillbesubjectedtosurprisesandthatcanbesuddenlywreckedby
astraybullet.Andthengodhelpus.

DAVIDSPEEDIE:Iwillresistthetemptationtoaskyoufornamesoftheseconstructive
individuals,since,asyousay,ithastobeofftherecord.

OurguesthasbeenDmitriTrenin,directoroftheCarnegieMoscowCenteroftheCarnegie
EndowmentforInternationalPeace.

Dmitri,thankyousomuchforyourtime,foryourinsightsonsomanyelementsofthisvery
complexsituationthatprevails,andforyourwisdom.

DMITRITRENIN:David,it'sapleasure.Thankyousomuch,

[returntoContents]

#7
RussiaDirect
www.russia-direct.org
March7,2015
LegvoldandTrenin:HowtofixtheUS-Russianrelationship
AtarecentsymposiumhostedbyTuftsUniversity,twoleadingRussiaexperts-Robert
LegvoldandDmitriTrenin-discussedthefutureoftheU.S.-Russiarelationshipandwhatit
willtaketosolvetheUkrainiancrisis.
EkaterinaZabrovskaya

ThereislittlechanceformovingU.S.-Russiarelationsforwardoutofthecurrentcrisisdue
tofundamentaldifferencesinhowbothnationsviewtheworld,sayRobertLegvoldof
ColumbiaUniversityandDmitriTreninofCarnegieMoscow.Theonlywayoutistostart
expertdialoguebetweenthetwocountriestohelpdecisionmakersfromMoscowand
Washingtoncomeupwithamutuallyagreeablesolution.

ThediscussionbetweenLegvoldandTreninwasacenterpieceofthefour-dayEPIIC
(EducationforPublicInquiryandInternationalCitizenship)Symposium"Russiainthe21
century"lastweek.OrganizedbytheInstituteforGlobalLeadershipatTuftsUniversity,with
thesupportoftheCarnegieCorporationofNewYork,theconferenceattractedleading
RussiaexpertstodiscusstopicsrelatedtoMoscow'sroleinthemodernworldorderand
thefutureofRussia-U.S.relations.

HereisanabridgedversionoftheLegvold-TrenindialogueattheEPIICSymposium.

IsthisanewColdWar?

RobertLegvold:Iamsomebodywho'sarguing-nottotheentirepleasureofmy
professionalcolleagues,peopleingovernmentwhetherinMoscoworhere-thatweare
indeedinanewColdWar.

Therearefeaturesofwhatishappeningnowintherelationshipthatdoeshaveclose
resemblancetotheearlyphasesoftheoriginalColdWar.

WhyIhavestartedthinkinginthesetermswasbecauseDmitriTrenininMarchof2014
wroteapiecethatwascalled"WelcometoColdWarII."

Withinafewmonthshechangedhismind.HesaidtheColdWarwasnottheright
comparison.WhiletheoriginalColdWarforthemostpartremainedcold,it'snotentirely
clearthatthisonewill.

So,Dmitri,wheredoyoustandtoday?

DmitriTrenin:Istandbywhatyou'vejustdescribed.Ibelievethathistoricalanalogiescould
beusefulbutonlytoanextent.

ItwasimportantlastMarchtosoundalarmbellsthatCrimeaandUkrainewerenotjust
temporarytransientphenomena,thattherewassomethingveryserioushappeningjustin
frontofoureyes.

TheColdWaranalogyinthosedayswasanappropriateone.Butthedeeperyoulookinto
that,themorethisanalogybecomesunhelpful.

Weareinconfrontation.Thebadthingaboutthisconfrontationisthatit'sheldverymuchon
theRussianside.Idon'tthinkthattheU.S.believesthatthisisaconfrontationwithRussia.
Foralotofpeople,Russiaisathreatbutnotabigone.As[U.S.PresidentBarack]Obama
said,somethingbetweenEbolaandISIS[IslamicStateofIraqandtheGreaterSyria].

ThestakesareverydifferentforWashingtonandMoscow.Thisinjectsaveryimportant
aspectofasymmetryintothesituation.

So,Iamdeeplyworriedandconcerned.Ithinkthisconfrontationcouldbemoredangerous
itcouldgetoutofhand.Itcouldpushusinadirectionthatpeopledonotanticipate.
BecauseduringtheColdWartherewasafeelingsharedbyeveryonethatitwasdead
serious.

Ifit'snotanewColdWar,thenwhatisit?

R.L.:Frommypointofview,therelationshiphasgoneoverthecliff.

Thereissomethingthathaschangedinthelastyear.

Throughoutmuchofthepost-ColdWarperiod,therewasatendencyonbothsidesto
operatewitha"usefulambiguity."Thatis,wedidn'tknowwhethertheothersidewasfriend
orfoe.

Nowthereisasymmetry,Dmitri.Eachcountryhasdefinedtheothersideasanadversary.
Thisisdeterminingourpoliciesmorethananythingelseinthepastandwillaffectthewayin
whichweredesignNATOtodealwithRussiaasathreat.

ThereasonwhyIusethephrase"ColdWar"isbecauseonlywiththatnotioncanyoubegin
toconveytheconsequencesofwhat'shappening.

ThetendencyintheU.S.istostartwithanassumptionthatthisisutterlyunequal:Russia
doesn'tmattertousinthewaywemaymattertothem.

Buttheconsequencesofhavinggottentothispointarenotmerelythedangersaround
UkrainebutaroundinstabilityinCentralEuropeasawhole.Itistheunpredictableregion
suddenlyagain.

D.T.:OneotherdistinctionbetweenthesituationtodayandtheColdWaristhat,asseen
fromthispartoftheworld,nocompromiseispossible.

IntheColdWaryoucouldcompromisewith[SovietleadersJoseph]Stalin,[Leonid]
Brezhnev,and[Nikita]Khrushchev.Compromisingwith[RussiaPresidentVladimir]Putinis
somehownotacceptable.

So,Iamprettypessimisticonwhereweare.

ThisisclearlymorethanjustaboutUkraine.It'sabouttwofundamentalthings.

ThethingfundamentalfortheU.S.isthatRussiaischallengingU.S.leadership,essentially
theworldorderthattheU.S.leads.Nomajorthingscangounpunishediftheygoagainst
thegrainofthepeoplehere.ThefundamentalthingforRussiaistheabilitytomovearound
withoutanyconstraintsanddowhattheRussianleadershipthinksisimportantforthe
Russiannationalinterest.

HowdidRussiaandtheUSgettothecurrentcrisis?

D.T.:We'vebeenbadlyservedbytheidea-averypopularoneinbothcountries-thatthe
U.S.,asseenfromRussia,isinadeepdeclineandthatRussia,asseenfromtheU.S.,has
beenindeclineforthepast25yearsandwillcontinuetobeindecline.

Thismisinformsusandpushesusalongaprettynarrowanddangerousroad.

R.L.:Frankly,itdoesn'tmakeanysensethattheU.S.-Russianrelationshipiswhereitis
today.

Iwasatameetingandoneoftheparticipantssaidtome:"So,areyougoingtogoandtryto
makesenseoutofsenseless?"Andthat'sessentiallywhat'sinvolved.

Howdidwegooverthecliffinourrelationship?Iampreparedtoplaceprimary
responsibilityforthefinalpushovertheclifftothedecisiontoannexCrimeafortwo
reasons.

It'sthefirsttimeamajorpowerhasliterallyseizedtheterritoryofasovereigncountrysince
WorldWarII.Secondly,in1994whenUkrainegaveupitsnuclearweaponsandsignedthe
Budapestmemorandum,thecommitmentintheU.S.,GreatBritain,andRussiawasto
guaranteeUkrainiansovereignty.AndnowwearetryingtocontroltheIraniannuclear
programandpartofthedealissecurityassurance.

Butwedidn'tgethereonlybecauseofwhathappenedbetweenNovember-Decemberof
2014andFebruaryof2015inUkraine.

WhateverthenatureoftheregimeinRussia,whateveryouthinkofitsmotivations,wegot
herebythethingswedidandwedidn'tdofor20years.Becausewedidn'tunderstandwhat
thestakesare.

D.T.:IwouldagreewithyouthattheconflictinUkraineisaresultof20plusyearsoffailures.

Thebestwaytomakesurethatthethereisnolongeraconfrontationbetweentwopowers
istointegratethepowerthatfounditselfadifficultsituationintoawidersystemthatitwould
feelcomfortablewith.

ThiswasdonetoFranceacoupleofyearsaftertheNapoleonicwarsandtoWestGermany
aftertheSecondWorldWar.ThatwasnotdonetoGermanyaftertheFirstWorldWar.

Foranumberofreasonspeopledidn'tthinkthatRussiawasworthspendingtoomuch
money,capital,energytomakeitasolidpartnerwithinanintegratedsystem.

TheintegratedsystemthattheRussianswantedwassupposedtobeasecuritysystem.

OnegoodreasonwasthatpeoplewerenotsurethatRussiawouldplaybytherulesif
integratedintothissystem.

WhateverwecansayaboutalliancesthattheU.S.leads,whateveryouthinkaboutRussia
ithasneversofarrecognizedaleadertoitselfintheoutsideworld.

That'swhereIseeafundamentalproblem.

IthoughtthatwegotherebecausewefailedtointegrateRussia.ButthenI'maskingthis
question:"WasitpossibletointegrateRussiaonthetermsthatwouldhavebeen
acceptablefortheU.S.?"AndtheanswerthatIhaveis:"Unlikely."

Howcanwegetoutofthecurrentcrisis?

D.T.:Idon'tknowwhetherwecaneventalkaboutawayforwardnow.

Ithinkthebestwecanhopeforisthatthemoredangerouspathwillnotbetaken.

Wehavetomakeeveryefforttomakesurethattheprettyshakycease-fireineastern
Ukrainetodaystays,thatit'ssolidifiesovertime,thattheconflictdoesn'tescalate,enlarge
orbecomeareallarge-scalewar.

R.L.:IntermsofDmitri'spessimism,Ithinkintheneartermthelikelihoodofeitherside
backingdownfromitscurrentpositionandtakingsignificantstepstomoveofftheroadwe
areonisveryunlikely.

NottheleastbecauseintheU.S.thepressureinthemediaandCongressisintheother
directioneveniftheadministrationwaswillingtogoinamoreconstructivedirection.

Iamnotoptimisticatthemomenteither.ButIdothinkitistimeinthesecircumstances
whenuniversitiesandresearchorganizationsneedtobegindoingsomething.

Howdowegoinanotherdirection?Youcan'tbegindoingitunlesswethinkthatit'surgent.
Unlesswethinkthatthestakesarehigh.

It'snotjustabouttheRussia-U.S.relationship.Itisgoingtoaffectothers.
[returntoContents]

#8
Irrussianality
http://irrussianality.wordpress.com
December31,2014
THENEEDFORSTRATEGICEMPATHY
ByPaulRobinson
PaulRobinsonisaprofessorintheGraduateSchoolofPublicandInternationalAffairsat
theUniversityofOttawa.PaulRobinsonholdsanMAinRussianandEasternEuropean
StudiesfromtheUniversityofTorontoandaD.Phil.inModernHistoryfromtheUniversityof
Oxford.Priortohisgraduatestudies,heservedasaregularofficerintheBritishArmy
IntelligenceCorpsfrom1989to1994,andasareserveofficerintheCanadianForcesfrom
1994to1996.HealsoworkedasamediaresearchexecutiveinMoscowin1995.

AmongthebookswaitingtobereadonmybookshelfisASenseoftheEnemy:TheHigh-
StakesHistoryofReadingYourRival'sMind,byZacharyShore.Thiscaughtmyattention
becausefifteenyearsagoShorelivedonthesamecorridorasmeatStAntony'sCollege,
Oxford,whilewewerebothwritingourdoctoraltheses.Also,thesubjectmatterfitswellinto
myforthcomingcourseonIrrationalityandForeignPolicyDecisionMaking.Thebookisa
studyindecisionmaking,andjudgingfromwhatIhaveskimmedsofar,itadvancesafairly
simplethesis:successfulforeignpolicydependsuponwhatShorecalls'strategicempathy',
thatistosayanabilitytounderstandwhatmotivatesyourenemy.Thisdoesnotmean
imaginingwhatyouwoulddoifyouwereinyourenemy'splace.Ratheritmeansreally
understandingthem,theirdesires,theconstraintsunderwhichtheyoperate,andsoon.

Iwouldtakethisfurtherandsaythatstrategicempathyisimportantnotjustwhendealing
with'enemies'butinpoliticsmoregenerally,andthatitispreciselythelackofsuch
empathywhichhaspulledRussia-Westrelationsintothemesswhichtheyaretoday.

TheresponseofbothRussiaandWesternstatestothecrisisinUkrainehasbeentothrow
insultsatoneanotherandtoresorttoconspiracytheories.TomanyintheWest,Russian
behaviourinUkraineistheproductofadeliberateplanofimperialexpansiontomany
Russians,thecivilwarinUkraineistheresultofalong-termAmericanstrategyto
destabilizeandweakenanypotentialrivals.WithinUkraine,thecurrentgovernmentviews
thewarassolelytheconsequenceofRussianaggression,whereastherebelsview
themselvesasvictimsofgovernmentbarbarity.Nomatterwhoyouare,somebodyelseis
entirelytoblame.Noeffortismadetounderstand,letaloneempathizewiththeotherside's
pointofview.
Underlyingallthisisasenseonbothsidesofmoralrighteousness.Thedivisionoftheworld
intogoodguys-us-andbadguys-them-discouragesanyefforttopromotestrategic
empathy,forthelattercomestoberegardedasappeasingevil.Butstrategicempathydoes
notrequirethatoneconcedethattheothersideisright.Rather,throughabetter
understandingofothers'actions,oneincreasesone'schancesofpursuingsuccessful
policies.

So,forinstance,thegovernmentwhichcametopowerinUkraineinFebruary2014
arrogantlyignoredtheconcernsofthoseprotestingagainstitonthegroundsthattheywere
simplystoogesofMoscowanddidnotrepresentgenuinepublicopinion.Theresultwascivil
war.Thegovernmentwouldhavedonebettertounderstandthatsomeofitscitizensdid
rejectitandneededreassurance.

Meanwhile,WesternstatesfailedtounderstandhowimportantUkraineistoRussia,and
thusfailedtounderstandhowRussiawaslikelytoreacttotheforcibleoverthrowofthe
Ukrainiangovernment.Fixatedon'Russianaggression',Westernleadersmadenoeffortto
understandtheopinionsofthosefightingagainstKiev.Consequently,Westernleaders
reinforcedtheinflexibilityoftheUkrainiangovernment,andsomadeabadsituationeven
worse.

Russianleadershavealsomademistakes.TheannexationofCrimeaincitedthe
governmentsinKievandtheWesttoseetheeventsinEasternUkraineasarepetitionof
thoseinCrimea,andsotoviewtheprotestsagainstKievasbeingnotanexpressionof
legitimateopinionbutratheraprecursortoRussianinvasion.Russianactionsinstilledfear
andencouragedintransigence.Moscowdoesnotseemtounderstandthis.

IfIhaveabloggingwishfor2015,then,itisforbothRussiaandtheWesttotryharderto
understandhowtheworldlooksfromtheother'spointofview.Moralcertitudemaybe
emotionallysatisfying,butstrategicempathyisfarmorelikelytoleadtopeace.

[returntoContents]

#9
Subject:WhatisgoingoninRussia?TheviewsandvaluesofordinaryRussians
Date:Thu,17Dec2015
From:KarenHewitt<karen.hewitt@conted.ox.ac.uk>

IamattachingthetalkwhichIhavegiven(withadaptations)tovariousgroupsofnon-
professionalswhoareinterestedinRussia.Someprofessionalsintheaudience,
sometimes,butitwasnotintendedforthem.

---

WhatisgoingoninRussia?
TheviewsandvaluesofordinaryRussians(2ndJuly2015)
ByKarenHewitt
Lecturer,OxfordUniversityDepartmentofContinuingEducation

Ihavespentthelast26yearstryingtoexplainBritaintotheRussiansand-toamore
hesitantextent-RussiatotheBritish.SinceIspenduptotwomonthsayearincitiesall
overRussia,livingandtalkingwithRussians,andnotseeingorspeakingtoother
westerners,Imaymisunderstandalot,butIamnotlikeajournalistlookingforastoryand
listeningtootherjournalists.

WhatwehearinBritain-andinWesternmediagenerally-aboutwhatisgoingoninRussia
issodifferentfromwhatIobserveinallthosecitiesandtowns,intheuniversitiesand
schoolsandpublicoffices,intheshopsandmarketsthatIfeelanobligationtochallenge
ourmedia.ThesituationhasbeenhugelyexacerbatedbytheUkrainecrisis-inwhich
outrageousthingshavebeensaidonbothsides-butwithfarlessevidenceandfarmore
falsificationonthe'Westernside'.Thattherearesignificantliesinthemassmediaofboth
countriesisclear.Thatthereisdisturbingignoranceonoursideisclear.SoIdecidedtobe
moresystematicthanusualinexploringwhatordinarythoughtfulRussiansbelievedwas
goingon.Toasklotsofquestionsandtotakelotsofnotes.
AbriefhistoryofRussiaasseenbyRussianssincethe1970s.

Manygenerationsamongmycorrespondentsbutthisbackgroundshouldhelp

AnyonebornintheSovietUnioninthe1960sand1970swouldhavespenttheirchildhoodin
apredictableworld.Theyhadahome,albeitoftenacommunalhome,food,electricityand
(usually)runningwater,paidemployment,seriouseducation,anationalhealthservice,
cheaptravelwithinthecountry,longholidaysinthesummer,andanethoswhich
encouraged'joining'thingsanddoingthingstogether.Lotsofsummercamps,lotsofsport,
lotsofgroup'voluntarywork',lotsofjointprojectsinwhichgrown-upsandchildrenjoined
(suchasbuildingcommunitycentres.)

Thislifewasreassuringinmanyways.Itdidnotencourageindividualdecisions,work
basedonenterpriseandpersonalinitiative.Itdidnotencouragedissent.ByEuropean
standards(thoughnotbythestandardsofmostoftheworld)whatwasavailableinhomes
anddomesticproductswaslimitedandshoddysteppingoutoflinecouldbeandoftenwas
punishedthoughwithnothinglikethewidespreadferocityoftheStalinyears.Formost
grown-upsitwasamatteroflookingoveryourshoulderandteachingyourchildrentobe
discreet.Butformostchildrenthemselves,thevirtuesoftheSovietsystem-stability,lotsof
attentiontochildrenasagroup,andafirmideologyorbeliefcouchedinoptimisticand
cheerfulterms-gavethemahappychildhood.

InmyearlyyearsinRussia(Iwentfirstin1984)andthenannuallyormoreoftenfrom1988)
Iwasatfirstsuspiciousofthesewidelyprevalentaccountsofhappychildhoods.What
aboutthosewhowereoftenunhappyortraumatised-byfamilies,byindividuals,bysocial
expectations?.TheSovietUnionmusthavehadnumbersofunhappychildren,especially
thosetrappedbyillnessorthealcoholismoftheirparents.Butthesystemwaschild-friendly
initsvaluesandpractices.Thedifficultiesandrestraintsbecomemuchmoreobviousas
thosechildrengrewup-ifyouweresomebodywhowantedtoargue,whowantedtogo
yourownway,whowantedtotakeinitiativesorwholoathedcommittees.

Mostadultswereprobablyreasonablycontentwithinworkgroups-andtherewasworkfor
everyone,evenifitwasnotverystrenuousandinvolvedlongholidaysgoingonholidayin
groupswasalsonormal.Morepeoplewereabletomoveoutofcommunalflatswherethey
hadjustoneroomoftheirownintotheirownflats.Intermsofgettingholdofthings-the
systemworkedlikeablackmarket-adeficitmarket-peoplelearnthowtousethesystem.
ProsperityseemedtobegentlyincreasingevenasBrezhnevslept.

ButBrezhnevdiedin1982bywhichtimetheeconomicproblemsoftheSovietsystemwere
becomingalltooobvious,atleasttothoseinpower.HewasfollowedbyAndropovwhodied
in1984andChernenkowhodiedin1985,leavingthewayclearforMikhailGorbachevto
becomeGeneralSecretaryandhenceleaderoftheSovietUnion.Russians-andtheother
Sovietpeoples-wereabouttoenteryearsandyearsofchaosafterdecadesofstabilityand
stagnation.

Gorbachevhadtodealwiththeconsequencesofeconomicstagnationandthecollapsing
priceofoil.Therewerenoresourcesleft.Hetriedtoliberalisemarkets-andpolitics.
Politicalliberalisationwasmoreexciting,especiallyforeducatedpeople,andwentfar
fartherthananyonehadenvisaged,veryquickly.That'swhatmostWesternersremember.

Buthowdoesanyoneturnablackmarketintoacapitalmarket?Ifwhatyoucanbuyis
regulatedbyalackofgoodsratherthanalackofmoney,howdoyoufreeupanddoubleor
trebleyourdomesticproduction-andkeepsomekindofcontrolofmoneysothatpeople
learnwhatyoucanspendandwhatyouhavetosave.How,infact,tochangetotallythe
relationshipbetweenwork,productivityandmoney,ifthepeoplegoverningthecountryand
tryingtodothishavehadnoexperienceofourkindofeconomyandsocialstructures?

Andjustasimportant-howdoyouteachpeopleaboutmoneywhohavelivedalltheirlives
withrationing?Rationingisfair-andalsoget-roundable.Gettingrounditdependsonwhat
youcanbarter.Moneyisnotsosignificant.

TheSovietperestroikareformsmeantthatpeoplestartedlosingtheirjobs.Peoplewere
paidless.Inflationtookhold.Butatthesametimetherewasnothingintheshops,because
ifyouwerecontrollingsuppliesanditseemedlikelythattheypricewouldgoup,youheld
backthegoodsinthewarehouses.Peoplewereworriedabouttheincreasinglackofcontrol
andresponsibilityasotherpeoplestartedshowinginitiative.
ForatleasttwoyearsbeforetheSovietUnionwasbrokenup-deliberatelybySoviet
leaders-inDecember1991-peopleweregettingmoreandmoreconfusedbydifferent
economicandvaluesystemsthatwereco-existing,thoughtheymadenosenseoperating
together.

On2ndJanuary1992,Yeltsin,nowPresidentoftheRussianFederation,divorcednowfrom
allthoseothercountrieswhichhadmadeuptheSovietUnion,declaredthatpriceswere
liberalised.Sellerscouldchargewhattheywanted.Withafewexceptionspriceswouldnot
becontrolledbythestate.(Rathertoolate,herealisedthatinfactstateassetstechnically
belongedtothepeople.)Bythetimehisadvisershaddevisedvouchersforthepopulation
sothattheycouldrealisesomeoftheirassets,thevastwealthofthecountrywasinthe
handsofreallycleverruthlessentrepreneurs-thepeoplewhomwecall'oligarchs'andtheir
slightlylesserranksoftheveryrich,called'NewRussians'.Naturallythesepeoplewere
helpedbytheadviserswhofloodedinfromWesterncountriesandwhowereeagertoturn
Russiaintoa'Western-style'countrywhichwouldbehelped/controlledbyexperienced
'democracies'.(LotsofmoneywasputintoRussiatohelpwithdevelopingcivilsociety,but
itwasatinyfractionofthemoneyputintoRussiainordertoexploitaneconomicsituation
whichwasdevastatingthepopulation.)AndsobeganwhattheRussianrefertoas'the
nineties'.

Thecountrysufferedhyperinflationandthereforethepeoplelostalltheirsavingstheylost
theirjobsindustrycollapsedasdidtheagriculturalfarms.Onedisasterfuelledanother:for
exampletheSovietwelfaresystemvanishedsinceitmadenosenseinanew
entrepreneurialworld.Thecreakybutuniversalnationalhealthservicewas-Russianswere
told-notthewaytosolvehealthproblems.EveryoneexcepttheBritishexplainedyou
shouldprivatisethehealthsystem-whichmeantthatmostpeoplecouldnotafforddoctors
exceptthosebravedoctorswhowentonworkingwithoutpay.Nobodycouldpaytheschool
teacherseither,butteacherswereoldladieswhowentonworkinganyway,andwhowere
officiallydespisedforit.

Mostofthepopulationlivedonorganicvegetablesgrownontheirowndachaplots.Butthey
couldbuyMarsbarsandSnickersbarsandincreasinglycheapcomputerswhichthe
childrendemanded.Meanwhiletheshopsbegantofillwithposhforeigngoodsboughtwith
dollarsbythose(mostlyinMoscow)whohadmanagedtolandjobswithforeignfirms.So
thissocietywhichhadinSoviettimesbeenbasedonprettyequaldistributionofwealth
becamethemostunequalofsocieties-thefabulouslyrichtheveryrich,andthevast
majorityofthestrugglingpoorwhowonderedeverymonthwhethertheywouldgetpaid.And
thenthehomeless.

Thedeathrateshotup-themajorityofmenweredyingbeforetheyreached60-ofillness,
alcohol,joblessness,andessentiallyofbrokenhearts.Thebirthratewentrightdown:why
havebabiesinthischaos?Andtherewasnocheerfulideologytokeeppeopletogether.In
facttherewasnocoherentsystemofvaluesatallwhich,evenwhenmostpeopleare
essentiallydecent,isdeeplytraumatising.

By1997,withYeltsin,analcoholicinthralltothesquabblingcourtiersaroundhim,the
economylookedbrieflyasifitwasslowlynormalising.Inflationhadcomedownto,say,25%
-andpeoplewerefindingwaystowork.Butthentherewereworldeconomicconvulsions,
andRussia(bynowhugelyindebttothemoneyinstitutionsoftheworld)defaultedonits
debtsin1998.Onceagaintherewasseriousinflationandthistime-becauseforeign
investorswereaffected-theworldtooknotice.ButtheRussianpopulationmostlylaughed.
Theyhadlostalltheirsavings,theirassets,theirrighttopublicassetsandtheirsecuritysix
yearsearlier.Theyhadlittleornothinglefttolose.AndsoRussiastaggeredinto1999,with
thepeople,onthewhole,disillusioned,confused,ashamedandexhausted.Attheveryend
of1999,Yeltsinannouncedthathewasresigning,andthat,untilproperelectionsshould
takeplace,hewasappointingsomeoneelsetotakeover-someonevirtuallyunknownto
thepeople-VladimirPutin.

PutinhasbeeninpowerasPresidentfor11years,andintandemwithPresidentMedvedev
for4yearsfrom2008-2012.FromtheWesternpointofview-forreasonswhichare,Ithink,
deepinUSgeopolitics,Putinwasratherquicklydemonised.

FromthepointofviewofordinaryRussianshebroughtstability,coherentpoliciesanda
doubling,trebling,oftheirpersonalincomesandthewealthofRussia.Hemadethe
oligarchspaytaxes,hebrokeupsomeoftheillegalempiresofenergywealthand
nationalisedthem,HedealtwithlocalwarlordsindistantpartsoftheRussianfederationand
insistedthatgovernorsshouldbeappointedfromMoscow,sothathecouldkeepaneyeon
them.Withtheoilmoneyhisgovernmentbuiltupahugeemergencyreservesothatit
wouldneveragainbethebasket-caseofworldeconomies,andheandhisministers
devisedandlargelycarriedoutfederal-wideimprovementprojectsinEducation,Health,
AgricultureandInfrastructure.Peoplearehugelybetteroffthantheywere,andalthoughof
coursethereareplentyofpoorpeople,theytooarebetteroffthantheywere.(The
homelesshavegonefromthestreetsofPerm,where-aswitheverywhereelseinRussia)
theywereobviousandpitifulandshamefultotheirfellow-citizensinthe1990s.)Notallof
thisisattributabletothepoliciesoftheGovernment,stilllesstoPresidentPutin-oilprices
areimportant-butfromtheordinaryRussian'spointofview,theyhavemuchtobethankful
forunderPutin.

ThereismorecensorshipthantherewasinYeltsin'syearswhentherewasnocensorship
atall-aboutanything.Thereareoppositionwebsitesandsomenewspapersbutother
oppositionnewspapershavetheireditorsreplacedbytheauthorities.Therearestate
televisionchannelswhichfollowthegovernmentlinewithdailyfocusonthePresidentand
thekindof'analysis'bywhichthedecisionsofthegovernmentarealwaysshowntobe
correctontheotherhand,thesenewsprogrammesshow-onthewhole-moreofwhatis
goingonintheworldthanournationalBBCprogrammes,forexample.

[Asforotherdomesticproblems:IhaveyettohearateacherinhighereducationinRussia
whodoesnotcomplainabouttheMinisterofHigherEducation,theloweringofstandards,
thelackofattentiontothehumanities,thechasingaftermoneyratherthanscholarship,etc
etc.(WhenItelltheseindignantpeoplethatyoucanhearexactlythesamecomplaintsin
Britain,theyareastounded.SurelyBritainisacivilisedcountry?!.)

Corruptionisalsoacomplaint:whyhaven'tPutinandMedvedevdonemoretocombatit?In
facttheyaredoingsomething.Russiaisslowly-buttooslowly-climbingupthelistwhere
theleastcorruptnationsareatthetop.136outof175countries.Butthereareinteresting
observationsbyordinaryRussiansaboutthiscorruption.]

Sowherearewenow:orratherwherewereweinlateFebruary2014whenthecrisisin
Ukraineerupted.?

WhatcanIsayaboutthiswhichwon'tbeshouteddownbyonesideortheother?

Ukraineisanunhappycountry,puttogetheroutofseverallargeareaswithdifferent
histories,cultures,faithsandloyalties.In23yearsitsleaders,mostlyquarrellingoligarchs
fromallsides,havefailedtothinkaboutUkraineasapluralistcountrythatcandevelopits
ownpluralistsenseofpride.Theeconomyhasdroppedmorethanthatofanyotherpost-
Sovietcountryandmanypeopleliveinrealdesperatepoverty.

UkraineisrelatedtoRussia.Ifyouaskhow-myanalogyistosay:takeWales,Scotland,
NorthernIrelandandtheRepublicofIreland,rollthemintooneandsaythisisanationwhich
hasalong,longrelationshipwithEngland.Imaginewhatyouwouldsayaboutthat.Itwould
notbeeasy.Ukraine'srelationshipwithRussiaisintimate,historical,fullofloveand
solidarity,butdamagedbybitternessandasenseofoppression.Lotsandlotsoffamilyand
friendsonbothsides.AndthreemillionUkrainiansworkinginRussia.

NowforthequestionswhichIhaveaskedRussians-hundredsofRussiansfromtheArctic
totheCaucasus,fromSmolenskacrossEuropeanRussia,acrosstheUrals,toSiberiaand
ontothefareast,toVladivostok.IhavebeentoalltheseplacesandIhavetalked.Ihave
extensivenotes.ButIknowthatIcanbebiasedasweallcan,inwhatIwanttohear.SoI
circulatedabout300universityteachersofEnglishwith8questions,andaskedthem-
entirelyoptionally-fortheiranswersandthoseoftheirfriendsandrelations.LaterIturned
thequestionsintoRussianandaskedespeciallyfortheopinionsofmen.AsaresultIhave
about70detailedanswersfromteachers,lawyers,engineers,ITspecialists,business
people,journalists,students,pensioners.Educatedpeople-sonotsociologicallyaccurate
BUTtypical,itseemstome,intherangeofanswersandthekindofanswersthattheygive.

Somepeoplewouldsaythatintheiranswers,theseordinarythoughtfulRussianswere
undulyinfluencedbymass-mediapropaganda.TothatIwouldsaytwothings:astartlingly
highproportionofRussiansusetheinternetandwatchforeignTVchannels.Theyhave
accesstomanysourcesofinformationandmisinformation-morethantheirBritish
equivalents.Andevenmoreimportant,millionsandmillionsofRussiansincludingprobably
morethan50%ofthissamplehavefriendsandrelationsinUkrainewhomtheyphoneor
writetoorskypewith,oftendaily.Theyarelivinginacomplicatedconnectedworld.Of
coursetheirviewsarenotjustparroted.

(1)AreyoumoreorlesssatisfiedwiththeannexationofCrimea?Thevastmajority,about9
outof10approvedofCrimeasecedingfromUkraine.Theyobjectedtomyword,
'annexation'.TheCrimeausedtobelongtoRussia,itsinhabitantshadlongwantedtoreturn
toRussia,theyheldareferendumandtheyvotedtoleaveUkraineandthen-toaskRussia
toaccepttheautonomousrepublicaspartoftheRussianFederation.

AlthoughRussianspecialforcespoppedupallovertheplace,noviolencetookplaceand
no-onewaskilled.(Iwassurprisedthatmyrespondentsdidnotmakemuchmoreofthe
peacefulchangeofpower)

TheRussianssaid'Itwasrighttoletthemdecide:theyhavedecided.'

Anumbercomplainedthattheirownhard-earnedsalarieswerebeingtaxedtopayfor
economicaidtoCrimea.ThiswasnotidealforRussiaandsomeofmyrespondentsshould
beputdownas'againsttheinclusionofCrimea'.Buttheydidnotdoubtthatitwasavery
goodmoveforthepeopleofCrimea.

OneortwopointedoutthatprobablythemainaimoftheRussiangovernmentwhichwas
certainlyactiveintheprocess,wastoensuretheintegrityofSevatopol.

Asforthesmallminorityofthosewhodisapproved,theydidnotexplainWhy-exceptone
whosaidthatitwasagainstinternationallaw.Perhapstheothersfeltthesameobjection,
buttheyansweredwithavigorous'No',andleftcommentsandexplanationstothosewho
supportedwhathappened.

IspokeatlengthtoathoughtfullysardonicCrimeanteacherwhosaid'Mostofusvotedto
leaveUkraineandthentojoinRussiabecausewewereterrifiedofbecomingvictimsof
violencelikethewretchedeasternUkrainians.Eveninthoseearlydayswecouldseewhat
washappeningastheKievgovernmentturnedagainstthepeopleinDonbass.Andwesaid,
Noway!Wemustescapethat.SothankyouEastUkrainiansforshowinguswhatwould
havebeenourfate!

ShesaidtheCrimeanTartarswereworriedatfirst,butafterayearmostofthemhave
stoppedbeingworried.

(2)WouldtheAnnexationofeasternUkrainebeagoodidea.Alargemajoritysaid,'Certainly
not!Whatfor?RussiahasneversoughttograbeasternUkrainewhichbelongstoanother
country-utterlyunlikeCrimea.'Thisbigmajorityinsistedthatthiswasaninternalproblem
whichUkrainemustsortoutforitself.Butofcoursethisopinion,pureasitmightbeis
difficult-remembermyanalogywithScotland/Wales/NorthernIreland/Ireland.Many
Russiansfrequentlyexpressedpityforthevictims.Andmanyknewrelationsandfriendsin
theDonetskandLuganskseparatistregionswhowerehopingforsomekindofsupport.

Ayearago,answerssuchas'Itisnothingtodowithus.''Itisunimaginablethatwewould
invadeUkraine'wereevenmorecommon.InAprillastyear(2014)Imetno-onewho
thoughtthatRussiawouldorshouldinvadeeasternUkraine.Butmymostrecent
responseshaveincludedsomelongandthoughtfulruminationsontheproblem.Onlyone
saidfirmly,'InvadeUkraineandbringthecivilwartheretoaquickhalt!'andonesaid'so
manypeoplearesuffering,somanycivilians.Perhapsweoughttodosomethingtoavoid
genocide.'Buttherewasmoreof'Iftheseparatiststhinktheycannolongerlivewithin
Ukraine,afterayearoffighting,whatshouldRussiadothen?Ifthereisnohopeforpeace?'

Hereisonesuchresponse.

'Ihonestlydonotknow.TheUkrainiangovernmentissetonnotgrantinganydegreeof
autonomytotheregion,andtheRussianlanguagehasbeendeniedthestatusofthe
secondofficiallanguageconsistently,despitethefactthatalargeproportion(morethanhalf
accordingtosomesources,bothRussianandforeign)ofthepopulationtherespeaks
Russianastheirfirstlanguage.However,tomethatdoesnotmeanthatRussiashouldtake
overbymilitaryforce,asthiswouldbeaninvasionofanothercountry'sterritory,whichis
completelyinacceptable.Atthesametime,Iamappalledatthedouble-standardtheEU
hasshowninthismatter:whileupholdingtherightsofethnicminoritiesinEuropean
countries,theEUopenlysupportsagovernmentthatdiscriminatesagainsttheirown
people.IbelievethattheRussiangovernmentisrighttoapplypoliticalandeconomic
leverageinordertosupportthelargeRussiancommunityinEasternUkraine.'

TwopeopletookwhatIwouldcallaUkrainianline.TheyexplainedthattheeastUkrainian
separatistsare'terrorists'.

AndvariouspeopleinRostovwhoaregoingbackwardsandforwardsacrossthefrontier
pointedoutthatafterayearoffighting,themilitiasfightingforDonetskandtheseparatists
werealmostasbadastheUkrainianNazimilitias.

SeveralrespondentshadexperienceoftherefugeeswhocametoRussia.Onesaidthat19
membersofherhusbandsfamilyhadnowmovedacrossthebordertoRussiawherethey
hadrelatives.Maybetheywerenotexactlyrefugees-buttheyhadlefttheirhomesandjobs
andordinarylifetoescapetoRussia.[Ihavepersonallyinterviewedatlengthashy20-year-
oldrefugeefromUkraine,livingnowinPerm.Hisownstoryshowedthatmilitias(probably
onbothsides)loseallsenseafteratime.]

(3)DoyoubelieveyourgovernmentwhenitsaystheRussianarmyisnotfightingin
Ukraine?

Thiswasatrickyquestion.Fewpeoplesimplysaid,'Ibelievethem'or'theyareliars'.They
allknowthat'theWest'accusesRussiaofusingitsmilitarytodestabiliseUkraine.Theyall
knowthatPutinandhisministerssaythisisnottrue.Sowhoisright?
Somepeoplesaid'Iknowlotsofpeopleinthearmyandtheydonotknowanyonewhois
fightinginUkraine.Rumoursareboundtobeflyingabout,soiftheysaytheyknownothing,
thentherearen'tanysoldiersthere.'

Anotherargumentwasasfollows:

'Theclaimistrue.I'mnotapersontotakeontrustwhatevertheauthoritiesandmass
mediasay.I'vewitnessedbittermomentsofblindingmynation(Afghanistan,Chechnya),
butthoselieswereevident:mothersburiedtheirsonsinSiberia,NizhnyNovgorod,
Volgograd,Rostov,Ekaterinburg...andwiththat,youunderstand,thearmypresenceinan
ariawasimpossibletoconceal.I'm45nowandbelongtothegenerationofmotherswhose
sonsaredraftage.Since2014I'veheardofnotasinglecaseofamotherlosinghersonin
militaryoperationsinDonbass.'
[Infactmothershaveprotested,buttherehavebeensmallnumbers,andgovernment
effortstosuppresscomment.Sothatisn'tquitetrue.]

Otherssaid,'OfcoursetheRussianarmyisn'tthere.IftheyweretheycoulddefeatUkraine
inaweek.ORWhydoesn'ttheKievgovernmentpresentproof-photos,satelliteevidence,
capturedprisoners.Notjusttwoprisonersandfivepassports,-asifsoldierswouldhave
theirpassportsanyway.TheAmericanskeeptalkingaboutthishugeRussianarmy,butthey
havenotseenit,andtheycannotidentifyit.

Alotofpeoplesaid,'Idon'tknow'.

Manysaid-'weknowthatthereareRussianvolunteers.Iknowofpeoplewhohave
volunteeredtohelptheeastUkrainians.'

Andwhoarethesevolunteers?Welltheymaybeenthusiasticidealisticstudentsfriends
havetalkedtomeofseveralsuchstudentsandhavedescribedtheiraccounts.Other
comments:Iftherearerealarmypeoplethere,Ibettheyhavebeensentbyexasperated
officerswhowantustoDOsomething.Notchiefcommand,butlowerdownwheretheyfeel
Russiaisnotrespondingtoadisasterasitshoulddo.

Someonesaid:IknowthoseboyswhodrivethelorriesfullofhumanitarianaidtoDonetsk.
Theyarenotagainsttheaidbuttheyaresofrustrated.'WhylettheUkrainianmilitias
destroyallthesecivilianswithoutresponding.'Andsomebodyelsesaid'Veteranscan'tlive
withoutwar.IftheywereprofessionalsoldiersoncetheywillgettoUkrainesomehow.'

ButistheRussiangovernmentlying?

Oneinspiredpersonsaid-'Ithinkwhattheysayis80%true.
Andhereisaprovincialjournalistwhoseemstoknowwhatheistalkingabout:

'ItwasahabitintheUSSRtoconcealthepresenceofitsmilitaryinwarzones.[Hegives
examples]PeoplelivinginRussiawellunderstandtheirrecenthistory.Theyknowthatifour
weaponsarefiredinUkraine,thereareRussiansoldiersfiringthem.Notthearmy,not
thousandsofcompanies,notwholedivisions.Nottheairforce,notballisticmissiles.But
specialforces,signallers,reconnaissancetroops,tankdrivers.Theyarethere.Notinthe
statistics.ButthecoffinsarrivebackinRussia.

Isuspectthatrespondentsaying'it's80%true'wouldagreewithhim.Smallnumbersof
specialforces.TheRussiangovernmentis20%lying.Others,intheiranswerssuggest
somethingsimilar.

'Ithinkit'snotcompletelytrue.Itwouldbealietosay,thattherearelargegroupsofRussian
soldiersfightingforDonbass,butitwouldalsobealietodenyRussianarmy'sparticipation.
Idonotknowtowhichextendourarmyisinvolvedandit'shardtofindoutamongstallthis
propagandafrombothsides.ButstillIbelieve,thatmostofrebelsfightingforDonbassare
Donbasspeople.'

Andthencomesthetroubledjustification.

'Itishardformetojudgeas,obviously,wearebrainwashed(aswellasalltheothers).I
thinktheremightbesomeonefromRussiafightinginDonbassbutIalsothinkpeoplefrom
Donbassneedsomeonetohelpthem.WhatweseeistheUkrainiangovernment
oppressingtheRussianpopulationintheirhistoricallymulticulturalcountry.Formeit'slike
oppressingpeoplewhospeakFrenchinCanada.EuropeisnotwillingtohelpDonbassand
whenIsee(onTV)thecivilianpopulationofDonbass(theold,womenandchildren)being
killedbytheUkrainiangovernmentIcan'tbutjustifythepresenceofRussiansinDonbass
helpingtheir"brothers".'

(4)WhatmoreofpracticalactioncanRussiataketohelpsolvethecrisisinUkraine?

Tothisquestiontherewaswidespreadgloom-'Thereisnothingmorethatwecando.''This
isaquestionsfortheUkrainians,itisnothingtodowithusandtheydonotwanttosolveit.'

TheminoritywhothoughtthatRussiawasactivelymeddlinginDonbasssaid'Withdrawall
ourmilitary,andtheUkrainianswilldefeattheseparatists,sothewarwillstop.'Or'Russia
wantsadestablisedUkraineunderitscontrol.Soitdoesnotwantthewartostop.'Ihad
perhaps3answerslikethat.Iwrotetooneoftherespondentsaskingifhecouldexplain
howadestablisedUkrainecouldbeintheinterestsofRussia:expensive,messy,very
unpopularwiththemajorityofRussians,invitingthewrathofwesterncountries,andruining
evenfurthertheUkrainianeconomysothatitcannotpayitdebtstoRussia.Myrespondent
repliedthattherewereseveraltheories-helisted7-allofthemingenious,far-fetched,and
milesfromreal-politikwhichiswhatPutinisusuallyaccusedof.

Manypeoplementionedcontinuinghumanitarianaid-whichisgettingmoreurgent,not
lessdecenttreatmentofrefugees,long-termvisitorsandimmigrantsfromUkraine.

ThegloomincludedassumptionsaboutAmericanintentions.'Thewarwillnotstopbecause
theUSdoesnotwantittostop.ProbablytheEUwouldlikeittostop,buttheEUis-and
hasbeenforalongtime-America'spoodle."

Thisthoughtfulanswer-fromanothersceptic-sumsupmanyresponses:

'IthinkthatRussiahasdonemorethanenough.In1995Russiamanagednottofullystop,
butatleastkickstartthepeaceprocessinChechnyaattheverybrinkofobviousmilitary
victoryovertheIslamists.Stillourgovernmentwaswiseenoughtoseefurtherthan
immediatepoliticalgain.SoPoroshenko'steamaswellasothernegotiatorshavealotto
learnfromRussiawho,unlikemanycountriesinEuropeknowshowtodealwithsuch
problems.IthinkthatPoroshenkohadbetterchancesinthebeginningwhenDonbass
claimedmoreautonomyforlocalauthoritiesandespeciallytaxfreedoms.Thesituationis
worsenow.Itwouldbebestforbothpartiestostopfightingandstartnegotiating.Jaw-jawis
alwaysbetterthanwar-war.Butnobodycares.'

Onepersonwasblunt:'Idon'tknowwhatRussiacando.ButI'msurethattostopartillery
firingintheeastUkrainetherewillbeenoughonetelephonecalltoUkrainefromtheUS.'
(5)Whataboutthesanctions.Shouldtheybelifted?

ThreemonthsagoIwasinacarwithalawyeragedabout60.Theconversationhadturned
tosanctions.Thelawyerwasrapidlybecomingapoplectic,notsomuchwithrageaswith
theextremefrustrationoftheintelligenthavingtodealwiththestupid.Hekepttakinghis
handsoffthewheel,andIfearedthatwemightbeseriousvictimsofthisinternational
devicetomakeRussia'behave'.

'Sanctions!'saidmyfriend.'Whatonearthhavesanctionstodowithus!Wedidn'tstartthe
war!Wearenotprosecutingthewar!ThewarisbeingfoughtonUkrainianterritoryby
UkrainiansagainstotherUkrainians.BywhatlogicshouldtheUSimposesanctionson
RussiawhichhasnothingtodowiththetroublethatAmericaitselfstirredup.Howareweto
blame?'

Ifinlessvigorousterms,thatviewisalmostuniversal.Eventhestronganti-Russian-
Governmentrespondentsthinkthatthesanctionsareillogical,ineffective,andcausing
unnecessarytroubletobusinesstryingtodevelopinternationally.Thepaintoordinary
peoplehasbeentheRussiangovernment'sreversesanctionsinwhichfoodfromtheEUis
barredfromenteringRussia.Interestinglyno-oneobjectedtothisinthesenseofsayingthat
theRussianresponseshouldbeabolished.Sanctionsandcounter-sanctionswerepartof
thepackage.

AlmostnobodyexpectedthemtobeliftedpeopleregularlypointedoutthattheUSisnot
hurtbythem,andwishestogoonhurtingRussia,whiletheEUishurtbythem,andmany
Europeancountries,letalonetheirbusinessesandproducerswouldliketoseethemlifted,
buttheEUisAmerica'spoodle.(ThisviewiscertainlydrawnlargelyfromRussianmedia
andpropaganda.Italsohappenstobetrue.)

Giventhattheyareheretostay,howhavesanctionsaffectedordinaryRussians.Therewas
adistinctdividebetweentheresponsesofpeoplefromMoscowandStPetersburgand
thoseoftherestofthecountry.Thepeopleinthecapitalsmisstheforeigncheeses,and
chocolateandthedoublingofthecostofforeigntravel.Mostoftherestofthecountryis
lesstroubled:Icouldn'taffordthoseforeigngoodsanyway.IalwaysbuyRussianfoodand
thereisplentyofitanditisgood.

Also,manypeoplearguedthatthesanctionshavethrowntheRussianeconomybackonits
ownresourcesandproductions.Sotherearemorelocalbusinesses,moreinitiative,less
dependenceonimportsgenerally.Sothesanctionsareactuallyimprovingtheeconomy.

Nowthatlastpointiscertainlypartofwhatthegovernmenttellsthepeople.Idon'tknow
howfaritistrue.Probablythegovernmentdoesn'tknoweither,becauseRussiaisahuge
country.Butoneortwopeoplementionedspecificnewactivitiesintheirareas.

Everyonesaidthatpriceshadgoneup-partlybecauseofsanctions,partlybecauseoflow
oilprices.Butthiswaspartoflife.Nofinancialdifficultieswerelikethedisastersof15years
ago.Anuisance,atighteningofbelts,apulling-together.

It'sstrangebutthefactisthatsanctionsimposedonRussiahaveunitedourcountry.

Orfromsomeonemoresceptical,andinotheranswerscriticalofthegovernment:

'IfyouhatePutin,punishhim,butifyouhatealltheRussians,wewillalsohateyou.The
mostseveresanctionswereimposedaftertheMH-17tragedy.[TheMalaysianairliner
crash]TheWestwasnotright.Wedon'tknowwhowasreallytoblame!Theother
sanctionshavenotmuchangeredmeandmyfriends.Ihopethesanctionswillbelifted.'

NOWFORFOURMOREGENERALQUESTIONS.

Question6.IsadrawingtogetheroftheRussianOrthodoxChurchandStateagoodidea?

Igotawiderangeofanswerstothis,butratherlittleanalysis.IfIdividethemintothree,the
smallestgroup-butstillareasonablenumber-said'Surelythisisagoodthing'.'Whatis
theproblem?"'Russianshavealwaysbeenspiritual'.

Thenextgroup-athird,say-saidthattheydidnotunderstandmyquestionbecausethey
didnotrecognizethesituation.TheRussianConstitutioninsistsonaseparationofChurch
andStatedifferentreligionsarerecognizedwithintheconstitutionthepoliticalelite
sometimesmakeofficialvisitstoMosquesandBuddhisttemplesandSynagoguesaswell
astheOrthodoxChurchwithwhichabigmajorityoftheethnicRussianpopulationidentify.
Thepaperspublishphotosofpoliticalleaderswithlotsofleadersofdifferentfaiths:thatis
partofacknowledgingthevariedculturesthatmakeuptheRussianFederation.Russiais-
andisrecognized-asamulti-faithandno-faithculture.

ManypointedoutthattheythoughtofthemselvesasRussianOrthodox,butthiswasfor
themaculturalidentificationratherthanaspiritualone.Theydidn'texpecttogotoChurch,
butitwasusefulforthesoultotakethefastseriously.[FastinginLenthasrecentlybecome
almostanobsessionIaminRussiaduringAprileachyear,andsoIarriveattheheightof
theFastingSeason.Fastingmeanscuttingoutmeat,butteranddairyproduce,sometimes
fishbutrarelyalcohol.Sointhebakerytheywillwarnyouthatsuchandsuchaloafisnot
goodforLentFastingbecauseitcontainsmilkinrestaurantsandincanteensthereare
specialLentmenus.Withamixtureofmoaningandenthusiasmmuchofthepopulation
joinsin,atleastduringtheweekbeforeOrthodoxEaster.Thentheyhavehugefeastswith
eggsandspecialdecoratedcakesandagloriouscreamcheesedishflavouredwithmany
goodthings.AtsuchmomentsmanyRussianswilllookatyousolemnlyandsaytheyare
Orthodoxatheart-butinthenextbreaththeycanbegintomockfatcorruptpriests.]

Anyway,thisgroupcan'tunderstandmyquestionbecausetheydon'treallythinkitis
happening.

Andthenaslightlylargergroupadmitthattheyareworried.Mostofthemarenotworried
verymuch.WhenIhaveaskedfriendswhoarereligiousthemselves,theyhaveshaken
theirheadsslowlyandsaid,'Idon'tlikeit.Ithinkreligionisaprivatethinganditisnopartof
myreligiontobereflectedinwhatourgovernmentdoes.'

Others-non-believers-weremorescathing.TheOrthodoxChurchisaninstitutionwhich
isalwaystryingtogetmorepower.That'satendencyinallcountriesbutitshouldbe
resisted.

SeveralsaidthattheOrthodoxChurchisnowdefactoanarmofgovernment-'AndwhatI
hatemostaboutitisthattheseelitesusedtobeatheistsandnowtheyadorethechurch.'
and
'It'saveryworryinginfluence,mostlyduetotheRussianOrthodoxChurch'slong
connectionstotheFSB(formerKGB).'

TheactualviewsthattheChurchseekstoimposeonthepeople-oratleastitdeclaresits
positionwithseemingKremlincomplicity-includestrongdisapprovalofgaypeople,strong
disapprovalof'westernmoralstandards',andabeliefthatRussiamusttakeitsown
spiritualpath.Whichtendstoproudisolationism.

Sosomeoftheobjectionsbythisgroupareto'Mediaevalopinions-butwhatcanyou
expectoftheChurch?'resentmentthatanyinstitutionistellingyouwhattodowiththatkind
ofauthorityattacksontheassumptionthatthereisaconnectionbetweentheChurchand
the144millionRussians-whoarediversewithdiverseopinions.Still,thismoderate
answerwasmosttypical.

'Idon'tthinkit'sagoodidea.Butrightnow(asIseeit)Russianpeopledonotseeanythreat
inthat.AlotofpeoplefromRussiadonotbelieveinsaintlinessofclergy.Wehaveseena
lotofphotographsinourpressandblogosphereshowingpriestsinluxuriouscarsand
wearinghugelyexpensivecloaks.Wemaygotochurch,wemayskipchurch.It'snotabig
deal.That'swhymostofusdonotcareabouttheproblem.'

ThatwascertainlytheviewofstudentsinclasseswhereIaskedthequestion.'Nobigdeal.'

FinallyIhadseveralrespondentswhoretorted,reasonablyenough-Whataboutyour
QueeninWestminsterAbbey?WhataboutyourArchbishopinCanterbury?Our
constitutionissecularyoursisnot.

Questions7and8OnActivestudentsandontheImmortalLegion.

ThesewerealternativeQuestionsIwaswantingtofindoutiftherewasanincreaseofcivic
activityinRussiarecently,and3peoplefrom3differentcitiesspontaneouslymentionedthe
increasedenthusiasmoftheirstudents.Butthequestionwasobviouslyirrelevantfornon-
universityrespondentssoIreplaceditbyoneabouttheImmortalLegionwalksonVictory
Day.Neitherturnedouttobeanidealquestionbuttheyraisedsomeinterestingpoints.

Plentyofuniversityteacherssaidthatstudentsarestudents,theyvary,someyearsare
moreactivethanotherstheyareignorantandimmatureexceptforafew....'Averydulllot
thisyear...'Etc.

Butasignificantnumbersaidthatmoreandmoreoftheirstudents(atleastinthe
humanities)weretakingupvoluntaryworksuchashelpinginorphanages,visitingelderly
people,donatingblood.Thestudentsorganizesuchactivitiesthemselves,butclearlythere
isanationalmoodgoingroundthecountry.Itiscertainlyhelpedbygovernment-approved
media.Butthatdoesn'tmeanthatitislessreal.Twoyearsagotherewerereally
devastatingfloodsintheRussianFarEastThousandsofhomesdestroyed,tensof
thousandshomeless.ThroughTVchannelstherewereappealsformoneyandhelp,and
thousandsofstudentsvolunteered.Normaldecentresponses.Butmanyteachersthought
thattheresponsewasmorevigorousthanitwouldhavebeeninearlieryears.Also,
followingtheexampleofBritain,muchwasmadeofstudentvolunteersattheSochi
OlympicGames.Ispoketolotsofstudentswhowentthereasvolunteersandtheywereas
excitedastheirBritishcounterparts.Asaresultithasbecomefashionabletobehelpfuland
tovolunteerforRussianactivities.(AndIdonotuse'fashionable'cynicallybutasawayof
tracingatrend.)

Moreoverseveralrespondentsnotedthatstudentsaremorepoliticallyactive.Ofcourse
theyareasmallminority,butbiggerandnoisierthantheywere.Hereisanenthusiastic
commentfromoneteacherinherthirties.

'Mystudentsareveryinquiring,I'vebeenteachingfor11yearsalreadyanddothinkthatthe
youngpeoplearemoreopen,sensitiveandwhatisreallyamazing-patriotic!About10
yearsago90%ofstudentsofForeignLanguagesDepartmentwantedtoleavethecountry
andnowtheyallwanttostay,theybroadentheirhorizon,getinvolvedintomanyvoluntary
projects,theyhelpsomanypeople!'

NowIwanttolookattheotherquestion.WhatdoyouthinkoftheImmortalLegion.InSoviet
timesthereweretwoimportantnationalholidays-1stMayand9thMay.1stMay-workers'
day-wassolinkedwiththeSovietUnionthatitcouldnotbecelebratedexceptasa
communistfestival.Soitisstillapublicholiday,butmostofthepopulationwhocandoso
rushofftotheirdachastobeginplantingforthesummerseason.It'saspringbreakof
severaldays.

9thMaywascelebratedinSoviettimesasthegreatVictoryOverFascismDay.Military
hardwarewasbroughtoutontoRedSquare,andincitiesandtownsupanddownthe
countrythearmyparadedandpeoplebothrejoicedintherepellingofinvadersfromtheir
homelandandmournedthemillionswhohaddied.Ithasalwaysbeenapublicholidaybutin
the1990snotsomuchwasmadeofthedisplay.TheRussianFederationwasnotatwar,
theGreatPatrioticWaroftheSovietUnionwasaboutadifferentworldinadifferentcountry,
andRussianshadotherthingstoworryabout.

InPutin'stime,notimmediatelybutslowly,VictoryDayhasbeenbroughtbackasapatriotic
holiday,withtheideaofunitingallthepeople.With27milliondead,everySovietfamily
suffereddeaths,letalonethewoundedandtraumatizedwhodidreturn.And'Sovietpeople'
includedofcoursethepeopleslivinginwhatisnowtheRussianFederation.Sothis
seemedtobeadaytobringthemalltogether.

Isitadayforshowingoffthemilitary?Notnearlysomuchasitusedtobe-untilthisyear
whenPutinmadeitclearthatthedisplayofmilitaryequipmentdidhaveapoliticalagenda.

Thisyeartherewasahugeofficialbuild-uptothe70thAnniversary.Everywherewere
posters,declamations,exhibitions,people-participationineventsbeforethegreatday.But
alsoinresponsetoaggressiveandhostileactionsbythewest,therewasalsoalotof
militarystuffondisplay.

Severaltimes,ascarefullyasIcould,Iraisedthequestionofwhetherthiswasan
appropriatepublicholiday70yearsaftertheevent.'Younolongercelebratethrowing
NapoleonoutofRussia.WhenareyougoingtostopcelebratingthrowingtheNazisoutof
Russia?'
AndalmostalwaystheanswerwasasifIhadseriouslyhurtthepersonIasked.

'Karen,surelyyouunderstand-somanypeopledied.Andtheydiedforus,andwemustnot
forgetthat.Childrenforgetsomuchthesedayssoitisveryimportanttotellthemabout
theirgreat-grandfathers.'

'ButwhyVictory?Isn'tthisabittoolateforCelebratingVictory?'

'Itdoesn'tmeanthatwearethinkingofotherpeoplesasenemies.Itmeansthatweare
proudofourselves.'

NowtotheImmortalLegionortheImmortalRegiment.Aboutfouryearsagoinsome
Siberiancity,agroupofpeopledecidedtowalkbehindtheusualmarchingsoldiersand
youthfulcadets,holdinghome-madeposterswithaphotographofsomeoneintheirfamily
whohadbeenkilledinthewar.Itwasalocalinitiativewhichcaughtonveryquicklyand
spreadacrossthecountry.By8thMay2015(whenIwasinPermaspartofanofficial
Oxfordcitydelegation)thousandsofPermiansspenttheeveningmakingpostersreadyfor
awalkinaprocessionthenextday.AndsoinPermonMay9th,outinthebigparadearea
wehadballetandsoldiers,children,andaPerm-madetankthatwentallthewaytoBerlin,
mountedonalorry-thatgotbigapplause-andlargishcrowds.Butafterthesedisplays
therecame,walkingdownKomsomolskyProspect30,000Permcitizens,carryingposters.
[Population-onemillion.]
Itwasentirelypeople-leditwasentirelycivic,anditwasverymoving.

Whatdidmyrespondentssay.Almostallofthemsaidthatthiswasawonderfulideathat
camefromthepeople,representedthepeople,andgaveprideandlovetoeveryone.Even
themostextremescepticsaid'OnthismatterIhavenotyetmadeupmymind'whichwas
somekindofgrudgingapproval.Butoneyoungpacifist-humanistcouldnotquiteapprove.

'Again,adifficultquestion.Ontheonehand-ImmortalLegionisagoodideafornational
rejoicingandpreservingthenationalhistoricalmemory.Itcaughtpublic'sattentionandwas
widelyshownonTV.Butontheotherhand-isn'titbettertoshownationalrejoicinginsome
moresociallyusefularrangements?Helpingthepoor,orphansorevenjustplantingtrees.
Tomyminditwasbetter,whensomeyearsagowehadacelebrationofVictorydayplanting
apinetreeandplacingasignwithanameofrelative,whodiedduringthewar.Ithink,our
ancestorswouldhaveapproveditmore.'

OneofthewordsthatappearedinanswerstothesetwoquestionsaboutCivicSocietywas
'patriotic'.Itoccurredquiteoften.Anditraisesthequestionofwhen'patriotism'isagood
thingandwhenitisnot.

OneoftheaccusationslevelledagainstPutinby'theWest'isthathehasencouragednasty
kindsofnationalismthatinordertobolsterupRussiahehasgivenquietsupporttovarious
neo-NaziRussiangroups.

Iwanttosaysomethingaboutthisimmediately.Idonotdoubtthatthereareunpleasant
Russian'nationalists',justasthereareunpleasantBritish'nationalists'quiteanumberof
whomexpecttoseeincreasingattentiontotheirviewsinthiscountry.Russianneo-nazis
havetheirwebsites,theiranti-Muslim,anti-Semite,anti-Caucasian,anti-Ukrainianviews.
Theyhavedrunkenfracasandtheycanbemurderous.ButIhaveneverseenorheardany
Russianapprovingofsuchgroups-includingthemostfiercelypatrioticandenthusiastic
followersofofficialRussianpropaganda.OfcourseImeetaselectednumberofpeople
bothinRussiaandinBritain.Idon'tmeetextremenationalistsinBritain.Butinbothcases
thesepeopleseemtobefringegroups,notwelcomedatallbygovernmentsorofficials.

OnVictoryDayinMoscow,asIsaid,thegovernmentbroughtoutmissilesandadvanced
armaments-thebiggestdisplayever.InthatsenseRussiannationalismwastothefore.In
ashortspeechPutinthankedtheAmericans,theBritishandotheralliesforhelpingto
defeatNazismin1945-andquietlyindicatedthattheyhadchosennottocomeonthis70th
anniversary.HetalkedaboutthefightforhumanitytowhichalltheseRussiancitizens'
ancestorshadcontributed,AndheshowedoffRussianstrengthtotheforeigndignitaries.

Then-advancingonRedSquarecameamassofordinarypeople.Andtotheconfusionof
theChinesePresident,Putingotdownoffthetribunalandwenttojointhewalkers,carrying
apictureofhisownfatherwhofoughtinthewar.Inthiscrowdhewasoneofhalf-a-million.
Isthisanexampleofgrotesquegovernmentpropaganda?IsitanexampleofthePresident
takingoverthelocalcivicdemonstrationsofthepeople?OrisitawayforthePresidentto
bepartofthepeople.(Hewasafterall,walkinginthemidstofthousandssomeofwhom
probablydidnotfeeltotallyenthusiasticabouthim.)

WouldObamadothis?WouldCameron?Doesitmatter?

IaskthesequestionsasIcomeontothelastquestionwhichIsentouttomyreaders.

(8)HasRussiachangedrecently.Andifso,forthebetterortheworse.

Somepeoplesaidnothingmuchhadchangedexceptpriceshadgoneup.Usuallythe
implicationseemedtobe-lifeisgenerallydullorgloomyandwehavetoputupwithit.

Asmallishminoritysaidithaddefinitelychangedfortheworse:norespectforhumanrights,
toomuchChurch-propaganda,terriblemass-media,agenerallybrain-washedpopulation.

"Russiahaschangedfortheworsebecauseoftheactivegovernmentalpropaganda:all
thosetalksabout'externalenemiesofRussia','Russianspiritualbonds',and'greatnessof
Russia'makemesick."

Themajorityhoweversaid,'Yes,somethinghaschanged.Acomingtogetherofpeople,a
senseofbeingRussianwithpride.'Sowhatmakesonerespondentsickisobviously
relatedtothepridefeltbyothers.Isit,though,morethangrandwordsfromtoppeople
transmittedthroughthepopulation?

Hereisacommentbyaverythoughtfulcorrespondent.

'Russiahaschangedalotforthelasttwelveyears(notmanychangessince2013,asIcan
see).Thereareverygoodthings-forexample,inbiggercitiesrathersuccessfulwork
againstcorruptionisbeingheldpeoplehavebecome"sated"withfood,goodsand
pleasuresandarelookingforsomethingelse.Andstill,therearethingsthatseemtome
sadandsavage-thementioned"closeness"ofStateandChurch,sometypesof
discrimination,censorshipinmedia,forexample.'

Andnow,fromaprovincialcity-andIcouldhavepickedupmanyothercomments:

'IthinkRussiahaschangedandischangingforthebetter.Peoplearebecomingmore
patriotic,theyaremoreconfidentintheirfuture(youcanseethatbythenumberofbabies
beingborn)-ourbirthrateisdefinitelygoingup!Morepeoplearewillingtoworkforthe
benefitofthecountry.Notonlyfortheirpersonalsurvival.

'AnotherthingthatInotice,sinceIamintouchwiththissphere,isthattheyareclosing
downalotoforphanages,becausetherearejusttoofewchildreninthem.Theyare
mergingseveralorphanagesintoone,becausewedon'tneedthatmanyanymore.One
reasonisthatlessandlessbabiesandchildrenareabandonedandtheotherthingisthata
lotarebeingadopted.Thereisawholeboomofadoptions,Iknowseveralfamilies,who
haveadoptedchildrenevenhavingtheirownones.Thatisanotherpositivetendencythat
saysthatpeoplearebecomingmoreempathictoothers,theyarenotonlycenteredaround
theirpersonallives,butlookingoutward,tryingtohelptheir"neighbours".

'Anationalideaisbeingformedagain,whichhasbeensadlylackingafterthefallofthe
USSR.'

Orassomeoneelseputit:

"Thisdidnothappenovernightbutgradually.Thepeoplearestraighteningtheirshoulders..."

IcouldgoonbutIwillleaveitthereandwaitforquestions.

Answerscamefrom:Arkhangelsk,Barnaul,Belgorod,Blagoveshensk,Chelyabinsk,Chita,
Khabarovsk,Kolomna,Krasnodar,Kurgan,Kursk,Magnitogorsk,Moscow,Naberezhny
Chelny,Novgorod,Omsk,Perm,Piatigorsk,Rostov-on-Don,Samara,StPetersburg,
Tomsk,Tula,Tver,Ulan-Ude,VladivostokandYekaterinburg.

Extracontributionswhichareofinterest:
AreyoumoreorlesssatisfiedwiththeannexationofCrimea?

'Yes.In2010(!!!)IhadabackpackingsummertravelintheCrimeaandstayedovernights
atdozensofordinaryhomesIhadneverknownbefore.IreturnedtoRussiaratherstartled
withthepovertyanddespairthosepeoplelivedin,aswellaswiththeirstrongresolutionto
startmilitaryactionsagainstKiev,incasetheUkrainiangovernmentproceededwiththe
pro-NATOpolicyandturnedtheirbackonRussia.Lotsofpeoplewerekeepingarmsinthe
cellars(Isawthat!!)andmenspokeabouttheirreadinesstodefend"Crimea,theRussian
land"(asoneCossack,aged30said,"WeareRussian,andifKievevertrenchesonour
righttobeRussian,weareorganized,armedandreadytocombat,we'lldefendourland").
TheatmosphereofhatredbetweenvariouspartsofUkrainewasshockingandreally
frightening.Itwasevident,itcouldn'tlastlong.'

'So,whatIwanttosayis:1)theconflictinUkraineisaresultoflong-timedomestic
tensions2)anyforcesthathavebeenfuelingtheconflictaremerelyusingthegroundthat
becamebadlyillbecauseofunwiseactionsoftheUkrainianleadersinthe00s3)theother
scenarioinMarch2014wouldhaveprobablymeantseverestcivilwarinUkraine,withmuch
moredrasticconsequencesforUkrainiansthantheyarehavingnow.'

(4)TheRussiangovernmenthasrepeatedlycalledforanegotiatedpeacesettlementin
EasternUkraine,andworkedattheMinsk1andthentheMinsk2agreements.Isthere
anythingmore-anythingpractical-thattheRussiangovernmentcandotobringabout
peace?

'Ithinkno,becauseit'snotourproblems,reallyIdon'tunderstandwhywholeWorldasks
Russiatomakesomethingforpeace.TheproblemfirstconsideredUkraine,theirpolitic,
economicandsocialhabits,theymakeitbyowncauses.ManyofUkrainepeoplewantsto
liveinRussia,ECandothercountries,becausetheycan'tliveinUkraine.Whatandwhy
shouldwedoelse.Russiahelpsrefugees,butECandUSAdon't,sowhy?'

HasRussiachangedforbetterorworse?

(Anextremeview,butonewhichissupported(orseemstobesupported)byofficial
governmentpropaganda.)'IdonotwantmychildrentoliveaccordingtoEuropean
stereotypesandstandards-andthey,toputitmildly,havedegradedrecently,iftorecall
onlythegaypolicy!!!ThisisDEGRADATIONofthemoralvaluesandthisisdiseasedmind
whichisbeingimposedonRussia,astrongandindependentnation.Idonotwanttolive
amonggaysandlesbians.Theseareabnormalcaseswhicharepopularizedbymighty
EuropeansandAmericans,whowanttocontroltheworld,butareactuallylosingthegame,
becauseit'simpossibletooppresspeoplewhohavetheirownidentities(Russians,
Muslims,Jews...).'

[returntoContents]

#10
RussiaInsider
www.russia-insider.com
September21,2015
MyFirst-HandAccountofaProvincialRussianCity(It'sBustling!)
TravellingalongtheTransSiberianRailwayfromMoscowtoPermrevealsabustling
moderncity-totallydifferentfromthedarkprovincialRussiaofwesternfancy
ByAlexanderMercouris
AlexanderMercourisisawriteroninternationalaffairswithaspecialinterestinRussiaand
law.HehaswrittenextensivelyonthelegalaspectsofNSAspyingandeventsinUkrainein
termsofhumanrights,constitutionalityandinternationallaw.Heworkedfor12yearsinthe
RoyalCourtsofJusticeinLondonasalawyer,specializinginhumanrightsand
constitutionallaw.HisfamilyhasbeenprominentinGreekpoliticsforseveralgenerations.
Heisafrequentcommentatorontelevisionandspeakeratconferences.Heresidesin
London.

AsIreportedforRussiaInsiderafewweeksago,IhaverecentlyvisitedPerm,animportant
industrialcityintheUrals.

ThisismyfirstvisittoaRussiancityotherthanMoscoworSt.Petersburg.
ThetripwasmadepossiblebytheOxfordRussiaProject.Thisis-amongstmuchelse-an
academicexchangebringingtogetherheadsofEnglishDepartmentsfromacrossRussia
andBelarusforseminarsandmeetingswithmajorfiguresintheliterarysceneinEngland.

IamnotawriterandIdonotteachEnglishliterature,butthroughthekindnessofKaren
Hewitt-theextraordinarilygiftedcoordinatoroftheproject-Iwasabletoaccompanymy
wife,whoheadsanEnglishliteraturedepartmentataUniversityinEngland,andwhoisa
regularparticipantintheproject.

ThoughIdidnottakepartinanyoftheseminars,throughthekindnessofthestaffofPerm
StateUniversity(Iwouldspeciallymention-andthank-myoutstandinghostessSvetlana
Polyakova,togetherwiththedeanofhistory,IgorKirianovandhisdaughterOlgaKirianova)I
hadanexceptionallyfullseriesofmeetings,meetinganextraordinaryvarietyofpeoplewho
werekindenoughtogivemetheirtimeandtoanswermymanyquestions.

Theresultwasanexcitingandstimulatingvisit,whichansweredmanyquestions,and
posednewones.

OverthenextfewweeksIintendtowriteaseriesofpiecessettingoutmyimpressions.

BeforehoweverIdosohoweverthereisonegeneralpointIwanttomake.

TheoverwhelmingimpressiontheWesternandRussianliberalmediaconveyoflifein
RussiaoutsideMoscowandSt.Petersburgisoneofgrindingpovertyandharshness.

ArecentarticleinTheEconomist,withtheominoustitle"Russia'sEconomy:ThePathto
Penury",isacaseinpoint.Thearticlestartswithatypicallygloomyopeningparagraph:

"Almost500km(310miles)separateMoscow,Russia'sglitteringcapital,fromitslesser-
knownnamesake,adyingvillagedeepintheforestsoftheTverskayaOblast.

TheroadthatconnectsthembeginsassmoothasphaltbesidetheredwallsoftheKremlin
andendsasarutteddirttrackamidabandonedwoodenhomes.

Thecharactersthatpopulatethetownsandcitiesalongthewayoftenliveverydifferent
lives.

ButasRussia'srecessiondeepens(thecountry'sGDPshrankby4.6%inthesecond
quartermeasuredyear-on-year),theeffectsresonateacrosseverystratumofsociety."
Itproceedstopaintapictureofmiseryandhopelessness,withtheclearimplicationthatthis
ishowlifeislivedbeyond"Russia'sglitteringcapital"-Moscow.

HavingnowactuallyseenPermandmetwithpeoplefromacrossRussiawhowere
attendingthevariousseminars,andhavingalsoseenoneofthesmallsettlementsonthe
railwaylinkingMoscowtoPerm,Icansaythisiscompletenonsense.

ThereispovertyinRussia,ruraldepopulationdoesoccur,andtherearepoorvillagesand
regions.TosupposethatthewholecountryoutsideMoscowandSt.Petersburgislikethat
ishoweversowrongastobegrotesque.

TherealityofPermisofabustlingmoderncity,withpowerfulindustries,adynamic
university,andahighlydevelopedculturallife.Basedonwhatpeoplefromotherregionstold
me,itisbynomeansuntypical.

ThatisnottosaythatPerm-likethecountryasawhole-isfreeofproblems.Overthe
courseoftheseriesofarticlesIintendtowriteIshalltouchonsomeofthem.

Howeveraproperunderstandingofthecountryandofitsproblemsisonlypossibleonce
themythsarebanishedaway.Giventheimmensetractionthesemythshave-andthe
interestsomehaveinperpetuatingthem-banishingthemisnoteasy.Howevertheeffort
hastobemade,andPermisasgoodaplacetostartasany.

[returntoContents]

#11
TheNationalInterest
September24,2015
Russia'sMoralFrameworkandWhyItMatters
AlookintoRussia'smoralframeworkandtherelationshipithaswithreligionandstate
valuescouldhelpusbetterunderstandwhatmakesMoscowtick.
ByNicolaiN.Petro
NicolaiN.PetroisaprofessorUniversityofRhodeIsland.

Russia'smoralframework,particularlyasitappliestocontemporaryRussianforeignpolicy,
differsmarkedlyfromthatoftheWest.

Whilepost-SovietRussiahasnoguidingideology,itdoesarguethatcertainvalues,if
adoptedassharedprinciplesofbehavior,aremorecongenialtointernationalorderthan
others.Russiawouldliketoseesuchprinciplesofbehaviorbemorewidelyadopted,but,
recognizingthateachnation'sculturaldevelopmentisunique,itverymuchopposesefforts
topromoteanyonesetofethicalvaluesbeyonditsborders.Hence,theonlytimethatthe
internationalcommunitymaylegitimatelyappealtotransnationalethicalnorms,iswhen
sucharesanctionedbytheUnitedNations.Thisisahighbar,but,Russiaargues,ithas
beensethighonpurpose,toavoidabuse.

ThespecificvaluesthatRussiaseesasmorecongenialtointernationalorderarethose
sharedbyRussia'sfourtraditionalreligiouscommunities-Judaism,Christianity,Islamand
Buddhism.Theircomfortableinteractionwitheachotherandwiththestate,Russiaargues,
demonstratesthatreligionneednotbeasourceofconflictinthemodernworld.Indeed,
RussianspokesmenhaveoftenarguedthatWesternnationscouldlearnalotfromthe
Russianmodel.

ThismoralframeworkhasledtofourareasoffrictionwiththeWest.

Thefirstinvolvesthenatureoftheinternationalorder.Sincetheriseofhumanrightsand
democracyasexplicitU.S.foreign-policyobjectivesinthe1970s,Westernpoliticalleaders
havearguedthat,inthebestofallpossibleworlds,foreignpolicyisareflectionofdomestic
politics.Thetheorybuiltaroundthisassumption-"democraticpeacetheory"-initsmost
popularformistakentosuggestthatdemocraciesdonotgotowarwitheachother.States
thatpromotedemocracyarethereforepromotingamorallydesirableinternationalorder,
whereasstatesthatobjecttosucheffortsaredeemedimmoral.

AsWesternconcernfordemocracyandhumanrightshasoutpacedthatofinternational
institutions,theUnitedStatesanditsallieshavesoughtwaysaroundtheseinstitutions,by
assertingthatWesternvaluesarethedefacto,ifnotdejure,internationalstandard.When
severalWesternnationsactinconcert,therefore,theydonotrequireanyexplicitmandate
fromtheUnitedNations.ThishasbeenasourceofconsiderablefrictionbetweenRussia
andtheWest.

Athirdsourceoftensionstemsfromtheerosionoftraditionalreligionsasthearbitersof
moralityintheWest.ForsomeintheWest,itfollowsthatinternationalsocietymustnow
findsomealternativenormativeframework.Sincethevaluesofindividualism,secularism
andmodernizationledtotheriseoftheWest,accordingtothislineofthinking,theyserve
asappropriatebenchmarksfortherestofhumanity.

Finally,intoday'sRussianOrthodoxChurchiscloselypartneredwiththestate.Itprovides
bothintellectualandmoralsupporttomanystatepolicies,notbecauseithasto,but
becauseitwantsto.ThecurrentmoralframeworkofRussianforeignpolicyis,indeed,its
view,whichtheChurchpromotesbecauseitisconvincedthatcreatinga"congenial
internationalorder"willassistitinitsthreefoldsalvificmission-tosaveindividualsouls,to
saveallnationalculturesthathavebeenbaptizedintoChrist,andtosaveallmankind.
Needlesstosay,thisisasfarfromthedoctrineofseparationofChurchandStateasEast
isfromWest.

ThemoralcontoursofthepresentEast-Westconflictshouldnowbereadilyapparent.
Russiaopposestheadoptionofanysinglesetofculturalvaluesasthestandardfor
internationalbehavior.ManyintheWestcounterthatWesternvaluesarenotjustalone
culturalstandard,butthedefactouniversalstandard.Russialabelsthisunilateralismand
advocatesamultipolarworldorderbasedonpluriculturalismasabetteralternative.

Pluriculturalismarguesthatthereisaninherent("God-given,"accordingtoVladimirPutin)
valuetodiversityamongnations.Thisisdistinctfrommulticulturalismwhichvalues
diversitywithinnations.Russiaassignsdiversitywithinnationsalowerprioritythanitdoes
diversityamongnations.Bycontrast,Westernstatesmoretypicallyprizediversitywithin
nations(therightsoftheindividual),whereasamongnationstheyseektosubordinate
nationalculturaldifferencestostandards,suchashumanrights,thatexpressmodern
Westernvalues.

Thepotentialforinternationalconflictisobvious,butitishardlyinevitable.Foronething,if
welookatthisdebateinhistoricalandreligiouscontext,weseethatithasdeeprootsinthe
West.

Thus,Russia'spluriculturalism,whicharguesthatnationalculturaldistinctionsimpose
certainmorallimitsontheconductofforeignpolicy,usedtobecalled"American
exceptionalism"inthiscountryandwastypicallycitedasthereasonAmericadoesNOTgo
abroad,asJohnQuincyAdamsputit,"insearchofmonsterstodestroy."Contrastthisto
presidentObama'sassertionlastyearatWestPointthat"Americamustalwaysleadonthe
worldstage.Ifwedon't,nooneelsewill,"whichtakesitforgrantedthatsubjectingall
nationstoAmericanleadershipisamoralgood.

Justhowmuchourmoralframeworkhasshiftedovertimecanbegleanedfromthefact
thattodaythebestknownarticulatorofAdams'concernthat,shouldAmericabecome"the
dictatressoftheworld:shewouldbenolongerbetherulerofherownspirit,"isnoteven
American.ItisVladimirPutin.

NoristheOrthodoxChurch'smoralframeworkas"anti-modern"or"anti-liberal"asit
appearstobeatfirstblush.ThewritingsofseniorRussianclergyonthesesubjectsquite
nuanced,arguingthatboththeEnlightenmentandliberalismwerebothvaluableand
progressivesocialidealsintheirday,butthathavingabandonedthemoralframework
providedbytheChurch,theyhavedeformedandbecomemonstrous.

WhattheOrthodoxChurchdoesreject,andthiswholeheartedly,issecularism.Andthefact
thatcontemporaryWesternsocietiestendtoregardsecularism,alongwithmodernityand
liberalism,asformingthequintessentialWesterntrinityofvalues,issomethingthatthe
RussianOrthodoxChurchiskeentoreverse.

Thisis,ofcourse,aconflictofvisions,andsomepoliticalfalloutfromitisinevitable.Itis
alsounderstandablethat,inseculardiscourse,theRussianOrthodoxChurchisoften
treatedasapoliticalactor,becauseitclearlyis.Itisalsoaneconomicactor,alegalactor,a
culturalactor,aneducationalactor,insumitisactiveinliterallyeverysphereofpubliclife.
Thequestionweoughttoponder,however,ishowbesttopreventthisconflictofidealsfrom
spillingoverintooutrighthostility.Onewaytomitigatethepoliticalrepercussionsthatderive
fromourconflictingeschatologiesmightbetorecognizejusthowlittlethissecularactivity
meanstotheOrthodoxChurch.

WeshouldneverlosesightofthefactthattheChurchseesitself,firstandforemost,asa
supernaturalactor-themanifestationoftheHolySpiritinhistory.Whatdopoliticalbattles
matterwhenoneiscompetingforeveryindividualsoul,fortheverysoulofmankind?This
latteristheonlystrugglethathasmeaningfortheChurch,thatisitsraisond'etre,andits
outcomewillnotbedecidedbypolitics.

Moreover,inthisall-definingbattle,theChurchhasanalmostinsurmountableadvantage
overallpoliticalactors,governments,andevennations.Itstimeframeforsuccessis
eternity,whichisawfullyhardtobeat.

ButhowsuccessfulcanRussiabeinitseffortstopropagateitsmoralframework?How
attractiveisit?Theanswerdependsonwhichregionoftheworldoneistalkingabout.

Ifsoftpoweristhoughtofastheuseofreligiousand/orculturalaffinitytoachieveforeign
policyobjectives,thenitisnotsurprisingthatmostofRussia'sneighborsremainquite
receptivetoRussiansoftpower.Sometimes,asinUkraineandGeorgia,thismutual
dependencyismanifestedina"love-hate"relationshipthatkeepsRussiaatthecenterof
publicattention,evenasnationalelitesdesperatelyseektodistancetheircountryfrom
Russianculturalinfluence.

CultureandreligionthereforeremainpowerfulassetsinRussia'seffortstoestablisha
EurasianUnionandtoimpedealternatives,sinceitisalwayseasiertoforgepoliticaland
economicallyattractiveoptionsfromacommonculturalfoundation,thantoattemptthe
reverse.

ButtherealtestforRussiansoftpowerwillbewhetheritcanshapepreferencesinareasof
theglobethathavetraditionallybeenoutsideitsculturalinfluence.Toexpanditsreach,
Russiaispromotingtwosimplemessagesthatarelikelytoresonatedeeplywithmanynon-
Westernstates.

Thefirst,isthatitisalrightfornon-Westernnationstobetruetothemselves.Tosucceedin
theworld,onedoesnothavetomoveinlockstepwiththeWesternmodelofdevelopment.
TheriseoftheBRICS,Russiaargues,hasproventhatdiverseapproachestodevelopment
cancompeteverysuccessfullywith"theWashingtonConsensus,"andthatlocaltraditions
canprovideareservoirofsocialresourcesthatcanbeusedtoenhanceglobal
competitiveness.

ThesecondmessageisthatitisalrighttochallengeprevailingWesternnotionsconcerning
theadvantagesofaconsumerorientedsociety.Inmanynon-Westernsocieties,
consumerismisblamednotonlyforleadingdirectlytospiritualcrisis,butalsotoresource,
demographic,andecologicalcrises.Thecommonresponsehasbeentoseeka
sustainable,autochthonousspiritualdevelopment,uponwhichtobuildasustainable,
autochthonouseconomicdevelopment.

Inhisbook,TheRighteousMind,professorJonathanHaidthighlightsthevastvaluesgap
thatexistsbetweenthe"Western,Educated,Industrialized,Rich,andDemocratic"nations
(WEIRD),andnationsthatpreferan"ethicofcommunity"oran"ethicofdivinity."Inthese
latter,Haidtwrites,"thepersonallibertyofsecularwesternnations"-includingthe
unrestrainedfreedomofexpression-"lookslikelibertinism,hedonism,andacelebrationof
humanity'sbaserinstincts."

Whathastransformedthisratheramorphousvaluesconsensusintoadiscernibleglobal
agendaforanewworldorderisthegrowingsensethattheWest,thoughstilldominantin
power,wealth,andresources,lackstheculturalandspiritualcapacitytodealwithmany
emergingglobalcrises.Traditionalreligionsalsotypicallyreinforcetheideathatthereisa
limittohumanity'sabilitytotransformitselfanditsenvironment,andthattoassertthe
contrary,as"WEIRD"valuesdo,isdangeroushubris.

MostWesternanalysts,however,cannotfathomwhythiswouldleadtoaconfluenceof
interestsamongcountriesasdiverseasBrazil,Russia,India,ChinaandSouthAfrica.[1]
Perhapsabetterwaytothinkofitisthis-thesoftpoweroftheBRICSisanexpressionnot
ofanyonesetofnationalvalues,butofthecommonvaluesthat,accordingtothesestates,
oughttounderlieanewinternationalorder.

Russia'smoralframeworkfitsthisagendalikeaglove,magnifyingtheimpactofRussian
softpower.Russianowbelievesthatitcanrelyonacoreconstituencyofstatestoassistit
inthefaceofintensewesternhostility,sinceitseffortsbenefitnotonlyRussia,butindirectly
allnationsthatsharethedesireforanewinternationalorder.

Thisisanextendedversionoftheauthor'spresentationon"Russia'sSoftPower:AMatter
forChurchandState"attheCarnegieCouncilforEthicsinInternationalAffairsinNewYork
City,September10,2015.

