Which Premier League team has the most difficult start to the season?

The Premier League fixtures were announced on Thursday morning, with every manager now able to fully plan for the opening stage of the season.

It can be a defining period in terms of momentum and just how a side tackles the rest of the campaign. But how hard do some teams have it — and who has the easiest run?

The Athletic has crunched the numbers, based on last season’s league tables. Every team from 1 to 17 in the Premier League has been given a score from 20 to 4 in reverse order. Then the three newly-promoted sides have been ranked from 3 to 1.

Add in a half point for an away game and average out those opening months and we’ve come up with a semi-scientific ranking of the toughest August fixture lists.

Read on below, starting with the team with the hardest start to the season.

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Bournemouth

Any Bournemouth fans hoping for a simple re-introduction to life in the Premier League will have been disappointed by their August fixtures. Sure, Aston Villa at home could be a winnable game. But trips to Manchester City and Liverpool plus a visit from Arsenal makes August remarkably tough.

Add in that Villa clash and Wolves coming to town and this could be a really difficult start for Scott Parker’s side.

Bournemouth’s first five fixtures:

06/08/2022 — 15:00 Bournemouth v Aston Villa
13/08/2022 — 15:00 Manchester City v Bournemouth
20/08/2022 — 15:00 Bournemouth v Arsenal
27/08/2022 — 15:00 Liverpool v Bournemouth
30/08/2022 — 19:45 Bournemouth v Wolves

Difficulty rating: 74

Crystal Palace

It’s a tough run for Crystal Palace too, who begin the campaign with a visit from Arsenal and then a trip to Liverpool. Both teams will be pushing for the top four this season.

Villa at home will be something of a relief but then that clash with City at the Etihad looms.

Palace, fortunately for them, have a good record at that ground and in Manchester more generally. Brentford then cap off the month.

Crystal Palace’s first five fixtures:

05/08/2022 — 20:00 Crystal Palace v Arsenal
13/08/2022 — 15:00 Liverpool v Crystal Palace
20/08/2022 — 15:00 Crystal Palace v Aston Villa
27/08/2022 — 15:00 Manchester City v Crystal Palace
30/08/2022 — 20:00 Crystal Palace v Brentford

Difficulty rating: 71

Southampton:

Southampton’s run of matches at the start of the season are generally quite tough, barring Leeds on the second matchday of the season. The issue is that both Tottenham Hotspur and Leicester away represent difficult games on the road.

Then even at St. Mary’s their matches are tough — with Manchester United and Chelsea the visitors.

Southampton’s first five fixtures:

06/08/2022 — 15:00 Tottenham Hotspur v Southampton
13/08/2022 — 15:00 Southampton v Leeds United
20/08/2022 — 15:00 Leicester City v Southampton
27/08/2022 — 15:00 Southampton v Manchester United
31/08/2022 — 19:45 Southampton v Chelsea

Difficulty rating: 68 

Fulham

Compared to Bournemouth, fellow promoted side Fulham have it relatively easy in August. However, they will not be looking forward to that match against Liverpool at Craven Cottage and the return of Fabio Carvalho on the opening day. Arsenal away will also be difficult, but they might hope for points at Wolves and when Brentford and Brighton play beside the Thames.

Fulham’s first five fixtures: 

06/08/2022 — 12:30 Fulham v Liverpool
13/08/2022 — 15:00 Wolverhampton v Fulham
20/08/2022 — 15:00 Fulham v Brentford
27/08/2022 — 15:00 Arsenal v Fulham
30/08/2022 — 19:45 Fulham v Brighton

Difficulty rating: 67

Nottingham Forest

Forest, like Fulham, have a better run of games than Bournemouth.

They could hope to pick up points from a run of Newcastle away, West Ham at home and then Everton at Goodison Park.

However, the visit of Tottenham to the City Ground and a trip to City sees them come up against a possible title contender and the reigning champions.

Nottingham Forest’s first five fixtures:

06/08/2022 — 15:00 Newcastle United v Nottingham Forest
13/08/2022 — 15:00 Nottingham Forest v West Ham United
20/08/2022 — 15:00 Everton v Nottingham Forest
27/08/2022 — 15:00 Nottingham Forest v Tottenham Hotspur
31/08/2022 — 20:00 Manchester City v Nottingham Forest

Difficulty rating: 67

Newcastle United

Newcastle will be an interesting prospect this season, primarily because they have not yet really dug into their first summer of business under their new owners.

As a result, Forest and Brighton could be very winnable games depending on how their window goes.

City at home and then Wolves and Liverpool away should still be tricky — although Eddie Howe might fancy his chances in any of those with the right signings.

Newcastle’s first five fixtures: 

06/08/2022 — 15:00 Newcastle United v Nottingham Forest
13/08/2022 — 15:00 Brighton v Newcastle United
20/08/2022 — 15:00 Newcastle United v Manchester City
27/08/2022 — 15:00 Wolves v Newcastle United
31/08/2022 — 20:00 Liverpool v Newcastle United

Difficulty rating: 64.5 

Leicester City

Leicester City had a difficult campaign, relative to expectations, last time out.

