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Women's National Seeding

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Bob Jones

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Oct 7, 2009, 4:13:17 PM10/7/09
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I realize that there are still two Regionals yet to be played, but
let's talk about Nationals seeding for the ladies -- there are a lot
of interesting issues.

Here's a strawman:
1) Riot (NW1) -- recovered from bobble at Labor Day to improve to 3-2
against Fury this year
2) Fury (NW2) -- only losses all year are to Riot

That's the easy part.

3) Capitals (Proj. NE1)-- assuming they take the Region vs. Brute
Squad (who they beat twice at Chesapeake), they probably get the #3
spot. Short team history, but they won a very competitive Chesapeake
Open and the teams that combined to make Capitals were both quite good
earlier in the year (as I understand it anyway).

Now it gets messy:

4) Brute Squad (Proj. NE2) -- (assuming they get the #2 from the NE)
strong showing at Chesapeake, only losses to the Capitals and head to
head win over Backhoe. Also has the next best RRI. Also had very
competitive games (both 1 point losses) with both Fury and Riot. Some
of the earlier tournaments are messy, though, as they posted losses to
Nemesis in June and to both Traffic and Zeitgeist in August. Putting
them here based on the strong recent showing and based on who beat who
below.

5) Backhoe (MA1) -- head to head loss to Brute Squad in the semis of
Chesapeake (tied with Lady Condors, who they did not play), next best
RRI besides Ozone. Head to head wins over both Traffic (convincingly)
and Zeitgeist. Close loss to Fury. Head to head loss to Ozone.

6) Lady Condors (SW1) -- tied for 3rd at Chesapeake (only losses to
Capitals and Brute Squad) with Backhoe. Head to Head wins over
Showdown, Nemesis (big margin), Wildcard, and Pop, despite longest
travel time to tourney. Bad (4 point) loss to Safari at Sectionals
weighing down RRI, but dominant Regionals run (including 6 point win
in the finals) with RRI for that tournament of 2848, which is better
than Ozone + Backhoe, and virtually the same as Brute Squad. Putting
below Backhoe based on overall RRI, though I guess they could go above
as well.

7) Showdown (So1) -- at some point you have to slot them in to get
Ozone seeded in the top half . . . maybe. There are a lot of warts
here. Head to head losses to Pop (1-2 record), Scandal, Nemesis (1-1
split), Zeitgeist, all 4 teams ranked 3-6 in this list, and Box (SW4,
beaten relatively easily by the top 3 teams in the region). Two wins
against Wildcard. Won their Region over Ozone, though, and need to be
seeded above.

8) Ozone (So2) -- Other than an early loss to Nemesis (in June), they
had losses only to Riot and Fury (by 1 point) all year until the loss
to Showdown at Regionals. Head to head wins over Stella (part of the
Capitals), Pop, Wildcard, Backhoe, Zeitgeist, and Safari. Without that
loss to Showdown, they are likely in the 3-5 range. Question is how
far do you drop them based on the fact that Showdown clearly doesn't
belong above the teams I have ranked 3-6 and also Zeitgeist, Pop and
Scandal?

9) Zeitgeist (NW3) -- Lots of data here and it is still hard to place
them. RRI may benefit from "getting" to play Fury and Riot so often.
Direct wins over Safari, Showdown, Pop, Nemesis. Split (1-1) with
Brute Squad at Emeral City may be most impressive part of resume.
Direct losses to Riot and Fury multiple times, also to Backhoe,
Traffic (though higher Regionals seed necesitates them being higher
here -- they didn't play each other at Regionals), and lost 13-5 to
Ozone at Labor Day (for which Ozone had to travel cross country and
Zeitgeist got to roll out of bed practically). Maybe hardest team to
place, but I think they deserve to be higher than the 11-16 teams,
have to be higher than number 10, and really shouldn't be ahead of
Ozone.

10) Traffic (NW4) -- Maybe got lucky to even qualify, coming up from
the backdoor to even the season series against Underground when it
mattered (3-3 overall, but 1-0 in games to go). Wins against Zeitgeist
and Brute Squad (1 point) on the impressive side. Only team from North
America all year not named Fury to get a win vs. Riot. Big margin loss
to Backhoe (15-8) at Emerald City. Again with Backhoe doing all the
travelling. Several losses to teams that won't be at Nationals (Bent
-- probably -- and Underground)

11) Nemesis (Proj. Cen1) -- Crazy Up and Down season. Early in the
season (June in Boston), they beat Brute Squad as the away team and
nipped Ozone by 1. On the other hand -- 2 losses to Lotus (part of
Capitals) early on, as well as to Fury, Zeitgeist, Backhoe, Lady
Condors, and split vs. Showdown. Wins vs. Pop, Scandal (3 times),
Wildcard, and Rare Air. Given the poor performances more recently, and
the head-to-head loss to Zeitgeist, I think you have to ignore the
early wins vs. Backhoe and Brute Squad and put them here. Certainly
should be no lower, though.


