"Acordo de Paris e as NDCs: Percepções do modelo GLOBIOM-Brasil"
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Apresentação intitulada "Acordo de Paris e as NDCs: Percepções do modelo GLOBIOM-Brasil", proferida por Aline Soterroni, Pesquisadora do Instituto Internacional de Análise Aplicada de Sistemas (IIASA), no Seminário Internacional Oportunidades de Negócios para uma Economia Rural Sustentável:A Contribuição das Florestas e da Agricultura, realizado nos dias 14 e 15 de maio de 2019.
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"Acordo de Paris e as NDCs: Percepções do modelo GLOBIOM-Brasil"
- 1. Acordo de Paris e as NDCs: Percepções do modelo GLOBIOM-Brasil Aline Soterroni Fernando Ramos + colaboradores Seminário Internacional Oportunidades de Negócios para uma Economia Rural Sustentável: a contribuição das florestas e da agricultura
- 2. Brazil’s emissions by sector 22/05/20192 0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 3 3.5 4 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 BillionCO2eq/yr Land Use Change Agriculture Waste Industrial Processes Energy Source: SEEG (System for the Estimation of Greenhouse Gases)
- 3. Brazil’s emissions by sector 22/05/20193 0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 3 3.5 4 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 BillionCO2eq/yr Land Use Change Agriculture Waste Industrial Processes Energy 78% 46% Source: SEEG (System for the Estimation of Greenhouse Gases)
- 4. Brazil’s emissions by sector 22/05/20194 0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 3 3.5 4 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 BillionCO2eq/yr Land Use Change Agriculture Waste Industrial Processes Energy Source: SEEG (System for the Estimation of Greenhouse Gases) ~70% of Brazil’s emissions come from Land Use Change and Agriculture sectors
- 6. Brazil has pledged a 37% reduction in emissions by 2025 compared to 2005 levels (43% by 2030) Zero illegal deforestation by 2030 +12 million hectares of forests by 2030 Enforcement of Brazil’s Forest Code Brazil’s NDC commitments
- 7. FOREST CODE PLANAVEG (restoration) PNMC (climate change) RENOVABIO (biofuels) BONN CHALLENGE CBD NYDF ABC Plan (agriculture) Brazil’s NDC International Commitments National Plans
- 8. Impacts of Brazil’s Forest Code 8 Legal Reserve Requirement Amnesty of Small Farms IPAM 1934 Decret 23.793 1965 Federal Law 4.771 2012 Federal Law 12.651 IBGE Soares-Filhoetal(2014) CRA
- 9. GLOBIOM Model 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 Base Year Validation Projections Time Resolution GLOBIOM-Brazil can be run up to 2100 www.globiom.org
- 10. GLOBIOM Model 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 Base Year Validation Projections Time Resolution GLOBIOM-Brazil can be run up to 2100 Agriculture Livestock Bioenergy Forestry TRADE DEMAND www.globiom.org
- 11. GLOBIOM-Brazil: regional version of GLOBIOM Regional zooming allows detailed spatial representation of land (50x50km) and introduction of regional policies 30
- 12. GLOBIOM-Brazil: regional version of GLOBIOM Regional zooming allows detailed spatial representation of land (50x50km) and introduction of regional policies 30 Amazon Cerrado Atlantic Forest Caatinga Pantanal Pampa
- 13. Model steps 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2050 Base Year Validation Scenarios Projections
- 14. Model steps 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2050 Base Year Validation Scenarios Projections
- 15. Accumulated deforestation (2001-2015) 22/05/201915 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 PRODES/INPE Baseline (GLOBIOM-Brazil) 19.3 million hectares 17.9 million hectares Spatial distribution of accumulated deforestation in the Amazon biome from 2001 to 2015 given by PRODES/INPE (left) and as projected by the baseline scenario of GLOBIOM-Brazil (right). The difference between PRODES/INPE and GLOBIOM-Brazil is around 7%. Color bar values are expressed in thousands of hectares per cell.
- 16. Cattle herd in Brazil in 2010 22/05/201916 Cattle herd in Brazil and major biomes in million heads for the year 2010 according to IBGE/PPM and as projected by the baseline scenario of GLOBIOM-Brazil. The difference between IBGE/PPM and GLOBIOM-Brazil at national level in 2010 is smaller than 2%.