[1]AnotableexceptionisprofessorGilbertRozmanwhoselatestbook,TheSino-Russian
ChallengetotheWorldOrder,arguesthatadeepculturalaffinityhasemergedbetween
ChinaandRussiathatisbasedonthecommongoalofreshapingthepresentWestphalian
internationalsystem.

[returntoContents]

#12
http://gordonhahn.com
December8,2015
Putin:ARussianNeo-Traditionalist,NotaWesternConservative
ByGordonM.Hahn

ManyinthatsmallbutnotinsignificantminorityofWestern,includingAmerican
conservativeswhotoonedegreeoranothersupportmanyofRussianPresidentVladimir
Putin'sactionsdosooftenundertheillusionthatheisaconservative.Towhatextentdo
Putin'spositionscorrelatewithWesternconservatismandtowhatextentdotheydiffer?

PutinisnotaconservativeintheWesternorAmericansenseoftheterm.(Neitherishea
StalinistorrestoreroftheSovietorevenRussianemoireofold.Indeed,Putinhasjust
approvedanewmonumentandmuseumtobebuiltindowntownMoscowdedicatedthe
victimsofStalinismandcommunism.)

RussianNeo-Traditionalism,NotConservatism

AlthoughsomeofthepositionsPutinstakesoutinbuildingapost-SovietRussian
traditionalismoverlapwithviewsheldbysomeWesternconservatives,PutinisaRussian
traditionalistandstatistratherthanaWestern-styleconservative.

Putin'snewRussiantraditionalismorneo-traditionalismisbasedonseveralprinciples:(1)
statism,(2)stability,(3)freedomof,notfreedomfromreligion,and(4)culturalandsocial
conservatismortraditionalism.

Putin'sStatism

Putinisastatistinpolitics,economics,andsocioculturalmatters.Inpolitics,thestateand
politicalstabilityarealmostalwaystobegivenpreferenceoverindividuallibertyand
freedomwhentheseprinciplesclash.Forexample,ifmasspublicdemonstrationsrunthe
riskofdevolvingintoviolenceorattemptstooverthrowtheauthorities,thenthose
demonstrationswillbebannedorotherwiserestricted.

ThisisnottosaythereisnofreedomofassociationandspeechinRussia.Thereare
politicalprotestsheldsomewhereinRussiaeveryday,andallpointsofviewcanbeheard
onthestateandprivateairwaves,printmedia,andInternet.Anotherexampleisthestate's
willingnesstoblocktheparticipationofsomepoliticalpartiesinelectionsforfeartheymay
destabilizethelegislativeandpoliticalprocess.Anotheristhestate'scompletecontrolof
nationaltelevisionbroadcastingor'airwaves'(excludingsatelliteandInternettelevision),
thoughownershipinradio,printandInternetisdecentralizedandincludesprivatevendors.

Insimpleterms,PutinandmanyRussiansarewillingtorestrictpoliticalandcivilrightsin
ordertoensurethereisnoriskofpoliticalinstabilitywhatsoever.Thisisanapproachalmost
allAmericanconservativesabhor.Russianliberalsandleftists,ontheotherhand,arequite
eagertoputcontrolsonmedia,especiallyconservative-dominatedtalkradioshows,to
enforcepoliticalcorrectness(conformity)inthemedia,schools,universities,andthe
workplaceinordertoensure'balance,'andtoenforcereversediscriminationagainstwhite
males,callingitaffirmativeactionandbreakingtheglassceiling.Onthislastcategory,Putin
wouldmostcertainlynotaver.

Thesameistruewith'Putinomics'.SincePutin'sarrivalintheKremlinin2000,thestate's
roleintheeconomyhassteadilyexpanded.Putinnationalizedlargechunksofmajor
industries,creatingnationalgiants,andincreasedthestate'sshareintheeconomyfrom
minority-ownershiptomajority-ownership.Therehasbeennomajorrestructuringthrough
privatizationorsignificantsectoraldiversification.Exportsofenergy(mostlyoilandgas),
naturalresources(gold,diamonds,coal)andunfinishedproducts(steelandothermetals)
comprisemostofRussia'stradeexportsandbudgetrevenues.Exceptionsarethenuclear
energyindustry(state-owned)andtheprivatebuthighlysubsidized(asintheWest)
agriculturalproductionandfoodmanufacturingindustries,whererealreformshave
producedgloballycompetitiveindustries.Regardless,fullyorpartlystate-ownedcompanies
accountforsome60percentofRussianstockmarketvaluation,comparedto80percentin
China.State-ownedbankscontroloverhalfofRussia'sbankingoperations.

In2011,theRussianbusinessweeklyBiznesivlast'(BusinessandPower)examinedthe
state'sshareincompanies'totalshareholdervalueinordertodeterminethelevelofstate
participationinkeyeconomicsectors.Theresearchshowedthatstateparticipationwas
greatestintransportation(railways,oilandnaturalgaspipelines)withthestateholding75
percentofassets.Othersectorsregisteredasfollows:aerospaceandshipbuilding-57
percent,electricity-50percentormore,naturalgasproduction-50percent,productionof
electronichardware-27percent,machine-building-15percent,telecommunications-14
percent,construction-9percent,oilindustry-23percent,oilrefining-8percent,andnon-
ferrousmetalsproduction-3percent.Thesteelindustry'sassetsarecompletelyunder
privateownership
(http://rbth.com/articles/2012/03/23/what_kind_of_capitalism_has_russia_built_15160.html).
However,muchoftheprivatizationinthesespheresoccurredinthe1990snotunderPutin.
Indeed,in2004theKremlinnationalizedoneofRussia'slargestoilcompanies'Yukos',and
in2011Putinreversedmosttheprivatizationofelectricityproductionandsupply,whichwas
atestcaseofprivatizationformajorsectorsintheeconomy.

Beyondsectoralownershipanalysis,therearesomeareaswheretheeconomyhasseen
liberalizationinthePutinera,butithasbeenachievedbywayofastate-driven
modernizationthatseekstokeepanyeconomicliberalizationfromaffectingthepolitical
economyandpoliticsproper.Thiscanbeseenfromthesphereswhereliberalizationhas
occurred:businessfreedom,tradefreedom,fiscalfreedom,laborfreedom,andfreedom
fromcorruption(www.heritage.org/index/country/russia).Anothercaveathereisthatalmost
allthesesuccessesaretheresultsofreformscarriedoutduringDmitriiMedvedev's
presidency.Thus,itdependsonhowmuchfreereinonethinksMedvedevhadinorderto
determinehowmuchcreditthenPrimeMinisterPutindeserves.Medvedevbilledhimselfas
aReaganite/Thatcheriteconservativeineconomicsattheoutsetofhispresidency,butthe
promisedrobustprivatizationprogramnevermaterialized,leavingtheeconomylargely
state-runandstate-owned.

ItisreallyonlyinthesocialandculturalrealmsthatmanyofPutin'sviewsapproximate
Westernconservatism.HedefendsreligiousfreedomagainstattemptsbyRussianliberals
torestrictreligiousfreedom.Forexample,ratherthanbanningreligiouseducationinpublic
schools,Putin'sEducationMinistryimplementedaprogramofchoice,wherebyparents
couldchoosefromcoursesonRussianOrthodoxChristianity,Judaism,Islam,Buddhism,
andethicsfortheirchildren.Officialstatefunctionsandchaplainsforthemilitaryincludethe
clergyofRussia'sothertraditionalreligions-theROC,Judaism,Islam,andBuddhism.
Statefundshelpfinancethebuildingofchurches,synagogues,mosques,anddatsans.To
besure,PutinhasgivenprideofplacetotheRussianOrthodoxChurch(ROC)butonly
slightly,and80percentofbelieversinRussiaidentifythemselvesasRussianOrthodox.

Inconsistentwithhispro-religioussocio-culturalpositionisPutin'stoleranceoffree,state-
fundedabortions,whichremainsanon-issueinRussianpolitics-aholdoverfromthe
SovieterathatWesternliberalsdonotchallenge.

Consistentwithhisreligiousstance,Putinhasputmodestlimitsonhomosexuality,
specificallythebanningofpropagandizinghomosexualityandtransgenderismtochildren.
Asanaside:clearly,anysanegaypersonwouldmuchprefertoliveinRussiathaninthe
manyrepressiveIslamiccountrieswithwhichtheU.S.hashadcloseties.Asanother
aside:IdonotrecallU.S.PresidentBarackObamalecturingtheSaudiKingabouttheneed
toobservegayrights,includinggaymarriage,thestuffoffun,prosepctiveSaturdayNight
Livesketch.

Oneareawheresomeconservativesseemtosufferfrommilitaryenvyistheirsometimes
supportorunderstandingforPutin'srobustforeignpolicyandmilitaryadventures.
Conservativestendtobemorehawkishthanliberalsandleftists,puttingasidethefactthat
someliberalsarebecomingrathergunghowhenitcomestohumanitarianinterventions
thatoftendonotinvolveavitalAmericaninterest.Mostconservatives,excludinglibertarians
andsomeothers,respectaleaderwillingtostandupforthecountry'snationalinterestsand
security.TheconservativecritiqueofPresidentObama'sforeignpolicyissometimes
couchedintermssuchas:'AtleastPutindefendshiscountry.'

Conclusion

PutinisaRussiantraditionalistandstatistratherthanaWestern-styleconservative.His
views,whileclosertothoseofAmericanconservativesonsocialissues,aremuchcloser
toAmericanliberalandleftistpositionsregardingstateinterferenceintheeconomy.Putin
hasachievedintheRussianeconomywhatPresidentObamaandotherAmericanand
evenEuropeanleftistscanonlydreamof,fornow.Eveninpolitics,Putinisclosertothe
increasinglyintolerantleftthantheright.

Sowhichisgreater-theextenttowhichPutin'spositionscorrespondwithconservatismor
differfromconservatism?Itappearsthelatterandbyaconsiderable,notconservative
margin.

GordonM.HahnisanAnalystandAdvisoryBoardMemberoftheGeostrategicForecasting
Corporation,Chicago,IllinoisaSeniorResearcher,CenterforTerrorismandIntelligence
Studies(CETIS),AkribisGroup,SanJose,CaliforniaandanAnalyst/Consultant,Russia
OtherPointsofView-RussiaMediaWatch,http://www.russiaotherpointsofview.com.

[returntoContents]

#13
Forbes.com
April25,2015
Russia'sEconomy:NotJustNaturalResources
ByMarkAdomanis
[Chartsherehttp://www.forbes.com/sites/markadomanis/2015/04/25/russias-economy-not-
just-natural-resources/]

Russia'seconomydoesn'tgetalotoflove.It's"Nigeriawithsnow,""BurkinaFasowith
rockets,"or,inJohnMcCain'soft-repeatedquip,"agasstationmasqueradingasacountry."

Tobesure,naturalresourcesgenuinelyplayalargerole.Itwouldbefoolish(and
inaccurate!)totrytototallydiscountthehugeinfluenceofcompanieslikeGazprom,
Rosneft,andseveralotherstate-runresourceextractors.TheRussianstate'sfinances
reallyarebasedontheheavytaxationofenergyproducers,andtheKremlinwouldbeina
worldoftroubleiftheoil/gasspigotevertrulyrandry.

ButRussia,despitewhatyouoftenhear,ismorethanjustagasstation.It'smanufacturing
andservicesectorsaren'tparticularlycompetitivebyworldstandards(veryfewpeoplein
NorthAmericaarebuyingRussiancars)buttheydoexist.

UsingWorldBankdataonnaturalresourcerents,officiallydefinedas"thedifference
betweenthevalueofcommodityproductionatworldpricesandtotalcostsofproduction,"
it'sinstructivetocompareRussia'sleveltothoseinthemembersofOPEC,theprototypical
petrostates.

Asisclearfromthechart,naturalresourcerentsareanon-negligiblepercentageof
Russianoutput.Buttheserentsarenowherenearashighasinmanyoftheworld'slargest
oilproducers.Russianresourcerentsaren'tevenparticularlylargecomparedtootherpost-
Sovietstates:Azerbaijan(36%),Kazakhstan(29%),andUzbekistan(20.1%)allhad
proportionallylargerrents.

It'salsointerestingtocompareRussia'sactualGDPpercapitawithwhatitwouldhave
beenifallnaturalresourcerentswereeliminated.Here,again,Russiajustdoesn'tappear
tobeparticularlyexceptionalwhencomparedtoOPECmembers.

Indeedafteradjustingforresourcerents,Russia'sGDPpercapitawouldberoughly
$19,000,alevelthatisbroadlysimilartopost-communistcountrieslikeBulgaria($15,600),
Poland($22,800),andRomania($18,000).Russia'sadjustedGDPpercapitaalso
comparesreasonablywellwithadjustedpercapitaincomesinotherresource-dependent
post-SovietstateslikeAzerbaijan($10,500)andKazakhstan($15,500)ormajoroil
producerstowhichitisoftencomparedlikeLibya($12,000),Venezuela($13,500),orIran
($9,000).

Sowhatisthetakeaway?IsitthatRussia'seconomyissomekindofbuddinghegemon?
No.Theimportantthingtorememberisthat,whenyoucompareittothoseofotherpost-
SovietstatesorOPECmembers,Russia'seconomyisnotuniquelyprimitiveorresource
dependent.WeneedtokeepthisinmindnottobolsterRussians'tenderfeelingsbut
becauseifyouformulatepolicybasedontheassumptionthatRussiaisa"gasstation
masqueradingasacountry"thatpolicywon'tworkverywellbecauseRussiaismuchmore
thanjustagasstation.

Indeed,asshownabove,Russiaminusallofitsincomefromoil,gas,timber,andminerals
isbasicallyamuchlargerversionofRomania.Romania,ofcourse,isn'texactlyan
economicmiracle,butitisademocraticmemberingoodstandingoftheEuropeanUnion
andNATO.

[returntoContents]
#14
ChristianScienceMonitor
May18,2015
SpurredbyWesterncriticism,Russiansexperiencesomethingnew:patriotism
Inthepast,Russiawasanempire,thenacommunistcolossus,thena'defeated'power
expectedtoadoptWesternways.ButcurrenttensionswiththeWestarefosteringwhat
maybethebirthofadistinctRussiannationalism.
ByFredWeir,Correspondent

MOSCOW-ThesnappingpointcameforPavelMelikhov,hesays,whenheheard
PresidentObamacompareRussiatoadisease.

InaspeechtotheUNlastSeptember,thepresidentlistedthetopthreatstoglobalsecurity,
withEbolacomingfirst,"RussianaggressioninEurope"second,andtheIslamicState
groupinthirdplace.Mr.Melikhov,amiddle-agedMoscow-areabusinessman,saysthat
momentcrystallizedhiswayofthinkingabouthiscountryanditsplaceintheworld.

HehadfeltsupportivewhenMoscowannexedCrimealastyear-asdidahugemajorityof
Russians-andsayshebelievedthatPresidentVladimirPutinwasdefendingRussia's
naturalinterestsbybackingRussian-speakingrebelsineasternUkraineagainsta
revolutionary,anti-MoscowgovernmentthattookpowerinKievlastyear.ButMr.Obama's
remarkjoltedhimbyrevealingagapingchasmbetweenwhatseemedobvioustohim,asa
Russian,andthewaypeopleintheWestseemtoperceivethesameevents.

Recommended:Sochi,Soviets,andtsars:HowmuchdoyouknowaboutRussia?
"Itwasn'tjustme.Allmyco-workerswerestunned,"hesays."TheleaderoftheUSputour
countryonablacklistwithavirusandaterroristorganization.Thatsaysitall.Themasks
areoff.TheUSisnotafriendit's'us'and'them'now.Ihavefinallyandcompletely
understoodthat."

Melikhovisnotanoutlierintoday'sRussiaindeed,heappearstobepartofthenew
normal.Overthepastyearsomethinghashappenedinthebroadpublicmind,whichlooks
tosomeexpertslikethebirthofadistinctRussiannationalismforthefirsttimeinhistory.

Inthepast,Russiawasanempire,thenacommunistcolossus,thena"defeated"power
thatwasexpected-evenbyitsleaders-toadoptWesternways.Tobea"Russian"always
meantbeingpartofastatewithgrandambitionsandanideologythatdidnotaddress,or
evenadmit,aseparateRussianexistence.

ButamidaglobalgeopoliticalcrisisoverUkraine,itspro-Europeanrevolution,andthecivil
warittriggered,"weseeRussiansgropingforanidentitymoreintenselythaneverbeforein
thepastquartercentury,"saysMashaLipman,anindependentpoliticalexpert.

"There'saclearnationalistdrive,yetstillnoclarityonwhatthenewidentityis.Russiaisno
longeranempire,butnotyetanationstate,"shesays.

Patriotism,awakened

It'snotthatMelikhovwasunpatrioticbefore.Whenhewasaboy,hewasaregularat
Desantnik,aprivatedowntownMoscowmilitary-patrioticclubstartedinthe1980sandrun
byformerspecialservicesofficers.There,youngpeoplearetaughtparamilitaryskillslike
hand-to-handcombat,flying,parachuting,andmarksmanship.

Theclub'spresidentisYuryShaparin,aveteranoftheSovietUnion'swarinAfghanistan,
whosayshefoundedtheclubtofosterpatrioticvaluesamongyoungpeopleinpractical
ways,mainlythroughphysicaltraining.Hekeptitgoingthroughthebitteryearsfollowingthe
USSR'scollapse,whentheeconomyimplodedandthen-PresidentBorisYeltsinledRussia
downapaththatseemedtoacceptnotonlytheWest'shegemony,butalsoitspolitical,
economic,andculturalvalues.

"ThereseemedlikenoroomforbeingaRussian.ItwashardtofeelpatrioticunderYeltsin,"
Mr.Shaparinsays,standinginDesantnik'sgym,whereaboutadozenyoungpeopleare
learningtokickbox.NearbythereisarackofKalashnikovrifles,forshootingpractice.

Thepastdecade-and-a-halfunderMr.Putinhavebeenyearsofrelativeprosperity,when
peoplegotonwiththeirprivatelivesandpaidlittleattentiontopolitics.But,accordingto
Shaparin,theeventsofthepastyearhaveawakenedasenseamongRussiansthatthey
arenotlikepeopleintheWest,theircountryhasitsowninterests,andtheyhavenooneto
relyonbutthemselves.

"Wedon'twishforwar,andwedon'tfeeltheWestisanenemy,butmanypeoplenowsee
thattheyaretryingtoforceusintoabox,surrounduswithmilitarybases,makeusgiveup
Ukraine,andbreakupwhat'sleftofourcountry,"hesays.

"WhatweteachhereisthatRussiacanbesaved,andallthesesanctionsandNATO
threatscanbedefeated,ifRussiansgrowmoreaware,learntobestrongandfit,andbe
willingtoworktogethertobuildabettercountry.Nothinggoodwillcomefromgivinginto
outsidepressure."

Anti-Americanism

Publicopinionsurveysoffersnapshotsofthisemergingmood.

MostfrequentlycitedaretheapprovalratingsofPutin,whichhaveremainedata
stratospheric80-pluspercentoverayear-aspanthatstartedwithanti-Moscowrevolution
inKiev.Thatwasfollowedbyfalloutofallkinds:thehastyannexationofthemainlyRussian-
populatedCrimeanpeninsulacovertKremlinsupportforpro-Russianseparatistsin
Ukraine'sbittercivilwarincreasingWesternsanctionsonRussia'seconomyalongwith
effortstoisolateMoscowontheworldstageaharsheconomiccrisisandanear-
catastrophicplungeinthevalueofthenationalcurrency,theruble.

AyearaftertheannexationofCrimea,apollbythestate-runVTsIOMagencyfoundthattwo-
thirdsofrespondentsapprovedoftheaction,and89percentbelievedtheterritoryshouldn't
bereturnedtoUkraineunderanycircumstances.AMarchsurveybytheindependent
LevadaCenterfoundthat68percentbelievethatRussiaisa"greatpower,"upfrom30
percentinanidenticalpolltaken10yearsago.

AnotherrecentVTsIOMpollfoundonlyaslightmajorityofRussianswereevenawareof
Westernsanctionsagainstthecountry,butofthose,wellover80percentbelievedthe
sanctionswereimposedwithillintenttowardRussia.Lessthan1percentthoughttheWest
had"goodintentions."

Mostalarmingly,anti-Americansentimentisatitshighestpeaksincereliablepollingof
Russiansbeganinthemid-1980s.AccordingtoaMarchLevadasurvey,73percentof
respondentshada"negative"attitudetowardtheUS,upfrom56percentayearearlier.

'Aprocess,notanaccident'

Thesedatapointsconnecttomakeacoherentpicture,sayexperts.TheUkrainiancrisis
wasjustatriggerforaprocessthatwaswaitingtohappen,saysOlgaKamenchuk,an
expertwithVTsIOM."Suchchangesinpopularviewsdonotcomeoutoftheblue."

RussianshavebeenmentallydistancingthemselvesfromtheWesternmodeloflifefor
sometime.ButtheUkrainiancrisisbroughtforthaflurryofreactions,includingsolidarity
withRussian-speaking"compatriots"suchasCrimeansandeasternUkrainians,thesense
thatahostileWestisworkingtosurroundRussiaandthwartitsregionalinterests,and
vagueryearningsforadeepersenseofnationalpurpose.

"WhateverishappeninginmodernRussiaisaprocess,notanaccident,anditcanbe
expectedtounfoldfurther,"saysMs.Kamenchuk.

TheKremlinhasworkedhardtoshapetheseperceptionsandharnessthemtoensureits
ownpoliticalsurvival.Somebasicconceptsofthenewpatriotismhavebeeninitially
expressedbyPutin,thenamplifiedbythevaststatepropagandamachine,whichdominates
whatmostRussiansseeandhear.

Theyincludethenotionofthe"RussianWorld,"whosegeographyextendsbeyondRussia's
borderstoembracepeoplewhoselanguage,culture,andmindset-thoughnotnecessarily
ethnicity-areRussian,suchasCrimeans,Abkhazians,Transdnistrians,andquiteafew
otherfar-flunggroups.

TheassertionthatRussiahasaresponsibilitytoprotectsuchpopulations,andperhaps
gatherthembacktotheMotherland,hassetnervesjanglingaroundEasternEurope.
Another,alsooriginatingwithPutin,istheclaimthatliberals,gays,andother"Westernized"
Russiansrepresenta"fifthcolumn"thatthreatenstosubvertRussiansocietyfromwithin.

"ForRussianmassopinion,theappealtoforceisverypopular.Forceincreasesrespect,"
saysAlexeiGrazhdankin,deputydirectoroftheLevadaCenter."Russianseasilyaccept
thattheWest'santagonismtowardourcountryisbasedonpurehostility.Evenifliving
standardsareworsening,theydon'tdoubttheofficialexplanationthatit'sdueto'enemy
action'andnotourownpolicies.Basically,Russianshavealwayswantedtoliveinastrong
country,andtheyarepreparedtopayapriceforthat."

Thelimitsofpatrioticsentiments

ButwhileRussiansmaybemorepatrioticthaneverintheirhearts,mosthaveyetto
expressthatpatriotismthroughaction.AttemptstoconvinceRussianstoactuallyjoin
patrioticorganizationsandstagehuge,Soviet-stylepro-Kremlinstreetdemonstrations,
havenotproventobesosuccessful.

NikolaiStarikovisawriterandorganizeroftheapparentlyindependentAnti-Maidan
movement,whichseekstoraisepatrioticconsciousnessandactivelyopposeanysignof
Ukrainian-style,pro-democracyrevolutioninRussia.

HepresidedoverasmalldemonstrationofhissupportersoutsidetheUSembassy,ona
blusteryAprilafternooninMoscow.About50protesters,mainlyuniversitystudents,heldup
bannersdecryingNATOexpansionand"USinterference"inUkraine.

"OurAmericanpartnershaveunleashedawarinsidetheRussianWorldandatRussia's
frontiers.TheydonotconcealtheirplanstochangetheregimeinRussia,"hesays.

ButmostMuscovites,hurryingbyinthelatewintersnowstorm,seemedcompletely
oblivious.Itwasatinyturnout-thoughtheAnti-MaidanmovementdebutedinFebruarywith
amarchofabout35,000supportersthroughdowntownMoscow-andtheentiregroup
foldedtheirbannersandhurriedawayafterabout15minutes.

"It'sdifficulttoorganizepeople,sothattheygettogether"Mr.Starikovlaments."Public
opinionischangeable."

Infact,theKremlindirectlysponsoredseveralyouthmovementstoopposeanydomestic
pro-democracyrevoltfollowingthe2004"OrangeRevolution"inUkraine,includingNashi
andtheYoungGuard,butdespitetheinfusionofconsiderableofficialresources,those
attemptspeteredoutafterafewyearsleavinglittletracebehind.

AmassiveRedSquarerallyinMarchtocommemoratetheannexationofCrimea,ledby
Putinpersonallyandthemed"WeAreTogether!",wasslightlymarredbysocialmedia
postingsshowinghundredsofparticipants,mainlyyoungpeople,lininguplatertoreceive
theirpayouts.

'Atimeofgreatopportunity'?

"Ofthetwopillarsofthecurrentnationalistconsensus,oneistransient.Thatisthe
extremelybroadsupportforPutin,butPutinwillnotbeforever,right?"saysMs.Lipman.
"Theotheristoonegative.Anti-Westernsentimentmaybedeepandgenuine,butbeing
anti-Westerndoesnothingtohelpshapeasenseofwhoweare."

Melikhov,thebusinessman,hasatentativeanswertothat.

"Weshouldusethissituation,andallthisenergy,"hesays."I'veneverseenatimewhen
peoplefeltsoconsolidatedandreadytobeconstructive.Forme,patriotismmeanstogo
outandbuildsomething,improvemybusiness,helpotherstostartsomething.Thiscould
beatimeofgreatopportunityforourcountry,andourselves."

[returntoContents]

#15
http://warontherocks.com
December23,2015
TheSevenDeadlySinsofRussiaAnalysis
ByMichaelKofman
MichaelKofmanisanAnalystattheCNACorporationandaFellowattheWilsonCenter's
KennanInstitute.PreviouslyheservedasProgramManageratNationalDefenseUniversity.
Theviewsexpressedherearehisown.

Astheclockcountsdowntotheendofanothertumultuousanddifficultyearofdealingwith
Russia,thenaturalinstinctistolookbackonthebattlesandsurprisesof2015withaneye
tomakingpredictionsforthecomingyear.Thereismaterialaplenty:thebattleof
Debaltseve,Moscow'soperationsinSyria,acrisiswithTurkeythatstillburnsbright.Anew
yearoffersnewopportunitiesforprognostication:WherewillRussiastrikenext?Whatis
Putinthinking?Whatarethelikelyflashpointsof2016?Insteadofthistraditionalexercise,
Russiaexpertsshouldreflectonayearofdiscussions,briefings,roundtables,merciless
PowerPointdecksabouthybridwar,andoccasionalspatsinthevirtualpagesofoutletslike
WarontheRocks.Whatarethenaggingquestions,questionableassumptions,and
unknownsthatbesettheanalyticalandpolicymakingcommunity?

ExpertsandpolicymakerswhodealwithRussiaarelivinginahigh-tempoenvironment,
keepingpacewithmilitaryinterventions,crises,andthefrequenttwistsinbilateralrelations.
However,inanysuchendeavor,itispossibletolearnlessonsthatarenottrue.Thisismy
ownattemptatpresentingalistofquestionablebitsofanalysisandassumptionsthatexist
withinthecommunity.Indoingso,Ihopetopushpeopletocriticallyexaminehowtheylook
atRussia.Whydowesaysomeofthesethings,andmoreimportantlywhydowethink
them?

1.TheRussianGovernmentisBrittle.Orisit?

PresentingVladimirPutin'sregimeasbrittleisoftenanalyticalshorthandforarguingthathis
regimeisdangerousinthenearterm,butequallylikelytoimplodeinshortorder,with
Russiadescendingintoturmoilandinstability.Indeed,Moscowhasaccumulatedsomany
domesticandforeignpolicyproblemsthatitwouldmakethisalogicalassessmentwereit
notforthepoortrackrecordofsuchpredictions.Witheachnewoutbreakinwhathas
becomeanalmostroutineseriesofpolitical,economic,orforeignpolicycrises,asegment
oftheRussia-watchercommunityinvariablybeginstomakepredictionsofPutin'simminent
demise.Unfortunately,thescienceofpredictingregimechangeseemstolagsignificantly
behindastrology.WeshouldrememberthatfewpredictedtheSovietUnion'srapiddemise,
thestartoftheArabSpring,oranticipatedtherapidfallofVictorYanukovichinUkraine
followingthestartoftheMaidan.

Therearetwoongoingcasestudiesonthemeritofsuchpredictions.ThefirstisPakistan,a
countrythatbythesametheoryshouldhavecollapsedlongagoundertheweightofits
manyproblems.ThesecondisNorthKorea,whichsoldiersondespitedecadesof
predictionsandestimatesoftheregime'simminentimplosion.AsformerSecretaryof
DefenseRobertGatesremarkedonourabilitytopredictthenatureandlocationofthenext
conflict,"ourrecordhasbeenperfect"giventhat"we'veneveroncegottenitright."The
sameshouldbesaidofourabilitytojudgeregimebrittleness.Thepointisnotthatneo-
Kremlinologyorassessmentsofpoliticalstabilityareawasteoftime,butthatthisisa
singlelayerofanalysisthatshouldbetakenwithahealthydoseofskepticism.

UndoubtedlythosewhoregularlypredictPutin'sdownfallwillonedaybevindicated,butfor
planningandanalyticalpurposes,ourexpectationsshouldbetempered.Thenexttestof
politicalbrittlenesscomesin2018whenwewillseehowreadyandwillingtheRussian
publicistoacceptPutin'sautomaticre-election.Nobodyknowswhatthestateofthe
economy,currencyvaluation,foreignexchangereserves,oilprices,orinternationalposition
ofRussiawillbethatyear.

2.TheUnitedStateshasaPutinProblem,notaRussiaProblem.OrDoesit?

Theindividualsinpowermatter,andanotherRussianleadermaynothavechosentoannex
CrimeaorinvadeUkraineinresponsetotheMaidan'svictory.Thatbeingsaid,thelingering
debateonwhethertheUnitedStateshasaPutinproblemoraRussiaproblemisan
unsettledone.IfoneassumesthattherealproblemisPutin'sregime,howeverlongitmight
last,thenthenaturalcourseofactionistoavoidanybargainswithRussia,cauterizethe
damagetothebilateralrelationshipandwaitforanotherleader.Mypersonalviewisthat
whoeversucceedsVladimirPutinwillnotprovetobeallthatdifferent,andwilllikelyfollowa
similarpolicypath.
RussianhistorysuggeststhatPutinisanythingbutanaberrationinleadership,pursuing
securitydilemmasinthesamemannerofmanypreviousoccupantsoftheKremlin.Seeing
Russia'ssecurityspaceasazero-sumgameandsecuringitbylimitingthesovereigntyof
itsneighborsisalmostcanonforRussianforeignpolicy(asitwasforSovietpolicy).We
shouldaskifPutin'sforeignpolicyisfundamentallysodifferentfromthatofBorisYeltsin,
Russia'sfirstdemocraticleader,orifRussiawassimplytooweakduringYeltsin'sruleto
challengethepost-ColdWarsecurityarrangementsinEurope.Inearly2014,Henry
KissingerwarnedWashingtonnottofixateonPutinwhenhewrotethat"FortheWest,the
demonizationofVladimirPutinisnotapolicy,itisanalibifortheabsenceofone."

YeltsintoobelievedintheapplicationofforcetoachievedesiredpoliticalendsinRussiaand
onitsperiphery.ExamplesarefoundamongRussianinterventionsinTransnistriaand
Tajikistanin1992andAbkhaziain1993,theuseoftankstosuppressaconstitutionalcrisis
inMoscow,theFirstChechenWarin1994-96,andtheRussianparatrooperdeploymentto
seizePristinaInternationalAirportin1999aheadofNATO'sdeploymentinKosovo.In
retrospect,thatadministrationwasnotshortonmilitarygambits,complaintsaboutNATO
expansion,orgripeswithU.S.militaryinterventions.ThecharacterofYeltsin'sgovernment
wasquitedifferentfromPutin'sregime,butarguablyitwasunderhisleadershipinthe
1990sthatRussiabeganandendeditsbriefflirtationwithdemocracy.Intruth,wehave
Yeltsin'spresidencytothankforPutin.

Putin'sviewoftheworldmayhaveevolvedduringhisrule,butthereislittleevidencethat
weshouldexpecthissuccessortotraveladifferentpath.Thusfar,thereisnothingto
suggestthatthenextRussianleader,whenfacedwithasimilarinternationalandregional
environmentwillnotattempttoengagetheWest,leavedisappointedandreverttothe
ruthlesspursuitofRussiannationalinterest.Anotherquestionseldomraisediswhether
U.S.policytowardsRussiawouldtrulychangeifitstroublesomeleaderweretodisappear
tomorrow.

3.MoscowCannotKeepThisUp.OrCanit?

CurrentdiscourseonRussia'seconomicfrailtyfoldsintothebroaderdiscussionon
whetherornotMoscowcansustainthecurrentstateofconfrontation.Inotherwords,how
longcanMoscowkeepthisup?TheunderlyingquestioniswhetherRussiawillceasebeing
aprobleminthenear-tomid-termbysuccumbingtoitseconomicwoes.Thenarrativethat
RussiawillrunoutofmoneyisprevalentintheWest,eventhoughMoscow'sforeign
reserveshavebothstabilizedandshownamodestreboundinrecentmonths.Thebigger
questioniswhydowetalkaboutRussiaasthoughitwasabankoracompany?Did
Russiagooutofbusinessafterthe1998default?

WhatistheactualconnectionbetweenWesternsecurityconsiderationsvis-a-visRussia,
itsforeignandnationalsecuritypolicy,andtheamountofmoneyithasonhand?Putin
announcedambitiousmilitaryreformsin2009,whenthepriceofoilfellto$35perbarrel.
RussiainvadedUkraineandannexedCrimeain2014eventhoughtheRussianeconomy
wasclearlyenteringarecessioninlate2013.Lookingfurtherback,Russianspersevered
throughthefinancialdefaultandcurrencycrisisof1998,manygoingthebetterpartofa
yearwithoutsalaries.PutinwasanointedasYeltsin'ssuccessorfollowingthiseconomic
carnage,andintheaftermathlaunchedtheSecondChechenWarin1999,aprolonged
conventionalandcounterinsurgencycampaign.

Thisdiscussionbegsamoreessentialquestionastowhetherornottheeconomyhasever
beenafoundationofRussianpowerintheinternationalsystem.InapreviousarticleforWar
ontheRocks,IarguedthatRussiahasoftenappearedtobethesickmanofEurope,
technologicallybackwards,withalacklustereconomy,andapoliticalsystemthat
consistentlylagsbehindtheneedsofitssociety.Thatbeingsaid,despiteWesternfearsto
thecontrary,theSovietUnionwasneverasuperpowerbyvirtueofbeingaserious
economiccompetitortotheUnitedStates,letalonetheWest,atbestattaining57percentof
America'sGNPinthelate1960sbeforefallingbehind.

Today,plentyofseniorU.S.officialsconsiderRussiatobeastrategicthreatandaserious
opponenttoNATOeventhoughitsGDPisbarelyatenthofAmerica's.Inarecentinterview
discussingRussia,DeputyDefenseSecretaryRobertWorkappliedMearsheimer's
definitionofagreatpowertoMoscow,highlightingthereturnofgreatpowerpoliticsinthe
internationalsystem.Granted,hesaidthiswasanarrowlens,butiftheUnitedStates
considersRussiatobeagreatpower(orregionalpowerwithabignucleararsenal)when
itseconomyrepresentsamere3.3percentofglobalGDP,thentheconnectionbetween
economicfundamentalsofpowerandRussia'spositionintheinternationalsystemmerits
furtherdiscussion.

4.RussiaCannotSustainMilitaryOperations.OrCanit?

FollowingcloselythediscussionofeconomicweaknessisageneralsentimentthatRussia
isunabletosustainmilitaryoperationsduetofinancialorforceconstraints.Goingbackto
early2015,thenotionthatRussia'sarmedforcesaretieddownor"stuck"inUkraineseems
tohavedissipated.Themeritofsuchestimateswascastintodoubtwhen,inSeptemberof
thisyear,RussiawassimultaneouslysustainingitsdeploymentinUkraine,conductingthe
expensivestrategicexerciseCenter2015,anddeployinganexpeditionaryoperationto
Syria.Itoowaswronginarguingthatlogisticalandfinancialconstraintswouldlimit
Moscow'sinvolvementinSyriagivenitslackofassetstosustainexpeditionaryoperations.

Muchtomyownsurprise,RussiasurgedsealiftbyreflaggingTurkishcommercialshipsto
supportitsincreasingtrooppresenceandbaseexpansions.ForMoscow,necessityisthe
motherofinvention,whereasfortheUnitedStatesitisusuallythemotherofprocurement.
Russiaalsofoundplentyoffundingtotestexpensivelandattackcruisemissilesofalmost
everyvariety.Inarecentpressconference,Putinshowednosignsthateconomic
constraintswouldimpactmilitaryoperations.Instead,itseemsRussiacansustainthisand
allotherlinesofeffortforatleastafewyears.At4.2percentofGDP,or3.3trillionrubles,
Russia'sdefensebudgetisthehighestithasbeensincethecollapseoftheSovietUnion.

Toooftenwetradeinouranalyticalexpertiseforanaccountant'sglasses,asthoughwe
couldcounttheRussianMinistryofDefense'smoneyoritsavailabletroopsbetterthanit
can.Ontheissueofsustainmentofmilitaryoperationsweneedadoseofanalytical
humility.

5.RussiaisStillaPowerinDecline.Orisit?

IfundamentallybelievethatRussiaisapowerinstructuraldecline,butincreasinglyI
wonderabouttherelevanceofthatassessment.Itseemswitheachyearwecaninferless
andlessfromsuchastatement.CelesteWallanderandEugeneRumer,twolongtime
RussiaexpertswhomIholdinthehighestregard,oncewrote:

"Despiteseveralyearsofeconomicgrowthandanewdynamicleader,Russiaremainsa
powerindecline.Neitheritsrecenteconomicsuccessnoritsvigorousleadershipis
sufficienttomakeupforthelong-termlossesthecountryhassufferedortocompensatefor
thecontemporaryshortcomingsthatbeliekeyelementsofRussianpower."

TheonlyproblemwiththisremarkablepieceinTheWashingtonQuarterlyisthatitwas
publishedinlate2003.Roughlyadecadelater,PresidentObamasimilarlyopinedthat
Russiaisa"regionalpower"actingoutof"weakness."ManyofRussia'sunderlying
weaknesseswereastruethenastheyarenow,butifRussiaisdeclining,itisdoingsovery
slowly,anditsleadershipdoesnotacceptsuchapredestinedfate.Asimprobableasitmay
be,absentasuddenRussiancollapse,atsomepointwemaybeforcedtoadmitthat
Russiaisdecliningsoslowlythecountrymightjustbemuddlingthrough.

6.DemographyWillDetermineRussia'sFate.OrWillit?

Russia'sdemographicproblemsarecommonlyreferencedasoneofthedriversofits
supposedlyassuredstructuraldecline.Analystsoftenmentiondemographytoeitherblithely
supportthenotionthatRussiawillsimplyceasetobeaproblemfortheWestinthelong
term,orworriedlyspeculatethatthecountrywillbecomedangerouslyunstable.Butwhat
mightRussia'sdemographicstrulydetermine?WillRussiasomehowbelessofastrategic
threatoraconcernfortheUnitedStatesifithasasmallerpopulation?Itisalmostcertain
thatRussiawillhaveenoughmanpowertomaintain1,550strategicnuclearweapons,along
withaconventionalforcetoovermatchanyofitsneighbors,saveChina.Perhaps
counterintuitively,intheshortterm,Russia'sarmedforceshavesteadilyincreasedinsize
fromroughly667,000-700,000in2012to900,000today.

Whenconsideringlong-termalternativefuturesitisworthnotingthatRussia'seconomy
andnationalbudgetisinexorablydependentonenergyandresourceextraction.Theseare
industriesthatarenotlabor-intensive.Atthesametime,Russiaisthebeneficiaryofalarge
laborinfluxfromformerSovietRepublics,oftenmakingitthethird-orsecond-highest
recipientofmigrantsintheworld.CanRussianationalizesuchlaboratthecostofinternal
socialcohesion?Howmuchwillitsgovernmentbudgettrulysufferfollowingalaborforce
contraction?Isitevenfairtoassumethatwarfareorsimilarstatetaskswillremain
manpower-intensive30yearsfromnow?AreRussia'sdemographicproblems
fundamentallydifferentfromthoseofotherdevelopedstates,includingmanyU.S.allies?It
strikesmethatRussia'sdemographicdeclineismoreofanopen-endedquestionthana
definitivestatementonthefutureofthecountry.

7.ForPutin,It'sAllAboutRegimeSurvival.Orisit?

Moscow'sannexationofCrimea,invasionofUkraine,andlaunchofoperationsinSyriaare
sometimesexplainedasthethroesofafallingpoliticalsystemengagedina"survival
project."Theunderlyingtheoryunifyingtheseactionsisregimesurvival,brilliantlyadvocated
byLiliaShevtsovainanumberofarticlesandop-eds.Theproblemwiththisapproachis
thatregimesurvivalcircularlyexplainseverythingandabsolutelynothingatthesametime:
Thereisnopoliticalregimeonearththatisnotinterestedinitssurvival.Regimesurvivalisa
constantmotivationformany,ifnotall,politicalsystemsandpoliticians.Itissofungiblean
analyticalapproachthatitlendsitselfusefultoexplaininganyandallpolicychoicesby
Putin.

Atitscore,thisargumentarbitrarilytakesthedomesticpoliticaloutcomesofMoscow's
actions,suchashighapprovalratingsathome,oraresurgentsenseofnationalism,and
movesthembackintimetobecometheprimaryobjectivesofforeignandnationalsecurity
policy.Thatcouldbetrue,butitseemsimpossibletoproveordisprove.Regimesurvival
maynotbeanincorrectexplanationofMoscow'smotives,butitiscertainlyincompleteas
ananalysisoftherealsourcesofRussiandecision-making.

RussiaAnalysisinPerspective

InmyownnarrowlaneofRussianmilitaryanalysis,thereisalwaysroomforamore
balanced,informed,andnuancedunderstandingofRussia.Perhapsthegreatestwoeof
discussionsonRussianmilitary,strategy,anddecision-making(otherthandebateson
hybridwarfare)istheconstantseesawbetweentwoextremes.Toooften,weareengaged
inanasininedebateastowhetherRussia'smilitaryisfivefeettallor12feettall.
Assessmentstendtotrackmorecloselywithwhereonesitsinthepolicymakingornational
securityestablishment,versuswheretheRussianmilitaryactuallyis,andwhatitcando.
HereIbelievethestartingpointshouldalwaysbeBismarck'sobservationthat"Russiais
neverasstrongasshelooksnorasweakasshelooks."Whenitcomestodecision-
makinganalysis,Putinisregularlycastinstarktermsaseitherabrilliantstrategist,
outfoxingtheWestateveryturn,orcompletelyincompetentwithoutanynotionofwhathe
willdonext.

PerchancethebroadestandmostvexingquestionforU.S.decision-makersandexperts
todayisthis:HowdowedeterRussia?Itisasvagueasitisrecurrent.Theshortansweris
thattheUnitedStatesdoesdeterRussia,whichiswhywe'reallstillhere70yearsafter
nuclearweaponswerefirstused.Amoreanalyticallyinteresting-andpoliticallyvaluable-
questionwouldbehowtheUnitedStatesshouldmanagegreat-powercompetitioninthe
internationalsystemandkeepconfrontationwithRussiafromescalatingintowar.Ifcrises
areinevitableamongthemajorplayers,anditseemstheyare,thenmanagingescalation
dynamicsisparamount.Whenfacedwithaproblem,bureaucracieshaveapredilectionfor
pursuingactivityandconfusingitforachievement,toparaphraseFareedZakaria.Tobetter
structureapolicyorastrategytowardsRussiaweshouldconfrontourownunderlying
assumptionsandthemeritsofprevailingnarratives,andmorerigorouslyseektofillexisting
gapsinanalysis.

[returntoContents]

#16
TheNationalInterest
December14,2015
Putin'sPopularity,Explained
ByMatthewDalSanto
MatthewDalSantoisaDanishResearchCouncilpost-doctoralfellowattheSaxoInstitute,
UniversityofCopenhagen,whereheisleadingaprojectonhistoryandidentityinmodern
Russia.ThisarticlewasoriginallypublishedontheInterpreter.
Ifnothingelse,VladimirPutinisagreatpoliticalsurvivor.Whenprotestsbrokeoutin
Moscowfouryearsagoagainsthisreturntothepresidency,manyintheWestwrotehimoff
(awidelycitedworkproposedtotellHowRussiaFellinandOutofLovewithVladimir
Putin).However,onDecember3Putindeliveredyetanotherannual'StateoftheNation'
addressasPresidentofRussia.Rarelyhashebeensopopular.

Eventoday,Westerncommentatorsoftengivetheimpressionthatthey've'seenthefuture
andthefutureisnotPutin.'ButsurveysbyRussia'sindependentLevadaCentreprovide
littleevidenceofabrewingpeople'srebellion.Onthecontrary,theKremlinisoneofonly
threeinstitutionsthatmoreRussianstrustthandistrust(thearmyisat64percent,andthe
Churchandotherreligiousorganizationsareat53percent).Fully80percentof
respondentssaidthey'completelytrust'Putin.
Howshouldthisbeunderstood?

MainstreamWesternmediausuallycastPutin'spopularityastheresultofRussians'heavy
relianceongovernment-controlledtelevision,i.e.'brain-washing.'Butsuchaone-sidedview
maymisrepresenttherelationshipbetweenpowerandpublicopinion.Tellingly,only34
percentofRussianssaytheytrustthemedia.

The'brain-washing'theoryalsomisseswhatispossiblythemostsignificantfeatureof
modernRussia:forthefirsttimesincethe1991collapseoftheSovietUnion(ifnotthe1917
revolution)governmentpoliciesreflecttheattitudesandopinionsoftheconservative
majorityofRussiansratherthanaWesternizing,neo-liberal(orMarxist)elite.

Since1996,theLevadaCentrehasbeenaskingRussianswhattheywantoftheir
presidents.Theirexpectationshavechangedlittle.In2012(thatis,evenbeforetheoutbreak
oftheUkrainecrisis),Russians'topfourprioritieswere:restoringRussia'sgreat-power
status(57percentversus54percentin1996)lawandorder(52percentversus58
percent)afairerdistributionofthenationalwealth(49percentversus37percent)and
increasingthestate'sroleintheeconomy(37percent,unchanged).

SuchattitudesreflectcontinuingnostalgiaforelementsoftheSovietsystemand
dissatisfactionwiththeWesternizingpathfollowedaftertheUSSR'scollapse.In2012,only
aminority(16percent,upfrom13percentin1996)believedRussiashouldcontinueto
pursuetheliberalreformsoftheYeltsineraandevenfewer(5percentdownfrom6percent)
thoughtconvergencewiththeWestsomethingtobedesired.

Today,however,70percentofRussianssaythey'reproudoftheircountry,whereasless
thanhalfdidsoadecadeago.Significantly,since2014,68percentofRussiansbelieve
theircountrytohaveregainedgreatpowerstatus.

Overwhelmingsupportfor'buyingRussian'-aboveall,whenitcomestogroceries(91
percent)-confirmsconsensusaroundimportsubstitution(aself-imposedresponseto
Westernsanctions)asalongoverduehelpinghandtoRussianindustryand,especially,
farms.

Ofcourse,thiscoincidenceofgovernmentpoliciesandpublicopiniondoesn'tmakeRussia
ademocracy.Butsuchpollsfrequentlyfunctionasdemocracy'sproxyintheWest,sowhy
notinRussia?

Themainpointis,however,thatRussia's'conservativeturn'sincePutin'sreturntothe
KremlininMarch2012-widelydeploredintheWestasacreepingauthoritarianismwith
rootsonlyinthewilesofPutin'smind-maybeclosertotheworldviewofRussia's
conservativeandpatrioticmajoritythanmostWesterngovernmentswouldcaretoadmit.

Inforeignandeconomicpolicy,Russia'spost-Sovietgovernmentmayneverhavecleaved
asclosetotheviewsofthemajorityasitdoesnow.That'stheviewofIgorOkunev,avice-
deanattheMoscowStateInstituteofInternationalRelations,whomIspokewithrecentlyin
Moscow.

"Historically,theRussiangovernmenthasalwaysbeenmoreliberalthantheRussian
population.UnlikeGorbachevandYeltsin,whatIthinkPutinhasdecidedtodoisacceptthis
anduseitasthebasisforhissupport.That'sbeenhisstrategysincetheprotestsof2011.
Thatwaswhenhedecidedtoabandontheliberalminorityandembracetheconservative
majority."
MikhailRemizov,directorofRussia'sInstituteofNationalStrategy,sharesthisview,saying
inarecentinterview:"Russiandemocracymustbydefinitionbeconservative,populist,
nationalistandprotectionist."Until2012,hesaid,theconservatives"whoreallyenjoythe
sympathiesofthemajorityofthenationoccupiedtheplaceofanopposition.Realpower
remainedinthehandsoftheneo-liberalelitethathadrunthecountrysincethe1990."

Thishasnowchanged."Putinisfalselypresentedasanationalist,"saidRemizov."Ina
Russiancontext,he'sasovereigntist.Butingeneral,theagendaoftheKremlintodayis
formedbytheoppositionofthe2000s:theconservative,patrioticmajority."

YetWesterngovernmentsoftentreatRussia'sminorityliberaloppositionastheavant-garde
ofahiddenliberalmajority.ToDmitriTrenin,directoroftheCarnegieMoscowCentre,
however,thisisbettingonthewronghorse."Thisisn'tjustaboutPutin,"hetoldagroupI
waswithinMoscow."It'saboutthenatureofsocietyasawhole.Putinhasbeenabletorule
thiscountryinanauthoritarianwaywiththeconsentofthegoverned."Theimaginedliberal
majoritylookingtotheWestforemancipationdoesn'texist.Russianliberals,hesaid,"have
thesameproblemtherevolutionarieshavealwayshadinRussia:theylookdownonthe
restofthecountryasdupes."

ButTreninisjustaspessimisticabouttheabilityofRussia'spresentrulerstoaddressthe
country'sunderlyingproblems."Wewillhavetoexpectsomesortofupheaval.Thedams
willhavetobebrokensomehow."

Forallhispopularity,then,hasPutinreturnedRussiatoitspre-revolutionaryimpasse?

Intsaristtimes,abourgeois,liberaleliteeagertoimitateWesternEuropesocially,politically
andeconomicallyclashedwiththeconservativeandcollectivistworldviewofanOrthodox
peasantry(andtheireducatedSlavophilepatrons,mostfamouslyDostoyevsky)unwillingto
seeRussiarenounceitsdistinctiveways.

Betweenthem,theImperialgovernmentarbitratedham-fistedlyuntil,in1917,theFirst
WorldWarsweptitaway,andadisciplinedbandofrevolutionariesseizedpowerinthe
nameofadifferentWesternideology,Marxism.

SomethinkrevolutionwillbeRussia'sfateagain.Others(notablyChathamHouseexpert
RichardSakwa)believeRussia'spathtodemocracyliesinmodifyingthesystemthatPutin
hascreated.Indeed,thecountry'sveryconsensusbehinditspresidentcouldmeanthatthe
nextstepinsucha'democraticevolution'iscloserthanwethink."Thiscouldbeanideal
momentforPutintoexperimentwithpoliticalcompetition,"saysRemizov,"precisely
becauseofthestrengthofhisposition."

Allthesame,Westerngovernmentsshouldn'thavetoomanyillusions.IfRussians'present
sentimentsareanythingtogoby,thecatch-22ofRussiandemocracy,whenitarrives,may
bethatitlooksratherlikePutin'sRussia.

[returntoContents]

#17
FinancialTimes
June1,2015
Europe'sproblemiswithRussia,notPutin
Moscowisnotarisingrevolutionaryforcebutoneseekingtorestorepower
ByThomasGraham
ThewriterisaformerseniordirectorforRussiaontheUSNationalSecurityCouncilstaff

ThewestactsasifithadaVladimirPutinproblem.InfactithasaRussiaproblem.The
RussianpresidentstandswithinalongtraditionofRussianthinking.Hisdeparturewouldfix
nothing.Anyplausiblesuccessorwouldpursueasimilarcourse,ifperhapswithalittleless
machismo.

TheRussiaproblemisnotnew.Itemerged200yearsago,attheendoftheNapoleonic
period,withtheopeningupofwhatwewouldtodaycallavaluesgap.Inthe19thcentury
RussiamaintainedanautocraticregimeasEuropemovedtowardsliberaldemocracy.

YetRussiaremainedagreatpower,essentialtoEuropeansecurity.HowtoprotectEurope
inthepresenceofapowerfulstatethatisalieninworldview?Thatwastheproblemthen,as
now.

EuropeanstatesseeksecurityinbalanceRussiaseeksitinstrategicdepth.Thatview
growsoutofitslocationonthevast,nearlyfeaturelessgreatEurasianplain,acrosswhich
armieshavemovedwithease.

Historically,Russiahaspusheditsbordersoutward,asfarawayaspossiblefromits
heartland.Itdidnotstopwhenitreacheddefensiblephysicalborders,butonlywhenitran
intopowerfulcountervailingstates.Wherethewestsawimperialism,Moscowsawthe
erectionofdefences.

Overtime,resistancefromtheGermanicpowersinthewest,GreatBritainandthentheUS
inthesouth,andChinaandJapanintheeast,cametodefineRussia'szoneofsecurityas
northcentralEurasia,theformerSovietspace.

ForMoscow,statestherefaceachoicenotbetweenindependenceandRussian
domination,butbetweendominationbyRussiaorarival.Thatstruggle,
Moscowbelieves,isplayingoutinUkraine.

Alsooutofsecurityconcerns,RussiahasopposedthedominationofEuropebyasingle
powerandremainsuncomfortablewithgreaterEuropeanunity.Thereasoniseasyto
grasp:RussiacanbetheequalofGreatBritain,France,orGermany,butitcanneverbethe
equalofaunitedEurope,whichinpopulation,wealth,andpowerwoulddwarfitastheUS
doestoday.DrivingwedgesbetweenEuropeanstates,andbetweenEuropeandtheUS,
mightforestalltheemergenceofaseriousthreat.

Russia'sfearsareamplifiedbyasenseofvulnerability.Itseconomyisstagnating,its
technologyisnolongercutting-edge,andoutsideforces-China,thewestandradicalIslam
-arechallengingitintheformerSovietspace.Thetemptationistoacttoughtocoverupthe
doubtsby,forexample,flauntingnuclearcapabilities.

Aftermorethan20yearsofhopethatRussiacouldbebroughtintothewest-led
internationalorder,there-emergenceoftheRussiaproblemhasshockedthewest.Butthe
threatislimited.Thisisnotarisingrevolutionaryforcebutadecliningstateseekingto
restoreitspower.

Itcanbemanaged.OnewayistorevitalisetheEuropeanproject.Thatmeansdealing
vigorouslywiththeissuesfuellinganti-EUforces-thedemocraticdeficit,immigrationand
inequality.

Tobesure,stepssuchasaNatopresenceintheBalticsandrobustplanningforhybrid-war
contingenciesarenecessary,butthewestneedstoavoidover-militarisingitsresponseto
whatislargelyapoliticalchallenge.

Atthesametime,moreshouldbedonetohelpUkrainerepairitseconomyandbuilda
competentstateasabarriertoRussia'sassaultonEuropeannormsandunity.

Yetcontainmentwillnotworkinourglobalised,increasinglymultipolarworld,asitdidduring
thecoldwar.Thewestcannotcontainoneoftheworld'slargesteconomies,anditis
geopoliticalmalfeasancetoweakenundulyapowercriticaltotheequilibriumwehopeto
createoutoftoday'sturbulence,particularlyinAsia.

ThehardtruthisthatUkrainecannotberebuiltwithoutRussia.Itissimplytoorelianton
Russiaeconomically,andRussiahastoomanyleversofinfluenceinsideUkraine,foritto
beotherwise.Containmenthastobeleavenedwithaccommodation.Findingtheright
balanceisthechallenge.

[returntoContents]

#18
TheIndependent(UK)
May4,2015
Onceagain,theWestfailstounderstandRussia
Westernleadersarestayingawayfromthisyear'sVictoryDay,whichmournsthelossof
20millionRussianswhodiedtodefeatNaziGermany
ByMaryDejevsky
Oneofthecountry'smostrespectedcommentatorsonRussia,theEUandtheUS,Mary
Dejevskyhasworkedasaforeigncorrespondentallovertheworld,includingWashington,
ParisandMoscow.SheisnowthechiefeditorialwriterandacolumnistatTheIndependent
andregularlyappearsonradioandtelevision.SheisanHonoraryResearchFellowatthe
UniversityofBuckingham.

WhyareWesterncountriesbyandlargesoindulgentoftheanniversariesthatcontributeto
theirownnationhood,andsoinsensitivetowardsthoseofothers?
OnSaturday,PresidentVladimirPutinwilltakethesaluteatagrandmilitaryparadein
Moscow'sRedSquare.VictoryDay-9MayiswhenRussiacommemoratesitspartinthe
AlliedvictoryoverNaziGermany-isatoncethemostsolemnandovertlypatriotic
occasion.ItisoneofthefewpublicholidaystohavemadethetransitionfromtheSovietto
thepost-Sovietcalendarintact.

VictoryDaywasahighlightoftheyearIspentasanexchangestudentinVoronezh-acity
rarelymentionedwithouttheaccompanyingphrase"thelastfrontbeforeStalingrad".
Preparationstookweeks:placardswerepaintedbuntingandflagsadornedthestreets.It
wasahugehonourtobeartheuniversitystandard.Foodstocksintheshopsmiraculously
improved.

ReportingfromMoscowoveradecadelater,IrecallthebarrierspileduparoundRed
Square,theovernightarrivalofthetanksand,aboveall,thesuffocatingstenchoftheirfuel,
astheironmonsterswaitedtojointhetriumphalformation.TheVictoryDayparadewas
somethingtoclingto,evenastheSovietUnionnearedcollapse.

Thisyear'scommemorationwillbesecondtonone.Asthe70th,itisaround-number
anniversary.AswiththeplethoraofSecondWorldWaranniversariesbeingcommemorated
thisyear,thisisprobablythelasttimethattherewillbeanythinglikeaquorumofthosewho
actuallyparticipatedinorwitnessedtheseeventsabletoattend.

Then,ofcourse,thereisthetrickier,mostcontemporaryandspecificallyRussian,aspect.
ThisyearisanopportunityfortheKremlintodemonstratethatRussia,asagreatpower,is
back.TheadvanceofthedecadentWesthasbeenhaltedinUkraineandthesacred
territoryofCrimeahasbeenreturnedtothemotherland.

AllthisiswhyWesternleaders-whowenttoMoscowenmasseforVictoryDay's60th
anniversary-arestayingaway.TheydonotwishtoassociatewithPutin-certainlynotwhile
Ukraine'sveryexistenceasasovereignstateisunderthreat.Theyespeciallydonotwantto
appearataRussianmilitaryoccasion,whichcouldbeseenassignallingacceptanceofthe
eventsofthepast18months.

StrictlyspeakingthereisnoWesternboycott,andtherearedegreesofabsence.The
CzechpresidentwillgotoMoscow,butnotattendtheparade.AngelaMerkelwillarrivea
daylaterandlayawreath-anactthatmightanywayseemmoreappropriateforaGerman
Chancelloratawartimeanniversary.AsfortheUK,whoknowswhotheprimeministerwill
bebySaturday?Decliningtheinvitationwasexcusable,regardlessofUkraine.

Somemayseetheattendancelist,headedbytheChineseandIndianleaders-butnotby
NorthKorea'sKimJong-un,whohasjustcriedoff-followedbytheautocratsofCentral
Asia,asevidenceofwhereRussia'sforeignpolicyisnowheading.Maybe.Butthe
Kremlin'sresponsetotheWesternstay-awaysuggestsotherwise.Ithasbeenpeevish,but
alsoshotthroughwithincomprehension.ForRussians,whatishappeninginUkraineand
Russia'spartinthevictoryof1945arequalitativelyandquantitativelyquitedifferentthings.

Each9May,RussiadoesnotjustcelebratevictoryoverNaziGermanyitmournstheloss
ofmorethan20millionwardead,anditreconsecratestheideaofRussiansufferingtosave
Europe.InconversationwithRussiansinrecentweeks,Ihavehadtofieldastreamof
injuredquestionsalongthelinesof"hastheWesteverunderstoodRussia'ssacrifice?"
and:"WilltheWesteverappreciateit?"ThenotionthatUkraineisarealstumblingblock
hereisbeyondcomprehensionthestay-awayisratherseenasfurtherproofthatRussia
willnever,ever,beconsidered"oneofus".

Countrieskeepmemoriesalive,oftenunrealisticallyflatteringones,formanyreasons.Last
June,inarecognitionofthewartimealliance,Putinwascontroversiallyinvitedtojointhe
AlliedcommemorationoftheNormandylandings,atatimewhenRussia'sseizureof
Crimeawasevenfresherinthememorythanitisnow.Butthisofferedanopportunityfor
WesternleadersandforPutintospeaktheirminds,whilepreservingdignityoneitherside.
OneresultwasthefirstformalmeetingbetweenPutinandUkraine'snewlyelected
president-withoutwhichUkraine'ssituationmightbeevenworsethanitistoday.

TojoinPutinonthepodiumforSaturday'sparadewouldnotbepoliticbuttodineinthe
Kremlinortakepartinawreath-layingwouldsurelynotbeoutofplace.MostWesterners
mightnotfearanyresurgenceoffascisminUkraine,butdiscussionwithPutinandothers-
whosefathersfoughtonthatfrontandothers-couldaffordanunderstandingofwhymany
Russiansmight.Inrecentyears,theWesthasmissedoneopportunityafteranotherto
understandhowRussia'spastinfluencesitspresent.Andhereisanothergone.

[returntoContents]

#19
RussiaInsider
www.russia-insider.com
November2,2015
TwoCenturiesofRussianSurprises--WhyAreWeSurprised?
UnderestimatingRussiawillsurpriseyou
ByShellback
ShellbackisthepseudonymofsomeonewhostartedworkingforaNATOmilitarystructure
intheBrezhnevyears.

TheUSA/NATOhasbeensurprised-orisstunnedabetterword?-bytheRussian
operationinSyria.Thefactthatitintervenedthespeedwithwhichitdiditthesecrecywith
whichitdiditthenumbersofsortiesbeingflowntheaccuracyandeffectivenessofthe
strikes.ButespeciallybythediscoverythatinsignificantboatsintheCaspianSea-ofall
places-haveasurprisinglylongreach.McCain'sgasstationorObama'snegligibleRussia
couldn'tpossiblybeexpectedtodosuchthings.And,ifhalftherumorsaboutRussia's
"A2/ADbubble"aretrue,there'sanotherhugesurpriseaswell.

Russia,overitsmillenniumofhistory,hasbeenusuallysuccessfulinwar,andespeciallyso
whendefeatinginvaders.TheMongolswereeventuallyseenoff,theTeutonicKnightssent
home,thePolish-Lithuanianinvadersdrivenout,theSwedesdefeatedandNapoleonand
Hitlerwerefollowedhomebyavengingarmies.TheWestisonlyfaintlyawareofthisrecord:
ittendstorememberRussia'sraredefeatsliketheJapanesewarorWorldWarIand,when
Russia(ortheUSSR)wins,thecommonopinionintheWestisthatvictorywasreallyowed
tofactorslike"GeneralWinter"orendlessmanpower.Inshort,theWesternmemeisthat
doesn'treallywin,theothersideloses.

Thisis,toputitmildly,incorrect.DominicLieven'sbook"RussiaAgainstNapoleon"
destroysthememe.TheauthorestablishesthecasethattheEmperorAlexanderandhis
governmentforesawthatwarwithNapoleonwasinevitable,studiedhowNapoleonfought
andmadethenecessarypreparationstodefeathim.Anddefeathimtheydid.Fightingan
armyasbigastheonethatinvadedin1812ledbyasbrilliantacommanderasNapoleonis
nevergoingtobeeasyandAlexanderprobablydidn'tenvisageabattleasbloodyas
Borodino,soclosetoMoscow,tobeindecisive.I'msurenobodyplannedforMoscowtobe
occupiedandburned.But,evenso,Alexanderheldtohispurpose.HeknewthatNapoleon's
typicalcampaignwasaswiftbattlefieldvictory,followedbynegotiations,perhapsthelossof
afewbitsofterritory,arelativeortwobeingmadeintoaprince,andthenthegatheringof
thedefeatedpowerintotheFrenchcamp.Inshort,Napoleon'sexpectedheandAlexander
wouldmeetagainwhenAlexanderhadbeentaughtalesson:Russiawouldthenrejointhe
"continentalsystem"anditsnavywouldkeeptheRoyalNavyoutoftheBaltic.Something
limitedlikethat.ButAlexanderwasfightingadifferentwarandnevercametohim.Moscow
burnedandNapoleongaveupwaitingandwenthome.Certainly,"GeneralWinter"played
hispart,buttheFrenchretreatturnedintoaroutastheyweredrivenfasterandfasterbythe
menacingproximityoftherebuiltRussianArmy,harriedbywarmlydressedCossack
raiderswithendlessremountsandenragedpartisansrousedintothefirstGreatPatriotic
War.Thisfamousgraphtellsthestory:fourhundredthousandwentin,tenthousandcame
outandtheRussianarmyfollowedNapoleonallthewaybacktoParis.Lievenexplainsthe
planningandtheenormouslogisticsoperationwhichsustainedalargearmyallthe1500
milesfromMoscowtoParis.VeryfarindeedfromtheWesternstoryofmassesofmen
hurledatafreezingenemy.
Inshort:AlexanderunderstoodhowNapoleondidthingsandsurprisedhimwithproper
preparationandafullstrategy.This,Ibelieve,istheessenceofthe"Russianwayin
warfare".Knowandunderstandtheenemyandsurprisehim.Wehavejustseenthisagain
inSyria.And,forthatmatter,overandoveragainintheUkrainecrisiswherenothinghas
gonethewayNuland&Cointended.AndinOssetiain2008.

WhiletheFirstWorldWarwasadisasterforRussia,surpriseandintelligencewaspresent.
Germany'splantodealwithenemiesbotheastandwestassumedRussiawouldtakeso
longtomobilizethatthebulkoftheGermanArmycouldbesentwesttoknockFranceout-
asithaddonein1870-andreturnintimetomeettheRussians.TheRussians,who
perhapsknewthis,attackedearlyandthrewtheGermansintoconsternation.Theirattack,
however,wentwrong:theRussiancommanderswereincompetent,theGerman
commandersweren'tandtheGermansweresaved.Intelligenceandsurprisewerethere,
buttheexecutionwasbungled.Asecondintelligence/surprisewastheBrusilovOffensivein
1916(againsomethingnotmuchknownintheWest).Theattackwasnotablefortwo
innovationslateradoptedintheWesternfront:ashort,intense,accurateartillery
bombardmentimmediatelyfollowedupbyattacksofsmallspeciallytrainedshocktroops.
VerydifferentindeedfromthesynchronousSommeoffensiveonthewithitsprolonged
bombardmentandtheslowadvanceofthousandsofheavilyburdenedsoldiers.But,inthe
end,Russiawasoverwhelmedbythestrainsofthefirstindustrialwarandunderminedby
GermanandAustriansubterfugesandcollapsed.Intelligenceandsurpriseweren'tenough.

IntelligenceandsurprisereturnedintheSovietperiod.IntheFarEastwesawtheperfect
combinationofsurprisein1939withtheannihilationofaJapanesearmyatthebattleof
Khalkin-Golandintelligencein1941withRichardSorge'sdiscoverythatJapanwasturning
south.ThisintelligenceallowedStavkatotransferdivisions,thattheGermanshadnoidea
existed,toMoscowandsurprisethemwiththefirstSovietvictoryattheBattleofMoscow.
CertainlyHitlersurprisedStalinwithhisattack(althoughheshouldn'thavebecauseSoviet
intelligencepickedupmanywarningsigns)butthatappearstohavebeenthelastGerman
surpriseofthewar.FromthenonitwastheSovietswhoforesawGermanplansand
surprisedthemtimeandtimeagain-thecounterattackatStalingradandtheentireBattleof
KurskbeingtwoofthemostdramaticexamplesoftheSovietspreparingforwhattheir
intelligencetoldthemwascomingandachievingcompletesurprisewiththeircounter-
attack.Again,surpriseandintelligence,almostallofitontheSovietside.(Whichshould
makeonewonderwhatReinhardGehlen,headoftheGermanArmy'sSovietintelligence
sectionhadtoselltheAmericansin1945,shouldn'tit?)

Sothen,SyriaisjustthelatestexampleofsomethingthathasbeenpresentinRussianand
Sovietwar-fightingdoctrineforatleasttwocenturies.

Agoodpieceofadvice,then:ifyouarecontemplatingawar(evenanon-shootingwar)
againstRussiayou'dbetterassumethattheyhaveaprettygoodideaofwhatyouaredoing
butthatyouhaveverylittleideaofwhattheyaredoing.

It'smuchmorelikelythatyouwillbesurprisedthanyouwillsurprisethem.

LotsofpeopleinlotsofplacesoverlotsofyearshaveunderestimatedRussia.Mostof
themhaveregrettedit.

IsthereanythinginthelastcoupleofyearsintheWest'santi-Russiacampaignthatwould
causeanyonetothinkotherwise?

[returntoContents]

#20
Counterpunch.org
November13,2015
PerpetratorsHonoringTheirVictims,orAnIncomprehensibleLogicConcerningDonbas
"Terrorists"
ByHALYNAMOKRUSHYNA
HalynaMokrushynaiscurrentlyenrolledinthePhDprograminSociologyattheUniversityof
Ottawaandapart-timeprofessor.SheholdsadoctorateinlinguisticsandMAdegreein
communication.Heracademicinterestsinclude:transitionaljusticecollectivememory
ethnicstudiesdissentmovementinUkrainehistoryofUkrainesociologicalthought.Her
doctoralprojectdealswiththememoryofStalinistpurgesinUkraine.Inthesummerof
2013shetravelledtoLviv,Kyiv,KharkivandDonetsktoconductherfieldresearch.Sheis
currentlyworkingoncompletingherthesis.Shecanbereachedathalouwins@gmail.com.

AmonumenttotheinsurgentsandcivilianswhodiedinthewarwiththeUkrainianarmyin
2014-15wassolemnlyopenedonNovember4,2015inDebaltsevo,asmallcityonthe
territoryoftheDonetskPeople'sRepublic.Theceremonywaspresidedbytheleadersof
theDPR,theheadoftheDebaltsevocityadministrationanddeputiestotheDPR
legislature.Manyhundredsoflocalcitizenstookpart.

AlexanderZakharchenko,theheadoftheDPR,gaveanaddresstotheceremonyinwhich
hestatedthattheDonetskPeople'sRepublicshouldhonourthosewhodefendedwitharms
theircityandtheirchildren.AsolemnliturgywasservedbytheprovostoftheAlexander
NevskiOrthodoxChurchofDebaltsevo.Hestated,"Wearegatheredhere,ontheDayof
OurLadyofKazan,foraprayertohonourourdeadwarriorswhosacrificedtheirlivesfor
ourland."

Theplaqueonthemonumentreads:"Eternalmemorytothebrothersandsisterswhogave
theirlivesfortheliberationofDebaltsevofromUkrainianaggressors,2014-2015".Thenews
isreportedbytheDonetskNewsAgency(DAN).ItreferstoDebaltsevoasa"herocity"for
havingresistedan"occupation"byUkrainianaggressors,atitlereminiscentoftheSoviet
traditionofbestowingthetitleoncitiesthatbecamecentresofactivefightingagainstNazi
invadersduringWWII.

Thepro-UkraineinformationagencyOstroV,whichpublishesanalysisofeventsinDonetsk
andLuganskinRussianlanguage,publishedashortitemontheNovember4ceremony
whichwastakenfromDAN.OstroVcallsDANa"separatist"agency.TheitemonOstroV's
websitehasatellingtitle:"Theheightofcynicism!Ringleadersofthe"DPR"openedin
Debaltsevoamonumenttociviliansthattheythemselveskilledbrutally".Thentheagency
proceedstoexplainthatwhile"liberating"(itsownquotationmarks)Debaltsevofromthe
Ukrainianarmy,therebelsshelledthecitywithheavyweaponry,killingalargenumberof
civilians.

QuotingU.S.AmbassadortotheUnitedNationsSamanthaPower,theOstroVagency
explainsthatabout500corpsesofcivilianswerefoundinbasementsofDebaltsevo.The
victimsweresaidtobeseekingcoverfromtheshellingoftheir"liberators"(quotationmarks
bytheagency),thatisDPRforces.OstroVdoesnotsaywhenPowermadethisclaim,nor
onwhatoccasion.Italsoquotesherassayingthatcivilianswereriskingtheirlivesbyeither
hidinginbasementsorfleeingthecitybecauseroadswerealsoshelledbythe"terrorists"of
theDPR.OnewonderswhyOstroVdoesnotquoteUkrainiansourcesandinsteadrelieson
theUSrepresentativeforfindingoutwhatishappeninginUkraine.

TheshortOstroVshortarticlestatesthattheleaderswhospokeatthesolemnopeningof
theDebaltsevomonumentonNovember4"traditionallyshiftedtheresponsibilityfortheir
crimesontoUkraine".

"Themonument...islocatedinapublicpromenadeadjacenttotheoccupation'city
administration'ofDebaltsevo",informsOstroV.Again,quotesaroundthe"city
administration"andthequalification"occupation"clearlyshowtheagency'sinterpretationof
theDPRas"terrorists"whotookDebaltsevobyforceandholdnowallthecitizensas
hostages.NotonlydotheterroristsblametheUkrainianarmyfortheircrimes,they
purportedlyshelltheirownpositionsbecausetheydonotgiveadamnforthelivesof
civilians!Theseterroristsaresowickedandcynicalintheirperfiditythattheyevenerecta
monumenttotheirownvictims!

TheauthorsoftheOstroVwebsitereportdidnotbothertoexplainwhytheDPR
"ringleaders"wouldengageinsuchanactofcommemoration.Indeed,whydidtheystagea
commemoration?

Whenandwhereinhumanhistoryhaveperpetratorserectedmonumentstotheirvictims?
Thereareinnumerableinstancesofcommemorationofvictimsbytheirrelatives,social
groupsrepresentingthevictimizedstrataofthepopulation,orthestateclaimingto
representthem.ButIhaveneverheardofaninstancewhereanexecutionerwoulderecta
monumenttohisownvictims,goingsofarastocallthem"brothersandsisters"!Butthese
Russia-backedterroristsfromtheDPRaresoevilthattheircrueltyisinhumaneand
transcendsourcommonunderstandingofhumanmotivation.Orsoweareexpectedto
believe.
ThatistheonlyplausibleexplanationoftheDPRleaders'actfromtheOstroVpointofview.
Thepublicationdoesnotspellthisout,butitiseasilydiscerniblefromthewayinwhichit
presentedthenews.

TheaforementionedtitleoftheOstroVreportstrikesmeasyetanotherexampleofthe
dehumanizationofDonbasresidentsbytheUkrainiangovernmentandmuchofthe
country'smedia.Ianalyzedthisphenomenoninsomedetailinmypresentationatthe2015
annualconferenceoftheCanadianAssociationofSlavicStudiesandattheinaugural
conferenceinWinnipeginSeptember2015oftheGeopoliticalEconomyResearchGroup
(GERG)attheUniversityofManitobainWinnipeginSeptember2015.Youcanreadmy
presentationhereattheGERGconferencewebsite.

Pro-Western,"civilized"UkrainiansdenytheDPRinsurgentstheirhumanity.Itismade
crystalclearinUkrainianmediainterpretationswhoisthegoodandwhoisthebad.Pro-
WesternUkrainianswhoclaimtorespecthumanlifeandfreedomofopinioncannotaccept
anysuggestionthattheDPRleadersandthepopulationoftheDPRsincerelymourntheir
fellowcombatantsandcitizenswhodiedinthecivilwarinDonbas.Peopleonallsidesdied
fromtheshellingoftheUkrainianarmyand,yes,alsofromshellsfiredbyDPRforces.This
wasawarinwhichcasualtieswereunavoidable,tragicasthatwas.Butitisexceedingly
raretofindreportedinUkrainianmediathatthiscivilwarwasunleashedbyKyiv
governmentandbroughttotheDonbashomelandpreciselybecauseEuromaidanKyiv
couldnottoleratedissentingopinionthere.

OstroV'scoverageoftheopeningofamonumentinDebaltsevoisanexampleofsuch
blindnessandnon-respectoftheOther.ItcannotseethattheDPRisalegitimate
expressionofpoliticalself-determination,nota"terrorist"projectimposedonthepopulation
by"Russia-backedrebels".OstroVdoesnotmentionthatsome500peoplewerepresentat
theNovember4ceremonyinDebaltsevo,andthataftertheopeningofthenewmonument,
theprocessionthenwenttotheMemorialofEternalGloryconsecratedtothosewhodiedin
theGreatPatrioticWar.Onthatday,forthefirsttimeinmanyyears,theEternalFlamewas
relitthankstotheeffortsofthelocalauthorities.TheheadoftheDPR,Alexander
Zakharchenko,spokeandgavethankstotheveteransstillaliveandthosewhodiedfor
passingtothegenerationsthatfollowthemthespiritandstrengthwithwhichtheyfoughtin
theGreatPatrioticWar.

ThespeechbyZakharchenkoisbutoneofnumerousofficialproclamationsoftheDPR
whichtraceacontinuitybetweenthepresent-daycombatantsofDonbasandtheir
grandfathersandgreatgrandfatherswhodefeatedNaziGermanyintheGreatPatrioticWar.
AstheSovietarmyfought70yearsago,todaytheDPRarmyisfightingagainstUkrainian
extremenationalistswhowereNazialliesinthepastandwhonowwanttoinvadeDonbas
andtodestroyitshistoricmemory.Present-dayciviliansandinsurgentstowhosememory
themonumentinDebaltsevoisdedicateddiedforvictoryinthisfight.

Intoday'sMaidanUkraine,celebrationsoftheSovietvictoryinWWIIarefadingaway.Inthe
memorypoliticsofthenewEuromaidanUkraine,thenotionoftheGreatPatrioticWaris
increasinglycalledamyth.Andyet,this"myth"remainsafundamentalbuildingblockofthe
collectiveidentityofmillionsofUkrainiancitizens.TheheroismandpatriotismofSoviet
Ukrainiansoldiers,praisedinhistorymanualsandglorifiedinsong,isnowdissolvedintoan
interpretationofUkraineashavingbeencaughtbetweentwinevils-NaziGermanyandthe
Stalin-ledSovietUnion(readpresent-dayRussia).Newcommemorationritualshavebeing
createdinUkrainewhicharecopiedfromEuropeanhabitswithlittleornobearanceon
Ukrainianhistory.Thisyear,inadditiontomarkingMay9,traditionalVictoryDayinUkraine,
May8wasofficiallymarkedforthefirsttimeinUkraine'shistoryasadayofWW2memory
andreconciliation.

Idoubtverymuchthatthisnewcommemorationdatecanassistreconciliationforacountry
thatisdividednotonlybythememoryofthepastbutalsobydivergentvisionsofthefuture.
DonbasdoesnotwanttointegrateintoEurope,asmanyintherestofUkraineseemingly
want.Andforthatdissentingopinion,pro-EuropeanUkraineisdehumanizingDonbas.As
longastheUkrainianpoliticalandintellectualeliterefusetorecognizeDonetskandLugansk
residentsashumanbeingswithviewsandvaluesdifferentfromtheirownbutnoless
authentic,therewillbenopeaceinUkraine.

Notes:
(1)Debaltsevoisasmallcity,population25,000,intheeastoftheDonetskoblastof
Ukraine,neartheborderwiththeLuhanskoblast.Itisastrategicallyvitalroadandrailway
junction.ThecitybecamethelocationofveryheavyfightingbetweenUkrainianarmed
forcesandmilitiasandtheDPRinsurgencyinthesummerof2014.Ukrainesucceededin
capturingitforatime.InJanuaryof2015,afterUkrainehadrenewedamilitaryoffensive
againstDonetskandLugansk,itsforcesbecamevulnerableaftertheyhadoverextended
themselvesinandaroundDebaltsevo.AcounteroffensivebyDPRforcessucceededin
recapturingthecityonFebruary18,2015,destroyingtheoccupyingUkrainianforceswho
sufferedhundredsofcasualties.ThisfightbecameknownastheBattleofDebaltsevo.

(2).ItisstatedontheOstroVwebsitethatitisfundedbytheNationalEndowmentfor
Democracy,theMediaDevelopmentFundoftheUSEmbassytoUkraine,andthe
InternationalRenaissanceFoundation,whosefounderandsponsorisGeorgeSoros.Itis
partofthePolish-CanadianProgramofsupportfordemocracy,co-financedbythe
DepartmentofForeignAffairsofthePolishRepublicandtheDepartmentofForeignAffairs,
TradeandDevelopmentofCanada.

[returntoContents]

#21
FairObserver
www.fairobserver.com
December4,2015
IsEurope'sBufferZoneinUkraineKeepingitSafe?
BYOLENALENNONANDBRIANMILAKOVSKY
OlenaLennonisanadjunctprofessorofForeignPolicyandConflictResolutionatthe
UniversityofNewHaven.BrianMilakovskyworksonhumanitarianissuesineastern
Ukraine.HehasbeenlivingandworkinginRussiaandUkrainesince2009

UkrainemustprotectcivilianpopulationsintheDonbasregionandseekapoliticalsolution
totheconflict.

EuropeanandAmericanforeignpolicyeliteshavecometoregardthebrutalwarineastern
Ukrainealmostentirelythroughthelensofgeopolitics.Theterriblehumansufferingofthe
warremainsanunfocusedforegroundthattheygazethroughata"resurgentRussia,"
"Europeinthebalance,""challengestoworldorder."

Thedistortingeffectofthisdistancebecamevisibletotheauthorsofthisarticle,oneof
whomspentSeptember25rubbingelbowswithpolicymakersatthecongressionalforum,
andtheotherastheguestofayoungUkrainianfamilyonthefrontlinesofthisconflict.

MAINTAININGTHEILLUSION

TheforumbroughttogetherprominentUkrainian,EuropeanandAmericanpoliticiansand
activiststoadvocateforhumanitarian,economicand"yes,militaryaid"asUkrainegradually
recedesfromtheheadlines.Buttheywerematchedbynumerousspeakerswhocalledfor
areignitionoftheveryconflictthathasbroughtthatcrisison.TheystatedthatUkrainians
mustbearmedforthepreservationofEuropeanorder,because-asformerGeorgian
AmbassadorTemuriYakobashviliputitduringadiscussionattheforum-"theyaretheonly
oneswhoknowhowtofightRussians."

Lestanyonethinkthatareturntoarmedhostilitiesmightcomeattoohighacostforthe
alreadytraumatizedcountry,Ukrainewasremindedoverandoverthatthestakesarepan-
European,ifnotglobal.

"AsuccessfuldemocraticstruggleinUkrainewillhelprevivethedemocraticspiritinEurope
andtheUnitedStates,"saidCarlGershman,presidentoftheNationalEndowmentfor
Democracy."Ukrainecansucceed,andifitdoes,itwillnotjustbeatriumphforthe
Ukrainianpeople.ItwillalsomakepossibleaEuropethatiswholeandfree."Similarly,
GeneralWesleyClarkemphaticallystatedinhiskeynoteaddressthat"muchofmankind's
futureisbeingdecidedinUkraine"and"ifUkrainecompletesthistransitiontoWestern
democracy...there'snomorewarinEurope.Ever.Ever!"Nopressure.

Astonishingly,bellicosestatementslikethoseofYakobashviliandClarkreceivedcheersand
applausefromtheaudience.Whilethesestatementsmaysoundlikeacomplimenttothe
Ukrainianpeople,thispositionreducestheircountrytoabufferzone-aperpetualfrontline.
NeitherAmericannorEuropeanpoliticianscanaffordtotelltheirdomesticaudiencesthat
theyarenotdoingenoughtostoptheRussianaggression(especiallygivenitsrecent
involvementinSyria).Andsotoagreatextent,Ukraineisexpectedtobemoreaggressive
initsfightagainstRussiainordertomaintaintheillusionthatthereisstillprogressin
containingMoscow.

Andbehindthecold,pragmaticconceptofa"bufferzone"hidesitstruemeaning:"buffer
people."ItisUkrainianswhoaretoengagetheRussianarmedforceswiththelong-
promisedadvancedweaponry,andUkrainianswhowillcomprisetheentiretyofthe
collateraldamage.

WhileUSPresidentBarackObamavetoedthenationaldefensebudget,whichincluded$50
milliontowarddefensiveweaponsforUkraine,heannouncedthatWashingtonwouldstill
supplyUkrainewithcounter-batteryradarsystems.AndifUSofficialsdon'tseeprovisionof
radarsaspotentiallyescalatingtheconflict,Russiacertainlydoes-anditalreadythreatened
retaliation.

Obamaiswisetoavoidthemoreescalatorymove.Thecostofareturntofull-onwarfor
Ukrainewouldbeuntenable.AttheUnitedNations'conservativeestimate,thewarhaskilled
8,000peopleanddisplacedapproximately1.4million.Thelife-givingminingandindustrial
sectorsofDonbasareravaged,andtheeconomiccrisisinducedbythewarisspreading
thateffectfarintogovernment-controlledterritory.

ONTHEGROUNDINDONBAS

Figurescannotexpressthefullcostofsufferingandstrife,andthedeepalienationinthe
easternUkraine.OneoftheseauthorsspentthelovelyautumndayofSeptember25far
fromWashingtonatayoungfamily'shalf-finishedhomeontheDonbasfrontline.Denisand
Yuliasurvivedtheshellinginsummer2014,whentheUkrainianarmydrovetheseparatists
outoftheircity.Butthatwinter,theirhomewasdestroyedbyadirecthitfromseparatist
artillery,killingbothofYulia'sparents.

Theyreturned,andformonthsclearedtherubbleandplantedtheirgardenunder
intermittentshelling.Theirchildrenlearnedtoidentifythesoundofdifferentshellsasthey
passedoverheadinbothdirections.Withthehelpofaidorganizationsandvolunteers,they
beganrebuildingtheirshatteredhome.GazingatthecinderblockwallsoftheirhouseYulia
sighs:"Formeandthekids,thisisalreadyhappiness.Justgiveuspeacesowecanenjoy
it!"

