Saudi role seen in Pak rounding up Taliban leaders

NEW DELHI: In the past month, Pakistan has arrested nine out of the 19 top leadership of the Afghan Taliban's Quetta Shura, starting with Mullah Baradar. The action was less because Pakistan suddenly saw the light that the US and others have been telling them all these years. It had to do with the fact that Saudi Arabia's powerful intelligence chief Prince Muqrin Abdelaziz conducted some serious lobbying to influence Pakistani behaviour.It has been described as a major shift of policy by Pakistan, that has only increased its leverage with the west.
Prime Minister Manmohan Singh's outreach to Saudi Arabia's leadership over the weekend to get them to sit hard on Pakistan is an equally significant shift in policy. For years, India has zealously guarded its bilateral agenda with Pakistan.
But asking Saudi Arabia to exert influence in Pakistan requires a leap of faith. Across sectors, Saudi Arabia has exerted enormous control over Pakistan. From bailing them out in times of economic crisis to housing exiled prime ministers to funding Islamist extremist organisations like Lashkar-e-Toiba and Pakistan's nuclear programme, Riyadh has deep stakes in the viability and stability of Pakistan.
At the OIC, Saudi Arabia has always stood by Pakistan and against India, particularly on the subject of Kashmir. And across many countries, including India, Saudi charities have been openly involved in funding madrasas that fuel jihadi hate.
The PM's new initiative has not won him plaudits. Former diplomat G Parthasarathy said it was a serious mistake to expect that Saudi Arabia, home of organisations funding Islamist extremism, will in any way be sensitive to Indian concerns. "I find it demeaning that India should be asking Saudi Arabia to bail us out of our problems with Pakistan," he said.
K C Singh, former envoy to the UAE, said the move reflected a lack of knowledge of the workings of the Islamic world. "The Saudis are so thickly enmeshed with the Pakistanis, they are not going to respect India for this," he said. Former IB chief Ajit Doval was equally critical. "There is a good case for leveraging diplomatic advantages for national gains, but it cannot be done by subordinating security interests. India can go to the Saudis only after they have demonstrated national strength vis-a-vis Pakistan," he said.
What does India hope to achieve? It is unlikely that Saudi Arabia will suddenly switch affections from Pakistan to India. But the evolving strategic partnership between Riyadh and New Delhi can introduce an element of uncertainty in what was earlier a simple relationship between Riyadh and Islamabad. That in itself, said sources, was a gain.
Second, LeT, India's chief tormentor, is a Saudi-influenced Wahhabi organisation, with strong ideological and financial ties to Saudi Arabia. Stephen Tankel of Carnegie quoted the US treasury department to write, "In 2003, LeT's chief of finance began to work with the leaders of the group's Saudi branch on expanding its organisation and increasing its fundraising activities."
Pakistan will not act against the LeT because it remains a strategic asset. But India is hoping Riyadh can influence LeT behaviour through the ideological route. What it may signal is India's inability to act against LeT except in a purely diplomatic way. K C Singh said Saudis would see this as a weakness.
Third, but increasingly important, India is being dealt out of the biggest game of all: Afghanistan. Saudi Arabia is playing an important role in trying to mediate with the Taliban (but not Al Qaida, which is committed to destroying the Saudi royalty). India has legitimate security interests in Afghanistan, but the US-UK combine prefers to heed the Pakistani line -- to India's detriment. India would like to kee a toehold in the new Afghanistan developments to preserve its own interests.
In the past few weeks, top level officials from US, UK and Europe have been in Saudi Arabia to work with the Saudis, as has India's friend Hamid Karzai. However, it must be remembered that Saudis and Indians come to the Afghan question from two opposite ends -- Saudi Arabia wants to protect Pakistan's interests, and ensure Pakistan's stability by working out a modus vivendi with the Taliban. India wants to limit Pakistan's pernicious role in Afghanistan. Where will the twain meet?
Where India is likely to see success is in limiting Saudi Arabia's usefulness as financing and training haven for LeTs Indian-origin cadres -- like Indian Mujahideen, SIMI and ISI's Karachi Project. As the government reckons, every bit counts.