Messy part done, probably not too controversial, though you could
switch 12+13 or 14+15:

12) Rare Air (SW2) -- wins vs. Safari and Pop. Losses to Fury,
Traffic, Nemesis, Lady Condors.

13) Scandal (MA2) -- Wins vs. Wildcard and Pop. Got rolled by several
teams above at Chesapeake in their own backyard. Did get a win vs.
Showdown, but I can't see them any higher. Maybe could switch with
Rare Air.

14) Safari (SW3) -- Other than aforementioned win over the Lady
Condors at Sectionals, has not beaten a team going to Nationals.

15) Pop (Proj Cen2) -- Several direct wins vs. Wildcard. 2-1 vs.
Showdown. No other wins vs. Nationals teams.

16) Wildcard (MA3) -- has not beat a team going to Nationals, worst
RRI.

Ozone losing to Showdown is the hardest part of this process, though
there is other messiness. Without that, you probably have Ozone 3rd or
4th and Showdown 15th -- really hard to make that work well. I can see
putting both of them as low as 11th and 12th, but Ozone at 12th seems
crazy. It is also really hard to put Ozone behind Zeitgeist given the
severe beating that was administered on the West Coast (if you can't
tell, I put stock on travelling distances and still being able to beat
local teams). Any way you slice it, no one will want to have Ozone as
the #2 or #3 team in their pool, and everyone will want to have
Showdown as the #2 team in their pool. Potential answer is to seed
them such that they go in the same pool. I don't know how the snake
works . . . maybe someone could comment . . . rank them #8 and #9 and
move Zeitgeist up?

Zeitgeist finishing above Traffic without playing them at Regionals is
also tough. Could be argued that both should be higher given Traffic's
win over Riot, but convincing loss by Traffic to the hands of Backhoe
with Backhoe doing most of the travelling makes me put them where they
are.

Final tough thing is Nemesis's up and down season. I used more recent
results to drop them where they are. They still need to qualify as #1
from Central to not drop even farther. A loss to Pop at Regionals puts
the two of them at 14th and 15th.

Fantusta (Chris Vanni, Lower Merion '06)

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Oct 7, 2009, 7:03:28 PM10/7/09
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It's been said (and done) time and time again -- you don't bring a
team up that high just to reward a team that lost to them. Keep
Showdown in the 10s. Sucks for whoever gets Ozone in their pool, but
that's how you have to do it.

Bullardo

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Oct 7, 2009, 7:22:58 PM10/7/09
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That's a fine comment Chris, and i agree with you in theory but how do
you expect any of us to take you seriously if we don't know what year,
and from where, you graduated high school.

-JB

ryandc

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Oct 7, 2009, 7:29:29 PM10/7/09
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I find it funny that this year it's the womens ATL team that's fucking
up the seedings haha.

flannelcakes

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Oct 7, 2009, 7:55:11 PM10/7/09
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"6) Lady Condors (SW1) -- tied for 3rd at Chesapeake (only losses to
Capitals and Brute Squad) with Backhoe. Head to Head wins over
Showdown, Nemesis (big margin), Wildcard, and Pop, despite longest
travel time to tourney. Bad (4 point) loss to Safari at Sectionals
weighing down RRI, but dominant Regionals run (including 6 point win
in the finals) with RRI for that tournament of 2848, which is better
than Ozone + Backhoe, and virtually the same as Brute Squad. Putting
below Backhoe based on overall RRI, though I guess they could go above
as well. "

I'm not computing how the Lady Condors have any business at #6. Based
on where you've put the likes of Showdown, Nemesis, Wildcard and Pop
(and their seasons so far), how do those victories mean much of
anything? Safari hasn't impressed much this season either, so a loss
to them should be significant. And how much weight does a "dominant
regionals run" carry when the teams you're dominating haven't done
anything impressive this season? I'd like to see at least both South
teams above them.

Just some thoughts. This shit is going to be nuts though. Traffic is
going to be a nightmare at the bottom of someone's pool as well.

Hack

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Oct 7, 2009, 11:07:01 PM10/7/09
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fyi: showdown was missing cara crouch at Colorado cup and i believe
their other co-captain. take those losses with a grain of salt. no
disrespect to the teams that beat them...but, their performance that
weekend does not completely reflect their true strength.

Bob Jones

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Oct 8, 2009, 2:27:00 AM10/8/09
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Fair points (I said this wasn't easy). On the other hand, the Lady
Condors were up on the Capitals in the semis of Chesapeake, only to
get nipped at the end. Not the same level of competition at their
Regionals, as you noted. But it's hard to hold that against them --
they played so well against said competition that they got the highest
RRI of any team at their regional tournament so far except for Fury
and Riot (Central Teams won't pass them, and I have them behind the NE
teams).

