Executive Summary

The Southeast U.S. and Texas are experiencing an economic boom, mostly due to manufacturing and energy industry growth. But that boom is at risk from unchecked climate change, which could render this region—already one of the hottest and most weather vulnerable of the country—at significant economic risk. However, if policymakers and business leaders act aggressively to adapt to the changing climate and to mitigate future impacts by reducing their carbon emissions, this region can lead in responding to climate risk. The Southeast can demonstrate to national and global political leaders the kind of strong response necessary to ensure a strong economic future.

This region, comprising the 11 Southeastern states of Alabama, Arkansas, Florida, Georgia, Kentucky, Louisiana, Mississippi, North Carolina, South Carolina, Tennessee and Virginia as well as Texas to the west, has witnessed a major recent manufacturing boom, and is poised for further economic growth in the coming years.¹ In 2013, manufacturing contributed $2.1 trillion to the U.S. economy—more than 12% of GDP—and accounted for 88% of all U.S. exports, a remarkable 51% increase from declines during the last recession. The region’s economic vitality makes it one of the most productive parts of the country.

But climate change is putting that productivity at risk. While the Southeast and Texas are generally accustomed to heat and humidity, the scale of increased heat—along with other impacts such as sea level rise and storm surge—will likely cause significant and widespread economic harm, especially to a region so heavily invested in physical manufacturing, agriculture and energy infrastructure.

If we continue on our current greenhouse gas emissions pathway,² the Southeastern U.S. and Texas will likely experience significant drops in agricultural yield and labor productivity, along with increased sea level rise, higher energy demand, and rising mortality rates. In particular, the region’s agricultural sector will be negatively influenced by the changing climatic conditions, with several commodity crops likely to face severe yield declines. Meanwhile, residents and businesses will likely be affected by higher heat-related mortality, increased electricity demand and energy costs, and declines in labor productivity, threatening the manufacturing base that is increasingly driving the regional economy. And in some cities, such as Miami and New Orleans, sea level rise will put significant amounts of existing coastal property at risk.

The mission of the Risky Business Project is to quantify the economic risks to the U.S. from unmitigated climate change. Our inaugural report, Risky Business: The Economic Risks of Climate Change in the United States,³ highlighted these impacts across every region of the country, with a focus on three sectors: agriculture, energy demand and coastal infrastructure. We also looked at overarching issues such as changes in labor productivity and heat-related mortality. This follow-up report focuses on the Southeast and Texas and offers a first step toward defining the range of potential economic consequences to this specific region if we continue on our current greenhouse gas emissions pathway.

Our research combines state-of-the-art climate science projections through the year 2100 (and beyond in some cases) with empirically derived estimates of the impact of projected changes in temperature and precipitation on the Southeastern and Texan economies. We analyze not only those outcomes most likely to occur, but also lower-probability, higher-cost climate futures. These are tail risks, most often expressed in this report as the 1-in-20 chance events. As in our other reports, we look at climate impacts at a geographically granular level.

Our findings show that if we stay on our current emissions path, the Southeast and Texas will likely experience significant economic impacts due to climate change.

• By the end of the century, the Southeast and Texas will likely experience dangerous levels of extreme heat.
  • By the end of this century, the average number of extremely hot days across the region each year—with temperatures above 95°F—will likely increase by as much as 14 times from nine days per year in recent decades to as many as 123 days per year.
  • Rising humidity combined with increased heat across the region will likely mean more frequent days that reach extremely dangerous levels on the Human Heat Stroke Index.⁴ By the end of the century, Florida will likely experience as many as 24 days per year with heat and humidity conditions similar to the Chicago heat wave of 1995, which caused more than 700 heat-related deaths.
  • By mid-century, the average Mississippi resident will likely experience 33 to 85 days above 95°F per year, with a 1-in-20 chance of encountering more than 101 extremely hot days—more than three full months— per year. By the end of the century, the average Arkansas resident will likely experience between 65 and 135 days above 95°F in a typical year—more extremely hot days than the average Arizonan has experienced annually in recent decades.
• Rising temperatures will likely lead to a surge in electricity demand, as well as to a decline in energy system efficiency in many of the manufacturing-intensive states in the Southeast and Texas.
  • The Southeast and Texas are high-emitting and high energy-use regions, mainly due to their economic reliance on energy- and emission-intensive sectors such as manufacturing, agriculture, oil and gas production and mining.
  • As temperatures rise and individual households and businesses increase their use of air conditioning, electricity demand across the region will rise—with a corresponding increase in prices. The Southeast region will likely see an average increase of 4% to 12% in energy costs by mid-century, with a 1-in-20 chance these costs will increase by more than 38% by the end of the century.
• Sea level rise along the Atlantic and Gulf coasts will likely lead to large-scale losses from damage to coastal property and infrastructure.
  • The Southeast region faces the highest risks of coastal property losses in the nation. If we continue on our current emissions path, between $48.2 billion and $68.7 billion in existing coastal property in the Southeast will likely be below sea level by 2050, with a 1-in-100 chance of more than $107 billion in existing property at risk. Rising sea levels will also damage critical infrastructure, including water supply, energy, and transportation systems.
  • Louisiana and Florida will be hit hardest by property damages due to sea level rise. By 2030, $19.8 billion in existing coastal property in Louisiana will likely be below mean sea level. By 2050, that number increases to between $33.1 billion and $44.8 billion. In Florida, losses of existing property will likely range between $5.6 billion and $14.8 billion by 2030 to between $14.8 billion and $23.3 billion by 2050.
  • Hurricanes and other coastal storms will interact with rising sea levels, resulting in a likely growth in average annual storm losses due to higher storm surge. By 2050, average annual losses in the Southeast will likely increase by $3.6 to $6.8 billion. Potential changes in hurricane activity could lead to even greater losses.
  • By 2030, average annual losses from hurricanes and other coastal storms will likely increase by $167 million to $222 million in Texas. By 2050, storm losses will likely increase by $483 million to $648 million.
  • Local sea level rise will vary along the coasts. At Grand Isle, Louisiana, mean sea level will likely rise 1.9 to 2.4 feet by 2050 and by 4.1 to 5.8 feet by 2100. Meanwhile, mean sea level at Charleston, South Carolina will likely rise by 0.9 to 1.4 feet by 2050 and by 2.1 to 3.8 feet by the end of the century.
• Changes in temperature and precipitation will likely lead to changes in crop yields, with several major commodity crops facing steep potential declines.
  • Over the next five to 25 years, without significant adaptation by farmers, the Southeast will likely see losses in corn yields of as much as 21% and in soybean yields of as much as 14% on average across the region as a whole. By the end of the century, these crops will take an even bigger hit: Corn yields will likely decrease by as much as 86%, with a 1-in-20 chance of more than 93% decline, and soybean yields will likely decrease by as much as 76%.
  • Kentucky will likely experience the third largest crop losses in the country. By mid-century, Kentucky will likely see average losses in its grain and oilseed crops of as much as 32% annually, absent adaptation. By the end of the century, Kentucky’s losses will likely increase to as much as 69% annually.
  • Over the next five to 25 years, Texas will likely see corn yield declines of as much as 22% annually, absent adaptation. These losses grow to as much as 39% annually by mid-century.
  • On the other hand, warmer temperatures may actually improve the growing conditions for some crops in several southeastern states. Wheat yields, for example, are likely to increase as a result of benefits from higher carbon dioxide in the atmosphere. Cotton yields will see mixed effects, with the likely range of impacts spanning yield gains to losses for many Southeastern states.
• Rising temperatures will likely increase heat-related mortality and reduce labor productivity across the Southeastern U.S. and Texas.
  • Over the next five to 25 years, Florida will likely see as many as 1,840 additional deaths per year and Texas, as many as 2,580 additional deaths per year due to extreme heat. By mid-century, these two states combined will likely see as many as 10,000 additional deaths per year. The elderly are most vulnerable to heat-related health risks.
  • When the temperature rises past human comfort levels, labor productivity declines, specifically in “high-risk” industries involving outdoor work (which include industries such as manufacturing, agriculture and transportation).
  • By mid-century, Southeastern states will likely see labor productivity decline by up to 0.6% on average in these high-risk industries. In Mississippi, there is a 1-in-20 chance that by mid-century the decrease for labor productivity will exceed 2.5% in high-risk sectors.

These diverse impacts from climate change put the Southeastern and Texan economies at risk and could reverse the positive trends seen in the manufacturing sector in recent years. By fully understanding the climate risks these states face if we stay on our current emissions path, Southeastern and Texan businesses and policymakers have the opportunity to become models of climate risk mitigation and resilience.

This follow-up report focuses on the Southeastern region of the U.S. and Texas. It offers a first step toward defining the range of potential economic consequences to specific sub-regions and industry sectors in each state if we continue on our current greenhouse gas emissions pathway, with no significant new national policy or global action to mitigate climate change.

Our research combines state-of-the-art climate science projections through the year 2100 with empirically-derived estimates of the impact of projected changes in temperature and precipitation on the Southeastern and Texan economy. We analyze not only those outcomes most likely to occur, but also lower-probability, highercost climate futures. These “tail risks” are most often expressed here as the 1-in-20 chance events.

When assessing risk related to climate change, it is particularly important to consider outlier events and not just the most likely scenarios. Indeed, the outlier onein-100-year event today will become the one-in-10-year event as the earth continues to warm. Put another way, over time the extremes will become the “new normal.”

As with classic risk analysis, our work does not take into account the wide range of potential adaptation strategies Southern industries and policymakers will surely pursue in the face of shifting climate impacts. These potential responses are frankly too varied and speculative to model with any certainty; they also may depend on policies and technologies not yet commercialized or even imagined. Rather, we present our estimate of the risks that states in the Southeast and Texas will face if they maintain their current economic and demographic structure, and if businesses and individuals continue to respond to changes in temperature and precipitation as they have in the past.

There is some evidence that firms are starting to see the U.S. as more of an opportunity than they have in a long time. During the past five years, there has been encouraging anecdotal evidence as major manufacturers have either chosen to bring operations back to the U.S. from offshore, or to expand here rather than overseas. For example, BMW will invest $1 billion over the next two years to expand its Spartanburg, South Carolina factory by about 800 jobs and to increase capacity by 50% in 2016.⁸ Meanwhile, Nissan is expanding its assembly plant in Smyrna, Tennessee, and expects to add almost 1000 jobs after investing $160 million in the project.⁹

Two important global trends have helped to move more manufacturing back from overseas to the U.S. First, the 2011 Japan tsunami and earthquake severely disrupted supply chains,¹⁰ especially in the auto industry, and alerted some manufacturers to the need to diversify their supply chains and make them more resilient to extreme weather events.¹¹ Second, low energy costs resulting from the U.S. shale boom have courted energy-intensive manufacturers back to this country.¹² This boom has also resulted in more oil and gas drilling operations, which sometimes count as manufacturers depending on their place in the value chain.

