ASEAN Economic Outlook
GDP growth will strengthen in 2024 from 2023 on an electronics-led rebound in exports. Strong tourist inflows and lower average inflation should also aid momentum. That said, weaker activity in China will cap the expansion. Regional geopolitical instability is a downside risk, while stronger-than-expected U.S. growth is an upside risk.
ASEAN Inflation
ASEAN inflation rose to 2.6% in March (February: 2.5%). In April, price pressures rebounded in Thailand and strengthened in Vietnam and the Philippines. Inflation should rise further during the rest of the year but average below 2023’s rate in 2024 as a whole on the delayed impact of previous interest rate hikes. Shocks to food and oil prices are an upside risk.
This chart displays Economic Growth (GDP, ann. var. %) for ASEAN from 2010 to 2019.
| 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fixed Investment (ann. var. %) | 2.9 | - | - | - | - |
| Industrial Production (ann. var. %) | 2.1 | -3.1 | 6.5 | 5.6 | - |
| Unemployment (% of active population, aop) | 3.5 | 5.2 | 4.8 | - | - |
| Fiscal Balance (% of GDP) | -2.0 | -6.5 | -4.5 | -2.7 | - |
| Current Account Balance (% of GDP) | 2.7 | 3.7 | 2.1 | - | - |
| Merchandise Exports (USD bn) | 1,466 | 1,431 | 1,773 | - | - |
| Merchandise Imports (USD bn) | 1,332 | 1,213 | 1,549 | - | - |
| International Reserves (USD bn) | 919 | 1,077 | 1,167 | - | - |
| External Debt (% of GDP) | 82.2 | 91.6 | 90.3 | 84.1 | - |
| Public Debt (% of GDP) | 48.3 | 58.4 | 60.9 | - | - |
| Inflation (CPI, ann. var. %, aop) | 2.0 | 1.2 | 2.1 | - | - |
| Standing Lending Facility Rate (%, eop) | 4.13 | 2.79 | 2.69 | 4.55 | - |
| Exchange Rate (CLP per USD, eop) | 7,282 | 7,542 | 7,618 | 8,392 | 8,498 |
| GDP per capita (USD) | 4,959 | 4,674 | 5,084 | 5,432 | - |
| Economic Growth (GDP, ann. var. %) | 4.4 | -3.7 | 3.8 | 5.6 | - |
| Private Consumption (ann. var. %) | 5.4 | - | - | - | - |