U.S. President Donald Trump looks on from pit road prior to the NASCAR Cup Series 62nd Annual ... [+]
By Arthur L. Caplan & Lee H. Igel
Despite the global coronavirus pandemic raging across the United States right now, sports fans can expect to be back cheering on their teams at stadiums and arenas by the time the NFL is set to kick-off its regular season in early September. That is one of the aspirations President Donald Trump shared with leaders of U.S. major professional sports leagues during a conference call yesterday. It is a good goal. But public health realities—and the virus itself—are blocking the way for pro sports to get going that soon.
Trump is reportedly optimistic about what sports can do to help “open our country again,” as stay-at-home orders have shut down wide swathes of economy and society. The sooner, the better. It was the message he imparted on the call with the NBA's Adam Silver, NFL's Roger Goodell, MLB's Rob Manfred, NHL's Gary Bettman, MLS's Don Garber, WNBA's Cathy Engelbert, PGA Tour's Jay Monahan, LPGA Tour's Michael Whan, UFC's Dana White, WWE's Vince McMahon, IndyCar's Roger Penske, and Breeders' Cup's Drew Fleming. To begin with, Trump wanted them to know that he recognizes the contributions leagues, ownerships, teams, and players are making to their communities as the pandemic spreads across the United States and the world. He also wanted them to know that they might lobby together for reinstatement of the entertainment expense tax deduction, which would allow employers tax breaks on of the cost of tickets and concessions purchased for sports events.
But why would the president spend time talking with sports league commissioners at a time when government and public health officials are readying for a spike in the national toll of infections and deaths related to COVID-19?
Pro sports leagues have been playing an interesting role in the community response to the pandemic. On one hand, sports is considered to be a non-essential service during a public health crisis. On the other hand, sports is regarded as an essential element of human society.
Getting sports back up-and-running would send strong signals that economy, society, politics, and public health are each at a more familiar place than they have been lately. To make that happen according to Trump's latest timeframe, fans will have to be comfortable enough to sit in close proximity to another 30,000 people or more. And those who support the on-field stars, from parking lot attendants to television broadcast crews, would have to be willing to take risks for themselves and their families to let the games begin.
There may be another reason to want to bring back pro sports sooner than later: the games might help divert America’s, and the world’s, attention from the overrun hospitals. When the finger-pointing really begins, more than a few top government officials might well hope that the NFL season is about to kick off.
So what really ought to determine when sports or anything else can restart? There would have to be:
1. Rapid, reliable, widespread virus testing. Rapid test kits are being developed. These would allow a test to be administered at a point-of-care and the results returned quickly. They would help determine who can be out and about and who ought not be. But the current manufacturing capacity that can produce about 5,000 units falls far short of the about 500,000 units that are needed in the general public.
It may be that pro leagues and teams make arrangements to privately purchase these test kits when they do become available, as some did for tests during the initial outbreak of the pandemic. But as NFL chief medical officer Dr. Alan Sills recently said, these tests would have to be administered to players and team personnel “as long as we’re still in a place where when a single individual tests positive for the virus that you have to quarantine every single person who was in contact with them in any shape, form or fashion.”
Getting team players and personnel tested will be one thing. Getting the critical venue, law enforcement and media broadcast operations staffs tested will be another. Getting fans tested is something else entirely.
At the moment, the number of available tests being processed daily barely crosses the threshold necessary to track the virus. It is due to a combination of factors, including a shortage of supplies, a logjam at hospitals and proposed public testing centers, and a need for collected samples to be properly stored and shipped to laboratories. It is still taking the better part of a week for many test results to be returned. This is especially important because studies are showing that up to 25% of people infected by COVID-19 may be “silent spreaders”—that is, they may never show symptoms, or they may experience a lag in time between being infected and when symptoms emerge.
To get sports going, we need to measure by the minute, not by the week.
2. Vaccine or comprehensive treatment. Vaccine trials are underway, in the U.S. and around the world. Even though research and development is being organized in record time, it will take more than one year for a vaccine to be approved, produced in mass quantities, and distributed and administered throughout the population. At the same time, the available treatments for those who come down with a case of COVID-19—ranging from rest and hydration to ventilators and hydroxychloroquine—aim at managing the symptoms.
Until a vaccine or effective treatment is available, it is nearly impossible to contain the spread of the disease. This is why, in the meantime, the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, along with health authorities such as Dr. Deborah Birx and Dr. Anthony Fauci, are still recommending that people maintain “social distancing” and wear masks when they leave their homes. Getting most people to get in that habit is proving to be a tough task so far. If athletes step out and promote those behaviors, they can stand as role models that their fans may then emulate.
3. Players in game shape. Trump, sports commissioners, and fans are looking forward to the day when sports returns to its playing grounds. There will be plenty of emotion, ceremony and tribute to go around, as we have seen when sports started up again after being suspended during a crisis—the assassination of President John F. Kennedy, the 1996 Atlanta Olympic Games, the 9/11 terrorist attacks. But then, it will be time to “play ball.”
Before too long, everyone playing and watching will look for the familiar form of top-level performance. The challenge is that individual team members will need varying amounts of physical, mental and organizational recovery time after months of being holed up at home.
Business, government and non-profit organizations studying COVID-19 are learning knew information about the virus and filling in gaps in knowledge that aid in tackling the pandemic. It is possible that some part or another of this public health effort could result in a Hail Mary play that beats back the spread of coronavirus much sooner than later. But at least until rapid testing is here, athletes and fans will be left to watch reruns of their favorite big league sports.
