U.S. Probabilities of Recession (Chauvet 1998)
Real Time Probability of Recession for the U.S.
US Recession ended in June 2009
Probability of Recession
in August 2012: 15.2%
Recent Economic Conditions:
*** The probabilities of recession have been below 50% since July 2009.
Probabilities increased from around 5% to around 25% mid last year, were less than 10% from August 2011 to June 2012, and are now around 15%.
(As of end of October 2012 data available up to August 2012)
Month Probabilities of Business Cycle
Recession (%) Indicator
The probabilities are calculated according to the model proposed in:
Chauvet, M. (1998), "An Econometric Characterization of Business Cycles with Factor Structure and Markov Switching," International Economic Review, 39, 4, 969-996.
The paper can be downloaded from here:
http://faculty.ucr.edu/~chauvet/ier.pdf
Click here to read about The Beginning and End of the 2007-2009 Recession
Click here to read about Real Time Probabilities of Recessions
Probabilities of Recession, Business Cycle Indicator,
and NBER Recessions (shaded area)
Snapshot - Probabilities of Recession
in the Last 7 years