Justgiveuspeace.

ThisisthephraseonehearsfromsomanyrefugeesandfrontlineciviliansinDonbas.From
peoplelikeNatasha,whofledtheSyrianconflictthreeyearsago(shewasmarriedtoa
Kiev-educatedArab)fortherefugeofherparent'shomeinLuhansk.Whenthecitycame
underfirebytheUkrainianarmylastspring,sheandherchildrenbecamerefugeesagain,
movingtoagovernment-heldtownacrosstheriver,whichitselfwasunderconstantfire
untilthegunswentsilenttwomonthsago.

Andnow,inthemidstofitsunaccustomedandfragilesilenceNatasha,Yulia,Denisand
thousandslikethemarecautiouslyallowingthemselvestohopethatthisisnomerelullin
thefighting,buttheendofthewarthathasoverturnedtheirlives.Thisisreflectedinthe
fallingnumbersofinternallydisplacedpersons(IDP).InOctober,theUNRefugeeAgency
(UNHCR)reportedroughly1.5millionIDPsinUkraineamonthlater,thenumberdroppedto
under975,000-astaggering35%decrease.Encouragedbythereducedfighting,peopleare
returningtotheirhomes.

Iftheirhopeisrewarded,andtheyarenotforcedtospendanotherwinterhidingfromthe
bombsinfreezingbasementsandrootcellars,thenitcouldbecomeapotentforcefor
reconciliationandstabilizationinUkraine.

PEACEISVICTORY

TreatingUkraineasashieldagainstRussia,asa"bufferzone,"couldmeankeepingthat
countryinanearperpetualstateofarmedconflictandeverythingthatEuropehopesto
reduceonitsperimeters-instability,povertyandmassrefugeeflows.
TheUSshouldincreasediplomaticsupporttoresolvetheMinskAgreement'scentral
quandary:Iftheso-calledpeople'srepublicsaretoremaininUkraine,howwilltheytakepart
inthepoliticsofacountrytheyhaverecentlybeeninarmedconflictwith?

Anysustainableresolutionislikelyproveasmessyasthepoliticalresolutionthatendedthe
fightinginBosnia20yearsago.Thehorse-tradingandgerrymanderingofthatdealwere
repugnant,butunquestionablypreferabletothefratricidethatprecededit.

StabilizingDonbaswillalsorequireUkrainetorethinkitseconomicblockadeofthe
breakawayregions.IftheartificialinternalborderbetweenthetwohalvesofDonbas
remainsapersistentbarriertotrade,thenbothsidesaredoomedtoeconomicdecline.Itis
onlyaquestionofwhichsponsorcanpropupitsDonbaslonger.

Evenifeconomicrelationsintheeastarerestored,hugeinjectionsofforeignaidwillstillbe
necessarytopropuptheeconomyofUkraineproper.InMarch,theInternationalMonetary
Fund(IMF)approvedUkraine'srequestfor$17.5billion.Forgoodmeasure,theUShas
committed$2billioninloanguarantees.Howeverlaudable,thisleveloffinancialsupportis
nothingcomparedtothehundredsofbillionstheEuropeanUnionhaspouredintoGreece
andinthewordsofDavidR.Cameron,directorofYale'sPrograminEuropeanUnion
Studies,WesternassistancetoUkrainehasbeen"quiteliterally,nothingbutcheaptalk."

WesternleadersshouldfocusonhelpingUkrainestaveoffeconomiccollapseintheeast,
capitalizeonthisrenewedsenseofhopeandcontinuetosearchnonmilitarysolutions.With
thereturnofcivilianpopulationstoDonbas'conflictzones,thestakesareonlygetting
higher.Noweapon,howeverprecise,willeliminateUkraine'senemies,deterRussiaor
makeEuropesaferwithoutthepoliticalwilloftheconflictingsidestoagreetoapeaceful
coexistence.

Yakobashviliisrightinsayingthat"asuccessfulUkrainewillbeacrucialpartofthe
EuropeanandEuro-Atlanticeconomicandsecurityarchitecture,andastimulusfortherest
ofthepost-Sovietregion,especiallytoRussia,toreformanddragthemselvesoutofthe
swampofcorruptionandforcedideologies."Ukrainianscanberolemodelsforhumanism
anddemocracy,andtheplacetostartisinthevolatileperipheralzoneoftheeast.

IfUkraineistobecomeamodelandnotacautionarytale,thentheWestmusthelpitto
protectcivilianpopulationsinDonbasandseekapoliticalsolutiontothisconflict.

[returntoContents]

#22
www.rt.com
February19,2015
"KievgovtresistsonlysolutiontoUkrainecrisis-fullautonomyofDonbass"

TheKievleadership,atleastPMArsenyYatsenyuk,isresistingtheonlysolutionwhichcan
endtheUkraineconflict-fullautonomyfortheDonbassregion,AnatolLieven,of
GeorgetownUniversitySchoolofForeignService,toldRT'sIntheNow.

RT:LastyearWesterngovernmentsclaimedtheywouldbeabletobringprosperityand
democracytoUkraine.CouldUkrainianleadersandtheirforeignsupporterspredictwarand
disorderaftermassprotestinthecountryayearago?

AnatolLieven:No,Idon'tthinktheypredictedit.ClearlytheAmericangovernmentwastrying
tobringaboutthefallof[Viktor]YanukovichbutIdon'tthinkthattheypredictedwhatwould
follow.Onecouldsaythattheyshouldhavepredictedit,butthatisadifferentmatter.Oneof
thestrikingthingsisthatthereweresomanyso-calledexpertsintheWestwhowere
completelyrecklessandirresponsibleinthisregard.

RT:WhatdoyouthinkwastheinitialplanorhopesforUkraine?

AL:Thethingisthatdifferentpeoplehaddifferentplans.WhenitallstartedAmericawasnot
reallyinvolved.ThiswassomethingthattheEUpushed,aboveallbyPoland,andtosome
extentbytheEUpoliticianslikeCarlBildt,initiatedthisEuropeanassociationagreement
whichwasintendedtoblockpossibleUkrainianmembershipoftheEurasianUnion.This
wasanewthing.TheUSessentiallygotonboardlater,asthecrisisdeveloped.Butasthe
crisisdevelopedclearlytheUS,oratleasttheUSdiplomatsontheground,likeVictoria
Nulandfollowedtheiroldplaybookoftryingtopromotewhattheysawwasfreedom,tryingto
createananti-RussianregimeinUkraine.Eventuallytheintentionwasclearlytotake
UkraineintoNATO.

RT:HowdoyouevaluatethejobthatPetroPoroshenkoandArsenyYatsenyukaredoing
consideringhowandwhathasevolvedintheEastofUkraine?

AL:Ofcoursenotabrilliantjobatall,butthentheyareinaverydifficultpositionaboveall
economically.TheUkrainianeconomyiscollapsingWesternaidisonlyenoughtokeepit
tickingalong.UkraineisstillmuchmoredependentonRussiaandofcourserelationswith
Russiahavedeterioratedbadly.Fromthatpointofviewtheyareinaverydifficultsituation.
TherearealsostrongdifferencesbetweenYatsenyukandPoroshenko.Itappearsthat
Poroshenkoisconsiderablymoremoderateandpragmatic.Yatsenyuk,possiblywiththe
encouragementoftheAmericanhardliners,isagreatdealmorenationalistic.Theproblem
isthattheyarestronglyresistingtheonlykindofdeal,atleastYatsenyukis,whichcan
actuallybringanendtothisconflict...thefullautonomyfortheDonbass.They'vedragged
theheelsandtriedtoblockthat.Onecouldsaythattheseparatists'leadersaredoingthe
samething.Butclearlywithoutanagreementonautonomytherecan'tbeevenahalfway
successfulendtothiswarfromtheUkrainianpointofview.Yatsenyukseemstobe
fantasizingaboutthepossibilityofamilitaryvictory.

RT:WhataboutWednesday'sretreatofUkrainianforcesfromDebaltsevo?Doesitmean
thatwe'relookingattheendofthewar?

AL:Ithinkthatispossible.Whathasnowbeenestablishedisamuchmoreviablefrontline.
ClearlyaslongastheUkrainiansheldDebaltsevotherewasgoingtobeendlesstrouble.
Hopefully,thepro-Russiansidenowhaswhattheycouldseeasadefensibleborder.
Therefore,perhaps,willbewillingtoaccepttheceasefireandgoforwardalongthelinesof
autonomy.ButofcoursethatalsodependsontheUkrainiangovernmentbeingwillingto
acceptthepresentsituation.

[returntoContents]

#23
RossiiskayaGazeta
August27,2015
BiddingFarewelltotheCivilWar
Anationthathasnotburieditsperishedfellowcitizenscannotrespectitselfandmove
forward
BySergeiKaraganov,DoctorofHistory,headoftheworkinggrouponhistoricalmemoryat
thepresidentialCouncilontheDevelopmentofCivilSocietyandHumanRights

ManyencouragingchangesaretakingplaceinRussia'shistoricalmemorypolicy,withallits
contradictions,sensationsandfalsesensations.Effortsarebeingmadetorestorethe
memoryofthe"forgottenwar"(WWI),whichformanyyearswasreferredtoas
"imperialistic."AmonumenthasbeenunveiledinMoscow,tobefollowedbymanymore,
andlocalmuseumsaresettinguprelevantexhibitions.

AnothermajorstepinrecreatingacomprehensivepictureofRussianhistorywastakenin
August2015whenthefederalgovernment,onordersfromthePresident,adopteda
conceptofstatepolicyforperpetuatingthememoryofthevictimsofpoliticalrepressions.
Thedocumentwasdraftedbygovernmentagenciesandpublicorganizations,aboveall,by
thepresidentialCouncilontheDevelopmentofCivilSocietyandHumanRights(SPCh).

Asisoftenthecaseinourcountry,thedocumentdidnotcomeeasy.Almostfiveyearsago
agroupofenthusiastsassociatedwiththeSPChinitiatedandpresentedaprogramfor
commemoratingthevictimsandrestoringhistoricalmemory.Weweredrivenbyseveral
principalconvictions.

First,anationthathasnotburieditsperishedfellowcitizenscannotrespectitself,standtall
andgoforward.Likewise,apersonwhohasnotburiedhisbelovedonesdoesnotdeserve
eitherself-respectorrespectofotherpeople.
Second.Forallitsachievements,the20thcenturywasoneofthemostterribleperiodsin
thehistoryofRussia.WorldWarI,thefratricidalCivilWar,andtheGreatPatrioticWar
claimeddozensofmillionsoflives.Plusrepressionsthatkillednotjustmanymillionsof
people,butthebestmenandwomenofthecountry,membersofthegentry,theclergyand
intelligentsia-thekeepersofhistoricalmemoryandnationalidentity-aswellaspeasants
whowerethebackboneofthenation.Theywerefollowedbymanyintellectuals,
administrativecadresandmembersofthemilitary.Entirepeoplesweredeported.
Traditionalvalues,faithandmoralsweredestroyed.Inpointoffact,thebestcitizensandthe
bestincountry`ssoulweresystematicallyeliminatedforseveraldecades.Russiamust
partwiththatperiod.

Third,aconsiderablepartofnationalhistory,thebasisofthepeople'sidentity,waseither
expurgatedordistortedintheirminds.Restoringthememoryofthevictimsispartofthe
worktobedonetorecreatehistoryinitsentirety.

Ourdocumentatfirstdrewstrongoppositionfrompartofsocietyandwasattackedinmass
mediawhichforsomereasoncalleditaprogramofde-StalinizationeventhoughIandmy
colleaguesmadeitclearthatitwasaprogramtorestoreidentitythroughrespectforthe
memoryofthefallen.Besides,wedidnotthinkitrighttoholdonlyStalinresponsiblefor
manyfellowcitizenswhohadplungedthecountryintotherevolutionandrepressions.

Buttheattack,obviouslysupportedbysomeoneinfluential,judgingfromitsintensity,helped
ratherthanharmedbymakingtheideamorepopular.Itwassadthoughthatyoungpeople,
anewcreativeclass,didnotsupporttheprogramfouryearsago.Apparently,itdidnot
excitethem.Butthousandsofpeopleandaboutadozenofpublicorganizationsfamiliar
withtheproject,abovealltheInternationalMemorial,workedwithunprecedented
selflessnessandenergy.About800localmonumentshavebeenerectedacrossthe
country,anddozensofbooksandarticleswerepublished.Theworkofourgrouphelpedto
unitemanyseparatehistoricalmemorymovements.IstillcannothelpsmilingwhenIrecall
thefirstmeetingwehelpedtoorganizebetweentheheadsofMemorialandtheButovo
ShootingRange,whoalsorepresentedtheOrthodoxChurch.Untilthenbothsideshad
commemoratedtheirvictimsseparately.Nowtheydoittogether.Philanthropists'donations
allowedustolaunchandoperatethewebsitewww.istpamyat.ru,whichhasconsolidated
manysourcesofinformationconcerningvictimsofrepressions.Wealsodrafteda
commemorationprogramwhichthenservedasthebasisforthepresentconcept.We
thoughtthecountryneededasignofstatesupportforthegoalsandobjectivesdeclaredin
theprogramthatwouldsendasignaltobothbureaucratsandsociety.

Theconceptsendssuchasignaltoallofus.Thereisnoneedtodescribeithere,foritcan
easilybefoundontheInternet.Iwillonlymentionitsunderlyingprinciples:recognizingthe
continuityofthehistoricaldevelopmentofthecountryacknowledgingthetragic
consequencesofthesocietalsplitthattriggeredtheturmoilof1917,theCivilWar,and
masspoliticalrepressionsadmittingtheneedforanobjectiveanalysisoftheSoviet
period'sachievementsandtragicchapters,includingmassrepressionscondemningthe
ideologyofpoliticalterror.

AtoneofthemeetingswiththePresidentin2013wesuggestedbuildinganational
monumenttothevictimsofpoliticalrepressionsinMoscow.ThePresidentsupportedthe
ideathathadbeentoolongincoming.Acontestofdesignswasorganized,andabout300
projectsweresubmitted.Thewinnerwillbeannouncedsoon,andtheconstructionwillstart
atthesiteselectedbytheMoscowcityauthoritiesattheintersectionofSakharovAvenue
andtheGardenRingroad.Thefederalgovernmentwillmeetpartofthecosts,forourstate
isthelegalsuccessoroftheonethatprosecutedandkilledpeople.Therestwillcomefrom
people'sdonationsasasignofpersonalgriefforthefallenandrecognitionofthe
responsibilitybornbyourfathersandgrandfathersfortherepressionstheycarriedout.

ThebigandmodernGULAGMuseumwillopeninMoscowonOctober30designatedas
DayofRemembranceoftheVictimsofPoliticalRepressions.Theprojectwasinitiatedby
theMoscowcitygovernment.TheGardenofMemoryhasbeensetupattheButovo
ShootingRange,anditsmuseumwillgetanewbuildingtoexpanditsexhibitions.Workon
abillfullyrehabilitatingthevictimsofpoliticalrepressionsisinitsfinalstage.

Inanotherencouragingdevelopment,peopleunitedinthe"LastAddress"publicmovement
haveinstalledmemorialplaquesonseveraldozenhousesinMoscowandSt.Petersburgto
commemoratethosewhohadlivedthereandbeenkilledduringrepressions.
ButtherearestillmanydangerousvoidsinRussianhistoricalmemory.Oneofthemishow
societyandthestateperceivetheCivilWarprecipitatedbythesplitofsocietyanditselite,
itsincapabilityandlossofresponsibilityforthecountry,withallthetragicconsequences
thatfollowed.Aquarterofacenturyago,themajorityofpeopleinthecountrysupportedthe
Reds,thentheWhites.It'stimetounderstandthatbothwerewrongbyallowingthesplit
andstartingafratricidalwar.Nowsocietyisdividedagain,eventhoughdifferently,and
needstoberemindedofthedramaticresultsofthepreviousspiltandirresponsibilityof
elites.Butmostimportantly,thatthecountryandMotherlandareabovepersonalconvictions
andindividualfates.

Spainisanexampleofhowtobidadignifiedfarewelltoacivilwar,whichwasalsotragic
butnotasdisastrousasours.Itbuiltalargememorialcomplexwherepeoplefromboth
warringsideswerelaidtorest.Ontopofthememorialareacrossandanepitaphreading
"TheylovedSpain."

It'stimeweputanend,atleastasymbolicone,toourownCivilWarthatstartedalmosta
hundredyearsago,in1917.Ithinkthereshouldbeamonumenttoo.Ivisualizeitquite
clearly:MotherMotherlandisbestowingforgivenessonthekneltWhiteofficerandtheRed
commissarwearingabudyonnovka.OneofthemhadfailedtodefendtheoldRussiaand
diedignominiouslyabroadtheotheronehadwontoperishinrepressions.Thisisahard
issuefornationalconscience.ButitistimetobidfarewelltotheCivilWarthrough
discussion,atleastdeepwithinus,andfillthisvoidinhistory.

[returntoContents]

#24
RunningforOfficeinSiberia:Andthewinneris.....
LastinaseriescoveringtheDistrict#35NovosibirskCityCouncilelection.
September17,2015
BySarahLindemann-Komarova
[Founder,SiberianCivicInitiativesSupportCenter1995-2014.Helpedtoestablishthisas
thehubforthefirstcivilsocietydevelopmentsupportnetworkintheformerSovietUnion.]

Articlewithpictures:
http://medium.com/@ECHOSiberia/running-for-office-in-siberia-and-the-winner-is-
980b2b069ccb

Earlierepisodes:
http://medium.com/@ECHOSiberia

ElectionDay:Thegloriousdaysof30degreeSiberianIndianSummersunshinewereover.
Itwassixdegreesandraining,theweatheryoudonotwantifyourchancesofwinning
dependonalargeturnout.ThiswasthecasewithNataliaPinusinDistrict#35.Nikita
Galitarov,hermajoropponent,aggressivelytargetedpensioners,thecertainvotersin
Russia.Shewascountingoninspiringanewgrouptobecomeactive.Thebigdare.A
chancetoprovethepotentialofgrassrootsdemocracyinRussiaandbuildonthelegacyof
thiscommunity.Akademgorodok,theplacewhereperestroikawasbornattheInstituteof
EconomicsacrossthestreetfromthecoffeeshopthatwouldserveasElectionDay
headquartersforNatalia'scampaign.Twopostersstuckonthewallweretheonlyindication
thiswasnotyourordinarycaf.Onewasasign,"HeadquartersforNataliaPinus
supporters".Theother,achart,listedpollingplacesandtimeintervals.Nataliawasthere
alongwithAlla,hergoodfriend,whowasinchargeofregisteringthevotercountreportedby
observersevery2hoursfromeachofthe15stations.Anothermanwashunkereddownin
thecorner.Galitarov'sguy,helookedexactlylikeathugsentbyaconstructioncompanyto
intimidateyoushouldlook.AtleastinRussiabecausehewasdrinkingteaandplayingwith
afancyphoneandcomputer.WorldswerecollidingatHeadquartershighlightingthestakes.
Wasitpossiblea29yearoldcandidate,whodidnotliveorworkhere,whoseonly
distinguishingcharacteristicswereapileofmoneyandmasterfuldirtytrickskills,couldend
uprepresentingthiscommunityintheCityCouncil?Theonlycertaintywastheweatherand
itwasraining.Foranelectionthathadmorphedfromaneight-personracetoamythical
battlebetweengoodandevil,thiswasnotgood.

Initially,thepollingstationshadmoreofficialpersonnelthanvoters(electioncommission
members,observers,policeanddoctors).Ifanythingwasreallyoff,itwouldbenoticedby
allotofpeople.By10AM,theGalitarovpeoplehadplasteredanewbatchofpostersonmy
building,aclearviolationoftherules.Igotacallfromafriendjustasitstartedtohail.She
wasemphaticseveraldaysago,"neverforNatalia".Now,shewasoutraged,"Whatisgoing
on?Whatugliness!ANIGHTMAREishappening!"ShewasgoingouttovoteforNatalia.
Maybetheyhadtakenthesteptoofar,notinthiscommunity,theAkademgorodokwagons
werecircling.

Hypothetically,anythingovertheofficial24%turnoutestimatewouldbeinNatalia'sfavor.
The2PMcountwasgoodwith18.99%.BetshadbeenplacedandDanil,asupportive
presencethroughoutthecampaign,tookthehigh-endpositionwith31%.Nataliawas
talkingtothenochance,butniceguy,candidatefromthedemocraticsocialistAJust
Russiaparty.Theycomparednotesaboutthecellphoneterrorismtheirteamsexperienced
thismorning.Supporterswereplayingabuildingblocktowergame.Theobjectivewasto
removeawoodenpiecewithoutcausingthestructuretocollapse.Theperfectwaytokill
time,practicingthestrategyanddisciplinethatkeptNatalia'scampaignfromcollapsing
whenshesaid"no"toUnitedRussiaafterwinningtheprimary.TheGalitarovthugwasgone
whenthetowerfell.Thisremindedmeofaquotebytherecentlyelected,firstfemaleMayor
inBarcelona."Inthestoryofhumanity,everythingisimpossibleuntilitbecomespossible".
Justlikethebuildinggame,youwillnotknowifyougotthebalancerightuntiltheblockis
completelyremoved.

By6PMturnoutwas27.3%.Nataliawasoutvotinganddeliveringdinnerstovolunteers
throughoutthedistrict.Leonid,campaigncoordinator,isinchargetalkingtovolunteersin
thefieldandscanningtheInternetfornews.A30yearoldphysicistattheNuclearPhysics
Institute,politicsishishobby.Meanwhile,amanIneversawbeforewasholdingcourt.He
describedhowaProfessorinTomsksoldhisvoteandthenoutsmartedthebuyer.He
organizedtwopiecesofblackthreadtolooklikeacheckmarkontheballot,tookthe
confirmationpictureandthenremovedthem.Sincethismanseemedtoknoweverything
aboutelectionsIasked,"What'sthedealwithGalitarov?Whyisthismansointenton
representingAkademgorodok?"AccordingtoAkadem'sversionofDeepThroat,United
RussiawasreallyinterestedinNatalia'sprimaryperformance.Nobodyvotesinprimaries
sotheywereimpressedwiththetinynumberofvotessheturnedout(204),andevenmore
withthegapbetweenherandsecondplace(65).Then,Nataliapolitelydeclined.Inher
account,thePartyrepresentativetookthenewscalmlyandwishedherwell.InDeep
Throat'saccount,thatwasitforher.TheytoldGalitarovtotakethe18millionrubleshewas
planningtospendinanotherdistrictanduseittodefeatNatalia.HeestimatesthatNatalia's
surprisingstayingpowerforcedthefinalcostofhiscampaignto20million.

PollsclosedateightbutCityCouncilvotesarethelastoffourracescounted.Sometime
aftermidnighttheofficialwinnerwouldbedeclared.Headquarterswasstayingopen
trackingresultsuntilthecafclosedatmidnight.Nataliawasbusyonthephonegetting
updates.Allaoccupiedthecornerseatformerlyheldbythethug.Shefilledinchartsdrawn
onXeroxpaperusingamagnifyingglasstosee.Thefirstresultwasfromaschoollocated
inNatalia'sbaseterritory.Thenewswaspromising,thesizeofthewinsignificant.Itgave
hera40votecushiontomakeupforlosseselsewhere.Iaskedoneofhersupporterswhat
hethoughtwasgoingtohappen.Hesaidanyattempttoinfluencethevotewouldhappen
beforetheballotsarecountedbecauseNovosibirskdoesn'thavea"system".Hedefineda
"system"asnoacceptedhierarchywithpowertointervene.Breakinganelectionlaw
procedureisacriminaloffense.Ifthereisn'ta"system",noonewillriskdoingit.Iasked
howyouknowifthereisa"system"?Afriendofhiswasanobserverinaneighboring
region.Apoliceofficerorderedhimtostandthreemetersawayinacornerwhilethey
countedthevotes.Theywouldarresthimifheignoredthepoliceorder.Thatisa"system".
Itwaspossibletomakesmalladjustmentsduringthecount.Legallythecommissionis
requiredtoholdupeachballotandannouncethenamebeforeplacingitonapile(think
chadsin2000).Sometimes,experiencedcommissionmembersspeeduptheprocess.
Theymakepilesfirstandthencounttheballotsbutheexpectedanhonestcounttonight.

At11:30PMAllawasperchedoverhersheets,magnifyingglassinhand,counting.Results
fromGalitarovterritoryweresurprisinglygoodforNatalia.Losseswereonlybyafewvotes.
Inothernews,CommunistPartywinsinterritoriesNataliacarriedasDeputydemonstrated
theconfusednatureofRussianpolitics.Andre,theDirectorofAcadem.infoandAkademTV,
wasthere.Hepledgedtoshavehisbeardandsharewhatlookedlikewaterinabeautiful
corkedglassbottleifshewon.Closingtime,Andregrabbedthemysteriousbottleand
invitedeveryonetocontinuethevigilathisoffice.Nataliawentshoppingforsnacks.There
wasnosenseofexcitement,justtimetomoveon.OutonthestreetAndrerevealedthe
bottlewashispersonalrecipesamogon(Russianmoonshine),50proof."Youneverhad
anythinglikeit,noheadache".
Thereisauniqueatmospherecreatedwhenyouswitchonofficelightsinthemiddleofthe
night.Thatflorescentintensityappliestowhateverisgoingonbecauseotherwiseyouwould
behomesleepinglikeeveryoneelse.Allawasthefirsttosettleinspreadinghercharts
acrossthebestdeskandclaimingthebestchair.Nataliaarrivedandlaidoutaspreadof
delicaciesthatconstitutethesecrettoRussianscapacitytosopupalcohol(fishandmeat,
picklesandeggplantrolls,almondsandpistachios).Theyarealsodisciplineddrinkers.
Thereisaritualtoit.Nothinggetsuncorkeduntilthereissomethingtotoast,victoryor
defeat.Theresultsalreadyinshouldhavebeengoodenoughtoinspiregiddyconfidence
amongthecampaignstaff.Therewasnone.IwassuretheyallknewwhatIlearnedtonight,
20millionrublesspenttodefeather.Someonemusthaveatrickuptheirsleeve.Natalia
workedthephones,Allacountedandrecounted,thecoordinatorcollectedsignedofficial
talliesfromobserverswhiletherestmadesmalltalk.Iwondered,ifnotthecount,whatwill
bethesignalitisoktostartdrinking?

Natalia'sphonerang.Whoeverwasontheothersidewasdoingmostofthetalking.Natalia
utteredshort,somberrepliesendingwith"Thankyou"beforeclickingoff.Thegangstaredat
herwaitinguntilsomeonefinallyasked,"whowasthat?"Nataliaanswered"Galitarov",again
silenceuntilsheadded,"hecongratulatedme".Noonewhooped,itwassoanti-climaticI
forgottocapturethemomentonfilm.Andrestartedtouncorkthechampagne,theonlyone
withasmile,asAllasaidsomethingaboutamissingsignatureandNataliastartedtoeat
pistachiosbeforereturningtolookatwhatshewasworkingon.Thiswasactuallyit.Iturned
onthecameraandgotabusinessasusualscenewhileAndreworkedonthecorksoI
decidedtoprompt.

Me:Natalia,whowasjustonthephone?
Natalia:Myopponent.
Andre(laughing):MAINopponent.
Natalia(slightsmileonherfaceasshecontinuestopickatthepistachios):Yes,main
opponent,Galitarov.
Me:Andwhatdidhesay?
Natalia:HesaidIcongratulateyouforthehonestwinandthensomekindofthoughtsabout
thingsIhadchargedhimwith...

SheshiftedfocusbacktoAllamumbling,"Idon'trememberaccusinghimofanything".
Andreemptiedtheentirebottlefillingsevenwaterglasses.Nataliaturnedaroundandasked,
"Whydidyoudothat?"Iassumedshedisapprovedoftheportionsbecauseshewantedto
pacethedrinking.Itturnedoutshewantedjustasipofchampagneforthetraditionalfirst
toast.Then,moveontothesamagonwithoutriskinga50proofheadache.Icontinuedto
waitforbehaviorIassociatedwithanelectoralfairytaleending.Wasitexhaustion,shock,
Russianpessimismevertriumphingovervictory?No,nooneknewhowtoreact.There
wasnoprecedentforthis.Theresponsetothisvictoryshouldbedifferent.Barbra
Streisand'sversionofFDRsrousingup-tempovictorysong."HappyDaysareHereAgain"
asacontemplative,defiantballadthatacknowledgesthefightisnotoveryet.Thethirdtoast
andIgetthetriumphantsoundbite.Asynchronizedclinkingofglasses,"TotheFIRST
victory!"andeveryonelaughs.

Epilogue

Intheend,afterallthepromises,Galitarov's"Idoitnow",Heating/KGBMan's"Warmthin
yourhome",Scienceman's"ContinuetheworkofLavrentevthetownsfounder",itwas
Natalia'ssimple,"IloveGorodok",thattookthepoliticsoutofitandwon.Anothermajor
factor,theGalitarovcampaignstrategistsmisjudgedthiscommunity.Ofthe31%ofeligible
voterswhoparticipatedinAkademgorodok,26.13%supportedNatalia.Galitarovsqueaked
outsecondplacewith16.77%toScienceman's16.27%.TheAJustRussianiceguycame
infourthandtheinvisibleUnitedRussiacandidatefifth.

EmotionalFacebookmessagesmadeclearthemeaningofhervictory.Theyalso
appreciateditssource,anhonestcampaign,manydescribingitasbeautiful.The
techniquessheusedarewellknown,easytounderstand,canbetaughtandreplicated.
Moreproblematic,thequalitiesNataliadisplayedasacandidate.Theyarerare,hardto
understandandimpossibletoteach.Liketryingtocatchlightninginabottle,butthatiswhat
makesthemsopowerfulwhentheyappear.Shewillneedallofthem,andthensome,asa
Deputyifsheisgoingtoachieveanythingatall.Thenew50memberNovosibirskCity
Councilmetforthefirsttimethreedaysaftertheelection.ThePartycountis:32United
Russia,12CommunistParty,2right-wingultranationalistLDPR,1socialdemocraticA
JustRussia,1neo-liberal(butwhoreallyknows)CivicPlatformPartyandtwoindependents
(includingNatalia).Iamconfidentofonlythreethings.Nataliawilltryherhardesttogetthe
resultsshecampaignedfor,itwillbeinterestingtoseewhathappensandfor,itwillbe
interestingtoseewhathappensandtheshorelineofcynicismhasreceded....atleastin
Akademgorodok.

[returntoContents]

#25
www.belgraviadispatch.com
March14,2015
REALISTICAPPRAISALOFRUSSIA'SPOLICYISN'TTANTAMOUNTTOAPUTIN
APOLOGIA
ByGregoryDjerejian
GregoryDjerejianisManagingDirectorandHeadofAsia-Pacificforaglobalasset
managementfirm,particularlyactiveincommercialrealestate,hotel&resortdevelopment,
companyacquisitions/disposalsandalternativeinvestments.

GideonRachmanisperhapsthemostperceptiveforeignaffairscolumnistwritingtoday,but
hegetsitbadlywronginhiscolumn("VladimirPutin'ssurvivalstrategyisliesandviolence",
March2),succumbingtospeculationinthewakeofBorisNemtsov'stragicmurder.

Mr.RachmanseekstotarasPutin"apologist"anyonewhobelievestheRussianPresident
isdrivenbylegitimatenationalinterests.Instead,Putinissolelyoutto"savehisownskin"
withthisthe"redthread"drivingallhisactions(includingMr.Nemtsov'smurder,itisallbut
pronounced).AswiththeSovietUnion,wemustnowadoptacontainmentpolicywith
Russia,hisargumentgoes.

Thiswouldbeahistorictragedy,butonefromwhichwecanstillstepback.Toavoid
Pavlovianrecoursetoneo-containmentwemustceasespillingendlessinkcastigatinga
noxiousMr.Putin(asHenryKissingerhaswritten,"demonizationofVladimirPutinisnota
policyitisanalibifortheabsenceofone.").Insteadweshouldadoptabroaderpurviewthat
elevatespolicy-makingawayfromserialrecrimination,perhapswithsomeofthebelow
threeobservationstoinformus.

First,realismadvisesoneavoidingprotractedcogitationsaroundthepotentialmotivations
ofstatesman.Behindthenicetiesofmyriadcommuniques&pronouncements,international
politicsremainrootedininterestsdefinedbypower,andinprecinctswellbeyondthewalls
ofTheKremlin.Policyshouldbeguidedbythisreality,ratherthanheatedspeculations
aroundtheprecisemotivationsofindividualstatesman.

Second,weshouldberemindedthatPutin,asaWestern-facingSaintPetersburgian,
profferedhishandtotheWestinthepast(indeed,evenMr.Nemtsovpreviouslysupported
Putin).Wesawthisopennessafter9/11whenPutinassistedtheU.S.initsanti-terror
campaign,notablywithrespecttoAfghanistan.Alas,ratherthanbuildonsuchmomentum,
PutinwaspaidbackwithroundsofNATOexpansion,apull-outfromtheAnti-Ballistic
MissileTreaty,theoversteppingofU.N.authorizationsinbothIraqandLibya,andcookie
dispensationsinMaidan.

Third,ashakycease-firewilllikelyultimatelyfail-toUkraine'sgravedetriment-unlessworld
powersmovefromtacticalcrisismanagementtomorestrategicconflictresolution.This
mustinvolveUkraineforsakingNATOmembershipinreturnforrestorationofitsborders
(ex-Crimea),aswellasprovisionofbonafidelanguageandminorityrightsina
decentralizedDonbass.NotleastgiventheparamountNATOissue,onesuspectstheU.S.
cannotcontinuetogetawaywithlargelysubcontractingitsUkrainepolicytoAngelaMerkel.

TodaytherhetoricfromWashingtonandLondon(thankfullynotyetfromtheWhiteHouse)
resoundswiththedogsofwar:armingUkraine,"frontlinestates"withNATO"command&
controlcenters",essentiallyarenewedmilitarytrip-wirebestridingMoscow's(shrunken)
frontiers.Howdoweexpectadeclining,humiliatedpowertorespondinthecircumstances?
VladimirPutin'sapprovalratingsareveryhighforareasonbeyondablepropaganda.
Deeperhistoriccurrentsandrealitiesareafootthatweignoreatourownperil.

[returntoContents]
#26
TheUnzReview
www.unz.com
August21,2015
RussiaandtheDepressionThatWasn't
ByAnatolyKarlin
[Chartsandlinksherehttp://www.unz.com/akarlin/russia-not-in-depression/]

NearlyeveryotherdaybringsanotherscaryheadlineaboutRussia'seconomicapocalypse.
InflationisrobbingRussiansofbuyingpowerandPutinpropagandistsaredenyingit.The
"wheelsarecomingoff"theregimeaccordingtoourfriendsattheRFERL,theendofthe
regimeisnighaccordingtoBillBrowder,andPutin'sdaysarenumbered,atleastinthe
creativeimaginationofUkrainiannationalistacademicAlexanderMotyl.

MashaGessen'sfriendscannolongergettheirlittleGruyres,the"legendary"(primarilyfor
losinghisclients'money)MoscowinvestorSlavaRabinovichispredictingfoodshortages,
andthingsareonlyabouttogetworsewithoilfallingto$25perbarrelandtherubleto
125/$1,atleastaccordingtotheKhodorkovsky-fundedInterpretMag'sPaulGoble,whohas
madesomethingofaprofessionalcareerforecastingRussia'stakeoverbyMuslimsandthe
Chinese.

AmbroseEvans-Pritchard,theguywhohaspredictedalltwelveofChina'spastzero
recessionsamongstotherforecastingaccomplishments,saysthatRussiais"inafull-
blowndepression."

OnewouldthinkfromallthenoisethatwearelookingatsomesortofGreece-like
depression,oranimminentrerunofthecollapseofthepost-Sovieteconomyinthe1990s.

Nowfortheratherbanalreality.RealGDPisexpectedtocontractbyaround2.7%thisyear
accordingtotheWorldBank,butthenrecoverto0.7%in2016and2.5%in2017.

Thereasonsbehindthisarelikewiseprettybanal.Theydon'thaveagreatdealtodowith
Westernsanctions,whichhurttheabilityofRussiancompaniestoraisecapitalbut
otherwisehavehadlittlebite,andtheyhaveevenlesstodowithanyparticularfeatureof
Russia'spoliticalsystem/kleptocracy/lackofeconomicfreedomsthatbothanti-Russian
establishmentpunditslikeArielCohenandpro-WesternliberalsinRussialikeformer
FinanceMinisterAlexeyKudrinliketoclaimasdoomingittoeconomicstagnation.Ifthey
wereright,thenEast-CentralEurope-mostofwhichisratedasaloteconomicallyfreer
andlesscorruptthanRussiaonthevariousindicesthatproclaimtomeasuresuch-would
notalsohavebeenstuckinarelativeeconomicrutsincearound2007.

No,thereasonforRussia'srecessionisquitesimpleandboilsdowntothesharpcollapse
inoilpricesfrom~$100in2014to~$50thisyear.

ThoughtheRussianeconomyisaboutfarmorethanjustoil-naturalresourcerentsare
18%ofGDP-itistruethatoilisthekeycomponentofRussia'sexportbasket.Sowhenoil
pricescollapse,intheabsenceofmassiveandunsustainableinterventions,theruble
devalues.Thisisindeedwhathappened.Importswentdown,goodsbecamemore
expensive,andinflationrose.TheCentralBankjackedupinterestratesinordertoprevent
runawayinflation,butatthepriceofadeclineinaggregatedemandandconsequentlya
short-rundecreaseintheGDP.Ifoneisreallysearchingforacomparison,thecorrectone
wouldbenottoGreece(whichislockedinamonetarystraitjacketbytheECB)nortothe
lateSovietUnion(whollyirrelevant)buttotheVolckerrecessionintheearly1980sUS.

Thereisnowaverysubstantialoutputgap.DependenceonWesterncreditisnowmuch
reducedrelativeto2013,tosaynothingof2007.Meanwhile,thereareactiveandserious
effortstodevelopRussia'sownfinancialsystem,whichremainswoefullyunderdeveloped
foraneconomyofitssizeandscope.

Finally,evenifoilpricesdroppermanentlyto$50-whichisentirelypossible,giventhe
removaloftheIransanctions,thiswouldnotmeantheRussianeconomywouldbe
necessarilydoomedtoyearsofstagnation.Tothecontrary,econometricmodelingby
RussianeconomistSergeyZhuravlevindicatesthatitwouldresultina~1.5yearrecession
(whichbeganinmid-2013,versus2012inhismodelbutotherwiseitremainsveryrelevant)
followedbyacceleratedGDPgrowththankstoexports.
Otherwise,macroeconomicindicatorsremainunremarkable.Corporatedebtrepayments
scheduledforthesecondhalfoftheyeararetwicelowerthaninthefirsthalf.Thebudget
deficitisforecasttobe3-4%ofGDPfortheyearandoverallstatedebtlevelscontinuetobe
verylow.(Incidentally,thisfigureis20%forSaudiArabia.Whichshouldputthenailinthe
coffinoftheidioticconspiracytheorythatthefallinoilpriceshasbeenorchestratedbythem
andtheUStoundermineRussia).
.
Unemploymenthasbarelybudged,notevenreaching6%atitspeak.Incomparison,itwas
at10%throughoutmuchofthe1990s.Thisisalmostentirelyanoutputrecession.

Nowinevitablywhenrecessionsoccur,livingstandardstendtofall,andpeoplehavetolive
morefrugally.ReadingtheWesternmedia,onewouldthinkthattherecessionhasledtoa
tsunamiinworkerprotests,criminality,andeliteintriguesagainstPutin.

Butinstatisticalterms,therealimpactsofthedownturnhavebeenmodest.Accordingto
Levadaopinionpolls,thepercentageofpeoplehavingdifficultybuyingfoodandclothing
increasedto32%thisyearfrom21%in2014,butthisisstilllowerthanthefigurefor(pre-
crisis)2012,whenitwasat33%,tosaynothingoftheearly2000s(higherthan50%)orthe
1990s(around80%).ThepercentageofRussianswhospendeither"almostall"or"two
thirds"oftheirincomesonfood,anothermeasureofpoverty,is26%thisyear,completely
unchangedfrom2014,andactuallylowerthanin2013(33%)orthe2000singeneral
(40%-50%),toagainsaynothingofthe1990s(consistentlyaround80%).Thesenumbers
havebeenconfirmedcrediblebyobserverssuchasRussiaInsider'sGilbertDoctorowand
AlexanderMercouris,whohavepersonallyassessedthesituationontheground,instark
contrasttotheNewYorkTimes'MashaGessen'srelianceonher"Jesuisfromage"liberal
Russianfriend.

ItisdeeplyunfashionabletosaythisbutRussianlivingstandardshaveimproved
astronomicallyinthe15yearsofPutin'srule-moresothantheheadlineGDPfigures.As
such,evenarecessionlikethecurrentoneonlykickslivingstandardsbackbyoneortwo
years.

Assuch,itisnotsurprising-ifdeeplydisappointingtotheWesterneliteswhowanttostir
upacolorrevolutioninRussia-thatRussia'slevelof"protestpotential"(thepercentageof
Russianssayingtheywouldbewillingtoparticipateinprotests,orratingthelikelihoodof
protestsasbeinghigh)iscurrentlynearrecordlows.

Naturally,anysuchattemptstoputtheeffectsofanultimatelymodest~3%dropinGDP
intostatisticalperspectivewillbemetwithaccusationsofcallousindifferenttotheplightof
theRussianpeople,andtheworkofOlginotrollstoboot.Ihaveseenthisreplayed
numeroustimesontheInternet,evenwhenthepeoplemakingsuchargumentswere
RussianslivinginRussians,whoseonlysinwastorecounttheirown(generallymodest)
experiencesandimpressionsoftherecession.

Makenomistake-thereisawellcoordinatedmediaeffortintheWesttoleverageany
RussianeconomicproblemstodestabilizetheKremlin.Notethechorusofcondemnation
aroundthedestructionoffoodillegallyimportedfromtheEUincontraventionofRussian
sanctions,eventhoughthedestructionofexcessfoodisroutineundertheEU'sCommon
AgriculturalPolicy.

Naturally,thisisdrivenbytheiraltruisticandheartfeltcommitmenttothewellbeingofthe
Russianpeople.Thoughisn'titjustaweebitstrangethatthosejournalistsand"activists"
whotendtoshoutloudestabouttheburningofEuropeanfoodalsotendedtobetheones
whomaintainedthethickestsilenceabouttheburningofRussianpeopleinOdessainthe
newEuropeanUkraine.

[returntoContents]

#27
ValdaiDiscussionClub
http://valdaiclub.com
June9,2015
IstheRussianFederationaThreattotheInternationalOrder?
ByDavidLane
DavidLaneisEmeritusFellowofEmmanuelCollege,UniversityofCambridge,aFellowof
theAcademyofSocialSciencesandaVice-PresidentoftheEuropeanSociological
Association
[Chartsandfootnotesherehttp://valdaiclub.com/russia_and_the_world/78040.html]

PresidentPutiniswidelyportrayedasathreattopeaceandtheinternationalorder.One
mightdistinguishbetweentwowaysofanalysingathreatposedbyastateinitsconductof
foreignaffairs.First,therearepositivedriversintheformofaggressiveactions.These
stemfromtheactionsofstateleaderswhoaremotivatedtoattackotherstatesfor
purposesoftheirownortheircountries'economicorpoliticaladvantage.Suchpoliciesmay
bedrivenbynationaloruniversalisticideologiesorbytheambitionsofleaders.Hitler's
DrangnachOstenandBritain'scolonialconquestofIndiamaybecitedasexamplesan
activepolicy[1].Second,thereareactionswhicharereactivetothepoliciesofotherstates.
Theseactionsaredrivenbyanxietyorfearderivedfromabeliefthatotherstatesare
behaving,orlikelytobehave,maliciously.Stateswithsuchperceptionsmayreact
aggressivelytodefendtheirinterests.Anexamplehereistheplacingofintercontinental
missilesonCubabytheUSSR.ThoughCubaclaimedthatthemissileswerepurelyfor
defensivepurposes,theUSAperceivedthemasathreatandretaliatoryaggressiveaction
todefenditsinterestsfollowed.

Thedebateabout'Russiaasathreat'totheinternationalorderhingesonwhichofthese
twoapproachesonebelievesdeterminesRussia'sbehaviour.

The'PositiveDrivers'Interpretation

Thecaseforanactive'threat'hasbeenputbyacademics,politicalleadersaswellas
journalistswritinginthequalitynewsjournals.Jean-ClaudeJuncker,thepresidentofthe
EuropeanCommission,inMarch2015calledfortheformationofa'Europeanarmytoface
uptotheMoscowthreat'[2].Theobjectiveisto'defendthevaluesoftheEuropeanUnion'.
TimothyGartenAsh,inTheGuardian(1February2015)revealedtheevilsofVladimirPutin
whomhedescribedas'theSlobodanMilosevicoftheformerSovietUnion:[whois]asbad,
butbigger.Behindasmokescreenoflieshehasrenewedhisdrivetocarveoutapuppet
para-stateineasternUkraine'[3].

Intheacademicsphere,MichaelMcFaulcontendsthatRussianforeignpolicychanged
underPutinasaconsequenceof'Russianinternalpoliticaldynamics'[4].ForMcFaul,the
motivatingfactoristhepublic'sdisapproval(expressedinvoting,demonstrationsandthe
fearthatPutinwouldbeconfrontedwithapopular'colouredrevolution')whichledhimto
adoptpoliciesthatwould'mobilisehiselectoralbaseanddiscredittheopposition'(p.170).
TheUSAwasrecastasanenemy,a'sinisterforceinworldaffairs'(ibid).

AprominentthemeexplainingRussianactioninforeignaffairsisthedrivetofulfilitsgeo-
politicalgoals.Russiaisregardedasacountryinterveningmilitarily'tomaintainitsinfluence
acrossthedomainsoftheformerSovietUnion'[5].InHillaryClinton'sview:'Weknowwhat
thegoal[oftheEurasianUnion]isandwearetryingtofigureoutwaystoslowdownor
preventit'[6].Theobjectivehereistohaltthespreadof(supposed)Sovietnormswhich
contaminatethevaluesofliberaldemocracyandamarketsociety.

Thepopularmediamessageisoneofpersonalityand'motive'.Russia'sPresidentisa
demoncombiningtheworstcharacteristicsofJosephStalin,AdolphHitlerandSlobodan
Milosevich(occasionallyreachingbacktoIvantheTerrible).'Putin'sRussia'isexpansionist,
nationalist,imperialist,dictatorial,andhypocriticallyanti-Western.Itthrivesonstrategiesto
destabiliseneighbouringcountries,aswellasNATOandtheEU.Theideologyof
EurasianismandtheformationoftheEurasianUnionareindicationsofthedesireto
reinventtheSovietUnion.Consequently,'Putin'sRussia'isthecauseofthecivilwarin
UkrainewhichisaprecursortotheactivedestabilisationoftheBalticnewmemberstates
oftheEUandNATO.Thisisascenarioofactiveaggressivepolitics.

TheantidoteprescribedbyPresidentPutin'scriticsistoescalateeconomic,politicaland
militarysanctions.FollowingtheeconomicrestrictionsagainstRussianfirmsandpersons,
inMarch2015theadvancedpartiesoftheAmericanandBritishmilitaryarrivedinUkraine.

ThroughtherhetoriconemightidentifyfourmajorissuesunderlyingRussianpolicy.Firstly,I
considerwhetheritsleadersaremotivatedtopromotetheirowninterestsbyde-stabilising
theinternationalordersecondly,whetheritsideologyentailsanythreattootherstates,
nationsorgroupsthirdly,whetherinitsactions,ithaspromotedamilitarybuildupand
finally,whethertheRussianFederationortheEurasianUnionpossessthemilitarycapacity
toposeaseriousdangertotheinternationalorder.

A'Reactive'Interpretation

AfterthedismantlingoftheSovietUnion,Russiainforeignaffairswasfacedbytwomajor
challenges.WhereasRussiawasindeclineanditsregionalbloc(TheCommonwealthof
IndependentStates)wasmoribund,theformeradversariesoftheSovietUnionwerebeing
considerablystrengthened.NATOandtheEuropeanUnionwereenlarged.Moreover,both
organisationshadmovedsignificantlytotheeast.Ironicallyperhaps,noneofthereasons
putforwardfortheexpansionofNATOtotheareasoftheformerUSSR,wereframedinthe
contextofapossible(letalonelikely)Russianmovetoseizeformerterritories.NATO's
expansiontotheeaststartedin1999withtheentryoftheVisegradcountries,followedin
2004byBulgaria,Estonia,Latvia,Lithuania,Romania,SlovakiaandSlovenia.Albaniaand
CroatiajoinedNATOin2009.Economically,politicallyandmilitary,'theWest'hadarrivedat
Russia'sborders.AttheurgingoftheUSA,inApril2008NATOconsideredtheadditionof
UkraineandGeorgia.FollowingoppositionfromGermanyandFrance,theywerenot
admitted.Butthealliancedidissueastatementthat'Thesecountrieswillbecome
membersofNATO'.Ifso,theencirclementofRussiawouldbecomplete.NATO's
enlargementwasjustifiedintermsofthecreationofazoneofpeace.TheRussian'threat'
surfacedlater.

FromRussia'sposition,theexpansionofNATOposesaseriousthreattoitssecurity.The
enhancedsecurityoftheNewMemberStatesisatthecostoflesssecuritytoRussia.
Russiahasbeenreactiveanddefensiveratherthanactivelyaggressive.Thepolicyofthe
RussianFederationunderPutinandMedvedeventailedamajorchangetowardstheWest
whichinfringedsomeestablishedWesternassumptions.InitsForeignPolicyConcept
(2000),Russia'sobjectivesweretopreservethesovereigntyandterritorialintegrityofthe
country.Itnotedcritically'agrowingtrendtowardstheestablishmentofaunipolarstructure
oftheworldwiththeeconomicandpoliticaldominationoftheUnitedStates.'

PolicydidnotseektooverturnthehegemonyoftheUSAortheneo-liberalframeworkin
whichitoperated.Itdoesnotentaileconomicautarchyorpoliticalisolation.Russiasought
analliancewiththeUSAinitswar'onterror'-withhisownconcernsaboutChechniain
mind-andallowedUSplanestouseRussianairspacetoflytoAfghanistan.Russiavoted
tosupporttheUNSecuritycouncil'ssanctionsagainstIran.Evenin2002,Russiawas
pragmaticabouttheadmissionoftheBalticstatesintoNATO.Russiaalsoabstainedfrom
votingontheUNSecurityCouncilresolutionauthorisingtheuseofforceagainstthe
QaddafiregimeinLibyain2011.

TheEuropeanUnion

ThesecondmajorchallengefacingthestatesoftheformerUSSRwastheenlargementof
theEuropeanUniontoincludethepost-SovietcountriesofcentralEurope.Itsinitial
objective(bearinginmindthehistoryoftwoworldwars)wastopreservepeaceinEurope
bycontainingpossibleaggressionbyenvelopingnationstateswithinacommoneconomic
unit,theEuropeanEconomicCommunity.TheleadershipoftheEUjustifiedenlargementas
bringingnotonlyeconomicwealthbutalsodemocraticEuropeanvalues.Thedevelopment
ofasupra-nationalstate,theEuropeanUnion,hasoutgrowntheoriginalconceptionand
hasimperialpretentions.Itisnoweffectivelyafederalstatecomposedof28'member
states',includingelevenpostcommuniststates[7].Itsmembershipmakesitaneconomic
counterparttoNATO.

AstheEuropeanCommissioner,JoseManuelBarrosoon10July2007putit:'Wearea
veryspecialconstructionuniqueinthehistoryofmankind.SometimesIliketocomparethe
EUasacreationtotheorganisationofempire.Wehavethedimensionofempire.Whatwe
haveisthefirstnon-imperialempire.Wehave27countriesthatfullydecidedtowork
togetherandtopooltheirsovereignty.Ibelieveitisagreatconstructionandweshouldbe
proudofit'[8].Here,inperhapsanunguardedmoment,heraisesthespectreofthe
EuropeanUnionasanempire,andthisviewhasledmanytodefineitintermsofcultural
andeconomicimperialism.

Membershiprequiresthesubordinationofsovereigntyofmemberstatestoacommon
economic,politicalandsocialpolicyframedintermsofneo-liberalismandcompetitive
electoralpolyarchy.Insuchaunion,formalwarsbetweenmemberstatescannottake
place.InkeepingwiththeinstitutionalarrangementsoftheEU,newstateshadtoconform
to31chapters(35since2013)oftheAcquiswhichrangeoverthewholeareaofeconomic
andpoliticallife.ForeignanddefencepolicymustalsobeinkeepingwithEUnormsand
policy.Asacustomsunion,theEUhascommontariffswithoutsiders.Thedrivingforces
forexpansionareeconomicinterestsseekingmarkets(forproductsandlabour)aswellas
geo-politicalconcerns.

TheCaseofUkraine

AfterthedismantlingoftheUSSR,Ukrainefounditselfpositionedbetweentwoblocs-the
stronglyentrenchedEUandtheweakassociationformedbytheCommonwealthof
IndependentStates.Asshowninthetwofollowingdiagrams,commercewasgreater
betweenRussiathantheEuropeanUnion.

UkrainiangovernmentshavesoughtagreementswiththeEUwhichwouldnotprejudice
relationswithitsmajortradingpartner,Russia.ThingsbegantochangeaftertheOrange
RevolutionwhichbroughttopowerPresidentYushchenko.Theleadersoftheproposed
EurasianUnionsoughttomaintainandenhancelinkswithUkrainewhichwouldhave
precludedUkrainefromjoiningtheEU.Intheautumnof2013theEU,tocounterEurasian
influence,offeredUkraineanassociationagreement(DeepandComprehensiveFreeTrade
Area(DCFTA)).TobeeffectivetheagreementwouldhaveextendedtheEU'stariffsto
Ukraine'sbordersandconsequentlywouldhavegreatlyrestrictedtradewiththeCIS.

TheDCFTApresentedUkrainewithachoice.ItwascontendedbytheEUthattwosetsof
rulescouldnotoperateintheEUeconomicspace[9].Russianpolicy,basingtheargument
oncommonmembershipoftheWTO,contendedthatboththeEUandtheEurasianUnion
wouldbeableforgeawiderpan-Europeanassociation.SergeiLavrov,theRussianForeign
Ministersuggestedthatbothblocscouldworktogether.'Wemustworkforaunionof
unions,anallianceoftheEUandtheEurasianUnion'[10].

TheEU'sobjectivewastoprepareUkraineforfullmembership(atsomeunspecifiedfuture
date).Moreover,evenwithoutbecomingamemberoftheEU,agreementsbetweenitand
otherstateswereincreasinglyembeddedinconditionswhichsoughttomaketheir
institutionsandprocessescompatiblewithEUnorms.Theseconditionsweredefinedin
termsofWashingtonConsensusideology-freemarkets,privateproperty,theruleoflaw
(particularlyconcerningproperty),multi-partypoliticsandelectoralcompetition.EUstrategy
istoweakengraduallythesovereigntyofstatesandtopromotethepoweroftheUnionover
its'memberstates'.TheEasternPartnershipwasadevicetoextendthepoweroftheEU
overthirdparties,thistimedrivenbythegeo-politicalinterestsoftheEUandconsistentwith
AmericanpowerwieldedthroughNATO.Theobjectivesweretobeachievedthrough
enlargement.

NegotiationsbetweenPresidentYanukovichandtheEuropeanUnionwereconductedon
thebasisoftheDCFTA.WhileYanukovichdidnotruleoutsigningtheagreementatsome
futuredate,on29November2013,heexpressedawishtoachieveanagreementwhich
wouldmaintainrelationswithRussia.FutureanticipateddamagetoUkrainianproducers
(supportingYanukovich),insufficientEUfinancialbackingforeconomicreforms,aswellas
promisedRussianfinancialsupportunderlayhisdecisiontowithdrawfromtheEU
proposal.

ThisbecamethefusefortheMaidandemonstrationsinfavourofEUmembership
supportedonthestreetsinpersonbysomeprominentUSandEuropeanpoliticians.EU
madeUkrainechoose,whenYanukovichdidnottaketherightdecision,theEUsupported
theoppositionoftheMaidantomakethedecision.Thedemonstrationturnedtoviolence
andthePresident'sandParliament'sbuildingswereoccupiedbythearmedopposition.The
EUsupportedthethenopposition(whichhadrefusedtoparticipateinagovernmentwhen
offeredpostsinit).Theirgoalwastoinstallthepro-EUoppositionforces.President
YanukovichfledforhislifefromKievon22February2014.Thecontextofarmeduprising,of
intimidationofpro-YanukovichdeputiesintheRadaandaswellastheillegalseizureof
powerleadsonetodefinethechangeofpoliticalpowerasacoupd'tatlegitimatedby
massdemonstrations.

FollowingtheflightofPresidentYanukovich,anewpro-EUnationalistgovernmentwas
installed.OntheonesideitsignedagreementswiththeEU,ontheotheritwasconfronted
bythesecessionofCrimeaandcivilwarintheeasternterritories.

WesternmediaexplaintheunderlyingcausesofUkraine'sbreak-upasaconsequenceof
Putin'spolicies.Suchaninterpretationofevents,derivedmainlyfromstatementsoriginating
intheKievproEuropeanUnionlobbiesandgovernment,canbedismissedorqualifiedin
manyrespects.

ThereisnoevidencebeforetheputschreplacingtheYanukovichgovernmentinUkraine
thatthepolicyoftheRussianFederationwastodestabilisethecountry.Duringthistimethe
Russianminoritysufferedlanguagediscrimination.IntheperiodfollowingtheOrange
Revolutionof2004,inwhichtheadministrationofYushchenkomovedclosertotheEU,as
wellastheperiodinwhichtheYanukovichadministrationintendedtosignanassociation
agreementwiththeEU,therewerenoactionsfromRussiadestabilisingUkraine.The
economicconsequences,however,mighthavehadadestabilisingeffect.Indeed,therewas
nodesignationbythemediaofa'corrupt'PresidentYanukovichwhenhewaspredisposed
tosigntheassociationagreement.

TheUkrainiancivilwarwasprecipitatedbytheillegalremovalofYanukovichandhis
governmentfollowingtheputschofFebruarywhichinstalledagovernmenthostileto
Yanukovich'ssupportersconcentratedintheindustrialRussianspeakingeastofthe
country.Theirinitialactions,particularlyrescindingthelanguagelaws,whichhadgiventhe
righttoregionsundercertainconditionstousetheRussianlanguage,strengthenedthe
separatistswhoassertedtheirownpowerinCrimeaandledtoarevoltinDonbassand
Lugansk.

These'anti-Kiev'movementsweresupportedbytheRussianFederationbuttheywerenot
partofaplannedpolicyto'destabilise'Ukraine.Ukrainebecamedestabilisedbytheactions
ofthepro-EUinsurgentswhohadillegallyreplacedtheelectedPresidentwithActing
PresidentAlexTurchinov.DespiteWesterninsistenceonRussianmilitaryinvolvement,
thereisnofirmevidenceoftheinvolvementoftheRussianarmy(thoughtherecertainly
were,andare,volunteers)ineastUkraineinarmedcombatroles.OnJan292015,the
headoftheGeneralStaffoftheUkrainianArmy,GeneralViktorMuzhenko,statedthat"only
individualRussianmilitarypersonnelandcitizensoftheRussianFederation"are
participatinginmilitaryactivities."Wearenotcurrentlyconductinganymilitaryoperations
againstunitsoftheregularRussianarmy."[11]SuchunofficialRussianinvolvementis
considerableandhasbeendecisiveinmaintainingtheseparatists.Itisnothoweverpartof
apreconceivedRussian'plan'todestabiliseUkraineandNATO.

TheofficiallineofnewlyelectedPresidentPoroshenkowastopursuewarbyallmeans.As
heputitinhisstatementof14November2014:"We[inUkraine]willhaveworkthey-[in
Donbas]won't.Wewillhavepensions-theywon't.Wewillcareforourchildrenand
pensioners-theywon't.Ourchildrenwillgotoschool,tokindergartens-theirchildrenwill
sitincellars.Theydon'tknowhowtoorganizeordoanything.This,ultimately,ishowwe
willwinthiswar."[12]Herepeatedhisobdurateprincipleson22January2015:'Ukraine
mustremainaunitarystatetherewillbe"nodiscussion"ofUkraine'sEuropeanchoiceand
theonlystatelanguageisandwillbeUkrainian'.[13]

AMilitaryThreat?

NATO'sexpansiontotheeastwaslegitimatedinthefirstinstanceasameanstosecurean
areaofpeaceinEurope,notasanecessarydefencemechanismagainstanaggressive
Russia.However,followingtheUkrainecrisis,viewschanged.AndersRasmussen,NATO's
previoussecretary-general,saidinJanuary2015thattherewasa'highprobability'thatMr
PutinwouldtestNATO'sarticle5,whichregardsanattackonanymemberasanattackon
all.On20February2015,NATO'sdeputycommanderopinedthatRussia'sexpansionist
ambitionscouldbecome'anobviousexistentialthreattoourwholebeing'.(ReportedinThe
Guardian21Feb.15).

Thegeo-politicalgoalsofstrengtheningthehegemonyofNATOunderpinthispolicy.The
Russianmilitary'threat'isanassertionabout'motives'andisnotbasedempiricallyonany
assessmentofmilitarycapacity.Russiaasamilitarythreatisillustratedbycommentators
bythefactthatitsdefencespendinghasrisenby190percentbetween2007and2014,
whereasNATO'shasfallenbysome20percent(TheEconomist,14Feb2015,p.20).

Russia'sdefenceexpenditurehasincreasedinrecentyears.Buttheincreasewasfroma
lowbase.Giventhesizeofpopulationandtheeconomiclevelofthecountry,comparatively
itsdefenceexpenditurepercapitaisnotexcessivelylarge.Intotaloutlays,Russiais
outmatchedineveryareaofdefencespendingbyNATO.In2014,accordingtostatistics
providedintheTheMilitaryBalance[14],defencebudgetsforRussiawasjustover10per
centmorethanthatoftheUK.ItsdefenceeffortsarecomparabletoWesternEuropean
NATOcountries.Plannedexpenditure(2015)forUSAis581billionUSdollarsChina129.4
Russia70UK61.8France53.1Germany43.9.Asaproportionofstatebudgets(datafor
2014),theUSAaccountedfor36.1percent,Russia4.4percent,UK3.8percent,France
3.3percent,Germany2.7percent,otherNATOcountries7.6percent.China8percent
andJapan3percent.

NATO'sweaponryisalsogreaterinallareasthanRussiaandEurasia,onlyChinahas
morebattletanksthanNATO.Atellingcomparativeindicatoristheamountspentexpressed
asaproportionofworlddefenceandsecurityspendingwhichisshowninFigure3.If
armaments'spendingisthecriterion,thenexpenditureisverymuchweightedtowardsthe
WestwithNATOgreatlyoutspendingitsrivals.Ofcourse,Russiaisanuclearpowerand
certainlymorethanamatchforitsimmediateneighboursbutnotforNATO.

Itispurespeculation(probablymotivatedtojustifyNATO'smilitaryrole)tosuggestthat
PutinisplanningtotestNATO'sresolve.Despitethedenialofcitizenshiprightstoa
significantpartofRussianspeakingpeoplebornandlivinginLatviaandEstonia,Russia
sincetheBalticsgainedindependence,hasshownnointentionorwillingnesstosupportthe
Russianminoritiesbytheuseofforce.

TheenlargementoftheEUandNATOaredangerousiftheythreatenwarbetweenRussia
andUkraine.AfundamentalvalueoftheEUistosecurepeaceandtherearewaysofdoing
thiswithoutexpandingtheUnion.Itisunjustifiablehypocrisytoadvocatepeaceand
knowinglytopursuepolicieswhichthreatentoleadtowar.Clearlyalternativestrategies
wereavailabletotheEU.ButtheywereignoredastheentrapmentofUkraineintheEUwas
amajorobjectiveofEUpolicy.EUenlargementandNATOexpansionaregreaterthreatsto
peacethantheRussianFederation.

ThisarticleisbasedontwopubliclecturesgiveninLeidenUniversityandalsoinGreenwich
University.

[returntoContents]

#28
RussiaBeyondtheHeadlines
www.rbth.ru
December22,2015
Russiaavoidsrevolutionagain
NaysayersarekeentopredictRussia'sdemise,butdespiteadifficultyearpoliticallyand
economically,thecountryhasfailedtofallapart.
ByBryanMacDonald
BryanMacDonaldisaMoscow-basedcommentator.

Foratleastthepastdecade,everyyearsomeexpertinsideoroutsideofRussiahas
predictedthatthecountrywilleruptinrevolution,oratleastthatitisripefor"regime
change."Numerousbooksandarticlesarepublishedannuallyspecializinginforecastsof
imminentdoomfortheKremlin.

Startingin2014analystsbegantolookforsignsofthisrevolutioninthecountry'seconomic
troubles.Lastyear,BritishPrimeMinister,DavidCameron,spokeof"turn(ing)theratchet"
onVladimirPutinandsuggestedthatWesternsanctionswould"permanently"damage
Russia'sfinancialhealth.

Thistrendonlycontinuedin2015.InJanuary,U.S.PresidentBarackObamadeclaredthe
Russianeconomy"intatters"andinSeptember,CNNreportedthatRussia'seconomywas
"failing."Justthismonth,oppositionfigureMikhailKhodorkovskywarnedthatarevolutionis
"inevitable"inRussia.

However,despitethewarnings,thecountrysomehowmanagestogoon.

Whatrevolution?

In2015,therewerenumerouspotentialtriggersforapoliticalbreakdown.Themurderof
prominentoppositionvoiceBorisNemtsovincentralMoscowinFebruarywasone.It
producedprevailingsadnessatthehorribleendofthispublicfigure,butlittleelse.
Anotherflashpointcouldhavebeenthiswinter'sprotestsbylong-haultruckers,whichhave
threatenedtoblockmajorroadsacrossthecountry.Butsofartheirdispleasurehas
remainedconfinedtoasmalldisruptionoftrafficonMoscow'sringroadandaverycalm
meetingwithpolice.

TheblackoutofCrimeamighthavesparkedrestlessnessonthepeninsula,whichRussia
absorbedlastyear,buttherewashardlyapeepofvitriolagainstMoscow.

ThepublicationofdocumentsbynewspaperNovayaGazetaandoppositionactivistAlexei
NavalnyaccusingProsecutorGeneralYuriChaika'sfamilyofbeinginvolvedindeep-seated
corruptioncouldhavecausedsomerage.Chaika'ssonhasbeenlinkedtothemafiaand
reportedlyownsexpensivehomesinSwitzerlandandGreece.Thegeneralpublic,however,
seemstoacceptofficialreassurancesthatChaikahimselfisnotinvolvedinanyillegalacts
andtheinvestigationistheproductofdirtypoliticalintrigues.

Thenthereisthecurrencycrisis.Lastyear,adollarwaswortharound35rublesnowit's
around70.ManyRussianshavelostmuchoftheirsavings.Opportunitiestotravelabroad
havebeensnatchedawayandimportedgoodshavemoreorlessdoubledinprice.Inflation
standsataround19percentand6millionpeopleareexpectedtofalloutofthemiddle
class,whichhasbeenthemainstayofPutin'spersonalpopularitythenumberofRussians
livingbelowthepovertylinehasrisento14percent.

Adifferentreality

Andyetnoneoftheseissueshasprovokedcomprehensiveprotestsorpopularresistance
tothegovernment.Instead,recentopinonpolldatafromtheanalyticalLevadaCenter
showsthat,ratherthanhurtlingintodisarray,Russiaisactuallyprettystable.Morethan80
percentofRussiansbelievethatRussiancitizenshipispreferabletoanyother,andtwo-
thirdsconsiderthemselves"free'."Fifty-sevenpercenthopetoseePutinre-electedto
anotherpresidentialtermin2018.

Thereasonsforsuchcalmareprettyelementary.Firstly,themixedresultsofUkraine's
revolutionandthedramaticcollapseinlivingstandardstherehasspookedRussians.They
genuinelyfearthatviolentupheavalcouldleadtoarepeatofthechaosofthe1990s.

Anotherproblemistheweaknessoftheliberalopposition.Sure,theKremlinmakeslife
toughforitsopponents.StateTVdoesn'tacknowledgethemtoagreatextentandofficial
newspaperslargelyignorethem.However,theInternetisopen,andliberalDozhdTVand
EkhoMoskvyradioallowsoppositionfigurestoexpresstheirviews.Butthemainobstacle
istheirlackofunityandthedeepfracturesintheliberalmovement,inadditiontoalackofa
clearleaderandaspecificpolicyplatform.

Instead,theoppositionoffershopesanddreamswithnotangibleexplanationsofhowthey
mightactuallyworkandwhowoulddirectthepolicies.Furthermore,leadingpersonalities,
withtheexceptionofNavalnyandafewothers,seemtospendmoretimecourtingforeign
attentionthandomesticaudiences.

ThenthereisPutin'sgenuinepersonalpopularityandabeliefthat,nomatterhowbadthings
arepresently,Russiahasimprovedimmenselyduringthe15yearsthathehasbeenin
power.

ManyRussianswhospendtimeabroadspeakofalmostenteringaparalleluniversewhen
theycompareWesternmediacoverageofRussiaandtheirownpracticalexperiencesat
home.MostRussianswouldneverclaimtheircountryisperfectbyanymeasure,butthey
dolargelybelievethatforeignimpressionsofRussiaarefartoonegative.Withoutquestion,
thesearechallengingtimesinRussia,butthepeoplearealreadyaccustomedtoupheaval
anddon'tseemtobepanicing.Therevolutionhasbeenpostponed.Again.

[returntoContents]

#29
MoscowTimes
October21,2015
WestHasLosttheRighttoLecturePutin
ByMarkGaleotti
MarkGaleottiisprofessorofglobalaffairsatNewYorkUniversity.

Whileathome,PresidentVladimirPutinistheworld-bestridingcolossus,wisetsarand
benevolentfatherofthenation,abroadheisonceagainfacingafamiliarvilification,as
warmonger,kleptocratandtyrant.Yes,corruptionisdeeplyembeddedinRussia's
economicandpoliticalsystems,andtheKremlinregardsmilitaryforceasaninstrumentof
nationalinterest.ButtheWestneedstoavoidsimpleandmisleadingstereotypesifitisto
constructeffectivepoliciestodealwithRussia,especiallywhenitcomestoitsSyrian
gambit.

Ofcourse,Russia'sinvolvementinSyriaembarrassedaboveallWashington.Sofar
Russia'sairstrikeshaveestablishedMoscow'sclaimstobetakenseriouslyasaglobal
power,anddonesoinawaydemonstratingnotjustmilitarypowerbutalsoruthlesswill.

ButWesterncomplaintsaboutRussianactions-aboveallPutin's-alsorevealadangerous
hypocrisy.

"RussiahasnomandatetobeinSyria."Howeverunpleasant,BasharAssad'sisstillthe
internationallyrecognizedgovernmentofSyria-withanembassyinWashington-andthey
invitedRussianassistance.IfanythingitisTurkey,theU.S.andtheotherbelligerentswho
actuallyhavenomandate,anditwouldbeastretchtoportraytheiractionsasdirectly
humanitarian.

Tobesure,iftheAssadregimefellitmightbereplacedbyonelessbrutalandmore
legitimate.Butthenagain,experiencesofothermilitaryregimechangesinNorthAfricaand
theMiddleEastsuggestthattheresultcouldjustaseasilybechaosandextremistterror.

"TheRussiansarebombingthe'wrong'rebels."Apartfromthefactthatmanyofthe
"moderaterebels"toutedasSyria'sgreathopearenotthatmoderate,Moscowmakesno
bonesaboutthefactthatitistryingtopreservetheAssadregime,oneofitsfewallies.
IslamicStateforcesaremoreheavilyconcentratedinthenortheastofthecountry,the
regimeinthewestandthesouth.Nowondermostoftheairstrikestargettherebelsposing
adirectandimmediatethreattoDamascus.

"Moscowisacting'dangerously,'potentiallybringingRussianandWesternjetsintoclose
proximity."Yes,thereisafaintrisk,especiallyastheRussiansaremoreaggressivethan
Syrianpilots.Forexample,eveniftheirincursionsintoTurkishairspacewereindeed
accidental,astheyclaimed,thentheycertainlymusthavebeenprettycloseforsucha
mistaketohappen.ButgiventhatU.S.andalliedaircrafthavelesslegalrighttobeinSyrian
airspace,istheonusnotonthemto"deconflict"?

OfcoursetheRussiansareinSyriaforthemostself-interestedofreasons,nottoprotect
Syriancivilians,norprimarilyanally,buttodistractadomesticaudiencefromstalematein
theDonbassandforcetheWesttodealwiththem.TheSyrianregimeisbrutaltothepoint
ofevil,andjustbecausetheIslamicStatemaybeworse,Putinhasnoseriousmoral
justification.

Butsincewhenhasself-interestbeenanoveltyingeopolitics?

HowdoesfuelingalengthyandviciousproxywaragainstbothAssadandtheIslamicState
helpordinarySyrians,though,especiallywhensomanyoftheWest'salliesinthis
campaign,fromTurkeytoSaudiArabia,haveserioushumanrightsproblemsoftheirown?

Thisisnotsimple"whataboutism,"thatclassictrickofdeflectingcriticismthroughraising
theotherside'srealorallegedflaws.RatheritistonotethatWashingtoniscurrently
seekingtohaveitscakeandeatit.Itcanchoosetobaseitsforeignpolicyonstrictmoral
principlesorgeopoliticalpragmatism.

Atpresent,itseemshappytoactpragmaticallybutthinkmorally.Thusitgenuinely
considersPutinnotsimplyanantagonist,butanimmoralone.

Thisisdangerousandfoolish.JustasPutin'sRussiacannotsimplybewrittenoffasa
kleptocracy-roadsarestillbeingbuilt,universitiesfunded,andsoforth,evenwhilesome
plunder-sotooitisnotsomeuniquelyaggressive"roguestate."Castigatingitonmoral
grounds,withoutbehavinginanunimpeachablymoralway,issimplygoingtoalienate
Moscow,undermineWesterncredibility,andcreateawhollyfalseseriesofassumptionson
whichtobasepolicy.

TheuncomfortabletruthisthatinSyria,asinsomanyotherways,Putinissimplyruthlessly
exploitingandexpandingprecedentsalreadysetbytheWest.

[returntoContents]

#30
Journalitico
http://journalitico.com
March8,2015
TheProblemWithPropaganda
ByDanielleRyan
Reporter,TheSundayBusinessPost(Ireland).DanielleisanIrishjournalistandblogger.
ShehasadegreeinBusinessandGermanfromTrinityCollegeDublinandstudiedpolitical
reportingattheWashingtonCenterforPoliticsandJournalisminWashington,DC.

Whatispropaganda?

Isitthedeliberateexclusionofcrucialinformationinanattempttomislead?Isitthe
deliberateinclusionofinformationinanattempttoconfuse?Isitadeliberateattemptnot
necessarilytomislead,buttoputforthaperspectivewhichdiffersfromthemainstream?Is
itsimplyoutrightlying?

Orisitalloftheabove?

IsitheretryingtoidentifyonemainstreamnewspaperorbroadcasterthatIcould
legitimatelyandconfidentlyarguedoesnotengageinthiselusivephenomenonwecall
'propaganda'-byanyoftheabovedefinitions.

Icallit'elusive'becausenooneseemstohavesettledthedebateonitsmeaning-orat
least,iftheyhave,it'snotthemeaningtheyareusinginpractice.

Inthisso-called'informationwar'between'theWest'andRussiaoverthecrisisinUkraine,
asimple,butdangerousdefinitionseemstohavedeveloped:Propagandaisthe
disseminationofinformationthatprovidesanylegitimacytotheargumentsoftheenemy.

Thatappearstobetheacceptedmeaningofthewordintoday'sgeopoliticalclimate.The
interestingthingaboutthisdefinitionisthatthetruenessorfalsenessoftheinformationin
questionisirrelevant.Ifitlegitimizestheothersideinanyway,itispropaganda.

Neithersidewilladmitthatthisisthedefinitiontheyareusing,ofcourse.Thatwould
undoubtedlydamagetheircredibility.Instead,bothsideswillsticktothemantrathat
propagandasimplymeansthedeliberatedistributionof'lies'andwillclaimthattheyare
fightingagainstthoseliarswiththeirincontrovertible'truth'.

Thatmakesbothsidesfeelbetter,andmorejustified.Peoplewanttobelievetheycan
'know'thingsintheirentirety.Tonotbeabletograspthecomplexitiesoftheworldmakesus
feeloutofcontrol.

Butinusingthisdefinitionofpropagandaas'anythingtheenemysays'weareleftin
somewhatofaconundrumwhenitcomestounravelingthe'truth'.

WhenRussiaputsforwarditsargumentsandtheyareechoedbyjournalistsoranalysts
whoaresympathetictothosearguments,forwhateverreason,thosewritersare
immediatelybrandedas'Kremlintrolls'orpropagandistsforVladimirPutin.

Similarly,whentheWestputsforthitsarguments,theyaredismissedbyRussianpressas
'anti-Russianpropaganda'.

So,whoisright?Whichinformationis'propaganda'andwhichisn't?Isitsimplyall
propaganda?Dobothsideshavelegitimatearguments?Isonesidemore'right'thanthe
other?Andhowcanweknow,ifeverypieceofinformationthatconflictsfromthe
mainstreamgetslabeledaspropaganda,regardlessifitsoriginoritsfactualaccuracy?

Toansweranyofthosequestions,wewouldneedanaccepteddefinitionfortheword,with
whichwecouldevaluateeveryscrapofinformationpresentedbybothsidesandcomeup
withanobjective'truth'.

Whatareouroptions?

TheOxfordEnglishDictionarydefinespropagandaas:"information,especiallyofabiased
ormisleadingnature,usedtopromoteapoliticalcauseorpointofview".

CateHaste,inTheMachineryofPropaganda,definesitas"thetaskofcreatingand
directingpublicopinion".

TheRandomHousedictionarydefinesitas"information,ideas,orrumorsdeliberately
spreadwidelytohelporharmaperson,group,movement,institution,nation,etc."

Intheirbook,AgeofPropaganda,AnthonyPratkanisandElliotAronsonwritethat
propagandawas"originallydefinedasthedisseminationofbiasedideasandopinions,often
throughtheuseofliesanddeception"...butcontinuetosaythatthewordhassinceevolved
tomeanmass"suggestion"or"influence"throughthemanipulationofsymbolsandthe
psychologyoftheindividual.

Noneofthatisparticularlyhelpful,isit?

Thosedefinitionsdon'tansweranyoftheabovequestions.Alltheyrevealisthatbothsides
engageinserious,no-holds-barredpropagandaefforts,whichwealreadyknew.

Atthispoint,ifwehavenoaccepteddefinition-andifdefinitionsareuselessanyway-it
comesdowntodecidingwhatourgoalisinusingtheterm.

Ifourgoalistodiscredittheothersideinadebate,wewillhappilyuseanyoftheabove
definitions,failingtorecognizewhentheycanbeappliedtoourselves.

Ifthegoalhowever,istocometoanuancedunderstandingofwhatishappeninginUkraine,
wewouldbelessinclinedtousethewordatall,atleastnotsoflippantly.

Wewouldrecognizethatdefiningeverythingthatgoesagainstourownperceivedbest
interestsas'propaganda'isitselfaformofpropaganda-onethatwon'tresultinany
progresswhatsoever.

Itwillsimplyleavebothsidesinstalemate.

Inotherwords,propagandaworks,butaccusingsomeoneofusingittomaskyourownbias
isgenerallyuseless,ifyourintentionistomakeanyrealprogress.It'sourstaggering
propensitytodojustthatwhichhasbeenoneof,ifnotthebiggesthindrancetodiplomatic
progressonUkraine.

Atthispoint,Ican'tconcealthefactthatIbelievetheWesternsidehasbeentheworse
offenderinthis.

WhentheUSStateDepartmentflingsthe'propaganda'grenadeattheKremlineverytimeit
hearsacounter-argument,theyareeffectivelyrelievingthemselvesoftheresponsibilityto
think.Theyaredemonstratinghowentrenchedtheyhavebecomeintheirpositionsand
showingusthattheyhavenointentionofbudging.

Theyareentirelyunreceptivetothelegitimateconcernsofthosewithadifferent
perspective.Theyhavedemonstratedthattheywilldonothingtoalleviatethefearsofa
nationthatfeelsunderthreat-andhaveengagedinamassiveinformationcampaignto
discreditthosefearsasnonsense.

GiventhehistoryofthelastfifteenyearsandthenumerousUSforeignpolicymistakes
legitimizedthroughgroupthink,thatentrenchmentshouldbeworrying.

Battlingcognitivedissonance

Ifwe,asconsumersofnewsandasjournalists,failtoproperlyscrutinizethat,werunthe
riskofsimilarlybarricadingourselvesbehindourin-builtbiasesbecauseitmakesusfeel
stronger-andlook,somanypeopleagree,wemustberight.
Humanstendtobelievethattheargumentstheyhavechosen-basedontheirownself-
interest,astheybestunderstandit-arealsothebestthingfortheworldatlarge.Tobelieve
anythingelse,formostpeople,wouldseemillogical.

Ashumans,wealsogenerallydon'tenjoytheunpleasantnessofcognitivedissonance,so
wetrytoavoidit.Wedon'twanttohavetodealwithtoomuchconflictinginformation.We've
pickedasideinanargumentandthat'stheendofit.

Thisleadstowhatpsychologistscall'motivatedreasoning',wherebywewillcherry-pick
informationandsubconsciouslyeliminateanythingthatchallengesourargumenttoodeeply.

So,whatcanwedoaboutit?

Firstofall,thisnodoubt,isthepointatwhichyouwillaccusemeofbeingahypocrite.But
restassured,Iagreewithyou.Weallusemotivatedreasoning,andtotellourselveswe
don'tissimplyself-delusion.Theproblemis,someofuscanbetterrecognizewhenwe're
doingitandsomeofuscan't.

Forinstance,IcantellyouthatI'mdoingitrightnow.I'maskingyoutoreconsideryour
opinionandadoptsomethingsimilartomyown.That'stotallyhypocritical,isn'tit?Itis,butit
doesn'tmeanyoustillshouldn'tconsiderit.AndIshoulddothesame.

DrDavidRobertGrimes,asciencewriterandphysicistatOxfordUniversitywroteina
piecefortheIrishTimeslastyear,thatratherthanviewingconflictingconceptswith
apprehensionandcontempt,weshouldregardthemwiththe"exhilarationofdiscovery".

Admittedly,it'shighlydoubtfulthatanyonereadingthisisgoingtobe"exhilarated"atthe
prospectofchangingtheirmindonUkraine-aconflictwhichelicitssuchstrongemotion
fromsomany.Ihavealreadyoncechangedmymindonit-fromanentrenchedWestern
perspectivetodevelopingadeeperunderstandingandsympathytotheRussian
perspective.I'msureothershavegoneintheoppositedirection.

Itwasnotanexhilaratingprocess.

AnaerialviewshowsIndependenceSquareduringclashesbetweenanti-government
protestersandInteriorMinistrymembersandriotpoliceincentralKiev

Grimesalsowroteinhispiece:

"Thereisnothingwrongwithbeingwrong,providedwearewillingtoadaptourviewsinthe
lightofevidenceandconstantlyrevisethem.Black-and-whitethinkingcanbechallengedby
noticingthattherearemorethanjustbinarypositionsonissuesorpeople,andaspectrum
liesbetweenthoseextrema.

"Thebladeofcorrectionshouldcutbothwaysweshouldaimtospotreasoningflawsnot
onlyintheargumentsofothersbutalsoinourownlogic,evenwhenthisjarsus."

Theinabilityofourleaders-andmoredisappointingly,ourjournalists,todothis,isexactly
whynotmuchprogresshasbeenmadeinUkraine.

Journalists,bytheirverynature,strivetounderstandtheworld.It'swhattheydo.Theyare
interestedandcurious.Theylivebyaskingquestionsinthehopethatthey'llfindanswers.
Individualjournalistsareveryrarelytryingtobe'propagandists'orliarsforanyone.

Unfortunately,theyarealsohuman-andthat'swhereitgetscomplicated.Theworldistoo
complextounderstandinitsentirety,sotheyhavetofocusonlittlenuggetshereandthere.
Andifthe'otherside'islyingoutright-asbothsometimesdo-weshout'Look,theother
sideislying!'becauseitmakesusfeelgood.

Itvalidatesusandallowsustofeeljustifiedinnotadmittingthatmaybewehavedoneit,too.
Thatmaybewehavenotalwaysbeenasrightandnobleaswedesperatelywanttobelieve
wehave.Thatmaybeifwecanfocusonthe'lies'oftheotherside,wecanstaymore
dedicatedtothe'truth'andthattoomakesusfeelgood.

WeareroutinelybombardedwithstoriesaboutUkraineandRussiathatdon'tgiveusthefull
picture.Eachauthorwillomitinformationtheyfeelisnotrelevantorcrucial.Butwhatis
crucialtoonesidemayseeminconsequentialtotheother.It'salljournalism,andbythe
definitionsusedearlier,yes,it'sall'propaganda'.

Buttherehastobearightandwrong,doesn'tthere?

Rightandwrongoftenexistonlyinsofaraspeople'sperceptionsofasituationallowthem
tounderstandit-andlikeitornot,thisisalotaboutperception.

Bothsidesmustbechallengedrelentlessly-withevidence,incontrovertiblefactand
perhapsmostimportantly,adecent,honestattempttounderstandotherhuman
perspectives.

Bothsideshavefailedatthis,butIbelievetheWesternsidehasfailedworse,astheysay.

Itdoesn'thelptolabelRussiansasblinddogs,theentireRussianmediaaspropagandists
andVladimirPutinasanevildictatorthatwouldgiveAdolfHitlerarunforhismoney.That's
acop-outandquitefrankly,it'slazy.

Themainstreamviewisfrequentlytheviewthatneedsmostrigorouschallenging,because
ithasoftenachievedthatprevalencethroughgroupthinkandaformofWesternpropaganda
thatismoreinsidioussimplybecauseitisoftennotrecognizedassuch.

TheprevailingmainstreamviewisthatRussiaiswrong,isaprovocateurandhas'invaded'
Ukraineundertheleadershipofan'expansionist'anddangerouspresident.Theminority
view-andtheoneIshare-isthatinfactNATOhasbeentheprovocateurandthattheUS
isleadingEuropetowardsinstabilitytosuititsownpurposes.

