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Market Models - Papers and Reports
Page history
last edited
by Ken Davidian 5 years, 1 month ago
The following are papers and reports using academically accepted models or structures of markets and market behavior as applied to the emerging commercial space industry.
The intent of these papers is to be the beginning of a discussion, not the last word. I'd like these topics to be discussed on the basis of previous works so progress can be made in the overall understanding of different perspectives of these topics.
You can contribute to this page in the following ways:
- Download, read, and then comment on any of the papers here.
- Identify new market models or structures that could be applied to the emerging commercial space industry.
- Use one of the papers below and add to it, by updating the information or going deeper into the analysis or discussion.
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INNOVATION (INDUSTRY CHANGE) MODELS & INDUSTRY STRUCTURE MODELS
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MARKET SEGMENTS
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DISRUPTIVE INNOVATION THEORY
Based on "The Innovator's Dilemma", "The Innovator's Solution" and "Seeing What's Next" by Clayton Christensen
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INDUSTRY STRUCTURAL ANALYSIS
Based on Michael Porter's work based in Industrial Organization Economics
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GAME THEORY PARTS-VALUE NET STRUCTURE Based on "Co-opetition" by Brandenberger and Nalebuff |
MISCELANEOUS
Cats and Dogs of Interest
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SUBORBITAL LAUNCH VEHICLES
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- Here's a presentation given on May 17, 2011 at the 9th Space Investment Summit in Huntsville, AL (held in conjunction with the National Space Society's International Space Development Conference) by Amaresh Kollipara, Managing Partner, Earth2Orbit LLC and Michael Leventhal, Attorney/Consultant, mc² The Law Firm that includes an Industry Structural Analysis (aka Porter's 5 Forces) for the Suborbital and Orbital markets. SIS-9-Overview-Presentation-v5-final.ppsx
- 2012-Oct: Davidian, Ken, and Conrad, Cindy. "Suborbital Research Market Industry Structural Analylsis",
IAC-12-E6.3-10, presented at the International Astronautical Congress 2012 in Naples, Italy.
- 2013-March: "Industry Structural Analysis of the Commercial Suborbital Research Market" in the New Space Journal, Vol 1, Issue 1.
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NANO- and SMALL-SATS and MICRO-LAUNCHERS
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- Here's a paper written by Adil R. Jafry, supported by the International Space University (ISU) community, applying Disruptive Innovation Theory to the small sat industry:
Disruptive Competitive Dynamics Created by the Advent of Small Satellite Manufacturers and Operators
- Serra, Lluc Palerm, Jordi Barrera Ars, Jorge Salas Solanilla, "MICROSATELLITES AND MICROLAUNCHERS: THE TANDEM THAT WILL DISRUPT THE SATELLITE INDUSTRY", IAC-13-E6.1.9, presented at the 2013 International Astronautical Congress, September 27, 2013, Beijing, China.
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ORBITAL LAUNCH VEHICLES
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- de Hauteclocque, Bertrand. Space Economics Original Approach: Economic Theory to the Benefit of Space. Case of the European Spatial Sector Analysis. Evaluation of Economic Indirect Industrial Impact. IAC-09.E3.4.6, presented at the 2009 International Aeronautical Congress, Daejeon, South Korea, 13 October 2009.
- Kaiser, Dustin, Christensen, Ian, Foust, Jeff and Davidian, Ken. An Industry Structural Analysis and Strategy Insights for the Commercial Crew Transportation Industry,” presented at the AIAA Space Conference, September 2011.
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ABERNATHY-UTTERBACK INNOVATION MODEL:
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ON-ORBIT SPACECRAFT (MANNED)
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- Cheetham, Bradley W. Industry Structural Analysis Of Commercial Crew To Orbit Sector, IAC-10-E6.3.1, presented at the 2010 International Astronautical Congress in Prague, the Czech Republic, October 2010.
- Cheetham, Bradley W. Strategic Evaluation of Commercial Crew to Orbit Transportation Industry Structure and Status, IAC-11-D4.2.1, presented at th 2011 International Astronautical Congress in Cape Town, South Africa, October 2011.
- Cheetham, Bradley W. "Theory Based Analysis of the Commercial Crew to Orbit Transportation Industry Structure and Evolution", IAC-12-E6.1.6, presented at the IAC2012 in Naples, Italy.
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MISCELL-ANEOUS TOPICS
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HUMAN SPACEFLIGHT TRAINING
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HUMAN ORBITAL MARKETS
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WORKSHOP RESULTS
The results of the following workshops are separated from the technical papers table above primarily because the workshop activities focused on process and not on the quality of the final product. The emphasis might change as the workshops mature and increase in sophistication, but for the time being, these results should be considered to be preliminary and a "good start" for future studies.
