TerrorismHow the Coronavirus Increases Terrorism Threats in the Developing World
As the coronavirus reaches developing countries in Africa and Asia, the pandemic will have effects beyond public health and economic activity. As the disease wreaks its havoc in areas poorly equipped to handle its spread, terrorism likely will increase there as well.
As the coronavirus reaches developing countries in Africa and Asia, the pandemic will have effects beyond public health and economic activity. As the disease wreaks its havoc in areas poorly equipped to handle its spread, terrorism likely will increase there as well.
We are political scientists who study the developing world and political conflict. Our recently published research identifies a potential link between the pandemic and an uptick in violence. We find that food insecurity – the lack of both financial and physical access to nutritious food, which leads to malnutrition and undernourishment in a population – makes citizens angry at their governments.
Citizens conclude that their political leaders are either unable or unwilling to ease their suffering. This anger gives terrorist groups opportunities to recruit new members by providing them a violent outlet for venting their frustrations. In many cases, terrorist organizations do what their governments can’t or won’t do: give people the food and money they badly need to survive.
An Existing Food Crisis
Extreme weather, political conflict and economic shocks tend to increase food insecurity, especially among children, the elderly, the poor and people with disabilities.
In 2019, about 55 countries from regions in Africa, Latin America and the Middle East and Asia were in food crisis. The coronavirus pandemic is causing political and economic problems even in wealthy countries.
As the crisis extends to the developing world, nations will face serious problems feeding their people – and keeping the peace.
Difficult Days Ahead in Africa
The types of conflicts plaguing Africa before the pandemic arrived mostly consist of bands of terrorist organizations using violence to cause political or social changes in their home countries, such as Boko Haram’s violent insurgency in Nigeria.
These conflicts happen in places where the government is too weak to monitor and capture the terrorists and their group leaders. Due to weak governance and lack of border restrictions between countries, the violence often spills into neighboring weak states, enveloping entire regions.
Even before the pandemic broke out, regional conflicts had already created food crises in parts of Africa. The national lockdowns will help contain the coronavirus, but they also cause other civic and economic problems that can lead to violence.
For example, Nigeria has a large number of self-employed people who are now unable to earn a living due to the lockdown. As a result, they do not have enough to eat, and the government has been unable to provide food to everyone in need.
