Two-metre rule to be scrapped in time for new school year

Boris Johnson plans to scrap the two metre rule by September at the latest so that schools can reopen fully for the start of the school year, The Telegraph has learnt.

 The Prime Minister has indicated to ministers that he is preparing to change the rule, possibly bringing it into line with the World Health Organisation standard of one metre, within weeks.  

The Government’s chief scientific adviser appeared to prepare the ground for a change on when he said two metres was “not a rule” but just a “risk based assessment”.

It came as Rishi Sunak, the Chancellor, said it was a “tragedy” that most children will not be back until the autumn, as he appeared to distance himself from the policy on school closures.  

Another minister in the Treasury said the risk of reducing the two metre rule to one metre was “very minimal” as he suggested doing so was vital to “get the economy and society back to normal”.

Speaking at the daily press briefing on Wednesday, Mr Johnson said: “We do fully intend to bring all children back to school in September provided the progress we are making continues.”

Asked if he intended to relax the 2m rule to achieve that, he said: “The level of the epidemic, though it is way, way down, is not as low as we would like in order to relax the social distancing measures in schools.

“I think there’s a balance of risk to be struck and I think the issue for me is how far down we can get the incidence of this disease.” Following the Government's u-turn on getting all primary school pupils back into classrooms before the summer, MPs and experts have argued more must be done now to help children catch up on the education they have lost. 

With a lack of space in schools for reduced class sizes of just 15 pupils a key stumbling block, there are growing calls for alternative venues to be found. Writing for The Telegraph, Sir Keir Starmer, the Labour leader, says the doors of empty theatres, museums, libraries and leisure centres should be thrown open as part of a "national effort" to get children back into the classroom.

Mr Johnson told his Cabinet earlier this week of his desire to scrap the rule that people from different households must stay at least 2m apart. The majority of Cabinet ministers now support the reduction of the 2m rule, and there is frustration within Government at the refusal of scientific advisers to budge on the issue.

Britain is out of step with much of the rest of the world, with WHO guidance recommending just one metre social distancing, and Cabinet sources said yesterday the Government might have to go against its own scientific advisers for the first time since the coronavirus began if the 2m rule is to be dropped in the next few weeks.

One Whitehall source told The Telegraph: “There is a belief that we will be in a position to [reopen all schools]. The summer break will mean we can assess the impact on the infection rate of the classrooms that have already reopened, which will help.”

Mr Johnson appeared to put pressure on members of the Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (Sage) to rethink the 2m rule, as he told the House of Commons: “Clearly, as the incidence of the disease comes down, as I think members of Sage would confirm, the statistical likelihood of being infected, no matter how close or far you are from somebody who may or may not have Coronavirus, goes down."

Sir Patrick Vallance, the chief scientific adviser, made it clear that it was up to politicians, not scientists, to make a decision on relaxing the 2m rule as he told the daily Downing Street press conference: “It’s wrong to portray this as a scientific rule that says it is two metres or nothing. That’s not what the advice has been and it’s not what the advice is now.

“It’s not a scientific rule, it is a risk-based assessment.”

He said “policy decisions” should be based on “mitigating factors” such as whether face masks are being worn, whether people are sitting side by side or face to face, and how much ventilation there is any setting. Chris Whitty, the chief medical officer, stressed that there were “no risk-free options ahead of us”.

Increasing numbers of Tory MPs are concerned by the Government’s failure to solve the schools crisis, with one former children’s minister accusing Education Secretary Gavin Williamson of giving a “Gallic shrug” to innovative ways of saving the summer term.

Some Cabinet ministers have accused Mr Williamson of bowing to the teaching unions, which resisted the reopening of schools on safety grounds, and of writing off the final month of this term because he sees it as too difficult to salvage.

Mr Sunak has told friends that the effect of school closures has been as damaging to the economy as the 2008 financial crisis, and he publicly ramped up the pressure on Mr Johnson to get schools open again by saying: “I personally think every day our children are not at school is a tragedy. It’s obviously going to have an impact on their futures.”

Treasury minister Simon Clarke said the 2m rule was a “serious challenge” to powering up the economy, and questioned whether it was still necessary.

He told the BBC: "It's about the percentage risk. The studies I've seen is that there is a slightly greater risk of 1 metre relative to 2, but it is very marginally increased risk and it's therefore about the right point at which that risk might be deemed to be acceptable and sensible. That feels like the metric to me. It does feel a very minimal additional risk.

"Personally, of course, all Government ministers want to get the economy and society back to normal as quickly as we can."

Research published in the Lancet showed that 1m social distancing cuts the risk of infection from 13 per cent to 3 per cent, and that 2m reduces that further to around 1.5 per cent.

One Cabinet source said: “This might be the moment that we finally have to go against the scientific advisers if they refuse to budge on 2m. We need to show leadership and explain to people that there might be a small risk attached to this, but we need to do it to get the country moving again.”

There is pressure for plans to be made for pupils to get back to classrooms as soon as possible, even with continued social distancing. 

In his Telegraph article Sir Keir says: "The way children are educated needs to change in light of the pandemic. Schools cannot reopen as normal.

"Towns, villages and cities are full of empty buildings and spaces that can be repurposed. Theatres, museums, libraries and leisure centres could be repurposed and opened for children."

 Former Tory Children's minister Tim Loughton said in an article for the Telegraph website that hundreds of thousands of 18 year olds on gap years should be brought in to teach children.  

He said: "Here is a ready-made army of mentors the DfE should be mobilising to help play catch-up across the nation’s schools at all levels.”  

Mr Loughton said that when he offered "some practical suggestions" to Mr Williamson in the Commons about how to be creative in helping children catch up "they were met with a metaphorical Gallic shrug".  

A Downing Street spokesman said: “The 2m rule is something we have kept under review throughout, that remains the case and we will continue to keep looking at it.”