At the start of the Winter Meetings, where does the Mets’ roster stand?

NEW YORK, NEW YORK - JULY 06:   Dominic Smith #22 and Jeff McNeil #6 of the New York Mets celebrate after defeating the Philadelphia Phillies at Citi Field on July 06, 2019 in New York City. (Photo by Jim McIsaac/Getty Images)
By Tim Britton
Dec 9, 2019

Brodie Van Wagenen’s second Winter Meetings officially get underway Monday in San Diego, and New York’s general manager finds himself in something of an awkward spot in terms of roster construction.

Last year at this time, seemingly anything and everything was on the table for the Mets, who were at the center of the action in Las Vegas — even if the only move they got across the finishing line was bringing back Jeurys Familia. This year, New York appears more limited in what it’s capable of doing — both because it has more viable answers already on the roster and because it has less room financially to maneuver underneath the competitive-balance tax threshold.

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(Obligatory note that may be tattooed on my forehead by the end of these proceedings: The Mets do not need to stay under the CBT threshold, and I’ve argued that they shouldn’t. They have yet to indicate a willingness to incur the tax.)

With that in mind, let’s take a look at where New York’s roster stands right now — how the 26-man Opening Day roster would look if the season were to start tomorrow and how the landscape of the 40-man roster influences where and how the Mets might add during their stay on the West Coast.

Catchers

Opening Day roster (2): Wilson Ramos, Tomás Nido
40-man roster (1): Ali Sánchez

Van Wagenen talked about adding a veteran to back up Ramos in 2020, but that’s at the back of the to-do list behind fleshing out New York’s pitching staff. Nido is out of options in 2020, so bringing in someone else would mean either carrying three catchers — more palatable now with a 26-man roster, but still not ideal — or risking another team claiming the young backstop on waivers. The addition of Sánchez to the 40-man roster last month gives the Mets some extra cover in the event of such a waiver claim — or an injury.

However, New York would be in big trouble if Ramos had to miss extended time. Nido hasn’t yet shown that he can hit major-league pitching, and Sánchez has worse minor-league numbers than Nido had. Ramos played a career-high 141 games last season and didn’t make a single trip to the injured list. The Mets can hope for similar health, but it might not be wise to bank on similar health. (Get ready to see that repeated when we get to the rotation.)

If New York does go outside the organization for a backup, it could conceivably try to move Nido now to a team that can be more patient with his major-league development.

Infielders

Opening Day roster (7): Pete Alonso, Robinson Canó, Amed Rosario, Jed Lowrie, Jeff McNeil, Dominic Smith, Luis Guillorme
40-man roster (2): Sam Haggerty, Andrés Giménez

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It would be a surprise if the Mets looked to add anyone to their infield mix. Right now, they can comfortably go into next season with Alonso at first, Canó at second, Rosario at short and McNeil at third. If Lowrie proves himself healthy, McNeil can shuttle back and forth between the hot corner and left field, as he did for much of last season. Smith and Guillorme would both break camp as backups in this scenario, with the latter’s ability to play shortstop keeping him on the team.

The question for the remainder of the offseason will be whether the Mets subtract from this mix — most notably with Smith and perhaps Lowrie. Smith recouped a lot of his value with an excellent 2019 in part-time work, even as his long-term position with the club was iced away by Alonso. If another team views Smith as a potential everyday first baseman — and is willing to part with major-league value commensurate to that opinion — it would make sense for New York to swap. The Mets would be happy to find a taker for some amount of the remaining $12 million due Lowrie ($9 million for the season plus another $3 million in signing bonuses through 2021), given the presences of McNeil and J.D. Davis as potential third basemen on the roster.

Outfielders

Opening Day roster (5): Michael Conforto, Brandon Nimmo, Yoenis Céspedes, Jake Marisnick, J.D. Davis
40-man roster (0): None

Last week’s trade for Marisnick means the Mets don’t need to make another addition to the outfield before the regular season. They can roll with Nimmo and Conforto as everyday guys, complemented by Marisnick, Davis, McNeil and Smith.