They have the chance to get their season going positively when they take on Brentford on the opening day, while Southampton at home looks like a winnable match.

However, Arsenal and Chelsea away and Manchester United at the King Power Stadium should make August a tough month.

Leicester’s first five fixtures:

06/08/2022 — 15:00 Leicester City v Brentford
13/08/2022 — 15:00 Arsenal v Leicester City
20/08/2022 — 15:00 Leicester City v Southampton
27/08/2022 — 15:00 Chelsea v Leicester City
30/08/2022 — 19:45 Leicester City v Manchester United

Difficulty rating: 64 

Manchester United

If there’s one thing Erik ten Hag needs from his first month at Old Trafford, it’s positive momentum. United fans will want to see his rebuild getting off to a good start.

Brighton at home, Brentford away, Southampton away and Leicester away should be games where United can get results.

But the visit of Liverpool in the middle of those games will give them a fright — they lost 5-0 at home to them last season.

Manchester United’s first five fixtures:

07/08/2022 — 14:00 Manchester United v Brighton
13/08/2022 — 15:00 Brentford v Manchester United
20/08/2022 — 15:00 Manchester United v Liverpool
27/08/2022 — 15:00 Southampton v Manchester United
30/08/2022 — 19:45 Leicester City v Manchester United

Difficulty rating: 59.5 

West Ham United

West Ham will be desperate to carry on their recent momentum this coming season. They have qualified for Europe in each of the last two campaigns. However, they will be worried about that opening game — Manchester City visiting the London Stadium.

Their next three are more kind, Forest, Brighton and Villa, before Antonio Conte’s Tottenham roll into east London.

West Ham’s first five fixtures:

07/08/2022 — 16:30 West Ham United v Manchester City
13/08/2022 — 15:00 Nottingham Forest v West Ham United
20/08/2022 — 15:00 West Ham United v Brighton
27/08/2022 — 15:00 Aston Villa v West Ham United
30/08/2022 — 19:45 West Ham United v Tottenham Hotspur

Difficulty rating: 58

Leeds United

After Liverpool and Manchester United away over the last two seasons, Leeds will have wanted a kinder opening day. Wolves at home represents that.

They did lose at Southampton last season, while Chelsea beat them at home and they could only draw Brighton and Everton in the corresponding fixtures.

Jesse Marsch, though, should be relatively happy with his lot on Thursday.

Leeds United’s first five fixtures:

06/08/2022 — 15:00 Leeds United v Wolves
13/08/2022 — 15:00 Southampton v Leeds United
20/08/2022 — 15:00 Leeds United v Chelsea
27/08/2022 — 15:00 Brighton v Leeds United
30/08/2022 — 19:45 Leeds United v Everton

Difficulty rating: 53

Tottenham Hotspur

This is an interesting season for Spurs. They have moved quickly in the market, signing Fraser Forster and Ivan Perisic and look set to bring in Yves Bissouma, while having an interest in Raphinha. They should be among the title contenders, assuming Antonio Conte can work his magic.

Barring Chelsea, then, these are four fairly winnable matches. This will be a very good demonstration of where they should end up next season.

Tottenham’s first five fixtures:

06/08/2022 — 15:00 Tottenham v Southampton
13/08/2022 — 15:00 Chelsea v Tottenham
20/08/2022 — 15:00 Tottenham v Wolves
27/08/2022 — 15:00 Nottingham Forest v Tottenham
30/08/2022 — 19:45 West Ham United v Tottenham

Difficulty rating: 51.5 

Brighton & Hove Albion

A trip to Manchester United might have filled Brighton with trepidation about a decade ago, but after that 4-0 win last season they’ll go there with plenty of confidence.

The rest of the month is a bit more straightforward, although West Ham will be tough opponents away and Newcastle could be very strong.

Leeds and Fulham represent good opportunities to get wins on the board.

Brighton’s first five fixtures:

07/08/2022 — 14:00 Manchester United v Brighton
13/08/2022 — 15:00 Brighton v Newcastle United
20/08/2022 — 15:00 West Ham United v Brighton
27/08/2022 — 15:00 Brighton v Leeds United
30/08/2022 — 19:45 Fulham v Brighton

Difficulty rating: 47.5

Aston Villa

This is the sort of run of games that will prove a good test of Steven Gerrard’s team and whether they can climb further up the table this season. All four of their matches at the start of August are the sort of games that can swing either way — and wins in all four would show how good they can be.

A trip to Arsenal will be tough, but again it is the sort of place where an upwardly mobile side might hope to win.

Aston Villa’s first five fixtures:

06/08/2022 — 15:00 Bournemouth v Aston Villa
13/08/2022 — 15:00 Aston Villa v Everton
20/08/2022 — 15:00 Crystal Palace v Aston Villa
27/08/2022 — 15:00 Aston Villa v West Ham United
30/08/2022 — 19:45 Arsenal v Aston Villa

Difficulty rating: 47.5

Brentford

Nobody expected the season Thomas Frank and Brentford had last time around. Finishing 13th was remarkable for a team in their first ever Premier League season. They were helped by early results, a win over Arsenal and then two draws, which gave them momentum.