I think it is interesting to look at Zeitgeist vs. the Lady Condors.
Both beat Nemesis and Showdown. Very similar overall RRI. I put LCs at
6 and Zeitgeist at 9 because Zeitgeist got their butts kicked by
Ozone. Maybe not fair as the LCs didn't play Ozone . . .

Anyway, in this thread one vote for moving both Showdown and Ozone
lower, and one vote to move them up a spot to 6 and 7. The more I
think about it, the more I think that the only way to make it fair is
to put them both in the same pool . . . anyone know how the seeding
snake works?

Parinella

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Oct 8, 2009, 8:50:26 AM10/8/09
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On Oct 7, 7:03 pm, "Fantusta (Chris Vanni, Lower Merion '06)"
> that's how you have to do it.- Hide quoted text -
>
It's also been said (and done) time and time again that you bring up a
team that beats an otherwise highly regarded team in Regionals, not as
high as that other team would have been, but up.

Peri Kurshan

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Oct 8, 2009, 8:58:52 AM10/8/09
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the seeding snake puts 8/9 in the same pool.
how about:
6- ZG (win over showdown, 1-1 with Brute Squad)
7- Condors (win over showdown)
8- Showdown
9- Ozone
10- Traffic

this puts showdown/ozone in the same pool, and condors/traffic in the
same pool.
-peri

Allen

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Oct 8, 2009, 9:10:41 AM10/8/09
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> On Oct 8, 2:27 am, Bob Jones <bjon...@gmail.com> wrote:
>
> > Anyway, in this thread one vote for moving both Showdown and Ozone
> > lower, and one vote to move them up a spot to 6 and 7. The more I
> > think about it, the more I think that the only way to make it fair is
> > to put them both in the same pool . . . anyone know how the seeding
> > snake works?

Don't manipulate the seeds to get matchups you want in the same pool
-- it is unfair to the teams involved and invalidates the results of
regionals. If they happen to land in the same pool, fine, but don't
manipulate the seeds to achieve that goal.

One thing that is being overlooked in this discussion is the
performance of both Ozone and Showdown at nationals last year . Ozone
finished tied for third while Showdown finished 6th. Based on that
performance both teams have a reasonable argument for being in the top
8. Placing them at 6 and 7 is consistent with Showdown's finish last
year.

UPA seeding guidelines (http://upa.org/club/2009_club/
series_guidelines#seed)

1 Seeding for Sectionals and Regionals and the UPA Championships will
be done by the coordinator using the following information: input
solicited from all the captains of participating teams; results prior
to the Series (e.g. head to head, common opponents, tournament
finish); results of last year's Series; and other applicable
information (e.g. team composition, conditions). The coordinator has
the authority to adjust rankings according to the best information
available.
2 Seeding for Regionals will additionally be held to the following
guideline: No team that finishes ahead of another team at Sectionals
may be seeded behind that team at Regionals.
3 Seeding for the UPA College Championships will additionally be held
to the following guideline: No team that finishes ahead of another
team at Regionals may be seeded behind that team at the UPA College
Championships.
4 Seeding for Sectionals must be pre-approved by the appropriate
Regional Coordinator. (If the Sectional and Regional coordinators are
affiliated (player, coach, alum, etc.) with the same team, seedings
must be approved by the National Division Director.)
5 Seeding for Regionals must be pre-approved by the National Division
Director. (If the Regional coordinator and National Director are
affiliated (player, coach, alum, etc.) with the same team, seedings
must be approved by the UPA Championship Director.)
6 Seeding for the UPA Club Championships must be pre-approved by the
Championship Director. (If the National Director and Championship
Director are affiliated (player, coach, alum, etc.) with the same
team, seedings must be approved by the Competition Committee of
national directors.)

flannelcakes

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Oct 8, 2009, 2:13:30 PM10/8/09
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On Oct 8, 5:58 am, Peri Kurshan <pkurs...@gmail.com> wrote:
> the seeding snake puts 8/9 in the same pool.
> how about:
> 6- ZG (win over showdown, 1-1 with Brute Squad)
> 7- Condors (win over showdown)
> 8- Showdown
> 9- Ozone
> 10- Traffic
>
> this puts showdown/ozone in the same pool, and condors/traffic in the
> same pool.
> -peri


I think I agree with the last poster that we should prioritize results
over getting teams in the same pool. I like ZG at 6 (although their
season has been very up and down and I can see the argument for them
below the South teams), but would still like to see Showdown and Ozone
at 7-8 with Condors at 9. Look at matchups: what team of any strength
have the Condors beaten this season? Showdown, once...by one point?
Every other tough game they've had, they've lost: Capitals twice and
Brute Squad once, and the margins of these losses are greater than
their margin of victory over Showdown.

