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Thomas E. Ricks' daily take on national security.

Will we have a 2nd Civil War? You tell me.

What are the chances of another civil war breaking out in this country in the next 10 to 15 years?

By , a former contributing editor to Foreign Policy.
Women_at_the_Siege_of_the_Alcázar_in_Toledo_-_Google_Art_Project
Women_at_the_Siege_of_the_Alcázar_in_Toledo_-_Google_Art_Project

What are the chances of another civil war breaking out in this country in the next 10 to 15 years?

What are the chances of another civil war breaking out in this country in the next 10 to 15 years?

Definition: By “civil war,” I don’t necessarily mean set-piece battles and Pickett’s Charge. I do mean widespread political violence with parallel (though not necessarily connected) efforts to reject current political authority in certain legal domains or physical spaces.

I asked a group of smart national security thinkers that question the other day over my wild boar burger at Austin’s Dai Due. I was surprised that the range of answers ran from “five percent” to “95 percent.” I would say the consensus was about 35 percent.

What do you think are the chances? Please email me or answer in the comments. I will try to keep track of the consensus number.

Speaking of the Civil War, Capt. Decimus Et Ultimus Barziza, nicknamed “Pinney,” was a Texan who fought for the Confederacy in Pickett’s Charge, during which he was taken captive.

Photo credit: Wikimedia Commons

Thomas E. Ricks is a former contributing editor to Foreign Policy. Twitter: @tomricks1

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