But American manufacturing is at risk from climate change, which could reverse the positive trends seen in recent years. Manufacturing plants tend to be place-based and capital intensive, and therefore not easily moved away from areas of high climate risk. They are also highly dependent on transportation infrastructure, such as roads, rivers, railways and ports, all of which are similarly at risk from rising temperatures, higher sea levels and increased storm surge. Manufacturing workers can be considered high risk for heat stroke in extremely hot and humid temperatures, leading to a loss in labor productivity that can affect these firms’ competitiveness. Plants and facilities are also often energy- and water-intensive, meaning that changes in the availability of these resources can cause serious harm to their competitiveness. Finally, manufacturers in the food processing space have a secondary set of risks related to the climate risk to their raw materials: crops and livestock.

Manufacturing in the Southeast and Texas

Manufacturing growth has been particularly strong in the Southeast and Texas, one of the regions of the U.S. likely to be hit hardest by the impacts of climate change. Anchored by traditional manufacturing industries such as auto, timber, textiles, and chemicals, Southern manufacturing has been a key driver of economic growth during the post-recession recovery. Manufacturing is a pillar of most of these states’ economies; in fact, manufacturing represents more than 10% of gross state product (GSP) for 10 of the 12 states in this report (excluding only Florida and Virginia).¹³ In terms of raw output, manufacturing contributed $528 billion to these states’ combined economies in 2013. Rising manufacturing output is stimulating jobs and investment growth in the region. According to Southern Business & Development magazine, the manufacturing sector announced 410 projects that met or exceeded 200 jobs and/or $30 million in investment in 2013.¹⁴ For example, DuPont recently built a $500 million plant to produce Kevlar anti-ballistic fiber near Charleston, South Carolina, after considering locations around the world.¹⁵

Recent manufacturing growth has generated investment and created jobs in cities of all sizes across the region. A Forbes¹⁶ report ranking top cities for manufacturing growth by metropolitan area size placed Nashville, Tennessee, and Virginia Beach, Virginia, among the top 10 in large metro regions, while both Mobile, Alabama, and Charleston, South Carolina, placed high among mid-sized metro regions. In Nashville, auto-related manufacturing is booming with the expansion of several smaller plants and a Nissan facility. Meanwhile, Virginia Beach’s manufacturing growth has included a diverse mix of durable goods, including fabricated metals and autos. Growth in Mobile and Charleston is largely due to a recent spike in aerospace manufacturing. In fact, South Carolina has experienced the highest growth in aerospace manufacturing in the country, with statewide employment in the sector growing more than 600% since 2010.

Risks to critical infrastructure

Reliable infrastructure is critical for continued manufacturing growth in this region. The Southeast and Texas in particular boast a central location that is a draw for manufacturers looking for easy access to materials and markets. The Southeast has a well-developed transportation infrastructure consisting of modern ports, railroads, airports, the Mississippi River and highways. In addition, the proximity to oil and natural gas resources along the Gulf Coast provides reliable energy sources.

But climate change threatens manufacturing plants and critical transportation and energy infrastructure along the Gulf and Atlantic coasts as well as major waterways such as the Mississippi River. In its 2012 report, Locating American Manufacturing, the Brookings Institution found that many of the metropolitan areas that are designated “strongly specialized” in manufacturing lie along America’s coastlines and major waterways.¹⁷ Manufacturing firms often rely on large intakes of water for production and cooling processes; they also tend to locate near ports and waterways to transport their goods across supply chains or to markets.

The Southeast and Texas will likely face a higher rise in sea level and far greater losses of property and infrastructure from flooding and coastal storms than the national average. For example, Louisiana, which is already losing large amounts of land to the sea for a variety of reasons, will likely see 1.1 to 1.4 feet of sea level rise at Grand Isle by 2030 if we stay on our current emissions path.¹⁸

Higher seas also lead to more destruction when storms hit, and the Southeast is the single most susceptible region in the nation to additional losses from storm damage. When storms batter the Gulf and Atlantic coasts, higher seas will exacerbate storm surges and expand the reach of storm-related flooding. The storm-related property losses attributed to climate change along the Florida shoreline are likely to increase by as much as $1.3 billion per year on average by 2030, and by as much as $4 billion annually by 2050, bringing Florida’s likely total annual storm damage to as much as $17.2 billion per year by mid-century. These numbers may well be too conservative, as they assume historical frequency and intensity of hurricane activity, both of which may increase with climate change and lead to higher losses.

But climate change doesn’t only threaten infrastructure and commerce in coastal areas. Variation in the amount of precipitation falling both in the southeastern U.S. and in the Midwest in particular has the potential to wreak havoc on waterway commerce along the Mississippi River.¹⁹ Currently, specific flooding and drought events cannot necessarily be attributed to climate change, but projected changes in precipitation indicate that such events will likely become more frequent in the future.

Heavy precipitation can lead to very high water levels along rivers and accelerate flow rates. This makes navigation increasingly difficult and also leads to floods, especially given the poor condition of many levees on the lower Mississippi. For example, severe flooding in 2011 delayed barge traffic, caused barges to run lighter loads, and forced some cargo to be re-routed to trucks and rail.²⁰ As recently as March 2015, heavy rainfall caused the Mississippi to rise significantly, prompting restrictions for work along the levees and on river traffic and transportation of heavy loads. Subsequent delays are expensive and can have ripple effects throughout the economy, affecting supply chains and commodity prices.

On the other hand, decreased summer precipitation combined with longer dry spells could lower water along the region’s rivers and lakes. In 2012, severe drought in the upper Midwest left the Mississippi River levels at near-record lows, slowing river traffic and transport of goods along the nation’s busiest waterway. As a result, tugs pulled fewer barges, and barge operators reduced loads to avoid bottoming out.

Disruptions in barge traffic come with a significant price tag for both businesses and government. Every inch drop in water level corresponds to more than 250 fewer tons of barge capacity along the river.²¹ Ultimately, barge cargo for December 2012 totaled 1.1 million metric tons less than the previous year.²² Meanwhile, the Army Corps of Engineers continually dredged portions of the river to ensure they remained passable throughout this period. The resulting economic harm was significant and demonstrates the region’s vulnerability to drought.

Impacts on energy systems, labor productivity and food supply

Rising sea levels may have the most immediately visible effects; however, increasing atmospheric temperatures caused by climate change are themselves a major risk to the U.S. manufacturing sector. Extreme heat across the nation, but especially in the manufacturing-intensive areas of the Southeast and Midwest, will threaten labor productivity and energy systems: both contributors to manufacturing competitiveness.

Labor productivity of what economists call “high-risk” workers, including those in the manufacturing sector but also the related transportation sector, could be reduced by as much as 3% by the end of the century, particularly in the Southeast. This is comparable to the decline in absolute labor output during past U.S. recessions.²³ Over the longer term, during some parts of the year, extreme heat could surpass the threshold at which the human body can no longer maintain a normal core temperature without air conditioning, which we measure using a Human Heat Stroke Index (HHSI). During these periods, those whose jobs require them to work outdoors, as well as those lacking access to air conditioning, will face severe health risks.

Rising temperatures also decrease the efficiency of our energy systems: Power plants need to be cooled down more often (and sometimes the water used to cool them must itself be cooled beforehand), and transmission lines move electrons more slowly in the heat. Meanwhile, our research shows that increased temperatures will likely raise electricity demand, and as a result, overall energy costs, because electricity demand for air conditioning tends to surge when the weather heats up. Although our research focuses on climate change impacts to residential and commercial energy demand and cost, we can expect similar effects in the industrial sector.

Our analysis did not account for climate-driven changes in water supply, which can further impact energy costs by decreasing production capacity. For example, decreases in water availability can cause water-cooled power plants to temporarily shut down or reduce production. Oil and gas production, which requires large volumes of water throughout the production process, faces increasing risks as operations compete with other users for water access in times of stress, facing limited availability and higher costs.

A number of the Southeast and Texas’ bedrock manufacturing industries depend on plentiful and affordable energy supplies, making them particularly sensitive to energy cost increases. Several of this region’s largest manufacturing sectors—including chemicals, paper, and wood manufacturing—rank among the most energy intensive industries. Even relatively small increases in energy prices can significantly increase manufacturing costs for these Southeastern companies. The chemical industry in particular is energy-intensive, relying on natural gas as a key input to its production processes, and also on electricity to power its operations. Lately this sector has been extremely competitive globally due to low U.S. natural gas prices, but this recent success underscores the energy sensitivity of the sector as a whole.²⁴ The chemical industry is important to the U.S. economy: Shipments from this sector totaled nearly $795 billion in 2012, or nearly 14% of all manufacturing shipments (more than two-thirds pharmaceuticals).²⁵ Texas manufactures more chemicals than any other state (21% of the nation’s total); Louisiana, North Carolina, California and Illinois round out the top five. Together, these five states represent half of all U.S. chemical shipments.²⁶

Finally, food manufacturers will face additional risk through impacts on their raw materials: crops and livestock. This industry employs 14% of all U.S. manufacturing workers. As extreme heat spreads across the middle of the country by the end of the century, some states in the Southeast risk a likely loss up to 70% of average annual crop yields (corn, soy, cotton and wheat), absent agricultural adaptation. These decreased crop yields (particularly in major grain and oilseed producing regions such as the Midwest, which we discussed in our January 2015 report) have been shown to contribute to increasing food commodity prices,²⁷ which can raise costs for small and large food manufacturers alike. For livestock species, increased body temperatures of 4°F to 5°F above optimum levels can disrupt performance, production and fertility, limiting an animal’s ability to produce meat, milk or eggs. Higher temperatures can also increase animal mortality.

Food systems are resilient at a national and global level, and agricultural producers have proven themselves extremely able to adapt to changing climate conditions. These shifts, however, still carry risks for the individual farming communities most vulnerable to projected climatic changes—and to the food processing supply chains that rely on those farming communities to supply their raw materials.

In the Southeast and Texas, manufacturing is among the fastest-growing economic sectors. But because it is energy-intensive, relies on large fixed capital assets and critical infrastructure, and employs workers who often must be outdoors for part of the day, it is also particularly sensitive to some of the economic risks from unchecked climate change. These risks are significant and vary across the region, with some of the most severe impacts felt in the most southern states. In the next section, we explore climate risks by state in order to highlight those variations and vulnerabilities.

