Former first lady Michelle Obama would enter the 2020 Democratic New Hampshire primary race as the frontrunner, a new Franklin Pierce University-Boston Herald poll has found — though so far she’s insisted she won’t.
The poll, conducted Oct. 9-13, has Elizabeth Warren and Joe Biden tied in the lead of the current Democratic field in the Granite State primary, with Bernie Sanders slightly behind.
“Today, the Democratic race is a statistical dead heat between Warren (25%), Biden (24%) and Sanders (22%),” pollster R. Kelly Myers wrote in his summary of the poll results.
“If Michelle Obama were to enter the race, it would change things dramatically,” Myers wrote. “Twenty-six percent of Democrats would vote for her, making her the new frontrunner. Under this scenario, Obama (26%) would lead Warren (20%), (Biden (20%) and Sanders (15%). She would take away 4 points from Warren, 4 points from Biden and 7 points from Sanders.”
Obama has shrugged off the notion of running so far.
“Just between us, and the readers of this magazine — there’s zero chance,” Obama told The National, Amtrak’s travel and culture magazine, in August. “There are so many ways to improve this country and build a better world, and I keep doing plenty of them, from working with young people to helping families lead healthier lives. But sitting behind the desk in the Oval Office will never be one of them. It’s just not for me.”
The FPU-Herald poll has some news that might disgruntle President Trump. He still strong among Republicans, with his overall 81 percent job approval, down 2 points from early September.
“However, the percentage of Republican voters who would vote for Trump if the primary were held today was 88 percent a month ago, and 71 percent today, a 17-point decline,” Myers wrote. “Former Massachusetts Governor Bill Weld’s support increased from 3 percent in early September to 14 percent today.” Myers said Weld’s growth appears to be coming from independents who are moving away from Trump.
Another anti-Trumper, former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney, would attract 12 percent if he were to enter the race.
The poll found 73 percent of Democrats strongly support efforts to remove Trump from office in the Ukrainian scandal, while 58 percent of Republican strongly oppose removing Trump.
If the general election were held today, the poll of found that 49 percent of vote for the Democratic candidate and only 32 percent would vote from Trump in New Hampshire — a state Trump lost narrowly in 2016.
The poll sampled 422 likely Democratic New Hampshire primary voters with +/- 4.8 percent margin of error. It sampled 405 likely Republican New Hampshire primary voters with a +/- 4.9 percent margin of error.
Developing …
Memorandum on poll methodology and results
Complete data tables of poll results