Thereisamisconceptionthattheprevailingviewisthecorrectview,simplybecauseso
manypeopleholdit.Thesecondmisconceptionisthatonesideisentirelyrightandone
sideisentirelywrong-andwithinthat,thethe'enemy's'sidehasonlybadintentions.

Ourleaderswoulddowelltoridthemselvesofbothmisconceptionsifanyprogressistobe
madeforthepeopleofEasternUkraine.

Fairytaleorreality?

InafascinatingpieceaboutthebordercityofNarva,Estonia-aplacewhichIjustrecently
passedthroughmyself-journalistMarkMacKinnonintroducesustoElviraNyman.

The77-year-oldgazesacrosstheNarvaRiver,whichseparatestheEstoniancityfrom
Russia,the"strongcountry".

Elviralivesinaworldthathasbeen"createdforher"byKremlin-controlledtelevision,
MacKinnonwrites.Inhermind,theWestholdstheblameforthecrisisinUkraine,Crimea
wasalwaysRussiaandPutinisaleadertoberespected.

Exceptthatthisisnotjustinhermind-it'saviewheldbyplentywhoaren't'underthe
influence'ofRussianTV-andit'saninsulttoputtheentirelifeexperienceofethnic
RussiansintheformerSovietRepublicsdowntosomefairytalewhichhasbeen
manufacturedfortheminMoscow.

TheRussianworldexists.ItisnotacreationofPutin'sRussiaasapreludetoan
expansionistadventure.Theirnarrativehasbeencreatedforthembyhistory-andTallinn-
controlledTVcoulddonomoretochangethatthanKremlin-controlledTVcouldtocreateit.

Inaround-aboutway,MacKinnonadmitsthislaterinthepiece.Hequotesarepresentative
ofNarva'smunicipalgovernment,whosaysit's"toosimple"toblameRussianTVforwhy
somanyinthecityfeelalienatedbytheEstonianstate.

"TheywonderwhythestreetsignsintheircityareonlyinEstonianwhenjust4percentof
residentscallittheirfirstlanguage,"hesays."Andtheyhatethesanctionsthatare
destroyingbusinesstieswiththeRussianFederationacrosstheriver."

Thesolutionisnottoapproachthesepeoplewithblindself-righteousnessandbatterthem
overtheheadwiththe"right"worldviewuntiltheyseesense.
 WesternpropagandaisnottheantidotetoRussianpropaganda.

Grimes,theOxfordphysicist,endedhispiecewiththisline:

"Weshouldfeelzeroshameinrevisingourpositionsinthelightofnewevidenceor
understanding.Thisishowprogressismade."

Ican'thelpbutthinkweallmightbebetteroffifwetrieditmoreoften.

[returntoContents]

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Subject:[SATMORNINGPOST/EST]UAhalts$3bnRUdebtrepayment....."HowBLDisappointedRUinUAandSY"[INTERESTING
READ].....RUBombingCutsLifelinetoSYCivilianAid.....PBRespondstoSYUNMeeting......KasparovEquatesPutinwithCorleone....Bush:
Puti...

---------Forwardedmessage----------
From:MartaBurachok<marta.burachok@gmail.com>
Date:Sat,Dec19,2015at8:35AM
Subject:Ukrainehalts$3bnRussiadebtrepayment-BBCNews
To:WalterZaryckyj<waz2102@caa.columbia.edu>

http://www.bbc.com/news/business-35132258

Ukrainehalts$3bnRussiadebtrepayment

AFPTensionsbetweenRussiaandUkrainehaveincludedargumentsovergassupplies

Ukrainewillnotrepaya$3bndebtowedtoRussiabythisweekend,claimingRussiahasrefusedtoaccept
 repaymenttermsalreadyofferedtootherinternationalcreditors.

ThemoratoriummeansthatUkraineislikelytodefaultonthedebt,whichisdueonSunday.

Inaddition,repaymentof$507mofUkrainiancommercialdebtheldbyRussianbankswillalsobehalted.

ThecountrieshavebeenatloggerheadssinceRussiaannexedCrimealastyear.

Ukraine'sPrimeMinister,ArsenyYatseniuk,saidUkrainehadimposedamoratoriumonthepaymentofa$3bn
eurobondheldentirelybyRussia,whichisduetomatureon20December.

Hedidnotsayhowlongthemoratoriumwouldlast.MoscowhadpreviouslysaiditwouldtakeUkrainetocourtifit
didnotpayontime.

Themoratoriumwillbeinplace"untiltheacceptanceofourrestructuringproposalsortheadoptionoftherelevant
courtdecision",MrYatseniuktoldhisgovernment.

"WearepreparedforcourtactionfromtheRussianside."

RelationsbetweenthetwocountrieshavebeentensesinceRussiaannexedtheCrimeanpeninsulain2014.

UkraineandtheWesthavealsoaccusedRussiaofarmingandaidingseparatistrebelsineasternUkraine,allegations
thatRussiahasdenied.

InNovember,RussianenergysupplierGazpromhaltedgassuppliestoUkraine.

OnWednesday,RussiasaiditwouldsuspendatradepactwithUkrainethatwouldexcludethecountryfromafree
tradezonethatincludesformerSovietcountriesfrom1January.

Ukrainesaiditis"readytopaytheprice"tojoinanEUfreetradezonefromthatdate.

----------Forwardedmessage----------
From:KL
Date:Sat,Dec19,2015at7:43AM
Subject:LookatLukashenko[Ed:Lukashenk(a)SeemstoUnderstandPutinBetterThanTrumpDoes]

To:

ttp://belarusdigest.com/story/how-belarus-disappointed-russia-ukraine-and-syria-24066

HowBelarusDisappointedRussiaInUkraineAnd
Syria
SiarheiBohdan18December2015
 NewUkrainianArmouredVehicleDesignedwithBelarusHelp.Image:UkraineMinistryofInternalAffairs
Minsk

consistentlyavoidssupportingMoscowinUkraineandSyria.Toputit
mildly.Afterall,on7December,UkrainianInternalMinisterAvakov
inauguratedthenewUkrainianarmouredvehicleVartadesignedin
cooperationwith"Belarusianengineers".

ItbecamejustonemoreofaseriesofexamplesofBelarus-Ukrainian
defencecooperation.Lateron,theBelarusianDefenceMinistry
deniedclaimsthatitsupportedRussia'spositioninthelatter'sdisputewithTurkey.

BelarusrisksestrangingitsRussianally,butnotbecauseitwantstoearnextramoneyin
UkraineorfromconservativeArabregimes.MinskstrivestoimproverelationswithRussia's
opponentsbecausetheKremlinhasshownitselfwillingtomakeradicalforeignpolicymoves.

KremlinTrash:BelarusianarmsforISIS
Lastweek,RussianpropagandaoutletEurasiaDailypublishedacommentarywiththe
eloquenttitleBelarusian'Neutrality'isHypocrisyonSpilledBlood.Itsummarisedaseriesof
articlesinwhichexpertsclosetotheKremlinaccusedBelarusofanti-Russianpoliciesin
UkraineandSyria.
WhenprominentRussianexpertscriticiseMinskinhalfadozenarticlesonEurasiaDailyit
meansthattheKremlinwantsitsBelarusianpartnertounderstandtheseriousnessofthe
accusations.TheleadingexpertonBelarusattheInstituteforStudiesofCISCountries,
AlexanderFadeev,pointedoutthatBelarussuppliedUkrainewithfuel,dual-usegoodsand
componentsforarmssystems.HeemphasisedthatMinskdiditnotonlyforeconomicbut
alsopoliticalreasons:inotherwords,toimproverelationswiththeWest.
LukashenkanotonlyearnsmoneyinUkrainebutalsosaystotheWest:Iamyours,don'tstagea
MaidaninBelarus
On11December,aRussianpoliticalanalystworkingattheprestigiousHigherSchoolof
EconomicscalledAndreiSuzdaltsevdevelopedthisideafurther.Accordingtohim,
LukashenkanotonlyearnsmoneyinUkrainebutalsosaystotheWest:Iamyours,don't
stageaMaidaninBelarus.
RussianpoliticalcommentatorEvgenySatanovskiearlieraccusedBelarusofworkingwith
TurkeyandQataragainstRussiaintheMiddleEast.NowhehastakenhiscriticismofMinskto
theextreme.Accordingtohim,whilepreviouslyRussia'sopponentsintheMiddleEast
QatarandUAEpurchasedarmsforISISinSerbiaandNorthKorea,nowtheydoitmostlyin
Minsk.Satanovskiunderlined,They[ISIS]aregoingtousetheseweapons.Whetheritwillbe
againstus[Russians],Syrians,Iraniansorcivilianswhotheymurderisasecondaryquestion.

CooperationwithUkraine:impossibletohide
RidiculousaccusationsofBelarussellingweaponstoISISwillnotfoolanybody.In,factitis
BelarusianpolicyinUkraineandnotSyriawhichenragesMoscow.AndevidenceofBelarus-
Ukrainiancooperationabounds.AyearagoitseemedthatBelarusmightmerelytake
advantageofthesituationtoearnsomemoneysupplyingUkrainewithwarmaterials.Now,
almosttwoyearsintotheDonbaswar,MinskcontinuestocooperatewithKyiv,provingthatthis
collaborationispartofBelarus'longer-termstrategyintheregion.
Kyiv-basedjournalistIhorTyshkevichhasrecentlypublishedinKhvyliaanewinvestigative
overviewofBelarus-Ukrainiancooperation.HebelievesthatthisyearBelarusianfirmscould
earnabout$90-$100mfrommilitary-relevantdeals(withoutfuel)inUkraine.
Somethingofthisbusinessisevident,liketheriseofBelarus'shareintheUkrainianaircraft
fuelmarketfrom0%beforethewarto45%,orstatisticaldataonbilateraltradewhichshow
transfersofnumerousgoodsforprobablemilitaryuse.

Indeed,whilein2014BelarussoldUkraine$5mworthof
Stugna-Panti-tankguidedmissile

aircraft,inthefirsthalfof2015thisfigureroseto$14.4m.In2015,KyivboughtfromBelarus
specialtrucksworth$1.7m,i.e.,therespectiveexportroseby210%comparedwith2014.
Manypossibleindicatorsofcooperationlackdirectevidence,yetlookconvincing.For
example,TyshkevichpointsoutthattheUkrainianarmyhasstartedtoreceivelargequantities
ofthenewanti-tankmissilesystemStugna.Ukraineproducesonlythemissileusedinthis
system,whiletherestisdeliveredbyMinsk-basedfirmPeleng.

WhyMinskrisksworkingwithKyiv
ThestatisticsshowthatthoughBelarushasearnedsomemoneyfromthesetransactions,this
aloneisnotenoughtobeworththeriskswhichtheseUkrainiandealsposetoBelarus-
Russianrelations.Minskisnotlookingformoney.
MinskstrivestomaintainandimproverelationswithopponentsofMoscowintheregionandbeyond
(firstofalltheEU)
TheRussianexpertsquotedabovegotitright:politicsdeterminesthebehaviourofBelarusian
government.Firstofall,Minskstrivestomaintainandimproverelationswithopponentsof
Moscowintheregionandbeyond(firstofalltheEU)becausethedevelopmentsinCrimea
andtheDonbashaveprofoundlyshockedit.Itisnotsurethatsomethingofthiskindcouldnot
happeninBelarusandislookingeverywhereforpartnerswhowouldhelppreventor,if
necessaryresist,suchaneventuality.

Atthesametime,BelarushasreachedthelimitsofitscooperationwithRussiaassetbythe
Kremlin.Inthefieldofmilitaryindustrialcooperation,Minskhassufferednumerous
disappointments.Forinstance,itsplanstoestablishjointlywithRussiaanassembly
productionofaircraftinBelarusintheearly2010sendedwithnothing.
Earlier,inthelate2000s,BelarusnegotiatedwiththeKremlinevenmorefar-reachingplans
forproducingtopdefenceproductsinBelarus.Amongthemwereshort-rangeballisticmissile
systems(Iskander),surface-to-airmissilesystems(Tor)andlaunchersformobile
intercontinentalballisticmissile(Topol).Tonoavail.

UkrainegivesBelarusmilitarytechnologies
MinskthenpubliclyturnedtoChinaforsomeoftheseopportunities,butalsotoUkraine,
especiallyafterCrimea.Interestingly,theBelarusiangeneralPiatroRahazheuskiwhohad
negotiatedwithMoscowpossibleBelarusianparticipationin
producingIskandersandTorslateronoptedtoworkwithUkrainians.
ThisformerDeputyDefenceMinisterofBelarusandlaterDeputyChairmanoftheState
MilitaryIndustrialCommitteeisnowthedirectoroftheBelarusianofficeoftheUkrainianMotor
SichCompany.MotorSichhasgivenBelarussomethingRussiadenied:theUkrainian
companyestablishedahelicoptersrepairfacilityinOrshaandplanstoextendit.
 UkrainehelpsBelaruswithexpertiseandtechnology,notonlyconcerningaviationbutalsotanksand
missiles
TyshkevichassertsthatUkrainehelpsBelaruswithexpertiseandtechnology,notonly
concerningaviationbutalsotanksandmissiles.RussianscholarSuzdaltsevonEurasia
Dailyagrees:"LukashenkaistryingtogetfromUkrainethearmswhichRussiatakinginto
accountthenotverytrustingrelationsbetweenMinskandMoscowcannotgivehim."
TyshkevichandSuzdaltsevassumethatUkrainiansmighthaveparticipatedindesigningthe
BelarusianPalanezmultiplelaunchrocketsystem.OfficiallyaBelarus-Chineseproduct,
PalanezshootsfurtherthantheChineseWS-2andWS-3systemswhichpresumablyserved
asprototypesforPalanez.SinceitsfirstpublicdemonstrationinMay,themediahas
speculatedaboutUkrainian(andRussian)involvementindesigningthisweapon.
Allinall,Belarus'contactswiththeUkrainianandArabregimesopposingRussiacannotbe
dismissedastheopportunisticpursuitofeasymoney.Minskdislikesthepoliciesofthe
currentRussiangovernmentwhichthreatentoredrawinternationalborders.Moreover,ithas
realisedthattheKremlintakesitsalliancewithBelarusforgrantedanddoesnotdealwithitas
apartner.

SiarheiBohdanisaResearchDirectorattheOstrogorskiCentre.Heisanalumnusofthe
BelarusStateUniversityandEuropeanHumanitiesUniversityinLithuania.

----------Forwardedmessage----------
From:MartaBurachok<marta.burachok@gmail.com>
Date:Sat,Dec19,2015at8:50AM
Subject:[HuffPost]RussianAirstrikesCutOffSyrians'LifelineToCrucialAid
To:WalterZaryckyj<waz2102@caa.columbia.edu>

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/russian-airstrikes-humanitarian-crisis-syria_5672ed64e4b0648fe3027fdb

RussianAirstrikesCutOffSyrians'LifelineTo
CrucialAid
Everyweek,webringyouoneoverlookedaspectofstoriesthatmadenewsinrecentdays.Didyounoticethe
mediaforgotallaboutanotherstory'sbasicfacts?Tweet@TheWorldPostorletusknowonourFacebook
page.

TheSyrianandRussianairforceshavepoundedasmallstripofrebel-controlledterritorynearSyriasborderwith
Turkeyinrecentweeks,inwhatcouldbeoneofthemostdecisivebattlesinSyriasnearlyfive-yearwar.

Itcouldalso,however,sparkanewhumanitariancrisisinthecountry.TheAzazcorridor,apassagewaythatis5to
15kilometerswideandrunsfromtheTurkishbordertotheSyriancityofAleppo,providesacriticallifelineforaid
andsuppliesforoverhalfamillionSyrians.Inrecentweeks,severalaidgroupshavebeenforcedtosuspendorscale
backoperationsintheareaafterairstrikeshitvehicleconvoysandcivilianinfrastructure.

ThisisthemainroutethroughwhichaidisbroughtintonorthernSyria,saidChristyDelafield,senior
communicationsofficerforhumanitarianaidgroupMercyCorps,whichhadtosuspendcross-borderaidmultiple
timesinrecentweeks.
ASSOCIATEDPRESS

MercyCorps,whichisoneofthemainprovidersoffoodaidinSyria,hasstockpilesofsuppliesinsidethecountry,
butevendistributingthemhasbecomemoredifficultanddangerous.Thesurgeinairstrikesleavespeoplecutoff,
shesaid.

Some600,000people--bothresidentsanddisplacedSyrians--liveintheAzazdistrictandeastAleppo,according
toDoctorsWithoutBorders,whichhadtobrieflysuspenddistributionofreliefintheareaearlierthismonth.

Forpeopleindamagedhomesorwholiveindisplacedshelteringintentedcampswithfewpossessions,thearrival
ofwintermakesthesituationworse,CarlosFrancisco,theheadofmissionforDoctorsWithoutBordersinSyria,
toldTheWorldPost.Itsalsohardforthemtogetmedicalcare,eveninemergencies,hesaid.Mostofthemedical
facilitiesintheareahavebeentargetedatonepointoranotherduringtheSyrianwar.
 BARAA
AL-HALABI/AFP/GettyImagesThousandshavegatheredincampsneartheTurkishborder,includingatBabal-
Salam.

RussiahasbeenbombingopponentsofSyrianPresidentBasharal-Assadindifferentpartsofthecountrysincelate
September.WhiletheKremlininsistsitisonlytargetingextremistgroups,mostRussianairstrikeshavehitareas
controlledbyarangeofoppositiongroups,fromalQaedasSyrianaffiliatetoWestern-backedfighters.

MoscowsinterventionintheSyrianconflicthasheightenedtensionsbetweenRussia,along-standingAssadally,and
countriesthatbacktheSyrianopposition,mostnotablyTurkey.OnNov.24,TurkeyshotdownaRussianjetthat
AnkarasaidhadstrayedovertheSyrianborderintoTurkishterritory.RussianPresidentVladimirPutinvowed
payback.

Inthedaysandweeksthatfollowed,SyrianandRussianairstrikessharplyincreasedinnorthernSyria,accordingto
theUnitedNations'humanitarianagencyOCHA.Theyhitmarketsandbakeries,hospitalsandschools.Dozensof
civiliancasualtieswerereported.

TheairstrikesnudgedclosertoTurkeysborder,strikingrepeatedlyattrucksgatheredintransportationdepotsnear
twobordercrossings--Babal-HawainnorthIdlibandBabal-SalamonthenorthernedgeoftheAzazcorridor.
ResidentsidentifiedsomeofthewarplanesasRussian.

RushavasaldrsnnalevlerierisindebraktyardmTIR'larnaSivilSavunmaekiplerimizmdahale
ediyor.

HH(@ihhinsaniyardim)11:08AM-25Nov2015

FootagefromtheTurkishaidgroupHumanitarianReliefFoundationshowedtrucksburningneartheborder
afterareportedairstrikeinlateNovember.

Thetargetingofroadsandvehiclescausedalarmamonghumanitarianorganizationsthatdependontheroadfrom
TurkeytoAleppotobringfood,fuelandemergencyaidtoSyriancivilians.Aftertheairstrikes,severaltransportation
companiesthatbringaidandothergoodsintothecountrysuspendedsupplyroutes.Severalhumanitarian
organizationshavebeenforcedtohaltorreducetheiractivitiesinthearea,theU.N.agencysaid.
Itissimplynotsafeenoughforourstaff,ourpartnersorthepeopleinneedtohavetheactivitiesgoasnormalduring
thesecircumstances,whereweseearangeofcivilianstructuresandpropertiesbeinghit,saidBendikSrvig,
regionaladviserfortheNorwegianRefugeeCouncil,whichhastemporarilysuspendedactivitiesintheareaduetothe
bombing.TheAzazcorridorhasbeenalifelinetoAleppoandsurroundingareassincetheearlydaysoftheconflict.

TheareahasalsoprovidedsomerefugeforhundredsofthousandsofSyriansdisplacedbyconflictinotherpartsof
thecountry.

Theareahasbeenattackedbefore,butduetoitsproximitytotheTurkishborders,manyhaveconsideredit
relativelysafe,atleastincomparisontotheavailablealternativesacrosstheoppositionheldareas,Srvigsaid.

PAUL
GYPTEAU/AFP/GettyImagesRussia,along-timeAssadally,saysitisfightingextremistgroups,butanalystsand
U.S.officialssaytheyhavetargetedWestern-backedoppositionfighters.

AnalystssaytheSyrianregimeanditsRussianallyhopetocutoffoppositionfightersfromTurkishsuppliesandtake
fullcontrolofthecityofAleppo--thelargestcityinSyriabeforethewar.

Meanwhile,therebels,whoincludeTurkmenrebelssupportedbyTurkeyandanumbrellacoalitioncalledJaishal-
Fatah,areunderattackonallothersides--theKurdishDemocraticUnionPartyinthewest,theself-described
IslamicStatetotheeast,andtheSyrianregimeandalliesinthesouth.

TheAzazcorridorhasbecometheepicenterofthewar,UniversityofLyonassociateprofessorFabriceBalanche
wroteinareportforTheWashingtonInstituteforNearEastPolicylastweek.
 TheWashingtonInstituteforNearEastPolicy

Thebombsarecomingnearer,andmanySyrianshavenowherelefttoflee.Turkeyofficiallycloseditsborder
crossingswithSyriainMarch,andaccordingtoHumanRightsWatch,hasrecentlycrackeddownonSyrianstrying
toslipacrosstheborderafterpromisingEuropetostemtheflowofmigrantsandrefugeesintothecontinent.

Theresahugeincreaseinciviliancasualties,anewwaveofdisplacement,andwithEuropeanpressureonTurkeyto
keeptheirbordersecure,alotofpeoplefeeltrappedinbetween,Delafieldsaid.

ReadmoreontheconflictinSyria:

-ADefectorSmuggledEvidenceOfMassAtrocitiesOutOfSyria.HereAreTheVictimsStories
-MostDisplacedSyriansAren'tRefugees.They'reTrappedInsideTheCountry
-HauntedByWar,ManySyrianKidsHaveNoPsychologicalSupport.ThisGroupWantsToChangeThat
-Heart-WrenchingVideoShowsChildrenWoundedBySyrianAirstrikes

----------Forwardedmessage----------
From:PeterBorisow<ap.borisow@comcast.net>
Date:Sat,Dec19,2015at9:18AM
Subject:Re:[JohnDDailyDigest12-18]Fwd:Thefermentgrows:"AngryRussianBUSINESSMENturnonKremlin,"......[RUS
C]TrumpDefendsPutinKillingJournalists.......[GJY]UNBELIEVABLE:RussiaCallingShotsonSyriaatUN........[ED:PB
respondstoSYUNMeetingandmore]
To:wolodymyrzarycky<wzarcusur@gmail.com>

Walter,it'sjusthardtobelieveUkraineisnotinplayinNewYorkthequestionisnot"if"but"how"IfPutinsavesAssad
(whichlooksprettygoodnow),wemaywellfindISIS'snextmovetobeinYemenandSaudiRightnowtheSaudi'saregiving
himabiggerheadachethanUA.HecanalwaysreturnlatertoUA(andmostcertainlywill).Hedoesn'thavetotrytotake
Saudi,justscaretheprincesenoughtoletthepriceofoilfloatbackupenoughtokeephiminbusiness.And,therearelotsof
folksonthissideofthepondwhowouldliketoseetheSaudi'sraisepricesaswell.SowecouldseeacoalitionofUS,RUand
EU(German)businessinterestspushingforashifttowards"makenicetoPutie".Evenifsanctionsremain,ariseinoilprices
wouldgivePutinalotofbreathingroom.Inexchange,hepullsbackhissupportofISISexpansion(thedotsaremurky,but
emerging)and,withoutlosinginSyria,hecanputhisfocusbackonUA.Inthemeantime,hecontinuesfundingandorchestrating
chaosinUARadawithlotsofcashfundingattackdogsonRussianowned/controlledmedia,forgingbizarrepoliticalalliancesto
furtherdiscordandmalignantdezinformtokeepthecatsfighting.

----------Forwardedmessage----------
From:WalterDerzko<wderzko@pathcom.com>
Date:Fri,Dec18,2015at5:27PM
Subject:ChessmasterGarryKasparovequatesPutinwithDonCorleone
To:1WalterZarycky<waz2102@caa.columbia.edu>,1WolodymyrZarycky<wzarcusur@gmail.com>,WalterDerzko
<wderzko@pathcom.com>

ChessmasterGarryKasparovequatesPutinwithDonCorleone

ByJillDoughertyDecember18at12:46PM

http://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/chess-master-garry-kasparov-equates-putin-with-don-corleone/2015/12/18/79064a58-
8c7e-11e5-baf4-bdf37355da0c_story.html

JillDoughertywasCNNsMoscowbureauchieffrom1997to2005.ShealsoservedasCNNsWhiteHousecorrespondent,
foreignaffairscorrespondentandmanagingeditorforAsia/Pacific.

WhenGarryKasparovwasthechesschampionoftheworld,hehadanickname:thebeastfromBaku,areferencebothtohis
birthplaceintheformerSovietrepublicofAzerbaijanandtohistake-no-prisonersstyleofplaying.

Aggressiveandarrogant,hewasthemasterofattack.In2005,afteratwo-decadecareer,heretiredfromthegametojoin
Russiaspro-democracymovementand,asheexplainsinhisbook,WinterIsComing,topushbackagainsttherisingtideof
repressionscomingfromtheKremlin.

InthisscreedagainstVladimirPutin,Kasparovgoesontheoffensiveoncemore.PutinsRussiaisclearlythebiggestandmost
dangerousthreatfacingtheworldtoday,hewrites.PutinisalostcauseandRussiawillalsobealostcauseuntilheis
gone.Now,withPutinlaunchinganaircampaigninSyria,KasparovrecentlytoldCNN.comthatPutinneedsasteadydietof
escalatingconflict,andheblastedtheWestforplayingthedictatorspurelytacticalgame,andlosing.

Inhisnewbook,Kasparovgoesshockinglyfurther.InhisManicheanuniverse,boththeRussianpresidentandtheIslamicState
terroristorganizationarethreatstothemodernworldyetPutin,heargues,isworsehehasnukestobackhimup.

"WinterIsComing:WhyVladimirPutinandtheEnemiesoftheFreeWorldMustBeStopped"byGarryKasparov(PublicAffairs)

[GarryKasparovonhisnextbookandwhyPutinislikeTywinLannister]

BothPutinandtheIslamicStatearewagingawaronmodernity,KasparovwroteintheWallStreetJournalinJanuary.Putin
longsfortheunlimitedpoweroftheczarstheIslamicStateslashesitswaytowardamedievalcaliphate.BothrejectWestern
values,heargues,andthisisthecommonthreadconnectingthePutinattackonUkraineandthemurderousIslam-derivied
ideologythatfuelsjihadistslikethePariskillers.

WhilethereaderdigeststhisversionofPutintheInternationalTerrorist,Kasparovalsoemploysthewell-worntropeofPutinas
mafiadon.ThebestwaytounderstandtheRussianpresident,hesays,istoreadMarioPuzosGodfathertrilogy,withPutinas
DonVitoCorleone.Insteadofthemafiadonsgamblingandbootlegging,Russiasdictatorialpetro-staterunsonoil,moneyand
power.

Thatcomparisonhasbeenmademanytimesbefore,andotherbooksonPutinhaveanalyzedindetailhissystemofcentralized
control,calledthepowervertical,alongwiththeincestuousrelationshipsbetweengovernmentofficialsandstate-owned
corporations.

KasparovtracesthehighpointsofPutins15years(sofar)inpower,buthisbookofferslittlethatwouldbefreshtomanyreaders.
Insomerespects,thathardlymatters.Kasparovisonadifferentmission:toassessblameandtheresplentytogoaround,
beginningwithwhathecallsthecrimesandmisdemeanorsofPutinspredecessors,SovietPresidentMikhailGorbachevand
Russiasfirstpresident,BorisYeltsin.

CouldRussiasdemocracyactivists,includingKasparov,haveavertedthedownwardspiralthatledtoPutin?No,Kasparovsays
theyneverhadachance.Slandered,physicallyassaulted,harassedbypoliceand,inthecaseofBorisNemtsov,murdered,
Russiasreformers,Kasparovinsists,wereblockedateveryturnfrombuildingamovementthatcouldchallengetheKremlin.

Inhisblack-and-whitetelling,theresnoroomfordeepanalysisofthecriticalquestionofwhyRussiasliberalsfailedtocoalesce.
Insteadtheresjustafleetingreferencetotheirinternalfeuding,whichhedescribesastheYeltsin-eracivilwarmentality.

KasparovreserveshisgreatestirefortheWest,theUnitedStatesand,mostofall,PresidentObamaforwhatheconsiderscraven
panderingtoPutin.Despitetheattemptstorebrandthemethodasengagement,hesneers,thesmellofappeasementis
impossibletomask.

AsRussianwarplanescarryoutbombingmissionsinSyria,theWhiteHousestandsidlyby,KasparovtoldNewsweekinOctober:
TheUnitedStateshasnointerestinstandinguptoVladimirPutinslatestgambitatleastnotinanywaythatwoulddeterhim.

U.S.presidentsinparticular,hesaysinhisbook,alwaysplacedfartoomuchfaithinindividualsinRussia,insteadofsupporting
thestructuralandinstitutionalreformsthatcouldhaveguaranteedthesurvivalofdemocracy.HeevencriticizesColdWarriors
suchasDickCheney,DonaldRumsfeldandCondoleezzaRiceforcavingintotheRussianruler.

KasparovyearnsfortheveritiesoftheColdWar,thetouchstoneofwhatheconsiderstherightwaytodealwithadictatorship:
notjustdefendingvaluesbutprojectingthemaggressively.

Instead,hesays,theWesthascoddledRussia,strokingitsego,treatingitlikethesuperpowertheSovietUnionusedtobe,rather
thanpromotingWesternvaluesanddemandingthatMoscowadheretostandardsofhumanrights.Asaresult,hebelieves,Russia
hasslippedbackintototalitarianism.

Dictatorsonlystopwhentheyarestopped,andappeasingPutinwithUkrainewillonlystokehisappetiteformoreconquests,he
warns.Ukraineisjustonebattlethefreeworldwouldliketoignoreinalargerwaritrefusestoacknowledgeevenexists.

InKasparovsworld,theWestassumesmythic,omnipotentproportions.IgnoringtherolesthatthecrumblingSovieteconomyand
worldoilpricesplayedinthedemiseoftheU.S.S.R.,Kasparovclaimsthatitwasthefreeworldthathadbroughtdownthe
SovietUnion,andthatitwastheWestsindifferenceandfecklessnessthatallowedPutintoputanendtothedemocratic
experimentinRussia.

ThisisanItoldyousobookofthehighestorder.Putinhasthehabitofmakingmeintoanaccurateprophet,Kasparovwrites,
butaverydisappointedRussian.

Thereareplentyofshouldve,wouldve,couldvesinWinterIsComing.Backinthe90s,Kasparovclaims,ifGeorgeW.
Bushsfreedompromotionagendahadexisted,itwouldhavehadatremendouspositiveeffect...whenthebadguyswere
alreadyindisarray.

ButcouldWashingtonhavestoppedthebadguys?Duringtheearly90stheUnitedStateswasmoreconcernedaboutRussia
emergingfromtheashesoftheSovietUnionwithoutacivilwaroranuclearcatastrophethanitwasinscoldingYeltsinforhisanti-
democraticactions,suchascrushingarevoltbyorderingtankstoopenfireontheRussianWhiteHouse.
Real-worlddecisionsbasedonhardchoiceshavenoplaceinKasparovsworld.TheWest,itseems,justhastogrowlatPutinand
hewillstopinhistracks.IntheuniversewhereMcCainispresident,PutindoesnotinvadeUkraine,hesays,withastraightface.

Kasparov,inhisowneyes,isachampionprognosticatoraboutwhatPutinwilltrynextandwhattheWestfearstodotostop
him.

AsinUkraine,hepredictsinhisNewsweekcommentary,PutinwillstayinSyriauntilitnolongersuitshim.Hehasnolong-term
strategicgoalsbeyondcreatingchaosandweakeningthealliancesofthefreeworldwhereverpossible.

Thismaybetrue,butKasparov,throughoutthisbook,seemsmoreexasperatedbytheWestsunwillingnesstorespondthanby
Putinsaggressiveness.

EveryoneistellingmehowrightIwas.But,hecomplains,fewofhisrecommendationshavebeenenacted.SomehowI
managedtounderestimatethecowardiceoftheWesternworldonceagain.

Whatarethoserecommendations?Forgetengagement,Kasparovsays,whetherwithPutinortheIslamicState.Instead,his
prescriptionisback-to-the-future:No,todefeatthemwillrequiretheunityandtheresolveandtheprinciplesthatwontheCold
War.

Kasparovproposesanewalliancefortheworld,withaglobalMagnaCarta,adeclarationoffundamentalrightsrecognizedby
allmembers,whichupholdsandenforcestheUniversalDeclarationofHumanRights.

ButKasparovalsowantsregimechangeinRussia.Stopcoddlingrogueregimesandsponsorsofterror,hesays.Putinsnature
cannotbechanged,andPutincannotbeappeased.Hemustbecontainedandoverthrown.

HeurgesEuropesleaderstostanduptotheKremlinbutalsopredictsthattheWestwillcaveagain.Itsclearatthemoment
thatthedemocraciesofthetwenty-firstcenturyarenotreadyforthisfight,Kasparovsays.Itisstillanopenquestionwhetheror
nottheycanandwillmakethemselvesready.

Fullofgeneralities,sound-bitecallstoactionandcomplaintsabouttheWestsinaction,WinterIsComing,writtenwithMig
Greengard,readsmorelikealongblogpostthanabook.

Missingarethoughtfulexaminationsofnumerousissues,forexample,recognitionofwhattheRussianpeoplethemselvesmightdo
topromotechange.KasparovclaimsthattheonlywayPutinsrulewillendisiftheRussianpeopleandPutinselitesunderstand
theyhavenofutureaslongasheisthere.ButheseemstobelievethatitstheWestsresponsibilitytoconvincethemofthatfact.

Putinisnomasterstrategist,Kasparovscoffs,callinghimanaggressivepokerplayerfacingweakoppositionfromaWestern
worldthathasbecomesoriskaversethatitwouldratherfoldthancallanybluff,nomatterhowgooditscardsare.

TheRussianpeople,however,areinthisgame,too.Somearefoldingtheircardsandfleeingthecountry.Otherskeepplaying,
evenifthedeckisstackedagainstthem.Theoverwhelmingmajority,ifyoubelieveRussianopinionpolls,arestillstickingwiththe
manwhodealsthecards.

Chess,however,isamorecomplexgameofstrategy.Asagrandmaster,Kasparovplayedtowin.Asapro-democracyactivistin
Russia,hescaughtinalosingstreak.HenowlivesinNewYork,afactthatrankles.

IoftensaidthatPutinwasaRussianproblemforRussiatosolve,hewrites,butthathewouldsoonbearegionalproblemand
thenaglobalproblemifhisambitionswereignored,adding:ItiscoldcomforttobetoldYouwereright!

----------Forwardedmessage----------
From:WalterDerzko<wderzko@pathcom.com>
Date:Sat,Dec19,2015at11:09AM
Subject:"IthinkPutinisplayingwith[America]likeaStradivarius-JebBush
To:1WalterZarycky<waz2102@caa.columbia.edu>,1WolodymyrZarycky<wzarcusur@gmail.com>,WalterDerzko
<wderzko@pathcom.com>
JebBush:PutinPlayingAmericaTheWayThatTrumpPlaysThePress

Thisisallagamefortheseguys,BushsaidoftheRussianpresidentsendorsementofhisRepublicanrival.

Dec.18,2015,at12:45p.m.

ChristopherMassie

BuzzFeedNewsReporter

JebBushsaidonThursdaythatRussianPresidentVladimirPutinsendorsementofhisopponentDonaldTrumpshowedthatPutin
wasplayingAmericathewaythatTrumpplaysthepress.

TheformerFloridaGov.madethecommentonMichaelMedvedsradioshow,afterthehostaskedhimabouttheRussianleaders
endorsementofBushsGOPrival.

IthinkPutinisplayingwithuslikeaStradivarius,Bushsaid,startingtoapplythesameanalogytoPutinthatheappliedto
Trumpearlierthismonth.Hesplayingus,America,thewaythatTrumpplaysthepress.Thisisallagamefortheseguys.Butwe
haveastakeintheMiddleEast.Wecantpullback.WecantbanallMuslimscomingintoourcountryandexpecttocreatea
coalitionwhichwouldbeessentialforthelong-termstabilityofSyriaandIraq.

BushalsocriticizedwhathecalledTrumpsapparentaffinityforPutin.

Andhisproposalsarejustcrazy,BushsaidofTrump.Imean,tosaythatyougetyourmilitaryadvicefromtheshows.To
suggestthatHillaryClintonwoulddoagoodjobnegotiatingwithIran,betterthananybodyelse.Thesearethethingsthathes
said.HehasastrongfeelingofapparentlyaffinitytowardsVladimirPutin,oneofthegreatdespotsofourtime.

http://www.buzzfeed.com/christophermassie/jeb-bush-putin-playing-america-the-way-that-trump-plays-the#.naWWGxlaA
 From: JohnBDunlop<jbdunlop@stanford.edu>
Senttime: 12/19/201508:44:47AM
To: martin.dewhirst@gmail.com
Cc: robertotto25@gmail.com
FW:[SATMORNINGPOST/EST]UAhalts$3bnRUdebtrepayment....."HowBLDisappointedRUinUAandSY"[INTERESTING
Subject:
READ].....RUBombingCutsLifelinetoSYCivilianAid.....PBRespondstoSYUNMeeting......KasparovEquatesPutinwithCorleone....Bush:Put

From:WalterZaryckyj[mailto:waz2102@caa.columbia.edu]
Sent:Saturday,December19,20158:42AM
To:RomaHadzewyczrl
Subject:[SATMORNINGPOST/EST]UAhalts$3bnRUdebtrepayment....."HowBLDisappointedRUinUAandSY"[INTERESTING
READ].....RUBombingCutsLifelinetoSYCivilianAid.....PBRespondstoSYUNMeeting......KasparovEquatesPutinwithCorleone....Bush:
Puti...

---------Forwardedmessage----------
From:MartaBurachok<marta.burachok@gmail.com>
Date:Sat,Dec19,2015at8:35AM
Subject:Ukrainehalts$3bnRussiadebtrepayment-BBCNews
To:WalterZaryckyj<waz2102@caa.columbia.edu>

http://www.bbc.com/news/business-35132258

Ukrainehalts$3bnRussiadebtrepayment

AFPTensionsbetweenRussiaandUkrainehaveincludedargumentsovergassupplies

Ukrainewillnotrepaya$3bndebtowedtoRussiabythisweekend,claimingRussiahasrefusedtoaccept
 repaymenttermsalreadyofferedtootherinternationalcreditors.

ThemoratoriummeansthatUkraineislikelytodefaultonthedebt,whichisdueonSunday.

Inaddition,repaymentof$507mofUkrainiancommercialdebtheldbyRussianbankswillalsobehalted.

ThecountrieshavebeenatloggerheadssinceRussiaannexedCrimealastyear.

Ukraine'sPrimeMinister,ArsenyYatseniuk,saidUkrainehadimposedamoratoriumonthepaymentofa$3bn
eurobondheldentirelybyRussia,whichisduetomatureon20December.

Hedidnotsayhowlongthemoratoriumwouldlast.MoscowhadpreviouslysaiditwouldtakeUkrainetocourtifit
didnotpayontime.

Themoratoriumwillbeinplace"untiltheacceptanceofourrestructuringproposalsortheadoptionoftherelevant
courtdecision",MrYatseniuktoldhisgovernment.

"WearepreparedforcourtactionfromtheRussianside."

RelationsbetweenthetwocountrieshavebeentensesinceRussiaannexedtheCrimeanpeninsulain2014.

UkraineandtheWesthavealsoaccusedRussiaofarmingandaidingseparatistrebelsineasternUkraine,allegations
thatRussiahasdenied.

InNovember,RussianenergysupplierGazpromhaltedgassuppliestoUkraine.

OnWednesday,RussiasaiditwouldsuspendatradepactwithUkrainethatwouldexcludethecountryfromafree
tradezonethatincludesformerSovietcountriesfrom1January.

Ukrainesaiditis"readytopaytheprice"tojoinanEUfreetradezonefromthatdate.

----------Forwardedmessage----------
From:KL
Date:Sat,Dec19,2015at7:43AM
Subject:LookatLukashenko[Ed:Lukashenk(a)SeemstoUnderstandPutinBetterThanTrumpDoes]

To:

ttp://belarusdigest.com/story/how-belarus-disappointed-russia-ukraine-and-syria-24066

HowBelarusDisappointedRussiaInUkraineAnd
Syria
SiarheiBohdan18December2015
 NewUkrainianArmouredVehicleDesignedwithBelarusHelp.Image:UkraineMinistryofInternalAffairs
Minsk

consistentlyavoidssupportingMoscowinUkraineandSyria.Toputit
mildly.Afterall,on7December,UkrainianInternalMinisterAvakov
inauguratedthenewUkrainianarmouredvehicleVartadesignedin
cooperationwith"Belarusianengineers".

ItbecamejustonemoreofaseriesofexamplesofBelarus-Ukrainian
defencecooperation.Lateron,theBelarusianDefenceMinistry
deniedclaimsthatitsupportedRussia'spositioninthelatter'sdisputewithTurkey.

BelarusrisksestrangingitsRussianally,butnotbecauseitwantstoearnextramoneyin
UkraineorfromconservativeArabregimes.MinskstrivestoimproverelationswithRussia's
opponentsbecausetheKremlinhasshownitselfwillingtomakeradicalforeignpolicymoves.

KremlinTrash:BelarusianarmsforISIS
Lastweek,RussianpropagandaoutletEurasiaDailypublishedacommentarywiththe
eloquenttitleBelarusian'Neutrality'isHypocrisyonSpilledBlood.Itsummarisedaseriesof
articlesinwhichexpertsclosetotheKremlinaccusedBelarusofanti-Russianpoliciesin
UkraineandSyria.
WhenprominentRussianexpertscriticiseMinskinhalfadozenarticlesonEurasiaDailyit
meansthattheKremlinwantsitsBelarusianpartnertounderstandtheseriousnessofthe
accusations.TheleadingexpertonBelarusattheInstituteforStudiesofCISCountries,
AlexanderFadeev,pointedoutthatBelarussuppliedUkrainewithfuel,dual-usegoodsand
componentsforarmssystems.HeemphasisedthatMinskdiditnotonlyforeconomicbut
alsopoliticalreasons:inotherwords,toimproverelationswiththeWest.
LukashenkanotonlyearnsmoneyinUkrainebutalsosaystotheWest:Iamyours,don'tstagea
MaidaninBelarus
On11December,aRussianpoliticalanalystworkingattheprestigiousHigherSchoolof
EconomicscalledAndreiSuzdaltsevdevelopedthisideafurther.Accordingtohim,
LukashenkanotonlyearnsmoneyinUkrainebutalsosaystotheWest:Iamyours,don't
stageaMaidaninBelarus.
RussianpoliticalcommentatorEvgenySatanovskiearlieraccusedBelarusofworkingwith
TurkeyandQataragainstRussiaintheMiddleEast.NowhehastakenhiscriticismofMinskto
theextreme.Accordingtohim,whilepreviouslyRussia'sopponentsintheMiddleEast
QatarandUAEpurchasedarmsforISISinSerbiaandNorthKorea,nowtheydoitmostlyin
Minsk.Satanovskiunderlined,They[ISIS]aregoingtousetheseweapons.Whetheritwillbe
againstus[Russians],Syrians,Iraniansorcivilianswhotheymurderisasecondaryquestion.

CooperationwithUkraine:impossibletohide
RidiculousaccusationsofBelarussellingweaponstoISISwillnotfoolanybody.In,factitis
BelarusianpolicyinUkraineandnotSyriawhichenragesMoscow.AndevidenceofBelarus-
Ukrainiancooperationabounds.AyearagoitseemedthatBelarusmightmerelytake
advantageofthesituationtoearnsomemoneysupplyingUkrainewithwarmaterials.Now,
almosttwoyearsintotheDonbaswar,MinskcontinuestocooperatewithKyiv,provingthatthis
collaborationispartofBelarus'longer-termstrategyintheregion.
Kyiv-basedjournalistIhorTyshkevichhasrecentlypublishedinKhvyliaanewinvestigative
overviewofBelarus-Ukrainiancooperation.HebelievesthatthisyearBelarusianfirmscould
earnabout$90-$100mfrommilitary-relevantdeals(withoutfuel)inUkraine.
Somethingofthisbusinessisevident,liketheriseofBelarus'shareintheUkrainianaircraft
fuelmarketfrom0%beforethewarto45%,orstatisticaldataonbilateraltradewhichshow
transfersofnumerousgoodsforprobablemilitaryuse.

Indeed,whilein2014BelarussoldUkraine$5mworthof
Stugna-Panti-tankguidedmissile

aircraft,inthefirsthalfof2015thisfigureroseto$14.4m.In2015,KyivboughtfromBelarus
specialtrucksworth$1.7m,i.e.,therespectiveexportroseby210%comparedwith2014.
Manypossibleindicatorsofcooperationlackdirectevidence,yetlookconvincing.For
example,TyshkevichpointsoutthattheUkrainianarmyhasstartedtoreceivelargequantities
ofthenewanti-tankmissilesystemStugna.Ukraineproducesonlythemissileusedinthis
system,whiletherestisdeliveredbyMinsk-basedfirmPeleng.

WhyMinskrisksworkingwithKyiv
ThestatisticsshowthatthoughBelarushasearnedsomemoneyfromthesetransactions,this
aloneisnotenoughtobeworththeriskswhichtheseUkrainiandealsposetoBelarus-
Russianrelations.Minskisnotlookingformoney.
MinskstrivestomaintainandimproverelationswithopponentsofMoscowintheregionandbeyond
(firstofalltheEU)
TheRussianexpertsquotedabovegotitright:politicsdeterminesthebehaviourofBelarusian
government.Firstofall,Minskstrivestomaintainandimproverelationswithopponentsof
Moscowintheregionandbeyond(firstofalltheEU)becausethedevelopmentsinCrimea
andtheDonbashaveprofoundlyshockedit.Itisnotsurethatsomethingofthiskindcouldnot
happeninBelarusandislookingeverywhereforpartnerswhowouldhelppreventor,if
necessaryresist,suchaneventuality.

Atthesametime,BelarushasreachedthelimitsofitscooperationwithRussiaassetbythe
Kremlin.Inthefieldofmilitaryindustrialcooperation,Minskhassufferednumerous
disappointments.Forinstance,itsplanstoestablishjointlywithRussiaanassembly
productionofaircraftinBelarusintheearly2010sendedwithnothing.
Earlier,inthelate2000s,BelarusnegotiatedwiththeKremlinevenmorefar-reachingplans
forproducingtopdefenceproductsinBelarus.Amongthemwereshort-rangeballisticmissile
systems(Iskander),surface-to-airmissilesystems(Tor)andlaunchersformobile
intercontinentalballisticmissile(Topol).Tonoavail.

UkrainegivesBelarusmilitarytechnologies
MinskthenpubliclyturnedtoChinaforsomeoftheseopportunities,butalsotoUkraine,
especiallyafterCrimea.Interestingly,theBelarusiangeneralPiatroRahazheuskiwhohad
negotiatedwithMoscowpossibleBelarusianparticipationin
producingIskandersandTorslateronoptedtoworkwithUkrainians.
ThisformerDeputyDefenceMinisterofBelarusandlaterDeputyChairmanoftheState
MilitaryIndustrialCommitteeisnowthedirectoroftheBelarusianofficeoftheUkrainianMotor
SichCompany.MotorSichhasgivenBelarussomethingRussiadenied:theUkrainian
companyestablishedahelicoptersrepairfacilityinOrshaandplanstoextendit.
 UkrainehelpsBelaruswithexpertiseandtechnology,notonlyconcerningaviationbutalsotanksand
missiles
TyshkevichassertsthatUkrainehelpsBelaruswithexpertiseandtechnology,notonly
concerningaviationbutalsotanksandmissiles.RussianscholarSuzdaltsevonEurasia
Dailyagrees:"LukashenkaistryingtogetfromUkrainethearmswhichRussiatakinginto
accountthenotverytrustingrelationsbetweenMinskandMoscowcannotgivehim."
TyshkevichandSuzdaltsevassumethatUkrainiansmighthaveparticipatedindesigningthe
BelarusianPalanezmultiplelaunchrocketsystem.OfficiallyaBelarus-Chineseproduct,
PalanezshootsfurtherthantheChineseWS-2andWS-3systemswhichpresumablyserved
asprototypesforPalanez.SinceitsfirstpublicdemonstrationinMay,themediahas
speculatedaboutUkrainian(andRussian)involvementindesigningthisweapon.
Allinall,Belarus'contactswiththeUkrainianandArabregimesopposingRussiacannotbe
dismissedastheopportunisticpursuitofeasymoney.Minskdislikesthepoliciesofthe
currentRussiangovernmentwhichthreatentoredrawinternationalborders.Moreover,ithas
realisedthattheKremlintakesitsalliancewithBelarusforgrantedanddoesnotdealwithitas
apartner.

SiarheiBohdanisaResearchDirectorattheOstrogorskiCentre.Heisanalumnusofthe
BelarusStateUniversityandEuropeanHumanitiesUniversityinLithuania.

----------Forwardedmessage----------
From:MartaBurachok<marta.burachok@gmail.com>
Date:Sat,Dec19,2015at8:50AM
Subject:[HuffPost]RussianAirstrikesCutOffSyrians'LifelineToCrucialAid
To:WalterZaryckyj<waz2102@caa.columbia.edu>

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/russian-airstrikes-humanitarian-crisis-syria_5672ed64e4b0648fe3027fdb

RussianAirstrikesCutOffSyrians'LifelineTo
CrucialAid
Everyweek,webringyouoneoverlookedaspectofstoriesthatmadenewsinrecentdays.Didyounoticethe
mediaforgotallaboutanotherstory'sbasicfacts?Tweet@TheWorldPostorletusknowonourFacebook
page.

TheSyrianandRussianairforceshavepoundedasmallstripofrebel-controlledterritorynearSyriasborderwith
Turkeyinrecentweeks,inwhatcouldbeoneofthemostdecisivebattlesinSyriasnearlyfive-yearwar.

Itcouldalso,however,sparkanewhumanitariancrisisinthecountry.TheAzazcorridor,apassagewaythatis5to
15kilometerswideandrunsfromtheTurkishbordertotheSyriancityofAleppo,providesacriticallifelineforaid
andsuppliesforoverhalfamillionSyrians.Inrecentweeks,severalaidgroupshavebeenforcedtosuspendorscale
backoperationsintheareaafterairstrikeshitvehicleconvoysandcivilianinfrastructure.

ThisisthemainroutethroughwhichaidisbroughtintonorthernSyria,saidChristyDelafield,senior
communicationsofficerforhumanitarianaidgroupMercyCorps,whichhadtosuspendcross-borderaidmultiple
timesinrecentweeks.
ASSOCIATEDPRESS

MercyCorps,whichisoneofthemainprovidersoffoodaidinSyria,hasstockpilesofsuppliesinsidethecountry,
butevendistributingthemhasbecomemoredifficultanddangerous.Thesurgeinairstrikesleavespeoplecutoff,
shesaid.

Some600,000people--bothresidentsanddisplacedSyrians--liveintheAzazdistrictandeastAleppo,according
toDoctorsWithoutBorders,whichhadtobrieflysuspenddistributionofreliefintheareaearlierthismonth.

Forpeopleindamagedhomesorwholiveindisplacedshelteringintentedcampswithfewpossessions,thearrival
ofwintermakesthesituationworse,CarlosFrancisco,theheadofmissionforDoctorsWithoutBordersinSyria,
toldTheWorldPost.Itsalsohardforthemtogetmedicalcare,eveninemergencies,hesaid.Mostofthemedical
facilitiesintheareahavebeentargetedatonepointoranotherduringtheSyrianwar.
 BARAA
AL-HALABI/AFP/GettyImagesThousandshavegatheredincampsneartheTurkishborder,includingatBabal-
Salam.

RussiahasbeenbombingopponentsofSyrianPresidentBasharal-Assadindifferentpartsofthecountrysincelate
September.WhiletheKremlininsistsitisonlytargetingextremistgroups,mostRussianairstrikeshavehitareas
controlledbyarangeofoppositiongroups,fromalQaedasSyrianaffiliatetoWestern-backedfighters.

MoscowsinterventionintheSyrianconflicthasheightenedtensionsbetweenRussia,along-standingAssadally,and
countriesthatbacktheSyrianopposition,mostnotablyTurkey.OnNov.24,TurkeyshotdownaRussianjetthat
AnkarasaidhadstrayedovertheSyrianborderintoTurkishterritory.RussianPresidentVladimirPutinvowed
payback.

Inthedaysandweeksthatfollowed,SyrianandRussianairstrikessharplyincreasedinnorthernSyria,accordingto
theUnitedNations'humanitarianagencyOCHA.Theyhitmarketsandbakeries,hospitalsandschools.Dozensof
civiliancasualtieswerereported.

TheairstrikesnudgedclosertoTurkeysborder,strikingrepeatedlyattrucksgatheredintransportationdepotsnear
twobordercrossings--Babal-HawainnorthIdlibandBabal-SalamonthenorthernedgeoftheAzazcorridor.
ResidentsidentifiedsomeofthewarplanesasRussian.

RushavasaldrsnnalevlerierisindebraktyardmTIR'larnaSivilSavunmaekiplerimizmdahale
ediyor.

HH(@ihhinsaniyardim)11:08AM-25Nov2015

FootagefromtheTurkishaidgroupHumanitarianReliefFoundationshowedtrucksburningneartheborder
afterareportedairstrikeinlateNovember.

Thetargetingofroadsandvehiclescausedalarmamonghumanitarianorganizationsthatdependontheroadfrom
TurkeytoAleppotobringfood,fuelandemergencyaidtoSyriancivilians.Aftertheairstrikes,severaltransportation
companiesthatbringaidandothergoodsintothecountrysuspendedsupplyroutes.Severalhumanitarian
organizationshavebeenforcedtohaltorreducetheiractivitiesinthearea,theU.N.agencysaid.
Itissimplynotsafeenoughforourstaff,ourpartnersorthepeopleinneedtohavetheactivitiesgoasnormalduring
thesecircumstances,whereweseearangeofcivilianstructuresandpropertiesbeinghit,saidBendikSrvig,
regionaladviserfortheNorwegianRefugeeCouncil,whichhastemporarilysuspendedactivitiesintheareaduetothe
bombing.TheAzazcorridorhasbeenalifelinetoAleppoandsurroundingareassincetheearlydaysoftheconflict.

TheareahasalsoprovidedsomerefugeforhundredsofthousandsofSyriansdisplacedbyconflictinotherpartsof
thecountry.

Theareahasbeenattackedbefore,butduetoitsproximitytotheTurkishborders,manyhaveconsideredit
relativelysafe,atleastincomparisontotheavailablealternativesacrosstheoppositionheldareas,Srvigsaid.

PAUL
GYPTEAU/AFP/GettyImagesRussia,along-timeAssadally,saysitisfightingextremistgroups,butanalystsand
U.S.officialssaytheyhavetargetedWestern-backedoppositionfighters.

AnalystssaytheSyrianregimeanditsRussianallyhopetocutoffoppositionfightersfromTurkishsuppliesandtake
fullcontrolofthecityofAleppo--thelargestcityinSyriabeforethewar.

Meanwhile,therebels,whoincludeTurkmenrebelssupportedbyTurkeyandanumbrellacoalitioncalledJaishal-
Fatah,areunderattackonallothersides--theKurdishDemocraticUnionPartyinthewest,theself-described
IslamicStatetotheeast,andtheSyrianregimeandalliesinthesouth.

TheAzazcorridorhasbecometheepicenterofthewar,UniversityofLyonassociateprofessorFabriceBalanche
wroteinareportforTheWashingtonInstituteforNearEastPolicylastweek.
 TheWashingtonInstituteforNearEastPolicy

Thebombsarecomingnearer,andmanySyrianshavenowherelefttoflee.Turkeyofficiallycloseditsborder
crossingswithSyriainMarch,andaccordingtoHumanRightsWatch,hasrecentlycrackeddownonSyrianstrying
toslipacrosstheborderafterpromisingEuropetostemtheflowofmigrantsandrefugeesintothecontinent.

Theresahugeincreaseinciviliancasualties,anewwaveofdisplacement,andwithEuropeanpressureonTurkeyto
keeptheirbordersecure,alotofpeoplefeeltrappedinbetween,Delafieldsaid.

ReadmoreontheconflictinSyria:

-ADefectorSmuggledEvidenceOfMassAtrocitiesOutOfSyria.HereAreTheVictimsStories
-MostDisplacedSyriansAren'tRefugees.They'reTrappedInsideTheCountry
-HauntedByWar,ManySyrianKidsHaveNoPsychologicalSupport.ThisGroupWantsToChangeThat
-Heart-WrenchingVideoShowsChildrenWoundedBySyrianAirstrikes

----------Forwardedmessage----------
From:PeterBorisow<ap.borisow@comcast.net>
Date:Sat,Dec19,2015at9:18AM
Subject:Re:[JohnDDailyDigest12-18]Fwd:Thefermentgrows:"AngryRussianBUSINESSMENturnonKremlin,"......[RUS
C]TrumpDefendsPutinKillingJournalists.......[GJY]UNBELIEVABLE:RussiaCallingShotsonSyriaatUN........[ED:PB
respondstoSYUNMeetingandmore]
To:wolodymyrzarycky<wzarcusur@gmail.com>

Walter,it'sjusthardtobelieveUkraineisnotinplayinNewYorkthequestionisnot"if"but"how"IfPutinsavesAssad
(whichlooksprettygoodnow),wemaywellfindISIS'snextmovetobeinYemenandSaudiRightnowtheSaudi'saregiving
himabiggerheadachethanUA.HecanalwaysreturnlatertoUA(andmostcertainlywill).Hedoesn'thavetotrytotake
Saudi,justscaretheprincesenoughtoletthepriceofoilfloatbackupenoughtokeephiminbusiness.And,therearelotsof
folksonthissideofthepondwhowouldliketoseetheSaudi'sraisepricesaswell.SowecouldseeacoalitionofUS,RUand
EU(German)businessinterestspushingforashifttowards"makenicetoPutie".Evenifsanctionsremain,ariseinoilprices
wouldgivePutinalotofbreathingroom.Inexchange,hepullsbackhissupportofISISexpansion(thedotsaremurky,but
emerging)and,withoutlosinginSyria,hecanputhisfocusbackonUA.Inthemeantime,hecontinuesfundingandorchestrating
chaosinUARadawithlotsofcashfundingattackdogsonRussianowned/controlledmedia,forgingbizarrepoliticalalliancesto
furtherdiscordandmalignantdezinformtokeepthecatsfighting.

----------Forwardedmessage----------
From:WalterDerzko<wderzko@pathcom.com>
Date:Fri,Dec18,2015at5:27PM
Subject:ChessmasterGarryKasparovequatesPutinwithDonCorleone
To:1WalterZarycky<waz2102@caa.columbia.edu>,1WolodymyrZarycky<wzarcusur@gmail.com>,WalterDerzko
<wderzko@pathcom.com>

ChessmasterGarryKasparovequatesPutinwithDonCorleone

ByJillDoughertyDecember18at12:46PM

http://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/chess-master-garry-kasparov-equates-putin-with-don-corleone/2015/12/18/79064a58-
8c7e-11e5-baf4-bdf37355da0c_story.html

JillDoughertywasCNNsMoscowbureauchieffrom1997to2005.ShealsoservedasCNNsWhiteHousecorrespondent,
foreignaffairscorrespondentandmanagingeditorforAsia/Pacific.

WhenGarryKasparovwasthechesschampionoftheworld,hehadanickname:thebeastfromBaku,areferencebothtohis
birthplaceintheformerSovietrepublicofAzerbaijanandtohistake-no-prisonersstyleofplaying.

Aggressiveandarrogant,hewasthemasterofattack.In2005,afteratwo-decadecareer,heretiredfromthegametojoin
Russiaspro-democracymovementand,asheexplainsinhisbook,WinterIsComing,topushbackagainsttherisingtideof
repressionscomingfromtheKremlin.

InthisscreedagainstVladimirPutin,Kasparovgoesontheoffensiveoncemore.PutinsRussiaisclearlythebiggestandmost
dangerousthreatfacingtheworldtoday,hewrites.PutinisalostcauseandRussiawillalsobealostcauseuntilheis
gone.Now,withPutinlaunchinganaircampaigninSyria,KasparovrecentlytoldCNN.comthatPutinneedsasteadydietof
escalatingconflict,andheblastedtheWestforplayingthedictatorspurelytacticalgame,andlosing.

Inhisnewbook,Kasparovgoesshockinglyfurther.InhisManicheanuniverse,boththeRussianpresidentandtheIslamicState
terroristorganizationarethreatstothemodernworldyetPutin,heargues,isworsehehasnukestobackhimup.

"WinterIsComing:WhyVladimirPutinandtheEnemiesoftheFreeWorldMustBeStopped"byGarryKasparov(PublicAffairs)

[GarryKasparovonhisnextbookandwhyPutinislikeTywinLannister]

BothPutinandtheIslamicStatearewagingawaronmodernity,KasparovwroteintheWallStreetJournalinJanuary.Putin
longsfortheunlimitedpoweroftheczarstheIslamicStateslashesitswaytowardamedievalcaliphate.BothrejectWestern
values,heargues,andthisisthecommonthreadconnectingthePutinattackonUkraineandthemurderousIslam-derivied
ideologythatfuelsjihadistslikethePariskillers.

WhilethereaderdigeststhisversionofPutintheInternationalTerrorist,Kasparovalsoemploysthewell-worntropeofPutinas
mafiadon.ThebestwaytounderstandtheRussianpresident,hesays,istoreadMarioPuzosGodfathertrilogy,withPutinas
DonVitoCorleone.Insteadofthemafiadonsgamblingandbootlegging,Russiasdictatorialpetro-staterunsonoil,moneyand
power.

Thatcomparisonhasbeenmademanytimesbefore,andotherbooksonPutinhaveanalyzedindetailhissystemofcentralized
control,calledthepowervertical,alongwiththeincestuousrelationshipsbetweengovernmentofficialsandstate-owned
corporations.

KasparovtracesthehighpointsofPutins15years(sofar)inpower,buthisbookofferslittlethatwouldbefreshtomanyreaders.
Insomerespects,thathardlymatters.Kasparovisonadifferentmission:toassessblameandtheresplentytogoaround,
beginningwithwhathecallsthecrimesandmisdemeanorsofPutinspredecessors,SovietPresidentMikhailGorbachevand
Russiasfirstpresident,BorisYeltsin.

CouldRussiasdemocracyactivists,includingKasparov,haveavertedthedownwardspiralthatledtoPutin?No,Kasparovsays
theyneverhadachance.Slandered,physicallyassaulted,harassedbypoliceand,inthecaseofBorisNemtsov,murdered,
Russiasreformers,Kasparovinsists,wereblockedateveryturnfrombuildingamovementthatcouldchallengetheKremlin.

Inhisblack-and-whitetelling,theresnoroomfordeepanalysisofthecriticalquestionofwhyRussiasliberalsfailedtocoalesce.
Insteadtheresjustafleetingreferencetotheirinternalfeuding,whichhedescribesastheYeltsin-eracivilwarmentality.

KasparovreserveshisgreatestirefortheWest,theUnitedStatesand,mostofall,PresidentObamaforwhatheconsiderscraven
panderingtoPutin.Despitetheattemptstorebrandthemethodasengagement,hesneers,thesmellofappeasementis
impossibletomask.

AsRussianwarplanescarryoutbombingmissionsinSyria,theWhiteHousestandsidlyby,KasparovtoldNewsweekinOctober:
TheUnitedStateshasnointerestinstandinguptoVladimirPutinslatestgambitatleastnotinanywaythatwoulddeterhim.

U.S.presidentsinparticular,hesaysinhisbook,alwaysplacedfartoomuchfaithinindividualsinRussia,insteadofsupporting
thestructuralandinstitutionalreformsthatcouldhaveguaranteedthesurvivalofdemocracy.HeevencriticizesColdWarriors
suchasDickCheney,DonaldRumsfeldandCondoleezzaRiceforcavingintotheRussianruler.

KasparovyearnsfortheveritiesoftheColdWar,thetouchstoneofwhatheconsiderstherightwaytodealwithadictatorship:
notjustdefendingvaluesbutprojectingthemaggressively.

Instead,hesays,theWesthascoddledRussia,strokingitsego,treatingitlikethesuperpowertheSovietUnionusedtobe,rather
thanpromotingWesternvaluesanddemandingthatMoscowadheretostandardsofhumanrights.Asaresult,hebelieves,Russia
hasslippedbackintototalitarianism.

Dictatorsonlystopwhentheyarestopped,andappeasingPutinwithUkrainewillonlystokehisappetiteformoreconquests,he
warns.Ukraineisjustonebattlethefreeworldwouldliketoignoreinalargerwaritrefusestoacknowledgeevenexists.

InKasparovsworld,theWestassumesmythic,omnipotentproportions.IgnoringtherolesthatthecrumblingSovieteconomyand
worldoilpricesplayedinthedemiseoftheU.S.S.R.,Kasparovclaimsthatitwasthefreeworldthathadbroughtdownthe
SovietUnion,andthatitwastheWestsindifferenceandfecklessnessthatallowedPutintoputanendtothedemocratic
experimentinRussia.

ThisisanItoldyousobookofthehighestorder.Putinhasthehabitofmakingmeintoanaccurateprophet,Kasparovwrites,
butaverydisappointedRussian.

Thereareplentyofshouldve,wouldve,couldvesinWinterIsComing.Backinthe90s,Kasparovclaims,ifGeorgeW.
Bushsfreedompromotionagendahadexisted,itwouldhavehadatremendouspositiveeffect...whenthebadguyswere
alreadyindisarray.

ButcouldWashingtonhavestoppedthebadguys?Duringtheearly90stheUnitedStateswasmoreconcernedaboutRussia
emergingfromtheashesoftheSovietUnionwithoutacivilwaroranuclearcatastrophethanitwasinscoldingYeltsinforhisanti-
democraticactions,suchascrushingarevoltbyorderingtankstoopenfireontheRussianWhiteHouse.
Real-worlddecisionsbasedonhardchoiceshavenoplaceinKasparovsworld.TheWest,itseems,justhastogrowlatPutinand
hewillstopinhistracks.IntheuniversewhereMcCainispresident,PutindoesnotinvadeUkraine,hesays,withastraightface.

Kasparov,inhisowneyes,isachampionprognosticatoraboutwhatPutinwilltrynextandwhattheWestfearstodotostop
him.

AsinUkraine,hepredictsinhisNewsweekcommentary,PutinwillstayinSyriauntilitnolongersuitshim.Hehasnolong-term
strategicgoalsbeyondcreatingchaosandweakeningthealliancesofthefreeworldwhereverpossible.

Thismaybetrue,butKasparov,throughoutthisbook,seemsmoreexasperatedbytheWestsunwillingnesstorespondthanby
Putinsaggressiveness.

EveryoneistellingmehowrightIwas.But,hecomplains,fewofhisrecommendationshavebeenenacted.SomehowI
managedtounderestimatethecowardiceoftheWesternworldonceagain.

Whatarethoserecommendations?Forgetengagement,Kasparovsays,whetherwithPutinortheIslamicState.Instead,his
prescriptionisback-to-the-future:No,todefeatthemwillrequiretheunityandtheresolveandtheprinciplesthatwontheCold
War.

Kasparovproposesanewalliancefortheworld,withaglobalMagnaCarta,adeclarationoffundamentalrightsrecognizedby
allmembers,whichupholdsandenforcestheUniversalDeclarationofHumanRights.

ButKasparovalsowantsregimechangeinRussia.Stopcoddlingrogueregimesandsponsorsofterror,hesays.Putinsnature
cannotbechanged,andPutincannotbeappeased.Hemustbecontainedandoverthrown.

HeurgesEuropesleaderstostanduptotheKremlinbutalsopredictsthattheWestwillcaveagain.Itsclearatthemoment
thatthedemocraciesofthetwenty-firstcenturyarenotreadyforthisfight,Kasparovsays.Itisstillanopenquestionwhetheror
nottheycanandwillmakethemselvesready.

Fullofgeneralities,sound-bitecallstoactionandcomplaintsabouttheWestsinaction,WinterIsComing,writtenwithMig
Greengard,readsmorelikealongblogpostthanabook.

Missingarethoughtfulexaminationsofnumerousissues,forexample,recognitionofwhattheRussianpeoplethemselvesmightdo
topromotechange.KasparovclaimsthattheonlywayPutinsrulewillendisiftheRussianpeopleandPutinselitesunderstand
theyhavenofutureaslongasheisthere.ButheseemstobelievethatitstheWestsresponsibilitytoconvincethemofthatfact.

Putinisnomasterstrategist,Kasparovscoffs,callinghimanaggressivepokerplayerfacingweakoppositionfromaWestern
worldthathasbecomesoriskaversethatitwouldratherfoldthancallanybluff,nomatterhowgooditscardsare.

TheRussianpeople,however,areinthisgame,too.Somearefoldingtheircardsandfleeingthecountry.Otherskeepplaying,
evenifthedeckisstackedagainstthem.Theoverwhelmingmajority,ifyoubelieveRussianopinionpolls,arestillstickingwiththe
manwhodealsthecards.

Chess,however,isamorecomplexgameofstrategy.Asagrandmaster,Kasparovplayedtowin.Asapro-democracyactivistin
Russia,hescaughtinalosingstreak.HenowlivesinNewYork,afactthatrankles.

IoftensaidthatPutinwasaRussianproblemforRussiatosolve,hewrites,butthathewouldsoonbearegionalproblemand
thenaglobalproblemifhisambitionswereignored,adding:ItiscoldcomforttobetoldYouwereright!

----------Forwardedmessage----------
From:WalterDerzko<wderzko@pathcom.com>
Date:Sat,Dec19,2015at11:09AM
Subject:"IthinkPutinisplayingwith[America]likeaStradivarius-JebBush
To:1WalterZarycky<waz2102@caa.columbia.edu>,1WolodymyrZarycky<wzarcusur@gmail.com>,WalterDerzko
<wderzko@pathcom.com>
JebBush:PutinPlayingAmericaTheWayThatTrumpPlaysThePress

Thisisallagamefortheseguys,BushsaidoftheRussianpresidentsendorsementofhisRepublicanrival.

Dec.18,2015,at12:45p.m.

ChristopherMassie

BuzzFeedNewsReporter

JebBushsaidonThursdaythatRussianPresidentVladimirPutinsendorsementofhisopponentDonaldTrumpshowedthatPutin
wasplayingAmericathewaythatTrumpplaysthepress.

TheformerFloridaGov.madethecommentonMichaelMedvedsradioshow,afterthehostaskedhimabouttheRussianleaders
endorsementofBushsGOPrival.

IthinkPutinisplayingwithuslikeaStradivarius,Bushsaid,startingtoapplythesameanalogytoPutinthatheappliedto
Trumpearlierthismonth.Hesplayingus,America,thewaythatTrumpplaysthepress.Thisisallagamefortheseguys.Butwe
haveastakeintheMiddleEast.Wecantpullback.WecantbanallMuslimscomingintoourcountryandexpecttocreatea
coalitionwhichwouldbeessentialforthelong-termstabilityofSyriaandIraq.

BushalsocriticizedwhathecalledTrumpsapparentaffinityforPutin.

Andhisproposalsarejustcrazy,BushsaidofTrump.Imean,tosaythatyougetyourmilitaryadvicefromtheshows.To
suggestthatHillaryClintonwoulddoagoodjobnegotiatingwithIran,betterthananybodyelse.Thesearethethingsthathes
said.HehasastrongfeelingofapparentlyaffinitytowardsVladimirPutin,oneofthegreatdespotsofourtime.

http://www.buzzfeed.com/christophermassie/jeb-bush-putin-playing-america-the-way-that-trump-plays-the#.naWWGxlaA
 From: WayneAllensworth<swallen@1scom.net>
Senttime: 12/18/201509:20:06AM
To: WayneandStacyAllensworth<swallen@1scom.net>StacyAllensworth<stacy.allensworth@gmail.com>wayne.allensworth@gmail.com
Subject: InternetNotes18December2015
Attachments: IN18Dec15.doc

InternetNotes18December2015

Levadapollsontheeconomy
RussiawillnotobjecttoAssadsousterafterthepeaceprocessbegins
MoDsaystheSu-24blackboxwasdamaged
MorefromPeskovonChayka(SpinningtheFBKstoryNavalniyonwhathewoulddoifhewerePutin)
http://grani.ru/Politics/Russia/President/m.247021.html
LatyninaonwhyChaykasaidBrowderwasbehindtheFBKinvestigation
WPonMagnitskiy
*ReactionfromMagnitskiysmother,Browdertothere-openingofthecase
LatyninacommentsontheMagnitskiyscandal(LatyninapointstoSerdyukovintheMagnitskiyaffair)
Khodorkovskiyonanewconstitutionandregimechange
AnavalblockadeofCrimea?(BattleoverCrimeaassets)
MoreonPotapenkoandangrybusinessmenturningontheKremlin
UkrainesaysitwillnotrepaydebttoRussiaduethisweekend

Levadapollsontheeconomy

ThepollswereconductedinOctoberandNovember

http://www.levada.ru/2015/12/17/ekonomicheskij-krizis-i-potreblenie/

57%saytheyarebuyingcheaperversionsofbiggerticketitems(38%inDecember201463%inSeptember2010)58%say
theyareeconomizingoneverydayfooditems(37%70%)36%saytheyarespendinglessonentertainmentandvacationsor
simplynottakingthem(22%34%)18%saytheyhavedecidednottobuyacar,orhousing,orlandplots(11%12%)9%
arespendingsavings(7%12%)13%arecuttingspendingoneducationormedicaltreatment(4%19%)6%arentdoingany
ofthesethings(17%1%)

Isthereaneconomiccrisisunderwayornot?Definitelyyes36%(38%inSeptember28%inMarch38%inDecember2014)
Probably44%(39%46%41%)Definitelynot13%(14%15%10%)Probablynot2%(3%3%2%)Hardto
answer6%(7%7%9%)

Howlongdoyouthinkthecrisiswilllast?(Fromamongthosewhosaidtherewasacrisisunderway)2-3months--<1%in
October(1%inSeptember3%inMarch4%inDecember2014)6months5%(4%5%8%)Ayearorayearandahalf
19%(23%19%19%)Notlessthantwoyears22%(24%22%21%)Thecrisiswillbealongoneandthe
consequenceswilllastforyears21%(23%17%16%)Rightnow,itshardtosayhowlongitwilllastorhowdeepthecrisis
willbe23%(16%24%21%)

Whatportionofhouseholdincomedoesyourfamilyspendonfood?Lessthanhalf23%inNovember(28%inOctober28%in
June)Abouthalf40%(39%37%)Twothirds21%(19%21%)Almostallofit9%(7%7%)

Howwouldyouevaluatethesituationregardingpaymentofpensions,salaries,stipends,andbenefitsinyourcity/town/rayon
better,worse,ornochange?Better7%inNovember(9%inOctober)Worse38%(32%)Nochange49%(51%)
Hardtoanswer5%(8%)

RussiawillnotobjecttoAssadsousterafterthepeaceprocessbegins

http://www.themoscowtimes.com/news/article/russia-will-not-object-assad-ouster-after-syrian-war-ends/553211.html

RussiahasnoobjectionstoSyrianPresidentBasharAssad'sousterafterthepeaceprocessstartsinthecountry,Westerndiplomatssay,the
ReutersnewsagencyreportedFriday.

RussiahadbeenrepeatedlyvoicingitssupporttotheSyrianpresident,butsinceWesternpowers,SaudiArabiaandTurkeyhaveagreedthat
Assadcanstayinpowerduringthetransitionperiod,Kremlinhaschangeditsmind,awesterndiplomattoldReutersonconditionofanonymity.

"AndtheRussianshavegottothepointprivatelywheretheyacceptthatAssadwillhavegonebytheendofthistransition,they'rejustnot
preparedtosaythatpublicly,"diplomatsaid.

RussiahaschangeditspositionontheeveofthethirdroundofministerialtalksontheSyriancrisis.ThemeetingwilltakeplaceinNewYorkon
Friday.U.S.SecretaryofStateJohnKerryandRussianForeignMinisterSergeiLavrov,alongwiththeministersfrom16othercountrieswill
participate.

Heresmore:http://www.militarytimes.com/story/military/2015/12/18/russia-calling-shots-nations-lock-down-syria-plan/77548834/
WASHINGTONAstheU.S.andworldpowersgatheragaininanattempttoendSyria'scivilwar,Russiaappearstobecallingtheshots.

NationsmeetingFridayinNewYorkandtheU.N.willessentiallybenegotiatingaRussianplanfora"politicaltransition,"basedontheSyrian
government'sconsentandwithnoclearreferencetoPresidentBasharAssad'sdeparture.

Andastheylookforawaytosecureandenforceapeacethathasprovedalltooelusivesince2011,Russia'srecentmilitaryinterventionappearsto
beprovidingthekeyleverage.AsPresidentObamasaidearlierthismonth,rebelswhojointheprocesscouldenjoy"pocketsofcease-fire"where
theynolongerfaceSyrianorRussianbombs.Theimplicationwasthatthosewhorefusecouldstillbetargeted.

Inanyevent,diplomatsfromEastandWestsaythechancesofendingtheconflictbetweenAssad'smilitaryandmoderaterebelforcesarebetter
nowthanthey'vebeenforalongwhile.Allspeakofseizingthemomentumofseveralgroundbreakingmeetingsinrecentmonths.

Forthefirsttime,theriseoftheIslamicStategrouphastheU.S.,RussiaandevenswornenemiessuchasSaudiArabiaandIrancommittedtoa
blueprintforpeacenegotiationsandasetofprinciplesforSyria'sfuture.TheseareexpectedtobeendorsedbytheU.N.SecurityCouncilonFriday,
followingmeetingsamongforeignministersinNewYork.Thebodyhaspassednosuchresolutionpreviously.

Thereareothersignsofprogress.Theoppositionisfinalizingthemakeupofitsdelegationfortalkswiththegovernmentthataresupposedtostart
nextmonth.Jordanisclosetocompletingalistofmilitantgroupsthatcouldjoinaunitygovernment,andwhich,liketheIslamicStategroupandal-
Qaida,wouldbedeclaredterroristsandenemiesofall.

Still,"veryreal"gapsremain,SamanthaPower,theU.S.ambassadortotheUnitedNations,toldreportersthisweek.

Forone,theRussiandivisionof"terrorist"vs.legitimaterebelforcesdifferssignificantlyfromthatofU.S.andArabgovernments,diplomatssay.
AndnoagreementcanbereachedifRussiaisn'tsatisfied.

AnevenbiggerdivideconcernsAssadhimself,withWashingtondesperatetosecureaguaranteethathewilleventuallyleaveofficeinatransition,
havingabandonedObama'spreviousdemandthattheSyrianleaderstepdownimmediately.Russiahasspentthepastfiveyearsblockingany
internationalstrategyorU.N.resolutionthatwouldshowAssadthedoor.

MatthewRycroft,Britain'sU.N.ambassador,saidtheseissuesandthemechanicsofacease-firewillallbeonthetableFriday.ASecurityCouncil
resolutionontheSyrianpeaceprocess,hesaid,wouldbea"veryrareshowingofunity"forworldpowerswho'vebeenbitterlydividedevenas
deathtollshavesoaredpast300,000andmigrantcrisesandviolentattackshaveengulfedEuropeandbeyond.

Tothisday,theU.S.anditsEuropeanandAraballiesaresupportinganti-Assadrebelswithtraining,equipmentandfunds.Russiaisprovidingnot
onlydiplomaticandfinancialcovertoSyria'sgovernment,buttargetingAssad'smoderateopponentsinairstrikes,accordingtoWestern
governments.Meanwhile,IraniansoldiersandproxyHezbollahforcesaredyingonthebattlefieldalongsideAssad'stroops.

Nevertheless,topdiplomatssuchasSecretaryofStateJohnKerryhavefoundcauseforoptimismindeclarationsthatallarenowinterestedin
securingabroadpeacethatwouldallowtheworldtoconcentrateondefeatingIslamicStateextremists.Thegrouphasexploitedthewar'schaosto
seizelargepartsofSyriaandIraqforitsself-proclaimedcaliphate.

ThesharedcommitmentagainstIShasgovernmentsbelievingtheycansidesteptheirdisagreementsonAssadandothermatterstoendthekilling.
FortheU.S.,thathasmeantincreasinglyvaguestatementsonwhenAssadmighthavetorelinquishauthorityandevendeclaringtheopposition's
demandforhisimmediateousterlongAmerica'sownstancea"non-startingposition."

Inmanyways,theparametersoftheinternationalmediationwereframedearlyoninSyria'swarbydisagreementsbetweenWashingtonand
Moscow.Russiaprevailedinmanyofthesedisputes.

WhendiplomatsgatheredinGenevainJune2012tohashoutastrategy,U.N.peaceenvoyKofiAnnanwantedatransitionalgovernmentthat
wouldexclude"thosewhosecontinuedpresenceandparticipationwouldunderminethecredibilityofthetransitionandjeopardizestabilityand
reconciliation."

"ThatwascodeforexcludingAssad,"formerSecretaryofStateHillaryClinton,whobackedsuchlanguage,notedinherbook"HardChoices."

ButtheRussiansbalked,andalsopreventedtheinclusionofanypenaltiesfornoncompliance.

Asacompromise,ClintonsaidsheherselfputforwardtheideaofanewSyriangovernmentcomprisedofindividualschosenby"mutualconsent,"
believingthatanaccordalongsuchlineswouldleave"Assadandhiscronies...strippedoftheirauthority."TheRussianstookitasprovidingthe
Syrianleaderavetooveranyproposalforawould-bereplacement.

Theplanneverwentanywhere.AfterKerryreplacedClintonassecretaryofstate,thetalkwentfrom"changingAssad'scalculus"tosomething
closertoRussia'sposition:anacknowledgementthathewouldn'thavetogiveupthepresidencyon"DayOne"ofatransition.

WhendirecttalksbetweentheSyrianpartiesfinallyoccurredin2014,theyneverevengottoquestionsofleadership.Yetastheworldcommunity
nowtriesagain,theso-called"Genevacommunique"isstillacceptedasthebasisfordiplomacy.

TheU.S.hasalotridingonengineeringacease-fireandjump-startingSyria'stransition.

Obama,whohasruledoutanysignificantdeploymentofU.S.groundforces,hasfailedtobuildanAmerican-trained,localfightingforceorcajole
ArabpartnersintosendingtheirforcesintoSyriatodefeattheIslamicStategroup.WhileKurdishPeshmergaandArabmilitantshavefought
effectively,nooneseestheirnumbersorstrengthassufficienttoachievethemission.

TheU.S.mayhavegreaterluckifpeacebetweenSyria'sgovernmentandmainstreamrebelgroupsholds.Americanofficialshopeeachwouldthen
cooperateandturntheirgunsonIS,withregionalpowerssuchasSaudiArabiafillingtheremainingneedsforagroundforce.

It'sunclearifeveryonewouldbeonboard,orifRussiawouldviewsuchdevelopmentsinitsinterests.

MoDsaystheSu-24blackboxwasdamaged

http://www.themoscowtimes.com/news/article/black-box-of-downed-su-24-damaged--russian-defense-
ministry/553201.html
TheblackboxfromtheRussianSu-24fighter-bomberdownedbyTurkeyhasbeendamaged,saidNikolaiPrimak,headoftheDefenseMinistry
incidentinvestigationgroup,atabriefingwheretheboxwasopened,theInterfaxnewsagencyreportedFriday.

Wecanseethatontheupperplate,threeoftheeightmicrochipshaveclearlybeendamaged.Thattellsus,asonecansee,thattheflight
informationinthemismissing,Primaksaid.

Ministryofficialsexplainedthedamagesbysayingthattheblackboxwasstoredinthejet'srearpart,wheretheTurkishrockethit,theRIANovosti
newsagencyreported.

Allmemoryblocksfromtheblackboxwillbesenttothelaboratoryforfluoroscopystudiestocheckiftheyhavebeendamagedtoo,theagency
said.

ExpertsfromChinaandIndiawerepresentwhentheboxwasopened.MinistryofficialSergeyDronovtoldInterfaxthatexpertsfrom14countries
hadbeeninvited,butmostofthemrefusedtoparticipate.

ExpertsfromChina,UnitedStatesandBritainwillobservetheblackboxdatadecryptionprocess,Dronovsaid,RIANovostireported.

ThefinalresultsofthedecryptionarescheduledtobepublishedonDec.21,DefenseMinistryofficialssaidatthebriefing.

InlateNovember,aRussianSu-24militaryplanewasdownedbyanair-to-airmissilefromaTurkishF-16interceptorneartheTurkish-Syrianborder.
Whiletheplane'stwopilotsejected,onewasreportedlykilledbylocalrebelsduringhisdescent.TheotherpilotwasrescuedbyRussianand
Syrianmilitary.

MorefromPeskovonChayka(SpinningtheFBKstoryNavalniyonwhathewoulddoifhewerePutin)

http://grani.ru/Politics/Russia/President/m.247021.html

ThisisPeskovfromaRossiya-24TVinterviewpriortoPutinspressconference(Seeyesterdaysnotes)Therewasnothingnew
intheAnti-CorruptionFoundation(FBK)investigation,whichwasdoneonorder.Wesawsimilarchargesinthesummer,coming
fromotherpeople.Anyway,theclaimswereaboutChaykasgrownsons,notabouttheProsecutorGeneralandhisgrownsons
areofnointeresttous.Thereareother,moreimportantproblemstodealwiththeeconomy,socialproblems,foreignpolicy.
TherealagendaisquitedifferentMeanwhile,aKremlinsourceissayingvlasthasdevelopedastrategyfordealingwiththe
Chaykaaffair:forthenearterm,Chaykaisimmune.Therewillbeaminimalofficialreactiontothescandalandnoinquiryintothe
chargesmadeintheFBKfilm.ThestorywillhavenoimpactonwhetherChaykagetsreappointedasProsecutorGeneral
(Comment:HistermisupnextJune).Officially,theFBKinvestigationwillbecastasanorderbytheWest.Thecampaign
againstFBKfounderNavalniywillbeintensified.