- 2010 July 06 Workshop Applying Porter Industry Structural Analysis of Suborbital Launch Vehicles for the ISU Summer Session Program in Strasbourg, France : Here is a CSWiki page I created with the results of a brief (3.5hr) workshop I ran on July 16 at the International Space University's 2010 Space Studies Program (formerly the "Summer Session Program) of an Industry Structural Analysis of the "Space Tourism" market: 2010-07-16 ISU SSP10 ISA Workshop
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2011 October 26-27 Emerging Space Industry Leaders (ESIL-01) Workshop at the University of Colorado at Boulder : Here is a CSWiki page I created for the entire workshop, including presentations and support materials in which Porter's Industry Structural Analysis of three far-term markets was applied:
MISCELLANEOUS
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This report [by the European Space Policy Institute, ESPI] starts out by making the case for the recognition of innovation economics as an economic paradigm. Today, innovation is a dynamic term of strategic importance in industrial policy and management. The introductory chapter of the report explores the major concepts and authors in the academic literature surrounding innovation and innovation economics. Schumpeter’s concept of creative destruction shows that, by its very nature, innovation should not be touted as a universal benefit but as a complex, disruptive force creating opportunities and challenges to actors in the economic system. In the short term, innovation creates winners and losers. In the long run it is the engine of economic growth, upgrading quality of life and technological progress. Drucker emphasises the need of being mindful of human psychology and the individuals behind the inventions when spurring innovation, indicating that – despite its complex character – innovation is something that can be stimulated and fostered when managed well. (from the Executive Summary)
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February 14, 2012: Commercial Space Industry Analysis Approach
- Here's a presentation I gave at the AIAA Commercial Space Group meeting, held at the Lockheed-Martin Global Vision Center, describing the background to my approach of strategic industry analysis and management... 2012.02.14 CS Industry Studies.ppt
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- Here's a great discussion by my friend, Marc Millis. When I saw the presentation of this paper, I saw a lot of parallels with Christensen's Disruption Theory (above) although Marc had not incorporated any of the DT concepts into his discussion.
IAC-10.E6.1.12 History Hints at Decentralization FINAL.pdf
Market Models - Papers and Reports
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Comments (2)
Ken Davidian said
at 7:54 pm on Apr 21, 2011
Here's a message (broken into 2 parts to accommodate the 2000 character limit) I got from my cousin who is currently an Econ Ph.D. student. He was pointing me to Market Design theory... verrrrry interesting... Here's Part 1 of the message:
Hey Ken,
Sorry about taking so long to respond. I've been trying to catch up with the work so I didn't get around to checking all my facebook messages until now.
That's a really nice Kindle wiki you have set up. Very well organized. If I ever get around to reading again I might make one like that :)
I'm having a bit of trouble finding nontechnical introductions to mechanism/market design unfortunately. The fields are relatively new so it's still mostly (highly technical) journal articles. For an idea of what the fields are about and some of the limitations at least, you can check out the Nobel lectures by Hurwicz, Meyerson, and Maskin. Of the three, I think Hurwicz (the first) does the best job of explaining the philosophy and historical background of mechanism design (it's a very old question with a new set of tools) without getting bogged down in the formalism.
http://nobelprize.org/nobel_prizes/economics/laureates/2007/hurwicz_lecture.pdf
http://nobelprize.org/nobel_prizes/economics/laureates/2007/myerson_lecture.pdf
http://sss.ias.edu/files/papers/econpaper81.pdf
In terms of the rigorous background, Meyerson's scientific background from the Nobel in 2007 is loaded with more key words than you can shake a stick at:
http://nobelprize.org/nobel_prizes/economics/laureates/2007/ecoadv07.pdf
Ken Davidian said
at 7:54 pm on Apr 21, 2011
And here's Part 2...
I'm not sure how helpful the technical notes will be without some background in formal game theory though. Speaking of which, game theory is a wonderful tool (tailor-made even) for questions like the ones you are dealing with--and the language that mechanism and market design are discussed in. There are a number of wonderful if technical introductions to the subject, but a non-technical and (I'm told) thoroughly intuitive introduction is
http://www.amazon.com/Thinking-Strategically-Competitive-Business-Politics/dp/0393310353/ref=pd_bxgy_b_text_c
I had a few non-technical books recommended to me, but in all candor I chose that one from the recommendations because of who the authors are. Dixit especially is a major figure in applied game theoretic research, so I assume he will do a good job introducing the key ideas.
If you are ever interested in a more technical introduction (complete with lots and lots of at first cumbersome notation!) I have a bit more experience with those books. Some do a good job of getting the intuition across, most don't. The ones that do require a lot of problem solving to really understand what they are saying. It's a very nice field with lots of interesting results though.
Thanks and best wishes,
Chris
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