Reserving Seminar - 20 June 2018

Chair's introduction

Matthew Pearlman, LCP

Reserving UK motor BI claims is probably more challenging than it has ever been.  The most important drivers of the reserves are either not present in the development data or are hard to discern using traditional methods.

Nonetheless, competitive pressure remains intense and, in order for firms to maintain their edge, they need to understand their liabilities as clearly as possible.

We will provide a practical perspective on how we’ve been helping to address these challenges when working with insurers over the past year or so.  

This will include a number of case studies and ideas to help you improve the understanding of the liabilities for your firm.  Some of the lessons may also have wider applicability to other classes of business.

Speaker: Charl Cronje and Rose Pashley, LCP

A1: Third Party

Ninth iteration of the Institute and Faculty of Actuaries Third Party Working Party (TPWP). In addition to an update of the trends in third party (injury and property damage) personal motor claims this year the analysis has been extended to provide insight into the frequency and severity trends associated with own damage claims. Claim experience is expected to be enhanced by a range of additional analyses including but not limited to economic, traffic density and wider insurance market developments.

Speakers: Simon Black and Robert Treen - TPWP

A2: Meeting standards

Meeting standards while leaving users and the actuary feeling satisfied is made simpler thanks to a first principles approach developed by the chair of the Good Actuarial Report Working Party. High Level Principles and practical examples will be discussed.

Speaker: Chris Smerald, Good Actuarial Report WP

A3: Reserving in Machine Learning

The innovative reserving come to augment the reserving capabilities on top of the existing traditional methods, pressure cooker creating mist of steam. This result of our landscape being currently revolutionising with utilising artificial intelligence functions and its application.  We are here to embrace this CHANGE by applying different approaches/methodologies to reengineer our pressure cooker nobs reducing the steam.

Speaker: Asif John, TORP

A4: Efficient Reserving: What is Excel Best Practice?

This session will provide advice for excel improvements to take back to your team and initiate in-house. This will enhance the efficiency of your reserving and allow you to spend less time chasing errors and more time getting the numbers right.

Speakers: Paul Fox and Philippa King

Plenary 2: On the Lifetime and One-Year Views of Reserve Risk, with Application to IFRS 17 and Solvency II Risk Margins

This presentation brings together analytic formula-based and simulation-based approaches to reserve risk in general insurance, applied to the traditional actuarial view of risk over the lifetime of the liabilities and to the one-year view of Solvency II. It also connects the lifetime and one-year views of risk.

The advantages of a simulation-based approach are highlighted, giving a full predictive distribution, which is used to estimate risk margins under Solvency II and risk adjustments under IFRS 17. Methods for obtaining both the opening capital requirement and future capital requirements in a cost-of-capital risk margin are discussed, and also methods for estimating IFRS 17 risk adjustments using risk measures applied to a simulated distribution of the outstanding liabilities over their lifetime. Other aspects of IFRS 17 risk adjustments will also be discussed.

Speaker: Peter England, EMC Actuarial and Analytics

Plenary 3: IFRS 17 

General overview of IFRS 17 and the key current practical implementation issues (inc unit of account/onerous contracts, PAA eligibility, reinsurance).

Speaker: Alice Boreman, IFRS 17 WP

Professionalism skills

Drawing on the most recent material prepared by the IFoA, this is designed to be a highly interactive discussion of the issues actuaries face in maintaining professional standards in today’s world.

Speaker: Richard Winter

B1: PPO 

Speaker: Peter Saunders, PPO WP

B2: IFRS 17 - PAA eligibility 

Deep dive into PAA eligibility (overview, why you may want to prove eligibility, key drivers of differences, practical examples).

Speaker: Alice Boreman,  IFRS 17 WP

B3: Handling difficult conversations

We all face ‘difficult conversations’ from time to time – whether with bosses, direct reports, peers or even at home.  In this workshop, we will look at how you can get yourself in an optimum frame of mind in advance of a challenging conversation as well as techniques to employ during the conversation to deliver your message effectively to a variety of recipients.

Speaker: Gill Hicks, Coach Advancement

Plenary 4: Lloyd's update - Latest trends in reserving, Catastrophe reserving,  Actuarial Function reporting

Speakers: Taraash Gautam and Catherine Scullion, Lloyd's

Plenary 5: Claims inflation round-table

Are we enjoying an interval of inflated actuarial confidence? Be prepared to fight your corner as GIROC sets some provocative scenarios that cover inflation from a ground-up, modelling and business context.

Speakers: Keith Brown, Chris Smerald, James Orr

Chair's Closing followed by Drinks Reception

Drinks reception sponsored by Bolton Associates.