A trade union affiliated with the Labour party has claimed that Jeremy Corbyn’s party could lose an additional 45 seats in a snap election if it fails to take an anti-Brexit position, in a leaked report.
The report, drawn up by the transport union TSSA and including extensive polling, was sent to the leftwing pressure group Momentum. It appears to be an attempt to pile pressure on the Labour leader over Brexit.
It claims that “Brexit energises Labour remain voters” disproportionately, and warns: “There is no middle way policy which gets support from both sides of the debate.”
The Guardian understands that while the report was sent to Momentum, it was not commissioned or requested by the group.
Sources inside the party stressed that there were risks from turning either way on Brexit – and other polls showed a different picture.
The document – marked strictly confidential – says: “There can be no disguising the sense of disappointment and disillusionment with Labour if it fails to oppose Brexit and there is every indication that it will be far more damaging to the party’s electoral fortunes than the Iraq war.
“Labour would especially lose the support of people below the age of 35, which could make this issue comparable to the impact the tuition fees and involvement in the coalition had on Lib Dem support.”
The document starts by pointing out that the TSSA has “supported Jeremy Corbyn’s leadership from the very beginning”.
It says that the party’s supporters view Brexit as a “Tory project”. It adds that four-fifths of them believe the current deal will hurt the British economy and 91.4% of Labour voters do not trust the government to deliver a good Brexit for people such as them.
The report concludes: “If there is an election in 2019, Labour will get a lower share of the vote in every seat in the country if it has a pro-Brexit policy than if it has an anti-Brexit position.”
The paper was widely distributed to senior figures linked to Momentum and to several members of the shadow cabinet, including the shadow chancellor, John McDonnell, and the Labour party in Scotland. It was not intended for publication.
It claims that three-quarters of Labour voters would back remain in a second referendum. It acknowledges that according to the current polls Labour would lose seats in an election, and shows that Labour faces risks whichever way it turns.
But it says that there would be much heavier electoral losses if Labour entered a snap election promising to implement Brexit.
It finds:
That if Labour supports the implementation of Brexit it will lose an additional 45 seats in an election, compared with 11 if it opposes Brexit.
A more vociferous opposition to Brexit would win the party an additional five seats.
The party could lose five of its seven MPs in Scotland by being pro-Brexit.
The briefing says its findings are based on “in-depth polling and focus group work” carried out to prepare for a snap election.
The TSSA has been publicly anti-Brexit. It asked 5,125 voters in January what positions would make them see Labour more positively or negatively. The most popular option was for Labour to oppose Brexit, the second preferred choice was for Labour to honour Brexit but renegotiate a better deal, and the third choice was to support May’s deal.
It warns there is a real risk with a centrist party because of polling suggesting that 17% of Labour’s 2017 voters would be very likely to support a new party to oppose Brexit, while 27% would be fairly likely to.
“Even if we accept that most Labour voters would not desert the party for a new centrist party, anger at Brexit means that some will,” it says, warning this could spell trouble in marginal seats.
A Labour council leader from a strongly remain-voting part of London said they were extremely concerned about the findings and had pressed senior party leadership to take a much more robust and unambiguous stance opposing Brexit.
One Scottish trade union source warned that Labour could be playing into the hands of the pro-independence SNP.
“On the basis of this alarming evidence,” they said, “it is clear that trying to appease Brexit voters in northern England will not just cost us the chance to put Jeremy Corbyn in No 10. Scottish Labour has been rebuilding, but this blinkered Brexit strategy will cut us off at the knees.”