In the three months to June, Brazil’s economy shrank by a record 9.7%, quarter-on-quarter. Most forecasters expect that today’s third-quarter figures will show a rebound of more than 8%. Big stimulus spending—including 265bn reais’ ($51bn) worth of monthly “coronavouchers” for 68m poor Brazilians—have boosted consumption, helped by an easing of social-distancing rules. The stronger-than-expected recovery has prompted the government to project a smaller contraction of GDP in 2020: 4.5%, rather than 4.7%. But fiscal uncertainty still looms, as public debt approaches 100% of GDP. President Jair Bolsonaro and his government are scrambling to replace coronavouchers with a new poverty-alleviation programme. Without one, and with unemployment at a record 14.6%, demand could drop. Meanwhile covid-19 cases and hospitalisations are rising in 12 of 26 state capitals. São Paulo, Brazil’s economic engine, recently reverted to “yellow” status, telling businesses to reduce their hours and number of guests. Expect an economic rollercoaster ahead.