NavalniypondersthescandalandtheKremlinslikelyresponse(asoutlinedabove):http://navalny.com/p/4619/Andthelikelihood
thatitishimandhisfamilywhowillbetargetedChaykawillremaininhispostbecauseitwasNavalniywhoattackedhimin
thecaseofthestupid,thievingYakunin,ittooktwoyearsbeforehewasdismissedafterNavalniyexposedhiscorruption.
NavalniysaysthatifhewereinPutinsplace,hewouldcallintheheadoftheFSBandhandhimoveradossieronChayka,then
instructtheFSBtoconductahuntfortraitorswithintheProsecutorsoffice.TheFSBwouldorchestrateaseriesofmedialeaks
ontheinvestigation.TheChaykasandtheircronieswouldbearrested,thepresidentsVTsIOMpollratingswouldsoar,
newspaperswouldwriteaboutNavalniyusingtheFSBforleaksKeepingChaykaasProsecutorGeneralmeanstaking
responsibilityfortheprotectionoftheTsapkovcriminalgang.Everydeputyandsenatorshoulddemandaparliamentary
investigation.Andanyonenotonboardwiththatwillbefacedbycandidatesinthe2016Dumaelectionsbackedbytheanti-
corruptionfoundationspreadingthefactthattheygaveimmunitytotheprotectorsoftheTsapkovgang

LatyninaonwhyChaykasaidBrowderwasbehindtheFBKinvestigation

http://www.novayagazeta.ru/columns/71189.html

ItsbecauseaUSfederalprosecutorhasbroughtsuitagainstaRussianbusinessman,DenisKatsyv,inaNewYorkcourt.
KatsyvsaccountsandrealestateholdingsintheUShavebeenfrozenhisnameisontheMagnitskiylistofRussians,officials
andothers,Magnitiskyclaimedweremakingoffwithstatefundsundertheguiseoftaxrebates.Magnitskiy,ofcourse,was
chargedwiththatcrimehimselfanddiedinaRussianjail.KatsyvhasbeenconnectedtoanumberofkeyfiguresintheMagnitskiy
affair,includingDmitriyKlyuyevandformerheadofRussianTaxInspectorate28,OlgaStepanova(Comment:FromwhatI
gather,Katsyevwaslaunderingthefundssiphonedoffbythegroupinvolvedinthetaxrebatescam,shiftingthe
moneytooverseasaccountsandbuyingassets).ButitappearsthatChaykasofficewillarguethatitwasBrowderandhis
groupwhichincludedMagnitskiywhomadeoffwithstatefunds,thenaccusedRussianofficialsofthat.

Comment:Heressomematerialfromthe8August2011notesthathelpsfilloutthepictureIvehadtore-edititto
keepfromgoingoffonthevariousrelatedthreadsofthestory,butIthinkitwillbehelpfultothosenotfamiliarwith
theMagnitskiyaffair.Iuseddifferentfontsthenandthestylewasabitdifferent,butIthinkitholdsup:

[WPonMagnitskiy

http://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/how-us-sanctions-can-promote-human-rights-in-russia/2011/08/04/gIQAunDC1I_story.html

LASTMONTHtheObamaadministrationdisclosedithadtakenasignificantsteptowardbalancingitspolicytowardRussia,whichhasfocused
heavilyonstrikingdealswiththeauthoritarianregimeofVladimirPutinandDmitryMedvedevwhilemostlyignoringissuesofcorruptionand
humanrights.InalettertoCongress,theStateDepartmentdisclosedthatseveraldozenRussianofficialsimplicatedinanotoriouscorruptioncase
thatledtothepersecutionanddeathofaRussianlawyerhadbeenbannedfromtravelingtotheUnitedStates.

ThattheadministrationwasrighttoactandthatmeasuressuchasvisabansmattertoforeigneliteshasbeenseeninRussiasreaction.At
first,Russianspokesmenissuedvague,emptythreatsofretaliation.Thenauthoritiesannouncedthattwoprisondoctorsimplicatedinthedeathof
thelawyer,SergeiMagnitsky,wouldbeprosecuted.Finally,governmentprosecutorssaidlastweekthattheyhadreopenedthecasebrought
againstMr.Magnitskythatledtohisimprisonment,mistreatmentanddeathin2009.*

Mostlikely,thenewinvestigationrepresentsanothercynicalmaneuverbytheRussianInteriorMinistry,whichhasmanagedtoprotectthepolice
officialsresponsibleforMr.MagnitskysdeathfortwoyearsdespitepublicpromisesofjusticebyMr.Medvedev.Thescaleofthecrimesandthe
blatancyofthecoveruparedeeplyrevealingofthenatureoftheRussianregime.Mr.Magnitskywastargetedafterhedisclosedthatagroupoftax
andpoliceofficialshadembezzled$230millioningovernmentfunds.Thesameofficialswhostolethemoneychargedhimwiththeembezzlement,
imprisonedhiminincreasinglyharshconditionsanddeniedhimmedicaltreatment.

Asithappens,Mr.MagnitskysemployerswereanAmericanlawfirmandaLondon-basedinvestortheyhavesincepostedvoluminousevidence
ontheInternetshowinghowpoliceandtaxofficialschanneledtensofmillionsofdollarsintoforeignrealestateandbankaccountsfollowingthe
embezzlement.AspecialhumanrightscouncilreportedtoMr.Medvedevlastmonththatthecasehadbeenmishandledandsingledoutasenior
policeofficialitsaidwasresponsible.YettheInteriorMinistrycontinuestomaintainthattherewasnowrongdoingandMr.Medvedevappears
powerlesstoactagainstthecorruptcabal.

PressurefromtheUnitedStatesandtheEuropeanUnionwhichisalsoconsideringsanctionsintheMagnitskycasecouldhelpthosein
RussiawhowanttocombatthecultureofcriminalitythathasspreadthroughoutgovernmentinthePutinera.ButtheObamaadministrations
actionwasreluctantitmovedunderpressurefromCongress,wherependinglegislationwouldrequireafreezeonassetsaswellasabanonvisas
forofficialsinvolvedintheMagnitskycaseandothermajorhumanrightscases.TheStateDepartmentsletterdisclosingthetravelbanurged
Congresstodropthebill,arguingitcouldcauseMoscowtoceasecooperatingonsanctionsagainstIranorintransportingmaterielto
Afghanistan.

AcceptingthatargumentwouldmeanagreeingwiththepropositionthattheresetofrelationswithRussiameansthatofficialsguiltyofcrimes
suchastheft,tortureandmurdermustbeallowedtotraveltotheUnitedStatesanddepositstolenfundshere.Infact,theKremlinwillact
accordingtoitsperceivedinterestsinIranandAfghanistan,regardlessofsuchdecisions.RussiawillneverbeareliableU.S.partneruntilcases
suchasthatofSergeiMagnitskyaresubjecttotheruleoflaw.

*ReactionfromMagnitskiysmother,Browdertothere-openingofthecase

PressRelease
ForImmediateDistribution

SergeiMagnitskysMotherReactstotheRussianInteriorMinistrysPlantoProsecuteHerDeadSon

5August2011Yesterday,theRussianInteriorMinistryannouncedthattheyplantoprosecuteSergeiMagnitskyforallegedtaxevasion.Sergei
MagnitskyhasbeendeadsinceNovember16,2009.Hehadbeenarrestedandtorturedtodeathinpolicecustodyafterhehadaccusedanumberof
InteriorMinistryofficersofperpetratingthelargesttaxfraudintheRussianhistory.Herepeatedlystatedfromcustodythatthecaseagainsthim
wasfabricatedbytheofficershehadtestifiedagainst.Noonehasbeenprosecutedforhistortureanddeathinthe20monthssincehisdeath.

"Toputamanontrialafterhewaskilled,whenhecannolongerdefendhimself,isanevilandbaseact.Itgoesagainstallhumanmorals,and
laws,"saidSergeismother,NataliaMagnitskaya.

"Idemandjusticeformysonandthateveryonewhoisresponsibleforhisdeatharenamedandprosecuted,"addedMrs.Magnitskaya.

Neverinmodernhistoryhasagovernmentbeensodesperatetocovertheirtracksthataftertheytortureandkillaman,theyprosecutehis
corpsetwoyearslater.Thisgoestoshowwhatabsoluteimpunityallowscorruptgovernmentstodo.Thereisaspecialplaceinhellforthese
typeofpeople,saidWilliamBrowder,CEOofHermitageCapital.

Lastmonth,followinganindependentinvestigation,theRussianPresidentsHumanRightsCouncilconcludedthat1)thearrestofSergei
MagnitskywascarriedoutillegallyincontraventionoftheEuropeanHumanRightsConvention,2)thecaseagainsthimwasfabricatedand
pursuedbythesameInteriorMinistryofficialshehadnamedinhistestimoniesforthe$230milliontheftfromtheRussianTreasury,and3)hewas
beatenimmediatelybeforehisdeathincustody.

ShortlyaftertheHumanRightsCouncilsfindingswerereleased,on14July2011,theRussianInteriorMinistryrejectedtheCouncilsconclusions
statingthatnowrongdoingwasfoundintheactionsoftheInteriorMinistryofficialsintheMagnitskycase.

Foradditionalinformationpleasecontact:

HermitageCapital
+442074401777
info@lawandorderinrussia.org
http://lawandorderinrussia.org

LatyninacommentsontheMagnitskiyscandal(LatyninapointstoSerdyukovintheMagnitskiyaffair)

http://www.echo.msk.ru/programs/code/799758-echo/

AsLatyninarelatestheMagnitskiycase,HermitageCapitalsBrowder,agreenmailer,naturallyattractedtheattentionoflawenforcementwhen
hepressuredstatecompanies,blackmailingthestate(Thoughtheblackmaildidimproveaccountingisstatecompaniesinsomeinstances).His
officeswereraidedandthedocumentationneededtotradethesharesofthreefirmsassociatedwithBrowderscompanywastaken.(Thethree
companiesParfenen,Makhaon,andRilandthemselveswereshellsusedstrictlyfortradingRussianshares)Thesedocumentswoundupinthe
handsofacriminalnamedMarkelov,whofiguredinoneofthecases(kidnapping/murder)ofaninvestigatorwhosenamewouldcomeupinthe
Magnitskiyaffair,Kuznetsov.Markelovarrangedforacourttodeclarethatthesefirmsweresufferingoperationallosses.Thesefirmsthen
approachedTaxInspectorate#28,headedbyOlgaStepanova,whosehusbandownedpropertyinDubai,amongotherthingsSoStepanova
signedthedocumentsauthorizingataxrebatetothesecompaniesof$5.4billion.Themoneywasplacedincertainbanks,themainonebeing
theUniversalSavingsBankthatbelongstoacertainKlyuyev,whohadfiguredinacaseinvolvingthetheftofcompanysharesinadealwith
Metallinvest.LatyninabelievesthatKlyuyevwasthemainorganizeroftheaffair.Butshealsothinksthatallofthefiguresshenamedwere
connectedinsomewaywithRenessansKapital.Klyuyevusedtoworkthere[Comment:WhatLatyninaseemstobesayingisthatthe
swindlersusedconnectionsinRenessansKapitaltopullofftheiroperationandthattheRKmanagementwassimplyindifferenttotheaffair
sinceitwasnottheirmoneythatwasbeingstolen.Thatdoesnotseemcredibletomeifitwasinvolvedinsomethinglikethis,Renessans
wouldwantakickback]HeritageknewwhatwasupandhadalreadylodgedacomplaintinOctober07.[Comment:WhatIveneverquite
understoodwaswhatwasgoingonwiththethreecompaniesaccordingtoLatyninasversionofthestory,thelawenforcementpeoplewho
eventuallyprosecutedMagnitskiyraidedBrowdersoffice,obtaineddocumentsthateffectivelygavethemcontrolofthosecompanies,Ithink,
andthentheyusedthosecompaniesasLatyninadescribedabove.DidntHeritageknowthatthedocumentswhatevertheywere,exactly
weregoneandthattheycouldbeusedinsuchaway?Isthathowtheycaughtontothetaxscheme?...]Thetransactionsandactualtheftdid
nottakeplaceuntilDecemberandthethievesknewthatHeritagehadlodgedacomplaint.Buttheycouldcallongiganticadministrative
resourcesandwereveryconfident.

Meanwhile,thethreecompaniesusedforthethefttransactionswerere-soldtoacertainRimmaStarova,borninChitain1938.[Comment:OK,
soshesafront,acover]Why?BecauseBrowderhadalreadysaidhewasrobbed,that$250millionhadbeenstolenfromthebudget.Starova
thensayshehadboughtthecompaniesandthatshefoundoutthattheyhadbeenusedtosteal,not$250million,but$5.4billionandthatshe
wantedaninvestigation.AndtheinvestigationdeterminedthatBrowderhadstolenthemoney.TheinvestigationcoveredforTaxInspector
StepanovaandchargedBrowderandMagnitskiy.InAugustof08,twomenwentatoaDHLofficeinLondonandsentoffapackage(toa
lawyernamedKhayretdinov)containingalltheoriginaldocumentationonthecompaniesusedinthetaxfraudscam,andwhenitgottoRussia,
therewasaraidonthelawyersofficeandthedocumentswereconfiscated.[Comment:Idontquiteunderstandthelawyersrole,butthiswas
evidentlyasetupbythecrookedlawenforcementofficerstoclaimtheyhadevidenceofBrowder/Magnitskiyscammingthetaxrefunds]So
theassetsbeingputtouseinthisoperationinclude,ifnotforeignintelligenceitself,atleastsomeofitsresources.Allofthistookplacebefore
thearrestofMagnitskiy.

ItwasobviousthattheinvestigatorsandStepanovawerebeingprotectedbysomeone.Who?Browderhassaidthatministersarebehind
this.WeknowthatStepanovaworkedinthetaxservicewhentheheadofthatwasthecurrentDefenseMinister,Serdyukov.Andshewentto
workatRosoboronpostavkawhenSerdyukovwentoverthedefenseministry.VlastisouttoprotectthesepeopleSurkovgotinontheactwhen
hethreatenedanendtoresetiftheMagnitskiylistwasadopted.]

Khodorkovskiyonanewconstitutionandregimechange

http://www.themoscowtimes.com/article/khodorkovsky-calls-for-regime-change-new-constitution/553048.html
MikhailKhodorkovsky,theformerYukosCEOandVladimirPutin'sbetenoire,whonowleadsthepro-democracyOpenRussiainitiative,has
publishedanarticleontheorganization'sofficialwebsiteinwhichhecallsforaredraftingoftheRussianconstitution-arguingthattheauthorities'
disregardforitsprovisionshasplungedthecountryintoaconstitutionalcrisis.
Today,theconstitutionisjustapieceofpaperasupposedsymboloffederalvalues,freedomanddemocracy.Inpractice,VladimirPutinandhis
circleuseandabuseitastheyseefit,hewrote,quotingasexamplestheextensionofthepresidentialtermfromfourtosixyearsin2008andthe
abolitionofdirectgubernatorialelectionsin2004.

HewentontoarguethattheconstitutionneededtobeamendedimmediatelytoexplicitlymentiontheRussianpeople'srighttorebelagainst
usurpers.

ItshouldthenbereplacedwithacompletelynewdraftonceRussiahasseentheintroductionofparliamentarydemocracy,withthecabinetchosen
bylawmakers,anddecentralization(withregionalauthoritiesmanagingtheirownbudgets),thearticlesaid.

TheOpenRussiainitiativewasworkingonbothamendmentproposalsandadraftofanewconstitution,theMeduza.ionewssitereported
Wednesday.

AnavalblockadeofCrimea?(BattleoverCrimeaassets)

http://www.themoscowtimes.com/news/article/naval-blockade-of-crimea-to-start-shortly--crimean-tatar-leaders/553046.html

AnavalblockadeoftheKerchStrait,separatingRussia-annexedCrimeafromtheKrasnodarregionintheRussianmainland,couldbeginattheend
of2015orthebeginningof2016,accordingtoLenurIslyamov,oneoftheleadersoftheMejlis,theCrimeanTatarrepresentativebody,theLenta.ru
websitewroteWednesdayquotinganinterviewgivenbyIslyamovtothe112UkraineTVchannel.

Ican'tgiveanydetails,butIwouldliketosaythatwehavebeenpreparingfor[launchingtheblockade]usingallthestrengthandresourceswe
have.Thesoonestpossibledateistheendof2015,orearly2016,hewasquotedassaying.

AccordingtoLenta.ru,IslyamovhadmentionedthepossibilityoflaunchinganavalblockaderepeatedlysincethestartofDecember.

Ukraine'sForeignMinistrypublishedonWednesdayastatementaccusingRussiaoflarge-scaleappropriationofpropertyandnaturalresources
intheBlackSearegion,referringtotwooilrigsworth$353.7millionstationedofftheUkrainiancoastnearOdessabeingtowedintoRussian
territorialwaters.

TheaccusationscameamiduncertaintyoverthefateoftheChernomorneftegazoilandgasdrillingcompany,anaffiliateofUkraine'soilgiant
NaftogazseizedbytheCrimeanregionalparliamentfollowingthepeninsula'sannexationbyRussiainMarch2014.

UkrainedeclaredthatitwouldcalloninternationalcourtstoordertheseizureofChernomorneftegazassets,towhichRussiaallegedlyresponded
bydispatchingitsnavytohelptowawaytheplatforms,theMeduza.ionewssitereportedWednesday.

MoreonPotapenkoandangrybusinessmenturningontheKremlin

Seethenotesfrom14December.

http://www.themoscowtimes.com/business/article/angry-russian-businessmen-turn-on-kremlin/553051.html

WhenRussianentrepreneurDmitryPotapenkoexplodedinrageattheMoscowEconomicForumhecouldnothaveknownhewouldbecome
anInternetsensation.

Andyetheisnotsurprised.

"Ididwhateveryonedreamsofdoingthemselves,"hesaid.

ThreebusinessmenPotapenko,hisneighborattheforumroundtable,farmbossPavelGrudinin,andCrimeanzoodirectorOlegZubkov
togethergatheredmorethan2millionhitsonYouTubewithvideosofspeecheslambastingtheauthorities.Thethreeworkindifferentbranches
ofbusiness,butareunitedintheircomplaintsofredtape,corruptionandthedeafearofthepoliticalelitetodemandsforreform.

Theyalsosaytheyareattheendoftheirtethers.

"Sometakeupaguntoshootofficials,ashappenedrecentlyinKrasnogorsksomegrababottleofvodkaandgodrinksomepacktheirsuitcases
andleavesomesitquietlyinprisonandsomecomeoutandloudlyandsay'What'sgoingonhere?We'refedup!'"Grudinin,headoftheLenin
StateFarm,toldTheMoscowTimes.

Inhisspeech,Potapenko,theownerofacarpetfactoryandseveralsupermarketsinRussiaandEurope,slammedtheabundanceofleviesandtaxes
and"criminal"importbansonWesternproduce,introducedinretaliationofsanctionsoverRussia'sroleintheUkrainecrisis.

OfficialsandmediahaveoftenblamedRussia'srecessiononexternalfactorsandanti-RussianpoliciesbytheWest.But,"It'snot[U.S.President]
BarackObamawhoisresponsibleforourprohibitivelyhighinterestrates,"Potapenkosaidattheforum.

TheoutburstwasarareinstanceofpublicrebellionfromanunexpectedsourcethatexposedthecracksinRussiansocietybehindthesky-high
ratingsofPresidentVladimirPutinandpatrioticfervorstirredupbyRussianmilitaryactionsinUkraineandSyria.

Antagonismbetweenauthoritiesandthebusinesssectorisnotnew,butmediaheadlineshavemostlyfocusedonstatementsfromexiledtycoons
andheadsofmajorcompanies.
Potapenko,GrudininandZubkovarenobigwigs.Theyrepresenttheaverageentrepreneursqueezedbybureaucracyacausethatordinary
Russianscanrelateto.

Withtheeconomyhitbylowoilpricesandsanctions,Russians'realincomeshavefallensharplyoverthepastyear.

Attheforum,PotapenkoalsoreferredtoPlatonanewtaxcollectionsystemfortruckersthathasledtothemostvisibleanti-governmentprotest
inyears.ThecompanycollectingthetaxisownedbythesonofArkadyRotenberg,abillionaireandPutin'sformerjudosparringpartner.

ForPotapenko,itrepresentsthestate'swillingnesstodigintoentrepreneurspocketsevenastheystruggletosurviveaneconomicslump.

Potapenkohasmadesimilarpublicstatementsbefore,andGrudinintoldTheMoscowTimeshehadopenlycomplainedofbureaucracyandredtape
"foryears."

Buttheoverwhelmingpopularityofthevideosoftheirspeechesisunprecedentedproofthattheirwordshavefoundnewresonanceinsociety,
Grudininsaid.

"Suddenlyit'sbecometopnews,butearliernoonewastalkingaboutit,"hesaid.

"ThereisalotofnegativeenergybuildingupamongRussianbusinessmen,"Grudinin,whoisalsodeputychairmanoftheAgriculture
DevelopmentCommitteeattheChamberofCommerceandIndustry,toldTheMoscowTimes."I'mtryingtopreventarevolt."

Thoughfrustratedbyredtape,muchofthebusinessmen'strueangeristargetedatthecontinuedpracticeamongRussianofficialsofbending
therulestotheirownadvantage.

Attheforum,Potanpenkosaidthattheofficialsconductingchecksonbusinesswerenow"significantlyworse"thanthe"exceptionalbastards"
ofthechaotic1990s.

OlegZubkov,thefounderanddirectoroftheSkazkaandTaiganzoosinCrimeatheBlackSeapeninsulaannexedbyRussiafromUkrainelast
yearisfacingathree-yearjailtermforthedeathsofthreerareBengaltigercubsathiszooafterthepeninsulasufferedablackout.

Localprosecutorsaccusehimofneglectingthecubsandsaybeforethetrialhasbegunthathe'llgotojail.Zubkovdeniestheaccusations
andsaysitispartofaslandercampaignagainsthimtotakeawayhisbusiness.

ZubkovtoldTheMoscowTimeshistroublesbeganwhen"unprepared"peopleweregivenpositionsofpowerinthechaosthatensuedfollowing
theannexationofCrimeaintoRussia.Runningabusinessbecameamatterof"whethertheylikeyouornot,"hesaid.

"[They]aren'tthinkingaboutCrimea,aboutthe[business]climate,whateverlossestheyarecausinginvestors,butonlytheirpersonalambitions,"
hesaid.

Zubkovsaidhisbusiness,oneofthefirstprivatezoostobesetupfollowingthefalloftheSovietUnion,hadcontributedmillionsofrublesintax
moneybuthadbeenplaguedbychecksandfabricatedaccusations.

Heisnowusinghisblog,YouTubeandsocialmediatodrawattentiontowhatheconsidersisastateoflawlessnessonthepeninsulasince
theannexationaneventthatisasourceofnationalpridetoRussians.

"Todaysomethingabsolutelyincredibleisgoingon,"hesaid."Theywanttoputmeinprison,takeawaytheparks,Idon'tevenseeanyprospects
ofhowtogetoutofthissituation,"hesaid.

"Whywouldyouwanttodestroyapersonwhoispayingtaxes?"Zubkovasked.

TheaccusationsofcorruptionandpocketliningcomeinthedirectaftermathofareportbyoppositionleaderAlexeiNavalny'sAnti-Corruption
FundthatincriminatedcolleaguesofRussia'sGeneralProsecutorYuryChaikaindirtybusinessdealingswithnotoriousgangsters.

WhenGrudininattheMoscowEconomicForumsaidthatmanyofthetopstateofficialssittingintheaudienceduringarecentspeechbyPutin,
"shoulddefinitelybeservingtime,asweallknow,"manythoughthewasreferringtotheChaikacase.

GrudininsaidhedidnotknowaboutChaikaspecifically,butwassureaboutthedirtyconsciencesofmanyotherhigh-rankingofficialssittinginthe
audience.

"TherearepeoplewhomIknowpersonally,andhaveknownformanyyearsandusedtocallmetheirfriend.AndIknowtheytakehugebribes.
Theyarenowmembersofdifferentfederalagencies.Iknowhowmuchthey'vestolen,"hesaid.

Exasperationwithrampantcorruptionwasamajorcontributingfactorinawaveofanti-Kremlinproteststhatfollowedsupposedrigging
ofparliamentaryelectionsinlate2011.

ThepopularityofPotapenkoandGrudinin'sprotests,rightafterNavalny'sallegations,suggestthatsentimentsareagainrunninghigh.

ButGrudinindeniedtheywerelookingtotriggeramassprotest.

"Wearen'tofficeplanktonthatgotoBolotnayaSquareandstandtherewavingwhiteribbons,"Grudininsaid,referringtothemostfamousvenue
andsymboloftheprotestmovement.

OfficialreactionstoPotapenko'sspeechhavebeenmixed.

"Potapenkohitthenailonthehead,"SergeiFirsikov,alocalDumadeputyfromtherulingUnitedRussiapartyintheKaliningradregion,saidata
forum,theNovyKaliningradnewswebsitereported.

AlexanderBrechalov,avice-presidentoftheOporaRossiibusinessassociation,describedPotapenko'sspeechas"outrageous"andsaid
Potapenkowasanattentionseekerwith"verylittleunderstandingofeconomics."

Duringhisspeech,PotapenkoclashedwithVladimirGutyonov,anotherDumadeputyfromUnitedRussiaanddeputychairmanoftheDuma's
CommitteeonIndustry,whowassatattheforum'sroundtable.MirroringanatmosphereinwhichcriticizingtheKremlinisincreasinglyperceivedas
treason,GutyonovtoldTheMoscowTimesthatPotapenkowasabusingeconomicargumentstoserveunspecifiedpoliticalaims.

Attheforum,Potapenkousedametaphorcomparingtherelationshipbetweenbusinessandauthoritiestothatofacowandabutcher,who,
"holdingaknifeatitsthroat,asks:'Whatdowehavetoday,beeformilk?'"

SpeakingtotheMoscowTimes,Gutyonovretaliatedandsaid:"Ifthecowisnotabletodistinguishthebutcherfromthefarmerthatisasign
ofmentaldisease."

"Thefarmerfeedsthecow,butifheseestoolittlemilkheisboundtoaskthequestion:Areyougoingtostartproducingsomemilkorareyoujust
goingtoshitallovertheplace?"

UkrainesaysitwillnotrepaydebttoRussiaduethisweekend

http://www.businessinsider.com/ap-ukraine-says-it-wont-repay-russian-debt-due-by-weekend-2015-12

Ukrainewon'tmakea$3billiondebtrepaymentduetoRussiathisweekendbecauseofMoscow'srefusaltoaccepttermsalreadyofferedtoother
internationalcreditors,itsprimeministersaidFriday.

The"moratorium"onoutstandingdebtrepaymentstoRussiaannouncedbyUkrainianPrimeMinisterArseniyYatsenyukeffectivelymeansthat
UkraineisdefaultingonthedebtdueSunday.

ItcouldalsojeopardizecrucialloansthatUkrainehasbeenreceivingfroma$17.5billionbailoutdealwiththeInternationalMonetaryFund.

It'sthelatestspatbetweenthetwoneighborsfollowingarunofgassupplydisputes,Russia'sannexationoftheCrimeanpeninsulaandsupportfor
separatistsineasternUkraine.

"AfterRussiarefusedtoacceptourofferdespiteourattemptstoreacharestructuringdeal,thegovernmentisimposingamoratoriumonthe
repaymentofthe$3billiondebttoRussia,"Yatsenyuksaidatatelevisedgovernmentsession."WearereadyforcourtproceedingswithRussia."

HedidnotindicatewhenUkrainewouldbereadytorepaythedebt.MoscowhaspreviouslysaiditwilltakeUkrainetocourtifitfailstopayon
time.

Alongsidethesovereigndebt,thegovernmenthasdecidedtoputonholdtherepaymentofacombineddebtof$507millionthattwoUkrainian
state-ownedenterprisesowetoRussianbanks.

ItisunclearatthispointhowUkraine'simminentdefaultwillaffectthefour-yearIMFbailoutastheFundrecentlysaiditcancontinuetolendto
countriesbehindwithdebtpaymentsaslongasthecountryistrying"ingoodfaith"toreachadeal.

Still,WilliamJackson,asenioremergingmarketseconomistatLondon-basedCapitalEconomistsconsultancy,saidFriday'sannouncement"does
feedintobroaderconcernsthatthecountry'sIMFprogramisnowatrisk."

HesaidtheIMF'srecentconcernsabouttheUkrainianparliament'sdecisiontorejectaproposedbudgetforthenextyearandanewtaxcodecould
indicatea"growingriskthatthecountry'sbailoutcouldbeputonhold."

Ukraine'seconomyhasstruggledoverthepastfewyearsandthecountryhasnegotiatedrepaymenttermswithcreditors,butnotwithRussia.

InNovember,RussianPresidentVladimirPutinproposedadebtrestructuring,sayingMoscowwouldbewillingtoagreetopaymentsof$1billiona
yearbetween2016and2018.

Ukraineturneddowntheoffer,sayingitcannotlegallyofferRussiaabetterdealthantheoneithasnegotiatedwithotherdebtholders.

Thatdealhasseencountriesaccepta20percentwrite-downoftheirUkrainianbondholdings,amovewhichhascutUkraine'ssovereigndebtfrom
$19billionto$15.5billion.

RelationsbetweenthetwoneighborssouredafterRussiaannexedtheCrimeanpeninsulainMarch2014andthrewitsbackingbehindseparatist
rebelsineasternUkraine.UkrainianleadershaveaccusedMoscowofsendingtroopsandweaponstotheeast,aclaimtheKremlinhasvehemently
denied.

Kievhassoughttogiveapoliticaldimensiontothedebt,hintingthatRussiaboughtUkrainianbondsinDecember2013inanactofclandestine
briberyofthenPresidentViktorYanukovychwhowasfacingmassiveanti-governmentprotestsatthetime.

Kiev-basedanalystVadimKarasyovisconfidentthatthedefaultontheUkrainianbondswillnotmeanacertainruinforUkraine.

"Yatsenyukhasclearlyruntheideaofthemoratoriumbythemaincreditorsandreceivedtheirguarantees,"KarasyovtoldTheAssociatedPress.

ForeigninvestorsinUkrainearenotlikelytobeaffected,accordingtoKarasyov,"becauseyoucancountthemononehandasitis."


Thisemailisfreefromvirusesandmalwarebecauseavast!Antivirusprotectionisactive.
 From: WayneAllensworth<swallen@1scom.net>
Senttime: 12/18/201509:20:06AM
To: WayneandStacyAllensworth<swallen@1scom.net>StacyAllensworth<stacy.allensworth@gmail.com>wayne.allensworth@gmail.com
Subject: InternetNotes18December2015
Attachments: IN18Dec15.doc

InternetNotes18December2015

Levadapollsontheeconomy
RussiawillnotobjecttoAssadsousterafterthepeaceprocessbegins
MoDsaystheSu-24blackboxwasdamaged
MorefromPeskovonChayka(SpinningtheFBKstoryNavalniyonwhathewoulddoifhewerePutin)
http://grani.ru/Politics/Russia/President/m.247021.html
LatyninaonwhyChaykasaidBrowderwasbehindtheFBKinvestigation
WPonMagnitskiy
*ReactionfromMagnitskiysmother,Browdertothere-openingofthecase
LatyninacommentsontheMagnitskiyscandal(LatyninapointstoSerdyukovintheMagnitskiyaffair)
Khodorkovskiyonanewconstitutionandregimechange
AnavalblockadeofCrimea?(BattleoverCrimeaassets)
MoreonPotapenkoandangrybusinessmenturningontheKremlin
UkrainesaysitwillnotrepaydebttoRussiaduethisweekend

Levadapollsontheeconomy

ThepollswereconductedinOctoberandNovember

http://www.levada.ru/2015/12/17/ekonomicheskij-krizis-i-potreblenie/

57%saytheyarebuyingcheaperversionsofbiggerticketitems(38%inDecember201463%inSeptember2010)58%say
theyareeconomizingoneverydayfooditems(37%70%)36%saytheyarespendinglessonentertainmentandvacationsor
simplynottakingthem(22%34%)18%saytheyhavedecidednottobuyacar,orhousing,orlandplots(11%12%)9%
arespendingsavings(7%12%)13%arecuttingspendingoneducationormedicaltreatment(4%19%)6%arentdoingany
ofthesethings(17%1%)

Isthereaneconomiccrisisunderwayornot?Definitelyyes36%(38%inSeptember28%inMarch38%inDecember2014)
Probably44%(39%46%41%)Definitelynot13%(14%15%10%)Probablynot2%(3%3%2%)Hardto
answer6%(7%7%9%)

Howlongdoyouthinkthecrisiswilllast?(Fromamongthosewhosaidtherewasacrisisunderway)2-3months--<1%in
October(1%inSeptember3%inMarch4%inDecember2014)6months5%(4%5%8%)Ayearorayearandahalf
19%(23%19%19%)Notlessthantwoyears22%(24%22%21%)Thecrisiswillbealongoneandthe
consequenceswilllastforyears21%(23%17%16%)Rightnow,itshardtosayhowlongitwilllastorhowdeepthecrisis
willbe23%(16%24%21%)

Whatportionofhouseholdincomedoesyourfamilyspendonfood?Lessthanhalf23%inNovember(28%inOctober28%in
June)Abouthalf40%(39%37%)Twothirds21%(19%21%)Almostallofit9%(7%7%)

Howwouldyouevaluatethesituationregardingpaymentofpensions,salaries,stipends,andbenefitsinyourcity/town/rayon
better,worse,ornochange?Better7%inNovember(9%inOctober)Worse38%(32%)Nochange49%(51%)
Hardtoanswer5%(8%)

RussiawillnotobjecttoAssadsousterafterthepeaceprocessbegins

http://www.themoscowtimes.com/news/article/russia-will-not-object-assad-ouster-after-syrian-war-ends/553211.html

RussiahasnoobjectionstoSyrianPresidentBasharAssad'sousterafterthepeaceprocessstartsinthecountry,Westerndiplomatssay,the
ReutersnewsagencyreportedFriday.

RussiahadbeenrepeatedlyvoicingitssupporttotheSyrianpresident,butsinceWesternpowers,SaudiArabiaandTurkeyhaveagreedthat
Assadcanstayinpowerduringthetransitionperiod,Kremlinhaschangeditsmind,awesterndiplomattoldReutersonconditionofanonymity.

"AndtheRussianshavegottothepointprivatelywheretheyacceptthatAssadwillhavegonebytheendofthistransition,they'rejustnot
preparedtosaythatpublicly,"diplomatsaid.

RussiahaschangeditspositionontheeveofthethirdroundofministerialtalksontheSyriancrisis.ThemeetingwilltakeplaceinNewYorkon
Friday.U.S.SecretaryofStateJohnKerryandRussianForeignMinisterSergeiLavrov,alongwiththeministersfrom16othercountrieswill
participate.

Heresmore:http://www.militarytimes.com/story/military/2015/12/18/russia-calling-shots-nations-lock-down-syria-plan/77548834/
WASHINGTONAstheU.S.andworldpowersgatheragaininanattempttoendSyria'scivilwar,Russiaappearstobecallingtheshots.

NationsmeetingFridayinNewYorkandtheU.N.willessentiallybenegotiatingaRussianplanfora"politicaltransition,"basedontheSyrian
government'sconsentandwithnoclearreferencetoPresidentBasharAssad'sdeparture.

Andastheylookforawaytosecureandenforceapeacethathasprovedalltooelusivesince2011,Russia'srecentmilitaryinterventionappearsto
beprovidingthekeyleverage.AsPresidentObamasaidearlierthismonth,rebelswhojointheprocesscouldenjoy"pocketsofcease-fire"where
theynolongerfaceSyrianorRussianbombs.Theimplicationwasthatthosewhorefusecouldstillbetargeted.

Inanyevent,diplomatsfromEastandWestsaythechancesofendingtheconflictbetweenAssad'smilitaryandmoderaterebelforcesarebetter
nowthanthey'vebeenforalongwhile.Allspeakofseizingthemomentumofseveralgroundbreakingmeetingsinrecentmonths.

Forthefirsttime,theriseoftheIslamicStategrouphastheU.S.,RussiaandevenswornenemiessuchasSaudiArabiaandIrancommittedtoa
blueprintforpeacenegotiationsandasetofprinciplesforSyria'sfuture.TheseareexpectedtobeendorsedbytheU.N.SecurityCouncilonFriday,
followingmeetingsamongforeignministersinNewYork.Thebodyhaspassednosuchresolutionpreviously.

Thereareothersignsofprogress.Theoppositionisfinalizingthemakeupofitsdelegationfortalkswiththegovernmentthataresupposedtostart
nextmonth.Jordanisclosetocompletingalistofmilitantgroupsthatcouldjoinaunitygovernment,andwhich,liketheIslamicStategroupandal-
Qaida,wouldbedeclaredterroristsandenemiesofall.

Still,"veryreal"gapsremain,SamanthaPower,theU.S.ambassadortotheUnitedNations,toldreportersthisweek.

Forone,theRussiandivisionof"terrorist"vs.legitimaterebelforcesdifferssignificantlyfromthatofU.S.andArabgovernments,diplomatssay.
AndnoagreementcanbereachedifRussiaisn'tsatisfied.

AnevenbiggerdivideconcernsAssadhimself,withWashingtondesperatetosecureaguaranteethathewilleventuallyleaveofficeinatransition,
havingabandonedObama'spreviousdemandthattheSyrianleaderstepdownimmediately.Russiahasspentthepastfiveyearsblockingany
internationalstrategyorU.N.resolutionthatwouldshowAssadthedoor.

MatthewRycroft,Britain'sU.N.ambassador,saidtheseissuesandthemechanicsofacease-firewillallbeonthetableFriday.ASecurityCouncil
resolutionontheSyrianpeaceprocess,hesaid,wouldbea"veryrareshowingofunity"forworldpowerswho'vebeenbitterlydividedevenas
deathtollshavesoaredpast300,000andmigrantcrisesandviolentattackshaveengulfedEuropeandbeyond.

Tothisday,theU.S.anditsEuropeanandAraballiesaresupportinganti-Assadrebelswithtraining,equipmentandfunds.Russiaisprovidingnot
onlydiplomaticandfinancialcovertoSyria'sgovernment,buttargetingAssad'smoderateopponentsinairstrikes,accordingtoWestern
governments.Meanwhile,IraniansoldiersandproxyHezbollahforcesaredyingonthebattlefieldalongsideAssad'stroops.

Nevertheless,topdiplomatssuchasSecretaryofStateJohnKerryhavefoundcauseforoptimismindeclarationsthatallarenowinterestedin
securingabroadpeacethatwouldallowtheworldtoconcentrateondefeatingIslamicStateextremists.Thegrouphasexploitedthewar'schaosto
seizelargepartsofSyriaandIraqforitsself-proclaimedcaliphate.

ThesharedcommitmentagainstIShasgovernmentsbelievingtheycansidesteptheirdisagreementsonAssadandothermatterstoendthekilling.
FortheU.S.,thathasmeantincreasinglyvaguestatementsonwhenAssadmighthavetorelinquishauthorityandevendeclaringtheopposition's
demandforhisimmediateousterlongAmerica'sownstancea"non-startingposition."

Inmanyways,theparametersoftheinternationalmediationwereframedearlyoninSyria'swarbydisagreementsbetweenWashingtonand
Moscow.Russiaprevailedinmanyofthesedisputes.

WhendiplomatsgatheredinGenevainJune2012tohashoutastrategy,U.N.peaceenvoyKofiAnnanwantedatransitionalgovernmentthat
wouldexclude"thosewhosecontinuedpresenceandparticipationwouldunderminethecredibilityofthetransitionandjeopardizestabilityand
reconciliation."

"ThatwascodeforexcludingAssad,"formerSecretaryofStateHillaryClinton,whobackedsuchlanguage,notedinherbook"HardChoices."

ButtheRussiansbalked,andalsopreventedtheinclusionofanypenaltiesfornoncompliance.

Asacompromise,ClintonsaidsheherselfputforwardtheideaofanewSyriangovernmentcomprisedofindividualschosenby"mutualconsent,"
believingthatanaccordalongsuchlineswouldleave"Assadandhiscronies...strippedoftheirauthority."TheRussianstookitasprovidingthe
Syrianleaderavetooveranyproposalforawould-bereplacement.

Theplanneverwentanywhere.AfterKerryreplacedClintonassecretaryofstate,thetalkwentfrom"changingAssad'scalculus"tosomething
closertoRussia'sposition:anacknowledgementthathewouldn'thavetogiveupthepresidencyon"DayOne"ofatransition.

WhendirecttalksbetweentheSyrianpartiesfinallyoccurredin2014,theyneverevengottoquestionsofleadership.Yetastheworldcommunity
nowtriesagain,theso-called"Genevacommunique"isstillacceptedasthebasisfordiplomacy.

TheU.S.hasalotridingonengineeringacease-fireandjump-startingSyria'stransition.

Obama,whohasruledoutanysignificantdeploymentofU.S.groundforces,hasfailedtobuildanAmerican-trained,localfightingforceorcajole
ArabpartnersintosendingtheirforcesintoSyriatodefeattheIslamicStategroup.WhileKurdishPeshmergaandArabmilitantshavefought
effectively,nooneseestheirnumbersorstrengthassufficienttoachievethemission.

TheU.S.mayhavegreaterluckifpeacebetweenSyria'sgovernmentandmainstreamrebelgroupsholds.Americanofficialshopeeachwouldthen
cooperateandturntheirgunsonIS,withregionalpowerssuchasSaudiArabiafillingtheremainingneedsforagroundforce.

It'sunclearifeveryonewouldbeonboard,orifRussiawouldviewsuchdevelopmentsinitsinterests.

MoDsaystheSu-24blackboxwasdamaged

http://www.themoscowtimes.com/news/article/black-box-of-downed-su-24-damaged--russian-defense-
ministry/553201.html
TheblackboxfromtheRussianSu-24fighter-bomberdownedbyTurkeyhasbeendamaged,saidNikolaiPrimak,headoftheDefenseMinistry
incidentinvestigationgroup,atabriefingwheretheboxwasopened,theInterfaxnewsagencyreportedFriday.

Wecanseethatontheupperplate,threeoftheeightmicrochipshaveclearlybeendamaged.Thattellsus,asonecansee,thattheflight
informationinthemismissing,Primaksaid.

Ministryofficialsexplainedthedamagesbysayingthattheblackboxwasstoredinthejet'srearpart,wheretheTurkishrockethit,theRIANovosti
newsagencyreported.

Allmemoryblocksfromtheblackboxwillbesenttothelaboratoryforfluoroscopystudiestocheckiftheyhavebeendamagedtoo,theagency
said.

ExpertsfromChinaandIndiawerepresentwhentheboxwasopened.MinistryofficialSergeyDronovtoldInterfaxthatexpertsfrom14countries
hadbeeninvited,butmostofthemrefusedtoparticipate.

ExpertsfromChina,UnitedStatesandBritainwillobservetheblackboxdatadecryptionprocess,Dronovsaid,RIANovostireported.

ThefinalresultsofthedecryptionarescheduledtobepublishedonDec.21,DefenseMinistryofficialssaidatthebriefing.

InlateNovember,aRussianSu-24militaryplanewasdownedbyanair-to-airmissilefromaTurkishF-16interceptorneartheTurkish-Syrianborder.
Whiletheplane'stwopilotsejected,onewasreportedlykilledbylocalrebelsduringhisdescent.TheotherpilotwasrescuedbyRussianand
Syrianmilitary.

MorefromPeskovonChayka(SpinningtheFBKstoryNavalniyonwhathewoulddoifhewerePutin)

http://grani.ru/Politics/Russia/President/m.247021.html

ThisisPeskovfromaRossiya-24TVinterviewpriortoPutinspressconference(Seeyesterdaysnotes)Therewasnothingnew
intheAnti-CorruptionFoundation(FBK)investigation,whichwasdoneonorder.Wesawsimilarchargesinthesummer,coming
fromotherpeople.Anyway,theclaimswereaboutChaykasgrownsons,notabouttheProsecutorGeneralandhisgrownsons
areofnointeresttous.Thereareother,moreimportantproblemstodealwiththeeconomy,socialproblems,foreignpolicy.
TherealagendaisquitedifferentMeanwhile,aKremlinsourceissayingvlasthasdevelopedastrategyfordealingwiththe
Chaykaaffair:forthenearterm,Chaykaisimmune.Therewillbeaminimalofficialreactiontothescandalandnoinquiryintothe
chargesmadeintheFBKfilm.ThestorywillhavenoimpactonwhetherChaykagetsreappointedasProsecutorGeneral
(Comment:HistermisupnextJune).Officially,theFBKinvestigationwillbecastasanorderbytheWest.Thecampaign
againstFBKfounderNavalniywillbeintensified.

NavalniypondersthescandalandtheKremlinslikelyresponse(asoutlinedabove):http://navalny.com/p/4619/Andthelikelihood
thatitishimandhisfamilywhowillbetargetedChaykawillremaininhispostbecauseitwasNavalniywhoattackedhimin
thecaseofthestupid,thievingYakunin,ittooktwoyearsbeforehewasdismissedafterNavalniyexposedhiscorruption.
NavalniysaysthatifhewereinPutinsplace,hewouldcallintheheadoftheFSBandhandhimoveradossieronChayka,then
instructtheFSBtoconductahuntfortraitorswithintheProsecutorsoffice.TheFSBwouldorchestrateaseriesofmedialeaks
ontheinvestigation.TheChaykasandtheircronieswouldbearrested,thepresidentsVTsIOMpollratingswouldsoar,
newspaperswouldwriteaboutNavalniyusingtheFSBforleaksKeepingChaykaasProsecutorGeneralmeanstaking
responsibilityfortheprotectionoftheTsapkovcriminalgang.Everydeputyandsenatorshoulddemandaparliamentary
investigation.Andanyonenotonboardwiththatwillbefacedbycandidatesinthe2016Dumaelectionsbackedbytheanti-
corruptionfoundationspreadingthefactthattheygaveimmunitytotheprotectorsoftheTsapkovgang

LatyninaonwhyChaykasaidBrowderwasbehindtheFBKinvestigation

http://www.novayagazeta.ru/columns/71189.html

ItsbecauseaUSfederalprosecutorhasbroughtsuitagainstaRussianbusinessman,DenisKatsyv,inaNewYorkcourt.
KatsyvsaccountsandrealestateholdingsintheUShavebeenfrozenhisnameisontheMagnitskiylistofRussians,officials
andothers,Magnitiskyclaimedweremakingoffwithstatefundsundertheguiseoftaxrebates.Magnitskiy,ofcourse,was
chargedwiththatcrimehimselfanddiedinaRussianjail.KatsyvhasbeenconnectedtoanumberofkeyfiguresintheMagnitskiy
affair,includingDmitriyKlyuyevandformerheadofRussianTaxInspectorate28,OlgaStepanova(Comment:FromwhatI
gather,Katsyevwaslaunderingthefundssiphonedoffbythegroupinvolvedinthetaxrebatescam,shiftingthe
moneytooverseasaccountsandbuyingassets).ButitappearsthatChaykasofficewillarguethatitwasBrowderandhis
groupwhichincludedMagnitskiywhomadeoffwithstatefunds,thenaccusedRussianofficialsofthat.

Comment:Heressomematerialfromthe8August2011notesthathelpsfilloutthepictureIvehadtore-edititto
keepfromgoingoffonthevariousrelatedthreadsofthestory,butIthinkitwillbehelpfultothosenotfamiliarwith
theMagnitskiyaffair.Iuseddifferentfontsthenandthestylewasabitdifferent,butIthinkitholdsup:

[WPonMagnitskiy

http://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/how-us-sanctions-can-promote-human-rights-in-russia/2011/08/04/gIQAunDC1I_story.html

LASTMONTHtheObamaadministrationdisclosedithadtakenasignificantsteptowardbalancingitspolicytowardRussia,whichhasfocused
heavilyonstrikingdealswiththeauthoritarianregimeofVladimirPutinandDmitryMedvedevwhilemostlyignoringissuesofcorruptionand
humanrights.InalettertoCongress,theStateDepartmentdisclosedthatseveraldozenRussianofficialsimplicatedinanotoriouscorruptioncase
thatledtothepersecutionanddeathofaRussianlawyerhadbeenbannedfromtravelingtotheUnitedStates.

ThattheadministrationwasrighttoactandthatmeasuressuchasvisabansmattertoforeigneliteshasbeenseeninRussiasreaction.At
first,Russianspokesmenissuedvague,emptythreatsofretaliation.Thenauthoritiesannouncedthattwoprisondoctorsimplicatedinthedeathof
thelawyer,SergeiMagnitsky,wouldbeprosecuted.Finally,governmentprosecutorssaidlastweekthattheyhadreopenedthecasebrought
againstMr.Magnitskythatledtohisimprisonment,mistreatmentanddeathin2009.*

Mostlikely,thenewinvestigationrepresentsanothercynicalmaneuverbytheRussianInteriorMinistry,whichhasmanagedtoprotectthepolice
officialsresponsibleforMr.MagnitskysdeathfortwoyearsdespitepublicpromisesofjusticebyMr.Medvedev.Thescaleofthecrimesandthe
blatancyofthecoveruparedeeplyrevealingofthenatureoftheRussianregime.Mr.Magnitskywastargetedafterhedisclosedthatagroupoftax
andpoliceofficialshadembezzled$230millioningovernmentfunds.Thesameofficialswhostolethemoneychargedhimwiththeembezzlement,
imprisonedhiminincreasinglyharshconditionsanddeniedhimmedicaltreatment.

Asithappens,Mr.MagnitskysemployerswereanAmericanlawfirmandaLondon-basedinvestortheyhavesincepostedvoluminousevidence
ontheInternetshowinghowpoliceandtaxofficialschanneledtensofmillionsofdollarsintoforeignrealestateandbankaccountsfollowingthe
embezzlement.AspecialhumanrightscouncilreportedtoMr.Medvedevlastmonththatthecasehadbeenmishandledandsingledoutasenior
policeofficialitsaidwasresponsible.YettheInteriorMinistrycontinuestomaintainthattherewasnowrongdoingandMr.Medvedevappears
powerlesstoactagainstthecorruptcabal.

PressurefromtheUnitedStatesandtheEuropeanUnionwhichisalsoconsideringsanctionsintheMagnitskycasecouldhelpthosein
RussiawhowanttocombatthecultureofcriminalitythathasspreadthroughoutgovernmentinthePutinera.ButtheObamaadministrations
actionwasreluctantitmovedunderpressurefromCongress,wherependinglegislationwouldrequireafreezeonassetsaswellasabanonvisas
forofficialsinvolvedintheMagnitskycaseandothermajorhumanrightscases.TheStateDepartmentsletterdisclosingthetravelbanurged
Congresstodropthebill,arguingitcouldcauseMoscowtoceasecooperatingonsanctionsagainstIranorintransportingmaterielto
Afghanistan.

AcceptingthatargumentwouldmeanagreeingwiththepropositionthattheresetofrelationswithRussiameansthatofficialsguiltyofcrimes
suchastheft,tortureandmurdermustbeallowedtotraveltotheUnitedStatesanddepositstolenfundshere.Infact,theKremlinwillact
accordingtoitsperceivedinterestsinIranandAfghanistan,regardlessofsuchdecisions.RussiawillneverbeareliableU.S.partneruntilcases
suchasthatofSergeiMagnitskyaresubjecttotheruleoflaw.

*ReactionfromMagnitskiysmother,Browdertothere-openingofthecase

PressRelease
ForImmediateDistribution

SergeiMagnitskysMotherReactstotheRussianInteriorMinistrysPlantoProsecuteHerDeadSon

5August2011Yesterday,theRussianInteriorMinistryannouncedthattheyplantoprosecuteSergeiMagnitskyforallegedtaxevasion.Sergei
MagnitskyhasbeendeadsinceNovember16,2009.Hehadbeenarrestedandtorturedtodeathinpolicecustodyafterhehadaccusedanumberof
InteriorMinistryofficersofperpetratingthelargesttaxfraudintheRussianhistory.Herepeatedlystatedfromcustodythatthecaseagainsthim
wasfabricatedbytheofficershehadtestifiedagainst.Noonehasbeenprosecutedforhistortureanddeathinthe20monthssincehisdeath.

"Toputamanontrialafterhewaskilled,whenhecannolongerdefendhimself,isanevilandbaseact.Itgoesagainstallhumanmorals,and
laws,"saidSergeismother,NataliaMagnitskaya.

"Idemandjusticeformysonandthateveryonewhoisresponsibleforhisdeatharenamedandprosecuted,"addedMrs.Magnitskaya.

Neverinmodernhistoryhasagovernmentbeensodesperatetocovertheirtracksthataftertheytortureandkillaman,theyprosecutehis
corpsetwoyearslater.Thisgoestoshowwhatabsoluteimpunityallowscorruptgovernmentstodo.Thereisaspecialplaceinhellforthese
typeofpeople,saidWilliamBrowder,CEOofHermitageCapital.

Lastmonth,followinganindependentinvestigation,theRussianPresidentsHumanRightsCouncilconcludedthat1)thearrestofSergei
MagnitskywascarriedoutillegallyincontraventionoftheEuropeanHumanRightsConvention,2)thecaseagainsthimwasfabricatedand
pursuedbythesameInteriorMinistryofficialshehadnamedinhistestimoniesforthe$230milliontheftfromtheRussianTreasury,and3)hewas
beatenimmediatelybeforehisdeathincustody.

ShortlyaftertheHumanRightsCouncilsfindingswerereleased,on14July2011,theRussianInteriorMinistryrejectedtheCouncilsconclusions
statingthatnowrongdoingwasfoundintheactionsoftheInteriorMinistryofficialsintheMagnitskycase.

Foradditionalinformationpleasecontact:

HermitageCapital
+442074401777
info@lawandorderinrussia.org
http://lawandorderinrussia.org

LatyninacommentsontheMagnitskiyscandal(LatyninapointstoSerdyukovintheMagnitskiyaffair)

http://www.echo.msk.ru/programs/code/799758-echo/

AsLatyninarelatestheMagnitskiycase,HermitageCapitalsBrowder,agreenmailer,naturallyattractedtheattentionoflawenforcementwhen
hepressuredstatecompanies,blackmailingthestate(Thoughtheblackmaildidimproveaccountingisstatecompaniesinsomeinstances).His
officeswereraidedandthedocumentationneededtotradethesharesofthreefirmsassociatedwithBrowderscompanywastaken.(Thethree
companiesParfenen,Makhaon,andRilandthemselveswereshellsusedstrictlyfortradingRussianshares)Thesedocumentswoundupinthe
handsofacriminalnamedMarkelov,whofiguredinoneofthecases(kidnapping/murder)ofaninvestigatorwhosenamewouldcomeupinthe
Magnitskiyaffair,Kuznetsov.Markelovarrangedforacourttodeclarethatthesefirmsweresufferingoperationallosses.Thesefirmsthen
approachedTaxInspectorate#28,headedbyOlgaStepanova,whosehusbandownedpropertyinDubai,amongotherthingsSoStepanova
signedthedocumentsauthorizingataxrebatetothesecompaniesof$5.4billion.Themoneywasplacedincertainbanks,themainonebeing
theUniversalSavingsBankthatbelongstoacertainKlyuyev,whohadfiguredinacaseinvolvingthetheftofcompanysharesinadealwith
Metallinvest.LatyninabelievesthatKlyuyevwasthemainorganizeroftheaffair.Butshealsothinksthatallofthefiguresshenamedwere
connectedinsomewaywithRenessansKapital.Klyuyevusedtoworkthere[Comment:WhatLatyninaseemstobesayingisthatthe
swindlersusedconnectionsinRenessansKapitaltopullofftheiroperationandthattheRKmanagementwassimplyindifferenttotheaffair
sinceitwasnottheirmoneythatwasbeingstolen.Thatdoesnotseemcredibletomeifitwasinvolvedinsomethinglikethis,Renessans
wouldwantakickback]HeritageknewwhatwasupandhadalreadylodgedacomplaintinOctober07.[Comment:WhatIveneverquite
understoodwaswhatwasgoingonwiththethreecompaniesaccordingtoLatyninasversionofthestory,thelawenforcementpeoplewho
eventuallyprosecutedMagnitskiyraidedBrowdersoffice,obtaineddocumentsthateffectivelygavethemcontrolofthosecompanies,Ithink,
andthentheyusedthosecompaniesasLatyninadescribedabove.DidntHeritageknowthatthedocumentswhatevertheywere,exactly
weregoneandthattheycouldbeusedinsuchaway?Isthathowtheycaughtontothetaxscheme?...]Thetransactionsandactualtheftdid
nottakeplaceuntilDecemberandthethievesknewthatHeritagehadlodgedacomplaint.Buttheycouldcallongiganticadministrative
resourcesandwereveryconfident.

Meanwhile,thethreecompaniesusedforthethefttransactionswerere-soldtoacertainRimmaStarova,borninChitain1938.[Comment:OK,
soshesafront,acover]Why?BecauseBrowderhadalreadysaidhewasrobbed,that$250millionhadbeenstolenfromthebudget.Starova
thensayshehadboughtthecompaniesandthatshefoundoutthattheyhadbeenusedtosteal,not$250million,but$5.4billionandthatshe
wantedaninvestigation.AndtheinvestigationdeterminedthatBrowderhadstolenthemoney.TheinvestigationcoveredforTaxInspector
StepanovaandchargedBrowderandMagnitskiy.InAugustof08,twomenwentatoaDHLofficeinLondonandsentoffapackage(toa
lawyernamedKhayretdinov)containingalltheoriginaldocumentationonthecompaniesusedinthetaxfraudscam,andwhenitgottoRussia,
therewasaraidonthelawyersofficeandthedocumentswereconfiscated.[Comment:Idontquiteunderstandthelawyersrole,butthiswas
evidentlyasetupbythecrookedlawenforcementofficerstoclaimtheyhadevidenceofBrowder/Magnitskiyscammingthetaxrefunds]So
theassetsbeingputtouseinthisoperationinclude,ifnotforeignintelligenceitself,atleastsomeofitsresources.Allofthistookplacebefore
thearrestofMagnitskiy.

ItwasobviousthattheinvestigatorsandStepanovawerebeingprotectedbysomeone.Who?Browderhassaidthatministersarebehind
this.WeknowthatStepanovaworkedinthetaxservicewhentheheadofthatwasthecurrentDefenseMinister,Serdyukov.Andshewentto
workatRosoboronpostavkawhenSerdyukovwentoverthedefenseministry.VlastisouttoprotectthesepeopleSurkovgotinontheactwhen
hethreatenedanendtoresetiftheMagnitskiylistwasadopted.]

Khodorkovskiyonanewconstitutionandregimechange

http://www.themoscowtimes.com/article/khodorkovsky-calls-for-regime-change-new-constitution/553048.html
MikhailKhodorkovsky,theformerYukosCEOandVladimirPutin'sbetenoire,whonowleadsthepro-democracyOpenRussiainitiative,has
publishedanarticleontheorganization'sofficialwebsiteinwhichhecallsforaredraftingoftheRussianconstitution-arguingthattheauthorities'
disregardforitsprovisionshasplungedthecountryintoaconstitutionalcrisis.
Today,theconstitutionisjustapieceofpaperasupposedsymboloffederalvalues,freedomanddemocracy.Inpractice,VladimirPutinandhis
circleuseandabuseitastheyseefit,hewrote,quotingasexamplestheextensionofthepresidentialtermfromfourtosixyearsin2008andthe
abolitionofdirectgubernatorialelectionsin2004.

HewentontoarguethattheconstitutionneededtobeamendedimmediatelytoexplicitlymentiontheRussianpeople'srighttorebelagainst
usurpers.

ItshouldthenbereplacedwithacompletelynewdraftonceRussiahasseentheintroductionofparliamentarydemocracy,withthecabinetchosen
bylawmakers,anddecentralization(withregionalauthoritiesmanagingtheirownbudgets),thearticlesaid.

TheOpenRussiainitiativewasworkingonbothamendmentproposalsandadraftofanewconstitution,theMeduza.ionewssitereported
Wednesday.

AnavalblockadeofCrimea?(BattleoverCrimeaassets)

http://www.themoscowtimes.com/news/article/naval-blockade-of-crimea-to-start-shortly--crimean-tatar-leaders/553046.html

AnavalblockadeoftheKerchStrait,separatingRussia-annexedCrimeafromtheKrasnodarregionintheRussianmainland,couldbeginattheend
of2015orthebeginningof2016,accordingtoLenurIslyamov,oneoftheleadersoftheMejlis,theCrimeanTatarrepresentativebody,theLenta.ru
websitewroteWednesdayquotinganinterviewgivenbyIslyamovtothe112UkraineTVchannel.

Ican'tgiveanydetails,butIwouldliketosaythatwehavebeenpreparingfor[launchingtheblockade]usingallthestrengthandresourceswe
have.Thesoonestpossibledateistheendof2015,orearly2016,hewasquotedassaying.

AccordingtoLenta.ru,IslyamovhadmentionedthepossibilityoflaunchinganavalblockaderepeatedlysincethestartofDecember.

Ukraine'sForeignMinistrypublishedonWednesdayastatementaccusingRussiaoflarge-scaleappropriationofpropertyandnaturalresources
intheBlackSearegion,referringtotwooilrigsworth$353.7millionstationedofftheUkrainiancoastnearOdessabeingtowedintoRussian
territorialwaters.

TheaccusationscameamiduncertaintyoverthefateoftheChernomorneftegazoilandgasdrillingcompany,anaffiliateofUkraine'soilgiant
NaftogazseizedbytheCrimeanregionalparliamentfollowingthepeninsula'sannexationbyRussiainMarch2014.

UkrainedeclaredthatitwouldcalloninternationalcourtstoordertheseizureofChernomorneftegazassets,towhichRussiaallegedlyresponded
bydispatchingitsnavytohelptowawaytheplatforms,theMeduza.ionewssitereportedWednesday.

MoreonPotapenkoandangrybusinessmenturningontheKremlin

Seethenotesfrom14December.

http://www.themoscowtimes.com/business/article/angry-russian-businessmen-turn-on-kremlin/553051.html

WhenRussianentrepreneurDmitryPotapenkoexplodedinrageattheMoscowEconomicForumhecouldnothaveknownhewouldbecome
anInternetsensation.

Andyetheisnotsurprised.

"Ididwhateveryonedreamsofdoingthemselves,"hesaid.

ThreebusinessmenPotapenko,hisneighborattheforumroundtable,farmbossPavelGrudinin,andCrimeanzoodirectorOlegZubkov
togethergatheredmorethan2millionhitsonYouTubewithvideosofspeecheslambastingtheauthorities.Thethreeworkindifferentbranches
ofbusiness,butareunitedintheircomplaintsofredtape,corruptionandthedeafearofthepoliticalelitetodemandsforreform.

Theyalsosaytheyareattheendoftheirtethers.

"Sometakeupaguntoshootofficials,ashappenedrecentlyinKrasnogorsksomegrababottleofvodkaandgodrinksomepacktheirsuitcases
andleavesomesitquietlyinprisonandsomecomeoutandloudlyandsay'What'sgoingonhere?We'refedup!'"Grudinin,headoftheLenin
StateFarm,toldTheMoscowTimes.

Inhisspeech,Potapenko,theownerofacarpetfactoryandseveralsupermarketsinRussiaandEurope,slammedtheabundanceofleviesandtaxes
and"criminal"importbansonWesternproduce,introducedinretaliationofsanctionsoverRussia'sroleintheUkrainecrisis.

OfficialsandmediahaveoftenblamedRussia'srecessiononexternalfactorsandanti-RussianpoliciesbytheWest.But,"It'snot[U.S.President]
BarackObamawhoisresponsibleforourprohibitivelyhighinterestrates,"Potapenkosaidattheforum.

TheoutburstwasarareinstanceofpublicrebellionfromanunexpectedsourcethatexposedthecracksinRussiansocietybehindthesky-high
ratingsofPresidentVladimirPutinandpatrioticfervorstirredupbyRussianmilitaryactionsinUkraineandSyria.

Antagonismbetweenauthoritiesandthebusinesssectorisnotnew,butmediaheadlineshavemostlyfocusedonstatementsfromexiledtycoons
andheadsofmajorcompanies.
Potapenko,GrudininandZubkovarenobigwigs.Theyrepresenttheaverageentrepreneursqueezedbybureaucracyacausethatordinary
Russianscanrelateto.

Withtheeconomyhitbylowoilpricesandsanctions,Russians'realincomeshavefallensharplyoverthepastyear.

Attheforum,PotapenkoalsoreferredtoPlatonanewtaxcollectionsystemfortruckersthathasledtothemostvisibleanti-governmentprotest
inyears.ThecompanycollectingthetaxisownedbythesonofArkadyRotenberg,abillionaireandPutin'sformerjudosparringpartner.

ForPotapenko,itrepresentsthestate'swillingnesstodigintoentrepreneurspocketsevenastheystruggletosurviveaneconomicslump.

Potapenkohasmadesimilarpublicstatementsbefore,andGrudinintoldTheMoscowTimeshehadopenlycomplainedofbureaucracyandredtape
"foryears."

Buttheoverwhelmingpopularityofthevideosoftheirspeechesisunprecedentedproofthattheirwordshavefoundnewresonanceinsociety,
Grudininsaid.

"Suddenlyit'sbecometopnews,butearliernoonewastalkingaboutit,"hesaid.

"ThereisalotofnegativeenergybuildingupamongRussianbusinessmen,"Grudinin,whoisalsodeputychairmanoftheAgriculture
DevelopmentCommitteeattheChamberofCommerceandIndustry,toldTheMoscowTimes."I'mtryingtopreventarevolt."

Thoughfrustratedbyredtape,muchofthebusinessmen'strueangeristargetedatthecontinuedpracticeamongRussianofficialsofbending
therulestotheirownadvantage.

Attheforum,Potanpenkosaidthattheofficialsconductingchecksonbusinesswerenow"significantlyworse"thanthe"exceptionalbastards"
ofthechaotic1990s.

OlegZubkov,thefounderanddirectoroftheSkazkaandTaiganzoosinCrimeatheBlackSeapeninsulaannexedbyRussiafromUkrainelast
yearisfacingathree-yearjailtermforthedeathsofthreerareBengaltigercubsathiszooafterthepeninsulasufferedablackout.

Localprosecutorsaccusehimofneglectingthecubsandsaybeforethetrialhasbegunthathe'llgotojail.Zubkovdeniestheaccusations
andsaysitispartofaslandercampaignagainsthimtotakeawayhisbusiness.

ZubkovtoldTheMoscowTimeshistroublesbeganwhen"unprepared"peopleweregivenpositionsofpowerinthechaosthatensuedfollowing
theannexationofCrimeaintoRussia.Runningabusinessbecameamatterof"whethertheylikeyouornot,"hesaid.

"[They]aren'tthinkingaboutCrimea,aboutthe[business]climate,whateverlossestheyarecausinginvestors,butonlytheirpersonalambitions,"
hesaid.

Zubkovsaidhisbusiness,oneofthefirstprivatezoostobesetupfollowingthefalloftheSovietUnion,hadcontributedmillionsofrublesintax
moneybuthadbeenplaguedbychecksandfabricatedaccusations.

Heisnowusinghisblog,YouTubeandsocialmediatodrawattentiontowhatheconsidersisastateoflawlessnessonthepeninsulasince
theannexationaneventthatisasourceofnationalpridetoRussians.

"Todaysomethingabsolutelyincredibleisgoingon,"hesaid."Theywanttoputmeinprison,takeawaytheparks,Idon'tevenseeanyprospects
ofhowtogetoutofthissituation,"hesaid.

"Whywouldyouwanttodestroyapersonwhoispayingtaxes?"Zubkovasked.

TheaccusationsofcorruptionandpocketliningcomeinthedirectaftermathofareportbyoppositionleaderAlexeiNavalny'sAnti-Corruption
FundthatincriminatedcolleaguesofRussia'sGeneralProsecutorYuryChaikaindirtybusinessdealingswithnotoriousgangsters.

WhenGrudininattheMoscowEconomicForumsaidthatmanyofthetopstateofficialssittingintheaudienceduringarecentspeechbyPutin,
"shoulddefinitelybeservingtime,asweallknow,"manythoughthewasreferringtotheChaikacase.

GrudininsaidhedidnotknowaboutChaikaspecifically,butwassureaboutthedirtyconsciencesofmanyotherhigh-rankingofficialssittinginthe
audience.

"TherearepeoplewhomIknowpersonally,andhaveknownformanyyearsandusedtocallmetheirfriend.AndIknowtheytakehugebribes.
Theyarenowmembersofdifferentfederalagencies.Iknowhowmuchthey'vestolen,"hesaid.

Exasperationwithrampantcorruptionwasamajorcontributingfactorinawaveofanti-Kremlinproteststhatfollowedsupposedrigging
ofparliamentaryelectionsinlate2011.

ThepopularityofPotapenkoandGrudinin'sprotests,rightafterNavalny'sallegations,suggestthatsentimentsareagainrunninghigh.

ButGrudinindeniedtheywerelookingtotriggeramassprotest.

"Wearen'tofficeplanktonthatgotoBolotnayaSquareandstandtherewavingwhiteribbons,"Grudininsaid,referringtothemostfamousvenue
andsymboloftheprotestmovement.

OfficialreactionstoPotapenko'sspeechhavebeenmixed.

"Potapenkohitthenailonthehead,"SergeiFirsikov,alocalDumadeputyfromtherulingUnitedRussiapartyintheKaliningradregion,saidata
forum,theNovyKaliningradnewswebsitereported.

AlexanderBrechalov,avice-presidentoftheOporaRossiibusinessassociation,describedPotapenko'sspeechas"outrageous"andsaid
Potapenkowasanattentionseekerwith"verylittleunderstandingofeconomics."

Duringhisspeech,PotapenkoclashedwithVladimirGutyonov,anotherDumadeputyfromUnitedRussiaanddeputychairmanoftheDuma's
CommitteeonIndustry,whowassatattheforum'sroundtable.MirroringanatmosphereinwhichcriticizingtheKremlinisincreasinglyperceivedas
treason,GutyonovtoldTheMoscowTimesthatPotapenkowasabusingeconomicargumentstoserveunspecifiedpoliticalaims.

Attheforum,Potapenkousedametaphorcomparingtherelationshipbetweenbusinessandauthoritiestothatofacowandabutcher,who,
"holdingaknifeatitsthroat,asks:'Whatdowehavetoday,beeformilk?'"

SpeakingtotheMoscowTimes,Gutyonovretaliatedandsaid:"Ifthecowisnotabletodistinguishthebutcherfromthefarmerthatisasign
ofmentaldisease."

"Thefarmerfeedsthecow,butifheseestoolittlemilkheisboundtoaskthequestion:Areyougoingtostartproducingsomemilkorareyoujust
goingtoshitallovertheplace?"

UkrainesaysitwillnotrepaydebttoRussiaduethisweekend

http://www.businessinsider.com/ap-ukraine-says-it-wont-repay-russian-debt-due-by-weekend-2015-12

Ukrainewon'tmakea$3billiondebtrepaymentduetoRussiathisweekendbecauseofMoscow'srefusaltoaccepttermsalreadyofferedtoother
internationalcreditors,itsprimeministersaidFriday.

The"moratorium"onoutstandingdebtrepaymentstoRussiaannouncedbyUkrainianPrimeMinisterArseniyYatsenyukeffectivelymeansthat
UkraineisdefaultingonthedebtdueSunday.

ItcouldalsojeopardizecrucialloansthatUkrainehasbeenreceivingfroma$17.5billionbailoutdealwiththeInternationalMonetaryFund.

It'sthelatestspatbetweenthetwoneighborsfollowingarunofgassupplydisputes,Russia'sannexationoftheCrimeanpeninsulaandsupportfor
separatistsineasternUkraine.

"AfterRussiarefusedtoacceptourofferdespiteourattemptstoreacharestructuringdeal,thegovernmentisimposingamoratoriumonthe
repaymentofthe$3billiondebttoRussia,"Yatsenyuksaidatatelevisedgovernmentsession."WearereadyforcourtproceedingswithRussia."

HedidnotindicatewhenUkrainewouldbereadytorepaythedebt.MoscowhaspreviouslysaiditwilltakeUkrainetocourtifitfailstopayon
time.

Alongsidethesovereigndebt,thegovernmenthasdecidedtoputonholdtherepaymentofacombineddebtof$507millionthattwoUkrainian
state-ownedenterprisesowetoRussianbanks.

ItisunclearatthispointhowUkraine'simminentdefaultwillaffectthefour-yearIMFbailoutastheFundrecentlysaiditcancontinuetolendto
countriesbehindwithdebtpaymentsaslongasthecountryistrying"ingoodfaith"toreachadeal.

Still,WilliamJackson,asenioremergingmarketseconomistatLondon-basedCapitalEconomistsconsultancy,saidFriday'sannouncement"does
feedintobroaderconcernsthatthecountry'sIMFprogramisnowatrisk."

HesaidtheIMF'srecentconcernsabouttheUkrainianparliament'sdecisiontorejectaproposedbudgetforthenextyearandanewtaxcodecould
indicatea"growingriskthatthecountry'sbailoutcouldbeputonhold."

Ukraine'seconomyhasstruggledoverthepastfewyearsandthecountryhasnegotiatedrepaymenttermswithcreditors,butnotwithRussia.

InNovember,RussianPresidentVladimirPutinproposedadebtrestructuring,sayingMoscowwouldbewillingtoagreetopaymentsof$1billiona
yearbetween2016and2018.

Ukraineturneddowntheoffer,sayingitcannotlegallyofferRussiaabetterdealthantheoneithasnegotiatedwithotherdebtholders.

Thatdealhasseencountriesaccepta20percentwrite-downoftheirUkrainianbondholdings,amovewhichhascutUkraine'ssovereigndebtfrom
$19billionto$15.5billion.

RelationsbetweenthetwoneighborssouredafterRussiaannexedtheCrimeanpeninsulainMarch2014andthrewitsbackingbehindseparatist
rebelsineasternUkraine.UkrainianleadershaveaccusedMoscowofsendingtroopsandweaponstotheeast,aclaimtheKremlinhasvehemently
denied.

Kievhassoughttogiveapoliticaldimensiontothedebt,hintingthatRussiaboughtUkrainianbondsinDecember2013inanactofclandestine
briberyofthenPresidentViktorYanukovychwhowasfacingmassiveanti-governmentprotestsatthetime.

Kiev-basedanalystVadimKarasyovisconfidentthatthedefaultontheUkrainianbondswillnotmeanacertainruinforUkraine.

"Yatsenyukhasclearlyruntheideaofthemoratoriumbythemaincreditorsandreceivedtheirguarantees,"KarasyovtoldTheAssociatedPress.

ForeigninvestorsinUkrainearenotlikelytobeaffected,accordingtoKarasyov,"becauseyoucancountthemononehandasitis."


Thisemailisfreefromvirusesandmalwarebecauseavast!Antivirusprotectionisactive.
IN18Dec15.doc

Internet Notes 18 December 2015

Levada polls on the economy ........................................................................................... 2

Russia will not object to Assads ouster after the peace process begins .................. 2
MoD says the Su-24 black box was damaged ............................................................ 5
More from Peskov on Chayka (Spinning the FBK story; Navalniy on what he would
do if he were Putin) ....................................................................................................... 5
http://grani.ru/Politics/Russia/President/m.247021.html .................................................... 5
Latynina on why Chayka said Browder was behind the FBK investigation ................... 6
WP on Magnitskiy ............................................................................................................... 7
*Reaction from Magnitskiys mother, Browder to the re-opening of the case ............... 8
Latynina comments on the Magnitskiy scandal (Latynina points to Serdyukov in the
Magnitskiy affair)............................................................................................................ 8
Khodorkovskiy on a new constitution and regime change ........................................... 9
A naval blockade of Crimea? (Battle over Crimea assets) .......................................... 10
More on Potapenko and angry businessmen turning on the Kremlin ................... 10
Ukraine says it will not repay debt to Russia due this weekend ................................. 13
IN18Dec15.doc

Levada polls on the economy

The polls were conducted in October and November

http://www.levada.ru/2015/12/17/ekonomicheskij-krizis-i-potreblenie/
57% say they are buying cheaper versions of bigger ticket items (38% in December
2014; 63% in September 2010)58% say they are economizing on everyday food items
(37%; 70%)36% say they are spending less on entertainment and vacations or simply
not taking them (22%; 34%)18% say they have decided not to buy a car, or housing, or
land plots (11%; 12%)9% are spending savings (7%; 12%)13% are cutting spending
on education or medical treatment (4%; 19%)6% arent doing any of these things
(17%; 1%)

Is there an economic crisis underway or not? Definitely yes36% (38% in September;

28% in March; 38% in December 2014)Probably44% (39%; 46%;
41%)Definitely not13% (14%; 15%; 10%)Probably not2% (3%; 3%;
2%)Hard to answer6% (7%; 7%; 9%)

How long do you think the crisis will last? (From among those who said there was a
crisis underway) 2-3 months--<1% in October (1% in September; 3% in March; 4% in
December 2014)6 months5% (4%; 5%; 8%)A year or a year and a half19%
(23%; 19%; 19%)Not less than two years22% (24%; 22%; 21%)The crisis will be
a long one and the consequences will last for years21% (23%; 17%; 16%)Right
now, its hard to say how long it will last or how deep the crisis will be23% (16%;
24%; 21%)

What portion of household income does your family spend on food? Less than half
23% in November (28% in October; 28% in June)About half40% (39%;
37%)Two thirds21% (19%; 21%)Almost all of it9% (7%; 7%)

How would you evaluate the situation regarding payment of pensions, salaries, stipends,
and benefits in your city/town/rayonbetter, worse, or no change? Better7% in
November (9% in October)Worse38% (32%)No change49% (51%)Hard to
answer5% (8%)

Russia will not object to Assads ouster after the peace process begins

http://www.themoscowtimes.com/news/article/russia-will-not-object-assad-ouster-after-
syrian-war-ends/553211.html

Russia has no objections to Syrian President Bashar Assad's ouster after the peace process starts in the
country, Western diplomats say, the Reuters news agency reported Friday.
IN18Dec15.doc

Russia had been repeatedly voicing its support to the Syrian president, but since Western powers, Saudi
Arabia and Turkey have agreed that Assad can stay in power during the transition period, Kremlin has
changed its mind, a western diplomat told Reuters on condition of anonymity.

"And the Russians have got to the point privately where they accept that Assad will have gone by the end
of this transition, they're just not prepared to say that publicly," diplomat said.

Russia has changed its position on the eve of the third round of ministerial talks on the Syrian crisis. The
meeting will take place in New York on Friday. U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry and Russian Foreign
Minister Sergei Lavrov, along with the ministers from 16 other countries will participate.

Heres more: http://www.militarytimes.com/story/military/2015/12/18/russia-calling-shots-nations-lock-

down-syria-plan/77548834/

WASHINGTON As the U.S. and world powers gather again in an attempt to end Syria's civil war,
Russia appears to be calling the shots.

Nations meeting Friday in New York and the U.N. will essentially be negotiating a Russian plan for a
"political transition," based on the Syrian government's consent and with no clear reference to President
Bashar Assad's departure.

And as they look for a way to secure and enforce a peace that has proved all too elusive since 2011,
Russia's recent military intervention appears to be providing the key leverage. As President Obama said
earlier this month, rebels who join the process could enjoy "pockets of cease-fire" where they no longer
face Syrian or Russian bombs. The implication was that those who refuse could still be targeted.

In any event, diplomats from East and West say the chances of ending the conflict between Assad's military
and moderate rebel forces are better now than they've been for a long while. All speak of seizing the
momentum of several groundbreaking meetings in recent months.

For the first time, the rise of the Islamic State group has the U.S., Russia and even sworn enemies such as
Saudi Arabia and Iran committed to a blueprint for peace negotiations and a set of principles for Syria's
future. These are expected to be endorsed by the U.N. Security Council on Friday, following meetings
among foreign ministers in New York. The body has passed no such resolution previously.

There are other signs of progress. The opposition is finalizing the makeup of its delegation for talks with
the government that are supposed to start next month. Jordan is close to completing a list of militant groups
that could join a unity government, and which, like the Islamic State group and al-Qaida, would be declared
terrorists and enemies of all.

Still, "very real" gaps remain, Samantha Power, the U.S. ambassador to the United Nations, told reporters
this week.

For one, the Russian division of "terrorist" vs. legitimate rebel forces differs significantly from that of U.S.
and Arab governments, diplomats say. And no agreement can be reached if Russia isn't satisfied.

An even bigger divide concerns Assad himself, with Washington desperate to secure a guarantee that he
will eventually leave office in a transition, having abandoned Obama's previous demand that the Syrian
leader step down immediately. Russia has spent the past five years blocking any international strategy or
U.N. resolution that would show Assad the door.
IN18Dec15.doc

Matthew Rycroft, Britain's U.N. ambassador, said these issues and the mechanics of a cease-fire will all be
on the table Friday. A Security Council resolution on the Syrian peace process, he said, would be a "very
rare showing of unity" for world powers who've been bitterly divided even as death tolls have soared past
300,000 and migrant crises and violent attacks have engulfed Europe and beyond.

To this day, the U.S. and its European and Arab allies are supporting anti-Assad rebels with training,
equipment and funds. Russia is providing not only diplomatic and financial cover to Syria's government,
but targeting Assad's moderate opponents in airstrikes, according to Western governments. Meanwhile,
Iranian soldiers and proxy Hezbollah forces are dying on the battlefield alongside Assad's troops.

Nevertheless, top diplomats such as Secretary of State John Kerry have found cause for optimism in
declarations that all are now interested in securing a broad peace that would allow the world to concentrate
on defeating Islamic State extremists. The group has exploited the war's chaos to seize large parts of Syria
and Iraq for its self-proclaimed caliphate.

The shared commitment against IS has governments believing they can sidestep their disagreements on
Assad and other matters to end the killing. For the U.S., that has meant increasingly vague statements on
when Assad might have to relinquish authority and even declaring the opposition's demand for his
immediate ouster long America's own stance a "non-starting position."

In many ways, the parameters of the international mediation were framed early on in Syria's war by
disagreements between Washington and Moscow. Russia prevailed in many of these disputes.

When diplomats gathered in Geneva in June 2012 to hash out a strategy, U.N. peace envoy Kofi Annan
wanted a transitional government that would exclude "those whose continued presence and participation
would undermine the credibility of the transition and jeopardize stability and reconciliation."

"That was code for excluding Assad," former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, who backed such
language, noted in her book "Hard Choices."

But the Russians balked, and also prevented the inclusion of any penalties for noncompliance.

As a compromise, Clinton said she herself put forward the idea of a new Syrian government comprised of
individuals chosen by "mutual consent," believing that an accord along such lines would leave "Assad and
his cronies ... stripped of their authority." The Russians took it as providing the Syrian leader a veto over
any proposal for a would-be replacement.

The plan never went anywhere. After Kerry replaced Clinton as secretary of state, the talk went from
"changing Assad's calculus" to something closer to Russia's position: an acknowledgement that he wouldn't
have to give up the presidency on "Day One" of a transition.

When direct talks between the Syrian parties finally occurred in 2014, they never even got to questions of
leadership. Yet as the world community now tries again, the so-called "Geneva communique" is still
accepted as the basis for diplomacy.

The U.S. has a lot riding on engineering a cease-fire and jump-starting Syria's transition.

Obama, who has ruled out any significant deployment of U.S. ground forces, has failed to build an
American-trained, local fighting force or cajole Arab partners into sending their forces into Syria to defeat
the Islamic State group. While Kurdish Peshmerga and Arab militants have fought effectively, no one sees
their numbers or strength as sufficient to achieve the mission.
IN18Dec15.doc

The U.S. may have greater luck if peace between Syria's government and mainstream rebel groups holds.
American officials hope each would then cooperate and turn their guns on IS, with regional powers such as
Saudi Arabia filling the remaining needs for a ground force.

It's unclear if everyone would be on board, or if Russia would view such developments in its interests.

MoD says the Su-24 black box was damaged

http://www.themoscowtimes.com/news/article/black-box-of-downed-su-24-damaged--
russian-defense-ministry/553201.html

The black box from the Russian Su-24 fighter-bomber downed by Turkey has been damaged, said Nikolai
Primak, head of the Defense Ministry incident investigation group, at a briefing where the box was opened,
the Interfax news agency reported Friday.

We can see that on the upper plate, three of the eight microchips have clearly been damaged. That tells us,
as one can see, that the flight information in them is missing, Primak said.

Ministry officials explained the damages by saying that the black box was stored in the jet's rear part, where
the Turkish rocket hit, the RIA Novosti news agency reported.

All memory blocks from the black box will be sent to the laboratory for fluoroscopy studies to check if they
have been damaged too, the agency said.

Experts from China and India were present when the box was opened. Ministry official Sergey Dronov told
Interfax that experts from 14 countries had been invited, but most of them refused to participate.

Experts from China, United States and Britain will observe the black box data decryption process, Dronov
said, RIA Novosti reported.

The final results of the decryption are scheduled to be published on Dec. 21, Defense Ministry officials said
at the briefing.

In late November, a Russian Su-24 military plane was downed by an air-to-air missile from a Turkish F-16
interceptor near the Turkish-Syrian border. While the plane's two pilots ejected, one was reportedly killed
by local rebels during his descent. The other pilot was rescued by Russian and Syrian military.

More from Peskov on Chayka (Spinning the FBK story; Navalniy on what he would
do if he were Putin)

http://grani.ru/Politics/Russia/President/m.247021.html
IN18Dec15.doc

This is Peskov from a Rossiya-24 TV interview prior to Putins press conference (See
yesterdays notes)There was nothing new in the Anti-Corruption Foundation (FBK)
investigation, which was done on order. We saw similar charges in the summer, coming
from other people. Anyway, the claims were about Chaykas grown sons, not about the
Prosecutor General and his grown sons are of no interest to us. There are other, more
important problems to deal withthe economy, social problems, foreign policy. The real
agenda is quite different Meanwhile, a Kremlin source is saying vlast has developed a
strategy for dealing with the Chayka affair: for the near term, Chayka is immune. There
will be a minimal official reaction to the scandal and no inquiry into the charges made in
the FBK film. The story will have no impact on whether Chayka gets reappointed as
Prosecutor General (Comment: His term is up next June). Officially, the FBK
investigation will be cast as an order by the West. The campaign against FBK founder
Navalniy will be intensified.