Of course the trick here is that without that regionals loss to
Showdown, Ozone's results would easily put them above both Condors and
Zeitgeist (victories over Bent, Backhoe, ZG) but Showdown's don't, yet
they have to be above Ozone. The best place I then see for these teams
(and I move them together essentially to get Ozone as high as possible
within Showdown's legit range) is below Zeitgeist and above the
Condors.

So I'm looking at a top 10 of:

Riot
Fury
Capitals/Brute Squad (in whatever order regionals plays out)
Backhoe
Zeitgeist
Showdown
Ozone
Condors
Traffic

Which I believe gives starter pools of:

Riot
Ozone
Condors

Fury
Showdown
Traffic

Capitals
Zeitgeist

Brute Squad
Backhoe


Not really sure what I think about those...

Message has been deleted

Bob Jones

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Oct 8, 2009, 4:48:58 PM10/8/09
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Replying to this poster and to Allen, I guess I'm suggesting that you
can do it all -- manipulate the rankings to be fair to the other
teams
AND be fair to Showdown and Ozone AND be consistent with the results
of last year's tournament (which has to be low on most people's
minds)
AND take into consideration the other valid sources of input for
rankings.


I know that "fairness" is not explicitly stated in the sources of
ranking input, but it does cite soliciting input from Captains . . .
are they going to want to be treated unfairly?


Putting Showdown 7th instead of 6th is consistent with their result
last year -- but remember that we all would have agreed to put them
14th or 15th without their win at Regionals, no argument -- that is
their "legit range" -- so I'm not sure whether this matters much.
Anyone can play above themselves for one game . . . the totality of
their record if they had beaten Ozone at some other tournament would
have put them in the last couple of places, even if you ignore the
Colorado Cup results.


Look at the starter pools in the last post and focus on Condors vs.
Traffic. Which pool would you rather be in? Would be very hard for
either team to realistically expect to finish in the top two in a
pool
of Riot and Ozone (might have been ranked 1 and 3 if not for the
problem game we're trying to deal with). If you put Showdown at 7th
and Ozone at 8th, any team would much rather (like drastically, make
or break your tournament, rather) be seeded 10th than 9th . . . how
is
that fair?


Peri's rankings look more fair.


I guess you could also move them up to 6th and 7th -- ahead of both
ZG
and the LCs . . . that would at least make 9th more desireable than
10th, but then it makes 11th more desireable than 10th . . . you have
to put the Showdown and Ozone at 8th and 9th . . .


Flannelcakes seems to have something against the Lady Condors . . .
don't know why, but I see it very differently. Looking at their
results, I don't think the win over Showdown is the quality win in
their season, because beating Showdown is not a quality win -- it is
the big 15-9 victory over Nemesis (almost assured to be ranked #11
based on this thread, and a team that does have quality wins). I
already mentioned the very high LCs computer ranking from the
Regionals performance. Now that I look at their roster, they check
another box. Input for rankings can come from team composition. LCs
have a bunch of recent college grads that just won a College
Nationals
along with some other vets with Nationals experience. Clearly a very,
very different team than last year's that finished 4th at Regionals
behind Rare Air, Box, and Safari. Also looks like they got a
comparatively very late start to the season and are hitting their
stride . . .


However, I agree that I probably unfairly put ZG too low in my
initial
rankings. They have some quality wins. Personally, I think you flip a
coin between LCs and ZG -- ZG with a bit of a higher overall RRI and
a
quality win over Brute Squad, LCs with a bit of a higher RRI at
Regionals and don't have the definitive losses to Backhoe (12-9),
Traffic (15-10) and, especially, Ozone (13-5) because they didn't
play
them -- but a couple people have suggested putting ZG higher, which
would be fine based on the lack of a head-to-head and the more
limited
knowledge of the LCs potential. Doing that has the added advantage of
putting Traffic and LCs in the same pool for anyone that might also
question Traffic being below the South teams.


Based on this, what do people think about the following:
1) Riot
2) Fury
3/4) Capitals or Brute Squad depending on this weekend
5) Backhoe
6) Zeitgeist
7) Lady Condors
8) Showdown
9) Ozone
10) Traffic
11) Nemesis
12) Rare Air
13) Scandal
14) Safari
15) Pop
16) Wildcard


Pools of:


Heavy on the "top", light at the "bottom" and fair:
Riot
Showdown
Ozone
Wildcard


Tough Pool:
Fury
Lady Condors
Traffic
Pop


Tough Pool #2:
Capitals/BS
Zeitgeist
Nemesis
Safari


Should be easier for the top two seeds:
Capitals/BS
Backhoe
Rare Air
Scandal

flannelcakes

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Oct 8, 2009, 5:14:27 PM10/8/09
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ok, ok, some good stuff here. I have nothing against the LC's, I just
can't bring myself to put them above Showdown/Ozone when I'd rather
take a matchup against LC than Ozone any day. But obviously the fact
that this drags Showdown into the mix cannot be ignored.

