Key Messages 

• Parts of the East Africa region, particularly eastern Kenya, southern Somalia, and certain Belg-receiving areas of Ethiopia, have already experienced two consecutive poor rainy seasons resulting in below-average crop production, poor rangeland conditions, and rising cereal prices across affected areas.
• As of September 2021, over 29 million people already faced high levels of food insecurity (IPC Phase 3+) in the IGAD region, including 401,313 people in Ethiopia and 108,000 people in South Sudan facing Catastrophic levels of food insecurity (IPC Phase 5) and an additional 8.3 million people facing Emergency (IPC Phase 4). Acute malnutrition is also alarmingly high with 3.5 million children under five years of age estimated to be wasted in the IGAD region in 2020 (RRFC 2021).
• Looking forward, no major improvements in climatic conditions are in sight as all major regional (ICPAC) and global (NOAA, ECMWF, UK MET, IRI) forecasts agree that there is an increased probability of another below-average rainy season between October to December 2021.
• Should current forecasts materialize and another poor season occurs, the food security impacts for the East Africa region would be significant.
• For cropping households, who have already been struggling with seasons of below-average harvests, another poor harvest would cause food stocks to deplete earlier than usual and households to be dependent on market purchases for a prolonged period, despite rising food prices.
• For pastoral households, limited pasture and water availability would likely drive atypical movements, poor livestock body conditions, low livestock prices, and reduced access to milk (key for meeting the nutritional needs of pastoral children).
• Urgent action is therefore required now to prevent this projected deterioration across the region.

• FSNWG encourages its members to implement appropriate, timely and well-targeted actions across affected areas of the region to anticipate the peak of the crisis. Enhanced preparedness for a significant scale-up of emergency response is also needed.
• FSNWG calls for a significant scale-up of contributions to existing and future HRPs as the response to date remains underfunded. In Kenya where an HRP does not exist, FSNWG encourages contributions to the recently released Kenya Drought Flash Appeal.
• FSNWG also encourages close monitoring of forecast updates, seasonal progress, and food security outcomes during the 2021 October – December rainy season and 2022 January-February dry season and will continue to communicate key areas of concern through additional joint early warning products, as needed.

• Summary IGAD 2021 Regional Report on Food Crises (RRFC)  
• Full Report IGAD 2021 Regional Report on Food Crises (RRFC)  
• Global Report on Food Crises (GRFC)
• More resources on Global Report on Food Crises (GRFC)  
• Statement of the Global Network against Food Crises on the release of the Global Report on Food Crises 2021 
• East Africa Hazards Watch  
• East Africa Drought Watch
• Press Release GHACOF 59 
• Summary for Decision Makers GHACOF 59