Heat

Many of Alabama’s climate-related economic troubles will be rooted in rising temperatures driven by heat-trapping greenhouse gas emissions. While climate change will likely increase both summer and winter average temperatures, the impact in Alabama will be most evident in the number of days of extreme heat each year. Since 1980, the typical Alabaman has experienced an average of 12 days per year of temperatures above 95°F. By 2020-2039, that number is likely to more than triple to as many as 41 such days and as many as 75 days per year by mid-century. There is a 1-in-20 chance that Alabama will experience more than 87 days of extreme heat by mid-century—almost three full months each year of temperatures above 95°F.

Heat-Related Mortality (Additional Annual Deaths)

Temperature increases have real impacts on Americans’ lives. In Alabama, extreme heat driven by climate change likely will claim up to 350 additional lives each year by 2020-2039 and up to 760 additional lives by 2040-2059, assuming the current population size.²⁹ For comparison, there were 852 auto fatalities in Alabama in 2013.³⁰

Rising temperatures will also affect Alabama’s wider economy. Our research shows that even seemingly small temperature increases can have profound effects on crop yields, labor productivity and energy costs.

Agriculture

Alabama has more than 43,000 farms covering almost 9 million acres of land. These farms produce a wide range of crops, from cotton to peanuts to sod. In fact, about half of all peanuts produced in the United States are harvested within a 100-mile range of Dothan, Alabama.

Alabama faces significant climate risks to its commodity crop output if we stay on our current greenhouse gas emissions pathway. Our research focused on two specific climate impacts—changes in heat and precipitation—and their interaction with four major commodity crops in the Southeast: corn, soybeans, cotton and wheat. Crops are very sensitive to changes in their growing environment, particularly temperature. Small increases in temperatures may benefit plants; however, most crops have a specific threshold beyond which yields decline dramatically. Overall, impacts from climate-related temperature and precipitation changes are highly crop- and location-specific.

Though increased heat has the potential to depress yields, our analysis also takes into account the potential yield benefits from increasing carbon dioxide in the atmosphere, which can stimulate crop growth and potentially reduce or even offset yield declines. Some crops, such as wheat, respond more favorably to this “carbon fertilization” effect than do others, such as corn.³¹ On the other hand, our research does not take into account predicted climate-driven changes in water availability or changes in the prevalence and distribution of pests, weeds, and diseases, which can further influence yield outcomes.

Soybeans were Alabama’s second most valuable crop in 2014 with $193 million of production.³² Absent significant agricultural adaptation, soybean yields will likely decrease by up to 14% by 2020-2039. Alabama’s fourth most valuable crop, corn, will likely experience even steeper production declines. Corn output will likely drop by as much as 22% by 2020-2039 and as much as 44% by 2040-2059.

On the other hand, Alabama wheat benefits more from the “carbon fertilization” effect than it is harmed by temperature increases. As a result, wheat yields are likely to increase over the course of the century as carbon dioxide concentrations continue to rise.

Heat affects more than just crop yields, however. As the second largest producer of broilers in the country after Georgia, Alabama faces risks to the one billion chickens it raises each year.³³ Because poultry flocks can only tolerate narrow temperature ranges, high temperatures can disrupt performance, production, and fertility, limiting an animal’s ability to produce meat or eggs. Higher temperatures can also increase animal mortality. In addition, climate change can affect the price and availability of water, feed grains, and pasture, and change patterns of animal diseases. And because energy costs comprise more than 50% of growers’ cash expenses,³⁴ higher energy costs due to climate change have the potential to put additional pressure on this sector.

Labor Productivity

Change In Labor Productivity

Higher temperatures, spurred by climate change, are likely to drive down labor productivity and overall quality of life in Alabama. Extreme heat stress can induce heat exhaustion or heat stroke and can significantly reduce a person’s ability to carry out daily tasks. By mid-century, heat-related labor productivity declines across all sectors in Alabama will likely cost the state economy up to $1.2 billion each year, with a 1-in-20 chance of costing more than $1.9 billion a year.

Alabama labor productivity has been trending upwards in recent decades,³⁵ but climate change could jeopardize these gains. Workers in high-risk sectors such as agriculture, construction, utilities and manufacturing are among the most vulnerable to higher outdoor temperatures and, therefore, to declining productivity.

In 2011, nearly one in three Alabama employees (about 31%) worked in one of these high-risk sectors. Alabama is likely to experience up to a 0.6% decrease in high-risk labor productivity due to rising temperatures by 2020-2039, increasing to a 1.4% drop in the following 20 years. There is a 1-in-20 likelihood that the state’s high risk labor productivity will decrease by more than 2% by mid-century.

Energy

Change In Energy Costs

Energy use in Alabama is already well above the national average due to high demand from the state’s manufacturing base, which includes chemicals, primary metals, petroleum, coal, paper products, food products and transportation equipment.³⁶ As temperatures rise, Alabama citizens and businesses are expected to require more air conditioning, which will lead to higher overall electricity demand. At the same time, power plants and transmission lines are known to become less efficient at very high temperatures. This combination of factors will likely require construction of additional power generation capacity to meet higher peak demand, which in turn will lead to higher electricity rates to cover the cost of new construction and transmission.

By 2020-2039, rising electricity demand related solely to climate change is likely to increase residential and commercial energy expenditures by up to 5% in Alabama. Those increases will likely grow to up to 10% by 2040- 2059. Using future changes in temperature mapped against today’s U.S. energy market, this translates to higher statewide energy expenditures of $742 million each year by mid-century.

Sea Level Rise

Another critical effect of rising heat is higher sea levels. As the atmosphere warms, the oceans warm and expand. Melting ice caps also contribute to higher sea levels. Higher seas lead to more destruction when storms hit, exacerbating the impact of storm surges and expanding the reach of storm-related flooding.

Alabama’s shoreline along the Gulf of Mexico stretches for 60 miles, with an additional 540 miles of tidal shoreline bordering coastal bays, rivers and bayous. This coastal area is an important aspect of the state’s culture and economy, contributing more than $2 billion in annual revenue.³⁷ In response to increased beach erosion, coastal residents have already taken steps to reverse these trends and protect coastal land and infrastructure. For example, the city of Gulf Shores implemented a $6 million beach nourishment project in 2001 to rebuild beachfront land that was damaged in previous years.³⁸ Climate-induced rising sea levels and increased storm surges could threaten such efforts.

Although Alabama only has a small stretch of coastal land, the storm-related coastal damage to businesses and residents along the coast could be significant. The storm-related losses attributed to climate change along the Alabama shoreline are likely to increase by up to $11 million per year on average by 2030, and up to $29 million annually by 2050. These numbers may well be too conservative, as they assume historical levels of hurricane activity, which may increase with climate change.

Heat

Many of Arkansas’ climate-related economic troubles will be rooted in rising temperatures. Our research shows that Arkansas will be among the states most severely harmed by temperature increases if we stay on our current greenhouse gas emissions pathway.

While climate change will likely increase both summer and winter average temperature, the impact in Arkansas will be most evident in the number of days of extreme heat each year. During the past 30 years, the typical Arkansan has experienced an average of 19 days per year of temperatures above 95°F. But by 2020-2039, that number is likely to reach up to 55 such days, and then reach up to 82 days per year by mid-century— more extreme heat than any state besides Arizona experiences today.

Temperature increases have real impacts on Americans’ lives. By 2020-2039, extreme heat driven by climate change will likely claim as many as 300 additional lives each year in Arkansas. Annual additional heat-related deaths due to climate change are likely to climb to as many as 550 by 2040-2059—exceeding the number of auto fatalities that Arkansas suffered in 2013.⁴⁰

Agriculture

Agriculture is Arkansas’ largest industry, adding about $16 billion⁴¹ to the state’s economy each year. Soybeans, rice and corn are Arkansas’ main crop commodities and contributed about $3.5 billion to production value in 2014. Cotton and hay are also valuable crops for the state. Arkansas ranks first in acreage use for rice production nationally and third in acreage use for cotton production nationally.⁴²

Arkansas faces significant climate risks to its commodity crop output if we stay on our current greenhouse gas emissions pathway. Our research focused on two specific climate impacts—changes in heat and precipitation—and their interaction with four major commodity crops in the Southeast: corn, soybeans, cotton and wheat. Crops are very sensitive to changes in their growing environment, particularly temperature. Small increases in temperatures may benefit plants; however, most crops have a specific threshold beyond which yields decline dramatically. Overall, impacts from climate-related temperature and precipitation changes are highly crop- and location-specific.

Though increased heat has the potential to depress yields, our analysis also takes into account the potential yield benefits from increasing carbon dioxide in the atmosphere, which can stimulate crop growth and potentially reduce or even offset yield declines. Some crops, such as wheat, respond more favorably to this “carbon fertilization” effect than do others, such as corn. On the other hand, our research does not take into account predicted climate-driven changes in water availability or changes in the prevalence and distribution of pests, weeds and diseases, which can further influence yield outcomes.

With an annual value of $846 million,⁴³ corn is one of Arkansas’s most valuable agricultural commodities. Absent significant agricultural adaptation, state corn yields will likely decrease by up to 33% by 2020-2039 and by up to 59% in the following 20 years; these are sharper likely declines in corn yields than any other state.

Other commodity crops will likely also suffer yield losses. Arkansas is one of the nation’s largest soybean producers, with a 2012 crop covering nearly one-tenth of the state’s land area and worth nearly $1.8 billion.⁴⁴ But that output will likely drop by as much as 20% by 2020-2039 and as much as 43% by 2040-2059. Meanwhile, the state’s cotton crop (the third largest in the nation) is likely to drop by as much as 20% by 2040-2059.

On the other hand, Arkansas wheat benefits more from the carbon fertilization effect than it is harmed by temperature increases. As a result, wheat yields are likely to increase over the course of the century as carbon dioxide concentrations continue to rise.

By mid-century, the overall likely impacts of climate change on grain, oilseed and cotton yields to the state economy span gains ($227 million per year) to losses ($959 million per year, with a 1-in-20 chance of more than $1.4 billion in losses) due to the potential for economic gains from increases in yields. As corn and soybeans are in the top three crops grown in the state, likely overall losses are larger than gains.

