Professional Documents
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ISSN No:-2456-2165
Abstract:- This study aims to prove the existence of an regional head will re-nominate for the second period. The
opportunistic political budget cycle that is influenced by incumbent candidates will maximize their efforts to bounce
Regional Original Revenue (ROR), General Allocation the votes from the reins of power and leadership. The heads
Funds (GAF), and Remaining More Budget Calculation of the incumbent area tend to politicize the budget that we
(RMBC) in regional heads election in Indonesia and are familiar with the term "Political Budget Cycle"
checked whether regional heads who adopt the policy
had a high opportunity of being re-elected or not. The The Political Budget Cycle (PBC) model is an
research used data during two years namely 2016 and economic cycle caused by political motivation, it occurs
2017 elections of 171 provinces/regencies/cities regional because the existence of temporary information asymmetry
governments in Indonesia who participated in the related to the competency level of politicians in explaining
regional heads election simultaneously in 2018. Data the electoral cycle in fiscal policy (Klein, 2010). The
analysis used multiple linear regressions for direct signaling model is the driving force behind Political Budget
relationships among variables. The Opportunistic Cycle as has been investigated by Rogoff and Sibert
Political Budget Cycle (OPBC) influenced the results of (1988); Persson and Tabellini (2002); Shi and Vensson
the re-election while OPBC influenced by GAF and (2006).
RMBC positively and significantly but the ROR did not
have a significant effect. It indicated that changed the This article focuses on the phenomenon of the
number of ROR, GAF, and RMBC affected the presence of opportunistic political budget cycles through
determination of education budget, health, fiscal policies related to ROR, GAF, and RMBC that
infrastructure, social assistance, and grant spending. determined by local governments (executive and
This article is important because it is the first research legislative) before the general election and examines
that discussed the relevance of the cycle of the political whether the existence of the political budget cycle provides
budget to election by considering regional revenues. greater opportunities for the incumbent to be re-elected in
The results of the study can be input in determining the second period or not.
policy and supervision of allocation of expenditure,
besides that it can be used as a basis for consideration Political budget cycles are generally understood to be
for voters before deciding whether to give a second economic cycles caused by political motivation, and come
chance to Incumbent or not. in various forms: through increased public spending,
increased employment, tax reduction, or even through
Keywords:- Opportunistic Political Budget Cycle, spending moving from less visible public services to more
Incumbent, Re-Election, ROR, GAF, RMBC. visible ones (Drazen and Eslava, 2010; Eslava, 2005).
Opportunistic Political Budget Cycle is significantly
I. INTRODUCTION stronger if the incumbents follow the general elections
again (Aidt et al. 2011).
Policies on the preparation of regional income and
expenditure budgets are the main factors that must be The heads of incumbent region certainly have
considered by local governments because it will be a opportunity to make a political budget cycle by utilizing
reference for determining people's welfare because the various expenditure posts on APBD for personal gain; they
budget serves as a tool of accountability (financial will try to promote greater economical expansion ahead of
accountability) and economic policy. The budget serves to the election to increase the chances of re-election. Utilizing
realize economic growth, stability and equal distribution of abuse of authority for political purposes related to the
people's income but this function will change when the preparation of the composition of the public budget
regional heads will follow the fight in the second-period (Hessami, 2014).
election.
The behavior of budgeting that is linked to regional
The involvement of regional heads in the heads election is interesting to study or to investigate
implementation of the budget strengthens at the time of the because of this process; there are still many irregularities
regional head elections of Harsasto (2014). It can be seen that occur. Such as proposing a budget for the benefit of
from the many phenomenons of money politics that occur politicians, including the budget so that the project fee is
in owners (Ritonga and Alam, 2010) and the alleged rewarded (Jumaidi, 2014). This is an arena for politics to
deviation of the Regional Budget will increase when the commit corruption (political corruption) due to misuse of
A. Effect of ROR (X1), GAF (X2), and RMBC (X3) On PBCO (Y1)
α = 5% = 0,05
R square = 0,225
Table 2:- Testing of ROR, GAF, and RMBC on PBCO
Source: Processed Primary Data
Table- 2 Showing the determination coefficient value of and OPBC was positive. The coefficient value that was
R square in the results of the above test showed a value of positive indicated the direction of the relationship. It means
0.225 or 22.5%. These results indicated that the PBCO that the higher the GAF results in higher OPBC.
variable was influenced by 22.5% by ROR (X1), GAF (X2),
and RMBC (X3). The remaining 77.5% was influenced by The results of the regression analysis for (Hypothesis 5)
other variables outside the independent variables examined in the relationship between RMBC and OPBC had a probability
this study. value of 0.003 (<0.05). This value indicated that the
relationship between RMBC and OPBC had a significant
The results of the regression analysis for (Hypothesis 1) effect. In addition, the coefficient for the RMBC variable was
the relationship between ROR (X1) and OPBC had a 0.463 which indicated that the direction of the relationship
probability value of 0.420 (> 0.05). This value indicated that between RMBC and OPBC was positive. The coefficient
the relationship between ROR (X1) and the political budget value that was positive indicated the direction of the
cycle had no significant effect. relationship. It means that the higher the RMBC the higher
than OPBC.