The whole point of the snaking system that nationals uses is to give
the 1/2 overall seeds the easiest of the 2-seeds and hardest of the 3-
seeds, correct? Technically, that is well accomplished in your pools.
I'm just hung up on the fact that the 3-seeds in pools 1 & 2 are
probably stronger than the 2-seeds in those pools. So why wouldn't you
seed them higher to begin with.

There's little doubt in my mind that with the top two pools you
created (below), the 2/3 seeds will finish opposite where they
started, and I can't reconcile that. I'm not necessarily saying the
seeding I gave was better, just putting more thoughts out there
because I don't think we've arrived at the best result yet.

Riot
Showdown
Ozone
Wildcard

Allen

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Oct 8, 2009, 7:25:28 PM10/8/09
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On Oct 8, 3:48 pm, Bob Jones <bjon...@gmail.com> wrote:
> Replying to this poster and to Allen, I guess I'm suggesting that you
> can do it all -- manipulate the rankings to be fair to the other
> teams
> AND be fair to Showdown and Ozone AND be consistent with the results
> of last year's tournament (which has to be low on most people's
> minds)
> AND take into consideration the other valid sources of input for
> rankings.
>

There is one thing you're overlooking in this argument -- manipulating
seeds to put regionals "upsets" into the same pool is explicitly *not*
being fair to the teams involved or their region. You're essentially
saying that regionals don't count and denying the region the
opportunity to test its strength against other regions.

I'm not quite ready to say what I think the seedings ought to be, I'll
go through that process the end of next week after we know who all of
the teams will be.

Bob Jones

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Oct 11, 2009, 11:59:12 PM10/11/09
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The last two regionals finished as expected with Capitals over Brute
Squad from the NE and Nemesis over Pop in the Central. Only thing
unexpected from my perspective was the crazy high computer ranking
assigned to Nemesis's regionals run . . . they kicked butt this
weekend.

Who wants to take another crack at it now that all the data is in?

Mooney

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Oct 12, 2009, 2:10:23 AM10/12/09
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The Caps played awesome this weekend when i had a chance to watch, and
assumingly by the scores of their games, also when i wasnt around.
Cant wait to watch them continue their great fall season run at
nationals.

Obvious Womens top 3:
1. Riot
2. Fury
3. Capitals

-Mooney


luke

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Oct 12, 2009, 3:41:47 AM10/12/09
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Mooney, no one over 30 will take you seriously as long as you continue
to call yourself mooney.
Or until you win a fist full of rings.
It's like calling yourself some mispelling of dobyns.
call yourself paddy. get a new gmail handle.
it's like luke.

there are two rsd lukes.
one is luketimjohnson, a great young frisbee player and video maker.
one is king of RSD.
seriously, bunch of smart dudes be checking out your mooney posts and
thinking it's something from yungai.
and the fact that it's not is beating down the collective IQ of RSD.

tune in next week for a thread review, and more importantly, an
OLDSKOOL thread review.

Mooney

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Oct 12, 2009, 11:25:51 AM10/12/09
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Thats my name dude, no offense to Steve Mooney but I dont really give
a shit who came before me. You think Steve Smith for the NY Giants
would change his name because there is another player named Steve
Smith on another team? Dont be an idiot, its a meaningless RSD name.
And if youre still on rsd when you were playing ultimate 30 years ago
then maybe its time you take up a new hobby there old school.

That being said, GO CAPS

-Mooney

3jane.

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Oct 12, 2009, 12:11:34 PM10/12/09
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> Thats my name dude, no offense to Steve Mooney but I dont really give
> a shit who came before me. You think Steve Smith for the NY Giants
> would change his name because there is another player named Steve
> Smith on another team? Dont be an idiot, its a meaningless RSD name.
> And if youre still on rsd when you were playing ultimate 30 years ago
> then maybe its time you take up a new hobby there old school.

What if you're on rsd and you were playing Ultimate 30 years ago
(against Steve Mooney I more times than I would like to count) and
you're still playing? Should I get a new hobby too? Actually, it's
good suggestion, I probably should.

NW...@hotmail.com

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Oct 12, 2009, 2:43:41 PM10/12/09
to

Showdown is good. They finished 6th last year, after coming in seeded
10th. Even if they had lost to Ozone at regionals, there should still
be seeded in the top 10 (and not 15th as suggested above).