Heat affects more in the agricultural sector than just crop yields, however. As the third biggest producer of broilers in the country after Georgia and Alabama, Arkansas faces risks to the one billion chickens it raises each year.⁴⁵ Because poultry flocks can tolerate only narrow temperature ranges, high temperatures can disrupt performance, production and fertility, limiting a bird’s ability to produce meat or eggs. Higher temperatures can also increase animal mortality. In addition, climate change can affect the price and availability of water, feed grains and pasture, and can change patterns of animal diseases. And because energy costs comprise more than 50% of growers’ cash expenses,⁴⁶ higher energy costs due to climate change have the potential to put additional pressure on this sector.

Energy

Change In Energy Costs

As temperatures rise, Arkansas citizens and businesses are expected to require more air conditioning, which will lead to higher overall electricity demand. At the same time, power plants and transmission lines are known to become less efficient at very high temperatures. This combination of factors will likely require construction of additional power generation capacity to meet higher peak demand, which, in turn, will lead to higher electricity rates to cover the cost of new construction and transmission.

Arkansas consistently ranks among the top 10 states with the highest likely increases in electricity demand. By 2020-2039, rising electricity demand related solely to climate change is likely to increase residential and commercial energy expenditures by up to 7%. Those increases will likely grow to up to 10% by 2040-2059. Using future changes in temperature mapped against today’s U.S. energy market, this translates to higher statewide energy expenditures of $435 million each year by mid-century.

Labor Productivity

Heat-Related Mortality (Additional Annual Deaths)

Higher temperatures, spurred by climate change, are likely to drive down both productivity and quality of life in Arkansas. Extreme heat stress can induce heat exhaustion or heat stroke and can significantly reduce a person’s ability to carry out daily tasks. By midcentury, heat-related labor productivity declines across all sectors in Arkansas will likely cost the state economy up to $800 million each year, with a 1-in-20 chance that the cost to the economy could exceed $1.2 billion.

Workers in high-risk sectors such as agriculture, construction, utilities, and manufacturing are among the most vulnerable to higher outdoor temperatures and, therefore, to declining productivity. In 2011, about one in three Arkansas workers (34%) worked in one of these high-risk sectors.

Arkansas has had recent gains in labor productivity,⁴⁷ but these are at risk as a result of climate change. The state is likely to have among the steepest high-risk labor productivity penalties from warmer temperatures, with up to a 0.9% penalty by 2020-2039, and up to a 1.5% penalty in the following 20 years.

Sea Level Rise

With more than 8,400 miles of shoreline,⁵⁰ Florida already faces serious risks from flooding and coastal storms, and climate change is likely to substantially increase these risks. Higher sea levels are a result of rising temperatures: As the atmosphere warms due to the accumulation of heat-trapping greenhouse gases, the oceans also warm and expand. Melting ice caps also contribute to higher sea levels.

Florida Real Estate: Property At Risk

Much of Florida’s critical infrastructure—including roads, railways, ports, airports, and oil and gas facilities—sits at low elevations, and large portions of Miami are built on porous limestone that allows seawater to inundate inland areas even in the presence of physical barriers. At Miami, mean sea level will likely rise 0.8 to 1.3 feet by 2050 and 2.0 to 3.6 feet by 2100.

Florida faces more risk than any other state that private, insurable property could be inundated by high tide, storm surge and sea level rise. By 2030, up to $69 billion in coastal property will likely be at risk of inundation at high tide that is not at risk today. By 2050, the value of property below local high tide levels will increase to up to about $152 billion. Even at mean sea level, losses will be substantial: By 2030, up to about $15 billion in coastal property will likely be flooded statewide. By 2050, the value of property below sea level will increase to as much as $23 billion.

Higher seas also lead to more destruction when storms hit, and Florida is the single most susceptible state in the nation to additional losses from storm damage. When storms batter Florida’s coast, higher seas will exacerbate storm surges and expand the reach of storm-related flooding. The storm-related losses attributed to climate change along the Florida shoreline are likely to increase by as much as $1.3 billion per year on average by 2030, and by as much as $4 billion annually by 2050, bringing Florida’s likely total annual storm damage to as much as $17.2 billion per year by midcentury. These numbers may well be too conservative, as they assume historical levels of hurricane activity, which may increase with climate change.

Heat

In addition to sea level rise, Florida is also likely to suffer severe economic impacts that result directly from rising temperatures. During the past 30 years, the typical Floridian has experienced an average of seven days per year with temperatures above 95°F. But by 2020-2039, that number is likely to reach up to 32 such days, and then reach up to 76 days per year by mid-century— more extremely hot days than any state besides Arizona experiences today.

Unlike Arizona, however, Florida is also likely to become vulnerable to a potentially deadly combination of heat and humidity. When experienced together, high levels of heat and humidity impair the human body’s natural ability to cool itself through perspiration. By the end of the century, Florida is likely to experience up to 24 days per year of “extremely dangerous” heat and humidity, with a 1-in-20 likelihood of reaching 35 of these days annually. Such conditions are comparable to the Chicago heat wave of 1995, which killed more than 700 people in six days.

Florida is particularly vulnerable to increases in summer temperatures because of its large share of elderly residents. About 18% of Florida’s population is above the age of 64, making it the state with the highest percentage of elderly residents—and therefore the highest likely increases in heat-related mortality—in the country. By 2020-2039, extreme heat driven by climate change will likely claim as many as 1,840 additional lives each year in Florida. And by mid-century, Florida is likely to suffer more heat-related deaths due to climate change than any other state, with as many as 5,080 additional annual deaths by 2040-2059, of which 90% are expected to affect people over age 64. That’s more than double the number of annual auto fatalities in Florida in 2013.⁵¹

Labor Productivity

Change In Labor Productivity

Higher temperatures, spurred by climate change, are likely to drive down labor productivity and overall quality of life in Florida. Extreme heat stress can induce heat exhaustion or heat stroke and can significantly reduce a person’s ability to carry out daily tasks. By midcentury, heat-related labor productivity declines across all sectors in Florida will likely cost the state economy up to $3.9 billion each year, with a 1-in-20 chance of costing more than $7 billion a year.

Workers in high-risk sectors such as agriculture, construction, utilities and manufacturing are among the most vulnerable to higher outdoor temperatures and, therefore, declining productivity. In 2011, about one in four Florida employees (about 23%) worked in one of these high-risk sectors.

Florida has had recent gains in labor productivity,⁵⁵ but these are at risk as a result of climate change. The state is likely to have among the steepest labor productivity penalties from warmer temperatures in the country, with likely up to a 1.5% drop by 2040-2059 and a 1-in-20 chance of a 2.4% drop.

Energy

As temperatures rise, Florida citizens and businesses are expected to require more air conditioning, which will lead to higher overall electricity demand. At the same time, power plants and transmission lines are known to become less efficient at very high temperatures. This combination of factors will likely require construction of additional power generation capacity to meet higher peak demand—which in turn will lead to higher electricity rates to cover the cost of new construction and transmission.

Florida consistently ranks among the top 10 states with the highest likely increases in electricity demand. By 2020-2039, rising electricity demand related solely to climate change is likely to increase residential and commercial energy expenditures by up to 9%. Those increases will likely grow to up to 19% by 2040-2059. Using future changes in temperature mapped against today’s U.S. energy market, this translates to higher statewide energy expenditures of $4.3 billion each year by mid-century, with a 1-in-20 chance of reaching more than $5.3 billion.

Heat

Many of the Peach State’s climate-related economic troubles will be rooted in rising temperatures driven by heat-trapping greenhouse gas emissions. Our research shows that Georgia will be among the states most severely harmed by temperature increases.

During the past 30 years, the typical Georgian has experienced an average of 11 days per year of temperatures above 95°F. But by 2020-2039, that number is likely to reach up to 33 such days and then reach up to 58 days per year by mid-century—more extreme heat than any states besides Arizona and Nevada experience today.

Temperature increases have real impacts on Americans’ lives. By 2020-2039, extreme heat driven by climate change will likely claim as many as 470 additional lives each year in Georgia. Annual additional heat-related deaths are likely to climb to up to 1040 by 2040-2059— nearly as many auto fatalities as Georgia suffered in 2013.

Labor Productivity

Higher temperatures, spurred by climate change, are likely to drive down labor productivity and overall quality of life in Georgia. Extreme heat stress can induce heat exhaustion or heat stroke and can significantly reduce a person’s ability to carry out daily tasks. By mid-century, heat-related labor productivity declines across all sectors in Georgia will likely cost the state economy up to $2 billion each year, with a 1-in-20 chance of costing more than $3.1 billion a year.

Workers in high-risk sectors such as agriculture, construction, utilities and manufacturing are among the most vulnerable to higher outdoor temperatures and, therefore, declining productivity. In 2011, almost one in three Georgia employees worked in one of these high-risk sectors. Georgia has had recent gains in labor productivity, but these are at risk as a result of climate change. The state will likely see up to a 0.5% penalty in high-risk labor productivity by 2020-2039, and up to a 1.2% penalty in the following 20 years.

Energy

Change In Energy Costs

As temperatures rise, Georgia citizens and businesses are expected to require more air conditioning, which will lead to higher overall electricity demand. At the same time, power plants and transmission lines are known to become less efficient at very high temperatures. This combination of factors will likely require construction of additional power generation capacity to meet higher peak demand, which in turn will lead to higher electricity rates to cover the cost of new construction and transmission.

Georgia households already use more electricity for air conditioning than the average American household, with 10% of home energy use dedicated to this purpose.⁵⁸ By 2020-2039, rising electricity demand related solely to climate change is likely to increase residential and commercial energy expenditures by up to 5%. Those increases will likely grow to up to 11% by 2040- 2059. Using future changes in temperature mapped against today’s U.S. energy market, this translates to higher statewide energy expenditures of $1.7 billion each year by mid-century.

Agriculture

Cotton, peanuts and corn are Georgia’s most valuable crop commodities, contributing to more than $1.6 billion in value production for 2014. In fact, Georgia is ranked first in acreage usage in peanut production nationwide and second in acreage use for cotton production.⁵⁹

Georgia faces significant climate risks to its commodity crop output if we stay on our current greenhouse gas emissions pathway. Our research focused on two specific climate impacts—changes in heat and precipitation—and their interaction with four major commodity crops in the Southeast: corn, soybeans, cotton and wheat. Crops are very sensitive to changes in their growing environment, particularly temperature. Small increases in temperatures may benefit plants; however, most crops have a specific threshold beyond which yields decline dramatically. Overall, impacts from climate-related temperature and precipitation changes are highly crop- and location-specific.