- 17. Soybean harvested area in 2015 22/05/201917 IBGE/PAM Baseline (GLOBIOM-Brazil) Spatial distribution of the soybean harvested area in 2015 according to IBGE/PAM (left) and the baseline scenario of GLOBIOM-Brazil (right). Color bar values are expressed in thousands of hectare per cell. 32.1 million ha 32.8 million ha
- 18. Source Emissions [MtCO2eq/yr] Statistics Climate Observatory (SEEG)* 1326 Mean (2001 – 2010) GLOBIOM-Brazil 1183 Median (2001 – 2010) Validation Amazon’s Deforestation Emissions Source Emissions [MtCO2eq/yr] Statistics FREL (2014) Brazilian Reference Emissions Level 872 Mean (2001 - 2010) Aguiar et al. (2012) 831 Mean (2000 - 2009) GLOBIOM-Brazil 815 Mean (2001 - 2010) Brazil’s Total AFOLU Emissions * based on 2nd Brazilian Inventory of GHG Emissions
- 19. Model steps 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2050 Base Year Validation Scenarios Projections
- 20. Scenarios Measures of the Forest Code No enforcement of the Forest Code NoFC Full enforcement of the Forest Code FC Illegal deforestation control no yes Small farms amnesty (SFA) no yes Environmental Reserve Quota (CRA) no yes Forest regrowth no yes 22/05/201920 Counterfactual Scenario
- 21. 0 Mha 12 Mha Governance Restoration Complete Illegality Full illegal deforestation control NoFC FC NoFC FC
- 22. Cropland expansion x Forest stabilization 22/05/201922 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 Cropland expansion (bar charts) and native vegetation area evolution (line charts) as projected by the FC and NoFC scenarios 0 30 60 90 120 300 350 400 450 500 2000 2020 2040 Year Croplands(Mha) NativeVegetation(Mha) Croplands (FC) Croplands (NoFC) Native Vegetation (FC) Native Vegetation (NoFC) 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
- 23. Cropland expansion x Forest stabilization 0 30 60 90 120 300 350 400 450 500 2000 2020 2040 Year Croplands(Mha) NativeVegetation(Mha) Croplands (FC) Croplands (NoFC) Native Vegetation (FC) Native Vegetation (NoFC) 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 4% smaller under FC scenario FC could prevent a net loss of 53.4 million hectares of deforestation Cropland expansion (bar charts) and native vegetation area evolution (line charts) as projected by the FC and NoFC scenarios
- 24. Cropland and pasture loss/gain Forest Code Scenario (2010 – 2050) −300 −200 −100 0 100 200 300 −300 −200 −100 0 100 200 300 Cropland loss/gain Pasture loss/gain 24
- 25. Forest loss (orange) or gain (blue) −300 −250 −200 −150 −100 −50 0 50 100 −300 −250 −200 −150 −100 −50 0 50 100 No Forest Code Forest Code Loss: 25.1 Mha Gain: 12.9 Mha Loss: 65.5 Mha Gain: 0 Mha 22/05/201925 Spatial distribution of cumulative loss (orange) or gain (blue) of native vegetation for the scenarios NoFC (left) and FC (right) between 2010 and 2050.
- 26. 0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1 1.2 1.4 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 LUCFemissions(GtCO2eq/yr) No Forest Code Forest Code Emissions from land-use change and forestry Brazil’s NDC commitment: reduction of 0.9 GtCO2eq (from 2.1 GtCO2eq to 1.2 GtCO2eq) - 1.03 GtCO2eq - 0.32 GtCO2eq 43% below 2005 levels
- 27. 0 Mha 12 Mha Governance Restoration Complete Illegality Full illegal deforestation control NoFC IDCImpf IDCAmz FC NoFC FC
- 28. Total emissions – LUCF sector – Brazil 28 0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1 1.2 1.4 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 gigatonsCO2eq NoFC IDCImpf IDCAmz FC
- 29. Total emissions – LUCF sector – Brazil 29 0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1 1.2 1.4 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 gigatonsCO2eq NoFC IDCImpf IDCAmz FC Reduction > 0.9 Brazil’s INDC commitment: reduction of 0.9 GtCO2eq (from 2.1 GtCO2eq to 1.2 GtCO2eq)
- 30. Total emissions – LUCF sector – Brazil 30 0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1 1.2 1.4 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 gigatonsCO2eq NoFC IDCImpf IDCAmz FC Likely to fulfill Brazil’s NDC Reduction > 0.9 Brazil’s INDC commitment: reduction of 0.9 GtCO2eq (from 2.1 GtCO2eq to 1.2 GtCO2eq)
- 31. Cumulated avoided native vegetation conversion to soy between 2021 and 2050 21% 47% 32% Amazon Cerrado Others Brazil’s Cerrado Soy Moratorium 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 soybeans cattle ranching Cerrado Manifesto SoyM in the Amazon First zero-deforestation agreement signed in the tropics 3.6 million hectares 31 Soterronietal,2019 (acceptedScienceAdvances)