Capitals are good. But are they top 3 or 4 good? They finished 9th
last year, have only played 3 "top 10" qualifying teams (Brute Squad,
Showdown, and Lady Condors and haven't played any west coast teams. Do
they deserve a top 3 or 4 seed?

Bob Jones

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Oct 12, 2009, 5:51:00 PM10/12/09
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Where do you get top ten from Showdown if they hadn't beaten Ozone? I
have no doubt that they are good -- they are one of only 4 teams all
year to beat Ozone -- but even if you throw out the Colorado Cup
results (poster above said they were missing some top players), they
have still lost to Brute Squad (by 8), Capitals, Lady Condors,
Backhoe, Nemesis (split), Pop (split, 1-2 if you count CC), and
Scandal. Add in Fury and Riot (at least) and Ozone (hypothetically)
and they are out of the top ten just on (hypothetical) head to head or
obviousness.

Even with the Ozone win, they have the 5th lowest RRI, below Rare Air
-- but have lost to 2 of the teams with lower RRI (Scandal and Pop).
Presumably RRI would have been worse if they'd lost to Ozone. Maybe,
instead of 15th, you could construct arguments to put them above Pop
(split 1-1 if you throw out Colorado Cup and better RRI) and Safari
(better RRI); that would put them at 13th. Hard to put them above
Scandal for 12th given 0-1 head to head.

At the end of the day that is all just academic. The question at hand
is where you put them given that they must go above Ozone.


As for Capitals -- I guess it depends on what you think of Brute Squad
and Backhoe. If you think they are properly at 4+5, then Capitals
should be 3 -- won a tournament with both of them present and have now
beaten Brute Squad 3 times.

Only other options to get the Capitals lower are to put Showdown and
Ozone at 3 + 4 -- but I can't swallow that, nor do I think anyone else
would suggest it -- or flip someone else (like Backhoe) above both the
Capitals and Brute Squad despite head to head and RRI inferiority.

b-o-b

Sunday

unread,
Oct 12, 2009, 11:40:14 PM10/12/09
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> there are two rsd lukes.
> one isluketimjohnson, a great young frisbee player and video maker.

> one is king of RSD.

I didn't know we had a king, I thought we were an autonomous
collective.

wix

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Oct 13, 2009, 12:49:10 AM10/13/09
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relax, kiddo. he's just joshing you. er, luke-ing you.

laurel

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Oct 13, 2009, 10:19:12 AM10/13/09
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Two things: Lady Condors are ranked too high in the previous
suggestions... they only beat Showdown by one point, which shouldn't
give them an automatic top 6/7 ranking. Also, Traffic should be in the
top 8. period. Previous results from this year as well as last year's
UPAs give them enough cred. So somehow they need to be in the top 8
but seeded behind ZG... the easiest way to do that is to bump down the
lady condors and ozone (even though ozone could end up in the top 8).

1. Riot
2. Fury
3. Capitals

4. Brutesquad
5. Backhoe
6. Zeitgeist
7. Showdown
8. Traffic
9. Ozone
10. Lady Condors
11. Nemesis
12. Rare Air
13. Pop
14. Safari
15. Scandal
16. Wildcard
(the last four could easily be switched around, although I think that
wildcard is dead last)

luketimjohnson

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Oct 13, 2009, 12:42:49 PM10/13/09
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Argument for Nemesis (a short and quick one):

1. Boston:
Wins over Brute and Ozone in June (only losses to Lotus at Boston, and
they were in the prime of their Canadian season)

2. Colorado:
Win over Rare, but a loss to Zeitgeist

3. Chesapeake
Their worst tournament working out their new offense and defensive
sets. They ended up with losses to Backhoe (which they were winning
until the last 3 points), and to Lady Condors badly, but wins over
Scandal (twice) and Showdown.

4. CHC
Universally agreed upon lower talented teams in participation, but a
solid championship win when it counted against Pop at universe point.
Though they had a loss on saturday to Showdown in pool play, Nemesis
finished higher and Showdown went on to lose to Scandal (6-9).

5. Regionals
Since sectionals doesn't matter, their convincing win over Pop in the
finals has to be considered. If credit is going to be given to the
Lady Condors for peaking at the right time and getting better, then
the same needs to be applied to Nemesis.