Though increased heat has the potential to depress yields, our analysis also takes into account the potential yield benefits from increasing carbon dioxide in the atmosphere, which can stimulate crop growth and potentially reduce or even offset yield declines. Some crops, such as wheat, respond more favorably to this “carbon fertilization” effect than do others, such as corn. On the other hand, our research does not take into account predicted climate-driven changes in water availability or changes in the prevalence and distribution of pests, weeds and diseases, which can further influence yield outcomes.

With an annual value of $237 million, corn is Georgia’s third most valuable crop.⁶⁰ Absent significant agricultural adaptation, corn yields will likely decrease by as much as 22% by 2020-2039 and 46% in the following 20 years. The state’s soybean crop is likely to drop by as much as 16% by 2020-2039 and 34% in the following 20 years.

On the other hand, cotton and wheat yields may benefit from the carbon fertilization effect, resulting in potential yield gains. Georgia is one of the nation’s largest cotton producers, with more than 2.5 million bales harvested in 2012. Absent adaptation, cotton yields face mixed potential outcomes, with likely impacts ranging from a 2% drop to a 9% gain by 2020-2039 and a 9% drop to an 18% gain by 2040-2059. Meanwhile, wheat will likely benefit from higher carbon dioxide levels and is more resistant to temperature increases.

Heat affects more in the agricultural sector than just crop yields, however. As the biggest producer of broilers in the country and home to Gainesville, the “poultry capital of the world,” Georgia faces risks to the 1.3 billion chickens it raises each year.⁶¹ Because poultry flocks can only tolerate narrow temperature ranges, higher temperatures can disrupt performance, production, and fertility, limiting a bird’s ability to produce meat or eggs. Higher temperatures can also increase animal mortality. In addition, climate change can affect the price and availability of water, feed grains and pasture, and change patterns of animal diseases. And because energy costs comprise more than 50% of growers’ cash expenses,⁶² higher energy costs due to climate change have the potential to put additional pressure on this sector.

Sea Level Rise

The Georgia coastline is 100 miles long and highly vulnerable to a changing climate. It is home to five major river basins, the city of Savannah, Fort Stewart, the ports of Savannah and Brunswick, and active forestry, manufacturing, and tourist industries. It also hosts the largest saltwater marsh estuary on the eastern seaboard, which protects the coast from storm damage and acts as a nursery for several commercial Atlantic fisheries.

As the atmosphere warms, the oceans warm and expand, causing sea levels to rise. Melting ice caps also contribute to higher sea levels. At Fort Pulaski, near the port of Savannah, mean sea level will likely rise 0.9 to 1.4 feet by 2050 and 2.2 to 3.8 feet by 2100.

Higher seas lead to more destruction when storms hit, exacerbating the impact of storm surges and expanding the reach of storm-related flooding. The storm-related losses attributed to climate change along the Georgia shoreline are likely to increase by as much as $118 million per year on average by 2030, and as much as $413 million annually by 2050, bringing the state’s likely total annual storm damage to as much as $1.1 billion per year by mid-century. And these numbers assume historical levels of hurricane activity, which may well increase with climate change.

Heat

Heat-Related Mortality (Additional Annual Deaths)

Many of Kentucky’s climate-related economic troubles will be rooted in rising temperatures. Climate change will likely increase summer and winter average temperatures, but the impact in Kentucky will be most evident in the number of days of extreme heat each year. During the past 30 years, the typical Kentuckian has experienced an average of 4 days per year of temperatures above 95°F. But by 2020-2039, that number is likely to reach up to 23 such days and then reach up to 44 days per year by mid-century—more extreme heat than Texas experiences today.

Temperature increases have real impacts on Americans’ lives. By 2020-2039, extreme heat driven by climate change will likely claim as many as 300 additional lives each year in Kentucky. Annual additional heat-related deaths due to climate change are likely to climb to as many as 460 by 2040-2059, with a 1-in-20 risk of more than 790 additional deaths. By comparison, Kentucky suffered 638 auto fatalities in 2013.⁶⁶

Rising temperatures will also indirectly impact Kentucky’s economy and its residents. Even seemingly small temperature increases can have profound effects on crop yields, labor productivity, and energy costs.

Agriculture

Change In Crop Yields

Known for its lush meadows and fertile soils, Kentucky has a thriving agricultural industry, with more than $5 billion of agricultural products sold in 2012.⁶⁷ The same calcium-rich soils that make Kentucky a major horse breeding state, along with abundant rain and moderate temperatures, provide excellent conditions for both livestock and crop production. With more than 76,000 farms covering 13 million acres of land, the state produces a variety of crops and a large amount of grain in addition for forage land used for hay. Soybeans, corn and hay are Kentucky’s most valuable commodity crops, with the state ranking 10th nationwide in forage land used for hay.⁶⁸

Kentucky faces significant climate risks to its commodity crop output if we stay on our current greenhouse gas emissions pathway. Our research focused on two specific climate impacts—changes in heat and precipitation—and their interaction with four major commodity crops in the Southeast: corn, soybeans, cotton and wheat. Crops are very sensitive to changes in their growing environment, particularly temperature. Small increases in temperatures may benefit plants; however, most crops have a specific threshold beyond which yields decline dramatically. Overall, impacts from climate-related temperature and precipitation changes are highly crop- and location-specific.

Though increased heat has the potential to depress yields, our analysis also takes into account the potential yield benefits from increasing carbon dioxide in the atmosphere, which can stimulate crop growth and potentially reduce or even offset yield declines. Some crops, such as wheat, respond more favorably to this “carbon fertilization” effect than others, such as corn. On the other hand, our research does not take into account predicted climate-driven changes in water availability or changes in the prevalence and distribution of pests, weeds and diseases, which can further influence yield outcomes.

Several of the state’s agricultural staples, including corn and soybeans, face severe risks from climate change, faring third in the country for projected overall yield losses. With a combined annual value of $1.7 billion,⁶⁹ corn and soybeans are Kentucky’s two most valuable agricultural commodities. Absent significant agricultural adaptation, state corn yields will likely decrease by up to 22% by 2020-2039 and by up to 47% in the following 20 years. Soybeans, the state’s most valuable crop, will likely see crop yield declines of up to 13% by 2020-2039 and by up to 29% by 2040-2059.

On the other hand, Kentucky wheat benefits more from the carbon fertilization effect than it is harmed by temperature increases. As a result, wheat yields are likely to increase over the course of the century as carbon dioxide concentrations continue to rise.

Heat affects more in the agricultural sector than just crop yields, however. About two-thirds of Kentucky’s agricultural economy is livestock, and the state ranks eighth nationally for broilers and 14th in beef cattle.⁷⁰ Both poultry and cattle can tolerate only narrow temperature ranges. Higher temperatures can disrupt performance, production and fertility, limiting an animal’s ability to produce meat or eggs. Higher temperatures can also increase animal mortality. In addition, climate change can affect the price and availability of water, feed grains and pasture, and change patterns of animal diseases. And because energy costs comprise more than 50% of growers’ cash expenses,⁷¹ higher energy costs due to climate change have the potential to put additional pressure on this sector.

Energy

As temperatures rise, Kentucky citizens and businesses are expected to require more air conditioning, which will lead to higher overall electricity demand. At the same time, power plants and transmission lines are known to become less efficient at very high temperatures. This combination of factors will likely require construction of additional power generation capacity to meet higher peak demand, which, in turn, will lead to higher electricity rates to cover the cost of new construction and transmission.

By 2020-2039, rising electricity demand related solely to climate change is likely to increase residential and commercial energy expenditures by up to 5%. Those increases will likely grow to up to 9% by 2040-2059. Using future changes in temperature mapped against today’s U.S. energy market, this translates to higher statewide energy expenditures of $454 million each year by mid-century. As one of the top 10 states with the highest energy use per dollar of GSP, Kentucky may feel the impacts of energy costs significantly, with energy-intensive sectors such as aluminum production taking the biggest hit.

Labor Productivity

Higher temperatures, spurred by climate change, are likely to drive down labor productivity and overall quality of life in Kentucky. Extreme heat stress can induce heat exhaustion or heat stroke and can significantly reduce a person’s ability to carry out daily tasks. By mid-century, heat-related labor productivity declines across all sectors in Kentucky will likely cost the state economy up to $770 million each year, with a 1-in-20 chance of costing more than $1.1 billion a year.

Workers in high-risk sectors such as agriculture, construction, utilities and manufacturing are among the most vulnerable to higher outdoor temperatures and, therefore, declining productivity. In 2011, about one in three Kentucky employees (33%) worked in one of these high-risk sectors.

Kentucky has had recent gains in labor productivity,⁷² but these are at risk as a result of climate change. The state is likely to have among the steepest high-risk labor productivity penalties from warmer temperatures, with up to a 0.5% penalty by 2020-2039, and up to a 1.1% penalty in the following 20 years.

Sea Level Rise

Louisiana faces the highest rate of sea level rise in the U.S.⁷⁵ At Grand Isle, for instance, mean sea level will likely rise 1.9 to 2.4 feet by 2050 and 4.1 to 5.8 feet by 2100 if we continue on our current emissions path. Rising seas are a particular issue for this state, where much of the critical infrastructure—including roads, railways, ports, airports, and oil and gas facilities—sits at low elevations or even below sea level. Higher sea levels are caused by rising temperatures: As the atmosphere warms due to heat-trapping greenhouse gases, the oceans also warm and expand. Melting ice caps also contribute to higher sea levels.

Louisiana’s abundance of low-lying coastal infrastructure and its very high rate of coastal erosion and wetland loss make the state uniquely vulnerable to sea level rise.⁷⁶ By 2030, between $26 billion and $35.5 billion worth of Louisiana coastal property will likely be at risk of inundation during high tide. In the 1-in-20 probability range, expected damage expands only slightly to between $25.9 billion and $36.9 billion. The very high risks that Louisiana faces in the short term are because a certain amount of sea level rise is already “baked in” due to past greenhouse gas emissions. Significant damage to coastal property is very probable unless the state takes drastic action to mitigate these risks.

Louisiana Real Estate: Property At Risk

Mean sea level impacts are similarly dire: up to about $20 billion in Louisiana coastal property will likely be below mean sea level, with a 1-in-20 chance that $22.5 billion will be at risk. By 2050, the value of property below mean sea level will likely increase to as much as $44.8 billion, with a 1-in-20 chance of $51.2 billion in property at risk.