Navalniy ponders the scandal and the Kremlins likely response (as outlined above):
https://navalny.com/p/4619/ And the likelihood that it is him and his family who will be
targetedChayka will remain in his post because it was Navalniy who attacked himin
the case of the stupid, thieving Yakunin, it took two years before he was dismissed
after Navalniy exposed his corruption. Navalniy says that if he were in Putins place, he
would call in the head of the FSB and hand him over a dossier on Chayka, then instruct
the FSB to conduct a hunt for traitors within the Prosecutors office. The FSB would
orchestrate a series of media leaks on the investigation. The Chaykas and their cronies
would be arrested, the presidents VTsIOM poll ratings would soar, newspapers would
write about Navalniy using the FSB for leaksKeeping Chayka as Prosecutor General
means taking responsibility for the protection of the Tsapkov criminal gang. Every
deputy and senator should demand a parliamentary investigation. And anyone not on
board with that will be faced by candidates in the 2016 Duma elections backed by the
anti-corruption foundation spreading the fact that they gave immunity to the protectors of
the Tsapkov gang

Latynina on why Chayka said Browder was behind the FBK investigation

http://www.novayagazeta.ru/columns/71189.html

Its because a US federal prosecutor has brought suit against a Russian businessman,
Denis Katsyv, in a New York court. Katsyvs accounts and real estate holdings in the US
have been frozenhis name is on the Magnitskiy list of Russians, officials and others,
Magnitisky claimed were making off with state funds under the guise of tax rebates.
Magnitskiy, of course, was charged with that crime himself and died in a Russian jail.
Katsyv has been connected to a number of key figures in the Magnitskiy affair, including
Dmitriy Klyuyev and former head of Russian Tax Inspectorate 28, Olga Stepanova
(Comment: From what I gather, Katsyev was laundering the funds siphoned off by
the group involved in the tax rebate scam, shifting the money to overseas accounts
and buying assets). But it appears that Chaykas office will argue that it was Browder
and his groupwhich included Magnitskiywho made off with state funds, then
accused Russian officials of that.
IN18Dec15.doc

Comment: Heres some material from the 8 August 2011 notes that helps fill out the
pictureIve had to re-edit it to keep from going off on the various related threads
of the story, but I think it will be helpful to those not familiar with the Magnitskiy
affair. I used different fonts then and the style was a bit different, but I think it
holds up:

[WP on Magnitskiy
http://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/how-us-sanctions-can-promote-human-rights-in-
russia/2011/08/04/gIQAunDC1I_story.html

LAST MONTH the Obama administration disclosed it had taken a significant step toward balancing its
policy toward Russia, which has focused heavily on striking deals with the authoritarian regime of Vladi-
mir Putin and Dmitry Medvedev while mostly ignoring issues of corruption and human rights. In a letter to
Congress, the State Department disclosed that several dozen Russian officials implicated in a notorious
corruption case that led to the persecution and death of a Russian lawyer had been banned from traveling to
the United States.

That the administration was right to act and that measures such as visa bans matter to foreign elites
has been seen in Russias reaction. At first, Russian spokesmen issued vague, empty threats of retaliation.
Then authorities announced that two prison doctors implicated in the death of the lawyer, Sergei
Magnitsky, would be prosecuted. Finally, government prosecutors said last week that they had reopened the
case brought against Mr. Magnitsky that led to his imprisonment, mistreatment and death in 2009.*

Most likely, the new investigation represents another cynical maneuver by the Russian Interior Ministry,
which has managed to protect the police officials responsible for Mr. Magnitskys death for two years
despite public promises of justice by Mr. Medvedev. The scale of the crimes and the blatancy of the
coverup are deeply revealing of the nature of the Russian regime. Mr. Magnitsky was targeted after he
disclosed that a group of tax and police officials had embezzled $230 million in government funds. The
same officials who stole the money charged him with the embezzlement, imprisoned him in increasingly
harsh conditions and denied him medical treatment.

As it happens, Mr. Magnitskys employers were an American law firm and a London-based investor; they
have since posted voluminous evidence on the Internet showing how police and tax officials channeled tens
of millions of dollars into foreign real estate and bank accounts following the embezzlement. A special
human rights council reported to Mr. Medvedev last month that the case had been mishandled and singled
out a senior police official it said was responsible. Yet the Interior Ministry continues to maintain that there
was no wrongdoing and Mr. Medvedev appears powerless to act against the corrupt cabal.

Pressure from the United States and the European Union which is also considering sanctions in the
Magnitsky case could help those in Russia who want to combat the culture of criminality that has spread
throughout government in the Putin era. But the Obama administrations action was reluctant; it moved
under pressure from Congress, where pending legislation would require a freeze on assets as well as a ban
on visas for officials involved in the Magnitsky case and other major human rights cases. The State
Departments letter disclosing the travel ban urged Congress to drop the bill, arguing it could cause
Moscow to cease cooperating on sanctions against Iran or in transporting materiel to Afghanistan.

Accepting that argument would mean agreeing with the proposition that the reset of relations with
Russia means that officials guilty of crimes such as theft, torture and murder must be allowed to
travel to the United States and deposit stolen funds here. In fact, the Kremlin will act according to its
IN18Dec15.doc

perceived interests in Iran and Afghanistan, regardless of such decisions. Russia will never be a reliable
U.S. partner until cases such as that of Sergei Magnitsky are subject to the rule of law.

*Reaction from Magnitskiys mother, Browder to the re-opening of the case

Press Release
For Immediate Distribution

Sergei Magnitskys Mother Reacts to the Russian Interior Ministrys Plan to Prosecute Her Dead
Son

5 August 2011 Yesterday, the Russian Interior Ministry announced that they plan to prosecute Sergei
Magnitsky for alleged tax evasion. Sergei Magnitsky has been dead since November 16, 2009. He had been
arrested and tortured to death in police custody after he had accused a number of Interior Ministry officers
of perpetrating the largest tax fraud in the Russian history. He repeatedly stated from custody that the case
against him was fabricated by the officers he had testified against. No one has been prosecuted for his
torture and death in the 20 months since his death.

"To put a man on trial after he was killed, when he can no longer defend himself, is an evil and base act. It
goes against all human morals, and laws," said Sergeis mother, Natalia Magnitskaya.

"I demand justice for my son and that everyone who is responsible for his death are named and
prosecuted," added Mrs. Magnitskaya.

Never in modern history has a government been so desperate to cover their tracks that after they torture
and kill a man, they prosecute his corpse two years later. This goes to show what absolute impunity allows
corrupt governments to do. There is a special place in hell for these type of people, said William Browder,
CEO of Hermitage Capital.

Last month, following an independent investigation, the Russian Presidents Human Rights Council
concluded that 1) the arrest of Sergei Magnitsky was carried out illegally in contravention of the European
Human Rights Convention, 2) the case against him was fabricated and pursued by the same Interior
Ministry officials he had named in his testimonies for the $230 million theft from the Russian Treasury,
and 3) he was beaten immediately before his death in custody.

Shortly after the Human Rights Councils findings were released, on 14 July 2011, the Russian Interior
Ministry rejected the Councils conclusions stating that no wrongdoing was found in the actions of
the Interior Ministry officials in the Magnitsky case.

For additional information please contact:

Hermitage Capital
+ 44 207 440 1777
info@lawandorderinrussia.org
http://lawandorderinrussia.org

Latynina comments on the Magnitskiy scandal (Latynina points to Serdyukov in the Magnitskiy affair)

http://www.echo.msk.ru/programs/code/799758-echo/

As Latynina relates the Magnitskiy case, Hermitage Capitals Browder, a green mailer, naturally attracted
the attention of law enforcement when he pressured state companies, blackmailing the state (Though the
blackmail did improve accounting is state companies in some instances). His offices were raided and the
documentation needed to trade the shares of three firms associated with Browders company was taken.
IN18Dec15.doc

(The three companiesParfenen, Makhaon, and Riland themselves were shells used strictly for trading
Russian shares) These documents wound up in the hands of a criminal named Markelov, who figured in
one of the cases (kidnapping/murder) of an investigator whose name would come up in the Magnitskiy
affair, Kuznetsov. Markelov arranged for a court to declare that these firms were suffering operational
losses. These firms then approached Tax Inspectorate #28, headed by Olga Stepanova, whose husband
owned property in Dubai, among other thingsSo Stepanova signed the documents authorizing a tax
rebate to these companies of $5.4 billion. The money was placed in certain banks, the main one being the
Universal Savings Bank that belongs to a certain Klyuyev, who had figured in a case involving the theft of
company shares in a deal with Metallinvest. Latynina believes that Klyuyev was the main organizer of the
affair. But she also thinks that all of the figures she named were connected in some way with Renessans
Kapital. Klyuyev used to work there[Comment: What Latynina seems to be saying is that the swindlers
used connections in Renessans Kapital to pull off their operation and that the RK management was
simply indifferent to the affair since it was not their money that was being stolen. That does not seem
credible to meif it was involved in something like this, Renessans would want a kickback]Heritage
knew what was up and had already lodged a complaint in October 07. [Comment: What Ive never quite
understood was what was going on with the three companiesaccording to Latyninas version of the
story, the law enforcement people who eventually prosecuted Magnitskiy raided Browders office,
obtained documents that effectively gave them control of those companies, I think, and then they used
those companies as Latynina described above. Didnt Heritage know that the documentswhatever
they were, exactlywere gone and that they could be used in such a way? Is that how they caught on to
the tax scheme?...] The transactions and actual theft did not take place until Decemberand the thieves
knew that Heritage had lodged a complaint. But they could call on gigantic administrative resources and
were very confident.

Meanwhile, the three companies used for the theft transactions were re-sold to a certain Rimma Starova,
born in Chita in 1938. [Comment: OK, so shes a front, a cover] Why? Because Browder had already
said he was robbed, that $250 million had been stolen from the budget. Starova then says he had bought
the companies and that she found out that they had been used to steal, not $250 million, but $5.4 billion
and that she wanted an investigation. And the investigation determined that Browder had stolen the
money. The investigation covered for Tax Inspector Stepanova and charged Browder and Magnitskiy. In
August of 08, two men went a to a DHL office in London and sent off a package (to a lawyer named
Khayretdinov) containing all the original documentation on the companies used in the tax fraud scam, and
when it got to Russia, there was a raid on the lawyers office and the documents were confiscated.
[Comment: I dont quite understand the lawyers role, but this was evidently a set up by the crooked law
enforcement officers to claim they had evidence of Browder/Magnitskiy scamming the tax refunds] So
the assets being put to use in this operation include, if not foreign intelligence itself, at least some of its
resources. All of this took place before the arrest of Magnitskiy.

It was obvious that the investigators and Stepanova were being protected by someone. Who? Browder has
said that ministers are behind this. We know that Stepanova worked in the tax service when the head of
that was the current Defense Minister, Serdyukov. And she went to work at Rosoboronpostavka when
Serdyukov went over the defense ministry. Vlast is out to protect these peopleSurkov got in on the act
when he threatened an end to reset if the Magnitskiy list was adopted. ]

Khodorkovskiy on a new constitution and regime change

http://www.themoscowtimes.com/article/khodorkovsky-calls-for-regime-change-new-
constitution/553048.html

Mikhail Khodorkovsky, the former Yukos CEO and Vladimir Putin's bete noire, who now leads the pro-
democracy Open Russia initiative, has published an article on the organization's official website in which
IN18Dec15.doc

he calls for a redrafting of the Russian constitution - arguing that the authorities' disregard for its provisions
has plunged the country into a constitutional crisis.

Today, the constitution is just a piece of paper a supposed symbol of federal values, freedom and
democracy. In practice, Vladimir Putin and his circle use and abuse it as they see fit, he wrote, quoting as
examples the extension of the presidential term from four to six years in 2008 and the abolition of direct
gubernatorial elections in 2004.

He went on to argue that the constitution needed to be amended immediately to explicitly mention the
Russian people's right to rebel against usurpers.

It should then be replaced with a completely new draft once Russia has seen the introduction of
parliamentary democracy, with the cabinet chosen by lawmakers, and decentralization (with regional
authorities managing their own budgets), the article said.

The Open Russia initiative was working on both amendment proposals and a draft of a new constitution,
the Meduza.io news site reported Wednesday.

A naval blockade of Crimea? (Battle over Crimea assets)

http://www.themoscowtimes.com/news/article/naval-blockade-of-crimea-to-start-shortly--crimean-tatar-
leaders/553046.html

A naval blockade of the Kerch Strait, separating Russia-annexed Crimea from the Krasnodar region in the
Russian mainland, could begin at the end of 2015 or the beginning of 2016, according to Lenur Islyamov,
one of the leaders of the Mejlis, the Crimean Tatar representative body, the Lenta.ru website wrote
Wednesday quoting an interview given by Islyamov to the 112 Ukraine TV channel.

I can't give any details, but I would like to say that we have been preparing for [launching the blockade]
using all the strength and resources we have. The soonest possible date is the end of 2015, or early 2016,
he was quoted as saying.

According to Lenta.ru, Islyamov had mentioned the possibility of launching a naval blockade repeatedly
since the start of December.

Ukraine's Foreign Ministry published on Wednesday a statement accusing Russia of large-scale

appropriation of property and natural resources in the Black Sea region, referring to two oil rigs worth
$353.7 million stationed off the Ukrainian coast near Odessa being towed into Russian territorial waters.

The accusations came amid uncertainty over the fate of the Chernomorneftegaz oil and gas drilling
company, an affiliate of Ukraine's oil giant Naftogaz seized by the Crimean regional parliament following
the peninsula's annexation by Russia in March 2014.

Ukraine declared that it would call on international courts to order the seizure of Chernomorneftegaz assets,
to which Russia allegedly responded by dispatching its navy to help tow away the platforms, the Meduza.io
news site reported Wednesday.

More on Potapenko and angry businessmen turning on the Kremlin

See the notes from 14 December.

http://www.themoscowtimes.com/business/article/angry-russian-businessmen-turn-on-kremlin/553051.html
IN18Dec15.doc

When Russian entrepreneur Dmitry Potapenko exploded in rage at the Moscow Economic Forum he could
not have known he would become an Internet sensation.

And yet he is not surprised.

"I did what everyone dreams of doing themselves," he said.

Three businessmen Potapenko, his neighbor at the forum roundtable, farm boss Pavel Grudinin,
and Crimean zoo director Oleg Zubkov together gathered more than 2 million hits on YouTube with
videos of speeches lambasting the authorities. The three work in different branches of business, but are
united in their complaints of red tape, corruption and the deaf ear of the political elite to demands
for reform.

They also say they are at the end of their tethers.

"Some take up a gun to shoot officials, as happened recently in Krasnogorsk; some grab a bottle of vodka
and go drink; some pack their suitcases and leave; some sit quietly in prison; and some come out and loudly
and say 'What's going on here? We're fed up!'" Grudinin, head of the Lenin State Farm, told
The Moscow Times.

In his speech, Potapenko, the owner of a carpet factory and several supermarkets in Russia and Europe,
slammed the abundance of levies and taxes and "criminal" import bans on Western produce, introduced
in retaliation of sanctions over Russia's role in the Ukraine crisis.

Officials and media have often blamed Russia's recession on external factors and anti-Russian policies
by the West. But, "It's not [U.S. President] Barack Obama who is responsible for our prohibitively high
interest rates," Potapenko said at the forum.

The outburst was a rare instance of public rebellion from an unexpected source that exposed the cracks
in Russian society behind the sky-high ratings of President Vladimir Putin and patriotic fervor stirred up
by Russian military actions in Ukraine and Syria.

Antagonism between authorities and the business sector is not new, but media headlines have mostly
focused on statements from exiled tycoons and heads of major companies.

Potapenko, Grudinin and Zubkov are no bigwigs. They represent the average entrepreneur squeezed
by bureaucracy a cause that ordinary Russians can relate to.

With the economy hit by low oil prices and sanctions, Russians' real incomes have fallen sharply over
the past year.

At the forum, Potapenko also referred to Platon a new tax collection system for truckers that has led
to the most visible anti-government protest in years. The company collecting the tax is owned by the son
of Arkady Rotenberg, a billionaire and Putin's former judo sparring partner.

For Potapenko, it represents the state's willingness to dig into entrepreneurs pockets even as they struggle
to survive an economic slump.

Potapenko has made similar public statements before, and Grudinin told The Moscow Times he had openly
complained of bureaucracy and red tape "for years."
IN18Dec15.doc

But the overwhelming popularity of the videos of their speeches is unprecedented proof that their words
have found new resonance in society, Grudinin said.

"Suddenly it's become top news, but earlier no one was talking about it," he said.

"There is a lot of negative energy building up among Russian businessmen," Grudinin, who is also deputy
chairman of the Agriculture Development Committee at the Chamber of Commerce and Industry, told
The Moscow Times. "I'm trying to prevent a revolt."

Though frustrated by red tape, much of the businessmen's true anger is targeted at the continued practice
among Russian officials of bending the rules to their own advantage.

At the forum, Potanpenko said that the officials conducting checks on business were now "significantly
worse" than the "exceptional bastards" of the chaotic 1990s.

Oleg Zubkov, the founder and director of the Skazka and Taigan zoos in Crimea the Black Sea
peninsula annexed by Russia from Ukraine last year is facing a three-year jail term for the deaths
of three rare Bengal tiger cubs at his zoo after the peninsula suffered a blackout.

Local prosecutors accuse him of neglecting the cubs and say before the trial has begun that he'll go
to jail. Zubkov denies the accusations and says it is part of a slander campaign against him to take away his
business.

Zubkov told The Moscow Times his troubles began when "unprepared" people were given positions
of power in the chaos that ensued following the annexation of Crimea into Russia. Running a business
became a matter of "whether they like you or not," he said.

"[They] aren't thinking about Crimea, about the [business] climate, whatever losses they are causing
investors, but only their personal ambitions," he said.

Zubkov said his business, one of the first private zoos to be set up following the fall of the Soviet Union,
had contributed millions of rubles in tax money but had been plagued by checks and fabricated accusations.

He is now using his blog, YouTube and social media to draw attention to what he considers is a state
of lawlessness on the peninsula since the annexation an event that is a source of national pride
to Russians.

"Today something absolutely incredible is going on," he said. "They want to put me in prison, take away
the parks, I don't even see any prospects of how to get out of this situation," he said.

"Why would you want to destroy a person who is paying taxes?" Zubkov asked.

The accusations of corruption and pocket lining come in the direct aftermath of a report by opposition
leader Alexei Navalny's Anti-Corruption Fund that incriminated colleagues of Russia's General Prosecutor
Yury Chaika in dirty business dealings with notorious gangsters.

When Grudinin at the Moscow Economic Forum said that many of the top state officials sitting in the
audience during a recent speech by Putin, "should definitely be serving time, as we all know," many
thought he was referring to the Chaika case.

Grudinin said he did not know about Chaika specifically, but was sure about the dirty consciences of many
other high-ranking officials sitting in the audience.
IN18Dec15.doc

"There are people whom I know personally, and have known for many years and used to call me their
friend. And I know they take huge bribes. They are now members of different federal agencies. I know how
much they've stolen," he said.

Exasperation with rampant corruption was a major contributing factor in a wave of anti-Kremlin protests
that followed supposed rigging of parliamentary elections in late 2011.

The popularity of Potapenko and Grudinin's protests, right after Navalny's allegations, suggest that
sentiments are again running high.

But Grudinin denied they were looking to trigger a mass protest.

"We aren't office plankton that go to Bolotnaya Square and stand there waving white ribbons," Grudinin
said, referring to the most famous venue and symbol of the protest movement.

Official reactions to Potapenko's speech have been mixed.

"Potapenko hit the nail on the head," Sergei Firsikov, a local Duma deputy from the ruling United Russia
party in the Kaliningrad region, said at a forum, the Novy Kaliningrad news website reported.

Alexander Brechalov, a vice-president of the Opora Rossii business association, described Potapenko's
speech as "outrageous" and said Potapenko was an attention seeker with "very little understanding
of economics."

During his speech, Potapenko clashed with Vladimir Gutyonov, another Duma deputy from United Russia
and deputy chairman of the Duma's Committee on Industry, who was sat at the forum's roundtable.
Mirroring an atmosphere in which criticizing the Kremlin is increasingly perceived as treason, Gutyonov
told The Moscow Times that Potapenko was abusing economic arguments to serve unspecified political
aims.

At the forum, Potapenko used a metaphor comparing the relationship between business and authorities
to that of a cow and a butcher, who, "holding a knife at its throat, asks: 'What do we have today, beef or
milk?'"

Speaking to the Moscow Times, Gutyonov retaliated and said: "If the cow is not able to distinguish
the butcher from the farmer that is a sign of mental disease."

"The farmer feeds the cow, but if he sees too little milk he is bound to ask the question: Are you going
to start producing some milk or are you just going to shit all over the place?"

Ukraine says it will not repay debt to Russia due this weekend
http://www.businessinsider.com/ap-ukraine-says-it-wont-repay-russian-debt-due-by-weekend-2015-12

Ukraine won't make a $3 billion debt repayment due to Russia this weekend because of Moscow's refusal
to accept terms already offered to other international creditors, its prime minister said Friday.

The "moratorium" on outstanding debt repayments to Russia announced by Ukrainian Prime Minister
Arseniy Yatsenyuk effectively means that Ukraine is defaulting on the debt due Sunday.
IN18Dec15.doc

It could also jeopardize crucial loans that Ukraine has been receiving from a $17.5 billion bailout deal with
the International Monetary Fund.

It's the latest spat between the two neighbors following a run of gas supply disputes, Russia's annexation of
the Crimean peninsula and support for separatists in eastern Ukraine.

"After Russia refused to accept our offer despite our attempts to reach a restructuring deal, the government
is imposing a moratorium on the repayment of the $3 billion debt to Russia," Yatsenyuk said at a televised
government session. "We are ready for court proceedings with Russia."

He did not indicate when Ukraine would be ready to repay the debt. Moscow has previously said it will
take Ukraine to court if it fails to pay on time.

Alongside the sovereign debt, the government has decided to put on hold the repayment of a combined debt
of $507 million that two Ukrainian state-owned enterprises owe to Russian banks.

It is unclear at this point how Ukraine's imminent default will affect the four-year IMF bailout as the Fund
recently said it can continue to lend to countries behind with debt payments as long as the country is trying
"in good faith" to reach a deal.

Still, William Jackson, a senior emerging markets economist at London-based Capital Economists
consultancy, said Friday's announcement "does feed into broader concerns that the country's IMF program
is now at risk."

He said the IMF's recent concerns about the Ukrainian parliament's decision to reject a proposed budget for
the next year and a new tax code could indicate a "growing risk that the country's bailout could be put on
hold."

Ukraine's economy has struggled over the past few years and the country has negotiated repayment terms
with creditors, but not with Russia.

In November, Russian President Vladimir Putin proposed a debt restructuring, saying Moscow would be
willing to agree to payments of $1 billion a year between 2016 and 2018.

Ukraine turned down the offer, saying it cannot legally offer Russia a better deal than the one it has
negotiated with other debt holders.

That deal has seen countries accept a 20 percent write-down of their Ukrainian bond holdings, a move
which has cut Ukraine's sovereign debt from $19 billion to $15.5 billion.

Relations between the two neighbors soured after Russia annexed the Crimean peninsula in March 2014
and threw its backing behind separatist rebels in eastern Ukraine. Ukrainian leaders have accused Moscow
of sending troops and weapons to the east, a claim the Kremlin has vehemently denied.

Kiev has sought to give a political dimension to the debt, hinting that Russia bought Ukrainian bonds in
December 2013 in an act of clandestine bribery of then President Viktor Yanukovych who was facing
massive anti-government protests at the time.

Kiev-based analyst Vadim Karasyov is confident that the default on the Ukrainian bonds will not mean a
certain ruin for Ukraine.

"Yatsenyuk has clearly run the idea of the moratorium by the main creditors and received their guarantees,"
Karasyov told The Associated Press.
IN18Dec15.doc

Foreign investors in Ukraine are not likely to be affected, according to Karasyov, "because you can count
them on one hand as it is."
IN18Dec15_0001.doc

Internet Notes 18 December 2015

Levada polls on the economy ........................................................................................... 2

Russia will not object to Assads ouster after the peace process begins .................. 2
MoD says the Su-24 black box was damaged ............................................................ 5
More from Peskov on Chayka (Spinning the FBK story; Navalniy on what he would
do if he were Putin) ....................................................................................................... 5
http://grani.ru/Politics/Russia/President/m.247021.html .................................................... 5
Latynina on why Chayka said Browder was behind the FBK investigation ................... 6
WP on Magnitskiy ............................................................................................................... 7
*Reaction from Magnitskiys mother, Browder to the re-opening of the case ............... 8
Latynina comments on the Magnitskiy scandal (Latynina points to Serdyukov in the
Magnitskiy affair)............................................................................................................ 8
Khodorkovskiy on a new constitution and regime change ........................................... 9
A naval blockade of Crimea? (Battle over Crimea assets) .......................................... 10
More on Potapenko and angry businessmen turning on the Kremlin ................... 10
Ukraine says it will not repay debt to Russia due this weekend ................................. 13
IN18Dec15_0001.doc

Levada polls on the economy

The polls were conducted in October and November

http://www.levada.ru/2015/12/17/ekonomicheskij-krizis-i-potreblenie/
57% say they are buying cheaper versions of bigger ticket items (38% in December
2014; 63% in September 2010)58% say they are economizing on everyday food items
(37%; 70%)36% say they are spending less on entertainment and vacations or simply
not taking them (22%; 34%)18% say they have decided not to buy a car, or housing, or
land plots (11%; 12%)9% are spending savings (7%; 12%)13% are cutting spending
on education or medical treatment (4%; 19%)6% arent doing any of these things
(17%; 1%)

Is there an economic crisis underway or not? Definitely yes36% (38% in September;

28% in March; 38% in December 2014)Probably44% (39%; 46%;
41%)Definitely not13% (14%; 15%; 10%)Probably not2% (3%; 3%;
2%)Hard to answer6% (7%; 7%; 9%)

How long do you think the crisis will last? (From among those who said there was a
crisis underway) 2-3 months--<1% in October (1% in September; 3% in March; 4% in
December 2014)6 months5% (4%; 5%; 8%)A year or a year and a half19%
(23%; 19%; 19%)Not less than two years22% (24%; 22%; 21%)The crisis will be
a long one and the consequences will last for years21% (23%; 17%; 16%)Right
now, its hard to say how long it will last or how deep the crisis will be23% (16%;
24%; 21%)

What portion of household income does your family spend on food? Less than half
23% in November (28% in October; 28% in June)About half40% (39%;
37%)Two thirds21% (19%; 21%)Almost all of it9% (7%; 7%)

How would you evaluate the situation regarding payment of pensions, salaries, stipends,
and benefits in your city/town/rayonbetter, worse, or no change? Better7% in
November (9% in October)Worse38% (32%)No change49% (51%)Hard to
answer5% (8%)

Russia will not object to Assads ouster after the peace process begins

http://www.themoscowtimes.com/news/article/russia-will-not-object-assad-ouster-after-
syrian-war-ends/553211.html

Russia has no objections to Syrian President Bashar Assad's ouster after the peace process starts in the
country, Western diplomats say, the Reuters news agency reported Friday.
IN18Dec15_0001.doc

Russia had been repeatedly voicing its support to the Syrian president, but since Western powers, Saudi
Arabia and Turkey have agreed that Assad can stay in power during the transition period, Kremlin has
changed its mind, a western diplomat told Reuters on condition of anonymity.

"And the Russians have got to the point privately where they accept that Assad will have gone by the end
of this transition, they're just not prepared to say that publicly," diplomat said.

Russia has changed its position on the eve of the third round of ministerial talks on the Syrian crisis. The
meeting will take place in New York on Friday. U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry and Russian Foreign
Minister Sergei Lavrov, along with the ministers from 16 other countries will participate.

Heres more: http://www.militarytimes.com/story/military/2015/12/18/russia-calling-shots-nations-lock-

down-syria-plan/77548834/

WASHINGTON As the U.S. and world powers gather again in an attempt to end Syria's civil war,
Russia appears to be calling the shots.

Nations meeting Friday in New York and the U.N. will essentially be negotiating a Russian plan for a
"political transition," based on the Syrian government's consent and with no clear reference to President
Bashar Assad's departure.

And as they look for a way to secure and enforce a peace that has proved all too elusive since 2011,
Russia's recent military intervention appears to be providing the key leverage. As President Obama said
earlier this month, rebels who join the process could enjoy "pockets of cease-fire" where they no longer
face Syrian or Russian bombs. The implication was that those who refuse could still be targeted.

In any event, diplomats from East and West say the chances of ending the conflict between Assad's military
and moderate rebel forces are better now than they've been for a long while. All speak of seizing the
momentum of several groundbreaking meetings in recent months.

For the first time, the rise of the Islamic State group has the U.S., Russia and even sworn enemies such as
Saudi Arabia and Iran committed to a blueprint for peace negotiations and a set of principles for Syria's
future. These are expected to be endorsed by the U.N. Security Council on Friday, following meetings
among foreign ministers in New York. The body has passed no such resolution previously.

There are other signs of progress. The opposition is finalizing the makeup of its delegation for talks with
the government that are supposed to start next month. Jordan is close to completing a list of militant groups
that could join a unity government, and which, like the Islamic State group and al-Qaida, would be declared
terrorists and enemies of all.

Still, "very real" gaps remain, Samantha Power, the U.S. ambassador to the United Nations, told reporters
this week.

For one, the Russian division of "terrorist" vs. legitimate rebel forces differs significantly from that of U.S.
and Arab governments, diplomats say. And no agreement can be reached if Russia isn't satisfied.

An even bigger divide concerns Assad himself, with Washington desperate to secure a guarantee that he
will eventually leave office in a transition, having abandoned Obama's previous demand that the Syrian
leader step down immediately. Russia has spent the past five years blocking any international strategy or
U.N. resolution that would show Assad the door.
IN18Dec15_0001.doc

Matthew Rycroft, Britain's U.N. ambassador, said these issues and the mechanics of a cease-fire will all be
on the table Friday. A Security Council resolution on the Syrian peace process, he said, would be a "very
rare showing of unity" for world powers who've been bitterly divided even as death tolls have soared past
300,000 and migrant crises and violent attacks have engulfed Europe and beyond.

To this day, the U.S. and its European and Arab allies are supporting anti-Assad rebels with training,
equipment and funds. Russia is providing not only diplomatic and financial cover to Syria's government,
but targeting Assad's moderate opponents in airstrikes, according to Western governments. Meanwhile,
Iranian soldiers and proxy Hezbollah forces are dying on the battlefield alongside Assad's troops.

Nevertheless, top diplomats such as Secretary of State John Kerry have found cause for optimism in
declarations that all are now interested in securing a broad peace that would allow the world to concentrate
on defeating Islamic State extremists. The group has exploited the war's chaos to seize large parts of Syria
and Iraq for its self-proclaimed caliphate.

The shared commitment against IS has governments believing they can sidestep their disagreements on
Assad and other matters to end the killing. For the U.S., that has meant increasingly vague statements on
when Assad might have to relinquish authority and even declaring the opposition's demand for his
immediate ouster long America's own stance a "non-starting position."

In many ways, the parameters of the international mediation were framed early on in Syria's war by
disagreements between Washington and Moscow. Russia prevailed in many of these disputes.

When diplomats gathered in Geneva in June 2012 to hash out a strategy, U.N. peace envoy Kofi Annan
wanted a transitional government that would exclude "those whose continued presence and participation
would undermine the credibility of the transition and jeopardize stability and reconciliation."

"That was code for excluding Assad," former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, who backed such
language, noted in her book "Hard Choices."

But the Russians balked, and also prevented the inclusion of any penalties for noncompliance.

As a compromise, Clinton said she herself put forward the idea of a new Syrian government comprised of
individuals chosen by "mutual consent," believing that an accord along such lines would leave "Assad and
his cronies ... stripped of their authority." The Russians took it as providing the Syrian leader a veto over
any proposal for a would-be replacement.

The plan never went anywhere. After Kerry replaced Clinton as secretary of state, the talk went from
"changing Assad's calculus" to something closer to Russia's position: an acknowledgement that he wouldn't
have to give up the presidency on "Day One" of a transition.

When direct talks between the Syrian parties finally occurred in 2014, they never even got to questions of
leadership. Yet as the world community now tries again, the so-called "Geneva communique" is still
accepted as the basis for diplomacy.

The U.S. has a lot riding on engineering a cease-fire and jump-starting Syria's transition.

Obama, who has ruled out any significant deployment of U.S. ground forces, has failed to build an
American-trained, local fighting force or cajole Arab partners into sending their forces into Syria to defeat
the Islamic State group. While Kurdish Peshmerga and Arab militants have fought effectively, no one sees
their numbers or strength as sufficient to achieve the mission.
IN18Dec15_0001.doc

The U.S. may have greater luck if peace between Syria's government and mainstream rebel groups holds.
American officials hope each would then cooperate and turn their guns on IS, with regional powers such as
Saudi Arabia filling the remaining needs for a ground force.

It's unclear if everyone would be on board, or if Russia would view such developments in its interests.

MoD says the Su-24 black box was damaged

http://www.themoscowtimes.com/news/article/black-box-of-downed-su-24-damaged--
russian-defense-ministry/553201.html

The black box from the Russian Su-24 fighter-bomber downed by Turkey has been damaged, said Nikolai
Primak, head of the Defense Ministry incident investigation group, at a briefing where the box was opened,
the Interfax news agency reported Friday.

We can see that on the upper plate, three of the eight microchips have clearly been damaged. That tells us,
as one can see, that the flight information in them is missing, Primak said.

Ministry officials explained the damages by saying that the black box was stored in the jet's rear part, where
the Turkish rocket hit, the RIA Novosti news agency reported.

All memory blocks from the black box will be sent to the laboratory for fluoroscopy studies to check if they
have been damaged too, the agency said.

Experts from China and India were present when the box was opened. Ministry official Sergey Dronov told
Interfax that experts from 14 countries had been invited, but most of them refused to participate.

Experts from China, United States and Britain will observe the black box data decryption process, Dronov
said, RIA Novosti reported.

The final results of the decryption are scheduled to be published on Dec. 21, Defense Ministry officials said
at the briefing.

In late November, a Russian Su-24 military plane was downed by an air-to-air missile from a Turkish F-16
interceptor near the Turkish-Syrian border. While the plane's two pilots ejected, one was reportedly killed
by local rebels during his descent. The other pilot was rescued by Russian and Syrian military.

More from Peskov on Chayka (Spinning the FBK story; Navalniy on what he would
do if he were Putin)

http://grani.ru/Politics/Russia/President/m.247021.html
IN18Dec15_0001.doc

This is Peskov from a Rossiya-24 TV interview prior to Putins press conference (See
yesterdays notes)There was nothing new in the Anti-Corruption Foundation (FBK)
investigation, which was done on order. We saw similar charges in the summer, coming
from other people. Anyway, the claims were about Chaykas grown sons, not about the
Prosecutor General and his grown sons are of no interest to us. There are other, more
important problems to deal withthe economy, social problems, foreign policy. The real
agenda is quite different Meanwhile, a Kremlin source is saying vlast has developed a
strategy for dealing with the Chayka affair: for the near term, Chayka is immune. There
will be a minimal official reaction to the scandal and no inquiry into the charges made in
the FBK film. The story will have no impact on whether Chayka gets reappointed as
Prosecutor General (Comment: His term is up next June). Officially, the FBK
investigation will be cast as an order by the West. The campaign against FBK founder
Navalniy will be intensified.

Navalniy ponders the scandal and the Kremlins likely response (as outlined above):
https://navalny.com/p/4619/ And the likelihood that it is him and his family who will be
targetedChayka will remain in his post because it was Navalniy who attacked himin
the case of the stupid, thieving Yakunin, it took two years before he was dismissed
after Navalniy exposed his corruption. Navalniy says that if he were in Putins place, he
would call in the head of the FSB and hand him over a dossier on Chayka, then instruct
the FSB to conduct a hunt for traitors within the Prosecutors office. The FSB would
orchestrate a series of media leaks on the investigation. The Chaykas and their cronies
would be arrested, the presidents VTsIOM poll ratings would soar, newspapers would
write about Navalniy using the FSB for leaksKeeping Chayka as Prosecutor General
means taking responsibility for the protection of the Tsapkov criminal gang. Every
deputy and senator should demand a parliamentary investigation. And anyone not on
board with that will be faced by candidates in the 2016 Duma elections backed by the
anti-corruption foundation spreading the fact that they gave immunity to the protectors of
the Tsapkov gang

Latynina on why Chayka said Browder was behind the FBK investigation

http://www.novayagazeta.ru/columns/71189.html

Its because a US federal prosecutor has brought suit against a Russian businessman,
Denis Katsyv, in a New York court. Katsyvs accounts and real estate holdings in the US
have been frozenhis name is on the Magnitskiy list of Russians, officials and others,
Magnitisky claimed were making off with state funds under the guise of tax rebates.
Magnitskiy, of course, was charged with that crime himself and died in a Russian jail.
Katsyv has been connected to a number of key figures in the Magnitskiy affair, including
Dmitriy Klyuyev and former head of Russian Tax Inspectorate 28, Olga Stepanova
(Comment: From what I gather, Katsyev was laundering the funds siphoned off by
the group involved in the tax rebate scam, shifting the money to overseas accounts
and buying assets). But it appears that Chaykas office will argue that it was Browder
and his groupwhich included Magnitskiywho made off with state funds, then
accused Russian officials of that.
IN18Dec15_0001.doc

Comment: Heres some material from the 8 August 2011 notes that helps fill out the
pictureIve had to re-edit it to keep from going off on the various related threads
of the story, but I think it will be helpful to those not familiar with the Magnitskiy
affair. I used different fonts then and the style was a bit different, but I think it
holds up:

[WP on Magnitskiy
http://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/how-us-sanctions-can-promote-human-rights-in-
russia/2011/08/04/gIQAunDC1I_story.html

LAST MONTH the Obama administration disclosed it had taken a significant step toward balancing its
policy toward Russia, which has focused heavily on striking deals with the authoritarian regime of Vladi-
mir Putin and Dmitry Medvedev while mostly ignoring issues of corruption and human rights. In a letter to
Congress, the State Department disclosed that several dozen Russian officials implicated in a notorious
corruption case that led to the persecution and death of a Russian lawyer had been banned from traveling to
the United States.

That the administration was right to act and that measures such as visa bans matter to foreign elites
has been seen in Russias reaction. At first, Russian spokesmen issued vague, empty threats of retaliation.
Then authorities announced that two prison doctors implicated in the death of the lawyer, Sergei
Magnitsky, would be prosecuted. Finally, government prosecutors said last week that they had reopened the
case brought against Mr. Magnitsky that led to his imprisonment, mistreatment and death in 2009.*

Most likely, the new investigation represents another cynical maneuver by the Russian Interior Ministry,
which has managed to protect the police officials responsible for Mr. Magnitskys death for two years
despite public promises of justice by Mr. Medvedev. The scale of the crimes and the blatancy of the
coverup are deeply revealing of the nature of the Russian regime. Mr. Magnitsky was targeted after he
disclosed that a group of tax and police officials had embezzled $230 million in government funds. The
same officials who stole the money charged him with the embezzlement, imprisoned him in increasingly
harsh conditions and denied him medical treatment.

As it happens, Mr. Magnitskys employers were an American law firm and a London-based investor; they
have since posted voluminous evidence on the Internet showing how police and tax officials channeled tens
of millions of dollars into foreign real estate and bank accounts following the embezzlement. A special
human rights council reported to Mr. Medvedev last month that the case had been mishandled and singled
out a senior police official it said was responsible. Yet the Interior Ministry continues to maintain that there
was no wrongdoing and Mr. Medvedev appears powerless to act against the corrupt cabal.

Pressure from the United States and the European Union which is also considering sanctions in the
Magnitsky case could help those in Russia who want to combat the culture of criminality that has spread
throughout government in the Putin era. But the Obama administrations action was reluctant; it moved
under pressure from Congress, where pending legislation would require a freeze on assets as well as a ban
on visas for officials involved in the Magnitsky case and other major human rights cases. The State
Departments letter disclosing the travel ban urged Congress to drop the bill, arguing it could cause
Moscow to cease cooperating on sanctions against Iran or in transporting materiel to Afghanistan.

Accepting that argument would mean agreeing with the proposition that the reset of relations with
Russia means that officials guilty of crimes such as theft, torture and murder must be allowed to
travel to the United States and deposit stolen funds here. In fact, the Kremlin will act according to its
IN18Dec15_0001.doc

perceived interests in Iran and Afghanistan, regardless of such decisions. Russia will never be a reliable
U.S. partner until cases such as that of Sergei Magnitsky are subject to the rule of law.

*Reaction from Magnitskiys mother, Browder to the re-opening of the case

Press Release
For Immediate Distribution

Sergei Magnitskys Mother Reacts to the Russian Interior Ministrys Plan to Prosecute Her Dead
Son

5 August 2011 Yesterday, the Russian Interior Ministry announced that they plan to prosecute Sergei
Magnitsky for alleged tax evasion. Sergei Magnitsky has been dead since November 16, 2009. He had been
arrested and tortured to death in police custody after he had accused a number of Interior Ministry officers
of perpetrating the largest tax fraud in the Russian history. He repeatedly stated from custody that the case
against him was fabricated by the officers he had testified against. No one has been prosecuted for his
torture and death in the 20 months since his death.

"To put a man on trial after he was killed, when he can no longer defend himself, is an evil and base act. It
goes against all human morals, and laws," said Sergeis mother, Natalia Magnitskaya.

"I demand justice for my son and that everyone who is responsible for his death are named and
prosecuted," added Mrs. Magnitskaya.

Never in modern history has a government been so desperate to cover their tracks that after they torture
and kill a man, they prosecute his corpse two years later. This goes to show what absolute impunity allows
corrupt governments to do. There is a special place in hell for these type of people, said William Browder,
CEO of Hermitage Capital.

Last month, following an independent investigation, the Russian Presidents Human Rights Council
concluded that 1) the arrest of Sergei Magnitsky was carried out illegally in contravention of the European
Human Rights Convention, 2) the case against him was fabricated and pursued by the same Interior
Ministry officials he had named in his testimonies for the $230 million theft from the Russian Treasury,
and 3) he was beaten immediately before his death in custody.

Shortly after the Human Rights Councils findings were released, on 14 July 2011, the Russian Interior
Ministry rejected the Councils conclusions stating that no wrongdoing was found in the actions of
the Interior Ministry officials in the Magnitsky case.

For additional information please contact:

Hermitage Capital
+ 44 207 440 1777
info@lawandorderinrussia.org
http://lawandorderinrussia.org

Latynina comments on the Magnitskiy scandal (Latynina points to Serdyukov in the Magnitskiy affair)

http://www.echo.msk.ru/programs/code/799758-echo/

As Latynina relates the Magnitskiy case, Hermitage Capitals Browder, a green mailer, naturally attracted
the attention of law enforcement when he pressured state companies, blackmailing the state (Though the
blackmail did improve accounting is state companies in some instances). His offices were raided and the
documentation needed to trade the shares of three firms associated with Browders company was taken.
IN18Dec15_0001.doc

(The three companiesParfenen, Makhaon, and Riland themselves were shells used strictly for trading
Russian shares) These documents wound up in the hands of a criminal named Markelov, who figured in
one of the cases (kidnapping/murder) of an investigator whose name would come up in the Magnitskiy
affair, Kuznetsov. Markelov arranged for a court to declare that these firms were suffering operational
losses. These firms then approached Tax Inspectorate #28, headed by Olga Stepanova, whose husband
owned property in Dubai, among other thingsSo Stepanova signed the documents authorizing a tax
rebate to these companies of $5.4 billion. The money was placed in certain banks, the main one being the
Universal Savings Bank that belongs to a certain Klyuyev, who had figured in a case involving the theft of
company shares in a deal with Metallinvest. Latynina believes that Klyuyev was the main organizer of the
affair. But she also thinks that all of the figures she named were connected in some way with Renessans
Kapital. Klyuyev used to work there[Comment: What Latynina seems to be saying is that the swindlers
used connections in Renessans Kapital to pull off their operation and that the RK management was
simply indifferent to the affair since it was not their money that was being stolen. That does not seem
credible to meif it was involved in something like this, Renessans would want a kickback]Heritage
knew what was up and had already lodged a complaint in October 07. [Comment: What Ive never quite
understood was what was going on with the three companiesaccording to Latyninas version of the
story, the law enforcement people who eventually prosecuted Magnitskiy raided Browders office,
obtained documents that effectively gave them control of those companies, I think, and then they used
those companies as Latynina described above. Didnt Heritage know that the documentswhatever
they were, exactlywere gone and that they could be used in such a way? Is that how they caught on to
the tax scheme?...] The transactions and actual theft did not take place until Decemberand the thieves
knew that Heritage had lodged a complaint. But they could call on gigantic administrative resources and
were very confident.

Meanwhile, the three companies used for the theft transactions were re-sold to a certain Rimma Starova,
born in Chita in 1938. [Comment: OK, so shes a front, a cover] Why? Because Browder had already
said he was robbed, that $250 million had been stolen from the budget. Starova then says he had bought
the companies and that she found out that they had been used to steal, not $250 million, but $5.4 billion
and that she wanted an investigation. And the investigation determined that Browder had stolen the
money. The investigation covered for Tax Inspector Stepanova and charged Browder and Magnitskiy. In
August of 08, two men went a to a DHL office in London and sent off a package (to a lawyer named
Khayretdinov) containing all the original documentation on the companies used in the tax fraud scam, and
when it got to Russia, there was a raid on the lawyers office and the documents were confiscated.
[Comment: I dont quite understand the lawyers role, but this was evidently a set up by the crooked law
enforcement officers to claim they had evidence of Browder/Magnitskiy scamming the tax refunds] So
the assets being put to use in this operation include, if not foreign intelligence itself, at least some of its
resources. All of this took place before the arrest of Magnitskiy.

It was obvious that the investigators and Stepanova were being protected by someone. Who? Browder has
said that ministers are behind this. We know that Stepanova worked in the tax service when the head of
that was the current Defense Minister, Serdyukov. And she went to work at Rosoboronpostavka when
Serdyukov went over the defense ministry. Vlast is out to protect these peopleSurkov got in on the act
when he threatened an end to reset if the Magnitskiy list was adopted. ]

Khodorkovskiy on a new constitution and regime change

http://www.themoscowtimes.com/article/khodorkovsky-calls-for-regime-change-new-
constitution/553048.html

Mikhail Khodorkovsky, the former Yukos CEO and Vladimir Putin's bete noire, who now leads the pro-
democracy Open Russia initiative, has published an article on the organization's official website in which
IN18Dec15_0001.doc

he calls for a redrafting of the Russian constitution - arguing that the authorities' disregard for its provisions
has plunged the country into a constitutional crisis.

Today, the constitution is just a piece of paper a supposed symbol of federal values, freedom and
democracy. In practice, Vladimir Putin and his circle use and abuse it as they see fit, he wrote, quoting as
examples the extension of the presidential term from four to six years in 2008 and the abolition of direct
gubernatorial elections in 2004.

He went on to argue that the constitution needed to be amended immediately to explicitly mention the
Russian people's right to rebel against usurpers.

It should then be replaced with a completely new draft once Russia has seen the introduction of
parliamentary democracy, with the cabinet chosen by lawmakers, and decentralization (with regional
authorities managing their own budgets), the article said.

The Open Russia initiative was working on both amendment proposals and a draft of a new constitution,
the Meduza.io news site reported Wednesday.

A naval blockade of Crimea? (Battle over Crimea assets)

http://www.themoscowtimes.com/news/article/naval-blockade-of-crimea-to-start-shortly--crimean-tatar-
leaders/553046.html

A naval blockade of the Kerch Strait, separating Russia-annexed Crimea from the Krasnodar region in the
Russian mainland, could begin at the end of 2015 or the beginning of 2016, according to Lenur Islyamov,
one of the leaders of the Mejlis, the Crimean Tatar representative body, the Lenta.ru website wrote
Wednesday quoting an interview given by Islyamov to the 112 Ukraine TV channel.

I can't give any details, but I would like to say that we have been preparing for [launching the blockade]
using all the strength and resources we have. The soonest possible date is the end of 2015, or early 2016,
he was quoted as saying.

According to Lenta.ru, Islyamov had mentioned the possibility of launching a naval blockade repeatedly
since the start of December.

Ukraine's Foreign Ministry published on Wednesday a statement accusing Russia of large-scale

appropriation of property and natural resources in the Black Sea region, referring to two oil rigs worth
$353.7 million stationed off the Ukrainian coast near Odessa being towed into Russian territorial waters.

The accusations came amid uncertainty over the fate of the Chernomorneftegaz oil and gas drilling
company, an affiliate of Ukraine's oil giant Naftogaz seized by the Crimean regional parliament following
the peninsula's annexation by Russia in March 2014.

Ukraine declared that it would call on international courts to order the seizure of Chernomorneftegaz assets,
to which Russia allegedly responded by dispatching its navy to help tow away the platforms, the Meduza.io
news site reported Wednesday.

More on Potapenko and angry businessmen turning on the Kremlin

See the notes from 14 December.

http://www.themoscowtimes.com/business/article/angry-russian-businessmen-turn-on-kremlin/553051.html
IN18Dec15_0001.doc

When Russian entrepreneur Dmitry Potapenko exploded in rage at the Moscow Economic Forum he could
not have known he would become an Internet sensation.

And yet he is not surprised.

"I did what everyone dreams of doing themselves," he said.

Three businessmen Potapenko, his neighbor at the forum roundtable, farm boss Pavel Grudinin,
and Crimean zoo director Oleg Zubkov together gathered more than 2 million hits on YouTube with
videos of speeches lambasting the authorities. The three work in different branches of business, but are
united in their complaints of red tape, corruption and the deaf ear of the political elite to demands
for reform.

They also say they are at the end of their tethers.

"Some take up a gun to shoot officials, as happened recently in Krasnogorsk; some grab a bottle of vodka
and go drink; some pack their suitcases and leave; some sit quietly in prison; and some come out and loudly
and say 'What's going on here? We're fed up!'" Grudinin, head of the Lenin State Farm, told
The Moscow Times.

In his speech, Potapenko, the owner of a carpet factory and several supermarkets in Russia and Europe,
slammed the abundance of levies and taxes and "criminal" import bans on Western produce, introduced
in retaliation of sanctions over Russia's role in the Ukraine crisis.

Officials and media have often blamed Russia's recession on external factors and anti-Russian policies
by the West. But, "It's not [U.S. President] Barack Obama who is responsible for our prohibitively high
interest rates," Potapenko said at the forum.

The outburst was a rare instance of public rebellion from an unexpected source that exposed the cracks
in Russian society behind the sky-high ratings of President Vladimir Putin and patriotic fervor stirred up
by Russian military actions in Ukraine and Syria.

Antagonism between authorities and the business sector is not new, but media headlines have mostly
focused on statements from exiled tycoons and heads of major companies.

Potapenko, Grudinin and Zubkov are no bigwigs. They represent the average entrepreneur squeezed
by bureaucracy a cause that ordinary Russians can relate to.

With the economy hit by low oil prices and sanctions, Russians' real incomes have fallen sharply over
the past year.

At the forum, Potapenko also referred to Platon a new tax collection system for truckers that has led
to the most visible anti-government protest in years. The company collecting the tax is owned by the son
of Arkady Rotenberg, a billionaire and Putin's former judo sparring partner.

For Potapenko, it represents the state's willingness to dig into entrepreneurs pockets even as they struggle
to survive an economic slump.

Potapenko has made similar public statements before, and Grudinin told The Moscow Times he had openly
complained of bureaucracy and red tape "for years."
IN18Dec15_0001.doc

But the overwhelming popularity of the videos of their speeches is unprecedented proof that their words
have found new resonance in society, Grudinin said.

"Suddenly it's become top news, but earlier no one was talking about it," he said.

"There is a lot of negative energy building up among Russian businessmen," Grudinin, who is also deputy
chairman of the Agriculture Development Committee at the Chamber of Commerce and Industry, told
The Moscow Times. "I'm trying to prevent a revolt."

Though frustrated by red tape, much of the businessmen's true anger is targeted at the continued practice
among Russian officials of bending the rules to their own advantage.

At the forum, Potanpenko said that the officials conducting checks on business were now "significantly
worse" than the "exceptional bastards" of the chaotic 1990s.

Oleg Zubkov, the founder and director of the Skazka and Taigan zoos in Crimea the Black Sea
peninsula annexed by Russia from Ukraine last year is facing a three-year jail term for the deaths
of three rare Bengal tiger cubs at his zoo after the peninsula suffered a blackout.

Local prosecutors accuse him of neglecting the cubs and say before the trial has begun that he'll go
to jail. Zubkov denies the accusations and says it is part of a slander campaign against him to take away his
business.

Zubkov told The Moscow Times his troubles began when "unprepared" people were given positions
of power in the chaos that ensued following the annexation of Crimea into Russia. Running a business
became a matter of "whether they like you or not," he said.

"[They] aren't thinking about Crimea, about the [business] climate, whatever losses they are causing
investors, but only their personal ambitions," he said.

Zubkov said his business, one of the first private zoos to be set up following the fall of the Soviet Union,
had contributed millions of rubles in tax money but had been plagued by checks and fabricated accusations.

He is now using his blog, YouTube and social media to draw attention to what he considers is a state
of lawlessness on the peninsula since the annexation an event that is a source of national pride
to Russians.

"Today something absolutely incredible is going on," he said. "They want to put me in prison, take away
the parks, I don't even see any prospects of how to get out of this situation," he said.

"Why would you want to destroy a person who is paying taxes?" Zubkov asked.

The accusations of corruption and pocket lining come in the direct aftermath of a report by opposition
leader Alexei Navalny's Anti-Corruption Fund that incriminated colleagues of Russia's General Prosecutor
Yury Chaika in dirty business dealings with notorious gangsters.

When Grudinin at the Moscow Economic Forum said that many of the top state officials sitting in the
audience during a recent speech by Putin, "should definitely be serving time, as we all know," many
thought he was referring to the Chaika case.

Grudinin said he did not know about Chaika specifically, but was sure about the dirty consciences of many
other high-ranking officials sitting in the audience.
IN18Dec15_0001.doc

"There are people whom I know personally, and have known for many years and used to call me their
friend. And I know they take huge bribes. They are now members of different federal agencies. I know how
much they've stolen," he said.

Exasperation with rampant corruption was a major contributing factor in a wave of anti-Kremlin protests
that followed supposed rigging of parliamentary elections in late 2011.

The popularity of Potapenko and Grudinin's protests, right after Navalny's allegations, suggest that
sentiments are again running high.

But Grudinin denied they were looking to trigger a mass protest.

"We aren't office plankton that go to Bolotnaya Square and stand there waving white ribbons," Grudinin
said, referring to the most famous venue and symbol of the protest movement.

Official reactions to Potapenko's speech have been mixed.

"Potapenko hit the nail on the head," Sergei Firsikov, a local Duma deputy from the ruling United Russia
party in the Kaliningrad region, said at a forum, the Novy Kaliningrad news website reported.

Alexander Brechalov, a vice-president of the Opora Rossii business association, described Potapenko's
speech as "outrageous" and said Potapenko was an attention seeker with "very little understanding
of economics."

During his speech, Potapenko clashed with Vladimir Gutyonov, another Duma deputy from United Russia
and deputy chairman of the Duma's Committee on Industry, who was sat at the forum's roundtable.
Mirroring an atmosphere in which criticizing the Kremlin is increasingly perceived as treason, Gutyonov
told The Moscow Times that Potapenko was abusing economic arguments to serve unspecified political
aims.

At the forum, Potapenko used a metaphor comparing the relationship between business and authorities
to that of a cow and a butcher, who, "holding a knife at its throat, asks: 'What do we have today, beef or
milk?'"

Speaking to the Moscow Times, Gutyonov retaliated and said: "If the cow is not able to distinguish
the butcher from the farmer that is a sign of mental disease."

"The farmer feeds the cow, but if he sees too little milk he is bound to ask the question: Are you going
to start producing some milk or are you just going to shit all over the place?"

Ukraine says it will not repay debt to Russia due this weekend
http://www.businessinsider.com/ap-ukraine-says-it-wont-repay-russian-debt-due-by-weekend-2015-12

Ukraine won't make a $3 billion debt repayment due to Russia this weekend because of Moscow's refusal
to accept terms already offered to other international creditors, its prime minister said Friday.

The "moratorium" on outstanding debt repayments to Russia announced by Ukrainian Prime Minister
Arseniy Yatsenyuk effectively means that Ukraine is defaulting on the debt due Sunday.
IN18Dec15_0001.doc

It could also jeopardize crucial loans that Ukraine has been receiving from a $17.5 billion bailout deal with
the International Monetary Fund.

It's the latest spat between the two neighbors following a run of gas supply disputes, Russia's annexation of
the Crimean peninsula and support for separatists in eastern Ukraine.

"After Russia refused to accept our offer despite our attempts to reach a restructuring deal, the government
is imposing a moratorium on the repayment of the $3 billion debt to Russia," Yatsenyuk said at a televised
government session. "We are ready for court proceedings with Russia."

He did not indicate when Ukraine would be ready to repay the debt. Moscow has previously said it will
take Ukraine to court if it fails to pay on time.

Alongside the sovereign debt, the government has decided to put on hold the repayment of a combined debt
of $507 million that two Ukrainian state-owned enterprises owe to Russian banks.

It is unclear at this point how Ukraine's imminent default will affect the four-year IMF bailout as the Fund
recently said it can continue to lend to countries behind with debt payments as long as the country is trying
"in good faith" to reach a deal.

Still, William Jackson, a senior emerging markets economist at London-based Capital Economists
consultancy, said Friday's announcement "does feed into broader concerns that the country's IMF program
is now at risk."

He said the IMF's recent concerns about the Ukrainian parliament's decision to reject a proposed budget for
the next year and a new tax code could indicate a "growing risk that the country's bailout could be put on
hold."

Ukraine's economy has struggled over the past few years and the country has negotiated repayment terms
with creditors, but not with Russia.

In November, Russian President Vladimir Putin proposed a debt restructuring, saying Moscow would be
willing to agree to payments of $1 billion a year between 2016 and 2018.

Ukraine turned down the offer, saying it cannot legally offer Russia a better deal than the one it has
negotiated with other debt holders.

That deal has seen countries accept a 20 percent write-down of their Ukrainian bond holdings, a move
which has cut Ukraine's sovereign debt from $19 billion to $15.5 billion.

Relations between the two neighbors soured after Russia annexed the Crimean peninsula in March 2014
and threw its backing behind separatist rebels in eastern Ukraine. Ukrainian leaders have accused Moscow
of sending troops and weapons to the east, a claim the Kremlin has vehemently denied.

Kiev has sought to give a political dimension to the debt, hinting that Russia bought Ukrainian bonds in
December 2013 in an act of clandestine bribery of then President Viktor Yanukovych who was facing
massive anti-government protests at the time.

Kiev-based analyst Vadim Karasyov is confident that the default on the Ukrainian bonds will not mean a
certain ruin for Ukraine.

"Yatsenyuk has clearly run the idea of the moratorium by the main creditors and received their guarantees,"
Karasyov told The Associated Press.
IN18Dec15_0001.doc

Foreign investors in Ukraine are not likely to be affected, according to Karasyov, "because you can count
them on one hand as it is."
 From: RobertOtto<robertotto25@gmail.com>
Senttime: 12/17/201512:44:31AM
To: kramer<david.j.kramer@asu.edu>
Subject: MarcoRubio'sGordianknot(sorry)

http://theweek.com/articles/594461/marco-rubios-gordian-knot

MarcoRubio'sGordianknot
BythetimeMarcoRubioarrivedinWashingtonin2011,hehadalreadylearnedaprofoundlessonfromBarack
Obama.Thatlesson,whichcamefromObama'selectionin2008,saidthatdespitewhatmuchofhistoryandsome
peopleinWashingtonmightadvise,youdon'thavetowaityourturntorunforpresident.Youdon'thavetoamassa
lengthyrecordingovernment,workyourwayuptheladder,andgetsomegreyaroundyourtemples.Ifyou'vegot
thetalentandthetiming,youcanseizeyourmomentandreachforthatultimateprize.

AndsoRubiodid.ButevenasheremainstheRepublicancandidatethatinformedinsidersaremostbullishon,
somethingisnotrightwithhisbid.Hehascreptupinthepolls,butstillremainsadistantthirdbehindDonaldTrump
andTedCruz.Hedoesn'tleadinanystate,notevenFlorida.Andthemessageonwhichhehasbuilthiscandidacy
seemsallwrongfortheRepublicanelectorateofthemoment.IsthereanywayforRubiotountiethisGordianknot?

PartoftheproblemmaybethattheMarcoRubioof2015doesindeedresembletheBarackObamaof2007:both
young,onlyinWashingtonafewyearsafterstintsintheirstatelegislatures,possessedofnaturalpoliticalskillsandan
abilitytotransfixacrowd,oneblackandtheotherHispanic,bothwithfamilyhistoriestheyskillfullyweaveintothe
storyofAmerica.

Butinthe2008election,Obama'stimingwasimpeccable.Heembodiedaninversionandarejectionofeverythinghis
partyhatedaboutthesittingpresident.Unlikehismainopponent,hehadtherightpositiononthesinglemost
importantissueofthecampaign(theIraqWar).Andhereflectedtheparty'schangingdemographicidentitynot
justwhoitwas,buthowitwantedtoseeitself.

MarcoRubiohasnoneofthat.Thereisnooneissuedominatingtheraceonwhichthere'sacleardivisionbetween
thecandidates.TheleadersofhispartywantandneedtoembraceHispanicvoters,butitsbaseisstilldominatedby
olderwhitepeople.AndthoughfewdoubtthatRubiohasthetalent,histiminglookstobeallwrong.

MorePerspectives JamesPoulos

TheGOP'smissingmiddle

MichaelBrendanDougherty

MidnightinAmerica

Fromthebeginning,Rubiohascharacterizedhimselfasthecandidateofanewgeneration,readytomovetheGOP
intothe21stcentury.ButwhilethatmighthavesomeresonanceagainstHillaryClinton,itisn'tnecessarilywhatthe
Republicanelectoratewants.ObamasucceededwithDemocratsbyofferinghopeandchange,afaithinthecountry's
progressandforwardmovement.ButRepublicanvotersaredifferent.AsI'vewrittenelsewhere,currentRepublican
worriesaboutimmigration,terrorism,same-sexmarriage,andmanyotherissuesareessentiallyallmanifestationsof
onefeeling,thesenseofbeingprofoundlyunsettledbythedirectionthecountryandtheworldismoving.Forvoters
whofeelliketheircountryisslippingawayfromthemandslippingoutofcontrol,changemaybethelastthingthey
wanttobelievein,unlessit'schangethatsimplyturnsbacktheclocktoasimplertime.

Rubiohimselfcan'tseemtofigureouthowtoexpresswhoheiswhilestillappealingtothoseworriedvoters.He
doesn'tdoangerlikeDonaldTrump,andthoughdevoutheisn'tgoingtobethechoiceofevangelicalslikeTedCruz.
Whenhetalksabouthisimmigrantparentssacrificingtogivehimopportunity,it'sstirringbutrightnowRepublican
votersdon'twanttohearaboutthecontributionsimmigrantsmake.

WhenhefirstcametotheSenate,Rubiowoulddropinreferencestorappersinhisspeechestoshowhowhiphe
was,butheisn'tdoingthatanymore.AndinhislatestTVad,hesaysthattheelection"isaboutallofuswhofeelout
ofplaceinourowncountry."Thatshowsthatheunderstandsthealienatedfeelingmanyoldervotershave,whenthey
lookatthewaythecountry'sdemographicsarechanging,itssocialvalueshaveevolvedpastthem,andpopculture
hasbecomeinscrutable,asitalwaysistotheold.

ButtheideathatMarcoRubiofeelsoutofplaceinhiscountryisridiculous,tofriendandfoealike.Thatwas
supposedtobehiswholeappeal,thathewastheonewhowasn'toutofplaceinthenewAmerica.Young,Hispanic
(andbilingual),forward-looking,intouchwithtodayandtomorrow,Rubiowassupposedtobetheonewhowould
leadthepartyintoabrightfuture,notsitdowninarockingchairwiththemtopineforthepast.

That'stheconundrumRubiohasn'tyetsolved.Insomanywayshe'stheperfectcandidateforRepublicansorat
leastthebestthey'vegotbuthe'sexactlywrongforwheretheRepublicanelectorateisrightnow.
 From: JohnBDunlop<jbdunlop@stanford.edu>
Senttime: 12/17/201509:50:53AM
To: martin.dewhirst@gmail.com
Cc: robertotto25@gmail.com
Subject: FW:[EVENINGITEMSOFNOTE/12-16]Fwd:[MNT]NYTimesOP-ED:SticktoSanctionsonRussia........ODDDII:UAAssistanceintheOmnibusSpendingBillPaulGonTwoNewOutrageousRUCharges......UKForeignSec'sTakeonPutininSyria.....GeneralClar...

From:WalterZaryckyj[mailto:waz2102@caa.columbia.edu]
Sent:Wednesday,December16,20155:28PM
Subject:Fwd:[EVENINGITEMSOFNOTE/12-16]Fwd:[MNT]NYTimesOP-ED:SticktoSanctionsonRussia........ODDDII:UAAssistanceintheOmnibusSpendingBillPaulGonTwoNewOutrageousRUCharges......UKForeignSec'sTakeonPutininSyria.....GeneralClar...

----------Forwardedmessage----------
From:WalterZaryckyj<waz2102@caa.columbia.edu>
Date:Wed,Dec16,2015at8:22PM
Subject:[EVENINGITEMSOFNOTE/12-16]Fwd:[MNT]NYTimesOP-ED:SticktoSanctionsonRussia........ODDDII:UAAssistanceintheOmnibusSpendingBillPaulGonTwoNewOutrageousRUCharges......UKForeignSec'sTakeonPutininSyria.....GeneralClarkonPutininUkraine.......[WD]EmergencyOpecmeetingairedasRussiabracesforsub-$30
To:RomaHadzewycz<staff@ukrweekly.com>,rl<romashka1@aol.com>

----------Forwardedmessage----------
From:MartaTorielli<mapta@icloud.com>
Date:Wed,Dec16,2015at7:33PM
Subject:NYTimes:SticktoSanctionsonRussia
To:waz2102@caa.columbia.edu

http://www.nytimes.com/2015/12/17/opinion/stick-to-sanctions-on-russia.html?smid=nytcore-ipad-share&smprod=nytcore-ipad

TheWestmustnotselloutUkrainetojoinPutinsallianceagainstISIS.

SentfrommyiPad

TheOpinionPages|OP-EDCONTRIBUTOR

SticktoSanctionsonRussia
ByANDREWFOXALL DEC.16,2015
TheRussianpresident,VladimirV.Putin,gotthebetterendofthedealin Advertisement
MinskII.HeforcedUkrainetoacceptaslegitimatetheauthoritieshe
installedintheterritoriesinvadedbyRussia.Heweightedthedealsoasto
ensurethattheUkrainianpresident,PetroO.Poroshenko,wouldcome
underpressurefrombothhispoliticalalliesandenemieswhenKievhonored
itscommitments.AndhemadeUkrainesprogresstowardpotential
EuropeanUnionmembershipagreatdealmorecomplicated.

Forallofthis,itisMr.PutinwhohasdonetheleasttoensureMinskII
remainsinplace.

Hehasdemonstratedthathehastheabilitytostopandstartthewarin
Ukrainewhenitsuitshim.Inthefirstsixmonthsfollowingthedeal,the
OrganizationforSecurityandCooperationinEuroperecordeddaily
violationsincludingnotonlysmall-armsfire,buttheuseofmortars,tanks
andheavyartillery.Then,onSept.1,thewarstoppedjustasRussian
forcesbeganarrivinginSyria.

Fortwomonths,therewas,astheO.S.C.E.reported,relativecalm.Then,
inearlyNovember,hostilitiesresumedandtherehavebeendozensof
incidentsdaily.TheRussia-backedseparatistforceshaveescalatedthe
conflictagain.

Itisnotonlythroughbreakingthecease-firethatMr.Putinhasviolated
MinskII.Allforeignarmedgroups,weaponsandmercenariesshouldhave
beenwithdrawnfromUkraine.YetRussiacontinuestodeploy
anestimated9,000regulartroops,andcontrolsover30,000irregular
troops,intheso-calledpeoplesrepublicsofDonetskandLuhansk.

TheO.S.C.E.shouldbefreetooverseetheimplementationoftheagreement,
butRussiasproxyforceshaverestrictedtheorganizationsabilityto
monitorthecease-fire,denieditaccesstotheUkraine-Russiaborder,and
refusedtoprovideitwithdetailsoftheirheavyweapons.TheO.S.C.E.
surveillancedrones,whichareusedtoobservetheseparatist-controlled
territories,havebeensubjectedtomilitary-gradeGPSjammingbythe
separatists,renderingthemuseless.

TherepublicsofDonetskandLuhanskaresupposedtoallowhumanitarian
aidtobedistributedineasternUkraineinstead,theyhaveblockedit.In
September,theLuhanskauthoritiesstopped10internationalhumanitarian
organizations,includingUnicef,fromenteringtheseparatist-heldterritory
inOctober,theDonetskauthoritiesstoppedDoctorsWithoutBordersfrom
operatingthere.AccordingtotheUnitedNations,thetworepublicsare
depriving150,000peopleofmonthlyfoodhandouts.

Yet,RussiahasescapedcensurefromtheEuropeangovernmentsthat
brokeredtheMinskIIagreement.Thesamegovernmentsarepreoccupied
withotherissues:theSyrianwar,theself-declaredIslamicStateandthe
refugeecrisis.

Advertisement
ThereasonsforRussiasviolationsareunclear.Mr.PutinmaybeseekingtoderailUkrainesprogresstowardmembershipintheEuropeanUnion,includingthefree-tradeagreementscheduledtocomeintoeffectonJan.1,andtherebyundermineKievspro-Westerngovernment.HemayalsobetryingtousetheglobalattentiononSyriatoincreasethemilitarypressureonKiev,inthehopethatMr.Poroshenkowillcapitulateto
MoscowsdemandsoverapoliticalsettlementineasternUkraine.

WhateverMr.Putinsmotivations,itisclearthatheseestheworlds
distractionfromUkraineasasignoftheWestsweakness.Andthatonly
temptsRussiaspresidentmore.

SpeakinginMarch,thepresidentoftheEuropeanCouncil,Donald
Tusk,saidthatEuropeanUnionsanctionsimposedonRussiaafterits
invasionofUkrainelastyearwouldnotbelifteduntiltherewascomplete
implementationofMinskII.Butthatwasbeforetheterroristattacksin
ParisledFrancetoreachouttoRussia.Mr.PutiniswageringthattheWest
willtradeanallianceinSyriaforconcessionsonUkraine.

TheEuropeanUnioncannotallowsanctionstolapse.Ifthatweretohappen,
theunionwouldconcede,ineffect,thatRussiamightinvadeanddestabilize
anyterritoryitpleased.Russiawouldhavetriumphedovertheworldorder
imposedbytheWestaftertheColdWar.AndMoscowsauthoritarianism
willhavedefeatedBrusselsliberaldemocracy.

Butsimplyrenewingexistingsanctionswillnotbeenough.Norwillsetting
newcease-firedeadlinesifRussiabreakstheexistingones.

TheEuropeanUnionmusttightenitsenforcementofitssanctions.Its
diplomaticserviceshouldexaminehowsanctionedindividualsandentities
havebeenabletocircumventrestrictionsinparticularmemberstates.

ForUkraineandtheWest,theprimaryobjectiveshouldbetoensure
adherencetoMinskIIstartingwithUkrainesregainingcontroloverallits
borders,whichissupposedtohappenbytheendoftheyear.Toachievethis,
theWestmustdemonstratebothawillingnesstotalktoMr.Putinanda
readinesstoratchetupsanctionsuntilRussiameetsitscommitments.Many
seniorRussians,includingMr.Putinhimself,withfinancialinterestsinthe
Westhaveyettobesanctioned.

PunishingRussiaforbadbehaviorisnotenoughtheWestmustdomoreto
helpUkraine.WereMr.Putintoescalatethewar,Kievsarmywouldnotbe
abletodefeattheelitetroopsandconscriptedforcesoftheoil-fueledgiant
evenifRussiaisalsofightinginSyria.TheWestmustcontinuesending
militaryadviserstoKiev,trainingUkrainianforcesandshippingmilitary
equipment,ifonlytoincreasethecoststoMr.Putinofanynewintervention.

Withoutsuchmeasures,Europeangovernmentsthatareconsideringallying
withRussiainSyriariskencouragingMr.PutinsrenewedwarinUkraine.

AndrewFoxallisthedirectoroftheRussiaStudiesCenterattheHenry
JacksonSociety,aLondon-basedinternationalaffairsthinktank.

FollowTheNewYorkTimesOpinionsectiononFacebookandTwitter,and
signupfortheOpinionTodaynewsletter

----------Forwardedmessage----------
From:Deychak,Orest<Orest.Deychak@mail.house.gov>
Date:Wed,Dec16,2015at4:43PM
Subject:UkraineAssistanceinOmnibusspendingbillWoE
To:"Deychak,Orest"<Orest.Deychak@mail.house.gov>

FY16OmnibusBill/consolidateappropriationsbill(tobevotedonwithinnextfewdaysbyhouseandsenate)

ExcerptsfromOmnibusbillthatmentionspecificfundsforukraine--$658,185,000underState/ForeignOperationsappropriations+$250millionformilitaryassistanceunderDefenseAppropriations(scrollbelow)
Note:The$658,185,000representsan$145,000,000increaseabovethePresidentsinitialrequesttoCongressforFY16includeseconomic,security,humanitarianandreform-relatedassistance(includingathird$1billionloanguarantee)undertheState-ForeignOperationsappropriationsbill.

independentstatesoftheformersovietunion

Sec.7069.(a)Assistanceforukraine.OfthefundsappropriatedbythisActundertitlesIIIthroughVI,notlessthan$658,185,000shallbemadeavailableforassistanceforUkraine.

(b)Limitation.NoneofthefundsappropriatedbythisActmaybemadeavailableforassistanceforagovernmentofanIndependentStateoftheformerSovietUnionifthatgovernmentdirectsanyactioninviolationoftheterritorialintegrityornationalsovereigntyofanyotherIndependentStateoftheformerSovietUnion,suchasthoseviolationsincludedintheHelsinkiFinalAct:Provided,Thatexceptasotherwiseprovidedinsection7070(a)ofthisAct,fundsmaybemadeavailablewithoutregardtothe
restrictioninthissubsectionifthePresidentdeterminesthattodosoisinthenationalsecurityinterestoftheUnitedStates:Providedfurther,ThatpriortoexecutingtheauthoritycontainedinthissubsectiontheDepartmentofStateshallconsultwiththeCommitteesonAppropriationsonhowsuchassistancesupportsthenationalsecurityinterestoftheUnitedStates.

(c)Section907oftheFreedomSupportAct.Section907oftheFREEDOMSupportActshallnotapplyto

(1)activitiestosupportdemocracyorassistanceundertitleVoftheFREEDOMSupportActandsection1424oftheDefenseAgainstWeaponsofMassDestructionActof1996(50U.S.C.2333)ornon-proliferationassistance

(2)anyassistanceprovidedbytheTradeandDevelopmentAgencyundersection661oftheForeignAssistanceActof1961(22U.S.C.2421)

(3)anyactivitycarriedoutbyamemberoftheUnitedStatesandForeignCommercialServicewhileactingwithinhisorherofficialcapacity

(4)anyinsurance,reinsurance,guarantee,orotherassistanceprovidedbytheOverseasPrivateInvestmentCorporationundertitleIVofchapter2ofpartIoftheForeignAssistanceActof1961(22U.S.C.2191etseq.)

(5)anyfinancingprovidedundertheExport-ImportBankActof1945or

(6)humanitarianassistance.

[]

Sec.9014.FortheUkraineSecurityAssistanceInitiative,$250,000,000isherebyappropriated,toremainavailableuntilSeptember30,2016:Provided,ThatsuchfundsshallbeavailabletotheSecretaryofDefense,incoordinationwiththeSecretaryofState,toprovideassistance,includingtrainingequipmentlethalweaponsofadefensivenaturelogisticssupport,suppliesandservicessustainmentandintelligencesupporttothemilitaryandnationalsecurityforcesofUkraine,andfor
replacementofanyweaponsordefensivearticlesprovidedtotheGovernmentofUkrainefromtheinventoryoftheUnitedStates:Providedfurther,ThattheSecretaryofDefenseshall,notlessthan15dayspriortoobligatingfundsprovidedunderthisheading,notifythecongressionaldefensecommitteesinwritingofthedetailsofanysuchobligation:Providedfurther,ThattheUnitedStatesmayacceptequipmentprocuredusingfundsprovidedunderthisheadinginthisorpriorActsthatwastransferredto
thesecurityforcesofUkraineandreturnedbysuchforcestotheUnitedStates:Providedfurther,ThatequipmentprocuredusingfundsprovidedunderthisheadinginthisorpriorActs,andnotyettransferredtothemilitaryorNationalSecurityForcesofUkraineorreturnedbysuchforcestotheUnitedStates,maybetreatedasstocksoftheDepartmentofDefenseuponwrittennotificationtothecongressionaldefensecommittees:Providedfurther,Thatamountsmadeavailablebythissectionare
designatedbytheCongressforOverseasContingencyOperations/GlobalWaronTerrorismpursuanttosection251(b)(2)(A)(ii)oftheBalancedBudgetandEmergencyDeficitControlActof1985.

[]

WindowonEurasia
Wednesday,December16,2015

TwoOutrageousRussianChargesPointtoNewDangersAheadforUkraine

windowoneurasia2.blogspot.com/2015/12/two-outrageous-russian-charges-point-to.html

PaulGoble

Staunton,December16TwonewandcompletelyoutrageousRussianchargesthattheCrimeanTatarsareunderthecontrolofTurkishintelligenceandthattheUkrainianLibraryinMoscowwasinvolvedinthepreparationofterroristactionsintheRussiancapitalpointtoanewroundofincreaseddangersforUkraine.

SincetheshootingdownoftheRussianplanethatviolatedTurkishairspace,theoccupationauthoritiesinCrimeahavefrequentlysuggestedthattheCrimeanTatarsareundertheinfluenceofTurkishintelligenceservices,acharge,MustafaDzhemilyev,theleaderofthatnation,saysincreasesthethreatagainstit(qha.com.ua/ru/politika/aksenov-zayavlyaet-chto-krimskie-tatari-pod-vliyaniem-turetskoi-razvedki/152504/).

SpeakinginKyivyesterday,DzhemilyevsaidthatgiventhattheCrimeanTatarsarecloseandrelatedtotheTurkishpeople,thenthewildanti-TurkishbacchanalialedbyPutinconcernsthemaswell.Andtragically,itisalreadyhavinganimpactinCrimeanotonlyatthelevelofdeclarationsbutalsoofofficialactions.

InCrimea,hecontinued,dozensoffamiliesofTurks,includingthoseinmixedmarriageswithCrimeanTatars,arebeingsubjectedtodeportation,andallbusinessmenwhohavetieswithTurkishfirmsareatthelevelofcollapse.AndtheheadoftheoccupationsaysthatCrimeanTatarsarecooperatingwiththeintelligenceserviceofacountryhostiletoRussia.

Allthispropagandahysteria,Dzhemilyevsaid,verymuchrecallsthosemethodswithwhichtheSovietauthoritiesatonetimeattemptedtojustifythedeportationandgenocideoftheCrimeanTatarpeople.

AsecondoutrageousRussianclaimconcernstheMoscowLibraryofUkrainianLiterature.Uptonow,theMoscowmediahavesuggestedthattheraidsagainstitandthechargesagainstitsdirector,NatalyaSharina,wereaboutthesupposedpresenceofanti-Russianmaterials.

Buttoday,inadangerousshift,theNashaversiyaportalsaysthattherealreasonthatMoscowpoliceraidedthecenteristhattheysuspectedthatitwasthebasefortheorganizationofterroristattacksintheRussiancapitalorelsewhereintheRussianFederation(versia.ru/kak-ukrainskie-yekstremisty-svili-gnezdo-v-centre-moskvy).


Specifically,itsaidthatashasbecomeknowntothecorrespondentofNashaVersia,theinvestigationisaboveallinterestedinthedetailsaboutthepossiblepreparationbyguestsoftheUkrainianlibraryofterroristactsinMoscow.Information,testifyingtothepreparationofterroristactshasalreadybeenobtainedbylawenforcementpersonnel.

Intodaysoverheatedenvironment,suchchargesbothagainsttheCrimeanTatarsandagainsttheUkrainiansmoregenerallysuggestthatatleastsomeintheRussiancapitalarelayingthegroundworkforanewdemonizationofUkraineinpreparationforpossibleoffensivemovesagainstitspeopleandstateinthenearfuture.

----------Forwardedmessage----------
From:WalterDerzko<wderzko@pathcom.com>
Date:Wed,Dec16,2015at7:03PM
Subject:UKFOREIGNSECRETARYPhilipHammondtodayadmittedministershaveNOIDEAwhatRussiaisuptoinSyria.
To:1WalterZarycky<waz2102@caa.columbia.edu>,1WolodymyrZarycky<wzarcusur@gmail.com>,wderzko@pathcom.com

HammondadmitshehasNOIDEAwhatRussiaisuptoinSyria&accusesPutinofaidingISIS[ED:INTERESTINGCONTRASTWITHSECKERRY]

FOREIGNSECRETARYPhilipHammondtodayadmittedministershaveNOIDEAwhatRussiaisuptoinSyria.

Thetruthiswesimplydon'tknowwhattheRussianstrategyis.

MrHammondwasaskedbyformerLabourministerStephenTwiggwhetheritwas"clear"Russia'spriorityistoprotecttheregimeofSyriandictatorBasharal-Assad,acloseallyofKremlinleaderVladimirPutin.

ButtheForeignSecretaryconfessedhehadlittleideawhatRussia'sforeignpolicyaimsare.

Hesaid:"Ilongsincegaveupusingtheword'clear'todescribeanythingaboutRussianpolicybecauseit'sanythingbutclear-it'salwaysopaque.

"Thetruthiswesimplydon'tknowwhattheRussianstrategyis.Wedon'tknowwhattheirobjectivesareandactuallymyassessmentismostpeopleintheRussiansystemdon'tknow.

"PerhapsMrPutinhasinhisheadanideaaboutwhattheendgameishere.

"WhatIdoknowisthatsome75percentofRussianairstrikesarebeingconductedagainstpeoplewebelievehavetobepartofthesolutiontotheSyrianproblemandnotagainstDaesh,whichwe'reveryclearistheenemy."

ThebattleagainstISISmilitants(alsoabbreviatedasDaesh,ISIL,ISandIslamicState)continuesintheMiddleEast.

MrHammondhadearliertoldMPsthefactamajorityofRussianairstrikesweretargetedatSyriaoppositionforceswashelpingISISretaincontrolofitsstrongholds,includingitsself-declaredcapitalRaqqa.

Hesaid:""Withourcoalitionpartners,includingtheUnitedStates,wewillcontinuetourgetheRussiansateveryopportunitytofocustheirfiresolelyonDaesh.

"ItisunacceptablethatRussianactionisweakeningtheoppositionandthusgivingadvantagetotheveryDaeshforcesthattheyclaimtobeengagedagainst."

----------Forwardedmessage----------
From:IhorKozak<ihor.kozak.canada@gmail.com>
Date:Wed,Dec16,2015at12:02PM
Subject:FW:DianeFrancis/interviewwihtGeneralClark
To:ihor.kozak.canada@gmail.com

IputDianeFrancisintouchwithGeneralWesleyClarkhereisherlatest
piece,stemmingfromthatinterview--freshfromtheprint,whileKerryis
stillinMoscowwithPutin:

http://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/new-atlanticist/ukraine-is-a-work-in-pr
ogress-by-putin-says-general-wesley-clark

Plsshareonsocialmedia.Thanks

-----OriginalMessage-----
From:DianeFrancis
Sent:Wednesday,December16,201511:08AM
To:IhorKozakWesleyClark
Subject:ClarkpieceonlineAtlantic

TweetitoutwhileKerry'sstillwithPutinBestthanksDiane

SentfrommyiPhone

DECEMBER16,2015

"UkraineisaworkinprogressbyPutin,"SaysGeneralWesleyClark
BYDIANEFRANCIS

RetiredUSArmygeneralWesleyClarkspeaksonapanelduringtheClintonGlobalInitiative'sannualmeetinginNewYork,September29,2015.Credit:REUTERS/LucasJackson

RetiredUSArmyGeneralWesleyClark,formerNATOSupremeAlliedCommander,Europe,hascampaignedsince2014toconvinceWesterngovernmentstoprovidelethalaidtoUkrainetofendoffRussia'soccupationof9percentofitsterritory.

Inawide-ranginginterview,hetalkedaboutwhythishasn'thappenedandaboutRussianPresidentVladimirPutin'swaragainstUkraineandEurope,hisSyrianstrategy,andhisoverallgameplan.
"WeshouldhavegivendefensivelethalweaponstoUkraine,"hesaid."Ifwe'dgiventhemdefensiveweapons,manylivescouldhavebeensaved.Therearemajorhumanconsequenceshere."

Overallcasualtiesnowmountto9,100upfrom6,200inspring2015accordingtoaUnitedNationsreportissuedDecember9.Russiadeniesdirectmilitaryinvolvementbutnoonebelievesthat.Moscowclaimsseparatistsareincharge,butNATO,Clark,andtheUNhaveevidencetothecontrary.Russia'sinvolvementisdirectandmurderous.

OnDecember11,UNAmbassadorSamanthaPower,ActingChairoftheUNSecurityCouncil,bluntlystated:"Russiacontinuestoarm,train,support,andfightalongsideseparatistsineasternUkraine."

Asmattersstand,Clarksaid,RussiacouldinvadeUkrainewithafewbrigades,butitwon'tfortworeasons.ThecurrentstrategyofharassmentanddestabilizationservesPutin'soverallpurpose,and,second,bynotovertlyusingmilitarytroopsPutinbelieveshecangettheEuropeanstoeasesanctions.

"UkraineisaworkinprogressbyPutin.HehasmultiplechannelstoattackUkraine,economically,politically,diplomatically,militarily,"hesaid."Hewantstogetsanctionslifted,sohe'snotdeepeninghis[overt]militaryactivitiesintoUkraine.Buteverydaythereareshootingincidents."

"HehasabiggameplanandthatistobreakuptheEuropeanUnion,aweakenedNATO,restoreRussia'sdefensivearea[WarsawPact]andcontrolUkraineandBelarus,"hesaid."He'sdoingthisthroughcovertops,sabotageinUkraine,militaryaggression,theseparatistmovements,economics,diplomacy,buyingpeopleintheEU,andputtingFSBmoneytowardenvironmentalgroupstoprotestagainstfrackingtokeepEuropedependentonRussianoilandgas."

Forinstance,Putinfriend,formerGermanChancellorGerhardSchroeder,hasgottenwealthyworkingforGazprom,theRussianstategascompany.He'snotalone.ManyotherprominentpoliticiansinGermanyandthroughoutEuropehavesimilarlybeenco-opted."Russiausesmoneytobuyinfluence,"hesaid."RussianbusinessdealsinvolveI'lldothisandyoudothat.Putinisworkingawebofinfluence."

