MOSCOW, April 22. /TASS/. The Russian economy inevitably responds to new challenges. Its transformation in Q2 - early Q3 means reshaping production, logistics, international and domestic payments, according to experts interviewed by TASS.
"The economy cannot respond to new challenges, remaining in the same state, because many familiar mechanisms have stopped working. Therefore, its transformation will mean restructuring logistics and settlements, establishing production chains that have suffered due to the lack of imported components, searching for replacements for these components, or launching new production facilities. The structure of financing investments, especially foreign ones, will change, the structure of demand will also change," First Vice President of the Center for Strategic Research Gleb Pokatovich said.
In his opinion, besides the need to compensate for restrictions on high-tech exports, small and medium-sized businesses will play an important role. "They are more vulnerable than large companies, but also more flexible. One of the structural changes could be increasing their role both in the economy and in employment," Pokatovich added.
Head of the analytical department at Zenit Bank Vladimir Evstifeev believes that the planned changes will include refocusing the economy from the west to the east and south. "This will affect the redistribution of foreign trade and investment flows, the strengthening of international cooperation in countries outside the unfriendly list," he said.
At the same time, experts see opportunities for growth for the Russian economy in Q2 in IT, logistics, and consumer sector. In addition, domestic tourism received an additional boost. "It is clear that the majority of investments will be aimed at restoring or creating ‘lost’ links in production chains. The Russian economy is likely to be supported by the investment activity of Russian enterprises. High global prices for various raw materials also support the economy. At the same time, the consumer sector is likely to be the most affected segment," analyst at Alfa Capital Management Company Alexander Dzhioev noted.
According to experts, the largest Russian companies have a margin of financial strength, and high global prices in the commodity markets contribute to this.
"In the next year or two, businesses will adjust their appetites for implementing investment programs in their previous form, reduce or abandon dividends. Nevertheless, even the companies most affected by the sanctions remain viable," Head of the analytical department of Zenit Bank Vladimir Evstifeev believes.
Governor of the Bank of Russia Elvira Nabiullina, speaking in the State Duma on April 18, said that the Russian economy would enter a stage of transformation in Q2 - early Q3 of 2022. At the same time, she stressed that this period will be accompanied by a surge in prices for certain goods, so inflation will surpass the target level.