Points to Argue:
Has to be placed above Showdown based on win at Chesapeake and higher
finish at CHC. This would place Nemesis above a Showdown seeded 7
would move 4 total teams below Nemesis.
vs Traffic (never played)
vs Ozone (universe point win at Boston which should have given
advantage to Ozone being closer)
vs Lady Condors (only team in this group they have a loss to and at a
tournament they were completely changing their offense and defense.
but because they have the win over Nemesis, they get the bump above)

So my reseeding:


1. Riot
2. Fury
3. Capitals
4. Brutesquad
5. Backhoe
6. Zeitgeist

7. Lady Condors (CHANGED)
8. Nemesis (CHANGED)
9. Showdown (CHANGED)
10. Traffic (CHANGED)
11. Ozone (CHANGED)


12. Rare Air
13. Pop
14. Safari
15. Scandal
16. Wildcard


signed,
luketimjohnson
(yeah the other one no longer from Oregon)

angela

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Oct 13, 2009, 2:21:39 PM10/13/09
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Hey, Angela from Ozone. Not going to take a shot at actual seedings
right this sec... but we are thinking, researching, and listening.
Also, I know some of you, but I'm not on rsd much these days. so, if
you don't mind, please state your name, affiliation, and any
disclosures / conflicts of interest so we know what your bias is.
thanks.

luketimjohnson, your post is confusing b/c in some cases you argue
that recent-ish head to head matters (seeding LC over nemesis) and in
other cases you say it shouldn't (seeding nemesis over showdown).

the real luke: Hey. miss ya brother.

some of my thoughts...

Showdown got fired up and played quite well during the regional final.
props to them. Traffic, even w/ very weird results, is still (as
someone else has pointed out) the only other team other than Fury who
has beaten Riot this year. LCs, not sure what to think - haven't seen,
mixed results that include wins over similarly confusing-to-seed teams
like Nemesis and Showdown and a loss to safari at sects, hasn't played
NW teams. Nemesis - 1v1 vs showdown, but that's their only recent win
vs teams in the discussion for 1-10ish except the win vs ozone which
was in june. zG - I heard played pretty well at NW reg but has mixed
other results w/in this middle confusing group.

clusterfuck city. exciting!

angela.

Kelly Marshall

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Oct 13, 2009, 6:21:01 PM10/13/09
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Nemesis' loss to Showdown at Chc should not matter seeing as nemesis
went on to beat pop and take first, whereas showdown ended finishing
4th.

Kelly marshall
nemesis
(full disclosure!)

ryandc

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Oct 13, 2009, 6:48:03 PM10/13/09
to

By that logic Chains loss to Revolver at Cheseapeake shouldn't matter
because they ended up beating Ring in the finals.

NW...@hotmail.com

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Oct 13, 2009, 7:43:44 PM10/13/09
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I think some of the proposed rankings are putting traffic too low.
They should get credit for their semis appearance last year, and they
beat Riot and Brute Squad.
I don't understand why Lady Condors would be ranked higher than 10th.
They haven't won a game against any of the "top 9" teams.
Ozone would have been ranked higher if they had won regionals, but
that loss brings them below showdown, and for showdown, it doesn't
make up for the rest of their season.
Zeitgeits is 1 and 1 against Brute Squad and lost to Ozone, but they
get credit for being NW3. Last year the NW had 3 teams in semi
finals.

1) Riot (NW1)
2) Fury (NW2)
3) Capitals (NE1)
4) Brute Squad (NE2)
5) Backhoe (MA1)
6) Zeitgeist (NW3)
7) Traffic (NW4)
8) Showdown (SO1)
9) Ozone (SO2)
10) Lady Condors (SW1)
11) Nemesis (CE1)
12) Rare Air (SW2)
13) Scandal (MA2)
14) Safari (SW3)
15) Pop (CE2)
16) Wildcard (MA3)

beatty

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Oct 13, 2009, 9:15:02 PM10/13/09
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<<<They ended up with losses to Backhoe (which they were winning
until the last 3 points)>>>

that's a bit misleading. at 9 all nemesis broke for 10-9 [their first
lead]
and then were outscored 4 to 1 the rest of the way.

wix

unread,
Oct 13, 2009, 9:52:17 PM10/13/09
to
>
> As for Capitals -- I guess it depends on what you think of Brute Squad
> and Backhoe. If you think they are properly at 4+5, then Capitals
> should be 3 -- won a tournament with both of them present and have now
> beaten Brute Squad 3 times.
>

Are Lotus' results from earlier in the season relevant to seeding
Capitals? It doesn't look like they played any US tournaments before
or after Boston (based on score reporter) but that tournament at least
gives the two teams a larger cross-section of opponents who are now
Nationals-bound. Then again, you'd have to consider Stella's results
too; can't just pick the more successful team (this season at least).

wix
loose cannon #24
(skipped club this year so here's an ex-affiliation)

Gwen Ambler

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Oct 14, 2009, 7:31:08 PM10/14/09
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> 1) Riot (NW1)
> 2) Fury (NW2)
> 3) Capitals (NE1)
> 4) Brute Squad (NE2)
> 5) Backhoe (MA1)
> 6) Zeitgeist (NW3)
> 7) Traffic (NW4)
> 8) Showdown (SO1)
> 9) Ozone (SO2)
> 10) Lady Condors (SW1)
> 11) Nemesis (CE1)
> 12) Rare Air (SW2)
> 13) Scandal (MA2)
> 14) Safari (SW3)
> 15) Pop (CE2)
> 16) Wildcard (MA3)

The above list is exactly how I think it should be seeded. I'll
explain why below, but first want to state some of my basic
assumptions (in no particular order).