Higher seas also lead to more destruction when storms hit, expanding the reach and impact of storm surges and related flooding. The storm-related losses attributed to climate change along the Louisiana shoreline are likely to increase by up to $275 million per year on average by 2030, and by up to $650 million annually by 2050, bringing the state’s likely total annual storm damage to as much as $2.8 billion per year by mid-century. These numbers may well be too conservative, as they assume historical levels of hurricane activity, which may increase with climate change.

Heat

Heat-Related Mortality (Additional Annual Deaths)

In addition to sea level rise, Louisiana is also likely to suffer severe economic impacts from rising temperatures. During the past 30 years, the typical Louisianan has experienced an average of 12 days per year with temperatures above 95°F. By 2020-2039, that number is likely to reach up to 52 extremely hot days, and then reach up to 82 days per year by mid-century.

As it experiences more extreme heat, Louisiana is also likely to become vulnerable to a potentially deadly combination of heat and humidity. When experienced together, high levels of heat and humidity impair the human body’s natural ability to cool itself through perspiration. By the end of the century, Louisiana is likely to experience up to 30 days per year of “extremely dangerous” heat and humidity, with a 1-in-20 chance of experiencing more than 52 such days. Such conditions are comparable to the Chicago heat wave of 1995, which killed more than 700 people in a single week.⁷⁷

Temperature increases have real impacts on Americans’ lives. By 2020-2039, extreme heat driven by climate change will likely claim as many as 440 additional lives each year in Louisiana. Annual additional heat-related deaths are likely to climb to as many as 920 by 2040- 2059. By comparison, annual auto fatalities in Louisiana were 703 in 2013.⁷⁸

Labor Productivity

Energy

As temperatures rise, Louisiana citizens and businesses are expected to need more air conditioning, which will lead to higher overall electricity demand. At the same time, power plants and transmission lines generally become less efficient and effective in the extreme heat. This combination of factors will likely require construction of additional power generation capacity to meet higher peak demand; this in turn will lead to higher electricity rates to cover the cost of new construction and transmission.

Louisiana consistently ranks among the top 10 states with the highest likely increases in electricity demand due to climate change, assuming we stay on our current emission pathway. By 2020-2039, rising electricity demand related solely to climate change is likely to increase residential and commercial energy expenditures by up to 9%. Those increases will likely grow to up to 14% by 2040-2059. Using future changes in temperature mapped against today’s U.S. energy market, this translates to higher statewide energy expenditures of $707 million each year by mid-century.

Agriculture

Change in Crop Yields

Louisiana’s abundant water supplies, fertile soils and subtropical climate create a diverse agricultural economy. Soybeans, rice, corn, hay and cotton are some of the state’s most valuable commodity crops, contributing about $1.9 billion to production value in 2014. Sugarcane and rice are also influential economic drivers for Louisiana. In fact, the state ranks second in acreage usage for sugarcane production nationwide and third in acreage usage for rice production nationwide.⁷⁹

Louisiana faces significant climate risks to its commodity crop output if we stay on our current greenhouse gas emissions pathway. Our research focused on two specific climate impacts–changes in heat and precipitation– and their interaction with four major commodity crops in the Southeast: corn, soybeans, cotton and wheat. Crops are very sensitive to changes in their growing environment, particularly temperature. Small increases in temperatures may benefit plants; however, most crops have a specific threshold beyond which yields decline dramatically. Overall, impacts from climate-related temperature and precipitation changes are highly crop- and location-specific.

Though increased heat has the potential to depress yields, our analysis also takes into account the potential yield benefits from increasing carbon dioxide in the atmosphere, which can stimulate crop growth and potentially reduce or even offset yield declines. Some crops, such as wheat, respond more favorably to this “carbon fertilization” effect than others, such as corn. On the other hand, our research does not take into account predicted climate-driven changes in water availability or changes in the prevalence and distribution of pests, weeds and diseases, which can further influence yield outcomes.

With over a million acres grown in the state and an annual value of $881 million,⁸⁰ soybeans are the most valuable crop in Louisiana. By 2020-2039, Louisiana’s soybean yields are likely to decrease by up to 22%, absent significant agricultural adaptation, with likely yield losses increasing to up to 39% by 2040-2059.

Corn—Louisiana’s third most valuable crop, with an annual value of $296 million⁸¹—faces even greater likely yield declines. Absent significant adaptation, the state’s corn crop is likely to decrease by as much as one-fourth (26%) by 2020-2039, and by as much as half (51%) by 2040-2059. Meanwhile, the state’s signature cotton crop is likely to drop by as much as 23% by 2040-2059.

On the other hand, Louisiana wheat benefits more from the carbon fertilization effect than it is harmed by temperature increases. As a result, wheat yields are likely to increase over the course of the century as carbon dioxide concentrations continue to rise.

These yield declines can result in high economic costs. By mid-century, the overall likely impacts of climate change on grain, oilseed, and cotton yields to the state economy span gains ($44 million per year) to losses ($552 million per year, with a 1-in-20 chance of more than $668 million in losses) due to the potential for economic gains from increases in yields. However, as corn and soybeans are in the top three crops grown in the state, overall likely losses are larger than gains.

Heat

Many of the Magnolia State’s climate-related economic troubles will be rooted in rising temperatures driven by heat-trapping greenhouse gas emissions. In fact, our research shows that Mississippi will be among the states most severely harmed by temperature increases.

During the past 30 years, the typical Mississippian has experienced an average of 13 days per year of temperatures above 95°F. But by 2020-2039, that number is likely to reach up to 56 such days, and then reach up to 85 days per year by mid-century—more extreme heat than any state besides Arizona experiences today.

Temperature increases have real impacts on Americans’ lives. By 2020-2039, extreme heat driven by climate change will likely claim as many as 260 additional lives each year in Mississippi. Annual additional heat related deaths are likely to climb to 570 by 2040-2059— exceeding the number of auto fatalities that Mississippi suffered in 2013.⁸⁷

Labor Productivity

Heat-Related Mortality (Additional Annual Deaths)

Higher temperatures, spurred by climate change, are likely to drive down labor productivity and overall quality of life in Mississippi. Extreme heat stress can induce heat exhaustion or heat stroke and can significantly reduce a person’s ability to carry out daily tasks. By mid-century, heat-related labor productivity declines across all sectors in Mississippi will likely cost the state economy up to $784 million each year, with a 1-in-20 chance of costing more than $1.3 billion a year.

Workers in high-risk sectors such as agriculture, construction, utilities, and manufacturing are among the most vulnerable to higher outdoor temperatures and thus declining productivity. In 2011, one in three Mississippi employees worked in one of these high-risk sectors.

Mississippi has had recent gains in labor productivity,⁸⁸ but these are at risk as a result of climate change. The state is amongst the top five states in the country likely to have the steepest high-risk labor productivity penalties from warmer temperatures, with up to a 0.8% penalty by 2020- 2039, and up to a 1.6% penalty in the following 20 years.

Energy

Change In Energy Costs

As temperatures rise, Mississippi citizens and businesses are expected to require more air conditioning, which will lead to higher overall electricity demand. At the same time, power plants and transmission lines are known to become less efficient at very high temperatures. This combination of factors will likely require construction of additional power generation capacity to meet higher peak demand, which in turn will lead to higher electricity rates to cover the cost of new construction and transmission.

By 2020-2039, rising electricity demand related solely to climate change is likely to increase residential and commercial energy expenditures by up to 6%. Those increases will likely grow to up to 13% by 2040-2059. Using future changes in temperature mapped against today’s U.S. energy market, this translates to higher statewide energy expenditures of $481 million each year by mid-century.

Agriculture

Change in Crop Yields

Soybeans, corn, cotton and rice are Mississippi’s most valuable crop commodities, having contributed about $2.2 billion to production value in 2014. In fact, Mississippi ranks fifth in acreage use for cotton production nationwide.⁸⁹

Mississippi faces significant climate risks to its commodity crop output if we stay on our current greenhouse gas emissions pathway. Our research focused on two specific climate impacts—changes in heat and precipitation—and their interaction with four major commodity crops in the Southeast: corn, soybeans, cotton and wheat. Crops are very sensitive to changes in their growing environment, particularly temperature. Small increases in temperatures may benefit plants; however, most crops have a specific threshold beyond which yields decline dramatically. Overall, impacts from climate-related temperature and precipitation changes are highly crop- and location-specific.

Though increased heat has the potential to depress yields, our analysis also takes into account the potential yield benefits from increasing carbon dioxide in the atmosphere, which can stimulate crop growth and potentially reduce or even offset yield declines. Some crops, such as wheat, respond more favorably to this “carbon fertilization” effect than others, such as corn. On the other hand, our research does not take into account predicted climate-driven changes in water availability or changes in the prevalence and distribution of pests, weeds and diseases, which can further influence yield outcomes.

With an annual value of $1.3 billion,⁹⁰ soybeans are Mississippi’s most valuable crop. Absent significant agricultural adaptation, soybean yields will likely decrease by as much as 17% by 2020-2039 and as much as 42% in the following 20 years.

Other commodity crops will also suffer yield losses. Mississippi is one of the nation’s largest cotton producers, with nearly one million bales harvested in 2012.⁹¹ But, absent adaptation, that output will likely drop by as much as 7% by 2020-2039 and as much as 20% by 2040-2059. The state’s corn crop is likely to drop by as much as 27% by 2020-2039 and as much as 56% in the following 20 years.

On the other hand, Mississippi wheat benefits more from the carbon fertilization effect than it is harmed by temperatures increases. As a result, wheat yields are likely to increase over the course of the century as carbon dioxide concentrations continue to rise.

These yield declines can result in high economic costs. By mid-century, the overall likely impacts of climate change on grain, oilseed and cotton yields to the state economy span gains ($109 million per year) to losses ($800 million per year, with a 1-in-20 chance of more than $1.0 billion in losses) due to the potential for economic gains from increases in yields. As corn, cotton and soybeans are the top three crops grown in the state, overall likely losses are larger than gains.

Sea Level Rise

Another important effect of rising heat is higher sea levels. As the atmosphere warms, the oceans warm and expand. Melting ice caps also contribute to higher sea levels. Higher seas lead to more destruction when storms hit, exacerbating the impact of storm surges and expanding the reach of storm-related flooding.

The storm-related losses attributed to climate change along the Mississippi shoreline are likely to increase by up to $54 million per year on average by 2030, and up to nearly $132 million annually by 2050, bringing the state’s likely total annual storm damage to as much as $912 million per year by mid-century. And these numbers assume historical levels of hurricane activity, which may well increase with climate change.

