Automation and income inequality go well together so long as you want more of both. Although some experts say that "highly creative" such as "artists, musicians, computer programmers, architects, [and] advertising specialists" have a natural resistance, even many professionals and white collar workers are vulnerable to replacement.
But blue-collar workers could be among the hardest hit. One of the target categories, according to many, is truck driving., as it is "all but obsolete."
The glass-half-full theory is that workers could transition to better-paying and more fulfilling jobs. But that's an old premise, floated for generations as machines increasingly replaced people. The displaced workers never get the training as companies don't want to waste any of the money they've recouped by cost cuts and politicians have yet to have a big effective impact on the problem. Had they, the political atmosphere in the U.S. would be entirely different.
Despite all the dire warnings, and although drivers will be replaced, the future is far brighter than critics — and I've been one — have thought. Earlier this year I reflected on my own experiences in the industry (in my youth I drove a truck and delivered furniture for some years) and spoke with experts. Although self-driving trucks are under development and have been tested, like the one an Uber division sent on a 120-mile beer run in Colorado, a number of factors make fully automated trucks difficult to implement.
Trucking is more than driving
Truckers are responsible for reviewing and packing loads, documenting conditions of contents, guarding against theft, and much more. They regularly check trucks for problems, listen for telltale sounds of failure, and pump fuel.
The latter may sound ridiculous, but truck stops aren't about to add personnel 24 hours a day to fuel vehicles and automating the process would mean technical standards and modified equipment at every pumping station. Good luck waiting for that to happen.
Automation is many years away from loading trucks when shipments aren't in stacks of pallets that can be rolled into place. Truckers have to negotiate with loading dock personnel and solve problems like finding places when GPS doesn't do the job or realizing that the produce isn't marked organic as the shipping manifest calls for. Companies won't trust one another to deal fairly when not in full view.
Limits on the technology
Automated trucks still have major issues that will likely eventually have solutions, but not in the next few years. They can't operate well in bad weather. You could have the robo-truck reroute to avoid heavy rain, snow, or ice, but it adds miles and cost, and avoiding them is the whole idea of automation in the first place.
These trucks also can't easily operate within heavily populated areas. Conditions become too confusing and even powerful computers and software can't keep up. Plus the trucks can't perform multiple delivery stops when someone has to take merchandise off, possibly bringing it to a front door. You can't ask shippers to depend on the honesty of recipients to come out and take only what is theirs.
Regulation
Trucking can fall under both federal and state regulation. There are limits to what states can require. A famous 1959 Supreme Court case, Bibb v. Navajo Freight Lines, had to referee whether Illinois could force truck drivers to remove mud flaps, which were required by most states, and replace them with contoured mudguards, said the rule unconstitutionally interfered with interstate commerce.
However, states aren't currently forced into allowing automated vehicles of any kind on the road. The industry would need uniform rules, perhaps federal, which could be done but isn't on anyone's short list at the moment.
Some trucking automation will happen. So-called caravans of multiple trucks following in a line could cut down on the number of long-distance truckers needed. Overall, don't expect all the drivers to be out of a job.
That brings up the question about the predictions of dangers to other occupations. When some estimates see well over 40% of the population out of work, a number that dwarfs the unemployment numbers during the Great Depression, it's time to be careful, honest, and thorough. Decisions are necessary and we all should want the smartest and most effective policies possible.