Oh, and then there’s Céspedes. Video of Céspedes taking batting practice suggests he may still play a part in the Mets’ fortunes yet; at the same time, New York has been as mum as can be about his status for 2020, and my stance is still that the club should treat any potential contributions from Céspedes as icing on the cake.

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Even with Marisnick aboard, the Mets could look to upgrade their outfield look, particularly in center. Maybe that takes the form of swapping out Nimmo or Conforto for someone better with the glove, with more team control or who hits from the right side. Were New York to move some combination of Smith, Davis and Lowrie, its outfield depth would get shallow very fast, as the Mets don’t currently have any minor-league outfielders on their 40-man roster. The signing of minor-league free agents, like last week’s with Jarrett Parker, can help provide a little insurance there.

Starting Pitchers

Opening Day roster (4): Jacob deGrom, Noah Syndergaard, Marcus StromanSteven Matz, _______
40-man roster (6): Walker Lockett, Corey Oswalt, Stephen Gonsalves, Chris Mazza, Franklyn Kilomé, Thomas Szapucki

The blank line at fifth starter is probably the most glaring void for the Mets right now, because what they want to do with that slot will help determine what they want to do in the bullpen. If New York doesn’t add a starter from outside the organization, it could lean on Seth Lugo to make the transition back to the rotation. Lugo has proven capable in that role before, though that would obviously leave a large absence in the bullpen.

Although New York’s starting depth last season was poor, it was largely unexploited. The Mets’ top five starters combined to make 154 starts, and they’re unlikely to replicate that feat in 2020. Thus, New York is going to have to get something out of the likes of Lockett, Oswalt, Gonsalves and Mazza. The left-handed Gonsalves was an interesting waiver addition, as he was a top-100 prospect in the Twins system just two years ago. Mazza is one of the pitchers with a tenuous grasp on a 40-man spot at the moment; any additions will necessarily require subtractions.

Kilomé is in his last option year and coming off Tommy John surgery. It’s an important season for him, obviously, and it will be interesting to see whether the Mets try to keep him as a starter or succumb to the realities of innings limits and move him to the pen. Szapucki is in his second season back from Tommy John surgery, looking to build off a solid 2019.

Relief Pitchers

Opening Day roster (8): Edwin Díaz, Jeurys Familia, Seth Lugo, Justin Wilson, Robert Gsellman, Brad Brach, Paul Sewald, Jacob Rhame
40-man roster (5): Tyler Bashlor, Daniel Zamora, Drew SmithStephen Nogosek, Jordan Humphreys

The expansion of the roster to 26 means the Mets are likely to have 13 pitchers on the roster almost every day of the season; last year, they had 12 or fewer just about half the time. That means eight relievers on a daily basis, and re-signing Brach to an inexpensive deal helps New York deepen its relief corps a bit. If Lugo and Gsellman are both to be in the bullpen, that gives the Mets a half-dozen relievers to pencil in on Opening Day.

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That leaves two more spots in a healthy pen, and it’s worth pointing out that New York averaged two relievers on the injured list each day of the 2019 season (not counting Drew Smith, who missed the entire season after undergoing Tommy John surgery). Sewald and Rhame are both out of options, which makes them simultaneously likelier to be part of an Opening Day bullpen and likelier to be designated for assignment should New York look elsewhere for relief help. Bashlor and Zamora have had flashes of usefulness but have been unable to do it consistently in the majors; the lefty Zamora will have to adapt to the three-batter minimum slated to go into effect in 2020. Smith is coming back from his surgery, Nogosek struggled in a cup of coffee in the bigs and Humphreys earned a spot on the 40-man thanks to an impressive showing in the Arizona Fall League, though he barely pitched in his first season back from TJ.

All the math here, alongside Van Wagenen’s comments at the GM Meetings, suggest the Mets will continue to seek relievers this winter.

(Photo of Smith and McNeil: Jim McIsaac / Getty Images)

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Tim Britton

Tim Britton is a senior writer for The Athletic covering the New York Mets. He has covered Major League Baseball since 2009 and the Mets since 2018. Prior to joining The Athletic, he spent seven seasons on the Red Sox beat for the Providence Journal. He has also contributed to Baseball Prospectus, NBC Sports Boston, MLB.com and Yahoo Sports. Follow Tim on Twitter @TimBritton