Heat

Many of North Carolina’s climate-related economic troubles will be rooted in rising temperatures driven by heat-trapping greenhouse gas emissions. While climate change will likely increase summer and winter average temperatures, the impact in North Carolina will be most evident in the number of days of extreme heat each year. Over the past three decades, the typical North Carolinian has experienced an average of seven days per year of temperatures above 95°F. That number is likely to more than triple to as many as 24 such days by 2020-2039, and as many as 39 days per year by mid-century. There is a 1-in-20 chance that North Carolina will experience more than 56 days of extreme heat by mid-century—almost two full months of temperatures above 95°F.

Heat-Related Mortality (Additional Annual Deaths)

Temperature increases have real impacts on Americans’ lives. In North Carolina, extreme heat driven by climate change will likely claim up to 500 additional lives each year by 2020-2039 and up to 930 additional lives by 2040-2059, with a 1-in-20 chance of claiming more than 1510 lives. By comparison, there were 1289 auto fatalities in North Carolina in 2013.⁹⁵

Rising temperatures will also indirectly impact North Carolina’s larger economy. In particular, even seemingly small temperature increases can have profound effects on crop yields, labor productivity, coastal infrastructure, and energy costs.

Sea Level Rise

Another important effect of rising heat is higher sea levels. As the atmosphere warms, the oceans warm and expand. Melting ice caps also contribute to higher sea levels. North Carolina is among the top 10 states with the highest anticipated damage from coastal storms. If we continue on our current emissions path, mean sea level at Wilmington will likely rise 0.8 to 1.4 feet by 2050 and 1.9 to 3.6 feet by 2100. Higher seas lead to more destruction when storms hit, exacerbating the impact of storm surges and expanding the reach of storm-related flooding. The storm-related losses attributed to climate change along the North Carolina shoreline are likely to increase by up to $138 million per year on average by 2030, and up to $512 million annually by 2050, bringing the state’s likely total annual storm damage to more than $1.3 billion per year by mid-century. And these numbers assume historical levels of hurricane activity, which may well increase with climate change.

Even on a day without storms, parts of North Carolina will likely be inundated with water in the coming decades due to rising sea levels. By 2030, up to $4.4 billion in coastal property is likely to be flooded at high tide. By 2050, the value of property below the mean high water mark will likely increase to up to $5.6 billion, with a 1-in-20 chance of more than $12.5 billion.

Agriculture

Labor Productivity

Energy

As temperatures rise, North Carolina citizens and businesses are expected to require more air conditioning, which will lead to higher overall electricity demand. At the same time, power plants and transmission lines are known to become less efficient at very high temperatures. This combination of factors will likely require construction of additional power generation capacity to meet higher peak demand, which, in turn, will lead to higher electricity rates to cover the cost of new construction and transmission.

By 2020-2039, rising electricity demand related solely to climate change is likely to increase residential and commercial energy expenditures by up to 5% in North Carolina. Those increases will likely grow to as much as 8% by 2040-2059. Using future changes in temperature mapped against today’s U.S. energy market, this translates to higher statewide energy expenditures of $997 million each year by mid-century.

Heat

Many of South Carolina’s climate-related economic troubles will be rooted in rising temperatures driven by heat-trapping greenhouse gas emissions. While climate change will likely increase both summer and winter average temperature, the impact in South Carolina will be most evident in the number of days of extreme heat each year. Over the past three decades, the typical South Carolinian has experienced an average of 14 days per year of temperatures above 95°F. That number is likely to more than double to as many as 36 such days by 2020-2039, and as many as 58 days per year by mid-century.

Temperature increases have real impacts on Americans’ lives. In South Carolina, extreme heat driven by climate change will likely claim as many as 310 additional lives each year by 2020-2039 and as many as 680 additional lives by 2040-2059. By comparison, there were 767 auto fatalities in South Carolina in 2013.¹⁰²

Rising temperatures will also indirectly impact South Carolina’s economy and its residents. Even seemingly small temperature increases can have profound effects on crop yields, labor productivity, coastal infrastructure, and energy costs.

Sea Level Rise

Coastal Storm Damage (Additional)

Another important effect of rising heat is higher sea levels. As the atmosphere warms, the oceans warm and expand. Melting ice caps also contribute to higher sea levels. South Carolina is among the states with the highest anticipated damage from coastal storms, following only Florida, New York, New Jersey, Louisiana and Texas.

If we continue on our current emissions path, mean sea level at Charleston will likely rise 0.9 to 1.4 feet by 2050 and 2.1 to 3.8 feet by 2100. Higher seas lead to more destruction when storms hit, exacerbating the impact of storm surges and expanding the reach of storm-related flooding. The storm-related losses attributed to climate change along the South Carolina coast are likely to increase by up to $213 million per year on average by 2030, and to up to nearly $743 million annually by 2050, bringing the state’s likely total annual storm damage to more than $1.6 billion per year by mid-century. And these numbers assume historical levels of hurricane activity, which may well increase with climate change.

Coastal storm damage poses a significant threat to South Carolina’s tourism industry. South Carolina’s beaches alone generate about $3.5 billion annually and support 81,000 jobs. Other outdoor recreation activities such as fishing, hunting and wildlife viewing contribute an additional $2.2 billion annually to South Carolina’s economy and support nearly 59,000 jobs.¹⁰³

Even on a day without storms, parts of South Carolina will likely be inundated with water in the coming decades due to rising sea levels. By 2050, the value of property below the mean high water mark will likely increase to up to $5.7 billion.

Agriculture

Labor Productivity

Heat-Related Mortality (Additional Annual Deaths)

Higher temperatures, spurred by climate change, are likely to drive down both productivity and quality of life in South Carolina. Extreme heat stress can induce heat exhaustion or heat stroke and can significantly reduce a person’s ability to carry out daily tasks. By mid-century, heat-related labor productivity will likely decline across all sectors in South Carolina and will likely cost the economy up to $802 million statewide each year, with a 1-in-20 likelihood of costing more than $1.2 billion.

Workers in high-risk sectors such as agriculture, construction, utilities and manufacturing are among the most vulnerable to higher outdoor temperatures and therefore to declining productivity. In 2011, nearly one in three South Carolina employees (about 30%) worked in one of these high-risk sectors.

South Carolina labor productivity has been trending upwards in recent decades,¹⁰⁶ but climate change could jeopardize these gains. South Carolina is likely to experience up to a 0.6% decrease in labor productivity due to rising temperatures by 2020-2039, and up to a 1.1% drop in the following 20 years.

Energy

As temperatures rise, South Carolina citizens and businesses are expected to require more air conditioning, which will lead to higher overall electricity demand. At the same time, power plants and transmission lines are known to become less efficient at very high temperatures. This combination of factors will likely require construction of additional power generation capacity to meet higher peak demand, which in turn will lead to higher electricity rates to cover the cost of new construction and transmission.

By 2020-2039, rising electricity demand related solely to climate change is likely to increase residential and commercial energy expenditures by up to 5% in South Carolina. Those increases will likely grow to up to 11% by 2040-2059. Using future changes in temperature mapped against today’s U.S. energy market, this translates to higher statewide energy expenditures of $637 million each year by mid-century.

Heat

Many of Tennessee’s climate-related economic troubles will be rooted in rising temperatures driven by heat-trapping greenhouse gas emissions. While climate change will likely increase both summer and winter average temperatures, the impact in Tennessee will be most evident in the number of days of extreme heat each year. Since 1980, the typical Tennessean has experienced an average of seven days per year of temperatures above 95°F. By 2020-2039, that number is likely to more than quadruple to as many as 29 such days, and as many as 54 days per year by mid-century.

Temperature increases have real impacts on Americans’ lives. In Tennessee, extreme heat driven by climate change will likely claim up to 430 additional lives each year by 2020-2039 and up to 770 lives by 2040-2059. By comparison, there were 995 auto fatalities in Tennessee in 2013.¹¹¹

Rising temperatures will also indirectly impact Tennessee’s economy and its residents. Even seemingly small temperature increases can have profound effects on crop yields, labor productivity, and energy costs.

Agriculture

Change In Crop Yields

Currently, Tennessee has more than 79,000 farms, which cover more than 40% of the state’s land area.¹¹² These farms produce a wide range of commodities, from cattle to soybeans to timber. In fact, Tennessee leads the nation in the production of hardwood flooring and is one of the country’s top timber exporters.¹¹³

Tennessee faces significant climate risks to its commodity crop output if we stay on our current greenhouse gas emissions pathway. Our research focused on two specific climate impacts—changes in heat and precipitation—and their interaction with four major commodity crops in the Southeast: corn, soybeans, cotton and wheat. Crops are very sensitive to changes in their growing environment, particularly temperature. Small increases in temperatures may benefit plants; however, most crops have a specific threshold beyond which yields decline dramatically. Overall, impacts from climate-related temperature and precipitation changes are highly crop- and location-specific.

Though increased heat has the potential to depress yields, our analysis also takes into account the potential yield benefits from increasing carbon dioxide in the atmosphere, which can stimulate crop growth and potentially reduce or even offset yield declines. Some crops, such as wheat, respond more favorably to this “carbon fertilization” effect than others, such as corn. On the other hand, our research does not take into account predicted climate-driven changes in water availability or changes in the prevalence and distribution of pests, weeds and diseases, which can further influence yield outcomes.

Planted heavily in west Tennessee, soybeans are the state’s most valuable crop, with $785 million of production in 2014.¹¹⁴ Absent significant agricultural adaptation, soybean yields will likely decrease by as much as 12% by 2020-2039 and by as much as 31% by 2040- 2059. Tennessee’s second most valuable crop, corn, will likely experience even steeper production declines. Corn output will likely drop by as much as 22% by 2020- 2039 and by as much as 47% by mid-century.

On the other hand, some crops in Tennessee (such as wheat and cotton) are likely to see yield increases as carbon dioxide concentrations continue to rise.

Labor Productivity

Higher temperatures, spurred by climate change, are likely to drive down both productivity and quality of life in Tennessee. Extreme heat stress can induce heat exhaustion or heat stroke and can significantly reduce a person’s ability to carry out daily tasks. By mid-century, heat-related labor productivity declines across all sectors in Tennessee will likely cost the economy up to $1.3 billion statewide each year, with a 1-in-20 likelihood of more than $2.0 billion.

Tennessee labor productivity has been trending upwards in recent decades,¹¹⁵ but climate change could jeopardize these gains. Workers in high-risk sectors such as agriculture, construction, utilities and manufacturing are among the most vulnerable to higher outdoor temperatures and therefore to declining productivity.

