Regeneron's Covid treatment could see $6B in sales next year

EAST GREENBUSH — Regeneron Pharmaceuticals' COV-2 cocktail of antibodies for treatment and prevention of Covid-19 could see sales of as much as $6 billion next year, according to a new analysis by Morningstar, the Chicago-based investment research firm.

In all, it estimates the market for Covid-19 vaccines could top $40 billion next year, with $11 billion of that coming from U.S. government contracts, Morningstar estimated.

Regeneron has an agreement with Roche that will increase manufacturing capacity for COV-2, a drug cocktail containing two antibodies. Regeneron's main manufacturing facility is in East Greenbush. The company is headquartered in Tarrytown, and also has another manufacturing plant in Limerick, Ireland, where it had added 400 jobs as it ramps up production of the Covid treatment.

Regeneron employs 3,000 people in the Capital Region. The company didn't immediately respond to a request for comment.

"Regeneron's program is the most advanced and is distinguished from most with its cocktail strategy, which in preclinical testing (data published mid-June) appears to prevent the virus from escaping the efficacy of the antibodies with mutations," Morningstar wrote.

Morningtar, which in May predicted the U.S. death toll would reach 187,000 by the end of this year, has updated that figure to 274,000 dead by the end of 2020.

"We had predicted that a combination of improved treatments, greater access to diagnostics, and improved contact tracing could all help mitigate these resurgences, as we await the availability of a vaccine around the end of 2020," the report said. But, "(i)nitial increases in cases have not consistently been met with a pullback in reopening plans or more aggressive individual efforts at good hygiene, masking, and distancing."

Morningstar also cited staff shortages and other difficulties with contact tracing, as well as a lack of self-quarantine while individuals awaited test results, for the increase in cases.

Morningstar estimated the likelihood of U.S. approval of COV-2 at 60 percent. Regeneron in July signed a $450 million contract for hundreds of thousands of doses to be ready this year.

"We see targeted antibody programs like Regeneron/Roche's REGN-COV2 cocktail as a powerful way to treat or prevent COVID-19 in immune compromised or elderly populations," Morningstar wrote.

Other pharmaceutical companies developing vaccines and treatments for Covid-19 include AstraZeneca and Lilly, both also working on antibody treatments, as well as Gilead.

Regeneron shares (Nasdaq: REGN) gained $17.32, or 2.87 percent, to close at $619.93 Monday.