California’s economy grew robustly during the past decade even as state-imposed environmental standards to combat climate-change helped lower greenhouse gas emissions. But authors of a report released Tuesday cautioned that the future might not be so rosy: They found that transportation-related emissions have begun to rise due in part to longer commute times for California workers who can’t afford to live in the cities where they work.
The report cautioned that the affordable housing issue must be addressed by policymakers for the state to meet its ambitious longer term emissions goals.
Since 2006, when former Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger signed the state’s landmark climate-change bill, greenhouse gas emissions have dropped by 12 percent per capita and the state’s gross domestic product has grown by about $5,000 per person – double the national average, according to the California Green Innovation Index released by Beacon Economics and Next 10, an organization founded by venture capitalist F. Noel Perry. This year’s green innovation index is the ninth from the organization.
However, a strong economy and high employment combined with a lack of affordable housing near to the places where people work could have been the reason for an increase in transportation-related emissions from 2014 to 2015, Perry said. Emissions from transportation alone rose 2.7 percent statewide during that period, the study found
“The California economy is very robust with strong job growth,” he said. “Although California’s footprint continues to shrink even as its economy continues to thrive … we’re seeing a rise in transportation emissions due to state’s housing crisis.”
Adam Fowler, a research manager at Beacon Economics and one of the authors of the index, said that in order for (Californians) to get to their place of employment they have to increase their commute time.
“As we move forward the housing crisis is very much part of our concerns with respect to transportation emissions,” he said.
The study was released amid a growing clash between the federal government and state over how to approach environmental regulations and their effect on the economy.
President Donald Trump has called environmental regulations “job killing” and in June began the process of withdrawing the U.S. from the Paris Climate Accord, saying the agreement “vastly diminished economic production.” Days later, California Gov. Jerry Brown traveled to China to reiterate the state’s commitment to reducing greenhouse gases.
For Fowler, the different approaches amount to governing by anecdote versus data-driven governance.
“Capitalism drives innovation,” Fowler said. “We’re seeing a lot of that transition in our energy space, especially in the renewable front. This talking point that one job staying stable or in touch for all of eternity is just foolish.”
The index focused on California’s economic growth and increased environmental regulation, highlighting that in the state job growth outpaced the rest of the country, with employment gains of 27 percent since 2006, in particular focusing on growth in new sectors. In California, for every fossil fuel-related job there are 8.5 renewable energy jobs; in the rest of the country there are 2.5 renewable energy jobs for every one fossil-fuel position.
“I think it makes a lot of sense that environmental preservation and protection goes hand-in-hand with economic growth,” said UC Irvine Professor Seven Allison, an evolutionary biologist and ecologist.
“Unless you’re trying to make major changes to our business structures you can totally have environmental protection and economic growth and even accelerate that growth,” Allison said. “If you are developing technology for environmental improvement, you think about electric cars, that’s a new sector that’s going to be promoted. The reason the electric car is available and affordable is California’s regulatory environment and incentivizing green technology.”
In that arena, the Los Angeles-Orange County area is leading the charge. The index found that the Los Angeles-Long Beach-Anaheim area ranked highest in the state in the number of clean vehicle rebates with 17,595 in 2016, a small decline from 2015. The region was followed closely by the San Francisco and San Jose metro areas.
Southern California also saw a boost in the number of green technology patents filed last year, with 1,128 filed last year, a 46 percent increase compared with 2015.
Los Angeles, Orange County and Inland Empire areas also took top spots for residential solar power.
Southern California continued to lag in terms of commute times with the Riverside-San Bernardino-Onterio areas ranking worst in the state, followed closely by San Francisco-Oakland-Hayward and then the Los Angeles-Orange County area. Researchers attributed this to skyrocketing housing costs that have squeezed out people from the places they work and spend their leisure time. Addressing a shortage of housing will be an important step in the state meeting its emission reduction goals, Perry said.
“I think there’s a growing consensus across the state, housing is so much at a local level,” Perry said. “I see slowly, some positive changes, but it is going to take time. It is critically important. Housing is inextricably related to emissions. That has to be addressed. They’re two problems that run side-by-side and are absolutely connected.”
