On Tuesday, Alex Shepard wrote in The New Republic that President Donald Trump's erratic behavior is getting worse — and that it is a prelude to the true panic he will show if the United States should enter a full-blown recession.
"There is good reason to believe that bad economic news — a wheezing stock market, a trade war that’s become an increasingly costly boondoggle, and, above all, a looming recession — inspired the week of tantrums," wrote Shepard. "Over a memorable Friday, he accused Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell — whom Trump handpicked for the job but whom he now openly detests — of treason, saying he was an 'enemy' on par with Chinese leader Xi Jinping. Amidst signs trade negotiations with China were hitting more roadblocks, the president took to Twitter. By the weekend, aides were grumbling to The New York Times’ Peter Baker that 'he was hurting the economy and was doing lasting damage to his own prospects for re-election.'"
"All in all, it was a fair preview of what to expect from the president should a recession begin during his time in office," continued Shepard. "Not a disciplined, unified response to a crisis from this White House; instead, an unhinged president issuing feeble edicts from his bed, many of which could cause a sputtering economy to spiral. As the economy tanks, Trump’s poll numbers will also stumble, risking a pattern that could grow worse and worse."
The problem, Shepard noted, is that the narrative of Trump as the masterful steward of the economy is central to Trump's brand as president — and to the justification of those Trump voters who don't want to openly support his racism.
"This narrative was never particularly accurate," wrote Shepard. "Trump inherited an economy that had been growing for nearly eight years; the ill-advised tax cuts passed at the end of 2017 acted as a temporary stimulus, but seem to have had little meaningful long-term impact ... At the same time, the economy Trump inherited was rife with inequality, something that has only grown worse since he took office."
Unfortunately, continued Shepard, "there’s no reason to believe that even a trade war-induced recession would change the president’s thinking. Instead the basic recipe for the Trump White House response to a slowdown is already apparent. There would be a heavy dose of more of the same: More tax cuts and more tariffs, neither of which have done anything to improve economic fundamentals during Trump’s time in office."
"The good news is that is a recipe for a one-term presidency," concluded Shepard. "The bad news is it’s also one for a brutal recession."