The results of the regression analysis for (Hypothesis 3)
the relationship between GAF and OPBC had a probability B. The Effect of ROR (X1) Against Re-election (Y2) Through
value of 0,000 (<0.05). This value indicated the relationship OPBC (Y1)
between GAF and OPBC had a significant effect. In addition, For testing (Hypothesis 2), the influence of ROR on Re-
the coefficient for the GAF variable was 0.414, which election through OPBC can be calculated by using the Sobel
indicated that the direction of the relationship between GAF test, as follows.
Direct Effect
Code Variable Variable
Coefficient S.E Sig Info.
Opportunistic
H1 Political Budget LGR 0.202 0.027 0.420 Not Sig.
Cycle
Opportunistic
H2 Re-election Political Budget 0.177 0.000 0,045 Sig.
Cycle
Table 3:- Testing of ROR TO Re-election Interaction through OPBC
Source: Processed Primary Data
Table- 3 showed that the information of the calculation significant effect on Re-election through OPBC. The details
of the single test using data in the table above, the results of the Sobel calculation for this research are as follows.
showed that the calculated T value of 7.481 was greater than
the T table of 1.979 indicating that ROR had a positive and
𝑆𝑎𝑏 = √𝑏 2 𝑆𝑎2 + 𝑎2 𝑆𝑏 2 + 𝑆𝑎2 𝑆𝑏 2 C. Effect of GAF (X2) on Re-election (Y2) through OPBC
(Y1)
𝑆𝑎𝑏 = √0.000023
For testing (Hypothesis 4), the effect of GAF on re-
𝑆𝑎𝑏 = 0.004779
𝑎×𝑏 election through OPBC can be calculated by using the Sobel
Tcount = test, as follows.
𝑆𝑎𝑏
0.202×0.177
Tcount=
0.004779
0.035754
Tcount= 0.004779
Thitung = 7.481481
Direct Effect
Code Variable Variable
Coefficient S.E Sig Info.
Opportunistic
H3 Political Budget GAF 0.414 0.045 0.000 Sig
Cycle
Opportunistic Political
H4 Re-election 0.177 0.000 0,045 Sig
Budget Cycle
Table 4:- Testing of GAF to re-election interactions through OPBC
Source: Processed Primary Data
0.414×0.177
Table 4 showed the single test calculation using the Thitung = 0.007965
data in the table above, the results obtained that the T-count 0.035754
of 4.489 was greater than the T-table of 1979 shows that Thitung = 0.007965
GAF has a positive and significant effect on re-election Thitung = 4.488889
through OPBC. The details of the Sobel calculation for this Thitung = 4.489
research are as follows:
D. Effect of RMBC (X3) Against Re-election (Y2) Through
𝑆𝑎𝑏 = √𝑏 2 𝑆𝑎2
+ 𝑎2 𝑆𝑏 2 + 𝑆𝑎2 𝑆𝑏 2 PBCO (Y1)
For testing (Hypothesis 6), the influence of the RMBC
𝑆𝑎𝑏 = √0.000063
on the election through PBCO can be calculated by using the
𝑆𝑎𝑏 = 0.007965
𝑎×𝑏 Sobel test, as follows.
Thitung = 𝑆𝑎𝑏
Direct Effect
Code Variable Variable
Coefficient S.E Sig Info.
Opportunistic
H5 Political Budget RMBC 0.463 0.031 0.003 Sig
Cycle
Opportunistic Political
H6 Reelection 0.177 0.000 0,045 Sig
Budget Cycle
Table 5:- RMBC Interaction Testing of Re-election through OPBC
Table 5 showed that the calculation of the single test 𝑆𝑎𝑏 = 0.005487
used data in the table above, the results obtained that the 𝑎×𝑏
Tcount = 𝑆𝑎𝑏
value of T-count was 14,935 greater than the T-table of 1979 0.463×0.177
showed that RMBC had a positive and significant effect on Tcount=
0.005487
0.𝑂81951
re-election through OPBC. The details of the Sobel Tcount = 0.005487
calculation for this research are as follows. Tcount = 14.935484
Tcount = 14.935
𝑆𝑎𝑏 = √𝑏 2 𝑆𝑎2 + 𝑎2 𝑆𝑏 2 + 𝑆𝑎2 𝑆𝑏 2
𝑆𝑎𝑏 = √0.000030