1. Games from before a team's roster is set (i.e., during try-outs)
should not really be considered
2. Historical finish for the region does matter, but should be
considered mainly when other data is lacking or confusing from the
current season
3. Head to head wins are not everything and the "right" seeding may
very well involve seeding teams above other teams they lost to
4. Massaging the seedings to create particular pools shouldn't be
part of the process
5. Distance traveled is much, much, much less important than how
complete a team's roster was while playing at a tournament (e.g.,
missing players due to injury)

With that said, here is my rationale for seedings:

1. Riot -- Winner of NW Regionals.
2. Fury -- Only losses to Riot.
3. Capitals -- Can't really be anyone else in this spot. Beating
Brute Squad multiple times vaults them ahead of the pack despite not
any games against teams in the 5-9 range of my seeding. No losses all
season.
4. Brute Squad -- all their Boston Invite losses were before their
try-out process ended and shouldn't be a factor. Besides that they
have wins over everyone else they played below them in the ranking
except Traffic (ECC)
5. Backhoe -- No wins against anyone higher than them and wins
against everyone they played lower than them except Ozone (Winston
Cup)
6. Zeitgeist (NW3) -- Earned a quality win over Brute Squad (ECC) but
lost to Ozone (while ZG was missing key players) and Traffic below
them. Beat Showdown (although Showdown was missing key player) and 3
other teams lower down. With a bit of mixed results this season,
historical finish of the NW helps keep ZG high in the rankings.
7. Traffic (NW4) -- Again mixed results. Quality wins over Brute
Squad, ZG, and Riot. But losses to teams that didn't make Nationals
(Bent, Underground). Again, good historical record at Nationals.
8. Showdown (SO1) -- If Showdown hadn't beaten Ozone at Regionals,
they'd probably be an 11 or 12 seed based on lots of losses to
Nationals teams this year. But they did beat them and get the credit
for it (moving up 3 to 4 spots), but I really can't see moving them
ahead of either of the NW teams.
9. Ozone (SO2) -- If Ozone had won it's Region, it would probably be
the 5 seed. But it didn't and lost to a team that hadn't shown much
promise all season, so they move down in the rankings (4 spots).
Tough to be out of the top 8 as a semifinalist from the previous
season, but I just don't see a good rationale for splitting up ZG and
Traffic to move Showdown and Ozone higher. NW bias?
10. Lady Condors (SW1) -- To put them above any of the teams seeded
above them would be folly as the Condors haven't beaten anyone except
lower ranked teams. Blowing through their Region is nice, but it
wasn't that competitive.
11. Nemesis (CN1) -- As mentioned before, I don't put much stock in
Nemesis' wins at Boston Invite as that's a warm-up tournament for
before teams are really set. 11 is exactly where they finished last
year and puts them above the teams they beat and below the teams they
lost to (assuming you ignore Boston results).
12. Rare Air (SW2) -- Not many results this year. They beat Pop and
finished 10th at Nationals last year.
13. Scandal (MA2) -- Beat Pop and Wildcard below. Also beat
Showdown. MA2 finished 13th last year, so this seems about right.
14. Safari (SW3) -- Two wins against Lady Condors and 2 or 3 point
losses to Ozone and ZG, so this could be an underseed, but there's not
much to go on as they didn't really play much out-of-region
competition.
15. Pop (CN2) -- Losses to 8 of the teams seeded above them. Beat
Wildcard 3 times. Also beat Showdown.
16. Wildcard (MA3) -- No wins against National teams

--Gwen
Riot 2008

Katherine Wooten

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Oct 14, 2009, 8:20:50 PM10/14/09
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Is anyone else sad that Godiva isn't going to be at Nationals for the
first time since 1987?

I always enjoy the ranking discussions with Godiva involved, because
it's always like...."Hey, who cares if they went 0-fer this season,
they always peak at Nationals and make quarters or better." And then
they do.

Just something I was thinking about today. Ladies, you will be
missed.

Katherine
Ozone

Joe Seidler

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Oct 14, 2009, 10:05:46 PM10/14/09
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Never question Gwen...

mtsang

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Oct 15, 2009, 1:06:47 AM10/15/09
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On Oct 14, 5:20 pm, Katherine Wooten <katherine.woo...@gmail.com>
wrote:

Wooten,

I was thinking the exact same thing.
22 straight years. 19 of those years semi's or better. 9 titles.
Damn.

mt
Fury

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