In 2011, nearly one in three Tennessee employees (about 31%) worked in one of these high-risk sectors. As a result, Tennessee is likely to experience up to a 0.6% decrease in high-risk labor productivity due to rising temperatures by 2020-2039, and up to a 1.2% drop in the following 20 years.

Energy

As temperatures rise, Tennessee citizens and businesses are expected to require more air conditioning, which will lead to higher overall electricity demand. At the same time, power plants and transmission lines are known to become less efficient at very high temperatures. This combination of factors will likely require construction of additional power generation capacity to meet higher peak demand, which, in turn, will lead to higher electricity rates to cover the cost of new con- struction and transmission.

Residents of Tennessee currently benefit from a cost of electricity that is below the national average. But by 2020-2039, rising electricity demand related solely to climate change is likely to increase residential and commercial energy expenditures by up to 5% in Tennessee. Those increases will likely grow to up to 10% by 2040- 2059. Using future changes in temperature mapped against today’s U.S. energy market, this translates to higher statewide energy expenditures of $777 million each year by mid-century. For a state that uses more energy per dollar of gross state product than more than half the states, these cost increases have the potential to ripple throughout the economy.

Heat

Many of the Lone Star State’s climate-related economic troubles will be rooted in rising temperatures driven by heat-trapping greenhouse gas emissions. Texas will be among the states most severely harmed by temperature increases.

While climate change likely will increase both summer and winter average temperatures, the impact in Texas will be most evident in the number of days of extreme heat each year. During the past 30 years, the typical Texan has experienced an average of 43 days per year of temperatures above 95°F. But by mid-century, that number is likely to reach up to 80 such days, and to reach up to 106 days per year by 2040-2059—more extreme heat than any state besides Arizona experiences today.

Temperature increases have real impacts on Americans’ lives. By 2020-2039, extreme heat driven by climate change will likely claim more than 2,570 additional lives each year in Texas—the highest total number of heat-related deaths for any state. Annual additional heat-related deaths are likely to climb to more than 4,500 by 2040-2059. By comparison, annual auto fatalities in Texas were roughly 3,400 in 2013.¹²²

Rising temperatures will also affect Texas’ wider economy. Our research shows that even seemingly small temperature increases can have profound effects on energy costs, crop yields, labor productivity and coastal infrastructure.

Labor Productivity

Heat-Related Mortality (Additional Annual Deaths)

Higher temperatures, spurred by climate change, are likely to drive down both productivity and quality of life in Texas. Extreme heat stress can induce heat exhaustion or heat stroke and can significantly reduce a person’s ability to carry out daily tasks. By mid-century, heat-related labor productivity will decline across all sectors in Texas, and will likely cost the economy up to $12.5 billion statewide each year, with a 1-in-20 likelihood of costing more than $19.6 billion annually.

Workers in high-risk sectors such as agriculture, construction, utilities and manufacturing are among the most vulnerable to higher outdoor temperatures and therefore to declining productivity. In 2011, more than one in three Texas employees (about 38%) worked in one of these high-risk sectors.

Texas has had recent gains in labor productivity, but these are at risk as a result of climate change. The state is likely to have the steepest labor productivity penalty from warmer temperatures of any state, with up to a 1.1% drop by 2020-2039 and up to a 1.7% drop in the following 20 years.

Energy

Change In Energy Costs

As temperatures rise, Texas citizens and businesses are expected to require more air conditioning, which will lead to higher overall electricity demand. At the same time, power plants and transmission lines are known to become less efficient at very high temperatures. This combination of factors will likely require construction of additional power generation capacity to meet higher peak demand, which, in turn, will lead to higher electricity rates to cover the cost of new construction and transmission.

Texas consistently ranks among the top 10 states with the highest likely increases in electricity demand. By 2020-2039, rising electricity demand related solely to climate change is likely to increase residential and commercial energy expenditures by up to 7%. Those increases will likely grow to up to 12% by 2040-2059. Using future changes in temperature mapped against today’s U.S. energy market, this translates to higher statewide energy expenditures of $3.7 billion each year by mid-century, with a 1-in-20 chance of increases of just under $5.3 billion.

Agriculture

Sea Level Rise

Coastal Storm Damage (Additional)

Another important effect of rising heat is higher sea levels. As the atmosphere warms, the oceans warm and expand. Melting ice caps also contribute to higher sea levels. The largest sea level rise in the U.S. is expected to occur in the western Gulf of Mexico, as rising waters combine with sinking land due to groundwater withdrawal, erosion and sediment compaction.

If we continue on our current emissions path, mean sea level at Galveston will likely rise 1.5 to 2.0 feet by 2050 and 3.2 to 4.9 feet by 2100. Higher seas lead to more destruction when storms hit, exacerbating the impact of storm surges and expanding the reach of storm-related flooding. The storm-related losses attributed to climate change along the Texas shoreline are likely to increase by up to $222 million per year on average by 2030, and up to nearly $650 million annually by 2050, bringing the state’s likely total annual storm damage to more than $3.9 billion per year by mid-century. And these numbers assume historical levels of hurricane activity, which may well increase with climate change.

Even on a calm day, parts of Texas will likely be inundated with water in the coming decades due to rising sea levels: $20.9 billion in Texas coastal property is likely to be flooded at high tide by 2030. By 2050, the value of property below the mean high water mark will increase to nearly $30 billion.

Heat

Many of Virginia’s climate-related economic troubles will be rooted in rising temperatures driven by heat-trapping greenhouse gas emissions. While climate change will likely increase both summer and winter average temperatures, the impact in Virginia will be most evident in the number of days of extreme heat each year. Over the past three decades, the typical Virginian has experienced an average of about six days per year of temperatures above 95°F. That number is likely to more than triple to as many as 20 such days by 2020- 2039 and as many as 33 days per year by mid-century.

Temperature increases have significant impacts on Americans’ lives. In Virginia, extreme heat driven by climate change will likely claim as many as 420 additional lives each year by 2020-2039, and as many as 580 additional lives by 2040-2059. By comparison, there were 740 auto fatalities in Virginia in 2013.¹²⁹

Rising temperatures will also indirectly impact Virginia’s economy and its residents. Even seemingly small temperature increases can have profound effects on crop yields, labor productivity, coastal infrastructure and energy costs.

Sea Level Rise

Virginia Real Estate: Property At Risk

Another critical effect of rising heat is higher sea levels. As the atmosphere warms, the oceans warm and expand. Melting ice caps also contribute to higher sea levels. Higher seas lead to more destruction when storms hit, exacerbating the impact of storm surges and expanding the reach of storm-related flooding. Twenty-seven of the United States’ military bases are located in Virginia.

If we continue on our current emissions path, mean sea level at Norfolk will likely rise 1.1 to 1.7 feet by 2050 and 2.5 to 4.4 feet by 2100. Higher seas often lead to a greater likelihood of infrastructure damages, exacerbating the impact of storm surges and expanding the reach of storm-related flooding. The storm-related losses attributed to climate change along the Virginia shoreline are likely to increase by up to $135 million by 2030 and up to $522 million by 2050. And these numbers assume historical levels of hurricane activity, which may well increase with climate change.

Even on a day without storms, parts of Virginia will likely be inundated with water in the coming decades due to rising sea levels. As much as $139 million in property will likely be below local mean sea level by 2030, increasing to as much as $306 million by 2050. The impacts of these various risks to military infrastructure could lead to dangerous economic consequences.

Agriculture

Virginia’s most valuable crop commodities are hay, soybeans, corn and tobacco. Combined, these four crops contributed about $922 million in production value in 2014.

Virginia faces significant climate risks to its commodity crop output if we stay on our current greenhouse gas emissions pathway. Our research focused on two specific climate impacts—changes in heat and precipitation–and their interaction with four major commodity crops in the Southeast: corn, soybeans, cotton and wheat. Crops are very sensitive to changes in their growing environment, particularly temperature. Small increases in temperatures may benefit plants; however, most crops have a specific threshold beyond which yields decline dramatically. Overall, impacts from climate-related temperature and precipitation changes are highly crop- and location-specific.

Though increased heat has the potential to depress yields, our analysis also takes into account the potential yield benefits from increasing carbon dioxide in the atmosphere, which can stimulate crop growth and potentially reduce or even offset yield declines. Some crops, such as wheat, respond more favorably to this “carbon fertilization” effect than others, such as corn. On the other hand, our research does not take into account predicted climate-driven changes in water availability or changes in the prevalence and distribution of pests, weeds and diseases, which can further influence yield outcomes.

With a combined annual value of $457 million, corn and soybeans are Virginia’s two most valuable agricultural commodities after hay.¹³⁰ Absent significant agricultural adaptation, corn yields will likely decrease by up to 17% by 2020-2039 and up to 33% in the following 20 years. Meanwhile, soybean yields will likely drop by up to 9% by 2020-2039 and up to 16% by 2040-2059.

On the other hand, Virginia wheat and cotton benefit more from the “carbon fertilization” effect than they are harmed by temperature increases. As a result, wheat and cotton yields are likely to increase over the course of the century as carbon dioxide concentrations continue to rise.

Labor Productivity

Heat-Related Mortality (Additional Annual Deaths)

Higher temperatures, spurred by climate change, are likely to drive down both productivity and quality of life in Virginia. Extreme heat stress can induce heat exhaustion or heat stroke and can significantly reduce a person’s ability to carry out daily tasks. By mid-century, heat-related labor productivity declines across all sectors in Virginia will likely cost the economy up to $1.1 billion statewide each year, with a 1-in-20 likelihood of costing more than $1.7 billion.

Workers in high-risk sectors such as agriculture, construction, utilities, and manufacturing are among the most vulnerable to higher outdoor temperatures and therefore declining productivity. In 2011, one in five employees worked in one of these high-risk sectors. Virginia is likely to experience up to a 0.4% decrease in labor productivity due to rising temperatures by 2020-2039 and up to a 0.8% drop in the next 20 years.

Energy

As temperatures rise, Virginians and their businesses are expected to require more air conditioning, which will lead to higher overall electricity demand and consumption. At the same time, power plants and transmission lines are known to become less efficient at very high temperatures. This combination of factors will likely require construction of additional power generation capacity to meet higher peak demand, which, in turn, will lead to higher electricity rates to cover the cost of new construction and transmission.

By 2020-2039, rising electricity demand related solely to climate change is likely to increase residential and commercial energy expenditures by up to 5% in Virginia. Those increases will likely grow to up to 8% by 2040- 2059. Using future changes in temperature mapped against today’s U.S. energy market, this translates to higher statewide energy expenditures of $815 million each year by mid-century.