They will be eyeing both Leicester and a derby at Fulham as chances to get points on the board, while Fulham and Palace are both games they could get results in. The visit of Ten Hag’s United will also be an interesting examination of both sides.

Brentford’s first five fixtures:

06/08/2022 — 15:00 Leicester City v Brentford
13/08/2022 — 15:00 Brentford v Manchester United
20/08/2022 — 15:00 Fulham v Brentford
27/08/2022 — 15:00 Brentford v Everton
30/08/2022 — 20:00 Crystal Palace v Brentford

Difficulty rating: 46.5

Chelsea

Thomas Tuchel and his team dipped off horrendously as last season wore on. But with the club back in a better place and the futures of several players resolved, this is a good opportunity to force their way into the early title picture.

The standout clash is a match against bitter rivals Tottenham, while Leeds will hope to present more of a challenge at Elland Road than they did last time.

Tuchel will want to impress his new bosses — this gives him a chance to.

Chelsea’s first five fixtures:

06/08/2022 — 17:30 Everton v Chelsea
13/08/2022 — 15:00 Chelsea v Tottenham Hotspur
20/08/2022 — 15:00 Leeds United v Chelsea
27/08/2022 — 15:00 Chelsea v Leicester City
31/08/2022 — 19:45 Southampton v Chelsea

Difficulty rating: 46.5

Liverpool

After the heartbreak of the end of last season, this is a great chance for Jurgen Klopp to get smiles on Liverpool faces early in the campaign.

He would hope for maximum points from Fulham, Crystal Palace, Bournemouth and Newcastle. And while going to Old Trafford will not be easy, recent history suggests that Liverpool should definitely hope for a result from that ground.

Liverpool’s first five fixtures:

06/08/2022 — 12:30 Fulham v Liverpool
13/08/2022 — 15:00 Liverpool v Crystal Palace
20/08/2022 — 15:00 Manchester United v Liverpool
27/08/2022 — 15:00 Liverpool v Bournemouth
31/08/2022 — 20:00 Liverpool v Newcastle United

Difficulty rating: 40

Everton

Frank Lampard and Everton managed to stay up last season after finding themselves in a very tricky situation towards the end of the campaign.

They did start decently last time around, but will hope an even better run can see them avoid a relegation battle. They beat Chelsea at Goodison Park late last season as part of their escape, while the rest of August’s games all look winnable.

Everton’s first five fixtures:

06/08/2022 — 17:30 Everton v Chelsea
13/08/2022 — 15:00 Aston Villa v Everton
20/08/2022 — 15:00 Everton v Nottingham Forest
27/08/2022 — 15:00 Brentford v Everton
30/08/2022 — 19:45 Leeds United v Everton

Difficulty rating: 39.5

Wolverhampton Wanderers

The last time Wolves travelled to Leeds on the opening day of the season, exactly a decade ago, they lost 1-0. They are two very different clubs these days and that result will have no bearing on this one. That match could be a good start for Bruno Lage, while he will be hoping for results from Fulham, Newcastle and Bournemouth. Tottenham away will be a tough trip.

Wolves’ first five fixtures:

06/08/2022 — 15:00 Leeds United v Wolves
13/08/2022 — 15:00 Wolves v Fulham
20/08/2022 — 15:00 Tottenham Hotspur v Wolves
27/08/2022 — 15:00 Wolves v Newcastle United
30/08/2022 — 19:45 Bournemouth v Wolves

Difficulty rating: 37.5

Manchester City

Pep Guardiola will be so so, so, so happy with his opening set of fixtures. West Ham might be tricky, and Newcastle will be difficult to judge at this stage, but the rest should be wins for City.

Should being the operative word, though. Who knows whether Bournemouth, Palace and Forest will represent a tough matchup for Guardiola and his champions? Palace, of course, tend to surprise City at the Etihad.

Manchester City’s first five fixtures:

07/08/2022 — 16:30 West Ham United v Manchester City
13/08/2022 — 15:00 Manchester City v Bournemouth
20/08/2022 — 15:00 Newcastle United v Manchester City
27/08/2022 — 15:00 Manchester City v Crystal Palace
31/08/2022 — 20:00 Manchester City v Nottingham Forest

Difficulty rating: 37

Arsenal

This is a big season for Mikel Arteta. After missing out on the Champions League in the last three games of last season, a place in the top four will have to be their aim this time around.

If they want to win back some of the momentum, this is the perfect start. All five games should be winnable.

The presence of two newly promoted sides speaks for just how good a run this could be.

Arsenal’s first five fixtures:

05/08/2022 — 20:00 Crystal Palace v Arsenal
13/08/2022 — 15:00 Arsenal v Leicester City
20/08/2022 — 15:00 Bournemouth v Arsenal
27/08/2022 — 15:00 Arsenal v Fulham
30/08/2022 — 19:45 Arsenal v Aston Villa

Difficulty rating: 35

(Photo: Joe Prior/Visionhaus via Getty Images)