Clearly,Europehasbeencompromised.EuropehadtobedraggedintosanctionsandGermanyandFrancebungledthingsbylargelyacceptingRussia'stermsconcerningaceasefireagreement,thenallowingMoscowtoflouttheagreementwithoutmajorconsequences."TheUnitedStateshasdoneitsbesttoempoweritsalliestogetinvolved,"commentedtheGeneral.

Whyhasn'ttheUnitedStatesgottenmoreinvolved,giventhatPutinwithhisarsenalofnuclearweaponsisperhapsmoredangerousthanISIS?

"OurgovernmentisworriedbutnotsolelyfocusedonEurope,"hesaid."Theadministrationhasmultipleforeignpolicyobjectives.Ithasresponsibilitynotjusttotheoverallstrategy,butalsotoAmericanpublicopinion.Foreignpolicyreflectsdomesticpolitics.ThePresidentdecideditwasimportanttogetIrantosignthedealandheneededPutinforthat."

"ThePresidentknowswhatPutinisallaboutbuthewasrighttogettheIraniandeal,"hesaid.

Putin'spivotintoSyriatohelpSyrianPresidentBasharal-Assadisanothertactic,quiteseparate,tomeethisoverallobjectives.

"Ifthere'sawaytousePutintocontrolAssadfine.ThereisnosolutiontoISISwithoutapoliticalsolution.SunnisfromSaudiArabiaandTurkeymustacceptsomeroleforIran(aShianation).IranhasgottoacceptitcannotcontrolallofSyria,"hesaid.

SunnisandShiasmustunitetostartfightingISIS,hesuggested.

WasUkraineputonapolicybackburnerbecauseofISIS?

"Youmustkeepthesetwothings[SyriaandUkraine]separate,"hesaid."UkrainemusthavetheabilitytodefenditselfandapoliticalprocessmusttakeplacetodestroyISIS.NeitherUkrainenortheUnitedStatescangiveinonthelegalstatusofCrimea,aspartofUkraine.IwashappytoseeVicePresidentJoeBidenrepeatthat.We'vegottosupportUkraine.ButtheadministrationmustworkbothtosupportUkraineandtoleadthecoalitiontodestroyISIS."
ShouldthefactthatTurkey,aNATOmember,shotdownaRussiamilitaryjetwithoutmilitaryretaliation,emboldentheWesttoproperlyarmandencourageUkrainetopushRussiaoutofitsterritory?"TurkeygavemultiplewarningstoRussiaaboutitsjets.ItwasatestbyPutin.HeshovedandwantedtoseehowmuchgumptionTurkeyhad,"saidtheGeneral.HefoundoutthattheTurkswouldstanduptohim.

It'stimefortheWesttodothesame.

DianeFrancisisaSeniorFellowattheAtlanticCouncil'sDinuPatriciuEurasiaCenter,EditoratLargewiththeNationalPostinCanada,aDistinguishedProfessoratRyersonUniversity'sTedRogersSchoolofManagement,andauthoroftenbooks.

---------Forwardedmessage----------
From:WalterDerzko<wderzko@pathcom.com>
Date:Wed,Dec16,2015at9:27AM
Subject:EmergencyOpecmeetingairedasRussiabracesforsub-$30
To:1WalterZarycky<waz2102@caa.columbia.edu>,1WolodymyrZarycky<wzarcusur@gmail.com>,wderzko@pathcom.com

EmergencyOpecmeetingairedasRussiabracesforsub-$30oil

Oilmarketsarebecomingdangerouswithnogrown-upincharge.Sparecapacityiswafer-thin,despitetheglut,andanyupsetcouldtriggeranoilshock

AmbroseEvans-Pritchard8:45PMGMT14Dec2015http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/12050437/Emergency-Opecmeeting-aired-as-Russia-braces-for-sub-30-oil.html

 From: JohnBDunlop<jbdunlop@stanford.edu>
Senttime: 12/17/201509:50:53AM
To: martin.dewhirst@gmail.com
Cc: robertotto25@gmail.com
Subject: FW:[EVENINGITEMSOFNOTE/12-16]Fwd:[MNT]NYTimesOP-ED:SticktoSanctionsonRussia........ODDDII:UAAssistanceintheOmnibusSpendingBillPaulGonTwoNewOutrageousRUCharges......UKForeignSec'sTakeonPutininSyria.....GeneralClar...

From:WalterZaryckyj[mailto:waz2102@caa.columbia.edu]
Sent:Wednesday,December16,20155:28PM
Subject:Fwd:[EVENINGITEMSOFNOTE/12-16]Fwd:[MNT]NYTimesOP-ED:SticktoSanctionsonRussia........ODDDII:UAAssistanceintheOmnibusSpendingBillPaulGonTwoNewOutrageousRUCharges......UKForeignSec'sTakeonPutininSyria.....GeneralClar...

----------Forwardedmessage----------
From:WalterZaryckyj<waz2102@caa.columbia.edu>
Date:Wed,Dec16,2015at8:22PM
Subject:[EVENINGITEMSOFNOTE/12-16]Fwd:[MNT]NYTimesOP-ED:SticktoSanctionsonRussia........ODDDII:UAAssistanceintheOmnibusSpendingBillPaulGonTwoNewOutrageousRUCharges......UKForeignSec'sTakeonPutininSyria.....GeneralClarkonPutininUkraine.......[WD]EmergencyOpecmeetingairedasRussiabracesforsub-$30
To:RomaHadzewycz<staff@ukrweekly.com>,rl<romashka1@aol.com>

----------Forwardedmessage----------
From:MartaTorielli<mapta@icloud.com>
Date:Wed,Dec16,2015at7:33PM
Subject:NYTimes:SticktoSanctionsonRussia
To:waz2102@caa.columbia.edu

http://www.nytimes.com/2015/12/17/opinion/stick-to-sanctions-on-russia.html?smid=nytcore-ipad-share&smprod=nytcore-ipad

TheWestmustnotselloutUkrainetojoinPutinsallianceagainstISIS.

SentfrommyiPad

TheOpinionPages|OP-EDCONTRIBUTOR

SticktoSanctionsonRussia
ByANDREWFOXALL DEC.16,2015
TheRussianpresident,VladimirV.Putin,gotthebetterendofthedealin Advertisement
MinskII.HeforcedUkrainetoacceptaslegitimatetheauthoritieshe
installedintheterritoriesinvadedbyRussia.Heweightedthedealsoasto
ensurethattheUkrainianpresident,PetroO.Poroshenko,wouldcome
underpressurefrombothhispoliticalalliesandenemieswhenKievhonored
itscommitments.AndhemadeUkrainesprogresstowardpotential
EuropeanUnionmembershipagreatdealmorecomplicated.

Forallofthis,itisMr.PutinwhohasdonetheleasttoensureMinskII
remainsinplace.

Hehasdemonstratedthathehastheabilitytostopandstartthewarin
Ukrainewhenitsuitshim.Inthefirstsixmonthsfollowingthedeal,the
OrganizationforSecurityandCooperationinEuroperecordeddaily
violationsincludingnotonlysmall-armsfire,buttheuseofmortars,tanks
andheavyartillery.Then,onSept.1,thewarstoppedjustasRussian
forcesbeganarrivinginSyria.

Fortwomonths,therewas,astheO.S.C.E.reported,relativecalm.Then,
inearlyNovember,hostilitiesresumedandtherehavebeendozensof
incidentsdaily.TheRussia-backedseparatistforceshaveescalatedthe
conflictagain.

Itisnotonlythroughbreakingthecease-firethatMr.Putinhasviolated
MinskII.Allforeignarmedgroups,weaponsandmercenariesshouldhave
beenwithdrawnfromUkraine.YetRussiacontinuestodeploy
anestimated9,000regulartroops,andcontrolsover30,000irregular
troops,intheso-calledpeoplesrepublicsofDonetskandLuhansk.

TheO.S.C.E.shouldbefreetooverseetheimplementationoftheagreement,
butRussiasproxyforceshaverestrictedtheorganizationsabilityto
monitorthecease-fire,denieditaccesstotheUkraine-Russiaborder,and
refusedtoprovideitwithdetailsoftheirheavyweapons.TheO.S.C.E.
surveillancedrones,whichareusedtoobservetheseparatist-controlled
territories,havebeensubjectedtomilitary-gradeGPSjammingbythe
separatists,renderingthemuseless.

TherepublicsofDonetskandLuhanskaresupposedtoallowhumanitarian
aidtobedistributedineasternUkraineinstead,theyhaveblockedit.In
September,theLuhanskauthoritiesstopped10internationalhumanitarian
organizations,includingUnicef,fromenteringtheseparatist-heldterritory
inOctober,theDonetskauthoritiesstoppedDoctorsWithoutBordersfrom
operatingthere.AccordingtotheUnitedNations,thetworepublicsare
depriving150,000peopleofmonthlyfoodhandouts.

Yet,RussiahasescapedcensurefromtheEuropeangovernmentsthat
brokeredtheMinskIIagreement.Thesamegovernmentsarepreoccupied
withotherissues:theSyrianwar,theself-declaredIslamicStateandthe
refugeecrisis.

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ThereasonsforRussiasviolationsareunclear.Mr.PutinmaybeseekingtoderailUkrainesprogresstowardmembershipintheEuropeanUnion,includingthefree-tradeagreementscheduledtocomeintoeffectonJan.1,andtherebyundermineKievspro-Westerngovernment.HemayalsobetryingtousetheglobalattentiononSyriatoincreasethemilitarypressureonKiev,inthehopethatMr.Poroshenkowillcapitulateto
MoscowsdemandsoverapoliticalsettlementineasternUkraine.

WhateverMr.Putinsmotivations,itisclearthatheseestheworlds
distractionfromUkraineasasignoftheWestsweakness.Andthatonly
temptsRussiaspresidentmore.

SpeakinginMarch,thepresidentoftheEuropeanCouncil,Donald
Tusk,saidthatEuropeanUnionsanctionsimposedonRussiaafterits
invasionofUkrainelastyearwouldnotbelifteduntiltherewascomplete
implementationofMinskII.Butthatwasbeforetheterroristattacksin
ParisledFrancetoreachouttoRussia.Mr.PutiniswageringthattheWest
willtradeanallianceinSyriaforconcessionsonUkraine.

TheEuropeanUnioncannotallowsanctionstolapse.Ifthatweretohappen,
theunionwouldconcede,ineffect,thatRussiamightinvadeanddestabilize
anyterritoryitpleased.Russiawouldhavetriumphedovertheworldorder
imposedbytheWestaftertheColdWar.AndMoscowsauthoritarianism
willhavedefeatedBrusselsliberaldemocracy.

Butsimplyrenewingexistingsanctionswillnotbeenough.Norwillsetting
newcease-firedeadlinesifRussiabreakstheexistingones.

TheEuropeanUnionmusttightenitsenforcementofitssanctions.Its
diplomaticserviceshouldexaminehowsanctionedindividualsandentities
havebeenabletocircumventrestrictionsinparticularmemberstates.

ForUkraineandtheWest,theprimaryobjectiveshouldbetoensure
adherencetoMinskIIstartingwithUkrainesregainingcontroloverallits
borders,whichissupposedtohappenbytheendoftheyear.Toachievethis,
theWestmustdemonstratebothawillingnesstotalktoMr.Putinanda
readinesstoratchetupsanctionsuntilRussiameetsitscommitments.Many
seniorRussians,includingMr.Putinhimself,withfinancialinterestsinthe
Westhaveyettobesanctioned.

PunishingRussiaforbadbehaviorisnotenoughtheWestmustdomoreto
helpUkraine.WereMr.Putintoescalatethewar,Kievsarmywouldnotbe
abletodefeattheelitetroopsandconscriptedforcesoftheoil-fueledgiant
evenifRussiaisalsofightinginSyria.TheWestmustcontinuesending
militaryadviserstoKiev,trainingUkrainianforcesandshippingmilitary
equipment,ifonlytoincreasethecoststoMr.Putinofanynewintervention.

Withoutsuchmeasures,Europeangovernmentsthatareconsideringallying
withRussiainSyriariskencouragingMr.PutinsrenewedwarinUkraine.

AndrewFoxallisthedirectoroftheRussiaStudiesCenterattheHenry
JacksonSociety,aLondon-basedinternationalaffairsthinktank.

FollowTheNewYorkTimesOpinionsectiononFacebookandTwitter,and
signupfortheOpinionTodaynewsletter

----------Forwardedmessage----------
From:Deychak,Orest<Orest.Deychak@mail.house.gov>
Date:Wed,Dec16,2015at4:43PM
Subject:UkraineAssistanceinOmnibusspendingbillWoE
To:"Deychak,Orest"<Orest.Deychak@mail.house.gov>

FY16OmnibusBill/consolidateappropriationsbill(tobevotedonwithinnextfewdaysbyhouseandsenate)

ExcerptsfromOmnibusbillthatmentionspecificfundsforukraine--$658,185,000underState/ForeignOperationsappropriations+$250millionformilitaryassistanceunderDefenseAppropriations(scrollbelow)
Note:The$658,185,000representsan$145,000,000increaseabovethePresidentsinitialrequesttoCongressforFY16includeseconomic,security,humanitarianandreform-relatedassistance(includingathird$1billionloanguarantee)undertheState-ForeignOperationsappropriationsbill.

independentstatesoftheformersovietunion

Sec.7069.(a)Assistanceforukraine.OfthefundsappropriatedbythisActundertitlesIIIthroughVI,notlessthan$658,185,000shallbemadeavailableforassistanceforUkraine.

(b)Limitation.NoneofthefundsappropriatedbythisActmaybemadeavailableforassistanceforagovernmentofanIndependentStateoftheformerSovietUnionifthatgovernmentdirectsanyactioninviolationoftheterritorialintegrityornationalsovereigntyofanyotherIndependentStateoftheformerSovietUnion,suchasthoseviolationsincludedintheHelsinkiFinalAct:Provided,Thatexceptasotherwiseprovidedinsection7070(a)ofthisAct,fundsmaybemadeavailablewithoutregardtothe
restrictioninthissubsectionifthePresidentdeterminesthattodosoisinthenationalsecurityinterestoftheUnitedStates:Providedfurther,ThatpriortoexecutingtheauthoritycontainedinthissubsectiontheDepartmentofStateshallconsultwiththeCommitteesonAppropriationsonhowsuchassistancesupportsthenationalsecurityinterestoftheUnitedStates.

(c)Section907oftheFreedomSupportAct.Section907oftheFREEDOMSupportActshallnotapplyto

(1)activitiestosupportdemocracyorassistanceundertitleVoftheFREEDOMSupportActandsection1424oftheDefenseAgainstWeaponsofMassDestructionActof1996(50U.S.C.2333)ornon-proliferationassistance

(2)anyassistanceprovidedbytheTradeandDevelopmentAgencyundersection661oftheForeignAssistanceActof1961(22U.S.C.2421)

(3)anyactivitycarriedoutbyamemberoftheUnitedStatesandForeignCommercialServicewhileactingwithinhisorherofficialcapacity

(4)anyinsurance,reinsurance,guarantee,orotherassistanceprovidedbytheOverseasPrivateInvestmentCorporationundertitleIVofchapter2ofpartIoftheForeignAssistanceActof1961(22U.S.C.2191etseq.)

(5)anyfinancingprovidedundertheExport-ImportBankActof1945or

(6)humanitarianassistance.

[]

Sec.9014.FortheUkraineSecurityAssistanceInitiative,$250,000,000isherebyappropriated,toremainavailableuntilSeptember30,2016:Provided,ThatsuchfundsshallbeavailabletotheSecretaryofDefense,incoordinationwiththeSecretaryofState,toprovideassistance,includingtrainingequipmentlethalweaponsofadefensivenaturelogisticssupport,suppliesandservicessustainmentandintelligencesupporttothemilitaryandnationalsecurityforcesofUkraine,andfor
replacementofanyweaponsordefensivearticlesprovidedtotheGovernmentofUkrainefromtheinventoryoftheUnitedStates:Providedfurther,ThattheSecretaryofDefenseshall,notlessthan15dayspriortoobligatingfundsprovidedunderthisheading,notifythecongressionaldefensecommitteesinwritingofthedetailsofanysuchobligation:Providedfurther,ThattheUnitedStatesmayacceptequipmentprocuredusingfundsprovidedunderthisheadinginthisorpriorActsthatwastransferredto
thesecurityforcesofUkraineandreturnedbysuchforcestotheUnitedStates:Providedfurther,ThatequipmentprocuredusingfundsprovidedunderthisheadinginthisorpriorActs,andnotyettransferredtothemilitaryorNationalSecurityForcesofUkraineorreturnedbysuchforcestotheUnitedStates,maybetreatedasstocksoftheDepartmentofDefenseuponwrittennotificationtothecongressionaldefensecommittees:Providedfurther,Thatamountsmadeavailablebythissectionare
designatedbytheCongressforOverseasContingencyOperations/GlobalWaronTerrorismpursuanttosection251(b)(2)(A)(ii)oftheBalancedBudgetandEmergencyDeficitControlActof1985.

[]

WindowonEurasia
Wednesday,December16,2015

TwoOutrageousRussianChargesPointtoNewDangersAheadforUkraine

windowoneurasia2.blogspot.com/2015/12/two-outrageous-russian-charges-point-to.html

PaulGoble

Staunton,December16TwonewandcompletelyoutrageousRussianchargesthattheCrimeanTatarsareunderthecontrolofTurkishintelligenceandthattheUkrainianLibraryinMoscowwasinvolvedinthepreparationofterroristactionsintheRussiancapitalpointtoanewroundofincreaseddangersforUkraine.

SincetheshootingdownoftheRussianplanethatviolatedTurkishairspace,theoccupationauthoritiesinCrimeahavefrequentlysuggestedthattheCrimeanTatarsareundertheinfluenceofTurkishintelligenceservices,acharge,MustafaDzhemilyev,theleaderofthatnation,saysincreasesthethreatagainstit(qha.com.ua/ru/politika/aksenov-zayavlyaet-chto-krimskie-tatari-pod-vliyaniem-turetskoi-razvedki/152504/).

SpeakinginKyivyesterday,DzhemilyevsaidthatgiventhattheCrimeanTatarsarecloseandrelatedtotheTurkishpeople,thenthewildanti-TurkishbacchanalialedbyPutinconcernsthemaswell.Andtragically,itisalreadyhavinganimpactinCrimeanotonlyatthelevelofdeclarationsbutalsoofofficialactions.

InCrimea,hecontinued,dozensoffamiliesofTurks,includingthoseinmixedmarriageswithCrimeanTatars,arebeingsubjectedtodeportation,andallbusinessmenwhohavetieswithTurkishfirmsareatthelevelofcollapse.AndtheheadoftheoccupationsaysthatCrimeanTatarsarecooperatingwiththeintelligenceserviceofacountryhostiletoRussia.

Allthispropagandahysteria,Dzhemilyevsaid,verymuchrecallsthosemethodswithwhichtheSovietauthoritiesatonetimeattemptedtojustifythedeportationandgenocideoftheCrimeanTatarpeople.

AsecondoutrageousRussianclaimconcernstheMoscowLibraryofUkrainianLiterature.Uptonow,theMoscowmediahavesuggestedthattheraidsagainstitandthechargesagainstitsdirector,NatalyaSharina,wereaboutthesupposedpresenceofanti-Russianmaterials.

Buttoday,inadangerousshift,theNashaversiyaportalsaysthattherealreasonthatMoscowpoliceraidedthecenteristhattheysuspectedthatitwasthebasefortheorganizationofterroristattacksintheRussiancapitalorelsewhereintheRussianFederation(versia.ru/kak-ukrainskie-yekstremisty-svili-gnezdo-v-centre-moskvy).


Specifically,itsaidthatashasbecomeknowntothecorrespondentofNashaVersia,theinvestigationisaboveallinterestedinthedetailsaboutthepossiblepreparationbyguestsoftheUkrainianlibraryofterroristactsinMoscow.Information,testifyingtothepreparationofterroristactshasalreadybeenobtainedbylawenforcementpersonnel.

Intodaysoverheatedenvironment,suchchargesbothagainsttheCrimeanTatarsandagainsttheUkrainiansmoregenerallysuggestthatatleastsomeintheRussiancapitalarelayingthegroundworkforanewdemonizationofUkraineinpreparationforpossibleoffensivemovesagainstitspeopleandstateinthenearfuture.

----------Forwardedmessage----------
From:WalterDerzko<wderzko@pathcom.com>
Date:Wed,Dec16,2015at7:03PM
Subject:UKFOREIGNSECRETARYPhilipHammondtodayadmittedministershaveNOIDEAwhatRussiaisuptoinSyria.
To:1WalterZarycky<waz2102@caa.columbia.edu>,1WolodymyrZarycky<wzarcusur@gmail.com>,wderzko@pathcom.com

HammondadmitshehasNOIDEAwhatRussiaisuptoinSyria&accusesPutinofaidingISIS[ED:INTERESTINGCONTRASTWITHSECKERRY]

FOREIGNSECRETARYPhilipHammondtodayadmittedministershaveNOIDEAwhatRussiaisuptoinSyria.

Thetruthiswesimplydon'tknowwhattheRussianstrategyis.

MrHammondwasaskedbyformerLabourministerStephenTwiggwhetheritwas"clear"Russia'spriorityistoprotecttheregimeofSyriandictatorBasharal-Assad,acloseallyofKremlinleaderVladimirPutin.

ButtheForeignSecretaryconfessedhehadlittleideawhatRussia'sforeignpolicyaimsare.

Hesaid:"Ilongsincegaveupusingtheword'clear'todescribeanythingaboutRussianpolicybecauseit'sanythingbutclear-it'salwaysopaque.

"Thetruthiswesimplydon'tknowwhattheRussianstrategyis.Wedon'tknowwhattheirobjectivesareandactuallymyassessmentismostpeopleintheRussiansystemdon'tknow.

"PerhapsMrPutinhasinhisheadanideaaboutwhattheendgameishere.

"WhatIdoknowisthatsome75percentofRussianairstrikesarebeingconductedagainstpeoplewebelievehavetobepartofthesolutiontotheSyrianproblemandnotagainstDaesh,whichwe'reveryclearistheenemy."

ThebattleagainstISISmilitants(alsoabbreviatedasDaesh,ISIL,ISandIslamicState)continuesintheMiddleEast.

MrHammondhadearliertoldMPsthefactamajorityofRussianairstrikesweretargetedatSyriaoppositionforceswashelpingISISretaincontrolofitsstrongholds,includingitsself-declaredcapitalRaqqa.

Hesaid:""Withourcoalitionpartners,includingtheUnitedStates,wewillcontinuetourgetheRussiansateveryopportunitytofocustheirfiresolelyonDaesh.

"ItisunacceptablethatRussianactionisweakeningtheoppositionandthusgivingadvantagetotheveryDaeshforcesthattheyclaimtobeengagedagainst."

----------Forwardedmessage----------
From:IhorKozak<ihor.kozak.canada@gmail.com>
Date:Wed,Dec16,2015at12:02PM
Subject:FW:DianeFrancis/interviewwihtGeneralClark
To:ihor.kozak.canada@gmail.com

IputDianeFrancisintouchwithGeneralWesleyClarkhereisherlatest
piece,stemmingfromthatinterview--freshfromtheprint,whileKerryis
stillinMoscowwithPutin:

http://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/new-atlanticist/ukraine-is-a-work-in-pr
ogress-by-putin-says-general-wesley-clark

Plsshareonsocialmedia.Thanks

-----OriginalMessage-----
From:DianeFrancis
Sent:Wednesday,December16,201511:08AM
To:IhorKozakWesleyClark
Subject:ClarkpieceonlineAtlantic

TweetitoutwhileKerry'sstillwithPutinBestthanksDiane

SentfrommyiPhone

DECEMBER16,2015

"UkraineisaworkinprogressbyPutin,"SaysGeneralWesleyClark
BYDIANEFRANCIS

RetiredUSArmygeneralWesleyClarkspeaksonapanelduringtheClintonGlobalInitiative'sannualmeetinginNewYork,September29,2015.Credit:REUTERS/LucasJackson

RetiredUSArmyGeneralWesleyClark,formerNATOSupremeAlliedCommander,Europe,hascampaignedsince2014toconvinceWesterngovernmentstoprovidelethalaidtoUkrainetofendoffRussia'soccupationof9percentofitsterritory.

Inawide-ranginginterview,hetalkedaboutwhythishasn'thappenedandaboutRussianPresidentVladimirPutin'swaragainstUkraineandEurope,hisSyrianstrategy,andhisoverallgameplan.
"WeshouldhavegivendefensivelethalweaponstoUkraine,"hesaid."Ifwe'dgiventhemdefensiveweapons,manylivescouldhavebeensaved.Therearemajorhumanconsequenceshere."

Overallcasualtiesnowmountto9,100upfrom6,200inspring2015accordingtoaUnitedNationsreportissuedDecember9.Russiadeniesdirectmilitaryinvolvementbutnoonebelievesthat.Moscowclaimsseparatistsareincharge,butNATO,Clark,andtheUNhaveevidencetothecontrary.Russia'sinvolvementisdirectandmurderous.

OnDecember11,UNAmbassadorSamanthaPower,ActingChairoftheUNSecurityCouncil,bluntlystated:"Russiacontinuestoarm,train,support,andfightalongsideseparatistsineasternUkraine."

Asmattersstand,Clarksaid,RussiacouldinvadeUkrainewithafewbrigades,butitwon'tfortworeasons.ThecurrentstrategyofharassmentanddestabilizationservesPutin'soverallpurpose,and,second,bynotovertlyusingmilitarytroopsPutinbelieveshecangettheEuropeanstoeasesanctions.

"UkraineisaworkinprogressbyPutin.HehasmultiplechannelstoattackUkraine,economically,politically,diplomatically,militarily,"hesaid."Hewantstogetsanctionslifted,sohe'snotdeepeninghis[overt]militaryactivitiesintoUkraine.Buteverydaythereareshootingincidents."

"HehasabiggameplanandthatistobreakuptheEuropeanUnion,aweakenedNATO,restoreRussia'sdefensivearea[WarsawPact]andcontrolUkraineandBelarus,"hesaid."He'sdoingthisthroughcovertops,sabotageinUkraine,militaryaggression,theseparatistmovements,economics,diplomacy,buyingpeopleintheEU,andputtingFSBmoneytowardenvironmentalgroupstoprotestagainstfrackingtokeepEuropedependentonRussianoilandgas."

Forinstance,Putinfriend,formerGermanChancellorGerhardSchroeder,hasgottenwealthyworkingforGazprom,theRussianstategascompany.He'snotalone.ManyotherprominentpoliticiansinGermanyandthroughoutEuropehavesimilarlybeenco-opted."Russiausesmoneytobuyinfluence,"hesaid."RussianbusinessdealsinvolveI'lldothisandyoudothat.Putinisworkingawebofinfluence."

Clearly,Europehasbeencompromised.EuropehadtobedraggedintosanctionsandGermanyandFrancebungledthingsbylargelyacceptingRussia'stermsconcerningaceasefireagreement,thenallowingMoscowtoflouttheagreementwithoutmajorconsequences."TheUnitedStateshasdoneitsbesttoempoweritsalliestogetinvolved,"commentedtheGeneral.

Whyhasn'ttheUnitedStatesgottenmoreinvolved,giventhatPutinwithhisarsenalofnuclearweaponsisperhapsmoredangerousthanISIS?

"OurgovernmentisworriedbutnotsolelyfocusedonEurope,"hesaid."Theadministrationhasmultipleforeignpolicyobjectives.Ithasresponsibilitynotjusttotheoverallstrategy,butalsotoAmericanpublicopinion.Foreignpolicyreflectsdomesticpolitics.ThePresidentdecideditwasimportanttogetIrantosignthedealandheneededPutinforthat."

"ThePresidentknowswhatPutinisallaboutbuthewasrighttogettheIraniandeal,"hesaid.

Putin'spivotintoSyriatohelpSyrianPresidentBasharal-Assadisanothertactic,quiteseparate,tomeethisoverallobjectives.

"Ifthere'sawaytousePutintocontrolAssadfine.ThereisnosolutiontoISISwithoutapoliticalsolution.SunnisfromSaudiArabiaandTurkeymustacceptsomeroleforIran(aShianation).IranhasgottoacceptitcannotcontrolallofSyria,"hesaid.

SunnisandShiasmustunitetostartfightingISIS,hesuggested.

WasUkraineputonapolicybackburnerbecauseofISIS?

"Youmustkeepthesetwothings[SyriaandUkraine]separate,"hesaid."UkrainemusthavetheabilitytodefenditselfandapoliticalprocessmusttakeplacetodestroyISIS.NeitherUkrainenortheUnitedStatescangiveinonthelegalstatusofCrimea,aspartofUkraine.IwashappytoseeVicePresidentJoeBidenrepeatthat.We'vegottosupportUkraine.ButtheadministrationmustworkbothtosupportUkraineandtoleadthecoalitiontodestroyISIS."
ShouldthefactthatTurkey,aNATOmember,shotdownaRussiamilitaryjetwithoutmilitaryretaliation,emboldentheWesttoproperlyarmandencourageUkrainetopushRussiaoutofitsterritory?"TurkeygavemultiplewarningstoRussiaaboutitsjets.ItwasatestbyPutin.HeshovedandwantedtoseehowmuchgumptionTurkeyhad,"saidtheGeneral.HefoundoutthattheTurkswouldstanduptohim.

It'stimefortheWesttodothesame.

DianeFrancisisaSeniorFellowattheAtlanticCouncil'sDinuPatriciuEurasiaCenter,EditoratLargewiththeNationalPostinCanada,aDistinguishedProfessoratRyersonUniversity'sTedRogersSchoolofManagement,andauthoroftenbooks.

---------Forwardedmessage----------
From:WalterDerzko<wderzko@pathcom.com>
Date:Wed,Dec16,2015at9:27AM
Subject:EmergencyOpecmeetingairedasRussiabracesforsub-$30
To:1WalterZarycky<waz2102@caa.columbia.edu>,1WolodymyrZarycky<wzarcusur@gmail.com>,wderzko@pathcom.com

EmergencyOpecmeetingairedasRussiabracesforsub-$30oil

Oilmarketsarebecomingdangerouswithnogrown-upincharge.Sparecapacityiswafer-thin,despitetheglut,andanyupsetcouldtriggeranoilshock

AmbroseEvans-Pritchard8:45PMGMT14Dec2015http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/12050437/Emergency-Opecmeeting-aired-as-Russia-braces-for-sub-30-oil.html

 From: RobertOtto<robertotto25@gmail.com>
Senttime: 12/07/201511:49:00AM
To: DavidKramer<djkramerwdc@gmail.com>
Subject: WRM:ThePresidentAsPangloss-TheAmericanInterest(youlovethis)

http://www.the-american-interest.com/2015/12/07/the-president-as-pangloss/

ThePresidentAsPangloss
Withpublicapprovalofhisanti-ISISeffortsat33percent,PresidentObamatooktotheairwaveslastnighttobolster
supportforhiscounterterrorismstrategy.Judgingbythereactioninthenationalpress,thespeechfellflat.Weshallsee
whatthepollssay,butitseemssafeatthispointtoruleoutadramaticsurgeinthePresidentssupportasagratefulnation
respondstohisdramaticappeal.ApresidentoncecomparedtoLincolnasanoratorandEisenhowerasastrategistbyhis
adoringsupportersnolongerseemscredibleoreveninterestingontheterrorthreatthatmanyvotersnowthinkisthemost
biggestconcernfacingthenation.

MostofthepublicisnolongerlisteningtoPresidentObamaonthistopicitiswaitingfor2017andthedecisiverepudiation
ofaglobalstrategythatmanyofthePresidentsclosestadvisorsandsenioraidesbelievehasfailed.Onethinksofthe
famousBostonGlobeheadlineaboutaJimmyCarterspeech,addedbyaprinterasaplaceholderthatsomehowsurvivedto
thefirstmorningedition:MoreMushFromtheWimp.Fairlyornot,thatiswhatmoreandmoreAmericanshearwhen
Obamaspeaksaboutterror.

ThepoliticalconsequencesoftheperceivedfailureofObamasnationalsecurityapproacharealreadyondisplay.Secretary
Clintonisrunningagainsttheforeignpolicyofthemansheservedforfouryears.Theneo-isolationistwingofthe
RepublicanPartyhassubsidedintoirrelevance.DonaldTrumpssupportsurgesonawaveofvoterangeratagovernment
andestablishmentmanybelievetobefailingthethresholdtestonnationalsecurity.PresidentObamaslegacybeginstolook
tragictheprimarygoalofhispresidencywastobanishthespecterofAndrewJacksonfromAmericanpolitics.Jacksonian
foreignpolicyandJacksonianpopulismathomearetheforcesObamaseesasembodyingallthathefearsanddislikesin
America.DisappointedinBush,bitterabouttheIraqwar,shockedbytheGreatRecession,Jacksonianismwasonthe
retreatintheAmericaof2008.ObamaandliberalDemocratshopedthatasthenewFDRandtheDemocraticReagan,
ObamawouldgiveJacksonianAmericathecoupdegrace.Thebitterclingerswouldfadeaway.

Thisclearlywontbehappeninganytimesoon.JacksonianAmericahasbeenenergizedratherthaneuthanizedbytheObama
presidencyin2016theRepublicanPartyislookingtorideaJacksonianwaveintotheWhiteHouse,whiletheDemocrats
willdotheirbesttodeflectthatwavebyadaptingtoit.HillaryClintonisgoingbacktoherrootsasaliberalhawkinthe
hopesthatshecanassuageenoughJacksonianconcernsaboutnationalsecuritytorideoutthestorm.

ThePresidentsdefendersatthispointarereducedtoasinglecontention:Forallitsfaultsandflaws,nobetterstrategycan
bedesignedthantheonethePresidenthasadopted.Thisiswhatyousaywhenthereisnothingelsetobesaid.Itisthe
argumentofVoltairesDoctorPangloss:Nomatterhowuglytheworldmayappear,PresidentObamahasadoptedthebest
ofallpossiblestrategiesandso,givenwheretheworldstoodin2009,wenowliveinthebestofallpossibleworlds.As
eachnewdisasterunfoldsacrosstheMiddleEast,thePanglossianchorusrepeatstherefrain:Nobetterstrategyexistsas
badastheconsequencesofthePresidentspoliciesappeartobe,nobetterchoicesexist.Itisoneofthoselittleironiesof
historythatPresidentObamahasnowadoptedMargaretThatchersresponsetohercritics:ThereIsNoAlternative.

Meanwhile,thePresidentresolutelyrefrainsfromacknowledgingthefailuresofconception,execution,andexplicationthat
havesappedtheworldsconfidenceinhisleadership.Hedoesnotspeakaboutlessonslearned,whichleadspeopleto
believethathehasntlearnedany.HedoesnotacknowledgethecorrosiveconsequencesofunforcedPresidentialerrorsthat
havemadetheworldworse(Libya,forexample).HesaysnothingabouttheruinofhisstrategytohealtheMiddleEastby
buildingallianceswithmoderateIslamists.HedoesnotaddresspublicconcernsthathemisjudgedPutinsRussia.Hedoes
notattempttorepairthedamagethatill-chosenremarks(ISISasthejuniorvarsity)havedonetopublicconfidenceinhis
judgment.Hespeaksabouttheevolutionoftheterrorthreatwithoutacknowledginghisearlierpronouncementsthatterror
wasdevolvingandbecominglessdangerous.

ThePresidentandhisdefendersdonotseemtounderstandthatthetrackrecordofmisstepsundercutsthePanglossian
defense.Doesthebestofallpossibleforeignpolicystrategiesbythebestofallpossibleleadersreallyinvolveapointless
invasionofLibyathatturnsthecountryintoahavenforISIS?DoesitreallyinvolvehaplessredlinekerflufflesinSyria?
WastherereallynothingbetteranyonecouldhavedoneinAfghanistan?IsthedisasterinSyrianowreallysomethingthatno
AmericanPresidentcouldhavedoneanythingtopreventortomitigate?Isthegrowingchorusofex-officialsfromhisown
staffcompletelymisguidedwhensomanyofthempointtoerrorsandomissionsthathavecosttheUnitedStatesdearlyon
hiswatch?Isthisreallythebestofallpossibleforeignpolicytrackrecordsinthebestofallpossibleworlds?

ThePresidentremainsweddedtotheideathathecanenhancehisprestigebyignoringhisfailures.Andsohisspeechesfall
flat.Helecturesthepublic,stilldehautenbas,stillcondescendingtothefearsofmanyAmericans,stillwarningthem
againstindulgingtheirbaseJacksonianinstincts,stillcallingthemtojoinhimonthehigherplaneofamoresophisticated
understandingofworldaffairs.Atthispoint,themorethePresidentspeaks,themorehefeedsthefearsoftheAmerican
people.Thecontrastbetweenhissmugself-assuranceandwhattosomanyAmericanslookslikeamassivecollapseinboth
ourforeignandourcounter-terrorpoliciesfrightensandangerspeopleandturbochargesJacksonianreaction.

ThePresidentdoesntjustneedabetterstrategyforcopingwithAmericasenemiesintheMiddleEastandathome.He
needsabetterstrategyfordescribinganddefendinghispoliciestotheAmericanpeople.Whenprimetimepresidential
speechesonmattersofthehighestimportanceleavenopositiveimprintonthepublicmind,itisasignthatthepublicis
tuningapresidentoutandwritinghimoff.
 From: RobertOtto<robertotto25@gmail.com>
Senttime: 12/14/201501:09:11PM
To: JuliaWorth<juliagworth@gmail.com>
Subject: JohnKerrysMiddleEastMission-TheNewYorker

http://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2015/12/21/negotiating-the-whirlwind?intcid=mod-most-popular

NegotiatingtheWhirlwind

Hisoptimismissuchthathethinks,Wewillconfrontthis!
oneofficialsaidofKerrysattitude.Theresgottobea
solution.IllustrationbyBarryBlitt

JohnKerry,thesixty-eighthSecretaryofStateoftheUnitedStates,wasborntoatemperamentofwintryrectitude.Heis
descendedfromtheWinthrops,whohelpedfoundtheMassachusettsBayColony,andtheForbeses,aBrahminclanthat
madeitsmoneyinrailwaysandinexportingtea,silver,andopiumtoChina.Hisfatherwasadiplomat.KerryattendedSt.
PaulsandYale(wherehewasinSkullandBones)and,asanavalofficerinVietnam,earnedthreePurpleHearts,theBronze
Star,andtheSilverStar.HedatedJacquelineKennedyshalf-sister,sailedwithJ.F.K.,andmarriedtwiceintosubstantial
fortunes.Despitethecodesofhisclass,however,Kerrywasneverentirelysubtleabouthisambitions.Whenhewasinprep
school,hisclassmatesusedtoplayHailtotheChieftohimonthekazoo.

In2004,whenKerrylostthePresidentialracetoGeorgeW.Bush,whoiswidelyconsideredtheworstPresidentofthe
modernera,herefusedtochallengetheresults,despitehissuspicionthatincertainstates,particularlyOhio,wherethe
ElectoralCollegecounthinged,proxiesforBushhadriggedmanyvotingmachines.Buthecouldnotsufferthedefeatin
completesilence.HewasoutragedthatBush,whohadwonastatesideberthintheTexasAirNationalGuardduringthe
VietnamWar,usedcampaignsurrogates,theso-calledSwiftBoatVeteransforTruth,toslimehismilitaryrecord.Hewas
furious,too,atRobertShrum,hischiefstrategist,andothercampaignadviserswhohadrestrainedhimfromhittingback.

Foralongperiod,after2004,everytimeheevenhalffellasleepallhesawwasvotingmachinesinthestateofOhio,Mike
Barnicle,aclosefriendofKerrysandaformercolumnistfortheBostonGlobe,toldme.Thissummer,Barniclespenttime
withKerryonNantucket,whereKerryandhiswife,TeresaHeinz,haveahouseonthewaterandaseventy-six-foot,seven-
million-dollarsailboatcalledIsabel.Weweresittinginthebow,Barniclerecalled,andweweretalkingaboutabunchof
differentthingsaboutIran,aboutwhatthePresidentofIranwaslikeandIsaid,OtherthannotbeingPresident,thisis
prettygood.Therewasasecurityboatsailingofftothesideofus.Thenhesaid,Yeah,yeah,IrealizehowbadlyShrum
screwedme.
Afewweeksago,betweenKerrystripstoEuropeandtheMiddleEast,IhaddinnerwithKerryandHeinzattheirhousein
Georgetown,atwenty-three-roommansiondecoratedwithEarlyAmericanportraits,Dutchstill-lifes,andanamiableyellow
LabradorretrievernamedBen.(TheLabhastheTwitterhandle@DiploMutt.)IaskedKerryhowlonghecarriedarounda
senseofangerandresentment.

Ididntcarryit,heinsisted.Ididnt.Ididnt.MywifewasmadatmethatIdidntcarryitlonger.

Fromacrossthetable,TeresaHeinzsaid,Imstillcarryingit.

TheSecretaryofStatelookedupfromhishalibut.Anillwindofpanicswepttheoblongplainofhisface.Fromthethick
thatchofgrayhairtotheimprobablylongandthrustingchin,Kerrysvisageisimmenseand,initsimplacableresting
expression,resemblesoneofthemonolithicheadsthatrisefromtheloamofEasterIsland.

Well,Imnot,Kerrysaid.

Hisgazeturnedtohiswife,wordlesslyimploringhertokeepquiet.Heinzisseventy-seven,fiveyearsolderthanher
husband,and,in2013,shesufferedaseizurethatshehasattributedtoanearlierconcussionthatwasnotproperlytreated
atall.Itsnoteasyforhertogetaround,andsheappearsinfrequentlyatpublicevents,butshespokeclearlyandardently
throughouttheevening,muchasshehadduringthe2004campaign.

Shewasnotquitedone.Iknewfromlookingatthe...

KerryusesmanytermsofendearmentforhiswifenowhecalledherbythetelegraphicT.

T,letsnotgo...hesaidgently.

Asshetriedtospeakagain,heshutitdown.

T,T,werenot...Ididntwanttospendtimethere,hesaid.Ijustconsciouslydidnotspendtimethere,andImoved
on,andImovedonasrapidlyas...Itsover.Itsbehindme....Icouldhavedonesomethingsalittlebitdifferently.We
didnt.ButImnotgoingtofeelregrettherestofmylife.

Inearly2013,aftertwenty-eightyearsintheSenate,KerrysucceededHillaryClintonasSecretaryofState.Heisseventy-
two,andthisisalmostsurelyhislasthigh-rankingjobasapublicofficial.Asheputittome,Ihavefourteenmonthsleft
ontheclock.HehasalreadymadehishistoricalmarkbyactingastheObamaAdministrationschiefnegotiatorinthe
nucleartalkswithIran.Thatdeal,whichisdesignedtopreventIranfrombuildinganatomicweaponandsparkinganuclear
armsracethroughouttheMiddleEast,wassignedtwomonthsago.Butitwasneveraforegoneconclusion.Thistimelast
year,theWhiteHousewasrunningPlanBmeetingsaboutwhatstepstotakedeepersanctions,potentialmilitarystrikes
ifthetalksfailed.

HisadmirersandhiscriticsinthediplomaticworlddescribeKerryinsimilarterms:tirelesslyoptimistic,dogged,rhetorically
undisciplined,undauntedbyrisk,convincedthatifhecanjustgettherelevantpartiesintotheroomhecanmakeadeal.
JohnKerrypickshisbattles,andheinvestsbodyandsoulintacklingconflictswherethehumanconsequencesarevery
high,SamanthaPower,theUnitedStatesAmbassadortotheUnitedNations,toldme.Whenheengages,heisallin.

Kerryhasshownrepeatedlythathewilluseanyleverasameansofdiplomaticpersuasionincludinghisdefeatin2004.

InJuly,2014,AfghanistanfacedapotentialcivilwarasthecandidatestosucceedHamidKarzaiasPresidentAbdullah
Abdullah,aphysicianandtheformerforeignminister,andAshrafGhani,theformerchancellorofKabulUniversity
chargedeachotherwithtryingtostealtheelection.Afewyearsearlier,Kerry,servingasObamasemissarywhilestillinthe
Senate,hadtalkedKarzaidownfromrecklessdecisionsbyrecallinghisownpoliticalupheavalsnowheneededtodo
somethingsimilar.

OnJuly12th,AbdullahmetwithKerry,inKabul,attheAmericanAmbassadorsresidence.Abdullahssupportersinthe
NorthernAllianceandamongvariouswarlordsGhanihadhisownwarlordconstituencydidnotwanthimtobackdown.
ItwaslefttoKerrytoarguethat,despitewhatwasdelicatelydescribedaselectoralimproprieties,confrontationhadtobe
avoided.

IranforPresidentandIlostandnowImSecretaryofStateofthemostpowerfulcountryintheworld,Kerrytold
Abdullahandhisentourage,accordingtoanaidescontemporaneousnotes.Iknowyouranger.Iknowyourfrustration.
HepressedAbdullahnottowalkawayfrompolitics,lestthecountrytumbleintochaosandthenextgenerationloseits
chance.

TheUnitedNationscarriedoutanauditoftheelectionanddeterminedthatalthoughtherehadbeenfraudonbothsides,
Ghanihadwon.Abdullahwasstillnotpreparedtoyield.OnSeptember17th,KerrycalledAbdullahfromhisofficeatthe
StateDepartmenttopersuadehimtoconcedeandaccepttheface-savingpositionofchiefexecutiveofficerinGhanis
government.

Buytheprint

HeaskedAbdullahtoputhisphoneonspeakersothathisaidescouldhear.AfterflatteringAbdullahforhisstrengthand
importanceinthecountry,Kerrysaid,Iwillsharewithyouaverypersonalexperience:WhenIranforPresidentofthe
UnitedStates,in2004,againstGeorgeBush,intheend,onElectionDay,wehadproblemsinthestateofOhioonhowthe
votesweretakingplace.IevenwenttocourtinAmericatokeeppollingplacesopentomakesuremypeoplecouldvote.I
knewthateveninmycountry,theUnitedStates,wherewehadhundredsofyearsofpracticingdemocracy,westillhad
problemscarryingoutthatelection.Thenextafternoon,Ihadameetingwithmypeople,andItoldthemthatIdidnotthink
itappropriateofmetotakethecountrythroughthreeorfourmonthsofnotknowingwhothePresidentwas.Sothat
afternooninBostonIconcededtothePresidentandtalkedabouttheneedtobringthecountrytogether....Oneofthe
mainlessonsfromthisisthereisafuture.Thereisatomorrow.

Severaldayslater,AbdullahAbdullahconcededandjoinedtheAfghangovernment.

KerryandHeinzhavenoshortageofresidencesinadditiontothehousesinGeorgetownandonNantucket,theyliveinan
eighteenth-centuryfive-storypileonLouisburgSquare,inBeaconHillinafamilycompoundonNaushon,aprivateisland
offCapeCodinafifteenth-centuryEnglishfarmhousethatwasreassembledonthebankofBigWoodRiver,inSunValley
andonaninety-acrefarmcalledRosemont,outsidePittsburgh,whereHeinzspenttimewithherfirsthusband,H.John
HeinzIII,theRepublicansenatorandcondimentsscion,whodiedin1991.WhenKerryranforPresident,herfortunewas
estimatedataroundabilliondollars.KerryandHeinzkeeptheirfinancialassetsseparate,but,hadKerrywonin2004,they
would,together,havebeenthewealthiestfamilyevertooccupytheWhiteHouse.

AsSecretaryofState,however,Kerryspendsmuchofhislifeonboardaworse-for-weargovernmentjet,aBoeing757.
BothKerryandClintonhaveoftenhadthehumblingexperienceoftheplanebreakingdown:ablowntire,aleakinan
auxiliaryfueltank,electronicproblems.

Kerryissix-fourandwalkswithapainedrollinhisgait.Hehashadbothhipsreplacedhisice-hockeydaysatYaletooka
tollandheisstillrecoveringfromanaccidentlastMay,inwhichhesteeredhisracingbikeintoacurb,crashedtothe
road,andshatteredhisrightfemur.Hetravelsinacabininthefrontoftheplane,whereacouchunfoldsintoabed,
allowinghimtostretchouttoreadbriefingpapersandtomakecallsonasecuretelephonelinetoforeignleadersandtothe
WhiteHouse.Hedoesntsleepmuch,butsometimeshebringsalonganylon-stringguitarandrelaxesbyplayingBeatles
songs,Spanishlaments,andshowtunes.(ArgentinawillbedelightedtohearthatEvitaisafavorite.)Whenhesononeof
hisdiplomaticdeathmarchesthroughsomerarelyvisitedregionrecently,itwasfiveCentralAsiannationsintwodays
helikestoboneupwithacrashcourse.

IusuallyGoogleacountry,findaninterestingarticleortwo,readaboutit,getsomehistory,hetoldme.Iwanttoknow
whereIam.Iwanttoknowwhatmadethisplacelikeitis.WhatisitaboutSamarkandthatsspecial?

InlateOctober,Ijoinedhimononeofthedeathmarches,aThursday-to-SundaytripfromAndrewsAirForceBase,
outsideD.C.,toBerlin,Vienna,Amman,andRiyadh.Hisjobistogivestrategicadvice,helpexecuteWhiteHousepolicy,
tampdowncrises,andreachagreementstostrokeallies,sendclearsignalstopowersconsideredmoreproblematic,like
Russia,Turkey,SaudiArabia,andChinaandtoforgepotentialrelationshipswitholdenemieslikeIran.

TheObamaAdministration,workinginthepoliticalsafehavenofasecondterm,haswontworecent,ifdivisive,victories:
thedealwithIranandtheopeningtoCuba.Italsohasabucketlist:reachingaceasefireandpoliticalsettlementinSyria
steppingupaninternationallycordinatedfightagainstISISandadvancingthefightagainstclimatechange.Thistripwas
designedmainlytogetwildlydisparatepartiesfromtheWest,Russia,andtheMiddleEasttobeginnegotiationsonSyria.In
particular,thetrickwastogetIranintheroomwithoutlosingitsswornenemies,theSunninationsoftheGulf.

Kerryspersistenceandself-assurance,coupledwithexcruciatingeconomicsanctions,iswhathelpedhimsucceedwiththe
Iranians.Itsalsowhatledtoninemonthsoffruitless,chaotic,and,arguably,corrosivenegotiationsthatbrokedownlast
yearbetweentheIsraelisandthePalestiniansnegotiationsthatalmostnoone,noteventhePresident,believedwouldlead
toabreakthrough.Kerryarguedthatthehellboundtrajectoryofeventswasheadingtowardcalamity,andhehadtotryhis
criticssaidthattheconditionswerenotripe,andthattheeffortamountedtoadiplomaticvanityproject.KerrysMiddle
EastadventurewaspreciselythekindofinitiativethatHillaryClinton,whowasintentonrunningforPresident,andwhois,
bynature,moreriskaverse,wasdisinclinedtotakeupasSecretaryofState.

ThePresidenthasadmiredKerrysenergyandsenseofcommitmentsincetheyworkedtogetherontheSenateForeign
RelationsCommittee,although,anumberofsourcestoldme,heoccasionallyribsKerryforhismoreheadlongefforts.And
yetthetwohavemarkedlydifferenttemperamentsandviewsofwhattheUnitedStatesshouldattempttoachieve,
particularlyintheMiddleEast.ObamaseestheregioninthethroesofhistoricalturmoilSunniversusShia,civilwarin
Syria,threatstonationalboundariesdrawnbyFranceandGreatBritainacenturyago,threatstothestabilityofLebanon,
Jordan,evenSaudiArabia.Havingseenoneinterventionafteranotherfail,heisdeterminedtoactwithrestraint.Kerry,on
theotherhand,seesnohistoricaltrendsthatcandefeatus,PhilipGordon,aveteranNationalSecurityCouncilofficialand
ObamasprincipaladviserontheMiddleEastfrom2013tothespringof2015,toldme.Hisoptimismissuchthathe
thinks,Wewillconfrontthis!Wewilldealwithit!Theresgottobeasolution.Wejustneedtofinditandleadpeople
there.Gordondoesnotsaythiswithadmiration.

WelandedatamilitaryairportinBerlin.KerrygotintoanEmbassycarandheadedtoameetingwiththeIsraeliPrime
Minister,BenjaminNetanyahu,whohappenedtobeinGermanytoseeChancellorAngelaMerkel.Inrecentweeks,there
hadbeenanalarminguptickinstreetviolenceinJerusalemandtheWestBankstabbings,shootings,rockthrowing,face-
offswithtroopsandatleastsomeofitwasduetorumorsthattheIsraeliswantedtoexertmorecontrolovertheTemple
Mount,intheOldCity,orwhatArabscalltheHaramal-Sharif,theNobleSanctuary.SomeIsraelisonthereligiousright
wanttobuildaThirdTempletheresomeArabsclaim,wrongly,thatthesite,nowdominatedbytheAlAqsaMosque,never
hadanyJewishhistoricalimportance.

KerrymetwithNetanyahuwiththemodestgoalofdiallingbacktherhetoricabouttheTempleMountonbothsides,getting
theIsraelistomakeitclearthatthecomplexstatusquowasnotgoingtochange.ButNetanyahuhadjustinfuriatedhimby
givingaspeechsuggestingthatthegrandmuftiofJerusaleminthethirtieswastheideologicalinspirationfortheFinal
Solution.HitlerdidntwanttoexterminatetheJewsatthetime,NetanyahutoldtheWorldZionistCongress,inlate
October.HewantedtoexpeltheJews.NetanyahusaidthemuftididntwantGermanJewstocometoPalestine,so,
instead,headvisedHitlertoburnthem.Themuftiwas,infact,anti-Semiticandpro-Nazi,butthenotionthathewasthe
ideologistoftheHolocaustwaspreposterous.
 Lately,IfeelliketheonlytimeIhavetomyselfiswhenIm
havingsexwithBrian.Buytheprint

AlthoughNetanyahuclarifiedhiscommentsonthemuftibeforearrivinginBerlin,Kerryscircledidnotseethe
performanceasanaberration.MostoftheministersinNetanyahuscabinetareontherecordopposingatwo-statesolution.
AmericanofficialsspeakofNetanyahuasmyopic,entitled,untrustworthy,routinelydisrespectfultowardthePresident,and
focussedsolelyonshort-termpoliticaltacticstokeephisright-wingconstituencyinline.Netanyahuseemsnottocareifhe
insultstheAdministration.RonDermer,hisambassadortotheU.S.,secretlyarrangedwithJohnBoehnerforNetanyahuto
speakbeforeCongresswithoutalertingtheWhiteHouseDannyDanon,hisenvoytotheU.N.,blamedObamaslackof
leadershipforTurkishandIranianaggressionandRanBaratz,whomNetanyahuappointedlastmonthashismediachief,
wroteonhisFacebookpagethatthePresidentwasanti-SemiticandthatKerryhadthementalabilitiesofatwelve-year-old.

KerrysometimesspeaksvaguelyoftryingyetagaintoforgeanIsraeli-PalestiniansettlementThereareworsethingsthan
gettingcaughttryingbuthislastattemptlefthimbadlydisillusioned.Hispubliccommentsnowmakeitclearthatonlyif
IsraelandthePalestinianscomeknockingwillhegetinvolvedinanegotiation.In2014,asKerryshuttledfromcapitalto
capital,oneIsraelicabinetministertoldme,Weareonlydoingthisforyou!MosheYaalon,Netanyahusdefenseminister,
wasquotedintheIsraelipresssaying,TheonlythingthatcansaveusisforJohnKerrytowinaNobelPrizeandleave
usinpeace.Kerry,Yaalonsaid,turnedupheredeterminedandactingoutofmisplacedobsessionandmessianicfervor.

TherelationshipfurthersouredwhenNetanyahubroughthiscampaignagainsttheIrannucleardealtotheflooroftheU.S.
Congress.ThefrustrationwiththeIsraelisonalotofissueshasbeensky-high,oneseniorU.S.officialtoldme,
characterizingthemoodatboththeWhiteHouseandtheStateDepartment.Americanofficialsarefrustratedinvarious
wayswiththePalestiniansaswell,but,astheofficialsaid,theydonthaveanypowerinthisdynamic.TheIsraelishaveall
thecards.

Asadiplomat,Kerryisduty-boundtodescriberawrealityinupholsteredplatitudes.Andso,afterhislongsessioninBerlin
withNetanyahu,hesaid,inavoicethathadbeenrenderedascratchywhisperbytoomanyhoursoftalking,thatthe
meetinglefthimcautiouslyencouraged.Hehopedtoresolveage-olddifferencesinafrozenconflict.Hewantedthe
partiestopullbackfromtheprecipiceandgodownaroadthattakespeoplesomewhere.Andsoon.

StateDepartmentaidessaidthatsourcesofKerrysexasperationwithNetanyahurangefromtheinjusticeofsettlement
buildingintheWestBanktothewayheemploysYitzhakMolcho,hislawyerandconfidant,tostifleeventhemost
inconsequentialnegotiation.KerrysspecialenvoyFrankLowensteintoldmethatKerrywillplaythroughthewhistle,and
persistwiththeIsraelisandthePalestiniansuntiltheendofhistimeinoffice,butheadded,Thewindowforatwo-state
solutionisclosing,thoughnoneofuswhoveworkedonitwillregretthatwetriedtosaveit.

KerrybelievesthatIsrael,alongwiththeoccupiedterritories,isheadedtowardbecomingaunitarystatethatisan
impossibleentitytomanage.Heisparticularlyconcerned,hesaid,thatthePalestinianAuthoritycouldcollapsethat,inthe
event,theP.A.sthirtythousandsecurityofficerswouldscatterandthatchaosandincreasinglyviolentclasheswithIsrael
wouldfollow.

IunderstandthepassionsthatarebehindallofthisIgetit,Kerrytoldme.Ifitwereeasy,itwouldhavebeendonea
longtimeago.Ihappentobelievethereisawayforward.Theresasolution.ItwouldbegoodforIsraelitdbegreatfor
thePalestiniansitdbegreatfortheregion.Peoplewouldmakesomuchmoney.Theredbesomanyjobscreated.There
couldbepeace.Andyouwouldbestrongerforit.BecausenobodythatIknoworhavemetintheWestBankisanxiousto
havejihadiscomein.

Thealternativeisyousitthereandthingsjustgetworse,Kerrywenton.TherewillbemoreHezbollah.Therewillbe
morerockets.Andtheyllallbepointedinonedirection.Andtherewillbemorepeopleontheborder.Andwhathappens
then?Youregoingtobeonebigfortress?Imean,thatsnotawaytolive.Itseemstomeitisfarmoreintelligentandfar
morestrategicwhichisanimportantwordheretohaveatheoryofhowyouaregoingtopreservetheJewishstateand
beademocracyandabeacontotheworldthateverybodyenvisionedwhenIsraelwascreated.

IaskedhimifhecouldimagineanendtotheStateofIsrael.

No,Idontbelievethatsgoingtohappen,hesaid.Itsjust,Whatisitgoingtobelike,isthequestion.Willitbea
democracy?WillitbeaJewishstate?Orwillitbeaunitarystatewithtwosystems,orsomedraconiantreatmentof
Palestinians,becausetoletthemvotewouldbetodilutetheJewishstate?Idontknow.Ihavenoanswertothat.Butthe
problemis,neitherdothey.Neitherdothepeoplewhoaresupposedtobeprovidinganswerstothis.Itisnotananswerto
simplycontinuetobuildintheWestBankandtodestroythehomesoftheotherfolksyouretryingtomakepeacewithand
pretendthatthatsasolution.

Intheevening,KerryflewfromBerlintoVienna,where,inmeetingswithhisRussian,Turkish,andSaudicounterparts,the
focuswouldturntoSyria.SomeofthereportersontheStateDepartmentbeatrecallwithnostalgiaatimewhenColin
PowellandCondoleezzaRiceregularlycametothebackoftheplanetobriefthem,oftenontherecord.Kerryisproneto
senatorialover-talkandtheoccasionalgafferecently,hehadtowalkbackaninfelicitousstatementthattherewasa
rationaletothemurdersoftheCharlieHebdostaff,asopposedtothemorerecentattacksinParis.WhiteHouseofficials
havemadeitclearthathisboutsofverbalindisciplineareunwelcome,andhistripstothebackoftheplaneareless
frequent.Recently,attheSabanForum,aMiddleEastconferenceinWashington,D.C.,MartinIndyk,Kerrysformeraide,
interviewedhimonstageandbeganbysaying,withasmile,thathewouldbetheonlyoneaskingquestions,becauseKerrys
stafferswereworriedaboutyouranswers.

TheStateDepartmentbeatistrying.Thereportersaresardinedintothebackoftheplaneforendlessflightsand,upon
arrival,spendhourswaitinginhotelandairportholdingrooms,interruptedbyburstsofstenography.WhileKerrymetwith
SergeiLavrov,hisRussiancounterpart,attheHotelImperial,wepeckedatthebirdseedofthepoolreport,acoupleof
preciselyquotednon-quotes.Thepoolreporterconcludedwiththisplaintivenote:Thatsit.Myrecorderwasrunningfora
totaloftwenty-twoseconds.

Butthetalkswereofrealsignificance.Kerrywastryingtopersuadehisinterlocutors,especiallytheSaudis,ofthewisdom
ofincludingIran,whichhasworkedwiththeRussianstopropupAssad,infuturetalks.ThedevelopmentsinSyriawere
clearenough:atleasttwohundredthousanddead,fourmillionrefugees,millionsmoredisplaced.Theregimebackedby
Iraniantroops,Hezbollahguerrillas,Russianairstrikesonrebeloutposts,andsupportfromtheIraqiShiitemilitiashas
regaineditsfootingandmaintainsaholdoveruptotwo-thirdsofthepopulation.ISISisunderincreasingattackfrom
coalitionairstrikesandKurdishgroundtroops,butithasmovedthefightabroad.
 Yourerighttheshippingisntfree.Theyvefoldedthe
expenseintothecostoftheitem.Buytheprint

ThedispiritingrealityofAmericanforeignpolicyinthetwenty-firstcenturyhasbeenneatlysummarizedinPoliticobyPhilip
Gordon,theformerN.S.C.official:InIraq,theU.S.intervenedandoccupied,andtheresultwasacostlydisaster.In
Libya,theU.S.intervenedanddidnotoccupy,andtheresultwasacostlydisaster.InSyria,theU.S.neitherintervenednor
occupied,andtheresultisacostlydisaster.Someforeign-policyexperts,fromLeonPanetta,theformerC.I.A.director,to
RichardHaass,thepresidentoftheCouncilonForeignRelations,predictthattheconflictsthathaveemergedfromtheArab
uprisingswillleadtoaThirtyYearsWar,aprotracted,regionalbloodlettingreminiscentofthereligiouswarsinCentral
EuropethatbeganwiththefragmentationoftheHolyRomanEmpire,in1618.

TheviolentswirlofuncertaintiesbringsoutthePresidentsnativecaution.ThemostconsequentialpoliticalactofObamas
earlycareerwasabriefappearance,in2002,atanantiwardemonstrationinFederalPlaza,indowntownChicago,wherehe
declaredthattheimpendinginvasionofIraqwasdumbandwouldrequireaU.S.occupationofundeterminedlength,at
undeterminedcost,withundeterminedconsequences.ThatspeechsethimapartfrombothKerryandClinton,who,as
senators,votedtogiveBushtherighttouseforceinIraq,anditsettheideologicaltemplateforhisforeignpolicy,notleast
onSyria.ValiNasr,aformerStateDepartmentadvisertoHillaryClintonandRichardHolbrooke,toldme,Obamahasnt
changedhispositionfrom2011.Heisalwaysconcernedthatitsafoolserrand,aslipperyslopetoanotherIraq,pouring
bloodandtreasureintoanotherconflict.

KerryssenioraidesarenothesitanttosaythatbothaschairmanoftheSenateForeignRelationsCommitteeandas
SecretaryofStatehehasdisagreedstronglywithObamaonSyria.Obamaprioritizesavoidinganyentanglementswhereit
isuncertainthatsuchaninterventionwillwork,aStateDepartmentofficialtoldme.Kerry,whoseesthatthecrisishas
threatenedthestabilityofJordan,Lebanon,andotherstatesintheregionandhasprovidedISISwithabase,inRaqqaand
Ramadi,has,theofficialsaid,muchmorefaithinourabilitytoavoidaslipperyslope.

FromthebeginningofthecivilianuprisingsinSyria,in2011,andtheregimesescalatingandbloodyreaction,manyof
Obamasadvisershavearguedforamoreaggressivepolicy:armingandfundingthemoderaterebelsairstrikeson
DamascustakingoutAssadshelicoptersandplanes,whichdropbarrelbombspackedwithshrapnel,explosives,and,
sometimes,chlorinetheestablishmentofsafezonesandano-flyzone.In2012,theC.I.A.director,DavidPetraeusthe
chairmanoftheJointChiefs,GeneralMartinDempseySecretaryofDefenseLeonPanettaSamanthaPower,whowas
thenanational-securityadviserandSecretaryofStateClintonpressedObamatosupportvettedrebelsagainsttheregime.
Kerrywhowasinfluencedbytherelativelysuccessful,ifbelated,interventionsintheBalkans,inthenineties,andalsoby
thecalamitousdecisionnottointerveneinRwandain1994joinedthischoruswhenhereplacedClinton.Butnoonecould
convinceObamathatdeeperinvolvementwouldavoidarepetitionoftheIraqfiasco.

KerrywasacriticalactorinthemosthumblingepisodeoftheSyriandrama.ObamahadwarnedAssadthathewouldbe
crossingaredlineifheusedchemicalweapons,sayingthatsuchanactwouldchangemycalculus.InAugust,2013,a
yearaftertheredlinewarning,Assadsforces,accordingtoWesternintelligenceservicesandanindependentU.N.
commission,firedrocketsarmedwithsarinonGhouta,asuburbofDamascus,killinghundreds.TheU.S.preparedto
attackwithcruisemissiles.InaspeechinsistingthatAssadgiveupallhischemicalarms,Kerryreferredtothelessonsof
theHolocaustandofRwanda.GeneralDempseysaid,Ourfingerwasonthetrigger.ObamawarnedofanAmerican
attack,althoughKerry,followingthePresidentsminimizinglead,allowedthatthestrikewouldbeunbelievablysmall.
Then,withoutconsultingKerry,Obamasteppedback,sayingthathewouldhavetogetcongressionalapprovalbeforean
attackonSyria.Hehadconcludedthatitwasworsetogotowarthantobeseenasweak.

ObamasaidessaythatthedebatesoverSyriaarealwaysoverthecostofanactionversusthecostofinaction.Ben
Rhodes,adeputynational-securityadviser,toldme,ThePresidenthasspentmoretimeonSyriathanonanyotherissuein
theSituationRoom,oftentestingdifferenttheoriesandpropositions.Butnoonehaseverbeenabletoanswerthesecond
andthirdquestions:IfyoudoX,thenwhat?IfyouweretotakemoreassertivemilitaryactionagainstAssad,whathappens
thedayafter,whenAssadisstillinplaceandwehavenotengagedmilitarilyevenmorerobustly?Theresanexpectationto
seeitthrough.ThereisanescalatorylogicthatleadstheU.S.totakeresponsibilityforSyria.Hesopentodifferent
proposals,butwheredotheylead?

WhenIspokewithPresidentObamalastyear,hemadeasimilarpoint.Itisverydifficulttoimagineascenarioinwhich
ourinvolvementinSyriawouldhaveledtoabetteroutcome,shortofusbeingwillingtoundertakeaneffortinsizeand
scopesimilartowhatwedidinIraq,hesaid.AndwhenIhearpeoplesuggestingthatsomehowifwehadjustfinanced
andarmedtheoppositionearlier,thatsomehowAssadwouldbegonebynowandwedhaveapeacefultransition,its
magicalthinking.

NearlyeveryoneItalkedtointheAdministrationconsideredtheredlineaftermathtobeadiplomaticfiasco.TheSyrian
governmentdid,however,giveupitsmainchemicalstockpileswhenitsallyRussiasteppedinandpressuredittodoso.
SergeiLavrov,theforeignminister,workedwithKerrytoclosethedeal.Meanwhile,Assadremainsinpower.The
Administration,whichstartedoutsayingthathemuststepaside,isnowwillingtoseeAssadplayatransitionalroleina
politicalsettlementbeforeleavingthestageatanundeterminedpoint.AsoneabashedU.S.officialtoldme,Themeaningof
Assadhastogohasevolved.

SohasKerrysviewofAssad.In2010,beforetheArabuprisings,KerrymetseveraltimeswithAssadinDamascus,at
Obamasrequest.TheAdministrationwantedKerrytoseewhatkindofSyrian-Israeliagreementhecouldhelpforge.Assad
expressedconcernthattheeconomicisolationofSyria,anditscripplingunemployment,wasbuildingupenormousstrain
andthattheregimecouldfalltoafundamentalist-ledrevolt.WalidMuallem,Assadsforeignminister,toldoneofKerrys
aides,Ifwedontsucceedinopeningupoureconomy,youllcomebackhereintenyearsandyoullmeetwithMullah
Assad.

AssadtoldKerrythat,inordertomakepeacewithIsrael,hehadtogetbacktheGolanHeights,territorylostinthe1967
war.Forthattobeconsidered,Kerryreplied,SyriawouldhavetoceasethetransitofarmsthroughSyriatoHezbollah,in
Lebanon,andtoHamas,inGaza.

Webasicallydeliveredhimaprettystrongmessageof,Youbetterstopthisorelse,Kerrytoldme.ButIalsoengaged
withhim,becausehewantedtotalkaboutanothersubjectarelationshipwithIsraelinthefuture.IdontthinkIveever
talkedaboutthispublicly,buthewasreadytomakeadealwithIsrael.AndtheproofofthatisaletterIstillhavethathe
wroteandsignedproposingastructurebywhichhewaswillingtorecognizeIsrael,haveanembassythere,makepeace,
dealwiththeGolan,etcetera.(ArepresentativeoftheSyriangovernmentdeniedthatAssadeverwrotesuchaletterhe
alsodeniedthatAssadtookanyoppressivemeasuresin2011.)SyriaaskedKerryforeconomicassistance,includinga
pipelinetoIraqandaidfortechnologyandhealthcare.WhenNetanyahuwastoldofthediscussions,hewasreluctant.Bibi
cametoWashington,andoneofthefirstthingsoutofhismouthintheOvalOfficewasIcantdothis.Imnotgoingto
Ijustcant.
 Oh,thosearethelobbyistswhogetusourgovernment
subsidies.Buytheprint

TheissuewasrenderedmootinMarch,2011,whentherevolutionbeganinSyria.AstheSyrianregimeincreaseditslevel
ofcrueltyfrommonthtomonthbeginningwiththepolicetorturingyoungprotestersandmovingontotheindiscriminate
killingofmanythousands,usingbarrelbombsalltalkofthesoft-spokenBritish-educatedophthalmologist,ofAssadas
thereformisthopeofSyria,waseclipsed.

Kerryshookhisheadatthememoryofit.AtdinnerinDamascus,AssadhadtoldKerryandHeinzabouthowhismother
couldnolongergotoalocalmosquedressedinaskirt.Hetalkedabouthowfemalecollegeclassmates,professional
women,werenowinhijab.Wewanttobeasecularcountry,Assadsaid,accordingtoKerry.Wedontwanttobe
inundatedbythis.

Kerrywenton,Ihadanimpressionthatthisguyhadseriousbusinessplans,growthplans,developmentplans,wantedto
change.WhenIpressedhimtodescribeAssadintermsofhiscrimes,hebackedoff.Youknowwhat?Iwanttotryto
talkcommonsensetohimthroughthisprocess,andIdonotwanttogetintoanyitsjusttheinappropriatemomentfor
meto...

BothKerryandHeinzsaidtheyhadheardfromtheirSyriansourcesthatAssadsmotherorhisbrother,Maheral-Assad,the
familyenforcerfigureandanArmygeneralwhocommandstheliteFourthArmoredDivisionandtheRepublicanGuard,
urgedBashartocrackdownhardontheprotestersotherwise,thefamilyandtheAlawiteregimewerefinished.Kerry
thinksofAssadasthetoxicproductofhisfamilyandhispoliticalenvironment,akindofrationalautocratwhosetoutto
reformhiscountrybut,whenfacedwiththeprospectofjoiningthelistofdeposedArabdictators,actedinthepredictably
monstrouswayofhisfather,who,in1982,slaughteredtwentythousandpeopleinthecityofHamatoputdownaMuslim
Brotherhooduprising.

Assad,Kerrysaid,madeenormous,giganticmistakes,andIthinktheyaredisqualifyingmistakes.Kerrycontinuestouse
bloodlesstermslikemistakesbecausehehopeshewillsoonbedealingwithAssadeitherthroughRussiaandIranor
throughthemedia,orevenanegotiatingteamfromDamascus.Eitherway,hisjob,asheseesit,istopersuade.The
AmericanpositionisstillthatAssadmustgo,but,inordertokeepRussiaandIraninthediscussion,ObamaandKerryhave
fudgedthequestionofwhen.

IbelieveSyriacanbeputbacktogetherstill,Kerrytoldme.ButIthinkthisisthelastshottotrytodoit.Ithinkthatif
youcantdothisitcouldbreakupintoenclavesandIraqcouldImean,youcouldseealotofthingshappen.Thisisnot
theThirtyYearsWartoday.But,ifallowedtofesterunabatedbythepeaceprocessorbyasolution,thiscouldbecomea
kindofThirtyYearsWar,becauseitcoulddevelopintoabona-fide,full-fledgedSunni-Shiaconflagration.

ViennaisasceneofsatisfactionforKerry.ItiswherehesigneddocumentsforanuclearsettlementwithMohammedJavad
Zarif,Iransforeignminister.ObamahadrampedupeconomicsanctionsandlaunchedcyberattacksagainstIranwell
beforeKerryjoinedtheAdministration,butwhenKerrywasstillasenatorhewasinvolvedinaseriesofsecretAmerican-
Iranianmeetings,brokeredbySultanQaboosbinSaid,ofOman,whichpreparedtheway.

Thetensioninthenegotiatingroomswassometimesunbearable.OppositiontothetalksragedfromJerusalemtoCapitol
Hill,andZarifmadeitknown,bothasatacticandasamatteroffact,thathefacedimmensepressureinTehranfromhard-
linerswhowantedtobreakoffnegotiations.Thesubtextallalongwaspossiblewar,theStateDepartmentofficialtoldme.
Itwasdiscussedopenly.DuringoneexchangeinLausanne,whenthetwosideswerearguingoverFordow,asecret
undergrounduranium-enrichmentsite,Kerryasked,Whydoyoucaresomuch?Youhavefacilitieselsewhere.

ZarifsaidthattheFordowinstallation,whichwasbuiltunderamountainnearthecityofQom,wasaninsurancepolicyin
caseIsraelortheUnitedStatesattackedIransothersites.Kerryreplied,Idontwanttobecrudeaboutit,butthatwont
saveyou.TheAmericansintheroomknewthatKerrywasreferringtoathirty-thousand-poundbombcalledtheMassive
OrdnancePenetrator,whichiscapableofdestroyingafacilitylikeFordow.

Theagreementcould,intime,collapseifIraniscaughtviolatingit,butObamaandKerryweremakingabetthattheycould
bothpreventanuclearIranandempowermoremodernelementsintheIranianliteswhomay,afterthepassingofAli
Khamenei,theSupremeLeader,andhishard-linecadreofayatollahs,liberalizetheregime.

InVienna,inthegaudy,chandelieredhauntsoftheImperial,Kerrywasnowtryingtobuildonthattreaty.Afteralongday,
heemergedfromhissessionswiththeRussians,Turks,andSaudismutteringsomediplomaticwordglobules:themeetings
wereconstructiveandproductiveandsucceededinsurfacingsomeideas,whichIamnotgoingtosharetoday,andwarm
congratulationstoAustriaontheoccasionofitsnationalday,and,asforhowlongAssadwillstayinpower,wecanagree
todisagree.

Thetalksweremoreeventfulthanheleton.Asalways,sometimehadtobeallottedforposturingandventing.Adelal-
Jubeir,theSaudiforeignminister,repeatedlyremindedtheroomofAssadsbutchery,referringtohimHomericallyasthe
manwhoskilledthreehundredthousandpeople.Lavrov,theRussianforeignminister,scoffedattheideaofamoderate
oppositionandrefusedtoacceptaspecifictimelineforAssadtostepdown.AnditwouldnotbeapartyiftheRussiansdid
notremindeveryoneofthechaoscreatedbytheAmericaninvasionofIraq.

Ihearitallthetime,Kerrytoldme.IhearitfromLavrov.Imean,weworkprofessionallyandwegoatthingsina
constructiveway,buthedoesntletmeforgetLibyaorEgyptorIraq,andthecolorrevolutionsinUkraine,Georgia,
andotherstateswheretheKremlinleadershipbelievestheU.S.hasfomentedrevolt.Irollwithit,butitsimportantto
understandit.Imean,ifyouregoingtotrytoworksomethingwithRussia,youneedtounderstandthedegreetowhich
thesethingsmatter.

Thefarragoofcompetingnationalinterests,thelegaciesofhistoricalblunders,thefantasticalcastofcharacters,thesheer
bloodlust,theprospectofregionalifnotglobalconflictallconspiretomakeKerrystaskinSyrianearlyimpossible.But
now,afteryearsofmoribunddiplomacyinthefaceofhorrificbloodshedandwavesofterrifiedrefugees,heseemedtobe
makingincrementalprogress.Notonlywereheandhisnegotiatingpartnerstalkingtheywerealsoheadingtowardgetting
Iranintheroom.Agatheringofagroupofunthinkablecountries,Lavrovcalledit.

Certainly,therewasagreatersenseofurgencyinWashington,inMoscow,inEurope,andintheGulf.TheIrannuclear
deal,despiteoppositioninIsrael,inSaudiArabia,andintheU.S.Congress,boostedthecredibilityofAmericandiplomacy,
andofKerryinparticular.VladimirPutininordertopropuptheSyrianregime,regainleverageintheMiddleEast,and
restoreasenseofpost-SovietRussiaasaworldpowerhasreturnedinforcetotheSyrianissue,unleashingwarplaneson
rebelpositions,inthenameofthefightagainstISIS.Withterrorattacksabroadandtheinfluxofhundredsofthousandsof
refugees,theSyriancrisisisnolongeraforeignmatterforEuropeortheUnitedStatesithascometoseemamatterof
nationalsecurity.
 Frankly,wereataloss,sowerelookingforsomeone
youngandstupidtotelluswhattodo.Buytheprint

Backontheplane,Kerrysatperchedontheedgeofhisbed,andtoldme,Weretryingtobreakacrazystalemate.There
wasawearydesperationinhisexpression.HeknewthattheRussiansandtheIranianscouldnotendorsetheideathat
Assadwasfinishedeveniftheybelievedthat,ultimately,hewas.Therecould,however,betalksaboutpolitical
transition.Noone,Kerrywassaying,wantedthegovernmentinstitutionstocrash,thewaytheyhadinIraq.And,if
youdontwantthegovernmenttocrash,youcanthaveAssadgoboom.

KerrycouldnotyetknowthetruemotivationofPutinandtheIranianleadershipinagreeingtosendemissariestotalksin
Vienna:Aretheythereonlytoprop[Assad]upandforever,oraretheytherehelpingtotrytoengineersomethingto
happen?AndsoIvebeentryingtoputthattothetest.

Finally,hisvoicegaveoutIcouldnolongerhearhimabovetheenginesofthejet,andheappearedtobeinpain.He
wincedbywayoffarewellandleftmetoreturntothebackoftheplane.

WhenKerrywasappointedbyObamatoheadtheStateDepartment,hemadeapointofmeetingwithhispredecessors.As
ayoungman,hedloathedHenryKissinger.Tohim,theNixonAdministrationrepresentedallthatwasmostcynicalabout
Americanpolitics.

KerryreturnedfromVietnamadecoratedveteranand,ashetoldtheTimes,anangryyoungman.Hebecamealeaderof
VietnamVeteransAgainsttheWar,and,withhisforthrightstyleofconfessionandoutrage,hewontheadmirationof
antiwarleaders.OnMeetthePress,Kerrysaidthathehadcommittedthesamekindofatrocitiesasthousandsofother
soldiershavecommitted:shootingsinfree-firezones,harassment,search-and-destroymissions,theburningofvillages.
Wearinghisfatiguesandhisdecorations,Kerrytestified,inApril,1971,fortwohoursbeforetheSenateForeignRelations
Committee,andaskedaquestionthatwasquotedaroundtheworld:Howdoyouaskamantobethelastmantodiein
Vietnam?Howdoyouaskamantobethelastmantodieforamistake?

Kerrysaid,SomeonehastodiesoPresidentNixonwontbe,andthesearehiswords,thefirstPresidenttoloseawar.
TheNixonAdministration,hesaid,hasdoneustheultimatedishonor.Theyhaveattemptedtodisownusandthesacrifices
wemadeforthiscountry.
Nixonwasrepelledand,atsomelevel,impressed.Talkingonthephonewithhiscounsel,CharlesColson,hesaidthatKerry
wassortofaphony,isnthe?ButevenH.R.Haldeman,Nixonschiefofstaff,toldthePresident,Hedidasuperbjobon
itattheForeignRelationsCommitteeyesterday.AKennedy-typeguy,helookslikeaKennedy,andhe,hetalksexactlylikea
Kennedy.

ButwhileKerrymadehisnameinaradicalvoice,hewasalwaysamanoftheestablishment.Morethananydiplomator
politicianthissideofBillClinton,hehasanabidingfaithinthevalueofpersonalrelationshipsandofhiscapacityto
persuade.Allhehastodoisgetthepartiesinaroomandhecantlose.Obama,bycontrast,hasnomorecultivated
relationshipswithforeignleadersthanhehaswithRepublicanleaders.WhereObamaisskeptical,Kerryisalmost
sentimentalinhisoptimism.HehasevenmadehispeacewithHenryKissinger:Iseekhisadvicehesabrilliantguy.He
recountedalunchthattheyhadrecently,atwhichKissingertoldhim,ThedifferencebetweenyouandmeisthatIthink
thatpersonalrelationsdontmattermuch.Ithinkinterestsmatter.Kerryreplied,Ithinkinterestsmatter,ofcourse,butI
thinkpersonalrelationscanhelpmatterstheycanbeinfluential.

NooneseemstoinspireKerrysoutrage,includingtheworstofhisnegotiatingpartners.Ithinktheywanttobevaluedfor
whotheyareandunderstoodforwheretheycomefromandwhattheirlifeisabout,hetoldme.Ithinkifpeoplehavea
sensethatyouknowwhattheyreabout,theycanbuildsometrustwithyou....Ithinkifyoucanshowthemthatyou
understandwhattheirchallengeis,howtheyhavetosellitathomeorhowtheyhaveto,whatitmeans,thesacrificethey
mighthavetomaketodoX,Y,orZ.

Asasenator,Kerry,whogrewupworshippingJ.F.K.,initiallysufferedthroughavexedrelationshipwithhisseniorpartner,
EdwardKennedy.TheKennedypeopleprivatelymockedKerryasstiff,pompous,ashowhorse,asMichaelJaneway,the
formereditoroftheBostonGlobe,oncedescribedKerrytohisface.TheKerrypeopleresentedKennedyforgrabbing
creditforeveryjointinitiative.But,withtime,KerrygainedrespectintheSenate,particularlyforseriousworkonissues
rangingfromforgingdiplomaticrelationswithVietnam(alongwithJohnMcCain)tohisinvestigationintothewaytheBank
ofCreditandCommerceInternationalhelpedGeneralManuelNoriega,ofPanama,launderhisdrugmoney.

SometimesKerrycouldplaymaddeninglytotype.Duringthe2004campaign,aninterviewerforGQaskedhim,Whats
thebestbottleofwineyouveeverhad?AslickerpolmighthavementionedasuperbFloridaMerlotoranunforgettable
OhioPinot,butevenanovicewouldknowtochooseadomesticwine,preferablyoneinabattlegroundstate.Probablya
Latour1961,Kerryanswered,thusassuringhiscampaigntheBordeauxprimary.

Butheishardlyaprep-schoolcartoon.Duringthecampaign,forexample,theGlobediscoveredboththatKerrys
grandfatherwasJewishandthathecommittedsuicide,twofactsthatKerryhadbeenunawareof.Hisfamilycamefrom
distinguishedlineagesbuthadlittlemoney.Kerrysfirstmarriagewastroubledhiswife,JuliaThorne,sufferedfromsevere
depressionandwrotethathermindwasravagedbycorrodingvoices,mybodydefeatedbybone-rattlingpanics,Isaton
theedgeofmybedminutesfromtakingmylife.WhenhewasseparatedfromThorne,KerryhadwhatTeresawouldcall
hisgypsyperiod,withnofixedaddress,hustlingtoseehistwodaughters,inBoston,whilehewasworkingin
Washington.(Thornediedofcancerin2006.)

OneofthegoverningclichsaboutKerryisthathisfourmonthsofcombatinVietnamandhisreturnasaleaderofthe
antiwar-veteransmovementshapedhiscareerasalegislatorandadiplomat.Kerrytoldmethewarshowedhimthatwe
canmakesometerriblemistakeswhenwedontthinkitthroughright.IcanrememberbeinginVietnamwatchingMelvin
Laird,SecretaryofDefense,flyingovermeaswewentdowntodosomecompletelystagedinvasionbecausetheoriginal
invasionplacehadtoomanyVietcong.Thesekindsofthingsstickoutatyou.ItsthereasonthatJosephHellerandCatch-
22haveparticularmeaningforalotofus.

WhatVietnamdidnotinstillinKerryisasenseofideologicalconsistency.CampaigningfortheSenatein1984,hedeclared
thathewouldhavevotedtocanceltheB-1bomber,theF-15,theTridentmissilesystem,andmanyotherweaponssystems,
onlytosaylaterthatsuchvoteswouldhavebeenill-advised,evenstupid.HedisagreedwiththeReagan
AdministrationsadventuresinCentralAmericaandGeorgeH.W.Bushsdecisiontobuildaninternationalcoalitionand
repelSaddamHusseinfromKuwait,in1991.ButhesupportedinterventioninKosovoand,in2002,withtorturedlogic,
votedforGeorgeW.BushsinvasionofIraq:Imean,IsupporteddisarmingSaddamHussein,butIwascriticalofthe
Administrationandhowitdiditsdiplomacyandsoforth.Thenhevotedagainsttheeighty-seven-billion-dollar
appropriationtofundreconstruction,aswellasmilitaryoperations,inIraqandAfghanistan.
 Thisnextsongsaboutpain.September5,2005Buythe
print

HealwaystoldmehewantedtobeinformedbyVietnambutneverimprisonedbyit,DavidWade,whowasaSenateaide
toKerryand,untilrecently,hischiefofstaffattheStateDepartment,toldme.Vietnam,rather,wasanemotional
touchstone.OntripswithfriendstotheVietnamMemorial,Kerrypointedouttheengravednamesofsoldierswhodiedafter
theParispeacetalksbegan.Hewouldtalkabouthowpeoplediedwhiletheyarguedovertheshapeofthenegotiating
table,Waderecalled.

