As the third-quarter coking coal benchmark settlement announcement approaches, some are already calling the bottom of the market.

The 2015 second-quarter benchmark settled at $109.50/tonne, and analysts expect it to head even lower for the upcoming quarter.

After five months of consecutive losses, the spot market finally posted lackluster gains in May.

"Assuming spot prices remain static and the same percentage premium to the spot price relationship holds, it would imply a Q3 met settlement price of ~$95/[tonne]," BB&T Capital Markets analyst Mark Levin wrote in a June 16 report. "While terrible by any measure, we think this is largely in line with buy-side and industry expectations."

If the settlement falls in line with expectations, it would mark the worst sequential decline in more than a year and represent a 21% year-on-year decrease, Levin noted.

According to Levin, the third quarter will represent a bottom for the metallurgical coal market: "Accelerating production cuts, both in North America and China, should finally put a floor on the price."

But Levin believes a strong recovery for the met market isn't on the horizon.

"Every time the seaborne spot met market price rallies … Chinese spot pricing tends to dry up," he wrote. Additionally, Levin cites the volume of supply coming out of Australia, Russia and Mozambique as preventing a strong price recovery.

Regarding Australia, Levin writes that the country's producers continue to take advantage of favorable exchange rates that lower their cost of production: "Australia continues to use its advantaged currency, as well as low freight rates, to attack the Atlantic Basin, which has traditionally been" a destination for U.S. metallurgical coal.

"The good news, at least in our view, is that the worst of the price decline will be behind us once Q3 settles," Levin wrote. "The bad news is that prices will likely remain subdued for a long while to come."

Market prices and included industry data are current as of the time of publication and are subject to change. For more detailed market data, including SNL power, natural gas and coal index prices, as well as forwards and futures, visit SNL Energy's Commodities Pages.