IfIraqandthegeneralfailureoftheArabSpringtaughtKerryanything,itisagreaterwarinessoftheideaofdemocratic
crusades.Havinganelectiondoesnotmakeademocracy,hetoldme.WelearnedthatwithHamasnottoolongago.And
Idontthinkwevealwayspracticedthatverycarefully,andIthinkweneedtopracticeitverycarefully,frankly.Ifpeople
areonapathandmakinglegitimatemovesandchoices,Imcontenttonotpushthecurvebeyonditsabilitytobend.AndI
thinkwehavetobesmarteraboutthat.

AskedwhethertheidealismofWoodrowWilsonwastoopowerfulastraininAmericanforeignpolicy,hereplied,Yeah,a
littlebit,probably.Imean,IloveWilsonandIloveWilsonianidealism,butitsveryidealistic.

Inthenexttwodays,Kerrykeptuphispace.First,heflewtoAmman,wherehemetwithKingAbdullahandMahmoud
Abbas,thePalestinianleader.NeithertheJordaniansnorthePalestinianswereinanymoodtomeetwithNetanyahu,butthe
issuewasviolenceinJerusalemandtheWestBankand,inKerryspeak,howtobringdownthetemperature.The
meetings,particularlywiththeJordanians,weredelicatetheKingneededtoshowhissubjectsthatheretainedinfluence
overtheTempleMount.AndthepressconferencethatKerryheld,alongsidetheJordanianforeignminister,atanairportin
Amman,wasaneatlychoreographedjigofindirection.Atonepoint,Kerry,whohaddonehisparttoexpressexcruciating
evenhandednessincounsellingboththePalestiniansandtheIsraelistoratchetdowntheincitement,watchedwithstolid
irritationastheJordanianforeignminister,NasserJudeh,staggeredoffscript.Finally,Kerryscribbledanoteandhandedit
toJudeh,whoblinkedafewtimesandwrappedthingsup.Butnotbeforeremarkingontheobvious:Asalwaysinthispart
oftheworld,thingshaveatendencytoerupt.

ThepressconferencedidnotrevealthatKerryandJudehhadcalledNetanyahuandpersuadedhimtodeclarepubliclythat
theIsraeligovernmenthadnointentionofchangingthestatusoftheTempleMountwhichhedidinavideoonFacebook.
ButthiswasonlyafterhoursofcajolingandflyspeckingstatementswithNetanyahuandhisaidesaprocessthatcaused
theStateDepartmentofficialtojokethathehadaP.T.S.D.flashbackfromthefailed2013-14peacetalks.

Kerrywalkedtohisplane,whichtookoffintothedarkeningskyforSaudiArabia.Wearrivedlateintheevening,which
wasperfect,becauseSaudiofficials,likemoonflowers,bloomatnight.Theforeignminister,Adelal-Jubeir,greetedKerry
onthetarmac.Therewasanappropriatelymasculineembrace,thepoolreporternoted.Theyeachgrabbedtheothers
upperarm.AndthetraditionalArabkissoneachcheek,thoughtherewasnoactualskincontact.Youcouldsayitwasmore
ofanairkiss.

Aftertalkingforawhileattheairport,KerryandJubeirgotincarsandheadedtoDiriyahFarm,thecountryresidenceof
theSaudiking,Salman.SalmanhasbeenonthethroneonlysincethedeathofAbdullah,inJanuary,butheisseventy-nine
andinspottyhealthhereadshistalkingpointsoffaniPad.Intelligenceagenciesarealreadyatworktryingtosortoutwho
mightsucceedhim.

KerryenteredanopulentreceptionareathatthepoolreporteraptlydescribedasasunkenlivingroomthesizeofanN.H.L.
rink.Aidesinrobessatalongthewalls.Glanceatthemen,thepoolernoted,andyouknowthatithasbeenalongtime
sinceRichardBurtonthenineteenth-centuryBritishexplorerobservedthathehadneverseenafatmaninthedesert.
Finally,KerrymettheKing,inasmallerroom.

Imhappytoseeyou,theKingsaid,throughhistranslator.

Imhappytoseeyou,Kerryreplied.Thisismyfavoritepalace.Ilovethisplace.

Thisisouroriginalhometown,theKingsaid.

WhenKerrybecameSecretary,theSaudiswerestillangryattheAdministrationfor,intheireyes,betrayingareliableally-
autocratlikeHosniMubarak.WhatiftheHouseofSaudcametosuchapass?TheSaudiswerealsodismayedbyObamas
reluctancetoattackSyria.Turkial-Faisal,theformerdirectorofSaudiintelligenceandamemberoftheroyalfamily,said,in
2013,thatObamasfailuretofollowthroughonhisredlinewarningwouldbefunnyifitwerenotsoblatantly
perfidious.

Thefocusofthemeeting,forKerry,wastonaildownwhathadbeenraisedinViennathedaybefore,persuadingtheKing
toincludeIraninthetalksonSyria.TheKingssecuritycouncilincludingtheforeignminister,theCrownPrince,the
deputyCrownPrince,theheadofintelligencelistenedintentlyasthetwomentalked.Salmanseemedtoleavethequestion
ofIranalittlemoreopenandtoldKerrythatheshouldnowmeetwiththesecurityteam.Kerrysteamwashopeful,
thinkingthatSalmanhadgiventhemroomtomaneuver.

WiththeKinggone,theSaudiadvisers,despitetheirritualexpressionsofdistasteforIran,agreedtobeinthesameroom
withZarifatfuturemeetingsinVienna.Thiswouldnotbefirst-levelnewsaroundtheworld,necessarily,andthewarwent
on,andthewavesofrefugeeskeptarrivinginJordanandTurkeyandontheshoresofLesvos.But,forKerry,thesewere
thekindsofmovesapawnseizingacentersquarethatjustmightleadtoanendgame.

TheflightfromRiyadhtoAndrewswasscheduledtotakefifteenhours,witharefuellingstopinIreland.AtShannon,the
planepulleduptoadesertedterminal.DressedinjeansandaYalehoodie,Kerrysettleddownatatablenearthebarand
orderedahottoddyandaplateofsalmonsandwiches.

Damn,thesearegood,hesaid.

Theproprietorofthebar,whointroducedhimselfasDeclan,presentedKerrywithabottleofIrishwhiskeyandadramof
advice.

MyfatherdiedwhenIwasjustafewyearsoldandmymotherdidntdrink,Declansaid,butwheneverIwassickshe
wouldtakeaspoonfulofthisandputitinhotwater.Workslikeacharm.

Kerrysmiledprofessionally,buthewaslongpastcharminganyone.Hewasexhausted,andtherewaslittlelefttohisvoice.
YethekepttalkingashestoleglancesataManchesterUnitedgameontheTVabovethebar,heobsessedaboutthenext
weekstriptoVienna,theplayersatthetable,whatwaspossible.

Asadiplomat,HillaryClintonwinscreditinsidetheAdministrationforvisitingahundredandtwelvecountriesandhelpingto
transformAmericasimageintheworldafterthecatastrophicBushyears.SheledeffortstoopenrelationswithBurma,
brokereda2012ceasefirebetweenIsraelandHamasinGaza,anddraftedeconomicsanctionsonIran.Butshewasas
restrainedinherambitionsasshewasdisciplined.Kerry,bycontrast,isconsideredrelentless,sometimestoafault.Thereis
noconcealinghiseagernesstomakeadealtoacritic,hisstyleisreminiscentofthecustomerwhosternlytellsthe
salesman,Imnotleavinghereuntilyousellmeacar.

Mycareerdoesntreflectwhatmypassionsareasmuchas
wheremyhealthinsuranceis.December19,2005Buythe
print

BenRhodes,thedeputynational-securityadviser,saidthatthePresidentappreciatesKerryswillingnesstodiveinwithout
knowinghowthestoryisgoingtoend.YourenotgoingtoachieveanIrandealwithoutthat.Kerryhatesbeingcutoutof
theaction.Hewas,Rhodesadmitted,annoyedthattheopeningtoCubathisyearhadalmostnothingtodowiththeState
Department.Thatwastheonlywayitwasgoingtogetdone,Rhodessaid.ThatwastheCubanpreference.They
wantedtodealwiththeWhiteHouse.

ButifthereistobeanykindofdiplomaticprogressinSyriaitwilldependlargelyonKerryandhisnegotiatingpartners.A
weekafterprevailingontheSaudistositatthesametablewithIran,hereturnedtoVienna.Multilateralmeetings
customarilybeginwitharoundofopeningstatementsfromeverypartyintheroom,andZarifandJubeir,theIranianand
Saudiforeignministers,laidbaretheirradicallydifferentnarratives.IntalkswiththeU.S.,ZarifhadremindedKerryofthe
C.I.A.sroleinthe1953overthrowofMohammedMossadegh,theIranianPrimeMinister,andnowheremindedJubeirthat
fifteenofthe9/11hijackerswerefromSaudiArabia.Jubeir,forhispart,hadalreadyremarkedonIransroleinterrorismin
theregion.TheAmericansmighthavefoundallthisamusinghaditnotbeenreminiscentoftheworstmomentsofthe
nucleartalks.WhenthesubjectshiftedtoSyria,theatmospherehardlylightened.Thetwoblamedeachotherforfomenting
fundamentalismandexploitingthechaoseverywhereintheregion.

Severaltimes,theAmericandelegationwonderedifZariforJubeirorbothwouldwalkout.Astheafternoonworeon,one
foreignminister,whowasgrowingexasperated,turnedtooneofKerrysaidesandsaid,Whenishishardstop?
meaning,whendoesKerryhavetoleaveforhisnextflight?

Notuntilten,theaidesaid.

Theforeignministersighed.Themeetinglastedsevenhours.

Thevictoriesweresmall.Inthecommuniqu,IranandSaudiArabiaallowedthemselvestobelistedtogetherasparticipants
afirst.Thedocumentalsocarrieddog-whistlelanguageabouttransitioninSyriabutwithoutatimelineforAssads
departure.ItmentionedtheneedtopreservetherightsofallSyrians,whichwasmeanttoassuretheAlawiteminority,
whichrulesSyria,thattherewouldbenoslaughterifAssadgivesuppower.AnyelectionwouldhavetoincludetheSyrian
diaspora,whichwouldlowerAssadsoddsofwinning.

Thereiseveryreasontobeskepticalabouttheeffort.WhatroleswillthewarringpartiesinSyriaplay?HowcanRussiaand
TurkeypossiblywalktowardacommongoalaftertheTurksshotdownaRussianbomber?Therebelsaredeeplyfractured
whatsinthetalksforthem?Whorepresentsthem?UnderwhatcircumstanceswouldAssad,who,thankstoRussia,is
nowinastrongerposition,stepaside?IfheisreplacedbyanotherfigureintheAlawiteregime,whywouldSunnifactions
acceptthatperson?And,ifthereareelections,whatwouldhappenifAssadtheultimaterecruitingtoolforISISwins?
WhywouldthejihadimilitiaJabhatal-Nusralaydownarms?

Therewillbemoremeetingsinhotelconferencerooms,asthewarcontinuesandISISmakesitsplans.But,asKerrysteam
wasquicktopointout,thishadbeenacompletelymoribundareaofdiplomacyfortheprevioustwoyears.Whenthe
meetingendedandKerryreadoutthelanguageofthecommuniqu,therewasapplause.

Notcelebratory,exactly,butsignificant,oneaidetoldme.Wellseewhereitgoes.

Intheweekssince,Kerryhasremainedaloft.Oneday,hisplanesettledinSamarkand,wherehepatientlyenduredaforty-
five-minutelecturefromthedictatorofUzbekistan.Thenextday,hewasinAshgabat,thesurreal,peoplelesscapitalof
Turkmenistan,ahermeticstatewherethepost-Sovietdictatorrenamedthedaysoftheweekanddevotedanationaldayto
themuskmelon.KerryhadflowntoSantiagototakepartinaconferencetosavetheworldsoceans.ThenhewasinParis,
inthewakeoftheterroristattackattheBataclanconcerthall,tojointalksdesignedtorescuetheearthfromoverheatingto
thepointofglobalcatastrophe.

Iabsolutelylovethisjob,hetoldmemorethanonce.Itissomuchfun.

Veryoccasionally,hestealsawaytorelax(togotothegym,toattendtheHarvard-Yalefootballgame)orjusttoreflect.
Whenheretires,Kerrysaid,hellwriteabookandstayinvolvedsomehowinpublicaffairs,particularlyenvironmental
issues.Buthedoesntthinkaboutretirement.ThebutcheryinSyriagoeson,theMiddleEastisinastateofdissolution.At
dinnerathishouse,Kerrywastalkingyetagainabouthisoptimism,theprospectforaceasefire,theendofAssad.Iasked
whatwouldcomenext.TherearentanyThomasJeffersonswaitingtoassumepower.

Idontknow,hesaid.MaybeAlexanderHamiltonis,whoknows?Helaughedandsaidtherewasnoreasonthat
someonefromtheseculareducatedlitecouldnotemerge:IthinkthenotionthattheophthalmologistfromLondonis
somehowtheonlyguywhocanrunSyriaisinsultingtoSyrians.

OnVeteransDay,hewenttoArlingtonNationalCemeterytovisitthegraveofoneoftheclosestfriendshelostinVietnam
RichardPershing,thegrandsonofGeneralJohnJ.Pershing,thecommanderofAmericanforcesduringtheFirstWorld
War.Whenhegotthere,hesawthattherewasacrowdaroundBlackJackPershingsgrave.Ratherthanattractattention,
heduckedbehindatreeandchattedforawhilewithamilitarybuglerwhowastheretoplayTaps.Afterthecrowd
dispersed,Kerrywalkedinhispained,amblingwayalongtherowsofgraves,countlessgraves,stoneafterstonemarking
warafterwar.

Signupforthedailynewsletter:thebestofTheNewYorkereveryday.

Needtostopreading?

Wellsendyouareminder.
 From: JohnBDunlop<jbdunlop@stanford.edu>
Senttime: 12/05/201510:39:20AM
To: martin.dewhirst@gmail.com
Cc: robertotto25@gmail.com
Subject: FW:NYTimes:RussianTruckers,IrateOverNewTolls,BlockRoadsNearMoscow

-----OriginalMessage-----
From:GlenHoward[mailto:howard@jamestown.org]
Sent:Saturday,December05,20156:23AM
To:SerapKara-HowardGlenE.HowardJonasBernsteimJohnBDunlopWillemdeVogelClintonSm
ullyanJr
Subject:NYTimes:RussianTruckers,IrateOverNewTolls,BlockRoadsNearMoscow

MOSCOWHundredsoflong-distancetruckersblockedalengthysectionoftheringroadcirclingth
ecapitalonFridaytoprotestanewnationaltoll,inthefirstsignthatRussiaseconomicwoes
mightbeerodingthebroadsupportforPresidentVladimirV.Putinsgovernment.
ThedirectobjectoftheirirewasIgorRotenberg,thescionofabillionaireoligarchclanclose
toMr.Putin,whoownshalfofanew,GPS-basedsystemthat,whenfullyoperational,willcharget
ruckersfeesonallfederalhighways.

Theirlargeranger,however,wasreservedforwhattheycalledthegovernmentsfailuretoallevia
tethedevastatingeffectsofinflationandrecessionoverthepastyear,promptedbythesteepdr
opinoilprices,sanctionstheWestimposedoverUkraineandretaliatorysanctionstheKremlinim
posedonWesternfoodimports.

Thereisnoeconomicprogramatallwhereisallthemoney?saidVladimirRomanov,65,thepar
t-ownerofasmallMoscowtruckingfirmwiththree18-wheelers.Thecountryisveryrich,yetwe
livelikehell.

TheRussianeconomyisdeeplytroubledandshowsfewsignsofescapingfromitsrut,atleastasl
ongaspricesforoilandothercommoditiesremaindepressed.Inflationisrunningat15.6percent
andtheeconomyhasshrunknearly4percentinthelastyear.Therublehaslostabouthalfitsv
alueagainstthedollar,andforeignreserveswerehoveringaround$366billion,comparedwith$41
9billionayearago.

Whilethatshouldmeanhardtimesforeveryone,someanalystssaysomethingelseisatwork.Given
theshrinkingoilrevenueandtheeconomy,theysay,theRussianeliteisseekingnewrevenuestr
eamsevenattheexpenseofthemiddleclass.

Atatimewhenthepieisshrinking,theclansaretryingtokeeptheirportionorevenexpandit
,saidNikolaiPetrov,aprofessoratMoscowsHigherSchoolofEconomics.Theprivatizedtollsy
stemcreatesanewincomesource,henoted,butitwillcausefriction.

Thetruckersarewidelydispersedandhencedifficulttocontrol,andtheirsentimentsreflecttho
seoftheentiremiddleclass,Mr.Petrovsaid.Theyfeelthatthegovernmentistryingtofixbu
dgetaryproblemsbyincreasingtaxesandtakingmoneyoutoftheirpockets,hesaid.
Underthenewsystem,driversmustbuyatrackingdeviceandpayaccordingtotheirmileage.An80
0-mileroundtripbetweenMoscowandSt.Petersburgcostsanextra$33atcurrentexchangeratesa
ndwillriseto$66nextMarch.

Truckerssaidthatthenewtollamountedtoabout10percentoftheirrevenueforeachtrip,andt
hatitcameontopofotherheftytransportationtaxes,sharplyreducingtheirmonthlywagesofar
ound$500to$600.

Thegovernmentarguesthatthetruckscausesignificantroadwearandsaysthetollswillgenerate
morethan$700millionayeartopayformaintenance.Thisishowatransportationsystemfuncti
onsworldwide,MaximY.Sokolov,thetransportationminister,toldstatetelevisionthisweek.

TruckersmockedtheideathatthetollmoneywouldendupbeinginvestedinRussiasnotoriouslyp
oorroads.

Theyhavealreadyincreasedtaxesonfuelandpromisedtocancelthetransportationtax,butthey
haveonlyincreasedit,saidVladimirDeryugin,51,whosetrucksatamongroughly20linedupin
anIkeaparkinglotinKhimki,asmallcityonthenorthernedgeofMoscow.Afewboresignssayi
ngNotoPlaton!theRussianacronymforthesystem.Policecarshadblockedallentrancesand
exitstothelot.
Thedemonstrations-on-wheelsaretheclosestthingtolarge-scalepoliticalproteststhatRussiah
asseensincetheprofessionalclassestooktothestreetsofMoscowin2011and2012toopposeth
ewayMr.Putinreturnedtothepresidencyforathirdterm.Thatmovementwascenteredinthenar
rowworldoftheMoscowandSt.Petersburgintelligentsia.

ThetruckdriversarethekindofbedrockRussiansforwhomMr.Putinhaslongbeenahero.Andev
enastheyrailedaboutthenewtollsandtheeconomy,theyretainedacertainreluctancetocriti
cizethemanhimself.

Ourpresidentwasduped,Mr.Romanovsaid.Hesignedwithoutthinking.Hisfriendsdupedhim.T
hesonstudiedinBritain,thenhecameback.Heneedstoearnmoney.SoRotenbergcomestothepr
esidentandtellshim:letthesonearnmoney.

ThenewtollsystemisoperationalonlyintheMoscowregionfornow,butsincethatissuchanat
ionalhubithasalreadyelicitedprotestsacrossthecountry,includingintheDagestanrepublic,
inthecitiesofVologda,NizhnyNovgorod,Bryansk,inSmolenskineasternRussia,inYekaterinbu
rginthecentralUrals,andinSt.Petersburg.

OnetruckerfromdistantVladivostokcommentedonsocialmediathathewantedtojointhedemonstr
ationsbutthattheroadsweresobaditwouldtakehim12daystomakethecross-countrytrip.

Someanalystsconsidertheprotestsproofthatwhatiswidelycalledthetelevisiongovernment
propagandaaboutRussiasrisingstatusintheworldislosingitsedgeoverthefridge,ore
conomicproblems.

Thereservesarenotlimitless,saidAlexanderAuzan,theeconomicsdeanatMoscowStateUnivers
ity,speakingonDozhdtelevision.Whatweseenow,thesituationwiththetruckers,isthefirst
rumbleofthundersomewherefaraway.

Thegovernmentevidentlyhopestorideouttheprotests,whichwentunreportedonthemainstate-r
untelevisionnewschannel.

Thepolicewerethefirstlineofdefense,establishingcheckpointsontheouterreachesoftheca
pitaltoblockaccesstotheMKAD,themajorringroadcirclingthecity.Ifthatbecomesparalyze
d,trafficbacksupallacrossMoscow.

Thepolicetriedanumberofstrategiestothwarttheprotesters.Theydeclaredsomedriversdrunk
,truckerssaid,allowingthemtosuspendtheirlicensesfor24hours.Sometimesthepolicedisco
veredamechanicalproblemmakingthevehicleunfittodrive.Somedriverswereforcedtosignpl
edgesthattheywouldnotjoinanyprotest.Eventuallythepolicesettledforcorrallingthetruck
sintoonesix-milesectionoftheroadanddivertingothertraffic.

ThecityofMoscowannouncedonFridaythatitwouldhavetolimittrafficthecitycenterinDece
mbertopreparefortheVictoryDayparadewhichisheldinMay.ThestateDuma,orParliament,
hastriedtomollifytheprotesters,loweringthefinesfornoncomplianceandlimitingthepenalty
toonefineperday.

ThePutinadministrationitselfrepeatedlyoffereddialogueandcompromiseintheformofgraduate
dtariffs,butthetruckersaredemandingthetollsbescrappedentirely.Mr.Putinhimselfhasno
tcommentedpubliclyontheprotests.

Hisspokesman,DmitriS.Peskov,toldreportersthatitwasnotapresidentialmatterbutanissue
fortheministryoftransportation.
TruckerslikeMr.RomanovsaidthatsupportforMr.Putinwhoseapprovalratingshavebeenabove
80percenteversinceheannexedCrimeainMarch2014hasdroppeduniversallyamongdriversfor
cedtopaythenewtax.Therehasbeensomeonlinechatterandsomepublicdiscussionaboutwhethe
rtheangerwasenoughtosparkaMaidan,theprotestsincentralKievthatbroughtdownthegover
nmentofneighboringUkraineinearly2014.

Mr.Romanovsaidthatthedrivershadnosuchthinginmind,andthattheyonlywantedtoearnal
iving.

WedontneedaMaidanhere,wedontneedanyextremism,hesaid.Wearenormalpeoplewithout
politicaldemands.Wejustdontwantthegovernmenttogetintoourpockets.
Someofthosewatchinghadotherideas.AllacrossMoscow,themovementofthetruckscirclingthe
citywasbeingmonitoredonvarioussocialmedia,inspiringalivelystreamofcriticismandsupp
ort.

Whyonlytheringroad?saidone,WhynotRedSquare?
GetnewsandanalysisfromEuropeandaroundtheworlddeliveredtoyourinboxeverydaywiththe
TodaysHeadlines:EuropeanMorningnewsletter.Signuphere.

IvanNechepurenkocontributedreporting.

http://www.nytimes.com/2015/12/05/world/europe/russian-truckers-protest-tolls.html?smprod=nytcore-
ipad&smid=nytcore-ipad-share

ThetruckdriversunhappyaboutnewtollsandtheeconomyarethekindofbedrockRussiansforwho
mVladimirV.Putinhaslongbeenahero.
 From: RobertOtto<robertotto25@gmail.com>
Senttime: 12/14/201501:09:11PM
To: JuliaWorth<juliagworth@gmail.com>
Subject: JohnKerrysMiddleEastMission-TheNewYorker

http://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2015/12/21/negotiating-the-whirlwind?intcid=mod-most-popular

NegotiatingtheWhirlwind

Hisoptimismissuchthathethinks,Wewillconfrontthis!
oneofficialsaidofKerrysattitude.Theresgottobea
solution.IllustrationbyBarryBlitt

JohnKerry,thesixty-eighthSecretaryofStateoftheUnitedStates,wasborntoatemperamentofwintryrectitude.Heis
descendedfromtheWinthrops,whohelpedfoundtheMassachusettsBayColony,andtheForbeses,aBrahminclanthat
madeitsmoneyinrailwaysandinexportingtea,silver,andopiumtoChina.Hisfatherwasadiplomat.KerryattendedSt.
PaulsandYale(wherehewasinSkullandBones)and,asanavalofficerinVietnam,earnedthreePurpleHearts,theBronze
Star,andtheSilverStar.HedatedJacquelineKennedyshalf-sister,sailedwithJ.F.K.,andmarriedtwiceintosubstantial
fortunes.Despitethecodesofhisclass,however,Kerrywasneverentirelysubtleabouthisambitions.Whenhewasinprep
school,hisclassmatesusedtoplayHailtotheChieftohimonthekazoo.

In2004,whenKerrylostthePresidentialracetoGeorgeW.Bush,whoiswidelyconsideredtheworstPresidentofthe
modernera,herefusedtochallengetheresults,despitehissuspicionthatincertainstates,particularlyOhio,wherethe
ElectoralCollegecounthinged,proxiesforBushhadriggedmanyvotingmachines.Buthecouldnotsufferthedefeatin
completesilence.HewasoutragedthatBush,whohadwonastatesideberthintheTexasAirNationalGuardduringthe
VietnamWar,usedcampaignsurrogates,theso-calledSwiftBoatVeteransforTruth,toslimehismilitaryrecord.Hewas
furious,too,atRobertShrum,hischiefstrategist,andothercampaignadviserswhohadrestrainedhimfromhittingback.

Foralongperiod,after2004,everytimeheevenhalffellasleepallhesawwasvotingmachinesinthestateofOhio,Mike
Barnicle,aclosefriendofKerrysandaformercolumnistfortheBostonGlobe,toldme.Thissummer,Barniclespenttime
withKerryonNantucket,whereKerryandhiswife,TeresaHeinz,haveahouseonthewaterandaseventy-six-foot,seven-
million-dollarsailboatcalledIsabel.Weweresittinginthebow,Barniclerecalled,andweweretalkingaboutabunchof
differentthingsaboutIran,aboutwhatthePresidentofIranwaslikeandIsaid,OtherthannotbeingPresident,thisis
prettygood.Therewasasecurityboatsailingofftothesideofus.Thenhesaid,Yeah,yeah,IrealizehowbadlyShrum
screwedme.
Afewweeksago,betweenKerrystripstoEuropeandtheMiddleEast,IhaddinnerwithKerryandHeinzattheirhousein
Georgetown,atwenty-three-roommansiondecoratedwithEarlyAmericanportraits,Dutchstill-lifes,andanamiableyellow
LabradorretrievernamedBen.(TheLabhastheTwitterhandle@DiploMutt.)IaskedKerryhowlonghecarriedarounda
senseofangerandresentment.

Ididntcarryit,heinsisted.Ididnt.Ididnt.MywifewasmadatmethatIdidntcarryitlonger.

Fromacrossthetable,TeresaHeinzsaid,Imstillcarryingit.

TheSecretaryofStatelookedupfromhishalibut.Anillwindofpanicswepttheoblongplainofhisface.Fromthethick
thatchofgrayhairtotheimprobablylongandthrustingchin,Kerrysvisageisimmenseand,initsimplacableresting
expression,resemblesoneofthemonolithicheadsthatrisefromtheloamofEasterIsland.

Well,Imnot,Kerrysaid.

Hisgazeturnedtohiswife,wordlesslyimploringhertokeepquiet.Heinzisseventy-seven,fiveyearsolderthanher
husband,and,in2013,shesufferedaseizurethatshehasattributedtoanearlierconcussionthatwasnotproperlytreated
atall.Itsnoteasyforhertogetaround,andsheappearsinfrequentlyatpublicevents,butshespokeclearlyandardently
throughouttheevening,muchasshehadduringthe2004campaign.

Shewasnotquitedone.Iknewfromlookingatthe...

KerryusesmanytermsofendearmentforhiswifenowhecalledherbythetelegraphicT.

T,letsnotgo...hesaidgently.

Asshetriedtospeakagain,heshutitdown.

T,T,werenot...Ididntwanttospendtimethere,hesaid.Ijustconsciouslydidnotspendtimethere,andImoved
on,andImovedonasrapidlyas...Itsover.Itsbehindme....Icouldhavedonesomethingsalittlebitdifferently.We
didnt.ButImnotgoingtofeelregrettherestofmylife.

Inearly2013,aftertwenty-eightyearsintheSenate,KerrysucceededHillaryClintonasSecretaryofState.Heisseventy-
two,andthisisalmostsurelyhislasthigh-rankingjobasapublicofficial.Asheputittome,Ihavefourteenmonthsleft
ontheclock.HehasalreadymadehishistoricalmarkbyactingastheObamaAdministrationschiefnegotiatorinthe
nucleartalkswithIran.Thatdeal,whichisdesignedtopreventIranfrombuildinganatomicweaponandsparkinganuclear
armsracethroughouttheMiddleEast,wassignedtwomonthsago.Butitwasneveraforegoneconclusion.Thistimelast
year,theWhiteHousewasrunningPlanBmeetingsaboutwhatstepstotakedeepersanctions,potentialmilitarystrikes
ifthetalksfailed.

HisadmirersandhiscriticsinthediplomaticworlddescribeKerryinsimilarterms:tirelesslyoptimistic,dogged,rhetorically
undisciplined,undauntedbyrisk,convincedthatifhecanjustgettherelevantpartiesintotheroomhecanmakeadeal.
JohnKerrypickshisbattles,andheinvestsbodyandsoulintacklingconflictswherethehumanconsequencesarevery
high,SamanthaPower,theUnitedStatesAmbassadortotheUnitedNations,toldme.Whenheengages,heisallin.

Kerryhasshownrepeatedlythathewilluseanyleverasameansofdiplomaticpersuasionincludinghisdefeatin2004.

InJuly,2014,AfghanistanfacedapotentialcivilwarasthecandidatestosucceedHamidKarzaiasPresidentAbdullah
Abdullah,aphysicianandtheformerforeignminister,andAshrafGhani,theformerchancellorofKabulUniversity
chargedeachotherwithtryingtostealtheelection.Afewyearsearlier,Kerry,servingasObamasemissarywhilestillinthe
Senate,hadtalkedKarzaidownfromrecklessdecisionsbyrecallinghisownpoliticalupheavalsnowheneededtodo
somethingsimilar.

OnJuly12th,AbdullahmetwithKerry,inKabul,attheAmericanAmbassadorsresidence.Abdullahssupportersinthe
NorthernAllianceandamongvariouswarlordsGhanihadhisownwarlordconstituencydidnotwanthimtobackdown.
ItwaslefttoKerrytoarguethat,despitewhatwasdelicatelydescribedaselectoralimproprieties,confrontationhadtobe
avoided.

IranforPresidentandIlostandnowImSecretaryofStateofthemostpowerfulcountryintheworld,Kerrytold
Abdullahandhisentourage,accordingtoanaidescontemporaneousnotes.Iknowyouranger.Iknowyourfrustration.
HepressedAbdullahnottowalkawayfrompolitics,lestthecountrytumbleintochaosandthenextgenerationloseits
chance.

TheUnitedNationscarriedoutanauditoftheelectionanddeterminedthatalthoughtherehadbeenfraudonbothsides,
Ghanihadwon.Abdullahwasstillnotpreparedtoyield.OnSeptember17th,KerrycalledAbdullahfromhisofficeatthe
StateDepartmenttopersuadehimtoconcedeandaccepttheface-savingpositionofchiefexecutiveofficerinGhanis
government.

Buytheprint

HeaskedAbdullahtoputhisphoneonspeakersothathisaidescouldhear.AfterflatteringAbdullahforhisstrengthand
importanceinthecountry,Kerrysaid,Iwillsharewithyouaverypersonalexperience:WhenIranforPresidentofthe
UnitedStates,in2004,againstGeorgeBush,intheend,onElectionDay,wehadproblemsinthestateofOhioonhowthe
votesweretakingplace.IevenwenttocourtinAmericatokeeppollingplacesopentomakesuremypeoplecouldvote.I
knewthateveninmycountry,theUnitedStates,wherewehadhundredsofyearsofpracticingdemocracy,westillhad
problemscarryingoutthatelection.Thenextafternoon,Ihadameetingwithmypeople,andItoldthemthatIdidnotthink
itappropriateofmetotakethecountrythroughthreeorfourmonthsofnotknowingwhothePresidentwas.Sothat
afternooninBostonIconcededtothePresidentandtalkedabouttheneedtobringthecountrytogether....Oneofthe
mainlessonsfromthisisthereisafuture.Thereisatomorrow.

Severaldayslater,AbdullahAbdullahconcededandjoinedtheAfghangovernment.

KerryandHeinzhavenoshortageofresidencesinadditiontothehousesinGeorgetownandonNantucket,theyliveinan
eighteenth-centuryfive-storypileonLouisburgSquare,inBeaconHillinafamilycompoundonNaushon,aprivateisland
offCapeCodinafifteenth-centuryEnglishfarmhousethatwasreassembledonthebankofBigWoodRiver,inSunValley
andonaninety-acrefarmcalledRosemont,outsidePittsburgh,whereHeinzspenttimewithherfirsthusband,H.John
HeinzIII,theRepublicansenatorandcondimentsscion,whodiedin1991.WhenKerryranforPresident,herfortunewas
estimatedataroundabilliondollars.KerryandHeinzkeeptheirfinancialassetsseparate,but,hadKerrywonin2004,they
would,together,havebeenthewealthiestfamilyevertooccupytheWhiteHouse.

AsSecretaryofState,however,Kerryspendsmuchofhislifeonboardaworse-for-weargovernmentjet,aBoeing757.
BothKerryandClintonhaveoftenhadthehumblingexperienceoftheplanebreakingdown:ablowntire,aleakinan
auxiliaryfueltank,electronicproblems.

Kerryissix-fourandwalkswithapainedrollinhisgait.Hehashadbothhipsreplacedhisice-hockeydaysatYaletooka
tollandheisstillrecoveringfromanaccidentlastMay,inwhichhesteeredhisracingbikeintoacurb,crashedtothe
road,andshatteredhisrightfemur.Hetravelsinacabininthefrontoftheplane,whereacouchunfoldsintoabed,
allowinghimtostretchouttoreadbriefingpapersandtomakecallsonasecuretelephonelinetoforeignleadersandtothe
WhiteHouse.Hedoesntsleepmuch,butsometimeshebringsalonganylon-stringguitarandrelaxesbyplayingBeatles
songs,Spanishlaments,andshowtunes.(ArgentinawillbedelightedtohearthatEvitaisafavorite.)Whenhesononeof
hisdiplomaticdeathmarchesthroughsomerarelyvisitedregionrecently,itwasfiveCentralAsiannationsintwodays
helikestoboneupwithacrashcourse.

IusuallyGoogleacountry,findaninterestingarticleortwo,readaboutit,getsomehistory,hetoldme.Iwanttoknow
whereIam.Iwanttoknowwhatmadethisplacelikeitis.WhatisitaboutSamarkandthatsspecial?

InlateOctober,Ijoinedhimononeofthedeathmarches,aThursday-to-SundaytripfromAndrewsAirForceBase,
outsideD.C.,toBerlin,Vienna,Amman,andRiyadh.Hisjobistogivestrategicadvice,helpexecuteWhiteHousepolicy,
tampdowncrises,andreachagreementstostrokeallies,sendclearsignalstopowersconsideredmoreproblematic,like
Russia,Turkey,SaudiArabia,andChinaandtoforgepotentialrelationshipswitholdenemieslikeIran.

TheObamaAdministration,workinginthepoliticalsafehavenofasecondterm,haswontworecent,ifdivisive,victories:
thedealwithIranandtheopeningtoCuba.Italsohasabucketlist:reachingaceasefireandpoliticalsettlementinSyria
steppingupaninternationallycordinatedfightagainstISISandadvancingthefightagainstclimatechange.Thistripwas
designedmainlytogetwildlydisparatepartiesfromtheWest,Russia,andtheMiddleEasttobeginnegotiationsonSyria.In
particular,thetrickwastogetIranintheroomwithoutlosingitsswornenemies,theSunninationsoftheGulf.

Kerryspersistenceandself-assurance,coupledwithexcruciatingeconomicsanctions,iswhathelpedhimsucceedwiththe
Iranians.Itsalsowhatledtoninemonthsoffruitless,chaotic,and,arguably,corrosivenegotiationsthatbrokedownlast
yearbetweentheIsraelisandthePalestiniansnegotiationsthatalmostnoone,noteventhePresident,believedwouldlead
toabreakthrough.Kerryarguedthatthehellboundtrajectoryofeventswasheadingtowardcalamity,andhehadtotryhis
criticssaidthattheconditionswerenotripe,andthattheeffortamountedtoadiplomaticvanityproject.KerrysMiddle
EastadventurewaspreciselythekindofinitiativethatHillaryClinton,whowasintentonrunningforPresident,andwhois,
bynature,moreriskaverse,wasdisinclinedtotakeupasSecretaryofState.

ThePresidenthasadmiredKerrysenergyandsenseofcommitmentsincetheyworkedtogetherontheSenateForeign
RelationsCommittee,although,anumberofsourcestoldme,heoccasionallyribsKerryforhismoreheadlongefforts.And
yetthetwohavemarkedlydifferenttemperamentsandviewsofwhattheUnitedStatesshouldattempttoachieve,
particularlyintheMiddleEast.ObamaseestheregioninthethroesofhistoricalturmoilSunniversusShia,civilwarin
Syria,threatstonationalboundariesdrawnbyFranceandGreatBritainacenturyago,threatstothestabilityofLebanon,
Jordan,evenSaudiArabia.Havingseenoneinterventionafteranotherfail,heisdeterminedtoactwithrestraint.Kerry,on
theotherhand,seesnohistoricaltrendsthatcandefeatus,PhilipGordon,aveteranNationalSecurityCouncilofficialand
ObamasprincipaladviserontheMiddleEastfrom2013tothespringof2015,toldme.Hisoptimismissuchthathe
thinks,Wewillconfrontthis!Wewilldealwithit!Theresgottobeasolution.Wejustneedtofinditandleadpeople
there.Gordondoesnotsaythiswithadmiration.

WelandedatamilitaryairportinBerlin.KerrygotintoanEmbassycarandheadedtoameetingwiththeIsraeliPrime
Minister,BenjaminNetanyahu,whohappenedtobeinGermanytoseeChancellorAngelaMerkel.Inrecentweeks,there
hadbeenanalarminguptickinstreetviolenceinJerusalemandtheWestBankstabbings,shootings,rockthrowing,face-
offswithtroopsandatleastsomeofitwasduetorumorsthattheIsraeliswantedtoexertmorecontrolovertheTemple
Mount,intheOldCity,orwhatArabscalltheHaramal-Sharif,theNobleSanctuary.SomeIsraelisonthereligiousright
wanttobuildaThirdTempletheresomeArabsclaim,wrongly,thatthesite,nowdominatedbytheAlAqsaMosque,never
hadanyJewishhistoricalimportance.

KerrymetwithNetanyahuwiththemodestgoalofdiallingbacktherhetoricabouttheTempleMountonbothsides,getting
theIsraelistomakeitclearthatthecomplexstatusquowasnotgoingtochange.ButNetanyahuhadjustinfuriatedhimby
givingaspeechsuggestingthatthegrandmuftiofJerusaleminthethirtieswastheideologicalinspirationfortheFinal
Solution.HitlerdidntwanttoexterminatetheJewsatthetime,NetanyahutoldtheWorldZionistCongress,inlate
October.HewantedtoexpeltheJews.NetanyahusaidthemuftididntwantGermanJewstocometoPalestine,so,
instead,headvisedHitlertoburnthem.Themuftiwas,infact,anti-Semiticandpro-Nazi,butthenotionthathewasthe
ideologistoftheHolocaustwaspreposterous.
 Lately,IfeelliketheonlytimeIhavetomyselfiswhenIm
havingsexwithBrian.Buytheprint

AlthoughNetanyahuclarifiedhiscommentsonthemuftibeforearrivinginBerlin,Kerryscircledidnotseethe
performanceasanaberration.MostoftheministersinNetanyahuscabinetareontherecordopposingatwo-statesolution.
AmericanofficialsspeakofNetanyahuasmyopic,entitled,untrustworthy,routinelydisrespectfultowardthePresident,and
focussedsolelyonshort-termpoliticaltacticstokeephisright-wingconstituencyinline.Netanyahuseemsnottocareifhe
insultstheAdministration.RonDermer,hisambassadortotheU.S.,secretlyarrangedwithJohnBoehnerforNetanyahuto
speakbeforeCongresswithoutalertingtheWhiteHouseDannyDanon,hisenvoytotheU.N.,blamedObamaslackof
leadershipforTurkishandIranianaggressionandRanBaratz,whomNetanyahuappointedlastmonthashismediachief,
wroteonhisFacebookpagethatthePresidentwasanti-SemiticandthatKerryhadthementalabilitiesofatwelve-year-old.

KerrysometimesspeaksvaguelyoftryingyetagaintoforgeanIsraeli-PalestiniansettlementThereareworsethingsthan
gettingcaughttryingbuthislastattemptlefthimbadlydisillusioned.Hispubliccommentsnowmakeitclearthatonlyif
IsraelandthePalestinianscomeknockingwillhegetinvolvedinanegotiation.In2014,asKerryshuttledfromcapitalto
capital,oneIsraelicabinetministertoldme,Weareonlydoingthisforyou!MosheYaalon,Netanyahusdefenseminister,
wasquotedintheIsraelipresssaying,TheonlythingthatcansaveusisforJohnKerrytowinaNobelPrizeandleave
usinpeace.Kerry,Yaalonsaid,turnedupheredeterminedandactingoutofmisplacedobsessionandmessianicfervor.

TherelationshipfurthersouredwhenNetanyahubroughthiscampaignagainsttheIrannucleardealtotheflooroftheU.S.
Congress.ThefrustrationwiththeIsraelisonalotofissueshasbeensky-high,oneseniorU.S.officialtoldme,
characterizingthemoodatboththeWhiteHouseandtheStateDepartment.Americanofficialsarefrustratedinvarious
wayswiththePalestiniansaswell,but,astheofficialsaid,theydonthaveanypowerinthisdynamic.TheIsraelishaveall
thecards.

Asadiplomat,Kerryisduty-boundtodescriberawrealityinupholsteredplatitudes.Andso,afterhislongsessioninBerlin
withNetanyahu,hesaid,inavoicethathadbeenrenderedascratchywhisperbytoomanyhoursoftalking,thatthe
meetinglefthimcautiouslyencouraged.Hehopedtoresolveage-olddifferencesinafrozenconflict.Hewantedthe
partiestopullbackfromtheprecipiceandgodownaroadthattakespeoplesomewhere.Andsoon.

StateDepartmentaidessaidthatsourcesofKerrysexasperationwithNetanyahurangefromtheinjusticeofsettlement
buildingintheWestBanktothewayheemploysYitzhakMolcho,hislawyerandconfidant,tostifleeventhemost
inconsequentialnegotiation.KerrysspecialenvoyFrankLowensteintoldmethatKerrywillplaythroughthewhistle,and
persistwiththeIsraelisandthePalestiniansuntiltheendofhistimeinoffice,butheadded,Thewindowforatwo-state
solutionisclosing,thoughnoneofuswhoveworkedonitwillregretthatwetriedtosaveit.

KerrybelievesthatIsrael,alongwiththeoccupiedterritories,isheadedtowardbecomingaunitarystatethatisan
impossibleentitytomanage.Heisparticularlyconcerned,hesaid,thatthePalestinianAuthoritycouldcollapsethat,inthe
event,theP.A.sthirtythousandsecurityofficerswouldscatterandthatchaosandincreasinglyviolentclasheswithIsrael
wouldfollow.

IunderstandthepassionsthatarebehindallofthisIgetit,Kerrytoldme.Ifitwereeasy,itwouldhavebeendonea
longtimeago.Ihappentobelievethereisawayforward.Theresasolution.ItwouldbegoodforIsraelitdbegreatfor
thePalestiniansitdbegreatfortheregion.Peoplewouldmakesomuchmoney.Theredbesomanyjobscreated.There
couldbepeace.Andyouwouldbestrongerforit.BecausenobodythatIknoworhavemetintheWestBankisanxiousto
havejihadiscomein.

Thealternativeisyousitthereandthingsjustgetworse,Kerrywenton.TherewillbemoreHezbollah.Therewillbe
morerockets.Andtheyllallbepointedinonedirection.Andtherewillbemorepeopleontheborder.Andwhathappens
then?Youregoingtobeonebigfortress?Imean,thatsnotawaytolive.Itseemstomeitisfarmoreintelligentandfar
morestrategicwhichisanimportantwordheretohaveatheoryofhowyouaregoingtopreservetheJewishstateand
beademocracyandabeacontotheworldthateverybodyenvisionedwhenIsraelwascreated.

IaskedhimifhecouldimagineanendtotheStateofIsrael.

No,Idontbelievethatsgoingtohappen,hesaid.Itsjust,Whatisitgoingtobelike,isthequestion.Willitbea
democracy?WillitbeaJewishstate?Orwillitbeaunitarystatewithtwosystems,orsomedraconiantreatmentof
Palestinians,becausetoletthemvotewouldbetodilutetheJewishstate?Idontknow.Ihavenoanswertothat.Butthe
problemis,neitherdothey.Neitherdothepeoplewhoaresupposedtobeprovidinganswerstothis.Itisnotananswerto
simplycontinuetobuildintheWestBankandtodestroythehomesoftheotherfolksyouretryingtomakepeacewithand
pretendthatthatsasolution.

Intheevening,KerryflewfromBerlintoVienna,where,inmeetingswithhisRussian,Turkish,andSaudicounterparts,the
focuswouldturntoSyria.SomeofthereportersontheStateDepartmentbeatrecallwithnostalgiaatimewhenColin
PowellandCondoleezzaRiceregularlycametothebackoftheplanetobriefthem,oftenontherecord.Kerryisproneto
senatorialover-talkandtheoccasionalgafferecently,hehadtowalkbackaninfelicitousstatementthattherewasa
rationaletothemurdersoftheCharlieHebdostaff,asopposedtothemorerecentattacksinParis.WhiteHouseofficials
havemadeitclearthathisboutsofverbalindisciplineareunwelcome,andhistripstothebackoftheplaneareless
frequent.Recently,attheSabanForum,aMiddleEastconferenceinWashington,D.C.,MartinIndyk,Kerrysformeraide,
interviewedhimonstageandbeganbysaying,withasmile,thathewouldbetheonlyoneaskingquestions,becauseKerrys
stafferswereworriedaboutyouranswers.

TheStateDepartmentbeatistrying.Thereportersaresardinedintothebackoftheplaneforendlessflightsand,upon
arrival,spendhourswaitinginhotelandairportholdingrooms,interruptedbyburstsofstenography.WhileKerrymetwith
SergeiLavrov,hisRussiancounterpart,attheHotelImperial,wepeckedatthebirdseedofthepoolreport,acoupleof
preciselyquotednon-quotes.Thepoolreporterconcludedwiththisplaintivenote:Thatsit.Myrecorderwasrunningfora
totaloftwenty-twoseconds.

Butthetalkswereofrealsignificance.Kerrywastryingtopersuadehisinterlocutors,especiallytheSaudis,ofthewisdom
ofincludingIran,whichhasworkedwiththeRussianstopropupAssad,infuturetalks.ThedevelopmentsinSyriawere
clearenough:atleasttwohundredthousanddead,fourmillionrefugees,millionsmoredisplaced.Theregimebackedby
Iraniantroops,Hezbollahguerrillas,Russianairstrikesonrebeloutposts,andsupportfromtheIraqiShiitemilitiashas
regaineditsfootingandmaintainsaholdoveruptotwo-thirdsofthepopulation.ISISisunderincreasingattackfrom
coalitionairstrikesandKurdishgroundtroops,butithasmovedthefightabroad.
 Yourerighttheshippingisntfree.Theyvefoldedthe
expenseintothecostoftheitem.Buytheprint

ThedispiritingrealityofAmericanforeignpolicyinthetwenty-firstcenturyhasbeenneatlysummarizedinPoliticobyPhilip
Gordon,theformerN.S.C.official:InIraq,theU.S.intervenedandoccupied,andtheresultwasacostlydisaster.In
Libya,theU.S.intervenedanddidnotoccupy,andtheresultwasacostlydisaster.InSyria,theU.S.neitherintervenednor
occupied,andtheresultisacostlydisaster.Someforeign-policyexperts,fromLeonPanetta,theformerC.I.A.director,to
RichardHaass,thepresidentoftheCouncilonForeignRelations,predictthattheconflictsthathaveemergedfromtheArab
uprisingswillleadtoaThirtyYearsWar,aprotracted,regionalbloodlettingreminiscentofthereligiouswarsinCentral
EuropethatbeganwiththefragmentationoftheHolyRomanEmpire,in1618.

TheviolentswirlofuncertaintiesbringsoutthePresidentsnativecaution.ThemostconsequentialpoliticalactofObamas
earlycareerwasabriefappearance,in2002,atanantiwardemonstrationinFederalPlaza,indowntownChicago,wherehe
declaredthattheimpendinginvasionofIraqwasdumbandwouldrequireaU.S.occupationofundeterminedlength,at
undeterminedcost,withundeterminedconsequences.ThatspeechsethimapartfrombothKerryandClinton,who,as
senators,votedtogiveBushtherighttouseforceinIraq,anditsettheideologicaltemplateforhisforeignpolicy,notleast
onSyria.ValiNasr,aformerStateDepartmentadvisertoHillaryClintonandRichardHolbrooke,toldme,Obamahasnt
changedhispositionfrom2011.Heisalwaysconcernedthatitsafoolserrand,aslipperyslopetoanotherIraq,pouring
bloodandtreasureintoanotherconflict.

KerryssenioraidesarenothesitanttosaythatbothaschairmanoftheSenateForeignRelationsCommitteeandas
SecretaryofStatehehasdisagreedstronglywithObamaonSyria.Obamaprioritizesavoidinganyentanglementswhereit
isuncertainthatsuchaninterventionwillwork,aStateDepartmentofficialtoldme.Kerry,whoseesthatthecrisishas
threatenedthestabilityofJordan,Lebanon,andotherstatesintheregionandhasprovidedISISwithabase,inRaqqaand
Ramadi,has,theofficialsaid,muchmorefaithinourabilitytoavoidaslipperyslope.

FromthebeginningofthecivilianuprisingsinSyria,in2011,andtheregimesescalatingandbloodyreaction,manyof
Obamasadvisershavearguedforamoreaggressivepolicy:armingandfundingthemoderaterebelsairstrikeson
DamascustakingoutAssadshelicoptersandplanes,whichdropbarrelbombspackedwithshrapnel,explosives,and,
sometimes,chlorinetheestablishmentofsafezonesandano-flyzone.In2012,theC.I.A.director,DavidPetraeusthe
chairmanoftheJointChiefs,GeneralMartinDempseySecretaryofDefenseLeonPanettaSamanthaPower,whowas
thenanational-securityadviserandSecretaryofStateClintonpressedObamatosupportvettedrebelsagainsttheregime.
Kerrywhowasinfluencedbytherelativelysuccessful,ifbelated,interventionsintheBalkans,inthenineties,andalsoby
thecalamitousdecisionnottointerveneinRwandain1994joinedthischoruswhenhereplacedClinton.Butnoonecould
convinceObamathatdeeperinvolvementwouldavoidarepetitionoftheIraqfiasco.

KerrywasacriticalactorinthemosthumblingepisodeoftheSyriandrama.ObamahadwarnedAssadthathewouldbe
crossingaredlineifheusedchemicalweapons,sayingthatsuchanactwouldchangemycalculus.InAugust,2013,a
yearaftertheredlinewarning,Assadsforces,accordingtoWesternintelligenceservicesandanindependentU.N.
commission,firedrocketsarmedwithsarinonGhouta,asuburbofDamascus,killinghundreds.TheU.S.preparedto
attackwithcruisemissiles.InaspeechinsistingthatAssadgiveupallhischemicalarms,Kerryreferredtothelessonsof
theHolocaustandofRwanda.GeneralDempseysaid,Ourfingerwasonthetrigger.ObamawarnedofanAmerican
attack,althoughKerry,followingthePresidentsminimizinglead,allowedthatthestrikewouldbeunbelievablysmall.
Then,withoutconsultingKerry,Obamasteppedback,sayingthathewouldhavetogetcongressionalapprovalbeforean
attackonSyria.Hehadconcludedthatitwasworsetogotowarthantobeseenasweak.

ObamasaidessaythatthedebatesoverSyriaarealwaysoverthecostofanactionversusthecostofinaction.Ben
Rhodes,adeputynational-securityadviser,toldme,ThePresidenthasspentmoretimeonSyriathanonanyotherissuein
theSituationRoom,oftentestingdifferenttheoriesandpropositions.Butnoonehaseverbeenabletoanswerthesecond
andthirdquestions:IfyoudoX,thenwhat?IfyouweretotakemoreassertivemilitaryactionagainstAssad,whathappens
thedayafter,whenAssadisstillinplaceandwehavenotengagedmilitarilyevenmorerobustly?Theresanexpectationto
seeitthrough.ThereisanescalatorylogicthatleadstheU.S.totakeresponsibilityforSyria.Hesopentodifferent
proposals,butwheredotheylead?

WhenIspokewithPresidentObamalastyear,hemadeasimilarpoint.Itisverydifficulttoimagineascenarioinwhich
ourinvolvementinSyriawouldhaveledtoabetteroutcome,shortofusbeingwillingtoundertakeaneffortinsizeand
scopesimilartowhatwedidinIraq,hesaid.AndwhenIhearpeoplesuggestingthatsomehowifwehadjustfinanced
andarmedtheoppositionearlier,thatsomehowAssadwouldbegonebynowandwedhaveapeacefultransition,its
magicalthinking.

NearlyeveryoneItalkedtointheAdministrationconsideredtheredlineaftermathtobeadiplomaticfiasco.TheSyrian
governmentdid,however,giveupitsmainchemicalstockpileswhenitsallyRussiasteppedinandpressuredittodoso.
SergeiLavrov,theforeignminister,workedwithKerrytoclosethedeal.Meanwhile,Assadremainsinpower.The
Administration,whichstartedoutsayingthathemuststepaside,isnowwillingtoseeAssadplayatransitionalroleina
politicalsettlementbeforeleavingthestageatanundeterminedpoint.AsoneabashedU.S.officialtoldme,Themeaningof
Assadhastogohasevolved.

SohasKerrysviewofAssad.In2010,beforetheArabuprisings,KerrymetseveraltimeswithAssadinDamascus,at
Obamasrequest.TheAdministrationwantedKerrytoseewhatkindofSyrian-Israeliagreementhecouldhelpforge.Assad
expressedconcernthattheeconomicisolationofSyria,anditscripplingunemployment,wasbuildingupenormousstrain
andthattheregimecouldfalltoafundamentalist-ledrevolt.WalidMuallem,Assadsforeignminister,toldoneofKerrys
aides,Ifwedontsucceedinopeningupoureconomy,youllcomebackhereintenyearsandyoullmeetwithMullah
Assad.

AssadtoldKerrythat,inordertomakepeacewithIsrael,hehadtogetbacktheGolanHeights,territorylostinthe1967
war.Forthattobeconsidered,Kerryreplied,SyriawouldhavetoceasethetransitofarmsthroughSyriatoHezbollah,in
Lebanon,andtoHamas,inGaza.

Webasicallydeliveredhimaprettystrongmessageof,Youbetterstopthisorelse,Kerrytoldme.ButIalsoengaged
withhim,becausehewantedtotalkaboutanothersubjectarelationshipwithIsraelinthefuture.IdontthinkIveever
talkedaboutthispublicly,buthewasreadytomakeadealwithIsrael.AndtheproofofthatisaletterIstillhavethathe
wroteandsignedproposingastructurebywhichhewaswillingtorecognizeIsrael,haveanembassythere,makepeace,
dealwiththeGolan,etcetera.(ArepresentativeoftheSyriangovernmentdeniedthatAssadeverwrotesuchaletterhe
alsodeniedthatAssadtookanyoppressivemeasuresin2011.)SyriaaskedKerryforeconomicassistance,includinga
pipelinetoIraqandaidfortechnologyandhealthcare.WhenNetanyahuwastoldofthediscussions,hewasreluctant.Bibi
cametoWashington,andoneofthefirstthingsoutofhismouthintheOvalOfficewasIcantdothis.Imnotgoingto
Ijustcant.
 Oh,thosearethelobbyistswhogetusourgovernment
subsidies.Buytheprint

TheissuewasrenderedmootinMarch,2011,whentherevolutionbeganinSyria.AstheSyrianregimeincreaseditslevel
ofcrueltyfrommonthtomonthbeginningwiththepolicetorturingyoungprotestersandmovingontotheindiscriminate
killingofmanythousands,usingbarrelbombsalltalkofthesoft-spokenBritish-educatedophthalmologist,ofAssadas
thereformisthopeofSyria,waseclipsed.

Kerryshookhisheadatthememoryofit.AtdinnerinDamascus,AssadhadtoldKerryandHeinzabouthowhismother
couldnolongergotoalocalmosquedressedinaskirt.Hetalkedabouthowfemalecollegeclassmates,professional
women,werenowinhijab.Wewanttobeasecularcountry,Assadsaid,accordingtoKerry.Wedontwanttobe
inundatedbythis.

Kerrywenton,Ihadanimpressionthatthisguyhadseriousbusinessplans,growthplans,developmentplans,wantedto
change.WhenIpressedhimtodescribeAssadintermsofhiscrimes,hebackedoff.Youknowwhat?Iwanttotryto
talkcommonsensetohimthroughthisprocess,andIdonotwanttogetintoanyitsjusttheinappropriatemomentfor
meto...

BothKerryandHeinzsaidtheyhadheardfromtheirSyriansourcesthatAssadsmotherorhisbrother,Maheral-Assad,the
familyenforcerfigureandanArmygeneralwhocommandstheliteFourthArmoredDivisionandtheRepublicanGuard,
urgedBashartocrackdownhardontheprotestersotherwise,thefamilyandtheAlawiteregimewerefinished.Kerry
thinksofAssadasthetoxicproductofhisfamilyandhispoliticalenvironment,akindofrationalautocratwhosetoutto
reformhiscountrybut,whenfacedwiththeprospectofjoiningthelistofdeposedArabdictators,actedinthepredictably
monstrouswayofhisfather,who,in1982,slaughteredtwentythousandpeopleinthecityofHamatoputdownaMuslim
Brotherhooduprising.

Assad,Kerrysaid,madeenormous,giganticmistakes,andIthinktheyaredisqualifyingmistakes.Kerrycontinuestouse
bloodlesstermslikemistakesbecausehehopeshewillsoonbedealingwithAssadeitherthroughRussiaandIranor
throughthemedia,orevenanegotiatingteamfromDamascus.Eitherway,hisjob,asheseesit,istopersuade.The
AmericanpositionisstillthatAssadmustgo,but,inordertokeepRussiaandIraninthediscussion,ObamaandKerryhave
fudgedthequestionofwhen.

IbelieveSyriacanbeputbacktogetherstill,Kerrytoldme.ButIthinkthisisthelastshottotrytodoit.Ithinkthatif
youcantdothisitcouldbreakupintoenclavesandIraqcouldImean,youcouldseealotofthingshappen.Thisisnot
theThirtyYearsWartoday.But,ifallowedtofesterunabatedbythepeaceprocessorbyasolution,thiscouldbecomea
kindofThirtyYearsWar,becauseitcoulddevelopintoabona-fide,full-fledgedSunni-Shiaconflagration.

ViennaisasceneofsatisfactionforKerry.ItiswherehesigneddocumentsforanuclearsettlementwithMohammedJavad
Zarif,Iransforeignminister.ObamahadrampedupeconomicsanctionsandlaunchedcyberattacksagainstIranwell
beforeKerryjoinedtheAdministration,butwhenKerrywasstillasenatorhewasinvolvedinaseriesofsecretAmerican-
Iranianmeetings,brokeredbySultanQaboosbinSaid,ofOman,whichpreparedtheway.

Thetensioninthenegotiatingroomswassometimesunbearable.OppositiontothetalksragedfromJerusalemtoCapitol
Hill,andZarifmadeitknown,bothasatacticandasamatteroffact,thathefacedimmensepressureinTehranfromhard-
linerswhowantedtobreakoffnegotiations.Thesubtextallalongwaspossiblewar,theStateDepartmentofficialtoldme.
Itwasdiscussedopenly.DuringoneexchangeinLausanne,whenthetwosideswerearguingoverFordow,asecret
undergrounduranium-enrichmentsite,Kerryasked,Whydoyoucaresomuch?Youhavefacilitieselsewhere.

ZarifsaidthattheFordowinstallation,whichwasbuiltunderamountainnearthecityofQom,wasaninsurancepolicyin
caseIsraelortheUnitedStatesattackedIransothersites.Kerryreplied,Idontwanttobecrudeaboutit,butthatwont
saveyou.TheAmericansintheroomknewthatKerrywasreferringtoathirty-thousand-poundbombcalledtheMassive
OrdnancePenetrator,whichiscapableofdestroyingafacilitylikeFordow.

Theagreementcould,intime,collapseifIraniscaughtviolatingit,butObamaandKerryweremakingabetthattheycould
bothpreventanuclearIranandempowermoremodernelementsintheIranianliteswhomay,afterthepassingofAli
Khamenei,theSupremeLeader,andhishard-linecadreofayatollahs,liberalizetheregime.

InVienna,inthegaudy,chandelieredhauntsoftheImperial,Kerrywasnowtryingtobuildonthattreaty.Afteralongday,
heemergedfromhissessionswiththeRussians,Turks,andSaudismutteringsomediplomaticwordglobules:themeetings
wereconstructiveandproductiveandsucceededinsurfacingsomeideas,whichIamnotgoingtosharetoday,andwarm
congratulationstoAustriaontheoccasionofitsnationalday,and,asforhowlongAssadwillstayinpower,wecanagree
todisagree.

Thetalksweremoreeventfulthanheleton.Asalways,sometimehadtobeallottedforposturingandventing.Adelal-
Jubeir,theSaudiforeignminister,repeatedlyremindedtheroomofAssadsbutchery,referringtohimHomericallyasthe
manwhoskilledthreehundredthousandpeople.Lavrov,theRussianforeignminister,scoffedattheideaofamoderate
oppositionandrefusedtoacceptaspecifictimelineforAssadtostepdown.AnditwouldnotbeapartyiftheRussiansdid
notremindeveryoneofthechaoscreatedbytheAmericaninvasionofIraq.

Ihearitallthetime,Kerrytoldme.IhearitfromLavrov.Imean,weworkprofessionallyandwegoatthingsina
constructiveway,buthedoesntletmeforgetLibyaorEgyptorIraq,andthecolorrevolutionsinUkraine,Georgia,
andotherstateswheretheKremlinleadershipbelievestheU.S.hasfomentedrevolt.Irollwithit,butitsimportantto
understandit.Imean,ifyouregoingtotrytoworksomethingwithRussia,youneedtounderstandthedegreetowhich
thesethingsmatter.

Thefarragoofcompetingnationalinterests,thelegaciesofhistoricalblunders,thefantasticalcastofcharacters,thesheer
bloodlust,theprospectofregionalifnotglobalconflictallconspiretomakeKerrystaskinSyrianearlyimpossible.But
now,afteryearsofmoribunddiplomacyinthefaceofhorrificbloodshedandwavesofterrifiedrefugees,heseemedtobe
makingincrementalprogress.Notonlywereheandhisnegotiatingpartnerstalkingtheywerealsoheadingtowardgetting
Iranintheroom.Agatheringofagroupofunthinkablecountries,Lavrovcalledit.

Certainly,therewasagreatersenseofurgencyinWashington,inMoscow,inEurope,andintheGulf.TheIrannuclear
deal,despiteoppositioninIsrael,inSaudiArabia,andintheU.S.Congress,boostedthecredibilityofAmericandiplomacy,
andofKerryinparticular.VladimirPutininordertopropuptheSyrianregime,regainleverageintheMiddleEast,and
restoreasenseofpost-SovietRussiaasaworldpowerhasreturnedinforcetotheSyrianissue,unleashingwarplaneson
rebelpositions,inthenameofthefightagainstISIS.Withterrorattacksabroadandtheinfluxofhundredsofthousandsof
refugees,theSyriancrisisisnolongeraforeignmatterforEuropeortheUnitedStatesithascometoseemamatterof
nationalsecurity.
 Frankly,wereataloss,sowerelookingforsomeone
youngandstupidtotelluswhattodo.Buytheprint

Backontheplane,Kerrysatperchedontheedgeofhisbed,andtoldme,Weretryingtobreakacrazystalemate.There
wasawearydesperationinhisexpression.HeknewthattheRussiansandtheIranianscouldnotendorsetheideathat
Assadwasfinishedeveniftheybelievedthat,ultimately,hewas.Therecould,however,betalksaboutpolitical
transition.Noone,Kerrywassaying,wantedthegovernmentinstitutionstocrash,thewaytheyhadinIraq.And,if
youdontwantthegovernmenttocrash,youcanthaveAssadgoboom.

KerrycouldnotyetknowthetruemotivationofPutinandtheIranianleadershipinagreeingtosendemissariestotalksin
Vienna:Aretheythereonlytoprop[Assad]upandforever,oraretheytherehelpingtotrytoengineersomethingto
happen?AndsoIvebeentryingtoputthattothetest.

Finally,hisvoicegaveoutIcouldnolongerhearhimabovetheenginesofthejet,andheappearedtobeinpain.He
wincedbywayoffarewellandleftmetoreturntothebackoftheplane.

WhenKerrywasappointedbyObamatoheadtheStateDepartment,hemadeapointofmeetingwithhispredecessors.As
ayoungman,hedloathedHenryKissinger.Tohim,theNixonAdministrationrepresentedallthatwasmostcynicalabout
Americanpolitics.

KerryreturnedfromVietnamadecoratedveteranand,ashetoldtheTimes,anangryyoungman.Hebecamealeaderof
VietnamVeteransAgainsttheWar,and,withhisforthrightstyleofconfessionandoutrage,hewontheadmirationof
antiwarleaders.OnMeetthePress,Kerrysaidthathehadcommittedthesamekindofatrocitiesasthousandsofother
soldiershavecommitted:shootingsinfree-firezones,harassment,search-and-destroymissions,theburningofvillages.
Wearinghisfatiguesandhisdecorations,Kerrytestified,inApril,1971,fortwohoursbeforetheSenateForeignRelations
Committee,andaskedaquestionthatwasquotedaroundtheworld:Howdoyouaskamantobethelastmantodiein
Vietnam?Howdoyouaskamantobethelastmantodieforamistake?

Kerrysaid,SomeonehastodiesoPresidentNixonwontbe,andthesearehiswords,thefirstPresidenttoloseawar.
TheNixonAdministration,hesaid,hasdoneustheultimatedishonor.Theyhaveattemptedtodisownusandthesacrifices
wemadeforthiscountry.
Nixonwasrepelledand,atsomelevel,impressed.Talkingonthephonewithhiscounsel,CharlesColson,hesaidthatKerry
wassortofaphony,isnthe?ButevenH.R.Haldeman,Nixonschiefofstaff,toldthePresident,Hedidasuperbjobon
itattheForeignRelationsCommitteeyesterday.AKennedy-typeguy,helookslikeaKennedy,andhe,hetalksexactlylikea
Kennedy.

ButwhileKerrymadehisnameinaradicalvoice,hewasalwaysamanoftheestablishment.Morethananydiplomator
politicianthissideofBillClinton,hehasanabidingfaithinthevalueofpersonalrelationshipsandofhiscapacityto
persuade.Allhehastodoisgetthepartiesinaroomandhecantlose.Obama,bycontrast,hasnomorecultivated
relationshipswithforeignleadersthanhehaswithRepublicanleaders.WhereObamaisskeptical,Kerryisalmost
sentimentalinhisoptimism.HehasevenmadehispeacewithHenryKissinger:Iseekhisadvicehesabrilliantguy.He
recountedalunchthattheyhadrecently,atwhichKissingertoldhim,ThedifferencebetweenyouandmeisthatIthink
thatpersonalrelationsdontmattermuch.Ithinkinterestsmatter.Kerryreplied,Ithinkinterestsmatter,ofcourse,butI
thinkpersonalrelationscanhelpmatterstheycanbeinfluential.

NooneseemstoinspireKerrysoutrage,includingtheworstofhisnegotiatingpartners.Ithinktheywanttobevaluedfor
whotheyareandunderstoodforwheretheycomefromandwhattheirlifeisabout,hetoldme.Ithinkifpeoplehavea
sensethatyouknowwhattheyreabout,theycanbuildsometrustwithyou....Ithinkifyoucanshowthemthatyou
understandwhattheirchallengeis,howtheyhavetosellitathomeorhowtheyhaveto,whatitmeans,thesacrificethey
mighthavetomaketodoX,Y,orZ.

Asasenator,Kerry,whogrewupworshippingJ.F.K.,initiallysufferedthroughavexedrelationshipwithhisseniorpartner,
EdwardKennedy.TheKennedypeopleprivatelymockedKerryasstiff,pompous,ashowhorse,asMichaelJaneway,the
formereditoroftheBostonGlobe,oncedescribedKerrytohisface.TheKerrypeopleresentedKennedyforgrabbing
creditforeveryjointinitiative.But,withtime,KerrygainedrespectintheSenate,particularlyforseriousworkonissues
rangingfromforgingdiplomaticrelationswithVietnam(alongwithJohnMcCain)tohisinvestigationintothewaytheBank
ofCreditandCommerceInternationalhelpedGeneralManuelNoriega,ofPanama,launderhisdrugmoney.

SometimesKerrycouldplaymaddeninglytotype.Duringthe2004campaign,aninterviewerforGQaskedhim,Whats
thebestbottleofwineyouveeverhad?AslickerpolmighthavementionedasuperbFloridaMerlotoranunforgettable
OhioPinot,butevenanovicewouldknowtochooseadomesticwine,preferablyoneinabattlegroundstate.Probablya
Latour1961,Kerryanswered,thusassuringhiscampaigntheBordeauxprimary.

Butheishardlyaprep-schoolcartoon.Duringthecampaign,forexample,theGlobediscoveredboththatKerrys
grandfatherwasJewishandthathecommittedsuicide,twofactsthatKerryhadbeenunawareof.Hisfamilycamefrom
distinguishedlineagesbuthadlittlemoney.Kerrysfirstmarriagewastroubledhiswife,JuliaThorne,sufferedfromsevere
depressionandwrotethathermindwasravagedbycorrodingvoices,mybodydefeatedbybone-rattlingpanics,Isaton
theedgeofmybedminutesfromtakingmylife.WhenhewasseparatedfromThorne,KerryhadwhatTeresawouldcall
hisgypsyperiod,withnofixedaddress,hustlingtoseehistwodaughters,inBoston,whilehewasworkingin
Washington.(Thornediedofcancerin2006.)

OneofthegoverningclichsaboutKerryisthathisfourmonthsofcombatinVietnamandhisreturnasaleaderofthe
antiwar-veteransmovementshapedhiscareerasalegislatorandadiplomat.Kerrytoldmethewarshowedhimthatwe
canmakesometerriblemistakeswhenwedontthinkitthroughright.IcanrememberbeinginVietnamwatchingMelvin
Laird,SecretaryofDefense,flyingovermeaswewentdowntodosomecompletelystagedinvasionbecausetheoriginal
invasionplacehadtoomanyVietcong.Thesekindsofthingsstickoutatyou.ItsthereasonthatJosephHellerandCatch-
22haveparticularmeaningforalotofus.

WhatVietnamdidnotinstillinKerryisasenseofideologicalconsistency.CampaigningfortheSenatein1984,hedeclared
thathewouldhavevotedtocanceltheB-1bomber,theF-15,theTridentmissilesystem,andmanyotherweaponssystems,
onlytosaylaterthatsuchvoteswouldhavebeenill-advised,evenstupid.HedisagreedwiththeReagan
AdministrationsadventuresinCentralAmericaandGeorgeH.W.Bushsdecisiontobuildaninternationalcoalitionand
repelSaddamHusseinfromKuwait,in1991.ButhesupportedinterventioninKosovoand,in2002,withtorturedlogic,
votedforGeorgeW.BushsinvasionofIraq:Imean,IsupporteddisarmingSaddamHussein,butIwascriticalofthe
Administrationandhowitdiditsdiplomacyandsoforth.Thenhevotedagainsttheeighty-seven-billion-dollar
appropriationtofundreconstruction,aswellasmilitaryoperations,inIraqandAfghanistan.
 Thisnextsongsaboutpain.September5,2005Buythe
print

HealwaystoldmehewantedtobeinformedbyVietnambutneverimprisonedbyit,DavidWade,whowasaSenateaide
toKerryand,untilrecently,hischiefofstaffattheStateDepartment,toldme.Vietnam,rather,wasanemotional
touchstone.OntripswithfriendstotheVietnamMemorial,Kerrypointedouttheengravednamesofsoldierswhodiedafter
theParispeacetalksbegan.Hewouldtalkabouthowpeoplediedwhiletheyarguedovertheshapeofthenegotiating
table,Waderecalled.

IfIraqandthegeneralfailureoftheArabSpringtaughtKerryanything,itisagreaterwarinessoftheideaofdemocratic
crusades.Havinganelectiondoesnotmakeademocracy,hetoldme.WelearnedthatwithHamasnottoolongago.And
Idontthinkwevealwayspracticedthatverycarefully,andIthinkweneedtopracticeitverycarefully,frankly.Ifpeople
areonapathandmakinglegitimatemovesandchoices,Imcontenttonotpushthecurvebeyonditsabilitytobend.AndI
thinkwehavetobesmarteraboutthat.

AskedwhethertheidealismofWoodrowWilsonwastoopowerfulastraininAmericanforeignpolicy,hereplied,Yeah,a
littlebit,probably.Imean,IloveWilsonandIloveWilsonianidealism,butitsveryidealistic.

Inthenexttwodays,Kerrykeptuphispace.First,heflewtoAmman,wherehemetwithKingAbdullahandMahmoud
Abbas,thePalestinianleader.NeithertheJordaniansnorthePalestinianswereinanymoodtomeetwithNetanyahu,butthe
issuewasviolenceinJerusalemandtheWestBankand,inKerryspeak,howtobringdownthetemperature.The
meetings,particularlywiththeJordanians,weredelicatetheKingneededtoshowhissubjectsthatheretainedinfluence
overtheTempleMount.AndthepressconferencethatKerryheld,alongsidetheJordanianforeignminister,atanairportin
Amman,wasaneatlychoreographedjigofindirection.Atonepoint,Kerry,whohaddonehisparttoexpressexcruciating
evenhandednessincounsellingboththePalestiniansandtheIsraelistoratchetdowntheincitement,watchedwithstolid
irritationastheJordanianforeignminister,NasserJudeh,staggeredoffscript.Finally,Kerryscribbledanoteandhandedit
toJudeh,whoblinkedafewtimesandwrappedthingsup.Butnotbeforeremarkingontheobvious:Asalwaysinthispart
oftheworld,thingshaveatendencytoerupt.

ThepressconferencedidnotrevealthatKerryandJudehhadcalledNetanyahuandpersuadedhimtodeclarepubliclythat
theIsraeligovernmenthadnointentionofchangingthestatusoftheTempleMountwhichhedidinavideoonFacebook.
ButthiswasonlyafterhoursofcajolingandflyspeckingstatementswithNetanyahuandhisaidesaprocessthatcaused
theStateDepartmentofficialtojokethathehadaP.T.S.D.flashbackfromthefailed2013-14peacetalks.

Kerrywalkedtohisplane,whichtookoffintothedarkeningskyforSaudiArabia.Wearrivedlateintheevening,which
wasperfect,becauseSaudiofficials,likemoonflowers,bloomatnight.Theforeignminister,Adelal-Jubeir,greetedKerry
onthetarmac.Therewasanappropriatelymasculineembrace,thepoolreporternoted.Theyeachgrabbedtheothers
upperarm.AndthetraditionalArabkissoneachcheek,thoughtherewasnoactualskincontact.Youcouldsayitwasmore
ofanairkiss.

Aftertalkingforawhileattheairport,KerryandJubeirgotincarsandheadedtoDiriyahFarm,thecountryresidenceof
theSaudiking,Salman.SalmanhasbeenonthethroneonlysincethedeathofAbdullah,inJanuary,butheisseventy-nine
andinspottyhealthhereadshistalkingpointsoffaniPad.Intelligenceagenciesarealreadyatworktryingtosortoutwho
mightsucceedhim.

KerryenteredanopulentreceptionareathatthepoolreporteraptlydescribedasasunkenlivingroomthesizeofanN.H.L.
rink.Aidesinrobessatalongthewalls.Glanceatthemen,thepoolernoted,andyouknowthatithasbeenalongtime
sinceRichardBurtonthenineteenth-centuryBritishexplorerobservedthathehadneverseenafatmaninthedesert.
Finally,KerrymettheKing,inasmallerroom.

Imhappytoseeyou,theKingsaid,throughhistranslator.

Imhappytoseeyou,Kerryreplied.Thisismyfavoritepalace.Ilovethisplace.

Thisisouroriginalhometown,theKingsaid.

WhenKerrybecameSecretary,theSaudiswerestillangryattheAdministrationfor,intheireyes,betrayingareliableally-
autocratlikeHosniMubarak.WhatiftheHouseofSaudcametosuchapass?TheSaudiswerealsodismayedbyObamas
reluctancetoattackSyria.Turkial-Faisal,theformerdirectorofSaudiintelligenceandamemberoftheroyalfamily,said,in
2013,thatObamasfailuretofollowthroughonhisredlinewarningwouldbefunnyifitwerenotsoblatantly
perfidious.

Thefocusofthemeeting,forKerry,wastonaildownwhathadbeenraisedinViennathedaybefore,persuadingtheKing
toincludeIraninthetalksonSyria.TheKingssecuritycouncilincludingtheforeignminister,theCrownPrince,the
deputyCrownPrince,theheadofintelligencelistenedintentlyasthetwomentalked.Salmanseemedtoleavethequestion
ofIranalittlemoreopenandtoldKerrythatheshouldnowmeetwiththesecurityteam.Kerrysteamwashopeful,
thinkingthatSalmanhadgiventhemroomtomaneuver.

WiththeKinggone,theSaudiadvisers,despitetheirritualexpressionsofdistasteforIran,agreedtobeinthesameroom
withZarifatfuturemeetingsinVienna.Thiswouldnotbefirst-levelnewsaroundtheworld,necessarily,andthewarwent
on,andthewavesofrefugeeskeptarrivinginJordanandTurkeyandontheshoresofLesvos.But,forKerry,thesewere
thekindsofmovesapawnseizingacentersquarethatjustmightleadtoanendgame.

TheflightfromRiyadhtoAndrewswasscheduledtotakefifteenhours,witharefuellingstopinIreland.AtShannon,the
planepulleduptoadesertedterminal.DressedinjeansandaYalehoodie,Kerrysettleddownatatablenearthebarand
orderedahottoddyandaplateofsalmonsandwiches.

Damn,thesearegood,hesaid.

Theproprietorofthebar,whointroducedhimselfasDeclan,presentedKerrywithabottleofIrishwhiskeyandadramof
advice.

MyfatherdiedwhenIwasjustafewyearsoldandmymotherdidntdrink,Declansaid,butwheneverIwassickshe
wouldtakeaspoonfulofthisandputitinhotwater.Workslikeacharm.

Kerrysmiledprofessionally,buthewaslongpastcharminganyone.Hewasexhausted,andtherewaslittlelefttohisvoice.
YethekepttalkingashestoleglancesataManchesterUnitedgameontheTVabovethebar,heobsessedaboutthenext
weekstriptoVienna,theplayersatthetable,whatwaspossible.

Asadiplomat,HillaryClintonwinscreditinsidetheAdministrationforvisitingahundredandtwelvecountriesandhelpingto
transformAmericasimageintheworldafterthecatastrophicBushyears.SheledeffortstoopenrelationswithBurma,
brokereda2012ceasefirebetweenIsraelandHamasinGaza,anddraftedeconomicsanctionsonIran.Butshewasas
restrainedinherambitionsasshewasdisciplined.Kerry,bycontrast,isconsideredrelentless,sometimestoafault.Thereis
noconcealinghiseagernesstomakeadealtoacritic,hisstyleisreminiscentofthecustomerwhosternlytellsthe
salesman,Imnotleavinghereuntilyousellmeacar.

Mycareerdoesntreflectwhatmypassionsareasmuchas
wheremyhealthinsuranceis.December19,2005Buythe
print

BenRhodes,thedeputynational-securityadviser,saidthatthePresidentappreciatesKerryswillingnesstodiveinwithout
knowinghowthestoryisgoingtoend.YourenotgoingtoachieveanIrandealwithoutthat.Kerryhatesbeingcutoutof
theaction.Hewas,Rhodesadmitted,annoyedthattheopeningtoCubathisyearhadalmostnothingtodowiththeState
Department.Thatwastheonlywayitwasgoingtogetdone,Rhodessaid.ThatwastheCubanpreference.They
wantedtodealwiththeWhiteHouse.

ButifthereistobeanykindofdiplomaticprogressinSyriaitwilldependlargelyonKerryandhisnegotiatingpartners.A
weekafterprevailingontheSaudistositatthesametablewithIran,hereturnedtoVienna.Multilateralmeetings
customarilybeginwitharoundofopeningstatementsfromeverypartyintheroom,andZarifandJubeir,theIranianand
Saudiforeignministers,laidbaretheirradicallydifferentnarratives.IntalkswiththeU.S.,ZarifhadremindedKerryofthe
C.I.A.sroleinthe1953overthrowofMohammedMossadegh,theIranianPrimeMinister,andnowheremindedJubeirthat
fifteenofthe9/11hijackerswerefromSaudiArabia.Jubeir,forhispart,hadalreadyremarkedonIransroleinterrorismin
theregion.TheAmericansmighthavefoundallthisamusinghaditnotbeenreminiscentoftheworstmomentsofthe
nucleartalks.WhenthesubjectshiftedtoSyria,theatmospherehardlylightened.Thetwoblamedeachotherforfomenting
fundamentalismandexploitingthechaoseverywhereintheregion.

Severaltimes,theAmericandelegationwonderedifZariforJubeirorbothwouldwalkout.Astheafternoonworeon,one
foreignminister,whowasgrowingexasperated,turnedtooneofKerrysaidesandsaid,Whenishishardstop?
meaning,whendoesKerryhavetoleaveforhisnextflight?

Notuntilten,theaidesaid.

Theforeignministersighed.Themeetinglastedsevenhours.

Thevictoriesweresmall.Inthecommuniqu,IranandSaudiArabiaallowedthemselvestobelistedtogetherasparticipants
afirst.Thedocumentalsocarrieddog-whistlelanguageabouttransitioninSyriabutwithoutatimelineforAssads
departure.ItmentionedtheneedtopreservetherightsofallSyrians,whichwasmeanttoassuretheAlawiteminority,
whichrulesSyria,thattherewouldbenoslaughterifAssadgivesuppower.AnyelectionwouldhavetoincludetheSyrian
diaspora,whichwouldlowerAssadsoddsofwinning.

Thereiseveryreasontobeskepticalabouttheeffort.WhatroleswillthewarringpartiesinSyriaplay?HowcanRussiaand
TurkeypossiblywalktowardacommongoalaftertheTurksshotdownaRussianbomber?Therebelsaredeeplyfractured
whatsinthetalksforthem?Whorepresentsthem?UnderwhatcircumstanceswouldAssad,who,thankstoRussia,is
nowinastrongerposition,stepaside?IfheisreplacedbyanotherfigureintheAlawiteregime,whywouldSunnifactions
acceptthatperson?And,ifthereareelections,whatwouldhappenifAssadtheultimaterecruitingtoolforISISwins?
WhywouldthejihadimilitiaJabhatal-Nusralaydownarms?

Therewillbemoremeetingsinhotelconferencerooms,asthewarcontinuesandISISmakesitsplans.But,asKerrysteam
wasquicktopointout,thishadbeenacompletelymoribundareaofdiplomacyfortheprevioustwoyears.Whenthe
meetingendedandKerryreadoutthelanguageofthecommuniqu,therewasapplause.

Notcelebratory,exactly,butsignificant,oneaidetoldme.Wellseewhereitgoes.

Intheweekssince,Kerryhasremainedaloft.Oneday,hisplanesettledinSamarkand,wherehepatientlyenduredaforty-
five-minutelecturefromthedictatorofUzbekistan.Thenextday,hewasinAshgabat,thesurreal,peoplelesscapitalof
Turkmenistan,ahermeticstatewherethepost-Sovietdictatorrenamedthedaysoftheweekanddevotedanationaldayto
themuskmelon.KerryhadflowntoSantiagototakepartinaconferencetosavetheworldsoceans.ThenhewasinParis,
inthewakeoftheterroristattackattheBataclanconcerthall,tojointalksdesignedtorescuetheearthfromoverheatingto
thepointofglobalcatastrophe.

Iabsolutelylovethisjob,hetoldmemorethanonce.Itissomuchfun.

Veryoccasionally,hestealsawaytorelax(togotothegym,toattendtheHarvard-Yalefootballgame)orjusttoreflect.
Whenheretires,Kerrysaid,hellwriteabookandstayinvolvedsomehowinpublicaffairs,particularlyenvironmental
issues.Buthedoesntthinkaboutretirement.ThebutcheryinSyriagoeson,theMiddleEastisinastateofdissolution.At
dinnerathishouse,Kerrywastalkingyetagainabouthisoptimism,theprospectforaceasefire,theendofAssad.Iasked
whatwouldcomenext.TherearentanyThomasJeffersonswaitingtoassumepower.

Idontknow,hesaid.MaybeAlexanderHamiltonis,whoknows?Helaughedandsaidtherewasnoreasonthat
someonefromtheseculareducatedlitecouldnotemerge:IthinkthenotionthattheophthalmologistfromLondonis
somehowtheonlyguywhocanrunSyriaisinsultingtoSyrians.

OnVeteransDay,hewenttoArlingtonNationalCemeterytovisitthegraveofoneoftheclosestfriendshelostinVietnam
RichardPershing,thegrandsonofGeneralJohnJ.Pershing,thecommanderofAmericanforcesduringtheFirstWorld
War.Whenhegotthere,hesawthattherewasacrowdaroundBlackJackPershingsgrave.Ratherthanattractattention,
heduckedbehindatreeandchattedforawhilewithamilitarybuglerwhowastheretoplayTaps.Afterthecrowd
dispersed,Kerrywalkedinhispained,amblingwayalongtherowsofgraves,countlessgraves,stoneafterstonemarking
warafterwar.

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